California Trilogy - Going to San Francisco (Game Over!)

[MichelSableheart]

I confirm that I have received and read my role pm.

Let's play!

[MichelSableheart]

On day 4 of the Dantes in Fresno game, noone was lynched because they failed to have a condorcet winner. I would rather not see that happening this game. The best way to prevent a no lynch seems to be to actually lynch someone before the deadline hits in two weeks, rather then relying on the condorcet. But in case we won't manage to get a normal lynch: does everyone understand the condorcet method used in this game?

Six missing?! That's a lot. I doubt that they'll remain missing forever though, so let's not vote them when they can't react.

Vote: Xtoxm

, {everyone else}, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Anyone got any idea's what missing means?

Missing means that they're not here. It probably means that they can't post.

[MichelSableheart]

Time to test something. I wil be using condorcet voting no more than a week out from here, and encourage everyone else to do the same. I also strongly encourage lynching before the deadline (as Michael Sableheart notes).

There is no 'a' in Michel.

Also, I guess you're testing whether a vote on one of the missing players will register? Guess that is a good idea. Let's see if there is a difference between the way they are treated.

Unvote

Vote:

Xtoxm, {everyone else}, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife,

Sarcastro

}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

I bolded Sarcastro because I am currently voting for Sarcastro to check if votes on him register. I did not put him at the top of my list because there are a large number of players who I would rather lynch then someone who is missing.

MM: The main reason there is for bandwagoning is, AFAIK, to get reactions. How are you going to get reactions from someone who isn't there?

Unvote

Vote:

Machiavellian-Mafia, {everyone else}, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife,

Sarcastro

}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Well of course I can't get reactions from CKD, but I just got a reaction from you didn't I?

True. I still believe you would get more reactions by bandwagoning people who are actually there though.

Now, to test if bolding someone lower on my list will actually place my vote there:

Unvote

Vote:

Machiavellian-Mafia,

Xtoxm

, {everyone else}, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

No Lynch should be at the bottom of your list. Period.

I have to disagree. With a lynch on any player other then me, there is a chance we hit scum. However, I know that if we lynch me, that chance is actually 0. From my perspective, it's better to not lynch anyone then to lynch someone who is confirmed town. My lynch won't give me any more information then a no lynch will, which is why I prefer a no lynch over a lynch of me. I may change my stance on this if it is absolutely the only way to prevent a no lynch though, because my lynch would give the town in general the information that I was pro town. Also, in your list, you give No Lynch equal preference to all players except me and yourself. Bit hypocritical, no?

Rogueben, why are you so quick defending me?

This is very FoS

What is it that MBL did that is FoS worthy? Is there some history between the two of you that I'm missing?

I completely agree with Pooky that the condorcet should not be relied on to provide a lynch. I would like to add to this that I understand the condorcet, and will do the best I can to figure out who is responsible for the result if we end up making our decission with help of the condorcet anyway.

Also, what is a condorcet?

Condorcet is, in this case, a system to determine who will be lynched if the town does not manage to reach a majority by deadline. It uses the preference lists that accompanies players votes. It compares all pairs of players to determine which of the two is the most prefered lynch. If one player beats all other players there, he is the condorcet winner and is lynched.

All this can be found in the rules, and has been thoroughly discussed in the previous CT game. You did read those, didn't you?

I neither like Xtoxm lurkerhunt nor his 'funny scummy remarks' as good ways to start discussion. Furthermore, there are signs that he isn't really paying attention (Not noticing who are lurking by how much when going on a lurkerhunt, for example).

I want to have a condorcet that includes all players as soon as possible. Hopefully, it will make me aware of which players are in the game and force me to look at all of them. I will only place players in groups when there is absolutely no way to distinguish between them. It's still early in the game, so the following list is far from definite, but I'm willing to answer all questions that may arise.

Unvote

Vote: Xtoxm

, Machiavellian-Mafia, SensFan, Faerielord, Rogueben, MrBuddyLee, vollkan, Niv, Gaspar, PookyTheMagicalBear, BBMars, Thesp, NabakovNabakov, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Also, I don't fully understand the Condorcet method...

Then I'll attempt to explain. Each player has made a list of his preference for lynching all players in the game (if you don't include all players, you are assumed to have listed yourself as the very last, and all options you did not mention just before that. For example, if you make a list MichelSableheart, Xtoxm, Machiavellian-Mafia, you actual list is MichelSableheart, Xtoxm, Machiavellian-Mafia, {everyone else, including no lynch, with equal preference}, you.

At deadline, if there is no majority, each player pair is compared. Suppose, for example, that 5 players list SensFan above me, and 8 players list me above SensFan, and the other players have not expressed a preference between the two of us. In that case, I am the more preferred lynch of us two.

When a single option beats all other options, (for example, when I receive the most votes in the comparisons with all the players), that option is the condorcet winner and is chosen. If there is no such option (for example, because I beat SensFan, SensFan beats Xtoxm, and Xtoxm beats me), there is no condorcet winner, and there will be no lynch.

[MichelSableheart]

@MichelSableheart: Why did you have your vote on Xtoxm, unvote him, then revote him in 2 consecutive posts? This slip warrants an FOS: MSH

I unvoted in order to be able to change my list, not to change who my vote was on. Because Mr. Grey gives his votecount in alphabetical rather then voting order, it shouldn't make much of a difference.

[MichelSableheart]

MBL, post #45 was not written by Vollkan. I guess you mean Vollkan #49?

MichaelStablepants

Also, in your list, you give No Lynch equal preference to all players except me and yourself. Bit hypocritical, no?

Way to try and accuse me for not correcting the default of a system I said I didn't understand.

The fact that you don't understand the system is no excuse. The mod has linked to Dantes in Fresno, and in that game he made this post. If you didn't understand the system, you are supposed to find out how it works, rather then saying "I don't understand it, I'm not responsible!".

[MichelSableheart]

If you notice, I had not even generated a list of votes yet, and had even posted that I did not understand the system. To assume that I was purposely choosing not to override the default assumption that I disagreed with, as opposed to not understand how the system worked, is ridiculous. As soon as it was explained to me, I posted my Condercet list, with No Lynch at the very bottom.

I'm not saying you purposely chose not to override the default. But I do believe that the fact that you did not tried to find out how it worked yourself before the game began shows a lack of commitment that could be very dangerous to the town. I want to be sure that, when someone causes a no lynch to occur by creating a tie between two players in the condorcet list, they were fully aware of the consequences of their actions and are therefore likely scum. I do not want those players to be able to use the excuse 'but I didn't understand what I was doing!'. I'm harping on the issue now, so that we won't need to have this discussion after truly bad things have happened.

How have I been scummy? People seem to be making poor excuses to try and get me lycnhed.

There are probably a few scum on my wagon...

Let's see...

• You started the game by incorrectly voting, showing that you likely have not read the rules thoroughly. This makes you a liability to the town, because you can do things without being aware that you're doing them (not voting Gorrad, in this case).
  
• That vote that you didn't make was on one of the missing players. Because the missing players are not here, and therefore can't defend themselves, this vote as a random vote was much less useful then a random vote for a player who is present.
  
• Next, you make a number of 'funny' remarks which are obviously meant as fake slipups. The only thing these accomplish, besides murking the discussion in a game with two week deadlines, is that they give you an excuse when you make an actual slipup: 'I obviously ment that to be a joke.'.
  
• Then, only 36 hours into the game, you start lurkerhunting. This game has enormously strict activety rules, so anyone who does not post often enough will likely get replaced in no time at all. The only lurkerhunting we are likely to do in this game is hunting active lurkers, and that needs much more evidence then a single post during the random voting stage in the first 36 hours of the game.
  
• Besides the fact that your lurkerhunting was completely useless, it was also completely random. You focus solely on one player, while ignoring other players the behaviour of whom was as bad or worse. And you again don't give your reasons why you focus on that single player.
  
• Even though I agree that it is better to reach a normal lynch, your refusal to make use of the condorcet system is still scummy. At deadline, the condorcet system is the only system we have to guarantee a lynch. Your refusal to use it is a refusal to give the town information and a refusal to actually help reach a decission.
  
• Next up, rather then defending yourself from accusations made, or actually trying to start scumhunting, you go all fatalistic, saying you'll be todays lynch without actually trying to do anything to change it.

Basically, you have done absolutely nothing to try to help the town thus far, and have instead made us lose valuable time by discussing topics that are unlikely to catch scum. Quite an accomplishment, seeing that we are only playing a week now.

To adress your question why it is too early for lurkers: Players who don't post enough will be replaced in this game. The only lurking strategy that might work would be posting regulary without posting content. That behaviour would actually be scummy. However, a single post is not enough to state that someone is actually posting regulary without posting content, because a vote without further remarks is to be expected during the early stages of the game.

[MichelSableheart]

Currently, there is no condorcet winner. The list at the bottom of my vote is an updated ranking, but my placement of Niv at the top is an attempt to make sure there will be a condorcet winner as well as risen suspicion.

Please note that the fact that Mr. Grey does not appear in the condorcet list above does not mean he can't be voted for. Gaspar was the only player who had added Mr. Grey to his list, and he unvoted before that condorcet was posted.

---

Xtoxm, take a look at my post #155. In it, I say what I believe is scummy about your posts. I definately don't like the fact that you give no response to it whatsoever, but ask in post #169 what you should defend against. Some of your remarks when you explain your thoughts still left some questions.

Yes

As my memory serves me, this is an affirmatie response to a silly question from Niv.

If my memory serves me, he asked whether you believed people could be lurking 36 hours into the game. Why is that a silly question?

The first bit explains itself...The second paragraph is in response to you. It refer's to the condorcet voting method. I'm sure you'll agree you were quite harsh in your attack there. I was stating my uncertainty of what it is/does, and my intention not to use it. It just seemed like something I should add.

Why exactly is it your intention not to use condorcet?

Annoyance about picking up the majority on the vote count, and acceptance that it looks like i'm gonna be lynched. Added a joke about defeating Gorrad. Wasn't really thinking too much about anything else here. Probably posted too quicky, think I was L-4/3 or something.

Why would you accept that it looks like you're going to be lynched? Why not try to change that?

I would still like answers from Xtoxm, but I'm starting to think his play is poor rather then scummy.

---

I agree that Niv's mentioning of the link between Pooky and Xtoxm for reasons he can't explain is rather scummy. It irks me a bit that it's Pooky who's pushing for that reasoning though: pooky doesn't do much explaining himself.

Where has Thesp's latest good post gone?

Unvote

Vote

Niv,

Xtoxm

, Rogueben, MrBuddyLee, FaerieLord, Thesp, BBMars, SensFan, Machiavellian-Mafia, Gaspar, vollkan, NabakovNabakov, PookyTheMagicalBear, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

It's possible but unlikely that both are scum in the same scumgroup. If both are scum, it's more likely they're in different scumgroups (should those be in the game), though. However, I'm far from sure that either of them is scum. In fact, I believe it is more likely that scum are using them as scapegoats. However, I would need to do quite a bit of rereading to discover who is taking most advantage of their weak positions.

Of the two, Niv is more likely to be scum. Xtoxm gives more of a VI feeling, especially because I don't see the advantage scum Xtoxm would gain by behaving the way he does. My vote is still on Xtoxm in the hope that he'll read my reasons for it and respond to those.

Allthough I am suspicious of Niv, even more suspicious then I am of Xtoxm, the main reason he is at the top of my condorcet is that, if I am correctly, his placement there should break the tie in the condorcet ratings, and give us a clear condorcet winner.

[MichelSableheart]

Gaspar, why doesn't your post contain a reasoning for voting FL? I doubt you'll be able to prevent the lynches of Niv and Xtoxm if you don't present a good alternative.

FaerieLord, MM and Vollkan are likely taking advantage of easy bandwagons if Niv and Xtoxm are both town.

[MichelSableheart]

@vollkan: Niv's placement on my condorcet is in order to guarantee a condorcet winner. As you will have noticed, the condorcet winner in the vote counts has changed from noone to niv after my vote. However, I don't believe he is scum, and it is unlikely that I will vote for him today.

I agree that Xtoxm is likely town being attacked. My vote is mainly still on him because I want a response to my post #155. I want him to stop saying "I didn't do anything scummy!" and start to realize that his play is not helping the town.

Also, Michel, you cite Xtox being careless in your case against him in Post 108. In your experience, how is carelessness a scumtell?

Like most of my points against Xtoxm, it's not a scumtell, but it is anti-town behaviour. A pro-town player who doesn't pay attention will quite often run the risk of unknowingly helping scum. Changing your condorcet in such a way that it guarantees a no lynch would be an example.

A general question to everyone: When you observe a player behaving irrationally, how does that generally affect your interpretation of their alignment?

My initial reaction will be that they are more likely scum. Quite often though, when I start to look at their motivations, I'll find that my gut reaction could very well be wrong. In my overall assessment of the player, irrational behaviour will not play much of a role.

If you knew that your lynch would give more information to the rest of the town (say, proof of your innocence would condemn a scumbag and confirm a protown player), would you still be opposed to it?

That depends on how valuable I perceive myself to be, when compared to the value of the information. As a vanilla townie, I would probably not oppose my lynch in your example, whereas I probably would if I were a cop. Therefore, I can't possibly answer your question for this specific game, as that would reveal information about my role that is better kept secret for now.

[MichelSableheart]

I don't understand Condorcet that well, but is what you are saying equivalent to where people vote someone "to avoid No Lynch". If not, why not?

Not completely. It's the equivalent of voting "to avoid No Lynch

at deadline

". Because condorcet lists have no effect on the game whatsoever before deadline hits, I retain the freedom to pursue any majority lynch I want.

I agree that Xtoxm is likely town being attacked. My vote is mainly still on him because I want a response to my post #155. I want him to stop saying "I didn't do anything scummy!" and start to realize that his play is not helping the town.

And if he doesn't?

As long as my read on him is pro-town, I have little choice but to try to keep him alive unless I have a good reason not to. Lynching a pro-town player is not an option as long as scum is alive. I'll probably keep making remarks when he makes what I believe are mistakes, but besides that, don't expect too much from me.

So, if the point is to lynch people who are likely to be scum (i.e., those people who exhibit the most/strongest scumtells), rather than those who merely exhibit "anti-town behavior," why exactly is Xtox at the top of your list?

I have explained in my previous post why my vote is still on him. His position of my list is mainly a remnant of my gut reaction, combined with the fact that lowering him on my list will make it less likely that we'll reach a condorcet decission, because he is currently, AFAIK, on of the top vote getters on the condorcet. Lowering him will only bring people closer together and make ties more likely to happen.

On another note: time is starting to run out, we only have a couple of days left before the deadline hits. If we want to reach a normal lynch, we better hurry up. In fact, it's time for me to start voting one of the players I'm willing to lynch.

Currently, I'm willing to support the lynches of

• Faerielord, for following the town's general opinion on both Xtoxm and Niv. Especially his reply to the question "do you believe Xtoxm and Niv are scum" struck me as bad. In mafia, you should try to lynch those people you believe are scum, not those that are playing badly, unless there is no other option.
• SensFan, Xtoxm is his top suspicion and receives a vote without ever being discussed; Virtually the only thing he discusses is placing No Lynch before or after oneself in a condorcet list.
• MBL, for posting relatively little content when he is posting regulary. Virtually all he has done this game is posting a list of posts he found scummy, without any explanation why.
• BBMars, for the same reasons as MBL.

Thesp deserves a mention because the reasons for his lack of posting (though he did stay exactly within the requirements of the game) could be faked. But that's more a concern for when his posting doesn't improve at all during the next couple of weeks.

Unvote

Vote:

Niv,

FaerieLord

, Sensfan, MisterBuddyLee, BBMars, Machiavellian-Mafia, Xtoxm, Thesp, Rogueben, Gaspar, vollkan, NabakovNabakov, PookyTheMagicalBear, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Niv,

Short version: The only player I could and can make the sole condorcet winner is you.

Long version: If you fill in the condorcet form given my Mr. Grey, each square in the matrix will represent the result of a single comparison. In order for someone to be the sole condorcet winner, all squares in his column must be blue, and all squares in his row must be red (which always happens simultaneously. If you want to make sure a square is blue, you must make sure that A>B. Similary, if you want to turn a square red, then make A<B. If you change your list to prefer a different player, one of the two will drop by 1, the other will rise by 1. Therefore, if the difference between the two is greater then or equal to 2, a single player can't force the colour of the square to change.

A particular example: In the latest condorcet, all squares in your column are blue, therefore you are the sole condorcet winner. If I want to change that, I have to make sure that all squares of someone else will be blue. The person with the second most blue squares in his column is Xtoxm, who is only beaten by you. However, the standing is 4 votes in favour of lynching Xtoxm, 7 in favour of lynching you. If I would place Xtoxm above you, it would become 5-6, and you would still be the condorcet winner. Similar arguments go for all other players in the game.

Another example: Take a look at the condorcet standings before I made you the sole winner. You had ties with FaerieLord, SensFan and Xtoxm. In all cases, you were below them in my list. By raising you, I could drop the number of players who preferred them, and raise the number of players who preferred you, making you the condorcet winner. I couldn't do this with Xtoxm, even though he only tied with you and beat everyone else: He was already above you in my list, so the only change I could make there was you being preferred above Xtoxm. All other players had at least one comparison where the difference was two or larger, so I couldn't make them the condorcet winner.

[MichelSableheart]

Pooky, if you use a tiered suspicion list anyway, why not use that as your condorcet list also?

BBMars, MBL, Rogueben, vollkan, Xtoxm, why aren't you posting a condorcet list?

I found Rogueben's #236 not convincing enough to be willing to lynch MM. Is there more to that case I'm not aware of?

You obviously skimmed my post looking for any bad points I noted about your scumpartners and tracked them down. Otherwise, you would have wondered what was scummy about post #45.

I tracked down each post to see what it said. That's how I found out that #45 wasn't made by vollkan. However, all other posts mentioned on your suspicious post list were indeed made by whom you said. And without an explanation of why you found said posts scummy, I couldn't do anything with them. If you don't give your opinion, I can neither agree nor disagree with it.

I've made six other valid points aside from that one post, thank you very much. One of which concerns you, Mr. Stablepants, so I'd think you'd take note.

Have you?

People in motion... people in motion...

*barfs out the window*

No game related content.

quick mbl

bus somebody

You first, Gus.

No game related content again.

vote: Rogueben

A random(?) vote could be considered content, but doesn't add much to the discussion.

@Rogueben. That's what I felt too, but no harm done with it up until now, so ok.

Also, since we have gone out of the random vote stage quite quicky,

Unvote

Don't be such a girl. Take that big pink ribbon off your eyes.

No idea what you're trying to say there.

Xtoxm also deserves notice for playing as if lurkers won't get replaced.

Already brought up by MM, vollkan and Niv.

Niv for using the words hell, fnind, please and please in a two sentence paragraph.

vote niv

, Rogueben, faerielord, xtoxm

What has his use of those words to do with his alignement?

(Glork.)

Is there some history between the two of you that I'm missing?

I'll let MBL field this one.

I recently called myself a smarmy prick in another game and Glork didn't pipe up to disagree.

In other news, I will not vote Pooky at any point in this game.

Scummiest posts to date, in order. If any of you actually scroll back to these I will be impressed as hell, otherwise this post is for the internet dustbin.

Xtoxm #28
Xtoxm #44
Faerielord #45
Xtoxm #85
Faerielord #80
Sensfan #94
Rogueben #78
Nabokov #67
Niv #89
Gorrad #27
Xtoxm #26
Xtoxm #93
Volkkan #45 for tl;dr on page 2 what the hell
Faerielord #66 for overreaction to #45
Thesp #57
M-M #60
Gaspar #116

...
Honor roll:
Pooky #195
Primspar #97
Thesp #121

vote: Xtoxm

, Faerielord, Sensfan, Rogueban, Nabokov, NiV, Volkkan, Thesp, M-M, Gaspar, Pooks

Without explanations, the list is virtually useless. Your refusal to vote pooky lacks an explanation too. Best content here: you answering my question to Gaspar.

Holy crap, someone actually did the legwork. Glork++

But Primate is stil scummy. After the whole Mr. Grey fiasco last game, I think maybe we should lynch them separately.

vote: Primate

fake edit: invalidated

post-fake edit: Sensfan, why specifically do you find MichaelStablepants so scummy?

Votes/Unvotes not appearing at the bottom of the post are not counted. Tags removed. - Mod

Again, I don't see what your comments about primspar have to do with anyone's alignement. Your question to Sensfan is asking others for content, not providing content yourself.

I'm intrigued to know whether there is any logic behind MBL's ranking system for scummiest posts.

In general I thought that your list was ordered in a quite strange way. Can you explain how the first three of those posts are the scummiest posts to date? Also what is wrong with #67, #57 and #116?

Also to clarify, does honor roll mean protown (assumption that I made)?

In general, I tossed posts in that list in order of scumminess. I wasn't anal about it.

First three were, in order, a bizarre expression of ambiguity of motive, a fake-sounding expression of ignorance, and an equally fake-sounding reply. I'll check the other three later--headed to lunch.

Honor roll = amusing, I believe. I think Thesp's and Pooks might have carried a little merit as well.

Best post you made, on request of another player.

Dear Mr. NabokovMcNabokov,

Why did you take the time to tell everyone that you didn't like my first attempt at scumhunting this game and then not even list me in your list of possible scum? Looks like posturing to me.

Also, to others: please don't ask us to metagame you early on day one. Unless you are more entertaining to read than Penthouse Forum.

I must admit, your post to NabNab is indeed original content.

M-M,

Nabokovnabokov spent a post negatively addressing my scumhunting style. He then made a list of his votes, and I was not on that list. I subsequently pointed out his error, and he moved me to third on his list. Are you able to get any read off his behavior in that situation? When you view the rest of his posts, does a wider read support the analysis of his narrower behavior?

But this is merely a follow up.

I consider two original points, one of which made on the request of another player, to be not much content for a game that's going on for 1.5 weeks already.

[MichelSableheart]

...even the mysterious POST OF THE FUTURE?

The mysterious post of the future was on the honour roll, not on the suspicious post list. Besides, you had mentioned it already.

Also, harping on the first two posts of the PBPA is hardly fair. They were made during the confirmation stage, before play began. The vote for Rogueben was indeed random, as it was one of the first ten posts of the game. I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt this time around and say that you didn't bother to look at the context of any of the posts you've read, but let this serve as your warning: Misrepresenting posts does not make Glorkspar happy.

With my PBPA, I was trying to make clear that the total amount contributed by MBL was relatively small, as I argued. My mentioning of the posts you are talking about wasn't to say "Look, he didn't post content in these posts!". It was an attempt at "This are all the posts he made, and this is the content in them". Me mentioning the first couple of posts was mainly for completeness, to make sure I wouldn't get accused of "trying to make it appear MBL posted less then he did".

When did these reasons for suspicions materialise. What post set you off and when?

To be honest, I'm not completely sure. I believe the possibility first struck me quite soon after I made post #211, before I made #213. FL's #214, where he mentioned both were playing scummily when he was asked if he believed them to be scum really set my alarm bells ringing. My suspicions were firmly there when I made #225. That's why I asked Gaspar for his opinion on FL: he had voted him, so I wanted to see if he noticed the same thing I had.

Is there some advantage to making one?

The possibility exists that we won't be able to reach a lynch before deadline hits in 3.5 days. In that case, we will rely on condorcet to reach a decission. If you have not posted a condorcet by then, you are effectively saying you don't care if we get a deadline lynch or not, and you don't care who gets lynched. I highly doubt that's how you feel though.

[MichelSableheart]

Or you guys could just man up, ditch condorcet and reach a bloody lynch?

Sure. Who, and why? I would like you to explain your reasons behind your suspicions, to see if I can agree with them. In particular, I would like you to explain your suspicion of MM, because his lynch seems most likely. I'm not going to vote him without convincing reasoning, but if your reasoning is convincing, I'll probably switch.

Seriously guys. Condorcet honestly is so easily manipulated.

Say Niv, currently, you are the condorcet lynch. I believe you are town, but have you at the top of my list to guarantee that there will be a lynch at deadline. I'm not sure about MM, and would rather see him lynched then you. If I place MM above you, MM will beat everyone except me. You are listing me above MM. So if you place MM in your list above me, MM will beat me, and with my vote change, would beat everyone. So you place MM above me, I place MM above you, MM gets condorcet lynched. Deal?

[MichelSableheart]

@MSH: Who would you rather lynch, Niv or MM?

I would rather lynch MM, as my proposal to Niv should make clear. The vote change below makes him the condorcet winner.

Receiving a strike is not something to be happy about, XtoxM. With 2 week deadlines, not posting in 72 hours is not posting in a very long time.

Unvote

Vote

: Machiavellian-Mafia,

FaerieLord

, Sensfan, MisterBuddyLee, BBMars, Niv, Xtoxm, Thesp, Rogueben, Gaspar, vollkan, NabakovNabakov, PookyTheMagicalBear, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

MM's claim is believable to me, but is also a relatively safe fakeclaim. There seems to be something strange about Niv's claim: in a game with a slight musician theme, I would expect that ability to be on an influential musician rather then an actor. His ability (though not his alignement!) is easily verifiable though, so I don't think he should be the lynch today. I still believe MM is a better deadline lynch then Niv, so my list remains unchanged.

RogueBen, what is your opinion on Niv's claim? You only mention MM's, and Niv is second on your list. Also, reasoning for SensFan vote please? Same goes for Xtoxm.

[MichelSableheart]

This post is a bit rushed with deadline looming.

Michel, your meta-ing against Niv's claim surprises me greatly, especially given you read CT:DiF. You KNOW that there were limited two-shot protown roles in that game, and you KNOW that there were claims which related to the "Fresno" side, rather than the "Dantes" side. What makes you balk at Robin Williams/2-shot <Vauge Investigative Role> here?

Two things: first, I believe an actor in a musician game is much more suspicious then, for example, a businesman in a musician game. Because there are many similarities to the theme, yet the role isn't exactly part of the theme, it feels like a plausible scum role to me. Also, wikipedia can't really agree with itself whether Robin Williams is related to San Francisco or not. The list of people associated with San Franciscolists him as a non-native resident, instead of under actors. He is not present in the category people from San Francisco, California. I believe it very possible that he's speaking the truth about rolename and ability, but isn't innocent.

I'm confused by your approach here. Are you suggesting that SensFan deliberately equated himself with No Lynch and feigned ignorance of the system, or that he should know and is somehow more likely to be scum because he doesn't? (Or something else?) (Looks like SensFan notes this as well.)

I was mainly saying that I would not accept the excuse "but I do not understand the system" if he screws up. Because feigning ignorance when things get serious is a much too likely scum tactic.

I agree that Xtoxm is likely town being attacked. My vote is mainly still on him because I want a response to my post #155. I want him to stop saying "I didn't do anything scummy!" and start to realize that his play is not helping the town.

Seems pretty worthless to me, then. Why have a toothless vote on someone?

If I do vote him, it's more likely he'll look back to see why he is being voted. The point has a better chance to come across. And I didn't have much better to do with my vote at the time.

Pick Machiavellian-Mafia or FaerieLord and run with it.

Done. We have a condorcet winner, so no reason to change my vote.

[MichelSableheart]

Apologies for being so late to check in. I was rather busy thursday night and yesterday.

After the lynch CKD and I just sat around and got to share our views on what was going on upstairs. We were still under the same posting requirements as normal even though there were only two of us.

Interesting... Was Gorrad's alignement revealed to you after you had lynched? What do you remember discussing? Any idea what would have happened if the main thread had lynched before deadline?

I think it's likely that you were returned to the main thread because there was room for you. The remark "they are still fourteen in number" seems significant in this respect.

I can't find any relation between Natalie Maines and SCAPE, except for the words scape goat that seem to be used in relation to the Dixie chicks. There is a music label SCAPE, but it seems to be unrelated. Possibly miller, but likely scum.

[MichelSableheart]

Good point about third party roles, Gaspar, but BALCO was easy to Google, SCAPE not so much.

CKD, why didn't you figure out yesterday during your conversation with OGML that only role name and alignement are reveiled on death?

I agree with you that the three seem to mention each other quite a bit, MBL, but I don't really think I can draw conclusions on their alignement relations. They just seem to know each other.

I really dislike how some players wanted to see a normal lynch rather then a lynch through condorcet, yet refused to try to convince others on who should be lynched. Pooky springs to mind, but Xtoxm is guilty of the same. If you want there to be a normal lynch, try to get one, rather then complaining that others are relying on condorcet.

BBMars is feeling terribly scummy right now. The only vote they made was essentially random, the promised condorcet never arrived, the only player they commented on was Xtoxm. They posted the bare minimum to not receive strikes. I believe they're trying to stay out of the picture on purpose, actively lurking in other words.

It seems MBL is participating more then I originally thought. Dropping him slightly.

I believe Niv's ability claim, but am still rather unsure of his alignement. His ability fits as a minor scum powerrole, his rolename doesn't seem to quite fit the theme. Faerielord's attacks on Niv seem to point against their pairing though.

SensFan's condorcet had nothing to do with actually finding a lynch, and he completely avoided giving an opinion on the important things happening at the end of the day. All he said was that MM and Niv should claim.

I don't understand where the Thesp bandwagon is coming from, even though I don't consider him to be shiningly pro-town. Anyone care to explain?

Unvote

Vote:

BBMars

, Sensfan, Niv, Xtoxm, MrBuddyLee, Thesp, curiouskarmadog, Rogueben, PookyTheMagicalBear, OhGodMyLife, vollkan, NabakovNabakov, Gaspar, {IH, Nibbler Twins, Sarcastro}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Because only a name and alignment was listed…”innocent” could have easily been a role like “townie”. How did you automatically know that “innocent” was an alignment and not a role? Also, what is your point of asking that question?

Did you read Dantes in Fresno? Reveiling worked exactly the same in that game. Furthermore, there is the sample role pm in the first post, and your own role pm (if you're innocent, of course ). If you had discussed Gorrad's behaviour with OGML after Gorrad was lynched yesterday, IMO you would have figured out that it was alignement, not role. What I don't understand is why you immediately assumed a pro-town player was lying about his role, but did not discuss what his motivations for that could be. There's something very strange there.

also, on your list, why am I higher up on the vote than OGML?

Not for definite reasons yet, but OGML gave me better feelings then you did.

Xtoxm, in CT:DiF, the secret words had no relevance besides linking all the various fake Dantes'. I see no reason to assume that's different here, but even if there is, I'm not sure if it's wise to discuss.

[MichelSableheart]

Vote: MichelSableheart

Reasoning? Your only comments on me are made in post #296, and you have completely ignored my response to that.

I find it entirely reasonable for one (if not both) of the three-person "mini-towns" to have zero scum. "The town automatically loses two roles" is very easily balanced by making the non-Attic, non-Basement townies more powerful as part of the setup.

Also, please take into account that we still aren't sure what made CKD and OGML return. Sure, it could be that they lynched Gorrad, but other explanations are also possible. If they returned for other reasons, the statement that the town automatically loses two roles wouldn't be true even if all missing players were town.

[MichelSableheart]

Your response was crap.

I disagree

Your attack on SensFan is still flabbergasting and unintelligible by any stretch of reasonable

My attack on SensFan was explained thus:

SensFan, Xtoxm is his top suspicion and receives a vote without ever being discussed; Virtually the only thing he discusses is placing No Lynch before or after oneself in a condorcet list.

All SensFan effectively discussed was what the very last spot on your condorcet should be. How likely is it that that discussion will have any relevance on the game? The only thing SensFan actually contributed is his support for the claim request of Niv and MM, and a remark that he doesn't see the link between Pooky and Xtoxm. That's not the amount of participation I expect from a pro-town player. I think it's likely he was trying to stay in the background on purpose, hoping to reach the later stages of the game without coming under scrutiny.

What's so impossible to understand there?

and you continued to disavow the usefulness of your vote.

Excuse me? What I said was that, at the time of my Xtoxm vote, I didn't have much better to do with my vote, so I

used

it to draw Xtoxm's attention. However, way back in post #243, 50 posts before your attack on me in #296, I started voting Faerielord in order to get him lynched. That I use my vote for more then only lynching someone definately does not mean I consider my vote useless.

Looking back, I'm also noting that you'd swapped Machiavellian-Mafia over FaerieLord 36 hours before the deadline (you'd had FL above him prior to that). Convenient.

[sarcasm]Wow, wonderful catch. [/sarcasm] Please take a look at the bottom part of my post #266 and at the condorcet rating as posted by Mr. Grey in post #277. I said I would put MM at the top of my list, and I said why I would do that. If instead of placing MM at the top, I would place FaerieLord at the top, MM would still have been the condorcet winner, but it was more likely that other players would cause a draw between FaerieLord and MM, causing a no lynch to occur. If, by placing FaerieLord at the top, I would have made FaerieLord the condorcet winner, I would have done so. However, guaranteeing a condorcet winner is more important for me then having my list be a complete accurate representation of my feelings.

So who are your partners?

I don't know all my partners yet, I'm still trying to figure it out. However, I'm sure that MM and Gorrad were among them.

[MichelSableheart]

The dead guys are the only one's you think are town atm?

Surely you can say more than that...

Read again. I didn't comment on any living players in that particular paragraph, neither about them being town or scum.

Could I comment on which living players I believe are town? Of course. Will I? No. You'll have to settle for the information you can get from my condorcet list. I'll speak up when one of those players I believe are town gets in danger of being lynched.

[MichelSableheart]

Why do you think it is unbeneficial to town to say who you believe to be town?

Because saying who I believe to be town helps the mafia deciding on their nightkill. They can kill a non-mafioso who I believe to be town in certainty that it won't help me finding them.

MBL, your original hinting was completely incomprehendable. Even when I realized you were hinting at the possibility of a player having chosen who would be missing, I kept thinking: "Huh? if it is likely that a player put three townies in that situation, doesn't that make OGML more likely to be town, rather then more likely to be scum?"

[MichelSableheart]

I find it highly unlikely that the mod would put three townies in such a situation. That, combined with his play today, makes him significantly scrutable.

MBL, the quoted section strongly implies that you believe OGML is more suspicious because it is unlikely that all three players in the basement are townies. However, the explanation you recently gave strongly implies that all three players in the basement are of the same alignement, because a different player, presumably scum, chose who would end up (or more accurately down) there. This seems to be a direct contradiction to me. I agree with you though that OGML has hardly contributed, though BBMars and SensFan/LML seem to be more guilty of that.

OGML, are we allowed to know why exactly you so strongly believe ckd to be town?

ckd, what is your opinion on OGML?

[MichelSableheart]

I made it very clear that my setup speculation was entirely intended to point out that a PLAYER, not the mod, probably chose the players to put in the basement. There is nothing extremely dangerous or craplogicky about that. Your insinuation that I'm trying to set up any kind of double lynch on CKD is a LIE. Utter fabrication. YOU ARE SCUM.

If your main intention was to hint that a player decided who would end up in the basement, it wouldn't have been a reason for suspicion of OGML. However, the way you formulated your post, it was a strong reason for suspicion, whereas the possibility of a player choosing who ends up in the basement was deeply hidden in the wording of your post. Basically, I don't believe you when you say your setup speculation was entirely intended to point out that a player chose who to put in the basement.

I also believe it's not a good idea to lynch OGML today. It's extremely improbable that he and CKD are scum together, and both seem quite convinced the other is town.

Unvote

Vote: BBMars

, LoudmouthLee, MrBuddyLee, {people}, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog, {missing people}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

@Michel. Do you find the current case against OGML that lacking that you think he is less likely to be scum than almost everyone else alive?

The case isn't lacking. However, I find it extremely telling that two players who were in the basement together yesterday, both place each other at the bottom of their condorcet lists. I highly doubt they are scum together, so I believe they have other reasons for that. Did they become masons when they lynched Gorrad? Did one of them say something in the basement that confirmed him in eyes of the other? I don't want to lynch two players with such strong connections when it's extremely likely at least one of them is town.

CKD, how does your vote or condorcet help with reaching the correct lynch today? Look at the vote count, look at the condorcet. Why aren't you trying to reach an achievable lynch today?

Complete and utter protection for OGML and/or CKD based entirely on their second-hand accounts of play we never saw.

Based mainly on their opinions of each other, when I can't envision them as scum together, actually.

BBMars is feeling terribly scummy right now. The only vote they made was essentially random, the promised condorcet never arrived, the only player they commented on was Xtoxm. They posted the bare minimum to not receive strikes. I believe they're trying to stay out of the picture on purpose, actively lurking in other words.

This from the player who railed against lurker hunting D1:

Then, only 36 hours into the game, you start lurkerhunting. This game has enormously strict activety rules, so anyone who does not post often enough will likely get replaced in no time at all. The only lurkerhunting we are likely to do in this game is hunting active lurkers, and that needs much more evidence then a single post during the random voting stage in the first 36 hours of the game.

I agree that we have to poke at active lurkers. I think there's a lot more to work with at present...

Am I allowed to point out that BBMars has not received a single strike yet, but hasn't posted any game related post day 2? BBMars is, IMO, the perfect example of an active lurker: someone who posts the bare minimum not to be replaced, yet does not post any content whatsoever. With his play, he isn't going to be replaced by a more active player, and I don't want to allow him to reach the middle game without saying anything whatsoever.

And also, you made it seem like you wanted Faerielord dead but you in reality fomented Machiavellian-Mafia's mislynch. The strikes they are adding up against you, sir.

Can you explain to me how I could possibly have reached a FaerieLord condorcet lynch? Don't blame me for not achieving the impossible.

Unfortunately, a normal lynch of BBMars seems to have become impossible. OGML is someone I definately don't want to lynch ATM, but I could get behind a lynch of MBL. My day 1 read of him wasn't that positive, his claim that his setup speculation was entirely intended to point out that a player chose who would end up in the basement is utter rubbish, and his extreme focus on OGML, though justifiable, is a move scum are very likely to make, IMO.

Unvote

Vote:

BBMars, LoudmouthLee,

MrBuddyLee,

{people}, OhGodMyLife, curiouskarmadog, {missing people}, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

You posted 36 hours before the deadline (posting twice in the days afterwards), putting M-M above FaerieLord, making it more difficult for anyone but M-M to be lynched. To suggest you could have done nothing to push FaerieLord towards the lynch is disingenuous at best, and an outright falsehood at worst.

Am I the only one who sees this?

Putting Faerielord above MM would still have made MM the condorcet winner, but would have increased the risk of other people changing their votes to cause a tie between FaerieLord and MM. I rather saw that I could break such a tie in the direction of a FaerieLord lynch then an MM lynch: if by switching them around, I could have ensure FaerieLord becoming the condorcet winner at any point during the game, I would have done so.

I would also like you to add Pooky to the list of active lurkers. he as done nothing useful at all this game. although I totally agree with you an BB, who is probally going to be todays lynch.

Pooky has given much, much more content then BBM.

It seems I was wrong about OGML - CKD. I really expected that, after they had lynched Gorrad, they had become masons, which would explain their defense of each other. However, with OGML claiming no power, that theory was obviously wrong.

So, with the previous singer without a connection to San Francisco revealing non-town, I'm happy with an

Unvote

Vote: OGML

[MichelSableheart]

Why did you want to attack MBL for his attack on OGML, then your very next post you vote the person MBL was attacking? What made you think that OGML were masons in any form? You want us to believe that you vote had to be changed because OGML didn’t claim mason?

Let's get one thing straight first. I did not attack MBL for his attack on OGML. That attack was, IMO, correct. I attacked MBL among others because he was extremely and solely focussed on OGML.

What mainly made me believe the pair of you were masons was OGML's certainty that you were town when he did not give any good reasons for it. And when I asked you for your opinions on OGML, you gave a comparable answer: you thought he was town for reasons that weren't very solid, but that made you place him at the bottom of your condorcet.

I believed that, in the basement, the two of you had found very solid reasons to believe each other to be town. When he claimed vanilla, however, there could no longer be any role related reason for your believe in him, which wasn't expressed strongly to begin with. The reasonable arguments against him and the fact that the previous non-SF related singer reveiled scum gave me no solid reasons anymore to believe him pro-town.

[MichelSableheart]

See, I think you're hiding behind Condorcet as a way of defending your FaerieLord protection. You were online several times afterwards, and would have had time to switch it back if people begun to force a no-lynch. This whole line of argument is way too fishy.

Suppose that I put FaerieLord on the top of my condorcet, and switched to MM when there was a condorcet standing that would result in a no lynch. Now, right before FaerieLord becomes the condorcet winner, exactly an equal amount of people would prefer a FaerieLord lynch to a MM lynch. This would mean no condorcet winner, a standing that would result in no lynch, so right before FaerieLord becomes the condorcet winner, I would have to switch to MM to break a tie, to revote FaerieLord once one more person votes FaerieLord. THAT would have been completely ridiculous.

When I vote MM immediately, I start voting FaerieLord at exactly the same moment I would revote FaerieLord in the other scenario. However, I have to switch votes to break a tie only once, greatly reducing the risk that I am unable to do so and thereby reducing the risk of a no lynch.

How on earth would OGML's fakeclaim of a singer make him look MORE like scum? Faerielord seemed perfectly happy to claim when asked, implying scum have a method of obtaining fakeclaims in this game, as we did in the last game.

In the previous game, the scum roles were related to the theme. In this game, I expect things to be rougly the same. However, I also expect that non-town roles will be more difficult to recognize from their role name. With the knowledge I currently have, FaerieLord could relatively safely claim to be Natalie Maines, Vanilla. I expected one or two scum to pull such a trick. So when OGML claimed a role that, like Natalie Maines, was a musician without a connection to San Francisco, I expected him to be, like Natalie Maines, non-town.

Also, your masons theory is odd, considering it means two townies would have been rewarded for lynching a townie by being granted masonship. Can you please elaborate upon your evaluation of that basement situation?

If the mod placed three townies in the basement with the requirement to lynch one of them if they want to return to the main group, Town will lose a player for sure. One possible way of compensating for this would be to guarantee the innocence of the remaining two to each other, with or without the ability to talk at night. Flavourwise, it would be something along the likes of "after spending an entire day and night closely together, you are absolutely sure he has nothing to hide". Considering OGML's and CKD's behaviour towards each other, I believed something along those lines to be the case till OGML claimed vanilla.

In retrospect, your hammer looks a little exuberant.

You're right, I was too enthousiastic there. I should have only expressed my doubts, but not ended the day. At least we did reach a normal lynch this time around

I didn't realize Michel weighed the masons possibility so heavily until his hammer. I thought the protection was notable, but I was more concerned with his irrational trust of them based on what could have easily been comanufactured lies.

Comanufactured lies was absolutely no option for me. It would mean that OGML and CKD would both be scum on the same team, meaning Gorrad was dead from the beginning. How would they both end up in the basement together with Gorrad? Placed there by the mod? Why have Gorrad in the game at all then? Chosen to be there by scum? That would equal scum headstart. Chosen there by a non-scum player? If that player didn't have info, it might as well be random, and the chances of that happening in random choice are extremely small.

[MichelSableheart]

I don't think so. Was same style as last night so if it wasn't scum then they haven't sucessfully killed either night, so I highly doubt that.

It looks like either we don't have a vig/SK in the setup at all, or they are in the other group, that are still stuck...By looks in the attic.

The targets don't really seem to fit scum kills though. I mean... mafia killed the player who people tried to get lynched at the end of day 1? Or the player who was the condorcet winner for almost all of day 2? AFAIK, mafia usually wants to prevent that one of them is lynched, so they usually don't kill the non-mafia players who are most likely to be lynched the next day.

Also, if FL was killed by mafia, he obviously isn't mafia. What do you think of FL being reveiled to be "SCAPE"?

[MichelSableheart]

I'm currently in the process of rereading, in order to reformulate my opinions on all players. I'll have finished that process during the weekend, expect a longer post from me then.

Gaspar, you have come right out the blocks today accusing MBL, I quite strongly think he's town atm, if you have info from that night suggesting he's scum I think you should claim it.

Xtoxm, can you explain why you strongly feel MBL is town? After you voted him early day 1 for lurking, you have only mentioned him in order to say you feel he is pro-town, yet you never gave reasons why. Seems rather strange to me, especially if you use those feelings for asking Gaspar to claim if he is a powerrole, when you feel Gaspar is town.

CKD, do you have any idea of what you have said that made OGML feel you were definately pro-town? Or do you think it were just your actions in the basement?

[MichelSableheart]

He has since stopped lurking, and I thought he brought up a very good and valid case against OGML, and pushed for it very hard. He definately looked pro-town to me there.

So basically, you believe he is pro-town because he pushed very hard for the lynch of a pro-town player? Because calling MBL's case against OGML "very good and valid" seems like a stretch to me.

CKD, do you have any idea of what you have said that made OGML feel you were definately pro-town? Or do you think it were just your actions in the basement?

For Christ sake I think I answered this question at least twice yesterday. And if I recall I didn’t say he was “definitely pro-town”, I think I said there was a possibility he could be scum when asked (vollkan?). But I had a feeling he was town. I felt like he was town yesterday because of his actions in the basement, yes.

You are misunderstanding me. OGML said you were definately pro-town. I asked if you knew why

he

believed

you

were pro-town, not why you believed he was pro-town.

---

I must admit I was not convinced that OGML was scum. However, my perception of him made a huge shift from "almost certainly town" to "quite likely to be scum", based on his claim and the case against him. If that isn't conviction enough, sorry.

[MichelSableheart]

Because calling MBL's case against OGML "very good and valid" seems like a stretch to me.

However, my perception of him made a huge shift from "almost certainly town" to "quite likely to be scum", based on his claim and the case against him.

*raises eyebrow*

Tags removed. Please use bold tags only for voting and unvoting. - Mod

There is a difference between "this case is part of the reason why I believe the person against whom it's build is scum" and "this case is so good that the person making it is almost certainly town". The case against OGML as stated by MBL came down basically to "OGML has done hardly any scumhunting". I agree with that; it's one of the reasons I hammered OGML. However, it's definately not what I would call "a very good case"; It's only a single point. Concluding MBL is likely pro-town because he pushed very hard for an OGML lynch on what is essentially a single point seems madness to me.

Also: MS, you may want to claim as we get closer to the deadline, as you look like the current concordent winner

Don't worry, I will. Even if I survive the lynch, considering the amount of suspicion on me and considering the previous two nightkills, I'm unlikely to survive the night.

If I reread the OGML bandwagon yesterday, I find it extremely worrying how many people follow MBL without any reasons of their own: Gaspar votes OGML without giving reasons, NN agrees with MBL about OGML's scumhunting and votes, Niv quotes a post with his vote, but never explains what he dislikes about it, Pooky mentions a blatant bandwagon jump as his reason, Rogueben is convinced by MBL's post #525 and Xtoxm votes "because BBMars' bandwagon is dead". Now MBL points out a single post from me, and RogueBen and Niv immediately vote on it. I seriously dislike how MBL is leading this town around.

And finally, a quote I found during my reread:

I'm quite a bit less sold on MBL as scum today.

What did MBL do to make you feel better?

---

Also, I have finished my reread. Here are my opinions on some players.

As I said before, MBL is leading this town around way too much. He is by far most responsible for the OGML mislynch. I also still agree with what I said about MBL in posts #533 and #559.

There is a very strong connection between Xtoxm and MBL. Xtoxm starts with a random vote on MBL for lurking when other players haven't even posted, then completely ignores MBL till his post #497. After that, he regulary mentions he believes MBL to be town, giving as reason that MBL's case against OGML was very good (!). If one of them comes up scum, it's extremely likely the other will come up scum too.

I'm also not very happy with Xtoxm's own play. His call for a lynch in post #301 was made when he was the only player who was voting SensFan, and he did not made any attempt whatsoever to help reach a lynch by changing his vote. He follows the Thesp bandwagon on day 2 for lurking, again when other players are more guilty of the crime (also note a minor connection to Gaspar here, expressed again later in post #497). Also, in the beginning of day 2, he makes a lot of small posts with hardly any opinions of his own. Almost all of them are oneliners. When Gaspar points this out, Xtoxm relies on the quantity of posts to show that he is participating (post #496).

RogueBen hasn't got much content. Most of the time, he seems to be following bandwagons.

Thesp has, besides receiving two strikes already, made a rather large number of obligatory posts. He has been focused almost solely on me.

Pooky almost never explains his suspicions. His bandwagon jump to OGML also wasn't the best play there is.

Niv also plays extremely singleminded. He focused on Xtoxm first, then later has been focused almost solely on pooky.

Unvote

Vote:

MisterBuddyLee

, Xtoxm, RogueBen, Thesp, PookyTheMagicalBear, Niv, destructor, curiouskarmadog, NabakovNabakov, Vollkan, Gaspar, {IH, Nibbler Twins, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

MBL, don't consider yourself to be more important then you are. My condorcet is based on my complete reread, not solely on what happened on the OGML bandwagon. Yes, Gaspar following you on your attack against OGML is a minor strike against him. However, he lead the bandwagon on FaerieLord, has been participating well, mostly explained his reasoning, and definately isn't scum with you, considering his attack against you halfway in day 2 and at the beginning of day 3.

[MichelSableheart]

Not true. A large portion of my vote (and MBL's case) was based on the contradictions in the scumhunting OGML eventually came back with.

As far as I can remember, those contradictions were only mentioned by MBL, in a single post. Since you didn't specify which post of MBL you agreed with, I missed that that was the reason. However, a single post of MBL when he was yelling his head of that OGML was scum even before the scumhunting post is not a large part of a case IMO.

What are the others?

Wanting to reach a lynch rather then a condorcet lynch, peer pressure and the belief that non-SF related musicians are antitown.

Also, is it really all that surprising that so many people turned on OGML after he made 520? It was an atrocious post. Go back and read it and tell me what you think.

I wouldn't call that post atrocious, though it isn't perfect either. If OGML at that point in time hadn't been under immense pressure from MBL, I doubt he would have gotten any votes for that post.

The ferocity of MBL's attack is a very good reason for OGML (who knows he is town) to be suspicious of him. His remark about MBL's setup speculation is correct too: if there is a player who chose who to put in the basement, it's likely a player with a bit of info. The most likely player to make that decision is a mafia member, and a mafia member is most likely to place three townies in the basement. If MBL believed his own theory, he would likely have been more careful about attacking OGML, since it would be rather likely that all players in the basement are town.

Nothing wrong with OGML's remark about Xtoxm.

OGML on BBMars is following a bandwagon, not that great.

RogueBen and LML are indeed in direct contradiction, but OGML's explanation of two different possibilities, depending on Xtoxm's alignement is believable. It would have been better if he had remarked it without placing them on his condorcet though.

Nothing wrong with OGML's remarks about Niv or CKD.

[MichelSableheart]

Wtf?

That's how you repay me MS? For defending you? Ohh, thanks!

My goal in this game is to make sure there are no dangers to the town left alive at the end of the game. It isn't helping those people who were kind to me win. Scum do try to buddy up, you know. If I believe you are scum, then the mere fact that you defended me won't make me change my mind.

I think your accused link between me and MBL is completely wrong and flawed btw.

Why? What am I seeing wrong?

Do you seriously think i'm scum?

I think it's quite likely you are scum, yes.

[MichelSableheart]

No surprise there.

[MichelSableheart]

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

[MichelSableheart]

What's wrong with playing singlemindedly if you are 99.45632% sure that you are correct. if you were certain someone was scum, would you not focus on them?

Being singleminded allows a scumplayer to having to comment on his teammates, and on anyone else except the player he focusses on, for that matter. It makes it much more difficult for the town to find connections, and is therefore beneficial for scum to do.

On the other hand, a pro-town player who focusses singlemindedly doesn't pay as much attention to the actions of other players. As a result, other scum players will be unnoticed to him, and be able to influence him heavily when he has to make a late switch to guarantee a lynch. Even if you are certain pooky is scum, you should comment on other players as well.

Well, the only thing I can think of that would break the setup would be three scum on the same team in the same hidden location together. It would allow them to daytalk, and make them lynch immune. Just like lurking, it would bring them to the middle game unharmed, but unlike lurking, they have the perfect excuse for not posting.

What terrible speculation.

MBL asked me to think about what would and wouldn't break the game. I answered with what I believed would break the game. If that is terrible speculation because it's unlikely to happen... Of course it is! I called it gamebreaking for a reason.

[MichelSableheart]

Well that is great that you say that today, but where were comments like this yesterday as you were jumping on the bandwagon? This post is full of ugh.

As I said, I only really noticed it upon reread.

MS, you probably had better start claiming.

Agreed, time to make all info I have available to the town.

One reason I was extra wary of OGML's claim, is that I am a musician with connections to San Francisco. The fact that I am related to both themes has made me more distrustful to those that aren't. Related to this is my remark about Robin Williams being an actor in a musician related theme.

I am Carlos Santana. I have the innocent alignement, and no special abilities I am aware of. Remarkable about the wording there is that even though my pm doesn't mention any abilities I have, it implies that I may have an ability that can be used by day, by only mentioning abilities that can be used at night in the negation. My flavourtext seems to be unrelated to the game. It is a quote by Carlos; if I google my complete flavourtext, the top results are pages with numerous posters, one of which is a drawing of Carlos along with said flavourtext, which can be found here. My secret word is the word night. I have not gone out of my way to use it, or to prevent myself from using it. It did come up naturally several times, to no effect I can determine.

Tag removed. - Mod

[MichelSableheart]

What I meant is that my pm doesn't say I have no abilities whatsoever. It says that I have no abilities that can be used at night. To me this suggests that I may have abilities that can be used during the day (though it doesn't mention these in any way). It's probably false alarm though, because the sample role pm does exactly the same.

[MichelSableheart]

Only thing I don't about MS's claim is that all the dead people other than "innocent san fransiscan" are not (apparantly) related to san fran.

MM and Gorrad aren't dead?

Also: destructor, MrBuddyLee, NabakovNabakov, PookyTheMagicalBear, vollkan, the fact that you have yet to vote/ post a concordent with opnly one day left before sunset really irkes me.

I agree. I should be able to log in just before deadline hits, and I'll adjust my condorcet then to guarantee a lynch if necessary. However, I really don't like being forced to do that if there are people not voting.

[MichelSableheart]

MBL is leading this town around way too much. He is by far most responsible for the OGML mislynch.
vote: MBL

(That coming from the guy who HAMMERED OGML. Are you kidding me? I led YOU into hammering OGML? My bad. WTF!)

Sableheart switched to MBL(town) claiming I'm leading town around and I'm responsible for his own hammer of OGML

I have always taken full responsibility for the hammer. However, the hammer is not always the most responsible for the lynch. It was your attack that started the bandwagon, you were the one who was followed by virtually everyone on there, you were the one who kept pushing it till it reached a lynch. Your attempt to place the blame fully on the hammer here is ridiculous.

What? When I turn up town don't blame you for voting me?

This is what I believe Niv was trying to say:

When MSh turns up town, don't blame me for voting MSh.

What? Your PM says you have no abilities. Why would a townie try to weasel into making it seem like they might have a day ability? Answer: they wouldn't, they'd just claim vanilla.

And yet another attempt at misrepresentation through poor reading. My PM says I have no abilities used at night. My PM doesn't say anything about abilities used during the day. So I have indeed claimed vanilla, but have also explained that my role PM does not exclude the possibility of me having a day ability, however unlikely it may be. Claiming vanilla without further explanation risks information being lost for the town.

Sableheart showed direct protection of Faerielord and got Machiavellian Mafia(town) lynched end of D1

I still obviously disagree with that assessment of the events at the end of day 1, but we already had that discussion.

[MichelSableheart]

Scape indeed seems to be a scumgroup, but I don't think there are any kills that can be attributed to them yet. FaerieLord, Flameaxe and Pooky all got the same description (murdered), so are likely to be made by the same killer. It's possible that the dead of Nibbler Twins can be attributed to them, though.

I personally think it's possible that Niv indeed had a 2 shot role investigation. If he hadn't, he would probably have targetted FaerieLord instead of Pooky N1. 1 place lower on his condorcet doesn't risk exposing a scumbuddy. OTOH, what better use of a fake investigation ability then confirming the fake claim of a partner?

On that note, I think it likely that the entire SCAPE group has been given abilities, but no kill. That would require the group to be larger then usual though. Perhaps all 5 current and former members of the Dixie Chicks? The other possibility I see is that MBL was right about the missing persons all along, and that Sarcastro and IH will turn up dead later too.

-As night fell, I noted with interest that Niv didn't just claim Emily Robison; he fake-claimed Robin Williams. Obviously, there is a "country musician" theme to this scumgroup.

And considering FL's willingness to claim, they've all been given fakeclaims.

I have to agree that Niv's post about MBL makes them unlikely scumpartners. The way FaerieLord and Niv behaved on the Xtoxm wagon day 1 makes him unlikely SCAPE too.

Rereading RogueBen doesn't make him look much better. Sure, he voted FaerieLord day 1... 25 minutes before deadline, when it didn't change the condorcet winner, and mainly because of FL's attack on... NIV. Sure, he voted Niv day 3... when Niv wasn't the topic of discussion. He also appears extremely wishy-washy on Niv. Day 1, he called Niv's attack on Pooky genuine; day 2, it gave him bad vibes.

Vote: RogueBen

[MichelSableheart]

I find the existence of a redirector-type role to be very highly unlikely. The scums obviously did not kill themselves Night One. So, yes. I'd give about 95% that Fae was killed by a nonSCAPE kill.

Does the fact that Niv claimed to be redirected from Pooky to RogueBen has any influence on your belief of the existence of a redirector? You believe Niv targetted RogueBen directly? Or that he lied about his ability as well, and used RogueBen to confirm him?

Sure, he voted FaerieLord day 1... 25 minutes before deadline, when it didn't change the condorcet winner, and mainly because of FL's attack on... NIV.

On day 1 I thought niv was a village idiot and that FL was preying on that, obviously she was just busing a weak scum-buddy.

Sure, he voted Niv day 3... when Niv wasn't the topic of discussion.

I don't understand what the point of this is? Most of what I was talking/thinking about on day 3 was the Pooky-niv argument. I took an even closer look at niv's play in general after ckd's vote for him I thought he was more likely to be scum than you where my vote was.

What I was mainly trying to show was that, even though you voted both FL and Niv, those votes never came when there was a serious risk they would lead to a lynch, making them more likely to be bussing.

Back this up with some quotes why don't you. I don't think I've been wishy-washy with niv actually so I'll be interested to see your 'proof'.

Sure. Just compare

I'm not sure about Niv's play at the moment. His attack on Pooky, which I think is misinformed, still seems to be genuine from him.

to

I'm getting good vibes from Gaspar still. Bad vibes from niv, especially in his sustained attacks against Pooky.

Both are comments on the feelings Niv's attack on Pooky gives you, yet it goes without explanation from genuine to bad vibes.

[MichelSableheart]

The first half of Post 237 and Sable's response in Post 243 are interesting -- somewhat parallel to MBL's interrogation of Nabs. Sable states that most of his points against Xtox aren't indicative of Xtox being scum; they are just examples of anti-town behavior.

Sable incorrectly states that Xtox is atop his list to help ensure a condorcet winner. The vote count at the top of the same page lists Niv as the condorcet winner. For somebody who is big on everybody understanding condorcet, this is somewhat alarming to me, especially with Niv having died as scum. In the first CT game (which I know Sable read), we looked for ways to subtlely manipulate condorcet to get what we wanted. He did explain that the vote was there as a slap on the wrist, but that seems slightly silly when he's allegedly so damned keen on making sure we have a condorcet winner. I'd like to see a thorough explanation of Sable's thought processes throughout this exchange (read over all of Page 10, Sable) before deciding how exactly I feel about this.

First of all, please note that my condorcet list at the time was as follows:

Niv, Xtoxm, Rogueben, MrBuddyLee, FaerieLord, Thesp, BBMars, SensFan, Machiavellian-Mafia, Gaspar, vollkan, NabakovNabakov, PookyTheMagicalBear, {curiouskarmadog, Gorrad, IH, Nibbler Twins, OhGodMyLife, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

At that point in time, Niv was at the top of my condorcet, to guarantee a condorcet winner. Your comment that Xtoxm was at the top of my condorcet at the time even though Niv was condorcet winner is incorrect.

I was

voting

(as in, my vote was on) Xtoxm as a slap on the wrist. My comments in post #243 on Xtoxm's postion on my condorcet were about my reasoning for placing him on the second place. There were two reasons for that.

The first was my gut reaction to Xtoxm's behaviour. On first sight, his posts looked rather scummy. Only when I really thought things through did I start to realize that he was likely town being attacked. That feeling started to form when I posted my list, but wasn't solid enough at the time to warrant placing Xtoxm lower. Because I didn't update my list before post #243, Xtoxm was still in second place as a result of gut reaction.

The second reason for placing Xtoxm second on my list was that it made the condorcet much clearer. Niv beat Xtoxm heavily, and Xtoxm beat everyone but Niv. If I lowered Xtoxm, Niv would still beat him, but the differences between Xtoxm and the other players would become smaller. It made it more likely that Xtoxm would start to tie with other people, being beaten by one or two players who in turn were beaten by other players, creating an extremely large smith set if Niv should ever drop on the condorcet.

Michel: Consider the end of D1, where you voted for Fae but put Mach above on your condorcet lynch. If you had just voted for Fae, somebody else could have jumped to him, tipping the scales in favor of Fae and resulting in an outright scumlynch D1. It's obvious that "ensuring a condorcet lynch on somebody" was your motive, but why are you the one so willing to give in to lynch somebody whom you don't suspect as much? Wouldn't the more protown thing to be "try harder to convince everyone to lynch whom you believe is scummy"?

Before I placed MM on top of my list, MM beat FaerieLord 8 votes to 2. Even if I had just voted FL, it is extremely unlikely he would have become the condorcet winner. Simultaneously, the smith set was MM and Niv. In that situation, guaranteeing a condorcet lynch on someone I did have suspicions on was far more important then trying to get a deadline lynch on the ideal lynch candidate.

Scape indeed seems to be a scumgroup, but I don't think there are any kills that can be attributed to them yet. FaerieLord, Flameaxe and Pooky all got the same description (murdered), so are likely to be made by the same killer. It's possible that the dead of Nibbler Twins can be attributed to them, though.

Shit, this is bad too. Really bad. The amazing thing is, I don't think I've ever seen Gaspar protect a scumpartner this WIFOM blatantly, so I doubt he and Sableheart are aligned. There are enough things to point out at this point that it doesn't make sense for me to wait much longer on what I've spotted, but I'd like others to take a look at Gaspar/Sableheart please before I let my arrows fly.

What is so bad about that quote?

[MichelSableheart]

Michel: In CT:DiF, all nightkills were listed as "Murdered," regardless of source. Also, there is zero evidence to indicate that SCAPE (or anyone else) could have infiltrated wherever {IH, Sarc, NibblerTwins} were hiding, and no indication that any of them have escaped, aside from Twins' corpse itself. You have zero basis for flatly asserting A) that SCAPE has has no kills or; B) NibblerTwins was the first SCAPEkill. I don't know if that's what MBL didn't like about that post, but your conclusion seems to come from nowhere.

Ah, that's a detail I missed. It's still extremely unlikely that SCAPE killed FL though, and very unlikely that SCAPE killed Flameaxe. And Pooky also doesn't look like an obvious mafia kill. I admit that I don't have any evidence, but I do believe that SCAPE not having a kill or NibblerTwins being the first SCAPE kill are likely explanations for the deads we have seen thus far.

Gaspar, please answer this quote.

I find the existence of a redirector-type role to be very highly unlikely. The scums obviously did not kill themselves Night One. So, yes. I'd give about 95% that Fae was killed by a nonSCAPE kill.

Does the fact that Niv claimed to be redirected from Pooky to RogueBen has any influence on your belief of the existence of a redirector? You believe Niv targetted RogueBen directly? Or that he lied about his ability as well, and used RogueBen to confirm him?

I find it extremely strange that you claim to have believed throughout the game that a redirector type role was very highly unlikely, yet you believed Niv (who claimed to have been redirected from Pooky to RogueBen) to be pro-town.

[MichelSableheart]

Not late, I brought up the fact that Niv claimed to be redirected in post #844, before you started your attack on Gaspar for it. However, I understood Gaspar's remark to mean "I find the existance of a redirector very unlikely at the moment", and asked him what his conclusions were on Rogueben based on Niv's claim and that belief. Only when he claimed to have held that belief throughout the game (in post #884, quote below) does the question rise why he believed Niv's claim in the first place.

Simple. Mith does not strike me as the kind of mod to include such a role. I have played and read several of his games, and I don't recall ever seeing something as such.

You haven't held this belief consistently over the course of this game. I call bullshit. Would you care to revise your remarks?

What the hell are you talking about? I care to revise nothing. The only bullshit you smell is your own.

[MichelSableheart]

I was the one who first brought up the possibility of NibblerTwins being the first SCAPE kill. My reasoning is roughly as follows:
- SCAPE is probably a scum group. Usually, scum groups have kills.
- Night 1, FaerieLord was killed. It is extremely unlikely this kill was made by SCAPE, seeing that FaerieLord was one of them.
- Night 2, Flameaxe was killed. It is unlikely this kill was made by SCAPE, because Flameaxe (in the incarnation of BBMars) was under quite a bit of suspicion.
- Night 3, Pooky was killed. He could be a SCAPE kill, but his death seems to fit into the pattern of the earlier nightkills.
- At the beginning of day 4, NibblerTwins showed up death. It is unknown by whom or what he was killed.

So, we have a group of possible killers, but few to no deaths attributed to them, and we have a dead body without a killer. I consider the fact that the two are connected a serious possibility.

Xtox did not assume anything. He speculated, and he even challenged his own "two groups of three" by pointing out that kills don't agree with that belief. Given that he's also blatantly protown (see my big huge enormous post for details), I don't see a problem with his post. When I thought you took his speculation and ran with it, that's what made me do a spit-take.

Gaspar, in your big huge enormous post, you are mainly arguing that Xtoxm is obviously non-SCAPE, not that he is blatantly protown. I really don't like the way you silently assume the two are the same thing.

I really need to do a reread to take recent events into account. The case against Vollkan, the discussion between Gaspar and MBL... Hopefully I'll get around to it either tomorrow or thursday.

[MichelSableheart]

I haven't had the time yet to read the Gaspar-MBL debate thoroughly. I did take a look at the Vollkan case though.

When looking into it, I found Xtoxm to be unhelpful. I can't consider a vote without further comments to be listing suspicions. The case against him by Thesp and Gaspar is mainly Vollkan's lack of contribution, especially at the end of day 3.

Rereading Vollkan, I must admit that his lack of contribution on relevant topics is extremely worrying. Day 1, he focusses on Niv, does not comment on either MM or FL. In post #255, he asks if there is an advantage to making a condorcet list, but in his next post (#285), he does make one, with MM second from the top, without having commented on MM whatsoever. This is worrying, coming from a player who has pressed the important of giving reasoning with your votes. Day 2, roughly the same story. His comments on OGML are minimal. During day 3, the players he comments on most are MBL (early in the day) and Xtoxm. So 3 hours for the deadline, he posts part of his promised scumdar... On CKD, Destructor and Gaspar, all players who are definately not contenders for the lynch. Sure, he worked in alphabetical order, but still. There's a lot more to the Vollkan case then I originally thought. As far as I can see, he hasn't been involved in serious discussion about a lynch yet.

[MichelSableheart]

Your thoughts on the possibility we have two scum groups? Body was found could have been a lynch (though I doubt it). I find it strange that you quickly jump to “that must have been SCAPE’s first kill.” In the last game, where Gaspar was the remaining scum, a mafia kill was “murdered”. Gaspar was an assassin (could by pass doc’s), if he made the kill for the group, the death said something different (correct me if I am wrong gaspar). My point here si that there could be many possibilities to this kill....why you so quickly pushing that it was a SCAPE kill is bothersome.

Go read the post where I originally mentioned the possibility again. I never jumped to the conclusion "that must have been SCAPE's first kill". What I originally said was that, of all the deaths thus far, only the death of Nibbler Twins could be attributed to SCAPE IMO. (And I never suggested that was likely). I really would like to know where this misrepresentation comes from. FTR, here's the quote:

Scape indeed seems to be a scumgroup, but I don't think there are any kills that can be attributed to them yet. FaerieLord, Flameaxe and Pooky all got the same description (murdered), so are likely to be made by the same killer. It's possible that the dead of Nibbler Twins can be attributed to them, though.

Unfortunately, I don't have the time at the moment to make a more thorough post. I should be back into action tomorrow.

[MichelSableheart]

“that must have been SCAPE’s first kill.” expresses a certainty I don't have, nor ever had. I have always clearly stated that I think SCAPE not having killed anyone yet is at least equally, if not more, likely. However, your post made it sound as if I was 100% convinced that Nibbler Twins was SCAPE's first kill, which is definately not the case. Underlining the important parts of the two quotes.

Scape indeed seems to be a scumgroup, but

I don't think there are any kills that can be attributed to them yet

. FaerieLord, Flameaxe and Pooky all got the same description (murdered), so are likely to be made by the same killer. It's

possible

that the dead of Nibbler Twins can be attributed to them, though.

I admit that I don't have any evidence, but I do believe that

SCAPE not having a kill

or

NibblerTwins being the first SCAPE kill are likely explanations for the deads we have seen thus far.

Reread of the Gaspar-MBL argument later today.

[MichelSableheart]

Reading the discussion from page 33 onward. It didn't give the amount of info I hoped it would, though.

MBL's main argument against Gaspar is a general accusation of carelessness. Even though he is correct in that accusation, I don't think it can be concluded from that that Gaspar is scum. The only reason for Gaspar scum to be careless with the truthfulness of his suspicions would be if a lack of time prevented him to do more thorough research. But exactly the same argument works for Gaspar town having a lack of time. If Gaspar is scum, he isn't SCAPE, and he's partners with Xtoxm. I don't think it's likely he's scum though.

The main argument against MBL is that he's vague about the reasons for his suspicions, using strong languages to make accusations when the evidence doesn't nearly support that amount of conviction. I mostly agree with this; it seems he used roughly the same tactic against OGML.

Currently, I'm willing to support the lynches of MBL, Rogueben, Vollkan and Xtoxm.

Unvote

Vote:

MrBuddyLee

, Rogueben, Vollkan, Xtoxm, Thesp, destructor, curiouskarmadog, NabNab, Gaspar, {IH, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

I didnt like MBL attack of OMGL earlier in the thread, but his vote on Niv's I felt was decent...would like to hear MS and vollkan address that vote of Niv yesterday

The only vote on Niv made by MBL I can find was made during the middle of day 2, based on a rather weak tell, and dropped fairly quickly. MBL using that vote to say "I told you so" in post #838 seems incredibly fake to me.

Niv voting MBL is the only tell in MBL's favour I have found in the entire game. Considering how correct the reasoning of that vote was, I believe that's rather weak evidence to consider MBL pro-town.

NabNab, why introduce Robert Graysmith as the character played by Jake Gyllenhaal in Zodiac, when Robert Greysmith is a real life person?

Thesp and MS, what are your current opinions of each other?

Thesp hasn't been hugely active, especially during the first days. Besides that, I haven't really got reasons to suspect he's scum. His pressure on me during day 2 and 3 seems genuine, as is his stance on Vollkan today. The only time he truly went for the easy lynch was the Niv lynch yesterday, but that one turned out to be on scum.

Gaspar, what do you think of the possibililty that Xtoxm is a serial killer?

Vollkan's lynch looks the most likely atm. Supporting the bandwagon based on my observations in post #930.

Unvote

Vote

: MrBuddyLee, Rogueben,

Vollkan

, Xtoxm, destructor, Thesp, curiouskarmadog, NabNab, Gaspar, {IH, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

With our murderer killing NabNab last night, I guess we're looking for the Zodiac killer, not for a vig.

Say MBL, weren't you amongst the people complaining about my quick hammer on day 2?

Can we please finally lynch MBL today?

Vote: MrBuddyLee

, Rogueben, Xtoxm, destructor, Thesp, curiouskarmadog, Gaspar, {IH, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Xtoxm, think for a moment. NN was a pro-town investigator looking for the Zodiac Killer. If there is a Zodiac Killer, he is likely anti-town (being a serial killer does that, sometimes, especially when pro-town players are out to get you). A vig who isn't the Zodiac Killer had no reason whatsoever to take out NN last night (don't kill a claimed info role except if you have an extremely good reason). A Serial Killer who isn't the Zodiac Killer also had little reason to target NN (why kill an investigation role that can possibly clear you?). So by far the most likely explanation of the nightkill of NN is that the Zodiac Killer, being a serial killer, didn't want to run the risk of getting outed by NN and killed him.

Mr. Grey keeps us all locked in a large mansion when there are killers around, he probably knows what's going on, and seems to be enjoying himself. Seems rather anti-town to me. Yet despite me putting him on the condorcet, he never showed up in the vote counts, so it's probably a dead lead. I've been toying with the idea that SCAPE are just scapegoats for Mr. Grey's plans, but I don't think we should risk no lynching to test that.

[MichelSableheart]

Because I can, basically, combined with a bit of laziness. He was originally on there to test if he could be condorcet voted. When it seemed like it didn't matter that he was on there, I simply never took him of. I kept including Sarcastro and IH to have my condorcet list be of all players in the game (I would probably forget which exact two players were missing otherwise), and if I kept including them, I saw no reason to remove Mr. Grey.

There is a very simple reason he's so low; it seems like it doesn't matter where he is.

[MichelSableheart]

Sure, I'll bite. Let's start with the arguments I have brought up already.

First, there is your behaviour towards OGML. You were correct that he had hardly done any scumhunting, and that when he did, his cases were poor. Your attack on him was way over the top, however. You focussed fully on him, seemed to be unwilling to look at anyone else. You expressed extreme certainty, which was unwarranted by the evidence at hand. You kept pushing the wagon till you were followed to the lynch... and then you tried to lay the blame for the lynch on me for hammering.

The next thing I would like to mention is post #435.

Please read OGML's contribution to the game before thinking about lynching anyone else. He was in a basement of three people that voted out a townie. I find it highly unlikely that the mod would put three townies in such a situation.

That, combined with his play today, makes him significantly scrutable.

Later on, you have explained that the sentence about the mod not placing three townies in the basement was intended to hint at the possibility of a player deciding who ends up in the basement. I find this explanation unplausible. First of all, there is the strong implication in your sentence of "the mod did not put three townies in the basement, so one of the people in the basement has to be scum". Anyone reading that sentence for the first time will take it as meaning exactly that. Furthermore, the underlined part shows that the sentence in question means you are more suspicious of OGML. However, if a player chose who ended up in the basement, you should have been less suspicious of OGML (a role choosing which players end up in the basement is only useful if said role has information about alignements, otherwise there is no difference to the mod randomly selecting who ends up there. scum is much more likely to have info about alignements then town, making the players in the basement more likely to be town then scum).

Next thing to look at is your day 1 play. Post #252 explains why I believe you posted way too little content for the amount of posts you made. After that, things didn't really get better. We see a mild attack on me voting FL and a promise of improved contribution in post #273, and an unexplained FL vote in post #303. You claim that I protected FaerieLord day 1 by putting MM over him on my condorcet. How would you describe your own behaviour towards FaerieLord that day?

Day 3, 8 hours from deadline. There are two leading bandwagons: Niv and MBL. So what does MBL give us? He completely ignores the Niv bandwagon. He also claims that there is no reasoning whatsoever for the people voting him. Two remarks in that post stand out.

MBL is leading this town around way too much. He is by far most responsible for the OGML mislynch.
vote: MBL

(That coming from the guy who HAMMERED OGML. Are you kidding me? I led YOU into hammering OGML? My bad. WTF!)

The fact that I was the one who hammered does not make your behaviour better.

This is such a clasic scum post that it scares me. it is so full of, He is scuummy, but when he turns up town, don't look at me. this is just terrible.
vote: MBL

What? When I turn up town don't blame you for voting me?

Way to misread him!

Day 4, you spent mostly fighting with Gaspar. Here, we see again your tendency to use strong language in your accusations while being vague about your suspicions. You start with a vote, then you mention you found 2 anomalities, and only several posts later do you start explaining what you mean. You keep calling Gaspar extremely scummy, then suddenly switch to him being not SCAPE.

You go on to make the move I have been criticized for: hammering without giving people the time to discuss the claim. You do remember the innocent Fresnino/Fresnonian/Fresnoite from the previous game, don't you?

And then there are your direction attempts at the end of that day. "SK, please take out MSh, not me", "scum, please kill NabNab". NabNab has been revealed town, I know I am town. Those redirection attemtps really don't make you look better.

There you have your case. You know, you were the second most popular bandwagon on day 2, 3 and 4 for a reason.

I'm also unsure of why Michel has decided that it's a reasonable assumption that the Nibbler Twin's death can be attributed to SCAPE. Why even bring this up?

I know you explained why you thought this may be the case, but why did you feel like mentioning it?

Gaspar asked some questions about the nature of SCAPE to Thesp in post #827. This got me thinking, and my post #829 was an attempt to summarize my feelings on the topic. One of the questions was if SCAPE had a nightkill. My response was that they either didn't have a nightkill, or Nibbler Twins was killed by them.

I also believe it's not a good idea to lynch OGML today. It's extremely improbable that he and CKD are scum together, and both seem quite convinced the other is town.

I'm not sure how this makes any sense. Why were ckd and OGML's reads on each other so significant, to the point that we should base our opinions on them? He went on to place them both below {People} on his condorcet.

I believe I have already explained this during the beginning of day 3. CKD and OGML both came from the basement, so they had more information on each other then other players had. I even suspected them to be masons. Post #610 goes into slightly more detail.

CKD, when exactly where you informed that you would be returning to the main group? At the end of day 1, or at the end of night 1? Depending on your answer, I may have spotted something.

[MichelSableheart]

Must have been in the other thread then, because we only read you returned. And because that thread disappeared on day 2, it must have been at the end of day 1. Which means the two of you appeared before FaerieLord died, so his dead can't have triggered your return.

Too bad. I had hopes we could get the last two missing players back by finding a third SCAPE member. The others each appeared immediately after the death of a SCAPE member after all.

[MichelSableheart]

curiouskarmadog, I strongly dislike your questioning of Xtoxm here. Xtoxm stated that he thought Thesp was a vig before NN claimed. At that point in time, the assumption that we had a vig and not an SK was not unreasonable. Yes, he made a mistake in mentioning it, but you pressing the matter really isn't helpful either.

[MichelSableheart]

MS, I care about your dislike why? You dont find it odd that he proclaims that he thinks Thesp is a vig, but doesnt provide reasoning. Lets say that X really thinks that Thesp is the vig, or lets say that Thesp really is a vig, you feel it is ok for X to say that? WHy are you not curious to his motivations?

I am curious why he thought that Thesp was a vig, and now that we probably dont have a vig, does X think he is the SK? I want to see how/why his opinions change..it is called scum hunting, so your "dislike" is noted.

These are fair questions. MS, why didnt you have a problem with X stating he thought Thesp was a vig (out of no where), but you have a problem with me following up with why X would say that and his thoughts now?

I definately think X made a mistake when he said he believed Thesp to be vig, because such a remark does not help town find scum, but does help scum find powerroles.

However, by far the last thing the town should know is why X believed Thesp to be a powerrole. If the mere mentioning of the possibility of Thesp being powerrole is bad for the town, I don't have to explain what harm discussing why people believe Thesp to be a powerrole does. Such discussion only leads to outting powerroles, not outing scum. Your continuous pressure on him to give his reasoning is therefore extremely bad for the town.

Not going to unvote, because I'm perfectly happy with a MBL lynch.

[MichelSableheart]

I'd think at least one person would have the common sense to unvote. There's no hurry to lynch me, and we're way short on information today. Also, there's a lot of setup discussion to be had based on what we know now. It would be to scum's benefit to lynch me right now, and as the cliche goes, they wouldn't take a ton of shit for it.

Why would you need to be unvoted in order to not be quicklynched? You aren't lynched as long as you are on L-1. Also, if you believe there is anything that ought to be discussed before you are lynched, then why aren't you discussing it?!

[MichelSableheart]

CKD, the claims of OGML, Niv and Vollkan also didn't have secret words. Why are you asking for a secret word from MBL now, if you didn't ask for their secret words?

[MichelSableheart]

Fishing? Rolefishing? My post definately wasn't intended as such. I noticed a change in CKD's behaviour (he didn't ask OGML, Niv or Vollkan for their secret words, he did ask MBL for his secret word), and wanted to know if there was a reason for that. I expected to hear a change of opinion regarding secret words, possibly combined with the fact that CKD wasn't there when Niv claimed, and didn't log in after Vollkan claimed. I did not regard my question as being role related.

However, RogueBen's response strikes me as extremely odd: as if he knows that CKD's role has something to do with the secret words. But that is info RogueBen isn't supposed to have, and might imply scumteam. Thoughts, anyone?

I believe vollkan provided one..

Vollkan said he had one, but didn't mention what it was.

I don't understand how someone can have confusion about having an ability. I don't think it actually makes a difference to his alignment though as I can imagine scum power claiming vanilla with benefits just in case they get tracked.

I have already explained this. The fact that it explicitly denied I had night abilities, yet didn't mention day abilities in any way, was what set me thinking about the possibility. I still haven't noticed anything about a day ability, however.

Unvote

Vote:

MrBuddyLee

, Rogueben, Xtoxm, destructor, Thesp, curiouskarmadog, Gaspar, {IH, Sarcastro}, Mr. Grey, No Lynch, MichelSableheart

[MichelSableheart]

Sorry, that isn't a vote change, and therefore shouldn't be there. I was thinking about moving CKD up, but desided against it in the end.

[MichelSableheart]

Gaspar, are you really going to help MBL become the second most popular lynch candidate for the fourth time in a row?

Destructor, if Gaspar originally voted on the assumption that MBL had info, Gaspar ignoring that line is not unreasonable. After all, I've heard MBL make the remark "I don't think the mod would do that" to mean "I think a player would". He could easily have made his remark "I don't think that has happened yet" refer to "dig yourself out of a hole with the truth" instead of to the investigation.

[MichelSableheart]

I agree, it really seems like MBL is going to lurk to deadline again. His "please wait with lynching me till we've had more discussion" is well and all, but it really seems that was only to make sure an alternative would crop up. I highly doubt there will be any more informative posts from him.

[MichelSableheart]

What do people think about Xtox being the Zodiac Killer?

He's my top suspect for that role, closely followed by you. However, I'm more convinced that MBL and RogueBen are scum in general (without knowing to which scumgroup they belong).

Thesp, what was it that MBL said than you were refering to here:

He said:

If I'm wrong, lynch me tomorrow.

Scum are less likely to use such a gambit, probably because they tend to regard their lives as more precious.

I only remember having seen that remark being made once: By Skruffs in mini 533, where Skruffs was a serial killer.

[MichelSableheart]

Oops... Completely forgot that.

The fact that in 1.5 months, you still haven't caught up (even though you posted a month ago that you would finish it then); The fact that while you were rereading, you discussed mainly things that happened a couple of days ago, rather then commenting on what actually was going on; The fact that both your predecessors and you have been extremely low on content; it all makes you look as if you want to draw as little attention as possible. Rather then scumhunting, you make it look like you are participating, without actually doing anything.

That is behaviour I would expect from a serial killer. They don't care who is lynched, as long as it isn't them (as opposed to mafia, who have partners to protect). However, NabNab's investigation makes you an extremely unlikely candidate, I must admit. Thanks for reminding me.

[MichelSableheart]

MBL, if you are indeed the Zodiac Killer, the right play is obviously to get rid of the only nightkill we have seen so far, and lynch scum with 100% certainty. Especially considering the fact that I am 100% certain my lynch would be the lynch of an innocent.

I don't believe for one moment that MBL is playing to survive just another day. He is actually trying to win the game. It is not a good idea to see what he has in store for tomorrow.

And about his claim that he is responsible for the lack of nightkills by blocking me? Let's leave that for tomorrow, when we actually will have the time to discuss things, rather then the 14 hours he has left us.

Oh, and Xtoxm: unless you have very strong evidence, please don't make the ridiculous assumption that the Zodiac Killer is town.

[MichelSableheart]

Thanks for playing everyone, it was a great game.

Though the ghost mechanic was interesting, it does have one problem: it's difficult for the ghosts to actually stay involved with the main thread. Especially for the confirmed SCAPErs, who are trying to influence a lynch when everyone knows they're anti-town.

Also interesting is that the three ghost powerroles didn't die until the ghosts didn't have any influence on the game anymore.

I take it as a compliment from SCAPE that I was both nightkilled and strongly considered for a ghostkill.