Micro 1080: Brass and Shrapnel - Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Skygazer

thank you !

[Something_Smart]

ngl i dont like people who give a readlist like this so early in the game. like honestly whats the point if this is gonna change, like do it in a private pt. sorry, no shade<3

something something cognitive load is that the nsg tell or am I misremembering?

[Something_Smart]

What's the NSG tell and what are you referring to here?

The tell I'm referring to is missing a joke and responding to it as if it was serious, considered a mild scumtell because scum can be more concerned about responding to things in a way that seems proper, rather than in a genuine way. I know that was a tell named after someone, I know nsg tell was a thing, I don't remember for sure if they were the same thing.

[Something_Smart]

lol i knew it was a joke, thats why i said no shade <3

Fair

Side note does anyone know how to selectively quote part of a post on mobile

[Something_Smart]

i havent even looked at any setup mech shit

Did you read your role PM?

[Something_Smart]

I was going to call this town since everyone knows what a mafia goon is, but I guess maf have a factional doc/RB too this game.
Meh, it's still good enough for a page 5 townlean.

I think I would agree, but I believe all bets are off for whether GrandpaMo would do something that makes any sense as scum.

It's been a while but I played a game where I was scum with him and he did some real dumb shit that got himself killed.

[Something_Smart]

We were, that's what I meant by "I was scum with him", sorry if that wasn't clear.

Also I did go back look at that game for some context, and there was more method to your madness than I remembered. You slipped some TMI trying to defend Victorine but then actually made an effort to come up with a claim that would have explained it.

[Something_Smart]

i mean im not saying i'm gonna play like nk15 or NM, i just mean temper your expectations for me.

I have no issue with a low-energy/measured playstyle but please do not quote a 20 line post for a 1 line response, it makes the game very hard to read.

[Something_Smart]

Classic scum move.

Gets pressured and gets called out on it and then stops the reasoning.

I don't know. I can see that being a town thought process. Especially since the thing you are currently accusing Merlyn of is very similar to the thing that you did when Merlyn brought up your supposed contradiction-- you said the KT thing was a big deal and potentially noteworthy, but also acknowledged that KT said it was nothing and agreed that it was irrelevant yourself.

It is a valid mode of reasoning for a townie to make an argument, receive pushback against that argument, and then decide that maybe what they saw isn't as big a deal as they thought.

[Something_Smart]

sorry phone posting hard

oh yeah it absolutely is. With the site upgrade a lot of things moved which is annoying but not inherently bad, but I think the mobile experience did definitely get worse overall.

If you don't want to edit a quote on mobile you can write the number of the post you're responding to. A little messy, but it'll work, and imo cutting down on thread clutter is pretty important.

[Something_Smart]

viewtopic.php?t=88188

That game was... highly memorable. Though I did have to go back and reread the scum PT to remember some of the details of what/when you claimed.

[Something_Smart]

I see what u mean . but when did I say the kt was a big thing? I was specifically referring to how Merlyn might see it. because i have been sticking to only one claim which is what u said, that it was irrelevant.

The post that Merlyn brought up as you saying it could be relevant later for interactions, 119. I think I can see what you were going for with that post but I can understand how Merlyn might have interpreted it the way she did.

[Something_Smart]

Or maybe I'm just misinterpreting it too. But if so, that should underscore that it's easy to misinterpret

[Something_Smart]

they give an aura of solving without like actual solving

when I read his ISO it looks like the opposite. He might be having thought processes (as evidenced by the reads he's stated), but he's not making them transparent.

What do you think he's doing to "give an aura of solving"?

[Something_Smart]

ok 179 is a pretty bad post

[Something_Smart]

honestly not feeling this as strongly but the quick-fire reads just felt like lukewarm/safe takes

what would be an unsafe take to make at this point in the game?

[Something_Smart]

I wasn't trying to simply shoot down your read, though if it was that easily shot down, it's probably better that it was.

Can't speak for other people, but if I'm pushing back on a read, it's almost always because I want to generate more discussion on it and analyze more in-depth, and not because I want you to shut up.

[Something_Smart]

I understand that sentiment.

I'm not sure the game is quite far enough along for it yet but if you still feel that later in the day we could try to jam about reads and see if we can come up with anything interesting. When I'm feeling out of it what I usually want is for someone to engage me in good faith on specific topics and try to get a discussion going.

[Something_Smart]

If you want something to engage with, I'd be interested to hear more thoughts on 179. bianco (I think?) already called it out as being weird, after seeing his post I agree with him, but I have a pretty hard time reading new players so I can't say I'm super confident in it.

It's a little hard for me to place exactly what I don't like about it (and I will not stoop to buzzwords such as "well poisoning"), but I think it's the double accusation of motivated reasoning. Motivated reasoning is a thing that happens all the time but it's obviously much more likely to come from scum, who need to generate arguments to fit the reads that are strategic for them, so even putting aside the fact that people may not recognize it in themselves, people are going to be very unlikely to admit to it.

So bianco is right. For someone who supposedly doesn't scumread GS, what purpose do those questions serve? GMo is never going to answer "actually yes, I just scanned the game looking for an excuse to scumread you instead of making a fair analysis". And they're not really solving-minded, or they'd be directed at others ("hey, does anyone else think GMo's meta scan was bullshit?") So it just kinda reads like a deflection, a knee-jerk attempt to attack the credibility of someone accusing you instead of actually solving them.

And in the same vein, Jason's 181 was perfectly timed, because Merlyn had left it kind of ambiguous and knowing the answer to that was vital to parsing 179. I wanted to know where Jason was going with that, it seems he has not gone anywhere with it yet. I guess in an ideal world I should be holding this post back until he does but... screw that, I want to spark more discussion. But if you get a moment Jason, I would like to know why you asked that, and what your conclusion is from Merlyn's answer.

[Something_Smart]

It is worth clarifying, since you may have misunderstood-- I am not saying Merlyn was using motivated reasoning. I'm saying Merlyn was accusing GMo of using motivated reasoning, in essence asking him "did you make stuff up to support your argument?" Which is a pointless question, because nobody would ever answer "yes" to that.

[Something_Smart]

This was absolutely directed at other town reading along and thinking that GS had actually read that game. This isn't Jeopardy, I shouldn't have to put the answer in a form of a question!

Was it meant to simply be a statement then ("GMo took five minutes to make that post and therefore could not have read the whole game"), or an invitation for other people to weigh in? If the former, then the way you phrased it was fine (if unnecessarily antagonistic), but I don't think the latter was clear at all. That post gave the impression that you just wanted to bicker with GMo rather than engage a wider audience on that point.

[Something_Smart]

I don't want to hear about 'you'd rather bicker with mo' when I said I wanted to drop it pages ago. And I definitely don't want to hear 'unnecessarily antagonistic' when the player who called me a liar gets off Scott free.

You should feel complimented rather than insulted, it means I'm holding you to a higher standard than GMo.

Or maybe I'm just numb to people saying "X is lying" when they mean "X is wrong". I did not read that post as antagonistic in the same way as I did yours.

[Something_Smart]

Like, I don't even have a good idea about who to vote for rn, and that's because the game is only about GS and I while scum lurks in the background and takes advantage of what was likely a TvT spat.

You think GS is town? On their own merits, or just because of the attention this conflict has received?

I feel like the only one drawing attention to it, besides GS themselves, has been me.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like the only one drawing attention to it, besides GS themselves, has been me.

Which, if you feel that scum are drawing attention to a TvT argument, answers your question about whom to vote I guess.

[Something_Smart]

Not crazy, just wrong.

hMMM is this a towntell in [current year]

To say that someone's reasons to suspect you are valid? I feel like we've hit the point where this kind of thing is standard scum fare but I really have no bead on the current site meta.

I hate to constantly be calling out things Merlyn does as scummy and I think it's bad for the game to do so, so I guess I'll go with my level 1 thinking and call this +town for now.

[Something_Smart]

Could have something to do with the fact that the hydra's got ~30% of the posts in the thread and it feels like a lot of us are just spectators (myself included, that's not an accusation).

This is a cop-out and a half. There is nothing stopping you from doing what the active players are doing; it's not like we're an exclusive club you can't join.

Now if you think everything is NAI, sure. That's the classic RVS problem, of how do we create content from nothing. But you can still create content there-- find something someone thinks is AI, write up a counterargument for why it isn't. Generate some discussion.

[Something_Smart]

That plan would prevent vigis from shooting bombs.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not sure how frank I should be about optimal scum play. I know what I think is probably optimal town play but it's only optimal if you assume scum will play optimally.

[Something_Smart]

I don't scumread Skygazer per se but I'm happy leaving my vote on them until they do something.

I didn't really like the Merlyn wagon despite my initial suspicion but I haven't really loved her response to being wagoned. It's kinda like-- it feels like there's a lack of urgency? Like she's like "oh well, guess I'm being wagoned, better try and stay calm and just try to figure out who's scum the way I normally would" which is a bit of an unusual response from town and especially from newish town. Especially given she had already dropped a fatalistic "if you're gonna lim me, lim me" but usually when townies do that they get annoyed when votes stall.

I think Jason is town for advancing solving particularly for the question I pointed out earlier. Drew feels towny too for playing in an aggressive and dynamic way that doesn't seem focused enough to be agenda-driven or motivated by looking good. I never have any idea what T3 is doing but turning to Alianna when he did is a strange choice as scum unless his partner is exactly Skygazer.

[Something_Smart]

SS do you have any scum reads or is it just Town reads all the way down?

I'd say the Merlyn read is a scumread.

I'll look at Kitty tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think we can even make a wagon in the next half hour so...

VOTE: No Execution

EMBRACE ANARCHY! LET THE MURDERIZING BEGIN!

if you think a wagon is preferable why are you not trying for one?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: KittyTacky

I definitely think a lim is better than none.

[Something_Smart]

I mean anarchy can still happen if there's a lim. That's kinda the point of this setup.

Sky, you still around?

[Something_Smart]

I don't think I can really read Kitty. Which I guess inherently makes him not an awful D1 lim in a game with no investigatives.

Tomorrow I want to reread and try to figure out who, if anyone, contributed to us not being able to arrive at a lim. I'm definitely partly to blame for my absence in the second half of the day, my weekends are busy and it was hard for me to re-engage, and I apologize for that.

GS's Merlyn vote stuck out to me, it seemed like a weird time to be re-litigating an old wagon that had died. It struck me that it might have been an attempt to distract from Kitty, food for thought if Kitty flips scum I guess.

[Something_Smart]

I'm semi down for a shot on Skygazer if they don't come back, though I think their willingness to hammer makes them much above-average likelihood to be a bomb, as a bomb who understands that they are perceived as scummy would be mostly negative utility (more likely to kill town than scum) and therefore more okay with dying in the day. A vig-Skygazer may want a chance to shoot first, while a supersaint-Skygazer would presumably want someone else to hammer them instead of the other way around.

[Something_Smart]

If Kitty is scum, Merlyn and T3 are spewed town by associatives.

Haven't verified this or looked at why you think it, but if you think T3/Kitty is ruled out then we're kinda running out of partners for Kitty, unless we think scum bussed which feels suboptimal. I guess GS/Kitty is possible, idk about Jason but I townread Jason independently.

[Something_Smart]

Cool. Definitely do not shoot Sky now.

[Something_Smart]

V/LA until Monday

[Something_Smart]

Why'd ya shoot them?

I also shot them

What do you make of my incorrect musing that you were likely to be a bomb?

[Something_Smart]

Also I think that between Drew and Sky's claims, Drew's is more suspect because he may have been hoping that Jason was the one who shot GS.

Both are probably +town though because they risk angering a live vig.

[Something_Smart]

It me. I'm back.

Not fully caught up but reading Merlyn's case and wow do Drew's posts look like a classic FoS buddy, vote townie. Good call there.

[Something_Smart]

It is relatively common for scum to say "X and Y are scummy" and then vote X, when Y is their buddy.

You spent a while talking about GS and Merlyn being buddies and voted Merlyn a bunch but never voted GS. Now that GS has flipped scum, it's not a great look.

[Something_Smart]

And I explained that I didn't feel there was support for a BianMo wagon so was pushing Merlyn more, who I thought there was more support behind.

Yeah this was the main counterargument that came to my mind. I'm not arguing anything conclusive, if course, and I'm still on my phone so I can't dig deeply into it quite yet. It's just a pattern I noticed, that I'm not sure if Merlyn called out directly.

[Something_Smart]

It is still especially bad that you specifically said Merlyn and GS were

partners

, since that absolves you of the need to push GS if you get the Merlyn lim.

Still trying to piece through what I think about the GS shot. Is there anything else that affected your decision to shoot GS over Merlyn, besides what you've already mentioned?

[Something_Smart]

What if Merlyn had flipped town?

[Something_Smart]

i kinda wanna hammer but am trying to be less impulsive

The biggest counterargument is that there's a chance Drew can confirm himself if he's a real vig.

[Something_Smart]

Pre Edit: Smart, in that scenario I probably still would have pushed BianMo, they seemed very hesitant to really push Merlyn hard.....sonin this alternate universe it could have been a case of TMI from them.......but we aren't in that universe, so here I still think they are buddies.

And also not giving too much thought to an impossible scenario lol

I'm having a hard time parsing this. GS's interactions with Merlyn indicate that they are buddies, but also make sense if GS is scum and Merlyn is town? Do they make more sense in a world where both are scum?

What from the Merlyn side of the interactions makes you think she's partnered with GS?

[Something_Smart]

Sorry for the bombardment of questions.

Basically one part of it, there just wasn't support for a BianMo wagon imo, wasn't gonna waste the energy when I knew I had a bullet at night(again, assuming I am not shooting blanks lol)

Why did you assume you were not shooting blanks?
And--

Still trying to piece through what I think about the GS shot. Is there anything else that affected your decision to shoot GS over Merlyn, besides what you've already mentioned?

Did you answer this?

[Something_Smart]

I feel if you are a vig, you should assume you have live ammunition when determining your decision to shoot or not shoot.

But you said you didn't push GS because you knew you could shoot them at night. But you didn't know that.

[Something_Smart]

I'm kind of concerned by how many people went from "Drew probably wouldn't claim the shot as scum" to "Drew is probably scum"

wasn't it just you and me that said this

and neither of us have actually voted Drew, I have thought about it and I do think his D1 is fairly sus but I still think claiming the shot is +town overall. so I don't know that this is really the massive transformation that it sounds like.

[Something_Smart]

Another thing I have yet to sit down and think about is, why wasn't GS docced, or maybe they actually were.

It's possible, but unlikely, that they thought roleblocking was better than doccing. However they clearly did not target their roleblock well if that was the case

It's also possible that they did in fact doc GS. This would make both Sky and Drew town and live vigs. I don't feel like this is that likely just because even if Sky and Drew are both town, it's only 1/3 that they are both live.

If we assume that the other scum member was docced, that means they weren't expecting GS to be under much threat. Unfortunately, I can't think of many partners where this would be unlikely-- even Sky, whom I publicly announced should not be shot, was still under some pressure and they might have still feared some rogue would do it (or that I was secretly planning to do it and didn't want my shot doubled).

I think Alianna and Merlyn would probably be no-brainer doc saves over GS. (A Merlyn/GS team

miiight

actually find it worth their time to block Drew, but he's only like 25% to be a live vig from a N1 perspective, so they probably would have expected to be better off saving Merlyn.) T3/GS is hard to tell, I don't think T3 was under any pressure but I also don't remember anyone calling him town? So that one might have been a toss-up.

The interesting one here is Drew/GS. Obviously, in this world GS could not have been the doc target, because there weren't two shots on GS (unless one came from Jason, but even then Drew claiming there is just absurd). So, it's potentially illuminating to go back and look how people were reading these two and which of them they would have expected to be shot. I personally was reading Drew townish and I don't think I'd expressed any townread on GS (in fact I did say their push back to Merlyn was weird).

[Something_Smart]

I'm gonna reread the whole game to look at interactions/read states now.

But first, I'm gonna go reread the beginning of the game I linked earlier to see how GMo interacts with buddies early.

[Something_Smart]

Ok in that game he did miss the game start PM and thus enter pretty late and he almost immediately started arguing with one of his partners, but did not end up voting them.

Seems like he would be wholly unafraid to banter with a partner early and in fact would probably be more likely to do so.

[Something_Smart]

also maybe merlyn but like their L-1 vote on merlyn makes me lean towards merlyn-town

probably yeah

and apparently drew is the one who unvoted after this? I'm not there yet but bruh I thought you were so confident in merlyn/GS scum why you voting skygazer and why did you say you felt better about kitty than merlyn

[Something_Smart]

Well, unless you want to make sure Jason has a spotlight to point. You sure did inject the narrative that ''the heat'' from Jason is not all smoke, otherwise why the need to divert right?

VOTE: Doc

Hm, I had forgotten that this vote happened. This vote lasts until 161, Drew never got above two votes in the meantime. Seems like it could be a pretty safe distance. That said, the reasoning for the vote in 161 was pretty organic, so they weren't simply looking for any possible excuse to hop off of Drew-- but with no Drew wagon in sight, it's not like they needed to.

[Something_Smart]

Alianna 108 seems town

I had noticed before upon ISOing T3 that he had a large amount of pointless interactions with GS on D1. I'm not sure if this was just because GS was posting a lot; I will have to look in context. I did get to 117 and it feels pretty out of the blue.

[Something_Smart]

I think 178 is also +town for alianna

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I kind of mixed up Merlyn and Sky toghether...
No matter, my point still mostly stands. It's just a lie.

+town for both

[Something_Smart]

Oh yeah, something just occurred to me.

If you are a vig, and you did not shoot Jason or GS, shoot the same target tonight. Because probably you're blank, but on the off chance you're live, you likely shot the scum who was docced.

[Something_Smart]

Alianna and I both put Drew as towny. I don't think anyone else (except for GS) expressed an opinion on him.

[Something_Smart]

this feels kinda suboptimal bc if they targeted docced scum theyll just hit docced scum again

And then scum can't roleblock you. (Also, there's a chance you shoot the same target and pierce the protection.)

[Something_Smart]

I'm here right now:

Something_Smart
Merlyn
Alianna
T3
Doctor Drew

my readlist looks basically the same except with your name in place of mine. not sure if this is mindmeld or groupthink.

I think we should probably get a claim from T3 before we go too much further?

[Something_Smart]

How so?

maybe overthinking but scum tend to not like to put their partners in null. especially with such a big scum pool, and we know that the partner isn't in the town pool, I would be surprised if GMo didn't try to smuggle in his partner in there for some free distancing.

I guess I could check for any reads in that post that aren't backed up by GMo's previously shared thoughts.

[Something_Smart]

There's some indication for all of them, though no direct scumreads stated on Skygazer and T3 before that post.

I might be persuaded to switch T3 and Drew in my reads, but I don't think it really matters, I think they both should probably be dying before endgame anyway.

[Something_Smart]

My biggest concern against eliminating Drew is that if he's town he may be able to shoot someone.

In particular if both of you agree to shoot the same target, that puts us in a pretty good spot. If that target doesn't die, that makes it very likely that one of the two of you is scum.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, but we gained a lim. Assuming no other shenanigans of course (which is maybe a foolish assumption, but I'm just brainstorming), since we're on evens right now.

[Something_Smart]

does vig resolve at night before a kill (could Jason have gotten a shot off before being NK'd?)

Yes.

[Something_Smart]

Depends what you want to do with night actions tonight. Shooting T3 is a gamble, and I wouldn’t recommend a shot on me either.

If you're gonna soft bomb like this you should probably come out and say it, you are not going to be a high priority kill for scum probably

[Something_Smart]

Well, I’m not a bomb but I’ll come out with it anyway. I’m a supersaint, so if the town wants to kill me, I’d rather take someone down with me.

That is very good to know for if you survive till F3.

[Something_Smart]

There are potential plans that involve Merlyn getting shot. It also would be pretty sweet if Merlyn was a supersaint so we could set up double supersaints today and tomorrow and not have to worry about vig shots. (That does fail if scum just shoot the other supersaint but that's a shot that isn't landing on you or me.)

The downside is that it does give scum more information about what I might be. However I think bomb WIFOMing isn't that valuable compared to being able to make better plans, since if everyone accepts me and Sky as town, scum can always just kill Sky anyway if they're worried about me being a bomb.

So I agree that it's probably a positive for Merlyn to claim. I am kinda liking the idea of limming T3 today and directing both vigs onto Merlyn, with the hope that we end up in an F3 with Alianna. But obviously if Merlyn is a bomb that won't work.

[Something_Smart]

If everyone's willing to bet the game on me/Sky being town I think we should be in a very good place (assuming Sky is in fact town, of course ).

But I'll wait for Merlyn's claim to touch more on specific plans.

[Something_Smart]

pedit oh

It seemed like where things were heading, I don't want to pressure people to lock me as town if they don't feel comfortable, but if I'm gonna be making mech plans I want to know what assumptions I should be using.

[Something_Smart]

Well then.

[Something_Smart]

So I think we can just have T3 hammer one of the supersaints and have the vigis holster. Then Drew can hammer the other supersaint tomorrow.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, he may just be waiting out the prod timer.

Just so there's no chance of plausible deniability:

T3: you need to hammer Merlyn at your next available opportunity, that is the plan we have all agreed on. If you don't, we will lim you, and if you're town that outcome will be much worse for town and could cost us the game.

[Something_Smart]

It's proper for T3 to not claim as scum here. You shouldn't out yourself like that if there's any world, however remote, where you can still win.

[Something_Smart]

gg, this was a pretty rough setup for scum, and nice job to all the vigis.

[Something_Smart]

i personally think we should have been saved there and vig shots dont stack

Traditionally doctor only protects from one kill. I could see it maybe being played differently in this setup, but the doc ability is still really powerful for scum. It took a pretty concerted effort for town to bypass it, I don't think that would happen in most games.