Micro 1063: Even-Odd Killers | Game Over

[MegAzumarill]

didnt roll sk
whats even the point
VOTE: 39 Rats

[MegAzumarill]

Nah imagine I rolled SK
I can't even

[MegAzumarill]

Nah imagine I rolled SK
I can't even

Tbh I never really got the appeal of sk. It's just scum, just without friends. Sad life.

It's freeing in a way, noone expects you to win so losing doesn't feel as harsh. Even more so your team is just you, so you're free to play however you'd like to get your win without holding back your team by playing riskily.

Also an inevitable win feels so much more cathartic since it was explicitly and only you against the world yet you overcame it.

[MegAzumarill]

I'm sorry what is this

[MegAzumarill]

DAYVIG: Marashu

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE: imaginality

VOTE: Testarossa

This real?

Not really that confident about it but it's better than nothing.

I mean nothing is what you're giving here to justify if it is serious in any capacity.

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: ceejayvinoya
In a good turn of events I don't think 39 Rats

[MegAzumarill]

The man of the hour has arived

[MegAzumarill]

I kind of like ceejay's 49. At least the first genuine town pings I got this game. The Enchant vote supports it, although Enchant is rather pretty null to me, but I felt about it kind of similar.

This is true but it's an easy take.

Why is it easy?

[MegAzumarill]

Not really much.

Unrelated but I do like Galron for town here
Think 79-81 leans more into town than scum

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE: imaginality

VOTE: Testarossa

This real?

Not really that confident about it but it's better than nothing.

I mean nothing is what you're giving here to justify if it is serious in any capacity.

This pinged me the wrong way but its not much so w/e

[MegAzumarill]

Meg I don’t understand why you are more pinged by 34 where ceejay has a vote that he’s not particularly confident on but you have no concerns with 79 where galron has a confident read that he has yet to explain?

It's not the vote I had the problem with, it was that they were asked if they had a reason and they basically replied yes, but im not saying it

[MegAzumarill]

Ok

[MegAzumarill]

Given they haven't posted since I wouldn't call it a refusal.

[MegAzumarill]

Welcome Kop!

[MegAzumarill]

Meg, what I don't really understand is, that if you are town and you are leaning town on Galron, then basically both "major wagons" (if you can call it like that with 2-3 votes), where the game has been stagnating for a while now have been on town. Yet you are going solely for ceejay who has been off both wagons.

While it is not unlikely that scum stays off major D1 wagons I miss the interaction of you with players from both wagons. Like what do you think of the wagons? All town on town? Who might be scum there?

I'll look over this more in depth here

[MegAzumarill]

I don't really think my wagon was serious in any capacity. I mean scum could really go either way since its a light RVS thing. Galron wayon is a bit different

[MegAzumarill]

Enchant is a bit of a nothing right now. Why are you happy with your galron vote here?

Testarossa is honestly fine here on the wagon. Don't think theres much to day there.

Rats really seems caught up on something and it seems more a communication issue than anything else


I don't see the mafia stepping in here for action either way which prompts me to think they are content to sit off wagon here. If there is mafia on the galron wagon it's probably Enchant, but that feels like a guess at this point

[MegAzumarill]

So yeah I think the wagon is probably town on town with possibly SK in the mix

[MegAzumarill]

"Deadline: 1 day, 14 hours, 39 minutes."
uhhhh
VOTE: Gypyx

I guess I'll consolidate on a wagon that can go through

[MegAzumarill]

ik right

[MegAzumarill]

I will vote galron if need be, I'll check in close to DL

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Galron
Only thing that will go through today regretably

[MegAzumarill]

Nice

[MegAzumarill]

Galron flipped mafia

[MegAzumarill]

Do we think Sk aimed at Goon or cop?

[MegAzumarill]

Do we think Sk aimed at Goon or cop?

Depends entirely on which immunity they chose, which we have no way of knowing at this point, so... I don't find this line of thinking useful or relevant.

That is the relevancy. And it's something at least the cop should be considering

[MegAzumarill]

I need to do some rereading but can't right now. I'll be back later today with some input

[MegAzumarill]

My usual rule of thumb on a slow wagon with no backlash and D1 scumflip is that it might have been a bus, but I don't really see it here. Enchant just nah, rats remained on Galron despite signalizing they could compromise on Gypyx. Their interactions with Galron don't seem like partners either. ceejay neither, his vote was the nail on Galron's coffin with abandoning Gypyx, he could have just waited for rats compromising.

What do you think about meg being a potential busser? imo the bahavior fits

-> tried to help the wagon on me get though the end

-> basically never told an opinion on the galron wagon, even though he showed some fairly big interest towards it

stuff like that

Meg I don’t understand why you are more pinged by 34 where ceejay has a vote that he’s not particularly confident on but you have no concerns with 79 where galron has a confident read that he has yet to explain?

It's not the vote I had the problem with, it was that they were asked if they had a reason and they basically replied yes, but im not saying it

i'm also actually wondering why Enchant is given a pass by so many peoples

Fair take btw

[MegAzumarill]

I was more referring to the part about me
I don't think someone given a pass is neccessarily AI

[MegAzumarill]

I mean I was genuinely playing to avoid a Galron lim and the only difference there between scum! and town me there is probably motivation

[MegAzumarill]

I'm inclined to vote Kop here because I don't feel the push on me from them is in good faith (as compared to say Gypyx that gives off a different context)

[MegAzumarill]

Won't bring it to E-1 yet though

[MegAzumarill]

I don't think Testarossa is evil here. I feel like there's enough blood in the water now that scum prefer aggressivity here, especially SK.

[MegAzumarill]

not hammering and not taking a stance are very different things

[MegAzumarill]

That's not very convincing

[MegAzumarill]

Intent

I want a claim at least

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Kop

See ya tomorrow I suppose

[MegAzumarill]

Perhaps I can hammer two scum in a row

[MegAzumarill]

Interesting

[MegAzumarill]

So it's theoretically POSSIBLE Mafia just wanted to postpone MeLo for some reason...

But far more likely is that Mafia now knows who the SK is... and the Cop now knows their results can be trusted.

Since it wasn't Kop as Galron's partner, the only solve that makes sense to me right now is Meg Mafia and Gypyx SK.

This makes me need to reconsider you now.

Yesterday I had considered you likely cop with an inno on me because I had found your TR on me to feel forced almost. I had read it as a result but this post means my assumption was incorrect so I must reassess

[MegAzumarill]

Galron (5): Enchant, Testarossa, 39 Rats in a Trench Coat, ceejayvinoya, MegAzumarill <--HAMMER
Gypyx (1): imaginality
imaginality (1): Gypyx
Kop (1): Kop
39 Rats in a Trench Coat (1): Galron

For relevance

[MegAzumarill]

I mean SK cant really afford to kill cop tonight but they still shouldnt claim unless need be

[MegAzumarill]

Pre-Game, the Serial Killer chooses between Investigation Immunity (Shows up as Town to investigation) or

One-Shot

Bulletproof

[MegAzumarill]

Sk loses if mafia get a chance to kill

[MegAzumarill]

Ergo would SK aim at mafia knowing if they dont die they always lose n3? Probably

Additionally in the world where scum no kill and sk is not bp, they still hunt mafia since cop immunity

[MegAzumarill]

Well that works

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: Enchant

[MegAzumarill]

That makes... ceejay last I believe

We can cross that bridge tomorrow though

[MegAzumarill]

UNVOTE:

[MegAzumarill]

Kingmaker kind of boring but I don't think I can stop my mislim here so it's a genuine option.

Worse case senario Enchant is mafia, Gypyx dies, we go to 5 player 3v1v1, lim enchant, go to 2v1 lylo and lose Testarossa as compared to the alternative line of lim enchant gypyx dies 4 player lylo with testarossa alive.

Considering Testarossa is currently incorrect on their read on me I don't see a huge downside since I would suggest a nv in 4pl lylo there anyway

[MegAzumarill]

But also it's like
A very unfair move to make against mafia here who are otherwise positioned to win which doesn't feel good

[MegAzumarill]

But also it's like
Objectively better for my win con fmpov

[MegAzumarill]

I play too many closed setups, sorry.

In that case though... We stay the course.

It is POSSIBLE that Enchant is Mafia and not SK, in which case we end up worse off than if we just eliminate him now and play the game the way it was supposed to be played.

How is it worse?

[MegAzumarill]

Not really

[MegAzumarill]

It's a 1 in three consensus either way

[MegAzumarill]

And it's not like we lose input since testarossa has all the info they are going to get tomorrow either way

[MegAzumarill]

And it's not like we lose input since testarossa has all the info they are going to get tomorrow either way

When it gets to that final decision, I think we'll all benefit from having a conftown alive. Sure there won't be any new information, but it gives us someone we know we can trust and discuss in good faith with.

We won't have that if Enchant is Mafia and we end up in a true Elo instead.

My point is we have Testa alive to talk about that deciscion as much as the alternative.

At worst I see a sidegrade of ELO here so I'm inclined to take a shot at the potential improvement

[MegAzumarill]

And realistically this helps my team as either alignment so take it with a grain of salt.

What are your thoughta on ceejay? Either way its them you or me as last scum

[MegAzumarill]

Gypyx and Testarossa should be the one to make the final call on this as the clears, but EV for town win can't go down on a no lim here

[MegAzumarill]

Regardless of Enchant telling the truth, regardless of Enchant following through with the plan our EV doesn't decrease

[MegAzumarill]

The lim today should be a no lim.
The lim tomorrow is Enchant but we have time to discuss between the remaining people.
The lim the next day (ELO) would be what we discussed on. (One of me/you/ceejay, depending on who is alive/result of the nk/check etc.)

I personally trend toward Ceejay as Galron's partner but I'll reread day 1 about it.

One thing to consider is that tomorrow we'll need to assume both the SK!Enchant world and the Mafia!Enchant world.

[MegAzumarill]

I am withholding a different possibility of how things will transpire but I assure you it's better for me to keep it quiet today and isn't worse than the already factored worst case scenario.

Or maybe I just like feeling mysterious -_()_-

[MegAzumarill]

I'm also happy of dying to a nightkill rather than eating our last mislim

[MegAzumarill]

The lim today should be a no lim.
The lim tomorrow is Enchant but we have time to discuss between the remaining people.
The lim the next day (ELO) would be what we discussed on. (One of me/you/ceejay, depending on who is alive/result of the nk/check etc.)

I personally trend toward Ceejay as Galron's partner but I'll reread day 1 about it.

One thing to consider is that tomorrow we'll need to assume both the SK!Enchant world and the Mafia!Enchant world.

I mean I think me switching my vote from Gypyx to Galron day 1 significantly helped in getting Galron elimmed but okay

I'm close between the two of you but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it

[MegAzumarill]

:/

We wait

[MegAzumarill]

FOS

No Elim

Not voting until Gypyx returns but I think this is best.

[MegAzumarill]

Who do you want dead? You've been handed a pseudo-vigi

[MegAzumarill]

Actually I think I might have hit upon the real solve here. Enchant is Mafia and Meg is SK.

I've been sitting here trying to work out in my head and with Nancy how Meg can possibly think not having conftown alive for endgame is better than having conftown alive, and it actually does make sense from a scum perspective. Supporting this no-lim scheme is a solid way to look town, and since it ends up putting them in a slightly better position than otherwise, they might as well.

So yeah, we just vote Enchant, and if he flips Mafia, go for Meg. If he does flip SK, then well. We play Mafia, like we all signed up to do.

I think the odds of me being limmed are more if Testa is alive. That gives me incentive as either alignment to try ELO without them alive.

You are making a mountain out off a molehill thinking that we lose to mafia!Enchant here and a no vote. We simply don't.

[MegAzumarill]

You are also the only person against the plan, and the only person negatively impacted by it is exactly testarossa or mafia that isn't enchant.

:Hmmm:

[MegAzumarill]

I guess I beg to differ and we leave it at that.

I don't think of it as a gamble.

I think of it as close to an objectively better situation and I'd have cold feet taking a different play that I feel makes my faction more likely to lose.

[MegAzumarill]

Tetra is the person that dies before elo in worse case scenario

[MegAzumarill]

Which is a fair enough reason to Veto

[MegAzumarill]

Because there's a second kill after we kill enchant tomorrow

[MegAzumarill]

Gypyx dies tonight 100% of the time we vote enchant today

[MegAzumarill]

So why that makes the possibility of that happening on the alternative is beyond me

[MegAzumarill]

If Gypyx doesn't get back before deadline Testa should give the shot

[MegAzumarill]

I think I'll err on the side of caution and go with the no-lim.

[MegAzumarill]

VOTE: No elimination

[MegAzumarill]

If I do die tonight I do believe the correct play is to vote Enchant tomorrow -> 39 Rats but we should have a mech-win if I die so w/e

[MegAzumarill]

Gypyx

Isn't this Prod #4?

[MegAzumarill]

If I do die tonight I do believe the correct play is to vote Enchant tomorrow -> 39 Rats but we should have a mech-win if I die so w/e

You obviously can’t die tonight if you’re SK. And your complete lack of skepticism is one of the reasons I think you’re scum > ceejay. If you were town here, you wouldn’t be so quick to go along with this, considering Enchant has a history of fakeclaiming but you aren’t even questioning the possibility that he could be mafia making this up.

Risk-Reward analysis puts me in favor of trusting this because it's high reward for little risk.


Even if Enchant isn't likely to be telling the truth, we don't lose hardly anything and if they are telling the truth we automatically win.

I'll take that gamble every day of the week and twice on sunday

[MegAzumarill]

Well I probably won't check in again before deadline, but I do think the last mafia is probably 39 Rats, who has grown exponentially more frazzled by the proposition of something that leads to their loss as mafia when otherwise they have a likely win.

[MegAzumarill]

I don't think this changes on a Gypyx kill here anyway, so at least there's that bit of information going for us.

Gypyx kill tonight into an SK flip of Enchant reasonably clears me as Mafia in comparison so there is that as well. Unless I'm just ultra-stoic in the face of a preventable nightkill threat. (That'll be up to you all to decide if it comes to it.) Though I find that unlikely.

Of course none of this at all is applicable on a Mafia!Enchant Flip.

[MegAzumarill]

Jury is out on whether SK!39 Rats does this to Mafia!Enchant

[MegAzumarill]

Like i said you can try to hunt mafia instead of no-lim/killing me, if you want, which doesn't hurt you actually.

I think we very clearly have been doing that. There’s only two possibilities for other scum and we think Mega > ceejay but it’s of course possible he could be scum lurking out but I think Mega’s more likely based off of play.

I actually don’t see why it’s in the other scum’s wincon to eliminate/kill you when you still get to vote.

I think if you aren’t actually fucking with us and are SK, then it’s in mafia’s interest to keep you alive.

Do you think in a SK!Enchant Maf!Meg world I have the stance I do?

[MegAzumarill]

Considering I'm the given kill target as well?

[MegAzumarill]

I personally don't think I would. Especially considering what I would owe to my partner to continue playing.

You really have to push that angle in 2 days assuming town doesn't autowin tonight if you are mafia.

So how to you justify my behavior in that situation? Just high level WIFOM?

[MegAzumarill]

I mean is 0> 0?

In theory there's a logical line to it to pull off the win but the problem is that town has no actual commitment to it at that point and can just go back to normal whenever.

It's never happening so I don't find it relevant

[MegAzumarill]

Mafia can't do shit to save me, nor they care.

If mafia actually cared about keeping me alive, they would CC Gypix claim and go for HONORABLE FIGHT with me in kingmaker.

Assuming you’re not actually lying here, why would mafia do that? Mafia fake CCs cop, Gypyx gets miselimmed and mafia outs themselves, then gets limmed next day.

I think the logic is entering 1v1v1 kingmaker because Gypyx lim-> townie killed both scum outed.

Which doesn't really make sense but -_()_-