Micro 676: Bill Wurtz Mafia (Game Over)
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You know, it's quite rude to assume.Comm wrote:There is no explanation for your immediate switch. I assume you'll say because I joined some band wagon or that putting someone at L2 this early is "scummy". Both terrible reasons.
Are you aware of site meta?Comm wrote:Do not forget, you also voted for him, thus any unvote warrants that you randomly voted as a poor joke vote or to seem active in the first stage of the Day 1.
I disagree with the premise that an early claim on d1 is good for town; this is sort of the common consensus on mafiascum as well.Comm wrote:By unvoting you take away someone from claiming and having real discussion happen for the rest of Day 1.
If you want a more serious theory discussion of this I'm happy to give it to you; an early claim is bad relative to a late claim for two reasons. One, asking an arbitrary person to claim is a bad idea as that person may later have become obvious town, making their claimed status a detriment; two, to more directly address the point you're making, it warps discussion around the claim. A great example of this is one of my recently completed games (Gamma Emerald was in it as well); we had a town ascetic claim on page one, and discussion warped entirely around that claim for the next several pages. He was then counterclaimed and the entire day's discussion warped around the two of them. This kind of discussion is generally easy for scum to hide in because they don't have to take nuanced stances; they can merely say "I believe/disbelieve the claim because X" and claim relative ignorance of the rest of the game.Comm wrote:Simple. A claim early on is good for town, it gives us plenty of time to discuss. However, one has already made his motives clear with no words spoken from his unvote. Do tell me if I'm wrong to assume not explaining a vote and unvote while also delaying discussion to be scum motivated. Correct?
Okay, you clearly don't know site meta if you think this. This is simply not true. I can pretty much guarantee that there's no doctor if there is a cop unless scum have a roleblocker or strongman or the like. And even then, that combination has drifted massively out of style over the course of the past decade. It's incredibly rare to have roles that are worth claiming in combination with roles that can protect them. Especially in such a small game. It's also *VERY* probably 2:7 (or even 2:1:6) rather than 3:6.Comm wrote:This is a quick set-up game. No real specialties going on. It's safe to assume there's at least a cop and doctor active with possible other town PRs if we have 3 mafia.
Why yes, I am quite guilty of skirting by for the first severalPerhaps he hoped to skirt by without someone noticing that lack of contribution to the discussion even this early on.hoursof the game. HowdareI.
Ever so slight tendency to agree.Parama wrote:current impression is that Comm is town but very misguided. dunno about anyone else.-
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Anyway, my actual reasons to have voted Comm include:
-I often like to make a vote switch on page one; it usually generates discussion in a good way.
-He votes and says that he wants to force a claim, yet says that he'll fos any additional voters, which is a direct contradiction under the typical site meta of claiming at L-1+hammer threat. This is of course resolved because it's clear Comm does not know site meta.
I have a somewhat scummy first impression of Kain. The Comm vote looks somewhat awkward/opportunistic simply by virtue of only happening after mine, yet having reasoning that was already available when Kain made post 13. 17 jumps to conclusions, accusing Comm of refusing to take his vote off and tunneling pretty shortly after the vote on Transcend. It looks like jumping on the easy target. The last line of 23 reads as trying to keep options open to switch to a wagon on me if Comm starts being read as town.
Unvote
VOTE: Kain-
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Fun fact. Last game I played was 2:5. Day one ended in a quicklynch on page 1. The L-3 and L-0 votes were from town. The L-2 and L-1 votes were from scum. Of course this is just a single case, but etc.In post 33, Transcend wrote:Nvm i don't tr tweet
I tr connan
I thought tweet L-2'd me when i was phone scrolling, but it was connan
Why is page 1 wagoning a towntell in and of itself? This seems like a pretty lazy first post of the game.-
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you didn't even correctly read who made the vote the first time you looked at it :SIn post 37, Transcend wrote:I felt the vote was genuine rather than opportunistic.
Btw I'm not here to wow you with my opinions, I'm just here to lynch scum
w/e. If the reason goes beyond simply voting you then it's a more minor gripe.-
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Well if you're not going to read my posts because they're walls then maybe there's a reason that you don't know why i've done things ^_^Transcend wrote:I don't know why he stopped why he started
Your earlier analysis... that I'm flying under the radar... when I'm clearly not?CommKnight wrote:As I said, I'm comfortable with my earlier analysis.
Isn't analysis that someone has a particular strategy of flying under the radar contingent on them, you know, doing that?
Quick reads in a forum mafia setting are extremely different from quick reads in an IRC setting.Transcend wrote:I get reads quickly as well. I can't speak for syr, but games on my home site last on average 20 minutes.
Still have more to say but heading to work shortly.-
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@Transcend: what do you think of Storm's vote vs Kain's vote (and further justification)?
@Syryana: I am quite curious to hear more. What are you referring to with regards to setup spec?
@Stormcloud:
Not necessarily inclined to say it's scummy, but your vote hop to CK is a bit strange. Thinking over your reads is well and good but flipping your read from a justified nullread to a justified scumread over the course of two posts is a bit odd, since you presumably read over CK's posts before calling him a nullread. Did you see the line where he said he was locking in his vote on me when you made post 53, or did you just entirely miss it? Given that Kain also used it to further justify his vote in 17 it seems like a strange thing to miss (although I actually missed that line of CK's post and misinterpreted what Kain was referring to so :X). With early reads, your mileage may vary from player to player or from game to game (I've had games where I struggle to form any solid reads the entirety of day one, I've had games where I come out of page ~3ish with several strong townreads and occasionally a decent scumread).-
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This is fine but I would also prefer avoiding more than, oh, let's go with octuple-posts.In post 87, Parama wrote:(keep your posts as short as the average bill wurtz video, is all i'm saying)-
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Transcend, was there any particular reason you chose this game to debut this new methodology?
When did you decide you'd be playing this game in this way? Right before making post 49?
I'm having a bit of trouble seeing this whole spiel as intellectually genuine; the reasoning in 98 looks suspiciously identical to typical reasoning with the one smallish added wrinkle that you ignore me and kain because you think the two of us aren't a team. Apart from that it's entirely PoE. In fact that too is PoE. As far as I can tell this is pretty much the same old reasoning that mafia players typically used but dressed up with some fancy hats. And it feels somewhat manufactured.-
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Forgive me for I am about to either wallpost or spampost because i've been watching a speedrun since i got back from work. Alas.
This is incredibly silly. If I'm scum, I know that there's a chance I'll be found suspicious or noteworthy for switching a vote without a reason. This isn't an "easy slip up." This is an incredibly easily avoidable mistake as scum, if it is actually a mistake. Scum do not "just need to lynch town." They need to lynch town and avoid looking scummy so that they aren't lynched instead/lynched on future days. If I'm scum and re-voting without reason is really such an egregious mistake as you imply it is, then I as scum have no reason to do it... I can simply give reasoning or not switch my vote.Comm wrote:Switching a vote without explaining reasoning is something a scum easily slips up.
You're right that I can theoretically have made up the motivation for my vote on you after the fact but that does not give me motivation to do it as scum. If you're saying that the motivation is to lynch you then I seriously question your characterization of an L-4 singleton vote as "opportunistic."
Engaging with you is pointless anyway if you're locking yourself into a vote, especially considering how full of yourself you seem; it's just so backwards that you're locking your vote on me with the (at least partial) logic that we can't have solid discussion without a claim yet you flatly refusing to consider other possibilities until I claim stifles the degree of analysis you can give.
It's really just a nice stark contrast to see you, a stereotypical player who seems convinced that their way is the one true way to play mafia and they are just so much better than others (at least, that's the vibe i get from 119), next to storm, the first player I've seen in a long time who seems to show a shred of humility. Alas.-
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I tend to think Syryana and Storm are town at this point. Can justify either of those further if desired. I like Kain's argumentation towards storm, so he leans more town at this point. I also still lean town on Comm, but only weakly. I think he could quite easily just be tunneling me so that he doesn't have to give nuanced opinions, but gut says it's a bit more likely he'd be making this kind of play as town. I guess it ultimately comes down to evaluating how likely it is that Comm would genuinely have the thought process that would lead to fossing me this strongly as town, since it's somewhat likely that the mere fact of tunneling is a null playstyle trait. Unfortunately and quite clearly I'm not going to be able to put myself in his shoes very effectively.
It's believable enough. I mean, it was sort of a minor point to begin with. I tend to think that the mere fact of an RVS wagon or an "opportunistic" RVS vote is somewhat mitigated by the fact that scum have little reason to do something so overt so early except to try to garner towncred. The vote was as much for the other minor things I mentioned. But I think they're not as significant as the reasons to townread Kain for his rhetoric towards Storm.MT wrote:I find this explanation pretty believable. @Implo, what do you think?
Not sure yet what to think of Morning Tweet. The way she talks to Storm at the beginning is interesting; it seems decently town-motivated but there's a definite potential scum motivation there of asking questions and starting to get into the thick of things and read the pulse of the game before committing to reads, since she doesn't explicitly say what she thinks about Storm until agreeing with Parama in 90. Until then she somewhat implies a scumread by calling Storm's reasoning non-genuine but *shrug*. I do like the direction of the questions she's been asking; they're good questions.
Parama/Gamma are null for now I think.-
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As for Transcend: I still think he's scummy. Frankly it feels like he's trying way too hard relative to how it felt like he played in my other game with him. In that game he seemed overall irreverent, making snyde comments and commenting on a sort of arbitrary subset of the things that were being said (of course it was a large normal so there's a difference there but etc). Something feels off about his entry into the game and I think it's that it feels like he's going "hey guys I have reads look at me." I sort of have trouble seeing a snap reaction to 11 of "this vote on me looks genuine". Which is what Transcend claims his snap judgment was. My personal snap judgment of that post is "that's a lot of words for an RVS post" (to be clear, at this point I don't really have an opinion on it). It just seems like he wanted to call it a genuine post to say "hey guys, I'm townreading the guy who put me at L-2, look at me, I don't care if I'm lynched, I must be town!" I think that scum motivation is more likely than the likelihood of him reading that post, thinking it was particularly genuine, misreading who made the post, and deciding to open the game with that.
The way he's doing the PoE stuff still feels somewhat manufactured for reasons mentioned. The future rhetoric around it makes his gamma vote look like a lazy vote that avoids him having to further justify it. He ends up effectively abandoning the team reasoning anyway and going with a fos-driven vote on me.
There's also a gut feeling that his demeanor is meaningfully tonally different from the last game I played with him, which is harder to elaborate on.-
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Gonna be honest didn't actually read this until nowIn post 245, Parama wrote:
for someone complaining about people making too short of posts, this entire paragraph is literally useless fluff and it's like a quarter of your wallpostIn post 119, CommKnight wrote:For balance reasons, I'm willing to place my bet on there being either 2 town PR's and a mafia PR or if it really is all VT, then there is definitely a 3rd party. As 2 mafia in a 7 VT vs 2 would be a bit unfair for them and 3 mafia vs 6 VT would be unfair to us. It's just at that number where a PR or 3rd party must be active to balance things out. Which in games with a Neutral 3rd party (one who can win with any) or who's win conditions do not stop town's win conditions, I do not mind aiding by the way. Town of Salem which people seem to keep pinning me to (even though it's only one medium I play on... hah... medium... curse...), people on there are rather... ignorant. For example, if we have a known executioner and their target is a useless role, I'm willing to sacrifice a useless role to gain a non-killable townie (they would've won so no reason to side with mafia and counts as a confirmed vote against them for LYLO). Even survivors, who can vest and when mixed with a transporter can create a movable shield for town. However, in RT mafia, most players are unable to think that critically and just see "not town" as inherently bad. For those who've played the game and know the Jester role, I've managed to help a Jester win while getting a mafia killed. Mafia were tricking town, but I whispered the Jester to kill a certain somebody if he guiltied him. Well, I managed to get mafia to guilty him and got 2 birds with one stone.
but tl;dr 2 vanilla scum vs 7 VTs is VERY scumsided both in theory and in practice (see: the current newbie setup).
Also the mod has said this setup is normal which means the only third party that can even possibly exist is a serial killer. In case no one's mentioned that yet.
Actually it's just straight-up illogical that you're saying 7:2 mountainous is townsided and 7:2 with two town PRs and a scum PR is balanced?-
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Do you really think that the faint echoes of Gamma's RVS vote are something that you'd avoid going along with as scum with him? I personally wouldn't have had any problem making my vote if I were scum with him.In post 254, Parama wrote:yup, i'm scum with gamma, you got me
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If your problem is with me using a single game for meta i can point you to an example of me doing this in a game that recently finished where i got a strong read on someone based on a single game with themIn post 255, Parama wrote:
aaahh, crap,In post 233, implosion wrote:As for Transcend: I still think he's scummy. Frankly it feels like he's trying way too hard relative to how it felt like he played in my other game with him.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: implosion
no no no no no no
(NOOOO)
i think this is L-1 tbh, someone hammer, this is scum & i'm probably wrong on transcend
if it's not then clarify-
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I do that as town these days (see first paragraph in that post)In post 258, Parama wrote:p-edit: the problem is you're using meta-
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good to hear
it means more when you say it more than once-
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I have relatively little more to say.
Parama is being a twit for voting me for an objectively debunkable reason.
Kain's vote on me seems completely arbitrary.
I think everyone in this game except Comm can agree the reasoning for his vote on me is awful.
Transcend's vote is frankly the least objectionable but I still think he's scum.
The wagon on me is really, really terrible. I'm curious why you're considering intent to hammer, syryana, given you've stated three people you'd rather lynch than me. The game's nominally stalled for like 1 RL day for reasons that are primarily gamma declaring a 6 day VLA. That hardly seems like reason to declare intent to hammer on a nullread in a game that's in a state that's generating useful information from competing wagons.
I'm happy to chat with anyone tomorrow. But seriously, just look at the stated reasoning for my wagon. Comm voted me for an "opportunistic" L-4 vote on him and refuses to remove the vote out of pure obstinateness. Parama's vote is based on a single fact, that I used meta, which I have clearly shown I do in town games. Kain gave some nonsensical reasoning and self-described his vote as an opportunistic wagon jump.
Transcend's vote on me isn't really bad but other things point to him being scum. I honestly just don't see a shred of a solid reason for town-Transcend to be disheartened at this game. He had a few votes on him, got me to L-1 but didn't (yet) lynch me, and then claimed he lost all motivation and gave up.
Does that seriously sound like town genuinely trying to figure the game out?
No, it sounds like scum who sees their eventual lynch as inevitable and who doesn't think they can make legitimate arguments to convince more people to join them in voting the person they're pushing.-
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I wouldn't accuse most players of it. I accuse Transcend specifically of it because his other game was so materially different and it's the simplest way to explain it.
None of his posts in the other game I played with him (link if anyone cares) looked like he was trying to look like town, or really had any particular care for how people viewed him.
He never talked about himself early, he just fluffposted and gave lots of reads. Compare 37, 43, 49, etc, etc. Lots of these posts look like posts where he cares how the posts are perceived. Some of this is at a gut level, but other small things like 54 are good examples where he's explaining his playstyle, presumably in an attempt to get people to understand "this is how i play as town." That isn't what I saw from transcend in the other game, he just didn't seem to care how he was perceived.-
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do you actually think that was a real hammer or are you being facetious?In post 328, Transcend wrote:Imp give your final thoughts if town or your pr reads if scum i guess
Not a big fan of that hammer but whatever-
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and do you ACTUALLY think that i, as scum, would be fooled by that given that I *just* enumerated the people on my wagon.
Twice.
In the last post I made.
About 15 minutes ago.
I honestly just do not believe that you're being genuine right now, Transcend. Walk me through how that post makes sense to make.-
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I don't believe youIn post 332, Transcend wrote:Pedit: okay yeah i knew it was a fake hammer but we hadn't had a vc in a while so i wanted to see if it would get a rxn out of you by making it look more realistic.
it makes no sense to reaction test me in that situation for the reasons i just mentioned
you're just trying to get towncred.-
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so because you are "trying to consider me as town," I am obligated to townread you or you'll continue to scumread me?In post 334, Transcend wrote:I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge
Am I misinterpreting this? because this actually makes 0 sense.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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If I'm not misinterpreting that then that's just like
if you're town your read on me should be mostly independent of my read on you
ESPECIALLY when you yourself claim that you're bad at being read as town, you should be understanding if i could be town who's misreading you.
It makes 0 sense for you to say anything you've said on this page as town.-
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i'm literally asking you to clarifyIn post 337, Transcend wrote:If you're town i expect you to take everything i say at face value and not immediately shut down everything i say.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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In post 335, implosion wrote:
so because you are "trying to consider me as town," I am obligated to townread you or you'll continue to scumread me?In post 334, Transcend wrote:I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge
Am I misinterpreting this?because this actually makes 0 sense.
i actually have no idea what you are claiming to want from meIn post 336, implosion wrote:If I'm not misinterpreting that thenthat's just like
if you're town your read on me should be mostly independent of my read on you
ESPECIALLY when you yourself claim that you're bad at being read as town, you should be understanding if i could be town who's misreading you.
It makes 0 sense for you to say anything you've said on this page as town.-
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i will ask again.
Please explain why you tried to reaction test me when it clearly wasn't going to work since I had just listed the people on my wagon, and
Please explain what this means:
if it does not mean that you expect me to budge on my read of you or else you're going to keep scumreading me.I just now tried to consider you town and you didn't budge so I'm assuming you're gonna try and get me mislynched before going down.-
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well maybe you should learn how to have some semblance of self-awareness if you're claiming that you have trouble being read as townIn post 346, Transcend wrote:What things do you want clarified? I really don't care how i play the game and I'm not observant of what I'm doing unless it's a strategy/gambit.-
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I'm not claiming that you're being scummy in every post. I explicitly said I don't find your vote on me particularly bad.
Of course I'm trying to avoid death. Survivalism is not a scumtell. Coincidentally the competing wagon is on my main scumtell.
Do you really think survivalism is a scumtell? Have you never seen town act survivalistically? Sure, it's contrary to your playstyle, but that's just a playstyle.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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This is a really crap argument (from both a mathematical and a logical standpoint, the odds of there being something in my post that i found randomly with the degree of patternedness that i displayed is low enough to ignore) but it doesn't matter anyway.In post 414, Parama wrote:
wow, look at that, i'm a mason tooIn post 26, Parama wrote: try: using a RVS wagon to try and bait a claim
soething you blmtantly obvioualy did and kaintepes alsscaught ooton
that breadcrumb is actually complete crap
I don't want to lynch syryana. If there's anyone i'd be willing to lynch other than transcend it's frankly gamma... but that's mostly out of annoyance at him. But also partially because he really is the only reason that this game isn't straightforward right now. Eliminating him gets rid of anything other than straight reads in this game (I doubt there are any PRs other than storm and I).-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I'd like this but the pace of this game is so fast that his not being here for so long has actually stalled it from a solving perspective.In post 487, Stormcloud wrote:Wait for Gamma or a replacement so we can actually get a read on that slot.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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The whole point of it is that you aren't supposed to be able to.Comm wrote:Don't pretend we'd ever figure something like that out from that very very vague "crumb".
To put it simply, a claim at some point on d1 is inevitable. We just want it to be mafia who makes the claim. Not the masons who are now both going to die the next two nights and leave the town with no power. Which is why weComm wrote:Finally, was I wrong for wanting a claim D1? It outed two people, however, it definitely supplied plenty of reads worth of material.talkandreasonbefore we lock onto one player, so that the person we force to claim is more likely to be scum!
Spoiler: Wallpost that's only really relevant if you're storm-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I honestly just cannot really get past this. I have some reason or another to think that pretty much everyone alive is town at this point and i can't meaningfully compare them in a game this small when there's a slot who hasn't posted anything.In post 731, Parama wrote:i also still think it's very likely gamma is scum for what it's worth. but that's probably just because there's literally no way to read that slot and there's to many other people i have varying degrees of townreads on.
I don't think it's lazy to want to lynch gamma right now. It's simply acknowledging that most people alive look varying amounts town and then going "hmmmm".
I don't think parama's a great lynch right now. I like his reasoning on the transcend flip. I like the way he's pressuring syr, though I don't think syr is a great lynch either. I think his points on transcend are decently strong but I'm still not sure how I feel about him overall.
There's no one alive right now other than gamma whose lynch doesn't make me feel bad for one reason or another. Granted that is normal for me as town but etc, like I said, I can't really figure out who I want to lynch without gamma having done anything. In particular if transcend is scum gamma is fairly likely his partner i think, as having an afk scumbuddy would explain transcend's frustration.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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