Micro 52: Speedygorge Mafia (GAME OVER!)

[penguin_alien]

Hello all! I'm going to opt not to request an extension for the day, as I feel pretty caught up.

First off, UNVOTE: Sivure DtTrikyp to free up my vote.

Based on my most recent read-through of the thread, I'd put Buckwild as my best town read, with Malakittens as the only other town read I'd take to the bank at present. The former is due to his relative transparency of thought and his low level of null reads over the course of his commentary (two that I saw in total, and given that one was on my slot's predecessor for nearly nil activity, can't criticize that). The latter....I know there's been a lot of heat on her, but reading her posts in ISO mode gives me the sense that what she's been saying is internally consistent.

On the strong scum side, certainly I can't disagree with those who read malpascp as scum, given his tendency towards one line posts with little content. Seems like someone who wants to stir up discussion but not contribute, something that would help scum determine who they'd want to target at night. I also find Mehdi2277 somewhat scummy. Not for anything glaring, but little things, like twice asking what others' reads on him are. I realize that the second time had an explicit motivation behind it, but in my very limited experience town players are more interested in forming reads on others than knowing how others are reading them when they're not in imminent danger of being lynched. His activity's picked up as the game's progressed, and while it could be scum taking advantage of a quiet town, it could also be the sign of someone growing more confident in his opinions as content builds. Bottom line, I don't think both Mehdi2277 and malpascp are scum (pre-emptive 'duh' goes here) but if malpascp doesn't flip scum, I'd be willing to revisit this train of thought in the next day phase.

The Om/James slot felt slightly scummy to me at the start, but without James posting since then, I don't feel comfortable reading much into it. Siveure DtTrikyp claiming he'd make a case on Eidolon and then completely flaking on that, followed by voting for someone else for not getting into the game, reads oddly to me. I'm not inclined to revote him, but his very short reads and lack of followthrough aren't making me read him as town.

I was thinking about putting my vote on malpascp to put him at L-1, but I see that Eidolon beat me to it. Since hammering in my first post would be beyond bad form, I'll just state that I'm willing to hammer before the end of phase in the interest of putting my money where my mouth is, but I figure I should give people a chance to ask me questions, argue with my reads, or anything else that might help provide a read on my slot other than, 'not participating.'

[penguin_alien]

In looking over Siveure DtTrikyp's posts, I really don't like that he claims to have this grand case on Eidolon and also says he's presented it, when the reality is quite different. He doesn't like her post #33, but he never bothers to give an actual reason, saying:

What?

VOTE: Eidolon

and

For example of what I dislike about eidolon



In post 33, Eidolon wrote:Something doesn't sit right with me about your post. At first i was thinking maybe it's because you made big deals out of nothing, but that's kind of necessary in the early stages of the game. then it hit me. you pretty much fosed every single person who gave content in the game. you really think providing content is scummy? The details that you point out don't matter so much.

But i give you props for at least helping to move things out of rvs.


I don't like this sort of thinking at all.

neither of which is exactly a stellar argument or even explanation beyond 'do not like; vote!' For all his talk of finding her scummy, he never bothered to present a case, not even in dribs and drabs.

And then he jumped on the malpascp lynch without giving a reason beyond his not getting into the game. Seems like he didn't want to point out what was actually scummy about malpascp's play, instead acting like it wasn't a vote he was invested in. It put him on the wagon but left him uncommitted enough that if he was able to claim to be swayed later, it wouldn't seem like he was abandoning a deeply-held theory.

I want to hear what he has to say this day phase, but the only thing keeping me from voting for him right now is that as far as I can see, at the time he voted for malpascp, if he hadn't voted, and assuming no one was moved to add votes (unlikely perhaps) malpascp's vote on Malakittens would have been the one that dictated the lynch target, what with it being the most recent vote cast to bring players to a tie. From the feel of the game it might have been irrelevant, but it definitely seems like if Siveure DtTrikyp was scum, he bussed his partner. I don't have any experience with this voting mechanic (in which pluralities and ties factor in in the absence of a simple majority) so I may be misreading the situation.

[penguin_alien]

How are drmyshotgun's V/LA's different? I'm asking because two weeks would be long if that meant being completely out of the thread for two weeks, but I assume you have something different planned?

I don't feel like I have anything helpful to contribute at present, as I don't think either Malakittens or drmyshotgun has a really strong argument against the other. I guess this is mostly a prod dodge, but I'll add my voice to those wanting to hear a lot more from jamestfox/his slot if he ends up replaced. Also my suspicions are not remotely assuaged by Siveure DrTrikyp's post. I want more content.

I'd vote for jamestfox for pressure, but if he doesn't respond to the prod, it's rather pointless.

[penguin_alien]

^ ...why?

[penguin_alien]

By my count we have three V/LA's, one not-posting jamestfox slot that has to be close to replacement status if not there yet, and Buckwild, Siveure DtTrikyp, and me.

Siveure DrTrikyp, why do you keep saying things like you thought you made another post, or you have more of a case to make, and then not providing this content? It reads like you're trying to acknowledge those who say you aren't doing what you said you'd do but then deflecting attention onto anything else. It's not very transparent pro-town posting behavior as far as I can read it.

[penguin_alien]

Seriously Siveure DtTrikyp, ISO yourself. I'm not asking for some post wall of minutae for any scum case you want to make; I'm asking for a case that doesn't involve you quoting Eidolon's posts and saying ergo she must be scum. That's not an argument.

Given your persistent obtuseness in this regard, I'm good with VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp until I either get a coherent argument or opinion from you or we hear something from jamestfox's slot.

[penguin_alien]

If Om of the Nom is back, my first question for him is whether Eidolon is still his top scum read, given that malpascp flipped scum and mehdi2277 flipped town. And if so, can you back that up with a reason beyond a 'two-choose-one' scenario?

[penguin_alien]

To clarify, I unvoted when I replaced in and planned on putting malpascp at L-1. While I was posting my longish first post, you (Eidolon) put in the L-1 vote. I figured it would be crappy form to come in as a replacement and bring relevant discussion to an end for the day by hammering, especially if anyone had anything to ask my slot. Then drmyshotgun hammered two hours later. My vote for Siveure DtTrikyp is based on him avoiding making an argument this day phase.

To highlight the relevant quote from me:

I was thinking about putting my vote on malpascp to put him at L-1, but I see that Eidolon beat me to it. Since hammering in my first post would be beyond bad form, I'll just state that I'm willing to hammer before the end of phase in the interest of putting my money where my mouth is, but I figure I should give people a chance to ask me questions, argue with my reads, or anything else that might help provide a read on my slot other than, 'not participating.'

I'm also not sure why you don't think Siveure DtTrikyp could be scum, given that he was your top suspect WITH malpascp, as opposed to an either/or situation, in the post where you voted for malpascp (#241)

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp

I'm in a time crunch at the moment, but I'm willing to consider that he isn't actually scum.

[penguin_alien]

From #336, Buckwild, I unvoted Siveure DtTrikyp because his reaction to the pressure seemed to be more flailing than scum-dodging. His quick self-vote/unvote in particular read as self-directed frustration upon realizing that he didn't have a case he thought he had.

In your #345, why are you fine being lynched? If you're town, you have to be concerned that you're Chosen, and while I suppose we can win via old-fashioned deductive skills, the only mechanistic thing we have clearly in our favor is having two un-nightkillable townies at present.

Buck is acting kinda weird, but facing all the stupid discussions around here it doesn't seem scummy.

is the only time malpascp mentioned another (currently living) player aside from the post in which he declared Buckwild to be townie-town and Malakittens to be scummy. This was before it was almost certain that malpascp would be the day one lynch, for what it's worth.

[penguin_alien]

ODN = Optical Distribution Network?

Buckwild, why the pressure to vote OMGNOW? We have four days until deadline, i.e. ~28% of the day phase remaining.

I do like Yates' comments on Siveure DtTrikyp (consider yourself welcomed, damnit) and would like Siveure DtTrikyp to respond specifically to points made therein.

I owe the Yates slot-Om of the Nom deteriorating discussion another readthrough, as I think it may contain relevant things amidst the conflict, before I vote, but I'm willing to put my vote back on Siveure DtTrikyp barring a good response from him.

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, consider me chastened, Malakittens...oh no, wait, not so much given that 50% of your posts today have been one-liners of dubious value, with "No." as the crowning gem of them all.

Still not sure what Buckwild was referring to in post #325, but I'll assume the countdown target changed? Even though that doesn't make sense on a two-week day phase cycle.

Siveure DtTrikyp's posting leaves me rather uncertain, as it reads like town that has done scummy things and doesn't know how to dig out, but it also fits well for scum.

Some of Om of the Nom's posts make sense, but then he throws in these wild curveballs, like saying that one of Mehdi2277's town reads must be scum. Seems to me that if a scum team is down to a solo act and must get through two more lynches plus LyLo to win, the last thing they'd want to do is off their supporters. His case on Buckwild in #358 makes more sense, but then my read on his logic goes right out the window when he gets all hyped up about being questioned on his predictions of who the Chosen townies are. Amongst those three, I'd put Buckwild and drmyshotgun-Yates slot at the top of my town read list, which makes me look sideways at Om of the Nom.

Nevertheless, since Siveure DtTrikyp doesn't seem to be mustering any argument for why we shouldn't lynch him and is sheeping, I'm fine with going back to VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp again. I believe this puts him at L-1, for the record.

[penguin_alien]

Because the expected is expected for a reason? Off the top of my head it's the same type of logic puzzle as why, with a revealed cop and a (known to exist) hidden doctor,

usually

the doctor should protect the cop. And with Malakittens and Buckwild in Mehdi2277's strong town reads, and both of them being mentioned prominently by a flipped (experienced, based on the sig) scum, why do you assume that it's the one malpascp propped up is the buddy? I know there were other reasons for your read on Buckwild later, but that one still doesn't track to me.

[penguin_alien]

Om of the Nom, as far as I can tell from reading your ISO, you think Siveure DtTrikyp is Chosen because Buckwild was weakly defending him, something he might do if Siveure DtTrikyp was Chosen and Buckwild was scum trying to get town-cred. With one scum left, you're now thinking that scum is Yates, or at least enough to put vote pressure there. So where do you get evidence that Siveure DtTrikyp is town, if your only evidence of such was based on Buckwild as scum?

[penguin_alien]

Buckwild still isn't completely clear to me, but Yates is also pushing Siv, and with the amount of people who are attacking him there's bound to be one scum going along for the ride.

Unless Siveure DtTrikyp is scum. Has he himself done anything to make you think he's town? Or even something significant that isn't scummy?

[penguin_alien]

There's only one more scum. And to be fair, since lynches in this setup go by plurality (ties broken with timing of votes) a scum wouldn't need to push the lynch as long as the votes are like this. Although I do think it's convenient that he is so certain that the scum is voting there and that it dovetails with his proposal that one of Mehdi2277's strong town reads is scum. It puts him in a good position to push a lynch on Buckwild or the drmyshotgun-Yates slot with a long paper trail if he's scum propping up the very scummy Siveure DtTrikyp.

And Hyperion, why Buckwild over Siveure DtTrikyp?

[penguin_alien]

Argh, apologies for the double-post, but I realized as soon as I hit 'Submit' that I meant to add more to the last question. I've seen what you think is suspicious from both of them, so what tips you toward Buckwild?

[penguin_alien]

I find it unlikely that a scum-Buckwild or scum-drmyshotgun/Yates would have tunneled on someone who wasn't Chosen. Possible, but not likely. I don't agree with all of Om of the Nom's logic, but for now that's not enough for me to vote. Hyperion not voting at all or explaining his preference for a Buckwild lynch over Siveure DtTrikyp last day phase is the closest to scummy I see off the top of my head, but it's again not enough for me to want to vote him yet.

[penguin_alien]

If both of them had been Chosen, I'd have chalked it up to good guessing on your part. If one of them had (presumably Siveure DtTrikyp, since him as vanilla and Malakittens as Chosen wouldn't have had her eligible for an NK) I'd be more suspicious of you . As it stands, I'm not sure how it benefits you as scum to have been so emphatic about who you thought were the two Chosen and have it be proven completely wrong.

You weren't here for the first flip of scum-malpascp IIRC, and I don't think there's anything much to conclude about mehdi2277's being NKed.

Not sure how it is that I'm using you as a scapegoat after whittling the choices down to me and Hyperion? Are you saying my moving Buckwild and Yates down my suspect list leaves the three of us, and somehow I've eliminated Hyperion? I think I said that I thought his posting was the scummiest of the bunch. Most of what I'm reading from you is that I have trouble following your logic to reach your conclusions, which makes it hard for me to place you confidently as town, but it doesn't make me assume you're scum.

[penguin_alien]

See, here's where I have trouble following you. You say it's highly likely I'm scum, same with Hyperion. Your argument against me can't be the same as Hyperion. Unless you only mean that Hyperion and I are your only two suspects?

Yes, you were going on about Siveure DtTrikyp and Malakittens being the Chosen, but I never really thought your arguments were particularly persuasive, so it isn't my first instinct to clear you as a result of their flips.

And if I were scum I'd need to get a Chosen lynched today, otherwise I'd lose; I wouldn't be worrying about getting both of you lynched. Or do you now think you and Hyperion are the Chosen?

Finally, I moved Yates and Buckwild down my suspect list due to their consistent voting for someone who was not Chosen; is it that flip that has also reversed your position from having voted for Yates in particular as of the end of yesterday?

[penguin_alien]

So I'm one of your main suspects because I didn't think that you incorrectly calling the Chosen meant all that much. The more I think about it, the less I think it really clears you of anything, actually. If you were scum, trying to convince the town that two vanilla townies were Chosen would increase the odds of getting a lynch on an actual Chosen instead, so it's not cut and dried. Any other apparently scummy behavior from me you'd like me to address?

On the subject of Hyperion-Eidolon, when it was Eidolon in the slot, I was pretty sure she was town based on the tone and content of her posts. Hyperion's lack of commitment to any reads after his first post makes me less confident. Since I know I'm town, if I were to stick with my initial read on Eidolon, that would make one of Buckwild, Yates, or Om of the Nom scum, none of whom are popping as scum. Looking back at malpascp calling special attention to Buckwild and Malakittens, with the latter flipping vanilla it could be that it was scum hoping to incriminate either of them depending on whether people figured malpascp would be more likely to call a buddy scum or town. Without doing a longer reread, that's all I have for analysis at the moment.

[penguin_alien]

Hyperion, hope you heal rapidly. Repeating what others have said about prioritizing your health over this game.

For what it's worth, I plan to take another look at Yates and Buckwild in particular before Buckwild returns for discussion to cover all bases, seeing as I'm waiting for the Hyperion-Eidolon slot to post more content and answer why he felt Buckwild was his preferred lynch over Siveure DtTrikyp but he didn't place a vote (and yes, I realize that if he replaces out the question may be irrelevant). So, prod dodge for now.

[penguin_alien]

...I failed to get my ISO's read. I'll do that within 24 hours.

And Hyperion, if your slot is the second scum, your predecessor could have planned something from the start.

I don't have any quibbles with the info Buckwild's used for his reads. Like I said, I'll have to do my own information collating to see if I come to the same conclusions, but I don't see anything scummy in the cases he makes. (Although I'm female...I keep checking my profile to make sure I'm not hallucinating having included my gender!)

[penguin_alien]

OK, quick ISO reads reinforces my conviction that Buckwild and Yates are not scum. drmyshotgun's reactions read as town in too many places for me to believe otherwise along with Yates' contributions, and if Buckwild's scum he's playing a very long and risky game. With his pre-emptive calls based on malplascp's lynch, he also said that if malpascp was scum, he wanted Siveure DtTrikyp lynched. And since he wasn't Chosen, that wasn't a great scum set-up. He didn't even list multiple people, which would have been justifiable since he listed multiple people he suspected if malpascp flipped town.

I don't really trust my reads on Om of the Nom, but I think he's more town than Hyperion's been. Barring a good relevant post from Hyperion, he's my top lynch choice for today.

[penguin_alien]

...pretty much what Yates said. I'll give it 24 hours for Hyperion to give us a good reason why he isn't scum or why someone else is, preferably both, or I'm good with lynching him.

[penguin_alien]

Buckwild, if Om of the Nom were scum and just wanted any lynch to go through he'd be playing very suboptimally. Obviously hitting scum is a moral victory for us, but as long as we don't hit one of the Chosen townies it's a town win.

And hi Klazam; thanks for stepping in!

[penguin_alien]

Yates, what do you think of Eidolon? I'll admit that I wasn't really focused on her while she was in the slot, mostly because Siveure DtTrikyp kept saying he thought she was scum with no case whatsoever. The only other thing that jumps to mind is that Om of the Nom had her as an option for his second scum read as either mehdi2277 or Eidolon along with a lock-in for malpascp.

Looking over her posts, voting for malpascp could be seen as seeking town cred, especially as that was going to be the lynch under plurality rules anyways. Some of her statements made sense as well, but nothing stands out as strongly town or scum. The slot didn't really look shady until Hyperion jumped in though.

Without Hyperion making better arguments, I'm good with VOTE: Hyperion.

[penguin_alien]

Sure thing, Yates.

[penguin_alien]

Mod: Welcome back, and I think I voted for Hyperion in #543

Everyone else, the votes from me and Buckwild have put Hyperion at L-1, /PSA

~Maestro

[penguin_alien]

Om of the Nom, I'd prefer you wait until Hyperion can get some last words in. If it gets down to <24 hours to deadline and he hasn't stopped by, fine, but if he isn't scum his last thoughts would be relevant.

[penguin_alien]

I agree with Buckwild that if Hyperion was a vanilla townie we'd see the scum fighting it. To be more specific about the lack of resistance, we have two of us voting for him, one person (Om of the Nom) ready to put down the hammer, and another (Yates) who is not pushing another target and seems to think there is plenty of scummy activity from the Hyperion-Eidolon slot. In case it becomes relevant to clarify where everyone seems to stand on Hyperion.

Hyperion, do you have any reasons aside from the meta to suggest why Buckwild would be scum over Om of the Nom? I realize that your strongest professed read for scum is Om of the Nom based on gut, but if you have anything about Buckwild you think we should consider, it would seem that this is your chance.

Buckwild, if Hyperion is the scum he's seemed to be prior to his last couple posts taking the tack of 'town accepting/not minding his lynch' said tack could be an attempt to push us toward Om of the Nom. My problem with jumping on that is that to my recollection, no one was really pushing Eidolon. There is one vote for her in the VC at the top of page 8 from Buckwild, and my slot and known town Siveure DtTrikyp are voting for her as of page 7 (I am totally going to owe Siveure DtTrikyp an apology if Hyperion flips scum...), and Yates' slot was there even earlier. There was no real attempt from anyone of unknown alignment to start a wagon going. To my reading, the votes seem more like attempts to provoke activity or a response to questions (or a gut read as far as I can tell from Siveure DtTrikyp) than persuasions to others to get a lynch going. How do others interpret those spots?

[penguin_alien]

Are we going off your guesses for who's Chosen and who's not? Because that seems like a bad idea based on history this game...! ;~)

Seriously, the thing is, based on who we know is scum, malpascp, the only living players he mentioned were you (Om of the Nom) and Buckwild. The former was RVS, and the latter was a last-ditch post where I'm assuming he knew that when he flipped scum mehdi2277 would look very town, so by inference he might be able to set Buckwild up as scum. Yes, we can WIFOM about it a lot, but I don't think either is a good indicator of who might be Chosen. And if we could figure out who was Chosen based on who was being pushed for (unsuccessful) wagons, we could probably nail the scum based on that, making an attempt to find a VT irrelevant.

[penguin_alien]

I'm a she or her, darn it.

I think the last part is implying that we should lynch someone likely to have been vetoed?

From the Hyperion-scum perspective, we'd have Buckwild and Om of the Nom as the pushees/Chosen.
From the penguin_alien-scum perspective, we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Om of the Nom-scum perspective we'd have penguin_alien and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Buckwild-scum perspective we'd have Om of the Nom and Hyperion as the pushees/Chosen.
From the Yates-scum perspective *I think* the closest we have is Hyperion and Buckwild as the pushees/Chosen, although there was some consideration of penguin_alien and Om of the Nom as well scattered in there. That makes me think there's no way he's scum, but if the actual scum concurs with this, it could throw off other Chosen reads.

Correct me if anyone thinks anyone else has been pushing two different people more strongly, but this is what I'm coming up with based on the day's activity.

Actually, I think scum would be best served by making one solid push rather than splitting their focus, particularly in the event that Yates is one of the Chosen. This would be the best way to seem to be town trying to find the last scum. By which philosophy I'd conclude that you (Om of the Nom) and I are the only ones really pushing a single target, and for both of us that's Hyperion.

I see problems with lynching me or Yates (aside from the old standby of, 'I am the only person I know to be town 100%, so I am the least optimal lynch from my POV). In Yates' case, it's because a scum not pushing his lynch could be abandoning it due to the fact that I suspect the suggestion that Yates is scum would get one laughed into the noose at this point. If Yates is one of the two Chosen, scum is better off aiming for the second Chosen and NKing Yates post-Chosen #1 lynch. In the case of my hypothetical lynch, I cannot help but feel that you'd be my second choice for scum but for Hyperion being rather exponentially more scummy. Which makes your assurances that you were suggesting I be lynched at the start of this day purely from a town perspective less than...reassuring. It could also be read as scum-you seeing which target would stick better and going after the lower hanging fruit in the form of Hyperion.

[penguin_alien]

I would posit that my slot is unlikely to have been vetoed since it was started with someone with a short track record (and replaced by my own short track record, but that's neither here nor there) and the same would go for Eidolon and Buckwild. Unless either has some outstanding experience on the site or games with others I'm not seeing.

Since scum doesn't have to NK, I think we're best off voting our top scum suspect. Missing scum puts us at LyLo next day phase with the same problem of trying to hit scum or in the event of 4-person LyLo (an odd [or even!] proposition) a VT if we don't hit Chosen today. I think my logic is getting less articulate as the hour grows late here. At any rate, we're better off with two tries at hitting scum than playing the random odds of outguessing Chosen vs. VT in my opinion. Plus I'd rather have more people that look like solid townies around in the next day phase. Say we kill Yates and he's Chosen, then scum kills me, or vice versa. You're at endgame with both of your scum suspects, as are Buckwild and Hyperion. Have fun with that.

[penguin_alien]

...keep in mind if we want Hyperion lynched, we don't need to do anything, as lynches work on a plurality basis. So Yates, please don't hammer and end discussion.

[penguin_alien]

Well played to malpascp, Yates, and drmyshotgun. That's a rough situation for you, Buckwild; you'll get 'em next time!

Yates, why kill me last night? After I came in and pushed for two townies, one of whom was Chosen, I figured I'd be easy lynchbait. I'm guessing killing Buckwild would have spilled the beans on the Chosen identities, which might not have been advantageous for you?

Om of the Nom, sorry I spent so much time not believing you...I really didn't have a good read on you at all, to my dismay.

Maestro, thanks for modding; hope to play in another of your games sometime.