Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Kagami]

hi.

[Kagami]

I don't know about that. I'm usually pretty quick and I have about 30m right that I am devoting solely to this game.

[Kagami]

I'm liking implosion and I'm not overly concerned with Hito's alignment today

[Kagami]

I think this is nice ceph

[Kagami]

I think pine is fine outside of his townread on something_smart. I'd rather lynch elsewhere.

[Kagami]

because of the 25x series?

[Kagami]

Not someone I would dayvig.

[Kagami]

I would be ok with dayvigging attractive women if I thought they were scum.

[Kagami]

I see what you [pine] are saying with the 25x thing, but I don't really think the notion that scum wouldn't defend an "easy target" necessarily outweighs that it's a fairly easy "pro-town" position to have.

[Kagami]

I think it's bizarre that LLD didn't choose N1 Gun.

[Kagami]

(which doesn't mean much, but I thought she'd be in the same place as I would be if I got to choose my status)

[Kagami]

Alisae's death is probably more related to her being a universal townread while dodging likely n1 roses than any particular scumread.

[Kagami]

Unless he's replaced soon, cyan is the best lynch by far.

[Kagami]

I think you should extract a N3 / non-N3 claim from someone you don't like.

[Kagami]

Ok, I agree with hito's point.

[Kagami]

re 555 and 559 specifically

[Kagami]

but it just seems so stupid -_-

[Kagami]

tsk tsk.

[Kagami]

So since you're here and still voting Pine, ceph, what are the circumstances under which scum-Pine derives any benefit from this?

Hito is wrong that there's some world in which scum-pine lives, he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC.

What are the odds that the town gun is N3+ (which is a very foolish choice)?

[Kagami]

So no, hito, I'm against powering through a lynch, though I recognize that 555 and 559 do not agree with the claim in any rational sense.

[Kagami]

I just want to wait for a CC.

[Kagami]

No CC is definitive green....

[Kagami]

-_-

oops

I thought we had 1 gun.

[Kagami]

ok, yes 1 gun

[Kagami]

It's LLD and Hito.

[Kagami]

I don't really care about order since LLD just used her shot.

[Kagami]

What other shot? Hito is likely N1 rose.

[Kagami]

Didn't you have to choose before alignments were determined?

[Kagami]

Ok, order matters then.

[Kagami]

Meh, it's reasonable to expect that strong players would have chosen N1 rose.

[Kagami]

I question the game's balance given scum get to pick post-alignment, but shrug.

[Kagami]

Implosion, things are solid to the point that getting bogged down in fluffy stuff is about the only path to a loss here.

As more and more people posted without CCing Pine, LLD and hito became more, not less, interested in seeing the lynch go through.

At the time of Pine's hammer, every single player except cyanjet had posted and not CCed, so there was no informational loss to waiting anyway. If Cyanjet had continued to be absent, we would ask for him to be replaced and the Day would be extended; FG would have likely extended the day due to my replace-in anyway if it had been requested. There is also no world where Pine somehow lasts more than an hour or two if he gets CCed.

There's are times when you should just stick to the fundamentals of mafia: people who are aiming to lynch someone who is likely to become confirmed town are a lot more likely to be scum than those trying to resist it. Everyone here, except maybe cyan, has played enough mafia games on this site to know that "mishandled" claims and clumsy posts happen pretty often and are not some kind of magic bullet that overrides a mod-provided innocent.

Also, while less concrete than the above, I don't see town-LLD choosing Rose.

[Kagami]

I hadn't really thought much of it at the time as I was about to be out for the night, but I can recognize the possible interpretation that it was some kind of stupid sort of CC.

If I had a very low opinion of your town plan, that might be a relevant defense, but it really isn't. A competent player does not lynch confirmed town out of some sense of impatience or heaven knows what else and then express pride over having done so.

[Kagami]

your town play*

and directed at hito.

[Kagami]

No, he essentially claimed stupid.

Ceph also had the opportunity to unvote, and I'm quite disappointed he didn't.

[Kagami]

Pop's L-1 did not prompt you to hammer, it was S_S's "I'm not CCing"

[Kagami]

And I'd wager a lot of *angry cat noises* in the PT

[Kagami]

Alright, I can see why this game feels so stall-y.

The lynch today is LLD, and that's not even a matter of opinion or something. There's necessarily scum in {LLD, s_s, and cyan}, so there's no reason s_s or cyan would move their vote unless they suddenly decide the other is scum.

S_s and cyan are probably both town, and I'm ok with losing if they are.

I don't mind hashing out the rest tomorrow if there's going to be a bit more energy following the scumflip. The only thing that isn't really supporting hito-scum here is that implosion makes a lot more sense as a NK than either pops or ceph.

[Kagami]

VOTE: LLD

[Kagami]

L-1

[Kagami]

-____________________-

[Kagami]

Ok, I am now actually reading the thread since no one has much to say.

I see xyzzy's sin was that he voted for scum. Good times.

[Kagami]

Opening comments are so silly.

When there is only one town gun, the first thing you do is sort out which players are most likely to choose gun, because those players are far more likely to be scum than town a posteriori.

LLD really shouldn't have made it past day 1. You think she'd have gone for a low chance of dodging a night kill over being able to kill someone?

[Kagami]

I mean if you're town and LLD is scum you probably don't make it to tomorrow, so let's hash it out now.

I'm about to head to bed, but pretending that there's a world where LLD is not scum is pretty silly at this point.

Given the positions players have taken, I think it's not terribly unlikely I survive. I have some thoughts from a reread, but those are mostly fluffy and something I'd weigh over flips and setup.

My opinions on cyan and s_s changed with the introduction of new evidence. The suggestion that cyan was a good lynch was under the belief that mafia were reasonably likely not to be Guns.

So far you've done little to address the night kills. Ceph can vaguely be written off as a universal town-read, but why does pops die there?

[Kagami]

wait a minute Kagami if you thought players picked gun/rose before alignment why in the world would you think that anyone would ever pick rose instead of gun.

Because most players end up being town and would pick their pro-town choice, I suppose? I don't think 8 townies picking rose is a likely outcome a priori either, but why would you care about an prior when you start with the outcome?

[Kagami]

s_s and cyan are town, there is no point throwing shade in that direction.

LLD doesn't request to be bussed by either of them.

[Kagami]

Oo, mastin gave me my title back.

[Kagami]

This is a message for Implosion, S_S, and Cyan, if he can be bothered to show up.

Spoiler: No scum allowed

Ok folks,

I think you're likely town, though I'm not really sure since the NKs kind of point toward one you, but that doesn't really matter. Even if Hito is town here, he's doing everything in his power to help out the scumteam, and I doubt we can beat scum + honorary scum tomorrow. Thus I encourage you all to join team sanity. First step towards membership is to start posting, because only being able to interact with scum makes me sad.

Let's review the gamestate:

Firstly, LLD is obviously scum. By virtue of the initial wagon, there is necessarily scum in {S_S, cyan, LLD}. I continue to be of the mind that the Pine lynch just doesn't happen without substantial scum support, hence why I didn't really have any fear of S_S + cyan and added my vote. I have no idea why you aren't adding your vote to the pile, Implosion; it looks like the scum agenda is to sow enough doubt that town can't put together a unanimous vote.

Now, for Hito. Firstly, his iso is the most anti-town thing you'll ever read. If he were town, the only vote he's placed on a potential scum is the implosion vote in 150. He hammers both wagons on players who really did nothing wrong. He hammers xyzzy with an "I'm off!" and then conspiciously does the same to pine, but where on the xyzzy lynch we probably actually wasn't likely to get to the thread before deadline in the pine lynch is that there's a full 24 hours left. Why be "goodnight, fam" with a freaking hammer? Was he going into hibernation? There was a claim that can be sorted out, and there was almost certainly the ability to extend the day. Hito doesn't pursue any of that, he wants pine dead and fast.

He's tried to draw equivalences between himself and other members of the wagon which are completely absurd since the other members of the wagon ~didn't hammer~. Even pops L-1 vote, which was profoundly stupid, was not a hammer. Hammering is very different from ordinary voting, because it causes the player to become dead, which is bad if that player is town, and worse still if that player is shortly to be confirmed town. Unless you're scum, then hammering confirmed town is pretty great.

Now he's dragging the day out while trying to sow doubt on the towniness of those voting LLD. While protecting her, he's simultaneously trying to tie my alignment to hers, which makes absolutely no sense if he's town. "How did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?" is a particularly transparent instance of this.

So plz implosion specifically, come in here and vote LLD and/or chat. If one of you guys is concerned about my alignment, I'd be happy to address those concerns while deriding your poor judgment.

[Kagami]

@FG: Please prod cyan and begin countdown to replace

[Kagami]

Because two people didn't die night 1?

I didn't "KNOW" she's not N1 gun, obviously, but it was a pretty good bet she wasn't. Just like every question you've asked me "in good faith," you've added nonsense to it in order to posture aggressively.

[Kagami]

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

I have reviewed and come to the conclusion that maybe, just maybe, you have absolutely no idea how this setup works, since none of this really makes sense (especially with your clarification).

In this setup, GUN is a role that is like suicide bomber, except you get to keep your voice, vote, and your identity doesn't get revealed. I.e, it is an amazing and incredibly powerful role.

ROSE is garbage. It is a much, much, much worse 1-shot bulletproof, which is already a mediocre role. You pick rose because you're not confident in your scumhunting, because you're really afraid of being NKed N1, or because, well, someone has to do it. This is not to dodge a vig, unless there was some time pre-game where players could coordinate choices, and unless you are the god of scumhunters, you shouldn't expect to dodge a scum kill with this.

I haven't bothered to do the roll-out to sort out the nash equilibrium on role choice, but my guess would be you want to pick some kind of rose about 35% as town, and scum picks double gun most of the time.

At the time I remarked about LLD not being N1 gun, I hadn't fully digested the setup, but it was pretty clear that picking gun was better than rose and that an 8 rose town was highly irregular. Of all the players I expected to prefer being able to killing anyone they like to a small chance to dodge a NK, LLD stuck out in my mind as exceptionally unlikely to go for the rose. I realized much later that anyone who would be especially likely to choose gun as town was substantially more likely to be scum, and that this really should have been sussed out D1.

The only difference that getting alignment first really makes is that it more or less guarantees that scum go double gun. I was initially entertaining cyan as more of a policy lynch than anything and thought the pine wagon was unwarranted, but would not have felt if I had been aware there was probably only one mislynch available.

[Kagami]

I will go into one thing off the bat while I'm thinking about it, however.

Kagami, how sure are you that LLD is scum? Can you point me directly to why you believe so, or if you haven't explained it yet, explain it for me? This is important to my read on you this game.

Right now, ~96% sure she's scum. The only way she isn't is if both your slot and S_S are scum, which seems really farfetched.

At daystart, I had her as a primary scum candidate with hito for bullying for the pine lynch. Later in the day I realized that her being likely to pick gun was of note, but that was already made irrelevant after your slot's vote.

[Kagami]

Not that much? At the time I put my L-1 down, she was already nearly-confirmed scum.

[Kagami]

He thinks both, the former necessarily if he's not a complete idiot. The latter is a direction where I understand why he thinks that, but it is very, very bad to talk about, hence why I've chosen to pretend it doesn't exist.

[Kagami]

o hi.

[Kagami]

Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.

[Kagami]

Well, this changes things to the world where the NKs fit more nicely.

I would like to discuss the "I am awesome and lynching pine was an awesomely correct thing that I did" post after the game, hito.

[Kagami]

It's kind of hard to imagine s_s-scum makes an explicit non-CC in 703, especially with LLD as his partner.

[Kagami]

Even with cyan/ank, it's a statement that's reasonably likely to move toward saving Pine from a completely town-driven and wildly pro-scum mislynch, which he was under absolutely no obligation to make.

[Kagami]

I don't understand that statement. I'm saying I don't think there are any scumfigurations including you.

It looks like Hito is town given 808, since LLD-Hito had pretty much won the game after ank's entrance, and 803 completely throws that out the window.

[Kagami]

808, not 803

[Kagami]

O, I see what you're saying.

It seems like pretty silly scumplay to block such a lovely mislynch, when all you'd have to do is not post at all, but ok.

Still don't think it's an s_s configuration. Ank's switch from LLD to me makes little sense in S_S+Ankworld as well.

[Kagami]

Playing well as scum isn't about playing as your town self unless you hope to win by chance alone. It's about pushing the game in a pro-scum direction as much as possible without the town attributing the pushes to your alignment.

If you would non-CC as scum, that's fine (and frankly, I don't believe you), but even not posting at all to maximize the odds the pine wagon gets to a lynch is absolutely better scumplay than hoping the non-CC is ignored and that someone down the line attributes it to your alignment.

[Kagami]

I don't think so either, I think he was just very, very sure of himself and didn't really think about how valueless hiding the "real" gun was until later.

Obviously it didn't prevent the lynch, but it certainly furthered the possibility that everyone takes a step back and things get sorted out. Pine becomes confirmed town if you had saved him, so I don't think the pocket would work out as you might hope.

Anyway, I see what your saying, though I think it's kind of a silly argument. I was actually aiming this all at Hito in any case, as I think we're now both going in the correct direction.

[Kagami]

You live in a dream world, ank.

[Kagami]

Unfortunately, we need unanimity, ank, so now is the time to start seeing.

[Kagami]

Can we go through what you don't like about me here, and what you do like about LLD?

[Kagami]

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

[Kagami]

I was hoping you'd reply soonish, as my window of being able to respond is closing, but I would also appreciate it if you could explain that last sentence.

[Kagami]

Alright, firstly, I think you need to reread and digest this game a bit more.

I'll go through this point by point,

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

Okay, here's ultimately what I'm thinking regarding this game.

First, I decided that I'm not going to read back through days one and two in their entirety. I firmly believe that the content there is far more likely to be raw noise over relevant content, especially since I simultaneously believe that what's going on today is very likely going to be enough to pick out what exactly scum are looking to do with this endgame.

Second, I firmly believe that all five of you are competent enough at mafia to at least have an idea for how to end the game in a win as scum in this game, even against the other three players (not counting my own slot, Cyan) still alive. This is slightly harder to just accept for any other slot since my predecessor was clearly newer at the game, but FMPOV any list of two players in this endgame is more than capable enough of having a set plan for how to handle this MyLo, especially since it's very obvious just by the setup that the night two kills were both scum kills. It's simply ridiculous to think that the scumteam are playing in a way that isn't likely to give them a win. This already gives a level of focus to the game that allows how people are playing the endgame to be readable.

ok, sure. Scum want to win.

I find it very hard to believe that an LLD+(S_S/Kagami) team is possible since then this immediate LLD piledrive wagon doesn't make any sense as a play in MyLo.
Implosion/Hitogoroshi is not a team because just hammering LLD when she was at L-1 is a simple enough endgame to win even in the worst case scenario, and I fully believe that they would've taken that when given the opportunity.

The "piledrive" was your slot's action, which while reckless, had a wildly pro-town result. I'm pretty sure LLD didn't see that coming. I joined much later after I felt reasonably certain that no one had missed out on quickhammer shenanigans. Imp-Hito is not a viable team, that is correct.

This by necessity means that either both Something_Smart and Kagami is scum, or the scumteam is {LLD/S_S/Kagami} + {Implosion/hitogoroshi}.

No, this is just wrong. It's exactly S_S and me, or LLD and anyone.

I still believe that the recent Kagami + Something_Smart engagement flowed strangely enough to have scum influence within it.
I noticed a few small details that pinged me when I looked through the last couple pages (primarily Hitogoroshi's, if I remember correctly). I remember not liking how Hitogoroshi handled Kagami specifically today.

Hito has exactly one viable scum partner: LLD. When you entered and flipped your slot's position, LLD+Hito had won with near certainty. Hito was beautifully positioned to support a kagami lynch, but rejected it in 808. While Hito has made mistakes in this game, I don't think he's viably scum unless he's doing a pretty silly slowroll.

When I specifically look at who appears to have a set plan in place for how to end the game, Kagami shoots right up to the top of the list.

My *plan* insofar as it existed was that I thought LLD and Hito were scum going into the night, and had pops as a wildcard #3 (which I submitted to FG shortly after I saw the lynch). At the time, it seemed reasonably possible that we had room for another mislynch in which case the pine thing wasn't a complete disaster, but I didn't realize that players got alignment first and so there was going to be at least one double kill coming.

a) She specifically created a situation where LLD is by far the most likely scum candidate by standard wagon logic, then specifically argued for that being the case.

Pretty sure I just didn't do this. I've argued for hito being scum at some length, but LLD being nearly confirmed scum was a consequence of her not getting hammered.

b) She specifically called LLD scum for picking Rose instead of Gun, and her logic here contradicts this, which was subsequently dropped completely.

I think you just misunderstand what's happening there? 643 is just me being surprised that LLD didn't pick N1 gun. I assumed anyone picking gun would probably pick N1 gun, which I still think is probably optimal for town, and saw that there was a single N1 kill that looked like a scum kill, so I figured there was no N1 gun and was surprised LLD in particular wouldn't choose it (as I would have if I had gotten to choose my role). Some number of hours into Today, I realized that there was alignment relevant information in players' predisposition to choose roles and commented thusly, but as I had said, that was already irrelevant.

c) Her posting regarding the Pine wagon is incongruent with her play today. Her stance for most of the day has been somewhere in the realm of passive observing and passive approving, and she only really pushes against it at all towards the very end despite, as I noted above, already having set up the thought process to realize something was up already. It simply makes no sense to me that a town Kagami would approach day two that passively, say things like this, then start the day by hard pushing both slots that were pushing the Pine wagon through.

I was literally not there when the wagon built up. I was running out the door when I saw pine say there was two town guns and was checking on that without having really recognized pops's vote. I think you should check the timestamps on the pine wagon. I did all I expected I needed to do to make sure his claim would be sorted out, and I believed it very possible that pine was in fact scum and was going to be CCed.

When you combine the above three, the picture you come to is that Kagami allowed the wagon on the only town Gun to go through while setting up LLD as the game winning mislynch, then directly pushing through with it when given the opportunity. She's gone out of her way multiple times to say that LLD is by far her biggest scumread or objectively the correct lynch, yet her instinct when both Hitogoroshi and Implosion make their first appearances after I joined the game is to start humoring other scumteams potentially existing. This is even without going into this post, which... I don't understand the point behind it being made in the first place? I don't see a connection to any of her other posts made afterwards, nor how it (or really even her overall tone and thoughts here) fits her thought process that the scumteam is just LLD + Hitogoroshi.

This is just false? I didn't let anything go on pine. I didn't set up anything on LLD, so I don't even get what you're saying there. I thought LLD was pretty likely to be scum, saw her get run up to L-2, saw no quickhammers, assessed that you and s_s were pretty unlikely to be scum together, so she's scum. I haven't said she's my biggest scumread at all; I haven't even read most of her posts. She's scum by mechanics thus objectively the correct lynch, that is true. I am "humoring" s_s teams in my earlier posting because hito has switched from scumread to town and I am open to working with another reasonable soul. The linked post results from me recognizing that hito has to be town (or is slowrolling in a really unnecessary way). If you think I should punished for voicing idle game-relevant thoughts, then that's something you should correct.

There's simply too much I find bizarre about how she's playing this game.

I think you're just misunderstanding an awful lot.

As for her partner, I'm leaning hitogoroshi at the moment, although that's predominantly because of the above gutpings I had on his posting, combined with how Kagami appears to have been trying to push Implosion to be the one to hammer LLD (which prepares for the worst case scenario of a no kill night three). I could see a Kagami + Hitogoroshi team not hammering LLD immediately for specifically the purpose of having Implosion take the fall of being the hammer vote to make a potential 5p LyLo much safer.

No, scum almost certainly wins on a mislynch here. Even if he didn't, I'm pretty sure he'd be able to spin up a hammer that has plausible deniability. Keep in mind, the scumteam is almost certainly two Guns. We've seen one extra kill, so either they have two kills tonight, or a kill was blocked earlier and they know that that player is vulnerable tonight. The only possible world where a mislynch isn't game over is if they had two kills N1 and one hit pops. Given pops was looking toward a pine lynch, I don't see him being a N1 target.

That said, I'm not entirely convinced on that team. I still think Something_Smart makes a bit more sense in the 'raw planning' department of this game since it's much easier to force the game to go this direction if both scum specifically push for it, but I haven't even looked at the night two kills to confirm or deny that this specific scumteam pushes for this game. I'm somewhat assuming that the scumteam were more concerned with not hitting roses (since night 2 rose, to me, would be something I'd expect to be commonly picked) over deciding on the correct endgame, since the road to endgame is significantly harder with a full mislynch to spare than from MyLo.

(And for clarity, I'm fully assuming that scum do not have an extra gunshot tonight, I expect that either one picked a rose to foil vigs, or both vigs picked night one or night two guns.)

I think you're wrong that scum would ever consider a rose unless there was a really good reason to believe all of town was going to pick a specific day to be a vig. Even if they were dum-dums and picked a rose, I don't think they are scared of a N3 rose foiling a win.

[Kagami]

I'd say if anything is obvious from my posting in general, it should be that I don't have anything resembling a plan.

[Kagami]

Hito I promise promise promise you I am town.

You're being scum doesn't make this any less skeevy.

I get that you want to win, but I'm never going to play with you again.

[Kagami]

I guess it's fair that I do find myself pretty annoyed by appeals to emotion (or at least in their seeming efficacy), but I don't think that's what a promise of alignment is. If I were to tell FG that I promise I'll do my very best in his game (which thankfully I didn't), it would be betting my honor and our out-of-game relationship on my performance, not trying to make him feel one way or the other. If the goal were not to appeal to an out-of-game bond, which I surmise from 808 that you have with hito, then I don't see the reason you would promise promise promise anything.

Anyway, I wasn't planning to post at all today due to the holiday and the related events I've been attending, but that really felt like something that I would have thought you wouldn't do.

[Kagami]

Before the thread locks:

I apologize, LLD. I was just really, really frustrated with this game.

I do think it was a bit untoward, but I was probably worse in my response, which was surely an overreaction.

[Kagami]

I had night1 rose and it deflected a nightkill but I rolled 33% n1 rose 33% n2 rose 33% n3 rose. I think skewing that higher towards night one might have been correcter play

Word, N5 rose was clearly the correct pick!

I'm pretty sure town should just be N1 Rose/Gun. Let mafia pick N1 rose if they want to.

Thank you town for pulling out the win, and thank you FG for the excellent modding as always.

[Kagami]

I agree that scum should be picking guns, but I would also like to add that in the other two games I've run offsite, the entirety of scum team were

annihilated by town N1 Guns

(!?) and the games did not even go into D2. (1st game, both scum were gunned down N1; the 2nd game, one scum was lynched D1, and other gunned down N1)

I would argue that a N1 Rose pick for scum is a viable pick.

I would also argue that there is non-zero utility in picking later nights than N1, but N1 anything is pretty clearly the dominating choice in the playspace.

Town gets a huge benefit in lining up their Rose/Gun picks to all being the same night, and the only sensible night given that is N1. I agree that N1 rose is a very reasonable scum pick, maybe even the optimal one, but they then run the risk of getting locked into rose claims and playing a mountainous-like setup with a lot of role information that favors the town.