New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[Kagami]

If smith and dunn are both town, then we're looking at probably SAD-Jester-Parama. Does that seem plausible?

[Kagami]

actually hang on.

it would mean SAD and Parama went for a mass-distancing play, whereas Jester went and decided to put them both in his town pile (1064, 1911).

this seems kind of ??? to me.

Well, if jester is scum and put ~any~ scum in his scum pile, it would have to be smith. That makes townsmith scumjester seem pretty unlikely since it implies jester took a townread-on-buddies approach from a heavily scumread position.

[Kagami]

I have to go over SAD again, if someone wants to highlight any particularly interesting someone-else -> SAD interactions they remember, that would be nice as otherwise I'm ctrl-f-ing "SAD" in isos, which.

[Kagami]

which is imprecise and laborious.

[Kagami]

Kagami, is 4620 something you've signed off on or is that something Dunn came up with entirely independently of what we've been talking about?

I do not fail to notice that if we're in the Dunn/Jester pair/SAD pair gamestate - which I'm starting to believe is increasingly more likely because MDS and Parama are sending town signals, even though they're slight ones - the end result of that plan is that the two town/town pairs are lynched immediately.

He posted something similar in the PT. I haven't really read it carefully even now.

[Kagami]

In general, I don't think our pair making it to/near endgame is a particularly good idea.

There's reason to doubt dunn's alignment, though I think the perceived lack of insight into how scum might be behaving isn't really scum-indicative. I've asked him frequently about his assessment of what I'm thinking and how he interprets particular things I've said, and his interpretations of my intentions are quite wrong where I think they'd be more accurate if he knows my alignment (and there's every reason for him to appear to be on the same page as me as scum).

The bigger issue is that doubt regarding my alignment makes it more difficult to execute things.

[Kagami]

I'm kind of being lazy here because I have work to do, but my inclination is to go with my original plan, with my death first and let sad-scout take charge if dunn flips town, piesmith take charge if dunn flips scum.

Id say lynch sad-scout first in the case of dunn-scum, but generally things to consider in further lynch order is to first lynch people who are A) likely to resist the plan even as town, B) likely to be in a scum-scum pairing, C) Might give unexpected info with their pair's flip (e.g. MDS flipping scum instead of Jester)

[Kagami]

telling what?

[Kagami]

I feel like a lot of people are missing the point here.

I'm requesting on no uncertain terms that if I leave (before any one else flips) and dunn flips town, the rest of the town follows SAD-scout, and that in the case where Dunn flips scum, town follows piesmith.

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Anybody countering with kagami is scum are stupid, and if they really believe that, then they should go along with me on this for obvious reasons.

[Kagami]

I'm requesting on no uncertain terms that if I leave (before any one else flips) and dunn flips town, the rest of the town follows SAD-scout, and that in the case where Dunn flips scum, town follows piesmith.

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Are you saying if Parama is town or?

If Parama is town then the scum team is most likely Dunn/mhsmith/MDS.

I guess replace Jester if you want instead of MDS it doesn't really matter much.

I'll take this as a non-objection.

[Kagami]

O, dunn-smith.

Why do you think dunn is scum with smith?

[Kagami]

If we assume dunn is scum, then he started out with a townread on smith that turned around at about 1600ish in the main thread for kind of silly reasons, and he maintained a position of heavy suspicion on smith from there out.

In the PT, he generates further reasons for smith-scum, including a 2433 quote which he says he reads as smith justifying scum fighting their lynch to the end while town suicides. He continues in that direction including a "let's see how he reacts to my vote."

I'd say that HS-Parama is also very likely town given dunn-scum, but piesmith seems somewhat more confidently so to me.

[Kagami]

of note in PT "smith looks like obvious scum to me."

[Kagami]

mulling it over.
I'm fine with the "if dunn is scum" path.
but your proposed "if dunn is town" path is a beeline to a town loss because no way is there no scum in sad/scout

If we're town, then scout is townreading us for what reason?

Smith spent a lot of today positioning himself for kagami-scum/kagami-discrediting, but did so in an interaction that would make scout town as well.

So that makes SAD the likely scummo in that pair, and I don't really see any compelling connection between SAD and smith/pie or jester/MDS.

[Kagami]

Kagami why are you assuming I'm going to flip scum? And pushing something weird/contrary to what I've been saying if we're town

While you've been a lovely partner, it's disappointing that we still don't seem to understand each other. I'm afraid this may be our last dance~

[Kagami]

I've read your posts dunn, the problem is that if you're town and haven't yet flipped town, there's not a lot of reason to address your preferred flowchart, since it has the inherent weakness of potentially coming from scum. It would be slightly more compelling if we were invariably lynch #2 in it, but we are not.

I like my idea better in part because it's simple and succinct, and given it I'd place the 3rd-person EV at above the baseline 57% and certainly above the 40% EV we have presently.

The jester replace is a bit interesting, since we'll at least get some feedback on MDS, but I don't know how much I really care unless we get someone particularly exciting.

[Kagami]

Hmm, EV of this game is 43/68. Surprisingly townsided.

No Dunn, I'm fine with giving your position credence upon knowing you're town (and I think you're probably town already, so shruggles), but I don't think you can command the position of leadership you seem to expect prior to that being proven even if you are town, which is what your plan entails.

[Kagami]

I hate smith posts. All of them.

[Kagami]

Well maybe not all of them, but I've come to dread their appearance in general.

[Kagami]

Pie, are you around~~~?

[Kagami]

I think scum attacking their buddy's partner is actually a pretty good scum move in this setup, but I don't think dunn did that.

[Kagami]

Hi smith, how about you produce a reasonably likely configuration of scum from {sad, scout, jester, MDS, parama, HS}, and explain why it's likely?

That would be a great way of demonstrating your towniness.

[Kagami]

Great, smith.

As an additional challenge, let's put a 3-name limit on said configuration, a 400-word limit on why they're scum together (spoilered/linked quotes not included), and a 0-word limit on how to play mafia.

[Kagami]

What's the point of 1672 if SAD is scum?

[Kagami]

I also think 1721 is more likely town than not.

[Kagami]

If we want to entertain the sad-parama crossbus theory, which I don't think is correct, then parama was positioning for it pretty far back, at least at 1897.

[Kagami]

2170-2172 seems a little unlikely if parama and smith are scum, but not jester/mds. Doesn't make sense to be incriminatingly belligerent about someone being exactly right when there is already no chance of anyone listening to him.

[Kagami]

Tigers appear to have eaten a longer post, but tl;dr is that 1216 is an interesting post given the gamestate at the time.

[Kagami]

I have no idea what that prior post means, but I don't think dunn-smith is likely.

[Kagami]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

I believe we're still in agreement, but I'm still thinking through things. There's also a good argument for waiting for a Jester replacement if that's going to happen.

[Kagami]

MDS, what all does jester say about smith prior to Dec 7?

[Kagami]

My past self is awesome, I see I already followed that trail.

[Kagami]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

[Kagami]

more importantly, jester requires replacement.

[Kagami]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

Do you mean 104? 106 was mine. It was Dec 7, 8:40 am (GMT).

Then he reread smith and decided he was scummo #3 is 2 hours. I guess that's not impossible, and fits with having come to a t-t conclusion on HS-parama about 1 hour in. Kind of surprising he wouldn't mention his smith conclusion.

[Kagami]

Fuck me it's MDS/Dunn/mhsmith isn't it.

Read smith's iso and his interactions with the MDS/jester pair. He has a lukewarm scumread on jester all game long while jumping in whenever possible to deter people from going after the pair on the basis of an MDS scumread. That's how a buddy with jester behaves, not one with MDS.

Secondly, Dunn and Smith aren't partners. I'm not sure how you generated that connection, but it's not there.

[Kagami]

Most likely non-dunn group (and I'm inclined to think dunn town if for no reason other than his insistence that he gets to decide something if I suicide) remains Smith-Jester-Parama to my mind.

[Kagami]

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

[Kagami]

"I don't like this, must be scum" happens all the time.

[Kagami]

The path of non-suicide leaves a good chance of my being lynched if the first lynch is a miss, so I don't see it as wildly different.

There remains the chance that dunn is actually scum.

[Kagami]

your SAD configuration includes someone from my pair, so SAD wouldn't live.

[Kagami]

If you want to agree with my 4286, go for it. If you have something to add, go ahead.

[Kagami]

You asked me if it's a reasonable read, I said it happens regardless of reasonableness. Why are you asking me to support your 4913 by agreeing with myself?

[Kagami]

I care only about the following: Kagami suicides, dunn flips town. Which pair makes it to endgame?

If you say "Not Sad-scout," (or as a corollary, HS-Parama pair), then I would like to evaluate whether your proposal makes more sense than sad-scout lives. This means some triplet of scum chosen from {pie, smith, jester, mds, sad, scout}

[Kagami]

4110

[Kagami]

What parama said there is an accurate description of what I did. She claimed she misread what happened, which is not a crazy impossibility.

[Kagami]

Well, one of those unlikely things would have to be happening if your pair is indeed T-T, so what do you think is the most likely?

[Kagami]

At this point I just want smith to die for his reckless wasting of precious words.

[Kagami]

At this point I just want smith to die for his reckless wasting of precious words.

well at least pushing me would be better than suiciding.

I've already said that you die when Dunn flips town and pie agreed. Unfortunately, it looks like parama-pair has to die second.

[Kagami]

I found the awkward distancing from parama slightly more entertaining than this latest route to smith- survival, though.

[Kagami]

Working from home today, so kiddies preventing much posting.

I maintain that you're giving smith a free pass for no good reason, pie. Could you spend 30m at some point looking at his interactions with the current lead scumspects -- {SAD, Jester, Parama}?

@HS: Dunn being scum with jester doesn't makes sense to me primarily because jester put ME as the scummo in our pair, where making the accurate read on our pair would be much, much safer (and I doubt jester-scum would be making a high-friction play given his expected involvement). Dunn-scum requesting they be the T-T survivors when they're actually T-T doesn't seem terribly unlikely to me, since he'd expect to flip soon.

[Kagami]

I don't think 146 is much different from any "Found the first scum" post, why is it town?

[Kagami]

The scum motivation is to appear to be scumhunting. The town motivation is also to appear to be scumhunting. I don't really think there's any other meaningful interpretation to that, and I doubt it's a next level "I'm going to go out on a limb as town to bait some kind of trap / generate content," like you're suggesting. In that case, he'd have likely commented more on the whole shadow scum-slip craziness instead of just bailing on the thread.

[Kagami]

Regardless of his alignment, he did not realize how silly the post was. If he is town, he thought it was a reasonable read. If he is scum, he thought his town-self would have made a read like that.

[Kagami]

If smith is town, I would kill dunn if we're still around.

[Kagami]

I'm saying that he did apply conscious thought to that read and thought it was reasonable, which he would do regardless of alignment. Scum make objectively bad arguments all the time, just as town do, and they usually believe they're right to make them.

The 1088 series is interesting, I agree.

[Kagami]

I think you're taking this at a very superficial level if you think there's no chance scum-jester generated that post.

[Kagami]

If you think that means jester is town, then just continue on with all the rest of the rereads.

[Kagami]

Allow me a further discredit then:

Your model is terrible if you believe all our even most scum-posts carry scum motivation.

That said, I do like the review since it involves highlighting posts I've long forgotten existed.

[Kagami]

Most scum-posting is made with little more thought than: "this is something I can say that doesn't implicate my partners, I shall say it. "

[Kagami]

Yay. Let's lynch piesmith.

[Kagami]

Not really,but maybe really. I'll have to go through parama again.

[Kagami]

New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball

PLAYERLIST

• Gentlemen
  1. Gamma Emerald, who was
     Town

     Gentleman
     , has
     left
     in
     first dance
     .
     
  2. Dunnstral
     
  3. Sickofit1138, who was
     Town

     Gentleman
     , has
     left
     in
     pre-dance
     .
     
  4. Ser Arthur Dayne
     
  5. The_Jester
     
  6. Shadow_step, who was
     Town

     Gentleman
     , has
     left
     in
     first dance
     .
     
  7. Human Sequencer
     
  8. mhsmith0
     
  9. Cerberus v666, who was
     Town

     Gentleman
     , has
     left
     in
     intermission
     .
  
  
• Ladies
  1. pieguyn
     
  2. MariaR, who was
     Town

     Lady
     , has
     left
     in
     first dance
     .
     
  3. Parama
     
  4. Vedith, who was
     Town

     Lady
     , has
     left
     in
     first dance
     .
     
  5. Nahdia, who was
     Town

     Lady
     , has
     left
     in
     intermission
     .
     
  6. MiniDeathStar
     
  7. inspectorscout
     
  8. Kagami
  
  
• Pairs
  1. The_Jester - MiniDeathStar
     
  2. Human Sequencer - Parama
     
  3. Ser Arthur Dayne - inspectorscout
     
  4. Cerberus v666 - Nahdia
     
  5. mhsmith0 - pieguyn
     
  6. Gamma Emerald - Vedith
     
  7. Dunnstral - Kagami
     
  8. Shadow_step - MariaR

Vote Counts and other events

Human Sequencer asks Parama
The_Jester asks MiniDeathStar
MiniDeathStar accepts The_Jester
Gamma Emerald asks MariaR
Human Sequencer asks Vedith
Cerberus v666 asks Nahdia
Ser Arthur Dayne asks inspectorscout
Shadow_step asks MariaR
Parama accepts Human Sequencer
inspectorscout accepts Ser Arthur Dayne
Dunnstral asks MariaR
Nahdia accepts Cerberus v666
mhsmith0 asks pieguyn
pieguyn accepts mhsmith0
Gammr Emerald asks Vedith
Dunnstral asks Kagami
Vedith accepts Gamma Emerald
Kagami accepts Dunnstral
MariaR accepts Shadow_step
1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | Vedith leaves | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.21 | Shadow_step leaves
2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | Human Sequencer leaves | 2.9

Spoiler: Setup

Setup

• 3 Mafia Gentlemen/Ladies
  vs
  14 Town Gentlemen/Ladies, Open setup
  
• The game will include four phases,
  pre-dance
  ,
  first dance
  ,
  intermission
  , and
  second dance
  .
  Pre-dance
  will last 8 days,
  intermission
  will last 2 days, and each
  dance
  will be 8 days.
  
• One player will be confirmed as aligned with
  Town
  at game start.
  
• During the
  pre-dance
  , a
  Gentleman
  can ask a
  Lady
  to the dance in thread. Each
  Lady
  can accept only one dance proposal.
  
• At the end of the
  pre-dance
  , any player who doesn't have a dance partner will be asked to leave the dance. (death)
  
• Each dance pair will then become Lovers, and they will be given a private topic to discuss the game.
  
• During the
  dances
  , normal nightless lynch mechanics will take over. Every lynch will reset the deadline to 8 days. If the Mafia makes up 50% or more of the remaining players at any point, Mafia immediately wins. If all of the Mafia are lynched, then Town wins. If the game runs out of time and at least one Mafia is still alive, then Mafia wins.
  
• First dance
  will end if there are 12 players or fewer left alive or deadline is reached. During the
  intermission
  , Mafia may secretly force one of the dance pairs to leave.
  Second dance
  will then begin, and continue until the game's end.
  
• Also, at any point during the
  dance
  , a player may voluntarily leave (he/she dies and his/her alignment flips), which forces his/her partner to leave as well.

Spoiler: Ruleset

FakeGod's Mafia RuleSet

• ONE: FUNDAMENTALS
  • All site-wide rules apply. Read and respect them.
    
  • There is no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, backup-moderator, or fellow players. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • Be courteous and respectful to all your fellow players and the moderating team.
    
  • Play to your Win Condition.
• TWO: DANCE PHASE
  • Votes must be
    bolded
    or they shall not be counted. Abbreviating someone's name is acceptable, so long as I can discern who you were voting for without trouble.
    
  • Unvoting is not required, but is much appreciated by the mods. If you control more than one vote, Unvoting will unvote all of your votes, unless you specify which vote you unvote.
    
  • Once you have reached a simple majority (half of all living players plus one) that person will be lynched.
• THREE: INTERMISSION PHASE
  • Any role or faction with night abilities may choose to use them by PM-ing the mod with their choice.
    
  • If no action is received, no action will be taken. All actions received after the deadline has passed will not be valid.
• FOUR: CAPITAL OFFENSES
  • Do not quote your Role PM or any private communication (either real or fabricated) with the moderator, co-moderator, or backup-moderator. Paraphrasing your Role PM is acceptable.
    
  • There is to be no personal communication outside the forum postings (regarding this game) unless your role specifically allows it.
    
  • The following is a list of outlawed shenanigans:
    • Using invisible text, codes, cryptography, etc.
      
    • Editing your posts (if you have the power to do so)
      
    • Insulting other players
      
    • Quoting any PTs you may have access to
  • If any of these offenses are committed, I have the right to force-replace you from the game or modkill you.
• FIVE: MISCELLANEOUS
  • Feel free to address me in-thread, but if there is a large egregious mistake please PM me. Small matters like errors in the votecount can be posted in-thread.
    
  • I have the final say on any issue. I reserve the right to force-replace and modkill at my will.
    
  • This is a game. Have fun, and keep the game fun for other people. Stay civilized, please.
    
  • I have the right to edit this RuleSet at any time.

Spoiler: Role PMs

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Lady FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-eighth annual New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball You are aligned with Town ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Gentleman FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-eighth annual New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball You are aligned with Town ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Lady FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-eighth annual New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball You are aligned with Mafia ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ Gentleman FakeGod, you are hereby cordially invited to the three hundred and fifty-eighth annual New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball You are aligned with Mafia ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾ ❁ ∾

There's almost no chance Dunn is scum. Will go over it when I'm not mobile, but the tl;dr is HS-interactions and his indignant reaction to being ignored today is beyond what I suspect his scum self is capable.

[Kagami]

Oops.

[Kagami]

I still think it's just smith-jester, and don't see any terribly compelling reason to believe otherwise (and even less to believe that piesmith isn't the correct lynch). If smith is town, I'd be inclined to say jester pair is town, so I'm not averse to leaving.

Smith opportunistically attacking the team-call yesterday makes me think I'm not wrong though.

[Kagami]

Thing about dunn is that if he's scum, he does this really mild show of suspecting me in the ~1500 area, including making some connections consistent with that mindset, specifically HS-kagami scumpair (1378-1575). HS is someone I'd especially be expecting him not to be attacking even indirectly due to his being town-attached-to-partner.

The vast majority of his iso is pretty underwhelming (1733 jumps out as icky-feeling), but the overall feeling I get is that he's upset that no one is listening to him while he actually believes people should be listening to him. I don't think he has any particularly sketchy interactions with parama, and if I've missed something, feel free to point it out.

As far as connections to a possibly-scum jester are concerned, I remain highly skeptical that scum-jester put me as scummy and dunn as towny in his assessment of our pair if it's in fact the opposite. If he wanted us to be the rule of three correct read, he would likely just call us both nullscum or something like that.

[Kagami]

I think sad scout is town regardless, though I'd like a bit to review that before committing to a suicide pact.

[Kagami]

Pretty sure my tone has never been townread.

[Kagami]

I revoke any interest in world where jester-mds survives.

[Kagami]

A world*

[Kagami]

Who's the scum, Kagami?

Still Jester and Smith, in all likelihood.

[Kagami]

Meh, I don't think I'll ever have time to really dig into it this week. Kids are off school, so I'm "working from home" while watching them, which is basically impossible.

So sure, suicide pact is on.

[Kagami]

omg, hi.

Is it suicide time? Probably not for a few RL days.

[Kagami]

My biggest issue right now is that if jester is scum, I'd feel really terrible if he won.

[Kagami]

I'm glad you're continuing your pair's fine tradition of pity-party-posting.

This is the part of the game where if you're town, you should be trying very very hard to secure a win. If you're certain that MDS is town, then that means constructing some solid argument for why at least one of SAD-Scout is scum.

[Kagami]

ok, I'm back. Let's actually read this game.

[Kagami]

I had no days off from work last week, but the kids were off school.

[Kagami]

for the record: mds/jester is the goto endgame pair if kagami & arthur are both scum and pie/smith is the goto endgame pair if dunn is scum. can we all agree on this?

i honestly don't think there's any possible scumteam where one of these isn't true

I don't think dunn is scum, folks.

[Kagami]

VC 2.8 is interesting, I feel like that's where there should concern on the side of scum that Parama is pretty likely to go down.

[Kagami]

Worth noting: the kagami-plan during the Second dance would have led to a town loss if Dunn is town, and a town win if Dunn is scum. At the time, scum had no reason to believe it wouldn't be executed (especially as deadline drew close).

[Kagami]

WHERE THE HELL ARE ALL THE SCUM IF JESTER/MDS IS A TOWN/TOWN PAIR AND PARAMA IS ALSO TOWN???

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON

sad/kagami/smith, i'm telling you

All three town here?

[Kagami]

I feel like there's too much of parama agreeing with MDS's minor sentiments for her to be terribly likely scum.

[Kagami]

4620

Condensed Dunn plan:

Lynch HS-Parama

If HS-scum (irrelevant if Dunn is scum)
---Lynch jester
---If there's scum
------Re-evaluate
---Else
------suicide

If Parama scum (What he considers likely)
---Lynch SAD/scout
---If Scout-scum
------Re-eval piesmith (to town, presumable)
---If SAD-scum
------Lynch piesmith
---Else
------Dunn doesn't seem to consider this possibility

If HS-Parama town
---Lynch Piesmith -> lynch jester-mds -> not sure what next (of course, we'd have lost at piesmith lynch)


Of note is the significant amount of text concerning the HS-Parama town circumstance. Also of note is that there's no consideration of Parama-scum -> SAD/Scout T-T; implying to my mind that Dunn-scum -> scum in sad-scout, and probably SAD in that circumstance.

[Kagami]

Seems unlikely to me that in all that effort, he accidentally neglected a condition he would believe will arrive.

[Kagami]

Why don't you think scout is scum, SAD?

[Kagami]

I have the following reasons to think Dunn is town:

-Effortful plans made under the belief he'd be killed coupled with frustration that people were ignoring them.
-Parama lynch plan has Dunn lynched and piesmith declared T-T if Dunn is scum
-Somewhat realish-seeming paranoia linking me-scum to HS-scum
-Dunn plan has a hole where sadscout is T-T, while continuing in other directions (Not valid if dunn is scum with sadscout)
-Actively encouraged me to vote HS-parama in PT

Reasons to think he's scum:

-Generally underwhelming play
-Decided HS-town but didn't seem to really re-evaluate the vote on hs-parama
-Scumread on me didn't have any real follow-up despite my not giving him an especially great reason to townread me
-Would be pretty surprising if there were no bus votes on Parama, especially if Parama expected a lot of fire from the PT reaction HS mentioned.

Reasons to hope he's scum:

-I told Pie I was going to suicide and I would feel pretty terrible if I don't and dunn is actually scum

[Kagami]

No, I don't really care for anyone's opinion on those things. If people had anything worthwhile to add, I'm sure they would.

The second thing is not an argument against him. 4876 would produce a town win if Dunn is scum, so if Dunn is scum, it would mean parama made that post on the assumption he'd flip before Dunn flips, or that he'd be able to backtrack out of it reasonably easily. I don't think the former is the case, because there was a pretty common consensus that Dunn-scum -> piesmith town, so scum would have been in a lot of trouble if I had suicided. In that case, I think Parama would have done more to encourage his own lynch/suicide bombing.

[Kagami]

VOTE: Jester-MDS

[Kagami]

SAD-scout seems reasonably possible, tbqh, but I don't see how that lynch actually gets executed. We don't really deserve to win that scenario anyway.

[Kagami]

V/LA until January 8th. Awesome.

[Kagami]

Suicide please.

Scum dunn-jester or dunn-mds will just coast to endgame
They either lynch the T_T pair or stall in a way that town autoloses after the 8 days.

I was pointing out MDS's V/LA. I will be here until deadline.

[Kagami]

Why not just lynch scum dunn-jester or scum dunn-mds?

[Kagami]

There's no way both scum are putting their votes on me/inspector first like that right?

I agree!

[Kagami]

I mostly want the 8 days, tbqh.

[Kagami]

Do you think the Dunn-SAD/Scout back and forth today is a crossbus, jester?

Why would the last scum want to be left with you-MDS who are so strongly townreading each other?

[Kagami]

I guess the sad/scout scummo could just be anticipating my suicide and want credit for voting dunn in that case.

[Kagami]

Pretty sure you wanted pie dead way back then.

[Kagami]

I don't see why it's impossible that MDS is scum. If there is scum in each of our pairs, I think they could get away with just lynching you guys today (or pressuring you into suicide) rather than worry about distancing in the absence of the suicide pact.

[Kagami]

Alright, would have lost with the plan anyway, gg sad.

Hilariously, HS killed the only scummo, but we'd have won if I suicided that period.

I don't understand why jester and mds joined this game specifically to play together, and then didn't play.

[Kagami]

HS had solid reads.

[Kagami]

Sorry pie, I played terribly.

[Kagami]

Haven't finished the dead pt, but a really important aspect of this setup is that it is very very very hard to lynch scum if there's any indecision or apathy in the town. We were seriously punished by that. I think pie is blaming herself there when she wasn't really the problem.

The "correct" strategy is to no lynch day 1, then randomly decide which pair survives, then chain lynches around that, which gives a very town sided winrate of around 60%. The reason scum have been winning these is that when the decision of who is lynched is not random, scum's ability to manipulate the lynch is very strong.

I hope that in future iterations, there will be a no lynch day 1, and people will generally play to follow the town-driven wagon rather then everybody following their own agenda, throwing their vote whichever way it blows.

[Kagami]

My own inability to play around Christmas also factored in, I felt like I only ever got 2 days per period

[Kagami]

Sorry pie, I played terribly.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8688304
Did you forget you were voting them or something? Such a weird contrast there.

Not sure what post you mean, but it looks like my phone butchered one. I meant that lynching sad was impossible without mds.

[Kagami]

I thought it was scout, btw :<

[Kagami]

I did want to lynch sad scout, but that was impossible. I wanted to just suicide, but I couldn't bear the thought of scum-jester-mds winning like that.

[Kagami]

It was terrible on my part,and I feel bad more for breaking the promise to pie than about losing.

[Kagami]

Why? I got the impression you consider yourself a strong player.

[Kagami]

The only votes by town on scum were the two on parama and the two lylo votes.

[Kagami]

You can call me that if you like, but HS as scum-MVP is pretty laughable.

[Kagami]

I feel bad for sickofit who got absolutely brushed aside as people rushed to get pairings

agreed on that front fwiw

He only posted twice, so I doubt he felt invested enough to really be disappointed.

[Kagami]

HS requested SAD gets lynched while leaving. HS correctly pointed out reasons for jester-town that did heavily influence my thinking. HS played a fine game.

[Kagami]

Kagami I enjoyed our pt, though

I had fun this game, and the PT wasn't bad. I played poorly, but sometimes that happens.

The only thing I really feel bad about is not suiciding as promised.

[Kagami]

I actually thought the game would be over by christmas when I signed up, and the rule change hurt me quite a bit, but I can see how this is probably much easier in general.

[Kagami]

Re: regfan post

#3 isn't as clearcut as you're making it seem, because execution is indeed an issue. The logic that pie's pair, from her perspective, was unlikely to contain scum so suicide is never the answer has the corollary that you shouldn't vote your own pair either. Because the game is always in evens and scum isn't going to self-vote for you, it takes an overwhelming majority of the other players to vote a pair to achieve a lynch. This is exacerbated by the fact that scum win when there's no lynch.

In the situation where pie suicided, with 8 players alive, it would take a unanimous town-vote to actually lynch SAD or Dunn without suicide or self-voting. While in a world of EVs or allowing confirmable randomness, that kind of cohesion is possible, in practice if you can get so many town-aligned players to vote in the same place, you're probably going to win anyway.

[Kagami]

I agree that IC should set up the pairs, but I don't think that would have worked out so cleanly. Lots of people want to pair with specific other people.

[Kagami]

Re: regfan post

#3 isn't as clearcut as you're making it seem, because execution is indeed an issue. The logic that pie's pair, from her perspective, was unlikely to contain scum so suicide is never the answer has the corollary that you shouldn't vote your own pair either. Because the game is always in evens and scum isn't going to self-vote for you, it takes an overwhelming majority of the other players to vote a pair to achieve a lynch. This is exacerbated by the fact that scum win when there's no lynch.

In the situation where pie suicided, with 8 players alive, it would take a unanimous town-vote to actually lynch SAD or Dunn without suicide or self-voting. While in a world of EVs or allowing confirmable randomness, that kind of cohesion is possible, in practice if you can get so many town-aligned players to vote in the same place, you're probably going to win anyway.

It really is that simple though, people should never be instantly suiciding, it actually provides minimal information to the town while having a very high likelihood of resulting in a T-T death. You're much better of trying to get a lynch go through first, if you notice that there's some serious resistance for a particular pair receiving votes and notice that there's not a great deal of logic presented by the players refraining from voting then sure there's a higher chance that pair is scum. And if it comes to the point where a lynch on the slot is completely impossible due to lack of cohesion then suicide is a potential consideration but at least then you have a lot of alignment indicative tells from how players are acting with their votes or lack of votes upon the flip. Basing everything on "I want this pair to suicide now, X pair suicides" minimiilaises the alignment indicative tells in the thread while assisting the scum in doing the dirty work for them.

If town play this early/middle game strictly like a normal mafia game with no talk of suicide or T-T pair hunting town win this almost every time, I explained it to Pie earlier but consider the following;

Do you gain more information from a T-T pair suicide or being lynched? The answer is clearly the latter.
Do you gain more information from a T-S pair suicide or being lynched? The answer again is the latter.

That means it's never optimal to just flat out suicide, a lynch should at least be attempted first.

What you're describing is exactly what went down, though. Lynches were pushed and not achieved, then suicide happened/was suggested. The wagons that were hard to push were not on scum, every wagon is hard to push in a game of evens where there's no motivation to vote one's lover.

There was alignment-indicative behavior in the pushes, sure, but they were overshadowed by the question marks in the game. I was looking at the Parama VCs in lylo at one point thinking "Once HS joined in, they must have expected parama to go down, why isn't there any further movement in players' positions?" But the SAD-Dunn possibility didn't seem more likely than one of scum-Jester/MDS simply not being there.

By Day 2, I don't see any strong route to victory other than my having been more willing to suicide and simply doing it immediately after the discussion with pie while the parama-wagon stalled.

Re: the IC thing, it's not about people not getting the pairs they want. That simply won't happen. If nahdia assigned them randomly, jester-mds would have paired anyway. Shadow-Maria probably would have too. You can't just say "we'll lynch you if you don't listen to nahdia" because we theoretically can't burn that many lynches (though in effect we lynched that way anyway). As it was, we asked Maria to pair with non-shadow and she did it anyway.

[Kagami]

The setup is fine, it's a beautiful thing that it's so numerically townsided but town is 0-3.

I'm not going to keep repeating myself, since apparently the theorists disagree, but I will conclude with this: If everyone is Hated in the next large dance, town will likely win.

[Kagami]

What would you have done when Jester-MDS and Shadow-Maria ignored your pairing?

[Kagami]

Keep in mind, it's probably optimal to have the IC randomly assign pairs, no lynch day 1, then randomly lynch if the mod lets you cheat out a system of provable randomness.

[Kagami]

It's just that no one will ever allow you to execute that, because people are playing not just to win.

[Kagami]

I guess you'd just have to ask everyone if they have some strong attachment to a specific player, require some kind of evidence of that, and just work that into your pairs decision.

[Kagami]

I think you'd have to allow for non-randomness. Have people banter for a bit and make the decision of how the pairings will be in a way that no town-aligned player will have a reason to be upset about (other than possibly the one left out).

[Kagami]

Something to really keep in mind here is you guys finished a 16 player game in just under a month, that's almost unheard of so there's no way with a straight face you can tell me that you genuinely tried to get those 6-7 pairs lynched before their suicides.

Given scum win with 2 pairs alive at endgame, what was the game's maximum length?

[Kagami]

8 pairs, 2 live => 5 lynches + 1 NK => 8 x 5days + 2 days => 42 days excluding pre-dance.

Vedith suicided 5 days early, pie suicided 3 days early, everything else was very near deadline, yielding a 32 day game.