Micro 14: Think Twice (Day 2) *Sunshine Icon Here*

[saulres]

Woo, nice fast game already. I can't keep up with the pedits so screw them.

Siveure DtTrikyp, why did you self-hammer in Sword Swallowing?

Why are you asking that for this game? I can't figure out the reason instead of asking in that game.

I am about the worst person to get cleared, so I'm going to request that I don't be lynched day 1.

Not liking this. The only people who should be worried about getting lynched day 1 are the scum.

please provide links to the situation ice has mentioned

That's in the game I just finished modding. He provided the link to the post, and we discussed in a dead thread.

@saulres - what do you think of my posts so far

Um... I think they're coming too fast to keep up with This is a Micro, not a Marathon.

Why do you ask different questions of me and cobbler?

[saulres]

that is pretty much what I'm against.

When we move on, I'm going to be practically no help, as you can tell from me so far.

What the hell?

You do realize that whether we lynch you today or not, if you're town, you're going to be moving on anyway?

[saulres]

...

Gah.

I so want to hammer. Why?

If Siv's scum, yay. (And I really,

really

don't like his #8, for reasons I've already said.)

If he's town, I don't think we're going to find any better mislynch than him; if we mislynch someone else, we'd have to deal with Siv as a viable scumchoice in LyLo. That's not desirable.

And the best reason I can come up with for

not

hammering is

if

he's town,

and

we manage to lynch scum instead, we'd be free to lynch him tomorrow so he's not in LyLo. But of course if today we don't lynch scum instead then we're back to Siv being in LyLo. And if the best reason I have is so that he doesn't become a LyLo problem, why not just deal with that now?

The only things holding me back from hammering are that I don't think we have enough posts yet to determine a second viable scumchoice (although Cobbler's seeming lack of thinking this through doesn't bode well for him in my eyes), and that I agree with Tim's 10.

Tim, do you object to me hammering?

[saulres]

I'll take that as a "Yes, I do object" then

It sounds like you're on the same page I am with the concerns. Let's see what IceGuy has to say. And Cobbler if he sees anything else in the thread worth commenting on.

[saulres]

I wasn't so much trying to justify it, as trying to work through my thoughts.

You're

the one who actually put a vote down, giving, if Siv's town, the scum a chance to quickhammer.

pedit: Yes I know it's nightless, I read the setup. I also know for that for a little while at least, scum have daytalk. Which is why I didn't place any votes down, and asked what the closest I have to a townread thought. Your thoughts match mine, that's good.

pedit2: jumpy? You know how long I went back and forth on that before I finally decided to post it? I was torn, dude. But whatever.

[saulres]

Shift what blame? Nothing happened yet.

Your move was way riskier than mine. I have responsibility for

considering

voting for someone this early, and I take that. You have responsibility for actually doing so, take that responsibility. What if Grey and Cobbler are the scumteam? You could have handed them a quicklynch.

pedit: Yes, I know Tim didn't put down a hammer vote. No one did. Not sure your point there.

[saulres]

Yes, Cobbler is definitely a scum possibility as well. It's just he's not posting anything, so it's kind of hard to have a conversation with him.

And whoops, not GreyICE, IceGuy. I got mixed up with the "Ices".

pedit: It gets them into LyLo while they still have daytalk. That's not bad.

pedit2: Nope

[saulres]

I'm not sure what you mean. Yes, it's a scummy perspective -- you said QLing does nothing for them, and I thought "If I'm scum does it help me? Yes, because I could coordinate with my scumbuddy tomorrow and get town into a quick LyLo." That would be the scum's perspective.

I'm not sure what you're going for here.

[saulres]

I respectfully disagree. I look for scum thinking when I'm town, why wouldn't I? That helps catch them. It's like NK analysis.

[saulres]

Saulres, are you basically saying you could have made it a quicklynch, but you didn't, and the guys who were on the wagon are suspicious because it was nearly a quicklynch?

Basically, but not exactly. I'm saying the guys who were on the wagon are suspicious because they were

allowing

a quicklynch.

IceGuy was the one that'd played with him before, right? What do you think of his play here?

IceGuy played with him a little in the game I just finished modding. I saw his play there, where he was town, and his back-and-forth with Tim in 13 through 22

could

be just a playstyle. But his concern over being voted, in his

very first post

, made me think he was scum.

As for Saulres, I concur that he's jumpy. I've played with him once before, and while it was over a year ago and I don't quite remember the details, he seemed relatively more calm there and then.

Yeah, that was a long time ago, and was one of my earlier games. More recently, I joined two large games, one of which I was scum in, and that kind of changed how I play. Feel free to meta my recent games to see if my play here is more like my scum or my town play.

Although I wouldn't call me "jumpy". You're the one who's jumping his votes around, not me.

Timeater, whether you're scum or not, you're causing discussion and reactions. That's good. So far you've done Siv, me, and Cobbler; hopefully IceGuy will get on so we can get some good content out of him too. Although I'm going to sleep now.

Oh, before I forget: Tim, do you have a scum game I can look at for your scum meta? Thanks.

[saulres]

"Doesn't want to be lynched" is not a tell. Nobody likes to get lynched period

It's not that he doesn't want to be lynched. Sure, that bothered me, but the reason it became a strong scumread for me is

why

he doesn't want to be lynched.

Let's review: He said, "I am about the worst person to get cleared, so I'm going to request that I don't be lynched day 1." Actively

requesting

to not be lynched bothered me. But when he explained it, in 26, as I said in 28, his reasoning is because he'd be of no help to town. That set off all sorts of flags. If he's lynched today, he's going to be part of town

anyway

, all the way through endgame. So the reason is disingenuous.

I can see the request coming from a scum mindset. I can't see it coming from a town mindset.

And if you guys think me looking at the setup and taking every piece of what we know into consideration in my thinking is a scumtell, all I can say is that I have a history of making wild theories based on setup speculation, and that comes from looking at every piece of information we have in the setup and figuring how it could affect the game.

[saulres]

Work is really slamming me today. I hope to be able to get back to this before tonight, but we'll see.

[saulres]

Saulres, it's mostly because of following this. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... ew_on_cops

A confirmed innocent holds a different place to the town than an unconfirmed innocent. You can trust them not to be making stuff up because they're scum. However, if I had to lead a case on somebody as confirmed innocent I'd be making stuff up because I suck.

So you're worried that because you don't play well, you'll be making up cases which we'll see through, and you'd rather not have a confirmed townie status because -- we'd believe them? It still doesn't make sense. If you're town and you think your cases won't be good, a confirmed status would prevent us from mislynching you -- I still don't see why that's something you're trying to actively avoid. Town who's not confident should be

wanting

the confirmed status.

So still, I'm seeing you coming from a scum mindset and not a town one. Doesn't anyone else see that?

Speaking of which, Tim, when did you go from "Siv is scum" to "Siv is town"? And in that post you put Cobbler at L-1, which I still don't understand. What if he's town and scum quickhammered? Which is clearly what you were going for, with Ice not hammering and you calling him on

not

doing so, even though earlier you were calling me on thinking of doing the same thing to Siv. So it's not okay to do to Siv but it is okay to do on Cobbler?

Gah! And then in 86 you even

ask

me to hammer! Make up your mind, is hammering good or bad? Or does it depend on who the lynchee would be?

I'm seeing a very likely Siv-Tim scumteam here.

@Mod: When does the scum's 48-hour talk period end?

I want to vote.

You may assume it is most certainly over 48 hours after I opened this thread.

[saulres]

Tim, I'm rushed for time again at the moment, but I'm going to take your accounts into consideration. Thanks for explaining your process. I'd still like a link to a scumgame of yours if you have one.

Oh, but this, you're wrong on:

The time for the "scum talk period" is obviously up.

Not quite yet.

@Mod: When does the scum's 48-hour talk period end?

I want to vote.

You may assume it is most certainly over 48 hours after I opened this thread.

As of this post, that time is still 2.5 hours away.

[saulres]

Oh wait my bad reading. "Opened" the thread. That was at post 3. Meaning that's we've got quite some more time until they stop talking.

If you told me, I forgot. I'll check it later tonight (I hope).

[saulres]

I wonder if parts of those game were eaten by tigers? I see a reference in one to your "wham bam" style but don't actually see that style anywhere. So that's a dead end in meta-ing you.

I understand that you can change your reads -- everyone can do that, otherwise all games would be over on D1. What I'm asking (or trying to ask) is, what exactly

made

you change your read on Siv? You seem pretty deadset on him being town, but I still have a scumread on him; if you have a solid tell for him being town, then sharing it might make me change my mind. It would be good to have a solid townread on

someone

.

Would also like to see IceGuy and Cobbler posting more.

[saulres]

Conf-townies are good to lead town

Trust me, if you're town, you've made it abundantly clear that we shouldn't follow your lead. You won't automatically become a leader.

Saulres, besides this, why am I scum?

Besides your insistence that you not be lynched today? I don't necessarily have another reason, but in this game especially I don't think I need one, because if you are a mislynch, you're not a bad one.

Having said that, I haven't had a correct read in I can't remember how long. I think after this game I'll stick to modding. That's a large part of why I'd like Tim's reasoning for thinking you're conftown in his eyes. If

he

's not scum, maybe there's something I'm missing.

[saulres]

keep saying dumb shit like this and you're gonna get lynched

That'd save me the effort of trying to convince you...

But I don't understand why you keep not answering my question. You're acting like you have Siv as conftown. What has he done to give you that impression?

[saulres]

I do read the thread. I also forget things.

Siv's recent post made me rethink my position on him.

That must be what you're referring to. I missed that. Mea culpa.

[saulres]

Siv, I appreciate the town read, but while I'm trying to understand, I also still do think you're scum. Sorry.

Okay, reads. The possibility of coaching and directing during the daytalk period has been keeping me nervous this whole game, and is probably tainting my views of who's scum (thinking of how a buddy could be interacting with anyone). Now that that's over it'll be interesting to see if I can see any changes.

Along with my reads I'm going to give a "Would I vote him if I had to vote

right now

?" answer as well. There's more than just scumminess to take into account. Of course I reserve the right to change my mind as more activity happens or situations change.

Siv I think I've explained enough. I'd like to see what he does now that I know he's on his own. Would I vote? Yes, as I've explained before, because not only do I think he's likely scum but because he'd be a decent mislynch if he's not.

Cobble, in his first post of the game, put Siv at L-1 without calling it. That bothers me for several reasons. Then he flipped back and forth between me and Tim. I meta'ed him just now and that's not how he's played town in what I can find; he's usually not jumping all over his place with his votes, and I found one instance where he said "That's L-1". Put this all together and I'm leaning scum on him. Would I vote? Yes, because not only is he leaning scum, but if he's town, it would clear a replacement on a slot that hasn't done much.

Tim could be either. He's taking charge, but I've seen scum take charge and try to push things through so that's not enough of a tell. I see things I like, I see things I don't. Null for now. Would I vote? Not my first choice (nor my second), but yes. If he's conftown it would remove my concerns over the things I don't like and I'd seriously consider sheeping him.

Ice could be either. He only has one real post with content, and he danced around hammering Cobble, using an argument from a scumread of his as justification. Would I vote? No. The only reason at this point to lynch him would be for a potential replacement's clear, and that's not enough.

[saulres]

None of this null shit.

If you think I'm scum say why. I've given you more than enough information to form a proper read. Stop being ambiguous.

It defeats the purpose of what I'm trying to accomplish here.

Is this your purpose?

I'm waiting for you and cobb to attempt to show us solid reads then I'll solidify my own.

You want to see what everyone thinks before giving your own? So you can tailor your reads to them? How convenient it would be for scum to know what mislynch they could get today, and who will win the game if they lynch tomorrow.

This is why I'm null on you. You seem town and then you go and do a scummy thing like this.

(And yes, I know you gave them later, but only after IceGuy challenged you. That's not as strong a counter as if you had done it immediately.)

Also, asking everyone to "play up to your level", whatever that is -- look, if you're some sort of super-great mafia player, good for you. You're on a site full of people who aren't, and when you /in to a game you get what you get. If that's bothering you, perhaps you should restrict your play to only games where you have some control over who's playing in them.

More and more I want to know your alignment because I'm starting to think you're going to be as dangerous in a possible LyLo as Siv.

Siv

: Are you voting Ice because you think he's scum, because you think he'd be a better as a confirmed townie, or because you're just sheeping?

@Mod: When does cobbler come due for a prod?

Now might be good. He hasn't been onsite in over two days...

[saulres]

Siv

: Are you voting Ice because you think he's scum, because you think he'd be a better as a confirmed townie, or because you're just sheeping?

EBWOP: Yes, I'm blatantly sheeping timeater.

I thought it was a legitimate question. I saw your EBWOP, but I also saw:

ice would be somewhat better than cobbler as a confirmed townie...

That's mixed signals. First you gave a reason, then you said you were only sheeping.

That's why I asked.

[saulres]

Tim: Regarding Ice, I'm really not seeing the argument that he's scum, or that he's a better target to be conftown if we're wrong than you or Siv would be. I would rather put my vote on one of you two (or Cobbler).

But I'm not putting it on anyone yet, with Cobbler back (and I do admit I can only skim his recent posts and yours; weekend days I don't have as much time generally as I do during the week) I want to analyze him more for more scumtells and possible associations.

[saulres]

Damn Ice for being a shitty

scummy

empking player
Damn Siv for being a useless

scummy

noob
Damn Saul for being genuinely

scummy

and hard to read
Damn Cobb for being

scummy

as fuck

Right back at you.

Except, of course, I don't have everyone as a lynch target. While you seem to.

[saulres]

Tim self-hammered? I was not expecting that. Wasn't expecting anyone to self-hammer, really.

I'll save my observations for after the flip because they can obviously change how I read some things.

[saulres]

EBWOP: because "it" (the flip) can obviously change...

[saulres]

No, I don't. I really don't. I can, however, think of a reason (a balsy, and possibly lame, one, but one nonetheless) why scum would, and I want to see if that's what's going to happen, because that should help me identify your partner.

If you're town, though, not only are we in LyLo, but then there's definitely at least one scum on your wagon. So which one is it? I could see it being either of them (or both).

[saulres]

Okay. Tim town means I can discard my crazy theories and get back to something more solid.

First, Siv's back-and-forth on voting Tim is ridiculous. First he sheeps Tim to put IceGuy at L-1, then when I don't hammer he immediately puts the guy he just sheeped at L-1! Then he says he doesn't want to see-saw, but unvotes anyway! And then he goes back to Tim at L-1 but in his

next

post says "nobody quickhammer". Are you kidding me? If he didn't want anyone quickhammering Tim, he wouldn't have put him at L-1 in the first place! That second post feels like scum saying "Oh crap I better say don't hammer so when he flips town I can say 'I told you not to hammer! See? I'm town!'" Blech.

Meanwhile, Cobbler comes back from his break (with an obnoxious reason -- "oh, I took a site break, but didn't bother telling anyone who might be impacted by it") with possibly the worst "catch-up" post I've ever seen. He says basically, "I'm parking my vote on Tim and everyone else is null" which I read as "I'm hoping to get my mislynch and keep all my options open for tomorrow." On top of that he says "Timeater isn't

that

much scummier than everyone else" (so he's basically null too?), but

still doesn't unvote

to look for other scum, with about a week left to deadline.

I can't decide which of the above is scummier. Either of you have anything to say in your defense?

[saulres]

From your PoV, obviously. But why would scums definitely vote tim?

...

Tim's town.

I'm town.

There are two scum, but only one person unconfirmed in my eyes not on the wagon.

Therefore, at least one scum is on his wagon.

That's why at least one scum definitely voted Tim. Unless I don't understand what you're asking?

[saulres]

Oh. Well that's not what you asked. And I never said he has it from his POV. I asked the question from my POV, and figured Tim would answer it how he wanted to answer it.

But okay, I see you buddying up to him. I'll remember that.

pedit: I have only one scum game. All my other games are town; do you still want links to them? (Many of them were mangled or fully eaten by tigers sadly.)

[saulres]

you're basically saying either me or cobbler is scum, without mentioning ice in there at ALL

Right, because there's no need to. Ice could be scum, but he could not be. I know for a

fact

that at least one of you or Cobbler is scum. So I'd rather focus there, trying to get something concrete on one of you, then spend energy looking for scum where there might not be any.

[saulres]

I wish I knew, that would make it easier.

I'm waiting for Cobbler to make his defense. Then I'll decide which of Siv/Cobbler is more likely scum. Then I'll look for associative tells to get the other.

[saulres]

Cobbler could be scum, but he could be not. You know scum is definitely at least one of me/ice. You know scum is definitely at least one of cobbler/ice.

I see where you're coming from. And I'm ashamed to admit it took me a while to figure out that yes that makes sense. The only difference I can come up with why I had a block towards seeing that, is you were both on a wagon that voted a townie. He wasn't. So I'm more likely to find two scum in you two than I am in any pairing which includes Ice.

Having said that, you do have a point. So tomorrow I'll start doing double-ISOs or all three pairs (you/Cobbler, you/Ice, Cobbler/Ice), looking too at voting patterns, and see what I can come up with.

Tim

, do you have any preference which pairing I look at first? Because I'll try to put out my observations one at a time, and it'll take time (competing with work and meetings) to get through the three.

Defense of what?

Defense of this:

Meanwhile, Cobbler comes back from his break (with an obnoxious reason -- "oh, I took a site break, but didn't bother telling anyone who might be impacted by it") with possibly the worst "catch-up" post I've ever seen. He says basically, "I'm parking my vote on Tim and everyone else is null" which I read as "I'm hoping to get my mislynch and keep all my options open for tomorrow." On top of that he says "Timeater isn't that much scummier than everyone else" (so he's basically null too?), but still doesn't unvote to look for other scum, with about a week left to deadline.

[saulres]

Siv is making a good case on why he should be today's lynch.

This is basically your first post of the game which expresses any reason, no matter how remote, to vote for anyone other than Cobbler and me who you called scum in your first (and only real) content post of the game.

Did nothing else in the 10 pages change (or for that matter enhance) your reads?

[saulres]

I was going to do this separating the pairs but immediately I got hit by a "I need to look at the other possibilities here" so that's what I'm doing. While I'm working on that if I find questions I'll just throw them out.

As town, I try not to edit my posts

What do you do as scum?

[saulres]

It's still there and will become a real vote once there should be a hammer

What does this even mean? If someone else hammered Cobbler, your non-existent vote would have become a real one?

[saulres]

When I would have thought there should have been a hammer, I would have voted him, thereby hammering him.

Ah, thank you. I was reading "should" in a different way, the way I think Brits use it.

[saulres]

Ice, are you trying to get proof of your guilt? Shouldn't you be the one giving proof of your innocence?

What do you mean?

Siv, you never answered this.

[saulres]

WTF kind of "gambit" was that?

Town wouldn't self-vote like that now, even as a joke. Too many things could happen to prevent unvoting and allow scum to hammer a win.

[saulres]

Until I have definite decision on tim, ice or cobbler. Which is probably at the hammer, really.

Why not saulres?

Siv, haven't answered this yet either. And I'm wondering the same thing myself. Threw me off totally when I hit it. Were you still trying to suck up to Tim's reads there, after he was (again) challenging your play?

[saulres]

Okay, did my pairings analysis. Understand, this is looking at how the possible scumpairs would work together, with hypothesized scum reasoning. I've left out individual scumminess; those have for the most part been addressed elsewhere. I also left out things such as Siv restarting a wagon on Cobbler if I felt there was nothing to be gleaned from it.

What I did was look for things that I thought would give an associative tell, and then analyze each scumteam possibility for if that would fit what happens. I gave four rankings based on that analysis: Pairing likely, pairing possible, pairing unlikely, or nothing to be gleaned.

I've spoilered the details because wow this got long.

Spoiler: Events and Analyses

Event: Cobbler's first post of the game he votes Siv, putting him at L-1. Siv responds by voting Cobbler.
Associative Analsyis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Cobbler wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer, and Siv would be distancing. This could easily have been set up beforehand (or even realtime at that point). Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Cobbler wouldn't be worried about a quickhammer. Siv as town might have a legitimate read. Pairing possible.

Siv-Ice team: Cobbler as town would put Siv at L-1? Pairing unlikely.

Event: Iceguy's 69
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Cobbler-Ice team: Ice setting up one townie and a bus of his partner. HOWEVER, states intent to vote his partner "when the next VC comes and I'm sure to not accidentally hammer" when it's not hard on page three to figure out the VC. In any case, then the VC comes out, it's clear it won't be a hammer, and Ice doesn't lay the vote down. Pairing likely

Siv-Ice team: Ice sets up scumreads on two townies instead of his partner. Siv 79 gives another "pseudovote" on a townie. When Tim votes, Ice says "nobody hammer" -- to gain towncred it Cobbler does flip. Pairing likely.

Event: Siv's 92, taking Cobbler off of L-1
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Siv could have done it a post earlier, but that post was only four minutes earlier, and scum could still talk then so Cobbler could have told him to unvote? Pairing possible.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Siv unvotes to take the pressure off of Ice for not hammering. Pairing possible.


Event: Siv's 118, reads (Tim and me town, Ice null, Cobbler scum)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Cobbler's upcoming disappearance could have been discussed in private. Maybe Cobbler did so and left in the hopes that his scumbuddy would gain towncred for voting him while he was out. I go back and forth on this being pairing possible, or just another one of my crazy theories which would then make it pairing unlikely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Trying to convince Tim and me to vote Cobbler? Pairing possible.


Event: Siv's 142, puts Ice at L-1 (Tim has first vote)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned

Siv-Ice team: Tim had

just

posted reads of Ice as scum (strong) and Siv as scum (weak). Siv's trying to gain towncred in Tim's eyes. Pairing possible.

Event: Siv's 145, takes Ice off L-1, puts Tim at L-1 (Cobbler has first vote). He unvotes after Tim (no one else) votes:
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: In the preceeding post I did not hammer Cobbler. So trying to see if I'd hammer Tim? But he unvotes before I get a chance. Pairing possible.

Event: Siv's 164, putting Tim at L-1 (Cobbler has first vote)
Associative Analysis:

Cobbler-Siv team: Hoping townie would hammer so they could set him up? And then neither of them unvoting when the pitfalls are pointed out? Pairing likely.

Cobbler-Ice team: Nothing to be gleaned.

Siv-Ice team: Sets up his buddy to hammer. Pairing likely.

I feel everything after this is WIFOM and not worthy of investigation at this point.

Now, for each "pairing likely", I will give a +2, for each "pairing possible" I will give +1, and for each "pairing unlikely", I will give a -2, just to have some easy visual of my conclusions. Summing them up:
[*]Cobbler-Siv team: +2 +1 +(either +1 or -2) +2 +2 +2 = 9 + (either +1 or -2) so either 10 or 7.
[*]Cobbler-Ice team: +1 +2 = 3
[*]Siv-Ice team: -2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 = 5

So clearly, the most likely pairing is Cobbler-Siv, with the second likelihood Siv-Ice. The common factor? Siv.

I think we should vote Siv today. If we weren't in LyLo I'd place a vote now, but since we can't afford a mislynch -- does anyone see anything wrong in my above anlaysis (or its methodology)?

[saulres]

Gah! Sorry I've been out of thread so long. Work hit me yesterday and then I just took the night off from

everything

. I'm slowly getting some breathing space...

I'm nervous now to put a vote on Siv, because of the way Cobbler was so quick to vote him, without any comments. He's clearly followed the thread enough to know that he's the other prime suspect. Does he really think he's going to get towncred for dropping that vote? It makes me wonder if the team's Cobbler-Ice, and if Siv is just some massive,

massive

VI.

I'm going to run the averages on my scenarios like Siv suggested, he has a point that there will be more "events" for him than for the others because he has so many more posts than they. Maybe the average is the right way to do it.

[saulres]

Okay, looking at average points/events:

[*]Cobbler-Siv team: +2 +1 +(either +1 or -2) +2 +2 +2 = 9 + (either +1 or -2) so either 10 or 7. 6 events. So either 1.67 or 1.1
[*]Cobbler-Ice team: +1 +2 = 3. 2 events. So 1.5
[*]Siv-Ice team: -2 +2 +1 +1 +1 +2 = 5. 6 events. So .833

That shows a definite swing to Cobbler as the better target. Maybe we should lynch Cobbler today instead?

If we're wrong today, we lose. If we're right, we get a "free" lynch tomorrow. Let's make sure we hit scum today.

pedit: I did think about it. That's why I didn't vote Siv. The way Cobbler did it makes me think he's not bussing, but setting it up for his buddy to win.

[saulres]

I think I must have. Link?

[saulres]

That's not a link.

Look, I've been in LyLos before, and at least used to be pretty decent at them. In one 3-person LyLo I replaced into,

everyone

had a scumread on one of the other players -- the dead players, everyone posting in the thread, everyone. But I didn't vote him right away; I asked questions, I played and studied the game, and finally I found the slip the

other

guy had made, and won the game. If I had gone with the prevailing "wisdom", we would have lost.

I don't rush into voting unless I see a for-sure scumslip, and I won't be pressured to.

[saulres]

Those aren't slips, those are VI moves. Remember, we're talking about a guy who in my game

self-hammered

to put the town in LyLo.

[saulres]

I know he did that, and I wasn't trying to misrep. My point was that as town, he's made some big mistakes. It's not indicative of his being scum.

And why aren't

you

voting him if you're so sure he's scum? If you weren't conftown I'd be saying you're scum trying to bully through a lynch; who

does

that in LyLo besides scum? Only reason I can come up with is that you have a doubt

too

. Why you're not willing to explore it is beyond me.

[saulres]

VOTE: Siv

My first time

[saulres]

What 'chu laughing at?

[saulres]

[saulres]

Thanks man. You had me worried for a while -- actually the whole game.

I kept laughing to myself when you were saying I should play up to your level. It really wasn't in my best interests to do so

So who do you think was my partner?

[saulres]

Meh okay.

[saulres]

Thanks for hosting this, Grey. And for listening to my panicked mind. And especially for giving me a scumrole. <3

[saulres]

Hell yeah. Your first real post in the game had me thinking we had lost then.

Fortunately for us, Siv -- Well, I have some (hopefully constructive) comments for Siv, which I hope to get to later today.

[saulres]

LOL. Thanks Grey.

The nonsense was my way of trying to rank the possible scumteams (if I was town). I think Siv got it, and I'm guessing no one else really read my spoilered text. Without that, the jibbering nonsense is just that. With it, I solidly identified Cobbler as scum, which got me wondering if the method would actually work. I may use it again, at least in private.

Not voting Siv when you ordered him too really should have been a tip off, but oh well.

I dunno; Ice posted before me and didn't do it either. If he had, we wouldn't have gone through the gibberish

[saulres]

I was totally going to bus you on D2 if I had to. I don't know if you were following at that point, but I even offered you up (and somewhat pushed you) as an alternate lynch to Siv. That was due to my read of how the situation was playing out. And also kind of necessary, because you were

so

obvscummy I couldn't

not

have you as scum if I were town.

Really I'm not sure why you weren't the D2 lynch.

[saulres]

Please dont act like this game wasnt a wash.

Not sure what you mean. From my POV it wasn't a slam-dunk at all.