Third Thoughts Mafia [SCUM WIN]
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
I think it's optimal to switch in this setup. Rough details below:
So
1/6 chance degenerates to Second Thoughts where not switching is always optimal14/39
2/6 chance 2T, 2M, 1J. We assume J picks anyone. 3/5 of the time, it's optimal for town to switch.
3/6 chance 3T, 1M, 1J. It's optimal to switch 2/5 of the time (as otherwise it's an instant loss.)
1/6 + 3/6 * 3/5 for no switching which is 1/6 + 9/30 or 5/30 + 9/30 ~ 14/30-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
Yes, but remember, 1%+ is always greater than a big fat zero.In post 52, Cook wrote:
scum would never nominate scum as then that always causes a loss for scum. scum lim = town/jester target. jester lim = random. town lim = random.In post 47, Ircher wrote:Basically, we should always lim whoever is nominated by the hammeree.-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
I probably would tbhIn post 79, Bingle wrote:
would you not argue monty halling if you were scum?In post 76, Ircher wrote:Have I rolled scum today?-
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand Idea
-
-
Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
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Ircher He / Him / HisWhat A Grand IdeaHe / Him / His
- What A Grand Idea
- What A Grand Idea
- Posts: 15207
- Joined: November 9, 2015
- Pronoun: He / Him / His
- Location: CST/CDT
pagetopIn post 99, Ircher wrote:thanks for modding. Now I'm interested in what the next one will be...
(Also, don't forget about Speedrunner nominations. They're due June 4.)
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