Open 82: Texas Justice Mafia (Game Over!) before 626

[The Fonz]

Vote: The Fonz

because Arthur Fonzerelli wasn't a brit.

Vote: dcorbe

It's Fonz

a

relli.

Now, I'd like everyone's opinion on the validity or otherwise of the strategy of splitting everyone into pairs, no lynching, and demanding that each player vig their opposite number.

(I'm still running the numbers here myself, but thought it could be interesting. One of my reasons for signing up for this was an interest in exploring the game theory. The other was because I want to vig Farside. )

[The Fonz]

Perfectly random.

The mafia insta-wins if two mafiosi are paired together, and the town insta-wins otherwise.

I've calculated the possibility of a town win as just over 70% using this strategy.

[The Fonz]

The math involved:

Take any one of the three mafiosi at random. There are eleven players he could be paired with. Two of the eleven (0.18 recurring) are his buddies. If he's paired with either, he wins; if not, we go to a second round.

If we have gone to a second round, the first mafioso has been paired with a vig. This leaves the second mafioso with a 1/9 chance of being paired with the third (we take out the first mafioso, the vig scumno1 is paired with, and scumn02 himself, which leaves nine potential partners, of whom one wins him the game, and eight cause him to lose).

So we have: 0.18 1st scum paired with buddy (mafia win)
0.81 we have a second round

(0.81*0.11111) = Probability, given first mafioso not paired with buddy, that the two remaining scum are paired = 0.09

(0.81*0.8888888) = probability no scum are paired at all = 0.73.

The first two together give us the odds of a scum win, which round to 27%
The last is the probability of a town win, which rounds to 73%

Now, I can see what the obvious objection here is: that's no fun. If we are going to do that, we might as well go with a random number generator, and allocate W/L based on that.

However, being part of the town requires me to do my upmost to fulfill my win condition, and i have a really hard time seeing how any other strategy can generate a higher expected town win %.

[The Fonz]

Texas Justice - Not really a game since 2008!

Just watch 'em add a scum roleblocker to the next iteration...

[The Fonz]

My connection will almost certainly give out before i get the chance to post the full results, but i make the circle method roughly twice as likely as the pairs method to produce a scum win.

[The Fonz]

No-one hammer until Tom gets back.

[The Fonz]

Bumping past locked games.

[The Fonz]

True, but you got any better ideas?

11 player game.

Pairs system, GONE.
Circle system determined to be not-that-good-anyway.

Problem solved.

Then the town could no-lynch and no-vig and force a draw. Still not very good.

No, because the scum would just kill them at night.

[The Fonz]

I was V/LA- put the kill in with some haste when i got back, and saw the deadline.

Was kinda hoping that the mob would give themselves away by bitching about the unfairness of the setup and save us actually having to use the multikill procedure...

still, I'm sure this game will make Pie very happy.