That's interesting indeed.. how certain you are that the game has TWO scum left alive at this point. (Otherwise; if RR flips scum the game ends. Right??)
STEVEN UNIVERSE 2 - GAME OVER
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Btw, I need your modding experience on this one: What does an action that CANNOT FAIL exactly mean? It cannot be blocked? It cannot be blocked OR redirected? It works through a JK block?? What??
Cuz if the name of my target wasn't explicitly mentioned in my result it gives me the feeling it's NOT that of my target. Then again, why would scum redirect me to someone who did not take action when they could've stayed put and take no action themselves??
This may not help determine alignments, but it sure doesn't bode well with me.
P-edit:
@grapes:
What's your precise question to me?
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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It took Varsoon a whole day to get back to me with a result to begin with, so no I didn't bother asking him what it meant.In post 11545, grapes wrote:I wanna know why you're getting hung up on not getting a result worded to you the same way and are trying to twist that like it means you were redirected and not that it was just worded a different way.
And also what your action does? Now that I'm reading your post it looks like you can tell if someone actioned or not at night.
First; have you asked Varsoon about why there was a wording difference.
Then two, you can explain to me where a redirector comes in here, given we haven't really seen evidence of one.
And then third how you being redirected makes you think I'm scum to start with.
However, in my mind when your role is tailored to get results in a certain format then when that format changes it should be a point of concern.
And yes, I can tell if my target took action and whether that action was harmful. On Season Finale it also tells me the exact action and who the target was. That's why I've used it Twice of 3 times on Season Finale. The first one had to be used before the Season Finale though.
Now maybe you can help me understand why TWIE would confirm you got shot at by Sky if that was the case. Care to give that one a try?
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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So you're saying Scum!TWIE confirmed Sky being Scum for shits and giggles?In post 11547, grapes wrote:I've been obvtown all game. Twie either didn't really think confirming that would mean anything, or thought you all would drown in wine over it. Look what happened.
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Let me try to predict the course of the game. Currently both RR & grapes are at 3 votes (L-2). Next up; MoI will come to vote RR. Shiro will hammer. RR will flip Town. TFL's shot will fail, and he is the likely NK. I get lynched tomorrow, and Mastina is NK's at night. Game over. Scum team of Cakez, Sky, Shadow, TWIE, grapes, Shiro & DGB win. And if that happens then my greatest regards to Shiro for doing exactly the opposite of what I would have expected Scum!Shiro to do when he stopped pushing me on D1 (although he thought I was Jenney Pizza not Buck Dewey).
I do sincerely hope that I'm wrong and that grapes is the one and only scum still alive, but his own posts give me the weird feeling that I was right and that there are TWO scums alive, not just one.
While we (myself, random, TFL and RR) are trying to narrow it down to a more precise lynch pool; grapes is throwing shade on everyone not confirmed, and then on random (who IS confirmed) too.
grapes: RR is OMGUSing.
grapes: Why me over Almost
grapes: TFL is trying to go against the will of conf!Town
grapes: Could random be scum?
The only one he didn't throw shade on (apart from Mastina & MoI) is Shiro, and this is for an obvious reason. If there is one scum remaining then Shiro IS clear, and since both Mastina and MoI do believe it's one more lynch to go then mud slinging Shiro would back fire on grapes.
The thing is lynching grapes today either ends the game in a Town victory or confirms there IS another scumster alive, thus bringing Shiro back to the lynch pool. There is no doubt in my mind now that grapes will flip red. He is accusing RR of flailing when all I see is grapes is the one flailing hard trying to pin it on anyone he can.
TFL IS TOWN. He proved it with the farside shot. RR slot IS TOWN. They've been doing the effort and harder than anyone else I might add. (Mastina was invested earlier but has stopped thinking/reevaluating as of late, and Titus did what she could by got NK'd early).
I know I'm Town and don't need to prove it anymore. Mastina was mod-confirmed to Yume, and both Gems are confirmed to each other as well as having been confirmed to the other Gems too.
This leaves us with grapes and Shiro (not an OR though). Shiro was bubbled yesterday, so cannot be the "only" scumster alive. So it is either grapes, OR grapes AND Shiro.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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inb4 someone asks how TFL's shot could fail. He's not allied with me and we're not in Season Finale. He could be either blocked or -worse- redirected. If the latter then all scum would need is to mislynch tomorrow. So one of myself/TFL dies tonight (to the scum kill) and one of Mastina/myself die to the redirected TFL shot, then the mislynch is on the living one of myself/TFL and it's Game Over.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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At this point, I think the answer is YES.In post 11597, Shiro wrote:Am I the only one here that wants ftl dead?
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NEWS ALERT:
My result now reads as GRAPES took no action.
Just conveying the info I received on my inbox though. It doesn't change much to me. My one and only acceptable lynch of the day is grapes, then if the game doesn't end Shiro comes into consideration.
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Xk almost gave me his role PM word for word. He had everything explained in details, and I relayed it as-is.In post 11672, grapes wrote:@A50/RR - When Xk claimed his role to you guys did he claim it as an event or just a regular action? And Almost when you relayed the info did you specify which it was?
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Because my mind, my gut and my PoE all tell me you're most likely red. I can't see it any other way.In post 11673, grapes wrote:So why is your vote still on me?
Also, I have a huge problem with your defense. You seem too scared to die, albeit it being a good thing at this point to eliminate all suspicions. Myself and Fuzzy and even RR have all expressed will to go at this point. I think a Townie who believes there's only one scumster left should be alright eating rope or getting NK'd today/tonight just to give the confirmed players a clearer view.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Let me try to sum up my views at this point. We have 3 confirmed Townies, so let's save us the effort and space on those.
TFL: is Town by virtue of his shot on farside while knowing I was going to check grapes. A stand-alone Scum!TFL doesn't want a clear on grapes for sure, and he certainly didn't need me (the one he was supposed to shoot) to Town read him, nor did he need RR (the one at the receiving end of Mastina/MoI attacks) on his side. As a scum of 2 alive they still didn't want a clear on grapes, unless grapes is his partner. Then again, that meant grapes had to forfeit the NK in order to get that clear, which still isn't a good move, but I'll consider it as if that was the only way of getting rid of farside.
So TFL can only be scum with grapes under certain assumptions. He can neither be scum with someone else nor can he be the lone scumster left.
P.S. No it could not have been someone else -other than grapes- that skipped their kill to put us in this situation. While skipping the NK does put grapes in the grey area it also puts TFL in a similar grey area to some. If a second kill had been submitted last night both TFL and grapes would have been confirmed today, and grapes could have been shot tonight instead of keeping TFL less than a 100% clear.
Now, Shiro: who cannot be the lonely scumster alive (or the game would have ended when we lynched S_S). He is either Town or a scumster of 2 alive. If we want to lynch Shiro we need to find the other one first.
RR: Drixx' analysis on SC doesn't come from a partner, but I'll only put this down as lead not evidence. A far stronger lead would be them knowing of Xk role details (and I know they did because I was the one filling them in). Still, the biggest point I can come up with now is the TWIE event which -allegedly- confirms grapes.
Now we all know how good the due of RR heads are (and @MAstina: I have played with Drixx alone, Cerb alone, Cerb in two other hydra's and both as RR), and we know if they are masterminding the scum team play then the TWIE event must've been discussed and well planned by them beforehand. Now either they expected TWIE to flip soon or they were hopeful he will go on far enough. Why the "Sky shot grapes"? If they didn't expect TWIE to flip it was to clear grapes (the one the are strongly pushing right now). If they expected TWIE to flip though it was to discredit the result, but why would you bus a partner only to put "uncertain shades" on someone, and especially so when that someone's role isn't even as dangerous to scum as others appear to be?
I think Scum!RR would have used that TWIE event more strategically than they did. I think Scum!RR would have avoided the trapping of Sky to begin with with their knowledge of Xk's role. I think Scum!RR would have found a way to manipulate my ability to their favour.
That leaves me and grapes, and I won't even try to make a case for myself. grapes I've said multiple times why he makes perfect sense as either the remaining lonely scum or one of two remaining in the game.
So, my vote remains on grapes and there's a chance the game ends with that particular lynch. If it still doesn't then we reassess the cases on both Shiro & RR (Shiro first to me). Avoiding a grapes doesn't solve anything and doesn't give us any more leads than we already have.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Considering Fuzzy doesn't have a shot tonight I don't see why not. I will submit you as my ally.In post 11738, MagnaofIllusion wrote:No clue if that is a hammer or not ...
I'll be leaving detailed instructions to Random in the Gem PT so I'm comfortable that Town has this in hand even if I die overnight.
Would prefer to ally with Almost tonight ...
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In post 11731, grapes wrote:Fuzzy. Hammer it.
Btw, I -for one- am not "sure" of anything until the mod confirms it. However, if you're Town the game will go on. If you're scum but you have another p alive the game will continue. Only if you were the last scum will it end. So, no harm in making plans that do not materialize because the game is over, but it'd be dumb NOT to have alliances and such pre-planned bc we cannot communicate after the thread is locked.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Gems canNOT win w/o Earth. Remember?In post 11747, grapes wrote:Fuzzy if you're scum you can't win. Decide whether earth or gems deserve it more.
Town kicked ass this game for a while gems all coasted.
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Now this is an outright scum claim! You first said MoI was scummy for pushing you, then you want random dead. You already tried to mud sling at Mastina, and have casted doubt against each and every slot other than those 3 as well.In post 11765, grapes wrote:Fuzzy, be a bro and kill random that'll give earth more time to wake up and realize it's not that easy.
I'm now 80% sure you're counting on everyone submitting their actions early at night then forgetting all about it till the day break. No other explanation for this. This means that there IS another living scumster, and that -I think- would be Shiro.
There's no way Shiro can kill all of myself, MoI & RR, but even if he did (I have no idea how that could happen) he will then have discarded almost everyone he could have pushed on tomorrow. That would leave only Fuzzy to try and mislynch.
However, you're forgetting one thing: FUZZY DOES NOT HAVE A SHOT. Furthermore, HE IS NO ALLYING WITH ANYONE TONIGHT.
Which reminds me (if nobody has proposed a better composition):
MoI/A50
RR/Shiro
random/Mastina
Fuzzy >> no one.
MoI requested allying with me, so that's fine.
Shiro was bubbled by the Gems and cannot talk to Mastina (because allying with her provides no PT) so it's only logical that he allies with the only one available for him to actually have a OT with.
That only leaves random & Mastina to ally together, since Fuzzy said he doesn't want to ally and won't benefit from an alliance.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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As I've declared before; everybody gets a taste of their own cooking. I will be the first to tell you I will not be voting RR until grapes is gone. In fact, I'm not going to vote ANYONE until grapes is gone.In post 11817, mastin2 wrote:If we don't lynch RR today, then I'm going to ally with grapes again.
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And that's exactly what's pissing me off right now. This is a team game, not a superstar event with minions serving them all around. You have but only one vote and you should never try to force your view on the rest of us. I have as much right as you do to have a say, and even be wrong about it. You trying to arrange our play according to your own amusement is unacceptable by any means. Sorry. No can do.In post 11817, mastin2 wrote:I realize that's potentially holding the game hostage.
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@Mastina:
Btw, if scum knew about your alliance giving you that bonus; then certainly grapes should have been NK'd at night because they already knew a push on him won't bear fruits. That is IF GRAPES WAS TOWN.
If RR -in particular- were scum, they would have requested Fuzzy shoots grapes instead of farside, requested me to -say- investigate THEM to verify they didn't take action, and then came today with their push on farside with full thrust based on the night action results.
Picture this:
I get a result that RR didn't act. Fuzzy shoots grapes. Shiro was bubbled. You and the Gems are confirmed. It virtually leaves no room to argue about farside eating rope, with myself and Fuzzy being the "back-up suspects" when she flips Town.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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Not really. I'm resigned to the fact my memory has developed more holes in it than moon cheese. *Shrug*In post 11821, mastin2 wrote:(Just for the lulz, went and checked: it was farside who suggested I ally with grapes. MoI gave his stamp of approval for that, too. Almost50, like me, probably forgot about my alliance power, though he's probably gonna feel mighty stupid when he realizes what just happened.)
But yes, I did get notified of that power.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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It's not useless if it's on scum, but it's even more or a principle.In post 11834, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Almost appears to be taking a contrarian "I'm keeping my vote useless" stance.
HOWEVER, you want analysis? I'll give you analysis:
Let's ASSUME grapes is the NOT the last lonely scum here. Just play with me. We mislynch Fuzzy, and they do NOT shoot tonight. Tomorrow we are 5 vs 2 with 4 to lynch, except grapes keeps his alliance with Mastina, and it's not yet LyLo/MyLo so 6 votes to lynch him (i.e. he is unlynchable).
Now, let's say we do lynch his scum buddy (that would be Shiro in this precise hypothetical assumption) and we enter the night as 5 vs 1 and he shoots someone (say me) and keeps his alliance with Mastina still, and -again- he is unlynchable.
4 vs 1 and Mastina is still stubborn, so you lynch RR and .. surprise surprise .. with so many players who could have been conf!Town at this point (regardless of who dies it looks like there still would have been 3 out of the last 5) the scum are given a 1-shot double kill for compensation. Game over!
Now let's go back and ASSUME grapes is the LONELY SCUM ALIVE and redo the math. We mislynch Fuzzy, he shoots me (again, say) and he keeps his alliance with Mastina since it's be 5 vs 1 tomorrow so he is unlynchable (4 to lynch +2 additional = he must vote himself). Only Mastina wants RR lynched, so we do that and it's 4 vs 1 going into the night. NO KILL. He keeps his alliance with her and is still unlynchabe. Now you have 2 choices:
1- Keep on NOT lynching and he keeps NOT killing and the game ends in a draw.
2- Lynch Shiro (out of boredom) or Mastina (out of frustration) and grapes shoots the other one thus instantly winning the game for wiping out the Earth faction even if both you and random are still alive.
Note that I the second scenario I didn't even include the possibility of any additional compensation given to the scum for the sheer amount of confirmed Town aligned players (Earth or Gems) potentially making it to LyLo/MyLo.
The right move now is to lynch grapes and nobody else, and nobody allies with Mastina. If the game ends then we have won. If it doesn't then we know the last scum isn't protected by an unattainable lynch threshold.
I've considered alternative scenarios for today but I don't have the info to verify their validity, and some even I would consider to be an "ugly" course to take.
For example: I can follow you and lynch Fuzzy, and you bubble grapes tonight and then execute him regardless of there being an NK or not. I obviously don't know the requirements or conditions of your bubbling ability, plus if a kill does occur it would ideally be on me so Mastina would still use that to stick it on RR and get them lynched. She gets NK'd and it's the 2nd scenario above.
We can also go for NL today, but with no NK tonight we are back in the same situation tomorrow.
Or we can yield and lynch RR (I still assert I'm against yielding on principle though) and then I get NK'd, grapes is unlynchable, so you guys lynch the wrong one of Fuzzy/Shiro and the GAME IS OVER WITH THE NEXT NK ON MASTINA.
One last proposition is we No Lynch and you guys bubble MASTINA (this is the ugly proposition) thus preventing grapes from keeping the alliance with her, and we can lynch him tomorrow and the game goes as it would have today (except there is still a possibility one of us dies by night).
Now even in that ugly course I'm not on top of all info, so I don't know if you are BP, bc if you're not then grapes shooting you messes everything up again.
NOTE: DO NOT CLARIFY ANYTHING. What I don't know I do NOT need to know. Let's not give the remaining scum (whether it be one or two) additional info they should not have access to.
So, you see.. every scenario has it's ups and downs and is very much subject to hypothetical assumptions (they're hypothetical because we don't know for sure. We're just inspecting the possibilities and outcomes).
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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@Mastina:
When you said:
Is the bolded included in your PM or is it your own interpretation/understanding?? I ask because I noticed scum are keeping us on even numbers. We were 10 and now we're 8 and we will likely be 6 tomorrow, so I want to know for sure if MyLo IS explicitly mentioned in your role PM. Thank you.
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She may have been confirmed to you but not to me.In post 11844, mastin2 wrote:Because farside was fucking unlynchable.
You know what? You're still persistent on your thoughts .. your theories .. your understanding to be correct all the time.
I -on the other hand- will always be a stubborn asshole in response to that notion in particular.
If farside was stll alive today I would not have lynched anyone bu her, not even if I was told grapes was guilty AND she got mod-confirmed in public. The same now applies to RR. I'm not lynching that slot even if Varsoon himself confirms that slot to be scum.
You keep pushing your agenda, and the harder you do the harder my stance is on the opposite direction. We're not children, but you seem to want to play it that way. OK, forget I'm Almost 50.. I'm now almost 5 years old, a brat, and a mule head. I go before RR goes.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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There is no other viable lynch. I just thought of something that makes it all fit now: grapes DID get shot by Sky. Only his role is that of a JUDAS. He gets shot and he converts alignment. Easy. That's when he joined the dark side. That's why TWIE made sure Sky's shot was mod-confirmed (if indeed that was the case).In post 11849, MagnaofIllusion wrote:@Almost – regarding 11837 – I don’t care if it is on principle and a vote on scum – mastin has basically assured that grapes isn’t getting lynched. That means it is useless. Find another scum suspect to vote.
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I'm very much FOR this, btw. If you're not today's lynch then I should be. I have nothing more to offer and I doubt the game will reach the 3rd Season Finale, so I have no night action to benefit the Town.
Furthermore, I'm not an established analyst, and I sure am not a good case-constructor. In fact, making detailed cases with convincing logic and outspoken language has always been one of my weakest sides. I can scum-hunt, but I cannot easily get people to see what I see.
So, I would be happy to eat the rope today, and watch how the rest of the game goes from the dead thread.
@MoI:
PLEASE, do consider bubbling Mastina tonight. That's seems like the ONLY way left to lynch grapes tomorrow. He is very much in control now with her sheltering him, and it IS going to cost us the game. Don't say I didn't explicitly say this here and now as my last tip going out with my last breath.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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I didn't understand the question before, and I still don't now. What's the problem with Varsoon having the leftovers wincon in your PM and adding that if you get shot at that wincon is dissolved and you automatically join the scum faction?? It's a NEW wincom based on a mechanical occurrence that IS the definition of the role itself.In post 11878, grapes wrote:@Almost50In post 11860, grapes wrote:How on Earth do you suppose that I'm a scum-leftover-judas given that we've seen what the leftover wincon is and how one functioned already? Why were you skeptical of magna's flavor spec? Why do you think shiro is scum?
It's as if you're asking "How can a TOWN player be a JUDAS when SOME OTHER TOWN had flipped with a "Town wincon"?". and the fact is they just do (as per the wiki page of the role itself: A Judas isoriginally a pro-town role, butwhen it should die(either by lynch or other kill)it stays alive and converts to the Mafia's sideinstead.)
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And, since we're at the WIKI PAGE: In the interest of balance,the Judas may not be told who the rest of the Mafia are upon conversion.
So, all VC analysis are rendered obsolete bc there is a chance that grapes converted to the dark side, yet wasn't old who his partners were, so he remained uninformed.
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@Mastina:
You are getting too carried away with your push on RR you are starting to sound quite unreasonable yourself.
For one thing: RR are specialized in setup spec and breaking?? Well, so are YOU.
For another: They are specialized in manipulating people into thinking they're Town in PTs??
1- Titus is skeptical by nature. She cannot be manipulated/pocketed that easily. Furthermore, it was her, me, random, Fuzzy, Shiro, Yume and farside they allied with, not just one or two players.
2- The ONLY reason you are Conf!Town is because Yume said so. Hypothetically, it could very well be that you manipulated her into fake-claiming the text on the wall (i.e. there was no text but she was convinced claiming so is for the best).
Third: You assert you don't want grapes (and didn't want far) lynched based on speculation of either being 3P, and you want to lynch scum. Well, I seem to remember YOU were the one who said to lynch all 3P at the start of THIS VERY GAME. Why you changed your stance is a mystery to me.
Now w/o Yume's vouch for you I would still suggest you are very likely Town based on the ability you've been given (the threshold thing) AND for outing and pushing TWIE when there has been absolutely no need to bus him like that.
However, I'm not about doubtcasting you. I'm about expressing how awful some (actually many) of your own arguments are against yourself.
It's not "just my pride" (and yes, it has to do with it, but ONLY regarding your hijack of the game). It is also about your push being weak and unconvincing to me. My analysis/reads are different, and there's no reason for me to sheep anyone else at this point. Like, if anyone wants to lynch you at this point I wouldn't vote you either. I'm fully convinced grapes is caught scum and is trying his best to escape the lynch by throwing everything he has on most everyone alive (Please reread his posts of the day, especially the 2nd half of the day).
Now let me remind you of this little fact:
We are 8 today, so it takes 5 to lynch and 7 to lynch grapes. Tomorrow we might be 6, and even if he is the last scumster alive he becomes UNLYNCHABLE because it takes 4 to lynch and 6 to lynch HIM. Since it won't be LyLo in this case you probably will be ok lynching someone else, and then we are 5 and it takes all 5 to lynch him (he doesn't kill on the next night to ensure this is the case). OR he kills you and WIFOM's his way out of it as "why would I kill the one person not only fully Town reading me, but also providing me with protection from being lynched?"
I don't like doing future assumption based on assumptions because it tends to get complicated and I'm bound to make a mistake somewhere, but let's just limit this to the next day, so: Lynch anyone but grapes and he becomes UNLNCHABLE tomorrow, and I ave no way to know exactly what he has planned next.
If there are TWO scumsters alive, same thing, except they don't kill today, thus 7 alive tomorrow with 4 to lynch and 6 to lynch HIM. His partner won't vote him. It's not LyLo and we lynch someone else and... you get the picture.
So, please be considerate and let us lynch the one most of us feel comfortable lynching. If the game doesn't end and with you not allying with anyone next we can lynch RR tomorrow (or whoever you feel like lynching by then).
You yourself have admitted that a grapes town flip clears Shiro for good. That's a step ahead if you're Town reading grapes. On the other hand, a scum flip would either end the game or bring Shiro back on the able, only this time we KNOW there's only one scumster left alive. No ifs and buts anymore.
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[REDACTED]Last edited by Varsoon on Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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OOPS!
@varsoon:
Please delete the above post. It's in the wrong game thread.
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OK, I've just that, and it has absolutely no relevance to how he posted in the PTs with me (first myself alone them both myself and Fuzzy).In post 11919, mastin2 wrote:Too damn bad. At the very least, read Drixx's iso.
Compare his posting in there to the posting you see in your private topics.
The way he posted in THAT neighbourhood he sounded confused and asked for input, then he wanted confirmation on every move he made. It's as if he wanted to avoid taking responsibility for his actions and trying to make it look like everyone made him do it.
In PTs with me he is assertive and does not ask for much input from what "he may have missed". He goes on and EXPLAINS his views, reads and stances. He didn't strike me as puzzled (or pretending to be), confused or wanting my approval for anything. Not even ONCE.
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Ok, did that too, and this IS how they've been posting in the PT. Giving reads and explaining them. Setting plans (not asking waht course to take) .. etc.
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I -for one- can't shake off the "possibility" the scum kills are conditional, meaning that either something has to be true for them to be able to shoot, or something if true prevents them from taking a shot.
I will stress that this is a mere possibility though. A guess if you will. The game is complicated enough for me to either rule out the possibility or to take it for granted.
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I'm actually ahead of "most" of you. I'm already IN 2017
Happy New Year
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@Shiro:
That's why I said "most". I'm in the same time zone as you. GMT +2
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I can tell you why you'll never be killed in THIS game before LyLo/MyLo though, but I'm guessing you're bright enough to deduce it all by yourself.
OK, another "bad logic" of mine: You've allied with S_S. Before that your powers were unknown to scum, I get that. But from then on they knew of that +2 lynch threshold.
The question is: Why have the RR duo not tried to propose an alliance with you at any given time? Riddle me this, and please do take into account they knew all along you're going to be pushing them because you didn't make it a secret that you -at least- suspected that slot more than any other.
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Are you arguing for or against my point? because this number 3 of yours only serves to illustrate my point more.|In post 11964, mastin2 wrote:(Also, three: Yume more or less has known what my power was since D1. If Yume blabbered about it to RR--or even Skybird!--then scum would have known about it well before allying with Shadow_step. I told Yume my ally power was lynch related and many of the conditions for it.)
In fact, are you telling me scum could have known about your ability from the word go, yet all those who allied with you were Town with the exception of S_S? In what world does that make any sense (for the scum not to try to make use of such a powerful tool they had the info about all along)?
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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My point exactly. If you care to actually read rather than skim I said you won't be killed BEFORE LyLo.In post 11964, mastin2 wrote:
I've run the math there. Scum want me dead regardless of who they are, so I won't be. (My power doesn't work during mylo, so no matter what, I stop being of use alive.) YOU, on the other hand......In post 11963, Almost50 wrote:I can tell you why you'll never be killed in THIS game before LyLo/MyLo though, but I'm guessing you're bright enough to deduce it all by yourself.
Also, what about me .. "on the other hand"?
Honestly, the way the way played out I wouldn't want you dead EVEN in LyLo if I was scum. I'd be gambling the game on you making the wrong choices/pushes and handing me the game on a silver platter. the fact you've been trying to force your views on us makes me feel I have not been only playing against scum this game, but also against you and our overwhelming will to monopolize the game and lead in a dictatorship manner.
Forgive me for letting it all out, but it's no longer about who's scum. It's about me feeling that I have played in this game, not having just booked a spectator's seat from the sidelines of the playground.
Sure, I made some bad calls. It doesn't mean I don't have the right to have my own reads and judgements. I am a person, Mastina. A human being.. just like you are. And I'm telling you once again, I go before the RR slot goes, just because.
Now the way I see it is Mafia should be played in a more democratic fashion. The majority have decided it's best to lynch grapes today. This will keep the game locked as Town win EVEN if RR is the last scumster (as you keep promoting). I don't see your point of trying to go against the tide EVEN IF YOU WERE RIGHT. We lose nothing still if we lynch grapes today and RR tomorrow, unless you believe here might be TWO scumsters alive in which case you'd be conradicting yourself still because (by your own admission) this can't be the case unless grapes himself was that second Mafioso alive.
So, once more: One scum left = grapes first then RR leading to a Town win. TWO scums alive = grapes first then RR and we might win or we might be looking for that one last scumster if the game doesn't end by then.
Whereas, RR first is throwing the game away if there are two scums alive and they are not one.
I don't know how much more clearer I could have stated this.
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Depends on how you want to look at it, cuz I'm seeing a semi-perfect distribution of scum partners on all categories.In post 11972, mastin2 wrote:
^As far as early readslists goes, this is a good one. SirCakez we allllllllll know about by now. I'm not even gonna bother showing you grapes's SirCakez posting. But in that second tier, you get TWIE and Foxbird. What would you call that tier? Null? Nullscum? Nulltown? It can't be town. And it's not at all unreasonable. At this stage, grapes's reads were what I'd call: pretty damn sharp.In post 1059, grapes wrote:mastin2/Yume/farside22/Obi-Wan Kenobi/Creature/SnarkySnowman/killthestory/randomidget/McMenno//Almost50Skybird
Seraphim/CooLDoG/Firebringer/DrippingGoofball
/Xkfyu/TheWayItEnds/Shiro/KlingonceltFoxbird
kraskaesque/Not Chara/Reasonably Rational/SirCakez
Why semi-perfect? Because they're slightly tilted downwards (i.e. 3 scum at the bottom), but then .. SKYBIRD IS AT THE TOP AS SKYBIRD WAS THE ONE SET TO ENDGAME. (Glad that FINALLY got your attention).
And, by the by.. this is a clearly edited read list. SC is the LAST NAME listed on the scum line when he was the FIRST on the players list. DGB also is oddly placed on her own category. I'd say that was a last minute copy and paste after consulting with his scum team and getting advise to move Cakez down because he's going to be bussed and move DGB up because they now knew she was the traitor (which is why SC was no longer needed, so, please switch these two, grapes.. will ya?)
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What lynchbait? If that was a reference to yourself then count me out. If I had a gladiator shot I'd be using it here and now on grapes .. EVEN THOUGH I KNOW HE HAS A +2 VOTES THRESHOLD.In post 12003, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:So anyways lets lynch the obvious lynchbait and get it over with
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In post 12009, grapes wrote:Being survivalistic is what got him lynched in borderlands; he's adapted his play to that here.
I didn't intend to even bother commenting, but this was BRILLIANT it got me laughing out loud!
So, the MARTYR .. whose aim was TO GET SHOT as his ONE AND ONLY win con.. was survivalistic?? Sure, dude. Now please order me some of the same stuff you've been drinking.
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Not "positively sure" what you're asking me to confirm, but I think it's this:In post 12014, Reasonably Rational wrote:Obviously since Xk's infodump happened during this phase(please confirm A50), it's POSSIBLE that A50 didn't KNOW about the role and such at this stage in the day, but given how late in the phase it happened...that seems unlikely.
I was allied with Xk on E2 (that's when I got the info). I was allied with you on E3 (that's when I relayed the info to you). Sky then died on Season Finale 1 Exposition (i.e. E4).
It thus follows that if either of us was scum the info was already relayed to the whole scum team. I'd have had the whole on Climax 2, Episode 3 (both Exposition and Climax) to do it, and you would still have had Climax 3 to do it, and given that Varsoon gives us until the very last limi9 of the deadline to change our choices it is thus IMPOSSIBLE that Sky allied with Xk "without knowing his abilities" IF either of us was scum.
So, if -hypothetically speaking- either of A50/RR is scum then Sky allied with Xk KNOWING all about his role and how it functioned, which needs to be explained in light of it not having been a compulsory choice.
However, it's because neither of A50/RR is scum that Sky walked into that trap that got her killed NOT KNOWING that such a trap existed to begin with.
This -to me- is CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE that the RR slot is NOT SCUM. If Sky was the one "set to endgame" there's no way in hell where the "Masters of Deceit and Tactical Maneuvers" would have let her go there even if they thought it was only a 10% chance she'd get lynched.
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On Climax 2, KC was killed.In post 12014, Reasonably Rational wrote:considering that in 2, A50 already knows Xk is a gem who is planning on joining the crystal gems, and will thus be essentially unlynchable...why wouldn't the scum simply shoot him rather than whoever they shot that day(I need to look at who died that night to see if an Xk kill could have made any sense).
On Exposition 3, Yume was killed.
On Climax 3, both NC & FB were killed.
I believe Xk joined the Gems on E4 (if memory serves right, but the Gems can confirm or correct me).
However, even assuming he had joined them starting Climax 3, then it still was a big mistake to take out Yume earlier on Exposition 3. In fact, DOUBLY as much faulty. It raised the stress enough for Xk to actually join the Gems AND allowed him to use his ability to kill.. then Sky goes in willingly to ally with him knowing all this??!!!
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It could have been done with a simple "I forgot to submit an alliance" by Twin. Given that they were already very much inactive at the time it would have been accepted, and although it would not have improved their position it certainly would not have ade it worse for them either, but it would have saved Sky the trouble (which, btw did not improve Twin's situation either).In post 12025, grapes wrote:See here's where we differ. Twinwings, while not in anywhere near as good a position as skybird was, is still a number for scum. It's definitely worth trying to save any member of the scumteam that they can.
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In post 12025, grapes wrote:In the event that stress reaches +2 their options are - let twinwings slot eat a bubble. Or let skybird sweet talk her way out of it.
Regardless of whose role was more powerful (and I know you all love to ogle at BIG role pms, losing a scum is losing a scum mate) Either of them dying makes the game harder.
1- Tell that to SC
2- Xk's bubble ONLY worked on someone allied to them. None of the scum, and especially Skybird of all "had" to ally with him if they knew anything about it.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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If I'm submitting my own picks then I'm doing it WILLINGLY. On that night it was proposed that I ally with MoI and YOU (remember?). Something went wrong (a mere misunderstanding) and I ended up allying with MoI alone.In post 12034, grapes wrote:We've established that sky and xk didn't ally completely of their own accord. Keep up now.
But hold on.. I've got something interesting I picked up while reviewing my PT with MoI for the umpteenth time (this one to try and remember whom it was we were supposed to have for a 3rd).
What hit me was a post by me where I stated I wanted to lynch S_S, and my reasoning included them allying with flipped scum on E1, grapes on E2, and no one on E3. So I went back and reread both Sky's and S_S roles and it's evident S_S did not benefit from an alliance nor did they actively give anyone else benefits. HOWEVER, Sky was immune to all action while in an alliance, so that's why they allied with their own p on E1 (not knowing how they'd perform and thus how likely it would be for them to be investigated on Climax 1).
Now the ball is once again on Mastina's court, I'm afraid. Check the benefits allying with grapes gives you/him (and I'm talking about HIS effects not yours) and see if he would benefit S_S in anyway and/or would benefit FROM S_S (actually from allying with just about anyone)
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Well, I don't want to refute you argument, that's for sure, but I wanted to give you and everyone else a helping hand.In post 12039, MagnaofIllusion wrote:If someone wants to compile an alliance list for Almost (N0/D1, N1/D2, etc)
And yes, I believe the wordings of my ability could be misleading, but I thing the "cannot fail" part applies to Season Finales (in which I've allied with MoI alone once and RR/Fuzzy the second time).
I've allied with Cakez, Xk, RR, MoI, respectively in the first Season.
Then I allied with grapes, Shiro, RR+Fuzzy respectively in the 2nd Season (there was a night when all alliances failed so that explains why thee are only 3 alliances listed).
And now let me ask you all this: Do you think it was a coincidence that grapes wanted to ally with me (and MoI) on Season Finale 1, and he is now allied with Mastina on Season Finale 2, given our abilities and the time the scum team learned about them? (Obviously mine was revealed to them on E1, while Mastina's may have not been until Shadow allied with her). Food for thought.
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*Takes a water gun and sprays on Fuzzy multiple times*In post 12046, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Kill me Please.................
Happy?
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Two more things (that are NOT conclusive, but are worth noting IMHO):
1- grapes has grown passionate with the use of the term "threat to Earth" rather than scum or rubies or whatever other applicable terms. This new found fondness of repeatedly using this specific term is telling me he wants to assert indirectly he knows what the wordings of the Town win con is. Unfortunately, we've already had many Town flips and even if not the scum themselves would know they are "Threats to Earth" as proven by their flipped roles too. It's a psychological trick, but I think he got himself trapped into it instead.
2- grapes keeps insinuating alliances analysis means nothing and that he was practically forced or had no choice everytime he joined one. This -to me- is an attempt to deny responsibility for his own actions. Now even if someone was willing to buy that "I had no choice and I didn't think it through" stuff it only means grapes didn't care who he allied with and what benefits his alliance granted his allies. That's reckless play at best and -indeed- scummy play on any given day. The problem is I give grapes much more credit than this. I neither think he's reckless nor dumb, thus I'm not buying one bit of it being the case.
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The following is the relevant part of Xk's "detailed confession" to me:In post 12075, mastin2 wrote:
You say this, and I fail to understand why. Skybird, when allied with Xkfyu, would be completely immune to all actions.In post 12028, Almost50 wrote:If Sky was the one "set to endgame" there's no way in hell where the "Masters of Deceit and Tactical Maneuvers" would have let her go there even if they thought it was only a 10% chance she'd get lynched.
ALL ACTIONS. (Not just night actions. ALL. actions. Including kills.)
Now.
When the information was relayed...did you have any reason to believe Xkfyu's kill could trump a bulletproof? (Which is what that was: effectively a super fucking bulletproof.)
Because if Skybird thought SHE WAS A FUCKING BULLETPROOF, and that Xkfyu's kill power COULD NOT KILL HER...then why the fuck wouldn't Skybird be sent in place of Shadow_step? Her being sent would save her scumbuddy. The event used to kill her would fail. More than that it was a bulletproof ascetic of sorts. She couldn't die. She couldn't be targeted. Or so she thought. So how the fuck doesn't that fit with a scum mastermind? It's right in their alley!
Now, they can make a miscalculation! Assume that Skybird's immunity trumps Xkfyu's kill, and be shocked (and horrified) when it turns out, whoops! Nope it didn't. But tell me. Did you, or did you not, know that Xkfyu's kill could bypass kill immunity?
If you did not, any argument for RR not being scum instantly goes out the window.
Event action: +2 Stress minimum. Exposition phase only. I may end my alliance with all players I'm allied with, and they will be publicly removed from the game for an entire episode (something like this appears to have happened to FB). Upon doing so, I can privately decide to kill one of the removed players. This is essentially a DayVig that I can only use against someone who I'm aligned with, and only at +2 Stress or higher.
You judge for yourself if that should bypass BP.
As for me, YES.. I believed ANYONE who was allied with Xk COULD end up bubbled AND could be executed.
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here's what I told RR about it, word-for-word, letter-for-letter:In post 12076, mastin2 wrote:Tell me, Almost50. What EXACTLY did you tell RR?
He has TWO events, both requiring a minimum or +2 stress. The exposition event: he may end allinces with all of his allies, and they will all be removed from the game for an entire episode. He suspected that to have happened to FB before FB reappeared in the game. Xk can also decide to kill one of the removed players at his discretion, and privately. So; that is a DayVig that only works on his allies and only at +2 stress or higher.
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Which reminds me: Xk DID believe there to be other leftovers in the game. In fact, here's a quote from what he said:In post 12101, MagnaofIllusion wrote:I’ve bolded the above portion to highlight that as of Day 5 to show that prior to today’s early “There are no Leftovers” flailing by grapes he was posting from a standpoint that he believed there was more than one.
I am Peridot, a member of the Leftovers, which is a Third Party "faction." I put that in quotes becausemy role PM is clearly worded in such a way that I'm sure there are others, but I wasn't told who they were (though, I do believe that FB is one, based on his posts).
I've even bolded the part where he said the wording of his PM made him SURE there were other leftovers.
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@Fuzzy:
Stop being silly. The Gems are TOWN ALIGNED. If it makes a difference to you, then Xk also told me they were Town even before he joined them. He knew they were Town and suspected there was another Town faction (i.e. he didn't know about the EARTH faction).
When in doubt.. trust a flipped Townie .. erm.. more to it .. trust the INFO of a flipped Townie. I -of course- have more reason to beliee they're Town aside from relying on Xk's revelations, but I thought this might help you.
Also, Mastina is Town. I would have voted her already for her extremely scummy behaviour except for the messages she has been sending me night after night which are mod-confirmed info, so we DO have THREE conf Town alive. Live with it.
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And there goes Mastina's "ALL ABILITIES" thing. As an astute mod I would have expected her to tell thye difference even if I myself didn't notice it.In post 12134, Varsoon wrote:In post 12121, Reasonably Rational wrote:@Varsoon: when Skybird was removed from the game by a trap for clods, was she still considered in an alliance? In addition, did her protection also protect her from events?Players removed from the game are not considered to be a part of any alliance.
Skybird's protection only specifies 'abilities'--Events, notably, bypass this protection.
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So, Shiro cannot be lonely scum, and grapes can't be lonely scum either. I'm contemplating on Lynching RR just to prove Mastina wrong, but my fear is Shiro+grapes and random either NK'd or failing to keep grapes bubbled resulting is an instant scum win.
It's probably your call, random. Whom do we lynch today? I'm willing to listen to SHORT arguments from both Mastina & RR, but I'm much more likely to follow random as he has grapes fate in his hands now, and I would very much encourage him to "finish off the scumster".
I'm in no hurry though, so let's think things over before we cast votes, shall we?
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OK..
VOTE: RR
P.S. If you guys are scum, I salute you. You did play a GREAT game.
Also
@Mastina:
With or without the drawings? I mean.. I want you to tell me exactly what to post so as NOT to get banned for it. Praphrasing the text only?
If so: The first drawing (drawing #2) had no text to directly explain it, but I think it meant Mastina is ascetic (?) and cannot kill. (The text said it proved Mastina can send messages during Climax and that these messages are mod-confirmed to be true as long as they contain neither "speculation" nor alignment info.
Message #2 (drawing#3): is a list of whom Mastina allied with during the game up until Episode 7.
Message #3 (drawing #4): Mastina was telling me it takes 2 more votes to lynch her ally and that her allies on Season Finale cannot be lynched. (Disabled in LyLo, but no mention of MyLo here)
Hmm.. looks like some messages got deleted, so I'd appreciate a reminder of the missing one, but here's last night's message:
Yume (Steven Universe) DID get confirmation o Mastina's alignment in their PT (which does not count as an alliance).
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@RR:
I realize how you must feel about me voting you. However, if grapes is bubbled then I'm willing to defuse the situation with Mastina in order to give Town a better shot at winning. And now Mastina has proposed an even better plan that -if applicable- can guarantee the Town winning the game.
I mean, look at it this way: grapes in NOT a valid lynch as it is. Flipping you and the game not ending confirms Shiro as scum to me. That was my initial thought.
Now, with Mastina's plan grapes will be forced to actually step out of the game along with Shiro, thus we win already w/o even lynching you. If he refuses to go with the plan then HE eats rope and not you, and the Town wins.
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.. between random's secret plan and Mastina's declared plan I have nothing to say or do but wait!
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OK.. I've come to realize something and I'm not sure if it's spot on, so I'd need Mastina's view on this:
It's a grapes + RR scum team, and it was all a PERFECT scum theater yesterday.
The killing of Moi raised the stress to +4, which was probably what scum had counted on when they triggered their event that lowered the lynch threshold. (aside form the fact they probably expected someone else to be bubbled, and thus we would have been in LyLo anyway, but tactically they considered the case of one of them getting bubbled so the +1 lynch threshold would apply.)
RR now wanting grapes released before they get lynched is to guarantee the game doesn't end, and they are relying heavily on Mastina's blind belief that grapes is Town, AND using the fact Mastina said she would lynch grapes/Shiro if grapes refused to step out of the game along with Shiro to clear themselves.
You see, a Scum team of RR-grapes is now poised to actually WIN the game with either flip, but grapes will most likely refuse to trigger the event, and thus will be lunched. grapes flipping red will automatically get Shiro lynched the next day, and Mastina is the designated NK tonight, while either myself or random getting NK'd on teh following night guarantees RR ends game and is 1 on 1 with the other of Almost/random, i.e. winning the game.
I suggest we either lynch RR now and WITHOUT the release of grapes, or (and this is a better option) release grapes, ask him to do his thing, and when he does refuse we lynch him, but then we lynch RR tomorrow and not Shiro.
The No NK on Season Finale was simply to keep us on an even number not an odd number, which is statistically better for scum almost always.
I -of course- have not gone back a million posts ago and dug up to find links and evidence of what I'm saying, and I frankly am neither willing nor am I even capable of doing that, so I'll leave it to the one who does it best: Mastina.
@Mastina:
Just humour me, will you. Just try to entertain the idea of a grapes-RR scum duo and see if it has any potential to be the case, and then work from there. It maybe that both myself and yourself have been both right and wrong. I see the possibility now and it's precisely because of that +1 lynch threshold with the flip of MoI, whick leads me to believe a true brilliant tactician was behind both the NK and the Scum Event trigger at this precise time, coupled with my belief grapes IS scum.
Now grapes did NOT act on Season Finale because RR was allied with me, and knew I was going to follow grapes. What does elude me though is why they didn't kill themselves, thus "falsely" confirming grapes to everyone, but -like I said- I find the answer to that question in that hey wanted to keep us on an even number.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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@random:
You better get your head out of that dark hole before it's too late. You should be one of those who CAN read me to a good extent, given this is not our first, second or even third game together, and given that you even have seen Scum!Me before.
Now what makes you think I'm opportunistic? My suggestion that we lynch RR before EITHER yours or Mastina's plan were proposed? Would you have preferred a push on the BUBBLED player? Or should I have pushed the player who CANNOT be lone Scum? The other two options would have been YOU, or CONF!Town Mastina. Now tell me, which of the four would YOU have voted??
Or is it because I agreed that -if applicable- that you should release grapes and let him leave the game along with Shiro using his ability?? I mean, just because I was opposed to Mastina's views yesterday doesn't mean I should pull a "NO to whatever you say". It sounded like a good plan (and it still does, except for you saying it can't be done).
I would very much appreciate you explaining what you perceive to be scummy behaviour from me.
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Almost50 Monkey Business
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I do have a plan that works fine with me, but maybe not for you and certainly not for random.In post 12234, mastin2 wrote:In this case, I'm pretty sure no matter what plan of the currently...three or four proposed plans, that there's a risk involved regardless, unless I can figure out how to sift through them and make them not have those flaws.
If we lynch RR & random finishes off grapes we either win outright or we enter the night with a 3 v 1 setup and Shiro is confirmed Scum (again; this is from where I stand. I know my own alignment, and I know you're Town and random is a gem, so there's absolutely no flaw in this plan from my PoV).
Now here's the problem (or problems):
1- This plan guarantees a TOWN win, but if random is NK'd the Gems also lose along with Scum.
2- Although I know my own alignment, neither you nor random do for certain. I'm willing to bet you may take it on faith and put your money on me being Town still, but it looks like random is too skeptical still that he might not go down that road, and we do need his support because we can't lynch RR w/o his vote and he is the one who is supposed to eliminate grapes.
3- If Shiro is Town he may have some reservations, but if he is Scum he certainly won't go along with the proposed plan.
In other words, my plan is PERFECT, but also cannot be applied!!!
Now the alternative would be to lynch Shiro and finish off grapes, leaving RR for the 'morro. If RR are Town they'd go along with this and we will win tonight. If they're Scum they'd be opposed to it and -once again- there's not much we can do here.
The third option is we No Lynch and we execute grapes. The obvious flaw here is -although unlikely- if it's a Shiro+RR duo, in which case we lose instantly.
I have now come to drop all reads and rely solely on mechanics with all probabilities equal, meaning there are only 3 clears from my PoV (You as confirmed by Yume and reconfirmed via the message Varsoon relayed to me, random as confirmed Gem and alignment by MoI and previously other Gems, and myself because I have the PM telling me I'm Cool Kid Buck Dewey aligned with Earth). So, I'm considering 3 single scum options and 3 "tag team" possibilities, mounting up to 6 possibilities in all, and examining the best way to guarantee they can't achieve majority.
All I can tell you now is whatever route we decide to walk; a grapes execution is key to the Town win, unless you want to take it all on faith.. blind faith that is.
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