California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[Talitha]

/confirm, yo

[Talitha]

I just wanted to check in and say that I am aware that they game has started but I'm too tired to contribute anything meaningful right now! The game appears to be advancing rapidly which is a good thing. I'll catch up with where we are at, tomorrow.

I also wanted to note that IH appears in the player list where it should be DP.

Until tomorrow, bon soir, tout le monde.

[Talitha]

To be fair to Skruffs, I think many of us would also have been defensive in response to that very early bandwagon, and the fact it was gathering some momentum. And when a player is defensive an air of OMGUS usually appears in their posts, and it is natural to accuse an accuser of 'misrepresentation' or something similar which, when one has calmed down, one may realise was too strong of a word.

So, no opinion on Skruffs right now.

As I was reading over the day so far I noted down some names that pushed my buttons just a little. I will vote for the only one of them that I am aware already has a vote, and list the remainder (because it's a fun new rule).

vote: playswithsquirrels

, cubsfan, Oman, Zindy, no lynch , MoS

[Talitha]

List-votes are all potentially lynch-deciding votes, so each has to be well documented.

Aw c'mon, we are playing a game here, not writing a piece of legislation. And it's Day 1. Besides, the list votes will only count if we cannot reach a majority; I am not really worried about that happening with the activity level we have here.

Also, I don't want to deter anyone from posting their votes and list votes. Reasons are nice but anyone can make up a reasonable sounding reason - I see scum do it all the time. The REAL info is in the votes.. who votes for who, and when. Having said that it only becomes very useful when a few people die and a few alignments are revealed. The reasons given are like the froth on the top.

In summary: Votes with reasons are slightly better than votes without reasons, but a vote with no reason given is far better than no vote.

[Talitha]

Suppose for a moment we come to a deadline and the third person on jeep's list gets the chop and turns up town. How would that provide info? Would it make a difference if it was the sixth person on a list that died?

I still don't see this as likely to happen

at all

, but I will answer you. It provides all the obvious information, eg. that the person was town, that Jeep wanted to lynch them as a 3rd/6th choice, and obviously others must have had him/her listed for a lynch as well. Now I ask to you, how much difference does it make if Jeep invents a logical sounding reason for all of those he has listed, to appease you? There are a thousand reasons he could make up, and people who have been playing this game a while are most likely going to be convincing. I am not saying that giving reasons never helps, I am saying

don't stifle people from voting by pretending that it's a rule that votes must be accompanied by a reason

. Because if I am still alive later in the game and re-reading over day 1 trying to find the scum, I will be looking at the votes first, the reasons second.

Zindaras: You asked about where and how the players I meantioned pressed my buttons - I didn't actually note down the details, just the fact that they did. This was mainly due to it being early day 1 and I don't care to expend too much energy this early

I am not going to vote Jeep today and would never advise lynching him Day 1 without solid incriminating evidence. He may be scum, but he might also be town.

I am on the fence with Lee as well, but I think he is an "out there" kind of player who stirs things up and should probably be watched closely but not lynched yet.

Am using my list as a reminder to myself who I am suspicious of; adding Mgm, upgrading Oman, removing no lynch.:
vote: playswithsquirrels, Oman, Cubsfan, Mgm, Zindy, MoS

[Talitha]

Might as well lock that in.

vote: playswithsquirrels

Oman, Cubsfan, Mgm, Zindy, MoS

[Talitha]

I am here! mith sorted me out with a proxy, thanks mith.

I am going to stick with my vote on PWS for now. If there were any other votes on Oman, I would consider switching. They are my main 2 suspects.

I hesitate to say I think Skruffs is innocent as I really don't have enough info to be confident.. but I still maintain I could see a townie acting the way he did. I think I will read over his posts one more time and then make a call on whether I can support the bandwagon or not, seeing as he is the bandwagon du jour. I'll do this tomorrow if I get a chance

Re: Jeep... I do also kinda think he could be scum. I just haven't felt the townie conviction from his posts, I guess.

I'm not usually one who lists players who I have a good feeling are town, not this early anyway. I don't like to give the scum help in choosing their targets.

[Talitha]

And knowing mith, the chances of there being a jester in the pool are astronomically small.

But mith loves Jesters!

[Talitha]

I am going to unvote PWS. Sounds like he's busy right now, and don't want him to feel pressured into asking for replacement. I hope he sticks around. Besides, a couple of other players have moved up my list.

Oman, unfortunately is getting replaced. But he was trying to fit in by posting analysis about all the players. He only got through three. But, as scum,

it's hard work

posting analysis about other players. You have to really think, can't just go with your natural reactions. I can understand why he stopped at 3, if he's scum. Also the comment about "gun-to-head", reinforces my impression that his analysis is a forced effort. So, scum. But I'll give his replacement a chance to settle in before placing a vote.

Cubsfan has only expressed suspicion of one player, LML. He mentioned something about weird vibes, but did not place a vote on LML (or anyone else...)
No vote gets my vote. Also, <3 Pooky. Also, IGMEOLML if cubs turns up scum.

unvote: playswithsquirrels
vote: cubsfan

, Oman, MOS, Zindy, PWS

[Talitha]

- Tally makes him happy? She hasn't said anything of importance or value

Um, I haven't?

Tally:
- Cubsfan #1 option, huh? You can't just tease us by saying "I find these people scummy" then not telling us why, unless you are trying to establish some worth to the town to keep you. But I'd rather your worth as far as the ideas in your mind be known rather than promised.
-Blows steam, says nothing about why she supposes the guilt that she does suppose

Gosh, I really don't like your tone. As long as I'm within the rules I actually

can

play however I choose to. But did you actually read my posts? I coulda sworn I stated my reasons when I moved Cubs to #1. Skimmer.

I think you are the one blowing steam, and you're trying to draw me into an argument that in no way helpful to the town.

I think you deserve to be added to the voting list, but I'll read over the rest of your contribution first.

[Talitha]

Because if I am still alive later in the game and re-reading over day 1 trying to find the scum, I will be looking at the votes first, the reasons second.

In italics-Why? Wouldn't you think it more significant they didn't have a reason, or do you mean the later on condercent voting things.

Short answer: No.
But sure... lack of reason accompanying vote could be significant for several different reasons, but not

more

significant than the vote itself. (I don't really want to dwell too much longer on arguments that might be better fitted for the 'Mafia Discussion' forum )

[Talitha]

A 2 SENTENCE REASON IS PERFECTLY FINE FOR DAY 1.

Either explain why you think my behaviour is SCUMMY or let's move on, please Tamuz.

[Talitha]

*yawn*

[Talitha]

Sorry to hear that PWS

Tamuz: "3 times?" I count once. Is that a mistake or a misrepresentation?

[Talitha]

Does day end in around 4 days?

Good point, we need to get cracking here.

Tamuz, I am not going to provide explanations for eveyone on my condorcet list. Especially not early on day 1. If it means you can't follow me well so be it. You'll just have to read the thread and make up your own mind Plus I am happy to answer questions that arent just an attack on my play style.

So, it's interesting to note my two top suspects are voting for LML ... I'm not sure if this means Lee is innocent, or if he's getting bussed, or if i'm wrong

I'm still liking the cubs vote though.

[Talitha]

I don't want explanations for everyone, just cubs. He is the one in my eyes that I don't see any real reason for you to treat him as you have. And you avoid tooth and nail explaining to me why.

If you really wanted to know, you could have just asked! Nothing personal but I am going to ignore you for a little while, because (with my limited time available to play this game) I have been distracted by your opinions about me, and not paying attention to everyone else. And with a deadline fast approaching that's not helpful.
(Will post more shortly when I am caught up.)

[Talitha]

Cubs: Defending someone isn't scummy in itself, but defending someone THAT early, when I don't see how you could have a definite feeling about their innocence does ring alarm bells. Plus it was only 4 votes, with many more needed to lynch. What were you worried about?

[Talitha]

BattleMage:

deadline is September 10th, 9:30 GMT

Respite is not helpful right now, neither is unvoting. We need to get more bloodthirsty otherwise we'll end up with the situation that I sneered at and said would bever happen! (Condorcet lynch).
BM,even scum can make up nice-sounding posts. Your 'I'll give you a break for now but reserve my right to jump back on the bandwagon' post is making me start to look at you with more interest.

Perhaps he was worried about someone pushing a faulty case too far? I don't think the attacks on DP have merit, so I defend him. There is a chance I change my opinion later, but someone who is getting attacked with what you perceive to be craplogic (or one of its cousins) is enough reason to save them from a day one lynch.

I wholeheartedly agree with you, but this doesn't apply here as Skruffs was nowhere near in any danger of being lynched at that time. There

was

no case for the Skruff's lynch at that point, but I would expect people with true town intentions to be interestly weighing up the evidence that the bandwagon was generating. The only reason i can see for opposing that bandwagon at that point is a scum who is trying to appear nice and benign and town-ish. I don't believe Cubs would have had enough of a conviction that Skruffs is innocent to act the way he did that early on, if he were a clueless townie.

[Talitha]

I meant

never

, and

interestedly

. Sorry, I will preview from now on.

[Talitha]

OK, just as long as you are aware that somebody gotta be strung up, and soon

[Talitha]

@MgM
The question is, now that your subconscious has bought it to your attention, does your conscious agree?

[Talitha]

I stayed up late tonight to make sure I was caught up on all the posts in this thread before I made my final vote.

I still see Cubs as the most likely scum of anyone. I am tending towards town for BattleMage. I am tending towards scum for Lee, but unsure of myself on that one. IH seems less scummy to me that Oman did, but the suspicion is still there.

Gaspar is proving to be a worthy replacement for PWS. I feel comfortable with GASPAR because of the amount of text being posted in a short time makes me feel that they are comfortable in the role and therefore less likely to be scum.

xyzzy moves onto my list because I realised he was flying so low he wasn't even on my radar. He voted once, very early and has not updated his vote or list at all since.

Dani/Mos is the other who is far too below radar for me to leave them off the list.

I am curious about Adele too.

vote: cubsfan [Oman, Dani, xyzzy], [Lee, Adele, Zindaras]

I have no idea what this does to the condorcet lynch, but hopefully people posting after me will have more clue and will ensure a lynch.

Votes/Unvotes not appearing at the bottom of the post are not counted. Tags removed. - Mod

[Talitha]

vote: cubsfan

, [Oman, Dani, xyzzy], [Lee, Adele, Zindaras]

[Talitha]

Well, three people who were thought to be dubious yesterday are dead and all three turned up innocent. I'm less surprised that Jeep/Battle Mage was innocent, but rather surprised about cubs and xxyzz.

I need to digest this new info and look back over Day 1 before making a new/improved lynch list.

[Talitha]

I still have yet to get my head properly around all these latest developments, but right now I'm interested in Dani. I can't really relate to Dani's confidence that the two people mentioned are town. The opinion as expressed seems a little strong to me, considering how hard i am finding it to get a read on people in this game.

Also, MoS early on seemed more defensive about being voted for than I would have expected if he were town.

So, until I have time to reassess all other players,

vote: Dani Banani

[Talitha]

I am wondering what people who are having a tough time reading people in this game should actually say so as to please Pookybear. I am not going to make up some reasons to make myself sound better, that is the gameplay of scum.

"it also alerts the scum as to who is confused about the game so that they know who they don't need to kill." And our vote lists don't? C'mon Pooks, this kind of reasoning isn't up to your usual standards

Anyway, I acept the point about being non-commital, I will rectify that, but not tonight as i am too tired.

[Talitha]

I disagree

[Talitha]

Pooky! Your whole argument rests on the assumption that people are correct in their own assessments of whether or not they have a good read on "everybody in the game" (thanks for putting words in my mouth )! Clueless townies can really only guess whether their read is any good! It's the scum who have the info. Clueless townies can also help the town by posting their thoughts and feelings about the game as they go and helping others to get a read on THEM.

PS I don't think this argument is very helpful. i want to put my time into reassessing the other players rather than responding to "mafia discussion" type issues.

[Talitha]

Me? I would if i had a chance to look at it. I'm annoyed and I'm going to work now, so "later".

[Talitha]

Talitha: do not like post 685. You cannot keep repeating that you can't get a read on players - sounds very non-committing and scummy to me. Likely scum.

1. I have NOT repeated it. I mentioned once. I did NOT say "can't", I said it was difficult. I feel like I'm channelling Skruffs from day 1 here but if you are sincere in trying to catch scum, PLEASE get your facts right and make your comments accurate.

2. Your accusation doesn't make much sense because in the post you talk about I DO commit, make a vote, and give a reason.

3. The 'having a hard time getting a read' was

part of the reason for my vote

and therefore had to be said!!

4. The 'offending' comment of mine was partially due to how I felt about being wrong about cubsfan. You (DP) were also wrong about him, in fact you referred to him also as "likely scum" in post 231. This is interesting to me, because I think that of everyone in the game, DP should have been able to relate to what I said. He gets a FOS, for now.


To everyone: I am still catching up with the game and have only had time to skim and respond to things directly concerning me. The annoyance I mentioned earlier is mainly due to having a bad week and was not directed at anyone in this game.

Tags removed. Please use bold tags only for voting and unvoting. - Mod

[Talitha]

I am almost caught up but my eyes have been glazing over the last couple of pages.

I know that mith does not like players to be lynched or spared based on their role claim (remember the 'lynch or lynch not; there is no claim' avatar?), so I think we will do better to look at the play and not give the claim too much importance.

So I have my reservations about both claims, but in Lee's favour is the fact he survived the duel with cubs which is making him look pretty innocent.

I am extremely interested in the discrepancy between the role cubs claimed and the role revealed on death. I am going to hazard a guess that cubs did not intentionally lie, and that this is some kind of mod bastardry. (If he was really just Kirk Kevorkian, how does the duel fit in???) A wild speculation I had is that maybe we each have two roles.. a monte cristo one, and a (loosely) corresponding Fresno one, but we are only told one or other of the names.

In other news I am really liking the foolinc wagon.
I will give my opinion on all players this weekend, but for now just the list:

(Thesp only just makes the list, to remind myself to look at him more closely.)

unvote: Dani
vote: foolinc,

Adele, Dani, IH, Mgm, Pooky (huggles), Skruffs, Tamuz, Thesp

[Talitha]

Dani, you only responded to one of Thesp's suspicions. What do you think of the other suspicions against you? I am a little surprised you didnt say anything about the supposedly threatening post towards me...

When I get around to posting a new condorcet list I am going to move Dani back up into 1st or 2nd as (from memory) I put Adele above Dani, but I've never played with Adele before and a lot of my suspicion on her has come from other people's opinions.

[Talitha]

@Gaspar/Glork
not sure if you still wanted a response from me, seeing as you saw the reaching i was talking about, but i've only played w/ a lyncher role 2x that i can recall, and both of those were in RL @ Thespival... the first time, Thesp was the lyncher w/ me as the target, the 2nd time, Talitha was the lyncher w/ me as a target... Thesp's argument from this game reminds me of the subtle stretch to make someone look like scum that he used from Thespival... so, no, it's not OMGUS, it's based on experience... (too bad i can't see how's he's sitting, THAT would give it away)...

i'm not buying this from Dani. I don't think he really believes that Thesp is a lyncher. How often does a lyncher come up in a closed setup forum game? Hardly ever, and I'm sure Dani is aware of this. I think bringing up the lyncher is just a convenient reason (based on memories of Thespival) for Dani to back up his OMGUS against Thesp.

[Talitha]

I'm not sure about the secret words... I believe they probably have some function in the game, but whether putting them out there is a good idea is anyone's guess. The only thing I am worried about with keeping them secret is that they can be lost when a player dies. But we don't know whether they can even help the town, or whether they could hurt the town!

It reminds me of a game at MoSfest where the mod gave us a big red button and said we could push it at any time. We never pushed it.

I think I brought up that example because my gut is telling me to err on the side of caution and keep secret words secret.

[Talitha]

At the start of the game I had foolinc down as a likely townie, just because his 'roles that might be in the game' and speculating on which roles the mafia might have, and seeming pretty genuine, didnt strike me as something a mafioso would likely do. Then I moved him to 'unsure', as the way he popped into the thread with helpful comments (eg. Reminding me to put my vote at the bottom of a post, etc.) made me feel like he might be scum keen to appear extra helpful.

Then Gaspar posted this:

It seems that all Fool did was modify his end-of-day VC from yesterday by bumping up the people who were mutually suspected by the dead players. While it shows consistency, I have to question Foolinc's failure to take into account any of the discussions today, as I just indicated above.)

Which pushed my suspicion of foolinc even further, as I would expect someone who is genuinely trying to find scum would reassess things after a lynch and a nightkill and all that added information.

So there you are foolinc, that's why I'm voting for you. But as I've been looking over foolinc's posts I'm feeling less sure about him being scum.

My vote list may change.. I want to look over a few other players' posts too.

unvote: foolinc
vote: Dani,

IH, foolinc, Pooky (huggles), MrBuddyLee, Mgm, Skruffs, Tamuz, Thesp, Gaspar

[Talitha]

Am I the only one who notices that foolinc is calling it incorrectly a PASSWORD repeatedly? I'm even more happy now with my vote.

i'm not sure I follow - Are you saying that you don't think scum have these words, therefore foolinc doesn't know what to call it?

[Talitha]

Pooky, I am pretty sure that someone with such an excellent grasp of the English language such as yourself would be able to come up with 25 words that are related to this game. I was starting to wonder if you were seeking out some football playing role, or something.

[Talitha]

Something about the way IH (see post 924) is reacting to every single post and bumping people up and down his list as he reads singular posts seems very

mechanical

to me... I can understand players who play by their gut, and I can understand players who insist on trying to apply logic, but I tend to believe that IH is trying to give the appearance of hunting scum, while not actually hunting scum.

Ah but he's already second on my list, so that's good.

[Talitha]

You're joking, correct? Me trying to make sure everything is covered is scummy?

It's the way you're doing it, that's scummy. It seems like you are examining each post out of context, with very little thought, rather than thinking about the game and players' posts as a whole. I think it's a good sign that you're scum, unless you want to try and convince me you always play like this.

Also Tally, some things you seemed to have missed and just not responded to, which i thought you might want to do.

I hate this reasoning. Bumping Talitha up.

You didnt even say why you hate my reasoning, so I'm at a loss as to what you want a response to. However this is a good example of your mechanical treatment of individual posts.

I believe CES and MGM both did this though.

Indeed, but i wasn't concentrating on them at that time. Foolinc had

asked

about why i was voting for him and i was explaining my thought processes about him as the game went along. Please note that foolinc is no longer my top vote. Pay attention to context, sir!

[Talitha]

Posting to remove foolinc from my condorcet, and switch MBL & Pooky on a whim

vote: Dani,

IH, MrBuddyLee, Pooky, Skruffs, Tamuz, [all other options]

[Talitha]

Wouldn't a dayvig worry to some extent about a cop investigation clearing xyxxy? Or the possibility that he's a power role with results to share? Vigging start of day seems like a terribly reckless venture to me,

Any

vig would worry about those things, but they do (and probably should) kill anyway. Unless they actually claim and express their intention to kill someone shortly, there's not a lot that can be done about it.

For those who are voting Mgm, I would like to hear your opinion on his claim.. do you think Eugenie was a safe claim provided by the mod, or a fake claim that Mgm researched and planned to make right from the start of the game, hoping that no-one else had that role?

Or is there another possiblity that I have not thought of? Because I don't think that either of the two scenarios that I mentioned are very likely.

[Talitha]

Oh I thought of another one - ... or do you think he actually

is

Eugenie, but Eugenie is scum?

[Talitha]

My first reaction is... Holy crap!

So, IH and Dani are still my top suspects... the condorcet lists might give some interesting information now too.

I'm also going to look at where Thesp was on people's condorcets... scum buddies might have listed him as higher than would be expected.

(I normally wouldn't verbalise all this stuff. But in this game the choice is to type out what I'm thinking, or talk about football).

(Football post coming later).

[Talitha]

Not necessarily foolinc, as it seems we have 2 scum groups. The scum would probably know from the size of their group that there's likely another family out there. I think Lee's point about IH is the best evidence that we have so far.

And yeah - it looks like Thesp's group must have killed Skruffs. Interesting.

And who were the players making a fuss about the "Yay Thesp" comment? I think one was Pooky but I'm too lazy to go searching right now.

[Talitha]

It's slightly odd, and makes you look slightly more suspicious, but each scum group might have thought the other group would kill you.

Not ruling out the possibility of a scum doctor either. I don't know enough about the theme to know whether your claimed character could be aligned with a scum faction. Anyone who knows the book care to comment on this?

[Talitha]

Further explanation required.

[Talitha]

Well, this is totally hypothetical, but if I were in a scum group of 3 people and my group name was

Parisian mafia

, and in a game this size... would I not conclude that there was very likely another group? If there's only one mafia group, Thesp's role should've simply been

Baron Danglars (mafia)

.

[Talitha]

I wonder if the other group is a Fresno mafia?

[Talitha]

Ah - you're right. But I still maintain that a scum group, who know how many members they have, what their abilities are, etc, would have a decent idea of whether there are other killing groups in the game.

[Talitha]

OK then - out of curiosity Zindy, what do you see as the likeliest explanation for why foolinc was not killed overnight?

[Talitha]

Can you please point out where I talked about it as if it was certain? I'm checking over my posts and I'm not seeing it.

[Talitha]

OK listen very carefully. I shall say this only once. I do not have knowledge of the game setup. I have not expressed "confidence" or "certainty". I did speculate based purely on what I saw in this morning's opening post and on a slightly unexpected night outcome. I put forward two explanations and implied preference for one of them. MBL - why are you asking me about stuff which is in the book when I've already said I'm not familiar with the book?

LML - Don't get me started on WIFOM. It's the most useless and overused acronym ever, and I only ever see it when someone wants to shut down a discussion that I think is interesting and potentially helpful. And if you think I am trying to get foolinc lynched (is that why you're voting me? i am having problems following your posted thought processes in this game) then it's kinda weird that my theorizing (that everyone is commenting about) involves him being town. (BTW in your post you have foolinc as lower than no lynch on your condorcet, yet you're disturbed about his secret word not being very pro-town. Which is it Lee?)

[Talitha]

This may change slightly, but for now..

vote: IH

, IH, IH, IH, Mr Grey, IH, ih, Dani, MBL.

[Talitha]

That's an interesting observation about LML's post, Sarcastro. I'm probably going to get myself in more trouble here for speculation, but I don't think that the mod would make a serial killer who had to post the name of the victim in capital letters in the thread immediately before the victim died - that seems like too hard of a role, to me. However, mafia member with an extra day-kill seems like a possibility. It might be a coincidence.. i think LML is a player who likes to post in caps a lot.. but the capitalisation of the name in that post DOES seem a bit out of place. I think we can probably rule out vigilante... if he's a vig, that means he lied about his role, and Lee seemed way too willing to claim to be a pro-towner who needed to lie to protect his identity.
I need to look at the duel and Cubs' role more closely. Is it possible Cubs just

thought

that he could kill scum (just like he

thought

he was the Count of Monte Cristo?)

FOS: LML

Why I think IH needs to die.

My answer is in two parts. Firstly the behaviour of Oman and to a slightly lesser extent IH has always struck me as likely scum. I'll back this up when I go over the thread, hopefully tomorrow. Secondly the roleclaim. I think IH made a mistake when reading the example role that the mod gave us - a little misunderstanding that caused him to think that there are townies in the games called 'Innocent Fresninos' when in fact I believe that every role PM has an actual proper name - 'Innocent' being the first name in the example role, and 'Fresnino' being the surname. (This was hard to explain... I hope it's understandable.)

[Talitha]

CES - I know, but go and check your role PM then tell me that 'Innocent Fresnino' isn't a filler for a proper name.

[Talitha]

go and check your role PM then tell me that 'Innocent Fresnino' isn't a filler for a proper name

That should have been "...go and check your role PM

and compare it to the example on page 1

...".

[Talitha]

The connection between lace and poison suddenly occured to me. What made you use the word 'lace' Lee?

[Talitha]

I think, as a mod, you either give an example OR you make all the townie PMs different. You don't bother doing both. I also don't believe there are players without a proper name, and I'm willing to test my theory by lynching IH.

The Mr Grey thing is a silly distraction, IMO.

[Talitha]

How can Mr Grey's inclusion in a condorcet list be a mistake on the mod's part? The players make the lists, right? I'm not even sure when Mr Grey first popped up, but I assume a PLAYER included him, and Mr Grey, conscientious mod that he is, simply followed the player's wishes.

[Talitha]

If I were scum, Gaspar, and I thought i had found a possible SK, or someone that I could convince others was an SK, I would be following it like a hound. A bit like you are.
FOS: Gaspar

As it is I see two FAR better candidates to be discussing right now and other people are dismissing them to talk about the MOD, who isn't even a player for crissakes. What are you trying to achieve here? Go ahead, lynch the mod, likely get us a no-lynch and a lost day. Whatevs.

Pooky - what do you think about Mr Grey?

Tags removed. Please use bold tags only for voting and unvoting. - Mod

[Talitha]

Oh hey can you fix that accidental bolding in my post, Mr Grey, thx.

[Talitha]

are you implying that if you were town and you had found a possible SK, you wouldn't be following it like a hound?

Hmm, not necessarily. But as town I'm more concerned with scum groups, as SKs rarely win, and can help take out scum while they are alive. In this particular case, I think Lee is the best lead right now for the death of Xyzzy, not Mr Grey. The only other death that Mr Grey could be responsible for is Thesp, is that right? I just can't see how that could possibly be. The player killed would have to be picked randomly, and I just can't see mith playing a random killer in a game he is modding. He'd never do it.

[Talitha]

OK Glork, we'll try the PJ test. I'm unsure how far the mod will play along with the condorcet funny business though. Regardless, my opinion will remain that we know the mod can't be a member of (any of) the scum group(s), so lynching him today is a waste.

[Talitha]

The reason Mr Grey might be included in the condorcet, when PJ or Batman or Hilary Clinton won't be: Mr Grey is not in the game, but he is in the house.
PJ etc, are not

here

. I believe mith's just being true to his game flavour (as is typical of mith) by having Mr G able to be voted for.

Can we go back to IH, Lee and Dani's replacement? (I've forgotten who is replacing. Too much tangent.)

[Talitha]

[Talitha]

The fact that no-one has been day-killed yet today points even more strongly at Lee being the culprit, IMO. If there were an anti-town day-killer who isn't Lee... surely he would've framed Lee. At the very least Lee would've worried about being framed (like Gaspar pointed out) unless he knew he

couldn't

be framed. His reactions are pretty much cementing my suspicions.

So on the condorcet he goes.

vote: IH

, Lee, Dani, MrBuddyL

[Talitha]

Sorry Sarcastro, that's the second time I've forgotten you.

Why do you find it odd that I would have a player on my condorcet who noticed something suspicious about another player on my condorcet? The only reason this would be odd is if we had some kind of evidence that there is only one scum group.. and even then it could be distancing. Do we only have one scum group Lee.. is that why you felt compelled to say it's odd?

vote: IH

, LML, Sarcastro, MrBuddyL

[Talitha]

I don't think LACE is a coincidence, here's why: It's linked to poison, it was used along with the victim's name right before he died, if the search function is to be believed, the word 'lace' has not been used by anyone on mafiascum since 2003, and it reminds me of the kinds of roles that mith had in Verbose 2 (The mafia had to post a certain phrase publicly in order to recruit the traitor). Just my opinion, but Lee is looking mighty shady right now.

I also went back and found that Tamuz included Mr Grey in his condorcet in post 831. Will be interesting to see how the PJ vote is treated by the mod.

[Talitha]

He wasn't lying through his teeth because the function of his role as he claimed it was

confirmed

by the mod posting the duel.

I have very little doubt that Cubs believed he was the Count of Monte Cristo.

[Talitha]

I also agree that the choice of xyzzy as a kill doesn't make sense. But there might be some restriction that we don't know about. E.g. maybe xyzzy posted something that made him susceptible to being killed.

[Talitha]

All I was meaning is that I think there's some mod funny business as it's the only explanation for what we saw. Cubs wasn't lying. I agree with you that this means the duel "result" should not be relied upon as evidence of innocence.

[Talitha]

Heck, maybe Mr Grey is a ratbag in this game. Heh, I'm starting to second guess myself on that. I don't wanna waste a lynch on him at this point, but what would happen if a vig tried to take out Mr Grey.. would the game be declared mod-abandoned?? Sheesh, I can't believe I am entertaining these thoughts.

Back to the lynching. Who is not voting, and why not?

[Talitha]

If I get lynched today, so be it, but I EXPECT LML and IH to follow as soon as possible.

In the meantime I am going to try and find the time and energy to go over the thread and make a much better case against both of them.

[Talitha]

logisticus: It wasn't desperation, it was just my way of saying that I am not going to get upset and go full-on defending myself right now, because i just don't have the energy to spare.

Re: LML - I never liked the 'searching townie' claim either. It didn't sound mith-ish to me. I put it on the back-burner at the time because the duel result appeared to indicate town.

Seeing as I can't get any support on IH right now I may as well switch.

RE-read still pending. In the meantime,

vote: Lee

, IH

[Talitha]

(That's the Lee of the "Loudmouth" variety, not the MrBuddy variety.)

[Talitha]

I haven't used my word. I don't even think mine is a proper word.

I assume they were included for SOME purpose, but I have no clue what it could possibly be. From a mod's perspective, if i were including secret words in a game I would also include one role whose function has something to do with those secret words.

[Talitha]

I think this is a classic example of a scum getting caught. Notch another one up for Pooky!

(Preview edit: Basically what Sarc said, but in 25+ words).

[Talitha]

That is the scummiest reason ever, foolinc. Basically you are saying 'I'm going to vote for the person who can't defend themself. why? Oh because they can't say anything!'

I'm incredibly suspicious of anyone who has Mr Grey high on their condorcet list for this very reason.

[Talitha]

Why are you most suspicious of those two, logisticus?

[Talitha]

I agree with your assessment that LML was likely lying about parts of his role, even though I disagree that the role as he claimed would be overpowered. It's possible he could day-kill as well as night-kill (would fit with the 'mass murderer' role). Seems balanced-ish if he got a kill at night, but had to take a risk to get an extra day-kill. I think this is the most likely scenario, but it's also just possible it was a bizarre coinidence. He still got 'caught' though, because as soon as he was in the spotlight he started lying and backing himself into a corner.

[Talitha]

Talitha, what do you think of my claim after seeing VitR's role?

I think that I was wrong about your claim.

I'm fairly confident that LoudmouthLee wasn't part of any scum group. I think he was called a mass murderer instead of a serial killer, because that more accurately describes Marcus Wesson. But still a loner.

For me, it's back to the drawing board. I had two top suspects yesterday, one is now dead and the other one is less suspicious. Not cleared because mith might have been sneaky enough to give 'Innocent Fresnoer' (or whatever) as a safe claim. Anyway, what it means is that I will have to go back over the thread to see what made me suspicious of Oman/IH in the first place, and whether I still feel that way.

Gaspar is basing his suspicions on who wasn't voting for MBL at the end of the day. This reasoning might be useful if MBL turns out to be mafia, but at this stage most of us just don't know whether that is the case.

What we do know, however, is that Thesp definitely was a member of the mafia. I'd like it if Thesp and his interactions with other players was looked at before it all becomes way ancient history. It's what i intend to look at (as well as IH) if I ever get the time to go over it properly.

[Talitha]

The only person who really clearly expressed "I'm voting LmL because his response to this whole issue is what's scummy" is DP. Plus points for him, in retrospect. If you look at the actual people who laid down votes on them, most of them gave little to no real reasoning,

Huh? What about when he got caught in a lie - did you miss that part?!? You are

definitely

on my condorcet today.

Also, in post 1128 when I added Lee to my condorcet I said that I was suspicious because of the lace thing but

it was his reactions that were cementing my suspicions

. I meant this is a general way. He wasn't acting innocent.

This is not a vote yet, just the beginnings of forming a condorcet:
Vote: Gaspar, Logisticus, IH

[Talitha]

Lee was trying to tell us that he uses the word "lace" commonly. He does not. He tried to present 'proof', that wasn't. These things didn't prove that he killed xyyzy, but they showed that he was not on the level.

[Talitha]

I kinda feel like you're missing the point, but I don't know how to clarify it. I have a headache.

[Talitha]

Because I wasn't suspicious of him purely for his claim, silly. Did you actually read the post I made about it?

I don't understand why people are saying that
Lee didn't kill Xyzzy = Lee was telling the truth in his statements regarding lace, etc
It's pretty bloody obvious he was backed into a corner and was trying to cover his arse, whether or not he was responsible for the kill.

I didn't read your post thoroughly Gaspar, will do so when I am able to concentrate. Perhaps you could read mine properly too at some point.

[Talitha]

- I was wrong with my earlier assertions that every player has a proper name (eg. John Bloggs or Sally Smith). The overnight death shows this.

- I

was

wrong about doubting his claim
- My intial reaction when the day broke was, 'OK, IH must certainly be town...' I obviously didn't post that as I do not like to announce a player as cleared.
- Someone else (can't remember who) mentioned safe claims
- Thought to myself.. 'Hmm, i bet LML was given Mercedes as a safe claim.. he was awfully willing to claim'
- Thought to myself.. 'Hmm, I wonder if the other scum have safe claims too'
- Thought to myself.. 'Hmm, I bet the mafia, if they are given safe claims, would be given lesser believable safe claims than 'Mercedes', as a balance thing'.
- Thought to myself.. 'Hmm, I guess IH isn't cleared after all.'

It's Saturday morning after a week from hell and I have not reviewed yet. That's why

I am not voting yet

. I am using my condorcet as a list of who I am suspicious of to remind myself,

as I have been doing for most of the game

.

[Talitha]

I can only do what I can do. It's just a game after all. I have high standards of myself whether I'm scum or town, and I wish I had all the answers right now, but i don't. The thread is too daunting to attack without a fresh mind.

[Talitha]

I think Glork hit on something significant when he mentioned you not doing this

I think *I* hit on something significant when I mentioned that me not doing this yet was because of my busy week, and recovering from said week. A small amount of patience please, m'dear.

[Talitha]

I started reading over.
In post 51 foolinc lists all the COMC characters that he thinks could be in the game. He says that

the one's that seem the most likely to be the members of the mafia are of course Baron Danglars, Count de Morcerf aka Fernand Mondego, Monsieur De Villefort, and Gaspard Caderousse since they are the four that send Edmond Dantès to Château d'If.

Seems like he could be right about that.
He also mentions

we also have a possible doctor in D'avrigny

- his own claimed role. Something about this just seems weird to me. Like he wanted to get the 'D'avrigny = doctor' idea into people's minds right from the start. Maybe because he

is

the doctor, but I'm not sure.

I found this page of COMC character descriptions. It says:

Doctor d'Avrigny: This is the doctor who attends to the many "sicknesses" in the Villefort household. He is adamant that the deaths are due to poison, yet he does not reveals his suspicions to the public at Villefort's request.

Kinda sounds like it's possible he could be in league with Villefort. Could anyone who is familiar with the story comment on this, please?

I tend to doubt we have a 5 player mafia group though, and that's one thing in foolinc's favour.

[Talitha]

Piss off. I'm too busy reading the freaking THREAD.

*this close to asking for replacement*

[Talitha]

(Sometimes I really wish I could edit my game posts...)

(The 'piss off' stands, though. But the part about asking for replacement was a dumb/unfair thing to say.)

Preview edit: I agree with Pooky.
Why aren't you voting, Pooky?

[Talitha]

I'm still reading the thread, in case anyone was wondering, but have a way to go yet. It's not easy - I have the attention span of a flea. Also, I'm not used to playing in games with 50+ pages!! But I feel like this is a worthwhile thing to do. Already it's been helpful - some of my feelings about players are changing, and some are staying the same but intensifying.

[Talitha]

Foolinc - What specifically makes you think that LML couldn't have made a day kill? I'm really curious because it's not obvious to me.

I am REALLY busy with work at the moment, it's the country gala this weekend. I am still hoping to finish reading the thread with time to spare before this day ends.

From what I've read so far, I'm actually pretty content with my condorcet as it is for the first two places (Gaspar, logisticus), but I'm still trying to decide whether IH deserves spot 3.

Pooky is the biggest question mark to me right now. I would love to trust him, but a nagging something is telling me not to. I think it started when LML fingered Pooky as scum... my first reaction was 'Durrr... of COURSE Pooky's scum. WHY didn't i suspect him earlier!' Then i realised that Lee was very likely lying and therefore there was probably no cop result on pooky. But ever since then the unexplained epiphany of that moment has gnawed at me.

Anyway he's not going to be at the top of my condorcet today, I need something more than Lee's lies and my weird reaction to go on.

Having seen a new vote count on previewing, I am going to try and get a good old fashioned bandwagon rolling.

Gaspar,

vote: logisticus

[Talitha]

Of the gala? No prob.

[Talitha]

Tally's bandwagon vote makes me very uneasy. there really isn't anything there with it.

I know, right? But the fact is we are on a race against the clock, and

someone

is going to be lynched in a matter of days. I am still building my case against my top suspects, but that doesn't change the fact that the town should be moving forward and gathering as much information as possible.

[Talitha]

This is hopefully one of the only 'too busy to post posts' that I will make in this game. How many days until deadline? Rhubarb.

[Talitha]

MY RL got insane and I haven't been sleeping. It's looking doubful I will get the whole thread summed up like I wanted to on this game day, but we'll see what happens once i get some rest.

One thing I noted so far but haven't commented publically yet is a growing suspicion of Tamuz.

[Talitha]

Gaspar, why do I get the feeling you would be voting for me regardless of whether I found the time to adequately explain myself. My current theory is that you are scum, and you know that IH is not scum, and you saw my waivering suspicions of IH as an opportunity to go after someone you know to be wrong and trip them up on their own reasoning.

So there ya have it. I just haven't been able to give this game the time I wanted to, but from the attention that I have been able to give, IH is looking better, you Gaspar are looking worse.

I am going to give Pooks the benefit of the doubt today, because he looks like he got my back.

The FOS on Zindaras I don't agree with and see it as the actions of a scum. It's quite gutsy to place a no lynch vote 24 hours before deadline, and draws attention to oneself. Zindaras's unsureness and placeholder vote looks like a town-ish action, even if it's not particularly helpful.

[Talitha]

vote:

Gaspar,

logisticus

, Sarcastro, MrBuddyLee, Tamuz

[Talitha]

I think foolinc might have been recruited by the mafia. That could explain the mentioning of all the characters early on (trying to signal the mafia?), and why he is still alive now. I have asked about this before and only got a snarky reply, but

would that fit with the doctor character in the book???

Someone must be familiar with the story, please speak up.

Foolinc, could you please list all of your night choices in one post?

[Talitha]

I also want you to explain again exactly why you use your secret word every game day. It seems odd considering that no-one else has thought that this is necessary, or if they have they certainly haven't drawn attention to it.

[Talitha]

Zindy: I would not say that a traitor role is "extremely rare". I have seen it in mith and DP games before. And can you please explain the "unbalanced" comment further? I don't understand how one role on its own could be considered unbalanced without knowing all the other roles in the game.

Having said that, the mafia roleblocker idea is also possible, and something I hadn't thought of.

[Talitha]

Y'all are going to make me read the damn book myself, arent you? I dont have the bloody time!

[Talitha]

I just wanted to add, for Gaspar's benefit, that I'm not ignoring his quasi-question.. just want to hear from another player before I address it.

[Talitha]

TSS: What a load of baloney.

Just for starters -

When I am talking about hypotheticals to illustrate a point, HOW does does that translate into me making assumptions???

I DON'T know that the scum have abilities. I know that the SCUM KNOW if they have abilities, and THAT was the POINT.

Furthermore I have been scum in many games and I challenge anyone to find a game where I slipped up and mentioned how many scum were in my group, or did anything REMOTELY like that.

Besides, I was under the impression we were assuming there were four scum. Am I wrong?

[Talitha]

It looks odd to me too when I read it now. I was exhausted and grouchy.

[Talitha]

I find TSS a lot scummier than MBL and would like to list them on my condorcet separately. OK?

However. Right now I'm thinking that if I were Gaspar and I were scum, I'd be going after one of my scum buddies..
a) because I (Gaspar) am under some suspicion myself and aren't all that likely to be followed, but...
b) if my scum buddy does get lynched I (Gaspar) want it to look like I was the driving force behind the wagon, and...
c) with any luck this condorcet lottery means that someone else (or no-one) will get lynched anyway even though my vote is safely on my scum buddy

Crazy theory? Time will tell. I am frustrated to bits that the only time i get to spend online lately i'm half-dead from exhaustion. it makes it hard to be very sure of myself and gather evidence from the thread etc. So, I apologise for this and wish I had more time. I'll try my best though.

Oh and welcome back MBL.

vote:

Gaspar,

Silent Lee

[Talitha]

I just thought some more about the foolinc business. I don't believe the mafia would keep him alive if he was a doc, even if they had a roleblocker.. why would they want to waste their role-block night after night if they could just kill him? He's an un-counterclaimed doctor, so there's no guarantee that he would get lynched anytime real soon.

Doctor d'Avrigny: This is the doctor who attends to the many "sicknesses" in the Villefort household. He is adamant that the deaths are due to poison, yet he does not reveals his suspicions to the public at Villefort's request.

Monsieur de Villefort: Monsieur de Villefort is the public prosecutor of Marseilles who was responsible for Dantes' incarceration. Much to Villefort's chagrin, Villefort's father was a known Bonapartist, thus his policy for Bonapartist conspirators was harsh. He sought to protect his own name. He succeeds in becoming the public prosecutor in Paris. His first marriage is one that is politically advantageous. He has one daughter by that marriage, Valentine. He also has a son by his second marriage. Monte Cristo ruins Villefort at Calvacanti's trial. Calvacanti reveals that his father, Villefort, buried him as a newborn baby. He was saved by Bertuccio who had been spying on Villefort waiting for an opportunity to seek revenge on him. Villefort had failed to seek out the man who had killed Bertuccio's brother. Villefort is thus ruined. His wife also poisons his daughter, son, and herself. He becomes crazy.

foolinc is the best lead right now. Moving SL down slightly, due to previously unconsidered foolinc factor. Adding other players I am most wary of.

unvote
vote: foolinc

, Gaspar, Sarcastro, Silent Lee, IH

[Talitha]

Answer to Gaspar's earlier question about why I think foolinc might have been recruited rather than scumbag all along.. just because of the little I have read online about the story (see my post above), the character seems to lend itself well to that kind of role.

[Talitha]

What did people think of foolinc's assertion that Dr D'Vrigny (spelling?) would be on the town's side? No opinions?

I always felt like CES was town and Satael seems town to me as well.

DP I was also pretty confident is town, but I want to revisit his posts and just check my assumption there.

But for the time being I won't be voting or condorceting either of those two.

Zindaras was a completely unattentive townie in a newbie game that finished recently

[Talitha]

Also, right now, I think Pooks is scum.

[Talitha]

Pooky: Do you think we are in lynch-wrong-lose? If so, what's your reasoning behind that?

[Talitha]

DP -

About foolinc - you say he gets the benefit because there is no counter claim of doc... but in a game such as this, why do we assume that our doc must be pro-town?
There is a kill missing on night 1, I think. But I think we'd be foolish to assume it was definitely because of a doctor.

[Talitha]

Here's another synopsis of the d'avrigy character from a different source (answers.com)

Doctor D'avrigny

Doctor d'Avrigny is physician to the Villefort family. He suspects that the mysterious deaths of several family members are murder, but he says nothing to the authorities.

[Talitha]

I simply just do not believe that foolinc is a vanilla pro-town doctor, with nothing more to the role. Sorry.

[Talitha]

Fair enough.

[Talitha]

I'm just looking at the numbers... I think it's time to really start thinking hard about how many scum we have vs how many players left alive.

We have 10 players alive. (I think it was) Foolinc (who) pointed out early in the game that a mafia group of four certain characters would make sense.. then one of those characters died and was revealed as a member of the mafia. So his theory is looking good. Also, a four person mafia group would seem about right for a game of this size. So, I think it would be best to assume that we have 3 allied scum alive. Then there is the possibility that the Dr D'Vrigny was recruited (instead of a kill on night 1?), or that he's always been a scumbag, but didn't know the identity of the other mafia members, or something like that.
So, best case 3, worst case 4.
If we are in the worst case, and we lynch wrong today, we go to night woth 9 players... a kill overnight seals the victory for the scum.
So, am I making myself clearer as to why I think foolinc is the best choice? If he's not scum, we get another day. If he is scum, we're in lynch-wrong-lose.

Pooky has been acting like it's lynch-wrong-lose (which really scares me) yet he's not voting for foolinc. This is one of the reasons I am getting surer about Pooks being scum.

I could be persuaded to vote for Pooks or Gaspar today if I can't get support on foolinc. I understand why foolinc inst a completely attactive option. It's logical to want to try and lynch one of the three, rather than someone who we know definitely isn't one of the three. I am just concerned about lynching wrong if foolinc is scum with the three.

[Talitha]

inst = isn't

[Talitha]

IH: The way Gaspar was going on about it, plus one post that I found of Oman's, made me feel you are likely town.

I am going to see if I can resume my re-read (I didn't get very far through, bah) tonight after dinner.

[Talitha]

And I don't like the way that Pooky's now saying that we're "exactly one day away" from lynch-wrong-lose, yet just a couple of posts earlier he said that foolinc might be scum. And I don't like how he didn't address the foolinc thing at all in his most recent post. In fact that post looks like a total side-step.

[Talitha]

It is slowly dawning on me that the thing that is peculiar to this game is that the scum don't even need to join bandwagons in order to get townies lynched! With the deadlines and condorcet lynches the most they have to do is manipulate the condorcet... and that probably hasn't even been necessary much. If it wasn't for the posting requirements this game would be every scum's dream.

So what this means is that we aint gonna catch the scum by looking at bandwagons. The foolinc bandwagon mentioned above is a red herring (FOS Silent Lee) because the scum don't really care which townie gets lynched. And make no mistake, one of us townies is very probably going to be lynched today. (I am pessimistic.)

There's no way I'm going to get my re-read finished by the end of this game day. (i have concentration and attention span issues.. send ritalin...) However right now I'm thinking the three are Pooky, Gaspar and Silent Lee... and if there's a 4th, it's foolinc.

I also rate Zindaras as an unknown quantity, not completely writing him off as a scum possibility. But the fact that Pooks and Gaspar wanna lynch him today? That gives him the benefit of the doubt with me

Sarcastro, who was Dani, who was MOS... if you read Day 1, it looks like the people I am now suspicious of (Pooky, Adele) would have been quite prepared to lynch MOS.. made me feel better (but not completely convinced) about Sarc being town.

Foolinc. I had been thinking to myself that if foolinc is town, then why are no scum trying to bandwagon him??? I have recently realised, they don't need to.

Pooky gets number 1 spot, because he's the only one of my top 3 who has another vote.

unvote
vote: Pooky

, Gaspar, Silent Lee, Foolinc, Sarcastro, Zindaras, IH, Setael, Dragon Phoenix

[Talitha]

Just so I'm not accused of making up stuff - apart from my usual reasons of gut instinct, these posts contain my reasons for why these 3 are scum from reading the early thread:

Gaspar (was PWS)
- Thesp's post 160 (Seems very aware of PWS.. finds him suspicious but is hazy about it.. like he knows PWS is scum, but doesnt really want to know).
- post 223 ("There's no info to gain from this..you know this" - Why would there be no info to be gained from pressuring someone?)
- post 263 (Sort of implies MOS is town.. doesn't seem to consider the MOS=scum possibility!)

Silent Lee
- post 256 (too much emphasis on meta-game, dice-rolls, etc for this far in. Seems reluctant to stick neck out and discuss players rather than game mechanisms.

Also

- check out Thesp on her condorcet. She hadn't mentioned Thesp at all. Thesp hadn't IMO done anything worthy of being there. Seems like he was put there just so that there was a scum buddy on the condorcet list.)

Pooky
- I'm mainly suspicious of Pooky's more recent contributions as mentioned in my previous few posts.
- post 202 seemed a bit over the top jumping on Skruffs for the "Yay Thesp"

[Talitha]

Seeing as it's likely we are not going to reach a lynch today I would like Pooky to use a condorcet list to vote with. Because he's not using one right now I consider him to be protecting Gaspar. He has mentioned that he thinks Gaspar is scum more than once, but he consistently won't do anything about trying to kill him.

[Talitha]

Naw - regardless of alignment it doesn't usually work out for me (or my side) getting into wall-of-text arguments with people who enjoy arguments. (Something I have learnt from Antrax and others.) Especially when my mafia time is severely limited. Plus I didn't really read them because I severely doubt your pro-town integrity in this game. I have already made up my mind on you and don't really care what you say you think of me.

But, so that I'm not being a complete jerk... if you'd like to summarise your main points into a couple of sentences I may have time to address them this game day.

[Talitha]

PS: Nice side-step of the Pooky issue. Showed finesse. I almost didn't notice.

[Talitha]

You think Thesp wouldn't ass-kiss a scumbuddy? Why? I think he would be trying not to treat his scumbuddies any different to how he treats the townies. Did you see the post where he kissed my ass too? I don't really see the relevance I guess.

The second part is a list of my interactions with Thesp, which I am also struggling to see the relevance of. "Double-team gogogo"? You could say that about any two players who agreed on anything during this game.

This post feels inadequate (and is why i dont wanna get into an argument. I dont like feeling inadequate) but now me and the kids are late for school.

[Talitha]

Now Glork there's two different things there. I didn't say I believe Thesp treats townies and scumbuddies in the same way. He is a good player so it would be close, but I would expect subtle differences (keyword = subtle). Buddying-up is not subtle and I would expect a good player to only do this based on what is written in the thread, rather than buddying differently with town than with fellow scum. JMO.

Why have two people now said that Pooky is pro-town like it's a fact? I feel like I'm missing something.

[Talitha]

Damn.. I'm starting to think DP is right about Sarcastro. Sarcastro instead of Silent Lee.

[Talitha]

I don't know how to / whether to try and change my vote. I'm scared that it's me and Pooky in a tie right now. I don't think Zindy is going to get lynched by the condorcet method. The last condorcet info Mr Grey posted showed a tie between PookyTheMagicalBear, Sarcastro, Silent Lee/the silent speaker, and Talitha.

If it's me, goodnight and so long everyone. I hope foolinc is not evil and the town gets to fight for one more day.

[Talitha]

Last positive action:

unvote
vote: Pooky

, Gaspar, [Silent Lee, Foolinc, Sarcastro], Zindaras, IH, Setael, Dragon Phoenix, No lynch, Talitha

[Talitha]

Condorcet Method Results
There has been a tie. The winners are: Gaspar, PookyTheMagicalBear, Silent Lee/the silent speaker, and Talitha.

[Talitha]

There's approx 1.5 hours until deadline, I think. Let's at least get a lynch.

[Talitha]

*checks into game with tail between legs*
Sorry pooks

I do believe Sarcastro, a scum wouldn't have felt the need to throw in the arrogant comment, but agree with IH about proceeding cautiously at this stage of game.

[Talitha]

Gaspar killed Dantes who was posing as Mr Grey? *scratches head*
Anyway, confusion aside, I don't buy the claim. I don't buy a neutral in this game. Gaspar hasn't been playing like someone who must only survive the game to win.
Looking back further, I am quite sure PWS got himself replaced in fairness to his team-mates. A neutral would not have felt the pressure like that.
Sarc bolts into today looking like a cop with information. "Just to let everyone know, Gaspar and Zindaras are scumbuddies" "I guarantee it", he says. Then he says he thinks he might be daykilled. He votes Zindy. This is all well and good, but then he comes back and says he's NOT a cop, but the last 24 hours of the game day clarified things. And the clarifying information that he gives, the explanation of what has given him SUCH certainty... here it is: "Gaspar's vote for Zindaras looked very much like a weak bus attempt, and Zindy is obvscum. "

Needless to say, I am very dubious of Sarc as well. Why would a townie who isn't some kind of cop bust out an early vote like that in lynch-wrong-lose? And why on earth would they try and appear like a cop? Sarc is looking like a scum who wanted to try a cop gambit but got cold feet when it became obvious the bandwagon wasn't going to go full speed ahead.

I'm not saying that Zindy is definitely town either.

It looks to me like the scum spent last night preparing their roleclaims for the inevitable mass claim. Shall we mass claim for the hell of it? It could be now or never.

He's still in the night scenes, so I assume he lives.

vote: Mr Grey

[Talitha]

I have to go.. I am not going to be around to unvote if necessary.. don't wanna risk it.
I will try again later when i can hang around

unvote: Mr Grey

[Talitha]

Gaspar - If you had checked Cubs when he was still alive, do you think that would have also done the job of "killing Dantes"? Why has no Dantes body shown up? Why did your role want to kill Dantes. What's the flavour? Were you the only one who could kill Dantes? Does any of this explain why Cubs showed up as someone else on death? After checking your links, and going back over your Grey fascination that did end abruptly, I am almost starting to believe you

Sarc - The thing is, in a theme game you can't claim cop unless you have an appropriate character claim to go along with it. That is a possible reason for a soft-claim. If people doubted you, you could back down rather than have to claim a character. If you're town it seemed a very odd move. Maybe I am just unfamiliar with your playstyle though.

I am horribly out of my depth in this game. Never before in my mafia career have I had so little time to spare, and this game is much longer (page-wise) than any other I've been in. My complete cluelessness should be evidence enough that I am town

DP - What

exactly

have I done today to so rapidly move up in scumminess?

Gaspar - Who are the scum here, in your neutral opinion?

[Talitha]

Did anyone else think that it was interesting the way Sarcastro role-claimed seemingly out of nowhere? It was kinda like... "I believe Gaspar, oh and by the way here's my role claim.. not that you asked for it, or anything, but I'm Dantes too."

[Talitha]

My current theory is that there is/was only one Dantes. Cubs started off being Dantes, but when Cubs died, Dantes needed a new host. At some point Grey became Dantes, but was killed when Gaspar checked him.

Gaspar, does your role PM give any clue about the number of Dantes in the game?

I am still struggling with the seeming coincidence of Tamuz voting for Mr Grey

right before

Mr Grey starts being listed on the condorcet. Why, out of the blue did Tamuz suddenly include Grey on his condorcet? If that hadn't happened, we probably would never have suspected Grey. He was not included on the player list in the vote count immediately before Tamuz voted. I just can't get my head around this.

[Talitha]

The last point I am trying to make there (in my previous post) is that if Mr Grey was already a live

player

before Tamuz voted for him, he should have been listed in the mod's vote count condorcet lists even before the Tamuz vote due to this rule on the first page:

Vote: G, K, L, No Lynch, P

The example list expresses a preference to lynch G first, then K if G is not an option, then L, then no one, then P (

and then anyone else that is alive

, with equal preference).

(Underlining is mine for emphasis)

It could be a mod oversight I guess, I am just very confused.

[Talitha]

If I had to make a Condorcet right now, it'd look about like this:
Zindaras, DP, SiLee, Sarc, Tally, [IH, Setael], No Lynch, Gaspar

Isn't it in your best interest to lynch a townie today, though? The game would finish and you would win, right?

[Talitha]

I am wondering whether the poisoner should claim. Assuming that xyzzy's death was caused by someone who is still alive, should that person claim now? They would fill in an extra piece of the puzzle for the town today and give us another person (along with Gaspar, if we believe him, and I think I do) who we know is not one of the (likely) 3 allied scum.

And right now, I can't see how the poisoner could be anti-town. I think they are town (or maybe neutral, but srsly I've never played in a game with a neutral before that I can remember.. this is why I do not expect to find them.)

[Talitha]

Check in with 25+ words, IH!

[Talitha]

Of course that part didn't look like a cop claim. It was the

Gaspar and Zindaras are scum. I guarantee it. BTW I'll probably get day-killed.

THAT looked like a cop claim. Am I wrong?

[Talitha]

What are your opinions on Silent Lee and Sarcastro, Satael? What have they done to make you trust them more than you trust me, DP, IH or Zindaras?

[Talitha]

I approve of Sarcastro taking charge of the game. A couple questions. We don't lose automatically if a townie gets daykilled, right? WE still get a lynch? I'm pretty sure this is correct, so I am very much in favour of a daykill today. Sarc, why does number 34 have a daykill, flavourwise? I googled quickly and it was not apparent to me.

I actually think in this game it's not going to make a huge difference what order we claim in. I think in the interests of time we should just get on with it, because we're up against the clock abd there's no way to know when we'll get a replacement for Zindy. After a mass claim we might be confident enough to kill him even without a replacement or a claim. I haven't been looking forward to the massclaim, but I don't mind going first as I would have to claim eventually anyway. So, just say the word.

[Talitha]

Nice idea for ending the day.

If i thought that Zindaras might be allowed back into the game, I could see the merit in waiting a couple of days. I don't think that's how it works though. Deadline is Dec. 3, 22:30 GMT so I will get the ball rolling.

I am Ickey Woods. No abilities. I did try and leave a small hint at my role in post 908 when Pooky kept talking about football.

Next?

[Talitha]

Let's get a roll on with the claims so we can lynch goofball. (Sorry Goofball... you are a darling for replacing.)

I am starting to feel more confident that town can win this game.

[Talitha]

IH - Innocent Fresnoite (townie)
Gaspar - Auguste Maquet (Neutral, kill Dantes, Survivor)
Sarcastro - Number 34 (?)
Talitha - Ickey Woods (townie)
Satael - Leon S. Peters (townie?)
Zindy Goofball - Baptistin (cop-ish)
Silent Lee - Captain Leclère (commuter-ish)
DP - Sinbad the Sailor (commuter-ish)

From where I'm sitting, the three scum are most likely Goofball, Silent Lee, and Satael. The last one is a surprise to me.. I have had CES/Satael marked as town pretty much the whole game. But looking back, I can see her as instrumental in saving scum buddy Zindaras yesterday. Further evidence against her is that all the Fresno characters in this game so far have been on the list on the Notable Residents list on the Fresno wikipedia page that mith linked to on page 1. Not completely damning by itself, but pretty suspicious.

So yeah, those are the three I want dead.. And I want DG and SL dead today. I will wait for consensus before voting.
I will wait for

[Talitha]

I don't really know. I feel like it might be a special game mechanic.. stuff going on that we don't understand yet. Like Cubs thinking he was the Count.

Or, it could be something to do with the secret words. Use your word, get a gift from the mod?

Or it could be a scum who doesn't want to admit to having anything to do with the poisonings.

I think it's noteworthy that only one person (xyzzy) has died this way. Tamuz has the same method of death but I'm pretty sure it was his partner dying that was the trigger for that death.

I really think Sarcastro should enlighten us some more as to the explanation for his windfall.

[Talitha]

Quick check in on my munch break.

Gaspar - Don't you think the person who claimed the similar role second is a lot more likely to be telling the truth?

Se, Si, So, Sum.
Se and Si are the remaining scum!

It's Se and Si!

Does Goofball's vote still count now she dead?

vote: Silent Lee

[Talitha]

Have you actually said WHY you didn't like my reaction? I can't really respond to such a wishy-washy statement.

And I quite like DP's list as above as a lynching order from here, but would not complain if i got bumped down a spot.

[Talitha]

I just thought of something... the gift giver said no-one had accepted his offer yet? So who the heck killed xyzzy then? Seems like there's TWO roles missing, unless LML killed xyzzy after all... I am confused.

[Talitha]

All I can say about post 1787 is that I had a strong preconceived idea that Gaspar was scum. I had thought so for quite some time... so upon hearing his claim, my first reaction was disbelief. IIRC, you (DP) have had Gaspar quite a long way down your scum list for most of the game, so you would have been much more open-minded when reading his claim. I backtracked on Gaspar when I saw that his claim did in fact fit with all the pieces of evidence in-thread. Let's just say you are not the only one here with a wonky scumdar I'm just really hoping I'm not wrong about you!!

[Talitha]

There's not really a lot to your argument, with all due respect You should be the one explaining why your role isn't on the link that the mod gave us! Even Marcus Wesson is on there! Yet you claim a Fresno person who is not on there.

I applaud your valiance though; it's fun when a scum goes down fighting.

If it makes you feel better, yes if I were scum I would have done my homework and likely claimed a role from that page. My roleclaim does not clear me.

[Talitha]

just logged in to:

1) not lynch DP
2) say that it's Very Important that we do lynch SOMEONE today
3) post 25 words

anyone have any idea what the condorcet is doing right now?

[Talitha]

Gaspar not hammering DP does make me a little nervous, I have to admit. I also fully expected IH to come in and hammer Silent Lee. That is making me nervous too.


Preview edit: Oh, ha! I forgort Sarc hadn't voted yet.
I am relieved. But still nervous.

[Talitha]

Barry McGuire? FOS: Sarcastro

My current condorcet would consist of Setael [...big gap here...], IH [...big gap here...], everyone else.

Also, the gift giver lives. More about that later.

[Talitha]

I would like a full and honest role claim from Setael also.

[Talitha]

I think you misunderstand my nervousness Gaspar...

And I am waiting to hear Set's full claim before I decide whether to accept the gift...

[Talitha]

(sorry for my brevity...at work.. shouldn't be scumming
...back in several hours)

[Talitha]

I also would like an answer to that.

[Talitha]

And Seteal, if you are town, now is the time for complete disclosure.. no more partial-truths.

[Talitha]

If there is no chance they will die, why did CES appear to believe that he was responsible for xyzzy's death? He was adamant that the 'lace' accusations against LML were untrue. I don't have time to find link to that right now, but it is clear in my memory and it is the main reason that I believed CES to be town.

What do people think, should I accept this gift from Seteal? I have another day or so to decide.

[Talitha]

If you google for "Leon S Peters" and "philanthropist" or "donation" you get hits detailing things he has donated money to in Fresno. Also his foundation gives out scholarships. To me, Leon S Peters definitely fits with a gift giving role.

[Talitha]

I just accepted the gift.

[Talitha]

Um. That was unexpected. I also now have a daykill. That was slightly unexpected too.

I want to kill someone pretty soon.. and hopefully hit scum. If not, it will at least bring it back to 2 to lynch. If Seteal was scum, well, I don't know how we're supposed to kill her now. But her role seems pretty unscummy - I am willing to believe she could be town. Which presents a dilemma, because everyone else looked to be town (or neutral) for one reason or another.

DP and Silent Lee counter claiming each other.. is that the best play for two scum? I don't believe so...

If Gaspar is scum, he made up a pretty complicated roleclaim, and also managed to plant evidence for his claim in the thread. He also claimed something that likely would have been an attractive lynch option earlier in the game.

IH knew that there were actual townie roles that were variations of Innocent Fres-.. maybe because he is one, or maybe because the mod told him.

So my condorcet is : IH, [Gaspar, DP]

Thoughts?

[Talitha]

So I'm the last scum? Or Seteal? C'mon Gas, make your case. If it's Seteal, I think the game would be lost unless we no-kill and no lynch today AND she reappears tomorrow.

[Talitha]

I would vote Seteal to test whether we can vote for her, but I really don't see how she can be the last scum, so don't see the point.

[Talitha]

Also - IH, I am going to break you in half within 24 RL hours unless you give me reason not to.

[Talitha]

Quadruple post.

I would like to draw people's attention to Oman's post #53 in this game where he says

Also Foolinc, if you check out the first page I think we have a number of vanillia townies.

Up until now I have been using this post as evidence of IH's innocence. At first glance it looks like it corroborates his claim. But as I think about it more closely I have to ask the questions:

1. Where on the first page does it indicate that we have "a number of vanilla townies"? It says it is a sample PM, not that there are a number of vanilla townies. I, as Ickey Woods, assumed that the sample PM was just an example of the setting out of the PM, and that all players actually had a proper name. But, if I had a variation of "Innocent Fres-" as a role name I guess I

might

have made a similar assumption to what IH did. So that doesn't really prove anything either way.

2. Would a real vanilla townie have announced this at this point? What was his motivation?

3. Is it really that unlikely that the mod would have included the example role PM in the scum's role PMs and said something like "Townies might not have this exact spelling" or "There may be Innocent Fresnoites, Fresninos or Fresnians in this game". I actually find this very plausable.

[Talitha]

Gaspar - I disagree that DGB or SL would have used that roleclaim. There was no advantage to be gained for them to claim Innocent Fresn--- at the point when we did mass claim. I do agree that IH was looking pretty innocent with his early claim, but it did not clear him and now we're getting to the point that we are running out of people who could be scum. Everyone has points in their favour as to why we don't think it's them, but the fact remains, it's one of us. If we're lynching purely on behaviour and not on claim, IH would be the runaway winner by now, no?

I propose that I kill IH, then if the game isn't over DP and I will most likely vote for each other and you'll be the decider. Quite ironic that someone who is going to win

anyway

would be trusted with the deciding vote

But I can't see you being scum and DP being town.. you could so easily have hammered him just like you promised to do and still have been acting in keeping with your claim.

So from where I'm sitting, if it's not IH, it's DP... And out of the two of them, I have to pick IH as much more likely scum.

So, I am going to kill IH (after waiting for your re-read) to make sure he dies today. If IH is not scum then DP deserves to win and I will present myself meekly for the inevitable lynching.

[Talitha]

Alright. Seeing as you want to put the effort in, and are doing a good job, I'll wait. Your sum-up of IH looks very good. I just don't have the time to do an analysis like you have right now. I am leaving town for the night in a couple of hours, and when I get back it's back to work.

You say not to use process of elimination, but from where I am sitting the evidence via process of elimination is so strong that it's all I need.

I can understand why you rate me as possible scum, but can't really understand why DP is higher on your list than IH. Maybe it's just me but I have felt he is town all game and nothing in 81 pages has made me pause to doubt that assumption. On the other hand, I am satisfied that IH *could* be scum. The pieces can be made to fit that theory. If I have time to do some analysis it will be on DP, and try and find/present the evidence that he is town. Because, elimination is how I play end-games... I can't help it!

[Talitha]

I wanted to make the kill early enough in the day so that if I'm wrong then we still have enough time to adequately argue the lynch. So yeah, I'll do the kill in my next post. Any last words from IH or on his behalf?

[Talitha]

Daykill: IH

[Talitha]

What makes you think Seteal is still part of the game?

[Talitha]

It's 2 votes to lynch, we can't vote for Seteal. But "irked"? Sheesh. Just how long did you want me to wait? We needed plenty of time post-day-kill if this situation eventuated.

Well I have to think it's DP now... Can't see Gaspar being scum. Will have to try and find the time to look for evidence before deadline.

[Talitha]

Dammit, I really need to re-look at my assumptions about Gaspar too. Why did IH have to be town? Why was he playing like that?

[Talitha]

I agree, but it was coming from the person I thought was scum and to me it looked like a stalling tactic. I was concerned about the time being wasted too if I were wrong. Just don't blame me when we were ALL guilty of not testing for it in good time, that's all I'm saying. [/whine]

[Talitha]

What about just including her in the condorcet?

Vote: DP, Seteal

[Talitha]

I don't think Set is scum, btw. It's one of you two.

Gotta go to work..

[Talitha]

I agree with what Gaspar said that we have to play as if she's not coming back. It would be lunacy to no-lynch today, IMO. Didn't Setael say that CES chose not to give a gift some nights? I am pretty sure she could have chosen not to give the gifts to Sarc and myself. The only explanation that fits with her being scum is that she was hoping her night action might kill.

Just skimming over the last few pages, I am pretty sure I'll vote for DP today.
The first thing that stood out as I skimmed was when I asked Gaspar who he thought were the three remaining scum. He listed Zindaras, DP and Silent Lee. Well, he was right about the other two...

At that point where the three scum were alive I believe the scum were only 1 mislynch away from victory.

Note to self

: look at the voting that day a little closer, when I'm not tired.

The other noteworthy thing for me was DP's lack of response or OMGUS when Gaspar said DP was scum. That seems a little odd, in hindsight.

With the claims, Gaspar's does seem too complex to be made up. You would have to be very confident and organised ahead of time to make up a claim like that.. and the Mr Grey condorcet evidence was very fortuitous. It's hard enough being scum without concocting and acting out a fictitious role perfectly...
DP's claim is one easily made as scum and he had the luxury of claiming last too. In his favour though is what Sarcastro said in post 1901 about the ability reminding Sarc of his own. But that's kind of weak, upon reflection. I was worried that if DP is scum it means that Sinbad wasn't in the game, yet most of the other Dantes personas were... but then I realised one of the dead players in this game were very likely told

they

were Sinbad.

[Talitha]

No, it's just a hunch (generated because I now believe DP to be lying). Sinbad was an alias of Dantes (according to Wikipedia) so I thought he would likely be in the game. But then I realised that if he was in the game, s/he would likely have shown up as something else on death. Like Sarcastro (Number 34 = Barry McGuire). Likely + likely = still quite likely

I wonder whether there are parallels between the Fresno character and the Monte Cristo character. How does Kirk Kekorkian resemble the COMC; how does Barrry McGuire parallel No 34? Or maybe it is just random.. with no links between the two characters.

[Talitha]

Hi. I have not had the time to look into the links between characters that I speculated about in my post above. I have a very busy next 3-ish days but I'll see what I can do.

I also need to look over DP's posts without my rose-coloured glasses on and see if I can convince Gaspar to lynch him and not me. Just out of curiousity, is Primate still active?

[Talitha]

I don't think Gaspar or Setael are scum, that just leaves my pal DP. I just got home from the end of year concert. It has been a lot of work and I am absolutely shattered.

DP - out of curiousity, can you explain why you were certain it was safe to vote for Setael with only 2 votes required to lynch?

[Talitha]

curiousity? excuse my spelling

[Talitha]

I've just been looking over the Pooky vs Zindy lynch where poor old Pooky got the chop... there isn't much there to distinguish me and DP, as we both said or implied that we thought Zindy was not scum, and we were both voting for Pooky. But I think it's apparent that I at least believed Pooky was scum, voted early and gave reasons... even if my reasons were compelling only to me at the time! Whereas DP only voted Pooky very late in the day to "get a lynch" saying that he prefered a Pooky lynch over a Zindy lynch.

OK I know it's not much, but I had to try.

Gaspar pushed for the Zindy lynch pretty hard... never waivered... I am happy that if Gaspar is scum he has played amazingly and certainly well enough to earn the victory. I am also happy to give him the honour of the final hammer if he chooses to vote DP.

vote: DP

[Talitha]

Dragon Phoenix (Sinbad the Sailor, Innocent), Gaspar (Auguste Maquet, Author), and Talitha (Ickey Woods, Innocent) are dead.

PookyTheMagicalBear wins!

I like this ending the best.

[Talitha]

IH, that comment probably came across harsher than I intended. It was mostly frustration because you seemed so scummy to me and then you turned out to be town.

And regarding the elimination approach - I have always felt that I can get a better read on someone being protown rather than trying to figure out if they're scum. Didn't work out in this game though, because I trusted other pieces of info more than I trusted my reads.

Sorry I havent had much to say about this game yet.. I am very tired these last few days... feel like a zombie.

[Talitha]

Now that I have had time to catch my breath and consider my post-game thoughts and feelings, I would like to make my comment on this game.

BAH!

That's about it really. Good play you rotters (you know who you both are). DP, I think we share each others pain. Thanks mithy for a neat game. Merry Christmas everyone, see you in the next California game...