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Post #5 (isolation #2) » Thu Aug 03, 2023 7:26 am
Postby bob3141 »
not a statisitical read but civil is day slightly prob town. He had the first flash wagon hit him and that hits town more scum when compared with the base odds of 3/13 of a player being scum
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Post #7 (isolation #3) » Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:17 am
Postby bob3141 »
is not worth town reading but it is a resonable reliable marker.
Its all based on game theory. town are generaly freer with rvs votes, while scum try and avoid associations to early. So scum are more likely than town to hold off voting if there buddy is already at 3 votes. Some scum will but the ratio will be less than when a player is town.
doesnt rule out them as scum but the lower odds makes the first pass at solving using game theory easier
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Post #15 (isolation #7) » Sat Aug 05, 2023 6:03 am
Postby bob3141 »
How he jumped on bella. Plus another marker thats not 100% reliable
Felt very much like a stretch with hint over justification for the stage of the game. More like someone trying to make a case then sort. With the resulting over explanation to justify it.
As it was based on bella comparing 2 players to a base line rather than meta read. (almost wrote meat read)
And then goes into a stretch that this imply bella must be informed and thus scum.
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Post #21 (isolation #11) » Sun Aug 06, 2023 2:14 am
Postby bob3141 »
Its generaly a weakened mason as you dont know if the person your talking to is actualy town and not scum. It sometimes also exists to weaken roles like TA. e.g. 2 neighbours and 3 scum
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Post #32 (isolation #15) » Sun Aug 06, 2023 8:13 pm
Postby bob3141 »
That a physiologist a gunsmith checks if they have gun. So roles like goon, gunsmith, vig, pgo (if it was normal) come up positove where as scum doc comes up as fake clear
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Post #36 (isolation #17) » Mon Aug 07, 2023 10:09 am
Postby bob3141 »
Prob right as origionaly my first action was going to gunsmith you to see if i could clear you and turn this hood into defacto masonary.
yep im gated. odd night will prob be able to get at most 2 results. Since we have vig and gunsmith then theere is good chance scum have a doc. I doubt we have a second gunsmith as i think im just the half town power role
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Post #40 (isolation #18) » Mon Aug 07, 2023 11:32 pm
Postby bob3141 »
could be a red herring, to early to say
but it is bit odd claiming that they are bulletproof as if they were that would undo the very value of the role. As from his pov he would have no idea that their is a vig
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Post #43 (isolation #20) » Tue Aug 08, 2023 9:32 am
Postby bob3141 »
im starting to think as well naerys might just be new too although ill keep the pressure on them for bit longer. If they were scum i would expect either more pushing that way (stronger player bussing) or some sign that there partners might be giving them hints in the pvt. For now i want to see who else bites on the Naerys wagon
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Post #53 (isolation #24) » Fri Aug 11, 2023 6:03 am
Postby bob3141 »
im worried about civil shooting me lol. He has been in tunnel since the start of the game, even takes my jokes as role fishing. If pr dies n1 without any claims then sure suspect me but i would never be seen role fishing as scum. Before i think i had 50% hit rate for town pr as scum.
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Post #56 (isolation #27) » Fri Aug 11, 2023 6:15 am
Postby bob3141 »
Pc is so obvous scum . COmes assusing me of not solving or sorting yet all he has done is push my slot and omgus civil. No attempt to sort, just attempts to get misexecutions through
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Post #59 (isolation #29) » Mon Aug 14, 2023 10:21 am
Postby bob3141 »
kim seems to be skirting around my convoluted logic trying to avoid scum reading pc. were it really only points to town starfire and bella. As from last vote count they were lead two wagons and pc was trailing with little support. In case of deadline flash execution pc would be at little risk
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Post #62 (isolation #30) » Wed Aug 16, 2023 9:51 am
Postby bob3141 »
yep would prob be good idea.
kim feels very defensive. since his read list on 10th augs that pretty much had 3 scum reads on low hanging fruit most of his posts have just been commentry but no analysis. pretty normaly to explain onces scum reads when asked yet he isnt. And is falling back on read my iso when his iso has little justification for them
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Post #67 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 17, 2023 5:48 am
Postby bob3141 »
In post 63, Hu Tao wrote:
Glad I was right on Greeting/Looker. I'm afraid I might be night killed for it. Since scum have a doctor do you think RN is town?
hard to tell as if you and civil are both town then it would imply that scum need some sort of counter play e.g. bp
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Post #72 (isolation #36) » Fri Aug 18, 2023 6:01 am
Postby bob3141 »
gone and plyed it safe as its better i get a clear than guilty. As although i dont expect the game to have roles other than vig i can flase guilty, there is still very small chance
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Post #80 (isolation #38) » Fri Aug 18, 2023 9:00 pm
Postby bob3141 »
yep they also sat in the second bussing position e-3
saw this in my last completed game. i repped in day 3 and greeting had been executed and there partners dragon and furt were at e-3 and e-2. With it happening a day before deadline
sp molla has good partner equity with kim and greeting/looker
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Post #84 (isolation #40) » Fri Aug 18, 2023 10:34 pm
Postby bob3141 »
In Normal games on mafiascum.net, a Gunsmith gets guilties on all Mafia (except Traitors and Doctors), Cops, Vigilantes, Gunsmiths, Role Cops, Vanilla Cops, PT Cops, Vengefuls, Detectives, Neapolitans, Backups of roles with guns and JoATs that have any of these listed powers.
thats teh rar info
doct rules out rolecop,
vig rules out vig, vengful
cop rules out another cop or gunsmith. also the neap as it sits on same ground
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Post #90 (isolation #46) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:25 am
Postby bob3141 »
i think im going to have to claim.
ive got pc tunneling me last day. naerys is too rookie to read the thread right and nurse is in a gamblers logical falsy. plys scum kim. thats 4 there plus one more scum equal 5
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Post #91 (isolation #47) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 2:41 am
Postby bob3141 »
well we got kim but i had to claim the counter my wagon forming before i could get kim to claim. Also to avoid claiming my role first i had to let on that your were my neighbour.
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Post #97 (isolation #49) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 3:39 am
Postby bob3141 »
for some reason they were demanding a roleclaim from me first. which is just silly as im not a cop. So letting scum know your role allows them to fake claim better. They would of prob run me up to e-1 if i hadnt partial claimed lol
Even then happy if he was town was after my gating.
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Post #98 (isolation #50) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 3:41 am
Postby bob3141 »
In post 96, Hu Tao wrote:
Hopefully naerys is on you? I wish we had more time to plan for tomorrow in thread. I'm thinking of just shooting BB tonight. You?
i think its a decent shot. bbmola went after me and completly ignored the case against kim. Much in the same way kim was doing.
If they are town then they are prob going to be hindrance in elo.
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Post #102 (isolation #52) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 3:49 am
Postby bob3141 »
yep will be working on my final reads latter today.
but for now my cheif scum read is bbmola with how they were fighting my case against kim. And when they repped in the first thing they did was say they would not vote for kim
Plus bella was town reading greeting before they got repped. Plus no attempt to sort either kim or greeting. yet a town read and reading kim as fine
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Post #104 (isolation #54) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 3:57 am
Postby bob3141 »
last game with scum greeting he mentioned one of his partners but ignored the other. so im think the partner is not going to be someone greeting interacted with directly
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Post #106 (isolation #56) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 4:04 am
Postby bob3141 »
i think dragons end of dayone action point to town. he switched wagon momentum from CP to looker and since scum should of known from looker disloyal modifier that town had gunsmith/follower/tracker. It would be reckless for scum to bus looker if pc was town.
so the first 4 votes Naerys, Dannflor, Political Clout, Save The Dragons on looker are prob town
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Post #108 (isolation #57) » Sat Aug 19, 2023 10:12 am
Postby bob3141 »
I think bella was even trying to poke PC scum read of me. They started saying i was to low, followed by greeting but never did any defense of me but instead simply ask pc about his read. Whereas they were actively defending greeting.
if the team is greeting/looker + kim +bella/bbmole i kind feel sorry for them as its not gone well for them
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Post #112 (isolation #58) » Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:10 am
Postby bob3141 »
This is interesting. i dont get why scum would try and shoot me before nearys. They should of been able to work out that im odd nights from the fact that their rolestopper was odd nights
yep it was bb that fliped that slot from town to scum too. be funny if Kims partner hadnt logged on before day 2 had already finsihed. I would hate to have game were i had to try an dget through 3 misexecutions