The real folk blues [Canceled]

[davesaz]

Wow, I went fishing and the game filled and started.
VOTE: grapes

[davesaz]

I changed my mind, don't think nc is scum any more.

VOTE: SirCakez (this is effectively a blank vote)

Why say it's blank?
<back to the 10 more pages of catchup>

[davesaz]

Please vote hydra slots with their hydra name - that is hellish confusing for me

I'd suggest not counting them, but up to you.

[davesaz]

I'm a miller.

I like it quick and painless.

UNVOTE:

[davesaz]

hey nero since this is multiball are u sure ur not scum either tbh?

Multiball you say? Size of game suggests it's a possibility but you seem pretty confident.

[davesaz]

I thought this was a vig announcement. That'd have been extremely interesting...

Kinda early for that unless you think we already have someone in the "better dead" category.
If you do have such a read please share.

[davesaz]

I removed the color so that I can actually read them. Without doing that, very little chance.

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Maker of Zanos  (100%) - Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)
Killthestory (+75%) - With KTS, it mainly cones down to a gutread and his posts makes me feel he's town this game.

Null

(0% - 30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)
Spyrex (+10%) - Ascended Masters brought up some good points against my "case" earlier. I have reconsidered my read and while they havent done anything I'd called really town indicative, an unbiased view reveals that they haven't really done too much in terms of scum actions either.
SirCakez (0%) - Cannot compute; maybe my other head has an opinion here (?)

Neutral

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read)
Scrub (+50%) - Feels like townie frustration concerning his wagon. I would argue (possibly biasedly) that his vote switch onto us wasn't really good but likely from frustration and confirmation bias.
Diamond (-40%) - His logical reasoning has been pretty bad this game, but I wonder if thats always the case. I don't have extensive meta, so my read here isn't final or even very strong.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Summary of everyone I did an ISO read for.
~Zanos

[davesaz]

In the meantime while I'm dreaming of ending this day within a reasonable amount of time, I'd like to hear fancy reads (if you have special reasons for killing them or you'd argue their wagon if it popped up) on these people:

1. randomidget
5. Space Dandy [Hydra of Varsoon and Shiro]
6. DrippingGoofball
7. Albert B. Rampage
8. Road Kamelot
11. Mirhawk
14. Klingoncelt
15. Vedith
18. grapes
20. SirCakez
23. PeregrineV
24. davesaz
29. Nosferatu
32. Giovanni il Pellegrino

With the common thread being most (all?) of the people on the list have low post counts, this is a

scum

point of view.
The #1 reason to lynch is obv scum. If you don't have obv scum, the #2 reason is information.
Any strategy that removes people from the game without giving information is a scum strategy.

[davesaz]

A wagon I can finally agree with!

VOTE: Maker_of_Zanos

I've looked at your posts after this point and noticed something interesting.
Can you explain why you agree with this wagon?

[davesaz]

Fuck off.
Lynching without information is scum motivated.
Period.
I always have a reason for everything I post.

[davesaz]

Who do you want to lynch

At this point I don't know, but damn sure not anyone on Nacho's list, yet.

[davesaz]

When you say scum-motivated, do you mean that you think The Ascended Masters is more likely to be scum, or just that they are doing anti-town things?

TBH I don't know yet if it's merely anti-town or actually scum driven.
We're given two ears and one mouth for a reason. I prefer listening to talking, and get really upset when people don't respect that.

Pedit: DS please answer my other recent post that was directed toward you.

[davesaz]

Regarding the whining about short wagons -- Is it even beyond 48 hours yet? What's the big rush?

[davesaz]

A wagon I can finally agree with!

VOTE: Maker_of_Zanos

I've looked at your posts after this point and noticed something interesting.
Can you explain why you agree with this wagon?

I have nothing more than he's (again) done everything shy of claiming scum.

Please point to said "everything" he's done. Quotes preferable.

[davesaz]

Also what's this (again) thing you refer to? Help those of us who have never seen a post by Zanos prior to this game.

Spoiler: reminder

For those who have played with me before (I know it's a lot but don't have an actual count) this type of post should be very familiar.

[davesaz]

Nero, can you do me a favor and pick one of those to give a reason for?

[davesaz]

I'm Town,
Grapes is a Miller,
Giovanni il Pellegrino is replacing out,
Space Dandy is a dandy kind of guy, no way can that hydra be lynched today,

and then there's the unusually quiet Albert B. Rampage... hmm...

Not taking your word for it, obviously.
Grapes

claimed

miller, which is enough for now...
Space Dandy... who? I feel really suspicious of any assumption that someone is unlynchable though.

ABR hasn't just been quiet, he's been absent. Which is one of the factors often overlooked when looking at just post count.

[davesaz]

The Collective:
Masters
SpyreX
Rb
KTS
Skrub
DS
Cakez
Pisskop
Vifam

I think that's a pretty damn good start. Lets use it like a sword

Odds are high that at least one scum is in your list.
Odds are somewhat higher that the person who proclaims the townblock is scum.

[davesaz]

If you actually believe this then we truly are at the gates of hell abandon all hopes ye who entered here

Is this a reply to KlingonCelt? That's what I'd assume, but if not then what is it in reply to?

[davesaz]

P.s. i really want to see the data backing up your 'odds' there

The chance of scum in a random collection of 25% of the playerlist is almost 100%. In fact it may even be more than 100% (I'm being a bit lazy and not bothering to compute it), though the number itself is meaningless other than as a guide.
Why so touchy about it?

[davesaz]

Umm, who are you ranting about?

[davesaz]

I've seen a lot of scum pushing themselves as part of town blocks. Town don't usually bother to push a town block because a group of people who mutually town read each other is usually self evident.
Would it bother you as much if I said "in my experience the person pushing the town block is more likely to be scum, if there is one"?

[davesaz]

Umm, who are you ranting about?

People not quicklynching in the first few days of the thread opening, and lurkers and cerberuses

Although I think it's a bit extreme, I'm not unvoting because I don't want to get yelled at. We should at least wait for most of the people on Nacho's list to become readable imo.

I was actually referring to 1566. Weeks to get a lynch on whom? (or weeks to get a lynch at all??)

[davesaz]

Honestly, I'm just already bored to shit out of my mind.

You could try actually answering questions that people ask you to try to determine your alignment.

[davesaz]

VOTE: DiamondSentinel
Blatantly ducking giving any reason for votes.

I'm not against voting MoZ but the

why

is rather mysterious to me.

What

are they doing / not doing which makes them scum?

[davesaz]

cerbrus, abr, davesaz fuggin do something sometim, kthnx

Evidently you're not reading?

[davesaz]

I'm caught up with current events but have not had a chance to investigate anything from yesterday.
Mathblade's suspicions all look quite genuine. If the inputs to that logic are correct then the conclusions seem very valid.
SpyreX, did you ever give a case on Maker yesterday, or did you just push that lynch for lols? I could check myself but it's more fun inviting you to elaborate.

[davesaz]

Because SpyreX is misrepping the situation I care.

And trying to discredit too.

[davesaz]

He really got my goat what can i say. Said i was a troll i never.

Before you put a chip on your shoulder, best to check if it's a buffalo chip.

[davesaz]

I'm going to vote for who I really see as scum

Who are you voting for?

[davesaz]

Without hardclaiming, can kraska tell us if she is some kind of paranoid "bomb" owner? That's really all I need. Otherwise I'm cool with seeing us switch gears and go after mirhawk or davesaz.

Not a smart move. Never hand possible scum an alibi on a silver platter, make them at least work to figure out what role they'd need to claim.
(Not that it's rocket science, but there's still the chance that she might have screwed it up)

[davesaz]

If you're gonna make such a big deal about it then I'll vote mirhawk.

VOTE: mirhawk

I don't get what the big deal was. It still makes more sense to me to do it the other way around, but whatever

This seems pretty appeasy and unnecessary.

[davesaz]

Kraska, the content of your post doesn't match the vote. Plz explain.

[davesaz]

^^
What's that supposed to be?

That would be the point where The Maker wagon overcame your own. Therefore, Maker was a counterwagon to you.

Next step will be to look at the posts involved in the shift. But it's very time consuming, and I hope that someone already looked at it and can give a rundown.

I was really suspicious of the maker wagon, especially the lack of any real case from anyone. I've thought all along that it was likely one or two vocal scum along with a bunch of sheep.
But I'm in the same position regarding analysis, haven't had the free time to dedicate to looking hard at it.

[davesaz]

People saying that Moz was a counter wagon, that's dumb. People moved off of my wagon and onto that one because we had

light image reasons

to scumread them. They were scummy as hell.

What does the underlined mean?

[davesaz]

Kraska, the content of your post doesn't match the vote.

huh why not?

Disregard, I read it wrong.

[davesaz]

I'm seeing Vedith posting things that are commentary on the wagons, but it's once removed. He made comments about the people voting on the wagons, vs. comments on the wagons themselves.
It is pretty shallow though.

[davesaz]

I don't remember, have you given an actual reason?

[davesaz]

People saying that Moz was a counter wagon, that's dumb. People moved off of my wagon and onto that one because we had

light image reasons

to scumread them. They were scummy as hell.

What does the underlined mean?

Legitimate reasons

You mean those things I've been asking for and not getting replies about?
Specific. Quotable. Reasons. Not merely "scummy as hell".
If you can't provide evidence, then it's not legitimate.

[davesaz]

Trimming things down a bit...

Sure. He's wagon hopping like crazy, and when the wagon formed on him he tried way too hard to seem like he didn't care by self voting. But that just made him seem more desperate. Plus he made this horrible post earlier

What is this? An OMGUS cuz I voted you? Trust me, I've made worse reads & votes before.
~Zanos

What's horrible about calling a post OMGUS?

VOTE: Skrub

You seem to not like votes on yourself with little justification. You voted us with little justification yourself. I am not entirely sure whether you genuinely scumread us or are looking for reasons to vote us to push our wagon. Ircher mentioned in the PT that Town need to look for genuine scumminess, be more open minded, and stop voting us for reasons that don't hold water.

I will analyse Skrub more later when I have more time but I already scumread this slot and this vote is better than nothing.

~Maker

This is weak sauce. The fact that you said you need to analyze me later implied that you voted me without even reading my posts. And then you said this vote is "better than nothing" which feels like you don't even really believe that I'm scum. This guy needs to be lynched.

So it actually is OMGUS, eh?

I read those exact same Maker posts as town. Got anything else?

[davesaz]

My standard of reasoning is being able to point to something a player does, and explain why it is scummy.
Not merely say it's scummy.
Not merely say they're doing scummy things.

Back then, I did not see that kind of reasoning. And I don't see it now. It's missing the why.
But I understand that there are some people who don't expect this.

[davesaz]

So much discussion of people who should be vigged. Are those serious or just wishful thinking?

[davesaz]

Hmm, huge slowdown.

VOTE: Skrub

[davesaz]

I looked at KTS iso, and found plenty of empty drivel and no attempt to find scum.
I'm willing to see where that goes.
VOTE: KTS

[davesaz]

DGB beetlejuiced pretty hard, definitely gonna withhold judgment there.

[davesaz]

id be okay with gentle klingy, ari, or rk pressure as well.

arislot has done fuckall this game and a huggyfeely wallpost or three doesnt change that.
klingy is ditto - but for old meta i can give it a pass for now
rk is inconsistent or not transparent enough. take a pick

But Klingoncelt claimed scum

Oh, and Expedience lied about me claiming Scum.

I never claimed Scum, because I'm not.

Even if I were I wouldn't.

For that idiocy you should be policy lynched.

But you're Scum so we'll lynch you for being Scum.

Lying Scum.

When scum accuse town they discredit without caring about distinguishing between town or scum, she describes my post as both idiocy and a scumtell. I can't be both but in both cases what I'm saying about her is untrue. And being upset only meshes with me being an idiot. She's upset because I gave a poorly explained but correct read.

It seemed obvious to me but I don't think anyone got it.

I kinda agree with this point.

[davesaz]

^i.e. the list of people in the hood

It's Vifam (formerly), Mathblade, Mirhawk, Panzer, davesaz

Panzer and davesaz: you guys agree with

3) There is scum in our hood and Mirhawk keeps insisting it is not the case and posting terribad bullshit in there.

?

Neither of you have seemed interested in pushing Mirhawk in thread so I'm curious if you agree with math's take here, or if you think they're just wrong, or if you think they're bullshitting.

The correct statement is there could be scum in our hood. It's not a masonry, but no guarantee there is scum either.
I think the sensible approach is to consider lynching the last one standing after the rest are NK'd, unless there is some town confirmation before that point.
The only rush lynching within the hood would be to clear it for safe conversation, which I would not call a priority.
Of course if we had an actual guilty and not circumstantial evidence, I'd be on that already.

[davesaz]

Confirm Mirhawk made a comment about faking being interested in the game. But it's not clear he's the scum (if any).

Agree that, if Kraska has a role which matches the kill it would make sense to claim that earlier. I pointed out someone who appeared to be coaching her on what to say, and her claim came after that coaching. Which makes me wonder whether it's a fakeclaim, and after Gistou it would not surprise me in the slightest if FA provides scum with a flavor fakeclaim.

My playstyle works best when there are big wagons, preferably big changes in big wagons. If y'all would please assist with running one or more people up I'd be grateful.

[davesaz]

VOTE: TAM
Didn't think this was viable before but I took a lot of their D1 content as LAMIST without actually doing anything. They're still not doing anything.

[davesaz]

Oh good, it's up and stayed up.

I thought the previous question was whether it's better to lynch active vs lurker.
But in either case, it's not an issue of info vs. no info, it's an issue of more info vs. less info.

Pedit: and I took too long, conversation has moved on.

[davesaz]

There's a difference between town who don't give a fuck and scum who are trying to look like town who don't give a fuck. The latter wave it in everyone's faces (e.g. 2774) and blatantly try to hide behind it (e.g. 3809). The fact that Nosferatu does this openly just makes it easier to see because he thinks wifom will protect him

I agree with this, but I'm not sure if it's insightful or merely obvious.

Nonetheless,
VOTE: Nosferatu

TAM could still be scum, Nacho is good enough to appear town. But I like them a lot more now and it's not like this is a now or never situation.
I'd be willing to vote Kraska because PGO is something that scum can claim to try to stay alive, especially if MB though that's unclear atm.
Skrub's reaction looked vaguely town, though I have seen scum pull off a reversal in exactly the same way.

[davesaz]

Nero is scum for continuing to push KTS exclusively based on this

I'm pretty sure that Nero is doing lots of other stuff. Where do you get "pushing KTS exclusively" from?

[davesaz]

I looked at KTS iso, and found plenty of empty drivel and no attempt to find scum.

Has this changed? My guess is not.

[davesaz]

The "other than shot" kill flavors

could

be SK, or even vigs. In which case they are not mafia and don't have guns.

If conclusion jumping were an Olympic sport we'd have some gold medalists here.

[davesaz]

I had kraska as likely fakeclaim, and panzer had slipped that poison was confirmed which had me questioning him. I was quiet about both of those, especially in the bebop, because I had private plans to deal with it later.
Whether I would have been able to swing town on those opinions is a different question to which I have no answer.

And pre /in for next.

[davesaz]

I'm crazy to do so, but confirm /pre.

[davesaz]

ebwop i'm crazy because i'm already in 3 games
makes a whole lot more sense with the reason