Prophecy Mafia - Over

[Mert]

Hi, my name is Mert and I am your local friendly replacement hero.

Before I start reading up etc, a quick ask for clarification - the title says there is a deadline, yet I can't find one of JDodge's posts saying when the deadline is for - can someone tell me or, moreover, can I ask the mod to consider moving it back while myself and Xyzzy's replacement get up to speed?

More from me shortly

[Mert]

Hey guys, it was my birthday on Saturday and I didn't end up getting the time to go all through this game yet like I'd hoped. However, I have a dental appointment tomorrow morning so I doubt they'll expect too much of me at work, so I'll post all my notes once I've finished reading from my desk, heh.

This is the part where you wish me a happy birthday

[Mert]

EBWOP: Brownie points to Oman for noticing it was my birthday already

[Mert]

Initial analysis of the first six pages. More to follow shortly.

Oh wait, I lied

Vote: xyzzy

cus he's just gonna mad lurk all game anyway.

Weird first post. This looks like it could be saying "Xyzzy never picked up his night-talk PMs, so I'm mad", though since this is the first post of the game I'm taking it completely in a vacuum. I certainly pick up a hint of something, but I'll park it for now and see if anything else comes up that indicates similar.

post.

Started a shitty bandwagon already?

I realise this post is in jest to a degree, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with a day one bandwagon or two to get the game going.

vote lowell

, because he will probably lurk all game anyway.

Hmm, this thing again. I'll keep my eyes on CKD's relationship with Lowell for the same reasons as UA and possible connections to Xyzzy that I cited above for the rest of this readthrough.


<Skipping Pokefag section>

I will have to be off until oct 5th because of an important exam. this is the onl chance I have of logging on the com, so sorry.

Anyway,

random vote: lazy

Hope the exam went okay. Less thrilled about dropping the V-bomb just before you know you'll be away for three days though.


<Blah blah Pokemon, puntuated with the occasional funny post from BMQ>

Besides the Dog from Duck Hunt is the scummiest avatar one could have.

I concur!

Guys. Sir T has only posted once. Maybe he doesn't want to play. And it would be a shame if he were replaced. Lets kill him

Hmmm, ping number two for UA here. Again, post appears to be in jest, but that doesn't mean it can't be scummy.

mFoS: UA

.

I know some of them always bandwagon (shitty excuse anyway), but aren't you having the feeling that too many people are comfortably hopping in?

I would say that bandwagonning early on and looking for reactions is one of, if not the most effective way of getting the game moving and finding scum early on. Sucks that you're the victim of a wagon maybe, but if I had been playing I would have "comfortably hopped on" too - not only to get your reaction, but to get the reaction of those on or off the wagon also. Reactions are the lifeblood of scumhunting, in my opinion. Doing stuff to get them helps towns win.

Trying to divert attention off your scumbuddy's wagon, eh?

:goodposting:

I agree that the typical random vote and mini-bandwagon on someone shouldn't get up to 7/8 votes, but I don't think scum would be dumb enough as to go that high.

No, that's

perfect

because it means that if there were to be a quicklynch then three or four scum all have to out themselves at once. Instawin! Again, I'm a big fan of bandwagonning and I see far less danger in putting someone at Lynch - [approximate number of scum] early than some do. Shrug.

UA, before you call me to be "killed" for lurking, point out two posts with genuine content from yourself. If I am lurking, you are lurking in plain sight, which is even worse.

:goodposting:

Unvote, Vote: Kanaga

, since he's the scummiest player so far and random voting is over.

Now, while I don't mind CKD's assessment of Kanaga (in fact at this point I think CKD's probably protown), I don't like this post. It seems to use the first serious argument in the game as adequate enough proof to vote. As I've made clear, I have nothing against a good bandwagon, but this seems less like searching for more information and more like blatant opportunism. If you were wagonning for information (ie. the good reason to do so) then you'd either just jump on and wait for reactions or ask more probing questions in your vote post. You did neither.

More pressure on Kanaga seems like a good idea to me, folks.

Again. You're saying more pressure is the way to go, but you're not putting any on yourself by asking difficult questions or trying to draw a response. What you

are

doing is trying to get others to vote and ask those kinds of questions and essentially do the dirty work for you. You can say you were on this big protown wagon without having to actually try to look for scum.

FoS: Tarhalindur

.

Stark's vote that follows isn't bad because it isn't embedded in some kind of fluff post about how it's the best thing for other people to do. Two ways to apply pressure: vote and wait for reactions or ask some difficult questions. You did neither. Stark did one.

Foolinc's is okay, but not great. I'm not in love with the "tend to agree" stuff with nothing else.

Oman says it's for blatant bandwagonning purposes, as does Flameaxe. I don't mind this. It's the kind of faux justification in Foolinc and especially Tarhalindur's posts that gets me concerned.

Also, (this is just an idea I'm rolling off here...don't get all pissy at me for it...) due to the fact that this is an open setup, massclaiming MIGHT be an option to move day 1. I think that this should be considered for an idea to find teh scumz.

Horrible idea. I'm often a fan of massclaiming but very rarely this early. It's only worth it when there is a significant strategic advantage to doing so. I just don't see how there can possibly be one at this point in the game.

I'm intentionally lurking. Discuss.

Um, what the...?

Anyway, i support mass townie role claim as we know the number of townies.

Ugh. I didn't mind you until this post. Surely you realise that if all the townies claim townie then the scum know which people are not townies? The only way power roles could avoid being outed is to lie and also claim townie and that gets us into a world of trouble.

For what it's worth, Lazy, I'd be willing to wager that Kakeng was just being stupid and not thinking that a mass townie claim would leave our power roles wide open. I was about to agree with him until I thought about it.

So willing to wager that you'd answer on his behalf? Right. I'll note that but expect me to make a much bigger deal out if it if you do that again.

[Mert]

Page 7-12. Final part coming soon!

Kanaga, Kakeng, and Flameaxe all look bad right now - Kanaga for deflection, Kakeng and Flameaxe for pushing a mass claim (Kanaga more so than Flameaxe).

Or: "here are some widely-held opinions passed off as my own contribution to the game." Hmmm, not a great post, Tar.


<Blah blah ad hom blah. Not interested in who of you has the biggest ePenis, frankkly, so I'm going to skip this part>

I'm here. Just chillin'.

Haven't been terribly impressed with any of the cases so far.

Carry on.

Nonsense post. You can't just sit and allow others to do all the Day One info gathering (when it is probably most vital to get as much information as possible) and then say you haven't posted because nobody's case has impressed you yet. You can make cases by getting stuck in and asking some questions / applying some pressure. Not a good post.

=posting to make it look like I am contributing.

not impressed with a case?..make one

Aha! Great minds think alike, clearly. Still thinking CKD is still probably protown at this point in my readthrough.

Please speak up (not that i contributed much)

"You just did something scummy which I am also guilty of, yet I won't let this blind me to a golden opportunity to look like I'm contributing by voting".

This kind of post = scumtell.

(Scum tend to care that they are lurking more than town does.)

Not sure I understand the bit in parenthesis. His post seems to imply he

doesn't

care that he is lurking, yet you call his post a scumtell on the basis that scum would care more about the fact that they're lurking. Weird.

Lowell lurking is no big tell.

That's probably true.

Isn't it 100% clear that Lowell IS lurking?

You still seem to be voting for people on little bits of information and for fairly arbitrary reasons, which you should probably be over by this point in the game. I don't like your flip-floppiness so far.

Being uncomfortable with being voted = MASSIVE SCUMTELL

This is the second post where you've done this and it's a fairly horrible argument for voting for somebody. What you're effectively saying is "here is a reason why you should all vote and that reason is written in tablets of stone as a well-known scumtell" which immediately makes less experienced players worried that thinking it was nothing makes them bad or that they may have missed something which everyone finds obvious. What's ridiculous is that it's not a scumtell in my book and certainly wasn't in that context. It looks like you're trying to gather momentum for something which really shouldn't have any.

FoS: Tarhalindur

.

I have my reasons for blatant bandwagoning.

It's not bandwagonning, it's trying to incite others to bandwagon

after

your initial vote. Important difference.

Being uncomfortable with being voted is a very large scumtell in my books, and bubka's last two posts give me the very strong impression that he's uncomfortable with being voted.

Savvy?

Not savvy. Totally ludicrous. You're still trying to encourage others that they're somehow stupid for not agreeing with something you portray as a textbook scumtell. It isn't. I'm going to upgrade my FoS to a

HoS: Tarhalindur

at this point.


I'm not going to quote it here because it's so long, but MoS' [294] sums up my feelings on UA wonderfully, while adding some stuff I hadn't noticed. Love this post. Other than the overuse of the phrase "vis-a-vis", which I can take or leave

That post made my day and I'm not going to feel sorry about this:

That said, I'm far less of a fan of people who just see a big post and decide to vote based on it without either expanding on it or saying which parts the do or don't agree with.

[Mert]

WHat if his claim is false and everyone chooses to believe him instead.. This kind of sceanrio wont help us at all imo.

Um, I'm fairly sure that he'd eventually be counter-claimed if he chose to fake claim a power role. If he claims townie he'll probably still be lynched today.

Surely if he fake claimed a power role then at least one person will

definitely

know it's false and, if it is a provable ability, they may not even have to out themselves for him to be caught having lied about it. If it's not a confirmable ability then a counter-claim tomorrow or Day Three or something will be enough to provide the final nail.

I think you're seeing a lot of danger where there is very little, if I'm honest.

[Mert]

Well what could he claim? Let's go through them.

If he claims townie then he'll probably still be lynched today. What is the town losing by killing off an inactive townie who looks relatively scummy? Probably not a lot. He'd have to be super convincing to survive with a townie claim at this point and with a deadline.

He could claim Cop. False Cop claims are fairly easy to detect after a day or two because if he's fake then we'd want to know what his results are and why he has not yet been killed. Given we have a Jailkeeper rather than a standard Doc, there are many opportunities to catch him out later. If he claimed Cop, I would let him live and re-evaluate tomorrow. Claimed Cops rarely make it to endgame, so this won't be game breaking.

Claiming Jailkeeper is tougher on the town, but is still a provable role in a lot of ways, especially with the roleblocking element to it.

Claiming Vig is blatantly provable and if he fake claimed Vig then he'd basically be making sure the scum kills are directed by the town until he gets lynched.

If he claims Miller then meh, he dies. Probably the same for Survivor.

The only other thing he could claim is Super Backup. While it might buy him a little more time than some of the others, he'll eventually fall into one of the provable power role categories above, leading to the same eventual pitfalls.

So, in short, there are about a bazillion ways to discern if a claim is truthful or not - some of them will come today, some in later days but all give him the opportunity to either prove it or be lynched for lying about it.

I again say that I think you're seeing more danger here than there really is.

[Mert]

Great minds, DoS, great minds

[Mert]

Third and final "catching up" post of death:

So apparently MoS noticed I didn't self-vote, decided to do that "View only UA's posts" thing, then commented on why every single one of them was scummy without even reading them in context. So my defense of the whole post will be two lines.

1) I'm not going to give people free Prophecy points

2) Context

Also, Lazy is scum. Also, I can't remember if I'm even voting him or not. So

Unvote Vote: Lazy

You can consider it a confirm vote too, if you swing that way

Weak defense followed by obvious deflection.

This defense is a pure case of

non sequitur

, once again showing that UltimaAvalon can only use fallacious "reasoning", so to speak.

Emphatically this.

Is this in response to me? I didn't even say anything about UltimaAvalon's "reason", so to speak, for voting Lazy. I was speaking purely of his actions vis-a-vis defense of himself, per se.

Gah, he said vis-a-vis again!

That looks like a scum excuse to me.

You said before that you had a reason for playing like this. I really think you need to share that soon because to us lay people it just looks like bad play.

DoS: Define "Complain" for me, please, so I may inform you why you're retarded

There's playing aggressively and then there's using blatantly silly or insulting posts to deflect attention from the fact that you don't really have an answer. I fear this is the latter.

@MoS: Well, if you're just going to sit there, speaking latin, MSU, and let your scumbuddy DoS do your attacking for you, I'll sit here here and ignore you, k?

Same again. You can't just shout at somebody until they stop suspecting you if you give them no other reason to stop. It looks like that's what you're doing here though.

You know that not sharing information is generally not a townie thing to do, right?

Not necessarily. Sometimes it is useful to hold your thoughts back temporarily if you feel the reactions to you doing so will be of more value to the town. I agree with you in the main, however.

need... more... pressure applicaiton...

vote: bubka

So that's where the Bubka wagon began. Worth noting for later.

Why hasn't bubka been lynched yet?

Because you're not voting for him, along with a bunch of other people? Seems pretty obvious to me. *Shrug*.

Do you realize that you aren't even voting Bubka? We should work on changing that, because he does, in fact, need more votes as of now.

Why does he? Because he hasn't posted much and needs pressure? I'm not sure I'm buying this wagon at this point in time.

Are you sure its a good idea to lynch him this early? We still have 2 weeks to discuss.

:goodposting:


This wagon grew very rapidly with no real content posts from any of the people on it. This worries me and I will certainly be looking into this in greater depth tomorrow.

I like kakeng's post. He's town.

Inclined to agree at this point.

Tar is correct, Bubka's last post here was 10/19, he has posted on this site a ton since then...I think he is trying to lay low to avoid suspicion..

Finally an actual reason to suspect him. It's still about lurking but this time at least it's with evidence of him actively avoiding this game.




And that about brings me up to where I entered the game. Phew.

Some conclusions then:

MoS, Kakeng and CKD strike me as most town at the moment.

UA and Tarhalindur strike me as least likely town at the moment.

I feel we heard a criminally small amount from CTD since he replaced, Lowell (obv), FaerieLord and Stark during today and I'll be expecting far more contribution to the town's objectives over the coming days.

I'm kinda "meh" about lynching Bubka although I agree that with the deadline it's probably the best play. I would ideally like to see a claim from him prior to deadline, but I'm not even certain he's going to post here again at this point.

I have this gut feeling that he's town but the reason that I still think he is the best play here is because of the rapidness and reaction to his bandwagon. I am certain there is at least one scum on that list of early adopters and I think that knowing his alignment will provide opportunity for some juicy analysis tomorrow.

Any questions on what I've written or anything you feel I haven't covered then you know where I am

[Mert]

I'm not saying we hunt down and kill the Survivor, I'm saying that if he claims Survivor then there's no reason not to still lynch him as though he'd claimed Townie.

[Mert]

Unvote

. That vote was from my predecessor anyway.

Bubka, claim or die mate. That's the rules.

[Mert]

Hmm, interesting. If he's lying then I don't think the real super backup should counter claim at this point. I still have the vague feeling he's town, but CKD's right - Bubka needs to actually start playing the game now, especially if he genuinely does have a power role.

We still have a few days before deadline so it's not all over for you yet Bubka, but you need to show actual commitment to contributing for the rest of today if you want to stand a chance as there are certain people (UA) who seemed to be rather baying for your blood...

[Mert]

Vote: Tarhalindur

[Mert]

Wait - if he claimed townie he'd be lynched in all likelihood, correct? Yet if he claimed townie who won't necessarily work for the town at all times that's somehow worth keeping him alive for?

My point is that if he claimed Survivor then I'm not necessarily going to automatically let him live like I would had he claimed Cop or something. The Survivor role is both unconfirmable and a potential threat to the town as we approach endgame.

I'm very interested to hear why you think a Survivor claim would make you want to keep him around longer.

[Mert]

Its not the Survivor that gets me, its the townie lynching policy.

You said: He claims townie, we kill him (paraphrased). Which means that by your rules 80% of the town will be policy lynched.

Well that's certainly

an

interpretation on what I said. But read carefully what you just wrote and look for how "he claims townie, we kill him" and "let's kill all the townies" are, in fact, totally different.

Most of this town had decided he was scummiest. I had acknowledged that while I saw no real evidence of such, his lynch would be a good play due to all the juicy information his bandwagon would give us.

If he had claimed to be vanilla townie at that point, he undoubtedly would have still been the best play. People who found him scummy wouldn't have been persuaded by that enough to remove their vote so he probably would have remained the primary lynch candidate for today had that been his claim.

However, what you're suggesting is that I said I would "policy lynch" any claimed townie, which is complete nonsense. I was talking very specifically about what would happen to Bubka if he had claimed townie in this current situation with a pressing deadline, a huge bandwagon and an array of people seemingly queuing up to hammer him.

Are

you

saying that if he claimed vanilla townie he would have had a decent chance of surviving today? I'm saying probably not. You either disagree or have chosen a rather bizarre moment to misrepresent me for reasons unclear.

[Mert]

So your Policy lynch of claimed vanillia was contextually refering to Bubka and Bubka only?

In that instance yes. However, it is true to say that the vast majority of times that somebody is scummy enough to have been forced to claim, so what I said would be true in the vast majority of cases.

That doesn't mean it's what I'd do as a matter of policy (which is why I take objection to your specific wording there).

I guess the flipside to your question is why would you allow someone to be forced into a claim or die situation if "their behaviour fits Townie"?

[Mert]

If someone is really really scummy, a townie claim will not save them (that being said, it must still be considered). 80% of the town would therefore look scummy upon a claim, BUT 80% of the town should not HAVE to claim, for that reason.

Yeah, that's basically what I was talking about in my claims post. It's probably my fault for trying to make posts when I should be sleeping, as it's certainly not when I'm at my most coherent, heh. Glad we cleared it up though

[Mert]

BTW, I once heard something about caps lock and crusie control and some other stuff.

[Mert]

No Flash for me, I use Adobe ImageReady.

[Mert]

I can't believe how keen certain people are to force this game off-topic!

Unvote, Vote: UltimaAvalon

[Mert]

Unvote, Vote: Flameaxe

[Mert]

I only did it because I want DrippingGoofball to love me

Well, that's not

entirely

true. It's also because he's derailing the game when he has already been warned by the mod that doing so will forfeit any extension to the deadline and has repeatedly ensured that we go off-topic long enough to not find a credible alternative suspect. Something about it all doesn't add up - there's larking about (which I accept, he may be doing) and then there's hindering the town's chances despite knowing he was actively doing so by larking about. He's doing the latter, therefore vote stays.

[Mert]

I've never played with DGB or Mert (I played in a Mert-modded game a while back, but that's it.)

You guys are seriously retarded. No joke there.

I never said I'd played a game with you, I made an observation based on your conduct in this one.

Rather than calling us retarded, why don't you try and prove us wrong and provide a decent alternative suspect? Or maybe you can let us know who you find scummy and why. Or y'know, anything that helps the town.

[Mert]

So is the

wagon de jour

FaerieLord now then or is Flameaxe still a possibility?

I'm happy with either, to be honest.