California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)
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Setael Mafia Scum
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Hello all. I'm reading the thread and since I have to leave work I thought I'd just post what I have so far.
Zindaras is likely Town because of LoudMouthLee's post 62 accusing him. Oman also likely Town after this post and LML's post 68.
MoS (now Sarcastro) could be scum due to LML's post 75.
PlaysWithSquirrels (now Gaspar) votes Dragon Phoenix for being the 7th vote on Skruffs but has no problem with jeep placing the 8th vote and Oman placing the 9th vote not long after. Makes it look like the fact that he had a problem with the 7th vote was a lie. Also Post 100 looks very much like distancing from LML.
Oman "now IH" likely Town due to Post 88 which would be much too blatant of buddying up to LML. Also likely Town due to Thesp saying Oman's Skruffs vote was "off".
logicticus defends LML in post 105; I find it odd that he says he's getting good town vibes from Vitr because i kept thinking vitr was scum and was surprised when I saw he came up town when I checked the player list. Seems more likely logicticus knows vitr is town at this point due to prior info. Defends LML again in post 107. Not sure he would buddy up this obviously.
Adele (now Mr BuddyLee) likely Town from post 109. No reason to bus here if she was scum. Also looks Town due to LML's reaction to Adele in Post 136.
DragonPhoenix's post 115 looks scummy. Throws suspicion on both CubsFan, foolinc, jeep, logicticus, MoS, Skruffs and Zindy all for weak reasons, while at the same time clearing LML as Town. Also looks scummy in post 140 for telling us how "Town" his player analysis was. Jeep vote also looked scummy (I agree with Vitr's post 151 about it, even though he got talked out of it by MGM and xyzzy).
foolinc post 121 scummy. Staying under the radar and when he does post, just asks for clarification. He eventually gives a player analysis in which he is wishy washy on almost everyone, except jeep, MoS and skruffs and he merely parrots everyone else's arguments against them. clears LML as Town. This post looks very much like scum trying to look like they're scum hunting without actually doing so.
Talitha looks Town in post 134, especially if I'm right and playswithsquirrels (now Gaspar) is scum.
When Thesp comes in he distances from LML and likely PWS (now gaspar). He says "I like DP and xyzzy. I don't like LmL or Oman. I like the jeep hate. I find the Skruffs wagon uninteresting. Vote: LoudmouthLee, Oman, jeep, logicticus, Cogito Ergo Sum, PlaysWithSquirrels." I think he was distancing from LML and PWS and possibly DP which makes the others he named likely Town. This doesn't help much since I already knew CES was since I replaced him and xyzzy, skruffs and jeep are all dead. This leaves Oman and logicticus as likely Town (besides me of course).
LML's post 162 makes Adele (MrBuddyLee) and Zindy look Town. He picked apart their votes on him but not Thesp's.
DP's 170 has that condescending tone scum tend to get when they aren't being agreed with.
I won't make any conclusions or vote until I've read the whole thread, but that's what I've got so far.-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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And exactly where in the first 7 or so pages do you think I should've realized LmL and Thesp weren't on the same side? I'm glad you pointed this out so I don't read under that assumption anymore, but I think your FoS is incredibly off. If you were Town, rather than FoSing me, you'd have drawn the conclusion that I haven't read enough of the thread yet to know that, and that I'm more likely Town because I didn't have prior knowledge re: scum alignments.gaspar wrote:FoS: Saetel
You seem to be of the assumption/conclusion that LmL and Thesp were on the same side, and that LmL was actively distancing from others. This is.... well, completely different from what everybody else in the game has concluded. Do you have any particular reason to believe that LmL was Mafia and not a Serial Killer?
I'm pretty sure you're scum. I'll try not to let it cloud my judgment as I read the thread.-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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I did read the list of living and dead, but the fact that one said "Mass Murderer" and the other said "Parisian Mafia" did not make me think they were working separately. I just read it as "scum" and assumed they were on the same team. That may be partly due to inexperience, but I've already played in games where the mafia had unrelated titles or didn't seem to be related, but were working together (i.e. Mafia vs. Wolves). So, frankly, until I hit the part in the thread where that was discussed, it's not surprising that I wouldn't independently conclude that they're not working together.-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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I agree with Zindy. That analysis was only of the first few pages, and it was made under some incorrect assumptions so I'm starting from scratch. I saw that 2 scum had been killed and was reading almost solely looking for their interaction with others. I'm glad I only got to page 7 before I found out they weren't on the same team. So yeah... I'm still reading the thread, and I'm glad I didn't read the whole thing under a false assumption. I'll post once I've finished reading.-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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Ok I'm up to p. 18 and I'm going to post what I have so far. Rereading the first several pages, I did indeed change my mind about almost everything since I had been looking for interaction between LML and possible scum buddies. There isn’t nearly as much meat in the first few pages if LML was an SK rather than part of a mafia team. Disregard my first post.
Though my predecessor FOS’d him for it, I agree with Vitr’s post 151 that “It kinda feels like DP pushed the disagreement between jeep and him to the point where he could accuse jeep of something. It is essentially a strategy disagreement. The accusation of "backpeddling" seems an attempt to turn that into more than it really is.”
Foolinc and DP could be scum after Thesp’s 160. Thesp points out something he disagrees with foolinc about but doesn’t include him in his top 6 scums. Says he likes DP without giving any reasons.
Oman 176 looks scummy - opportunistic skruffs vote; seems to be working hard to give enough supplemental reasons to existing case to not look scummy
Zindy 182 looks town; also likely town because jeep (BM) was NK'd night 1 - too much negative between zindy and that role for him to NK it
DP's thesp comment in 231 looks scummy; skruffs makes some good points against DP in 264 –
298- I can see IH being scum after his intro to the game. Replacing in when he did, scum would not want to support the Skruffs wagon. Rather, they’d treat it just like IH did. He also seemed to be careful about Thesp. Everything he said about Thesp could be expected from a scumbuddy. Also in this post, based on the fact that he doesn’t say a word about foolinc but then lists him as scum, I would guess that foolinc was thrown in for distancing and is also likely scum with IH.skruffs wrote:You are voting me, and if I come up innocent, Cubs is very likely scum. But you didn't address, what if I come up scum, as you seem to be so sure I am (based on your votes)? Does that make cubs likely innocent? It's not hard for me to theorize that you only did one half of the equation because you already know I'm not scum. Error of omission.
304 – tamaz makes a good case against foolinc. Right after, Talitha draws him out in conversation about her condorcet. Possible distraction from foolinc case but could be she just wants to defend against this before it blows up. Then in Post 330, IH attempts to blow it up. Throws suspicion on both Talitha and cubsfan. Can definitely see IH's post here as distraction from foolinc. It worked since the foolinc case was pushed to the background.
Post 345 – If IH is scum, Pooky probably isn’t. “Is anyone else having a deep unsettling suspicion of IH right now?” doesn’t look like bussing.
349 foolinc player analysis is very off from my read of the game. I can see a possibility of foolinc – IH along with Thesp scum group.
BM’s entry into the game. Makes a point about DP I hadn’t noticed: “Interesting to see the numbers jumping to the aid of DP, despite the early stage of the game. Xyzzy is among these in post 156.” I need to go back and look more closely at that.
384 IH oh so helpfully clarifying the game, and not posting any actual game content.
I agree with Adele’s post 388 and subsequent vote on DP. After the discussion regarding the possibility of a 2nd mafia family, DP comes off looking scummy. BM, logicticus and Zindaras’ posts commenting on it look Town, especially in comparison to Thesp's reaction to the same argument.
IH’s 400 is scummy. Attempts to discredit Adele and throw suspicion on BM.
Gaspar’s entry post (401) was remarkably pro-Town. He made two statements I don’t see scum making.
I am interested to see if Gaspar pointed back here later in the game once there were a few bodies lying around.gaspar wrote: I would strongly suggest that, later in the game, players come back and revisit this entire debate. Obviously, I don't yet know what it'll lead to, but I can pretty much guarantee that it will have some Good Information when all is said and done. I'm not sure whether that information will come out until we've seen some bodies, but this is the sort of stuff that people should absolutely pay attention to when looking back on Day One.”
Also
Based on where I'm at so far, players most likely to be scum are DP, foolinc, and IH with Oman as a possibility but that's not as solid. Not going to vote until I've finished the thread.gaspar wrote:An extension of the above point, forcing scum to constantly list all of their top suspects in order limits their ability to suddenly or strategically launch a new attack on a different player. While it does not completely eliminate this possibility ("I just did a re-read on Adele's posts, and I find her to be scummy for these reasons...."), it forces scums to keep up some similar threads of thought/suspicion from the very start of the day. It's *MUCH* easier to catch flip-flops and inconsistencies if we have repeated detailed lists of suspects.
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Setael Mafia Scum
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Setael Mafia Scum
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I just had an analysis through page 30 I was cleaning up before submitting and my laptop crashed and lost it all. I could spit nails right now.
I will have time tomorrow to finish my reread but without having time right now to redo all the reasons behind it, none of the people I find suspicious are currently being wagoned. Unless something drastic happens in the next 30 pages, I won't be voting for any of the wagons anyway.
My suspicion list: Dragon Phoenix, IH, foolinc and Tamuz-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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I'm on p. 41 and still not liking any of the leading wagons, though my opinions have changed somewhat. The 10 pages I have read today:
IH defending Thesp. Subtly, but still defending.IH wrote:I haven't actually seen Thesp coming to Skruffs rescue
718 thesp makes Gaspar look town with “Your defense of CES is noted.”
739 dani asks mgm for secret word
746 IH still pushing at logic for figuring out MGM’s breadcrumb so quickly. This argument makes IH look scummy and logic look town since IH’s logic makes no sense to me. It seems a lot more likely that scum would avoid being the one to figure out MGM’s hidden code, since it draws attention to them and can bring up the very argument IH is making against logic.
747 either Tamuz and IH aren’t mafia together or Tamuz just pulled off some really impressive distancing
749 skruffs seems not to know about secret words
748 thesp’s defense of logic makes it unlikely logic is scum – could be distancing from IH
752 foolinc says he used the secret word in a post day 1
Zindy said he has a secret word
LML says he also has a secret word
This logic makes no sense. I can see no reason why scum would be motivated to talk about secret words. Townies, on the other hand, would have no fear of doing so. DP came off looking very scummy for accusing Dani of being scum for bringing up secret words.DP, post 764 wrote:Dani Banani, replacing Mastermind of Sin D1: post 666 (!) is as scummy as they come. Building trust with two players and suggesting a play for the day without any motivation. Post 739 does not sit well with me either. Why on earth bring up the secret word thing as townie - when for all you know [if you are a townie] that scum do not have secret words? Likely scum.
Logic’s 772 is very Town
776 It's looking like I was wrong in my read of the first 30 pages. Foolinc looks very Town in this post. Pooky and Talitha vote him soon after, so my impression seems to not be widely shared.
781 Thesp votes IH without giving a reason – possible distancing. Says he enjoys the Adele hate – unlikely distancing statement, more likely adele is Town.
790 Gaspar points out that foolinc’s conclusion should’ve been that skruffs was town not scum. Though this may be the case, I don’t think it’s a scumtell for foolinc. Mafia know skruff’s alignment and would be careful not to make this “error” gaspar is pointing out.
808 – 811 : IH and foolinc unlikely to be scum together
824 DP opportunistically jumps on the foolinc wagon – gives a scummy sounding explanation for the vote
831 tamuz opportunistically pushes foolinc wagon while hiding behind a skruffs vote
857 dani (sarcasto) unlikely to be scum after thesp says to dani:
Thesp also says in this post “IH needs to die” without giving reasons, presenting a case on IH or really trying to convince anyone. Still looks like distancing.thesp wrote:That's the thing - I think you're lying about your reasoning for bringing up the secret word. I agree I think you have a secret word. Was I unclear on that point? Asking in the way you did makes a heck of a lot of sense if you're scum with a secret word, and afraid that other people might not have one - testing the waters to see what comes up.
874 DP basically lurking – pops in and says ‘no incentive to change my vote’ – scummy
This pots makes gaspar look town but I think his conclusion about IH is wrong. I find it hard to believe that IH would be “stupid town” and give info to scum. More likely he is scum who felt the need to subtly tell his scum buddies that they should NOT claim to be the count.gaspar, post 876 wrote:IH, I say this only because I think you're town and that you're playing really carelessly right now. STOP GIVING INFORMATION TO THE SCUMS. Your post 868 gave out information on two different accounts (that none of the non-counterclaimers are probably the real Count/Dantes), and that your role is a person from Fresno and not a character from the book.
For somebody who was so disgruntled with Skruffs spewing information at the start of the day, you seem to have just soft-claimed yourself. Tack on your theorizing about BM's death last night, and you've given more information about who you are/aren't. For the love of Pete, think before you post.
880 DP does not look like he's bussing; foolinc once again coming off town
DP 889 and IH in 892 and 894 re: “password” vs. “secret word”. Both DP and IH’s posts come off looking scummy. IH has never actually said he has a secret word, but has tried to subtly imply it. Same with DP.
QFT. I think Skruffs was right about IH.skruffs, post 901 wrote:Now that IH has claimed to not be from the book AND fossed any claims to the main character, that the game is titled after, i am pretty sure he's'a good lynch.
I have a theory about the game's setup, but. Not sure if talking about it is kosher. IH is not only fishing, he's'propagandizing.
Also QFTskruffs wrote:IH just baited town by saying "I'm pretty sure anyone from the book is scum" - Absolutely FIshing!!! Why would he say that?? Because he seems to know he's from OUTSide the book. Has anyone ELSE claimed to be from outside the book? CUbs? LML? BM did, but he also claimed to be from Paris in 1807.
Question about IH's theory that "People from the book are scum"...
Everyone who has claimed, has claimed roles from inside the book or about the book. Presumable, IH has no connection to the book. He is therefore NOT Dantesian in nature. THIS DESERVES TO BE CONSIDERED.
907 there’s a chance Pooky is trying to distract from skruff’s IH case – says thinks IH is scummy in 910 but other than that just seems to be distracting from it by posting about anything but that right after skruffs post.
919 gaspar excuses IH by saying he doesn’t “have his head on straight”.
924 IH capitalizes on gaspar’s trust on him by saying “Even though I did indeed push the soft claim as being scummy, I think that Gaspar and the above is the most logical.... It would have to be a horrible gambit for Skruffs scum to push through.”
IH is basically backpedaling on skruffs, but hiding it behind gaspar’s summation of the whole argument wherein he said IH is just confused Town. IH's post here sounds like scum whose argument is not gaining popularity, and after what gaspar said about it I think scum would do just this.
IH’s comments on foolinc in this post way too over the top for buddying up. Looks like IH is mafia, and foolinc isn’t.
Tamuz 933 once again feels like distracting from skruff’s post on IH
Not sure what to make of Pooky’s angry blow up at skruffs but then IH defends pooky and says “I don't think Pooky is too high a priority on my list atm, as I mostly think he's town.” If I'm right about IH, this is likely distancing from Pooky.
the first part qft. The second part is wrong imo. Don't think mrbuddylee would be scum with IH.mrbuddylee, 943 wrote:if ih is scum he's artful and attentive--seems town to me.
QFT – talitha is probably not scum if IH istalitha post 946 wrote:Something about the way IH (see post 924) is reacting to every single post and bumping people up and down his list as he reads singular posts seems very mechanical to me... I can understand players who play by their gut, and I can understand players who insist on trying to apply logic, but I tend to believe that IH is trying to give the appearance of hunting scum, while not actually hunting scum.
Ah but he's already second on my list, so that's good.
Yes, actually.IH's response to Talitha, 952 wrote:You're joking, correct? Me trying to make sure everything is covered is scummy?
976 foolinc claims doc. I definitely believe the claim. foolinc has been looking very town in his last few posts.
Thesp’s 978 is odd re: IH. Says that several people saying they’re getting pro-town reads from IH when he’s getting the opposite, when actually several people had recently voiced suspicion of IH.
Mr Buddy Lee’s posts since replacing in have all seemed very Town. (this is up to p. 41)
So I had hoped to finish the thread before deadline but it looks like that's not going to happen. Based on my read through p. 41 I'm going to:
vote: IH, DP, Tamuz, Pooky-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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Setael Mafia Scum
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I was able to finish reading the thread during the night and here are my thoughts on the last chunk.
I find it odd that talitha is assuming there are 2 groups because there were 2 deaths. What about a town vig? Feels like maybe she knows there are 2 groups.talitha, 1016 wrote:Not necessarily foolinc, as it seems we have 2 scum groups. The scum would probably know from the size of their group that there's likely another family out there. I think Lee's point about IH is the best evidence that we have so far.
And yeah - it looks like Thesp's group must have killed Skruffs. Interesting.
When I first read this I though he was saying his doc claim was faked. It isn't so odd that he wasn't NKd since scum could use that as a WIFOM way to get us to waste a lynch. However, I do think that this post of his feels off, as though it's exactly what mafia would have pre-planned to say the next day after not getting NK'd. Starting to look like a fake claim even if that'sfoolinc, 1017 wrote:I think that it's odder that I'm not dead. I don't care how bad I played day 2, you'd think that someone would have nightkilled me. Hopefully, the the Night write up will help clear things up. Oh and so I don't forgot: faked.notwhat he meant by faked.
1020 IH claims (WHY?) and says he has no role name, just innocent fresnoite
Though he doesn’t point it out, what IH is saying could be applied to himself as well – seems like he wants the town to think “if IH was scum, he would take a more confirmable claim from the book and he certainly wouldn’t say he has NO role name” without him actually having to say it.IH wrote:Also, I know this is Wifom, but wouldn't you think scum would take a more confirmable claim from the book? Thesp could have even taken a more confirmable claim by playing off of the fears that the count was not protown (If he's even in this game)
Thesp's role doesn't have a Wikipedia entry...
Zindy explains he sees no reason for 2 groups, talitha explains she was thinking there’d be 2 groups because one is named “Parisian mafia” then Ih says to talitha “So.... you know you're abilities and members and maintain there should be another?” Sounds like something scum would say to a townie who is being attacked for a mistake.
QFTMBL, 1046 wrote:IH's claim is inappropriate and bizarrely timed. Overly proactively defensive, reads like a play from a scum overnight playbook.
The more people accuse Talitha of having insider knowledge when she speculated about 2 mafia groups, the more I think that if she was mafia she wouldn’t have said anything about it at all.
1047 Talitha anti IH… what changed?
1064 MBL’s analysis of Thesp’s play. Says “Glued to IH all day, gives very few ongoing specifics. Sticking doggedly to a scumpartner or riding the easy lynch? I'd lean towards the latter.”
How was IH the easy lynch? I see no reason to make the conclusion MBL did here unless he has a reason to defend IH
1137 MBL points out possible connection between DP and IH
1138 IH looks like he’s trying to distance from DP
when foolinc protected LML there was only one NK… is LML telling the truth when he self hammers in 1278? (i.e. Is poky scum?) I need to go back and look at the night results and which LML claimed to be responsible for.
1311 foolinc doesn’t die yet again – Vitr is NK’d. makes no sense. I’m doubting foolinc’s claim. He claimed to protect gaspar, so if foolinc is scum gaspar likely isn’t.
1335 MBL says Marcus Wesson didn’t work alone – family members did many of the kills. If there are 2 families, MBL is likely not in LML’s but could be in Thesp’s.
*The secret passageway to servant’s quarters… I marked this to keep an eye out to see if anything else would be said about it. Nothing yet. Any ideas on what that was supposed to mean? I got the impression LML had kidnapped someone and was hiding them but now that nothing's come of it I don't know.
1337 foolinc discounts MBL’s 2 family idea and says LML was an SK working alone
foolinc then gives his take on the reasons LML self hammered
These don't all make sense with an SK imo. Why would an SK care about limiting damage? #2 is a possibility just because he was frustrated and fed up. 3 I doubt - I don't see LML as a pro-Town SK. If anything I think the info he gave at the end was designed to throw us off. (Anyone know general stats about how often SK's try to help the town? I've never seen it happen.)foolinc wrote:There are three possibilites:
1. To limit the damage
2. Just to screw with the rest of the players (aka because he was pissed off)
3. He really believed that it was a scum led wagon and sac himself for the town.
On the other hand, I can see a lot of motivation for him to say he was SK if he was part of a family
1) To prevent us from looking back for links between him and his mafia team
2) To cast suspicion on players not on his team
3) To not give any further info or tells to anyone not on his team
4) To give him a chance to lie about which deaths his team is responsible for in order to throw off anyone looking back for connections
IMO foolinc is off for assuming what he did and giving 3 reasons for it that make no sense.
1339 gaspar points out possible link between DP and MBL
CES’ explanation that he was referring to those who advocated a LML lynch (a group he did not consider himself a part of) makes perfect sense. I don’t agree with logic’s reasoning here. The thing I find most interesting is that the next 3 posts are made by 3 of the players who seem most scummy at this point and they all say the same thing, discounting logic’s reason for voting CES. I can’t see 3 scums repeating each other like that.logic wrote:I am with Pooky on not liking CES' "You guys got lucky" comment. It seperates us from him, us being the majority of the players. Even if I was 100% certain that LML was town and was completely against lynching him and defended him the whole way to no avail and he came up town, I would say "We got lucky." not "You guys got lucky." So I dont buy that defense.
vote CES
I disagree. Scum would see LML as a mislynch and would be expecting him to come up Town. DP’s statement would likely be made by scum who is trying to cover their bases for when LML comes up Town.gaspar wrote:2) The only person who really clearly expressed "I'm voting LmL because his response to this whole issue is what's scummy" is DP. Plus points for him, in retrospect.
1367 gaspar, foolinc and sarcasto arguing with talitha about LML lying about killing xyzzy. It seems to be forgotten that he faked having used “lace” as a verb on that dating site which means he was motivated to prove he uses it regularly which REALLY makes it look like it was the way he killed xyzzy and he was trying to prove it wasn’t.
1376 again we see what looks like IHscum trying to buddy up to gaspartown where IH compliments gaspar and carefully never opposes him at all.
1379 scummy. Trying too hard to appear active and pro-Town without actually doing anything
1380 talitha points out that foolinc said in post 51 that “Baron Danglars, Count de Morcerf aka Fernand Mondego, Monsieur De Villefort, and Gaspard Caderousse since they are the four that send Edmond Dantès to Château d'If.”
I don’t think foolinc would make this comment if he was part of that mafia team, or at least not if his team was made up of those exact characters.
If LML really was SK it seems like he’d have just said “cubs’ duels could only kill actual mafia, not the SK.” If he’s mafia, it makes more sense that instead of saying this, he said he had a one shot immunity to a kill
1462 MBL says he wants to solve the IH problem – what is he referring to?
*I'm town and gaspar seems pro-town, which leaves DP as likely scumgaspar wrote:Saetel's bringing up the D1 Condorcet debate is interesting -- no, I don't believe I have gone back and looked over it. I was thinking at the time that scum would try to flock onto this debate, because it gives the appearance of contribution without actually hunting for scums.
Mgm is dead town
VitR is dead town
Jeep/BM is dead town
ZZ is dead town
CES and DP are the only ones (other than me) left on the list. DP is fairly high on my list still, whereas CES (now Saetel) is middle-of-the-road.
Obviously I'm still alive... but I know I'm protown.
That's something I'll have to think about in the coming days.
I’d like to re-bring up something asked of IH that he never provided – a link to his best game as mafia.
Tamuz’ 1515 looks like distancing – after I state that I think he is scum with IH, he safely votes for IH (meaning it’s close to deadline and VERY unlikely IH will get enough support to be lynched) without trying to convince anyone else or present a solid case
So with logic as the NK, it looks like the mafia bought his mason claim which seems to have been a lie. It also looks like our claimed doc didn't protect our most obvious power role (logic, whose claim none of us had any reason to not believe). Unless I've forgotten about a bigger claim that foolinc would be motivated to proect, and based on the fact that he keeps not getting NK'd, I no longer believe foolinc's claim. I'll wait to vote to see what he has to say.
@foolinc: Who did you protect and why?-
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He has been asked why he has to say his word before and never responded to the question. Maybe any of the scum who are fake claiming have to say "fake" every day that the town doesn't wise up and lynch them. That would be so awesomely too obvious. If I ever mod, I'm totally doing that.
Either way, I don't buy it. This is the 3rd night the mafia has opted not to NK the doc which makes no sense since he is a big hindrance to them and can potentially mess up their NKs. I think he didn't protect the mason (or at least the player he should've thought was a mason if he was town) because he's not really a doc. Oh and here's another thing I thought of. If he really was a doc, the mafia would've expected him to protect logic because of the mason claim and they would therefore not have targeted logic for fear of wasting their NK on the person the doc would OBVIOUSLY be protecting. The fact that they targeted logic with no worries that he would be protected by a doc cements it for me.
vote: foolinc-
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Interesting that you totally ignored my post and vote on you.
Here are a few possibilities:foolinc wrote:If I was scum, what would be the reasoning for me doing what I am doing?
1) The one I've already mentioned, that scum who have fake claimed have to say "fake" once each day.
2) You know something about secret words we don't... like maybe if mafia say their secret word every day they are immune to investigation. That's a pretty big benefit, so it makes sense that you would not be allowed to hide the word in your text but have to make it obvious the way you do.
3) Or maybe it's just that if we say our secret word each day we are immune to NK or something like that so you're hoping it will make you immune to investigation.
4) You don't really have a secret word and are trying to be sure we all think you have one. (I have an ongoing theory that scum don't have one since some of the players I find scummiest have never said they do and have danced around it trying toimplythat they do without actually saying they do).
I don't believe the superstition answer for a second. If that's true, why didn't you say the first time you made it so obvious you were saying your word "Hey guys I'm kind of superstitious so I'm going to say my word every day so a black cat doesn't eat me." Superstition is not a good enough reason to do something that makes you stand out so much. If you are town, it is very anti-town for you to do something like that without giving a reason up front. I also find it odd that you draw attention to it the way you do. If you just wanted to say it because you're superstitious why wouldn't you hide it in your text as subtly as possible?
This also made no sense. A lot of us have never used our secret word or even hinted that we have one and nothing bad has happened to us either... so where are you getting this logic?foolinc wrote:I'm looking at it this way. I've used it every day and nothing bad has happened because of it. So why would I stop?
So that reason didn't fly...
Wanna try again?-
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I suppose there could be a mafia roleblocker. It is weird that foolinc hasn't been counterclaimed if he's lying. If there's a real doc out there who hasn't counterclaimed in order to stay hidden, that real doc would've protected logicticus. *sigh* I still don't believe superstition as a reason, but I'll let it go for now.
unvote-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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You must have missed this post:
If someone is targeted by more than one person, does the doc protect fail?setael wrote:I suppose there could be a mafia roleblocker. It is weird that foolinc hasn't been counterclaimed if he's lying. If there's a real doc out there who hasn't counterclaimed in order to stay hidden, that real doc would've protected logicticus. *sigh* I still don't believe superstition as a reason, but I'll let it go for now.
unvote
Does anyone else believe the "superstition" answer?-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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IH's post did read very townie, especially the vote since it seems unlikely scum would so blatantly OMGUS. I can't help but agree with Silent Lee that "you just made your monthly "post that reads protown"." In fact, IH looked like heknowsDP is scum when he said:
What a coincidence, because if DP comes up scum, I will be suspicious of IH. This statement very much felt like he knows DP will come up scum and would then like to somehow get me lynched for it.IH wrote:If DP comes up scum, I will be suspicious of Setael.
In fact, DP's defense post was quite lacking. He pretty much just called my arguments crap and left it at that. I think they're both scum, but I'd like to see what IH does if DP comes up scum.
Unvote, vote: DP, IH-
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I think it's more likely that there's a mafia roleblocker that has been blocking foolinc. Another mafia group or an SK would be equally concerned about the doc protecting a claimed power role, so they wouldn't be any more likely to target him. A mafia roleblocker would better explain the mafia's confidence in picking off claimed power roles without being worried about wasting their kill.IH wrote:First of all, why would the scum kill a claimed power role that the town would expect doc protection? That would implicate foolinc even more. While it is entirely possible the scum didn't think that through, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and base it's possible there is another mafia group, another Sk, or some form of a vig out there.-
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I think if we all come together on a DP lynch, we'll hit scum. His last post telling us "we're handing the game to scum on a silver platter" just sounds like something scum would say to sound town.
Maybe anyone who thinks I'm wrong about DP and thinks he's town tell me why you think he's town. Otherwise vote him.-
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What I meant was that you had not expressed suspicion of me/my predecessor until I accused you of being scum. Can you please point out where you stated your suspicion of CES?DP wrote:Ever since my post 764, I have listed your predecessor (based on post 642) and later you as possible scum, typically in third or second place in my condorcets. I have given severak examples since that first post of things I found scummy of the two of you. A bit cheap to suggest with the question that it is an OMGUS.-
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How is Zindie the best bet? I'm not feeling the Zindie wagon at all. There are AT LEAST two, maybe three scum still out there and they could easily have steered the focus away from one of themselves (Zindie if he was scum) without looking obvious. I have no doubt that if Zindie was scum, there would be no wagon on him right now. DP or IH are the only ones I'd be willing to vote for. Some of you townies need to change your votes.-
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Feels very much like DP knows Zindaras will come up town and is planting insurance for when that happens. I won't be voting Zindy.DP wrote:I don't sense any real scum vibe from Zindaras - except that I am beginning to become a bit sceptical with respect to his passiveness as well. Silent Lee and Zindaras are STILL not on the voting board, and that is just simply bad, whether you are town or scum. Since no-one is wanting to follow my Sarcastro lead, and a switch to my #2 suspect is hardly better, I will probably switch to Pooky or Zindaras if he does not contribute more. I will have a re-read of today's happenings first.-
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Setael Mafia Scum
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Ok. I did a quick reread of Zindaras and Pooky. I'm really not seeing Zindaras as scum, and though I think there are 2 players (you know who I'm talking about) that are WAY better options than Pooky, there's a chance Pooky is scum. More so than Zindaras anyway. I especially don't like his arguments against Zindaras late today. If he's being apathetic across the board, it's hardly a scum tell.
Anyway. More comfortable throwing my weight behind a Pooky lynch than a Zindy lynch.
vote:Pooky, DP, IH-
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After 1809 and 1810 I'm feeling DP and Talitha scum together. DP saying Talitha's reaction to Gaspar is scummy felt off, and then Talitha totally disregarding DP's accusations looked like scum ignoring a partner's distancing attempts so it doesn't go anywhere. The third could be Zindaras or IH. I'd be willing to vote for any of those 4.-
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@Talitha: Why do they have to convince me they're not scum? If the scum are in my top 4, then Silent Lee and Sarcastro are town aren't they? It's not so much what they have done to make me trust them, it's what you, DP, IH and Zindaras have done that's looked scummy. I'm much weaker on Zindie - a lot of why I think he's scum is that pooky was town. Seems like one of yesterday's wagons necessarily would've been scum. Plus I'm getting the feeling that I was making some incorrect assumptions about him. I'm weaker on IH than I've been all game, as well. That's probably just because he's good at being scum.-
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I don't believe DGB's claim unless he's hidden in his closet every night. If he has any info, he'd have posted results when he role claimed. I also agree that if Zindie had that role, he'd have claimed long ago as soon as he got close to being lynched. It's a pretty safe claim, really, since he isn't able to clear or condemn anyone. Power roles with night abilities would probably read as "not asleep in their beds" or whatever as well.
I wouldn't be too pissed if we all go along with Sarcastro's mass role claim idea, but I don't really think it's helpful at this point. I'd rather just lynch DGB.-
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If Gaspar is telling the truth about his claim, he was not out of bed last night, since he's already killed Dantes, right?
So... if DGB turns out to be telling the truth, we know Gaspar is scum.
At this point I believe Gaspar over DGB. My only hang-up is that I really can't see a replacement coming in, not reading the thread and claiming THAT if he's scum. However, that hang up is outweighed by the fact that if he was town, he'd have given those results as soon as he claimed. The time between his claim at 1:16 and his results at 4:40 is plenty of time to look over the thread and make sure your results work with who was in the game when, etc.
Anyway, I'm happy with my vote on DGB.-
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Actually, that logic makes no sense. If Gaspar is scum and you are telling the truth, he wouldn't want you lynched because if you come up town and were telling the truth, he's caught.
The "I'm busy and I have a life" excuse doesn't fly here imo. If you had time to post at all, to be online long enough to claim, then you had long enough to give your results. The only reason you wouldn't is if you were fabricating them.-
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If we mislynch today, it's game over, right? Scum gets a NK tonight and then it'll be 3 scum vs. 3 townies. If Sarc vigs a scum we'd be at lylo tomorrow, but if he vigs a townie it's also game over unless we lynch scum today.
I'm thinking more and more that DGB would be a mislynch, and those pushing for her lynch are scum. She's not careful enough to be scum. She's done a lot of dumb things that scum would (and has) capitalized on such as not voting Gaspar and yet voting Silent Lee, not claiming her results right away, defending DP in this last post, and thinking Talitha was talking about her in regards to notable Fresno residents when she obviously was referring to me. I don't think scum would be this sloppy. I don't think scum would say they found Gaspar out of bed if they were making up that claim and results. This is the clincher for me. If Gaspar can get DGB lynched, it won't matter that it will then be obvious he's scum when we find out DGB was telling the truth, because by then it will be too late and scum will have won (unless Sarc vigs scum today).
So if I'm right about DGB, Gaspar is scum because he was found out of bed last night. The neutral claim is not true, though he may have had a task as mafia to kill the real Dantes. I think Talitha is scum after this last exchange between she and Gaspar. Her recent arguments against me looked very scummy as well. She is accusing me of being instrumental in not getting zindie lynched. I didn't vote for him, but other than that how was I "instrumental"? And what about everyone else whose play was more "instrumental" than mine? Just gonna ignore them? Talitha's claim is one we could expect from scum and her weak argument against me actually blows up in her face. If I was scum making up a role name, by her own logic I’d have been careful to pick a name off that list. Oh, and there’s hers on the list: “Ickey Woods - Former Cincinnati Bengals fullback”. Pretty far down the list, unlikely to be in the game. A perfect choice for a scum's fake claim.
The third scum I'm not so sure about. I could see Silent Lee, DP or even IH as the third. I'm not sure about DP's claim. First, it's weird that he spelled it wrong (he said "I am Sindbad the Sailor"). Also, he waited until everyone else had claimed so he had no worry of being counterclaimed which makes sense since that role would be seen as obvtown, but could possibly have been countered. Could also just be that he wasn't asked to claim until the end so it's a null tell.
I'd like some clarification on the gift giving. Who all has received a gift and how was it given? I have not been given any gifts and I also haven't ever used my secret word, though I do have one. I would recommend Gaspar as the vig choice. It seems pretty clear that he's scum but if by chance I'm wrong, then we know DGB was lying and can lynch her and tomorrow we'll be at lylo. If Gaspar is vigged and comes up scum, I'd have to reread but I do remember him defending IH, and I can definitely see he and Talitha as scum together.-
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If Sarcastro is town, then I was obviously wrong about DGB since that would mean DGB is scum for saying she had a result N4 when Sarc blocked her. It would also mean I'm wrong about Gaspar since if DGB is scum, Gaspar is definitely town. I think a vig kill of DGB would be stellar right now since if she comes up scum, it would clear both Sarcastro and Gaspar as townies. If she comes up town, both Sarc and Gaspar are scum (this will obviously not be the outcome because if this were true, Sarc would not vig her).
I say use your vig kill now since it's almost certainly going to give us enough info to ensure we lynch one of the scums today. In fact, using it now is the only town thing to do because if we go and mislynch a townie before you make your vig kill, the game's over. So anyway, vig on.-
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I agree with Gaspar saying that he and Sarc are not cleared by DGB's death, but if either of them are scum, DGB did some impressive distancing. Sarc especially I'd say is virtually cleared since his roleblocking claim sealed DGB's fate. If not for his claim, I think scum could've pulled off a mislynch (I for one was not at all convinced DGB was the one lying until Sarc's claim). As for Gaspar, I've never seen a gambit like that one either - scum saying they had results that proved a scumbuddy was lying and setting up either Gaspar or her for sure getting lynched. I guess maybe if they saw their lynch as inevitable and everything they were doing was aimed at distancing from scum buddies it's possible. DGB never had a chance to communicate with her scum partner(s) so it wasn't pre-planned with them. I guess there's also a chance she was just sloppy and accidentally implicated a scumbuddy.
This was because of yesterday's zindaras wagon. You've probably addressed this, but do you still suspect Gaspar and Zindaras were scumbuddies?sarcastro wrote:Just to let everyone know, Gaspar and Zindaras are scumbuddies. I guarantee it.
I'm very much thinking Talitha is scum for several reasons. She has totally ignored my points against her in 1899.
I think she made up a safe claim, and I think it's suspicious that she didn't address this accusation.Setael, 1899 wrote:I think Talitha is scum after this last exchange between she and Gaspar. Her recent arguments against me looked very scummy as well. She is accusing me of being instrumental in not getting zindie lynched. I didn't vote for him, but other than that how was I "instrumental"? And what about everyone else whose play was more "instrumental" than mine? Just gonna ignore them? Talitha's claim is one we could expect from scum and her weak argument against me actually blows up in her face. If I was scum making up a role name, by her own logic I’d have been careful to pick a name off that list. Oh, and there’s hers on the list: “Ickey Woods - Former Cincinnati Bengals fullback”. Pretty far down the list, unlikely to be in the game. A perfect choice for a scum's fake claim.
Her attempt to link me and zindaras is even more suspect now that zindaras has come up scum. If she knew zindaras was going to come up scum, it makes sense for her to plant seeds that would link townies to him.
I'm going to reread the past few days before voting. I do think the zindaras wagons that didn't succeed could be quite telling now that our suspect list is narrowed down. It might be a few days before I get to it.-
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Why are you defending Talitha on what I believe is a scum's fake claim? Don't you think it'd be more pro-town to let her answer for herself? (Especially in light of the fact that she has thus far avoided doing so.)Gaspar wrote:EBWOP: Looking at the list of people from Fresno... it's alphabetical by last name, Setael. Of course Ickey Woods is near the bottom.-
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DP, you misunderstand me. I am saying that YOUR claim is likely to be in the game. Therefore, if it was made up you would be motivated to wait and claim last. At this point, the main problem I have with Talitha's claim is that she's posted 4 times since I questioned it and has ignored my arguments. I don't care if the list is alphabetical - I'm saying scum who was claiming before others (unlike DP) would be more cautious when making up a name. Being sure it's on that list and picking one unlikely to be in the game are two things Talitha's claim fits with - especially in light of what she said about mine. She obviously had thought through the fact that she thinks all the townies names should be on that list. I think she thought this through when she chose a fake name to claim.-
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DP wrote:The recent exchanges makes me prefer Tailtha over Setael as town. I don;t see anything happening that could make me want to change my prime lynch candidate. I'm ready to vote. Anything stopping us?
Let's roll.
Vote Silent Lee, Setael, Tallitha, IH, [Gaspar, Sarcastro]
Does that clear up why I think you're blindly following DP?gaspar wrote:Vote: SilentLee, Setael, [Talitha, DragonPhoenix], [IH, Sarcastro], No Lynch, Gaspar
I've already addressed this. I think it's likely that one of the scum roles included the task of killing the real Dantes.gaspar wrote:What do you think of my claim? Of Mr. Grey's existence and disappearance?-
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Ok, that works for an explanation, though please notice that you did not state any of this before mirroring DP's vote. Your first statement is actually incorrect since you could say "anything that moves and isn't Sarcastro" just as well. You could even throw IH in there as something that moves that I'm not currently jumping at, even though I thought he was scum earlier in the game.
I don't think SilentLee is scum and I don't think Sarcastro is scum. Your post which looked very much like following DP made my scumdar flare up so I moved Talitha down and focused on you two as a scum pair. I was obviously wrong about Zindaras/DGB all game so I don't trust my radar all that well and I really need to reread the Zindy wagons that failed. At this point, I would vote for any of you 3 to ensure a lynch today. I would actually vote Silent Lee or IH as well to avoid a no lynch, but I'd feel better about a lynch of either DP, Talitha or you.-
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If Sarc agreed with DP and posted a condorcet matching his like you did, I think I would've had a different reaction. Rather than jumping to the conclusion that he and DP are scum buddies like I did with you, I think I'd have looked back on my play to see what made someone I think is very likely town suspect a link that doesn't exist. And then I'd try to show them where they're wrong. I really don't think Sarc would do that though, for the same reasons I thought you looked scummy for doing it. DP very likely could be scum, so I don't see townies blindly following her logic (which is what your vote looked like).-
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@Sarcastro: I see the error in my assumption. Because I know DP is wrong about a SilentLee/Me connection I was assuming everyone I think is Town would disagree with it.
If you were town, you'd see a lot to discuss and you'd be willing to defend yourself. This statement was a major scumtell imo - refusing to give any content at all in order to avoid looking scummy right before deadline. Much safer to stay quiet and hope you get your Silent Lee mislynch.DP wrote:Not much to discuss further as far as I am concerned-
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