[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/ext/alfredoramos/seometadata/event/listener.php on line 114: Undefined array key 12875054 [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file [ROOT]/ext/alfredoramos/seometadata/event/listener.php on line 114: Trying to access array offset on value of type null Micro 1020: To Tell the Truth [Game over] - Mafiascum.net
I think scum risked trying to get an inno onto dwlee because they knew that vote looked bad and that dwlee would be targeted for it. Agree that clidd is likely the townie they added because otherwise they are giving a guilty away
Post
Post #76 (isolation #2) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 2:00 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
Each player has a base probability of being town at 6/9. If dwlee and clidd are both scum, then we know that dwlee is scum. If 1 of them is scum then we know it must be dwlee because one of the results must be true. So the only scenario to really consider is if they are both town.
If dwlee and clidd are both town then the odds that we get a guilty on dwlee are 1/2 * 3/8 = 3/16. Using bayes theorem, we can say that the probability that dwlee is town given the guilty is equal to the probability of a guilty given dwlee is town (3/16) times the independent probability of dwlee being town (6/9) divided by the independent probability of a guilty on a townie (3/8). Do all the arithmetic and you end up with 1/3.
Yeah you are right, I started with an assumption that they are town so that makes it weird when I calculate the probability they are town...
The actual calculation including all scenarios and T3 town is actually way harder than I thought and you need to make an assumption about the likelihood scum puts in 0, 1, and 2 townies
Post
Post #153 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:06 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 114, Dwlee99 wrote:Infinity I need you to walk me through how this is a guilty if the true result is clidd.
This is disingenuous, we don't know which is true. It is more likely the one on you is true and clidd was the coin flip. Clidd is likely town because of the dynamics of being on the list, not because of the result
Post
Post #163 (isolation #13) » Thu Jul 08, 2021 10:20 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
@dwlee If you were actually townie I'd not be pushing you, you literally put a townie to E-1 before quickhammer and then acted fake surprised right after the hammer. The guilty and your misreps about the math around that guilty are just extra on top.
Post
Post #369 (isolation #22) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:03 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 225, Dwlee99 wrote:The thing that MC is doing is using discussion of the mech to justify his insistence that I'm evil, and I don't think he has seriously entertained the idea of us being TvT like he should if he is town.
I also think that besides talking about me, his play is woefully lacking in any sort of solving. I don't think I'm misremembering when I say that I don't think MURDERCAT has even explained a single read other than insisting I'm scum on mech. He implicitly said that Arc is scum, but that comes across in way more of a "yes she is my scum buddy and I will bus her" way than a town!way. Why is she scum? He never even tries to solve her.
He also nitpicked me saying she was scummy for her posts only to come around on thinking she was scum (again with no reasons).
Again on him lacking reads, he hasn't given an opinion on Pooky besides saying he will probably be the days' elimination. Okay, so what does he think about that? Like he is just going to consolidate on it because it's inevitable? He should be trying to sort Pooky instead of defaulting to "he will be yeeted today" if he is town.
I have given reasons why you are scum besides mech
I have not said Arc is scum and I think the fact you are pushing there makes the slot more likely to be town. This is literally not based in truth whatsoever, literally CTRL-F my iso and find anywhere I said anything like that. You are straight up lying to cast doubt on me while complaining I'm not considering you are town lol
I quoted Infinity's post, both you and pooky are scum and it's clear I think that based on any reasonable (read: town) reading of my iso
Pooky and dwlee are scum, I think you and Infinity are town. I think Datisi is likely town. Arc is probably town based on dwlee, but that read isn't based on play really so I'm not putting much weight into it.
Post
Post #373 (isolation #26) » Fri Jul 09, 2021 4:15 pm
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 348, Dwlee99 wrote:MC was way too casual about how pooky should just default be the day's Lim
Also not true. I said he would be the lim because of the votes he had and that Infinity and I are willing to lim there, but it was clear I thought it should be you instead
Post
Post #464 (isolation #28) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:37 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 378, Dwlee99 wrote:And there is a specific thing I've been expecting you to say or at least suggest here that I 100% town!you would think to say.
Post
Post #467 (isolation #31) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:45 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 462, ArcAngel9 wrote:Actually my MC read went down too.. If not pooky, I can settle with MC for today.
Literally everyone is piling on me for no reason
Why why why are we going to elim me and not the person who hammered a townie on page 2 or the person with the guilty
I've given reasoning for all my reads, how can anyone say I'm not scum hunting
Post
Post #469 (isolation #32) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:55 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 468, Dwlee99 wrote:Let's see if I can lead you to it: What's my scum game normally like?
Obviously you are getting at something about Dogs vs Cats Mafia but I townread you that game and it was multiball so I don't know what you expect from me.
Post
Post #474 (isolation #34) » Sun Jul 11, 2021 2:29 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
You are proving why because I'm getting run up instead of you lol
If there's a guilty on you, you have the confidence to fight through it, whereas Pooky has no chance due to the hammer
Post
Post #951 (isolation #35) » Fri Jul 23, 2021 7:38 am
Postby MURDERCAT »
In post 935, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Like I'm not even fustrated that we "lost", I was just really really curious to see if that line of play would've won and I feel so unsatisfied not knowing the answer :<
I don't think I've ever really been upset with a replace out but I feel similarly. Particularly I feel bad for Pooky who I think was having a scummie level game and definitely had a real chance to win.