Newbie 1714: Mafia Thread

[mhsmith0]

Current game state read: FOX copped vandit, which was why he was against the lynch, and then backed out when he saw it as inevitable to avoid getting outed as cop. Not 100% but my best guess.

For now...

Mhsmith0 murders FOX.

Let's discuss when rask gets back. DO NOT CONSENT to speed deadlines. At all.

Ps I had thought it was me/vandit when I signed on. Was half right lol.

PPs we REALLY need to discuss what to do given result of night action, nk, vt's, or various prs.

Ppps I really hate wolfing . I also think newbie setups are way too town sided, since we ducked two lynches and town can potentially lock it with night actions alone.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, rask and I are CRUSHING the day game right now, both pretty decent town reads overall. And sick is super easy mislynch d3 I think, with beeboy also possible. But we REALLY need the nk to hit a pr. Will re read to see if I can get a better PR read. But worst case, I think FOX is he best of the remaining townies. Spk ain't terrible.

Ps lol if we're up against a jk only. Other than ACTUALLY hitting the cop/tracker, a jk miss would be most helpful outcome.

[mhsmith0]

I actually feel really sympathetic to the surviving town newbies sick and zyf because imo they're legit trying, they just don't know how to scum-hunt or what to look for (though in fairness, vandit seemed obv!wolf who just happened to be town - I actually kinda forgot what even happened d1 or what the sad wagon was even about lol) . Note to self: share resources w them post game however things work out.

[mhsmith0]

The down side of shooting fox instead of zyf is that if beeboy and suck are both prs (or one is cop and cleared the other), we need to ML zyf which will be HARD. I've thrown a bit of dirt on both bee and sick, and FOX's "will" is helpful too. But all will be lost if we get the wrong mix of prs and night actions. Yuck.

[mhsmith0]

lol just went over my wiki and almost all my games here are subs.

[mhsmith0]

I kinda wonder if this would be a good game to play my "I'm always easy to read, I always get quick-lynched as wolf, I never get lynched as town" card. I mean it's completely true, but it's also pretty cheap to pull this in a newbie game. At any rate, I think we need a plan of attack for NK result:

FOX = JK
FOX = Cop
FOX = Tracker
FOX = Doctor
FOX = VT
No kill

VT and no kill are the bad ones IMO. the rest we can/should be able to work with. JK/cop are of course the best flips. Tracker nearly as good, because one town clear and no investigative.

[mhsmith0]

Ironically, I'm actually VERY happy I was on that mislynch wagon. NOT being on that wagon is seemingly TMI.

I'd say I'm pretty good as town (NEVER mislynched outside a turbo, one time I tied at EOD but as a sub on a slot that had already gotten votes). As wolf I kinda suck (i keep getting quick lynched lol), but since I was wolf reading vandit before I got role pm I basically rolled with it. I think this game is locked if we hit the cop or jk. We're in trouble if kill is blocked though. Or if it's a vt flip (barring a row 1 scenario)

[mhsmith0]

Ill re read tomorrow to see if there's a better pr target than fox, but I kinda think beeboy and zyf were sending fake pr signals (beeboy especially seems like the sort).

[mhsmith0]

It might be good we were both off d1 mislynch too. Wolves normally would be one on one off. That may help.

That's said we may need to distance or fake fight depending on nk outcomes. Def don't go overboard w it but if there are three vt claims, or a cop w a clear then it's nearly solved for the town

A cop w a single guilty, ironically, might actually be better than a clear much less two clears. We'll see I guess.

[mhsmith0]

I think we are both well off the primary suspect list. FOX kill frames others too

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I hate to say it but vandit is basically wolf MVP right now for d1 hammer and being easy d2 wagon. I'll try and give him some advice post game. Hopefully he improves.

[mhsmith0]

IMO wolves can't win this setup unless town really screw up or wolves get really lucky w nks. Which is funny since wolves win >50%. *says the guy who fucked up the final 3 hammer in prior newbie *

[mhsmith0]

Zyf also pr claimed in same post

Or maybe I'm just giving myself too much importance, since I'm talking a lot and unique roles (i.e. not a VT) usually don't do that.

WIFOM lol

[mhsmith0]

I will say this game has helped my confidence quite a bit. My wolfing nadir was the game I had w beeboy, 8v1 I get lynched d1. Not super fun lol. I may lean on that as "see how bad I am as wolf" if needed lol, but I'd rather not.

[mhsmith0]

Like, in a normal game I'd do whatever, but it feels almost unfair to do it to newbies.

[mhsmith0]

I at least nailed kaag in first lylo in my newbie so avoided sweep loss. But that loss still pains me. Then again the whole graveyard blamed the guy I hammered for being scummy as hell.

Wrt defense I'd rather not toss out meta, but we need only one more lynch so we'll see I guess. We def. need a plan for mass claiming though. Not sure what is most optimal. Of course, if it's a jk flip, one of us should probably claim bp. Not sure doc claim is good given cop flip: may need to no kill n3 given a fake doc claim, and even there it's risky.

[mhsmith0]

Beeboy might be tracker or jk though, and lo and behold you've never gone anywhere or done anything.

I think FOX is a hard mislynch, especially with him NOT being vandits buddy. I also think he's the one most dialed in. And I think he's likeliest jk/cop/tracker.

I'll re read tomorrow as well to see if anything else shakes out.

Ps town doesn't know there's no rb so 2 and A MAY be useful, but are very risky.

PPs yeah cop will kill us unless we got lucky w night targets (ranger could have been n1 target). Which is possible, especially if say sick was the cop or something. N1 ranger and n2 FOX being cop targets would be awesome lol.

[mhsmith0]

Claiming bp/doc (and I'll tell ya later) MAY be a safe claim but prepare to be 50% odds to be in a dipole w the real one if you do. Risky but if you think you can win heads up it could work. Lol if you are up against tracker who saw u go nowhere tho.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I'll try and make an if/then grid for night results.

[mhsmith0]

Yep it wasn't a bad move tbh. Zyf wasn't THAT super obv!town. And ranger mighta been a PR.

[mhsmith0]

I think it's better for me to kill again just in case we have a slow rolling tracker. I can live w getting caught if it outs the pr. I think I'm unlikely to be tracked since I'm not suspected.

Super lol if we have a jk who jails FOX tonight and suspects him for it.

[mhsmith0]

I may claim doc if there's a no kill though. My hand may be forced.

[mhsmith0]

I kinda think FOX copped/jailed/tracked vandit n1. Like, I'm 50% sure, and that informed his soft push against the vandit lynch.

Will mull over who suspects who and why in more detail tomorrow I think.

[mhsmith0]

But I THINK sick and bee are our potential mislynches on d3, and let's hope they're not both prs.

[mhsmith0]

Kinda. I think he decided it'd be dangerous to out himself that just to derail a runaway wagon that everyone wanted. Also maybe he just trackers/jailed him which isn't even 100%.

[mhsmith0]

Kinda a gut thing tho. Will re read to see if there's better evidence. Also my PR reads range from awesome to shifty so idk for sure.

Ninja'd: I'm open to a plan. We could also just agree to both be on at a specific time of day perhaps.

[mhsmith0]

Hmm. Ok let's mull it over. I do think FOX is the most dialed in of the lot, so I'd rather him dead all things cnisdered.

[mhsmith0]

Good thing we have 48 hours

[mhsmith0]

Lol bee boys 298. He had it for a minute

[mhsmith0]

Beeboys 381 could be a soft claim. Otoh I feel like he enjoys bullshitting enough that it'd easily be a fake soft claim.

[mhsmith0]

Yeah. I'm not 100% opposed to killing beeboy instead of FOX, though I do think a FOX kill is nicely framing of beeboy.

I may come back w a beeboy / rask team w that read of yours as distancing since there really wasn't follow through ever. Trying to think if there's a better "read" to make.

[mhsmith0]

I'll check back in afternoon or evening. Still need to reread lol.

[mhsmith0]

sorry, i've been busy w other stuff today. catching up.

[mhsmith0]

OH lord I just skimmed beeboys one wolf game in his wiki. Totally different feel. He may be tough to mislynch after all (though w no one left alive who knows his meta... Hmm...)

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I can see that. Still mulling over him vs FOX as the better kill. Either implicates both you and the other I think. Meanwhile I'm townie mc townie

[mhsmith0]

One legit question is with FOX dead, if we can count on the rest of town to jump into an easy mislynch of sick or beeboy. With no PR it'd be easy I think but PR can win it for town

[mhsmith0]

Oh I know. I'm def. not out of the woods, nor should I be. My day 2 was merely adequate (which for my wolfing is nicely above average). Even a lazy glance at my meta would be jarring compared to my typical town game.

[mhsmith0]

22 oof by zyf. Sarcastic and relaxed is exactly what you'd expect from town there.
30 yeah bb was right there as noted in 47, it was awkward
48 shit, even like three is too much for me at once lol. Also I still want payback for open 635, I feel like this kinda counts even if ranger is already dead, kinda like mini 1782 kinda counts even though rc subbed out :p
68 super townie/pure tone by beeboy there
149 and others - consistent suspicion of sick by zyf. If zyf was cop he'd have gone after sick. Not the cop. MAYBE a jk or tracker.
174 - if we kill fox this could maybe be zyf evidence
181 - maybe evidence towards rask-zyf if needed? Otoh zyf is kinda spammy in a hard to to fake way, I don't want to need to wolf read him
208 - zyf REALLY wanted sick lynched. With a jk or cop flip I would say sick the likeliest target
234 - don't see zyf as a cop slow rolling an innocent on sick
238 let's hope Rangers faith in the wolf team is well founded
239 sick wolf reads fox and vandit, hard to see him as a cop - no overnight changes to his reads
247 sick sort of softs cop, but it's hard to say who he'd have checked
249 vandit on zyf. Don't really want to rely on dead reads but MAYBE can mine it
250 interesting swing by zyf there on sick. Slow rolling cop???
277 weird post by FOX. That vote was zyf not rask. Cop w guilty????????????
282 that's not a pr type post from sick
292 could be bitching about being a doctor and missing a target
293 fox jumping on a non vandit wagon is kinda what a TMI might look like if he cop checked vandit n1. Also if fox is cop then it TOTALLY looks like a beeboy guilty check and lock win
298 beeboy would totally have cop checked rask. Maybe a tracker check or jk target though?
302 beeboy talks a lot about protective actions. Super plausible Doctor. Maybe a jk. Either one would increase odds of an rb.
317 I still think that was bogus by sick
323 foxs sarcastic tone there was towny, even if against the "wrong" target
329 sarcasm IS a thing that townies tend to do, btw
330 objectively Wolfy by zyf to PR speculate on beeboy there. Also signs of a zyf PR perhaps?
342 more pr spec by zyf here. I don't necessarily mind killing him and hoping fox and bee fight. Risky move though.
345 fox pushes back on zyf
347 I'd have killed zyf by bee
364 fox setup specs, suggestion of rb suggests possible non tracker pr
367 fox talking about PR roles, I get sense that he may well know the setup because he's a PR
374 when play is "off" it usually means Mafia or PR. fox not Mafia...
381 beeboy, could be a doc/cop/bp himself
422/3 targets on fox

Wild guess: fox tracker, beeboy doc or bp.

[mhsmith0]

I think fox is who I most want dead, both plausible pr and a strong player. Oops if beeboy protects him though.

[mhsmith0]

pacific time. What are you at? Eastern?

[mhsmith0]

+1 on stretch type guiltiies, just kinda thinking out loud. Sucks to be rolling dice like this, but it's part of the game structure. I think in the event of a vt flip or nk, we may need to have pr claims ready to try out

[mhsmith0]

If you prefer a beeboy kill I'm fine w you switching orders. 50% tracker odds though, so I should still be the shooter, just don't want to risk double tracker guiltiies slow playing.

[mhsmith0]

**** in case of hammer and wanting to target night actions****

I will refer to players as

Player A zyf
Player B beeboy
Player C fox
Player D sick

Please don't use this code yourself, but if I have to die and think I have something useful to say I'll try and use the code.

[mhsmith0]

I probably need to refresh my last newbie lylo showing. I may need to SWAMP the thread with effort, my day 2 was lazy and lacking

[mhsmith0]

Yeah I think that it's likely dicey to over coordinate. There's value to "look I'm not quick hammering" as well tbh.

At any rate I should be generally available most evenings and less so in the middle of the day for the most part (at least week days).

Lol if we can make as sketchy/silly a wolf hammer as FA/rc/ranger pulled in open 635

Ps if we DID nail cop/jk, then your call if I want to claim doc/bp. If we didn't, then we may have to wing it. if we missed tracker AND doc (if that's the setup) both nights.

PPs either way it's been fun and it would doubtless be fun to town with you in the future lol

[mhsmith0]

Plausible "sells"
Beeboy-rask because that read of rask never really went anywhere. Though beeboys 68 kind of ought to be clearing by itself lol.

Sick generically given all of his suspicion

Maybe a 1 on, 1 off d1 wagon? That'd be zyf or sick and bee or rask. Hmm, maybe. Need to "think" on which combo there is "correct"

Ps fox ISO from first newbie game
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7894473
WAY more aggressive than here. Maybe he's not quite as enthusiastic... Or maybe he's dialing it down and hiding out because he's a PR. I'm increasingly happy w this nk. Well, unless beeboy is the doctors and saves him. Otoh, foxs reaction suggests he's extra aware of a rb setup possibility which suggests he is NOT the tracker. Hoping for a cop/jk kill, would be nice. Real nice. Jk kill the best, rask you can claim or not claim bp at your preference if it flips jk. I will claim vt given cop or jk flip.

PPs good luck we had a d1 quick hammer and a d2 fall guy (wildly reduces connections and info to board), bad luck neither lynch was a pr. Oh well.

Ppps damn if zyf was cop and 241 was spew.

[mhsmith0]

Other notes:

1) if fox is vt I may mock the wolves for a bad kill. I may even be a jerk about it. "You don't shoot inside the Poe!" and the like. See if a "defending the nk" reaction pops out

2) if I get lynched and you're not implicated, you MAY want to no kill. But that's only if we hit jk/cop/doc tonight. Otherwise I think you're forced to shoot

[mhsmith0]

@rask: let me know if you have any last thoughts before night end. Otherwise it's been fun wolfing w you and best of luck to us both on d3.

[mhsmith0]

I may as well. In the event there are two clears (prs or cop + one peek) I'll need to tell a story about how it's you plus thus other guy, and you will as well. Which would be fun in its own right.

if we both have to fake claim though, like if a cop has TWO clears or two guiltiies. SHOULD not have to happen.

[mhsmith0]

@mod: I'm still murdering FOX as our night action.