Micro 1058: Is This Thing Loaded? -- Game Over!

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: kutiplz

welcome! how did it feel drawing a mafia role PM?

[GuiltyLion]

So who knows each other from the playerlist and what's yall experience levels and what not.

Links to old games as both alignments would be appreciated. I can do the same as well.

I've played a handful of times with Dunnstral, Galron, Bambi Jay, and yes Alexcellent is right we played one game of One Night Ultimate Werewolf several years ago. I've played one game with Frogster as well.

This is maybe an odd question but can you explain why you said you

can

provide links to past town/scum games instead of just doing it?

here is my most recent scumgame - viewtopic.php?f=52&t=87412
here is another one - viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971

here are my two most recent town games:
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=89546
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=89120

also for fun I played a game with this same setup almost 7 years ago - viewtopic.php?f=84&t=64595

let me know if/when you take a look at games people share and what you learn from them, to be frank I am skeptical that you actually intend to take the time to look through everyone's games

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Okay on a skim by the way I scum read Dunnstral.

why did you call it a skim when there's only 35 posts at this point? what makes you SR Dunn

[GuiltyLion]

Not sure that's enough justification to place a vote tbh.


It appears we're out or RVS by now, so...

UNVOTE:

I'm not sure if this is AI or just playstyle friction but I strongly, strongly dislike this unvote, and the motivation in it as well as the comment preceding. Voting is always better than not voting. While reasoning for scumreads is obviously good, I don't like the implication here that you need to meet a certain standard of evidence/justification for a vote. Game is in a low info state and the best way to create info is to vote, create wagons, force people into taking stances. Sitting around not voting anyone and dismissing potentially good leads keeps the game in a low-info state. And what do you think the point of RVS is if you're just going to unvote once "we're out" of it and go nowhere with it afterwards?

I see in 75 you don't seem to be scumreading Dunnstral, so what is the point of your comment on his vote? Why are you dismissing an attempt to pressure another player? If you aren't suspicious of Dunn's motivations then commenting like this on his vote feels to me like you're more interested in sounding reasonable or fair than you are in finding and pressuring scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I think Alexcellent and Galron are town

I am going to wait for Frog to respond to Dunn before I fully weigh in on that case, but I will say I think Dunn's point about Frog's focus being more narrow in his scum games than the town games is the more compelling argument to me.

however I want to
VOTE: Ph0enix

very much giving me vibes/profiile of scum trying to get their foothold in the game by asking basic questions and making safe/non-controversial comments, while not actually taking any

real

initiative to pursue reads or sort players. 65 is another example in addition to what I said about 60, a non-comment comment, "I don't like meta but I agree with your meta finding", that does not strike me as a comment that comes from a real intention to solve, and it also pushes me away from a Frogster vote currently because it's exactly how I'd expect scum to gently encourage a TvT.

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oh I think kuti is town too

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oh I think kuti is town too

Wait why

you didn't feel defensive to me and I liked the second question in 39

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I see no point leaving a vote that was made in the first post of the game with no reasoning behind it, now that there's enough content generated that votes are no longer without reason. Unvoting does not mean I'm "going nowhere with it".

but, it does mean exactly that though. My view is that your vote should always be on your strongest scumread (or on a wagon you support) - voting nobody accomplishes absolutely nothing. Unvoting and not voting somebody new is basically just signaling "I have no one I believe might be scum right now" which is a completely non-game-advancing position to have

This part I can't get behind. These two statements contradict one another. If I'm the one that's asking basic questions and making comments while not taking initiative to sort players, what's Galron been doing? How is he Town in your eyes based on current information, when his posts so far offer no real substance imo. (I'm not talking about Alex here, cause I think his posts have provided enough thus far given the limited information he's working with, as the rest of us.) It appears my asking questions and making comments is the reason you are SR-ing me while TR-ing Galron, cause that's the main difference between their posts and mine. Which wouldn't make sense - surely asking basic questions is better than nothing.

This is a terrible reply, to compare yourself to Galron in this way. Are you implying that I should be reading you two the same? Why? I have played several games with Galron scum and Galron town, to the point where I have a feel of how he posts as scum and how he posts as town, and his early game so far reminds me of games I've played with him as town.

I disagree that "asking questions" is townie or intrinsically better than doing nothing. Consider that scum's goal and purpose is to

appear town

, and the fundamental crux of the vibe I dislike from you is that you are

trying to appear

town and useful. I'm not scumreading you for lack of doing anything, I'm scumreading you for a lack of actual purpose behind your posts that would help you sort players.

that he's trying to make something out of nothing and start a wagon on me

do you think this is something that town!GL does not do?

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I typically follow with this playstyle of voting someone > not voting someone. But I think it's hard to SR an early unvote because I've seen so many cases of people just not having the same playstyle as me. Like maybe it is passive of Phoenix but I don't think it's necessarily scummy. I've played some games (recently too) with town players who just nurse their vote forever, which I don't agree with but eh.

to be frank, even if he's town and playing passive, it's anti-town behavior that creates an easier environment for scum and so it should be scrutinized regardless. if he's town I trust myself to sort that out over time

why do you think his interactions with your or his post 98 is townie? That post kinda reeks of defensive scum to me. His reflexive scumread back on me feels more like it's meant to discredit my argument than a real belief that I'm scum - I don't buy that he genuinely thinks I am more likely/only going to "scumread" him if I were scum

Yeahhhh I dislike this though. I think this rubs me the wrong way because it's a scum read that I don't really agree with framed with town reads that I also don't agree with or at least understand. Maybe I'm paranoid of being pocketed but idk, I kind of got minor town vibes from Phoenix's interactions so this comes off as either a very weak scumread or a disingenuous one.

just cause you don't understand or agree with my townreads doesn't mean they aren't genuine. Don't get me wrong, I get why people won't immediately follow why I townread those players, but I don't really feel a need atm to dive deep on why I have them or convince people until someone steps up to actively disagree and scumreads those players. I feel you on kuti being fluffy and it's not a bad point that they should have expressed more of an opinion on some of the actual #content, but my vibe is they're excited to play and they have nothing to hide

[GuiltyLion]

why do you think his interactions with your or his post 98 is townie? That post kinda reeks of defensive scum to me. His reflexive scumread back on me feels more like it's meant to discredit my argument than a real belief that I'm scum - I don't buy that he genuinely thinks I am more likely/only going to "scumread" him if I were scum

oh and also the "why me?" and how he brings Galron into the mix. Like he makes assumptions about why I'm townreading Galron and explicitly says Galron offers no information to him - implying Galron should not be TR and/or I should also be scumreading Galron if I'm scumreading him? - but then ultimately arrives at a Galron TR by the end of the post, which would make his earlier point obsolete.

And I get that Galron hadn't posted 92 when I expressed my TR, but still a "why aren't you also finding this player scummy, who I am townreading btw" thought process feels manufactured to me.

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Hard, hard disagree on that one. I don't understand why everyone is jumping to conclusions that it doesn't feel fakeable. As I said in a previous post, I get that Town players will naturally be more willing to push the conservation forward and so doing all this digging may be a slight TR, hence why I put Dunn as a possible slight TR in said post. However, to think that it's strongly Town indicative, let alone not fakeable, I can't get behind. Why would it not be fakeable? Why would Scum not spend some time digging if it apparently means a safe TR from some of the other players?

or like, what's the point of this? "I TR Dunn for it, but let's not

hard

TR him for it"??

Phoenix, I'll give you a genuine reach out here in case I am wrong so far, it's this kinda thing that makes me scumread you. alignments aren't a spectrum they're a binary, so while I can understand varying degrees of confidence in reads I don't vibe with expressing them in this super non-committal tentative form. End of the day, either Dunn's town or he's not, and if you think town!Dunn is more likely, there's no point to dinging him when other people also think he's town. It comes across as trying to break up a town bloc and trying to make him generally less townread by everybody.

And if you

don't

think town!Dunn is more likely, then you wouldn't be saying he's a "possible slight TR", cause he's not.

ultimately I just don't even understand what's the value of a "possible slight TR", like if your point here is "don't bet the game on town Dunn", I don't think anyone is really doing that and I don't immediately understand what your goal is in posting that.

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oh I think kuti is town too

Wait why

you didn't feel defensive to me and I liked the second question in 39

Feels like a weak reason to tr me and kinda pockety but go off

all I said was I thought you were town, you asked me why and I gave you my reason, if you feel pocketed by that that's on you lol

also I have high standards for my scumgame so I wouldn't expect to be an easy townread for anybody just 5 pages into the game

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although as I say that I realize it's perhaps hypocritical since I'm going around throwing out easy townreads 5 pages into the game

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Do you think town Galron is likely to sheep your vote on Phoenix?

I don't think sheeping me there is particularly AI

the posts I thought were indicative from him were 77 and 79 - my memory of Galron's early game as scum is him being concerned with establishing rapport with players and keeping up appearances of probing/sorting, whereas here admitting that he doesn't feel he has anything useful to say or do feels honest and authentic in a way I think he'd be a bit too scared to post as scum

[GuiltyLion]

hey yall, I'm on a camping trip this weekend so V/LA until tomorrow evening. I've just skimmed since my last post, don't have the availability to sit and digest things, but my gut feeling is ph0enix is maybe kinda townie for the quick unvote? I think if he was scum and initially planning to discredit/attack my scumread on him he'd be worried about backing down so quickly

I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol

[GuiltyLion]

I want to actually sit with his posts though and think through what others have said in response - please no "killing" yet lol

I probably should be annoyed at how D1 ended but this in retrospect is pretty hilarious considering what followed it.

hahaha yes sure would have been nice if we had more info from D1 to use today buuuut some people got those itchy hammer fingers, it is what it is

I re-evaluated over night and I think Ph0enix is town. While I don't really vibe with a lot of his thinking, I do feel the thinking itself is genuine and I don't think he's informed

if no one else counterclaims a vig shot on Sara (or Galron) that makes kuti confirmed town

I think Alexcellent is scum here and I find it townie that Frogster is thinking that as well

I'm on lunch break so I'm not ready yet to formally case it but I think Alexcellent has made a lot of safe non-committal reads and posts, I feel it's scummy how he treated the Ph0enix vs GL thing as "probably TvT but I have qualms with things GL is saying", and Bambi made a good point that Alexcellent should have known better than to push him for an OMGUS vote

[GuiltyLion]

Alex why do you think I'm town? I'm a little surprised you don't seem more suspicious of me

I think if we accept kuti/Phoenix as universal townreads then this is obviously a tight gamestate for scum with only two viable miselims remaining, so I like that you're reaffirming your Ph0enix townread in 208, but I'm a lil worried your read on me could be scum trying to avoid pissing me off or fully locking me on you

[GuiltyLion]

I think Galron, Ph0enix, GL and kuti could be town

Wouldn't mind input here. Do we think Sara throws her partner's name in here or is this straight up a list of town people?

Only people alive not in this list are myself and Frog.

It's a weird post and I'm not sure which way to swing on it. But also there's not much to look at in her ISO given she only posted 3 times. She voted Frog at start of day, unvoted, and then there's the above post. That's pretty much it.

my thoughts on this

I am considering it more likely an all town list, mainly because of how she says "could be" town, it reads like she's being careful not to accidentally sound informed by being correct about all of us. Specifically I think if her partner was on the list she'd be less likely to couch it in that such tentative language and more likely to just assert that she believes they are town, she already has a "think" qualifying the whole post

also if kuti is un-CC'd it really only leaves Ph0enix for me as the possible partner here

(I mentioned this vaguely in my last post but just to be explicit, if anyone vigged Galron they need to claim. cause in that world it's possible Sara died on a bomb and kuti gambited. but if no one shot Galron then kuti is mechanically conf)

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Unless you think Alex didnt have any great alternatives.

Given your vote and this post I'm assuming you think Alex had an alternative. Who would that be?

I'm blanking a little bit.

is this supposed to be a blank vig crumb/soft?

I'm not really seeing why it would be pro-town to crumb that

[GuiltyLion]

last post for now - I think my reason for TRing Frogster was bad and I sorta get townie vibes from the latest Alex posts, which means I need to reread tomorrow and start playing for real

[GuiltyLion]

bleghlfjlfk I'm rereading and almost nothing is standing out to me as

especially

strong town or scum in either direction, but here's where I'm at

Ph0enix, I think the main source of my TR there is I really don't think he played with an agenda D1. Doing an OMGUS on me (yes I know he gave reasons beyond 'OMGUS' but effectively it was an OMGUS) and then immediately backing down the next day after I double down is not something I see from scum very often. I think mafia are generally too concerned with appearances to pick a fight with someone scumreading them and then immediately retreat afterwards, if they think fighting is the best option then they commit to it for longer than that. 163 also just strikes me as a townie post and vote, especially how he asks kuti for whether there's more of a case/reason for their vote. I think scum who knows they're voting a miselimination is going to either slow play it and be 'lead' onto the wagon by someone like kuti/Alexcellent, or do a bit more playing up their own read & reasons so that their vote appears justified. Ph0enix kinda does neither approach, instead he adds to the wagon but while not expressing any real confidence in it, to me that feels uninformed and agendaless.

from just tone/vibes I like Alexcellent's ISO, I think he asks some useful questions that generally feel solvey (56, 81, 105), but it's not really anything that's wildly hard to fake as scum so I don't feel like it's strong enough reason to actually decisively townread him. It stands out that he asks Sara questions in two different posts 69 and 141 but I don't feel it's AI - I can see a straightforward explanation as either town (trying to sort a no-content player) or scum (trying to establish rapport with newbie teammate and help her get a foothold into the game), although if anything I'd say it's sliiiightly town indicative that she doesn't respond to his 69 as I feel if they had a scum PT he'd be encouraging her to respond there. Overall I guess I feel this is not who I want to eliminate today but I don't feel so good about it as to bet the game on him being town, as I think any scum worth their salt could produce this ISO. and I can definitely talk myself into scumreading him because there are certainly moments of waffle/fence-sitting as Frogster also pointed out, but within the overall context of the ISO and the game I think it's slightly uncharitable to imply that's all he's done, he was pretty forward with his Bambi vote/reasoning and his D2 evaluation of me as well as 208 don't feel like fence sitting either.

Frogster, I get where he's coming from on Alexcellent and if I knew that he was certainly town then I'd agree Alex is the right vote, but there's also just not really anything in his ISO that points me to town. Dunn's meta point about his early game is still good, Frogster didn't really ever address it in a satisfying way, and I also don't feel like Frog has ever tried to meaningfully engage with or sort me, I feel town in his shoes should have some doubts about my alignment in case his read on Alexcellent is wrong but he's not really doing anything to resolve or explore those. I also kinda feel like 226 should have come first rather than having to be pulled out of him (via 218 and 221). It's not a super damning point but generally I think town who wants to sell us on Alexcellent would be more proactive highlighting the posts he didn't like instead of waiting to explain after being questioned about it.

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so after reread I'm willing to vote/eliminate Frogster but I wanna see where Ph0enix's head is at and if kuti wants to eliminate Frog then they should get to choose who hammers (in the event of supersaint)

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UNVOTE: alex 232 is bad enough to make me reconsider.

This is not a useful response, what specifically do you dislike about my post

[GuiltyLion]

I don't think analyzing Galron kill is likely to help much. With a short D1 there's not a ton of insight we can glean from Galrons reads, but even in longer D1 games I don't really think NKA is useful until you have a pattern of several kills to look at. Scum could have killed him for any number of reasons (thought he wasnt miselimmable, thought he had townreads on other players that blocked a path to victory, thought he was definitively not a bomb, thought other players were more likely to be vigged, thought he might be most likely to catch them, etc) and those reasons may vary based on who it is. I think any guesses as to why he was killed would just be guesses and not useful information

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You're jumping to a lot of conclusions and seem biased against reasons to trust me and vote Alex. For example you're greatly overvaluing Dunn's meta case which doesn't use a sufficiently large sample size to support its conclusion. You also made a couple concrete errors in your assessments of this game. For example you said I implied all Alex has done is fence sit and I think you'll have trouble quoting where I actually implied that.

a) what are the reasons to trust you? I reread the game and really didn't find any

b) I agree from like a Logical Completeness perspective, Dunn's meta case doesn't have enough of a sample size, that's why I didn't initially immediately sheep it. However from what was presented, it does look like in your most recent town games you had a more broad focus on the entire playerlist whereas in two recent scumgames you were more tunnel-focused in nature. As someone who was in KTANE, this also matches up with my experience where you were giving several scumreads and readlist on almost the entire PL super early into the game, something you didn't do here. Can you provide any examples of town games where you tunneled a player immediately / didn't focus on a broad perspective? Or scum games where you presented a wide variety of reads? That would refute the case a lot better than simply saying the sample size is too small

c) first off, this feels like a semantic nitpick moreso than something you really think is alignment indicative, but my retort would be that you actually

did

imply that. The thing about implying things is that the implication isn't in the form of you saying "All Alexcellent has done is be cagey" - that would not be an implication, that would be explicit - but rather the implication occurs when you

don't

give any mention to times where he wasn't cagey or non-committal.

here's what you said:

I switched onto Alex instead of GL because

I read Alex's D1 iso and realized it's much worse than I expected.

These posts caught my attention by showing Alex fence-sitting and being noncommittal and cagey. Like wtf is he even stating in any of these posts. These posts are a superficial illusion of sharing thoughts.

here's what I said:

I can definitely talk myself into scumreading him because there are certainly moments of waffle/fence-sitting as Frogster also pointed out, but within the overall context of the ISO and the game I think

it's slightly uncharitable to imply that's all he's done

, he was pretty forward with his Bambi vote/reasoning and his D2 evaluation of me as well as 208 don't feel like fence sitting either.

I didn't say "Frogster said that all Alex has done has fence sit", what I said was "it's uncharitable to imply that's all he's done", which is IMO a fair assessment of the two posts I quoted. You said Alexcellent's ISO was "much worse than expected" and then highlighted fence-sitting, noncommittal posts. In doing so, you omit posts where Alexcellent was

not

fence-sitting, and you also didn't comment on anything in his ISO that could be evidence for town!Alexcellent.

Hence I described your treatment as "uncharitable" because in my mind you did imply that there weren't any reasons to townread him, by not bringing them up at all. Especially since in 220 you're talking about the overall ISO being "much worse" than expected. You didn't present it as "there were a few things I don't like" or something similar, you spoke of the ISO in entirety.

[GuiltyLion]

Because I'm statistically more likely to be telling you the truth.

that argument applies to literally every player in the game, yet somebody has to be scum. Like yes this is true a priori you're probably town in a vacuum, but then when I look for evidence of you being town vs evidence for each other player being town, and find comparatively less for you than for other players, that's meaningful.

[GuiltyLion]

Arghh on second thoughts some of his posts ping me as towny.

UNVOTE:

Let me sleep on this. At the very least I think scum is in Frog/Alex.

hey ceejay, good to see ya again

which posts ping you as townie?

[GuiltyLion]

I still think Frog is scum. I think really the only point against Alexcellent is that he was tentative on D1 and while fence-sitting or tentative play

often

comes from scum it also comes from town a lot. I think it's also a weaker point when compared to Alex's D2, where he's been a lot more decisive. If he's scum and gunning for Frog today he still needs to win a 1v1 vs either me or ceejay and he's not trying to do that at all. I also agree with him that Frogster's flip from briefly suspecting/voting me to then switching back to calling me a confbiased townie feels more tactical than genuine.

VOTE: Frogsterking

like I said earlier, ideally we'd let the second scummiest player hammer in case Frog is a SS, so if you want me to do that or whoever, now's the time to speak up

[GuiltyLion]

spicy

[GuiltyLion]

wait, if I was a live vig, why didn't my shot work on N1? I thought I was a blank cause I shot at Alexcellent and he didn't die?

regardless kuti MVP for the hero vig shots

Alexcellent you played really well, I wouldn't feel bad at all, you did a couple things that tricked me especially on D2 and especially not backing down from Frogster softing Saint. I was sure I was going to get shot last night and die cause I thought you looked townier than I did!

Thanks for modding Pav, this is always a fun set up and the game was really smooth! Hope everyone enjoyed it, I had a great time

[GuiltyLion]

oh wait mafia have a roleblock??? Lmao I had no idea

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wildly fortunate that I decided to submit an action, I almost didn't do it cause I thought it was pointless!