New Year's Eve Masquerade Ball - [Game Over]

[MiniDeathStar]

But he's also a god tier player and I'm very reluctant to start townreading him just because he's doing stuff a villager would do.

[MiniDeathStar]

Fml this game is so hard. What did I get myself into.

I should so stick to newbie games.

[MiniDeathStar]

*sigh*

UNVOTE: Smith

I think I'll invest some more effort into sorting you but I'm so tired now.

Team Hammerlust, please don't hate me for this.

[MiniDeathStar]

@FakeGod:

I will be V/LA until Wednesday the 14th. Travelling so I probably won't be able to access mafiascum at all.

[MiniDeathStar]

... yeah, I knew I'd be back to some monstrosity of a thread but you exceeded my expectations.

Summary of my catch up: "Wow people still think I'm scum? But nobody is voting me? Kind of wish I saved myself the effort reading those pages."

Here guys, let me make this easy on you: VOTE: MiniDeathStar

No matter what I say, you're still going to scumread my lover so idc about any of this at this point. Have fun. I'm out.

[MiniDeathStar]

You should definitely vote our pair before the deadline. I'm basically useless at this point and Jester is on everyone's scum list, we are not the ones you want to see still dancing during LYLO.

[MiniDeathStar]

*curls in a ball*

I hate this game

I feel your pain.

[MiniDeathStar]

Maria is lock town.

[MiniDeathStar]

I just don't want to see "B-b-but Jester and Mini were soooo scummy, we didn't know ". We flip town/town, you own it up. Thanks.

[MiniDeathStar]

I am not defending, I'm self-voting. But like, don't pretend this didn't happen because the whole village thinks one of us is scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm not gamethrowing by self-voting. Do you know why? Because if really ~everybody in the game has a scum read of some sort on either of us, we'd have been lynched by now. The only reason we aren't is because the mafia are saving us as a backup lynch option when they run out of mislynches. I want to throw a spanner in the works of that.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm going to work now I'll think about comprimisng when I'm fully caught up when I get back but right now I still much prefer shadow maria. Very likely right now my second compromise is MDS because lol her posting. Do i need to post the yu hi oh card for you again?

Dude honestly just stop. I'm seriously not in the mood. If you're going to vote, do it. Then quit talking to me.

[MiniDeathStar]

You're going to have to explain why you continuously play the "go ahead and lynch me" card without literally using it in the explanation. Do not end your response with "go ahead and lynch me if you don't believe me", or anything like that.

Pretty sure I've already done that about 5 times. ISO me.

[MiniDeathStar]

I will hammer Shadow if he gets to L-1 but I'm not voting there otherwise.

[MiniDeathStar]

Didn't see smith so large. May do that too.

Can we lynch this after I die?

[MiniDeathStar]

Maria if you aren't trolling I swear I'll have irl trust issues, too.

[MiniDeathStar]

Hi. I've not been active the past few days because I'm on vacation with my SO, which is why Jester and I haven't talked much in our PT since Shadow quit. Sorry about that. Anyway, I think there was at least one scum on Shadow's wagon, wouldn't surprise me if there were two. It was a super difficult lynch despite the popular opinion that they were a scum pair, so it makes sense for the real scum to have sponsored it a little bit, right? I'd like to say it was Kagami but I'm not really sure. That would be too easy to be true, lol.

Regardless. I'm pretty sure Jester's town, even if he may not look like it here. He's sick and he's working himself to death, it's probably a miracle he even finds time to play this game. What bothers me a little is how so many people think I'm town, but don't trust my read on Jester? Like, why do you think you can read him better than me, who's played with him before and who's seen like double the number of posts you have? I like to think I'm not *that* easy to pocket.

Assuming I'm correct, that leaves 3 of {HS-Para, Dunn-Kagami, Smith-Pie, Arthur-Inspector} as scum pairs. I really hope you'll figure it out after we're gone ...3 times in a row. Because currently I have literally 0 clue which one of those would be town/town. Sooooo good luck?

That's all I have to say atm. I'll have more time tomorrow hopefully.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes. You are wrong.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh well. Like I said: good luck.

VOTE: MiniDeathStar

[MiniDeathStar]

Umm... we're at L-2. And there's 155 pages to catch up with. Nobody's ever going to bother replacing.

Just vote us out to narrow the suspect pool and go from there.

[MiniDeathStar]

Will I be skinned alive if I walk out now?

[MiniDeathStar]

Statistically speaking, scum was definitely on the wagon. This is awkward useless filler

No. Statistics means nothing. There's only 3 scum and they could have wanted to push another wagon to save Shadow for later. You kind of sound like you *know* for sure scum was on the wagon.

'Id love to say x is scum but i dont want to point fingers so dont hold me accountable, lol'

Hi, Miss Representation, I am Mini. Nice to meet you.

I've been FOS-ing Kagami for literally the whole game. I just said it would be too easy if she was the scum. I guess you haven't been paying much attention to my reads.

So everyone else has the possibility of being scum apart from you and jester, but its up to us to figure it out? Hell no.

Yes. We're leaving now, I know I'm town and I'm pretty sure Jester is town, so yeah. Everyone else has the possibility of being scum, and it will be up to you to figure it out. Like it or not, you made it happen.

If you're so sure I'm scum, vote me. Stop being so afraid.

If you're scum you should bail, if you're town (and think your partner is also town) you should fight. there's little more selfish than a "selfless" suicide in this kind of situation.

Who cares if I fight. Most of the village thinks Jester is the scum. It's pointless. It's better to leave now than be lynched at LYLO and lose the game.

[MiniDeathStar]

Morning. I haven't caught up yet and I don't really have time atm, so I'll just give some quick thoughts. Who here disagrees that Smith+Pie are both town? I propose we systemically lynch everybody else.

[MiniDeathStar]

I mean, I'm pretty sure Pie is town and I'll never be sure about Smith since he's a god tier player, but I trust Pie's assessment of him.

[MiniDeathStar]

MDS every post you make makes me want to dayvig you how is this possible.

Actually I have a very simple explanation: your reads are rubbish.

It's like you're having a private competition with yourself to one up every previous post you made with a more scummy one.

You mean like Shadow was scum? If I were you, I'd reassess my reads after *that* fiasco, but I guess I just don't have that ego of yours, do I? You're the one true authority on what is scummy. Literally Sherlock Holmes meets Philip Marlowe and has a brainchild that is you.

[MiniDeathStar]

Morning again. Really sorry I couldn't post yesterday. I'll respond with a catch up post in about an hour from now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler:

@MDS: Since you're relatively new, I'll just note this: when wagons start getting big, and majority starts getting close, that's when shit starts getting real, and you really see what people think. That's why you don't ever suicide pre-LYLO in a game like this.

I'm just really scared of being the fallback lynch during LYLO and losing the game, just because so many people think we're a scum couple.

Oh well. Like I said: good luck.

VOTE: MiniDeathStar

Why the dramatics?

Because I think me being alive is hindering the town right now. Not helping.

thing with this game is *if* I'm wrong and Jester is town, and if I'm even half right on who the remaining scum are, it's practically insta-loss.

my intuition tells me what's going on here is that Jester is a mislynch and scum are hoping to take advantage of it to solidify their position.

unvote:

I need some time to think; I might actually decide on a Parama lynch over a Jester lynch, depending on how I feel later.

It's only instaloss if we're the last pair to lynch instead of now. Assume we're both town, think about where the scum are, and vote there after we flip.

I mean seriously people, come on. The dancing votes on our wagon *clearly* suggest the mafia is saving us for later. Please stop playing by their whistle. We should not be the fallback lynch everyone is looking at right now.

@mds

I want you to look at what just happened. Lynch gets close, people start talking, someone gets cold feet. I don't know if pie is scum or town for it, but this is why you don't suicide. Stuff can happen. Nothing is inevitable. Remember this in future games, regardless of alignment.

Kind of what I'm afraid of?

i mean, shadow was scummy as heck. i'm not going to take responsibility for how scummy he played. why should i?

Honestly, I don't think Shadow was *that* bad. He was scummy pre-dance but later on I realised he was mostly just angry at people and himself and didn't really care how he came off. His tone felt genuine. Then he adopted my attitude towards the game which I *know* is a town reaction. I mean, you yourself admitted there were posts of his that were town af. You only have yourself to blame. Just like Arthur.

You would be more humbled.

Kind of hypocritical when you're doing the *exact* same thing to me. Where is *your* humility? Why am I scummy, Arthur? For the bigger part of this game I've been acting exactly like Shadow was acting. Shadow was town. Why am I scum?

Interestingly, you and inspector are the only ones here who think *I* am the scum and not Jester. Did you came up with that independently or did one persuade the other in your lover PT?

I'm not. I've said it before and I say it again: IF HS flips scum... Kagami is probably scum too

I don't think HS is flipping scum. If anyone is scum there, it's Parama.

i don't think that's very nice of you to say. arthur and i are sharing this nice and tasty humble pie and it bleeds through in our attitude. do you have the same disdain for me as well?

Well... I kind of stopped liking you after you started bombarding me and Jester with ableist slurs? Does that count? But like, at least you're showing some emotion this game. Arthur just comes off as a giant dick.

Jester was acting pretty scummy early on and has since completely disappeared from the game. MDS has done nothing but pop in and AtE all game. They really should have been lynched instead of Vedith/Gamma, if that happened we'd be in much better shape right now. Preferred wagon, probably.

Yes, Jester *was* acting pretty scummy and for a while I also thought he was scum. I changed my read later and explained why. As for me, if you think all I've been doing is AtE, that's probably because I only get noticed if I start shouting or crying. ISO me and see my reads. But yeah, I agree we should be the wagon. Btw Vedith suicided so we couldn't have been lynched *instead* of him.

Idk why you gotta rub shadow town flip in my face like I was p certain he was scum at the time and I admit I was wrong now.

I'm sorry, Arthur, love you, and I'm sure you're a great guy outside of this game. I was just utterly fed up with your arrogance that had literally nothing to stand on, and I had just about enough of that attitude. I won't lie, I genuinely said those things to hurt you and I think I might actually have, which I wish I could take back now. Well... except you're kind of sweet when you're remorseful like this.

I think most of your scumread on me is because I AtE a lot and say "lynch me", correct? I don't really have an excuse for appealing to emotion, it's just my personality and I do it all the time as either alignment. But the "lynch me" is totally 100% genuine and not a yu gi oh scum trick. I do want to be lynched, like right now.

Also please don't insinuate I'm not doing any scum hunting. I gave my reads about 98954 times and got ignored. Seems like I just don't get noticed if I appeal to logic instead of emotion.

Caught up to page 164 now. Will do more later, sorry.

[MiniDeathStar]

Morning (again). I'm catching up from page 164 now, will post as soon as I'm done. Thanks for your patience!

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler:

Need to think about this and reread. Weekend is crazy so far.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: jester-mds

Thought they were L-1 or 2

DAE get "scum saving Mini+Jester for the final mislynch" vibes? I certainly get those vibes.

Why is there suddenly the trendto see mhsmith-pie as town? That's the worst assumption you can make.

Because I think pie is really obviously bloody town, like, her frustration and nervousness and uncertainty are 100% genuine, and if they aren't, then she's an Oscar-worthy actress and deserves to win just for that. As for Smith, I've been feeling slightly better about him ever since his defence from First Dance, where he was actively scumhunting and giving reads on people instead of just attacking his attackers and trying to deflect attention or buddy up townies in case he goes down. I know he could have been faking it and I haven't metaed his wolf games yet but the fact pie seems to agree with him for town gives me some confidence on that read.

Well it's def anti-town. Too many people are going "mhsmith/pie are the town pair lets just lynch through the rest of the player list" making me think scum are trying to propel them easily to endgame while looking like they're making townie idea by identifying a town pair. It puts little effort into actually scumhunting but masks itself as ~contribution~.

Maybe I'm just trying a different approach? Fail scumhunting is what got us to this point. Gamma wasn't scum. Shadow wasn't scum. Jester isn't scum. Nahdia tried to tell you to start townhunting instead but you were all too deep in your tunnels and scumgendas to care or take advice from somebody better.

mhsmith-pie isn't the town-town pair so you can stop preaching that. Arthur isn't getting lynched over your pair so you can stop that, too

I read the last 1/3 of your ISO and I just don't see enough reasoning for Smith/Pie scum. Like, you seem to be making all those judgements based on 'scummy' recent posts and totally ignoring what's been going on with that pair earlier. Are you ever going to account for that?

Why can't it just be that MDS townreads the pair? Like if MDS was townreading the pair and nobody else was, would it still be scummy?

???

What are you even saying? That didn't happen THIS game. In an alternative universe where MDS has been scumhunting, has have valid reasons for her mhsmith-pie read, and has came up with an original idea of mhsmith/pie as the town pair, then I would not have called out MDS as scumny for the post. But even then the idea would still be anti-row.

The problem is that's not the reality of THIS game. I don't look at single posts, but a person's posts on a whole and the flow of the game.

Like I seriously have no idea wtf you're trying to get out of your line of questioning. Are you just asking random things? Or are you in favor of blindly lynching everyone but the mhsmith-pie pair? If it's the latter make it clear now, take a stance without being waffly.

I've been pushing Kagami for a big portion of First Dance and I had a looong back-and-forth with Smith where he changed my mind about him. What has *your* scumhunting contribution been? Pushing mislynches? Have you ever actually made a serious case or interrogated your suspect? Have you ever reconsidered a read of yours? All I remember from you is posting irrelevant Yu Gi Oh cards and repeating "LYNCH SHADOW" in a different phrasing every time. I don't think that counts as scumhunting, so can you please drop the hypocrisy now?

Also the original idea part is just outright bullshit. I scumread Kagami when no one else did. I townread Gamma and Shadow when it was a super unpopular opinion. I was the first to suggest Gamma and Shadow pairs were both town. I was the first to call Smith scum and then changed my mind after we spoke. Like, the fantasy version of me in your head just doesn't match reality, period.

Unless I'm *way* overthinking this and you're just scum. That would definitely explain a lot.

Why do you think that was scum!kagami spewing mds/jester town?

That's not what she did. She unvoted because she thought we were at L-1 or -2, then re-voted. She definitely didn't think we were town.

We agree that HS is setting up a weird dichotomy between SAD and Parama (at least HS is the biggest contributor and the strangest)

What's weird about the dichotomy? POE says 1-2 of them are scum. Either they are double bussing or one is attempting to mislynch the other. It's odd that you both agree on it when it's just not that out there to suggest Arthur and Parama are enemies. Kagami seems to agree with you *a lot* in general, which is an established pattern from First Dance. Why isn't this pinging you? Also "She commented that everybody wants to lynch us but nobody really wants to lynch us" is what *I* have been saying about us and accusing her of, so it's definitely not a novel angle for her to try to push around.

Did she talk about why she isn't talking in thread? It seems a bit odd for her to be substantive in PT but not main thread; is this an availability thing? Something else?

She's pocketing him by agreeing with him a lot.

Wrt pie, I kinda think that town!pie means:
Dunn!scum
At least one scum in jester/parama
And nit sure where a third would be if jester/parama is v/w

And wolf!pie probably means:
Kagami!scum
Maybe HS!scum given his hard defense of me day one
And not really sure whether pie!scum makes jester more or less likely scum
And I kinda struggle to see

I don't think Dunn is scum, but I do think pie is town. She's just townreading Kagami based on past experience with her. Also why can't Arthur be scum?

Also: at this stage in the game, it is really really bad for scum if a town/town pair is accurately identified, so if pie is town your push on me (and possibly scouts, I need to think on that more) reads like "oh shit we can't let these two get accurately town read"

So pie/Dunn as v/w makes a shit ton of sense wrt the game state, and is in no way seem kind of "false dichotomy" I pulled out of my ass.

You know, that also explains why Arthur jumped so hard on me for trying to identify a town/town pair.

MDS, has he been flaking out or was he discussing things overnight?

Flaking. In his last posts he was apologising for not contributing and he said he was sick and forced to go to work anyway. He hasn't even been talking to me in private (like, outside of the game) since Dec 17. I'm a bit worried about him tbh.

it is a fairly typical scum tactic to ignore arguments for why your push is wrong and continue to push it anyway - town on the other hand would be legitimately forming reads and would at least consider it either way, not just continue to push for the sake of having a push

You mean like Arthur did with me and like I didn't do with Smith? And like Arthur and Parama did with Shadow and each other? (Okay, Parama actually admitted Shadow was kind of town but pushed anyway.)

can people who have town reads on Dunn explain why?

Mostly because I think Kagami is scum and I don't think they are scum together. But Dunn also has posts that give him some credibility (like reconsidering his read on me when I explained why I scumread his lover, back when I was a popular scumread and it would have taken next to no effort to lynch me). Also tone.

Parama is definitely a lot worse than SAD.

I don't know about that. Or maybe I'm just biased because Parama is townreading our pair and I've been on the receiving end of Arthur for a while now.

also, I'm still not sure what your actual reason for scum reading mhsmith at this point is and your recent posts directed to him have been as nitpick-y as your posts directed to me, so I'd like if you could run me through it again.

I noticed that, too, actually, I just wrote it off as a short-sighted tunnel because I was townreading Dunn.

This is again you wanting to keep a more consistent thought progression.

Or maybe she's just townreading you and scumreading Dunn and her thought progression *is* consistent? Like how I think Arthur is scummy for his tunnel but Dunn isn't necessarily?

Kagami's kind of feeling off to me again and I don't want to vote what she's pushing right now - being jester pair (to her annoyance I'm sure) because I feel like if she's scum and pushing a t-t pair scum would win off of that (not literally but we wouldn't be able to 'do it')

Makes sense because she feels like she's running out of options. Actually scum!Kagami could well implicate one of Smith/Pie, since they seem to be the only place where you two are at serious odds with each other.

Regardless, I don't think Jester and I will dodge the lynch throughout this whole game. What if we don't manage to lynch scum right now? We will be voted sooner or later and that'll probably be game over anyway. *sigh*

Up to 168. Will do the rest after breakfast.

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler:

At that, why are you creating a false dichotomy?

Why is it a false dichotomy?

OK Mds: what are your thoughts? Who is scum? What about the people on your wagon?

Kagami most likely. Torn between Arthur, Parama or both, but leaning Arthur. Third scum, no idea. If Jester is town like I think he is, it's either Smith who's pulling a god tier wolf game, or Arthur and Parama are double bussing (which isn't a bad strategy tbh). I seriously doubt there's a scum/scum pair involved.

Actually rechecking the wagons, Kagami and Smith do vote as a pair, like *a lot*. Maybe I *did* reconsider my Smith read a little too soon. I seriously have to meta his wolf games.

The people consistently on my wagon have been Nahdia (town), pie (town?), Kagami (scum?) and to a degree Smith (no idea?). Either way, I'm positive there's at least one scum amongst them.

Do you think pieguy's read on me makes sense?

Yes, I just don't agree with it.

Actually reading further down, it does start to look a little like town-on-town. You're both pushing each other for reasons that make sense, and don't care how weird the pushes look like from an outsider perspective. You should each take a good, hard look at each other's lovers.

because it almost certainly isn't false, no way was there 0 scum pushing shadow, and i'm town. beyond that, they're both pushing each other pretty hard.

Pretty obviously this.

if Jester's pair is the second town/town pair, god forbid, then that's pretty much all that is necessary because they're getting lynched unless something amazing happens.

Would it help if Kagami and/or Arthur flip scum? Otherwise I agree, I definitely don't see us surviving through to endgame. If it happens, it'll be because scum let it happen.

i'm terrified jester/mds will flip t/t because a tilted jester who is just sick of this game becomes more realistic the more i think about it
in that situation mds acting lynchbaity isn't even unrealistic because maybe she just wants out of the game without ruining it by replacing. in fact that becomes more realistic the more i think of it.

Earlier I wanted out of the game because I was fed up and looked like my presence just interfered with everybody's reads. Now I want out because I'm scared of being lynched as the last town and I want to make it happen while we can still afford it.

I'm scared out of my fucking mind that this is what's going on, too, but then I think of just how shit his play this entire game has actually been if he *is* town here, and the fact that the him-town world likely has Parama and SAD hard cross bussing each other, and I calm down. ideally they should have been lynched first dance so we wouldn't have had to be sitting here entertaining the possibility someone can somehow play that badly as town.

It's not too late for that, you know. We still have a safe mislynch. Though, I disagree with you. There's literally nothing that could've been done that wouldn't have led to the same situation. Gamma, Shadow and Jester were pretty much everybody's scumreads. Whichever one of our pairs made it till now, it wouldn't have made any difference.

Also why is it so unrealistic that Parama and Arthur are double bussing? Or that Smith is scum with Kagami and pulling off a grand wolf game? It's certainly not above his skill level.

jester and mds shared a hydra in equilibrium mafia, vedith and i were both in that game, and mariar replaced into jester/MDS' scum slot. vedith read them to a tee as scum, and pushed them pretty hard. jester hid from the game, and at a point mds was the only one posting, relaying jester's play to us all until the slot eventually requested a replacement. sound familiar?

Jester didn't "hide" from that game, he legitimately didn't have time to post properly but stayed because of me. He was also inundated with our failpartner and with the super townsided setup, which kind of sapped his motivation anyway. This game he was pretty active in our private PT for the most part, until he got too far behind in terms of catching up and couldn't keep up with the game's pace anymore. He also mentioned at one point that his phone kept deleting his posts halfway through and it pissed the hell out of him.

@MDS,

is Jester's preferred alignment scum or town?

Town, but not really villager. He prefers power roles. Regardless, I think it's town anyway. Why are you asking?

kagami's interaction with the mds wagon today is horrible, keep that in mind

I agree that Jester/MDS being town means Kagami is scum (which would probably also make Dunn town but doesn't matter at that point).

I have no idea if I'd pick SAD/scout or my pair as the other town pair. I need to actually stop and think some more.

Yay, people are finally seeing my perspective here.

that's my thoughts on that post in particular.

I actually totally agree with this. The more I think about it, the less the cross bussing version makes sense.

no really I cannot think of anything else that explains this game if Jester/MDS and HS/Parama are *both* town pairs.

Kagami, Smith, Arthur.

Actually let me make this simple. If Kagami is scum, then Jester is most likely town and that could be game solved by PoE (whether Smith is scum or not). Otherwise either Arthur and Parama are cross bussing *and* Smith is scum, or Jester is scum with Smith and probably Parama. I doubt Jester is scum with Arthur who's bussing him by trying to lynch his girlfriend (me) but it's still possible I guess.

Regardless, I think Kagami or Mini lynch would be the most gamesolving right now. Smith lynch not so much.

Up to 171 now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh and if Dunn is scum then I guess Smith is town and it's game solved by PoE again?

[MiniDeathStar]

Spoiler: Up to 173

The one and only thing that gives me pause is Nahdia scumreading Jester/MDS.

That was based on First Dance + she thought Maria seriously claimed scum. Then it would make sense because Jester was defending their pair throughout the whole game and only expressed doubt when their wagon approached final destination.

^oh yeah, and pie/smith is still town with an asterisk on smith

But if Jester and I are both town, *and* Pie and Smith are also both town, that would make all 3 other pairs scum, including Parama, which means she WIFOMed mega hard with her town read on us and her double bussing post. That, or one of the other pairs is scum².

I feel like mds' behaviour has just been her intentionally acting scummy so that their pair can get lynched and removed from the game peacefully. I feel like her asking so many times whether she was ok to leave was just her gauging the waters to see if town would mind. I believe minimal conflict is her win condition in this game, even above her role PM.

Am I *that* obviously conflict-averse? Yes, I *was* legitimately trying to get removed from the game but I was afraid to suicide because I didn't want to piss people off. But I didn't act scummy on purpose, unless repeatedly saying "lynch me already" counts as scummy. I suppose I just come off as scummy when I'm disengaged from the game.

Umm, that's partly exactly why I'm scumreading her. She's trying to demonstrate she's town via acting in a way that town wouldn't think scum would act. But the fact she has went over it so many times while still seeming survivalistic at points indicates to me she's intentionally doing this. She seems like a nice person, and I understand that. However from my POV it still looks like she's heavily employing a certain playstyle to appeal to town. She's here enough that she could spend the time to instead scumhunt more. I think in her catch up she mentioned something about people not caring when she posts reads or something, but that is most def not true. In fact, the few glimpses of her I liked was early on in like the first day when she seemed to actively be trying to figure out the game and I thought it was looking genuine.

Of course I'm doing it intentionally. Like I explained *multiple times*, I'm scared because my pair has been scumread the whole game but somehow we're both still dancing. That only means one thing: the mafia allow us to be around, but try to maintain suspicion so we can be lynched at a more convenient time. That, or I'm wrong about Jester and he is scum. In either case, my best shot is to get myself lynched, which would either convince people to look elsewhere while they still can, or get rid of my scum boyfriend. My stating repeatedly that Jester is town wasn't survivalism, I was just trying to get people to focus on the real scum while I'm still around to discuss.

Also to be totally honest, my motivation to game-solve kind of plummeted after Jester stopped being active and after town turned on us and refused to listen about Kagami being scum and Shadow being town. I wish I had Smith's resilience and emotional void under pressure, but I just don't.

MDS' vote for the last part of D1 was a serious vote on herself, through the point when she had a large wagon on herself that was very viable and until the day ended.

I don't think that's feigned.

I don't find your reason compelling here.

What a surprise. You think Jester is scum, but if not then you guess I could be scum, too.

2655 remains the best reason to possibly townread that pair, to my mind.

I still find it pretty incredibly that a town-player whose only strong position has been "Shadow-Maria is town" produces 3706 and 3719. On the other hand, it's not really any less crazy that scum-jester produces them.

At the time he made 3706 and 3719 he was already second guessing his read on Shadow in our PT because he only spoke when spoken to and Maria was, quote, "wobbly as fuck".

I don't think she was in terrible danger, especially after the you-smith interaction, and retracting a self-vote is very easy.

The only reason you don't think that is because you controlled that wagon with your mafia pals. I guess you know that it was artificially inflated by scum votes and couldn't easily muster any more momentum. Is there anything else beyond me not suiciding that makes you think I was feigning my self-votes? You know, I would've suicided in a heartbeat if it was only up to me, I just didn't want to be "that gamethrower" and disappoint people.

Actually, this is probably a good time to hear out where kagami scumreads are actually coming from.

1) Trying to pocket Dunn.
2) Coasting on popular lynches all game.
3) Lackluster contribution.
4) Materalising from lurkspace to cast a blank vote. Several times.
5) To borrow HS's expression, the black hole of scumminess that was 3664 (coming right after 3659). Then she went ahead and advocated for no lynch in 3688 which would've been preferable "7 days ago". I'm astonished that nobody else noticed that gaping inconsistency.

I really wish I had lynched [Jester] D1.

Wouldn't have made much difference. Shadow wouldn've been here to act as the lynchbait instead of Jester.

Who do you think would be most likely scum with jester?

Parama and Smith.

what do you think scum-Parama's motivation for posting 4095 and related posts is if Jester-pair is town/town? at first I figured that they probably thought that either 1. the lynch would hit Jester and it would solidify their position, at which point they would either try to pivot onto the other town-town pair or try to eke them out in 4p, or 2. it would hit them and generate a bunch of WIFOM regarding their reads (and hopefully town would chain it into a Jester lynch anyway).

2 is pretty unlikely, since she could just save herself the gambit and push Jester without much controversy. 1 is more likely but now that our wagon lost its momentum it would be significantly harder to get it going while she's townreading us. It's still a risky move.

he's said a lot, but when I actually look at it from the top I'm a bit concerned about the way he focused almost entirely on MDS and S_S' pair to the near exclusion of any other push and I'm a bit concerned that I could be biasing towards him because he posts in a very logical style that resonates with me a lot.

Except he mixes in a lot of half-truths and misrepresentations in his posts, which I was been too fed up to call out whilst having no interest in delaying my lynch.

P. Edit:

Your reasons for townreading each other are entirely based on an interaction that had no reason to be public and could be scripted without too much effort.

Holy mother of scumpost Batman. Are you literally suggesting they are scum together and scripted that entire raw emotional interaction?

[MiniDeathStar]

*groan* I'm never going to catch up if I respond in detail to every post. I'll try a different approach now.

[MiniDeathStar]

Why did you think that dumping Jester in the null pile was meaningfully town-indicative? If the Jester-MDS pair was under public suspicion (and it was), then just openly town-reading him without substance would look suspicious in its own right from MDS (and presumably if she was scum at least one partner would be likely to have pointed it out). Am I missing something? Or was this actually just a null moment from her?

You *are* missing something. I thought he was scum and I told him that in private, but I knew if I put him as town or scum, it would just accelerate our wagon, and I didn't want out of the game so early. I literally signed up only to play with Jester as a pair. This is how our private conversation went like (paraphrasing):

Mini:

Done catching up, nothing meaningful. Everyone still thinks you're scum, and you know I'm not, so that's bad. Question: are *you* actually town?

Jester:

Why is that bad? What's wrong with being scumread? Why are you asking me this?

Mini:

Omg. You're totally scum again. Oh well, I still don't mind dancing with you because screw that town. ♥

Basically I thought his reaction was horrible, like he was trying to pull out a puzzled town look but just came across as tryharding scum. Proper reaction would've been (imo) "They think I'm scum? Must be a day that ends in -y. Don't worry, even if we end up lynched it's totally fine. And yeah, I'm town. I thought you were better at reading me lmao."

I'm putting this out there so you can all make your own judgements wrt what made me scumread him. But when more things happened, I realised he just legitimately didn't give a damn how he came across in tone and just wanted to solve the game.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'd actually forgotten about this segment, and that was a relatively good look. Does anyone here know jester particularly well? Does scum!jester ever try that sort of stunt?

I've only seen him as scum once, and all he did was butter people up and hardbus his partner right off the bat.

[MiniDeathStar]

He's probably at work, you know how he works 18 hours a day sometimes? So tragic!

Uhm... I'm back to not liking Human as a person.

[MiniDeathStar]

and just wanted to solve the game.

Is he waiting for an epiphany or doing a week long ritual to figure scum out or?

No, he was pissed just like me when nobody listened to him about Shadow. Also most of his reads were in the private PT, and I've already outed most of them.

[MiniDeathStar]

No you didn't. Considering you read 4 pages at a time it's pretty bold to be claiming you've read around ~200 posts just from me

Not to be offensive but your posts are all one liners and I read like ~50 of them. Whatever was on the 3rd page. Also the reason I'm so slow in catching up is because I respond in detail to many posts.

[MiniDeathStar]

Remember how early on I said people shouldn't leave the dance?
I'm over that. You should leave the dance

If HS actually takes this advice (she shouldn't) and HS-Parama flips town-town (let's hope not), I'm just gonna stick my vote on Dunn and never move it.

What's your stance on HS-Parama?

HS is very town. Parama is an enigma. If she's town, then Jester is probably also town, and I seriously seriously doubt Arthur is town. If she's scum, she's likely scum with Jester. And I'm not totally ruling out Arthur in that case because the more I think about this, the more bussing and double-bussing as a strategy makes sense to me.

[MiniDeathStar]

objectively false. I also had suspicion that I was talking to you about.

Which you only mentioned when I elaborated on mine.

[MiniDeathStar]

like he continues to scum read me/my pair for nebulous reasons, and when I point out why his reasoning doesn't hold water, he largely just makes excuses, ignores me, or says "I disagree" and leaves it at that without explaining any further.

what about this do you read as town?

Nothing. If I'm totally honest, all my townread on Dunn comes from earlier in the game. If the whole game was Second Dance, I'd be scumreading him.

[MiniDeathStar]

not particularly inclined to self-hammer since i'd rather get scum today instead of having to go 3 for 3 in lylo but it's gonna be hard for me to keep up with this very well on vacation, so

Someone will have to compromise. I don't think there's a huge interest in Arthur lynch right now. I can get behind it btw, *maybe* Human, but idk if anybody else would.

Smith can muster 3 votes, too (inspector, Arthur, Dunn), 4 with yours. I don't think I want to vote him right now.

I'm always an option, too, you just have to think really really hard what town-Jester would imply about the game. But I'm not sure I can gather enough votes either atm.

Kagami lynch, no way. Dunn has way too many fangirls for that.

I'm not sure what other option is there. I'll be honest, I'm not super eager to vote you just yet. I need to finish reading the game and carefully consider the possible scum pairings.

[MiniDeathStar]

i saw your conversation on like 178ish or so and while i guess kagami comes off looking a bit better after that i did not get how it was relevant to this point

but i'm pretty tired so i might've just missed it

your pair and Jester pair being the town/town pairs doesn't work because it would make Dunn scum, which implies my pair is town/town and there can't be 3 town/town pairs.

I'm pretty sure me and Kagami are thinking the same way in that clearing her pair out today might be more optimal than clearing your pair, but I'm not 100% if she's in agreement or not so I'm actually waiting for her to tell me what she wants to do before proceeding.

You can't totally 100% exclude the possibility of bussing, especially at this stage where towncredit is *so* valuable.

[MiniDeathStar]

We can keep that order, but I'd want to secure a promise from MDS before I left, which hopefully my flip would be humbling enough to enforce.

Yes. I won't hesitate to vote against Jester in that case.

[MiniDeathStar]

UNVOTE: MiniDeathStar

Let's be honest here. If Parama is town, what would Arthur have done this whole game? Push on Shadow (town), push on me (town), push on Parama (town). Horrible, poorly reasoned, unwavering tunnels. I refuse to believe he just sucks this much as town. So that's one scum in the bag.

Next I'd seriously look at Dunn/Kagami. It's like they never even considered Arthur as a suspect, check a few pages back or ISO me because I specifically drew attention to it in my catch up. So hopefully scum #2 is there.

As for #3 I can only guess. I think it would really depend on who the scum #2 actually is. Kagami was reluctant to lynch Smith but eagerly jumped on Jester. Dunn, vice-versa. We'll have to reread carefully and decide whether they were bussing or pushing a mislynch.

[MiniDeathStar]

Now, if Parama is scum, things get more interesting. She's been defending me and Jester practically the whole game, against the popular opinion. I'd lynch us first.

If Jester is scum #2, I've absolutely no clue who his partner could be, because I stopped considering him as scum weeks ago. But I trust pie would figure it out. Just PLEASE don't rule bussing out as a possibility.

If Jester is town, that would probably make Kagami scum, and the third scum would be down to Arthur/Smith. Again, I'm trusting pie to figure it out because she's been looking pretty amazing since towards the end of 1st dance.

Sorry pie. Don't worry too much about screwing it all up, it's just a game and tbh scum have played amazing so far so I don't have high expectations for town to begin with.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm just gonna assume you haven't seen the last large dance. /covers face in embarrassment and runs away

I haven't, and I don't think I feel like sifting through 200 pages, so don't worry. Your secret is safe.

[inb4 other dancers from that game start exchanging funny looks with me and pie]

[MiniDeathStar]

If, however, HS/Parama flips town:

My biggest suspect would be mhsmith/pieguy. Of the two, mhsmith is more likely. Though it can certainly be pieguy

Why them and not Arthur?

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, the post you quoted from Smith are just his thoughts that you *likely* share alignment with our pair. As in, if you're town, and you were voting us because you thought I was scum, you genuinely changed your mind after my Kagami read. But if you're scum with me or Jester, you just found an excuse to quit the distancing. I think the logic checks out.

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't deny Pie has a solid point there.

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't deny Pie has a solid point there.

Which one? Looks pretty misreppy to me

4639, especially the second part. It kind of stood out that you barely considered Kagami as scum, even though you have your doubts about her. In contrast I, as much as I trust Jester, couldn't help myself but weigh him as an option in case Kagami is town *or* Parama is scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, I was talking about your lynch orders. You only ever offer your pair on the menu if HS is scum, or if HS/Parama are town, with Smith and Jester being scum and lynched first, both of which I find incredibly unlikely.

[MiniDeathStar]

What about the scenario where I'm dead on and scum are all in HS group, SAD group, mhsmith group? Why isn't this what pie needs to be doing? @MDS

There is no such scenario? We're lynching HS group now and going from there.

[MiniDeathStar]

You only ever offer your pair on the menu if HS is scum, or if HS/Parama are town

Right. The chance of kagami being scum goes down if Parama is scum. This is based off gut and observation from the pt. Obviously not impossible

There's no reason to "offer myself up" if I'm right and think I've found another scum? I've thought about this you know


I guess I don't see why I should offer myself up in that scenario

Yes, the chance of Kagami being scum does go down if Parama is scum. However, if HS and Parama are both town, it makes a lot of sense for Kagami to be scum with Smith and Arthur.

[MiniDeathStar]

Jester noooooooooo

[MiniDeathStar]

Although I suppose town!Parama *could* also mean Smith/Arthur/Jester, with Smith and Arthur bussing Jester all game long because they felt he was a dead weight, and Kagami just buying into the scheme.

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

In either case, I think Arthur should definitely come before Smith. He's a lot scummier.

[MiniDeathStar]

It's also HS/Para's deathwish.

[MiniDeathStar]

How likely do you think is Kagami/Arthur/Jester, with Arthur and Kagami doing the bussing?

What is Arthur bussing in that scenario?

I hadn't considered that option. How likely do you think it is and why should I consider it?

He could be bussing Jester via his girlfriend (i.e. me). Pretty unlikely though, since he said he's nullreading Jester and scumreading me, not vice-versa. If Parama is town and Arthur is scum, I don't think I'll concede to a Jester lynch unless *you* Dunn flip scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

Well Arthur has been persistently scumreading me all game (for flimsy reasons) and I think the only reason he hasn't cast a vote on me yet is because he was too busy tunneling Shadow and then Parama. Which makes sense if he was just distancing from Jester.

In that case if Arthur and Kagami both go down and flip scum, scum!Jester looks insanely good. But I don't think that could've been the plan all along because Jester was in serious danger of getting lynched until very very recently.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pieguy do you think that if parama flips scum I should die too?
That seems to be what's being implied

I think she's saying you should die if Parama flips town.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

What do you think would have happened if Dunn managed to lynch Smith 1st dance and both of you flipped town? Do you think he would've got a lot of heat for it?

And what if he managed to lynch you now or 1st dance and Smith flipped scum? Do you think it's at all possible that Dunn could be bussing Smith in hopes to lock himself as town and end the game? Or do you think he'd be lynched anyway because of Kagami?

[MiniDeathStar]

Yup, I agree with pie there. I'm comfortable keeping her and her boyfriend as the last town if Dunn dies as scum, and lynch everybody else.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yup, I agree with pie there. I'm comfortable keeping her and her boyfriend as the last town if Dunn dies as scum, and lynching everybody else.

Grammar.

[MiniDeathStar]

Lover and partner have connotations. Thus, boyfriend.

Alright. In a situation where I'm scum and one of jester pair/scout pair is a t-t pair, who are my partners?

Scum-you implicates Arthur *or* Jester and Parama who you've been bussing during Dance 2.

But I think that's a lot less likely than scum!Dunn, town!Parama and town!Smith, with scum!Jester and scum!Arthur.

[MiniDeathStar]

Pie, how likely do you think is that Dunn and Kagami are both town with Parama? Something like Jester, Smith, Arthur?

[MiniDeathStar]

Also: do you think it's at all possible that inspector and Arthur are scum together?

[MiniDeathStar]

Jester used to scumread Smith, Inspector, Kagami and HS, then changed his mind on Kagami and HS, eventually changed his mind on Smith, too. At one point he asked me what I thought about Arthur, I said town, and he didn't respond.

I think he eventually came down to hard-townreading Smith and that's the last read he gave. It was shortly before Shadow left.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think the least likely scenario is that Arthur and Parama are town together. I see no reason for scum not to merrily wagon one of them, then the other. It would be a literal goldmine. This is why I want to lynch Parama, then potentially Arthur.

[MiniDeathStar]

Yes, Human, I'm totally on board with that.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh yes, I was agreeing with the Arthur lynch. I'm not deadset on any pair as town/town atm, not even mine.

[MiniDeathStar]

Kagami, check out Arthur's interactions with me in particular. I think he calls me MDS but he quotes things from me, too, so MiniDeathStar should work as well.

[MiniDeathStar]

In what reality exactly are you town with Parama and so far scum haven't taken advantage of your fight to push a lynch on one of you?

[MiniDeathStar]

MDS picking up my reality nomenclature on top of my black hole phrase.
Stealin' yo gurl jester~

That was your invention? Didn't realise. I kept using dimension and universe before, figured I'd add some variety. The black hole phrase on the other hand is just super neat.

You know, I do swing both ways...

In a reality where they're happy sitting back and waiting for one of us to get lynched...

That would never have happened. Most of the focus was on our wagon and Shadow's, with both you and Parama voting Shadow. At the very least it needed a catalyst scum vote from a less conspicuous pair. In a universe with scum!Dunn, scum!Smith and scum!Jester, there's literally nothing that stopped universally townread Dunn from pushing *that* wagon instead of wasting time distancing from Smith. Like, all he needed to do is find a way to townread Shadow (not that difficult), and find a way to scumread you (also not super difficult). Even if he failed and Shadow was lynched, he would look *very* good, and you would look *very* bad. Especially late in the day when Parama already had some doubts wrt Shadow, and HS trusted Parama with her firstborn, it would have been a bloody gamewinning manoeuvre.

On the other hand, there's no way that Shadow *wasn't* pushed by at least one scum. There were HS, Parama, and you as the main proponents. Smith was coasting a little bit before switching his attention to pie. Scummy for sure, but hardly impactful. In a world where HS, Parama and you were all town voting Shadow, that wagon would've really taken off with a couple scum votes.

Instead, in your world the scum were 1) not voting (Jester), 2) self-voting (me), 3) self-voting (Smith), 4) bussing (Dunn).

I find that incredibly unlikely.

The much likelier explanation is that Shadow's wagon was already saturated with scum votes and didn't have much natural momentum, which perfectly explains why both you and Parama were yelling on top of your lungs to lynch Shadow, and why my wagon was constantly shifting as the other scum attemped a different strategy instead of exposing themselves by also voting Shadow.

So no. I just don't believe you can both be town. It doesn't check out.

[MiniDeathStar]

If people disagree with this, then they need to raise objections in the form of plausible configurations of scum that have Kagami-Dunn as T-T and sad-scout containing a scummo, or a configuration of scum with dunn as scum and piesmith containing a scummo.

Arthur, Parama, Smith. Reasonably likely given Arthur/Parama crossbussing strategy while neither of them really gave Smith any attention.

Arthur, Jester, Smith. Also reasonably likely. Arthur is trying to get Parama lynched while distancing from Jester by proxy, meanwhile Smith is just looking to pile up as much towncredit as

humanely

robotically possible.

Arthur, Inspector, [anybody else]. A very greedy strategy where the scum pair ruthlessly bus (Parama or Smith) and try their damnedest to reach endgame. Much less likely but totally possible.

Of course there's also Parama, Jester, Smith, which probably is the most likely scenario, so your plan does have some merit. I just don't trust Arthur at all atm.

[MiniDeathStar]

Also I'm 90% certain that Jester is town.

[MiniDeathStar]

Well, yes, because this time I based them on you being town with Kagami. I'm still not totally convinced that is the case.

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, I'm just paranoid. I trust pie and she made a compelling argument for you being scum. I'm not saying that's the case, but I have some doubts at the back of my mind.

Yes, if you're town, I'm content with following through that.

[MiniDeathStar]

I think I'm capable of that, yes.

But LYLO makes me pretty nervous regardless. D:

[MiniDeathStar]

Can't we at least wait until Jester is replaced? I want to be totally sure.

[MiniDeathStar]

I expect Parama, inspector, Smith and Arthur to disagree.

[MiniDeathStar]

Dunn, now that I think about it, I really want Parama or Arthur flip first before you pull off that suicide stunt. I trust Jester's alignment but I do want that extra bit of reassurance that comes with a scum flip.

[MiniDeathStar]

VOTE: Arthur/inspector.

These have some potential of being scum together, HS and Parama don't. I think they should go first.

[MiniDeathStar]

like that's almost too blatant of a contradiction to come from scum but

You're taking it out of context. It was a hypothetical where Dunn and Kagami are both town and you're scum *instead* of Arthur. Like, as much as I think Jester is town, you flipping scum and Kagami flipping town means either a Parama/Arthur crossbus, inspector/Arthur scum/scum, or Smith/Jester scumteam. Which of the 3 do you think is more likely?

for the record: mds/jester is the goto endgame pair if kagami & arthur are both scum and pie/smith is the goto endgame pair if dunn is scum. can we all agree on this?

i honestly don't think there's any possible scumteam where one of these isn't true

I agree with this btw.

[MiniDeathStar]

Points in favour of Jester:

- His read progression on Gamma felt really genuine.
- He was townreading Shadow from the get-go and didn't want to vote him even when he was in serious danger. He only changed his mind when Shadow started making cameo appearances as soon as his wagon picked up again. I think that's also a very town reaction to it.
- He had a similar Smith read progression to me, independently of me. He thought he was scum at first, then gradually changed his mind.
- He's not playing his usual scum game where he'd butter up to the people who know him well and ruthlessly bus his partners. He kept testing me over and over and thought I was scum at some point.

Points against Jester:

- He was pretty scummy at the beginning.
- Parama was defending our pair from really early on and continued doing so, which was a relatively unpopular opinion. Could be a WIFOM/pocketing strategy, but if Parama flips scum, that's honestly pretty damning.
- Nahdia scumread him all game.
- Pie scumread him all game (and I think she's town).
- I'm prone to defending him and could be somewhat biased.


Obviously column A outweighs column B, but I can't be totally 100% certain.

[MiniDeathStar]

Oh, and obviously can't ignore that Vedith townread him, too, and he's pretty good at reading him tonally.

[MiniDeathStar]

It was a rhetorical question. I just wanted to show you my thought pattern.

[MiniDeathStar]

When did 106 happen in your PT, mds?

Do you mean 104? 106 was mine. It was Dec 7, 8:40 am (GMT).

Okay so by this logic you literally should be voting Parama but instead are voting me good to know you want to mislynch me too.

That logic only applies if Dunn and Kagami both flip town.

Lynch Parama, if town flip lynch mhsmith pair so they don't endgame us if they're scum. If both flip scum then lynch Dunn and MDS pair in any order.

If Parama flips town, we are powerlynching your pair. I thought everyone made this crystal clear.

Does anyone else think it was obvscum by kagami?

Not obvscum but I thought it was pretty scummy. Like she didn't want us lynched but didn't want our wagon to die either, which pretty much confirmed my paranoia from earlier that scum are keeping us alive and under continuous suspicion as a sort of planned endgame mislynch.

[MiniDeathStar]

Fuck me it's MDS/Dunn/mhsmith isn't it.

I thought I made it perfectly clear there's no way you're town with Parama. I also don't see Dunn being scum with Smith so your config makes no sense. FYPOV it should be either Parama/Jester/Smith or Parama/Jester/Dunn.

The_Jester has agreed to come back.

Omg yesssss <3

Most likely non-dunn group (and I'm inclined to think dunn town if for no reason other than his insistence that he gets to decide something if I suicide) remains Smith-Jester-Parama to my mind.

This is why I want to lynch Arthur and see if he's town. Because if he is, then I'll agree with this config and probably suggest to keep Dunn as the endgame town.

But if Arthur is scum, I think Jester should be the endgame town. Also Arthur and Inspector have the potential of being scum together, and I don't townread Inspector nearly as much as I townread Human.

Nobody has suggested any really plausible counter-configuration for the kagami-plan, including parama who should really be the most capable and invested, so I'm kind of inclined to just go with it.

Why are you against lynching Arthur? Do you really townread that pair that much that you'd suicide over it? For a while I thought you were Dunn's scum girlfriend, but I think I've changed my mind on that and I don't think Dunn is scum, so I'd be willing to let you and him carry us to endgame, especially if Arthur and Inspector are both town.

But atm I just don't see any scenario where I'd let Arthur endgame us. Perhaps only if we lynched Parama first and she flipped scum.

Then he reread smith and decided he was scummo #3 is 2 hours. I guess that's not impossible, and fits with having come to a t-t conclusion on HS-parama about 1 hour in. Kind of surprising he wouldn't mention his smith conclusion.

Well he said he liked him more (as town). That happened around the time he reaction tested me with saying I townslipped and Smith questioned him about it, and then Smith and Jester were commenting on Gamma and Shadow and appeared to agree with each other.

[MiniDeathStar]

The alternative is to lynch Smith and if he's scum, we keep Dunn alive because they have low chance of being scum together. The problem with that is that I like having pie around

and also I just had a dream where Smith and I were arrested for speeding by mistake and I was super pissed at him but he handled it awesomely. And yes he was wearing that beak mask in it. Don't ask.

[MiniDeathStar]

^ From your points of view Smith scum should probably = me town, but what about kagami? We're kind of a set here

You know, for most of the game I thought Kagami was the scum, but having actually talked to her for a bit and listened to her exchange with pie, I've reconsidered my read. She's acting literally in the opposite way than I'd expect scum!her to act. I know it could be a trick, but if it is, I've totally fallen for it.

So refresh me: do you actually think smith is scum, or is it just dunn vs smith

He's a total enigma to me atm, but the thing I'm most sure about is that you two are not scum together, so one being scum means the other is town. I don't know if you could be town together, but if you are, that means a team of Parama, Arthur, Jester/Kagami. Which again means we have to lynch Arthur then Parama (or vice-versa) and take it from there.

Tl;dr if we lynch Smith now and he flips town instead of scum we're kind of stuck.

But like, the only way Arthur and Parama are town together has either {pie + Smith doublescum with Kagami/Jester}, or {pie/Smith + Kagami + Jester} with Jester as the scapegoat. That or some combination involving you scum with smith, or girls-only scumteam, which is super unlikely.

However Arthur and Parama can also be scum together.

Which is why we should be lynching amongst them atm and go on from there.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

Do *you* see a scenario where Arthur and Parama are both town? What do you think about the game if HS/Parama are town? And what about Arthur/Inspector?

[MiniDeathStar]

also, lynching them first doesn't work at all because of the distinct possibility that we're in the Jester/Parama universe with Dunn as the +1, with us having no way whatsoever of telling wither Dunn or mhsmith is the +1.

anyway, to answer the questions in your last posts... SAD and Parama both being town doesn't work since Dunn and mhsmith cannot both be scum. SAD being town means we're in the universe in the last paragraph (which is why lynching him right now is bad), Parama being town probably means we're in the SAD/Jester/Dunn universe if I go off of reads but could mean just about anything.

Okay. That seems to imply that Jester is scum no matter what while the others are some kind of variable. Therefore I should be the first to go.

Follow up question: what if Jester is actually town? Is there a way of telling who is scum between Dunn and Smith in that case?

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

Okay, let me give you my perspective once again. You agreed that Parama and Arthur can't be town together. That means we have a near guaranteed flip of 1-2 scumbags if we sack both of them. From there we have several options depending on their flips:

Arthur

,

Parama

: This almost certainly means

Jester is town

, unless Arthur's plan has been to bus him for towncredit before mislynching Parama. Which is silly because he's pushing Parama over me, and HS was trusting him for the majority of the game.

Arthur

,

Parama

: This probably makes

Jester scum

, but you have a point that it'll be difficult to figure out whether Dunn or Smith is his partner. I'd say Dunn because he's been planning around our pair while Smith has been keeping us in the scumpile, but it could also have been distancing. Also I doubt Dunn's plan included him flipping scum. So like, idk. Good luck in that case!!

Arthur

,

Parama

: Crossbussing universe, which is what Dunn is predicting. In this case we'd be down to 1 scum *and* have 1 mislynch, so that's great odds. We can figure out the details of it later.

With a

Dunn suicide

, him flipping town relies on us being correct about Jester without knowing which of {Arthur, Parama} is town, if any. I mean, I can obviously keep interrogating Jester and HS can interrogate Parama (and you Smith), but I still think that approach is a lot riskier. Do you see where I'm coming from now?

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm not so sure if this is entirely a joke or not, but it looks like MDS has no qualms leaving on Jester. If we can get MDS locked in as town, we can pretty well confirm Jester as town, because MDS can read Jester like a book and she clearly hasn't replaced out at this point.

Paranoia is a hell of a drug though.

[MiniDeathStar]

Would you agree that if Jester is town then Dunn is also town? I don't see scum!Dunn planning around a town/town pair for endgame. It would be super next level even for him.

If you all agree on that, I'm happy to suicide now. It would give us a town/town pair in Dunn/Kagami, or worst case scenario it would remove scum. That's assuming Kagami is town, which I now think she is.

[MiniDeathStar]

Human, we actually talked about Jester's 146 in our PT. Paraphrasing with context:

Jester:

By the way now I think you're town.

Jester:

I will tell you post-game what felt off at first.

Mini:

I hope it was something about my game and not personal. I'm sorry if I was obnoxious somehow.

Jester:

Nothing personal. You're adorable.

Mini:

Thank you! Btw the reason *I* thought you were scum was because you came off kind of reachy on Cerberus and [blah blah talking about my reaction test]. I just shut up about it because I wanted to be totally 100% sure. I would've felt pretty shitty if I mislynched *you*.

Jester:

I guess you have a point but Cerberus's post just stood out to me. Also I knew it was too early to call him lock scum but I wanted to see people's reactions. And I think it paid off because they're still talking about Shadow's agreement with me. About your reaction test it's funny but you asking me made me feel suspicious and I didn't like your response either so you could say it went both ways haha.

That was on Dec 5, around 11 am GMT.

[MiniDeathStar]

Jester has said literally nothing since the replacement debacle. It makes it incredibly difficult to reassess him after Parama's scum flip.

I actually kind of agree with pie on lynching Smith, then if scum I suicide, if we're town/town it'll be between Dunn/Kagami and Arthur/Inspector and I trust Dunn pair over Arthur pair because I just don't see scum!Dunn playing around my pair as town/town. Also Arthur is the only one who has been super dead certain on surviving till endgame and never ever dying, and whose reads have basically never changed.

I will have to reread Parama/Arthur interactions in specific though, and see if the double bus theory really makes as much sense as Dunn wants it to.

Also Merry Christmas

[MiniDeathStar]

FYPOV on scum!Smith it should be 1 of {Jester, Arthur, Kagami}. Who would you get? Parama has been defending me all game and Smith never made anything more than a weak push on my pair. Jester townread both of them. Idk if I still want to put as much faith in my Jester read if both of those turn out to be scum.

[MiniDeathStar]

MDS, do you agree with me that mhsmith-town implies one or more scum in the Dunn/Kagami pair?

Kind of. I don't see Jester being scum with Arthur/Inspector since they've both been taking jabs at me all game and never at him. The only thing that makes me uneasy is that Arthur said *very tentatively* that he'd hammer my wagon over Shadow's if we got to L-1 first but it was more like "I just want *any flip* before intermission" kind of deal. It just struck me as unusual since he had hard-scumread me all game? I just didn't think much of it at the time because I was townreading him on tone.

[MiniDeathStar]

@pie:

If Smith is scum, would you trust Dunn to be town? Should I leave the dancefloor in that case? Or are you worried about Kagami?

[MiniDeathStar]

That's what I was thinking, too.

[MiniDeathStar]

Fiiiine.

Bullies.

[MiniDeathStar]

Sooo Jester's finally posting in our PT again (yay!). He drew my attention to his/Parama's earliest interactions. Things of note:

- Parama claimed scum. I wish I'd noticed that earlier because it's become something mostly done by the real scum.
- Parama also insisted it was 1 lady 2 gentlemen, which Jester noticed and it wouldn't surprise me if it's true. Other scum are probably dudes.
- There's *a lot* of misrepresentations of Jester's arguments which doesn't really look like bussing.
- Which makes me think Parama's soft (and hard) defending of me was only because I also suspected Shadow. She was pocketing me.

Thoughts?

[MiniDeathStar]

Speaking of which...2 mafia gentlemen, one lady? Vice versa? Anyone have any thoughts on what's more likely?

$10 says RNG determined this

i thought we already discussed this it's 2 guys 1 girl
that's why i had to pay human my hard-earned pokedollars

[MiniDeathStar]

Umm guys are there bad guys in this setup???

eeewww

Btw it should be noted this flavor is very not sjw friendly.

what the hell?

Jester is scum.

ahh finally someone i can like

jester literally just argued in favor of pairing a scum with the mod-confirmed town

personally i think jester has already posted plenty to warrant a scumread in this game alone, even ignoring any meta stuff (i have no clue who you are)

Jester has a point about Cerb.

he really, truly doesn't.
did you read his post
it's literally an argument for pairing scum up with the IC

Found the first scum.

First, town have no bussiness pairing with IC cause that doesn't amount to them solving the game in any way.

That overblown explanation in #98 looks like nervous scum. Second, that 'innocent' setup spec question looks like taken straight outta scumbook.

"town have no business pairing with IC" ---> "only scum should pair with the IC"

Found the first scum.

First, town have no bussiness pairing with IC cause that doesn't amount to them solving the game in any way.

That overblown explanation in #98 looks like nervous scum. Second, that 'innocent' setup spec question looks like taken straight outta scumbook.

"town have no business pairing with IC" ---> "only scum should pair with the IC"

I dunno whether I'm dumb or you are. That's what I said, what's your problem with it? Town have literally no reason to waste the pt mechanic on having chitchat with other town instead of looking for scum. I don't get what you're saying.

Also hands off my Jester please. I literally signed up to play with him, we're not lynching him this quickly. Idc if he's scum or not.

screw right off, honestly

I dunno whether I'm dumb or you are. That's what I said, what's your problem with it? Town have literally no reason to waste the pt mechanic on having chitchat with other town instead of looking for scum. I don't get what you're saying.

i see now that it is futile to even waste my time responding to you because you
1. have clearly missed the entire point
2. are completely backwards in your logic here
3. are scum anyways so who gives a damn

screw right off, honestly

Sorry but no. Your reads suck.

you say, after pairing up with scum

This feels like a rerun of this game. ISO Jester there and tell me if you still think he's scum.

no thanks. i don't care about other games when he's scum in this one

(screw meta)

[MiniDeathStar]

Basically she keeps presenting his argument in some vague bad light without even caring to elaborate. I mean, I thought he was scum for the jab on Cerbobs, too, but at least I saw he had a point (as in, proper town strategy would be to not propose to the IC at all and force scum to pair up them).

[MiniDeathStar]

Where did she chainsaw Kagami? Was it recently or around that time?

[MiniDeathStar]

If anyone is curious, he's scumreading inspector and Smith, in that order.

Sorry for speaking on your behalf, Jester. People were getting antsy.

[MiniDeathStar]

im not tying you to smith

im telling people youre scum and that he is scum

Uhm, what?

[MiniDeathStar]

if this happens, I 100% promise I won't hold it against you at all.

You know, sometimes I get this kind of thoughts, too, but then everybody starts yelling at me that I'm a town/town pair and would be gamethrowing if I quit no matter what.

I'm super nervous that I'm missing something and it's going to be LYLO eventually and Dunn + Jester have me pocketed so deep that I'm basically in Narnia and I've literally no idea who's scum if Smith is town.

Sorry pie.

[MiniDeathStar]

Who's the scum, Kagami?

[MiniDeathStar]

If I were going by independent scumreads, I'd have lynched your pair already?

[MiniDeathStar]

I meant to say you've been ridiculously scummy and I could have pushed your pair like Dunn and Jester did and like HS wanted to, but I'm not as sold on the double bussing theory as Dunn is.

[MiniDeathStar]

And your sarcastic comment didn't even answer my question: What exactly did you have a problem with in inspector's post?

First of all it was self-contradictory. "I'm not saying you're both scum, I'm just saying you're scum and he's scum".

Second of all it was useless. "Smith and Dunn are not likely to be town or scum together" was already discussed to death by me and pie. What did inspector bring to the table? Nothing.

[MiniDeathStar]

VOTE: Smith

Who's scum if Smith is town?

[MiniDeathStar]

L-2 btw

[MiniDeathStar]

Holy shit, pie was right about you Dunn. You *are* goading inspector to suicide.

UNVOTE: Smith.

That interaction just now was incredibly scummy.

[MiniDeathStar]

No, I'm perfectly aware of your crossbussing theory. I just thought the way you went about it was incredibly manipulative.

[MiniDeathStar]

I can agree to that. The part where you die, at least. Also the lynching pie/smith part after if you flip town part.
not sure what you mean by mds casually slide to endgame when she's clearly a member of the town.... parama pair would be lynched somewhere in there

if SAD/scout flips town/town, lynch this, immediately.

this is pure opportunism, in a position where we specifically need to WAIT until we have a plan in place before proceeding. I think he thinks scout will suicide and is hoping to capitalize on it, and then lynch my pair for the win.

[MiniDeathStar]

Rip Smith. Have a nice eternity in Mechanus or whatever paradise it is that good robots go. And sorry for doubting you!!

Dunn? You scummo? It's you and Jester isn't it? Like both of you have been super super super against me suiciding, at all points of the game. Jester, how many times did I warn you about being the pair alive in LYLO and mislynched by the scum? This isn't what's happening now, is it?

Hey inspector? Got anything to say? You were like 2000% certain they were going to flip scum. Did you ever consider the possibility they could be town? Please link me to the post(s) if you did.

[MiniDeathStar]

Kagami's probably going to suicide now. If Dunn flips scum, I'm also suiciding.

[MiniDeathStar]

If Dunn flips town well. Good game scumlords.

[MiniDeathStar]

Tomorrow's list:
1) force jester to justify that FUGLY hop on our wagon
2) figure out a legit town read from Dunn/scout/jester
3) DO NOT SUICIDE (since scum/scum is mechanically possible)

Obviously ignore #3 if pie flips scum. I'll cheer you on from dead thread, it'd be nice to grab a rare win I didn't really deserve (usually it's the reverse in my town games )

On a second thought...

[MiniDeathStar]

Inspector, you said you'd been looking for a town/town pair. I don't remember seeing any meaningful townhunting from you though. Can you point out where? PT counts too.

Have you reached any conclusion so far? Who are your townreads? You ought to have some.

[MiniDeathStar]

Arthur, is there any reason to doubt inspector at all, beyond sheer paranoia?

[MiniDeathStar]

Like, I really really want to believe that inspector/Arthur is indeed town/town and game is basically solved, but the inspector part just doesn't make it very easy on me.

[MiniDeathStar]

I'm glad you're continuing your pair's fine tradition of pity-party-posting.

A-level snark right there.

Uhh anyway. Sorry for being absent lately. I'm just going to share my current thoughts on the game state:

- I don't think any pair is scum/scum.

- Out of Arthur/inspector, I think inspector is the scum, if any. I'm starting to feel better about Arthur lately.

- Not sure if Dunn/inspector are scum together and bussing, or trying to a scummo trying to lynch a townie. There are pros and cons to either strategy.
• Bussing guarantees a scumflip and makes the other pair look *very* good, possibly game-winningly good. On the other hand town could call the bluff, or at best it may delay what could be a certain win.
• Mislynching wins the game for the scum, but on the other hand the scum could also end up the one being lynched, which makes the town pair look great.

I think we should try to figure out which one of them is town, if any, and PoE around that. If they are bussing, then I'm in a town pair. If they definitely aren't bussing, then Jester is scum.

Orrr I'm totally wrong and inspector/Arthur *are* scum together after all.

*sigh* this game is too difficult.

[MiniDeathStar]

Why would bussing be better than just keeping a slight doubt on you the whole game, so we can justify you as a lynch right now?

You did keep a slight doubt on me the whole game, while Dunn reneged on it. It's possible you wanted an opposite opinions on my pair in case we get lynched, and that you never really expected us to survive to LYLO because of how suicidal I was and how easy it is to make me doubt myself.

Either way crossbussing is a good strategy because it gives solid towncredit to the survivor, while cooperating on a lynch makes you look incredibly bad if the lynch backfires onto one of you. You already know it's a safe strategy after everyone thought there's no way Dunn and Smith were scum together, and after Dunn already tested the waters with his Parama/Arthur crossbussing theory and didn't get much support.

Simply put, I think crossbussing benefits scum *a lot* right now, regardless of who they are.

[MiniDeathStar]

Towncredit is the most valuable thing scum could ask for in this game, and they only need *one* townread scummo to win.