Assassins in the Palace, omg suicide attacker GAME OVER

[Yosarian2]

Ok. Stratagy thought #1: Based on the first game, random votes are probably very, very bad this game. They give the assasins info, and don't give the town any real info.

[Yosarian2]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]No random voting? ahw

Is random self voting still allowed though?[/quote]

Yeah, in the first game, random voting hurt the town, I think.

Anyway, if the deadline is July 24th and we have a limited time to plan, I'm not sure it's necessarally a bad idea to start discussing some stratagy now, at least in general terms.

Adel might be right that we don't want to discuss anything that might help the scum figure stuff out before Friday, though, just in case we do catch a scum today we don't want him get to talk to his buddy first.

[Yosarian2]

:twiddles thumbs:

I understand the rationalle for not really talking yet, but eh, it's BORING, hehe. Besides, I do worry that if we tell people to not discuss anything important until Saturday that it might cause severe lurking after that.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, general note here.

If someoen votes for or attacks one of the kings, everyone needs to NOT all flip out and vote them right away, ok? That would give away the identity of the kings, which we need to keep secret at all costs. Also, it might (or might not, not really sure here) be a good idea for a guard to occasioanlly vote for a king just to confuse the scum, so it wouldn't even necessaraly mean that the person is scum. There's clearly basically no danger of us actually lynching a king.

(And yeah, people are probably going to WIFOM this to death, I'm just trying to prevent a probable trap I can see us walking into here)

[Yosarian2]

Um, jumpy? I was just saying that the whole "X voted for Y; is Y someone X wants lynched or not" situation I was discribing leads to an endless chain of WIFOM. I certanly wasn't being defensive or jumpy, I don't see what I have to be defensive about.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not really liking the Adel wagon here. At the very least, if she has something she wants to talk about on saturday, we can let her wait and say it on saturday, instread of lynching her before that; sure, we've got a limited timeframe, but it's not THAT limited.

[Yosarian2]

Mislynches are no biggy in this game, and extra discussion is a double edged sword.

Sure they are; each mislynch increases the % chance of a scum win.

[Yosarian2]

Don't post unless you have a vote for someone or a pretty solid case against someone.

This I think is a terrible idea. Lurking is not ok, even in this game; we still need to find the scum, the sooner the better, and if we let people just not say anything, the scum could lurk through until endgame and then win.

[Yosarian2]

Eh, I guess. But tommorow, let's not do this kind of pointless speed wagon again, ok? By the nature of the game, once someone gets wagoned to this point, we basically have to lynch them. But the thing people seem to not be getting is that we still have to find the scum; the scum can still win by just not getting lynched just like in any other game. For example, I'm having trouble seeing the town have much of a chance of winning a hypothetical 1 king-1 guard-1 assasin endgame.

Anyway, I don't like it, but we've really got no other choice at this point.

vote:adel

[Yosarian2]

On the effect of mislynches: I'm not sure if everyone's realised this, but the main issue if we mislynch is that it reduces the list of possible targets for the assassins, meaning that they have a greater chance of correctly picking one of the kings when they make their kill.

Right. And obv if any assassin manages to outlive all the guards they win automatically.

[Yosarian2]

Might as well wait to continue discussion until we find out Adel's alignment at least at this point.

[Yosarian2]

Dude, have you played any of Kelly Chen's games's? She's ALWAYS out to get the town.

[Yosarian2]

WHAT THE F**K?
I only meant the vote as a sort of pressure vote. I need to reread this, and see who the hell is trying to make us quicklynch....

From the nature of the game; one single vote dosn't necessarally mean a whole lot, but once it becomes clear that a significant portion of the town is seriously considering lynching someone, the assasins know that person's not a king, at which point we basically do have to lynch them. It's unfortunate, but once a bandwagon gets started and gets several votes, we will usually have to finish it, I think. Everyone needs to keep that in mind before they bandwagon.

[Yosarian2]

We can get confirmation from the mod when she gets back.

Um...so you weren't joking?

[Yosarian2]

So, you guys wanna speed lynch Albert when he's not online and thus can't threaten to reveal anything?

[Yosarian2]

But, whatever, that's not a very interesting argument, but my point is that the reason for Adel's lynch (look at K-Scope's, Yossy's and Albert's votes) was apparently that we couldn't not lynch him since he had been outed as non-King, which is a highly flawed argument and is based on pure "have the kings survive", which is only part of the game. Catching the assassins is just as important as, or, in my opinion, even more important than protecting the Kings.

They're both important, but I don't see how you can say catching the assasins is more important then hiding the indentiy of the kings.

The main use of the number of guards we have is that the more guards, the better chance that when an assasin dies he'll kill a guard instead of a king. If we get to the point where it's obveous that person X is either a king or an assasin (and I believed that by the time I put my vote on the Adel lynch, we had defiantly gotten there, due not only to the votes but to the comments made by several players), then lynching person X is probably the right thing to do. So we should be very careful about starting bandwagons, because whenever a bandwagon goes on for too long it kind of gets to a "point of no return".

You're suggesting that even if it's obveous someone is a guard, they'll be useful to keep around because it's another pro-town vote. I guess that's true to some extent, and if I was ever 100% sure someone was a guard I wouldn't lynch them just so they could continue to hunt scum and stuff, but an extra pro-town vote isn't even always a good thing here, as it can give away info we don't want to give away. Especally as the scum can really never have the majority here, I don't think the extra vote is really a huge factor here.

[Yosarian2]

Another thing. This is a post that you wrote at the beginning of the game Yos; following your line of thinking, who do you think these bandwagons benefit most, town or scum !? To which side does it give info on who to target or not ? Exactly!

Bandwagons give info to both sides. In any case, we can't win without bandwagoning, although we don't have to do so as quickly as we have been, certanly. Random voting, I figured, is just likely to give info about the kings without giving away anything about the assasins (at least, that's how it went in the first game), so I wanted to make sure I jumped in and stopped that before it had a chance to happen.

[Yosarian2]

If we get to the point where it's obveous that person X is

either a king or an assasin

(and I believed that by the time I put my vote on the Adel lynch, we had defiantly gotten there, due not only to the votes but to the comments made by several players), then lynching person X is probably the right thing to do.

I don't understand this. If I am not mistaken, you seem to be saying you don't know who the kings are. Care to explain that better so that dumb people like me can understand your reasoning?

Lol. I meant to say "that person X is either a guard or assasin", obv.

[Yosarian2]

It becomes easier for the scum to 'wagon, as they control more votes, for one. For two, Adel could've caught an assassin just as anyone else could.

Or, she could have accidently given away the identity of the king just as anyone else could.

Again, I didn't like the Adel wagon, I didn't like the way it developed or the early votes on it. However, it was clear she was either a guard or an assasin, and at that point it was necessary to lynch her. Like I said, if I was sure someone was a guard, I wouldn't lynch them; however, extra guards who are KNOWN to be guards are of very limited use to the town; if someone is clearly not a king, then even if I think they're 80% likely to be a guard and only 20% likely to be an assasin, they're still not a bad lynch.

For three, from a metagaming perspective, we're just giving the Mafia free lynches by saying that when we arrive at Lynch-2 (or whatever arbitrary number is picked), we

have

to lynch someone. You're basically saying that the people who cast Lynch-1 and Hammer should be completely excused of anything, which is a horrible stance to take.

Not really; the way I look at it, in a normal game, the last 2-3 votes are the most relevent. In this game, it's reversed; the most suspicious votes are the FIRST few votes on a bad bandwagon, those are the ones that are the most crucial and dangerous. And that's the way we should be treating them.

[Yosarian2]

OK I'm officially too dumb to understand Yos' reasoning. When you say "it was clear she was either a guard or an assassin", it was clear for who? Every pro-town player knows the other ones are guards or assassins, except for the kings. And why is it necessary to lynch the person which is clearly a guard or an assassin?

Ok. Basically, once a lot of people have voted for/attacked/expressed suspicion for/gone after someone, it becomes fairly clear that they're not a king. Unless a lot of guards are working together to distance themselves, but that's unlikely and dangerous, and in any case I can't imagine the guards would ever put a king at -2, just in case the assasins hammered.

So, by the time I voted for Adel, it was clear to everyone that she must be either a guard or an assasin. In other words, the assasins would have known she couldn't have been a king. If we bandwagon lots of people to the point where the assasins know they're not kings, it will help the assasins narrow down the number of people who could possibly be the king.

In a normal mafia game, we might build 2 or 3 major bandwagons during day 1 before we acutally lynch someone. We can't afford to do that here, because if we do that every "day", it will help the assasins figure out who the kings are by process of elimination.

And if you know who the kings are, why do you say "if someone is clearly not a king, then even if I think they're 80% likely to be a guard and only 20% likely to be an assasin, they're still not a bad lynch."? I reason you think everybody in this game except for the kings are not bad lynches. I don't understand.

Let me put it this way. If person X is a good guy, and the assasins don't know if person X is a guard or a king, then person X is a bad lynch, because lynching person X makes it easier for the assasins to figure out who the king is. If the town as a whole, by the way they've treated person X, has already shown that person is not a king, then lynching person X has a much lower cost to the town.

[Yosarian2]

Also, let's all just post one-liners so the assassins can't find the Kings! We'll never lose that way!

You mean, like this?

[Yosarian2]

Anyway, I'm not saying we should ALWAYS lynch anyone who's at -2 (for example, I'm not voting Albert at the moment, because I think it's likely he's not scum). You are right that we as a town get more info if people only vote when they actually think someone's looking scummy, but eh, we do want to keep the number of bandwagosn that DON'T lead to a lynch to an absolute minimum at least.

[Yosarian2]

I think that should be achieved mainly by not bandwagoning rather than by not lynching.

That, I agree with you on. We've got to be a lot more careful with our bandwagoning. People are throwing around votes like they're nothing, and that's just stupid in this setup, unless you're an assasin trying to get the town to be dumb bandwagoners.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, Battlemage's plan is pretty terrible. There's a reason we need to go after people one at at time here.

[Yosarian2]

Agreed.

vote:Albert

. He's just looking too oppurtunistic at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, I hammered. Like I said, it's reversed from a normal game; the first few votes on a wagon need to be based in very strong logic and reasoning, and you need to be really confindent of it before you vote. The last few are much less important, and any minor scumtell is enough reason to hammer someone once the person has shown they are not a king.

Now, can we PLEASE be more careful with the next bandwagon? Anyone who starts a major wagon up in a short period of time again is going to be looked at VERY CAREFULLY by me.

[Yosarian2]

Didn't we just decide that we weren't going to do this today?

Truth.

[Yosarian2]

Damnit. This game is so not going to go well if everyone keeps insisting on playing really, really stupid.

vote:yogurt bandit

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, prods are good. It's wierd with this game, feels like it's hard to stay active becauise I don't want to give away anything more then I have to about who I trust and who I suspect, but yeah, everyone lurking isn't going to help us find the assasins either.

I think part of it is that everyone's now just sitting around waiting for someone to hammer yogurt; it's inevitable now, and starting a new bandwagon before this one ends might be a bad idea.

[Yosarian2]

Hmm. I think I might as well start the bandwagon this time, before some scum starts it first. I think I'm leaning towards a

vote: ergo

; he's not been lurking, but he's kind of just been staying in the background for most of the game. Sort of the classic "middle sized" scum tell.

[Yosarian2]

Battle Mage, a case would be nice. I'm starting to think undo is a possibility. I'll agree with you, Yossy, but I don't think it warrants a lynch. We should prod him and make him post first.

Well, it's just that it's so easy for scum to fade into the background in a game like this. All you'd have to do is make some vauge comments and join some bandwagons late, and that's just the vibe I'm getting from him at the moment.

[Yosarian2]

OMGUS my ass. When you vote without presenting a reason, you're scummy.

Um, you know, a heck of a lot off people this game have voted someone without giving a reason, and you didn't give them any flack for it. Why it is only scummy when it's a vote for you?

[Yosarian2]

So, in other words, OMGUS?

[Yosarian2]

unvote

vote:undo

[Yosarian2]

Actually, the main reason I'm voing undo isn't the OMGUS stuff, that's just a side point. The big thing he's done that I find sucmmy is the way he was an early memeber of the Adel bandwagon (he was the 3rd vote, the second if you don't count Adel's self-vote), joined Albert's bandwagon a little later but before it was actually inevitable, quite, and third vote on the Yogurt Bandit wagon.

Basically, he's not starting bandwagons, but he's the one who's been consistantly pushing bad bandwagons towards or over the line to where they become basically inevetable. His votes have been more consistantly harmful to the town then anyone else in the game.

[Yosarian2]

Agreed. This wagoning is going completly out of control.

vote:KaleiDoscope

[Yosarian2]

Why the heck is Jdodge being run up here? It's so obveous he's not an assasin.

[Yosarian2]

Interesting certainty there Yosarian. I don't really think he's scum either, but obviously not an assassin? Hmm.

Vote: Sarcastro

Don't you agree? I'd think that any objective observer reading the game with no info could see that Jdodge is a bad lynch.

[Yosarian2]

unvote

vote:battle mage

[Yosarian2]

I also want JDodge (380), Scope (382), Battle Mage (385), Battle Mage (388), Scope (389), Yosarian (392), Patrick (402) and Yosarian (415) to explain their votes.

Read battle mage's posts today. It should be obveous to you that he's scum. I'd say more if I thought it was wise.

[Yosarian2]

please do say more.

No. I'll tell you the mistake that gave your alignment away after the game is over, scum.

[Yosarian2]

In a normal game, that would be true, Battle Mage.

[Yosarian2]

Well...crap. I was so sure we were right about that one.

[Yosarian2]

[quote="KaleiÐoscøpe"]

Vote: Yos2

[/quote]

Dude, have you been not paying attention?

vote:Gorrad

[Yosarian2]

No, you have not been paying attention, or no, you have not not been paying attention?

[Yosarian2]

Maybe it's time to try something different - maybe wagon one of the kings for a bit and see where it goes?

Ummm....why would you SAY you were going to do that? What the heck are you thinking?

fos:Erg0

[Yosarian2]

Ok, guess I might as well actually explain myself on some points here. There are some reasons I can safetly give, I think.

First, did you read the Marathon game, Gorrad? After reading that, and looking at the way it went, I'd say that Jdodge is playing just the way I would expect a pro-town Jdodge to play at this point.

I find it esepcally convincing the way Jdodge stuck by his "don't talk, lynch lynch lynch" argument even when he was the one on the chopping block. WIFOM, I suppose, but the tone of it really convinced me. If he is scum, he's fooled me good, heh heh.

Secondly, it seems like Gorrad is trying really, really hard to sound pro-town by giving helpful-sounding nice-and-fluffy but anti-town stratagy advice here, pretty constantly, while ignoring the real pro-town stratagies in this kind of game. This post is especally bad:

Gah! And he does it AGAIN! Ok,

Vote: Jdodge

, for all the reasons I've previously stated. The way Yos is playing he well could be scum too, those reasons have been pointed out by others, but I'm going to keep my vote on Jdodge unless it's clear he's not going to be today's lynch and Yos is.

NO. In this kind of game, you NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER want to say "I want to lynch X, and Y looks scummy too". That's just a terribly anti-town thing to do. Go after one person; go after the next only if it seems really clear that either A. that person is not going to get lynched or B. after that person got lynched. Attacking two people at once like that is fine in a normal game, but it's very anti-town play in this game

[Yosarian2]

Yos, first of all, I've never played with anyone in this group except Jack before. That being said, there is no way I would know

First, did you read the Marathon game, Gorrad?

If you didn't, I'd suggest you do so now. There's a link in the mod's second post.

Ok, maybe I'm just the only one not getting this. How in the nine rings is this a good strategy? Randomly lynching people who seem scummy to JDodge only...Don't you see that if he's scum, all he has to do is keep bandwagoning until either he hits a king, at which point he claims it was to throw scum off, or only him, his scumbuddy, and a few more are left. Boom, he wins.

:eyebrow:

And who, exactally, has been suggesting we all blindly follow Jdodge, or that we lynch randomally? I certanly never have suggested either of those two courses of action.

Also, Yos, I don't get why you don't want me suspecting a second person. I'm not the only one to suspect you, and by saying I suspect you too, but not as much as JDodge, I'm just supporting attacks on you by others.

Have you been reading the game at all? How many times do I have to explain it?

If you are pro-town, then the more people you attack at once, the more widely spread you make known who you are suspicious of, the easier it becomes for the scum to find the kings. If you really think person A is scum, and want to go after him, then do it, and ideally do it well enough so that that person gets lynched. But going after two people at once is an INCREDIBLY anti-town stratagy; even if you are right about person A being an assasin and get him lynched, you've just increaded the odds of person A hitting a king by attacking person B at the same time. We can't afford half-assed double-headed attacks like that.

I've explained this before, and you "liked my logic" back then. So why are you still constantly and consistantly behaving in an anti-town way, and trying to get others to do the same? You know, I honestly think you already do understand all of this already, and you're just fishing for kings by playing dumb about it all.

[Yosarian2]

And yet when JDodge votes, you follow for the sake of bandwagoning. Post 457 not only has you voting JDodge, but you insult K-scope for voting someone who Jdodge didn't.

Wrong on basically ever level there. I explained why I am voting for you, and it has nothing to do with "following JDodge for the sake of bandwagoning". The fact that JDodge voted you before I did does make me feel better about him, as it makes me think he's seeing the same stuff I'm seeing here, but I was going to vote for you anyway.

Anyway, I'm not even going to respond to the rest of the post, as that's likely to do more harm then good. You're scum, die, kthx.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian is not being as intelligent as I'd expect him to be, with his mass 'wagoning and whatnot. He could very well just be going with the flow because he can get away with it. I still dislike his faulty push for BM.

Mass wagoning? Not counting wagons I joined late for the stratigic reasons I explained earlier, there are 3 wagons I actually pushed for so far, Undo's, Battle Mage's, and Gorrad's. I was right about 1/3 of them. Not a great ratio, perhaps, but it's better then your voting record so far this game.

[Yosarian2]

The first time you even mention Gorrad by name is the post you vote him. .

Well, of course that day was the first time I attacked him. Didn't you read my posts? If I was trying to lynch BM the day before, I would certanly not attack Gorrad in the same day. That would be bad stratagy, and in fact was one of the scumtells I used to catch Gorrad with. When I attack someone, it's because I intend to get them lynched, that day. Otherwise, I wouldn't. Now, if I try and am unable to get them lynched, that's a different story, but I would not want to even "mention Gorrad by name" in any context, positive or negitive, unless and until I thought he was the best lynch candidate for that day or unless I had some other pressing reason to do so.

Give me one reason to assume you weren't bussing him that is

not

based on complete and utter WIFOM.

Isn't your question here based on complete and utter WIFOM?

I helped lynch a scum who, arguably at least, probably not have been lynched if I hadn't supported the bandwagon and then laid out my case against him. Obveously when you catch a scum you can never prove you weren't bussing them, but I must say I'm surprised that your arguments here seem totally unchanged by Gorrad's alignment. I attacked him, and I was right, and if you really want to call that scummy then you're the one who's gone too far around the WIFOM bend here.

Your posts conflict. You complain about people being utterly stupid, yet you happily join wagons yourself.

I complained about people starting stupid wagons based on nothing. That dosn't mean I'm not going to start a wagon when I see a case; in fact, I feel like I need to wagon early as that's honestly the only way I feel like I can know the wagon's not being led by scum.

You pushed BM on nothing.

Nothing

.

You are wrong there, but I can't really blame you for that, because I still can't say why I pushed BM. That being said, I'm still not going to explain that any farther.

[Yosarian2]

vote:Zindaras

This is the way we need to go today.

[Yosarian2]

vote:Zinderas

, I mean.

[Yosarian2]

It's obveous. Look at the way he flailed at me for "bandwagoning without a reason", and then he did the exact same thing, voting Jack for no reason at all. Zinderas is the scum.

[Yosarian2]

That tell only really works if you ignore the fact that everyone else has been doing pretty much the same thing for the whole game.

Yeah, but Zinderas was basically insisting that reasonless bandwagoning was a scum tell when I did it, at the exact same time he was doing it himself.

[Yosarian2]

This case is preposterous, retarded.

Could be, but you're still scum.

[Yosarian2]

Eh, tempting as it is to leave it at that, I might as well expand a bit more.

There are some other things you've done that really seemed scummy to me. For example, it really feels like you've been trying as hard as you could to fish for what, exactally, made me think BM is scum; your posts yesterday makes me think you're a scum who was scratching your head, reading all of his posts, trying your damndest to figure out what I know that you don't.

[Yosarian2]

C'mon, someone, hammer hammer hammer hammer hammer hammer hammer. Hammer hammer. Hammer.

[Yosarian2]

vote:sarcastro

[Yosarian2]

The Zindaras lynch was totally not understandable. D:

Sorry about that...the reason I lynched you actually had nothing at all to do with the reasons I gave.

You see, when Sarc "OMGUS" voted KaleiDoscope the day before last, it looked to me like he was a guard distancing from the king. I mean, really, who actually comes out and says they're OMGUS voting that far into the endgame? So I figured he was a guard trying to distance himself. So, that meant the last assasin was either you or Jdodge, and I was sure he was a guard.

But of course, I couldn't SAY that was my reason; in fact, if you were the last assasin, I didn't want you to even guess that that was why I was voting for you. Honestly, I really didn't even think you really looked very scummy, certanly not for the reasons I gave, it just seemed like you had to be scum by process of elimination.

[Yosarian2]

But Yos, why BM?

Couple of reasons which I couldn't explain at the time.

First of all, after the way I sequntionally distanced myself from both kings in two days in a row, I figured all the guards would know I was a town guard while the scum would (hopefully) have no idea what I had just done, so when BM expressed suspicion against me, it made me suspect him. (That was also one of the resons I suspected Gorrad, btw, and one of the reasons I suspected you).

Secondly, this post made me think he was scum.

UnHoS

*thud of realisation* lol

When he said that, I was under the impression that he THOUGHT I had some key piece of information about JDodges alignment, and he was pretending to know what I was talking about. However, as far as I know, Jdodge had never inteacted with either king at all at that point, so there really wasn't any guard based info I could have been using, and it seemed like BM didn't know that.

I donno. I guess I read too much into his "thud of realisation" thing, but there was sure no way I could ask for clarification about what fact gave him that "thud of realisation" without giving away way to much information.

There was really no way I could explain either scum tell in thread without giving away king-based info, so I figured I'd just plow through. Also, you are right, the way I did it was intentioanlly designed to confuse and mislead the assasins.

[Yosarian2]

HoSses are completely useless. They're like unFoSsing. It's nothing but show. Town should not utilize them.

Meh. There's nothing wrong with show, or with trying to be precice about exactally how much you suspect someone.