New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[pieguyn]

I dont think that cefb hinted at being more active, but there is no point in discussing that. In fact, i didnt push arthur as scum to try and bait the nightkill as well.

see: 3668

[pieguyn]

Why i think of it as a scumtell is because its forced, and there is no reason for an experienced townie to say it. Its like scum often ask in their pt what their lovers think of their attackers and their scumbuddies

there's nothing forced about it. I feel almost certain something like that is just SAD's manner of speaking, and I think if your argument is "there's no reason he would say it" your argument is weak.

Your explaination is fine, but if you are the most townread/active pair there should be SOMETHING that crosses your mind, no? You also have no way of knowing if the IC is paired with scum, or if scum try to wifom by not killing the IC, or they kill someone else to silence them. There are so many other possibilities that you ignore - and so did he.

those all might be possible, but the fact of the matter is that all of those courses of action are significantly less optimal than just killing the IC pair if both are town. whether you want to entertain them or not really just comes down to play style - I speculated on a lot of possibilities for who might die in the PT overnight, but that's because that's me and I wanted to speculate on them. you thought about all of these things, but that's you. someone else might just work under the assumption that Cv666 would die overnight and not bother to consider other possibilities unless they had reason to believe they would occur, and this would be perfectly acceptable because if Cv666 is town that was by far the most likely result and the most optimal play for scum - this is what I imagine SAD was thinking, and I don't see anything incongruous about it.

I just think that a major part of the progression - not necessarily the emotion - was fake.

OK. what, specifically, read as fake?

[pieguyn]

This should be plenty.

I think you're really tone-deaf if you can't read mhsmith's posts around that range and see why I have reason to question if they're actually coming from scum.

[pieguyn]

Pedit: contrary, i mostly read on tone.you have reason to question if he was scum because he actually towned up for a bit there. I just dont think its nearly enough to 180 your reads and going from 'i cant believe you can be town' to 'dont lynch this today or tomorrow'

read my posts

i've already clarified that i don't have an explicit town read on him and that he's someone who i'd consider *lynching* after Jester/Parama. i just feel confident that Jester and Parama are scum at this point, while i have no idea how i feel about him, so yes, i do want to lynch Jester/Parama first.

[pieguyn]

And if both are town, we lost already. If even one of them is town, we are at lylo and you can easily talk your way out.

do you disagree with either read? if so, why?

[pieguyn]

@mhsmith/pieguy did you guys discuss things overnight?

not really. the most substantive discussion we had over the night phase was mhsmith hoping we'd die and us agreeing that Cv666's strategy was stupid.

[pieguyn]

hmm

[pieguyn]

if you read my posts since daystart, you'll find that I've at least already answered that from my end.

p-edit: @Dunn re 3889

[pieguyn]

now, for you: how do you possibly justify keeping Jester alive?

has he done something town or?

[pieguyn]

I do think parama's agression and just posting whatever is on her mind is townie, although i kind of dislike her case on arthur.

"aggression" and "posting whatever is on their mind" aren't good reasons to seriously town read someone at this point in the game.

[pieguyn]

Saying you want to lynch a bunch of other people before your pair doesn't exactly inspire confidence. I thought you wanted to lynch Shadow because you wanted to discuss with Kagami? There seems to be a mutual lack of that

for one, Kagami has already commented on my reads and said we were mostly on the same page.

we don't seem to strongly disagree on anyone besides HS, and we seem to agree on Parama regardless, so... /shrug

don't really know what your point here is

[pieguyn]

Dunn fits with parama and Jester, I think.

their reads feel off and forced and 3910 is a typical scum sort of "ignoring the motivation someone posts in the game thread to invent some cosmic motivation for someone's posts" push.

[pieguyn]

I think scum are largely hoping to win this game through sheer force of will at this point.

[pieguyn]

I think we've had more than enough interactions for you to sort me. If pie isn't satisfied with my reads because they are based on agression and careless posting, why should you have a null-read on a rather active poster who has had multiple interactions with you and with others without her making a problem over it?

you're not scum for that, ftr, that was me attempting to explain to you why your read doesn't hold water.

Isnt that cherrypicking from her side? When dunn calls her out on that, she throws out a scumread on him. Is that townie?

I don't know what you're even talking about here; the issue I had with 3910 is that he invented some reason to scum read me for "making up reasons to lynch other pairs", despite the fact that my progressions on Jester, Parama, and mhsmith have all been documented in-thread already.

[pieguyn]

I'll lay out some information for the rest of the.... well for you guys

HS-Parma pair won't push (and barely interact) with the mhsmith-pieguyn pairing

And they both hard pushing Shadow

Relevant

Dunn/Parama... hmmm

[pieguyn]

thing with this game is *if* I'm wrong and Jester is town, and if I'm even half right on who the remaining scum are, it's practically insta-loss.

my intuition tells me what's going on here is that Jester is a mislynch and scum are hoping to take advantage of it to solidify their position.

unvote:

I need some time to think; I might actually decide on a Parama lynch over a Jester lynch, depending on how I feel later.

[pieguyn]

Dunn, if you're expecting an answer to that, prepare to be disappointed. it's a ridiculous question which you are making several huge stretches to justify.

[pieguyn]

like the thing with this is neither Dunn _or_ Parama feel worried to me at all.

I might just be reading too much into it, but if Jester is town, scum would know that I'd likely lose most of my credibility after his flip.

[pieguyn]

This is worth a serious answer to and I'm going to quote it until it gets one

no, it isn't and your insistence on this doesn't give me any reason to feel good about you.

first off, asking me to explain why people should be town reading myself at this point in the game is thoroughly stupid. I hope I don't need to explain why this is the case. this isn't a game state where I've done a bunch of things that I'm consciously aware that I would not have done as scum, and I'm not going to be that player who quotes everything they've done and be like "look at me, I'm so town!" when it really isn't all that town. I think if you approach it from a logical POV, I look more town than not for basically the same reason I said on D1 - I'd likely play a much more straight-laced scum game in this player list, since I probably would be able to get away with it without much effort - but based on my tone and my content, there isn't any way I can give a reasonable answer to this.

second, you've basically reduced what I've done in this game to "aggression" and "posting whatever is on my mind", which is a huge logical stretch. I am fairly sure that if you ask anyone about their town reads on me, they will give you more than just "aggression" and "posting whatever is on my mind". I think probably the closest anyone has come to having a straight read on my play would be mhsmith picking up on the fact that my tone here is my town tone and that the way I'm pushing people is not how I do it when I'm scum, but it definitely isn't just "aggression" or "posting whatever is on my mind", it's the fact that the *nuance* of it is more likely to come from town.

inspectorscout's read on Parama *was* just based on aggression and them just posting whatever was on their mind, without any more depth to it, so no I don't think it's a good reason to town read Parama. however, if inspectorscout wanted to look through their ISO, pull up specific posts, and explain *why* something in particular was town aggression or a town thought to have, I'd be more than willing to think about it/consider it/offer a counterargument/etc., but I didn't because it wasn't there.

[pieguyn]

like the thing with this is neither Dunn _or_ Parama feel worried to me at all.

I might just be reading too much into it, but if Jester is town, scum would know that I'd likely lose most of my credibility after his flip.

Worried about what?

if Jester is scum, worried that your partner will be lynched and that then I'll be able to chain it into a lynch on you.

[pieguyn]

also, more about the nuance thing, Parama's push on S_S for the entire duration of this game was very aggressive, but I think it was aggressive in a way that's indicative of scum, not town - they basically just made up a scum slip based around something that wasn't a slip at all and continued to hard push it the entire day to the exclusion of everything else besides SAD's pair (who I also think is town).

[pieguyn]

You can't expect people to take your word for it. You should reevaluate your reads.

I don't know (or really care) if people in this game are town reading me for that reason, that's probably just the reason I'd use if I was attempting to read myself ignoring any sort of judgement call about my tone.

/shrug I don't really think it's productive to question town reads on myself in general, although if there's one or more in particular you take issue with, you can point it out to me and I can look at it.

[pieguyn]

I thought parama was my partner?

Regardless, I don't care if jester is lynched. Actually, I do. I don't care If they get lynched... eventually. If everyone ignores me and lynches whoever for the second day in a row we're going to have problems and it honestly doesn't matter what they flip because they're still ignoring my points

that was a hypothetical where I was thinking about Jester being scum and one or more of {you, Parama} being scum with him. I just don't have the ~feeling~ either of you are acting like a Jester lynch is really problematic for you, hence I've stopped to question it.

[pieguyn]

meanwhile if Jester/MDS is town I'm thoroughly stuck if you two are scum given Jester was my push the entire game and we'd have no more extra lynches, so there's a lot of risk involved.

[pieguyn]

I thought parama was my partner?

Regardless, I don't care if jester is lynched. Actually, I do. I don't care If they get lynched... eventually. If everyone ignores me and lynches whoever for the second day in a row we're going to have problems and it honestly doesn't matter what they flip because they're still ignoring my points

that was a hypothetical where I was thinking about Jester being scum and one or more of {you, Parama} being scum with him. I just don't have the ~feeling~ either of you are acting like a Jester lynch is really problematic for you, hence I've stopped to question it.

When did you start to scumread me?

this game day.

your reads so far have been terrible.

[pieguyn]

I frankly don't remember finding any of the reasoning for S_S scum compelling at all; the "scum slip" is merely the most egregious point.

I supported him mostly through POE at the end, but in terms of explicit scum reads? no.

I don't really care if "MDS agreed it looked like a scum slip" or whatever, it wasn't.

[pieguyn]

yes, yes, such a town reaction. totally not obfuscative at all

[pieguyn]

yes, because certainly if a bunch of people agree on something, it's a true statement.

[pieguyn]

to me, it looked like a scumslip. and i was not the only person of this mindset.

I do not believe anyone else in this game saw S_S' 212 and thought, with absolute certainty, "this post is a scum slip", to the point where they insisted on it throughout the entire duration of the game day. I remember people commenting on it and kinda agreeing that it could be a slip, and that's a reasonable mindset to hold, as it was obviously not a slip and the reasoning you were using to insist that it was one was very nebulous, but I do not remember anyone else acting the way you did about it.

if I'm wrong, feel free to correct me and I'll probably recall why I thought it was different from what you did.

and again you're still ignoring literally every other point made against him. you know, the responding to any arguments with ad hominem, the lurking and only posting when called out, outright lying about things he said for no reason, pick your poison whatever you want the flavor of the day

I could easily quote everything you said about S_S and explain why I thought none of it held water, if you want, but I don't see much of a point (unless you're specifically asking me to do so, in which case... kyahaha).

[pieguyn]

okay. doesn't change that i thought it was a scumslip. scumslips don't suddenly not become scumslips just because time passed.
and don't do that, it's not productive at all. i don't care what you thought about shadow. that doesn't discount what i thought about shadow.
you're arguing "i didn't see the arguments so therefore they were all entirely invalid" and i'm arguing "the arguments i made were why i believed shadow was scum" and it's just like
you're not seeing anything from anyone else's point of view is the main problem here

it isn't about whether it's correct or not. it's about the fact that the arguments you were making did not read like you were legitimately drawing your conclusions from things S_S was posting, they read as disingenuous attempts to spin behavior that was not scummy as scummy.

[pieguyn]

I mean...

"tonally, the post came off like he KNEW Cv666 was town" is clearly such a good reason to be completely adamant that it was a scum slip for the entire game day, as opposed to him just poking Cv666 over what he thinks is odd behavior from town, right? clearly it's such an objective basis for forming a read that you can just write it off without stopping to consider that maybe you... were just misreading his tone, right?

[pieguyn]

Really? But you agreed with my read there yesterday

which read, the read on Jester?

I still do agree with it, but that isn't one of your reads that I take issue with. first off, I have no idea why you think HS is scum when she's really obviously not - and no, "your self voting looks fake" is not a good reason.

second, the read on me feels completely made up, in all honesty. my progression on mhsmith I think is well enough documented in the game thread, and if you can read his posts around the 3600 range and not see why suddenly I might have cause to think that I had just gone way too far with the read on him, then as I said to scout, you're completely tone deaf. I also don't really buy that you saw that entire mhsmith/me shitstorm from right at the end of D1, and didn't stop to engage it or factor it into your reads at all. I think most people would read that, and see how much town bled from both sides of the interaction, and at least stop to think "oh hey, if one of these people is scum they sure know how to feign frustration. maybe I should see if I can look elsewhere!". as an example, Kagami seems to have backed off of my pair despite her pretty strongly scum reading mhsmith earlier. scum, on the other hand, would need to mislynch our pair and thus be more inclined to completely ignore/disregard it in order to push their mislynch.

recently, you have a lot of potshots towards me along the lines of "so as soon as I scum read you, I'm scum" (3928), which are shallow in a way I think are more likely to come from scum than town - it isn't about the fact you're scum reading me, it's the way you're doing it and the reasoning behind it. pushing someone does not give you immunity to being scum read by them, and I hold a fairly strong belief this comes more from scum who just want any way to make the person pushing them look worse than them rather than critically engaging.

I'm also not really sure why you're complaining that I want to lynch Parama's pair before mine, when 1. you scum read the same pair and 2. you seem to have some form of scum read on Jester.

[pieguyn]

This is not someone being self-aware they pushed a wagon on town. This is someone trying to cover their back for pushing a townlynch by blaming it on the person that got lynched.

I do think this is them trying to cover their back for pushing a town lynch, but I think their mindset is more along the lines of, "everyone else pushed it too, why do you think you can single *me* out for it?"

[pieguyn]

I agree that Parama's "case" on SAD is really shallow, in the same way that their S_S push was. it was bad D1 and it's bad now.

[pieguyn]

You're acting like my read hasn't changed. It has. I townread you yesterday.

I don't think anyone was feigning frustration. Still think there's scum

your read on me changed for reasons that had... nothing to do with the interaction between mhsmith and me. so I don't see how you actually looked at what had happened between me and mhsmith and factored it in here. care to refute everything else I wrote about my read progression (namely the fact that I had compelling reason to back off and the fact that you're scum reading, or at least OK with compromise lynching, all the same pairs who I want to lynch first)?

I don't see how you can take issue with me seeing HS as scuma dn voting there when you're saying Parama is scum. It's the same slot? Why should it matter to you

I don't care that you're voting the same pair, what I care about is the reasoning behind it. as far as I can tell, you have provided no compelling reason to scum read HS, someone who is pretty obviously not scum.

positionally, it's also relevant because you're trying to set Parama's pair and my pair up as a pair so that if the former flips scum people think we're aligned, so I'm not going to let you just say this.

[pieguyn]

right, arguing with you two is a true waste of my time since i feel like you're both just ignoring me and going "lol scum" instead so i'm gonna go do literally anything else for now

again.

if you want me to go through your posts about SAD and explain why it doesn't hold water and why specifically I don't think it looks like you having a natural thought process as town, blow the whistle. I'm not ignoring you and going "lol scum", as much as you want to make it sound like I am. ~

[pieguyn]

I'm not. I've said it before and I say it again: IF HS flips scum... Kagami is probably scum too

OK I think I'm going wrong somewhere. have I misread something?

[pieguyn]

do you have a scum read on HS?

if so, can you walk me through why again?

[pieguyn]

hoi HS. you agree Jester and Parama are scum, but if the last scum isn't Dunn, who do you think it is?

[pieguyn]

what do you think the gamestate looks like if Jester is somehow on god's green earth town?

I'm honestly just really scared because if he's somehow town (and MDS, but I don't particularly think she's scum) then we're probably just completely fucked. I'm probably just being stupid, though.

I guess I'm just looking for reassurance?

[pieguyn]

god these dance games are always so terrifying.

[pieguyn]

Dunn is either scum, or incredibly lazy.

he is continuing to push me over my read progression on my Jester/Parama/mhsmith reads from end of D1 to today. when I explain to him why my reads progressed in the way that they did, he... ignores me, and then continues to push it anyway. I hope I don't need to explain why this is scummy, but since I don't even know with this game, it is a fairly typical scum tactic to ignore arguments for why your push is wrong and continue to push it anyway - town on the other hand would be legitimately forming reads and would at least consider it either way, not just continue to push for the sake of having a push (either by thinking it didn't hold water and offering a counter-argument, or thinking that it does and factoring it into their read in some way or another).

his only engagement with mhsmith/me's interaction at the end of D1 was "don't think anything was faked, still think there's scum in it", AFTER I explicitly asked him about it, and nothing while it was actually going on. there's a complete lack of critical thinking here and it doesn't read like he saw that and actually legitimately had that thought, it reads like he came up with an excuse not to have to engage and reevaluate his push after I brought it up.

on top of that I just think his posts today have been really nitpicky and shallow; I said this in a previous post and he's still doing it.

can people who have town reads on Dunn explain why?

[pieguyn]

scout is doing the same too, ftr, but he at least just appears to be lazy, not scum.

[pieguyn]

I still strongly believe that one of {parama, arthur} is scum. If it's not arthur, it's 100% Parama.

Parama is definitely a lot worse than SAD.

[pieguyn]

Kagami, whenever you arrive can you talk to me about what you think about Dunn's behavior this game day?

[pieguyn]

Pieguy what do you think I've ignored?

first off, you have tried to push me for "making up reasons to lynch other people without outright defending mhsmith". thing with this is, I think I've documented the reasoning behind my scum reads on Jester and Parama pretty well in-thread - I've wanted to lynch Jester for forever, and after S_S' flip, I've covered that I think Parama's pushes this game have all been forced. if you think I'm making up either of these reads then you should be able to argue the point - point out what in my reasoning looks "made up" and try to probe me for more info if you think I haven't explained it well enough.

also, about my read on mhsmith, I told you in a post specifically directed to you that it's obvious why I have reason to question the read on him if you look at his posts at the end of D1, and you didn't give any response to it. the only thing you even mentioned that was related to this was that you didn't think our interaction was a town tell either way, but again, you don't point out what in my approach looks "made up" or why it's unreasonable for town-me to want to lay off of him for a bit even if I'm not 100% on him being town - the way I approached it was perfectly reasonable and if you were to attempt to bullshit a reason for it being made up you'd look like obvscum, so ignoring it is really your only option if you want to spin the way I'm approaching mhsmith as disingenuous.

instead of attempting to engage me on either of these points, you attempt to nitpick and push over things like pairs not interacting with each other, the fact that I had previously agreed with your mhsmith read (... duh, my read on him is in flux now so obviously I no longer agree with your read), calling my push effectively an OMGUS - and before you ask, no, this is not a scum tell and I think you're a smart enough player to realize that I take issue with the reasoning and behavior with which you're going about the read on me, not just "ur pushing me, ur scum". I've pointed this out, too, the point about OMGUS in particular, and nothing.

second, I've asked you multiple times why it's so problematic for you that I want to lynch Jester's pair and Parama's pair if you had scum reads on them yourself, nothing - this seems like a fairly noticeable contradiction in the mindset with which you're approaching this and I'd still like an answer to it.

[pieguyn]

also, I'm still not sure what your actual reason for scum reading mhsmith at this point is and your recent posts directed to him have been as nitpick-y as your posts directed to me, so I'd like if you could run me through it again.

[pieguyn]

oh, and another thing, if I wanted to defend mhsmith I would defend him.

I don't, and never, cared about things like "no one else is town reading him". the last dance game my partner was universally scum read and I got us to endgame anyway (he was scum, but that's beside the point...) moreover, HS does have a strong town read on him, so what you're saying isn't even true unless she's scum (she isn't).

[pieguyn]

Pieguy what do you think I've ignored?

first off, you have tried to push me for "making up reasons to lynch other people without outright defending mhsmith". thing with this is, I think I've documented the reasoning behind my scum reads on Jester and Parama pretty well in-thread - I've wanted to lynch Jester for forever, and after S_S' flip, I've covered that I think Parama's pushes this game have all been forced. if you think I'm making up either of these reads then you should be able to argue the point - point out what in my reasoning looks "made up" and try to probe me for more info if you think I haven't explained it well enough.

also, about my read on mhsmith, I told you in a post specifically directed to you that it's obvious why I have reason to question the read on him if you look at his posts at the end of D1, and you didn't give any response to it. the only thing you even mentioned that was related to this was that you didn't think our interaction was a town tell either way, but again, you don't point out what in my approach looks "made up" or why it's unreasonable for town-me to want to lay off of him for a bit even if I'm not 100% on him being town - the way I approached it was perfectly reasonable and if you were to attempt to bullshit a reason for it being made up you'd look like obvscum, so ignoring it is really your only option if you want to spin the way I'm approaching mhsmith as disingenuous.

instead of attempting to engage me on either of these points, you attempt to nitpick and push over things like pairs not interacting with each other, the fact that I had previously agreed with your mhsmith read (... duh, my read on him is in flux now so obviously I no longer agree with your read), calling my push effectively an OMGUS - and before you ask, no, this is not a scum tell and I think you're a smart enough player to realize that I take issue with the reasoning and behavior with which you're going about the read on me, not just "ur pushing me, ur scum". I've pointed this out, too, the point about OMGUS in particular, and nothing.

second, I've asked you multiple times why it's so problematic for you that I want to lynch Jester's pair and Parama's pair if you had scum reads on them yourself, nothing - this seems like a fairly noticeable contradiction in the mindset with which you're approaching this and I'd still like an answer to it.

ignoring me is not an option.

I don't care about convincing you, I care because I think your thought process is fake and I think you're continuing to ignore me because you don't know how to answer for all of this in a way that doesn't make you look like obvscum.

[pieguyn]

'Theyre doing the same but I expressed a townread on one of them so I call one of them scummy lazy and the other one just lazy'

This is again you wanting to keep a more consistent thought progression.

no, I just think you're bad at the game.

Dunn on the other hand should know better.

[pieguyn]

Then vote me. I don't know what you want me to say. I disagree.

... are you being deliberately obtuse or are you actually serious?

I'll make it as straightforward as possible. answer the following questions:

- you keep saying I'm "making up reasons" to push people who aren't mhsmith. which reads/reasons have I made up and why do they come across as made-up?

- why do you find it so difficult to believe I'd want to back off of mhsmith and give him some room, after what happened at the end of D1? don't care if you don't think it was a town tell, I want to know why you find it so difficult to believe that *I* - or anyone else - would think it a good idea to give him room after that.

- what about my push on you is scummy? you're a smart enough player to realize "ur pushing me bc I called u scum" is not a valid reason for anything - I take issue with your read on me because your reasoning is reachy as all hell and you ignore me when I try to explain to you when my read is wrong, which is a fairly typical scum tactic, not because of the fact that you are pushing me and that's it.

- how on earth did you justify claiming it was scummy of me to want to lynch Jester and Parama before mhsmith, when at the time you posted that, *you also wanted to lynch both pairs*? don't care if you've backed off the Jester read now, the fact of the matter is at the point when you posted this angle you were OK with a Jester lynch and it makes no sense to complain that I'm "lining up lynches" when all the pairs I were pushing were pairs you AGREED were scum.

[pieguyn]

*wasn't a town tell.

[pieguyn]

To start with, I began by asking you a question about the people on your wagon. You overreacted and acted like I was throwing shade/pushing on you and refused to answer me and then scumread me.

By the way, that's still valid to look at if you're town.

are you seriously going to deny that you're pushing me? you continue to state, in no uncertain terms, "mhsmith/pie isn't town/town", you continue to inject yourself into interactions with people who claim that my pair is town/town, you outright said in 3905 before I even started to interact with you that you didn't like my entrance...

and I didn't answer your question at first because it was a stupid question, but even so, I did eventually answer it after you kept requesting me to answer it, so... what is your point here?

My thoughts don't all coexist together. If you're scum it's possible it's with kagami and 1 other and so your "made up" read is most likely the one you're pushing; jester

you are dodging the question. you claim it looks like I'm making up reads - what about my read on Jester looks made up to you?

you are basically saying I'm making up reads because I could be scum with Kagami. I hope I don't need to explain why this is a circular argument and I don't think you would be that obtuse to where you'd think this is actually a good line of reasoning. you can't just say "your reads look made up" and call it a day - if you want to say that my reads look made up, that is that I wouldn't have the reads that I have as town, you need to have an explanation for *why* I wouldn't have those reads as town or you have no ground to stand on.

Didn't you "give him room" overnight? I asked.
Not sure where you're going with this - are you saying you needed time to cool off? Okay I guess.

I'm saying that I think the way mhsmith interacted with me end of D1 is a town tell. with that in mind, why is it so surprising that at the current point in the game I'd prefer to leave him for later and lynch elsewhere (people I think are likely to actually flip scum)?

[pieguyn]

Well, he flipped town, and when I ask you about the discussing with kagami bit you start saying things like you're already in agreement anyway and also we shouldn't lynch your pair again

I don't really know what you would have expected us to interact about at that point in the game. there was nothing we weren't in agreement on except for the read on HS, in which case 1. I feel really sure she's town and 2. we agree Parama needs to die at some point anyway, so there's no reason to think too hard about the HS read. I'm curious what she thinks of you in terms of your play, and if you'll notice I did ask her about it. if there are reads in the future that I think we should discuss for some reason or another, then yeah I'll discuss them with her.

if you're town I think your assumption of how we would interact with each other is off.

[pieguyn]

look at the way we interacted for the early parts of D1, for example - it isn't like active posting or that kind of active interaction, we've mostly just been measuring our reads against each other's and correcting each other when we feel the other is going off.

I'm not sure to what extent I believe you weren't aware of this, but w/e (this is another kind of angle that reads more like you're just attempting to invent reasons to push my slot, rather than thinking critically).

[pieguyn]

HS, what do you think about the pushes on my pair this game day? like, do you get a feeling of "you two are town/town and scum needs to force a lynch on you in any way possible" when you see it?

also if my choices were Parama and SAD, I'd lynch Parama in a heartbeat.

[pieguyn]

I think what's going on is Dunn and Parama are scum and Dunn is attempting to link you/Parama to my pair because "we've never interacted", in order to increase the chance of him being able to chain the lynch into us in some way or another.

if Jester's pair is the second town/town pair, god forbid, then that's pretty much all that is necessary because they're getting lynched unless something amazing happens. I need to look again for signs of SAD/scout being lined up for lynch in case I'm right about them being the other town/town pair, but I guess worst case even if there's nothing obvious they might just be trying to eke them out in 4p if it really came down to it (since scout seems to think SAD is scum for some god-knows-what reason).

then again, I suppose Parama is hard pushing SAD right now, so...

[pieguyn]

can you summarize that for me? i want to put stock in your read because you're p town to me (either that or master pocketsmith :<) but i don't see how you could come to that conclusion without my pt
or maybe it's because you townread arthur?
talk me through this and if you have a logical argument for parama you have my vote again

Parama is the one whose push came off as explicitly disingenuous to me. I continue to have no idea how they would have came up with the S_S "scum slip", and it continues to be completely baffling to me that when I asked them about it, the best they could give was "tonally it came off like he KNEW Cv666 was town" and somehow this was supposed to be some smoking gun that made it actually a scum slip and not just an an awkwardly worded question. the rest of their push was just about as bad but that's the part of it that stands out the most to me.

SAD I think is really abrasive, but his posts just don't look like scum. as the most recent example, in the SAD/Parama interaction from the start of this game day, I was pretty satisfied with his lines of attack ("you just pushed a mislynch and now you've came right out again and hard pushed a case on me full of BS reasons", "he's trying to obfuscate the S_S lynch by calling attention to the fact that other people wanted it too").

I don't really think it's just a stylistic issue. it could be, but I don't think it is.

why specifically do you doubt a Dunn/Parama team?

[pieguyn]

we do agree on scout being "a little shallow and also town". I think *if* there's scum focus on me right now, it's Dunn.

[pieguyn]

i'm terrified jester/mds will flip t/t because a tilted jester who is just sick of this game becomes more realistic the more i think about it
in that situation mds acting lynchbaity isn't even unrealistic because maybe she just wants out of the game without ruining it by replacing. in fact that becomes more realistic the more i think of it.

I'm scared out of my fucking mind that this is what's going on, too, but then I think of just how shit his play this entire game has actually been if he *is* town here, and the fact that the him-town world likely has Parama and SAD hard cross bussing each other, and I calm down. ideally they should have been lynched first dance so we wouldn't have had to be sitting here entertaining the possibility someone can somehow play that badly as town.

[pieguyn]

either that or mhsmith is scum but I'm rapidly getting the same feeling I've had about Maria and SAD that I just don't think his posts look that much like scum, even though I do not feel as strongly about it as I do/did with them.

[pieguyn]

can you link me that game?

I wish Vedith was a player who I have ever seen actually post things worth reading as town, because that'd make it a lot easier to have any faith in his ability to read him. in my experience with Vedith (including this game) he obvtowns as town, but a lot of his posts and reads are just incomprehensible and he's usually only correct via coincidence.

[pieguyn]

(my experience with Vedith also includes a game where I was scum, he hard town read me the entire game and eventually misvoted in LYLO, so that's a pretty huge part of why I assess his play the way I do. yes, he said he had never seen me-scum before...)

p-edit: grazie.

[pieguyn]

I'm looking through that and son of a bitch. Vedith's initial scum read on their slot for MDS's posts came for reasoning that I can't understand at all, but then when Jester started posting Vedith's read on him actually seemed OK (not the kind of thing I imagine I would notice if I was actually in the game, but it does seem OK in hindsight), and he called out Jester hiding from him pretty much immediately. the other thing I see is that Jester's reaction to being called out for that was... nothing, which is in complete contrast to here (might not mean much because hydra slot, but even if he was in a hydra and had the ability to fake the posts he would have faked in this game if he is scum in response to being called out for his activity, why *not* do it there too?).

I fucking hate this game.

[pieguyn]

@MDS,

is Jester's preferred alignment scum or town?

[pieguyn]

I think so. I'm not sure what you're getting at.

[pieguyn]

kagami's interaction with the mds wagon today is horrible, keep that in mind

I agree that Jester/MDS being town means Kagami is scum (which would probably also make Dunn town but doesn't matter at that point).

I have no idea if I'd pick SAD/scout or my pair as the other town pair. I need to actually stop and think some more.

[pieguyn]

holy crap kill this with fire

okay yeah
calling it now: MDS/Jester T/T 100%
SAD + Kagami + smith I guess?

HS, how do you reconcile this post (or rather Parama's general approach displayed in this post) if the view of the game we're building is correct?

I can reconcile it - it's actually not a hard post for scum to make as it could be them attempting to 1. pick up cred after a MDS/Jester town flip if the lynch lands on Jester, 2. generate false associatives if the lynch lands on them (and hopefully coerce town into chaining it into a Jester lynch anyway), but I want to know if you agree/disagree.

[pieguyn]

I fucking hate this game.

[pieguyn]

WHERE THE HELL ARE ALL THE SCUM IF JESTER/MDS IS A TOWN/TOWN PAIR AND PARAMA IS ALSO TOWN???

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON

[pieguyn]

watch it be something ridiculous like Dunn/Kagami being a scum/scum pair.

no really I cannot think of anything else that explains this game if Jester/MDS and HS/Parama are *both* town pairs.

[pieguyn]

the major, major problem I'm having here is that after checking the game HS linked, and seeing Vedith actually manage to form a read that wasn't completely incomprehensible, I'm left facing the fact that the two people in this game who are certified at reading Jester are/were both adamant that he was town.

I'm aware that it's fairly usual for scum to try to tailor their play to the people who know how to read them best and that it's really hazardous to just accept someone else's town read on someone because "I can read them" - I have been that town player completely misreading scum and making everyone listen to me because "I can read them" - but at this point, ugh.

[pieguyn]

thing is if we go through with the Jester lynch and it's town, then we probably just lose.

so yes, it is reasonable to think about what might be going on here if they're town. there isn't any reason not to. if we can't find any scenario where they work as town and we've just been lined up to walk into our death by lynching them, then yes, they could easily just be scum, but I am nowhere near sure this is what is going on and I want to be absolutely sure I'm not missing anything before I proceed with the lynch, especially given how high-risk it is.

this is why I wish we had lynched Jester D1.

[pieguyn]

Pie, can you give me a tl;dr on smith-town?

I have doubts that his emotional reaction to me back when we pushed each other end-of-D1 comes from him as scum. apart from that I really am just having second thoughts because he strikes me as someone who is similar to myself in that they don't like playing scum and have trouble remaining actively invested and engaged in games when they're scum, and if I look at his play this game day in general I really just don't take issue with it in the same way I took issue with his early-D1 play.

it's difficult for me to point out specifics; I mostly am thinking in terms of "his play doesn't look like scum". if anything I would like if you/anyone else could try to sell me why they think he's scum and I'd evaluate it.

[pieguyn]

VOTE: Arthur/scout
I'm confident in Jester/MDS T/T now, and although Parama has acted quite scummy, he's had a few posts that do not logically come from scumParama (Thank you to Pieguyn for pointing out 4095 and wriggling some analysis out of me)

Scout has been badposting a lot, and I still definitely believe there's at least one scum in {parama, arthur} for the shadow push. Although parama looks far worse on the shadow wagon and post shadow flip, again, parama has said some things that just don't make sense coming from scum, and was townread by far more dead townies than Arthur.

The one and only thing that gives me pause is Nahdia scumreading Jester/MDS.

calm yourself.

I'm not entirely convinced Jester/MDS is town/town. I'm seriously considering it, but I'm nowhere near believing that's the gamestate we are, in fact, in.

scout is actually one of my two lock-town reads atm (you being the other); his arguments are bad but I think the way he's going about it and his conviction is very town.

how do you think this game works with both of those pairs as town and my pair as town/town-with-an-asterisk? does that mean you think Kagami/Dunn actually is a scum/scum pair?

[pieguyn]

I'm calm, just bad at mafia.

I feel like mds' behaviour has just been her intentionally acting scummy so that their pair can get lynched and removed from the game peacefully. I feel like her asking so many times whether she was ok to leave was just her gauging the waters to see if town would mind. I believe minimal conflict is her win condition in this game, even above her role PM.

I don't understand the latter part of that post. I don't think there's three T/T pairs?

you basically laid out in that post that you thought Jester/MDS was town/town and that Parama was town. I'm asking how you reconcile this game with all of that - you voted SAD, but where are all the other scum?

I have considered at one point that Jester/MDS is a scum pair with MDS being the scum instead of Jester, but the way she is playing this is pretty ridiculous if she is scum. she has spent the entire game expressing the same "frustrated that town is being stupid and lynching someone I'm sure is town" mindset that you want to town read Jester for, and on top of that I really just don't get the sense that her consistent belief that she needed to be gone before endgame was feigned or something she had made up for town cred.

[pieguyn]

MDS' vote for the last part of D1 was a serious vote on herself, through the point when she had a large wagon on herself that was very viable and until the day ended.

I don't think that's feigned.

[pieguyn]

also, it is reasonable that she would hold the belief that no one cares about her reads when she's been pushing Jester-town the entire game and no one except Vedith gave her any time of day about this read.

if there's scum in the pair it definitely is Jester, it's just a question of whether she is scum or not.

[pieguyn]

also, it is reasonable that she would hold the belief that no one cares about her reads when she's been pushing Jester-town the entire game and no one except Vedith gave her any time of day about this read.

if there's scum in the pair it definitely is Jester, it's just a question of whether he is scum or not.

EBWOP

[pieguyn]

MDS' vote for the last part of D1 was a serious vote on herself, through the point when she had a large wagon on herself that was very viable and until the day ended.

I don't think that's feigned.

I don't find your reason compelling here.

what am I missing?

[pieguyn]

I still find it pretty incredibly that a town-player whose only strong position has been "Shadow-Maria is town" produces 3706 and 3719. On the other hand, it's not really any less crazy that scum-jester produces them.

at this point, I don't feel safe making the assumption that Jester is a player who you can even attempt to apply the laws of internal consistency to.

I really wish I had lynched him D1.

[pieguyn]

Who do you think would be most likely scum with jester?

if Jester is scum, I think it's Jester, Parama, +1.

[pieguyn]

I literally don't know how this game works at all if I'm wrong on it being those two, unless it's just that MDS is the scum in the Jester pair (in which case I'm not yet sure how I'd reevaluate).

what do you think is going on here if the Jester pair *is* town/town?

[pieguyn]

You didn't find it strange how today opened?

I definitely found Parama's end of it strange. SAD's end seemed normal for him, but I was looking through his ISO earlier and I actually really wasn't satisfied with it, so I no longer feel anywhere near comfortable with a town read on him like I did before.

I think we probably disagree on our strong town reads. mine are scout and HS, which means if it became apparent there was a scum/scum pair in the setup I'd look at your pair. -.-

what do you think scum-Parama's motivation for posting 4095 and related posts is if Jester-pair is town/town? at first I figured that they probably thought that either 1. the lynch would hit Jester and it would solidify their position, at which point they would either try to pivot onto the other town-town pair or try to eke them out in 4p, or 2. it would hit them and generate a bunch of WIFOM regarding their reads (and hopefully town would chain it into a Jester lynch anyway).

HS seems to be in pretty strong disagreement, though, so I'm not sure what to think.

[pieguyn]

What's the issue with SAD? I was liking him on review.

he's said a lot, but when I actually look at it from the top I'm a bit concerned about the way he focused almost entirely on MDS and S_S' pair to the near exclusion of any other push and I'm a bit concerned that I could be biasing towards him because he posts in a very logical style that resonates with me a lot.

I would consider a Parama-him crossbus *if* it became apparent Jester-pair was both town, but apart from that I don't know how hard I'd think about him.

[pieguyn]

HS read isn't due to her self voting, ftr, it's because literally nothing she's said or done over the course of pretty much the entire game has looked like scum to me at all. to take the most recent example, her/my interaction earlier today: I don't look at it and see anything incongruous or her trying to push any sort of agenda, I look at it and see her being right there with me not having the slightest clue what the hell is going on in this game, thinking she's made advancements in her reads only to second guess it later and displaying a noticeable mindset that me talking with her helped her to evolve her reads. I can probably go through more of her posts that I liked if you want, but don't know if we'll agree here.

I'm not quite sure what your point is re: 4071.

p-edit: if I'm going purely based on odds, Parama. if I'm going based on the gamestate, then it occurred to me earlier that if I'm correct on both of my town reads, it's very, very unlikely that Jester's pair and your pair are both town-town pairs.

[pieguyn]

thing is if we go through with the Jester lynch and it's town, then we probably just lose.

That's what I've been saying.

So why are you voting Jester, instead of Parama group?

I think you must not be reading my posts.

I unvoted Jester as soon as I started to get weirded out on it and I realized going through with it only for them to flip town/town would lead to a loss, since then I've been attempting to figure out where to go.

[pieguyn]

I am not committing to anything in any direction until I feel mostly sure that it is correct.

[pieguyn]

like here's the fucking thing.

let's suppose that Parama is in fact scum, and MDS/Jester does in fact contain exactly one scum.

I still have no idea where in {mhsmith, SAD, Kagami, Dunn} the last scum is. but that's exactly the thing: all of these people seem to be OK with a Parama lynch, so regardless of configuration, scum clearly are 100% OK with the Parama lynch. and then I think, why are scum so OK with bussing at this point in the game?

the best I could see it work is if Dunn is the last scum. if that's the case this all still makes sense because Dunn has gone out of his way to link Parama's pair and my pair as having "never interacted" (which is a shit associative in general except for newer players, but it's even worse when you try to blanket apply it to entire pairs instead of focusing on individual interactions), he has expressed that he'd rather not lynch Jester for the time being, and he's attempting to force a push on my pair for reasons that are as nebulous as the aforementioned associative (if you read his last post closely, you will note that he claimed I was "overreacting and acting like he was pushing me", then in his next post he agrees he was pushing me...) so bussing here makes sense to 1. distract from the Jester lynch and then 2. chain the lynch into my pair when my pair might have otherwise been significantly hard to lynch. you can claim there are people scum reading my pair but as it stands, it does not go anywhere without something drastic happening.

apart from that, though, I can't think of anything and I find myself thinking that there's just something all off here.

[pieguyn]

I think in the current gamestate, if that was to be the scum team, Dunn would be the person in the best position to carry out of all of them. Parama isn't likely to make it to endgame, and if it wasn't obvious overnight it definitely would have been as soon as D2 opened and you had half the game calling them scum, and barring something drastic, Jester pair isn't making it to endgame because duh. Dunn on the other hand would have the best hold in the game out of all of them atm. the same argument probably applies no matter who the last scum is, ftr, but it doesn't give me nay reason to question Dunn.

would mhsmith be POE at that point, or?

[pieguyn]

*any

[pieguyn]

@mhsmith/pieguy did you guys discuss things overnight?

not really. the most substantive discussion we had over the night phase was mhsmith hoping we'd die and us agreeing that Cv666's strategy was stupid.

So why the sudden shift?

How come yesterday you two were gung-ho on each other but today you both want to lynch multiple other people

Where I'm at right now:

HS/Parama top lynch
Mhsmith/Pieguy close second

Would lynch either of those two

at a distant third I have Jester pair

And then we'll see from there. Evaluate Kagami and Scout pair if needed

how do you possibly justify keeping Jester alive?

There are two pairs that are scummier

I didn't say I thought jester pair was town. They're my third choice for a lynch. Kagami really wants to lynch that pair as well.

I think the first two pairs I mentioned definitely contain scum. Even if that scum ends up being you. I haven't liked your entrance into today.

Saying you want to lynch a bunch of other people before your pair doesn't exactly inspire confidence. I thought you wanted to lynch Shadow because you wanted to discuss with Kagami? There seems to be a mutual lack of that

for one, Kagami has already commented on my reads and said we were mostly on the same page.

we don't seem to strongly disagree on anyone besides HS, and we seem to agree on Parama regardless, so... /shrug

don't really know what your point here is

Looks like you're making up reasons to lynch other people without outright defending mhsmith (which you can't really do if you're scum and he's town since his scumminess levels were way up there)

YES, YES.

GO ON, EXPLAIN HOW YOU WEREN'T PUSHING ME AND HOW YOUR BEHAVIOR CLEARLY SUGGESTS YOU AREN'T ATTEMPTING TO TIE PARAMA'S PAIR AND MY PAIR TOGETHER.

[pieguyn]

ALL OF THOSE POSTS,

BEFORE

YOUR "QUESTION" TO ME.

YOUR MOVE.

[pieguyn]

Never denied that I'm pushing you - I'm just not voting you atm

OK, so where is this magical point where you asking me "reasonable questions to solve the game" becomes a push?

[pieguyn]

Oh, right. Looking back Kagami was telling me she wasn't concerned with your pair at the time of that posting, you keep failing to mention that I included Kagami as a tie-in

I literally do not care in the slightest if you also brought up Kagami. you're attempting to invent an interaction between Parama's pair and my pair that is in reality completely stupid. you throwing Kagami in there on top of us does nothing to change this and you are just obfuscating here.

[pieguyn]

you are literally just attempting to argue semantics at this point. "oh, here's these posts where I'm asking you 'reasonable questions to solve the game', then I continue to give you the exact same treatment and at some point or another I declare it a 'push'".

you cannot attempt to make the claim that I "overreacted" to you and "acted like you were pushing me" when what you were doing was the exact same thing that you then turned around and called a "push" later

[pieguyn]

You can argue that the lack of interaction doesn't tie you together,

I am arguing that 1. this is the case, and 2. you clearly brought it up in a context meant to imply we were scum together for it, despite the fact that "theyre ignoring each other" is a shit interaction even for solo players, so attempting to handwave rule it over entire pairs is even more stupid.

[pieguyn]

would mhsmith be POE at that point, or?

No, smith fits in very nicely.

I'm going to go ISO him so I can see if I can pick up on whatever you're seeing, but: if it reaches the point where Parama and Jester are scum, would you agree to consolidate and let SAD/scout live to the end?

p-edit: I think slightly more likely town, but nowhere near strong town or and I would not fight to be the last pair standing if other people don't want it.

[pieguyn]

before I commit to Parama, there is one thing I want to be sure of.

@inspectorscout:

please confirm to me that you do not think me/mhsmith is a scum/scum pair. looking through your

I ask because if Parama/HS flips town I probably would just want to agree to their perspective and let MDS/Jester live to the end, and if that's is town pair, the only way this loses is if Kagami/Dunn is a scum/scum pair and the remaining lynches are done out of order.

[pieguyn]

before I commit to Parama, there is one thing I want to be sure of.

@inspectorscout:

please confirm to me that you do not think me/mhsmith is a scum/scum pair. looking through your ISO, this seems to be the case, but I want an explicit confirmation of it.

I ask because if Parama/HS flips town I probably would just want to agree to their perspective and let MDS/Jester live to the end, and if that's is town pair, the only way this loses is if Kagami/Dunn is a scum/scum pair and the remaining lynches are done out of order.

[pieguyn]

There are no night kills in this game, I don't intend to let your group get lynched, we can talk about her if you'd like but our best lynch is what I'm voting. And I can't die today because I need to lead the town for the next lynch.

for the record, this is the kind of post that suggests to me that in a Jester/Parama gamestate, the last scum is Dunn with the strategy of having him carry to endgame.

he's doing a bunch of shit like this, him attempting to line up my pair as a lynch after Parama's pair, etc., that suggests he's gearing to get a hold in the town, which is why I say his position would be relatively more solid than either of Jester/Parama's, and I think he's going about it in a disingenuous way. I'd still like if you could read his push on me and tell me whether you think it's the sort of push he believes actually holds water.

[pieguyn]

like he continues to scum read me/my pair for nebulous reasons, and when I point out why his reasoning doesn't hold water, he largely just makes excuses, ignores me, or says "I disagree" and leaves it at that without explaining any further.

what about this do you read as town?

[pieguyn]

I also think that specifically his read on HS is really strained, but I'm speaking from a position of thinking HS is practically confirmed town so I know you probably won't agree with this.

[pieguyn]

plus he's just acting really off and defensive towards me and it makes me think that I have him dead to rights and he's just looking for any excuse to discredit me.

there is no reason he needs to bother making all of his recent posts trying to make sure everyone in the game is aware of how I'm "ignoring" him if he was supposedly as firm as he was in his belief that my pair contains scum. from a town POV, I'm scum, he'd just lynch me and fuck my read on him; from a scum POV he needs to figure out some way to answer for my scum read on him once I flip town.

a lot of this is invalidated if mhsmith is scum, I guess, but I'm rapidly feeling more and more confident Dunn is the final scum here.

[pieguyn]

like, read the posts and think about the actual content of his read on me and the intent behind it. it doesn't come off as off to you?

[pieguyn]

you have done it, though

you've literally said in this thread that my pair is a "close second" lynch after Parama's pair, and you've brought up that there's a "lack of engagement" between Parama's pair and mhsmith/my pair. you cannot act like the implication here isn't obvious.

[pieguyn]

I do feel mostly sure Parama is scum, I'm just planning ahead a bit. as I said, not committing until I feel I'm ready to.

[pieguyn]

then if we were to lynch HS/Parama and they flipped town/town, you'd be OK with going Kagami/Dunn and then my pair afterward?

[pieguyn]

Possibly.
I'd prefer to lynch you before kagami, though.

think about this setup and the math behind it.

if Parama/HS are town and we gamble on Jester/MDS being town, then there are a few different possibilities

- scum is in all three of the remaining pairs - my pair, your pair, and Kagami's pair
- scum is only in two of these pairs and one of them is a scum scum pair.

if the scum/scum pair isn't mine, and yours is town, then specifically, it's either

- scum is in my pair, and Kagami/Dunn is a scum/scum pair
- scum is in your pair, and Kagami/Dunn is a scum/scum pair

after a Parama/HS lynch, if it flips town/town, the aim here is to get Jester/MDS to endgame, indiscriminately of all the other pairs. so think about what happens if we're in the last scenario and we lynch my pair first... right now 5-3, tomorrow 4-2, after lynching my pair... oh look, 2-2 scum win.

whereas Kagami/Dunn and then me is a safe route no matter what scenario we're in as long as you accept that my pair isn't scum/scum (which I 100% know to be true because I'm town).

follow?

[pieguyn]

rather if the scum/scum pair isn't mine, and *you're town

[pieguyn]

I don't think any pair is scum-scum. The benefits coming from that do not outweigh the downsides of it.

if HS/Parama and Jester/MDS are both town, then there is a distinctly non-zero chance that you're just wrong about there being no scum-scum pairs. there is absolutely no reason to make a more dangerous play that relies on you being correct as opposed to taking a safer play that works regardless of whether you're correct or not.

follow?

also, I don't really get what you mean by "downsides" of it. in the HS/parama town/town world, all we need is to get Jester/MDS to endgame and that's it, no?

[pieguyn]

... what are you even on about here?

agree or disagree: if HS/Parama is town/town, then Jester/MDS is the pair that needs to be alive at the end of the game.

[pieguyn]

if HS/Parama is town/town then we are, indeed, pretty fucked, so we might as well just choose to have faith in the reads of them + Vedith who strongly believed Jester/MDS was a town pair and just let them survive into the endgame and hope that's our best shot at winning.

that's why I'm pushing for that pair to be at endgame if HS/Parama flips town, at least. do you take issue with it?

[pieguyn]

like if they're town I have absolutely no faith in any of my reads anymore and I think a lot of people in this game (you included? or at least you do seem to agree we would be in a pretty shit situation), so I'd rather just trust theirs - it is that kind of thing

[pieguyn]

*and I think a lot of people in this game feel the same way

I should not fucking post right after waking up.

[pieguyn]

for the record, I'm not proceeding with the Parama lynch until I resolve this w/scout.

[pieguyn]

OK. who would you feel safest having at endgame if Parama/HS is town/town, then?

also it isn't that I'm "trusting" Vedith per se, I primarily feel this way because of HS and Parama, both of whom seem like competent enough players and have expressed the strong belief that Jester/MDS is town/town this game day. Vedith just happened to have the same read back when he was in the game and I'd feel bad not pointing it out.

[pieguyn]

you seem to have expressed you think my pair is scum, and you seem to have expressed your pair is also scum, and if you're going to say "I want Dunn/Kagami at endgame" then I recommend you replace out of the game.

[pieguyn]

yes, yes, if HS/Parama is town then Kagami, the person who's pushed the lynch of three town/town pairs without much seccond thought, and Dunn, the person who's been mainly focusing the entire game on lynching the HS/Parama pair in no small part with a really contrived scum read on HS, are so fucking town!

have you thought about this read at all?

[pieguyn]

You think that would be my strategy?

I have no idea, but I think you could probably get away with it in this player list if your team was configured well enough (and that you'd be aware of this).

[pieguyn]

but stop with your "if HS/Parama is town"
I think dunn/kagami have a higher chance of being town-town than HS/parama regardless of whatever you think.
I want your lynch asap, then I'm fine with dunn/kagami if HS/parama flipped town/town.
also note that that means I really believe in you/pie being scum.

the entire reason I want to convince you of this is because I'm planning ahead. HS/Parama is being lynched today, and *if* they flip town/town I want to make sure that a hypothetical Kagami/Dunn pair would not be able to steamroll MYLO tomorrow because of people making the assumption there wouldn't be a scum pair in the game.

it's a nightmare scenario and I admit it's unlikely, but I feel as confident as I think I will with Jester/MDS as the endgame pair if HS/Parama is town, and there's literally no reason to make sure it isn't accounted for unless you think my pair is a scum/scum pair.

[pieguyn]

if HS/parama are town we lynch you or dunn, okay.

specifically Dunn's pair first and then my pair (for the reasoning in 4425). OK?

[pieguyn]

I know my pair isn't scum/scum, because I'm town, but disregarding that, I do not see how you think mhsmith and I would have interacted the way we did this game as a scum pair and I think I can say that objectively.

[pieguyn]

I also don't understand how pie considers jester-parama-dunn more likely than jester-parama-smith.

While that's irrelevant to actual execution, since I think we both agree that sad-scout lives following parama-jester scumlynches, it is strangely defensive.

frankly, it's because I don't trust scout not to go rogue on us if he sees the game going in a direction he doesn't like, since he seems to have expressed he doesn't like SAD.

I'm fine with you leaving -> you choosing what pair survives to the end if Parama/HS is town/town, too, in case it wasn't obvious.

[pieguyn]

Kagami, if Parama/HS contains scum, would you be opposed to a me -> you -> Jester pair lynch order, or do you think Jester pair has a significant chance of being scum/scum?

[pieguyn]

actually hang on that doesn't work.

me -> you -> Jester pair if I flip town/town, me -> reevaluate from there if mhsmith is scum.

[pieguyn]

I really do not think I should keep being paranoid of you here but jesus fuck, I can't help it because pairing with a partner (and doing literally anything but what me/mhsmith did here) is probably exactly what I'd do in this setup.

[pieguyn]

vote: Parama/HS (L-1)

I'm nervous.

[pieguyn]

I really do not think I should keep being paranoid of you here but jesus fuck, I can't help it because pairing with a partner (and doing literally anything but what me/mhsmith did here) is probably exactly what I'd do in this setup.

I'm pretty confident that scum-scum pairing is optimal in a Large Dance unless it would be awkward to engineer, or there's someone in the list who you are confident would correctly scumread you.

this makes me happy to see, mostly just because I felt the same way soon after I first saw the large dance setup and now I know for sure that I haven't just been completely crazy to think it was optimal this whole time.

[pieguyn]

actually never mind, I skimmed over Parama's post where they said they'd do stuff tonight so I'll wait.

unvote:

[pieguyn]

hang on a second.

does Dunn/Jester/SAD make sense? I think Kagami suggested this earlier but ugh I need to look at it again because if mhsmith is town and HS/Parama is town then the HS/Parama lynch is a game throw.

[pieguyn]

Unless you think I'm really good at faking villagery tone as a wolf (which is news to anyone who's seen me wolf).

yeah OK so since you brought this up I want to talk about this.

a lot of the reason I just don't see mhsmith as scum here is that from what I've seen of him, he's on record as a player who doesn't like playing scum and used to think his scum game was abysmal and that it was something that he needed to improve upon. as someone who is basically the same in terms of just not liking playing as scum, I was in this exact spot like 2 years ago and I know just how hard it actually is for someone who just can't put their heart into scum games to keep their engagement up and actively stay invested in the game and (most importantly) fake the emotional state that they usually get into when they're town. I've improved my scum game a lot since then and I've gotten better at faking engagement, but I'm still just never fully "there" when I'm scum and mhsmith definitely seems "here" this game. the interaction with me D1, he seemed "here", his play this game day he seems much more "here" than his play early D1 which initially caused me to suspect him.

so like... yeah, maybe he just played a really good scum game, but do I feel any confidence getting him unless it's like Parama is scum and it's our pair vs. SAD's pair at a 4p endgame? not really.

I'm just terrified.

[pieguyn]

Let's imagine dunn is scum, scout is scum, kagami is town. Who do you think is most likely to be scummo #3?

scout-scum is a difficult assumption for me since I think his play looks very town, but I can say definitely not mhsmith with the way both of them have been railing on my pair today.

I think it'd probably be in Jester's pair, since I don't really know why Dunn takes the approach he did towards Parama/HS and me today if it's Parama. I think if he's aiming to distract from a lynch on Jester's pair it'd make sense for him to force the reads on HS and me in the way that he's been doing, but if the Jester pair is town/town along with my pair, he doesn't need to bother with the entire "bus Parama and chain lynch my pair" plan I've been suggesting earlier, he could easily just mislynch both our pairs.

[pieguyn]

So let's say we're T-T, what does that mean.

I think it makes sad-scout the other T-T.

also in agreement here, I think.

if you two were to be town/town, I'd probably go back and subscribe to the Jester/Parama gamestate, with mhsmith as the +1.

[pieguyn]

is there any configuration where this game works at all with both our pairs as town/town?

[pieguyn]

also, ftr, at this point I feel mostly safe with you as town unless you've long-conned me in some way that I have not thought about.

[pieguyn]

so like if you and Dunn are scum and your strategy was just to hard manipulate me by doing all of this, and then use me town reading you to pick a lynch order where you two can endgame, then kudos.

[pieguyn]

If smith and dunn are both town, then we're looking at probably SAD-Jester-Parama. Does that seem plausible?

it would definitely add some hilarity to Parama's most recent post.

as a more serious answer, I have no idea OTOH, I was hoping you would know. ._. it would mean SAD has basically been attempting to bus both his partners all game if that's the gamestate we're in.

[pieguyn]

SAD/Jester/Parama would mean that the scum team has been going for a mass-distancing approach the entire game, probably with the goal of getting SAD to endgame.

it's what the scum team the last game did, so I wouldn't rule it out, but... ugh.

[pieguyn]

actually hang on.

it would mean SAD and Parama went for a mass-distancing play, whereas Jester went and decided to put them both in his town pile (1064, 1911).

this seems kind of ??? to me.

[pieguyn]

i kind of feel like scum thought they had a free ride to endgame by pushing me & jester and now it's being met with resistance by the town and everything's falling apart.

tis what I thought too, which is why I initially tried to force Jester-pair into endgame if you were town/town, but keep reading and you'll see where me and Kagami addressed this (and also the part where it's hopefully obvious if there's a scum in their pair it's Dunn, not her).

[pieguyn]

it's not a tangible post, it's basically just our entire interaction across the past few pages.

where we're at atm is that Dunn being scum strongly implies me/mhsmith is town/town (I think it would also imply your pair is town/town but not 100%), and that if you're town it looks increasingly unlikely that Dunn is town (we've agreed that if their pair is town/town the other town/town pair is SAD/scout).

[pieguyn]

i saw your conversation on like 178ish or so and while i guess kagami comes off looking a bit better after that i did not get how it was relevant to this point

but i'm pretty tired so i might've just missed it

your pair and Jester pair being the town/town pairs doesn't work because it would make Dunn scum, which implies my pair is town/town and there can't be 3 town/town pairs.

I'm pretty sure me and Kagami are thinking the same way in that clearing her pair out today might be more optimal than clearing your pair, but I'm not 100% if she's in agreement or not so I'm actually waiting for her to tell me what she wants to do before proceeding.

[pieguyn]

Dunn has been completely railing my pair in a disingenuous way for pretty much the entire game, and whenever I try to explain to him why his read on me doesn't hold water, he largely just gives excuses or attempts to stonewall me. that is my reason and Kagami is in agreement but I do not think she has talked about her reason beyond "Dunn was dead set on lynching your pair D1"

[pieguyn]

I'm pretty sure me and Kagami are thinking the same way in that clearing her pair out today might be more optimal than clearing your pair, but I'm not 100% if she's in agreement or not so I'm actually waiting for her to tell me what she wants to do before proceeding.

Oh no

no no no no no

I am not risking entering lylo with Parama there is no way that is happening she will fucking use you people to lynch me.

if she/Dunn were to leave, we would force you two into endgame regardless of whatever lynch seems likely based on majority.

[pieguyn]

for the record, if you think me and Kagami are paying any attention to the "no one suicides" pact when discussing what the optimal strategy here is, you're wrong.

at that point all that matters is getting whichever pair into endgame, so it's 100% OK if whoever is town in the remaining pairs suicides (and in some cases it will probably be the only way to ensure the correct pair into endgame). obviously if someone unexpected flips scum, no longer applies because the plan would no longer apply, but if we're proceeding as part of a plan there is no reason to bother using the majority lynch to make people dead instead of suicide.

[pieguyn]

i vaguely remember dunn making some kind of stupid push on you in the pages i read but i don't remember what it was. can you point me at an example

so dunn-scum basically throws everything out of wack real quick, then.
but in the scenario where both my pair and jester's pair are t/t why does dunn have to be scum?

it's spread throughout multiple posts, but as an example, 4158/4167 and subsequent posts, 4318 and subsequent posts.

if you still don't get it, ask me again because I probably missed something.

your pair and Jester pair being town/town makes Dunn scum because if he's town Kagami/Dunn is a third town/town pair, which is impossible. I'm aware you're not sure on Kagami, but I fully believe she is serious about forming the plan she is forming with me and her willingness to suicide (since at this point after everything we've said, there really isn't any way she can invent a reason to have her pair alive at endgame).

[pieguyn]

My pair with fucking Parama's pair is at end-game is still lylo, and there is a reasonable chance she convinces HS to lynch me, and then it basically comes down to inspector. I don't want to be in a universe where I get mislynched at lylo and lose the game for everyone because that's literally miserable.

if it comes down to choosing whether to follow my orders or following Parama, HS will follow my orders, I'm pretty sure.

/stares softly at HS

[pieguyn]

if Dunn/Kagami was to leave and flip town/town, I believe our current plan is Jester -> Parama -> mhsmith. we would obviously secure the necessary promises to ensure whoever is town in all of those pairs would enforce it, and scout wouldn't do anything as long as my pair is alive.

p-edit: right. if she's scum, she has basically screwed herself over by making sure she won't ever be at endgame, so it doesn't matter if she is the scum in her pair, ignoring the fact that isn't something I think she'd ever do as scum even for "WIFOM" purposes. there are things you might do for WIFOM, but not completely self-destructive things like this that just wouldn't be worth it.

[pieguyn]

That is so reassuring......

relax, I'd obviously double-check with her first I feel sure she'd be fine with it, though.

[pieguyn]

i reject any plan that involves sad living to endgame fwiw

thing is Kagami and I haven't come up with any configuration yet that has you/HS and Kagami/Dunn as both town/town pairs.

she can correct me if I'm wrong on this/missed something.

[pieguyn]

if Dunn is scum, on the other hand, then I live to endgame, which means SAD dies.

[pieguyn]

Not it's not. If we leave I'll tell town the order we're lynching in. I'm considering it in our pt.

K.

[pieguyn]

um, what?

I legit don't know what you're talking about here; if I dismissed anything it wasn't my intention.

[pieguyn]

Sorry pie. Don't worry too much about screwing it all up, it's just a game and tbh scum have played amazing so far so I don't have high expectations for town to begin with.

<_>

<_>

I'm just gonna assume you haven't seen the last large dance. /covers face in embarrassment and runs away

[pieguyn]

Kagami, is 4620 something you've signed off on or is that something Dunn came up with entirely independently of what we've been talking about?

I do not fail to notice that if we're in the Dunn/Jester pair/SAD pair gamestate - which I'm starting to believe is increasingly more likely because MDS and Parama are sending town signals, even though they're slight ones - the end result of that plan is that the two town/town pairs are lynched immediately.

[pieguyn]

for the record, when I said I was OK with Dunn picking the lynch order, I meant if Dunn/Kagami left and dictated it posthumously.

[pieguyn]

HS/parama were heavily townread day 1. IC was killed because scum were happy with the way things were going (maybe).
There's also parama slouching off and HS being predictable

I don't think that pair is town. And if they are, I don't think your pair is town.

no they weren't and if this is what you're basing your entire approach to the game off of then your view of the game is shallow.

even though you're attempting to say otherwise here, the IC kill is the standard kill regardless of scum team configuration or how the game is going. it doesn't matter if "Cv666 was scummy" or whatever - I've said the same thing to scout earlier, leaving the IC pair alive is a huge, huge risk because if for instance Cv666 was to come back and look town/get widely town read then no matter what happens the scum team is entirely fucked with no recourse. you can't claim "scum would try to WIFOM it up if it was going badly for them" because no, they wouldn't, not when there's a very real chance doing so would completely fuck them over and Cv666 outright hinted in this thread that his approach this game was to play badly D1 on purpose to dodge a night kill. the last game, the scum team was in a completely shit-awful position D1 and they didn't try to leave the IC alive, they fought through it because attempting to lynch the IC pair is just far too hazardous as a strategy.

plus - even on top of all of this, and this is what I find disingenuous about your argument - Parama/HS was not the only pair that was heavily town read D1, and my pair sure as hell was *not* widely town read D1. SAD/scout and your pair were also pretty widely considered town D1, and even though a lot of people thought Kagami was scum no one was scum reading you iirc. what you're saying here about "OMG scum were OK with how the game was going and this has to point to parama/HS and pie/mhsmith" isn't even true and I don't think you would be that unaware of this if you were town here.

You were considering something similar to what I said earlier, but you latched onto something to attack me about instead of discussing with me.

I wasn't - your entire plan relies on you being town and your pair not being lynched unless we're in scenarios that are transparently not true (HS being scum) or after most scum teams including you would have endgamed already, which is not an assumption I have made at any point in this game day. I think what you're doing here is something that you probably have to do as scum - as town there are almost certainly ways to lock the game even if it necessitates the death of your pair (as both Kagami and me are attempting to do), but as scum you can't agree to Kagami/me's plan because you can't win in that plan, so you have to invent an alternate plan with a bunch of contingencies and hope that you can confuse enough people and persuade them from placing their trust in me to placing their trust in you.

I personally want to know what Kagami has to say of the way you're approaching this when she arrives.

[pieguyn]

all of this - the fact that you're pushing arguments which show no depth of thought like "IC pair was killed because scum was OK with how the game was going", and the way that you're trying to force yourself on the game while ignoring key facts that disprove your approach - is consistent with my previous assessment of your play, as well.

I'm particularly curious to see Kagami's comment on my former point here in particular, since that's common sense and I'd think you're a smart enough player to be aware of this.

p-edit re: Dunn

[pieguyn]

@pieguy First of all now that my thoughts are out here you can stop saying I'm bussing and trying to chain lynch your pair (which is scum more often than not) because I'd actually vote SAD/scout.

this might just be you not reading my post correctly so I don't think you're scum for pushing this (plus I don't even know if this is the gamestate we're in anyway), but for completeness, the fact that you would vote SAD/scout here is irrelevant. in the gamestate where your strategy is to bus Parama and chain lynch my pair, SAD/scout is the other town/town pair and your goal is to mislynch me while retaining enough town cred to beat SAD/scout (who was at least until very recently the most widely town read pair) in a 6p/4p endgame. going ahead and lynching SAD/scout obviously makes this unnecessary.

[pieguyn]

If a lot of people considered Kagami scum, we weren't widely townread. It can't really be both... you understand this, right?

So your argument basically boils down to "Even though hs-parama were townread day 1, so were sad/scout!" which is what I said to begin with.

wait hang on.

ignore the second part of my point (I misread), but it still doesn't change the fact that "IC pair died because scum is OK with how the game is going" is a shit argument and I think you're a smart enough player as town to realize that it's common sense the IC pair is pretty much always dead in this setup, unless they're widely scum read or have a very high chance of the IC ditching them, neither of which were the case with Cv666.

[pieguyn]

Cv666 played badly on purpose, but 1. they weren't widely read as scum. all the suspicion directed towards him was basically "look at them again post-intermission", no (or if there was it was completely negligible) hard scum reads, and they explicitly implied in the fucking thread that their plan was to play badly on purpose to dodge a NK. see Kagami agreeing that Cv666 should have done more to actually look scummy here if he wanted to successfully run this as a gambit; 2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

so no, leaving the IC pair alive was impossible in this gamestate.

[pieguyn]

Why is this bad coming from my point of view?

???

it isn't that it's bad from your point of view if you're town, it's that you tried to claim there was some contradiction in my play because I was suddenly pushing you despite "agreeing with something similar" to your plan earlier, which is either an intentional misrep or a misinterpretation because I have never agreed, and would never agree, to a plan that anchors around you being town.

[pieguyn]

it also happens to be exactly the kind of thing you need to be doing if you are in fact scum here, so...

invent reasons to throw shade on me and hope people stop trusting me and start following your plan (which doesn't call for your death until after scenarios where most scum teams you're on would endgame) instead.

[pieguyn]

Scum literally would have had to kill a scumread pair in order to not kill the IC pair

This isn't the very basis of my argument. It's supporting evidence.

OK. still a poor argument.

if scum are going to choose between a town pair and an IC pair with 0% of being lynched, they will always choose the IC pair.

[pieguyn]

2. Nahdia is not a player who would have ditched him unless there was serious, serious reason for it.

I don't see how this is relevant. This argument relies on scum knowing what nahdia would do. Implying you or Kagami (which is not what I'm saying)

this is the kind of thing that reads more like you're just making excuses to force yourself over what I'm trying to say. Nahdia is not a shit player and this is obvious - they would not just impulsively ditch the IC, they'd only ditch the IC if it became obvious they were scum (or otherwise fell into heavy scum read territory).

[pieguyn]

Let me repeat myself. This isn't my main argument. Yet it's the only thing you're considering.

I don't care that it isn't your "main argument". I care that it's a disingenuous argument, and it reads like something you're hoping to bring up hoping people read it without thinking critically about it. I also care that you've attempted to twist practically every interaction we've had this game day around in a way designed to make me look worse than you in a way that is more likely to come from scum than town (see: "who's the one making excuses now?" and you immediately seizing up and calling my posts on you "misreps" because you feel that if you don't contest it by calling it a misrep you'll look worse because of it, trying to spin me as "tunneling on everything you're posting").

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

if this is what you believe, and you feel firm in this belief, then you should have no problem committing to a plan where Jester/MDS's pair survives to endgame, regardless of whether it necessitates the death or your pair - this is more so the case given your stated suspicion on Kagami throughout the entire game. instead, we get you not being willing to go along with it - again, DESPITE your stated suspicion of Kagami throughout the entire game - and attempting to throw shade on me and invent a completely separate plan that just so happens not to call for Kagami's death until the majority of scum teams including you would have already been brought into endgame.

you aren't doing this because you feel it has the best chance of a town win - you do this because you need to figure out a way to spread suspicion on me and stop people from following my plan here

(which doesn't call for your death until after scenarios where most scum teams you're on would endgame)

Which is what? Always the opposite of what I'm pushing?

I have literally just said that in a game state where it's a scum team of you/Jester/{scout, SAD}, the result after executing your plan is that you endgame. there are others, but that is the most apparent one. there are other scenarios, such as it being you/Parama/Jester, in which case the result after executing your plan would be a 4p MYLO where you start off displaying a preference to lynch Jester pair but have room to reevaluate and play around it if need be. I recommend anyone who is reading this post to re-read Dunn's 4620 in mind and actually think: where would the game state end up if we have most plausible scum teams with him on it?

Pie I wish you'd consider my point of view and my points more carefully instead of going on a crusade against me. If you're town bashing everything I say really doesn't help me and I've explained that mhsmith is a strong contender for scum

but I'm not going after your pair

But you assume the pair I'm pushing has to be town (even though by your own judgement you couldn't see a scenario where they were town town) because you're looking to find a flaw with everything I do

this is me acknowledging this post. it would be nice if I could consider your point of view, but that is very difficult when everything you're writing has been based around the assumption you're town and I don't trust that you're town at all, especially when in all of interactions this game day you have tried to paint everything I've said as scummy in some way or another (in a scenario where spreading suspicion on me is pretty much your only out to win as scum...) - I'd be much more open to it if you were able to accept the fact that your pair likely needs to die before endgame in some way or another, but you've explicitly said you don't support any such plan.

[pieguyn]

like, I would happily accept a plan that called for the death of my pair, even though I think mhsmith is town, if I thought the logic behind it was sound and I felt certain it'd lead to a win (because duh I might just be wrong about mhsmith).

you, on the other hand, don't accept any such plans for your pair, despite you being noticeably _suspicious_ of Kagami... what am I supposed to say to that?

[pieguyn]

But I do

If I'm wrong about that parama scum thing most options lead to my death.

reading your plan from the top, the options that lead to your death are

- HS is scum and Jester/MDS is town/town. HS is transparently not scum here, so this isn't going to happen.

...

and that's it. all of the other options basically lead into "I'll reevaluate", which gives you plenty of room to maneuver as scum. so, no, that doesn't limit your options as scum at all.

what am I missing here?

[pieguyn]

If you're saying I should treat it in the third person and consider other peoples suspicions on me (not kagami) as reason to lynch my pair... I cannot.

I'm saying that if you want me to consider your plan as theoretically sound, then 1. it either needs to include the death of your pair or 2. it needs to place you in a position where your pair is town/town with very high confidence. this does not apply solely to your pair, either, the entire point is that in some way or another we wind up with a very high confidence town pair left at the end and that we avoid lynching both town/town pairs no matter what.

what me/Kagami are attempting to do here is not traditional chain lynching - it is organizing a strategy intended to break the game from an objective POV. if you flip scum, I think I can objectively say that my pair is highly likely town/town and I don't think I'm biasing here because Kagami agrees (if this wasn't the case I wouldn't agree to be the last pair. last game I fought really hard to be the last pair standing and my partner was scum and it was basically singlehandedly the reason town lost, and I wouldn't be able to live with myself it it happened again). I don't feel 100% on SAD/scout town if you're town, but at the moment I do think it's the most likely town pair. I hope at some point we'll figure out some way which prove them with higher confidence, or a different higher-confidence town pair and I can feel more secure with it, but if that isn't the case I'd still likely go with it.

you can't just complain that I'm not considering your thoughts because I don't just drop what I'm doing and decide to follow your plan instead of doing this. I can try to consider what you're writing, but I'd never actually follow your plan unless you suddenly did something very, very town. I can double-check in detail to see again if any of the arguments you wrote in your post ware convincing, but a lot of it seemed to be really heavily just based on your reads at first glance.

I think you probably need to die regardless of what Parama's alignment is. I could easily see a team like Jester/Parama/you if they're scum and there are some other cases like Jester/you/scout or SAD if they're town (as I said, the thing that I feel most confident in is that if you are scum mhsmith is town).

[pieguyn]

also, if you're town and you are just attempting to get me to consider your POV here, I do not understand why you keep doing things like calling my posts "misreppy", claiming I ignore things which I haven't actually ignored, labeling me as "tunneling", etc.

all of these are indicative more of an approach that suggests you are just attempting to make me look worse than you, not an approach that suggests you want me to consider your POV. if it's just your style or whatever, then OK, but that is where I come from when I say you've been consistently interacting with me in a scummy way this game day since there is significant scum motivation to act like this here (this being that if my plan goes through it ends in a loss for you-scum so you-scum would need to find reasons to throw shade at me) and if you're town I hope you being aware of this will cause us to talk past each other less.

[pieguyn]

Also, you think I'd never consent to my own death. I wouldn't consent to it unless it was lylo. I've explained my reasoning. Best pair to lynch and all that

you say that, but in a MYLO versus e.g. Jester's pair or scout's pair, you-scum has a practically guaranteed win if you can play around Kagami. I think you would be aware of this.

p-edit: I don't think so. I think he felt comfortable trying to lynch us D1 because we were widely scum read and even if we were to flip town/town, the majority of the blame for it would be mine. if mhsmith is scum, on the other hand, I don't think it's a bus.

[pieguyn]

For both situations. There's a reason I'm asking this

SAD/scout being town means you/Jester/Parama and we're back to where I was before, where I hypothesized you'd be the final scum after Jester -> Parama scum flips. I don't know OTOH what Jester/MDS being town means, but I still would feel mostly confident in your treatment of my pair not being a bus, so I would default to thinking you/Parama/someone in SAD/scout pair unless I had reason to think otherwise.

[pieguyn]

rereading your post, I am open to arguments for keeping another pair besides SAD/scout alive at endgame if you think we're in a crossbus situation. as I said I'm not 100% that SAD/scout is the town pair if you're town (I do think the plan is correct if you're scum), even though I think it's the best shot atm, since I'd largely just be going off of my previous reads (that is, this being a Jester->Parama gamestate with mhsmith as the +1).

if the argument for it is strong enough, I'd do a Parama lynch -> SAD lynch -> next lynch conditional on who in the SAD pair flips scum. I definitely want to know what Kagami thinks when she arrives.

[pieguyn]

to be clear, I do not mean lynching Parama first, this is in the plan Kagami and I were thinking about (your pair leaving first) in the case where you're town.

[pieguyn]

Pie, how likely do you think is that Dunn and Kagami are both town with Parama? Something like Jester, Smith, Arthur?

I don't know.

something like that would probably just make me want to cry. I had thought about it at one point, but Kagami didn't even seem to mention the idea of it back when we were running through combinations earlier (or if she did I've forgot about it and can't seem to find it again).

Also: do you think it's at all possible that inspector and Arthur are scum together?

they might be, but I don't think it's all that likely.

[pieguyn]

no one do anything until Kagami and I have a chance to reconvene, at least.

[pieguyn]

are both of you trying to say you want me/mhsmith to be the endgame pair, unconditionally?

please tell me that's not what you're saying.

[pieguyn]

Pie, are you around~~~?

funny, I just now got here. \o

[pieguyn]

Kagami-san, did you still want to talk to me?

[pieguyn]

I would be OK with letting jester/MDS live to the end on a Dunn town flip, ftr, but have we ruled out the possibility of Jester/Parama/mhsmith? I remember that being a thing earlier.

[pieguyn]

I think sad/scout is more likely than mds/jester.

as in, in terms of who is the most town?

I'm waffling on it. I like SAD/scout more, but if Kagami/you were to agree with the stance everyone else seems to have that it's Jester/MDS, I wouldn't fight it.

[pieguyn]

I wonder if Parama's posts along the lines of 4761 are indicative of a Jester/Parama/mhsmith team that doesn't want the plan in its current iteration to be executed.

[pieguyn]

I can agree to that. The part where you die, at least. Also the lynching pie/smith part after if you flip town part.
not sure what you mean by mds casually slide to endgame when she's clearly a member of the town.... parama pair would be lynched somewhere in there

if SAD/scout flips town/town, lynch this, immediately.

this is pure opportunism, in a position where we specifically need to WAIT until we have a plan in place before proceeding. I think he thinks scout will suicide and is hoping to capitalize on it, and then lynch my pair for the win.

[pieguyn]

like as soon as I saw that scout post I thought "god, scout is probably thinking about being an idiot and explicitly going against everyone else in the game and suiciding out of his own arrogance" and then my next thought was "if Dunn is scum he's probably going to goad him on".

[pieguyn]

well, now that you've confirmed you won't, I believe you, but it's more about Dunn's expectation of your behavior than what you'd actually do.

[pieguyn]

Kagami, are we still in agreement that the SAD pair would be the most likely town pair if Dunn is town? I can't tell how much of what Dunn is saying is stuff that you've signed off on.

[pieguyn]

Why are you against lynching Arthur? Do you really townread that pair that much that you'd suicide over it?

I'm aware this wasn't directed to me, but if I proceed squarely based off of reads, they're the most town pair left in the game.

also, lynching them first doesn't work at all because of the distinct possibility that we're in the Jester/Parama universe with Dunn as the +1, with us having no way whatsoever of telling wither Dunn or mhsmith is the +1.

anyway, to answer the questions in your last posts... SAD and Parama both being town doesn't work since Dunn and mhsmith cannot both be scum. SAD being town means we're in the universe in the last paragraph (which is why lynching him right now is bad), Parama being town probably means we're in the SAD/Jester/Dunn universe if I go off of reads but could mean just about anything.

tbh, I'm also tossing around the possibility that you're scum in my head, which would imply that the team is probably you/Parama/mhsmith and that you three wish to stop the plan in its current iteration from going through (because that means that SAD/scout, a town pair, wins) I'm not sure to what extent I buy the momentum shift onto SAD from you three - I do consider mhsmith part of this even though he's not doing it directly because I think the way he's attempting to berate Kagami for wanting to "suicide" as part of a plan because it's "suicide" and thus "game throwing" defies all reason, and he has seemed to express that he's suspicious of that pair in the most recent pages.

[pieguyn]

thing is that if you consider what configurations might be in the game after a Dunn/Kagami town flip, there aren't actually all that many. Parama, for one, is a safe lynch because SAD/{Jester, MDS}/mhsmith isn't particularly likely to exist. from there, I honestly just don't think the crossbus universe is what is going on here, so it'd be Jester/Parama/mhsmith - it could be but just given my reads and what's been going on in this game in general, they fit together so well.

I actually don't entirely disagree with Dunn's 4957 and it makes me pretty ok with my pair not being anywhere near endgame if he flips town, btw.

[pieguyn]

there might be scenarios where Jester/you are town, which would mean we probably are in the crossbus universe, but the thing is if we get a Dunn scum flip there's a chance we wouldn't even need to worry about it. and no, I don't really think there's a high-confidence way to tell who the final scum would be out of Dunn/mhsmith, but I could be wrong.

[pieguyn]

crossbus universe after a Dunn town flip would be one of SAD/Jester/Parama or SAD/Parama/mhsmith. I largely think the former isn't the universe we're in, but I am not 100% on the latter.

[pieguyn]

HS, we went from being so well-synced to our reads being the complete opposite of each other's.

if you try to throw out positionality and assess based on play only, why do you town read Jester and why do you town read Parama?

[pieguyn]

a big problem i see is that everybody is being a town leader and everybody is setting up their own win phases that might definitely win for them but there are always some people who are notably against it, and because everybody thinks their plan is better ofc they're not going to follow another persons' thingy

which is partly why i think logic is CRUCIAL right now and we need to get some things established as ABSOLUTE GENERALLY HELD FACT as a base for people to work off of instead of one bajillion lines of speculation half of which falls apart is one little assumption is incorrect

Kagami's and my strategy is to set up a completely objective plan, where you don't need to trust our alignments or reads besides assumptions that most people generally hold as true.

our current plan is to make their pair dead, and then from there, focus on the following... do you agree that Dunn being scum makes mhsmith almost guaranteed to be town, given his treatment of my pair all game and his disingenuous-sounding reads on both members of my pair today? if their pair flips town, what would you think about the game?

[pieguyn]

I don't mean for you to engage it right now, just keep it in mind and once you look at Dunn's posts about my pair this game day you should hopefully be able to see what I'm talking about.

[pieguyn]

it's also worth noting whenever you get around to it that unlike me/Kagami's plan, Dunn's plan was a completely subjective plan that relied entirely on people trusting him and that's a part of where my scum read is from - given Kagami and I coalescing on a plan that would be impossible to win against, or attempt to argue against (due to it being an objective plan), scum-him has no real option but to throw shade on my slot, propose an alternate plan with a bunch of contingencies to hopefully confuse people and persuade them to his side over ours on a trust basis, and hope no one actually thinks about it hard enough to realize what he's doing. it makes even less sense that he's been as insistent about this as he has been when he's been suspicious about Kagami as he has been all game and her plan specifically calls for their death first, whereas his plan never considers it unless you flip scum (lol) or "reevaluate at MYLO".

[pieguyn]

thought about it a bit more, and Kagami, do you see any universe where your pair and Parama/HS are both town?

if not, then I think we might as well just lynch Parama today, then if they're town/town then we must be in the SAD/{Jester, MDS}/Dunn universe.

[pieguyn]

barring one of those pairs being scum/scum, but key point is that we'd at least have my pair locked as town.

[pieguyn]

in terms of specific teams, I think it isn't SAD/Jester/mhsmith, since Kagami, and I don't think it's SAD/jester/Parama because I don't think Jester just goes and puts both his buddies in his strong town reads.

and I have no fucking clue how this game works since besides {Dunn, Parama, and mhsmith} everyone either looks really fucking town or has a bunch of people who knows his play claiming he's town, so obviously I'm either going wrong on a town read somewhere or everyone is collectively wrong about Jester.

[pieguyn]

Pie please tell me how 146 comes from anything, anything, anything other than town and how
Other speculation irrelevant I just think clearing Jester as town for you will help you solve the rest of the game

that post is terrible. it shows no critical thought whatsoever and reads to me like he felt like he had to come up with a push early game and didn't realize how completely terrible his push was.

the entire rest of Jester's play reads the same way to me and it's why I wish I had lynched him D1. his play here is so completely shit if he's town that it was really necessary to get him out of the way yesterday so I wouldn't have to bother considering that someone could potentially play this awfully and actually be town.

Would you agree that if Jester is town then Dunn is also town? I don't see scum!Dunn planning around a town/town pair for endgame. It would be super next level even for him.

If you all agree on that, I'm happy to suicide now. It would give us a town/town pair in Dunn/Kagami, or worst case scenario it would remove scum. That's assuming Kagami is town, which I now think she is.

I don't agree with Dunn being town, so probably not.

I maintain that you're giving smith a free pass for no good reason, pie. Could you spend 30m at some point looking at his interactions with the current lead scumspects -- {SAD, Jester, Parama}?

I already hold a pretty firm belief that if Jester is scum, mhsmith's defense of him is very suspect. I also hold a pretty firm belief that various things mhsmith and Parama have done over the course of the game day are indicative of a scum team without Dunn on it who doesn't want SAD to become the town pair post-your flip. I'll take a closer look at the SAD and Parama interactions.

besides that, I don't agree with Dunn being town, and Dunn and mhsmith aren't both scum, so I've mostly just not been focusing on him because Dunn has been higher priority for me (if Dunn were to flip town I'd want my pair gone, probably).

[pieguyn]

Kagami and I are saying the same thing in different words: he felt like he had to come up with some push he could make early game in order to appear like he was scum hunting, but didn't realize how forced it was.