Mini 612 Akatsuki: The End

[Mastermind of Sin]

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (4) = 4

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Farside22

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote: Battousai

for being from a different manga/anime~

It's a good thing he doesn't recognize the base picture behind my avatar... >_>

As for you, Claus, it seems prudent that in these dangerous times, less should be done to aggravate each other on petty levels. We have more important things to deal with. The future of Akatsuki is at stake here, and all you care about is petty arguments?

[Mastermind of Sin]

I think it would be reasonable for us to agree not to use the assassinations. As SP pointed out, it's the scum's greatest advantage. I'd rather keep the decisions in the hands of the majority than in the hands of one person who may or may not be scum.

[Mastermind of Sin]

So is there anyone who does NOT agree to not use the assassinations? Let's just get that out of the way now. This is, of course, a point that can be rediscussed if we gain further info about the setup that indicates it to be a good thing to use them.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Bah! Damn you ABR for screwing up my master plan. Aye, second best is a town-directed assassination. Votes for assassination should be conducted in the form:

Ass: farside

...cuz it amuses me...

[Mastermind of Sin]

We should assassinate DGB.

Ass: DGB

<3

I've always wanted to do that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

bump past meme

[Mastermind of Sin]

prodded, busy, stuff.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Sorry L, must of missed that post:

So are the Akatsuki the scum or the town group?

The Akatsuki is a reunion of 12 top-level criminal ninjas who have left their village to help each other achieve their individual and collective goals. Unfortunately, there is dissension in their ranks; this game will represent the power struggle between the leadership of akatsuki, the various members, and the rebel faction.

You see, I've seen the shows and the Akatsuki are the "evil" faction of the Ninja World. So when I asked that question it was just out of curiousty of, are we taking out the Akatsuki or are we all Akatsuki (answer obv).

Now the answer the mod gave us, told us there was a split, but didn't tell us how many of us split, did they splitters form more than one group or anything like that. I was thinking, for a time, that it was possible for at least 2 scum groups and 1 town because the mod said "the power struggle between the leadership of

akatsuki

,

the various members

, and the

rebel faction

. I was thinking it might be possible that the leadership could have turned on the members (that's 1 scum group) the rebels have seen this and broke away (that's 2) and the majority town group is just gullible and are supporting the leadership who are secretly plotting against them.

Just so you know, from the flavor of later text in the game, I do think there are just two groups- the loyalists and the rebel faction.

Vote: Battousai

That slip is going to cost you.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Sleepy, don't you think that Claus would have waited for his scumbuddies to jump on his bandwagon and get Ashmite assassinated if he was scum? Also, your admittedly WIFOM point about Ashmite also applies to Claus. What did Claus gain by sticking his own neck out to kill Ashmite right away?

[Mastermind of Sin]

But if the majority had agreed to kill Ashmite, you wouldn't have known if his scumbuddies were on the wagon or not...

[Mastermind of Sin]

This is directed at Claus. What I'm finding scummy is your decision to kill Ashmite immediately. You didn't bother waiting for other people to respond. We have already talked quite a lot about how we should use the vig kill carefully. I know someone had already mentioned this as WIFOM, but would a scum really out themselves by killing a town so brazenly even after our discussions about it? I think at this point, Ashmite became an extremely easy target.

The scum could've just as easily hopped onto his bandwagon.

If you had waited, we would still have more information than we do now.

The only lurker in your lurker list that stands out to me is SSK for not having said anything.

Obviously, but you were the one that mentioned about his scumbuddies jumping on the bandwagon. I was merely pointing out a counter argument. Regardless, it would still provide us with more information in the form of how people voted. Any information is better than none.

Wait,

I'm

the one who brought up scum jumping on the bandwagon? What are you trying to pull here? I'm the one providing counterarguments. I'm currently undecided on Claus, but someone has to play Devil's Advocate, because there were plenty of holes in your logic against him.

Battousai, you seem to have missed the fact that my so-called "defense" of Claus was merely a rebuttal to the poor attack made upon him by SleepyPanda. Perhaps you were too hasty in finding a reason to OMGUS vote me? Overdefensive much?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Well, that was certainly an interesting turn of events...at least we know Claus isn't going to kill anyone else now.

Vote: Battousai

I think it's telling that he's trying to convince us of the possibility that the loyalists are a scumgroup. That kind of posts says to me that his alignment is not that of a loyalist, or he'd know they weren't a scumgroup.

Ass: Battousai

[Mastermind of Sin]

So are the Akatsuki the scum or the town group?

[Mastermind of Sin]

That wasn't asked before the game started. What the hell are you trying to pull? You asked that question 2 pages ago, in post 167, and I even quoted that post when I voted you. Pregame my ass.

[Mastermind of Sin]

God I love the assassination code I came up with. I laugh every time I see someone use it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Battousai needs to learn how to use the fucking quote function. Jesus...

Unvote, UnAss: Battousai

[Mastermind of Sin]

because you didn't know for sure. For a while I was thinking you might be a third-party neutral.

[Mastermind of Sin]

9) Don't quote mod PMs or do anything else that might compromise the integrity of the game.

Anyone who answers L's questions may find themselves being modkilled in short order. I wouldn't advise it.

L, I don't know how long you've been around mafiascum, but it's fairly common practice that trying to compare role pms through the types of questions you just asked is not only considered lame metagaming, but it also defies the point of playing the game in the first place. We don't allow that sort of crap on our site. At first, mods just started writing everyone's role pm differently to prevent this sort of idiotic ploy, but now they just modkill people that try to do something like this instead of playing the damn game. I'm disappointed in you.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ya Megatron, I didn't lie. Either you missed the whole thing I wrote or you haven't been reading the thread that much.

The reason I find MoS the scummiest is because he was grasping at things that wasn't there at the person who seemed suspicious to a majority. If you actually read the entire post I wrote, there is that question, but immediately under it is the ANSWER. To me, if he didn't notice that part then he has already made up his mind on whether I was scum or not and was looking for reasons. Townies find reasons and then decide whether people are scum.

How come you don't suspect Megatron for doing the exact same thing I did? It's an honest mistake, and you need to accept that your post was not clear at all, instead of calling us scum for misinterpreting it.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd like Tom to explain why myself and Battousai were he next choices for assassination after MafiaSSK.

[Mastermind of Sin]

n) Battousai.
First off, let me remind you, a vote or accusation against Battousai due to his questioning of the game mechanics or setup is not legitimate. Those now alive who had the hardest time not jumping all over Battousai for this are MoS, Megatron, and L. He simply was open to interpretation of the phrase "the Akatsuki, the followers, and the rebels." The followers could be assumed as either an appositive for Akatsuki or a separate entity from it, because the grammar is confusing. The Akatsuki could involve both the followers and the rebels, or it could involve the followers, or it could involve neither. The truth is that we are all Akatsuki, and that the usual "town" are the followers, the "mafia" are the rebels, and there seems to be at least one independent in Claus. Battousai suffered from a lot of harangue from the town because of this, but after all of my read throughs, he does not seem scummy because of this confusion at all. In fact, anyone who legitimately still believes that Battousai is scum should ask themselves why, and if it is because of this setup argument, then you should reasses the situation. I see that both Megatron and MoS have admitted to currently understanding the misinterpretation, though MoS seemed very determined to make Battousai suffer for it (#172, one liner accusation).

This is a misleading post. You're saying that I seemed "very determined", and you're quoting the very first post of my attack on Battousai. Your turn of phrase makes it sound like post 172 was part of a continuing attack on him, like he had posted some sort of defense and I'd stubbornly ignored it. That post was the first thing I'd said about suspecting Battousai, so I can hardly see how you can interpret it as you have.

n) MoS.
Was not very active for a while, and was extremely vehement against Battousai concerning the setup discussion. Post #172 by MoS seems to be especially dumb. I know that by "slip" MoS means Battousai's misunderstanding or inquiry into the setup, but MoS implied that Battousai was a third party or a scum party because of this slip. I see a very shallow correlation.

I fail to see what is "dumb" about 172, when I didn't even say anything in that post. I voted him and hadn't fully explained the vote yet, but you call it dumb. That makes no sense whatsoever. By "slip" I meant that I felt he had slipped up, that he had revealed himself as not protown. I feel like it was very obvious to those of us that are protown that the Akatsuki is the town, and the rebels are the scum. For him to ask that question implied to me that he did not have this information, which would make him scum or some third party.

Starting around #174, MoS had a scuffle with SleepyPanda (now SP) over Claus's kill of Ashmite, defending Claus's actions. That is neither respectable nor deplorable in my view, because although Ashmite flipped town and its sad that he died, what Claus did was arguably necessary to establish order. In post #206, MoS voted and assassination-voted Battousai STILL about set-up problems, only to unvote and unassassination-vote after hearing the explanation. Overall sort of scummy in my opinion.

I voted Battousai "STILL"???? What are you trying to pull? He hadn't adequately explained the situation yet, so OF COURSE I'm going to vote him. "only to unvote after hearing the explanation."???? What the hell does that mean? Are you saying that it was unreasonable or scummy of me to unvote once Battousai defended himself appropriately?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Question:
MOS, you own the game a good re-read and your position on each player. What does it bother you on Tom's scum list?

I just found it odd that he would have Battousai and myself as his top 2 suspects.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'd like Battousai to explain why he not only disregarded the voting system but also made a kill so early into the "hour". We just had a kill like 2 pages ago, and you killed someone already. This doesn't really sit well with me.

Suspicion list:

Scummy -

Battousai - I don't hold the whole alignment thing against him anymore, just to be clear. But that doesn't mean he's not suspicious. He hasn't done much ELSE besides talk about the setup and defend himself/omgus against me/Megatron. I'm also very unhappy with this post:

You missed mine, I voted MoS and req assassination for him also.

Voting deadline is coming up in 4 days, so I think we should narrow down to the people with votes on them: Myself, MafiaSSK, MoS, plus No Lynch. Of the three, who does everyone feel is most likely scum or should we go for a no lynch and just assassinate like always (I feel that we should at least lynch, that way in case the rebels have the kill power and it goes silent the loyalists will have the most say)? My votes on MoS cause that's who I feel is the scummiest.

It's always a subliminal strategy to try to narrow down the "allowed" suspects for voting. People will naturally gravitate towards vote leaders if they find them acceptable, but it is not acceptable to force people to vote for a limited list if they think someone else is scum and none of those people should die yet. It's a classic scum manipulation. Even with himself on the list, he puts himself up against 2 leading suspects for the town and tries to focus everyone's votes onto that group.

Possibly scummy -

Claus - His claim fits, but I'm still wary of him being scum that's playing us. At the very least we know he's NOT working for us. Got my eye on him.

Neutral -

andersonw - I almost forgot he was playing. He hasn't really said much, hasn't committed to any strong positions that would stick his neck out. Playing it safe as scum, or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell.

Possibly Town -

Megatron - Believe it or not, I think Megatron is probably town, and I'm not happy with the kill attempt on him. Megatron has strongly stated his feelings when he posted, something that scum are wary to do. He's committed to bad positions that were proved wrong, but he stuck by them while they seemed correct. That kind of conviction doesn't strike me as scum trying to manipulate people into following bad ideas.
Tom - The MafiaSSK kill gives some brownie points, but I think it was only a matter of time until MafiaSSK was going to die, so it's an easy bus. I know if I was scum and had the kill, I would've killed him as well.

Town -

L - I think he's been pretty helpful so far this game, and all his actions point to protown in my book

Vote, Ass: Battousai

[Mastermind of Sin]

My kill may not have gotten through, but it PROVES me to be a loyalist. Kisame, Itachi's partner and close ally in the manga was a loyalist. Itachi must be a loyalist, as Itachi wouldn't want to kill Kisame.

I don't think the flavor in the manga will match up exactly with the game. Otherwise one could make the argument that Itachi is one of the *most* likely to be a rebel, despite Kisame being a close ally.

[Mastermind of Sin]

L, you don't seem to understand that third-party roles are NOT protown. Given the fact that clever scum can easily hide behind third-party claims, it's valid to suspect them. Especially since Claus fucking

KILLED

four loyalists so far.

As for andersonw, he hadn't posted enough to be more than neutral at that time. With my top suspect dead, andersonw is bumped up to the possibly scummy list next to Claus. I could go for either one of their deaths right now, but Claus' claim is good enough to make me

Vote, Ass: andersonw

for now. I'd like to hear more out of him regarding his suspicions.

I also need to reevaluate my reads on L and Tom, because *if* there are two scum left + Claus as a neutral, there's only one scum group left that wouldn't include them (Megatron/Andersonw). Next time I reread I think I'm going to do some pairs analysis. At this point it's probably important that we all do that.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Players:

L
andersonw
Tom
Mastermind of Sin
Claus
Megatron

Possible scumpairs (for this exercise I'm going to assume we have 2 mafia left, and obviously I'm not going to analyze myself as a possible scum):

L/andersonw:

L had andersonw on his neutral list and then moved him to scummy for his vote on Claus.

andersonw called out L for pulling the win condition ploy even though he's supposed to be experienced. Puts L in the middle of his suspicion list.

Analysis: They've distanced a little bit, but not enough to make me think they couldn't be partners. The fact that they had each other in the neutral spots is a classic scum strategy.

L/Tom:

Called out GhostWriter as scum with MafiaSSK. Hasn't said much about Tom, but said he thinks Tom is town based on flavor of the role he thinks he has.

Tom wants L to explain why he asked the win condition questions if he is experienced. Lists L as one of three people who illegitimately attacked Battousai over his setup discussion. Otherwise, he's just given a summary of what L did and didn't really analyze it. Puts L tied for second on his scumdar.

Analysis: I'm wary of this scumpair if only because individually they both seem the least scummy of all the players. Interesting that L called out GW as scum but then called Tom town based on flavor alone, when I think we've established that flavor shouldn't be trusted to reveal alignment. I also think that Tom has L in a convenient position on his scumdar. There is one person ahead of L, and 2 other people tied that he can go after before having to put any real pressure on L if they are scum together.

L/Claus:

Thought Claus was town, supported the ashmite vig. Asked Claus if he had info on SleepyPanda when he killed SP. Uneasy about Claus' "I finally got scum" attitude. Believes Claus' claim, attacks anyone who thinks he might still be scum.

Claus questions L's belief that DGB's votes on farside were random. Suspicious of L for taking both sides in the farside/DGB debate and then claiming to have been less suspicious of farside after farside came up town. Later lists L as neutral because he's been a great contributer. Lists about 4-5 good points and 4-5 bad points.

Analysis: This scumpair could be very likely, because of L's automatic support of Claus' claim and Claus' gradual move of L from scummy to more protownish. It's clever to be more suspicious of someone early in the game and then fall back to make them look good.

L/Megatron:

Calls town vibes on Megatron. Likes Mega's agreement to have a majority vote, his attack on farside, and being vocal about using the vig.

Megatron gets town vibes from L for his case on SSK, and calls the game-breaking ploy a null tell, but doesn't say anything else about him.

Analysis: Definitely a scumpair possibility. They both think the other is protown and avoid saying much about each other.

andersonw/Tom:

andersonw lists Tom as protown, but hasn't really said anything else about GW/Tom.

Tom is unsure if anderson's defense of farside is good or bad. Doesn't like his wishy-washiness with Battousai. Lists anderson as tied for second on his scumdar.

Analysis: These two have kinda avoided each other, so I could see them as scumpartners.

andersonw/Claus:

andersonw wants Claus killed for the ashmite kill. Also doesn't want to rule out Claus as mafia after the neutral claim. Wants to lynch him to test the claim. Weird thing, though, is that when he made his suspicion list, he didn't actualy list Claus anywhere on it. However, he later states that he thinks Claus is not a rebel, b/c SSK attacked him slightly.

Claus didn't like anderson's defense of ashmite after the kill. Has town vibes on him, though. On reread, thinks anderson has been trying to play it safe and being opportunistic in his posting. Lists him as scummy.

Analysis: These two attacked each other too much to be scumpartners, imo. Their comments on each other seem like the genuine article. Unlikely scumpair.

andersonw/Megatron:

Supported Megatron in the alert discussion. Doesn't say anything more about Megatron until his suspicion list recently, where he lists Megatron as his top suspect. Thinks battousai is scummy for trying to quickly kill Megatron. Suspects Megatron for going "along with the flow" and fence-sitting regarding Claus.

Megatron thinks anderson is constructive and protown but doesn't understand why his suspicions suddenly changed so much. Doesn't say anything else about andersonw.

Analysis: They both haven't said much about each other, but they've also attacked each other a little bit. Could be distancing. I think it's possible they are scum together.

Tom/Claus:

Tom calls Claus an "obvious neutral", but claims he thinks Claus is still playing somewhat protown and wants to hear his thoughts. Thinks Claus' ashmite kill was "necessary to establish order". Puts Claus on the bottom of his scumlist, tied with himself.

Claus thinks GW seems ok, outside of his lurking. Applauds Tom's entrance kill. Argues with Tom over Battousai's setup discussion, but for different reasons than the others who suspected Batt. Puts Tom as his only protown person, but notes that the SSK kill was a null tell.

Analysis: I'm not sure I would trust the words of someone I believed was definitely not working towards the town's interests, but Tom seems to want Claus' input. I'm also wary of the fact that Tom ranked Claus equal with himself, as if he would be as willing to die as kill Claus, the claimed neutral. That strikes me as odd and possibly scummy. Claus has pretty much supported Tom for most of the game, so they could definitely be scumbuddies.

Tom/Megatron:

Tom doesn't have a good read on Megatron. Said a few things about him, but it's hard to interpret which parts he thought were good, and which were scummy.

Tom, can you explain this?

n) Megatron.
It is hard to get a good read on Megatron. Although he was one of those harrassing Battousai for the setup discussion, he also thought Claus was a townie -- meaning that he bought that Claus killed Pain to keep the law. Also, Megatron pushed to see SSK's "information" that would lead me to want to kill SSK pretty badly.

Lists Megatron as tied for second on his scumdar.

Megatron acknowledges that the SSK kill is a null tell, but he likes Tom's posting so far and doesn't seem to find him scummy.

Analysis: Megatron thinks Tom is town, and Tom thinks Megatron is scum. Possible bussing (especially since Tom would've already bussed MafiaSSK in this scenario) makes them slightly likely as a scumpair, but not too likely.

Claus/Megatron:

Claus got town vibes from Megatron. However, he later moved Megatron to his scummy list citing "looking for easy lynches", "early to join the farside lynch", and "ambivalent on my revenge lynch".

Megatron thinks Claus is neutral, but is afraid of being bullshitted. Supports the revenge kills b/c it polices the vig system.

Analysis: Claus is adding pressure to Megatron, and Megatron really hasn't said much about Claus. I don't think their interaction indicates a scumpair, but there isn't much to analyze.

=================================================

Note that the following does not take into account individual rankings on my scumdar.

List of scumpairs (most likely first):

Level 1: L/Claus, Tom/Claus, L/andersonw, andersonw/Megatron
Level 2: L/Megatron, andersonw/Tom, L/Tom
Level 3: Claus/Megatron
Level 4: Tom/Megatron
Level 5: andersonw/Claus

This list shows that my wariness of the protown-seeming people is right, because most of my top scumpairs have 1 person who I would have listed as protown on it. I think it's reasonable to believe that one of the scum is under the radar individually. That's why I wanted to look at people together in pairs.

I'm still happy with my vote on andersonw, since he's in 2 of the top scumpairs and one of the second level pairs, as well as being one of my top individual suspects. His death will really narrow down the suspects. If he's scum, it's not much help other than the fact that we've nabbed another scum (definitely worth it), but if he comes up town, that tells me that L or Tom is almost definitely scum, and we should be able to get rid of a scum before the town runs out of lynches/kills.

[Mastermind of Sin]

What am I supposed to respond to in 311? None of it is even addressed to me...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mod, what time does the deadline hit?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Thanks, Mod.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Umm, it says the date in the title of the thread? LoL

[Mastermind of Sin]

I was in the middle of making a post when Claus suddenly attacked Battousai, so yeah, this is just getting weird. The way I feel right now can be summed up by Tom's emoticon.

Anyways, this is what I was going to post:

battousai's quick attacking of megatron is making me second guess him, which also makes me second guess my other suspicions. Also, I wouldn't trust the flavor in an ABR game, so I don't believe that it confirms battousai at all. I still think he's marginally town though.

I already addressed this.

Thoughts and replies:
I'm a bit more confident that Claus is not a rebel, because after looking through MafiaSSK's posts, in post 157, he slightly attacks Claus.

I already addressed this, too.

The reasons that I found battousai town was the same reason I found farside to be town (i.e. They both seemed genuine in their actions).

I don't like his position during the Farside lynch (hey, I think she might be town... but only two days...)

For anyone who accuses me of this, I believe that this was an unconventional stance, since everyone else was attacking farside for her logic, so this could be considered as "sticking my neck out". I said that nothing could change in 2 days, because it was the truth, since everyone else seemed to be attacking farside (except for ghostwriter, who was barely posting). And for everyone, if you read some of my other games where I was town or mafia, I act the same way about being conservative in my actions.

I'm not quite sure what the point of this section is. It's very unclear.

andersonw seems constructive and pro-town, but has suddenly re-ordered his suspect list almost completely, and I can't seem to find anything to point out why.

Well, technically, I never did re-order my suspect list since I will admit to not posting most of my suspicions in the first place.

I never had a problem with this.

My main reason for suspecting Megatron is that he just sort of went along with the flow. Post 161 especially makes me jumpy, because he already said that he's slightly leaning towards Claus being town, but also says that "this is the second time Claus has come off a bit trigger-happy...", so he's not really taking a stance on Claus, which is pretty much like what everyone is attacking me for, except his is less "explainable", for lack of a better word.

I agree with this somewhat, but I stand by my earlier Megatron remarks.

--------------

Now, I'm probably going to have to do a re-read, because Claus is confusing me greatly. By the way,

Vote: Claus

Why?

[Mastermind of Sin]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

[Mastermind of Sin]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 17#1127017

For the second thing (I think Claus is leaning towards neutral), you didn't respond to it, you just stated it, but whatever, I've changed my mind about that.
Also, please respond to 333.

In the morning.

Since the deadline is soon, I'm thinking Claus is the best lynch for now because a) He's confirmed not-town and b) He managed to hit 4 townies with the revenge shot. Assuming there are 3 mafia, the probability of hitting all 4 town at the times he used the kill, if he chose randomly, is 20/99. That's pretty low, and including the fact that Claus is experienced and has a good scumdar, would bring the probability even lower (since he would be better at finding mafia).

Why would Claus, a claimed neutral, go out of his way to find scum with his kills? If all he had to do was kill three people, why would he bother searching for mafia at the time? You're acting like the fact that he hit 4 townies is evidence that he is more likely scum than neutral, when it wouldn't make any sense for a neutral role such as Claus's claim to act any different...

[Mastermind of Sin]

Mos: How do you know Claus is going out of his way to kill scum? So far all of his kills were loyalist who were acting scummy. Your right a neutral wouldn't act differently, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be scum.

Umm, did you not notice the fact that Claus is second on my scum-list, after yourself? I'm not trying to say Claus can't be scum. However, I'm not going to allow people to conclude that he's scum off faulty logic, not would I allow that to happen to anyone else. Claus' supposed objective was to survive long enough to kill 3 people. If he's going to find people easy to attack and get away with killing them, chances are those people will be town, not to mention that probability itself points to him hitting town all three times. The original argument itself is faulty, because statistically he would not hit scum with ANY of his kills.

I've been thinking, if we mislynch today we lose (if there's 2 scum it's 4 v 2). I say we do a no lynch to narrow down the field. What does everyone else think?

Unvote,Vote

: No Lynch

That's assuming there will be only one death tonight. On that matter, even, I'm not even sure what would happen after a lynch, because of the way the rest of the game is constructed.

Mod: What happens after we lynch?

[Mastermind of Sin]

So no lynching would leave us with the same number of people...we need to lynch if we want those numbers.

[Mastermind of Sin]

How do you know the rebel's don't have a kill of their own? So we must lynch in case the rebels use the vig kill as well.

Well here's all who are alive, I'll be playing as myself right now, because this is lylo, deadline will hit before anderson gets back, and I don't feel claus is the best bet for a rebel.

Could we get everyone to post a list, then lynch (or possibly vig if a loyalist has the kill and we are too many votes short at deadline) whoever is the most scummy to all of us? I give this a 3 point scale 3 for the scummiest person, 2 for second, and 1 for third.

Myself/AndersonW- not rebel
Megatron- very possible to be a rebel
Tom- low chance of being a rebel
L- very low chance of being a rebel
Claus- medium chance of being a rebel
Mastermind of Sin- very possible to be a rebel

i.e. Megatron (3) and MoS (3) most likely scum on my list, followed by Claus (1)

I wish I could believe that you have any reason for this other than the fact that we attacked the old you for something that was very much

your

fault...but I don't.

[Mastermind of Sin]

You haven't been reading very much, have you...

[Mastermind of Sin]

You mean L, not T?

[Mastermind of Sin]

MOS

293 -

He's committed to bad positions that were proved wrong, but he stuck by them while they seemed correct.

How is that pro-town?

1) Some of his positions were disproven by information that was not readily available or obvious at the time, so he couldn't be expected to have known they were bad positions.
2) It shows that he's willing to stick to his word when he believes he's right, instead of flip-flopping as the opportunities arise. Scum are less likely to do that, I think.

319 - Pair analysis:

While I think this is a good way to go analyzing this game in these last few days, I find some of your choices strange:

> You list me in a lot of your possibly scummy pairs. But in the same post you say you believe my claim. Can you explain this?

I said I believed your claim? If I did, I don't remember doing it. I believe my position regarding your claim was that it seems to make sense (as L has been adamant to point out), but it could easily be clever bullshit as well. I also listed you on my somewhat scummy list last time I did an individual scumdar.

> The Tom/L and Tom/Claus pairing seems desperate. What exactly do you see as scummy in Tom? It seems to me you want to keep him "in the game" as far as lynch targets go for as long as possible, while I see him as pretty pro-town. Do you have a case against Tom?

Individually, I don't find Tom that scummy (besides questions that I asked of him in my pair-wise analysis). But I also said the same thing about L. With the people currently alive, that leaves me with only 3 possibilities. Unless I'm willing to believe that 2 of Megatron, Claus, and andersonw are DEFINITELY scum, I need to accept the possibility that one of the scum is playing *well* (not that surprising), and that I didn't catch them yet. So I looked for pair-wise interactions that could indicate a scumgroup, and found several interactions that could indicate Tom-scum. So I'm currently torn between my innocent read on him individually and the possibility that he's scum with someone else. Either way, he's not on the top of my lynch/assassination list, because I still find him less likely than most people.

[Mastermind of Sin]

- L

, what is your case on MoS? I have looked through your posts, and the only time I see you directly accuse him is on post 17, where you say that he is ambivalent on Anderson_w when he should be accusing him.

Part of the reasoning is the applicants of Claus is bad for killing four loyalists. Mastermind of Sin ignored why Claus killed them, and my post explaining why Claus killed them which equates to a weak case. The same post I believe was ignored.

Did you ignore the part where I agreed with the reason for killing them? If I *really* thought Claus had completely bad reasoning to kill 4 loyalists, do you think there is any way he would NOT be on the top of my scumlist by a mile?

andersonw was neutral on mastermind of sin's list, so Claus was 'scummier'. Battousai v1 flipped town, and now that means andersonw is "bumped up" the list as Mastermind of Sin said. Even though I don't believe andersonw said anything new that would cause that aside the weak-vote on Claus. Instead of voting Claus, Mastermind of Sin votes andersonw. That doesn't make sense with Mastermind of Sin's list.

anderson moved up based on process of elimination. With battousai, my top suspect, flipping town, anderson's previous actions made him a little more likely to be scum. Claus still has benefit of the doubt because of his claim, so he's not my #1 suspect.

Which said Claus was scummier, and andersonw was a neutral, Mastermind of Sin even mentioned not remembering andersonw was playing. Quotes below.

"Neutral -

andersonw - I almost forgot he was playing. He hasn't really said much,

hasn't committed to any strong positions that would stick his neck out.

Playing it safe as scum, or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell.

Megatron - Believe it or not, I think Megatron is probably town, and I'm not happy with the kill attempt on him.

Megatron has strongly stated his feelings when he posted, something that scum are wary to do

"

andersonw is neutral, for not saying much, not committing strongly to positions. The ending bugs me, "Playing it safe as scum or just an inactive townie? Only time will tell." Time will tell? But that's not the point. Note why Megatron is "probably town" to Mastermind of Sin. He's strongly stating his feelings when he posts. Something scum are wary to do. Like andersonw?

Uhh, yes? I'm not sure what your point is here. andersonw has not stuck his neck out on anything so far, and so I felt he could be scum playing it safe...that's why he's on my scumlist...it sounds here like you're agreeing with me L, but this is supposed to be your case about why I am scum...can you explain how this makes me scum?

-

bonus: do you think Anderson and MOS are a scumpair, or do you think they are an "either one or the other" case of scum?

Yes, I believe they're a scum-pair. It doesn't seem they're able to get at other people, so they're voting each other. Besides both of them being the scummiest post-wise. Flavor would dictate to me, after checking and re-checking, taking a coffee break and checking again that they're the last akatsuki pair. Deviating knowledge of who I am, the dead are, and those alive who have had flavor disclosed.

I don't know who my character's partner is in the manga. I'm too lazy to look it up...

I just remembered, I find Battousai's "What if the rebels have a kill?" idea oddly suspicious. No where does it say or suggest that rebels have a kill they make between meetings. The weird "lynching for numbers" thing, didn't make sense to me either.

exactly.

[Mastermind of Sin]

MOS- In the actual Akatsuki, the only real parter was Kisame and Sasuke's older brother. But we all know that the flavor isn't all there as Battousai v1 was Kakashi, very anti-akatuski but was not a rebel.

Which is why I don't like to rely on flavor to tell me who is town and who isn't...

Exactly? I don't like the fact that you quote other people's posts and say things like Exactly or don't go into much detail. Why do you feel the same way as L?

Uhh, try...because it's what I've been saying all along? I didn't go into detail because I'd already explained my position before L even agreed with me on it.

Also, concerning L's post about you. I think he meant he found it suspicious that you would say Megatron and Anderson are neutrals for opposite reasons. That's how I read it as.

That's not what I was doing, though. anderson's lack of contact and unwillingness to stick his neck out were

scumtells

against him. However, i didn't have anything ELSE to hold against him, so my initial position was to wait and see how things progressed before I could get more than a neutral read. Megatron's willingness to commit to a position was a

towntell

for me, so it balanced out his other actions to make me think he was more likely town at that time.

Does that make sense to you, L?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Uhh, try...because it's what I've been saying all along? I didn't go into detail because I'd already explained my position before L even agreed with me on it.

Well could you at least explain it again or tell me what post it was in, because I can't find anything that states that when I said what if the rebels have a kill you found it odd or the lynghing for numbers not making sense. The only thing I found was[

I've been thinking, if we mislynch today we lose (if there's 2 scum it's 4 v 2). I say we do a no lynch to narrow down the field. What does everyone else think?

Unvote,Vote

: No Lynch

That's assuming there will be only one death tonight. On that matter, even, I'm not even sure what would happen after a lynch, because of the way the rest of the game is constructed.

Mod: What happens after we lynch?

So no lynching would leave us with the same number of people...we need to lynch if we want those numbers.

I wish I could believe that you have any reason for this other than the fact that we attacked the old you for something that was very much your fault...but I don't.

Which was basically, I discredit anything you say that implicates me or Megatron as scum.

Umm, hardly. That's a very misleading interpretation. You called me scum without ever actually presenting any reasoning to support your claim. If you had, I wouldn't have been forced to conclude that it was an OMGUS vote.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Vote:, Ass: Battousai2

As per my case during the previous meeting.

[Mastermind of Sin]

My scumlist:

Level 1) L, Megatron, Claus
LEvel 2) Tom

My scumpairings from before that included the three non-Claus players were (with the other pairs removed):

Level 1) L/Megatron, L/Tom
Level 3) Tom/Megatron

Claus-pairings:

Level 1) Tom/Claus
Level 2) L/Claus
Level 3) Megatron/Claus

I find the Tom/Megatron pair very unlikely, as I pointed out earlier, so pairwise comparison leads me to believe that L is scum. However, Megatron's play has been individually scummier than L's, so that ties them on my scumlist. I also think an L/Claus pair is more likely than a Megatron/Claus pair (very unlikely), so I'd lean towards an L lynch right now, as the common link between all three other possible scum. The L/Megatron pair would be my best bet at this time.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Well at this point, either Megatron is mafia or the mafia will quicklynch him anyways.

Vote: Megatron

Claus, please hammer him so the town has a chance to win.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I actually had the kill and was going to use it on Battousai the first meeting, but the deadline came at midnight on the day of the deadline, way earlier than we expected.

Claus is amazing, that claim kicked ass.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Damn. If Tom didn't vote, I would have come in here and killed Mastermind of Sin. I set my alarm for 8 but got out at 11, I woke up and took a quick shower. I debated if I should have breakfast or not just to get here faster. If I actually woke up at 8am like I planned, this wouldn't have happened. Mastermind of Sin didn't even have alerts...

Uhh, actually I had 3 alerts, and I was going to put 1 on each player. I forgot to put alerts for Day 1 though, so anyone could've killed me the first day.

I did have Mastermind of Sin pegged as Kakuzu though, but I had "Tsunade" pegged as Hidan. I was sure Tom was Konan. "Shred to pieces", Konan works with making herself into paper. Konan is not rebel. So Tom and I were cleared. Honestly, regardless of what Battousai flipped, it made sense to kill Mastermind of Sin. Then, I would have actually probably killed Claus. Because if Battousai wasn't rebel, he had to be in some weird way.

How did you peg me as Kakuzu? This should be good...

What barely makes me feel better was that I constantly, constantly asked myself what if Claus wasn't neutral. I examined it, and the claim made so much sense. 10 Akatsuki not counting Orochimaru, two open slots...Kakashi and Naruto.

Also, Albert didn't say I was killed if I recall, and I still have the kill...

ATTACK: Tom

*Sigh* Mastermind of Sin's "Oh well, might as well vote Megatron" post sealed my suspicions too...course I didn't finish reading yet...

Yea well I just did that because I knew the game was over at that point.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Ah, that makes sense.

Well it's basically luck that I had you pegged as Kakuzu. Tsunade and Orochimaru were not in the set-up I had in mind.

When there were six alive, I started checking who people were. I knew I was Itachi, and I was sure Tom was Konan. Claus was Zetsu, Megatron's flavor "exploded into pieces", seemed like Deidara. Deidara eats exploding clay as his set of attacks.

You and andersonw were left, as were Kakuzu and Hidan. Which led me to believe you were Kakuzu and andersonw was Hidan.

Ah, ok. I was trying to figure out how you knew who I was when I couldn't even have told you without looking up my role pm...lol

We had some safe claims to use, but I never saw a reason to bother, especially since no one ever made me claim. I didn't think you could really deduce who was scum based on their roles, because it was too much WIFOM.