Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Alchemist21]

We're not No Lynching Days 1 and 2. The reason scum lynches on D1 are uncommon are because of the higher ratio of Town:scum. Even if we're wrong the lynches thin out the suspect pool and give us info to work with.

Plus I joined this game to play mafia, not to not play it.

McMenno's probably trolling anyway and fire is letting him.

VOTE: Comparing Realities

I think rb gives off the serious try-hard posts of a semi-experienced Town player, so they're my first Town read.

P.S. Why are so many people switching over to Death Note avatars these days? Did everyone just binge the series at the same back-to-school time or something?

[Alchemist21]

Here it is:
1: What is your preferred faction?
2: What would you say you bring to the game that others don't?
3: Tell me a bit about your username, signature, and/or avatar.
My answers:
1: I would have to say town because the game feels more relaxed.
2: I bring a sense of humor I would say is nigh unrivaled.
3: My username is an old idea of a Pokemon Emerald remake. My signature is a quote from a webcomic, and I find the quote works really well here.

And about those wagons, I have seen votes meant to bait reactions on EpicMafia plenty of times. It's not only about successful wagons.

These are pretty useless questions (and most RQS questions are). 2 may be ok. More useful questions would be about overall mafia experience and who we've played with before.

1.)No preference really. Like being scum for fun, but I also like Town for the challenge of catching scum and feel like my Town game is stronger than my scum game as evidenced by my win rate for each faction.

2.)Mashed potatoes and gravy. No, but seriously I will actually work with people who I have confidence in. You don't see always see people willing to work together.

3.)Old interest and anime series I like. Been using this name on other sites since 2009.

[Alchemist21]

McMenno's probably trolling anyway and fire is letting him.

This has been fire the whole time.

Mcmenno hasn't posted yet lol.

~Mas Y

And this is why you should go by Mas. I thought you were kidding about the name fight with mcmenno or that it happened before the game.

[Alchemist21]

4.) All the games listed on my wiki page, plus numerous games offsite.

5.) Just the firebringer head of the mas y menos hydra.

Also yes, hydra head can always talk together.

[Alchemist21]

I'm thinking Gamma is Town too. I think he is also the type who is willing to work with people.

[Alchemist21]

Hmm... He's done this before as scum in Space Dandy II, but in the scumchat there he said he really thought it was the most pro-town move. It's hard for me to get a read on fire based on that alone.

[Alchemist21]

Xyzz, could you please answer CR's question about your 37?

UhhhhhmmmmmActually, I kind of like that...Would we all individually vote our second-highest FOS, or vote who is generally the second-most FOSed? Because the first scenario lets scum be more creatively manipulative, which is, well, bad, and the second is tough to live by and easily screwed up by a lone rebel.

[Alchemist21]

I don't think scum, unless very experienced and already known for disliking large posts, would get as confrontational about a single wall-post as rb has. I think scum would be more inclined to say "Fine, I'll look back over it," and not call this much attention to themselves.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

BTD strikes me as the flying under the radar type. I'd like to see more thoughts from him, especially harder stances than "This is mostly NAI."

[Alchemist21]

Regardless of the size of the game, scum wouldn't want to do anything that calls certain attention to themselves because they don't want people taking a harder look at their slot. That may be harder to do in a micro, but the natural desire would still be there, and any scum that thinks they could get away with it would try it.

[Alchemist21]

I think I can confidently say Mas y menos is Town now.

I was leaning that way after 121 because I don't think Firebringer is the type of person to use our history of sharing an alignment to his advantage, at least not with the same friendly attitude he had. Questioning me on my BTD read just now makes me confident that Fire is Town who cares about this game.

P-edit: Well it's not really about whether they could or couldn't fly under the radar, I just think the attempt to do it is there, and that's what's scummy.

[Alchemist21]

I don't think scum, unless very experienced and already known for disliking large posts, would get as confrontational about a single wall-post as rb has. I think scum would be more inclined to say "Fine, I'll look back over it," and not call this much attention to themselves.

VOTE: BTD6_maker

BTD strikes me as the flying under the radar type. I'd like to see more thoughts from him, especially harder stances than "This is mostly NAI."

I was referring to one action. My reads are developing and are still weak in early Day 1. Voting because you think I am scum is good. Voting because you want me to give more reads is not.

And supposing my vote is for both reasons, what do you make of that?

[Alchemist21]

I'm scumreading you because I think that you are trying to post while giving as little valuable content as possible. Nothing you've said is really useful, and I think you just don't want to form hard opinions because you don't want to come under scrutiny for them. I couldn't even tell if what you said about xyzzy was a scumread or just a dislike of the vote.

[Alchemist21]

I'm scumreading you because I think that you are trying to post while giving as little valuable content as possible. Nothing you've said is really useful, and I think you just don't want to form hard opinions because you don't want to come under scrutiny for them. I couldn't even tell if what you said about xyzzy was a scumread or just a dislike of the vote.

I don't want to form hard opinions because I don't have very strong opinions in early Day 1. As the game progresses opinions naturally get stronger. Also, explain why my analysing of votes is not valuable.

Opinions are still opinions, and they have info the Town can work with. Everyone's opinions are going to be weaker D1, but there should be some you can state outright. VCA can be valuable in the later stages of the game, but D1 it's not useful, and if you're not generating D1 content because you're doing something like that, then even if the claim is true then you may as well be doing nothing.

Null-weak Town: RB, Comparing Realities
Null: Blackstar, Gamma Emerald
Nullscum: Keyenpeydee, Xyzzy
Weak scum: Mas y Menos,Alchemist21

Does this help?

This is the most useful post you've made. At least now I have an idea of your reads and can probably see where you're coming from on some of them.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Xyzzy

I like this better than Mas. Xyzzy doesn't do much other than throw shade and despite thinking I'm a strong lynch candidate, keeps their vote aligned with mine. Key, Alchemist: thoughts?

Sorry I forgot to respond to this earlier. I think at this point of the game Town xyzzy is more concerned with applying pressure and getting info to work with rather than getting the lynch through ASAP, and stating you're a strong lynch candidate is saying that they find your play scummy, so I don't think it's that unusual that they kept their vote where it is.

That said, Xyzzy is still null to me because I don't think they've done anything that's unfakeable as scum, but they're posting in a way that I think will make their intentions clear by the end of the Day, so I'm content to let them continue as they are for now.

[Alchemist21]

I like Black Star's case on Key and it makes sense. I could compromise on xyzzy if I had to, but I'd still prefer the BTD lynch to xyzzy.

Fire's reaction to L-1 here should leave no doubt that they're Town. He'd be trolling at this point rather than trying to get out serious thoughts on the game.

VOTE: keyenpeydee

@Mas y menos, why do you think BTD is solid Town? What am I missing here?

[Alchemist21]

I like Black Star's case on Key and it makes sense. I could compromise on xyzzy if I had to, but I'd still prefer the BTD lynch to xyzzy.

Fire's reaction to L-1 here should leave no doubt that they're Town. He'd be trolling at this point rather than trying to get out serious thoughts on the game.

VOTE: keyenpeydee

@Mas y menos, why do you think BTD is solid Town? What am I missing here?

Why this post is scummy?

1.) Sheeped BlackStar
2.) Prefers BTD lynch but votes for me.

If you prefer BTD lynch, Then push for it. Don't sheep BlackStar.

Read it again. I said I prefer the BTD lynch to xyzzy. I'm just as comfortable lynching you as I am BTD. The reason I switched is because others also agree about you being scummy. I want the Town to work together, not tear itself apart.

[Alchemist21]

So what if, If I'm town?

If you're Town then I'm sorry. If I'm wrong about you then I hope I'll see my error soon enough and try to work with you, but I'm not going to assume you're Town just because "what if" and I'm not going to tell you how to act Townier.

[Alchemist21]

UNVOTE:
Wow, I spend one day having a life and things go CRAZY. I don't know what the feel right now.

This is still pretty mild compared to what can happen in larger games.

[Alchemist21]

L-2. Black Star, mas y menos, and me are the ones voting him right now.

[Alchemist21]

Bussing isn't favorable for micros in general, and I think for this setup particularly. If Key's scum, BlackStar should be treated as confTown, and I think it points towards xyzzy being more likely Town as well. The association with xyzzy isn't as solid given that Key seems to be the least familiar with site meta and experience, but given he was one of the many people Key hopped his vote onto, I think it's a good indicator.

The wagon composition itself looks good on Key imo. Mas y menos are solid Town, I'm still pretty sure Gamma is Town, and Black Star is Town especially if Key is scum. (I'll admit, my read on Black Star would weaken if key is Town, but the case was solid and other signs point to key being scum here).

[Alchemist21]

Town Reads:
rb
gamma emerald
mas y menos (strong)
Black Star

scum reads:
btd6_maker
keyenpeydee

The other two are still null (xyzzy shifts to Town in case of Key scumflip).

[Alchemist21]

I like Black Star's case on Key and it makes sense. I could compromise on xyzzy if I had to, but I'd still prefer the BTD lynch to xyzzy.

Fire's reaction to L-1 here should leave no doubt that they're Town. He'd be trolling at this point rather than trying to get out serious thoughts on the game.

VOTE: keyenpeydee

@Mas y menos, why do you think BTD is solid Town? What am I missing here?

[Alchemist21]

Yeah. You should keep your vote on the wagon until you've decided where else you're going to put it. If you think Key is scum but then you take your vote off him like that, it just takes pressure off of him and you're not putting pressure anywhere else.

[Alchemist21]

What do you have to respond to my accusations against you? Specifically, I've argued that you knew your plan was a bad idea, but you pushed it almost relentlessly, then suddenly dropped it when it became clear it had almost no support.

I don't agree my plan is a bad idea.
Alchemist can note that I had a similar plan in a different game and i 100% believed in it.

I did drop it because no one was supporting it and it was worthless to keep pushing.

~Mas Y

Thank you. Alchemist, is this true?

Hmm... He's done this before as scum in Space Dandy II, but in the scumchat there he said he really thought it was the most pro-town move. It's hard for me to get a read on fire based on that alone.

[Alchemist21]

I'm fine with ending the day since the game seems to be stagnating here, but if anyone has stuff they want to talk about I'm fine with waiting a bit.

This is where my reads are at right now:

Town Reads:
rb (weak)
gamma emerald
mas y menos (strong)
Black Star (strong if Key is scum, weak or null if Key is Town)
Comparing Realities (strong)

null reads:
Xyzzy (Town if Key is scum)

scum reads:
btd6_maker (weak now, goes back to strong if Key flips scum)
keyenpeydee

I think CR's unvote because he doesn't want the Day to end early is a good Town sign. I am completely confident on my mas y menos Townread, and any scum on an L-1 wagon on Town isn't going to jump off to extend the Day.

On the flip side, Gamma becomes strong Town for the same reason if Key is Town. The unvote and "I want to apply pressure elsewhere" statement looked weird, but his ISO shows a history of unvoting without immediately placing it somewhere else, so at the very least it's not scum jumping off the bus wagon.

My BTD read was weakened by Fire's point about their meta, but didn't eliminate it completely, and if Key flips scum most everyone else is cleared.

rb's posts I think are more likely to come from the semi-aggressive kind of Town player, but it's not something that's unfakeable as scum and the voting history wouldn't clear him regardless of what key flips. This read would drop to Null in two scenarios:
1.)Key flips Town
2.) Key flips scum, but BTD flips Town.

@Black Star, I just noticed you listed xyzzy as another scumread. Why did you scumread them, and do you still scumread them now?

[Alchemist21]

Did he just self-hammer or is that L-1?

[Alchemist21]

I'm not scumreading you. My Townread of you would just be weakened or eliminated in case of a Key Townflip. Again, why were/are you scumreading xyzzy?

[Alchemist21]

I see. That's understandable. If Key flips scum, how would that affect your xyzzy read?

[Alchemist21]

I see. I disagree, but thank you for answering. Do you think it would make xyzzy more likely scum because of how Key was acting toward xyzzy, or because of how xyzzy was acting toward the key wagon, or both?

[Alchemist21]

What if someone's reads change after they've posted them? And remind me why this works with the second scummiest over the first?

[Alchemist21]

I don't really like xyzzy's plan. If we lynch scum today we get an extra day to find the partner, and if we lynch wrong today, tomorrow will be lylo and people will mostly be biased towards that common scumread, which if wrong will cost us the game.

It's possible Xyzzy is scum, but I'm more uneasy about Black Star right now. His responses to my questions at the end of the day yesterday felt dodgy when he was giving them, and the more I think about it the more I feel uneasy about him. He was also quick to assume I was scumreading him when I still wasn't, so I think he was nervous about being suspected.

VOTE: Black Star

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Comparing Realities

Right now I like this more than XYZ though.

~Mas Y

CR unvoted you when you were at L-1. I don't think scum would have ever done that.

[Alchemist21]

Whats your thoughts on Gamma and CR?

I really thought black star was town yesterday. not feeling same there buddy

~Mas Y

Gamma was the other one who unvoted at L-1, on a slot we now know is Town.

Makes them both strong Townreads to me.

[Alchemist21]

@Alchemist

There was nothing dodgy about it. In fact, you even said that my reasoning was understandable. Its kind of interesting that you voted me because I just came to the conclusion that the most likely scum team is you and Gamma.

VOTE: Gamma

Yes, but then 390 made my skin crawl when it happened, and then the two posts after that were lackluster or void of explanation, and all that together is what seems so dodgy.

[Alchemist21]

Gamma/mas y Menos
Alchemist21/xyzzy
Comparing realities/BTD6_maker

This format still confuses me.

Is it:
scum
null
Town

or is it:
(scum/town)
(scum/town)
(scum/town)

or is it some other way?

[Alchemist21]

I'm talking about Black Star's reads specifically.

From what I can tell in his other posts, his 3 scumreads should be me, gamma, and xyzzy. The way he's got it seems like he's either got Mas y menos as a scumread above both myself and xyzzy, or he's Townreading xyzzy and scumreading CR now. Neither really make sense based on his past posts.

[Alchemist21]

So how did CR get in the scumreads and Xyzzy in the Town reads?

[Alchemist21]

So how did CR get in the scumreads and Xyzzy in the Town reads?

Xyzzy being scum was dependent on key being scum. Plus I reread his iso and it wasn't really that bad. CR has basically been floating around making large posts that basically say nothing. I don't scum read him, but X asked us to divide everyone into the 2 groups so i put him with scum. He's null.

"Floating around" is exactly what you said about Xyzzy. And don't try to tell me your xyzzy scumread was entirely dependent on Key's flip when you weren't even sure of how key's scumflip would have affected your scumread.

I am waiting for Mas y Menos' and Alchemist's list. Then we can analyse the information to determine the ideal lynch candidate. (This is as Xyzzy has both of them in the scum list, so I am waiting to see whether they also have similar scmreads to each other/other players.)

Town: CR, Gamma, Mas y menos
scum: Black Star, xyzzy, BTD

I'm confident enough in most of my reads that changing orders doesn't hide much if anything. I'm confident in all my Town reads and my Black Star scumread. I'm leaning more towards xyzzy as the second scum.

[Alchemist21]

To the people thinking scum would jump off an L-1 wagon they know is Town,

Scum would not do that. If you're scum, and the Town wagon you're on is at L-1, you are getting no flak for it, and there's a good chance they're going to be lynched, you stay on the lynch and let it happen. This is why gamma is Town.

I've played a lot of games with firebringer, in fact he's probably the player I've played with most out of anyone else on the site. He's definitely more serious and cares more about the game when he's Town than when he's scum. His reaction to his L-1 status yesterday proved to me that he's Town.

And because of my confidence in firebringer being Town, I am also that confident in CR being Town for the same reason that Gamma is Town - they unvoted a Town wagon at L-1.

Those are my 3 Townreads and why I am extremely confident in all of them.

Black Star is my most confident scumread because of his dodgy responses to my questions at the end of they day yesterday, and how he's someone shifted his read

from xyzzy to CR for the same reason he was scumreading xyzzy while now Townreading xyzzy.

He also blatantly lied about how much his xyzzy read depended on Key's flip (he even quoted the lie, and I'll re-quote it if you people need me to).

The shift from xyzzy to CR is what makes me lean on xyzzy being the scumpartner to Black Star, but I'm not certain of that. I am certain that the partner is either xyzzy or BTD, just on the PoE of the 3 Townreads.

[Alchemist21]

To the people thinking scum would jump off an L-1 wagon they know is Town,

Scum would not do that. If you're scum, and the Town wagon you're on is at L-1, you are getting no flak for it, and there's a good chance they're going to be lynched, you stay on the lynch and let it happen. This is why gamma is Town.

I've played a lot of games with firebringer, in fact he's probably the player I've played with most out of anyone else on the site. He's definitely more serious and cares more about the game when he's Town than when he's scum. His reaction to his L-1 status yesterday proved to me that he's Town.

And because of my confidence in firebringer being Town, I am also that confident in CR being Town for the same reason that Gamma is Town - they unvoted a Town wagon at L-1.

Those are my 3 Townreads and why I am extremely confident in all of them.

Black Star is my most confident scumread because of his dodgy responses to my questions at the end of they day yesterday, and how he's someone shifted his read

from xyzzy to CR for the same reason he was scumreading xyzzy while now Townreading xyzzy.

He also blatantly lied about how much his xyzzy read depended on Key's flip (he even quoted the lie, and I'll re-quote it if you people need me to).

The shift from xyzzy to CR is what makes me lean on xyzzy being the scumpartner to Black Star, but I'm not certain of that. I am certain that the partner is either xyzzy or BTD, just on the PoE of the 3 Townreads.

1) there was nothing dodgy about my responses
2) I'm not scum reading comparing realities. I've already said that so I don't know why you're ignoring it. I guess it's because it doesn't fit in with your tunnel on me.
3) I didn't lie about anything lol. I said I wasn't sure how it would affect my read and then in the post directly after it I said that if key was scum then xyzzy was probably scum. Key was town and most of my reason for scumreading xyzzy was that they were defending each other, so it wouldn't make sense to still scum read him after that flip.

Come at me with another BS post, Bruh.

Your reason for scumreading Xyzzy was that he was

floating around doing nothing

. When I asked how key's flip would affect your xyzzy read, your initial response was "not sure" which tells me the reads were independent of each other up until that point, and even that you simply said Key's scumflip would make xyzzy more likely scum,

not that it would erase your xyzzy scumread.

When asked to sort all the players, you put CR in the scum pile while you put Xyzzy in the Town pile. Your reasoning on CR was

"floating around doing nothing"

You did lie and it does make sense to still be scumreading xyzzy after key's flip because Key's flip would not have changed the fact that you think xyzzy has been floating around doing nothing.

P.S. Those 1- and 2-word responses you kept giving were dodgy as fuck for someone who ripped on Gamma about not explaining themselves and giving Town enough info to work with.

[Alchemist21]

Then what have you been reading? I'm the one telling you why Black Star is scum and why you, CR, and Mas are all Town.

[Alchemist21]

^ Posted too early on mistake, ignore.

Alright, there are three possibilities that just happened here, given the following constraints:

A) Black claims to have not known this was purely vanilla
B) Gamma was the one who responded to Black, giving Black's claims credit
C) Gamma does not believe that this is a thing that "scum would not do"

Which raises the following possibilities:

1) Black is scum who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla. Unlikely; PRs would undoubtedly be a topic of conversation during the night. This would mean that both Black and his partner did not read the first post, which is terribly unlikely.

10%

2) Black is scum who knew this was purely vanilla, but fabricated this as a townslip. His partner would necessarily be Gamma, and they orchestrated this. (Partner doesn't have to be Gamma, but it's the most likely explanation. It feels awfully coordinated.) The initial interaction does feel a bit too peppy, almost cheeky; the same person who sarcastically posted a gif of a guy bleating "ANOTHER ONE" is also the guy now giving off an innocent air of "Hmm, Really? Didn't know that. Huh." But then Gamma tried to shoot down xyzzy's assertion that this was a townslip, and I also just remember that they hate eachother. So this is unliekly, also.
...Then again, today

is

the day for bussing, and neither are off-the-rails amped for the death of the other...

20%

3) Black is town who genuinely did not know this was purely vanilla.

70%

For scenario 2, what would be the probability that Black Star is scum, gamma is Town scumreading him for that, and Xyzzy is the scumbuddy trying to cover for Black Star?

[Alchemist21]

The timer on the stimuli passed, and it never arrived.

I'm just going to state the obvious here, if you don't mind:

Why did rb die, and why is nobody interested in the fact that it was rb who died?

rb was not universally a townread. Not even close. He wasn't OVERTLY the best or the brightest person we have, the one closest to catching scum. So why did they kill him?
Because rb probably had the most accurate reads, simple. If nobody is talking about this, then it means scum isn't talking about this, which means scum isn't trying to do WIFOM here. They killed rb because it was the best person to kill, full stop. Therefore, rb's reads can be presumed to be relatively accurate at the time of his death.

I was thinking about this earlier today and thought this at first too, so I looked back at RB's posts, but he was uncertain of a lot of his reads. He's highly unlikely these uncertain reads are why he died. While he wasn't a universal Townread, nobody was strongly suspecting him either. Also, despite being dead he's still got the 4th highest post count, which shows just how active he was. So, I think rb was killed because:

1.)He was active.
2.)He wasn't likely to be lynched anytime soon.

[Alchemist21]

I hate the mas wagon. Doesn't give me any comfort that 2 of the 3 in my scumpile are voting him (and were also voting him yesterday).

VOTE: XyzzyVOTE:

[Alchemist21]

What happened to the vote tags?

VOTE: Xyzzy

[Alchemist21]

Oh, right. Forgot the /.

[Alchemist21]

• 7 Vanilla Townies
  
• 2 Mafia Goons (with a compulsive factional nightkill)
  
• If scum is lynched on Day 3, town automatically win. Otherwise, factions win or lose as normal.

The factional nightkill is compulsive to stop scum no-killing on N2 to push town onto evens.

EV is calculated as follows:

• There's a 2/9*1/7 = 2/63 chance of lynching scum D1 and D2, town win.
  
• There's a 7/9*5/7 = 35/63 chance of lynching town D1 and D2. You have a 40% chance of triggering the instant win, and a 60% chance of mislynching and losing.
  
• The remaining 26/63, there's a 4:1 situation going into D3, which has a (1/5 + 4/5 * 1/3) = 7/15 chance of a town win.

Total EV is (30 + 210 + 182) / (63 × 15) = 422 / 945, or about 44.66%.

Strategy here is fairly interesting, given that town may want to lynch a less likely scum candidate D2 (or even D1) in order to save a likely scumflip for their "desperation day" on D3, at the cost of scum getting a nightkill which they can use to influence how easily that player gets lynched (or spout WIFOM everywhere). It also makes bussing more viable early and less viable late than is usual in a 9p; I'm not sure whether people consider that a good thing or not.

Thanks to xyzzy, whose setups got me thinking along these lines.

Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.

[Alchemist21]

It's known that Mas has seriously thought No Lynching was a pro-Town move and suggested it despite being scum in a past game.

It's also likely that Xyzzy had some math for the game already worked out and could quickly work out the extra bit to account for a D1 No Lynch if he hadn't already.

It's an argument that could have happened anyway, regardless of either one's alignments. I want to say it makes it less likely they're scum together because pretty much any scum player that hears their partner say they want to suggest a D1 No Lynch just for Towncred is going be pretty opposed to it (even with numbers to back it up a D1 No Lynch isn't a well-received idea on this site), but I can't really make that argument because Mas just does things without asking others about it first.

All this could only be telling of alignment if they tried to use such arguments in their defense if the other flipped scum, and even then it's still more null than not because Town could say it too.

[Alchemist21]

Based on the cited thread and the credit to xyzzy in the OP of that thread seen here, it's probably more likely than not that xyzzy had already started working out some numbers for the game already, maybe even before the game even started, and only brought it up because No Lynching was discussed (which was also quick to come up in the cited thread). So just bringing up the math for it is probably null, and I certainly wouldn't make associatives based on it.

This is completely irrelevant to the point I was getting at.

Then what was your point?

[Alchemist21]

I feel like mas would've been hammered already if he was town

It's possible both scum are already on the wagon and nobody off the wagon wants to hammer.

[Alchemist21]

If Xyzzy is scum then his partner is either Black Star or BTD. Otherwise the scumteam IS Black Star and BTD.

[Alchemist21]

what if the real scum is the friends we made along the way?

That's not a very nice thing to say about your friends.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Black Star

CR had mild suspicion on BTD, but he was also suspecting Black Star towards the EoD. Either one could have killed him.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: Black Star

CR had mild suspicion on BTD, but he was also suspecting Black Star towards the EoD. Either one could have killed him.

If it was black star why not kill you?

I think I'm more widely scumread than CR was. Also I haven't had much success pushing a lynch on him, so if Black Star is scum he probably figures he can shut me down and get me lynched. I think killing me is also would obviously point to him as scum, and that's something he might have wanted to avoid.

P-edit: I pushed him but nobody else was seeing things my way. I'll have to check but I don't remember anyone else voting for him.

[Alchemist21]

Yeah, nobody other than me was ever voting him in the mod's votecounts on D2.

[Alchemist21]

Like I said yesterday, if it's not Black it's BTD. I almost wagoned BTD with you but I don't want anyone at L-1 before they've both had a chance to post.

[Alchemist21]

Aren't we all?

[Alchemist21]

I looked back at the vote counts. One day 1, xyzzy wasn't on key's mislynch wagon. He was voting for mas on both days. I doubt that both him and his partner were off key's wagon on day 1. The people who were on it were me, gamma, alchemist mas and key. Key flipped town, I'm town and xyzzy was pushing mas so hard that mas probably isn't his partner. So that just leaves Alchemist and gamma as X's possible partners. Alchemists posts about me have been pretty terrible, but I believe that he really believes what he's saying so I guess he's town. So that just leaves Gamma. Gamma was on the mas wagon yesterday too, so I'm pretty sure he's the last scum.

VOTE: gamma

What did you guys think of this?

It's a reasonable perspective if you're Town, but I still disagree that Gamma is scum.

Alchemist is a likely other scum, and so is Blackstar at the moment as possible people who would kill RB and CR.

For now:

VOTE: Alchemist21

Pushing me is a move I think scum BTD is less likely to have made here given the current gamestate. Being at L-1 and listing someone who already has a vote as their other scumread I think BTD would have voted Black Star here.

I've been thinking that if we lynch wrong today, then the 3-p lylo this game will see is the final scum player + Mas and Gamma. I'm strongly Townreading the two of them and they're both Townreading me so a lylo with me + either of them and the final scum player would mean a loss for scum which is why I think I'm the one who would die tonight. Though it's mitigated right now, Mas and Gamma have been suspecting each other, and I would expect the final scum to use that at 3-p lylo. If Black Star is scum, he's opening the path to voting Gamma tomorrow if Gamma's not lynched today (a lynch that I doubt will happen) and he can remain comfortably off the BTD wagon if that's the one that goes through. If BTD is scum then he could just be staying off the gamma/mas division until tomorrow since it would be reasonable for his reads to change so drastically at Lylo, but he would have to survive to tomorrow, and as I said in the previous paragraph I imagine scum BTD acting in a more self-preserving fashion.

All that said, I think this game may depend on whether Mas and Gamma can trust each other. Things seem to be going that way and I hope they continue in that direction.

[Alchemist21]

That may be true. My thinking is that you or mas voting for the other is scum's only hope of winning. I would expect it more from Black Star to kill Mas tonight rather than BTD (mainly because I think Black Star would make that kind of "fuck you, you can't predict what scum will do" move).

[Alchemist21]

Lynch or no lynch, it's October now. Time to get spoopy.

[Alchemist21]

lol Caledfwitch made a bunch of Halloween avatars last year and this is the one she made for me.

[Alchemist21]

Tied down with schoolwork right now.

I'm ok with hammering BTD if nobody wants to switch to Black Star.

[Alchemist21]

Did xyzzy not realize he was already hammered when he posted his gif though?