SMITE Role Madness Mafia (OVER AT LAST!)

[Cephrir]

You had a neighborhood with him and nothing better to do all day and still didn't get a townread. :S

[Cephrir]

If you're seriously scumreading Imperium, you're going to need to present something very convincing.

Oh, I'm scumreading them alright.
I'm not voting them, though, specifically because I

don't

have something very convincing.
I don't think Tammy's obvtown.
I think that Nacho's playing his scumgame.

I don't really have anything I can say beyond that because all I've got on the Nacho thing is, "that's just how I think he does things as scum?".
Which is to say, nothing.

Well, doesn't that bother you? Aren't you going to do something about it?

[Cephrir]

Do you just completely forget everything you know about me after each game?

[Cephrir]

Go to S&S.
Iso me.
ctrl f "mhork" and "mastin".
then you can come back here and tell me I only buddy as scum.

[Cephrir]

I thought the end of yesterday looked remarkably like town mastin. It made me feel quite a bit better.

[Cephrir]

What are you talking about?

[Cephrir]

Oh, I was kinda trying to read her. There's still something giving me a bit of pause on that front, but all the same, it was a major improvement.

[Cephrir]

It feels like you're trying to buddy falcon because he jumped your shit for having my back.

Not even remotely.

I'm going to choose not to say more about this at this time.

[Cephrir]

It feels like you're trying to buddy falcon because he jumped your shit for having my back.

Not even remotely.

I'm going to choose not to say more about this at this time.

I'm perfectly fine with that. It felt really squicky at the time but then I thought oh maybe he's just playing along, but then you said you have a town read on her and I'm just wha?

The interaction basically had nothing to do with my personal read of you at all and I imagine I've have said exactly the same things if she was talking about any universal townread.

[Cephrir]

I think looking for scum/town on deadline wagons is an even more pointless exercise than I feel VCA is to begin with.

[Cephrir]

Go to S&S.
Iso me.
ctrl f "mhork" and "mastin".
then you can come back here and tell me I only buddy as scum.

Not saying you only buddy as scum.

btw, what *were* you saying, then?

[Cephrir]

oh you're still harping on that. okay then.

[Cephrir]

Oh, I was kinda trying to read her. There's still something giving me a bit of pause on that front, but all the same, it was a major improvement.

When will you guys learn when I say you can trust me, you better damn well trust me?

Literally never

If AP wasn't scummy, how did solar wind catch him?

They didn't.

^ fake typos are scummy

Hey friends

Mastin did this in organic chemistry and was town.


I know, it could be faked. Could be attempt to subvert meta.

But Occam's razor, we have bigger scum to catch

Unless you're yyping on the phone, or have a faulty keyboard, I find It hard to believe that one can possibly make so many typos. No matter how fast I type, minimal typos. Even when I'm mad.


So, might be a scum tactic. Hm. Possibly.

How can you possibly make these three posts in a row? It sounds like hydra dissonance, and you aren't a hydra.

For anyone who's wondering, mastin is officially town forever as of this page.

I want to slap TWIE because he's bad

Do you read the preview edit?

What do you think about cephrir's botched claim/gambit?

Botched?

[Cephrir]

sonic readlists

town

2. Metal Sonic
4. Skybird
23. Bitmap
7. TheWayItEnds
13. Solar Wind (F-16_Fighting_Falcon and fferyllt)
21. Magua
3. Mastin2
25. Heartless (TellTaleHeart and Antihero) < ----- because governor claim
14. FourTrouble

not null but dont know

12. Farside22 (Gun to head: town)
22. vezokpiraka (Gun to head: scum)
16. Imperium (Tammy and Nacho) (gun to head: town)
6. Beastcharizard < ---- his vote PR looks towny but bad play (gun to head: town)
9. Ooba (gun to head: scum)
5. Theaceofspade (gun to head: town)

null

11. PeregrineV
17. RachMarie
19. Ankamius
10. ZZZX

scum

20. T S O
24. Xombie
8. TiphaineDeath
18. The Mask
15. Cephrir

The fuck is this shit? Your read of me changes every five minutes and seemingly in a 1:1 relationship with my read of you

8. TiphaineDeath


given that he complied with cephrir's gambit

inclined to think he's town

thats a good point

A) he really didn't comply at first
B) this is a horrible, horrible reason to townread someone. Scum have no choice but to comply because refusing outright is literally claiming scum.

Pere is also a lurker.


Zzzx is a good choice. But in capcom he was town.

ZZZX is not a good choice.

[Cephrir]

Mask is also a bad choice, by the way.

[Cephrir]

But not for the reason you're thinking? I don't know how I feel about the situation with him actually

[Cephrir]

How can you possibly make these three posts in a row? It sounds like hydra dissonance, and you aren't a hydra.

this statement doesnt make sense.

but yes i agree with mastin town

You called her scummy, then town, then scummy again with nothing changing between the posts.

[Cephrir]

"crumb lie detector"

"crumb lie detector"

"make TD gambit lie detector"

"whoops! Im not a lie detector"


*real lie detector flips*


what on earth are you

The success or failure of my reaction test is completely unrelated to the existence of an actual lie detector in the game. I don't know what you mean by "whoops". Retracting my implications was what I intended all along. Everything else I have said about my role stands.

[Cephrir]

The fuck is this shit? Your read of me changes every five minutes and seemingly in a 1:1 relationship with my read of you

um, no

um, yes

[Cephrir]

I crumbed lie detector in 1956 but everything I said before that applies to my actual role. In fact, I had actually said at least one thing that contradicted the possibility that the thing I've been referring to is a lie detector.

[Cephrir]

3441 does not read like you think mastin is town at the time

[Cephrir]

I'll end up doing it eventually.

There are pros and cons to claiming now as opposed to just proving it.

[Cephrir]

If you'd been reading my posts, you'd know that I claimed it was quite strong and quite town.

[Cephrir]

does scum knowing that you have this ability allow them to subvert it?

probably

if you claim it, will you be afraid of dying?

i already am

if you claim it, will you be able to be considered conftown?

will you require doctor support?

pretty close

maybe?

[Cephrir]

I mean that I can't be sure scum can subvert anything, because I don't actually know what they have, but probably.

[Cephrir]

if you could be made unkillable for the rest of the game, would you claim your ability, knowing that scum might be able to subvert it in the way you think?

I would not.

[Cephrir]

The good news is, there's one type of subversion that doesn't affect me as severely as it could!

[Cephrir]

:S

[Cephrir]

Sort of.

I am still deciding whether it's prudent.

[Cephrir]

I do? I was actually surprised by how good my points weren't and am townreading her less as a result of the exercise

[Cephrir]

When you're openly a dayvig, acting without consensus is antitown.

For reasons related to my role, please do not kill The Mask.

[Cephrir]

Can we all just agree that the whole argument about whether AP counts as town or not is completely irrelevant and a waste of time, then move on with our lives?

[Cephrir]

:igmeoy:

[Cephrir]

Oh shut up formatting. Just shut up.

[Cephrir]

I feel as though I've slipped from acting to reacting.

I dislike this.

[Cephrir]

ace and peregrine are both good shots. beast, td and skybird are also acceptable.

[Cephrir]

x.x

[Cephrir]

Yes, because like 18 other people have confirmed he is actually a dayvig

[Cephrir]

Swampland doesn't sound so bad. I'm sure I could find something to use it for.

[Cephrir]

Yes, because like 18 other people have confirmed he is actually a dayvig

who did this and what drugs was i doing at the time to where i missed it?

Didn't he claim this to both bitmap and his neighbors

[Cephrir]

Well he thinks they're all super town supposedly and has been behaving as though he is real for quite a few pages.

[Cephrir]

I believe the proper and official terminology for this situation is, "rekt."

UNVOTE:

[Cephrir]

I wonder if AP was silenced yesterday. That could explain why he went around posting everywhere else and seemingly ignored us. I'd think he'd have voted as a means of communication though.

[Cephrir]

MS could still be a racist, but he's pretty unlikely to be mafia now. Not interested in lynching him.

[Cephrir]

What do you mean?

[Cephrir]

No neighborhood spec allowed.

[Cephrir]

*treads elsewhere*

[Cephrir]

ceph, what are your thoughts about ooba?

I'm currently inclined to lean town from a naive perspective, because I like what he posts when he posts, but he hasn't felt as involved or reminded me of a detective (this is seriously the first thing I'd think of if you mentioned him in a word association game or some such) as much as he did in ASOIAF, so while I'd still call this a townread, he could just be good at scum.

pedit: I did not read the above before posting this.

[Cephrir]

I think I need to read a few ooba scumgames.

That would be extremely welcomed.

[Cephrir]

Did you just build a troll pyramid scheme?

[Cephrir]

Okay, I want you to look very closely at the next image




look over there. it says YOUR DAYKILLER WILL BE ROLEBLOCKED FOR THE NIGHT.

THATS RIGHT

I HAVE NO ADVANTAGE TO GO INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT

NORMALLY IF WE DIDN'T KNOW BITMAP HAS THIS SUPER COOL COMMUTER HIPSTER ABILITY, THE BEST I COULD DO IS TO GET A DOC PROTECT

NOW WE DO

IF THERE IS A GOOD WAY THAT I CAN STAY ALIVE TONIGHT 100%

THEN WE DO IT


I took the goddamn fall for the town

unless i get a confirmed protect (who on earth is going to claim a protective role, please hit your head on the wall)

I am a sitting duck

without me, half of the town would lose their action tonight

without me, PV would be in time to claim beloved princess and be able to weasel his bum out of a tasty lynch

PV would have the time to use his ulti to silence someone and get his team fish for another free mislynch





SO YOU WILL FORGIVE ME IF I ASK FOR THE NUMBER 1 COMMUTING SERVICE TO BE USED ON ME TONIGHT

/not everyone believes you are town and not third party/

I also am not a huge fan of the way you've dismissed those concerns with "there can't possibly be 2 SKs (in a game with role madness in its title)". But I don't especially care about this.

Anyway, I have caught up. I don't have a ton to say about what I read. I'm vaguely interested in seeing where pushing on Solar Wind goes; I know I've had them as top tier town all game but seeing everyone else doubting them gives me pause and reminds me of other things. However, I have difficulty getting past the emotions they have displayed in order to even consider the possibility.

Imperium is still almost certainly town. Not for anything they've done lately, I just remember feeling unwavering conviction here early on. Tammy, I would like it if you could stop flipping out at Magua. Having opinions is allowed, and you should not be /mad/ at him for not thinking you are town. In fact you should not do that to anyone ever. Presumably he will be able to provide more concrete reasons.

There are some players who're starting to frustrate me with their absence (looking at you Rach) but I think that a

VOTE: Skybird

is in order? I want to look at PV for completeness' sake, but him being PV I expect that will be useless. I agree that his votes on Ace and Rach make them look better.

[Cephrir]

There has absolutely got to be something to be found in the almost-PV-votes we've had. Someone in there was intentionally not lynching him.

[Cephrir]

There are like a million claims in this game that are supposedly 100% town and I don't believe it's possible that all of them are town.

[Cephrir]

Oh, and I'm not exactly vouching for Mask being town. I am just vouching that lynching him isn't a thing we should do.

[Cephrir]

There has absolutely got to be something to be found in the almost-PV-votes we've had. Someone in there was intentionally not lynching him.

no. there was never a wagon on PV. even if his scumbuddies wanted to bus him (note: never happened), they could bail at the last minute for ~reasons~ knowing that they will eat a roleblock.

one tip I gave to my neighborhood is to look out for who was waffling on a PV read prior to me announcing to shoot him.

like

"oh PV is null"

"nullscum"
"nulltown"



which is hard to differentiate town from scum saying that, because

honestly PV really is null

Right, I know there was never a wagon on PV.

I'm saying there probably should have been one. It was brought up; who resisted it?

My feeling is that even though scum would be okay with lynching PV, they would rather get him nightkilled.

[Cephrir]

Though I must confess, there's something I feel like Mask should have reacted to, and he hasn't.

Maybe he's just smart enough to realize, as I have, that it's not actually relevant.

[Cephrir]

who is going to resist something that gives the town a full roleblock for a night?


given PV's role, this line of questioning will bear no fruit. I've discussed this in detail (with myself) in the neighborhood

Dayskip seems better.

[Cephrir]

nightkilled.

AP died d1.

What if I told you vig is a role

[Cephrir]

Moreover, I am mostly talking about D1, when the scum wouldn't have known AP's role.

[Cephrir]

There are always associative tells.

Associatve tells are the best scumhunting method in existence.

[Cephrir]

If lynching Mask wasn't off the table, I need to know how people would feel about it.

[Cephrir]

I also still want a real response to that ooba post because the more it gets ignored the more it sounds like a slam dunk

[Cephrir]

Yes. If you want Mask to not be alive, lynching him isn't the way to do it.

[Cephrir]

P.S. He will not have the slightest idea what I am saying.

[Cephrir]

So it's like every game ffery plays in then?

[Cephrir]

So what are you saying, then? Anyone who realized he was claiming dayvig in private is town? I beliee that's where we get if we follow this train of thought to its logical conclusion.

[Cephrir]

So what are you saying, then? Anyone who realized he was claiming dayvig in private is town? I beliee that's where we get if we follow this train of thought to its logical conclusion.

Do you think that makes sense?

I don't. Why would scum feel the need to post in their QT about something so obvious?

[Cephrir]

ZZZX
Xombie
Metal Sonic <--If not town, then third party playing the part of town. Soooooooooooooooo, no touchie.

Bitmap <--Still think play was protown and role was town.
FourTrouble
Solar Wind
Cephrir
The Mask
Magua

Heartless <--Knocked down a few pegs because Anti just proved how dangerous he can be as scum. (His scumplay is no longer the same, AND he no longer has the debilitating lurking weakness. Meaning that my ability to read him is...far less reliable than before.)
beastcharizard <--General feeling that this is not beast playing as scum, combined with the feeling that the wagon on him wasn't towndriven.
vezokpiraka

farside22

TSO
Imperium

ooba
theaceofspade
Ankamius
TheWayItEnds <--Simply hasn't left a memorable impression yet, combined with predecessors' scumminess.
Skybird

Something like this.

Outside of Imperium and possibly ooba, I am in love with this read list.

[Cephrir]

Well, and ignoring ZZZX and Xombie's placements for now because obviously you have info I don't.

And we disagree on Rach still, though the more she isn't here the more I get :S

[Cephrir]

Hey, you're still in the town club, Anti.
Just not the conftown club.
What'd you expect? My markers for reading you were destroyed--not just the activity one which you knew about. The other ones as well. The subtleties like tonality, the way you push things, and whatnot. You kinda obliterated them all. So now all I have is my best guess.

I need to investigate this, don't I.

[Cephrir]

-...But that doesn't mean theace is town. Rather the opposite, I actually think that it's quite possible or even probable that scum, being aware of who scum are, are more sensitive to scumslips their partners make and jump on them more than actual town would...thus, they bus, figuring only a matter of time before the masses move against theace. It's something to keep in mind about Ceph

FWIW I did not vote him for slipping, I just thought he was scummy-- mostly for his reasonless push on AP.

I still think that is scummy.

[Cephrir]

Also, I do say this.
Actually confirmed.
As in proven.
I can say 100% that ZX and Xombie are both not scum.
This isn't some claimed role shenanigan of theirs, or something they claimed and proved yet which means nothing beyond proving their power exists. (e.g. double-voter.)
It's an actual, established, hard-lined fact about them.

For others defending a player.
Be honest.
And tell me.
Can the same be said of your defendant?

No, and I've been trying to be explicit about that.

Ank, after You Could Be Anyone, are you sure Rach is town? She is nice but how do you come to read her as town?

Who's scum reading us?

That's why they are. There's no other reason besides thinking the attacks are cool and hating me for it.

Why make dozens of post on the issue? It's like hammering the same nail when it's already implanted.

Yes. If you want Mask to not be alive, lynching him isn't the way to do it.

Are you a racist too? >_> or are you not insinuating I should be killed?
Also Sonic pointed out that you tried to clear me earlier and you no sold it. Respond please.

I'm not trying to clear you. I'm trying to be subtle, and it's just really, really not working. I am tempted to say forget it at this point, because I don't currently think it's likely I will take action.

My BFF! I don't think this will help you much right now but I want to give you something. I hope you enjoy so I can give you more presents! Have a wonderful day.

Inspire: Metal Sonic

On the other hand I'll be interested if this does anything.

[Cephrir]

You are going to have to get used to me being "snipey."

That's kinda how I am.

This is probably the first of many.

[Cephrir]

This game is really dense and kinda losing my interest a bit right now. I will probably get re-energized when the game stops feeling like slogging through liquid asphalt.

[Cephrir]

Nothing is /happening/.

[Cephrir]

Some wagon thoughts:

TheAceofspades (3): Xombie, Ooba, vezokpiraka
Skybird (3): Mastin2, Cephrir, Heartless
RachMarie (2): Bitmap, Farside22

- I like the ace wagon because all the people on it right now are town
- Cephrir's position on the Skybird wagon and Bitmap's presence on the Rach wagon does not inspire confidence

???????

Yeah, second on the wagon? Scum.

Since when do you think Bitmap is scum?

Associative tells:
- mastin who creates an entire post about wagons - mentions how theace wagon could be scum on scum, and keeps mentioning ace multiple times - but actually votes Skybird.
- Also, ace's entire mastin case and push reads like a newbie bus.

Anyway, not sure of the pairing that much - but ace needs to be the one to go.

Pls no unflipped associatives tia

[Cephrir]

I may be kinda suffering from Bert disease (I've seen you be absurdly town before so when you're only kinda town I start to get worried where I would normally townread you).

I would still call him town gun to head but I don't feel warm and fuzzy.

[Cephrir]

Also, literally all of my reads are fading a little as I feel more distant from the game.

[Cephrir]

Not you as in you. You as in ooba.

[Cephrir]

We may be drifting closer to KOTORrir right now and I am not sure why. I don't like him and would like it if he could stay in his hole.

[Cephrir]

I think I would just like it if we could lynch someone already.

[Cephrir]

We may be drifting closer to KOTORrir right now and I am not sure why. I don't like him and would like it if he could stay in his hole.

What is KOTOR?

As in Knights of the Old Republic - but what does it have to do with me?

Nothing whatsoever.

[Cephrir]

Right now I'm sitting on a list of like 8 players I can kinda see as scum with no particular ideas about which ones are scummier than others.

[Cephrir]

Gun to my head right now I'd go with Skybird, Ankamius anddddddd beast?

[Cephrir]

No, not beast. Ace.

pedit: Por quoi?

[Cephrir]

Such is my fate, I'm afraid.

[Cephrir]

To be eternally doubted, that is.

*gazes into the sunset*

[Cephrir]

Because you are calling me racist

That's not scummy.

[Cephrir]

Yeah, me three. We ain't all scum.

[Cephrir]

Td is apperently targetable today even with brambles.

Dunno why Cephrir couldn't target him yesterday.

Maybe someone did something to me. I have no idea.

[Cephrir]

VOTE: beastcharizard

THis vote is negotiable, but it isn't going on FT.

[Cephrir]

Eh, sometimes someone is just scum.

Sure he might not be. But people get too easily spooked by consensus.

[Cephrir]

It's not that you don't have content. It's that you don't have a lot of content, and then you do have posts interspersed that are content-lite to content-free (3189, 3451, 3737, 3786, 3789, 3794, 3800, 3881, 4110, etc I stopped there).

Especially the vote count one in 3189 throws me off, because that's the exact sort of thing I did as scum in War in Heaven III because it looked like work without actually taking any stances. Ditto for setup spec, which-god-is-Metal-Sonic, who-has-brambles etc.

So it'd be okay if he made the exact same posts, then didn't add setup spec? Baffling.

Also, when it comes to FT, you really, truly do need to read his day 1 posts. If there is one player whose day 1 posts you should read it's him.

[Cephrir]

Beast could hardly fake his conviction, but FT could fake his genuine scumhunting and the zillion town motivated things he's done?

Faking beast's iso would be a fuckload easier.

[Cephrir]

I've just remembered a recent development that probably makes ooba pretty town. His posts have also been improving lately now that I think about it. I think you're barking up the wrong tree.

[Cephrir]

that was an awkwardly timed interruption.

[Cephrir]

FT's intial questioning\analysis looks fine but it's the pushes he chooses that I have problems with: Anamikus, Vezok, TD,

Ceph

, beast,

mastin

The two bolded are fine I guess.

Funny, 'cause the bolded are the only two that

are

problematic as far as I'm concerned.

This is exactly what I was going to say!

[Cephrir]

Solar Wind/Magua/farside22/TSO/Vezokpiraka

What is your current read on TiphaineDeath?

I know at least one of Heartless townreads him. Normally I'd throw support for this wagon immediately since I'm leaning town on the other two slots, but the fact that Mastin is the only one on it right now is making me have second thoughts about whether I'm on the right track about beastcharizard or not.

wut

[Cephrir]

Solar Wind/Magua/farside22/TSO/Vezokpiraka

What is your current read on TiphaineDeath?

I know at least one of Heartless townreads him. Normally I'd throw support for this wagon immediately since I'm leaning town on the other two slots, but the fact that Mastin is the only one on it right now is making me have second thoughts about whether I'm on the right track about beastcharizard or not.

wut

What's confusing?

You're hesitant to vote TD because other people aren't doing it?

That sounds like something I would say, but I'd like to hear your explanation. It's jarring after all this "I can't vote X because too many people are voting them."

[Cephrir]

So it has nothing to do with Mastin in particular? When you made the original post I thought you were saying you were suspicious of TD but lacked confidence in your own reads or were concerned about being on the same wagon as Mastin.

What do you mean by a "town-based" or "scum-based" consensus in the last paragraph? Do you mean a consensus built by scum, or a consensus that the player in question is scum?

[Cephrir]

Your strongest townreads are weird.

[Cephrir]

Ah, that list isn't as odd as I thought it was. I thought that wagon was mostly lurkaderps for some reason. Vezok and farside are still odd choices, but I'll allow the other two. Out of curiosity, do you feel worse about the House slot since it was replaced, or better?

[Cephrir]

That was approximately the right answer.

[Cephrir]

Don't take that to mean I'm not still concerned about you, though, because I am.

[Cephrir]

Today in the news: Peregrine's iso still devoid of useful information.

More on this at 10.

[Cephrir]

I think it is safe to say scum are going to have some powerful roles here.

[Cephrir]

Solar is still scum, 4437 is a scum post, can we lynch them yet?

no u

[Cephrir]

I think either something's deeply wrong or this is another Advance Wars and I'm not sure which!

[Cephrir]

I've been slowly getting back into the roll of current events but I still feel like a lot of my reads are ????

[Cephrir]

I'm keep a slide of players\neighbourhoods. I don't have detailed notes for how I made each of the deductions/jumps. From memory:
- You weren't Egyptian because I am
- You weren't Greek because you replied to House saying you wanted to be in Olympus
- MS claimed Chinese and his two neighbours pretty early on D1
- Pegged {You\SW\Bitmap\xx} as Roman from the rest initially because "strongman with 2 kills" sounded liked Hercules and I'm pretty sure I spotted a Cupid thing from SW
- Reaffirmed when MS said 'Janus' after being Bitmap'd

This post is pretty town. If ooba was scum, the true answer to how he knew the pantheons would be because he is scum. However, he was able to produce all of these things, none of which I really picked up on, 40 minutes after the question was asked. I believe this would take longer than 40 minutes to fabricate, and furthermore, I don't think scum would have seen reason to care about the pantheon issue enough to have something like this ready.

[Cephrir]

Xombie - I don't see you claiming a strong town read on zzzx. What is your read on him?

I am also interested in the reverse of this.

[Cephrir]

none of which I really picked up on

Obviously I picked up on my own neighborhood and MS claiming Chinese. But the other things.

[Cephrir]

nitpick re " true answer to how he knew the pantheons would be because he is scum.": not necessarily. hoodmasonrys such as mine would not have scum, and thus scum still require deductive skills to determine the neighborhoods.

The deduction would be much easier, though.

[Cephrir]

I don't think TD's block of mastin is particularly town, as someone who actually read mastin's posts yesterday.

[Cephrir]

Is it the fact that it confirms he actually did read mastin's posts yesterday?

[Cephrir]

Because he seemingly forgot, voted other wagons, and hasn't pushed it in the intervening 9 days?

[Cephrir]

I don't follow.

[Cephrir]

Well we need to decide whether we're lynching him today or not, so it kinda matters.

[Cephrir]

I think either something's deeply wrong or this is another Advance Wars and I'm not sure which!

I've been slowly getting back into thre roll of current events but I still feel like a lot of my reads are ????

What do you think is deeply wrong? Which of your reads are ???

What I mean is, either this is going to be a not terribly difficult romp to the finish because none of the charismatic players are scum, or a bunch of them are and I'm getting completely fooled.

I don't have much in the way of really serious scumreads. There is no one I feel passionate about attacking. There are only ???s: Skybird, ace, beast, twie, td, sorta rach pending desperately needed review, mask, ank, tso, and to a lesser degree bitmap and maybe heartless.

Yes I know that's half the damn player list. And I'm just trying to figure out which of those are ???ier than others but that's made difficult by things like beast not posting.

Farside' proven gladiator ability is a good vouch for farside town. She is playing extremely differently from what I normally see but that's fine.

I'm trying to look at everything. There are several people who can affect the lynch through, governing, semi-gladiating, double vote, vote thief, acquiring votes through death. I'm not sure every single one of those are town.

Yup. But affecting the lynch does not MEAN town, it is affecting a lynch in a way that prevents the possibility of scum being lynched in a single day, which means town.


What I mean is: if farside scum used this on Lylo day and made the three targets all town, it's a win. Unless there's some restriction, for example "at least 1 scum must be in your picks", this heavily implies farside town.

Similar for a govern, which we have not seen so we can force heartless to use it and show us.

Meanwhile, gaining votes through death is also overpowered. Beast scum, if surviving till Lylo, can win games. But he also mentioned that his vote can reset to 0. So that is moot.

Oh my god stop setup speccing and just fucking scumhunt.

I should make an alt called "just fucking scumhunt." I'd like it if I could somehow get site policy on board with policy lynching too much setup spec.

[Cephrir]

Did you try out your secret meta tell?

I've been waiting to tell you how bad it is.

Still a work in progress.

I also haven't done the meta.

Right now, though, my theory says you're townish. I just have no idea whether the theory is accurate!

[Cephrir]

Your face is terrible

[Cephrir]

TSO is probably scum, this isn't really news.

[Cephrir]

i don't recall a sphincteritis about voting from EITHER ffery or f16 in games i've played w/ them.

ffery

What games have YOU been playing?

Also, I believe those TD posts could still come from scum, yes. But you will notice that I am voting for beastcharizard! Half the players in this game have someone vouching for them; I don't think this one is anything but a read and I don't especially trust TSO here anyway. Furthermore, Magua is also in that neighborhood (IIRC? Well anyway SOMEONE is) and I haven't seen them expressing similar feelings that I recall.

[Cephrir]

Which incidentally I have never known TSO to do~

[Cephrir]

FT if scum could easily bus PV. If he thought that PV was a liability to his team, he'd sooner bus than claim that past experience with PV made him cautious of PV. And I looked through his games: he did in fact play with town and scum PV and PV's play was fairly low-activity in both games as far as I recall. I'm not as sure in my townread of FT though and that's bugging me a little but not enough to vote him today.

i don't know how you could even begin to think you could predict something like this w/ any kind of accuracy

I don't understand this post!

[Cephrir]

Heartless has been a little more proactive in the neighborhood than they have been here, and that makes me feel a little better than I would otherwise, but they still worry me a bit. Nonetheless, it isn't really at the brim of my radar (pretend this analogy made sense please thanks) and I expect I'll have a lot more to read them on by the time I would start to get worried about things as they are now. If that makes any sense.

[Cephrir]

I don't think talking in neighborhoods is detrimental as long as you actually remember to talk in the thread too.

[Cephrir]

Don't waste your time on pointless exercises -.-

[Cephrir]

i don't recall a sphincteritis about voting from EITHER ffery or f16 in games i've played w/ them.

ffery

What games have YOU been playing?

Also, I believe those TD posts could still come from scum, yes. But you will notice that I am voting for beastcharizard! Half the players in this game have someone vouching for them; I don't think this one is anything but a read and I don't especially trust TSO here anyway. Furthermore, Magua is also in that neighborhood (IIRC? Well anyway SOMEONE is) and I haven't seen them expressing similar feelings that I recall.

Seriously? Me, Magua and TSO have all vouched for beast and gave reasons, but somehow you forgot.

Well, your reasoning must not have been very good or I'd remember it.

How come our neighbourhood's protection on Beast isn't seen as relevant yet mastin's doing the same to multiple people and it is?

Because mastin says they're 100% town for sure, and had better have amazing reasons to back that up. She's accountable. If this turns out to be wrong she'll look incredibly stupid.

You guys are just using "reads" as far as I can tell. Or things about "scum wouldn't have vote manipulation powers" which given that there are at least 6 or so of those in the setup, I'm gonna go ahead and disagree with.

[Cephrir]

Ceph/ooba/Heartless/Rach.

[Cephrir]

I'm thinking if we assume there's 6 mafia, then at least 1 of the neighborhoods is all town. I'm guessing the likelihood that any neighborhood has more than 1 mafia is low, though it's possible there's a neighborhood with 2 mafia. I doubt there's more than 1. I know some folks will resist this kind of analysis, but I'm talking about common sense here.

It's not common sense. It's neighborhood spec. Do you happen to be right? Yeah maybe. Even probably. I get frustrated with it because I hate it when players assume the mod is an idiot; they usually aren't. If there couldn't be two scum in one neighborhood, the game would be trivial. If the mod is smart and randomized or pseudorandomized the placement of scum, I could achieve the exact same results and the same "there is probably one scum in each of these groups" if I separated the playerlist by grouping it on player number I could say the same thing and be exactly as likely to be right.

Please just scumhunt -.-

Especially given that that's basically what you wound up doing anyway. The frame is a waste of words.

[Cephrir]

Ceph, I disagree. I know a bunch of folks are gonna hate that I'm speculating about neighborhoods and shit, but I think it's relevant to analyzing probabilities. And mafia's ultimately a game of probability, so... I think it's quite helpful.

Everyone has an X/Y chance of being scum. That's the only probability I'm concerned with.

Actually, no one but me seems to be objecting to scumhunting this way, but what happens when you get it wrong and lynch an entire neighborhood because "that one just has to have scum in it" and it doesn't?

[Cephrir]

btw I'm not saying there's 1 scum in each neighborhood -- my analysis is more nuanced than that -- but I do think most neighborhoods are some distribution of alignments, rather than all town and all scum. And probably no neighborhood is all scum, which is also an important point of analysis. Those are starting points that don't assume the mod is stupid -- it's just probability.

I'm beginning to think I need to illustrate by creating a parody.

[Cephrir]

That and feeling wrong the entire game make up my reasons.

[Cephrir]

Also, I'm tempted to start replacing out of these 500 neighbors games until people stop neighborhood speccing.

You might as well go outside and roll a bunch of dice on the ground.

[Cephrir]

Anti, you should probably get in here and talk. It's not going to go well if we are erroneously scumreading you guys.

You do realize this is exactly the kind of vague threat that's been pissing them off, right?

[Cephrir]

@SW: I don't know.

[Cephrir]

Those are weird reasons to scumread me.

But I'm not super interested in my usual narcissistic selfmeta right now.

[Cephrir]

You're probably getting lynched today, how do you feel about that?

[Cephrir]

What are your thoughts about Heartless?

I just got a post eaten in response to this. Let's try again.

I have been feeling better and better about them. I think their frustration with you has come off as pretty genuine and think some of their criticisms have been valid. I've liked some of our interactions in the neighborhood. They seem predisposed to see me as arguing with them when I feel like I'm just giving them wishy washy "you have a point but I dunno man" replies. Interpreting things like that unfavorably is very Antihero, at least (I haven't seen enough TTH to know this). I would think they'd have played enough games with you to expect you to be a bit sit-on-handsy, though I do kinda feel like Falcon isn't really doing much either lately and that's not typical of him. I think the fact they're a bit at odds with you is a good thing for the game and it's giving me material to work with regarding both of you.

I do not think they are obvtown yet, and that's something I have seen both of them be at different times. Neighborhood Antihero has felt more like the one I'm used to than Thread Antihero has.

This post was a lot better the first time I wrote it.

[Cephrir]

I think the fact they're a bit at odds with you is a good thing for the game

What I mean by this is that if either of your slots was scum, I feel that's something that could be easily missed. My inclination is that they are not scum, but scrutiny is never a bad thing.

[Cephrir]

Welcome Ozgin!

Help me understand how your vote count varying with the number of night kills makes you town?

[Cephrir]

Would you have liked it better if they asked the functionally identical question "what are your thoughts on this?"

[Cephrir]

I'm not sure what to make of this question. Not the question itself but the context and the reason behind Ceph making this post.

The tone clearly indicates that Ceph thinks Heartless is right because he explained their thoughts for them.

I was interested in their line of questioning and it seemed to me like you were taking issue with their wording instead of answering it.

[Cephrir]

Welcome Ozgin!

Help me understand how your vote count varying with the number of night kills makes you town?

Ceph, I've never seen this mechanic. To me it looks like it could be either town or scum. So if there is a page in the wiki that says varying votes are always town say so and I'll go read it.

It could.

That's just a weird way to ask someone to approach the game.

[Cephrir]

It is one of the reasons I wonder about Cephrir's manipulative tendencies. Why say anything at all when saying nothing would have been the most beneficial to town overall?

Do I have to give the whole "I do not calculate as town, I just say whatever I'm thinking all the time" speech again? I don't think town should have to monitor themselves, it's a pretty simple philosophy.

[Cephrir]

Ceph freely admits that as town, he wades into lines of questioning. But he also said that in Tales while manipulating my and Titan's interactions. So, it is not just that he invades people's lines of questioning, it is more his intent behind the invasion.

I am still trying to stop doing this. I can't help myself sometimes. I like being heard and I know that I won't remember to say whatever I was thinking at the time if I sit on it until the conversation is over.

[Cephrir]

Yes, I had a tone that implied I thought the issue were taking was not important.

I continue to think it is not important.

[Cephrir]

As someone who's not you, I don't think the push feels weak and insubstantial.

[Cephrir]

I thought a third party perspective was actually useful on that point but sure whatever.

[Cephrir]

I'd lynch Ankamius in a heartbeat, but ya know, we can't.

[Cephrir]

Rach hasn't done anything to remove my townread of her.

Disappearing and other people towning more don't change your stance?

[Cephrir]

Rach hasn't done anything to remove my townread of her.

Disappearing and other people towning more don't change your stance?

Why does the fact that she was busy IRL and needed to replace out affect anyone's read on her?

She seemed to be coming disengaged before that.

Eh.

[Cephrir]

^ This read flip feels like the scumteam coached him into it. I don't buy that a townie goes back, "re-reads" and comes away with the thought that "FT seems to be a very try-hard sort of character." It just feels fake overall.

This is exactly what I was going to say. What prompted that? I thought he had read FT's posts initially and decided based on that, but now it seems he's just now reading them for the first time...?

[Cephrir]

So I think I have to retract my earlier statement bout Four not being scummy, because after reading a little bit of their ISO, from the gate they seem to be a very try-hard sort of character. Since I'm unfamiliar with the players' meta, I'm not sure if that's just how they play town, or it's a scum trying to overcompensate for the fact they're scum by pushing hard on other people.

Regardless, it stands out to me as something fairly abnormal.

This is also just a terrible reason to vote someone in and of itself.

[Cephrir]

[Cephrir]

I was responding to 4972 but didn't care enough to specify after you ninjad me.

[Cephrir]

I do other things with the page open sometimes.

[Cephrir]

So I'm not sure why you'd question Solar's ability to read me or predict how I play if you'd read these posts? Which is a problem. Because while I understand missing F-16's post based on the sheer number of posts he's made, missing my post doesn't seem like you're giving much thought to my alignment, and that's unforgivable given Today's circumstances.

Meta is great and all, and personally I put some stock in it, but you can't expect everyone to bow down and be subserviant because one person who knows you well has a townread. People like to come to their own conclusions in this game and I think they'd be foolish not to. Sometimes someone will choose to trust another player, but we're a vain species and being too trusting in this game is *usually* dumb anyway, objectively, even if it works. It's not like meta is never wrong.

Not sure. I haven't really thought about a lot of reads. D1, a large part of my townread was on how the wagon on him built and he kept being pushed for bad reasons. I need to re-evaluate him based on how the AP wagon went through as opposed to his when AP is in general the more persuasive player.

Most of his posts feel fairly null. What are your thoughts on him at the moment?

That doesn't count for much when AP was not actually here to be persuasive.

Right now, I'm working with a theory that Beast/Ace/Heartless are scum. I think Heartless voting me doesn't square with their supposed massive scumread on Ankamius, and it only makes sense if you think they're defending beast. Ace's initial vote for beast, but then backtracking, also suggests an association with beast. Thoughts?

I think you "holistic scumhunters" are batty, but whatever floats your boat I guess. Could you talk to me about what their Ankamius read has to do with voting you being nonsensical? I am not paying much attention to the relationship there but I'd say chances are I'm going to think it's okay to agree with your scumreads. Granted, I'm baffled that anyone who's read your posts is voting you, and if they allegedly think everyone is town it still makes sense to me to lynch the less helpful player who also is going to eventually get lynched no matter how you slice it. I agree with you that it seems there are possible associations between ace and beast. It also seems to me that ace is just kind of scum.

Tired and going to sleep.

Skimmed the pages, will review them later, but in the meantime:

@Ozgin:

When you claimed, why did you only claim your vote ability? Walk me through your thought process here.

Oh yeah, uh... could we get the rest of that claim?

also, i am defending beast, because the probability of that slot flipping scum is pretty low and now the case is just getting overhyped so that we don't have to be pissed about having to settle for a suboptimal lynch

other than that, yeah, of course the vote doesn't "square" with out scumreads because we're not scumreading any of you.

And FT is an optimal lynch in what universe?

I don't think it's overhyping to note that beast is certainly in my POE pool and I think he's more likely scum than FT and TD. I have no problem with lynching TD but mildly prefer beast and TD isn't happening anyway.

So I'm not sure why you'd question Solar's ability to read me or predict how I play if you'd read these posts? Which is a problem.

not a problem at all

b/c, you see, at the core of all meta reads is squishy, stinky diarrhea. ALL. OF. THEM. yes, even yours, person reading this post. i'm talking to YOU SPECIFICALLY. it's all bullshit. all of it. that's because it's formed around this erroneous idea that you "know what someone would do" and it's formed around this set of "rules" that are rigid and don't factor in pretty important things (like... say... oh i don't know, THE FACT PV HAD A REALLY FUCKING WEIRD ROLE THAT PROBABLY WOULD INFLUENCE THE DAY PLAY AND BUSSING). and then to try to construct a hypothetical "this is what ft would do as scum" based on these "rules" is just fucking bananas because you're using something CRUDE AND GENERAL to try to predict something REALLY SPECIFIC AND PRECISE. it's like trying to hit a target the size of a dime from a mile away with a shotgun.

And you can do that because you're a good scum player, but circumventing meta is hard to maintain for an entire game, and moreover some players can be read by it. I also have no particular reason to think FT is a good scum player -- I guess he could be, but everything I've heard leads me to believe he gets apathetic pretty consistently.

Ceph freely admits that as town, he wades into lines of questioning. But he also said that in Tales while manipulating my and Titan's interactions. So, it is not just that he invades people's lines of questioning, it is more his intent behind the invasion.

I am still trying to stop doing this. I can't help myself sometimes. I like being heard and I know that I won't remember to say whatever I was thinking at the time if I sit on it until the conversation is over.

we should hydra

That's a funny thing to cause you to say that, haha.

I'd be down though, as long as you don't expect me to be a good hydra partner because I am soooo not that.

[Cephrir]

Currently, I think there's a high chance that all three of you are town. You at least fall into the bucket of 'scum player who could be playing well'.
- TD's roleblock and the fact that he hasn't even voted one of the two counter wagons makes him town
- I had a mild 'town because he doesn't care' on beast throughout and Oz's switch on you sounded genuine

This is the biggest bullshit explanation I've heard, ever. Earlier, you agreed with farside's 3 choices for scum. Yet now we're all town? Okay. Sure.

TD's roleblock didn't mean shit to you when you told farside you agreed with her 3 choices. So that's bullshit.

Re: beast -- you're spouting more bullshit. You've been gearing up to vote him all day, all the way until farside used her role. When farside asked you 3 players who you think are scum, beast was one of them. Even before that, you said you'd be happy joining a wagon on beast. Yet when farside finally uses her role, you vote me? That "mild town" on beast throughout is bull fucking shit, man.

Ooba's scum. This post, right here, is a 100% bullshit attempt to justify voting me. And it certainly doesn't square with anything he's said about me, TD, or beast the entirety of this Day.

Hm.

I eagerly await a response to this.

[Cephrir]

If Ankamius is scum, then probability that farside/me are scum in same neighborhood with Pere and Ankamius goes down. I know you don't buy all the neighborhood shit, but as a matter of brute probability, 3 scum in a single neighborhood is low probability.

Oh, I thought you had an actual reason

Also, this isn't how math works. Once we've seen that scumflip the probabilities change.

[Cephrir]

@Cephrir
As long as you don't disappear during the game, I would be excited to hydra with you unless you do. Then

My flaking days ended in 2008!

[Cephrir]

What I'm saying is,

P(3 scum in one neighborhood|no information) is indeed very low.

P(3 scum in one neighborhood|2 scum in that neighborhood) = P(any given player being scum|the setup).

[Cephrir]

The Eleventh Commandment: Thou Shalt Not Like Anyone!

[Cephrir]

No matter how you size it up, the statement "I had a mild townread on beast throughout" is a little difficult to get around

[Cephrir]

VOTE: Tiphainedeath

[Cephrir]

I was thinking "Tammy and the boytoys" would actually be a thing.

I already have a team, too!

[Cephrir]

Mask's posts gave me the wiggins re: ace being scum sketchily trying to slide onto beast.

[Cephrir]

Not helping.

[Cephrir]

Not particularly giving a fuck.

[Cephrir]

I don't really think my post was hard to understand, I think you just don't want to understand it!

[Cephrir]

But Nacho

It's /shiny/

[Cephrir]

I like doing stupid things, though. That's like, my jam.

[Cephrir]

I can come back if that sequence of posts doesn't sadden you.

I still don't care all that much either way, though if beast flips town my desire to lynch ace will be increasing

[Cephrir]

Does what Mask said not bother you?

Pedit: Possibly because he did roleblock mastin and claims like I do?

[Cephrir]

I guess I would expect his scumbuddies to argue him out of such a retarded night action.

[Cephrir]

I didn't move because I think TD is scummier than I did before. I just got cold feet on beast.

Pedit: I did. Because when it comes to claiming, I am not actually good at playing scum!

[Cephrir]

I'm sure I don't have to remind you that you didn't want me to claim all my actions honestly in League of Legends, and you witnessed firsthand in Tales how itchy and terrible I got from not having a claim in mind for days, followed by claiming my rather scummy actual role. I have learned nothing.

Why am I scaring you?

[Cephrir]

I don't know what I did, but I'm sorry!

[Cephrir]

I still want you to tell me why I shouldn't care about Mask's posts!

[Cephrir]

Do I need puppies to get you back in the thread right now? I will bring out the puppies.

I must admit, the reference back to that gave me a moment of are you cassoing me again. D:

[Cephrir]

Before I forget: TD is not at L-1 right now; Mask does not have a vote, unless my actions are breaking again.

[Cephrir]

Oh. K.

Mask said something about a hammer, so.

[Cephrir]

i do wonder why people are voting beast/ozgin. I just read his iso. And he spent half the game dealing with house accusing him of being a scummy vote nullifier. He's been on the defensive for a while. and then was pushing skybird for a while.

That's pretty much it. I don't see that as sccummy. In fact his "i don't get it, this is messed up" defense looked pretty towny to me. Ozgin's posts have been pretty town too. I'd lynch TD first

Umm in the neighborhood, you said you voted him for scummy reasons and said you were working on that special "something else". Now I wonder WHO'S scummy reason.

FourTrouble is nicer than before. In fact he's a gentlemen!

I think Ozgin or TD would be better eliminations. Let's see where the votes are at.

i do wonder why people are voting beast/ozgin. I just read his iso. And he spent half the game dealing with house accusing him of being a scummy vote nullifier. He's been on the defensive for a while. and then was pushing skybird for a while.

That's pretty much it. I don't see that as sccummy. In fact his "i don't get it, this is messed up" defense looked pretty towny to me. Ozgin's posts have been pretty town too. I'd lynch TD first

So why were you voting him in the first place? And why are you still voting him if you think he's town?

You'd lynch TD while keeping your vote on beast...

Why TD? Why TD

first

?

? i'm voting TD. idk why your problem is. I never thought beast was scum. Convince me that he is and maybe i'll vote that way. but i don't feel it right now

Bubububut you call him by name ina pt

Ace you are nice young man, why you wanna do that? Why?

This was what weirded me out. It makes me think that

A) ace is scum

and

B) it isn't with beast.

On the other hand, unflipped associatives are a big no no and I should probably stop it.

[Cephrir]

I'm sure I don't have to remind you that you didn't want me to claim all my actions honestly in League of Legends, and you witnessed firsthand in Tales how itchy and terrible I got from not having a claim in mind for days, followed by claiming my rather scummy actual role. I have learned nothing.

Why am I scaring you?

Your play regarding claims is due to your fear of getting caught out by errant night actions. No, you aren't (weren't) very creative about them. But you are safe and calculating about them (aka making sure to take actions advantageous to scum while being believable to town). TD-scum doesn't have those qualities. It doesn't make sense to compare his claim game to your claim game even if you group them under the blanket "bad" descriptor.

This is true.

I guess if they were blocking mastin on purpose even I'm smart enough not to come out and claim that. I could see it from a scumteam that included some insane, ballsy players, but I don't think the requisite players are actually in this game.

[Cephrir]

I just posted the reason ;~;

Of course it's not because of the role thing. I rarely* put stock in things like that even from players who didn't just do it as scum. Especially not in a game where 10 different people have claimed to be able to do that very thing.

* = but I still think my own role does make me town

But fine.

VOTE: Ozgin

I'll stop rabbit holing for today.

[Cephrir]

I'm sorry ;~;

If you turn out to be scum after this I will cry for how gullible I am.

[Cephrir]

You don't like the one that tries to think for himself

It's okay, he's pretty bad at it.

[Cephrir]

I already explained what caused me concern as well as why I changed back. Ozgin is scummier independently but I flipped out about an associative issue when I probably shouldn't have.

Nacho guilt is a powerful sedative.

[Cephrir]

Y'all just hate it when I do anything.

[Cephrir]

His lack of vote is a recent development.

[Cephrir]

See?

Also, what the fuck TD.

[Cephrir]

A) I wasn't being entirely serious in that post
B) Behavioral changes were the entire point of that account

Advance Wars is probably the towniest I have ever been as Cephrir.

[Cephrir]

I've built myself to a place where different people expect different things of me and I can't possibly do them all at once.

You think town Ceph is aggressive and confident.
Nacho thinks literally the opposite of that.

What is a boy to do?

[Cephrir]

So you'll just have to suffer with whatever mood I'm in at any given moment, I guess~

[Cephrir]

Oh yeah. There sorta is.

Granted, I don't care for the thought processes that went on during that time (don't like as in disagree with, not find scummy) but it certainly looks like this game was on his mind the day in question.

[Cephrir]

She wasn't day 1. I stopped paying attention after that, though.

[Cephrir]

If I had to guess I might have to say that the issue is probably the really obvious dripping caustic sarcasm

Not sure though

[Cephrir]

Please, please, please stop calling me scum for this. You are embarrassing yourself.

[Cephrir]

Jesus fucking christ.

I almost want to replace out I'm so tired of putting up with you.