Micro 52: Speedygorge Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[Yates]

Welcome him, damnit.

Yeah! What he said.

Important question: can anyone tell me what ODN stands for?

[Yates]

So - I started donig this for my place in post:

##########
Siveure - this guy is the first person pinging my scumdar. The refusal to let go of a BS excuse he made regarding calling a 3 years MS vet a noob is - well - perplexing. In a very bad way. [posts 70 and 73]

Eidolon - I will NOT be voting for Eidolon for anything short of a cop investigation just so I can keep that avatar around. Also, post 323.
Buckwild - In related news, I will vote this guy for sneezing just so I don't have to look at Dawson's Creek. >:|
##########

But in the process of bouncing back and forth to corroberate my early reads something is REALLY standing out.

So right now I think malpa's alignment will reveal siv's likely alignment and it's why I want malpa dead much more so then siv.

That was page 5. Correct me if I'm wrong but Malpa flipped scum, yes? And, interestingly, Mehdi was NKed? Gee. Who would have a motive to kill Mehdi?

Also:

My scum reads if Malp is mafia: Siv

[Damnit! I want to lynch Dawson but he is making too much sense!]

Well, except for this part:

Yea, but that could be a pre-emptive suggestion because you know what he will flip chosen and want to look as townly as possible when it happens.

How would Mehdi know who is going to flip "Chosen" if she is scum? Scum know their teammates but not everyone else's roles. That doesn't make any sense.

Moving on... What's this AtE stuff?

P:Edit: Gunny, one vote, about four people are saying I'm scummy, one is completely absent, and Idk what the last one says. Yeah, I'm getting lynched. Also, thanks for checking the votes for me

VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

I'm going to

Vote: Siveure

at least until I'm caught up but I don't see this vote moving.

PE: Actually - I'm glad to see Gunny was already voting Siv. This dude is obv-scum. /Day

[Yates]

I owe the Yates slot-Om of the Nom deteriorating discussion another readthrough

Which reminds me...

Strong Town
Buck
Mala
Drmy

One of these people are likely to be scum.

Just popping in to comment about this weird weird statement from Om.
Mehdi flipped Town, not scum.
Since when were we able to use a flipped-Town's "Strong Town" list to decide the scum-pool?
I mean, I'd understand if Malpascp said this, but this was Mehdi??

From my perspective, this has been an easy slot to slide in to. I absolutely agree with this. Omnom, were you being cheeky or do you HONESTLY believe Mehdi was killed for her Town reads versus - oh - EVERYTHING ELSE that made her a threat to scum? Your post 347 was pretty derp.

Also, I can summarize your case on Buck in 357 with two words: confirmation bias. I mean seriously, I could build a shockingly similar case against you if I just "assume" Siv is scum.

Moreover, in response to post 373 where you assert Siv and Mala are our Chosen townies, I feel so strongly about Siv-scum I'm willing to give you the Mehdi guarantee; "if

malpa

Siv

flips chosen lynch me immediately for it (yeah I'd be willing to bet my life he's townie at worst)."

[Yates]

Actually I'd rather you get lynched before Siv, if that's fine with you.

Did you ever stop and think *my slot* could be the chosen slot? In which case, you pushing for my slot to get lynched based on a derp case would make YOU the final scum. OOOOOHHHH!! BUUUUUURRRNN!!

I think Siv is scum. Omnom is towards the top of my scum reads as well though I admit there's some OMGUS influencing this read.

[Yates]

I'd like to see a case for that scum read on me.

I did say this:

I admit there's some OMGUS influencing this read.

But basically everything you posted in those two pages that led up to Gunny replacing out. None of that looked very Town.

I'm still getting caught up on the second half of Day 1 so I reserve the right to change my opinion but at best you are null.

[Yates]

Awe man... You know what I wish I said in response to Om's 347 post?

Actually in case I'm night killed here's a quick list of reads (explained sufficiently in past posts with a bit of changes):

Null

Siv
penguin_alien
james/Om

In order of towniness (so siv is the most likely to be town of the nulls while james at the moment is the one I trust least).

One of these people are likely to be scum.

That would have been boss. I feel like scum want to get rid of people suspicious of them - not people that are NOT suspicious of them. This is ESPECIALLY true in a game like this.

So yeah, I'm cool with my Siv vote.

[Yates]

Also, consider that part of my case on you, Om. ^^ Mehdi calling you [and Siv] out as scum and getting NKed is MUCH more likely than one of her Town reads being scum and wanting her dead.

[Yates]

Active slot. Great success!

[Yates]

Also, do we believe yates's townslip? I sortof do.

What Town slip?

[Yates]

Apart from that I really don't have a clue how to defend myself.

Start by telling me where my read on you is off. It's that simple. I'm a pragmatist. I'll listen to reason. It will just have to be really convincing.

[Yates]

Also, what's your case on Buck. I want to lynch his face - but he doesn't look scum to me.

[Yates]

Ok. But I'm voting for Siv. So I guess you just made my case for me and... thanks?

[Yates]

420 is good posting.

[Yates]

Are you intentionally playing dumb?
Case and reasons please.

[Yates]

It's not like I'm blindly guessing or anything.

That's what he's saying. He's saying you don't need to guess because you are scum.

[Yates]

Yeah. Except I have made an actual case. And Siv HIMSELF admits that all of my points are indefensible.

Spoiler:

Your read on me is off because it gets the conclusion wrong. I can follow the logic of that read and I'm not 100% sure where exactly it goes wrong, but I know it's wrong at SOME point because I'm town and it's conclusion is that I'm scum.

[Yates]

Sure it is. It's also possible for Town to defend Scum. And sometimes, for Scum to defend Town. I suspect you are one of these two, Om.

[Yates]

How many scum do we have left?? And if his lynch is being scum backed, why isn't it gaining traction? Another thing is that you can't say that his wagon is being "driven by scum" without knowing his alignment is Town. How would you know that? Unless you are scum, of course, and you are trying to steer us towards a Chosen Town instead.

Your posting of late has been super suspicious and I'm considering moving my vote to you.

[Yates]

I don't really have a read on anyone.

Not even Om? He's trying pretty hard to keep you safe and call you "Chosen." What do you make of this. ARE you Chosen? Is Om scum that knows this?

[Yates]

What do you make of this. ARE you Chosen?

Sorry, I see why you would be confused. What I am *actually* asking you is what you thought of his case for you being Chosen.

[Yates]

That was... humbling. Given the Siv flip, I am much more inclined to buy Om-Town.

Now I feel like I need to reread 19 pages of game.

[Yates]

I've been town the whole time goddamnit.

Well you needed to do a better job of making that obvious because you could have been lynched yesterday.

[Yates]

Buck, Yates, the lynch today is going to be one of penguin/Hyperion. Are you guys up to the task of helping me lynch them?

Actually, I agree. It's mostly POE given the flips but there's roughly a 100% chance one of those two are scum. At this point, I would prefer a Hyperion lynch because the *only* reason I have Penguin in this pile is POE. Penguin's recent posts are logical, articulate, and appear to be coming strongly from a Town mindset. In fact, I have been nodding in agreement with everything Penguin has said this morning. Hyperion, meanwhile, seems to be avoiding the thread.

It's the weekend so I'm not in a huge rush to hang Hyperion without receiving more content. I'm willing to give Hyperion until Monday night or Tuesday morning to post some content and convince us why someone else is a better scum target.

[Yates]

WTF, dude?

1. How did you manage that?
2. Good luck.
3. Replace out?

[Yates]

Can you build a case outside of meta? Because right now I have no reason to suspect Buck.

[Yates]

Honestly assess yourself, Buck; is there ANY OMGUS to that Hyperion read?

[Yates]

This alone gives me reason to believe that both penguin and I are Chosen.

Because you have been so accurate with your chosen reads so far?

Seriously, this actually makes sense and is something I noticed on my reread.

[Yates]

So my reads are shaking out like this:

Penguin - Town - Probably Chosen- Will not lynch
Om Nom - Town - *POSSIBLY* Chosen - Will not lynch

I do have a theory that the Chosen are me and Penguin, though, and that our last scum is a bit newbish [or intentionally trying to look newbish]. But we can get into that in a different post.

So that leaves the scum in one of Buck and Hyperion.

Buck - I have liked his reads since I replaced in and they align with mine. Some of his posts could be construed as buddying, though:
Exhibit A.

Spoiler:

Scum reads:
DRMY: He sheeps mala w/o a good reason. #58, maybe I am missing something here, but he is saying people need to die for random comments w/o explanation.

Malp: At first I wasn't sure why everyone was so suspicious of him, but after reading his posts, it is weird he makes an random vote when things are already picking up. He also hasn't contributed actual content much yet. (speak for yourself, I know :p) He is too experienced to not know better. I'd like to see

You contradict yourself in the course of having me as your scum read and having Malpa as your scumread. Think about it.

oi, you are right, it appears I do... sort of. the w/o explanation on your part still stands so it still makes sense to me.

Exhibit B.

Spoiler:

His arguments against Mala were on the same page as mine. And he started the arguments first so I can't say he was sheeping me (looked like the other way around).

Exhibit C.

Spoiler:

If I had to put an order for most to least scummy:
1. Siv
2. Om
3. Eid
4. Penguin
5. DRMY

I know. That's kind of weak but I'm trying to find some associative tells here. The one thing I can point to that could indicate Buck-scum is this:

My scum reads if Malp is town: Medhi, mala and Siv.

Given flips, that post looks REALLY bad. Obviously, being wrong doesn't make you scum and I acknowledge that.

Hyperion - My best guess for scum via POE and posting. Here's the deal:
* In 20 posts, Hyperion has voted once [for Buck] only to unvote 24 hours later.
* In 20 posts, Hyperion has FOSed Siv but never voted Siv - knowing it would be a mislynch.
* In 20 posts, Hyperion has prod dodged TWELVE times. TWELVE out of 20 is 60%. [404, 421, 424, 437, 439, 445, 453, 456, 492, 501, 507, 515]
* Post 516 is the classic "see what sticks" post wherein Hyperion-scum is testing the waters to see about getting interest for Me, Om, or Buck without committing to any of us.
* This is all good enough for a vote without even getting into Eidolon

[Yates]

Yates, I could not see anything under your exhibits. Would you be able to repost them?

Click on the spoiler tags. Or are you checking on a phone and the phone isn't handling these tags?

Exhibit A - is post 127
Exhibit B - is post 511
Exhibit C - is post 336

[Yates]

@Hyperion

- it looks like you are going to get lynched. And you seem not to care.

[Yates]

I have this feeling that Om is trying hard not get lynched and just have anyone else lynched.

This is a null tell in a vanilla game.

Notice how he went from this: [insert quote] To having a scumread on me based on something a scumread of his had said.

To quote - well - YOU:

You realise that's it's completely possible that reads may change

Is there a reason you two are arguing with each other instead of discussing the Hyperion lynch? She flips scum and it's game over. So unless you think Hyperion is a mislynch I think you can knock off the political wrangling and get back to work.

[Yates]

Yates, what do you think of Eidolon?

If it's all the same to you, I'd like to keep that in my back pocket until Hyperion has had a chance to respond [if needed]. I don't want to introduce additional information that could inform a defense.

[Yates]

I don't see why you're so paranoid considering I was terribly wrong about Mala and Siv

Really? You think that knowing everyone's flip [you knew they would flip Town] before they flip proves you are TOWN?

Is Hyperion going to flip Town, Om? You are willing to hammer so... Hyperion is scum riiiiight?

I agree with Penguin - we should give Hyperion ~24 hours to respond. I don't know what "intent to hammer" means in this game since Hyperion isn't going to claim Cop out of nowhere and drop a bunch of results but it makes sense to get some last reads in case we are wrong.

[Yates]

Wow - I woke up to check the thread or just hammer before going V/LA for the holidays but this is some good conversation.

I don't know what to make of the fact that Hyperion hasn't been hammered by Om Nom yet. I feel like if he was scum, that hammer would have been dropped yesterday. The only motivation for scum-Om to not hammer Hyperion is if Hyperion is Town and not Chosen. I guess it's possible scum-Om would be trying to introduce some wifom to get us to second guess our target.

Of course, the other long shot possibility is that scum-Penguin or scum-Buck is already voting for Hyperion and hoping to pin the hammer on Town-Yates or Town-Om. Of course, that's based on confirmation bias and Hyperion flipping Chosen.

Ugh. If nothing changes, I'll hammer in 4 hours. I just don't see a reason to vote anyone besides Om at this point.

[Yates]

I didn't. Obviously. lol

I am V/LA until likely Monday. Gobble Gobble!

[Yates]

So I'm either alive because I'm the other Chosen Townie and Om is scum OR because I have a Town read on Buck and Buck is scum.

[Yates]

I'm okay with having Om place the first vote since I do think he is more likely scum than Buck.

"The last Chosen townie could have been killed last night regardless of Chosen status, does this affect the first half of your sentence at all?" As to this? I guess all it does is introduce even more wifom. I agree with Buck. I logged in every day expecting to see my invite to the dead QT. Interestingly, that's the only reason I'm questioning my Town read on Buck now. Then again, Om is smart enough to know how this game works and that keeping me alive would make me question it. Then again, PA also had a Town read on Buck and was leaning scum on Om so either of us dying leads to this same scenario.

[Yates]

100F? WTF are you??

That's a good point, though. I came into this morning thinking I was spared because I was Chosen. I didn't realize scum could have killed Chosen last night with one gone. This gives me even more WIFOM to think about.

Also, you showed suspicion on me the day I replaced in, Om.

[Yates]

Actually, to that point, I think Buck and Penguin are the only ones that never cast suspicion on me or my slot.

[Yates]

Penguin alien would have made sense for a kill from any of us. Because of the town read for Yates, and the scumreads for both me and Buck.
The only reason I really would have needed to kill penguin was for his towniness and his scumread on me.
Buckwild killing penguin leaves Yates and Buck to push a mislynch on me today. However leaving penguin alive probably would have garnered the same result.
Yates killing penguin does make sense since he's the only other person who is almost unanimously considered to be town, leaving me and Buck to fight it out today while he coasts on by.

Look. There is no scenario where I would want to kill Penguin. Penguin has had a Town read on my slot this entire game. If I were scum and Om was Town, I would have killed Om.

Scum-Buck killing Penguin would make sense since he knows I do not have a good feeling about Om and he could exploit it. BUT same would have happened with Penguin alive. Only difference between the two - I have actually voted Om and have been fairly vocal about my Town read on Buck.

Scum-Om killing Penguin makes sense due to the scum read + added bonus of creating ultimate WIFOM scenario.

This is where I'm at right now.

[Yates]

You missed one reason for why a scum-Yates kill on pengiun makes sense: it leaves me and Om to duke it out as we were the most antagonistic towards each other earlier.

How would that have been different if Penguin was alive and I was dead?

This is why I'm thinking it has to be Om scum. You were Town for both me and Penguin. Om was scum for both me and Penguin. Either of you being scum means a coin flip last night.

I have to go back and do some wagon analysis.

[Yates]

Really the only defense against the incriminating kills I have right now is that it's just too good to be true.

So your defense is "ignore Occam's Razor?"

[Yates]

Guys? We need to get moving on this.

[Yates]

Predictable. All you did is prove Buck isn't scum - because he hasn't hammered - which I already knew.

Vote: Om

This is so obvious it is painful.

[Yates]

Dude. Game is over. Give it up already. Nobody is buying it.

[Yates]

I can't answer for DRMY other than to say I know his head was in the right place for most of this game.

As to these?

9) Post 390: Yates jumps in for DRMY and acts like he doesn't know that Mafia know who is chosen. This smells a lot like a fake town-slip post. Yates Loses here.

10) Post 395: Yates bets his life that Siv is not chosen. Only mafia would know that for sure. Yates loses here.

11) Day 2: Om calling two VTs as chosen is suspicious of trying to get chosen's lynched. But, Yates was the first to point out this in post 452.

12) The mala lynch: Mala voted Om the day before but said he would rather get Yates. Yates would have the most to gain by offing her. Yates loses here.

13) Post 478: Om saying someone trying to prove him wrong? Sounds like Om-scum trying to give himself town cred. Om loses here.

14) Post 499: Yates agrees to killing either Hyerion or Penguin but aims for the chosen one the most. Yates loses here.

9. I legitimately didn't know. This is my first Chosen Mafia game. Feel free to check my games.
10. I was actually going to bet my life Siv was scum but hedged by saying he at least wouldn't be Chosen. It isn't scummy to be wrong.
11. Kind of proves my point from 10. I wasn't playing "guess who's Chosen" because that was less important than playing "guess who's scum."
12. That is true. However, scum-Om knew that. He killed Mala to set me up and it's crystal clear.
14. This is where context is important. Take a look. Penguin finally started stepping up and looking Town. I think you can agree with me on that. By day's end I was debating between a scummy Hyperion and a gut-scum read on Om. I didn't even get a chance to vote before the hammer. So this should reflect poorly on me. If anything, shouldn't the scum points go to the hammer??

[Yates]

Edit:

"So this should reflect poorly on me" should read "So this should

NOT

reflect poorly on me."

[Yates]

So this should reflect poorly on me. If anything, shouldn't the scum points go to the hammer??

Hey look who's trying to shift the blame.

ME!!

In the immortal words of Johnny Cochran, "If the glove don't fit, you must acquit." The glove don't fit me and fits you like - well - a glove.

[Yates]

Yates didn't want to be lynched, instead he wanted to lynch Hyperion.

OMG! I didn't want to be lynched! As I clearly stated when you brought up this "genius" strategy, I thought Penguin and myself were likely Chosen. So yeah, I didn't want to allow you to lynch me - a Chosen one. Also, as I have already stated, Hyperion was playing scummy and I had no reason to believe Hyperion was alive due to being Chosen. Even with that said, I still thought you were scummier but based purely on gut - and that isn't a great way to win a game. I also DIDN'T vote to lynch Hyperion because I was still trying to build a case as to why my gut was telling me you were scum so I could present an actual case rather than say "because I think so." You conveniently took care of that for me by hammering hence the above post.

Om, you are so scummy it's ludicrous. Your only hope is to try to wifom and trick Buck and that has clearly driven your last two NK's. We are going to lynch you and Town is going to win. The end.

[Yates]

Thanks for letting me replace in, all. I wasn't sure how Buck was going to go [knowing full well Om was going to vote for me]. I just couldn't kill Buck or Om over Penguin last night. Sometimes, the bull wins...

[Yates]

I'm guessing killing Buckwild would have spilled the beans on the Chosen identities, which might not have been advantageous for you?

Bingo. That was my thought process. Also, I honestly *do* like the way you think and would love to be Town with you one day.

[Yates]

Thanks, Mehdi. Glad you were dead.

[Yates]

I would have tried harder today if I thought I needed it. Instead I figured I would let Om's scumminess inform Om's opinion.

That said, I like Buck too and wouldn't mind being Town with him in a game.