Newbie 2115 Mafia PT

[usesPython]

Hi I skimmed the game already so I have a decent idea of what's happened this game. Any pushes you want me to do after I "catch up" or should I just do my own thing wrt reads?

[usesPython]

I've played with Catboi before in Newbie 2111, I can probably get a townread from him based on how he townread me that game. Gonna ISO him to see if there's anything I can push him on

[usesPython]

Current thought rn is that I can push a catboi/OMI scumteam with the angle that catboi is blatantly defending the 105 slip, while also leaving myself the discredit + out that in Newbie 2111 Catboi hard defended an obvscum by excusing their scumminess as newbtown while Catboi was town.

Actaully on second thought, OMI scumread + Catboi discredit would work better since as far as I can tell most people have tuned out the Catboi/AV fight as some meta thing and getting ignored and discredited might further demoralize him

[usesPython]

Yeah calling people out for PR hunting (even when it's unintentional) is super easy because so many people forget both scum and PR's have info on the setup.

[usesPython]

Something to consider:

In a Rolecop/Tracker game the only other PR possible is Friendly Neighbor and Doctor

If we see a FNslip one of us can actually claim Jailkeeper in 5p ELO during a massclaim, pretend the game is Rolecop/Jailkeeper/FN and push pod as "fake" tracker

[usesPython]

Yeah in that case a pivot to "catboi is informed and knew OMI was town" might be doable with how hard he defended OMI there

[usesPython]

Also something to start considering:

Who's making the n1 kill and do we risk doc existing and being on tracker? Right now only Tracker/FN and Tracker/Doc is possible so a N1 tracker kill is a 50/50 on if it works

D2 we can start looking for FN slips from people suddenly changing reads, if we see one we should definitely try NKing the Tracker at that point

[usesPython]

It’s better if you do the kill, if I get tracked to two targets it confirms me as scum

Pod could attract the potential doc; but so could delta. It’s 50/50 of a 50/50 imo. Or do you think a doc would definitely be on Pod? If it was me I’d wifom it and bank on scum not going for pod tbh.

But that doesn’t mean we should target pod lol

Getting tracked going anywhere is already really sketchy, the only reason for me to be doing the kill here is if you expect you're getting tracked and aren't rolecopping either. Otherwise just dumping all the maf actions on you with the hope that you wont get tracked is probably a better strategy, especially since we know there's no Jailkeeper.

If you're Doctor in a Tracker game then you know that it's a Rolecop game and that Mafia knows there's a 50/50 of a doc even existing. If it was Jailkeeper where Jailkeeper knows maf knows there's a guaranteed protective role then sure I could see the argument but in a doc game they're on the outed tracker every time

[usesPython]

catboi replacing out is pretty good for us here. If the replacement doesn't scumread you that's good, if the replacement starts hard scumreading you again we can just call it an agenda
(also great that he didn't comment on me before replacing, could have probably pulled through a questioning but an easier game is probably better)

[usesPython]

Maybe, I wasn't clear with my comment, when I said:

"Today we need to do an exhaustive analysis and obtain conclusions in the new case: AurorusVox vrs catboi"

I refer to analize if that discuss is from:
Option A: townie vr townie
Option B: townie vr scum
Because I discard totaly scum vr scum in that discuss.
I'm going to do ISO in (AurorusVox vrs catboi) to bring my conclusion here.

Re-reading their ISO's, I'd actually argue that if you flip town a catboi/AV scumteam is a serious possibility and I'm curious why you dismiss the possibility. In that scenario posts like

Spoiler: Quote wall

Do not answer that question

Wtf omi

VOTE: omi

Blatant pr hunting!

oh cool, AV is almost definitely mafia for this.

Blatant pr hunting!

I understand but, for a moment I thought that with that question Powerofdeath could give me TMI and expose him as a scum.

Scum doesn't make a post like this.

Would to me indicate that catboi is coming from an informed position. Like I don't see how a town!catboi looks at your page 5 posting and thinks "Yep that's obvtown, go push the person calling them out".
If you take a look at his arguments though, it's written in a way that can justify him scumcasing AV without actually getting people on an AV wagon. The premise of his AV push requires assuming not only that you're town but that you're obvtown for PR hunting.

From a practical perspective it's also worked. From what I can tell people already tuned out the catboi/AV fight, at that point it literally doesn't matter how hard either of them push each other because none of it will change if they get limmed while also letting them distance hard.

3 for 1 special of scumcasing OMI for dismissing a scum vs scum, scumcasing catboi, and distancing that doesn't lead to a lim

[usesPython]

Great, so the best time to do riskier plays that require careful posting

[usesPython]

We can probably swing this to Catboi because of my shenanigans ha

Yeah I specifically worded the push to imply that limming catboi over you is optimal in a catboi/AV scumteam since the premise of the argument is that catboi is informed scum and that's why the push from catboi on you is bussing instead of scumhunting

[usesPython]

Thought my post would be a good bit of light distancing hope it wasn’t too blatant (gulp) cos our slots haven’t really interacted in any meaningful way

Nah it's fine, if we don't interact at all that'll be scummier. Feel free to push me harder if you need to, I'm confident enough in diverting pressure that I can make it work

[usesPython]

In fact I'd argue that it doesn't matter how hard you push me today because I'm not enough peoples preferred lim to get limmed today just from you pushing me

[usesPython]

In fact I'd argue that it doesn't matter how hard you push me today because I'm not enough peoples preferred lim to get limmed today just from you pushing me

(Though I'd still keep it to the level you were pushing catboi, otherwise if you push me harder than that it can make you look sus for not pushing catboi that hard)

[usesPython]

I think delta thinks we could have planned it that way? But lol I was like “naw dawg he’s right” halfway through writing my post

Even when you know I'm scum you can't push me

[usesPython]

I just finished page 10 and its time for bed.

I think the scum team is Delta and Kawaii.

I will give more detailed reasons why once Im caught up and if I still believe it.

I think Omi is town.

Im off to bed now and will continue reading tomorrow.

Oh man this is great. The OMI townread can definitely be read as agenda and if they start scumreading you even better

[usesPython]

Honestly I could be persuaded onto kawia or up, just not seeing the overall town vibes from them.
I think up is just coming at the game from a very different headspace to me, which makes it hard to town read them..

I do think Omi is town, but I might be giving them a buy.

Phew, for a second there I thought Bella had a workable reason to lim me instead of just disagreeing with my reads. Also great that I'm in the FOS pool for some people because then it means I don't have to explain why I haven't been NK'd

[usesPython]

I townread Vox and Delta. I townread Dion who was Python's slot.

I also noticed a pattern with both people who was replaced, but I wanted to give Catboi's replacement little bit more time to post before I plan on mentioning the pattern I noticed from them.

Holy crap it's uncanny how identical my reads and reasonings are to Dio, same with Kowahbunga and catboi.

I didn't even read the reasonings Dio was using lmao it's just the first scumcase that came to mind

[usesPython]

But delta is definitely the most widely townread

Does it matter? Delta can't read patch or kawaii to save his life, if both of us stay alive we only need two miselims to win the game.

Do you think the dr is 100% on pod?

If there's a doctor they are 100% on pod tonight.

I'd argue the way to be looking at this nightkill is to consider who is the #1 person we can't afford alive to have in ELO. If we spot a FNslip d2 or we kill the doc n1 then pod has to get NK'd n2, that leaves us with only one other NK.

Spoiler: Full player list

patchwork
KawaiiKame
Deltabreedy
Powerofdeath
OMIGRON
usesPython/Dionysus
catboi/Kowahbunga
AurorusVox
Bellaphant

Spoiler: Townies still alive

patchwork
KawaiiKame
Deltabreedy
Powerofdeath
catboi/Kowahbunga
Bellaphant

Spoiler: Townies that are limmable

patchwork
KawaiiKame
catboi/Kowahbunga
Bellaphant?

Spoiler: Unlimmable townies

Deltabreedy
Powerofdeath

From the townies still alive I want Kawaii and patch alive to get miselimed, that leaves

Spoiler: Townies

Deltabreedy
Powerofdeath
catboi/Kowahbunga
Bellaphant

From that list pod is too risky to NK n1 and delta will probably throw the game. catboi I can maybe swing a miselim on d3 if delta suddenly learns to read patch/kawaii so I'd want Bella dead here

[usesPython]

As for the nightplay, I think we have you both kill and rolecop. pod is probably tracking someone in the list of

Kawaii
patch
usesPython
bella
catboi

in roughly that order, so you should be safe to do stuff at night without outing yourself

[usesPython]

As for PRhunting, we should be looking for FN and Doctor crumbs. Did anything pop out to you on that front this game?

[usesPython]

in roughly that order

order's probably wrong but you're still probably not getting tracked

[usesPython]

Quick skim of everyones first 15 posts for crumbs:

patch - nothing
Kawaii - nothing
Delta - maybe crumbing FN with the "Hi everyone"? I'd check his meta for this but annoyingly he doesn't have a single completed game. Keep an eye out if anyone changes their read on Delta
catboi - Normally I'd consider the "Hi all" crumbing except he does similar intro's as VT in Newbie 2086 and Newbie 2094, and as Mafia Goon in Newbie 2104
Bella - nothing

[usesPython]

catboi - Normally I'd consider the "Hi all" crumbing except he does similar intro's as VT in Newbie 2086 and Newbie 2094, and as Mafia Goon in Newbie 2104

Actually the lack of "~" in that first post is really throwing me off. I'll keep it in the back of my mind as a possible crumb but it's probably not for now

[usesPython]

I think the play for tonight is you kill Bella and rolecop Delta? Not entirely sure on who's the best rolecop target though

[usesPython]

btw you mind posting confirmation here after pming nexus on your night actions? I've seen games where scum holstered n1 because both thought the other was sending the night action

[usesPython]

rn I think the people most likely to accurately read the game would be pod and bella scumreading me and Delta scumreading you, everyone else is likely to tunnel on Kawaii or patch in the short term

[usesPython]

I think the two plays available are:
Nightkill Bella, let town miselim patch, hope no one questions why Bella got killed over Delta, and play for 5p ELO
Nightkill Delta, I push for a patch miselim, and leave myself getting bussed and you playing for 3p ELO as an option

[usesPython]

I think patch probably gets limmed tomorrow either way. I don’t think we necessarily need to bus.

I was thinking of a bus at 5p ELO.

If we do a Delta NK into patch miselim into pod NK though that leaves AV/Python/Kawaii/Bella/catboi as the 5p ELO, which gets a bit awkward because all of those people will either scumread me or have been scumread by me. There I can see Bella push me while Kawaii and catboi are kind of a tossup

Bella NK instead of Delta though leaves AV/Python/Kawaii/Delta/catboi as the 5p ELO, which if they don't read into the NK means I can use me buddying Delta to push a catboi miselim through maybe?

[usesPython]

I don’t think all the people who scumread you being alive is a bad thing. Like why would they still be alive at that point?

Good point, also the patch hammer gives me an excuse to let a headmate that's more likely to get TR'd by Bella front instead without having to explain NK's (since maf couldn't have possibly predicted it for the n1 NK and if they don't kill pod n1 they have to kill them n2)

Screw it: kill Delta, rolecop either catboi or Kawaii so we know who's save to push in ELO?

[usesPython]

rolecop either catboi or Kawaii so we know who's save to push in ELO?

catboi rolecop if we do this I think

[usesPython]

I guess there’s also the q: can we present a viable alternative that suggests we’re in col c and get pod mislimmed instead of killing him?

We know we're in col b so the other townie would claim Doc/FN. If they claimed Doc one of us would need to cc JK/FN/Doc and imply pod or the doc claim is scum. If they claim FN one of us would need to cc JK and call pod scum when they say they have results

[usesPython]

Hope this isn’t inconsiderate to ask, I’ve started to hear about plurality and systems elsewhere on site - is that your experience too?

Yeah we're plural, haven't posted about it on this site though so careful not to out yourself with TMI since you won't have the ability to fall back on "I read their past games"

[usesPython]

Yeah we're plural, haven't posted about it on this site though so careful not to out yourself with TMI since you won't have the ability to fall back on "I read their past games"

Like I don't care if people know, I'll straight up explain plurality and use it for AtE if I see the opportunity here

[usesPython]

You still think it’s better loading the actions on me?

If I get tracked I’ll have to claim jk so that pod could be lying but then 2-3 will know I’m lying (tracker + doc or fn + fn target)

If you got tracked you could claim doctor which would result in up to 2 people knowing you’re lying (doc or fn+target)

If we claim vt, without any cc, we’ll be outed as lying

Ahh duck it if we get tracked I think we’re buggered anyway and tbh patch is surely attracting the track tonight

I’ll submit now

Yeah I don't think pod tracks you here. Even if they track who they think I'm partnered with because they expect me to offload actions onto my partner, they're still probably tracking patch instead because I defended them to Bella and Delta

[usesPython]

I also think if I don’t bus you that will make you seem more town since patch has made such a fuss of how I bus my partners lol

Yeah if anything if a bus has to happen it'd probably seem more realistic if I bus you than the other way around since I already have logical progression for it and can use it to secure a catboi miselim the next day

[usesPython]

I might hang back at the start of the day to let others build the steam on the wagon but if it looks like it’s swinging our way I’ll jump in.

I'm gonna go in swinging on patch ASAP, need the TR from Bella and can't get it if I join later since I want to look like I'm town tunneling due to perceiving anti-town behaviour as scummy

[usesPython]

Kawaii just FN'd me, pod is our n2 nk

[usesPython]

Sure I can confirm FN exists

[usesPython]

But obvs don’t out who the fn is

Yeah I know, I literally wrote the guide

[usesPython]

Yeah we need to get a pod elim today or we just lose. I think keeping KK alive is actually optimal in that case because it allows for the "Why not kill the known FN?" WIFOM

[usesPython]

Point out that if patch was roleblocker then pod getting results would out patch

[usesPython]

When talking about why you JK'd patch

[usesPython]

Also for the "why the push", since I confirmed FN exists maf must have a rolecop and so would know that it's an FN/JK game if they rolecopped you. Since they cant kill you without an FN cc it's better to force a miselim here right now instead of risking JK stopping a kill

[usesPython]

When talking about why you JK'd patch

And that in a tracker/JK game it's suicidal for scum to try going for the tracker when they know a JK is in the game

[usesPython]

I mean we would have been in just as much trouble if you only did one action since you'd still be in a cc battle (Since if you confirm their results I have to cc you). When I got FN'd by KK your only real option was to call pod I liar if they ever checked you

[usesPython]

Come on Bella, I need you to ride that pod didn’t die suspicion to a vote…kowah I have no idea where he’ll land…KK unvoting is good for now but we’ll see…patch hopefully is locked in…

Here's a thought: I slowly spend the day working up to a pod hammer if we get the votes, you get limmed tomorrow and then I take KK and patch to 3p elo

The fact that KK FN'd me probably indicates I'm not scumread by them yet, if I can get a natural enough progression onto pod in their eyes I might be able to get a TR from KK by 3p elo (Especially because KK "would" have died n2 if I was scum)

[usesPython]

Hmm the only risk with that is if he’s FN’d whoever you take to 3p with you then you literally have no chance

How so? In a Kawaii/patch/Python ELO I just put a vote on patch then start scumcasing

[usesPython]

Gonna see if I can spin pod having wanted me to fake Doc as an agenda

[usesPython]

THANK YOU BELLA FOR GIVING ME AMMO IN 3P ELO WITH YOU

[usesPython]

Kawaii silently putting pod at E-1 is pretty cool, wonder if Kowah or Bella notice it

[usesPython]

Also we're doing great, I think kowah elim n2 and then play for bella/python/Kawaii or patch ELO is gonna need to happen though

[usesPython]

kowahs reads are too accurate so they need to go, with a kowah nk I get the added bonus of implicating bella along with myself. It's just the question of KK or patch for the last person in elo

KK in elo means patch gets nightkilled which raises a lot of questions, patch in elo means I dont get the benefit of buddying up with KK

[usesPython]

Everything up to n3 is fine, it's just that at n3 I need to be considering what the best ELO is that doesn't also implicate me. Bella is good because kowah is sussing her + she baited FN + her posting is kind of weak

[usesPython]

God Kowah is just doing our job for us, this is great

[usesPython]

I think it might be a good idea to just not talk? idk, if you think you've got something we can workshop it over the night phase

[usesPython]

Up to you lol, you're a free scum rn

[usesPython]

Oh yeah pod makes a good point: I don't need a reason to NK kowah because they've been rolecopped so they have to be town, there's no reason for scum to let them live

[usesPython]

Nah if I vote I'd have to comment on the hammer, better to just make it look like I was still reading and ISOing

[usesPython]

I still can't believe we pulled through that so easily, god bless people not calling E-1

[usesPython]

I think we’d have gotten pod limmed anyway

[usesPython]

Do you have any other post hammer plays you want to make before I reveal it’s been dropped?

Is there even a reason to reveal the hammer before the mod does? The current casual dynamic is pretty good for not standing out

[usesPython]

Read the first letter of each sentence in my latest post lol

LMAO

[usesPython]

Thread locked, guess the votecounts coming now

[usesPython]

The day took less than 24 hours lmao

[usesPython]

I sent the NK for Kowahbunga through PM already lol

[usesPython]

Yeah should definitely self-hammer, especially if town doesn't realize they can't put you at E-1 without instantly ending the day

[usesPython]

Current plan is d3 push patch and Kawaii for their bad votes, n3 nk bella, d4 push patch with the following reasoning:

D3 I pushed Kawaii and patch to guarantee a correct crossvote regardless of the NK and also guarantee a solve depending on the nightkill, since by doing so I implied that Bella is the FN

If Bella gets NK'd -> patch was trying to force a Kawaii/patch crossvote and assumed Bella was FN, implicates patch
If I get NK'd -> Would seem to imply patch trying to force a Kawaii/patch crossvote but actually implicates Bella by PoE because if patch was trying to do that I'd be dead instead.
If patch gets NK'd -> doesn't actually help Kawaii reach a solve but it still guarantees a correct Bella/Python crossvote due to FN being alive
If Kawaii gets NK'd -> guarantees a correct Bella/Python crossvote because Bella presumably gets FN'd n2. There's no real reason for patch to make this kill

[usesPython]

Yeah it's so that patch thinks Bella was FN for me ignoring Bella, since I'm assuming patch doesn't get FN'd here

[usesPython]

I’d say that it kinda doesn’t work because your plan assumes you make it to d4 ie it suggests you know you wouldn’t get NK’d cos otherwise you’ve stitched up the FN ie KK might think he’s made endgame with two townies and hasn’t FN’d either one?

I'll probably change some of the mech specifics (I can fudge a few things if I only have to worry about Kawaii or patch, especially if I only explain by ELO. They're not too good at mech)

Idea is that if I get NK'd or Bella gets NK'd it immediately implies a scum!Patch game since Bella getting shot means patch thought they were FN and wanted a KK/patch crossvote with Kawaii getting voted (I've publicly sussed Kawaii harder than patch) and me getting shot still implicates patch since it implies patch wanted to take it to a KK/patch crossvote and didn't know KK was FN

[usesPython]

Like it's pretty obvious to town!Python that Kawaii is unlimmable given that I've been FN'd. Kowah is guaranteed to get shot because they're confirmed due to being rolecopped, you're guaranteed to be limmed. That just leaves the playerbase to:
Python - Already FN'd
Kawaii - FN
patch
Bella

By ELO every single person should have been FN'd, it's only the day before ELO that patch won't know KK is FN

[usesPython]

Also I worded it wrong; I'm not pushing them for voting pod, I'm pushing them for voting pod with basically no progression. If they had a progression like Kowah where questions are asked, thoughts are made, and then a vote is placed I wouldn't really have much to comment on

[usesPython]

I see, he should have FN’d one of Bella or patch n2 and the other n3

And if he lives to elo he’ll think whoever he didn’t tell until n3 must be maf cos he didn’t die

I think patch is the right push regardless because he voted pod without engaging with the game really

The concern is that kawaii won’t understand your mega mind play, but if you’re given time to explain it, it might work out. Is this a play you’d make as town?

I mean the key points of "It's safe for me to push Kawaii because I know it's impossible for them to be miselimed" and "I was making sure that if patch is scum they don't elim you" should be pretty simple to understand, as long as I don't get instavoted it should be fine

[usesPython]

and "Is this a play I'd make as town?" is the wrong question I think, better question is does that play make patch more likely to get limmed than I do. Not like Kawaii or patch know my meta

[usesPython]

Yeah. I only asked because the mega mind thinking strikes me more as something scum would do as a setup than a realistic town thought process but maybe you’re more thoughtful than me in that sense ha

I mean the progression should be there to see given that I made The Chart^TM

[usesPython]

also lol I just realised I have more posts here than in the game thread

[usesPython]

I fully expect to go down asap tomorrow unless someone wants to slow the roll and get reads out.

Would be a unique experience being confScum for a full 7 days lol

Careful not to get prodded for inactivity

[usesPython]

Actually I just realized there's a pretty big hole in my ELO plan: an AV/patch scumteam can only believe Bella is FN if I was rolecopped n2, otherwise if Kawaii is rolecopped they know they're FN and if Bella was rolecopped they know Bella is VT

[usesPython]

It’s up to you my man if you can still argue it but the suspicion you’ll draw from KK and kk’s n2 target needs to be outweighed if you go down that route

Yeah new plan:

1. Ask for clarification from patch and Kawaii about their pod progression
2. Make a The Chart 2^TM for the mech that's relevant in 3p ELO
3. NK Kawaii N3 for a Python/Bella/Patch endgame while dismissing any concerns of "why this endgame specifically" from either side by pointing out that Kowah was confirmed town after the pod flip and Kawaii was either rolecop PoE'd with AV's n2 rolecop results or just straight up rolecopped N2 or Bella is scum and Kawaii FN'd them

[usesPython]

Because in that endgame I can probably swing a patch vote from Bella and just hammer it

[usesPython]

Drafting this up rn to post tomorrow:



Seeing as there's a decent chance that no one in 3p ELO is going to be good at mech I drafted this over N2 and I'm posting this now in case I get NK'd.

Spoiler: Known night actions at this point with mechanically confirmed alignments colored in

N1:

Powerofdeath

tracks

AurorusVox

Friendly Neighbor

visits usesPython/patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

Kowahbunga

AurorusVox

kills

Deltabreedy

N2:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

???

AurorusVox/Mafia Goon

kills

Kowahbunga

N3:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

Mafia Goon

kills

???

Given that

Kowahbunga

is confirmed

town

because they got rolecopped by

AurorusVox

and

AurorusVox

is confirmed

Rolecop

because he got tracked by

Powerofdeath

, we can assume the following:

Spoiler: 1. By 3p ELO, the Friendly Neighbor will have visited everyone assuming they survive that long

Given that by N2 all

townies

knew

Kowahbunga

was

town

due to knowing that

Powerofdeath

was

Tracker

and

AurorusVox

rolecoped

Kowahbunga

, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:

patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

Since the

Friendly Neighbor

has N2 and N3 to visit people, as long as they visit every night they are guaranteed to have been mod-confirmed by 3p ELO. Furthermore, since

scum

can't take advantage of knowing who the

Friendly Neighbor

is if they find out by being visited N3, it is optimal for the

Friendly Neighbor

to visit N3 as well, in case an FN'd person dies and the other person they visited N1/N2 is

Mafia Goon

who fakeclaims

Friendly Neighbor

Spoiler: 2. Scum have a 66% chance of correctly guessing who the Friendly Neighbor is assuming they weren't visited N1/N2

Given that

scum

know

Kowahbunga

is

Vanilla Townie

due to rolecopping them, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:
patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

In the case where scum don't believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then scum obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means scum assume the last person in the list is

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space: scum have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping VT * 1/2 chance of guessing incorrectly on if I am

Friendly Neighbor

= 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

In the case where scum believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then scum obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means scum have a 50% chance of randomly guessing the

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space: scum have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping VT * 1/2 chance of guessing the other VT = 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

[usesPython]

Are you still allowing for a world in which you were potentially claiming FN d2?

EV wise for VT!Python it's better to leave the possibility of being FN open instead of outright claiming VT, since at that point it means that the chance of FN dying by ELO goes from 66% to 100%

[usesPython]

Since I confirmed the existence of an FN d2, it implies I'm either FN or was FN'd n1. In either case there's no reason for me to be FN'd n2 onwards

[usesPython]

We’re getting close to the thread reopening. I’m excited! I really think I might survive today. Maybe I should offer to tell them who my partner is if they don’t lim me today

/s

Just tell them your partner is Nexus, I'm sure they'll believe you and lim them first

[usesPython]

I see you're already crumbing lol

[usesPython]

Imagine if someone accidentally voted for a townie

[usesPython]

No way patch actually falls for that lmao

[usesPython]

Yeah but if they do that they don't survive ELO, since I can just say that the reason no one hammered me is because they were scum

[usesPython]

They're getting a good nights rest for this difficult 5p ELO

[usesPython]

I feel like a Kawaii/patch/Python ELO is actually way more winnable than a Bella/patch/Python ELO because if you know what to look for patch is just bleeding town

And I've got the excuse of "Well Bella was also never getting limmed in ELO so the optimal play is to keep the person more likely to misvote alive"

[usesPython]

Do you think you could push patch to vote Bella in elo? Or do you think patch would assume it’s you?

if vox flips scum it's probably python, if python flips scum it's either kk or vox

[usesPython]

Like Bella doesn't even enter their mind as possible scum, ain't no way in hell I can get patch to vote bella there

[usesPython]

I mean if I was on the outside looking in, it looks like I’m pushing patch to vote one of you or KK so Bella can quick hammer from the shadows

Yeah but buying that requires enough paranoia brain to think of it, patch ain't gonna go further than "Bella feels town, time to vote Python"

[usesPython]

I’m gonna suggest he votes KK to confirm them as scum when no one hammers…think that’d work lol?

no shot that actually works but if you think it's progression you'd make

[usesPython]

Yeah Bella's getting back like 3-6 hours earlier than patch, you won't have time

[usesPython]

Wait Bella's V/LA? That might work then

[usesPython]

Bella looks like they're on a European timezone so we should have ~24 hours before they check back in, plenty of time for patch to misvote if they were gonna do it today

[usesPython]

That’s the hope ahhh

ngl I'd feel really bad for the dead town that have to watch this game if it ends in 5p ELO like that

[usesPython]

Like it should be impossible to screw up 5p ELO here if you're town

[usesPython]

pod philosophical question for you, promise it's relevant:

You're playing a closed setup and roll Town Informed. You are given two usernames and told one is scum and one is town. Assuming both of them are alive by d2, do you fake a cop guilty on one of them? Why or why not?

I do that all the time in those mini mafia games I play

You should definitely use this while trying to convince patch

[usesPython]

Like pod outright admitted faking results is part of their town meta

[usesPython]

Also about 30 minutes from now I won't be able to post for ~6-8 hours, hopefully the vote doesn't happen while I'm gone lol

[usesPython]

cmon patch, take the vote bait and give me a hammer

[usesPython]

Are you actually disappearing btw or still keeping an eye out for quickhammer on KK opportunity?

I'll be up for like an hour or two, if it doesn't look like patch'll vote I'll go to bed

[usesPython]

oh cool patch confirmed they're not voting, off to bed then

[usesPython]

There's the hammer, see you after the game

[usesPython]

Kawaii/patch/Python endgame, gonna start the day with a drafted wall that assumes a patch/bella/python endgame

[usesPython]

Yeah def a better chance than bella does

[usesPython]

Mafia action sent, at this point I'm just gonna use this thread as an impromptu notes PT

[usesPython]

Right now basic idea of the Bella/patch/Python ELO is to analyze what the point of the d3 AV/patch interactions were. Key points to go over are "AV tried to buddy patch because Bella was his partner and would deny being FN'd" and "AV buddying patch was WIFOM theater to make patch look townie by association".

Things to bring up in support of "AV buddying patch was WIFOM theater to make patch look townie by association":

-Patch hammering before Bella could come back from V/LA and confirm/deny they were FN'd. Bella confirming they were FN'd makes the whole plan fall apart since otherwise there's no reason for AV to be buddying patch
-The underlying motivation for doing it instead of just shutting up. If it's an AV/Bella or AV/Python game all AV has to do to win is shut up and let patch get voted in 3p ELO. If that's the case, why didn't he do that?

Things to bring up in support of "AV tried to buddy patch because Bella was his partner and would deny being FN'd":

-He really looked like he was actually trying to get a miselim through. If that's the case, why target his scum partner?

[usesPython]

First draft

Drafted this during the night phase but haven't had time to do an editing pass so you're getting the raw reads, if you see bad logic be sure to point it out:

What was the point of the patch/AV interactions d3? Way I see it, since AV is confscum at that point every single post has to be weighed against the EV of just shutting up. Thus to answer that question we have to consider which scumteam can win with AV just shutting up and which scumteam can't.

AV/Bella:
You kidding? Neither patch or myself are likely to vote this, more realistically patch and I crossvote each other and scum!Bella hammers

AV/Python:
Bella already scumread patch pretty hard, what would be the point when realistically I could swing a patch elim?

AV/patch:
Absolute uphill battle of an ELO, I vote patch every time so it'd be a fight to try and get Bella to miselim

Next the consideration of which scumteam benefits from the interactions:

AV/Bella:
Theoretically could be used to paranoia brain me into voting Bella but what's the point? I'd already vote patch anyways

AV/patch:
Getting read as being pocketed by AV gives them a fighting chance to push a miselim on me

AV/Python:
Literally -EV, what would be the point of making the only limmable person look town?

This does raise one issue though: in an AV/Bella game AV could theoretically swing a Kawaii or Python miselim from patch if Bella denies being visited.

Part 2: The hammer

Why did patch hammer before Bella could come back from V/LA to confirm or deny the existance of the FN?

Strictly speaking, it's always +EV for town!Patch to wait for Bella to come back and either confirm or deny the FN since in the case of confirming the FN limming AV is always safe and in the case of denying the FN you collapse the game into a single 50/50 where the only person that could screw up would be patch. This raises the question: why didn't patch wait?

Part 3: The meta

Since patch recently finished a scum game I can now meta them.

i feel like im more careful as town and less careful as scum

I wanna ask, does lolhammering twice in one game sound like they're being careful or not?

[usesPython]

Updated version

Drafted this during the night phase but haven't had time to do an editing pass so you're getting the raw reads, if you see bad logic be sure to point it out:

What was the point of the patch/AV interactions d3? Way I see it, since AV is confscum at that point every single post has to be weighed against the EV of just shutting up. Thus to answer that question we have to consider which scumteam can win with AV just shutting up and which scumteam can't.

AV/Bella:
You kidding? Neither patch or myself are likely to vote this, more realistically patch and I crossvote each other and scum!Bella hammers

AV/Python:
Bella already scumread patch pretty hard, scum!Python could probably swing a patch elim?

AV/patch:
Absolute uphill battle of an ELO, I vote patch every time so it'd be a fight to try and get Bella to miselim me

Next the consideration of which scumteam benefits from the interactions:

AV/Bella:
Theoretically could be used to paranoia brain me into voting patch but what's the point? I'd already vote patch anyways

AV/patch:
Getting read as being pocketed by AV gives them a fighting chance to push a miselim on me

AV/Python:
Literally -EV, what would be the point of making the only limmable person look town?

This does raise one issue though: in an AV/Bella game AV could theoretically swing a Kawaii or Python miselim from patch if Bella denies being visited.

Part 2: The hammer

Why did patch hammer before Bella could come back from V/LA to confirm or deny the existance of the FN?

Strictly speaking, it's always +EV for town!Patch to wait for Bella to come back and either confirm or deny the FN since in the case of confirming the FN limming AV is always safe and in the case of denying the FN you collapse the game into a single 50/50 where the only person that could screw up would be patch. This raises the question: why didn't patch wait?

Part 3: The meta

Since patch recently finished a scum game I can now meta them.

i feel like im more careful as town and less careful as scum

I wanna ask, does lolhammering twice in one game sound like they're being careful or not?



Patch unless you can explain all these points and make a Bella scumcase I'm just gonna vote you, I don't see it being Bella here

[usesPython]

python only knows I visited her n1
I failed to submit night actions n2, I visited bella n3

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

[usesPython]

Really hoping kawaii doesn't replace out, would be pretty bad for us

[usesPython]

fuck, i can't even push you. kawaii's just going to believe you because everything you've done this game has been carefully laid-out. we lose.

patch you failing to scum case python indicates python is not scum, tell me why python is scum, I will be hammering you if you don't
Everything python has done in this game is town in my eyes, python's solving, the solve is python is town until scum casing

POG