California Trilogy - Dantès in Fresno (Game Over!)

[foolinc]

/confirmed

[foolinc]

Since I don't know how many people are actually familiar with the book, The Count Of Monte Cristo, I took the time to get all of the characters from the Cliff Notes link that "Mr. Grey" kindly posted:

Edmond Dantès (alias the Count of Monte Cristo; his other aliases are Sinbad the Sailor, Abbé Busoni, and Lord Wilmore)
Monsieur Dantès
Monsieur Morrel
Julie Morrel Herbault
Maximilien Morrel
Cloclès
Abbé Faria
Cesare Spada
Haydée
Bertuccio
Luigi Vampa
Signor Pastrini
Peppino
ALI, the Count's mute Nubian valet
Jacopo
Gaspard Caderousse
Monsieur De Villefort
Renée, the first Madame de Villefort, née Mademoiselle Saint-Méran
Valentine De Villefort
Héloise, the second Madame de Villefort
Edouard De Villefort
Monsieur Noirtier
Monsieur Danglars, later Baron Danglars
Baroness Danglars
Eugénie Danglars
Fernand Mondego, alias the Count de Morcerf
Mercédès Herrera, later the Countess de Morcerf
Albert De Morcerf
Benedetto, alias Andrea Cavalcanti
The Marquis And The Marquise De Saint-Mèran
Doctor D'avrigny
Monsieur De Boville
Lucien Debray
Franz D'epinay


I also think there is some merit in talking about which characters could be apart of this game, if nothing else to be an ice breaker.

Now I'm not totally sure which characters are apart of this game but the one's that seem the most likely to be the members of the mafia are of course Baron Danglars, Count de Morcerf aka Fernand Mondego, Monsieur De Villefort, and Gaspard Caderousse since they are the four that send Edmond Dantès to Château d'If. I'm guessing if there is a serial killer on the loose, it's going to be Baroness Danglars since she poisoned a good number of people.

Then again, since there will be three games, it's a possiblity that the mafia is one of three major families to spread out the "scum" from CoMC. In this scenario Gaspard Caderousse seems to be left out, but I could see him as a serial killer because of his greed (kills the jeweler and attempts to kill Dantes when he was disguised as Abbe Busoni.

On a side note, The Count of Monte Cristo seems to be a great choice for a mafia theme. There are so many possibilites.

Continuing the speculation, we also have a possible doctor in D'avrigny, a possible miller in Benedetto, a possilbe set of lovers in Maximilien and Valentine, and maybe a roleblocker in Haydée.

I think the only character can be ruled out at this point is ALI, the Count's mute Nubian valet. Somehow I don't think a mute character would work very well in a game were you have to have a lot of quality posts.

[foolinc]

Throws up some suspicion on non-Concordet voters, which I don't agree with.

Why don't you agree? I don't understand why any pro-town role would not use a list. The only reason for not using a list is because you are scum and haven't had time to work out with your scum buddies what is the right way to use it to your advantage.

Even if you don't provide a list, you're just saying: I'd be equally happy to lynch anyone.

vote: MGM

, PlaysWithSquirrels, LoudMouthLee, Dragon Phoenix, Skruffs

-JEEP

Please explain why any pro-town role would want to use a list this early in the game? Do you have an example (like a previous game) to support your theory that would support this?

It seems to me that posting an anaylsis like DP and/or using an FOS is just as good right now as using Concordet voting.

[foolinc]

~Anaylsis up to 156~

Adele: Her views on totally random voting make me think she is probably town.

Cogito Ergo Sum: Hasn’t posted enough to really get a feel.

Cubsfan4ever: Backs Skruffs actions as “Skruffs being Skruffs;” Neutral for now

Dragon Phoenix: First one to post a full analysis and has been looking in the right places; probably town

jeep: Started to be suspicious after the blanket statement about not list voting means your scum (102) and his recent post (141) makes me even more so. Somewhat scummy

logicticus: Has contributed a good amount of information; leaning towards town.

LoudmouthLee: Been very active and akin to his name, loud; seems to be town

Mastermind of Sin: I'm not a fan of dice voting as it serves absolutely no purpose at all; slightly scummy

Mgm: Been a bit defensive about showing up the tail end of list votes, however has been making reasonable contributions as of late; leaning toward town

Oman: Not the strongest speller, but otherwise seems to be working for the town.

PlaysWithSquirrels: Not a lot to go on, but gave a reason for his vote; neutral

PookyTheMagicalBear: No read yet

Skruffs: I didn't like the way he reacted to the bandwagon at all. I thought he lashed out at other too much when he was trying to defending himself. However, some people have stated this is just his personality; Mostly scummy with a change of town.

Talitha: Needs to explain why she voted for who she did before I can make a judgement.

Thesp: Hasn't posted yet
Thestatusquo: Hasn't posted yet

VitaminR: I like how he picked apart Skruffs in post 74, however I think that he might be reaching with the vote of DP. There is also a chance that he was taking advantage of Skruffs' personality. ; Mostly townie with a chance of scum.

xyzzy: Hasn’t posted enough to get a feel

Zindaras: I’m not sure if I totally buy the metagame reasoning for starting the Skruffs wagon before switching to LML. IGMEOY
---

Looks to me like the best choice, as of now, is Skruffs.

Vote: Skruffs

[foolinc]

PWS?

It think it's short for PlaysWithSquirrels, though I could be wrong.

[foolinc]

Scruffs decides that, since Thesp is a good player, we should "Yay Thesp!" because he "has a lot to bring?"

What would happen if Thesp was scum, Scruffs?

Is there any immediate reason to assume Thesp is scum, because if there isn't I don't see the problem here.

You don't see a problem with inherently singing someone's praises just because who they are?

Everyone in this game has the same chances of being scum. To say "Yay Thesp! You have a lot to bring to the table here!" basically means, to me, that Scruffs is giving some sort of power to thesp... The feeling of Gospel.

It rubs me the wrong way. MGM, I'm kinda suprised it doesn't make you uneasy.

While I tend to agree with you in principle, at this point it isn't that big of a problem (if it is at all). We have enough people in the game right now that it doesn't matter. If we had less people, I'd be more concerned.

[foolinc]

Unvote

Vote : Dragon Phoenix

, [jeep, vitaminr, pooky], [mastermind of sin, cogito ergo sum,

adele

, loudmouthlee, cubsfan, oman], [plays with squirrel (TSQ's replacement), MGM], [everyone else I've forgotten about, Skruffs], [talitha, zindaras,

adele

], No Lynch.

Underlined for stress. Also note that PWS isn't TSQ's replacement: Tamuz is. And you would rather lynch yourself than Tally/Adele/me/No lynch?

[foolinc]

Unvote

Vote : Dragon Phoenix

, [jeep, vitaminr, pooky], [mastermind of sin, cogito ergo sum,

adele

, loudmouthlee, cubsfan, oman], [plays with squirrel (TSQ's replacement), MGM], [everyone else I've forgotten about, Skruffs], [talitha, zindaras,

adele

], No Lynch.

Underlined for stress. Also note that PWS isn't TSQ's replacement: Tamuz is. And you would rather lynch yourself than Tally/Adele/me/No lynch?

Sorry for the first post, hit submit on accident. Anyway, I agree with Zindaras here. While I don't agree with DP reasoning for putting himself before a no lynch, I can see where he's coming from. However, I'm not sure where you are coming from and would like futher explaination.

[foolinc]

I'm on post 256.

Foolinc:
- Acts helpful, really isn't all all, any one of us could go on wikipedia or some related site and get a list like that and, again, avoid talking about people in the games' actions

So my post where I gave my opinions on every player in the game wasn't helpful at all? Even when it gave you the bullet below?

-Says scruff is " mostly scummy" but Cubsfan who basically just defends skruffs accoring to him is "neutral"

Actually I put down netrual for now, which is quite different than just saying he was netural. It's hard to tell whether Cubs was trying to make sure scum didn't metagame their way to an early mislynch or he was using metagame to either buddy up to an innocent or save partner scum at the stage of the post.

- 217 WTF?
.

What's so hard to get. Mgm asked what an abbreviation and I answered it since I was on.

[foolinc]

Mind you foolinc these words were written as I've read so some of it may be out of date, but I kept them just to maintain progressive thought, which is something replacements often don't have.

Wouldn't have been better to quote your points then, so there is no possible way someone could confuse it for a summary?

My 217, WTF comment comes from you saying nothing for a large chunk of posts and then coming in and answering a question mostly anyone could answer but you said nothing else. I think you "Sarnath'd" someone, but their post gave the answer AND content where you felt your activity in this game was fine being limited to such empty posts.

I think you are grasping at straws. It would be one thing if Mgm said anything more than "PWS?" on post 216. Another thing that would have made your arguement more convicing would be if Mgm said anything about wanting Zindaras to explain why he wanted to add PWS to "that little list" (post 215), but He stated in post 218 "You're probably right. Thanks." and nothing more. It would seem that there was no more content to be added.

My first - was about your first post, which is has been mention and I feel even more strongly that you were just making it look like you were being proactive and helpful, but at the same time avoiding saying anything dangerous or anything that could link you to other people.

My first post was posted an hour after the game started. The only other thing I could have done is make a basely vote for someone who mathimatically probably part of the town. My post wasn't faked helpfulness. I genuinely thought it could be helpful. It hasn't been so far, but still might be in the future.

Could ya explain better how neutral for now is different then neutral. If you think he is neutral.... for now, you still think he is NEUTRAL at that point in time, yes? One just has a clause giving you more leeway in easily gliding away from your POV. The other doesn't give that leeway (although it is fair to mention that it doesn't box you into the POV). I just find it very strange that many on the Skruff is scumwagon think SOMETHING about Cubsfan, but you on the other hand plop him as a neutral with nothing to say about him, whereas you do have a developed oppinion on Skruff.

Who said neutral isn't a developed opinion? At that moment I read Cubs as neutral for now because, as I already said, I saw that his post could be read as both pro-town and anti-town and at the moment the possibility it being so was equal, putting him at neutral. The "for now" meant just that, for now, because his "as of now" netural statement could easily become scummy or pro-town by how he responded to that people questioning him on the posts.

Oh and your timing is also very interesting that I come on here and attack, and vote you and poof you appear the next post despite your sporadic appearances earlier.

Interesting timing? You posted at 6:16pm and I posted at 2:06am right before I went to bed. That's almost 8 hours inbetween posts, so I'm not sure what you mean by that.

I will be posting up another analysis and a Condorcet vote later today (EST).

[foolinc]

Unfortunately real life has gotten in the way of me finishing my anaylsis, but I will be finished sometime tomorrow.

Cubs: Could you explain more than two sentences on why you voted for LML? A couple of quotes or links to certain posts citing the reasons for your vote would be helpful.

[foolinc]

~Anaylsis up to 344~

Adele: Still feeling a townie vibe, especially her response to LML’s “Gospel” post (post 240).

Cogito Ergo Sum: Hasn’t post a ton of content, but the content he’s given seems to make me think me is playing for the town.

Cubsfan4ever: Highly scummy. Contributed nothing besides backing Skruffs in the very beginning.

Dragon Phoenix: DP hasn’t shown me anything that would change my initial thoughts; probably town.

Battle Mage/jeep: BM hasn’t been around long enough to make any sort of impact, however up until jeep was replaced I still found him to be scummy since the only content he provided was able the voting policy. Still somewhat scummy.

logicticus: While I disagree on his opinion of Oman, I am still leaning toward town with logicticus.

LoudmouthLee: Has been very overaggressive (which is his play style) however, I don’t think the things that he has been attacking are very important, the “Yay Thesp” is a good example of what I mean. Slightly scummy.

Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin: Hasn’t really contributed anything besides his own defense before getting replaced. I’m still with slightly scummy for now.

Mgm: Still leaning towards town, though I don’t know if I like his defense of Cubs “lurking” not being scummy (at least I think that it what he was trying to say in post 335).

IH/Oman: I said that I thought Oman seemed to be working for the town and IH hasn’t shown me a reason to believe otherwise.

PlaysWithSquirrels: Since my last analysis post he’s only made a few posts of worth and since he just asked for a replacement, I’ll leave him as neutral.

PookyTheMagicalBear: Has been hard to read so far. Neutral

Skruffs: While his play as of late has given me some doubts of whether or not he is really scum, downgraded to slightly scummy.

Talitha: I’m a fan of people stating their reasons for their votes and I don’t buy that Oman only getting through three people is a sign that he is scum (as real life could easily explain that reason). However both of these stem problem from game play issues, so I think I’ll place her as neutral for the time being.

Thesp: Has been asking lots of questions so far which is making me feel that he is a townie.

Tamuz/Thestatusquo: Thestatusquo totally flaked on the game (school is a very good reason to flake though). Tamuz has been very active for the short time he’s been playing and I need to see more (as in posts over time, not in regards of activity level) before I make a judgment.

VitaminR: Hasn’t posted a lot since my last analysis (pretty sure he was on vacation), however my feelings on him pretty much have remained the same. Mostly townie with a chance of scum.

xyzzy: Has been pretty loud and aggressive, maybe even over aggressive in regards to the “Yay Thesp” comment. I’m not quite sure whether this means he is scum or not, not yet anyway.

Zindaras: I’m still not happy with the way he handled the Skruffs situation early on, I think that his play as of late has been for the town.
---------

unvote; Vote: Cubsfan4ever,

Battle Mage/jeep, Skruffs, Dani Banani/Mastermind of Sin, LoudmouthLee, [PlaysWithSquirrels, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz/Thestatusquo, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, logicticus, Mgm, IH/Oman, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

I don't know about everybody else, but while I would like you two to post which one of you is speaking, it would be the end of the world if you didn't.

[foolinc]

I think this whole logic of "if Skruffs turns out to be innocent than it means Cubs is scum" is a great big pile of crap logic. As town I think part of my duty is to not only ensure that scum is lynched but work towards that in part by ensuring people that I think are town are not lynched. I do not think it is scummy to defend somebody that you think is town. It's something that could be scummy but to use that alone was somehow evidence that I am ultra-scum does not work.

You defending Skruffs isn't good enough alone, however the fact you've been pretty inactive AND in the few posts you have made have done almost nothing besides defend Skruffs.

Your posts

0: confirm post
1: Defense of Skruffs
2: Defense of Skruffs
3: Defense of Skruffs; compares to LML
4: Attacks LML; defense of skruffs
5: Votes for LML citing odd behavior
6: Defense of self
7: Defense of self

So not only our you defending Skruffs, but you are voting for LML for doing the same thing Skruffs is, being himself.

[foolinc]

My apologizes for the grammar errors with my post. I'm pretty tired and hit submit when I wanted to hit preview. Here's want I wanted to say:

Defending Skruffs isn't a good enough reason for lynching you. However, the facts that you have been pretty inactive and in the few posts you have made, they've almost all been about defending Skruffs.

Your posts

0: confirm post
1: Defense of Skruffs
2: Defense of Skruffs
3: Defense of Skruffs; compares to LML
4: Attacks LML; defense of skruffs
5: Votes for LML citing odd behavior
6: Defense of self about not lurking
7: Defense of self in general

After looking at your posts again, you look even scummier since you defend Skruffs for being Skruffs, but attacking LML because he was beening his overagressive self.

[foolinc]

So not only our you defending Skruffs, but you are voting for LML for doing the same thing Skruffs is, being himself.

After looking at your posts again, you look even scummier since you defend Skruffs for being Skruffs, but attacking LML because he was beening his overagressive self.

To suggest that LoudmouthLee is being voted for "being himself" is a gross oversimplification.

I was talking in regards to Cubs, not the rest of the people voting for LML, so I don't see why it's a case of gross oversimplification.

[foolinc]

Is anyone worried that tiering innocence rather than to guilt will help scum line up a few targets that they would like to take out if a large amount of people find them innocentish rather than less guilty.

I say this to perhaps suggest we should take off our no-read/inconclusive/innocents from our Condorcet lists (ie lump all 3 of those in 1 category). I say this because from experience if people stress that they feel one player is innocent, and that player is, then scum are often more likely to hit them. Barring other circumstances.

I understand your concern, but I don't think it's a huge issue. Most of the time, players have well-defined opinions of at least a couple of players near the end of days. And in general, I would speculate that not talking about a player means no-read or near-neutral (anywhere from slightly scummy to slightly protown). Scums may not have detailed, person-by-person lists, but they know the top suspicions, usually the biggest protown suspicions, and they can tell who is flying under the gun. When you stop and think about it, I don't think we're giving out hardly any more information than in a game with a normal voting system.

It might be inexperience talking but wouldn't this limit information given to the town? It seems to me the best way to find scum is to be as honest as possible and as just as willing to share information. That gives us the best possible chance of the uniformed majority becoming informed before the mafia become the majority (ok, so the mafia will only get to 50% before winning, but screw it, I'm on a roll). So, when using this thought process it seems to me that tiering votes is a good thing for the town as well as the mafia.

[foolinc]

Oh and Talitha, you need to make sure your vote is at the very bottom of your post or else it doesn't count.

[foolinc]

With the recent claims, here is a new new list. All I did was move Battle mage and LML back in the order.

unvote; Vote:

Cubsfan4ever, Skruffs, Dani Banani, Battle Mage, [ Gaspar, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, logicticus, Mgm, IH, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

Looks like I'm an idoit and my vote wasn'ts valid since I didn't bold Cubs. Here we go again.

unvote; Vote: Cubsfan4ever,

Skruffs, Dani Banani, Battle Mage, [ Gaspar, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, logicticus, Mgm, IH, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

After looking over the raw data I finally figured out why I thought my list was wrong, I don't have DP on it. Here's the final list from me....hopefully.

unvote; Vote: Cubsfan4ever, Skruffs, Dani Banani, Battle Mage, [ Gaspar, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, logicticus, Mgm, IH, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

I give up.

unvote; Vote: Cubsfan4ever,

Skruffs, Dani Banani, Battle Mage, [ Gaspar, LoudmouthLee, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz, xyzzy], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, logicticus, Mgm, IH, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

I can't believe Cubs would wait that late in the day to do that. Oh well, time for a new list.

unvote; Vote: Skruffs,

Dani Banani, Battle Mage, xyzzy, [ Gaspar, PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha, Tamuz, ], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, logicticus, Mgm, IH, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], [Cubsfan4ever, LoudmouthLee], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

> : (
Somebody blocked me. That pisses me off.

Did you get some kind of message that your action was blocked?

That is particularly damning for MGM. He is the only voter on Cubsfan who had a chance AFTER Mith posted duel results to change their vote FROM cubsfan to someone else.

I wasn't the only one. Foolinc changed his vote after the duel results and between my question about the duel and the end of the day was about 30 minutes. Obviously not enough time to get an alternative lynch going - at least not one that wasn't LML.

That's right I did change my vote to account for the fact that both Cubs and LML were confirmed innocents. You didn't though and I'm not quite sure why. Cubs played very poorly and I have no clue why he took the chance to lie about who he was, but like Gaspar stated, there was no logical reason to beleive that Cubs was scum after the duel.

[foolinc]

Except Cubs was Kirk Kerkorian and didn't actually kill anyone. There's no reason to assume he was telling the truth or actually had any functional ability.

Day-SKs generally do one of two things:
1. Pretend to be a day-vig
2. just kill whoever they want.
Would a day-SK kill xyzzy this early in the day? I seriously doubt it. Killing xyzzy is consistent with 1. Killing early is not. I can see a real dayvig taking out xyzzy though, as a result of a desire to avoid the deadline rush that plagued Day 1. If you kill him early, then the town has all the time in the world to find a new lynch candidate.

But if we have a serial killer that uses poison (which could explain the delayed death), would they pretend to be a vig as well?

[foolinc]

I have not read anything since Day started. I, do, however, need to post 25 or more words to satisfy the mod. So I'm going to say that I'll get you guys a post tomorrow, as I was largely busy today.

I've posted Friday afternoon, but I'm going to be very busy until late Monday and don't know if I am going to get some time to spend on mafia.

[foolinc]

In terms of the secret word, I am unsure what to make of it. I've used it in a post day one, but nothing happened as far as I could tell.

I'm kind of suspicious of IH, being suspicious of logiticus. I also just filtered for mgm and was surprised at how easy it was to get EusgenieTownie, which is pretty close to mgm's claim. This doesn't make mgm a confirmed innocent in the though.

Speaking of Mgm, I've taken a look at jeep's and xyzzy's posts and discovered that mgm, PlaysWithSquirrels (who was replaced by Gaspar), LoudMouthLee, and Skruffs are common votes between both players. There has to be a reason that both were nightkilled instead of scum attempting to get the town to lynch them.

Vote: Skruffs,

[Dani Banani, Gaspar], [PookyTheMagicalBear, IH, Mgm, Talitha, Tamuz ], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, logicticus, LoudmouthLee, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

(Glork.)

Pooky: Yes, I see that now. I more or less skimmed the most recent posts because I was trying to lay down some gut thoughts/reactions. My fault.

I am somewhat baffled by the ordering of your list, Foolinc. Why is Dani at an even level with me? Why are IH/Mgm at a lower level? What do you think of LoudmouthLee's claim and his subsequent behavior?
What do you think of the Tamuz/Skruffs discussion? How about Thesp? CES?


...an awful lot of trains of thought so far today, and yet Fool chooses to use the

kills

as his primary basis for suspicion (and under the assumption that the same mafia group killed both BM and Xyzzy)? That seems a bit off to me.

(Preview Edit: It seems that all Fool did was modify his end-of-day VC from yesterday by bumping up the people who were mutually suspected by the dead players. While it shows consistency, I have to question Foolinc's failure to take into account any of the discussions today, as I just indicated above.)

I'm glad to see you saw that IH was also moved up as well.

And today's discussions DID go into the process. Skruffs had his softclaim. The events between Mgm and IH also played a part in them getting bumped up (I was close to moving logicticus up as well), and the fact that LML is grouped with my likely townie group and not by himself inbetween that group and no lynch or even on the other side of the no lynch should have tipped you off that I have some suspisions about him, even with his role claim and the whole duel.

And the reason you are on the same level as Danni is because I did augment my old list and while you were moved up I did see any reason to move Danni.

And no, I don't think that they were both killed by the same scum group, however I do believe that they both were on the right track in some fashion or else they wouldn't have been killed.

CES: I realize that BM claimed to be an information role, however I also thought that there could have been a chance that the mafia would use BM's poor past and try for a lynch.

[foolinc]

Speaking of Mgm, I've taken a look at jeep's and xyzzy's posts and discovered that mgm, PlaysWithSquirrels (who was replaced by Gaspar), LoudMouthLee, and Skruffs are common votes between both players. There has to be a reason that both were nightkilled instead of scum attempting to get the town to lynch them.

Bogus. You think that the majority of the town would have "followed" Xyzzy to a lynch of any of these players? Why do you think that Xyzzy was nearly the condorcet winner? (By a 9-8 vote, Xyzzy outlasted Cubsfan). Xyzzy had a lot of heat on him. I severely doubt that he would have led the town on a crusade to get anyone.

Your right, he most likely would have been the lynch of day 2, maybe even a quick lynch. Isn't there a possiblity that the mafia would set up someone to be that guy? I'm still not quite sure that the poisoning (or whatever sort of attack caused a delayed heart attack) of Xyzzy was done by a vig either. Call it gut, but even though the game is only loosely based on The Count of Monte Cristo, with the way Xyzzy died that I think their is a serial killer in the game (I guess a second family that uses poison could also be a possiblity as well).

You say that they were both voting for me (and a few others), and that may be true, but that sample set is irrevelant. A little bit less than the majority of the town was voting for me at my greatest VC and the majority votyed me at least once throughout the day.

In other words, throw a rock at two players. Chances are both voted me at some point D1.

It is not irrelevant, it's less relevant. If they voted for you once, then it would be irrelevant, but they didn't. They voted for you throughout the day. And it's not like I'm saying this makes you scum. I'm saying this and Cubs less than accurate role claim makes has put doubts in my mind. If I had thought it was that relevant for you I would have moved you up higher on the list that were I put you.

@Foolinc - Please outline your case on Gaspar. Is it just the "I think he's the killing party that killed either Xyzzy or BM because both had voted for PWS at some point?"

It looks like a blatant framing job.

Or it's a new player being a bit overagressive. This move is going probably going to haunt me for the rest of the game, but it's better to admit a mistake and get it over with. While, I had other reasons to go along with moving everyone else up, I moved Gaspar up because I was being a bit overzealous because I thought I was on to something. The fact it was late probably didn't help matter much either.

Note: After reading Gaspar's posts again I'm going to pull a 160 and place him down the list wth the people I think are townies. Posts 3, 9, and 32 are good examples of why.

And today's discussions DID go into the process. Skruffs had his softclaim. The events between Mgm and IH also played a part in them getting bumped up (I was close to moving logicticus up as well), and the fact that LML is grouped with my likely townie group and not by himself inbetween that group and no lynch or even on the other side of the no lynch should have tipped you off that I have some suspisions about him, even with his role claim and the whole duel.

Okay, let's attack this point-by-point:
1. Skruffs did his softclaim, but what are your exact thoughts on it? You just now brought it up without actually

saying

anything about it.

My exact thoughts on the matter is that when he said he was roleblocked and then an action popped up, I thought he did it. Hense the question about whether or not he got a message or not (Which I admit was really freaking stupid of me). There is also a possiblity that he didn't do it, but I'm not a fan of the soft claim in general because it points out that you are a powerrole which will make you a target of scum, while not giving information to the town. And as I've already said, information is vital to the town overcoming the mafia.

2. Again -- Reasons? What about the discussion bothers you about Mgm, IH, and Logic?

3.. Almost logic.... so you suspect IH for being suspicious of Logic, but you suspect Logic and almost bumped him up on your list. Care to elaborate on this one?

The whole breadcrumb thing as made me suspsious of all of them because it made me question the motives of three people I thought I had a read on. Right now there are a bunch of ideas going on through my head: Was mgm's breadcrumb truthful, is IH trying to get some heat on logic by calling into question how fast he got the crumb? Did logic and mgm work together? It is possible that mgm and IH are working together and tried to trap someone? Are all three working together to make a scene? Or are they all just townies?

Now to answer why I didn't move logic up. Well when trying to work out the questions, it lead me to the realization that if logic was with mgm scum he wouldn't have answered to the question as quickly as he did because it would call into question on how he got it so fast. And if he was scum alone he wouldn't have been the first one to answer the breadcrumb.

4. The LmL thing is interesting. You have suspicions of LmL, but you've got IH (who is the only other person, as far as I can tell, actively going after LmL's claim) "bumped up" and near the top of your list. Do you suspect busing? How does the LmL/IH debate affect your suspicions? This

also

seems inconsistent to me.

This seems inconsistent to you because you are asuming that I think that believe that one scum group killed both innocents. As I already said, I think that there are two groups (most likely a mob and a SK). Plus as I already stated, I bumped up LML into a group with people I beleive are townies, this is much different than moving IH from the group of townies to the neutral/undecided group.

Also, you failed to address my questions regarding Skruffs/Tamuz, Thesp, and CES.

Skruffs/Tamuz: I agree that with Tamuz that Skruffs soft role claimed, however I'm not sold on the Skurffs/Thesp connection.

Thesp: I still thinks he's a townie. He's asking a lot of good questions IMO. The only thing that makes me question him is that he wouldn't share his theory, however that only isn't going make me move him.

CES: I am entitled to beleive that CES's "Yay dayvig" comment is a null tell. The rest of his post are in line with my feelings that he is proabaly a townie.

And the reason you are on the same level as Danni is because I did augment my old list and while you were moved up I did see any reason to move Danni.

So what you're saying is that even though everyone has posted today, none of your other suspicions have shifted at all?
[/quote]
I'm pretty sure I have already answered this question above.

And no, I don't think that they were both killed by the same scum group, however I do believe that they both were on the right track in some fashion or else they wouldn't have been killed.

CES already pointed out why this is flawed.
BM claimed to be an information role. Those, regardless of whether they are "on the right track" are always threats to the scums and instantly become viable nightkill targets.
Xyzzy was being run up, which indicates that his death likelly came from somebody who A) vigilante; or B) wants us to think they are a vigilante.[/quote]

BM might have claimed a information role, but he wasn't confirmable, wasn't comfortble, and had a bad past. Hell, I thought he was scum even after the claim.

And I do think Xyzzy was NK'd (or the less probable day kill) by a SK (though of vig isn't out of the question). I am also in the mindset that if it is a SK they will want to look like a vig, so I'm guessing that someone who vote for him would have made the kill to try and prove that they are a vig and not a SK. And if they are voting for him in such a way to make this claim, Xyzzy would have gotten suspicious and put them on his list.

Unvote; Vote: Skruffs,

Dani Banani, [PookyTheMagicalBear, IH, Mgm, Talitha, Tamuz], [Adele, Cogito Ergo Sum, Dragon Phoenix, Gaspar, logicticus, LoudmouthLee, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

Foolinc - you think xyzzy was targetted at night and died the following day? Okay. What's your reasoning?

If it was poison that caused the heart attack (and from the background given to us, that is very likely) then I think it was a delayed NK since poison would take time before causing death.

[foolinc]

Foolinc - you think xyzzy was targetted at night and died the following day? Okay. What's your reasoning?

"Because he was doing the poisoning?" quips LML, the eager contestant.

"Survey says...!" calls out Richard Dawson.

All of a sudden, the #1 answer turns over and says "Foolinc is a bad man." The families politely clap.

I was always more of a fan of work comedies like Scrubs and The Office than game shows.

And for the record Ray Combs > Richard Dawson

[foolinc]

You've posted twice without responding to my qusetion, foolinc
WHY ARE YOU VOTING ME???

I've already gone through this in other posts but here we go again:
- As I've already said, I used my old list from day 1 as a starting point where you where on top.
- You have made a soft claim, which I have already said I didn't like
- You were also on both lists

[foolinc]

You used your list... which I was on... which is why you think I'm scummy.
Why did you think I was scummy before I revealed I had been blocked?
And why is being blocked scummy, in your eyes?

Skruffs: I didn't like the way he reacted to the bandwagon at all. I thought he lashed out at other too much when he was trying to defending himself. However, some people have stated this is just his personality; Mostly scummy with a change of town.

I then moved you down because I, incorrectly, thought others were better choices. However, since both choices are now dead you moved up.

It's not the fact you said you were blocked. It's:

I'm not a fan of the soft claim in general because it points out that you are a powerrole which will make you a target of scum, while not giving information to the town.

[foolinc]

(Glork.)

It's not the fact you said you were blocked. It's:

I'm not a fan of the soft claim in general because it points out that you are a powerrole which will make you a target of scum, while not giving information to the town.

Erm... this logic is flawed.
1) He might not be power. Though they are relatively rare, there

are

roleblockers whose targets are told that they are blocked, regardless of whether they have an active ability or not.

I didn't really think of that.

2) Unless I am mistaken, your reason for suspicion assumes that Skruffs' claim of "power role" is legit. If you believe that he gave information about his role to the scums, then wouldn't that mean that he's not scum? In contrast, if you believe his scum, why would his claim of "I was roleblocked" have to do with anything? Do you believe that he is scum with power and that he was roleblocked? If so, why would he choose to share that with the town?

I've been trying to answer this question for some time, but the best answer I can give is a less than sound idea, IMO. Skruffs would do so because he, if he was scum, would pretend to be town. In an attempt to gain the trust of the town he shared some information. However, like I have said, a soft claim is scummy in my eyes. This means that scum would be unlikely to make this move unless Skruffs is the poisoner. In this case, since only BM died that night he assumed someone blocked him and posted. The reason he would post would be because the best way to survive as an SK is to pretend to be a vig, which would not only kill someone they voted for, but also probably share that they were roleblocked.

However, this idea is way too complitcated for my liking. The simplest answer is that my logic on the situation was flawed and that Skurffs is really a townie that made a less than omptimal play. I think the timing with his roleblocked claim and Xyzzy's death might have played a part in my views on Skruffs and I "saw" something that wasn't there.

----

Before, I re-evaluate the situation and create a new list. I have a few questions/comments:

Talitha: If your eyes have been glazed over the last couple of pages, how you know whether or not you liked the wagon on me?

Pooky: Any reason for voting for me at all?

Mgm: Mind sharing your reasoning for, as LML puts it, dochunting?

Dani Banani: Like Thesp, I would also like to know What about xyzzy's death makes Mgm the correct play?

IH:

Thesp: Could you expand on why you are enjoying the Adele hate?

Unvote

[foolinc]

curious why my name is up there? o.o;

Actually, I was going to comment on your last post, but had to leave the computer lab to get to a class. My bad.

I'm in a class right now on my laptop, so it might be a while till I can comment on it.

[foolinc]

I actually would consider a super kill being from one player, and would classify the mentioned action as "simultaneous".

I'm also unsure if it has been discussed or not, but has anyone thought to try and refute my points about Cubs action? Or even Read it? Any other comments would be appreciative?

Does anyone think anything from the flavor can be gathered from it? The way the duelist action happened where both players received a gun may have actually been the reverse, as only a killer would have known how to use a gun, and Cubs wasn't a killer, so he therefore missed.....

I'm a bit suspicious on the situation, but there is a lot of possibilities on what really happened.

Possible Reasons for Cubs' weird claim:
1. He didn't think anyone would buy the Kirk claim and using his power claimed CoMC.
2. Mod Bastardary - There is a chance that to use his power (which seemed to be VERY powerful) he had to claim CoMC ala Sparticus.
3. Mod Bastardary - He thought he really was the Count.

However this is really a null point right now because all we have to figure out is whether or not the duel worked the way Cubs thought it would. It's really a weird situation because no matter how scummy Cubs looks with his claim, his WAS a townie.

[foolinc]

After taking the weekend of it's time to re-adjust my list:

Since I know am an innocent, I guess the best thing to do would be to look at the people voting for me and the also the other people up for lynching. Gaspar and LML pretty much started my bandwagon, but I think they were coming from the right place. DP, Pooky, and Talitha on the other hand seem to be perfectly fine with voting for me number one just because it's a bandwagon.

Mgm's play has been HIGHLY scummy this past day. I'm really confused why he'd give up his breadcrumb to his role, but not his password. It's like getting your meal supersized and getting a diet pop because you're watching your weight. The two moves don't match up. I'm also not a fan of the whole Doctor discussion. If we have a doctor, we want to protect him/her as much as possible and this type of discussion won't help do that.

Adele up to being timed out hasn't contributed much day two. I'm also mot a fan of her 17th post when she responded to LML, but changed her vote to Cubs.

Vote: Mgm,

MrBuddyLee, [PookyTheMagicalBear, Talitha], [IH, Dani Banani, Tamuz, Dragon Phoenix], [Skruffs, Cogito Ergo Sum, Gaspar, logicticus, LoudmouthLee, Thesp, VitaminR, Zindaras], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

DP, Pooky, and Talitha on the other hand seem to be perfectly fine with voting for me number one just because it's a bandwagon.

Get your facts right. I for one am voting for you because it is a bandwagon AND you are very high on my likely scum list, if not number one.

If I go by the facts I am still behind Mgm and Dani Banani and tied with CES on your list. You have posted nothing of any content towards me since between the time when you moved me up on the list citing the bandwagon and the analysis post.

However, since I have your attention, what do you feel about the rest of my votes?

Note: This question is open to everyone.

[foolinc]

Mgm's play has been HIGHLY scummy this past day. I'm really confused why he'd give up his breadcrumb to his role, but not his password. It's like getting your meal supersized and getting a diet pop because you're watching your weight. The two moves don't match up. I'm also not a fan of the whole Doctor discussion. If we have a doctor, we want to protect him/her as much as possible and this type of discussion won't help do that.

I dont see why the password is even relevent. Why breadcrumb that at all? It doesnt help his claim in any way in my opinion by having his password.

I never said anything about breadcrumbing the password. What I said was that outing your own breadcrumb but protecting your password, in the name of protecting it from scum, is a very weird play,

[foolinc]

Am I the only one who notices that foolinc is calling it incorrectly a PASSWORD repeatedly? I'm even more happy now with my vote.

OMG I called it a password and not a secret word, so I must be scum. That makes sense. I guess everyone who called themselves townies are scum because they didn't call themselves innocents.

[foolinc]

I don't see what's so weird about it. If you can't convince people you're innocent by talking and reasoning, you claim. As logicticus said, my secret word doesn't help my claim at all, so I'd rather make an informed decision about revealing it than just throw it out there.

Dani, what do you say?

Actually, I'm more confused on why you claimed at all. You weren't in a situation that you needed to.

[foolinc]

Foolinc, the point is that you slipped up on the specifics of your secret word/password, so you must therefore not have one, in case you didn't understand what DP was implying.

Closer to a slip than a scumtell.

Your reaction to it was notable though

FoS

Actually, I do have one, but since a word could be easily faked, I don't know how I can make you believe it.

[foolinc]

Foolinc, the point is that you slipped up on the specifics of your secret word/password, so you must therefore not have one, in case you didn't understand what DP was implying.

Closer to a slip than a scumtell.

Your reaction to it was notable though

FoS

Actually, I do have one, but since a word could be easily faked, I don't know how I can make you believe it.

Then why do you find it so suspicious that MGM didnt reveal his word?

Because he openly role claimed. One would think he'd either role claim and give his secret word or none at all.

[foolinc]

It's getting close to the deadline, so I guess am going to have to claim. I was hoping for something to happen so I could see another day of this game, but there isn't a chance in hell of that happening now. I'm Doctor d'Avrigny, our doctor. My secret word was faked, which I have used both days.

FYI, I orginially protected Battle Mage, but switched to LML thinking that the mafia would try to get a Battle Mage lynch day 2.

Go town.

[foolinc]

Errr.. reread my post, let me try that again...

Why else would someone think that Members of the book MUST be scum? If they are scum and know that the scum team is proposed of

SOLELY book characters

members, and all who had died at that point are people from Fresno.

The only problem with this is that Mgm, you, and myself have claimed book characters during day 2. Wouldn't they figure out that there are innocents from both the book and the real world?

[foolinc]

Sorry for disappearing yesterday, I'll try to look into this stuff later.

It's odd to see both Skruffs and Thesp die, with the supposed link between them...

I think that it's odder that I'm not dead. I don't care how bad I played day 2, you'd think that someone would have nightkilled me. Hopefully, the the Night write up will help clear things up. Oh and so I don't forgot: faked.

[foolinc]

Time to get some discussion going:

Call me a moron, but I believe Tali at this moment.

Why do you believe Talitha?

This may change slightly, but for now..

vote: IH

, IH, IH, IH, Mr Grey, IH, ih, Dani, MBL.

Could you please tell me why you think IH needs to die? This questions is open to LML too.

Uhh weigh on yesterday, I don't trust foolinc's claim, especially with the way he came out today.

Expand on your reasoning for this.

[foolinc]

I can see the Lace capitalization. I cannot see the Xyzzy capitalization....

hey you know what's funny? You know how Cubsfan said he knew what would happen to someone if they were mafia? Did he know what would happen to someone if they were neutral? = |

I'm feeling the exact same way about the duel. It's also logical to conclude that if he was a day serial killer, Lee would have started to capitalize his words from day one so it wouldn't look out of place. That said, I don't think this is enough evidence to put LML on the block.

IGMEOY: LML

[foolinc]

1.That's in a different format, first off. When your Lace Xyzzy was posted, it was seperated. It was in two different paragraphs. It was seperated by a quote. It wasn't in the same sentence. There are way to many possible restrictions for that to prove anything.

2.It could be a one shot, or alternating action (as has been mentioned) Like you can only do it on even days.

3.Maybe you can only do it on certain players. Or it was a gift from someone.

4.The method of sending it in could be changed. Maybe one day it would be all caps, the next day pm, the third day italics, the fourth day a different phrase, etc etc etc.

This doesn't mean that LML did it, btw, it just means that his Lace X proves nothing. The scenario of SK noticing it and killing is just as likely. I think the above proves that LML didn't breadcrumb it at least.

I'm in full agreement here. LML's Lace X stuff today proves nothing. There are too many variables to think about at this point, so we should probably leave it a lone till there is a bit more information.

[foolinc]

Pooky: Might telling me why, if you think the duel didn't mean anything, you didn't say anything about it day 2?

Sarcastro: You haven't answered Tali's question about why you'd think it's odd for someone to "have a player who noticed something suspicious about another player on my condorcet?" Post 1130

Tamuz: Why is "Pooky is on the up and up" (His 28th post) and why did you end your post with "I am Jack's complete disgust." in your 27th post.

Everyone who believes LML is scum: Why do you think LML would kill xyzzy?

[foolinc]

Should have previewed be for posting, since I didn't notice the new vote count. Looks like Gaspar's theory has some merit since Violet didn't work.

[foolinc]

yes talitha, however we have no idea what a "duel" actually does, he says that it is supposed to do this and that, but if the mod lied to him about his identity, what else could the moderator have left out?

Do you believe Kirk Kerkorian is capable of killing a mafia member in a duel?

I'm not sure, but it said he was a pretty good boxer (he won a local title) so it's possible.

On a side note, you're prediction about the Yankees were wrong.

[foolinc]

VirR and DP: Why is the Mr. Grey a distraction? We know that he's on the lists for a reason. Why couldn't he be a real lynch? And why is MBL a better lynch than Mr. Grey?

[foolinc]

I'd just like to point out that less than half of the town is even voting, and we're over halfway through the day.


CES, foolinc, IH, logicticus, MrBuddyLee, Pooky, Tamuz, and Zindaras: Is there

any

reason that you're holding back your votes? Are you happy with the "sit around and wait, and then leave less than 48 hours to allow for adjustments pending a significant claim" approach that has been prevelant during the first two days?

Actually, I was quite busy up until today. I'm making my list as we speak.

[foolinc]

I think my list is pretty much self explainitory from my actions this day.

Vote: Talitha

, PookyTheMagicalBear, Mr. Grey, MrBuddyLee, [Sarcastro, Tamuz] [VitaminR, Dragon Phoenix], [Cogito Ergo Sum, logicticus], [Gaspar, Zindaras, IH], LoudmouthLee, no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

Hey, Foolinc, why haven't you answered my question yet?

I looked at Tali's posts with the filter and thought it was refering to you. My bad.

[foolinc]

That wasn't the question. The question was why you were so eager when you didn't know the context. What did you expect from my answer, exactly?

It's irrelevlant since it wasn't actually meant for you. If it was then I would love to know why did answer that, but it wasn't for you so the question is null and void.

[foolinc]

Meh I meant didn't answer the question, not did answer that...

[foolinc]

Why would lynching the mod in this stage of the game be a good idea? Most likely we would just be wasting a lynch (effectively meaning a no-lynch vote). I see no clear case against Mr. Grey, whereas there are several scummy candidates for a rope.

I forgot to respond to this. I can see where you are coming from but unlike the rest of us, Mr. Grey can't answer questions and can't be caught in lies. There is also another reason, which is mostly based on gut. In my ability section of the role pm it said I might not be able to save everyone. It's a possiblity that it was referring to death caused by Mr. Grey. Of course I could be overthinking about that. It could just be some flavor commenting on the fact that I can't save the lives of people getting lynched.

[foolinc]

Guys, we need to focus on finding scum rather than worrying about Mr Grey and silly coincidences. I acknowledge that I myself have been lacking in this area recently and I resolve to re-read the game and help give this game a boost.

We need to find scum to lynch.

Speaking of finding scum. Who do you think is scummy right now and why haven't you voted yet?

[foolinc]

MBL, did you give an explanation for your vote on me? Is it a holdover from Dani or something?

I think we can all agree that LML should be lynched. The more I think about it, the more I don't like the lace "coincidence" and the more I dislike his reaction to Talitha and Pooky, as well. Oh, and his claim, too. Yeah, he needs to be more dead.

If LML is scum, then why didn't he die in the duel?

[foolinc]

Alright, I'm glad we're moving away from the Mr. Grey idea. (and really it is strange how Gaspar let it go completely in his last post/s once it had been shown only Grey can be voted on, but overall town consensus is that it is a waste of time and dirty flak right now).

However, this town seems very strange in comparison to most I've experienced, this may be due to the skill level or it may be due to occurrences that developed in meta-mafia during my hiatus. But we have a increasingly large number of polarized individuals who have strong unyielding oppinions on others, but as a whole there isn't really a town sentiment towards any players. The play is very much as strong indiviuals, which scarily gives the scum places to hide.

But for my real vote now, since I can't vote god and everyone else.

vote: LML

, [MBL, Foolinc, Talitha], [IH,VitR].[Gaspar, DP Sarcastro Logiticus], [Pooky, CES], No Lynch, Zindaras, Tamuz

Any reason in particular I'm so high on your list?

Oh and here's a question for Pooky: Who do you have in the NCLS? I got the Rockies in 6.

[foolinc]

I am not in favor of the LML lynch at all. I'm not sure about the duel (Cubs needs a verbal lashing for his day 1 play), but since there isn't a reason for LMLscum to kill xyzzy (he was most likely going to be lynched) I can't support a LML today. I'm voting for Mr. Grey since: 1. I think LML is innocent 2. If Mr. Grey is in the game (and by all accounts he is), he has the advantage of not being able to answer questions and can't be caught in scummy situations like other players.

Vote: Mr. Grey,

Talitha, PookyTheMagicalBear, MrBuddyLee, [Sarcastro, Tamuz] [VitaminR, Dragon Phoenix], [Cogito Ergo Sum, logicticus], [Gaspar, Zindaras, IH], LoudmouthLee, no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

That is the scummiest reason ever, foolinc. Basically you are saying 'I'm going to vote for the person who can't defend themself. why? Oh because they can't say anything!'

I'm incredibly suspicious of anyone who has Mr Grey high on their condorcet list for this very reason.

Personally, I'm suspcious of anyone who kindnaps a bunch of people, puts masks on their faces that they can't remove, and let them kill each other.

[foolinc]

That was interesting, LML hammered himself and claimed SK/Count Of Monte Cristo.

[foolinc]

Foolinc, are you just trying to look smart or something by guessing LML's?

He's not the Count of Monte Cristo (unless he was lying), because he claimed to be from Fresno.

My bad, I read that as "I'm not from fresno" I guess I was focusing too much on the whole master of disguise bit. Time to wiki and goggle.

[foolinc]

why wiki/google? he'll be dead soon anyway lol

I'm bored.

[foolinc]

And why is LML defending foolinc.

And IH's last post seems off.
A lynch-1 as a placeholder?

Could it be that I was protecting him each night because I thought he was town.

Survey says.....YES!

[foolinc]

One SK down, with my apologies to those whom I initially did not believe about LML. I think his attack on Pooky was just frustrated spite, does not seem part of his role.

I am bothered by the death of VitaminR. He was pretty low on most people's suspicion list and as such an obvious night target.

That makes me question Foolinc once more. I think you need to tell us whom you protected last night and why.

Since the mob was trying to nightkill LML the past two days (I am assuming that LML wasn't lying about that fact), I looked for someone who was just as vocal as he was, Gaspar. He wasn't as squeaky clean as VitR according to the voting, but if you remember LML (whom I assume the mob thought was a townie and not actually the SK) was on the hotseat for most of the game.

I also feel that his Mr. Grey theory held more merit after LML's role was revealed (From the wiki article I can't see him daykilling, and really I can't see LMLSK daykilling anyway. He needs to survive at all costs and daykilling with a password like LACE doesn't help with that).

[foolinc]

Oh and before I forget, faked.

Mith is such a dick for making that my secret word... Of course if he wasn't, this game wouldn't be as fun.

[foolinc]

I don't get it, Foolinc. Is there some kind of requirement that you have to say your secret word every day? Did I miss something?

I'm looking at it this way. I've used it every day and nothing bad has happened because of it. So why would I stop?

Besides, for all I know it could be linked to my ability as a doctor (after VitR's role name, I'm not ruling out any form of mod bastardry).

[foolinc]

It seems like LML may have been part of a scumteam, because it appeared he had a motivation to make stuff up even after caught. He also appeared to try to end the day quickly before he made any more mistakes which could only mean he was worried about giving away his partners. I doubt he'd put Pookypartner in such a bad spot, so it's unlikely they're aligned. His cop claim looks like BS, just like his rambling about doc protects.

This doesn't make an sense. Marcus Wesson (the real life version) worked alone, so it makes no sense whatever for him to be paired up with anyone. But I'm going to bite. If he was a scum team, who do you think are apart of it MBL?

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

It's called the filter button, I suggest you use it.

Tag fixed. - Mod

[foolinc]

Does anyone find the comment in LML's death about having a device that openeda secret passage from his room to the servant's quarters weird?

Foolinc made a TERRIBLE choice of protect, that is, if he's a doc. Need to see your condorcet pronto, bud, with explanations.

It's called the filter button, I suggest you use it.

No, I understand that your top suspect yesterday was Mr. Grey and your most trusted was LML. And that VitR was high on your list. I'd like to know where you stand after the night's events.

(As for LML's possible scumteam, I need to review his interactions, but his behavior in isolation pointed to a strategy beyond self-interest.)

I voted for Mr. Grey because voting Tali, who I still think is scummy, wasn't going anywhere.

VitR wasn't high on my list. He's in the middle of it.

Also, I read up on Marcus Wesson and he claimed he DIDN'T work alone. He claimed his family members performed most of the murders before killing themselves.

I realize that he tried to claim that the family members killed themselves, but a ton of serial killers try to come up with lies to keep them out of jail. The truth was that he worked alone.

[foolinc]

An SK would selfhammer because he was upset and angry.

Why do you want to know?

Ok, now think about the purpose of a self hammer. Is it anger, or to limit information to help partners?

Am I mistaken in the purpose of a selfhammer?

There are three possibilites:
1. To limit the damage
2. Just to screw with the rest of the players (aka because he was pissed off)
3. He really believed that it was a scum led wagon and sac himself for the town.

[foolinc]

#3 doesn't make sense.

Never said all the possiblities were equal. Choice 3 only makes sense if you believe what LML said about his role is true.

[foolinc]

Nope still doesn't.

Why doesn't make sense?

[foolinc]

I am with Pooky on not liking CES' "You guys got lucky" comment. It seperates us from him, us being the majority of the players. Even if I was 100% certain that LML was town and was completely against lynching him and defended him the whole way to no avail and he came up town, I would say "We got lucky." not "You guys got lucky." So I dont buy that defense.

vote CES

I'm not sold on this thinking at all. This is the LACE argument all over again. There is a possibility lightning with strike twice, but I'm going to need to see something more meaningful than this.

[foolinc]

The only person who really clearly expressed "I'm voting LmL because his response to this whole issue is what's scummy" is DP. Plus points for him, in retrospect. If you look at the actual people who laid down votes on them, most of them gave little to no real reasoning,

Huh? What about when he got caught in a lie - did you miss that part?!? You are

definitely

on my condorcet today.

Also, in post 1128 when I added Lee to my condorcet I said that I was suspicious because of the lace thing but

it was his reactions that were cementing my suspicions

. I meant this is a general way. He wasn't acting innocent.

This is not a vote yet, just the beginnings of forming a condorcet:
Vote: Gaspar, Logisticus, IH

What lie are you talking about? If you are talking about the LACE thing, it looks like it wasn't a lie at all. Was there something else I am forgetting?

[foolinc]

I do want to add that there is a chance he daykilled Xyzzy. But that would mean LML was telling the truth about his one shots and had a day vig.

[foolinc]

Lee was trying to tell us that he uses the word "lace" commonly. He does not. He tried to present 'proof', that wasn't. These things didn't prove that he killed xyyzy, but they showed that he was not on the level.

This is flawed logic. Just because he couldn't find a time on the internet he use the word that was good enough for you and Pooky, doesn't mean he doesn't use it in his everyday life. And since every sign points to him not being able to poison people, LML must be telling the truth about using the word.

[foolinc]

The last sentence sounds wrong. There is a chance that LML was not telling the truth about using that word regularly, but it doesn't matter because it doesn't look like he use it to kill Xyzzy.

[foolinc]

Kinda sounds like it's possible he could be in league with Villefort. Could anyone who is familiar with the story comment on this, please?

Read the freaking book or the free online Cliff Notes and get familiar with the book yourself.

[foolinc]

MBL. Cubs claimed what his action would do on scum, or probably I would guess mafia.

Now look at Thesp's alignment, and look at LML's alignment.

I was actually just thinking about this last night.

There is a also the possibility that LML really did have two lives. I'm not sold on the other stuff, but giving the SK an extra life seems like a good idea to balance the game.

[foolinc]

Some random thoughts from Sarc:

- Logicticus is suspicious

Mind telling us why? Maybe direct us to a post you you find scummy so the rest of us don't have to guess?

- I'm not a huge fan of Gaspar's FoS of Setael. It just seems kind of random and lame.

I don't know. Not assuming LML that what apart of the same scum group as Thesp is pretty weird IMO. I don't think it's a huge deal now that Setael gave her reasoning for assuming that way, though.

- Jeff Francis shall lead the Colorado Rockies to World Series glory (if you can call anything to do with baseball glorious), because he is Canadian

I'm hoping the Rockies hot streak can hold out. Going 21-1 to get to the World Series is amazing.

[foolinc]

- Moved up Pooky and logicticus because of LACE 2.0 situation.

-I'm also still weary of the stuborness of Pooky during the whole LML Lace thing. His convictions didn't seem logical considering all the questionable variables involved.

- MBL moves up after rereading his posts. I find that his 26th post seems too strong and his 33rd post is very interesting considering VitR's was nightnkilled.

- I'm also still ok with a Mr. Grey lynch, espically since LML came up as a role that doesn't look like could have made a daykill.

Vote: PookyTheMagicalBear,

MrBuddyLee, Mr. Grey, Talitha, [Tamuz, logicticus, Setael], [Dragon Phoenix, Sarcastro], [Gaspar, Zindaras, IH], no lynch, foolinc

[foolinc]

My convictions?

Did you see me want to lynch LoudMouthLee before he went selfdestructo in the game?

Did you even see me propose a lynch of Lee?

No and that's kind of the point. I could understand if you were suspicious of him the whole game and the LACE stuff was the straw that broke the camels back. However, your whole basis was the LACE argument.

P.S give me a good reason why we should hit Mr. Grey for our lynch given that he's yet to make a daykill on day 4.

He showed in the voting up the moment of the Xzzyz day kill. It a gut reasoning, but I really don't like the fact we can't ask him questions either. He's basically perma-lurking.

How often do you think GreyDaySK kills?

I have no idea how often GreyDaySK kills.

[foolinc]

Do you believe the rate of the daykills indicates that we are dealing with a daykilling SK moderator?

No. What I am saying is that it's a good enough possiblity that we need to consider it. I also said that I won't mind him as a lynch, not that it was optimal. I still can't answer the question of why he showed up right after the daykill.

Edit: IH might have indirectly come up with an answer for this question:

6.Mr. Grey will be lynched, and somebody else will become an incarnation of dante.

I find the 6th the most unlikely, and any of the first five to be on equal terms.

It's a bit farfetched, but if this is how it works, then maybe Cubs actually thought he was Dante because he was possessed by the spirit of Dante, was the active incarnation of Dante, or something along those lines. Then when he was lynched, Dantes spirit was moved on too Mr. Grey, making him a votable player. That would also explain how he had the dueling power a lot better than his role in real life was a boxer as a young man.

My whole basis for what? Did you think I wanted him to be lynched at the beginning of my attack on him or not?

Going from your first post:

What caused you to capitalize Xyzzy's name in that instance?

What caused you to capitalize the word lace?

don't play us for fools, it could be easily possible that your poisoning ability is a one shot thing.

You like the word lace? Cite one instance of youu using that word in that context before using it to describe what you would do to Skruffs.

I'm very concerned about this "coincidence"

From this post, in my own opinion, I feel that you have already passed judgment on Lee and that no matter what he did to defend himself, you were going to find a reason so that it wasn't good enough. Which actually happened when Lee linked us to his old blog.

Foolinc - What specifically makes you think that LML couldn't have made a day kill? I'm really curious because it's not obvious to me.

1. Wesson's real life actions suggest, to me anyway, that he wouldn't be able to daykill. He didn't use poison nor did he kill in the open.
2. I feel that LML reaction was more of a "I can't believe I'm going to be lynched for some incorrect reason" than "I can't believe I got caught." I also think that an experienced player like LML would have put up a better defense if that was how the kill was going to be made.

IMO, if LML was the killer, then we must consider LML claim of having multiple one shots as truth.

[foolinc]

Based on where I'm at so far, players most likely to be scum are DP, foolinc, and IH with Oman as a possibility but that's not as solid. Not going to vote until I've finished the thread.

Unvote

I don't know how Oman could be just a possibility if you believe IH is scum. Could you explain this a bit more for me?

Total side note: It looks like the nine games off cooled the Rockies off.

[foolinc]

- Moved up Pooky and logicticus because of LACE 2.0 situation.

Please elaborate. What exactly do you think about this?

Tag corrected. - Mod

I didn't like the fact that Pooky and logicticus making a big deal out of the "you guys got lucky" comment, which actually was correct as well as "we got lucky" in that situation because:

1. We all got lucky that we lynched the NK on what seems to be false pretenses
2. The group that wanted LML dead got lucky because if they were wrong, they would have been on the chopping block.

It also reminded me of the lace argument, which it looks like we "mis-lynched based on the proof given for the lynch" (obviously the outcome wasn't a mislynch though ).

Truth be told, this working into my vote probably looks like a bigger impact than it really did because I was already very suspicious of Pooky to begin with.

[foolinc]

I'm not going to lie. I screwed up this night. My real life has hit a busy patch because my professors seem to want have their exam and papers due on the same day. I protected the person lowest on the voting lists, Zindaras. Why didn't I protect logicticus? Because I'm an idiot who didn't think things through.

Though I'm suspious why you think logicticus is a lier? And if I am not who I say I'm please explain why there was only one night kill when LML was alive?

Oh and so I don't forget: faked.

[foolinc]

Well, that was interesting. Question to Zindaras - what the

fuck

was that? Yeah, how about we

don't

try to lynch people at the last second before they're even given the opportunity to claim? I know it sounds a little crazy, but I really think it could work.

What is this, Foolinc, the second time you've claimed to have made a mistake in your protection?

Well since I only stopped someone from being lynched twice, I'd say I make three mistakes.

[foolinc]

I meant once not twice.

[foolinc]

I also want you to explain again exactly why you use your secret word every game day. It seems odd considering that no-one else has thought that this is necessary, or if they have they certainly haven't drawn attention to it.

Superstition. And please answer this question. If I was scum, what would be the reasoning for me doing what I am doing?

And I'm positive I've already said this in a post before.

[foolinc]

Knew I've answer this question before.

I don't get it, Foolinc. Is there some kind of requirement that you have to say your secret word every day? Did I miss something?

I'm looking at it this way. I've used it every day and nothing bad has happened because of it. So why would I stop?

Besides, for all I know it could be linked to my ability as a doctor (after VitR's role name, I'm not ruling out any form of mod bastardry).

[foolinc]

I think foolinc might have been recruited by the mafia. That could explain the mentioning of all the characters early on (trying to signal the mafia?), and why he is still alive now. I have asked about this before and only got a snarky reply, but

would that fit with the doctor character in the book???

Someone must be familiar with the story, please speak up.

Foolinc, could you please list all of your night choices in one post?

Night 1: LML
Night 2: LML
Night 3: Gaspar
Night 4: Zindaras

[foolinc]

TSS: What a load of baloney.

Just for starters -

When I am talking about hypotheticals to illustrate a point, HOW does does that translate into me making assumptions???

I DON'T know that the scum have abilities. I know that the SCUM KNOW if they have abilities, and THAT was the POINT.

Furthermore I have been scum in many games and I challenge anyone to find a game where I slipped up and mentioned how many scum were in my group, or did anything REMOTELY like that.

Besides, I was under the impression we were assuming there were four scum. Am I wrong?

I'm getting the same sort of vibes from this post as LML's posts in response to the lace argument. Maybe it's just the all caps words, but something seems odd to me.

[foolinc]

I just thought some more about the foolinc business. I don't believe the mafia would keep him alive if he was a doc, even if they had a roleblocker.. why would they want to waste their role-block night after night if they could just kill him? He's an un-counterclaimed doctor, so there's no guarantee that he would get lynched anytime real soon.

Doctor d'Avrigny: This is the doctor who attends to the many "sicknesses" in the Villefort household. He is adamant that the deaths are due to poison, yet he does not reveals his suspicions to the public at Villefort's request.

Monsieur de Villefort: Monsieur de Villefort is the public prosecutor of Marseilles who was responsible for Dantes' incarceration. Much to Villefort's chagrin, Villefort's father was a known Bonapartist, thus his policy for Bonapartist conspirators was harsh. He sought to protect his own name. He succeeds in becoming the public prosecutor in Paris. His first marriage is one that is politically advantageous. He has one daughter by that marriage, Valentine. He also has a son by his second marriage. Monte Cristo ruins Villefort at Calvacanti's trial. Calvacanti reveals that his father, Villefort, buried him as a newborn baby. He was saved by Bertuccio who had been spying on Villefort waiting for an opportunity to seek revenge on him. Villefort had failed to seek out the man who had killed Bertuccio's brother. Villefort is thus ruined. His wife also poisons his daughter, son, and herself. He becomes crazy.

foolinc is the best lead right now. Moving SL down slightly, due to previously unconsidered foolinc factor. Adding other players I am most wary of.

unvote
vote: foolinc

, Gaspar, Sarcastro, Silent Lee, IH

Could you please take the time to read at least the cliff note summaries before trying to reference the book in any way. To put it in mafia terms Doctor d'Avrigny in the book was town.

[foolinc]

Interesting fact: Thesp never says

anything

about whether he thinks Zindaras is scum. He mentions Zindaras a few times in passing and asks him a couple questions, but he never actually gives an opinion on him, while keeping him in the middle of his Condorcet list. I don't know if Thesp is likely to act this way towards his partners or what, I just thought it beared mentioning. I should have more posted from my Thesp-read fairly soon.

This is a very interesting point. However, the fact that this is the result of Pooky basically spoon feeding you this information is also very interesting:

Ok sarc, if you don't know what to do, I'll give you an asssignment, I expect this to be done by the next 36 hours.

examine closely Thesp's posts and Thesp's condorcet lists.

analyze them given the information we have right now and come up with some probability spreads for where scum fall in hsi condorcet lists.

[foolinc]

You want to do the assignment too foolinc?

you don't seem to be busy with anything at the moment other than tossing around vague suspicions and not really doing much of anything.

Commit to something

Believe Something.

Do Something.

Care about something.

Well I was going to vote for you (again) after my post, but I wanted to see your reaction to the point. Now that I've have...

Vote: Pooky

[foolinc]

I simply just do not believe that foolinc is a vanilla pro-town doctor, with nothing more to the role. Sorry.

What about this game tells you differently? We've had a good number of power roles, but we've also had normal townies as well.

In other news, I'm kind of disappointed my Wolverines lost, but the OSU loss cushions the blow.

[foolinc]

I'm just looking at the numbers... I think it's time to really start thinking hard about how many scum we have vs how many players left alive.

We have 10 players alive. (I think it was) Foolinc (who) pointed out early in the game that a mafia group of four certain characters would make sense.. then one of those characters died and was revealed as a member of the mafia. So his theory is looking good. Also, a four person mafia group would seem about right for a game of this size. So, I think it would be best to assume that we have 3 allied scum alive. Then there is the possibility that the Dr D'Vrigny was recruited (instead of a kill on night 1?), or that he's always been a scumbag, but didn't know the identity of the other mafia members, or something like that.
So, best case 3, worst case 4.
If we are in the worst case, and we lynch wrong today, we go to night woth 9 players... a kill overnight seals the victory for the scum.
So, am I making myself clearer as to why I think foolinc is the best choice? If he's not scum, we get another day. If he is scum, we're in lynch-wrong-lose.

Pooky has been acting like it's lynch-wrong-lose (which really scares me) yet he's not voting for foolinc. This is one of the reasons I am getting surer about Pooks being scum.

I could be persuaded to vote for Pooks or Gaspar today if I can't get support on foolinc. I understand why foolinc inst a completely attactive option. It's logical to want to try and lynch one of the three, rather than someone who we know definitely isn't one of the three. I am just concerned about lynching wrong if foolinc is scum with the three.

I'm not sure why I would be considered the best choice. If I was scum, the town would kill scum and everything would be fine. But if I am who I say I am (and I am the good Doctor) we not only lose a townie, but also the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie.

[foolinc]

I didn't say vig.... someone else said vig.

I said another killing group.

Ok, once more. Last time.

Let's assume Fool is scum and in contact with his buddies. Surely, they know that the majority of the town believes Log's claim. They know that Fool has claimed doctor, and that he will be expected to protect, right? So, if Fool is actually NOT a doctor (or is a scum doctor) why would they implicate their own member?

On second thought there are other possibilities, though I'm unsure how much more likely they are. Like Fool is a traitor, that there are scum that didn't think it through, or there are scum that are trying to get their on buddy lynched by way of bussing.

If neither of those three are true, then it means that either there is A.Another killing group (Second SK, Vig, second Scumgroup, etc etc) B.Fool is town who seriously didn't protect logictus last night.

Further more, Foolinc HAS to be Parisian mafia for any of this to make sense, since if he's part of a second group, then the Parisian could have done the kill. I repeat. Only for this to MAKE SENSE.

If Foolinc does turn up scum though (especially doc scum), I would say that Zindy is his partner. Why? Because he protected Zindy. I have a feeling, from what I would do as a scum doc, that he is telling the truth of his target, mostly from fear of a tracker or something of the like. Therefore, if he is indeed protecting a buddy last night from some type of kill, then that would be Zindaras.

Understand?

I'm a normal townie doctor who did not protect logictus. That's it. Nothing more. However, I am going to note that you are trying to connect me with Zindy with this "what if I was scum post."

I'd also like you to explain what makes you think there is the 3rd killing group?