Royal Family Mafia - Game Over!

[HackerHuck]

I'm going to twist Thok's logic to suit me better.

Vote: LuckayLuck

for rhyming with HackerHuck.

[HackerHuck]

Vote:TheEyeOfMordor

Is that a random vote or do you purport to have some inside knowledge we all should know about?

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure I understand why Ether and LuckayLuck are claiming others to be town so early in the game. There haven't been too many substantive posts and no one has yet appeared to be in danger of lynch. Where does that certainty come from and why make a case of it now? If there's some inside knowledge involved, that exposes some power roles early. It just strikes me as odd...

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure I understand why Ether and LuckayLuck are claiming others to be town so early in the game.

I'm what?

Well, I wish I had a decent answer for this one. I've reread a couple of times now and I don't know what the hell I was talking about. I only see Luckay making such claims.

My apologies to the songstress

[HackerHuck]

Luckay, please confirm my understanding of your logic behind Bogre being scum.

1. Ether is town
2. The Ether bandwagon is the "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" and it consisted of these votes (in order of placement): SilentSpeaker, IH, Bogre, Fritzler, CES, Canucklehead
3. One (and only one) voter on the "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" is scum.
4. Fourth vote is not scum (Clears Fritzler)
5. IH is not scum
6. Between SilentSpeaker and Bogre, you fancy Bogre as scum.

Assuming the above is correct, I have a few questions.
Do your numbers apply to games of all sizes or do you scale it accordingly?
Why are you so certain of Ether's innocence? Is it her singing or your spreadsheet?
Same question about IH, except for the singing.
Why no mention of CES? He should be one of your options unless he's considered town.
"Can we vote for the silent speaker now?" was posted twice in closing your posts and now you've flipped over to Bogre. That's the explanation I'm most curious about now. Why is Bogre suddenly more suspicious than SilentSpeaker?

[HackerHuck]

I have to pipe up now that I've finally had a chance to catch up.

I'm actually happy with my vote on Luckay, so I'll officially say it's no longer random. I guess the proper protocol is

Confirm vote: Luckay Luck

I don't have a problem with his townie tells or his scum tests or any of his conclusions - I don't understand his reasoning, so I've pretty much ignored it.
What I don't really like is his "selling" of this information. He's much like those late night adverts - "make millions on the stock market using my simple program!" We put a bunch of information in the "magic box", turn the crank and out comes all the right answers. If it really works, it makes no sense to share the "wealth". It's only a useful tool when we're 100% certain that he's pro-town. What happens when LL is playing for the other team? Does his insight disappear or does he give us the wrong information? He would also know how to fool the "magic box", since he knows what will trigger townie tells.

In a nutshell, trying to convince others to follow you because your "system" tells you is very bad for the town. It gives you too much of an excuse for when you're wrong and it really gives the rest of the town nothing to go on.

[HackerHuck]

Royal family

It's only up to you how serious you take his findings. This is like someone giving us insights to who they think is suspicious is scummy, because they're "selling" information. LuckayLuck hasn't really tried to get us to follow his system, has he? The most he's pushed for is to defend people he thinks are town.

I don't disagree that it's up to others to believe whether he's right or not, but your second statement is not an accurate comparison. Let me go back to my late-night advert example for you.

Luckay is acting like this:

I input this security into my machine and it gives me a red lamp or a green light letting me know whether to buy or sell! When I plugged in "Widgets Inc." it gives me a green light, so it must be a buy!

What you say above about providing insight would be more like this:

My machine looks at the various metrics of a security and makes a determination of whether to buy or sell. Based on it's low P/E, a strong buyback program, and consistently beating earnings estimates, my machine rates it a buy!

That kind of information would be useful to the town, not just - I looked at all these names and I realised that Jack is scum!

Now, I'm not against anyone using their own playstyle/mechanics in a game, but Luckay is starting to get into the place where if you say something often enough, others begin to take it as the truth. He's also just not making much sense when he does try and give some reasons.

Just looking at his multiple posts, he's done a number of things that would tap into my scumdar if he had a more mundane playstyle - Vote Hopping, unexplained defence of others, insinuation of inside information, etc... Discounting all that for his playstyle, the fact that he's been dominating the conversation with his beliefs (again with nothing for us to go on but his word) makes me feel that he would be a safe lynch. i.e. There's a chance he's scum and if not, if he's a regular townie then it's not a big loss. On the plus side, he has brought out a lot of early game discussion.

I would also say that Luckay has tried to push his agenda. Publishing that spreadsheet wasn't just defending people he felt to be town.

......You don't think that blindly following is scummy? It's not a good play for town, (unless you have something concrete), but I think it could be mildly scummy to follow blindly. That way if their logic turns up wrong, you have a way out of not taking any responsibility. 'It was their idea!"

This sums up how I feel about Luckay and his "machine".

STD - Do you feel I've answered your question as well?

[HackerHuck]

Alright, now for my obvious pro-town tell!

What does the '<3' mean? In all seriousness, I've seen it a few times now and I can't figure it out.

[HackerHuck]

So STD loves Twito? I'm even more confused.

[HackerHuck]

I wouldn't call it a valid reason personally, although one could accuse him of trying to cloud the real issues.

Of all the reasons to vote for Canucklehead, this seems unbelievably scummy. Do you have anything else you're basing your vote on?

FOS: CES

[HackerHuck]

this town is making me sad. I wanna jump off a cliff.

Does your role give you change to take someone with you when you jump? PLEASE TAKE ME!
(no I'm not fishing for his role don't even start with that shit)

I have actually played in a game with a role like that.

I'm not sure I like how you're showing an independent streak and abandoning your fealty to LL.

[HackerHuck]

You consider the question of "who would you lynch, right now, if the decision were yours and yours alone?" a time waster?

Well...we could just, you know,

VOTE

for people.

QFT


I really don't see how this will accomplish consensus and save us time. If everyone provided a list of their top two/three scum, that might narrow it down to a few suspects that most people have on their list, rather than the broad group we'll get if everyone just puts out one name.

Besides, who wants to join the group if you're going to let the scum join too?

My top two are LL and CES.

[HackerHuck]

@ IH : Why did you FOS HackerHuck for suggesting that everyone posts their top 2 or 3 suspects?...It seems that he is suggesting the same thing as Pooky just suggested (in a more straight forward way of course) and you followed the whole Pooky idea?

Thanks for repeating Ether!

nah, seriously though. I've seen Pooky make a proposal like this before. (Cites Open 6, Nightless) He's asked questions/made proposals like this before, so I answered, but I see red flags when someone just asks for it.

Not only that, Hackerhuck and Jack both refused to answer the questions, but supported everyone listing who their top 2 suspects were.

"Forming a coalition is stupid, but answer that last one for us anyways"

Wow, I get an FOS because I don't answer the useless questions at the front of the list, but I do answer the only relevant question asked. How am I trying to see which way the wind blows when I actually posted who I thought my top two were?

Please note that I had already "answered" Pooky's final question by having a no-longer-random vote on someone.

My top three are now

LL, IH, and CES

[HackerHuck]

....Err, I phrased that wrong.

"Why would I try to find that information, when I already put down mine!"

A convenient breeze through other's posts, and your suspicion changes. I will get off your back if you explain your top three suspicions though. That is all.

Err, you still phrased it wrong. Since you'll get off my back for explaining my reasons, I won't make you go back and find my earlier posts.

I have a vote on Luckay and I placed an FOS on CES, so I have been open with my suspicion on those two. That said, I'm waiting for the wind to blow before I change my mind. I'll probably also decide my day two lynch target today after everyone tells me who their top two scum are. That way I'll be first on the bandwagon and indisputably prove my townhood.

LuckayLuck

. I don't think his playstyle has been helpful to the town. See post 305 He seems to have softened a bit lately; however, my vote still stands on him.

CES

. I really don't like how he voted for Canucklehead, admitted he had no valid reason and then never pulled his vote. See posts 376 and 377

IH

. You misrepresented my actions - bolded text in this post

Thanks for repeating Ether!

nah, seriously though. I've seen Pooky make a proposal like this before. (Cites Open 6, Nightless) He's asked questions/made proposals like this before, so I answered, but I see red flags when someone just asks for it.

Not only that, Hackerhuck and Jack both refused to answer the questions, but supported everyone listing who their top 2 suspects were.

"Forming a coalition is stupid, but answer that last one for us anyways"

and I don't like how you call me out as potential scum for doing basically the same thing as Pooky (which you happily followed along with even though my idea was two or three times better).

[HackerHuck]

I'll answer 7) with Canuckle.

*grins* Feeling a little closed mouthed lately Maz? I've asked you two or three times to explain yourself, and that's allllll you can say.

Confirm Vote: Maz Medias

I explained myself when I voted for you. If you're too lazy to change pages, you don't deserve my conversation.

As annoying as Maz can be, he is right in this case. When I did my last reread, I spotted two places where he explained his actions. I would say the ball's in your court now.

Vote: Canucklehead17

for blatantly trying to set up a 1-2 mislynch.

Oh, let me further explain my vote on you, Canucklescum.

You were blatantly attempting to set up a 1-2 mislynch on Jack-->LL. Rather than defending yourself when I called you on it, you dismissed the attack via ad homming about my post count. You then dropped the argument completely.

Later, you attributed a quote to me when I was not the one who said it, and again never mentioned it again once I pointed that out.

You are evasive, deflective, clueless, transparent, and deserve to die.

[HackerHuck]

I just read everything since page 2.. All I got is a headache.

QFT


OK, I didn't go back as far as page two, but this page alone makes my head hurt. If the system crashes again, I'm going to blame it on IH, Maz and Canuckle.

[HackerHuck]

Wow, I didn't realise the discussion my comment would bring out. While it's very interesting to see how everyone interpretreted it, I'll shed some light on what I really meant.

Yes, I didn't really understand what Pooky was trying to do and I have never played with him before. I also can't be bothered to look at any of his previous games, so I was just looking at his post as an unbiased observer. To me, he was saying: "This is going to take us forever to find scum if we just keep at it the way we have been. I'm going to help get the ball rolling and set up a questionnaire that will get everyone to tell us who their top suspect is."

I was surprised at the overall enthusiasm in joining Pooky's club. Like Maz, I didn't see the point in the first six questions, but the last one was obviously important. I also agreed with Jack that asking question seven was rather pointless since our votes should be answer enough.

My main point was that if Pooky really wanted to get the ball rolling, it makes sense to ask for a top two or three, since our votes already answered number seven and repeating them won't do anything to further discussion.

I'm still not following IH's logic for why asking for two or three versus the one suspect is scummier. To me, putting out more names will draw additional scrutiny versus allowing someone to simply follow the crowd with the leading wagon.

As to MoS' concerns. If my comments were scummy, I don't see why Pooky's wouldn't be scummy as well.

[HackerHuck]

@Mariyta: I don't think he's serious. How could he be? You're still just saying it's scummy and not why it's scummy.

Because his blatant refusal to post his own thoughts takes all the blame off him and puts it squarely on LL's shoulders. If he lynchs a townie due to his blindness, he doesn't have to take any responsibility.

That's true, but if Twito's scum and LL isn't, he may end up offing one of his scum pals or his separation from LL will be obvious. I agree that he's not being very helpful to the town, but I think we're better off nabbing someone that really looks scummy.


I haven't seen a reasonable explanation from CES regarding his vote on Canucklehead. I know he hasn't had a chance to pull his vote based on Canuckle's claim, but I'm more concerned with why he placed that vote.

Unvote
Vote: Cogito Ergo Sum

[HackerHuck]

I'm still not getting the wagon on Bogre, he just hasn't made any posts for us to tell. He should be on the neutral list according to LL, as he hasn't gotten a read, but he's siding with him being scum.

Why not Jack, if he's the other person on your suspicions LL? You don't feel like voting for him? You should be able to get a better read on him since he's posted. I find it curious that you are focusing on Bogre instead of Jack...

There is a "theorum" that explains why Bogre is scum...

Silent Speaker,

So... not random, then. Unvote: Ether, vote: Canucklehead.

This looks mafia-ish.


Also, you were the first vote on Ether, who at the time of my suspicion, had the highest bandwagon. The "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" theorem dictates that there is usually exactly one mafia on the first 4-vote wagon on day1, and the 4th vote is not a mafia. IH is townie, and Ether is townie, thus: it's either you or Bogre.

FOS: Bogre

P.S. I'm a nut, but not crazy

I asked LL for clarification on this theorum since it seems to draw more than a few conclusions, but I got no response.

Luckay, please confirm my understanding of your logic behind Bogre being scum.

1. Ether is town
2. The Ether bandwagon is the "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" and it consisted of these votes (in order of placement): SilentSpeaker, IH, Bogre, Fritzler, CES, Canucklehead
3. One (and only one) voter on the "first day first wave mafia bandwagon" is scum.
4. Fourth vote is not scum (Clears Fritzler)
5. IH is not scum
6. Between SilentSpeaker and Bogre, you fancy Bogre as scum.

Assuming the above is correct, I have a few questions.
Do your numbers apply to games of all sizes or do you scale it accordingly?
Why are you so certain of Ether's innocence? Is it her singing or your spreadsheet?
Same question about IH, except for the singing.
Why no mention of CES? He should be one of your options unless he's considered town.
"Can we vote for the silent speaker now?" was posted twice in closing your posts and now you've flipped over to Bogre. That's the explanation I'm most curious about now. Why is Bogre suddenly more suspicious than SilentSpeaker?

[HackerHuck]

Great googly moogly!
Deadline is tomorrow and I'm in dire need of a vote count!
Can the glorious chef

Cardinal Ibelly

tally and post the votes for us?
I would also like confirmation on how many votes are required to lynch at deadline. Someone said seven at one point.

[HackerHuck]

Agreed. Shoot Jack.

Wait, why am I entertaining this bullshit?

Your directing of the vig - er pumpkin - actions has been noted.

[HackerHuck]

Just wanted to pop up and let everyone know I'm back.

I don't really get the momentum behind the Jack lynch, so I'm actually in agreement with STD and Fritzler there. I think I'll need to reread yesterday's events in order to catch up properly.

Regarding the portcullis and the other exit, I think that the royal family would be best helped by escaping.

[HackerHuck]

Woah. I was wondering if I should elaborate on what was wrong with post 709 and all of that, but the wagon's going fast anyway.

Damn

this feels easy.

Well, for tomorrow. Canuckle, I know what conclusion I drew from 709 (and 726). You do realize what that conclusion hinges on, right?

Forgive me if I appear a bit dense here, but I'm not seeing the smoking gun against Arafax. Jack made some good points, but I just don't understand what has pushed this wagon to lynch-2 so fast.

I prefer an IH lynch, but I could be persuaded to join the Arafax wagon if I see some convincing evidence.

[HackerHuck]

Unvote, Vote: Arafax

FOR OUR LORD!

I guess that's the sound that dropping the Mjolnir makes, whatever the hell it's supposed to be...

[HackerHuck]

I wish Maz hadn't gotten in the way of the investigation and I'm very surprised that he claimed some kind of night action.

I don't see what he said/did as being any type of role blocker, but that he was doing something to IH himself - Canuckle stated that he was in IH's quarters.

Regardless, I'm for an IH lynch now.

Vote: IH

[HackerHuck]

Could someone explaine C-heads lack of result and Maz's comment to me?

gosraOGIUAEWNOGANWGEOWAUQGENOUAWgeongOUwegounweuogqeognueqwougralajdsAENOFEWNloew

naoiewrgh roin;hea noirheaqoijgr anolaernjiorge

SRENIGOWVRNMOPIEWGFnowerg NOISWENOIeFWG

That is how I feel right now.

Doesn't that clearly state that Maz implied he's a roleblocker who RBed Canuckle?

You know, the cop who claimed day one so we have plenty of times to catch him in a lie if he's lying and if he's telling the truth it would be nice to have all his investigations?

Ether, I'll take a hug. And maybe some cyanide.

Do you think that Maz is trying to protect or implicate Canuckle in some way? Why would he then admit to it? That doesn't make much sense considering Canuckle cleared Maz for us. What exactly were you trying to say?

[HackerHuck]

Opps, didn't catch your post STD.

[HackerHuck]

Arrggghhh!

Not even Ether's singing can get that out of my head...

Unvote:IH
Vote: Mod

...sleeping on my pillow

[HackerHuck]

Finally got my head cleared of all that mess. IH is definitely scummier than Neil Diamond.

Unvote:
Vote: IH

Ah, well I needed a third. Forgot.

Throw hackerhuck in there, I remember being suspicious of him.

It's always nice to be someone's afterthought...

[HackerHuck]

I could bite on a CES wagon since he was in my top three, but I don't see it going any better than the IH wagon.

[HackerHuck]

Now that I think about it, this is a serious question. How many scum do we think we have? The King and Queen, thats two obviously. The jester is three, the prince made four. In THAT ONE SCUMGROUP, how many do you think there is?

BTW guys, scum would obviously know how many scum there are!

If you read post one, you're obviously missing the prince and the princess. The two scum we've caught weren't even in that list.

Technically that's a wifom statement Luckay, because scum could be trying to gambit along that they aren't paying attention to their wagon.

BTW guys, scum wouldn't contradict someone defending them.

My head's spinning now! Way to build the subtle wifom defense!

[HackerHuck]

Twito was the prince btw.

Twito was the "lost" prince. Being lost, I doubt he was the one mentioned in the first post.

[HackerHuck]

Luckay, what's the spreadsheet say now? It doesn't seem like you've really updated it since day one.

[HackerHuck]

I like CES of the two. His strange D1 vote on Canuckle and overall wagonning don't strike me as too town.

Unvote: IH
Vote: CES

[HackerHuck]

....I wonder if Zindaras wa sa survivor...

Not trying to be dense, but how does that relate to our current position? Aren't survivors independent?

[HackerHuck]

Of course it's the truth

he has lovely eyes.

Pooky was innocent one my first night's investigation, so I would like to trust that he's actually got something here. My only fear is that my sanity might not be straight yet, as I haven't gotten a guilty return on any player. IH, I've soooo GMEOY.

unvote, vote: Thok

HoS: Jack

Just a reminder, but Pooky's innocence doesn't make him right. It just means that he won't be deliberately sending us down the wrong path.

We still have a ways to go before deadline, so I don't really like how Luckay's pushing for a lynch. Especially now that he's abandoned the spreadsheet of doom.

[HackerHuck]

I was going to move my vote to IH in order to get us over the hump for the deadline, but I'm starting to waver a little. I'm having a tough time reconciling his interest in a case against LL when LL has been defending him so strongly.

It's time for me to reevaluate my original case against IH.

[HackerHuck]

Hackerhuck, I believe the original case was trying to setup a 1-2 mislynch because I thought Canuckle had investigated Jack, and I said something along the lines of "After we lynch Jack, if he comes up innocent, we can lynch Canuckle"

I unfortunately hadn't read Canuckles post close enough...

I do find it strange though that Canuckle was scared to inspect Jack n1, but not afraid to inspect me n2.....

Are you trying to save me the effort of a reread?

[HackerHuck]

Vote:C-head

Enough of this nonsense. Seriously dude what gives. You investigated maz after claiming so this "scared off bit" can't be a mafia roleblocker. What aren't you telling us?

He investigated Luckay last night and Maz night one. He got an innocent on Maz, so he's not insane. Maz was an odd choice for the scum to off, since it does tend to backup C-Head's claim.

Vote: Jack

My reasons are the same as VitaminR. No reason to vote the claimed cop at this point.

[HackerHuck]

hmm I guess maz did say he disrupted c-head that last time. So he isn't making it up. C-head just expresses himself weird. I don't see why maz would do whatever to LL though.

unvote, Vote:VitaminR

I still think you're scummy.

Canuckle, you've been quite certain that Jack was scummy and "almost" investigated him before. Why did you pick Luckay over Jack last night?

[HackerHuck]

I'd be happy with a Jack lynch at this point. He's been the second option for a while (when we know the first options-IH and Arafax) have been town. And it seems his only scum hunting technique right now is "Vote scummy looking people on my bandwagon and deny I've done anything"; Best-wosrt case scenario he's a completely useless protown player.

What's your scum hunting technique been, hypocrite?

I still think VitaminR is scum, but this post doesn't look good either. "he's been the 2nd option for a while" "if he's townie he's useless" are classic scum lines.

Unvote,Vote:Thok

I will admit this looks a little fishy. If it would make you happy Thok, why not throw a vote on Jack?

[HackerHuck]

wasn't that hammah?

No

BM replaced Canuckle who was already voting for Jack. He just unvoted and revoted.

[HackerHuck]

Three days before I revote, so this better be good.

Unvote: Jack

[HackerHuck]

that was somewhat pointless considering how long we have gone without a hammer. if he was going to get bussed, he would have been by now.

Three days before I revote, so this better be good.

Unvote: Jack

You're right about it being pointless, but only because of Jack. I've seen enough stupid things happen in games to not want to risk it.

I don't think I need to wait any longer.

Vote: Jack

[HackerHuck]

Did you not read this exchange?

I can prove my innocence.

we're listening...

I'd rather not.

I may have misinterpreted him, but the three days was to make sure he had the chance to post. I didn't see what giving Jack another ten hours or so would have accomplished. I think at this point it's fairly obvious he's got no interest in giving us his defence, he's still only at lynch -1, so he still has a chance to change his mind.

[HackerHuck]

I would say that I disagree with Pooky's point regarding the order of the wording, because I can see how that does fit. Where I find a flaw is in the logic. It makes sense that we have a drawbridge keeper if we have a portcullis keeper, but I don't get the match between the name and the role. A watchman makes sense as a portcullis keeper, but the page makes no sense as a drawbridge keeper.

I also don't see the value in letting him prove his role. He told us that the drawbridge has been in the same position all game, so he can't be the only thing influencing it. Besides, I would think a drawbridge would have a winch/winding of some type, not a lever.

vote: MoS

[HackerHuck]

In addition to what's been said, I can't see a Lost Prince having a page, or any servants at all.

vote MOS

I believe that there's still the normal prince (from the setup scenes) out there who is different from Twito's role. That would imply we're up against four scum.

Actually in looking back at the opening setup, it seems that an open drawbridge might even be beneficial to the scum. Their lines of communication have been severed, so it's possible they need to be able to leave the castle in order to communicate. I could see how the page would be assisting the family in that way.

[HackerHuck]

I guess there are worse places to be than in jail. I might need a song from Ether to lift my spirits.

At least three scum left, and I'm too tired right now to put together my thoughts.

I know this seems a bit odd since we just came into day, but could we get a prod on Bogre? He hasn't posted since April 2nd.

[HackerHuck]

I'm no expert on balance, so I'm just looking at the information we've been given by the mod.

There are at least three - King, Queen, Princess. Each has been mentioned in the opening posts and active in the lynch scenes.

There have been a number of flavoured roles that don't have obvious (to me) powers, so I don't really see a reason to doubt the number of scum.

[HackerHuck]

I've got to apologise for my lack of participation thus far. I got behind in this game and it's been a nightmare trying to catch back up. I'm partway through a reread (I dumped this thread into Word and I'm at 210 of 359 pages) and so far I disagree with TSQ about Ether. In looking at her voting patterns, I'm pretty sure she's town. I'm leaning toward Bogre and Thok right now, but I want to finish this up before I put down any votes.

[HackerHuck]

Look how she sat on the fence against luckay luck still attacking him, while still poisoning the well against everyone else on the wagon.

That is where I first began to suspect her.

I haven't come across anything like this yet. Where would I find it?

[HackerHuck]

Looking at the lynches (starting with Arafax's).

The Official “That's a Lynch!” Vote Count!

Arafax – 11 – Save the Dragons, PookyTheMagicalBear, Fritzler, TheEyeofMordor, Cogito Ergo Sum, Ether, Jack, Canucklehead17, IH, VitaminR, Maz Medias

Pooky has been declared by Canuckle/BM to be for the revolution. Jack, Canuckle, TEOM(Occult), IH, VitaminR, and Maz have all been revealed as protown. That leaves STD, Fritzler, CES, and Ether on the lynch. We're pretty bad as townies if there are no scum on that lynch.

The Official “End of Day Three” Vote Count!

IH – 6 – Jack, Cogito Ergo Sum, Fritzler, TheEyeofMordor, Canucklehead17, Ether

unknowns on this lynch are CES, Fritzler, and Ether. it's possible that the scum avoided this lynch, since it went up to deadline at the minimum number of votes and the only other person close was Thok at three votes. Same list as for Arafax, but without STD.

The Official End of Day Vote Count!

Jack – 8 – Save The Dragons, Cogito Ergo Sum, PBug, Fritzler, Mastermind of Sin, Battle Mage, Hackerhuck, VitaminR

This one was pretty much unanimous. Jack was voting Thok, but everyone else was not voting. Unknowns are STD, CES, Fritzler, and me (town of course). We do know there was one scum on this list (MoS).

It's possible I'm wrong and that all of the scum (except MoS on Jack) have managed to avoid every lynch of a townie so far. I don't think it's likely, so I'm looking at my top suspects being STD, CES, Fritzler, and Ether.

Ether gets a pass from me because I think she's town. She actually flip-flops on Jack in what seems to be a townie manner. Pretty reasonable push for IH as scum, which is the one where I think the scum would have tried to avoid. Her biggest defense is the push for an MoS lynch before his time was up.

Fritzler hasn't drawn much of my attention, which is a pretty good scum tactic. I'm going to push him down a few notches on my list, since MoS made some weird case against him which seemed too crazy to be distancing.

STD avoided the one lynch I feel would have been avoided by scum. Other than that, he's been like Fritzler and hasn't stuck out much - except lately. Aside from the voting pattern, I have nothing to go on. I would like to see what everyone else has to say about why they think he's scum.

CES is my prime candidate. I got a bad feeling about him on D1 with his strange push for a Canucklehead lynch without having any good reasoning. He's also flown under the radar for the most part, except for the usual call for hammer (that's also been the MO of STD and Fritzler). He also jumped on Jack early D2 with weak case, but jumped off to take out Arafax. I feel this most comfortable going in this direction.

Vote: CES

As you can tell, I ordered from least suspicious to most suspicious. I feel Ether is likely pro-town, I'm on the fence with Fritzler, and I would be OK with a lynch on either STD or CES. I would like to see something more on STD before I consider moving my vote.

[HackerHuck]

Was that a hammer?

[HackerHuck]

I swear Fritzler must have radar that alerts him whenever someone says hammer.

[HackerHuck]

Well, Fritzler's alignment shows that MoS can do a pretty good job of distancing.

Did anyone notice that the portcullis was raised yesterday,

one day after

our portcullis keeper died?

I'm still going back to looking at the lynch patterns.

@Toaster Strudel - you had STD high on your lynch list. Why?

I noticed that TSS has managed to avoid being on any of the lynches. Twito lynch - was on TEOM, Arafax lynch - was not voting, IH lynch - was on CES, Jack lynch - was not voting, MoS lynch - was not voting, CES lynch - was on STD.

I'd like to look more at TSQ's case on Ether/TS.

Look how she sat on the fence against luckay luck still attacking him, while still poisoning the well against everyone else on the wagon.

That is where I first began to suspect her.

I haven't come across anything like this yet. Where would I find it?

[HackerHuck]

The HH case I could maybe see as well, but not at all from the distancing part, because the same logic holds true: One player, on day one, does not equal scum distancing. Not in this game, not in any game. Your analysis on this is just silly.

A much more compelling reason to vote for HH, I think, which you don't even mention as a possible justification, is the fact that he has been jumping onto bandwagons late the whole game. This is scummy. Saying scum are distancing from him is, however, preposterous.

Where do you get the idea that I was jumping onto bandwagons late? The only "late" bandwagon I joined was on MoS, but that was still only three RL days into day 5. Considering we had a guilty result on him, I don't think there are too many conclusions that can be drawn from his lynch anyway.

[HackerHuck]

TS did an objective analysis and failed to do it on herself as well.

My choices for scum ATM are:

I think Thok's voting pattern is pretty telling: distancing one day, avoiding townie lynches, jumped onto scum late.

Hackerhuck's has already been talked about.

I wouldn't hang my hat on Toaster Strudel's analysis of my voting patterns, since it's inaccurate.

I have some concerns with TSS now. He has managed to avoid every single lynch so far this game. He actually did have votes on Twito and MoS at some point and pointed some suspicion of Fritzler at the end of the day yesterday. It seems that this scum group had no problems distancing themselves pretty well with the early votes, but neither Fritzler nor MoS seemed to have anything to say about him.


Just something I caught when rereading and it made me laugh...

Fritz jots down in a planner, camera pans to read over words, which say:

"Am scum with MoS, remember to not distance too much next time. Blindly follow him or something."

[HackerHuck]

I'm starting to get a very bad feeling about things now. The way I see it, our setup has us at the equivalent of a newbie game. We know there is likely just a Queen and Princess left for the scum and the chance for a doc or a cop are still out there - we've only had a day doc (and a martyr) and a limited cop killed. We all know that the C9 setup favors scum and a miss today puts us at LYLO. Given all that, I want to throw a rather unorthodox thought out there.

I'm having a hard time getting a read on TSQ, since he replaced Bogre who pretty much did nothing all game. TSQ is a decent enough player that as scum he could probably avoid slipping up, which would put the town at a disadvantage at endgame. If we were to do a pre-emptive lynch on TSQ, that might hurt us if he's not scum, but it would also prevent him going to endgame where I see him getting a pass.

Thoughts?

[HackerHuck]

Well, I can see why TSQ is concerned, but I think you're overreacting to my post.

I am still liking TSS right now, but I wanted to point out the fact that we could go into endgame with TSQ and for me, I don't think he's done anything scummy, but I also don't have a town feeling from him either. I haven't been in a situation like this where there isn't good information to go on, so I wanted to know what other people thought - i.e. discussion point. There's obviously a lot of risk to make a pre-emptive lynch on someone who isn't giving off scum vibes and I wanted to point that out as well.

[HackerHuck]

He's referencing the fact that we are only guaranteed to have two more lynch opportunities left this game - if we lynch wrong today, we're likely at LYLO.

The implication is that he's town and I'm scum trying to trick all of the more experienced players into lynching him so that it wastes one of those last two guaranteed lynches.

[HackerHuck]

That's exactly why I brought it up as a point of discussion. Since bogre lurked the entire game, I don't have a read on TSQ and no one else (save TSS) has really printed much of an opinion on him either. My fear is that come endgame, if I'm left with choosing between TSQ and almost anyone else, it's going to be a coin flip. I have not been in a situation like this before, so I wanted to pose these questions:
a) Does anyone else have the same feelings I do about TSQ?
b) If so, is it worth the potential harm to the town - possibly putting us at LYLO - to get rid of someone that would most likely win at endgame if he is scum.
c) If maybe just applying a little pressure to TSQ would give me a better read on him.
d) And lastly, I thought the discussion might prove useful in analysis later on down the road.

I can totally understand why TSQ doesn't care for that post, but I find it a bit ridiculous for him to think that I'm scum just for suggesting it.

Note: I will probably not have access from Sunday to Tuesday.

[HackerHuck]

STD, why do you think that TSQ is a probable townie?

[HackerHuck]

TS, You just like to see me claim, don't you?

I'm just a vanilla. I'd be surprised to find we have anything else left in this game.

I'm working up my list of suspects, but it's incomplete. I only ask that you not lynch me before I get a chance to post it. Worst case is that I'm lynched at deadline.

[HackerHuck]

Alright, here's my list FWIW.

Scummy to Townie

TSS - I wasn't keen on the fact that TSS has not been on a single lynch. I also don't like how he was on the early route to discredit LL's opinions, but also cast suspicion on Twito for trying to shut up LL. Had a habit of voting to pressure lurkers and also made a point to state that he didn't want to assume anything about the traitor role.

Thok - I didn't really find him scummy until I started to read through his posts again. He was very early on the Twito wagon - almost too early for my taste. I also got a weird vibe from his early vote on MoS, which was for a very weak reason. I also found it odd that it got a tepid response from MoS. He pushes pretty hard for the Jack wagon, but never ended up voting for him.

STD - Hasn't been too helpful in my eyes, but that doesn't necessarily mean scum. All of his suspects (FoS/vote) have been killed save TSS and MoS is the only one who happened to be scum. I do find it a bit scummy that he was so intent on a TSS lynch early on, but now has forgotten that he used to find him scummy.

TSQ - Not much of a read on him. I'm prone to keep some suspicion on him due to LL's early press for a Bogre lynch and I think his reaction to my question about the preventive lynch was a bit over the top.

Sarcastro - I've got less of a read on him than on TSQ. Neither PBuG nor Nightson gave us anything to go on and Sarcastro has also been a bit enigmatic. His initial post is the closest I've seen to scumhunting and then I'm more than a bit surprised that he's seemingly dropped his interest in TSQ, without much explanation.

TS - I found Ether to be very good at trying to pick out scum and trying to avoid lynching townies (maybe too good?). I've got more of a townie feel from Ether, but that hasn't been totally carried forward by TS. As of right now though, she's the only one I would say is likely to be town.

[HackerHuck]

If I've got my time set correctly, the post above was made at 7:39 AM Pacific Time. It's about 8:00 Pacific time at the time I'm posting this.

I really prefer a lynch of thesilentspeaker, but I could switch to Thok if necessary to get something going at deadline.

Vote: tss

[HackerHuck]

Had he not been consistent, I would have gone after TSQ.

ORLY? You would have gone after TSQ? He's verifiably fabricating evidence, why don't you go after him for that?

Careful who you accuse of that. Your "fabricated evidence" on me helped TSQ make a case on me. I only didn't vote for you because I felt that it was likely you were just lazy in your analysis.

[HackerHuck]

^^ I don't like that soft claim.

Ether made a point of attacking both MoS and Fritzler at some point. Do all of you who suspect TS feel that she could have been bussing two of her three living scum buddies?

[HackerHuck]

Ok...Couple things wrong with that.

One, we already have a dead vig,

two, and most importantly: MOS WAS LYNCHED, NOT NIGHTKILLED.

confirm vote: TS

Correction, we already have

two

dead vigilantes. Why would we have yet a third pro-town killing role, one-shot or not?

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a doc left that could have protected MoS, but I don't really think he would have been a prime protection target - that would have been Canuckle/BM, since Maz was already dead.

This is all too much to ignore.

Unvote: tss
Vote: ToasterStrudel

[HackerHuck]

Why do you no longer have the 50% doc? (Given your actions, you've implied it's gone away.)

Not just her actions. She actually said that she doesn't have any night choices.

This role still doesn't feel good to me, based on the descriptions I've seen above.

I would like to see the additional flavor with your claim. You're leaving something out.

We've had two vigilantes already - one limited and one normal.

We've also had two protection roles - the day cop gaoler and the martyr role.

This would be a third role in each category. I am still expecting to see a traditional doc, so I think a traditional doc

and

a limited doc are unlikely.

I would expect to see a regular cop of some kind. If we've got an SK to balance all of that out, it means to me that I'm the only vanilla left, which would put the town in a really good position.

I'm now starting to outguess the mod here, but I'm just not buying that kind of a role and it doesn't help that you don't seem so sure of what your role really is.

[HackerHuck]

Six alive and two or more scum...

Given our confidence in the TS claim, I'm a little leery of a massclaim, but I don't think there's a lot of harm in it. I think I'm the only one alive that's already claimed.

[HackerHuck]

Assuming two scum left, we need to be unanimous to lynch a scum. At least one of Hacker or Sarc should be scum, on account of Hacker not being quicklynched. I suspected Sarc when I thought TS was innocent, and Hacker when I suspected TS was scum; since TS was innocent,

vote: Sarcastro.

If he turns up scum, I would look at STD or TSQ next.

I'm a little confused by your logic. If I'm not scum (which I'm not), the likely reason why I wasn't quicklynched is that either one or both of TSQ/Sarcastro are scum. You seem to omit the possibility of TSQ as scum from your first argument, but then you feel that if Sarcastro is scum TSQ is a likely partner. Why don't you think TSQ could be scum with Sarcastro as town?

[HackerHuck]

I'm not sure why TSQ felt the need to jump in and answer my question for TSS, so I'd like to hear whether that was the correct assumption.

I also find it interesting that Sarcastro has apparently forgotten that he thought TSQ was likely scum when he first read into the game. Has TSQ acted extra townie since then?

What are peoples' thoughts about the massclaim idea?

[HackerHuck]

OK, since I haven't seen much opposition to the massclaim, I'll try and get the ball rolling. Since I've already claimed, let's just pretend that I went first and we'll just have whoever claimed pick the next one to claim. If anyone has a problem with that, please speak up.

I choose TSS to go next.

[HackerHuck]

Sarcastro's role strikes me as too weird to be fake, and seems semiconsistent with what we've seen in the game.

vote the silent speaker

I agree with Thok.
OK, if I'm following correctly, here are the claims in order claimed:

Hacker Huck - vanilla
TSS - vanilla
Sarcastro - Court Magician (if sarcastro dies at night, his target cannot vote the next day)
TSQ - Bowman (raises/lowers the drawbridge)
Thok - vanilla
STD - ??? (Backup portcullis keeper)

Looking back at the daybreak scenes, I noticed that the portcullis was never raised until after VitaminR died. That leads me to believe that STD

can

raise the portcullis, but he was prevented from doing it while the portcullis keeper was alive. I don't see raising the portcullis as being favorable to the town.

Vote: STD

[HackerHuck]

OK, so I got the backup part wrong. That doesn't negate anything else I said. I'm not buying it.

[HackerHuck]

It sure would have been nice if Bogre had been paying attention back on Day 5...

I'm not sure that Muller would show up in the role list, but I still think STD's our scum. Too much is coincidental.

STD - what is your exact role and why have you not lowered the portcullis since you first raised it?

[HackerHuck]

but then I read it again, and I see that you claimed to be a mason with someone who...was not a mason.

Yeah, I guess. I mean. It doesn't say mason, so I cleverly decided to latch onto a role that doesn't say mason in hopes that you'll never go back and look at the role and see that it doesn't say mason.

The Portcullis is down, sealing the first exit.
The Drawbridge is raised, sealing the second exit.
The Jail is empty, and locked.

It is now

Day Eight

. With

6

alive, it takes

4

to lynch!

Huh. That's wierd. That kinda...blows your whole theory out of the water, now, doesn't it? Unless you think I'm a psychic or something. If that's the case...PHEAR ME!!!!!! I AM YOUR NEW GOD! WORSHIP ME AS YOU WOULD ANYONE ELSE MORE POWERFUL THAN YOU!!!!!!

I don't get what you're trying to say here. I never said I didn't think you could raise/lower the drawbridge. I said that the portcullis keeper kept you from opening it in the first place.

[HackerHuck]

I wish that STD had clarified his role a little better. I'm not sure how the portcullis was raised after he was lynched. I think it's more likely that there's a game mechanism preventing the lynches.

I believe our named roles a little more than our vanillas. Out of the three left, I find TSS to be the most likely candidate.

[HackerHuck]

It would be nice to hear from TSQ or Sarcastro sometime during the day. Hopefully they'll see that the thread is open again.

[HackerHuck]

Well, I'm not sure we've got much to gain by figuring that theory out now. Since the exits changed last night, we probably won't get a freebie again tonight. If I'm doing the math right, that means we've only got one more night.

We've got to do something to get this going again, otherwise we're not going to get any additional information to help us out with tomorrow.

Mod: Mass prods please!

[HackerHuck]

I'm doubtful of both scum claiming rather unique power roles, so I would say that one of TSS/Thok is the other scum. I find it a little hard to believe that the last two scum claimed vanilla, so I obviously think that one of Sarcastro/TSQ has to be scum. I'm going to play the odds, since I find more of a delineation of scum/town with the TSS/Thok pairing than the other two.

I'm struggling to pick out much information from the last two game days, since I was so off base.

I'm going back to my original argument on TSS, since it seems to be the best thing I've got on anyone. Up until recently, he had been noticably absent from all of the lynches. He did buss the other scum a bit, but it was always during "safe" times, when no one was in any danger of being lynched.

The only scum tells I really got from Thok are also pretty slight. He made a rather weak vote on MoS early in the game. I could also see this as an opportunity to have a vote on scum he could point back to later in the game (although he didn't). However, in defending himself against STD's attack, he gives an excuse as to why he was late in jumping on MoS' wagon ("he claimed miller") even though he had voted for him previously and never mentioned the miller claim before voting him. I was a little put off by his analysis of Maz's role. I'm also looking at his question posed to Jack in a new light. He asked Jack who Jack thought was protown. He then makes a very focused and lengthy attack on Jack (his only such one this game). Jack was a pretty riskless lynch for scum to press, since he had big wagons on him for the three days prior.

Hmm. I've managed to convince myself he's scum at this point. It's only the most recent action that convinces me he's most likely town.

I think that if Thok were really scum, he would have preferred to lynch me over TSS. Given that both Sarcastro and TSQ have pushed for my lynch recently (and TSS also seems likely to go along with that plan) I think the scum would go for the easy lynch on me today to get the win. I also find it a little strange that he was absent from the STD lynch yesterday, since the scum probably would have been pushing for the townie lynch at LYLO (unless they know about the no-kill mechanism).

Anyway, before I vote, I'm curious about what Sarcastro/TSQ think about the "other" power role or do you guys think that the two scum are in the peasant group?

[HackerHuck]

Sarcastro, care to answer my question about TSQ? Do you think it's more likely that he's scum or that the Princess and Queen are in the peasant group?

I'd also like to hear something relevant from TSQ.

[HackerHuck]

I prefer TSS - or maybe even TSQ - over Thok right now.

Vote: TSS

[HackerHuck]

I think I already explained why I really doubt that Thok is scum. Granted that involves knowing me to be a townie.

[HackerHuck]

Hacker, from what I can tell your "reasoning" also involves assuming I am scum and there being only one scum "townie". You should state allyour assumptions, not only the ones you want people to notice.

Actually I think you misunderstand. The way I see it, if Thok were scum, he would push for my lynch. Since you had said you were leaning toward me, and both TSQ and Sarcastro had pushed for my lynch earlier this game, I don't see why scum Thok would pick you over me - regardless of your alignment. I guess you could say I left out one other assumption. I do believe the flavor and that we're at LYLO. If we can't trust either of the power roles, then my vote will help them win..

[HackerHuck]

Well, I guess I really did deserve to make it to endgame The only person I was right about was MoS and that was because of the cop's investigation. This game has just about made me hang up my hat for mafia - not at all related to the setup.

I may have followed sarcastro after TSQ, but I really couldn't imagine why Thok wouldn't press a case against me at LYLO. I was hoping to call TSQ out for not disputing MoS' claim earlier, but I realised that Bogre was still in the game back then.

Well played scum and great theme PJ.