Board Games Mafia -- Game Over!

[Thok]

Waves hi. I've read over the thread once. I'll probably need to do it again.

Feel free to ask me questions about stuff, although I don't know how much I can say about Shadowlurker's actions.

[Thok]

For what it's worth, RR hasn't posted anywhere on the site since around March 6. I suspect he's legitimately busy/unable to post.

[Thok]

Waves hi. I've read over the thread once. I'll probably need to do it again.

Feel free to ask me questions about stuff, although I don't know how much I can say about Shadowlurker's actions.

Gimme a list, Thokkybunny.

I need to do a reread, but the problem with this game is that so many people are giving off smart/stupid vibes that it's overwhelming the scummy/town vibes.

@Battlemage-if you are a roleblocker, would you have blocked RR last night? (Do not say whether or not you actually are a roleblocker, just answer the question I specifically asked.)

[Thok]

RR who are you planning on investigating?

You are fishing. Blatantly fishing.

[Thok]

How would knowing who he is gonna investigate benefit scum may I ask?

Scum could choose to kill RRcop's target to make his investigation basically worthless; this also allows a scum roleblocker to do things other than roleblocking RRcop that night. There are also various roles that could possibly exist in the game that scum could use to mess with RR's investigation if they knew his target.

How would knowing RR's target be useful information?

[Thok]

But then, so is this...

@Battlemage-if you are a roleblocker, would you have blocked RR last night? (Do not say whether or not you actually are a roleblocker, just answer the question I specifically asked.)

Do you honestly believe my question is anywhere near the same level of scumminess as Twito's? I specifically asked BM to not reveal his role, but to only reveal if he would have roleblocked RR if he was hypothetically a roleblocker. (I realize on rereading it that I messed up the grammar, the first are in my post should be a should be a were). Moreover, we already know that if RR is town, then something messed with his investigation; I'm not trying to out new information.

I feel BM's answer to this question will give me useful insight into BM's alignment; I don't see what Twitotown could want from his question.

[Thok]

Kison is still the play for today though, not Twito btw. Thok, how is it rolefishing if he's ALREADY CLAIMED!?!?!?

I never claimed it's rolefishing. You can fish for information other than roles.

[Thok]

Curious-BM's response isn't what I expected (it's trying to have things both ways, by claiming that he didn't block RR, while saying that RR deserved to be blocked).

IH-given me a quick summary of why Kison is the lynch for today.

[Thok]

Thok needs to make a comment about anti-fist shaking laws now.

I new I had some gimmick I had forgotten.

(Stupid anti fist shaking laws!)

[Thok]

I am surprised at the lack of Kison deathage.

Right now I'm not seeing the case for Kison deathage. I'm considering the idea that all of Kison/RR are townies who have misread each other (and misread livingod yesterday); in this situation you have the potential for a scum group involving IH/Battle Mage (and maybe others; still need to push my reread).

[Thok]

From what I can tell the storyline is

Livingod looked scummy yesterday.
RR thought Twito was scummier and went crazy.
Kison thought RR was trying to protect livingod because of the above and pressured him into voting livingod.

Today, lots of FOS's for Kison,

little analysis of other possibilities for a lynch

.

The bolded part is what worries me; I mean, shouldn't we be looking at what caused the LG wagon in the first place? You've got people like IH going "Lynch Kison, Lynch Kison, Oh by the way I'm to busy to explain it to the replacements when they ask."

Kison might be scum, but his lynch just feels wrong at the moment.

[Thok]

I think the following quesion would be useful.

If Kison is lynched and comes up town, what sorts of people will you look at?
If Kison is lynched and comes up scum, what sorts of people wil you look at?

[Thok]

@Kison-give me your opinions of Nightfall, Ectomancer, Fritzler, and one other player of your choice.

[Thok]

I need to know why Kison is still alive.

This vexes me.

Because I think the arguments for him being dead aren't particularly good?

Kison's reactions to CES/Twito shows that he's either scum or townie who doesn't know how to deal with weird playstyles. The problem is that Kison's behavior with respect to RR doesn't actually tell me if he's scum or townie who doesn't know how to deal with weird playstyles. I haven't seen a good argument why I should favor one choice over the other.

(I also find it weird that nobody's asked me about my choice of people for Kison to look at.)

[Thok]

Thok, did you not look at that post you requested of me? I think you'd at least comment on it, or did I miss it?

I did see the post you made. It just repeated the arguments I saw before, none of which resolve the issues I have with this lynch.

Basically, the storyline seems to be livingod acts suspcious. Kison votes him. RR goes crazy. Kison accuses RR of being scum with livingod. RR hammers livingod.

The next day, now knowing livingod is protown, Kison decides RR is also and goes after Twito. Everybody jumps on Kison.

I'd like to see an explanation of either
a. Why my storyline is wrong
b. Why my storyline implies Kison is scum rather than a person who can't read crazy people

[Thok]

Gee, maybe knowing livingod's alignment changed his mind about the flow of the game?

Your last point is somewhat reasonable; I need to look at who Kison has called scum and why.

[Thok]

My last post wasn't clear.

On Day 1 he was pushing for a livingod lynch
On Day 2 he was pushing for people on the livingod wagon I believe.

On day 1, he didn't know LG's alignment. On day 2 he did. Would you prefer that he attacked people who weren't voting Livingod today?

[Thok]

Thok.... if he's on the wagon.... then he must have agreed he was scummy in some way.

If Livingod WAS scummy, then how can he justify an attack for someone being on a town lynching wagon?

By looking at individual cases, seeing who got on the wagon for what reasons, and trying to figure out which of those were scum pressing an easy wagon and which were misguided/sheepish townies?

His first wagon today was to go after Twito. From what I can tell, that vote actually had little do with Twito being on the Livingod wagon, and everything to do with Kison being happier with RR when livingod came up town.

[Thok]

Serious question IH; if Kison is protown, who do you think he would have gone after at the start of day 2?

[Thok]

Yes, I get that you're accusing Kison of being a hypocrite. But you seem to also be arguing that Kison can't possibly be allowed to change his mind once he learns new information.

Kison's suspicions day 1 were heavily built on the assumption that livingod is scum. In the meantime, we've learned that livingod is town. Is it surprising that Kison has changed his assessment of various players?

[Thok]

well we only have 1 week, and the only large wagon, is on Kison, who currently is looking fairly protown.
Im going to need to reread and come up with something later.

Why do you think Kison is looking fairly protown? I actually have him very much in my "I'm not sure if he's scum or town" grey area; I just dislike the vibes I get from his voters.

[Thok]

That's 7? I'm quite willing to vote BM. (I did notice the first post Jayln mentioned, which was why I asked BM to say if he would have roleblocked RR.)

Glork

, are you allowing Fritzler's proxy to me?

[Thok]

It seems weird of Kison to suggest that the second kill is a result of an SK: Glork's flavor suggests only one scum group, and it's much more likely that the extra kill was a result of a vig or something of the inventor's backfiring.

@Fritz-cool beans.

IH-quick question (answer it without doing any research): if Battle Mage scum were to hypothetically name three players to look at, how many of his scum partners do you think he'd include in that group?

[Thok]

IMHO, 3 of the however many Mafiosi are: Livingod, ShadowLurker and Frustrian.

So my question wasn't actually hypothetical, as you might have guessed.

Livingod is known town.
Shadowlurker is now me, who according to Fritz is town.
Frustian is now Kison.

(All of these were semiOMGUS replies by Battle Mage as part of the early bandwagon.)

[Thok]

@Sefer-Obviously, there's no reason for you to trust Fritz or me. But if you believe Fritz's comment that he didn't start with a win condition, then his comments about me are a reasonable followup to that claim.

@Jalyn-Settlers of Catan has a reputation of being more complex/more strategic then games like Monopoly or Risk. I'd actually had been trying to decide if it was simply a modern game vs older game theme, but that would suggest the Cranium claim is scum, and I don't really agree with that.

A look at Settlers' wiki page gives a link to a page on German style board games; that might be a better place to look for potential scum roles.

[Thok]

Kison, why do you think that CES was likely the scum kill?

[Thok]

and I'm saying, Sefer, that it's distracting from more fruitful talk, and until we can see more role names, speculation is pointless at the moment, because Glork is a good enough mod to not make it that broken where a role name is going to tell us that much.

The last largish theme game that Glork was significantly involved in was Chrono Trigger (he was backup mod) and there I was able to deduce the flavor of the two scum groups by about day 3, just from knowing some role names. Settlers is a game with a fairly relevant history to it.

We also get some info from seeing various people's reactions to the scum setup possibilities.

[Thok]

Okay, I see.

Well, with this whole theory out there, I feel that it is necessary to claim. For if it is true, then I would surely die the coming night.

I am Masons with IH. I am Axis&Allies, he is Risk. Innocence isn't guaranteed, which is why I'm claiming.

Curious. What is your source for IH's name (i.e. did you hear it from Glork or from IH)?

I don't think Glork would do the scum mason thing.

[Thok]

Ectomancer-what info did Glork give you about your sanity?

[Thok]

Ecto, if you are sane, it's highly doubtful Twito is a godfather. RR basically telegraphed who his night choice was going to be; it would make little sense for scum to roleblock a cop who was known to be investigating an investigation immune godfather.

[Thok]

Unless we have a lot of power, two scum groups seems unlikely; that strikes me as needing at least 6 scum (a minimum of 3 people per scum group) which is already reaching 33% scum. It also means that town would have a difficult time winning even under perfect play without getting crosskill help.

For what it's worth, neither Axis and Allies nor Risk falls into the Eurogames category. (This list of Game Genres probably does a better job explaining what's happening genrewise then I could.)

(I too fell into the spend too much time clicking around on BGG page trap).

[Thok]

Compare this game to CT-town was much more powerful there (at least IMHO, although there were a lot of weird JoaT type roles).

I also have the sneaking suspicion that Fritzler should be counted at around 1/4-1/3 of a scum in this setup (that is at the beginning of the game, he's worth about 1/4-1/3 scum; now he's significantly less likely to be scum).

I realized that my argument about GF Twito falls flat if we have an SK RB (which appeals to my sense of Glork design sense; more generally I suspect that if we have an SK, then it probably has a decent amount of buffing.)

[Thok]

I'm also a little confused about the Fritzler thing. Ectomancer seemed very confident about the die roll thing, which seemed like a rather wild theory to me and Thok is also discussing Fritzler like he's not an abnormal role. Is there some other game in which you guys have seen something like this before?

I don't believe Fritz has a standard role, but I believe roles similar to what role he's suggested he has have shown up before.

Sorry to be vague, but I probably should be careful to avoid providing Fritz with a free role claim, in the off chance that he is lying.

[Thok]

For what it's worth, neither Axis and Allies nor Risk falls into the Eurogames category. (This list of Game Genres probably does a better job explaining what's happening genrewise then I could.)

Risk

is

a Eurogame. See Wikipedia.

Not by any definition I've seen. Eurogames doesn't just mean "made in Europe"; it suggests a certain level of strategy in the game (which basic Risk doesn't really have) and a certain level of snobbishness.

I will note that the Wiki mentions that the Standard variant of Risk played in Europe (Secret Mission Risk) is different from the American version. That's probably worth noting.

[Thok]

@Twito

Name two people other than Kison who are likely to be scum.

[Thok]

Twito-name claim now (you name claimed before the the crash, so it should be easy for you to do again).

Also, please double check with Glork on how you ability works; if you are protown, don't make assumptions about your role.

[Thok]

Thok's post gives scummy wibes to me btw but atm there are names on a scum list ahead of him.

Nah, I'm trying to keep you from making a mistake if you are being dumb. Given that I've seen a bunch of recent examples of people who have played weird power roles poorly because they don't know what they are doing, I want to make sure you have doublechecked what your role does.

[Thok]

So, in other words, you don't know how it would boost a cop. Unless it specifically says it will allow people to act through roleblockers, you shouldn't assume it.

(For example, a booster role could act on a cop by allowing them to ignore investigation immunity, or by giving them role names as well as alignment. Both of these would be fairly reasonable alternativ methods on how a boost would work.)

[Thok]

Let's see-missing posts from me involved a long argument with Ectomancer about what I thought about the Kison wagon and my HackerHuck vote (with IH and Thesp saying some stuff about what they thought was scummy about Kison; Thesp mentioned the BM/Kison interaction-I asked him about the BM/Frustian interaction; he said he felt that further supported his case, and on a reread I agreed with Thesp.) I mentioned my HH vote was because I thought he was avoiding conflict and I felt he knew too much.

@Sefer-we could have two mafia groups. You could also be an investigation immune SK. Less likely, IMHO, Ectomancer could have a weird sanity.

[Thok]

That's weird. I didn't think Ecto's post actually address Jalyn's question.

(I'm here. I know I've been not paying attention to this game. I'm actually up for a Kison lynch given the discussion of his Battle Mage interaction, and I'd like to see him make the massive PBPA type thing he's suggested he'd be willing to do.)

[Thok]

This games sems to have stalled significantly.

vote Kison

, paritally to get it moving again and paritally because of the comments Thesp made about the early BM-Frustian interaction.

[Thok]

Huh. That's a relatively poor analysis. I was hoping for some new insight, or at least a different take on the old insights; basically all you've done mostly is say some stuff about play styles that's painfully obvious. I mean, I could copy and paste your comment about Fritzler and put it in any game he's playing; same to a lesser extent for your comments about Thesp/HH.

And you do things like analyze IH but not Zindaras (when their alignments are probably connected) and Fritzler but not me (there's the weird connection there).

[Thok]

Unless Thesp is doing some extreme bussing, which I can't see, Ectomancer is basically confirmed not breaking mafia.

(We know there is breaking kill mafia and burning kill something (could be mafia, SK or vig)-Thesp was burnt, so he goes into the breaking kill mafia).

I'd like to hear Ectomancer give results, although I've got a feeling I know what those results will be.

[Thok]

Is Frustian still alive? Who is his replacement? I am thinking that they are town at the moment, or at least not part of Thesp's group. Just everyone he mentioned as being "hot" have turned out to be town at the moment.

Frustian was replaced by Kison. You know, the guy we lynched yesterday.

There's aren't any obvious connections between backgammon and Settlers of Catan-Settlers is a fairly modern game (from 1995) while backgamon is much older (the current version seems to date back to 1926, but version of the game date ti much later.)

[Thok]

OK, time for me to get this game moving again.

Neither of last night's kills seemed to be good vig targets in my opinion. I think we're more likely to be dealing with two scum groups or a serial killer. That also makes sense with the number of pro-town power roles that have been claimed and revealed.

Given that Kison came up protown, why wouldn't Thesp have been a good vig target?

Why do you think that scum/SK would target Thesp rather than the multitude of claimed power roles?

------------
I don't like DOS's overreaction in post 81 to Fritzler's FOS on him. On the flipside, Battle Mage used that as an oppurtunity to jump on DOS.
-------------

I'm trying to decide if Thesp and BM are aligned or not.
-------------

Is Nightfall even here?

[Thok]

EBWODP-Looks at the thread and sees Nightfall away message.

[Thok]

What do people think about the idea of a mass claim, given that we've already got 4 claimed power roles outed of the 10 living people?

@Sefer-one thing that I have considered about Zindie/IH is that they are scum masons from two different scum groups who can talk to each other at night. (I don't think this is the case, but I consider it a good idea for the idea to be out there.)

[Thok]

I'm fine with a mass claim; if we go through with it, I'd suggest Thok go first (since he suggested it) and have each person choose the one who will claim next.

Huh? It's fairly clear that any logical mass claim order has Fritzler going before me.

[Thok]

If we're doing claims, I think we should have everyone claim, even those who already have. I'm fine if they go last so they can reread their original ones.

OK why do you think this is a good idea?

[Thok]

I think that with Fritz's claim there's good reason for me to go last. (Fritz's claim was mostly what I was expecting, although I wasn't necessarily expecting Diplomancy as opposed to some other game).

We need to find an order of Sefer, Nightfall, HH, DOS? I don't really care what order they go in among those 4.

[Thok]

I'm not certain I agree with you going last. If you are scum, you could be waiting to hear the other roles so you don't make the mistake of getting counter-claimed. Is there a good reason for Thok to go last?
Also, I'm good with the idea of each claimant choosing the next one.

OK, seriously, does anybody have any compelling argument for me actually being scum (which is the only reason why you should consider not having me go last)? I mean, people are assuming there's complete and total symmetry between all five of me, DOS, HH, Sefer, and Nightfall, which is IMHO complete and total nonsense. I've left a fairly clear paper trail about how I've felt about most things in the game; I'm the only person who actually forced people to say what they felt about Kison.

There's also an incongruity about Sefer in particular; he apparently trusted me enough to follow me with respect to HH yesterday, but apparently doesn't trust me to go late in the claiming chaim.

[Thok]

I'm a little leary about anyone who suggests a mass claim but wants to go last.

I'm leery of a person who hides behind metaprinciple and doesn't think about the actual game situation.

Who of HH, DOS, Nightfall, me would you prefer to go last? (i.e. which one do you think is least likely to be scum?) (I'm leaving you out of this question for obvious reasons.)

[Thok]

I'm really curious what game situation thinks warrants the trust you want the rest of us to put in you. Fritzler's claim? Let's assume that the basic mechanic (choose a player, join his side) is correct. The situation could be what he claimed, that he targeted you and that you're both town. The situation could be that he targeted scum and is now scum; then you could either be amonst the group he targeted (not the way I would go, in that it opens awkward questions if you die first, but possible) or you could be outside his group, at which point he's guessing you're an innocent but doesn't really know (you could be an SK/in a seperate scum group). In that I asked four times over a period of a month and a half whether Fritz was claiming you were town based on role knowledge or just belief before he committed to an answer, I'm not really inclined to assume that he was telling the truth; I don't see any reason not to answer other than keeping the option open of saying "what, Thok's scum? My bad, I just thought he was town then." You've fairly consistantly acted as though it was a reason we should all assume you're town, though, even though he hasn't given a reason for it until now.

It's been blatantly obvious that he was going to claim a mechanic like that given what he had already said.

And generally, if Fritzler say something weird about his role, I'm going to believe the weirdness; the point is that he didn't need to say anything at all about his role or its effects, and Fritzler rarely lies about weirrdness like that.

Also, for him not answering your questions, we're talking about Fritzler, who is currently in massive lurker mode. You should know that Fritzler's lurking is at best a null tell.

Further, this:

There's also an incongruity about Sefer in particular; he apparently trusted me enough to follow me with respect to HH yesterday, but apparently doesn't trust me to go late in the claiming chaim.

is pretty disingenuous; I stated the reason I voted him: I didn't think the Kison wagon was correct and I felt pressure on someone I hadn't gotten a good read on would be helpful. In that you never stated the reason you voted him, I don't see why you felt I was trusting you; I saw a reason that building a HH wagon could be helpful, which is not at all the same as assuming the one who first put a vote down on it is town.

I actually gave my reasons for voting HH at some point-I felt he was attacking as if he knew too much, and that it felt like he was avoiding confrontation. All of this (along with my original HH vote) was removed in the crash. I know HH responded to my reasons; I'm sure he could verify that I did in fact give reasons.

And given that you specifically claimed that you were supporting my HH wagon, yes it's quite reasonable for me to think you were following me. Why did you go after HH and not DOS, who you've claimed you find more suspicious? Why not Fritzler, if you didn't trust his roleclaim? The fact that you went for HH as opposed to others meant in some sense you were trying to take advantage of the fact that I had already gone after him.

So there are many things about the actual game situation that I feel support not giving you a free pass in claiming last. Note that since I've supported Fritz choosing the next person to claim (and so on), you definately wouldn't be claiming first and might end up claiming last if we follow my suggestion. I'm not assuming you are scum, but I'm not going to assume you're not on Fritz's say-so, and the defensiveness you displayed at the notion that you might not go last in a mass claim you brought about doesn't make it easier to trust you.

Basically, your argument is "Fritzler might be lying! We shouldn't let Thok go last!" In order for that to be the case, you need to provide convincing evidence that
a. Fritzler actually is lying (which I feel you haven't done and which there's decent metagame evidence from Fritzler's previous games to support him not lying)
b. That Fritzler lying implies I'm scum (which I feel you haven't done [in fact you've admitted that if Fritzler is scum, I'm not part of his scum group])

Moreover, I think post analysis actually suggests that I'm likely to be protown independent of the whole Fritzler thing. (My interaction with the Kison wagon, for example.) In contrast, I feel like we have much less content from you or Nightfall or DOS to work with.

You're mistaking me being defensive with me being annoyed that people are being thickheaded/me trying to force you to commit to actually providing reasons rather than just hide behind a meta.

Finally, I'll add a few more observations; the group of nonclaimed people probably has 2-3 scum (maybe 4 scum) out of those 5 people, unless something weird has happened. In that situation, a pick the next person to go scenario likely guarantees a scum goes last (as scum won't pick their partners to go); I'd actually prefer that Ecto or Zindaras pick an order.

Finally, unlike most people, I don't suck at making fake role claims. If you honestly think I'm scum, then you should be willing to accept that I've already made up a fake claim (and probably two or three depending on the circumstances) and that I feel confident in picking a game that's unlikely to be counterclaimed but likely to be in the setup. Basically, if I am scum, having me go first to claim will have little to know benefit.

[Thok]

I want Sefer to claim RIGHT now, just because of his express to go last. It stinks of desperation to me.

Why

does he want to go last? It shouldn't make a difference either way if this is a true mass claim, and he is town.

Sefer's never claimed that he wanted to go last (I'm the only person to have made such a claim.) He's suggested that I should go early in the process (originally he wanted me to go first), but Sefer's never asked to go last.

[Thok]

@Sefer-the last time we had a discussion about Fritzler's normal line of play (DS IV on GL), not only was I rgiht about Fritz being town, but I also managed to pick out a large quantity of scum using the fact that the Fritz wagon was poor. (I had other tells that helped me of course). So I'm not exactly thrilled by your feelings about Fritzler here. (I will admit that your feelings about Fritz here are consistent with your feeling about Fritz there, so it's possible that you're just being dumb about this).

I'll accept the possibility that you forgot about me adding on to my comments; the long fight I had with Ectomancer was more memorable than my comments about HH/his response.

You've missed the point about my comment about fake claiming; the point is that I'm not going to make a mistake fake claiming, no matter where I claim. (At best, the odds of me messing up are fairly small). So, in other words, there's not any actual benefit to town for me going early if I am scum (especially since we have no idea yet whether or not scum have fake claims). There is the possibility of considerable benefit to town for me going last if I am town, and of the five people in the claim, I claim that to an outside observer, I have the highest likelihood of being town by far (see the whole "actually do some post analysis people" thing; the point is that my behavior looks townish in retrospect, and that's true even if you ignore everything Fritzler has said).

And I have given reasons for me going last; there's a claimed investigation on me that makes it unlikely I am scum (independent of Fritz's alignment), and I've got a much better posting record IMHO then any of the other people going in the mass claim.

@IH-there was a reason I included Zindaras in my list of people I'd be willing to make the order and not you. While I have no issues with your list per se, I dislike that you've preemptively decided to jump in and make the decision, especially when you've clearly misread what's going on with me and Sefer (I'm the only person who's requested to go last).

[Thok]

That phrase clearly refers to me, as I was the person to suggest the mass claim.

The fact that you wanted Sefer to go "RIGHT NOW" makes me believe that you were in fact trying to control the order of the claims.

[Thok]

I'm pretty sure I'm not one of the two games you've think must be in the setup, but that I am a perfectly reasonable game to be in the setup.

You're involved with an investigation that is only reliable if we believe that Ecto is both protown and insane (and that's ignoring godfather issues); the cop arguement for me being protown actually relies on more assumptions than the cop argument for me being protown (which only requires Fritz to be protown; sanity/godfather issues come for free from that one). While I agree Ecto being town is likely, I think it's quite possible that you are scum with Twito (granted, that would probably require there not to be an investigation immune godfather).

As for your voting record being better than mine, that's a laugh. The only reason you could argue you have a better voting record than me is because you voted BM and I didn't, and that only occured because Battle Mage essentially got quick lynched (I had previously expressed suspicion of BM, and I espressed willingness to vote him in a post that was simulposted with the quicklynch vote). You were a supporter of the Kison wagon until I pointed out that it sucked, then followed me to voting HH.

That said, I think the fact that BM jumped on you on replacing in is a point in your favor (although that's a similarity we both have, as BM OMGUS jumped on Shadowlurker early day 1).

[Thok]

You're involved with an investigation that is only reliable if we believe that Ecto is both protown and insane

You mean protown and sane, yes? His has innocent on Twito and me.

Fair enough, I misremembered his investigations being innocent rather than guilty.

(and that's ignoring godfather issues); the cop arguement for me being protown actually relies on more assumptions than the cop argument for me being protown (which only requires Fritz to be protown; sanity/godfather issues come for free from that one).

I think the likelyhood of Fritz being scum is higher than the likelyhood of Ecto; whether it's higher than the likelyhood of Ecto being insane is something we could debate, since we never got any sanity from RR/Jalyn.

Except, of course, that even if Fritz is scum, I'm likely to be protown anyways. My situation requires multiple things to go wrong for me to be scum (I get P(Fritz town)+P(I'm town if Fritz is scum)); your's requires only one of several things to be wrong (you get something like P(Ecto town)[P(Ecto sane)P(not Godfather)] plus some extra factors since you could be town if Ecto is scum or naive).

I'll give you BM going fast, but you're incorrect on Kison. I was on him day 2 until Jalyn pointed out BM's contradiction, but day 3, after we had more role information, I was never on him. You, on the other hand, spent time telling the town to look for other lynch possiblities day 2 without ever doing so yourself (unless you count HH day 3); you said that the Kison wagon sucked but ended up joining it day 3 (there may have been new arguments by that point, but I don't have time to check at the moment; I'll look into that this afternoon). Your record surrounding Kison isn't very good at all.

Did you freaking read the thread at all during the period lost during the crash? Did you freaking read the various summaries of the crash comments? Thesp and I had a big discussion of the whole Frustian-Battle Mage interaction, which was a new piece of evidence and hadn't been discussed before.

@Ecto-to be honest I'd prefer everybody go in front of me. If I could only choose one of the three, it would probably be HH (although it's a close toss up between him and DOS).

[Thok]

Actually, on retrospect I'm getting more of a "Sefer is being really stupid" vibe then a "Sefer is scummy vibe", which lessen my desire to have him go before me.

[Thok]

@Sefer-in our discussion you've made the following mistakes

a. You suggested I should claim first, when it was blatantly obvious Fritz should go before me
b. You claimed I never gave my reasons for voting HH, when in fact I did
c. You criticized me for joining the Kison wagon without bothering to see why I did so

At best, those are sloppy play; at worst you're actually trying to get a bad case on me. So yes, I feel perfectly in my rights to insult you for being stupid; if you want to avoid being insulted, you can stop being stupid or sloppy or lazy and actually check your facts before doing things. (As for DSIV, look at the first paragraph of my reaction to Mackay's accusation of me; it's not exactly complementary to her. The reasons I didn't get more derogatory in that game was that it became likely to me relatively quickly that she was unlikely to be scum, and she realized relatively quickly that her arguments were stupid. The fact tht she actually had an argument to refute was also useful.)

(As for misremembering Ecto's cop claims; does it actually matter whether or not Ecto has two guilties or two innocents? It's certainly a much smaller mistake then any of the three things I posted above.)

I think you also haven't realized a big difference between here and DSIV;

I'm a replacement in this game

. In DSIV I got to see much of what was happening in real time; when I replaced in here Day 2, I felt the Kison wagon was wrong, but I'd need more info to figure out who was a good alternative. (In fact, you can see that I did poke at people like BM and IH, who I felt were pushing that wagon.)

(Also, there was comparably a lot more info to work with early in DSIV; we had three bandwagons and discussion of a ressurector/nightkills, while here we've had less info to work with.)

As for your comments early day 3 about Kison, they are filled with comments like "People raise good points about Kison's play, but maybe we should think about his role claim". It's not until after the crash that you actually start saying that the Kison wagon is bad; your behavior could reasonably be interpretted as an attempt to avoid being linked to a wagon you know to be bad.

Finally, I'm not being vague about Fritz's investigation; I've pointed out that there are many more scenarios where it clears me. Moreover, the argument that "claimed one shot investigation involving a weird role mechanic suggest I'm protown, independent of the Fritzler's alignment, and oh by the way there aare other reasons to think I'm protown" is a lot more complicated than "mafia killed me, I'm protown".

@Ectomancer-I have no problem with your order.

[Thok]

Now, since I've played around with Sefer too much, I'm going to try to do some analysis of Nightfall/HH/DOS, with some BM/Thesp thrown in

Let's start with some looking at Battle Mage's and Thesp's posts

First Battle Mage

1. Battle Mage's first post is to jump on the early Fritz wagon
2. Votes DOS for jumping off the Fritzler wagon; later he accuses the former DOS voters of trying to wagon him (when it was apparently a Glorkita mistake). BM puts a lot of effort into this theory.
3. BM goes heavily against livingod.
4. I noticed his list of suspicions; Nightfall/DOS are in the middle (along with Thesp), Shadowlurker/me are likely scum (notably everybody he claims are likely scum are either confirmed by death or have been investigated, while the masons and HH are high up on the list.)
5. BM later tries to pressure Sefer with a vote

Next Thesp

1. Consistently against Ectomancer
2. Interested in whether RR knows he was roleblocked. I'm not sure it's useful, but it seems worthwhile mentioning.
3. Post 1001 is one of the few times Thesp mentioned a bunch of people for suspicions; the two lists contains a mixture of known protown, cops, masons, investigated and DOS/HH. Feels a bit like potpourri.
4. Notable to me-Thesp went after Kison hard for attacking RR, but didn't really go after HH at all, when HH was antiRR day 1.

Nightfall-Defends BM on several occasions-see posts 203, 604, sort of in 965. Does vote BM on day 2, but doesn't really pushes it; always volunteers to move to other people to help secure a lynch.

(883 discussing BM's comment about fake claims is also interesting)

DOS-Early Fritzler vote, followed by an unvote (as previously mentioned). Pushes the livingod wagon and the idea that RR is partners with him. I don't really like DOS's reaction in 380 to RR's 377, which feels like obvious sarcasm. On Kison most of the time. FOS's Sefer for flavor discussion. FOS's Ecto for moving off Kison. Jumps on BM when the mad rush to lynch hm occurs (the only one onf HH/Nightfall/DOS to do so; HH and Nightfall were voting BM previously).

Overall this is a really sucky voting record. I'd like to hear what he thinks about Nightfall/HH/Fritzler/Twito/Me/Sefer.

HH-A quick look at Shamrock first has a bit of a connection with BM (post 166 looks like offering advice to a flailing scumbuddy). HH when he replaces immediately makes a point that suggests a BM-Thesp connection, but declares BM really a newbie. Compares day 1 BM wagon to livingod wagon in 419; declares livingod more likely to be scum.

Notable-spends end of day 1 pressuring RR hard, then mostly drops those thoughts to go after Kison for going after RR hard. Is antiKison early day 2, backs off when hears claim, jumps back on Kison wagon day 3. Says he likes Kison or DOS wagons, and chooses Kison (HH is a clever enough scum that this suggests a link to DOS; it gives the appearance of bussing without having to vote for your partner). HH has been defending Twito to some extent.

I guess this means I like Nightfall the best out of those three.

[Thok]

(Clarify by way of double post-I feel like Nightfall is most likely to be town of those three).

[Thok]

@Sefer

a. It's quite possible that Fritzler had more information about my role than just knowing my alignment (or equivalently that he would claim to have more information about my role). If he tried to guess my rolename, that would either given me a chance to catch him lying or given a stronger connection between us.

In addition, it is impossible for me to be scum and Fritz to be town unless Glork is being a bastard mod, which by itself is enough reason for Fritz to go before me.

b. The whole me not liking the Kison wagon/voting for HackerHuck/getting into a massive fight with Ectomancer was one of the more noticeable things in the thread; moreover, I mentioned all of these things (and in particular my reasons for voting HH and stuff that had happened in the thread during the crash, such as my reason to moving onto Kison) in a summary post that was easy for you to check. (Moreover, it was a summary post you directly responded too). HH also mentioned responding to my attack; Thesp also mentioned the new argument that was brought up.

c. Whatever on your reason for no longer voting Kison; I'll admit that my phrasing of my statement was poor (it was meant to convey the idea the timing of things, rather than your motive; it's clear that the timing went

1. Sefer (with lots of others) voting Kison day 2
2. Me yelling in general day 2 and some of day 3 about the Kison wagon being poor
3. The next day you no longer voting Kison.

Which is certainly a true chronology, even if you would have chosen to not vote for Kison for reasons other than 2; that is, events happened in that order timewise, even if 2. didn't cause 3. to happen. (The real point being that it's unclear whether voting Kison day 2 but not day 3 is better than voting Kison day 3 but not day 2; that's essentially the only major distinction in our voting record.) That said, your original vote for HH was clearly following me to some extent; you only added reason much later. The fact that you said"why don't we go with Thok's HH wagon" implies both some trust in me as well as your claimed interest in looking at HH.

If I've made mistakes, it been not clarifying what I've said and letting myself get overly angry with what I feel are poor response, as opposed for flat out saying clearly incorrect things. (And to be fair, I've gotten angry with several other people; notice my response to HH's claiming that I was fishing, or Twito's response to me asking him to name claim again. I'm not singling you out in particular.)

As for quoting Glork's rule-I am following it; I'm trying to do my best.[/snark] That's not going to stop me from saying game related info; I felt honestly given what's going on in the game that your behavior in our argument hasn't been impressive/had been stupid and moreover I explained why I felt that it wasn't impressive/stupid/whatever. You can validly complain about my use of the word "freaking" and you can probably complain a little about my tone, but I think it's legitemite for me to point out that your comments suggest that you haven't read important parts of the game.

[Thok]

I think for speed purposes, it's better to have everybody do a full role name/game name/flavor claim at once. There's an issue that if we spend too much time setting up a role claim, people will get bored/distracted from the game.

I'd also like to minimize the potential for any one person to stall things.

[Thok]

Ecto/others; do you want DOS to claim night choices now or later?

[Thok]

Do you find it likely we have three information roles in this game (plus whatever you think Fritz is)?

[Thok]

I don't know what I may find out by waiting for the night choices until after everyone has committed to role claims, but I would rather wait and have the opportunity, rather than seeing something go down where Im thinking, damn, we should have had them wait to divulge night choices and we could have found out X....

It's a question of whether you believe DOS is scum or not.

If you believe DOS is scum, we want to force him to spit out as much information as early as possible to make him slip up. If you believe DOS is town, then we should have him wait to catch others. Given that your order of claiming seemingly suggests you believe DOS is likely to be scum, unless you have good reason to believe his claim, you should make him choose night actions early. So I'll repeat this again, do you think we have three information gathering roles plus whatever you think about Fritzler in an 18 person game?

[Thok]

If you want you could allow DOS to partially claim night choices. For example, you could let him claim some of his night choices/indicate if he has info one one of the people yet to claim (me, Nightfall, and Sefer) without revealling who he has info on or what night it is. That at least locks him into saying something useful, while not completely letting us last three claimers off the hook. (Obviously, if he has info that can contradict an already given role claim, he should mention it, and possibly should have already mentioned it.)

If/when DOS gets here, I'd like to say why he didn't ask about/discuss whether or not to mention his night choices; after a little thought, I find it peculiar that he didn't discuss this at all.

[Thok]

This is a strange question.

DOS, Do you play many board games?

Not really; Railroad Tycoon is IMHO an obscure game (compared to the others mentioned so far in the thread) and I can see why Nightfall would ask. It's worth mentioning that Thesp (known scum) gushed a lot about how good this game is in Kelly Chen's request a board game thread.

I find it a little surprising that an alternating role would not start on day/night one. Was there a reason you chose not to divulge your alternating ability with the initial claim and is there any flavor behind the alternating days?

That would rank around third on my issues with DOS's claimed night choices (the not revealing his alternatingness). My top two concerns would be

1. Why would you track Jayln? This is night 2, so by then you know that she was likely to be roleblocked or killed if she was town, and she was already likely to be protown from the whole getting BMscum lynched thing.

2. I doubt Glork would reveal that to a tracker that his target was roleblocked.

[Thok]

IH, do you think DOS is likely to be protown?

[Thok]

@DOS-how were you planning on distinguishing between a roleblocked cop and a mafia member who didn't perform the kill?

Wikipedia had a link to the manual for Railroad Tycoon; it doesn't seem to have a mechanic for trains needing a while to get going (although I could be misreading the manual).

[Thok]

I'm Xiangqi (Chinese chess), vanilla townie. I have some flavor about being mad about the death of a sibling game.

(Yes, I realize that my claim looks a bit out of place, as the only old abstract strategy game we've seen other than chess. That's part of the reason I wanted to go a bit later, as my claim opened up the potential claimspace a bit.)

(I'll also note that I sort of hinted at this by my reaction to Fritz claiming he was now vanilla townie; I had considered the idea that he had copied my role as well as my alignment.)

[Thok]

Is that the same as Chinese Checkers?

Maybe Asian games are a second scum group...

No, chinese checkers if I recall is a much younger game, and completely different in play style (and not actually from China).

(In terms of Asian games, I'm a bit of an unusual role claim; there are at least two games I'd feel are strictly more likely to be in the game.)

[Thok]

Yeah, but Ecto got an innocent on Twito and there's good reason to believe that Twito isn't a godfather (or at least isn't one associated with the roleblocker). If we need proof that Ecto isn't insane, it's better to lynch me; that way we don't lose a power role in the process.

If Twito's scum, then he's the scum roleblocker. The benefit of keeping a hypotown Twito around (especially since I don't trust Twito's ability to judge who is a good roleblock) is much, much, much less then the benefit of killing a hyposcum Twito off. That said, I prefer lynching certain scum DOS.

One more comment that I think is relevant about DOS's defense of his claim is his comment that he had never mass-claimed before, hence didn't know what to suspect. That strikes me as a bad argument (and similar to one I've seen medium experienced players use before about not knowing relatively common game mechanics), that ignores a few factors:

a. DOS ought to be able to think about what should go into a mass-claim on his own.
b. I can only check whether or not DOS is lying with respect to games on this site (this is a minor issue, but it's worth noting that he could be lying).
c. Even if you haven't massclaimed before, you could have claimed before; certainly if you've done that, then mass-claiming isn't much different.
d. Even if you haven't claimed/massclaimed before, DOS is experienced enough to have read other games, and you could see how a mass-claim works in one of those.

@Sefer-you mentioned that there were a few games you were expecting to see as townies. Now that the mass-claim has happened, are you willing to reveal what games you were expecting?

[Thok]

OK, that's the sort of thing I thought you were thinking (although I feel like you missed a few other games that would potentially fit in with that group; Sorry! or Mouse Trap, for example.)

[Thok]

@DOS-I feel like you've somewhat missed my point. I don't expect you to have read games specifically looking for mass claim issues. I expect you to have read other games on the side (out of interest in particular players or out of general love of mafia) and incidentally noticed issues like mass claims, fake claims, etc. Heck, I'll add that you've seen other people claim in this game.

I should put my vote where my mouth is and

vote DOS

@IH-If you are town, please stop pinging my scumdar. Why are you distracting from the DOS wagon?

Twito is either Godfather or town and the role he claimed, but not any other scum role. We need to look elsewhere for the scum roleblocker. Also, is Twito in his boost, or block phase tonight?

You could be insane. You could be naive. You could be insane. You could be naive.

I'll even throw in a you could be scum for good measure. And for really good measure I'll throw in the possibility of a scum godfather roleblocker (although the last is unlikely and requires Twito to act weirdly).

Also, why are you assuming Twito's role alternates? Why are you assuming that Twito's claimed boost mechanic acts like you think it does, especially since we have at least one known siutation when it doesn't?

Side note: Town feels like it has too many power roles, especially given what I know about Glork; I feel that's a decent argument in favor of claimed townies being town.

[Thok]

THok do you think this is the wrong time to have such conversations? If I don't survive the night, then I at least want to have my thoughts out. Duh, this isn't really role related, so I'm going to talk about it.

I'm wondering why you need to feel the need to have such discussions at all?

If you think Ecto is scummy for how he's played, then say so. But "Ecto's a claimed cop who's lived through the night, and that confuses me even though there's a known explanation for it" isn't a big help.

I could see the possibility of Ecto and Twito being scum together, and both lying about their role powers (that would be a situation in which scum were Twito,Ecto, Thesp, BM and probably one more [which at this point is likely DOS]). But Ecto still being alive isn't really good evidence for that theory.

[Thok]

I still feel DoS is the best lynch. I'd still like to hear why some people think Twito (now CTD) might be the scum roleblocker, since no one really answered post 1474.

If either you or Ecto is scum with Twito, then your argument for why Twito can't be scum falls through.

If you are scum with Twito, then there's no risk for him claiming to block you. If Twito's scum with Ecto, then Ecto is lying about being a cop and thus didn't have to be blocked last night; the only risk Twito took was claiming to block you at night 1. [This wasn't that much of a risk; Twito claimed day 2 after the masons (April 6th), Ecto (april 6th), and Fritzler's comment about me (April 4th), which basically left you being either an SK/rival mafia, a vig, or a townie, or there being a lot of power roles in the game]. In either case, the cop investigation doesn't give more evidence [if you are scum with Twito, Ecto's insane, if Ecto is scum with Twito then Ecto is lying].)

There's even a crazy situation where Ecto is a scum cop of some sort (probably scum role name cop).

Basically my issue with Twito/CTD is that his role claim is bizarre, and we have a lot of power roles for a game this size, IMHO. (And yes, I'm probably being hypocritcal, since I'm not going after Fritzler for having a bizarre role claim.)

[Thok]

@CTD-you only mentioned your suspicions of Fritzler with respect to his claimed connection to me. What do you think of the possibility of Fritzler trying a gambit on his own (i.e. the possibility that I'm town and Fritz is scum)?

[Thok]

Also DOS should be back from his gaming convention soon. Even if he is likely scum (heck especially if he is scum) we should try to get thoughts out of him about what he thinks of the game.

[Thok]

Sorry, Thok, How did you first find out Fritz's "game" name again?
Was it in your pm? or did Fritz tell it to you?

What? I learned about Fritz's game name the same way you did, by seeing him post it in the thread.

[Thok]

That really must be frustrating and I apologize.
But I didn't feel like what Glork did was fair to me but I do understand that doesn't give me the right to do this to CTD however I've also put a lot of time to this game. Probably much more than he has.

Twito, please stop posting in this game, please stop acting like a 9 year old brat, and please stop claiming you are the victim here.

[Thok]

As a side note, can we get a prod on DOS?

[Thok]

I don't need a prod. I am in the process of re-reading to give you guys an actuaslly good and coherent post about what I think in this game.

Has much actually changed in this game since you went on vacation?

[Thok]

unvote

only to move away from lynch -1.

[Thok]

I think this only increases the percentage on DOS being scum.

In that it increases the likelihood of you being a cop, I'd be willing to agree with that. (On the flip side, the presence of a somewhat bizarre role suggests the presence of other bizarre roles. I'd argue it's about neutral.) I still want to hear DOS make some sort comment, although I'm tempted to do a 48 hour rule type thing.

[Thok]

I'd hate to use information that we shouldn't have, but is it just me or did Twito lie about his claim? I thought he said he switched between Block and Boost.

How is that inconsistent with his posted claim? Twito never claimed that his role alternated or anything.

[Thok]

I don't need a prod. I am in the process of re-reading to give you guys an actuaslly good and coherent post about what I think in this game.

Still waiting on this.

[Thok]

Feh.

vote DOS

with the deadline reasonably soon.

[Thok]

Also, can we get prods on Fritzler and HackerHuck (possibly on Nightfall also).

[Thok]

Do you guys actually think that DoS will come through with anything worthwhile or are we better off just dropping the hammer early to avoid a potential no-lynch at deadline?

If you are willing to drop the hammer, I suggest picking an official time tomorrow when you will do it that leaves some amount of time for DOS to make a post (say by 6:00 PM tomorrow in your time zone). I don't expect any of us to unvote him; I just want to force some info out of himso we have stuff recorded.

[Thok]

Curiously, all six of the lving people have at least some compelling reason to be seen as town. The Mason's have the whole Masonry thing, Sefer has an investigation by a cop who's either sane or naive, I have Fritzler, Fritzler has a claimed weird role, and Nightfall has the vig thing.

Therefore one of those things is wrong. We need to decide which of the group of the following is most likely:

1. Fritzler is lying about stuff (with me possibly being scum with him-I know this isn't the case, but obviously you don't).
2. Ecto is naive and Sefer is scum (which requires Sefer to have done some bussing with HH).
3. Nightfall is an SK (given who we know is paired together/who he's vigged he's unlikely to be mafia)
4. We have scum masonry issues.
5. Something bizarre that we haven't considered.

I've put these in roughly the order of likelihood I feel they're happening.

[Thok]

Doing some rereading I think Fritzler is the play today, unless somebody really wants to go after one of the masons.

(Looking over his posts, I can't see Sefer as scum [see the interaction with BM and the vote on HH]; in addition we've only seen 2 townies so far; for balance reasons I think we need both of our remaining claimed townies to be townies. Don't want to lynch Nightfall, don't want to lynch one of the masons.)

[Thok]

I'm sort of the belief that Nightfall should kill whoever he wants, with the obvious exception that if Fritz is town then he shouldn't kill me. I sort of want the info of seeing who he wanted to kill.

Trying to decide if the fact that the mafia killed Ecto instead of Nightfall means something (specifically if that definately implies that we have another goon around).

Does anybody have any thoughts about my game balance comments?

Does anybody want to hear anything from Fritzler? I also think we should get IH to post something to day, just to have his thoughts on record.

Zindy, did you and IH talk at all last night?

[Thok]

The vanilla thing...outguessing the mod and clearing two people using those guesses is simply overdone. I follow your argument for a long way, but I'd prefer to clear people on basis of behaviour.

Fair enough, but I'd argue that both Sefer and I have fairly strong behaviorial reasons to be seen as protown also.

[Thok]

Sorry for the absence I'm back and such.

I'd be more inclined to believe Nightfall is the play, but that's just me. I'd also say that either today or tomorrow we should nolynch, but if there is a vig and an SK, and they both kill, then we're screwed if we wait til tomorrow. It all depends on who is left and such.

Why do you think there's both a vig and an SK? Where the heck would all of the missing kills be if we had three killing groups?

Massive FOS IH for that.

[Thok]

In that we've all claimed, how are theories going to help scum more than town at this point?
My own opinion on balance is that 4 townies in a game this size is more likely than 3, but I wouldn't want to assume it's the case. I'll trust Thok if Fritzler turns up town, but he is, indeed, a tricky bastard.

Fair enough on me being a tricky bastard. (There's also SL-Battle Mage interaction which suggests I'm protown from before I joined, and SL is less of a tricky bastard than I am.)

This may all be irrelevant if we lynch Fritzler and he turns out to be the last scum, which I think is a decent possibility.

[Thok]

Does somebody want to try to work out if 2 scum groups of 3 people each is feasible at all? (in this scenario, nightkills force one group to be Nightfall and friends, while the other is Thesp/HH and friends; not sure where DOS/BM would go.) It's worth considering as this is one of the few scenarios I can see in which scum could win today with a mislynch.

(There's also cult issues, but I can't see that being a realistic possibility from my point of view.)

[Thok]

Once again, if an SK is no killing to hide himself, why would he kill on a later night.

There are two masons, and a cop investigated innocent left (as well as the me-Fritz thing). An SK trying to hide would have to be insanely patient; he might die by accident at this point in the game. Remember an SK also has had a claimed cop (RR/Jayln) to shoot at since day 1. I don't see anybody still living in this game being that patient as an SK.

If there is no more mafia, and the SK would know this somehow (which is possible) it could most definitely try to defeat the notion there is one.

I'm just saying, it's possible, and not unlikely, since we know nothing about the setup, since pretty much anything is possible in a LARGE THEME.

Paraphrase-"Large theme! Scary! Boo! Not a large theme! Anything could happen in a large theme! I won't try to analyze the likeliness of a player actually trying to do my crazy bizarre theories, I'll just scare everybody by saying large theme!"

Here's a serious suggestion I have for you-go through and tak a quick glance at your suspicions from throughout the game. To put it mildly, after a little bit through day 1, they routinely suck. Now that could be a protown tell (scum probably wouldn't be so horrible), but it does mean we don't have to trust your judgement with respect to this game.

This is pretty much redundant though, and just kinda arguing about something pointless, because I'm not sure about the plan to lynch Fritz.... I just don't think that Fritz would be part of that mafia group, and would find it more likely to be made by an SK, especially if he has other powers that he can only use if he doesn't kill.

Do you believe Fritzler to be protown? Go and actually look at his posts as compared to the rest of the living people in the game. Why don't you think he's mafia?

Do you find it likely that any other players are likely to be part of any remaining scum/SK? There's a decent chance that a Fritzler lynch will end the game. There's little to no chance a Fritzler lynch will lose the game, and we do have another lynch tomorrow.

In other words, the first two nights, he did something else, and would come up neutral, then, until the cops were gone, he used the innocent power to throw off cops, and when they were gone, did something else.

Of course I am probably completely wrong, but it just seems like something viable, especially for Yahtzee.

Fritzler is definately not Yahtzee (that's was Livingod's role). He's claimed Diplomacy.

[Thok]

vote Fritzler

[Thok]

Hmm. That was quick.

unvote

(I'll probably put it back on, but better safe then sorry.)

[Thok]

.......

Something seems off about that nightfall unvote and then revote.

Please respond to my post 1584, OK?

[Thok]

Mod, can we get a prod on IH and Zindaras?

[Thok]

I'm OK with that plan. I'll add that if Fritz comes up specifically as Mafia Roleblocker (as opposed to Mafia ??? or something weird), then we probably have two mafia groups, and in that case Sefer should probably be vigged.

I find the odds of the above paragraph happening small. I still think the most likely scenario is that lynching Fritzler ends the game.

[Thok]

Fair enough. I probably have more info than you (as I know my alignment, which at this point is significantly more info than knowing your alignment).

[Thok]

Fair enough.

I've taken a second to look at the posts of the early nonNightfall nightkills (Cheesefan/Logicticus) to see if we can learn anything. (I figure that those kills are ones where the mafia had the freedom to choose their target, although they could have been doc hunting or something). There's surprisingly little there from either of them. Cheesefan was on the early random 3 person Fritz wagon-that's about the only thing of importance I note from either of them.

[Thok]

I'm planning on voting Fritzler in 24 hours. I'd like to hear comments from anybody at that time.

[Thok]

I'm really waiting for IH to respond to my comments. I doubt Fritzler will say anything useful for the rest of the game. Sefer or Nightfall might say something interesting.

Glork

, as it has been four days since anybody other than me or Zindy has posted, can we get a mass prod?

[Thok]

There are two masons, and a cop investigated innocent left (as well as the me-Fritz thing). An SK trying to hide would have to be insanely patient; he might die by accident at this point in the game. Remember an SK also has had a claimed cop (RR/Jayln) to shoot at since day 1. I don't see anybody still living in this game being that patient as an SK.

You would be. Fritzler, if he was trying this, would be.

You're seriously claiming Fritzler, of all people, would delibarately choice to avoid using a nightkill for four nights? Please excuse me, I have to go clean up the mess I made laughing at this*

*This is rhetorical flair. I may not have actually made a mess. The above paragraph actually feels irrelevant to me also.

IH, would you find it reasonable the idea that ThespScum suggested a role idea to FritzlerScum, and then FritzlerScum chose to follow that role idea? (I suggest Thesp because I feel he's more likely to make this idea up than DOS/Hacker Huck/Battle Mage, especially given the whole DOS claiming Railroad Tycoon thing.)

[Thok]

Glork

, has Fritz picked up his prod?

vote Fritzler

[Thok]

You guys don't know how close I was to just laying down the hammer. but I've thought it over, and I want everyone to have a chance to respond to Fritzler's post.

I don't really see that there's anything in Fritz's post to respond to.

[Thok]

So, I'm now confirmed. I'm trying to decide between a Nightfall lynch or a no lynch. No other play makes sense to me.

[Thok]

I'd like to hear Nightfall actually say something before I make a decision.

[Thok]

Nightfall, who's the play?

[Thok]

P.S. If Zind was a scummy mason could he likely kill at night? or would he likely be more of a goon?

Why do you want to know the answer to this question?

Sefer or Zindaras? Why?

[Thok]

If he was a goon it would explain the lack of another nightkill.

I can think of at least three separate reasons why there was only one nightkill last night. 2 of them involve you being an SK (and the third one doesn't rule out the possibility of you being an SK).

[Thok]

I dont mean to say that it is the only possibility.
Looking at the game from the angle that I am though, with me being town, it is more likely to me that Zind or someone else is a goon (?) than me being a SK.

Zindaras or Sefer? Explain your choice.

[Thok]

Also, I believe that the one scenario I can imagine with you being protown and there being only one kill is much simpler and something a person is more likely to speculate on then "the remaining mafia has a crazy role the doesn't let them kill".

Moreover, in the situation you are suggesting (that the remaining mafia can't kill), we can afford to lynch you today, as there won't be a kill.

[Thok]

A crazy role that doesn't let them kill? I was just asking if goons were able to kill at night...

I think I might need to brush up on my roles a little but aren't goons just guys that try to lynch people for their mafia team mates? I thought they normally couldnt kill.

Um, yeah. I know you're more experienced then this.

[Thok]

Zindaras or Sefer? Explain your choice.

[Thok]

I'm still pondering this. I want to make sure that we get the Zindaras-Sefer choice correct if we have to make it. (And it's unclear we have to make it, but it's important.)

Sefer-assuming for the moment that Nightfall is town, why is Zindaras scum and not you?

Zindaras-assuming for the moment that Nightfall is town, why is Sefer scum and not you?

Don't mention things like Ecto's cop invetigation or Zindie being a mason; both of those cancel out.

[Thok]

*cricket*

I'd

really

like to hear Nightfall and Thok on this.

Unless Glork sets a deadline (and if he does, he'll get a fist shaking from me), I figure I have plenty of time to figure things out, and it's clear to me that I'm at least somewhat in control right now.

Some things that are bugging me

1. Why did HH kill Ectomancer?

2. Why is Nightfall suggesting a crazy "I thought goons didn't kill" idea, when the obvious suggestion would be to suggest a "scum chose not to kill" idea? (I consider this a variation on my "players not knowing something that they obviously should know" tell I mentioned with respect to DOS.)

[Thok]

Nightfall, who did you target Night 1?

[Thok]

-Limited time over next 2 days-

Thok - I intended to target Thesp. I typed up my pm and could have sworn I sent it in to Glork, but when day came and there was no kill, I double checked my pm outbox and asked Glork about it, and it seemed that my pm got lost somehow.

Why Thesp night 1?

Why didn't you mention this when you claimed?

[Thok]

- For my first two vig attempts (Thesp no kill , and CES) I was making my choices more based on the feel players were giving me. I felt cautious about the two of them. After viging CES and being wrong I took a closser look at Thesp to see if there was anything stronly town, but that's when I came up with the Thesp/DOS/HH scum trio thought.

As far as I can tell, you didn't mention any suspicions of Thesp anywhere in the thread day 1 (in contrast to your fairly strong antiCES suspicions). Literally, the first time your posts mention Thesp in the game are when you claim. Why didn't you mention these suspicions?

Why ThespVig and not CESvig night 1? (For that reason why not a BM vig or a Kison vig night 1; both were plausible given the events of day 1)? Why CESvig and not Thespvig night 2? Why no attempt to get Thesp lynched day 1 or day 2 or day 3?

- I wasn't bloked, and no one was protected since my night action was never "really" taken. In reality it is as if I stayed home the first night. I didnt mention it during my claim, because my actions that night had no influence on the game. When morning came though, I did double check with our mod to see if he recieved my pm or not. I did make sure that the no nightkill was a result of my error and not the actions of another player.

You still could have mentioned this story. There was no good reason not to explain the no-kill Night 1 when you claimed, and not mentioning this could easily lead to confusion. (Given your earlier comments, I thought it possible that you had chosen to delibarately no-kill night 1.)

[Thok]

Pondering the idea of Sefer as a Traitor for the moment.

(This actually appeals to me flavorwise for Checkers.)

[Thok]

I'm more thinking of the Traitor as a role who gets recruited if targetted by Mafia (or who needs to find mafia to target them). Such a character usually investigates as protown until recruited.

My flavor reason for this (which is actually fairly bad) is thinking of checkers promoting to kings. This is fairly weak to me.

I'm not convinced supporting DOS over Twito is really that strong of an argument. Given how day went, it was likely was going to be lynched once he claimed.

On looking over stuff, HH's 1442 feels vaguely relevant to this (as an attempt to try to see if I was a traitor).

[Thok]

Soldiers in Xiangqi get more movement options for reaching a point on the board, same as pieces in Checkers, so any flavor relation you between pieces changing their capabilities and the game being a traitor applies pretty equally.

The difference between a King and a normal Checker is significantly greater then the advantage a soldier gains in Xianqi. Moreover, the promotion mechanic in checkers is a much more prominent part of the game.

Moreover, this flavor discussion is irrelevant to my role. If I was a traitor, I would have had a scum winning condition the entire game; only how cops investigate me would change. Since Fritz was gaining my win condition (and not merely investigating me), I am not a traitor.

[Thok]

EBWOP: I know the scenario of an SK with buffs that give us an auto-lose in case we no lynch isn't very likely. I just wanted it to be said so we at least have something new to talk about. The game is going at the pace of an asthmatic slug.

Just...glrk. Let's get to the part where we talk and decide on stuff.

I don't believe talking about SK buffs are good for town; it's certainly not if we have both an SK and a mafia left. (On the flip side, in that scenario I think we're screwed anyway.)

[Thok]

Nightfall, ignoring Ecto's investigation and the role claims, what do you think of Zindaras's and Sefer's play.

How/why did you decide on your list of people to be vigged.

Why were you worried about being known to be the one who killed CES?

[Thok]

OK, why did you put HH/DOS/Thesp on your list of three scum in the first place?

[Thok]

I'm going to need a lot of convincing to believe that Glork put in a scum mason, especially since I don't see any mechanics for town that would help us deal with that issue. Ususally scum masons come with either a protown role that will catch the scum mason, or some sort of flavor reason to suggest a mason is actually scum, and I see neither here. (Basically, I feel like a scum mason is bastard modding in this set up, and I don't believe that Glork is a bastard.)

I noticed on rereading BM started attacking Sefer immediately on his replacing in. I consider that a protown sign for Sefer.

I'm currently leaning towards a Nightfall lynch, followed by a no-lynch+Sefer vig.

[Thok]

I think right now I would prefer you to vig Sefer, mainly because I believe weirdness involving the a masonry is much less likely than weirdness involving a cop investigations.

[Thok]

OK, Nightfall. I'm fairly convinced you are an SK. No vote yet, but you're on a short leash.

[Thok]

Basically I'm looking at three scenarios from most likely to least likely

1. Nightfall SK, Zindaras mason
<gap>
2. Nightfall SK with some nightkill protection, Zindy scum mason
<massive gap>
3. Nightfall vig, Zindy scum who can't kill.

Both 2 and 3 strike me as unlikely given interactions with people. Zindy's interactions with BM day 1 don't look like him interacting with a scum partner, Thesp's lists of scum with respect to Kison suggest Zindy town (as he already listed two of his partners on those lists), and Zindy's early comments about DOS's avatar suggest that Zindy and DOS didn't talk during the pregame.

[Thok]

Bump. Hello? Anybody?

[Thok]

Waves hi. Also,

prod Nightfall.

[Thok]

Leaning towards voting Nightfall, and I'm tempted to do it within 48 hours or so.

Nightfall, why did you choose to kill Sefer over Zindy? If the answer is "Thok told me to do so", why did you choose to follow my suggestion rather than go with your own intuition? Also, why should I believe that Zindy is teammates with BM, HH, DOS, and Thesp?

Zindy, why should I believe that you aren't teammates with BM, HH, DOS, and Thesp?

[Thok]

You also seemed to think it wouldn't be Zind, so to show you I'm willing to go along with you (the confirmed innocent) I went with the choice you made.

Why did you think that showing you would go along with me was important? If (hypothetically) you are a vig, making the correct choice last night would have ended the game and made any decision I had to make irrelevant.

[Thok]

Honestly if I had viged Zind would you not be asking me why I didnt kill Sef like you had suggested?

Probably; it's a worthwhile question for me to ask anyways. But I get the feeling from your most recent kills that you are more interested in convincing town that you are protown than in winning the game.

[Thok]

Feh. I can't see being Zindie either scum or a scum mason. So

vote Nightfall

. Hopefully I've chosen correctly.

[Thok]

So, are you town, Zindy? (Glork seems to have disappeared for the weekend).

[Thok]

Fair enough. Assuming you're telling the truth (it's clear that I'm town), then town mainly won because SKNightfall started pwning the scum.

[Thok]

For what it's worth, I probably would have gone back after HH once Ecto turned up dead, simply because everybody else was confirmed not mafia. You really needed to kill a mason (or possibly me) to cut down on the number of confirmed.

Nightfall was basically dead after the game reached 6 alive, 4 of them mostly confirmed. The only reason he lasted so long was because town (and by town, I probably should mean me) decided to take a bunch of safety plays.