Mafia with the Quickness 2 GAME OVER!


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Post Post #10 (isolation #0) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 3:32 am

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VOTE: Slandaar
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Post Post #14 (isolation #1) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 3:34 am

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vote
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Post Post #18 (isolation #2) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 3:38 am

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In post 16, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:who should i vote hoopla
slandaar
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Post Post #21 (isolation #3) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 3:41 am

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In post 20, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:do you want me to proxy my vote to you also???? :(
that would be nice actually
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Post Post #34 (isolation #4) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 4:38 am

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Hmmm
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Post Post #37 (isolation #5) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 4:55 am

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My opinion sides with belief atm...
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Post Post #39 (isolation #6) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 5:09 am

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I believe the miller claim...
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Post Post #113 (isolation #7) » Thu Jun 12, 2014 9:46 am

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is dis a new wagon?? ok

VOTE: SAD
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Post Post #436 (isolation #8) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:00 am

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In post 194, Oversoul wrote:Hoopla, what do you make of Desp's encryptor claim and subsequent action.
I dunno. Feels like some weird setup shenanigans going on, so I'm inclined to leave the claims be, and work them out later.

I feel overwhelmed by this game already. Who is town? I'm basically willing to sheep someone and vote with them until I have any real opinions of my own. Someone speak up.
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Post Post #438 (isolation #9) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:10 am

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Juls' claim was premature and weird in a way that scum don't usually make. I strongly believe her claim. I also believe Marquis' claim too, but if either of them are scum, it'd be him.
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Post Post #440 (isolation #10) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:14 am

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Gut scum read on Slice of Life. So I'll start there.

VOTE: Slice of Life
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Post Post #441 (isolation #11) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 12:14 am

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In post 439, SleepyKrew wrote:When you say you believe Juls's claim, you believe she's a neighborizer or specifically a town neighborizer?
Town neighbouriser.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #12) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:09 am

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In post 522, Desperado wrote:why is slice scum and why don't scum claim prematurely/awkwardly? especially if they feel threatened and powerless (which juls has claimed in this topic)?
I'm currently halfway through researching day role 1 claims in mini normals to see what roles get trueclaimed and fakeclaimed, and one aspect of this has been premature claims (my definition of premature is a claim before L-2, at least 48 hours or more before deadline, and not a role where there is merit in claiming straightup, ie; miller). So far, my results have been 4 premature scum roleclaims and 24 town premature roleclaims, which puts it at 86% town. From the games I've read, the general tone tends to match that of nervous town not realising the wagon on her isn't as serious as she perceives it to be.
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Post Post #617 (isolation #13) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:11 am

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Going to sheep Juls onto Helium

Looks like a good wagon.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Helium
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Post Post #622 (isolation #14) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:16 am

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In post 619, Desperado wrote:so....why is slice of life scum and why are you sheeping juls now instead of voting your own scumread?
I didn't like their opening post.

Gonna be honest, haven't had enough time to properly read everything that has happened, so I'm basically operating on tone-based gut reads. Juls is my only real town read, so I'm teaming up with her while I get more invested.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #15) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:17 am

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Desperado. How do you feel about my opinion on Juls? Is it convincing?
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Post Post #625 (isolation #16) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:18 am

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In post 624, helium-3 wrote:there's that "gonna be honest" again....
that's a really good tell.
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Post Post #636 (isolation #17) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:25 am

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In post 627, Desperado wrote:not really. i'd be more convinced if you had information on what juls does with claims as town and scum. do you think you've assembled a representative sample that should be convincing?
it feels like a pretty obvious pattern from what i've seen. it is a general pattern across the site, not for juls specifically, but i barely know anybody i am playing with, so essentially i will mostly be using generalised tells.

you and helium and whoever else don't know how i play either, so you'll have to be resorting to generalised tells too based on the other patterns you've seen. this shouldn't really discredit my belief about juls, because if it does, it essentially discredits anything else that isn't player specific.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #18) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:26 am

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In post 633, Juls wrote:Hoopla, I'm likely not neighborizing you if that's what you are trying to do
i'm not. i'm just trying to work my way into the game. it's too big atm, so i'm sorta just clinging to what i believe the most and am gonna work my way from there.
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Post Post #640 (isolation #19) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:55 am

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Oversoul is town for trying to defend himself with self-meta - he knows better not to do that as scum, and I think him trying to sleaze Juls into neighbourizing him for :town reasons: is unnecessarily overt, that I feel like he must have a reason for it. That's such an arbitrary and unnecessary play for scum, ergo it's probably town with some sort of purpose.

I believe Perpetual Nonsense's miller claim also. There is obviously some weirdness and creativity going on in this setup, and miller is a stereotypically sneaky mod role (bonus if there is no Cop too), and it's not like PN was claiming this once it was known the setup appears kinda goofy - he was first to claim, which points to truthfulness, as opposed to scum fakeclaiming and getting lucky that the role appears to fit setup-speculation-wise.

Desperado's claim happened straight after PN's. I don't doubt that this is his role. It looks like a fairly lucid, snap decision on Desp's part, most because it appears like he's claiming in reaction to the miller claim. In general, quicker decisions like that tend to be more town, as scum will generally take more time to calculate. Desp seems like the sort of player audacious enough to claim Encryptor as scum though, but that might just be unnecessarily paranoid. I lean townish on it.
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Post Post #641 (isolation #20) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 9:08 am

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In post 353, Oversoul wrote:Using the neighbor chat as their own hydra qt is pretty town.
I agree with this post also. Feu is highly likely to be town too. I believe both the Neighbourizers are town.
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Post Post #800 (isolation #21) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:39 pm

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In post 744, Imperium wrote:Hoopla - Why are all your reads so far based mostly on claims? It's 30 pages in, you don't have any reads based on play?
i find those reads tend to be the most reliable for me early in the game. it's the one thing i'm pretty good at.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #22) » Fri Jun 13, 2014 7:45 pm

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why are you riling up my lil oversoul, mollie??
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #23) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:36 am

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oooh, i go drinking for one day and i'm behind 15 pages again.
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Post Post #1163 (isolation #24) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:38 am

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so, we have less than two days before deadline. has anyone started compromising/yelling about lack of time yet? consider me sheeping them instead now.

reading...
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Post Post #1172 (isolation #25) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:56 am

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In post 1168, helium-3 wrote:oh hey hoopla

thanks for reminding us all that you're still scum
explain?
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Post Post #1181 (isolation #26) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:26 am

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In post 1174, helium-3 wrote:you plan on sheeping people who are screaming about being short on time?

those are the scumbags.

also, you explain. explain.... anything.
Well, I am currently 15 pages adrift and have at multiple times including now, feel like I have overextended myself and can't keep up with some of the players in the game. For me, I sympathise with Juls' ire with the hydras, although my complaint is more along the lines of having 26 players crammed into 19 slots, which is just adding volume to the game, and not the good kind of volume, because like Juls' talks about, it is schizophrenic and hard to approach. I'm not saying it's anyone's fault for all this, though. I knew there were hydras playing in the game and I knew it'd be a challenging game for me, as I am used to smaller games where it's possible to get a read on everyone and work the game out via PoE - that is my modus operandi. I lack confidence in developing behavioural reads (especially on players I barely know) to the point where I feel dishonest when I express reads based on a gut reaction to their behaviour because I know how easy it is to be wrong about someone when you view them in isolation. I am used to seeing gamestates as a whole, and solving it that way - it's the only way I've really ever been a successful player as town, and obviously, I cannot do it in a game this large.

I am trying to start though, and have several solid town reads. Someone was lamenting my reads were mostly based on the claims, and I'm aware of that - those are one aspect of the game where I am good at reading the situation and setup and seeing if it makes sense. The reason I am so willing to sheep someone I trust is because I actually feel like this will forward the game. For an advertised "quick" game, it actually hasn't been very quick. Few people have made efforts to progress the game forward - few people are compromising and trying to build new wagons, and we haven't even got anyone close to being lynched. The majority of people aren't trying to further the game - they are using the theme as a license to spam without remorse. It is fine for people who keep up with it, because they are improving their reads by participating in the process, but there are always going to be people left behind and this will essentially be the lynch pool. In a game this size, I am extremely skeptical about town's ability to make meaningful choices early in the game, to the point where utility lynching is probably optimal to make future days more efficient.

I don't really know what the point of this post is, because I know you'll construe it as whining since it doesn't comply with your mantra about how you play the game, but I feel like at least talking and trying to interact with people more will help bring me back into the game, or at least help you guys read me more. This is where I'm at mentally. Perfectly willing to sheep and compromise with anyone trustworthy, because it looks like the game is going around in circles... giant, giant circles. We need more sheep, because not everyone can be a leader.
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Post Post #1186 (isolation #27) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 8:55 am

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In post 1183, helium-3 wrote:haha
you're pretty quick on the uptake

rough reads (even an incomplete or short list) would be a good place to start
you should know by now we have very opposite approaches to the game.

TOWNIES/WOULD CONSIDER SHEEPING WITH:

Juls
Oversoul
Perpetual Nonsense
Feu Et Vol
Sugoku Sugoi
Desp

TOWNIE BUT WON'T FOLLOW

Speedy Saki (obnoxious trolling that scum don't do as often as bored town)

MEH

Slice of Life
Imperium
SleepyKrew

DUNNO

Not_Mafia
Helium
SaintKerrigan
Ser Arthur Dayne
JasonT
Slandaar
Shos

basically willing to follow my town reads onto the dunno pile, and would consider my meh pile afterwards. as such...

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SaintKerrigan
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #28) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:32 am

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In post 1195, helium-3 wrote:so who are those townreads and why are you not sheeping them yet (or are you?)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p5951504
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Post Post #1199 (isolation #29) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:47 am

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In post 1197, helium-3 wrote:so far you are saying that you poe things out which is what do so I am not seeing the opposition.
then you ought to understand where i coming from then.
In post 1197, helium-3 wrote:lol, why are we in your dunno pile
because i don't have a town read on you.
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Post Post #1201 (isolation #30) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:49 am

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you give me too much credit, oversoul. i am good in games where the conditions suit me.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #31) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 9:58 am

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In post 1203, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:We agree that shos is scum and would like him killed!
In post 1201, Hoopla wrote:you give me too much credit, oversoul. i am good in games where the conditions suit me.
"you overestimate me" is underwhelming self-meta defense :neutral:
i'm not opposed to self-meta defenses, so i'll give you a more crystal one. hoopla is rarely apathetic as scum, but it strikes fairly regularly as town.
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #32) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:02 am

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In post 1207, helium-3 wrote:the difference between us poeing things out is that we are totally getting our hands dirty and formulating reads and readjusting as more info is garnered.

you have not done or are doing any of this. instead you are looking for easy wagons to sheep.
hence we are different players. i'm perfectly willing to sheep when the game needs people sheeping. you can criticise me for me, but i'm probably not going to change until the game is smaller/there is more meaningful information in the game, like flips and role claims.
In post 1207, helium-3 wrote:why not?
you probably spam and play this way as scum, so i don't think you "getting your hands dirty" is meaningful AT ALL in regards to your alignment. as such, i have you in the dunno pile.
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Post Post #1214 (isolation #33) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:04 am

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In post 1211, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:You seemed apathetic in that Titus game! *squints*

Would anyone like a glass of pineapple juice?
how so?
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #34) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:07 am

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In post 1213, helium-3 wrote:haha, actually neither of us do

we're expected to have some meta knowledge on you, but you apparently don't have any on us. why is that?
most posts in the game again says no.

i am perfectly willing to say when i am lost or don't know, but for you it is not good enough - that is how i feel about you and your play but you won't take that as an answer. your signal:noise ratio is off the charts so i don't know what to consider valuable with regards to reading you. whereas you seem to be pretty confident about everything, ergo i expect you to understand me more than i do you.
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Post Post #1219 (isolation #35) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:09 am

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In post 1217, helium-3 wrote:if hoopla's getting "annoyed" she can bite me. asking for reads and scrutinizing said reads in a mafia game is not an unreasonable or outrageous request at all.
i gave em babe. if u don't like it maybe u can bite me too xoxo
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Post Post #1225 (isolation #36) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:20 am

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In post 1220, Juls wrote:It's the way you're doing it. I don't know if you are annoying her but you're annoying me for certain.
i'm not annoyed. i would say their posts have more of a numbing effect on me.

helium is just upset because i am not choosing to play the game the way they do.
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Post Post #1228 (isolation #37) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:56 am

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In post 1226, helium-3 wrote:the best way to play as town is to move town in while simultaneously move scum out. we do this through interaction.

we are actively doing this but hoopla isn't altho she says this is how she plays. do you see the difference? she only just now put out a readslist under duress only from us.
my readslist is basically the same as what it is has been since i was last online. it's because nothing has happened. you like to believe there is, because you believe you are making meaningful and insightful plays and are asking good questions, but i am pretty sure everything you believe now will go out the window by say day 3 or so when we actual information in the game like flips, a bunch of wagons and good role info. the majority of people's reads at this stage are coming from aesthetics and clashes of playstyle, in my opinion, which essentially makes d1 pseudo-utility/policy lynching.

today has just been an exercise in arguing for the sake of arguing. the result of all your bluster is a vote on sleepykrew a day and a bit out from deadline who few people suspect and who probably won't be lynched today. how does it feel to know that my play is currently furthering the game more than you?
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Post Post #1230 (isolation #38) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 10:59 am

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it's time for people to start compromising and congregating towards the bigger wagons. even though it's a speedgame, we don't have much time left. a single vote on a player (and worst of all no vote out) isn't good enough now.
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #39) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:10 am

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In post 1232, helium-3 wrote:knock all you want, but flips are meaningless without discussion beforehand. and this ...what did you call it? ... "bluster" is how i get my reads.

hoopla, how heavily would you say you use meta when formulating reads?
you get your reads at the expense of annoying a bunch of people and putting others into permanent catch-up mode. it's selfish play, in my opinion.

i use meta if i know the player fairly well.
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #40) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:36 am

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In post 1234, helium-3 wrote:there are single users who aren't very far behind us in terms of post count, and the only people in "catch up mode" are you and SaintKerrigan, as far as i know.
shos replaced in yesterday and he seems to be catching up without much trouble or complaint so you really think there are a lot of malcontents out there?

the only thing really annoying to me in this game is this passive-aggressive shaming, in my opinion.
throw in slandaar, nobody special and slice of life is back 12 pages now. Feu has posted once in the last 12 pages + sugoku. others have been behind at different times. dunno why we're debating this though.

my main point is you're not actually furthering the game. i can guarantee you right now, what is going to happen is there'll be a mad scramble five hours from deadline, and we won't have to time to assess the claim/interrogate them about it (an actual meaningful thing that could happen on D1), watch the fallout onto other wagons if need be (another meaningful thing that could happen D1) and make good decisions based on that info. almost 50% of D1's in mini normals are decided in the dying hours of deadline because nobody is willing to compromise before it's too late. that pattern replays itself over and over again because people are unnecessarily invested in their own reads (which are basically arbitrary anyway on D1) and won't compromise. learn to follow from time to time.
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Post Post #1241 (isolation #41) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:39 am

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In post 1234, helium-3 wrote:the only thing really annoying to me in this game is this passive-aggressive shaming, in my opinion.
i'm not being passive-aggressive. i'm outright telling you your playstyle is bad/anti-town.
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #42) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:49 am

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In post 1242, Feu et Vol wrote:Hoopla, how many games do you have to play with a person until you feel you are familiar with them enough to use meta? Would you say you could Meta me?

-Beast
it's not a black and white thing, like aha, i've finally read five games of beastcharizard to know how they play now. you'll usually just have a vague understanding of the type of player they are, then you notice more patterns the more you play with them.
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Post Post #1249 (isolation #43) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 11:58 am

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^would consider sheeping
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Post Post #1253 (isolation #44) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:21 pm

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In post 1250, helium-3 wrote:are you 1 to think that d1 is best if chaff is cut from the hull?

cos in that we may be opposite.

also there are a bunch of questions that you didn't answer in my previous posts.
i am pro-utility lynching and policy lynching (sometimes).

and its because they were probably irrelevant.
In post 1250, helium-3 wrote:what I don't understand is you seem to be giving up scumhunting no matter what; according to you there is no good way to handle d1. except that you seem to think that a dl/ut/pl is probs for the best but then you condemn that line of thinking cos you seem to think it will happen anyway cos every1 will jump on and rush decide. like I am seriously not getting it.
i've made solid stances on things i've deemed meaningful like the claims. when we have another claim today i'll comment on that, or on any of the big wagons (if they ever happen). i'll scumhunt once we have flips and connections instead of the inane waffling that has taken place so far. until then i'm in sheep-mode, sorry.
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Post Post #1262 (isolation #45) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:35 pm

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In post 1256, helium-3 wrote:the only claim you have said you believe in so far (mebbe I missed it) was in julz neighborhood claim.

there is the marquis claim (did you comment on this wait aren't they in your dunno category and desp whom you are sheeping the read is in your townpile cos you are "sheeping your townreads!" who was supporting us).

so mebbe you could revisit the stances that you supposedly have?
maybe if the game wasn't so bloated you'd remember me talking about all my town reads. because i have.
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Post Post #1263 (isolation #46) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 12:35 pm

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^okay, that was passive-aggressive this time
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Post Post #1283 (isolation #47) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 1:07 pm

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In post 1278, Sugoku Sugoi wrote:Juls's posting has felt insanely town especially the posts where she considered replacing out and wanted to spare her replacement the trouble of choosing who to neighborize. I have a hard time seeing her fake it to such a level.
good posting!
In post 1280, SleepyKrew wrote:Ummm I'm not pushing your lynch atm because I know it's not viable... which is the whole point... whereas helium is voting and not even trying to push the lynch they're voting
Like did you even try to read what you were quoting?
good posting!!!
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Post Post #1286 (isolation #48) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 1:13 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1284, Oversoul wrote:Hoopla let's talk about Nonsense

What do you make of their claim and subsequent play despite Zach never using a Miller in his setups before (and publicly disliking the cop role)?
how many setups has he run? he's probably never used two neighbourisers in a game either if that's your logic.
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Post Post #1291 (isolation #49) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 1:18 pm

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In post 1288, Feu et Vol wrote:also if anyone tries to say my feelings toward this game / my reads, even, are invalidated by me admitting to being in a bad mood today, it would be more productive if you selfvoted instead

-marquis
marquis lil buddy, you need to get your vote off julz and put it on a big wagon.
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Post Post #1299 (isolation #50) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 1:26 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1295, Juls wrote:Where does he publicly dislike the role?
That's more damning than never using it.
Do you have a link for that discussion?
I agree with this.

I also believe that a hydra might be less likely than a single-slot player to fakeclaim D1 as scum as it requires both players to believe it's a smart idea. I don't really know either player though or if they have a history of creative plays, so someone else might be able to comment there if they have more knowledge.

I feel like it's a claim that can be worked out deeper in the game when the vibe of roles flipped start showing up. For example, if we actually do have a Cop, then I'm way more likely to believe it (especially since Zach hates Cops apparently).
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Post Post #1320 (isolation #51) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:22 pm

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In post 1317, Oversoul wrote:Here is Zach supporting millers despite no cops.

I may have misspoke when I said Zach hates cops. He has used one in one of his games and this was more outdated than I thought (and addressing sanities). Link.
good stuff.

that is reinforcing my liking of the miller claim.
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Post Post #1356 (isolation #52) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:11 am

Post by Hoopla »

Looks like the SaintK wagon is dying. Time to move on.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: shos

Slice of Life, Feu, NS, Jason and SaintK all need to make a vote soon.
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Post Post #1368 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:20 am

Post by Hoopla »

I believe Not_Mafia's VT claim, by the way. It's pretty much the exact template I look for in a truthful D1 VT claim.

Fun stat: In the last 60 Mini Normals there have been 47 D1 Vanilla Townie claims. 4 have been mafia, 43 have been town.


Site meta at the moment is clearly trending away from scum going for a VT fakeclaim early in the game - they almost always claim a PR when they want to protect themselves. It's pretty much the standard play for any player with a couple of months or more experience. The standard town play iin response is (generally) to lynch that player because theoretically their claim shouldn't change anything. But it actually does. I would like to make a non-standard play and not lynch the VT claim. We have an opportunity to play one step ahead of site meta, because I am sure I am the only one who knows how lopsided these stats are at the moment, so this isn't a case of scum trying to wifom angle (occam's razor: it's much more likely his play is just like everyone else's who claimed VT D1).

This is probably unorthodox reasoning to not lynch someone, but it seems like a great idea to me. Vote shos.
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Post Post #1371 (isolation #54) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:24 am

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In post 1342, Not_Mafia wrote:Okay, Skrew is probably right there, so because of my role and the chance of me being an NK is very low anyway, claim VT. Sorry for my rubbish/non-existent play this game, but a bulk of the thread has been egos butting heads and personal disputes and I've found it hard to generate any content in this
Apologetic about his play, acknowledges he was rubbish. Doesn't claim a good role. He clearly doesn't expect to live.

Even though his reads are wishy-washy, he still does drop a reads list too. These are all hallmarks of a true VT claim.
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Post Post #1373 (isolation #55) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:32 am

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In post 1372, Sugoku Sugoi wrote:I do wonder though why Hoopla decided to look at the stats at this particular point. What was the thought process that led you decide "okay, N_M claimed VT, let me go find all the D1 claims and figure out how many are scum?"
It's something I've been researching independent of this game, and this is the first opportunity I've had to share them.
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Post Post #1375 (isolation #56) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:42 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1374, Juls wrote:
In post 1372, Sugoku Sugoi wrote:I am not entriely sold on this and the paranoid part of me makes me think Hoopla told him to claim VT in their scum QT with daytalk.
This should not be forgotten in the event of a hoopla/not_mafia scum flip.
I better be right then!!
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Post Post #1381 (isolation #57) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:55 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1380, helium-3 wrote:DO WE HAVE THE NUMBERS TO SPEEDLYNCH MASTINA
shos is a fine lynch. now isn't the time for ambitious side-projects.
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Post Post #1384 (isolation #58) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:01 am

Post by Hoopla »

interesting.

my first gut reaction is to lynch it in case he is lying, but if truthful get a second lynch out of D1 to give us more info to work with on D2.
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Post Post #1385 (isolation #59) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:03 am

Post by Hoopla »

Helium, here is your chance to sweet-talk shos into vengekilling mastina.

personally, if shos is town, i'm fine with him picking based on his own townie brain, rather than a group of townies and some scum trying to influence him.
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Post Post #1388 (isolation #60) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:09 am

Post by Hoopla »

don't really have a read on jason, so wouldn't be mad at that shot. speedysaki is obv-town, though.
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Post Post #1413 (isolation #61) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:32 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1409, Imperium wrote:So maybe she just looks scummy as all get out as town? I don't know just nothing she's said sounds genuine (sorry if you're town, but you don't.)
the paranoia will always be there for most people because i put a lot of effort into scum games. once you learn to look past those base instincts, i am actually pretty readable.
In post 1409, Imperium wrote:Hoopla just feels so smarmy I don't know how people are town reading her.
it's a towntell for me. listen to them.
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Post Post #1415 (isolation #62) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:39 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1409, Imperium wrote:Okay the IT'S A VT CLAIM SO IT'S DEFINITELY TOWN sentiment is extremely twitch inducing. Site meta has actually turned into scum claiming VT because people think that scum will claim a role to save themselves or to out a role, so a VT claim is looked at as a town claim and I'm surprised that it's going oh he claimed VT scum wouldn't do that, he must be town.
Except that's exactly the opposite of what the stats say. I have a moderate sample of 8.5% of D1 VT claims being scum, which is more reliable than your cobbled together "hmm, I think I remember scum claiming VT this one time". I literally don't know how you can come to that conclusion. Granted, I think some high-level thinkers might be able to claim VT and escape it, but these only people familiar with the meta to this level and Not_Mafia definitely isn't. He's a level 1 player and would make a level 1 play which is claiming a PR when you're going down.
In post 1409, Imperium wrote:I'm pretty sure 95% of the time I've been scum and claimed, I've claimed VT.
I am talking about D1 VT claims, not in massclaim or any other situation.
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #63) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1414, Imperium wrote:In general I find these dangerous pursuits and it bugs me that Hoopla is encouraging it because in general it's just not a great idea.
There is guesswork involved no matter what you do. I'm outguessing the mod because at this point in time, I think it's more reliable than outguessing the player.
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Post Post #1418 (isolation #64) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:47 am

Post by Hoopla »

it's all good possum.
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Post Post #1420 (isolation #65) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:56 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1419, shos wrote:so, if you were me who would you shoot?
probably a null read that has been wagoned at some point in the game like saintK or SAD. jason isn't a shot i'd complain about either.
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #66) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:23 pm

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Eh, kinda having second thoughts about shos. Like I expect him to be Vengeful here a lot of the time - that's a really creative fakeclaim if he's using Nero's super VT comment as a crumb. I suppose scum Vengefuls exist too, but yeah, expecting shos to flip town.

I don't think there's really enough time to get a town swarm to power an alternate lynch through who isn't not_mafia. I think both are town, but at least with a shos-lynch we get another flip going into N1.
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Post Post #1475 (isolation #67) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 12:43 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1470, Oversoul wrote:Commuter is so weird. Dafuq you doing Zach.
of all the claims, i believe this one the least.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #68) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:54 pm

Post by Hoopla »

This day is railroaded towards a shos lynch. Lets get on with it shall we??
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Post Post #1559 (isolation #69) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 2:59 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1557, Imperium wrote:I've been a commuter that could commute during the day or night, not consecutively, but I could leave during the day, which affected all day actions even the lynch.
that seems rare. i've only ever seen night commuters. same with stuff like bullet-proofs - they're usually not immune to vengekills.
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Post Post #1587 (isolation #70) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:34 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Just hammer already. We're just waiting for the sake of waiting...
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Post Post #1591 (isolation #71) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 5:40 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Good work gang
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Post Post #1601 (isolation #72) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:10 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1600, SleepyKrew wrote:daytalk!
Did really no one else bring that up or did I just miss it/forget?
yeah, people have mentioned coaching or whatever. nothing new.
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Post Post #1605 (isolation #73) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:21 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1603, SleepyKrew wrote:Doesn't that invalidate your low-level player thing?
it does if you believe i am coaching him.

if anything, i'd expect a scumteam with any other combination of players in this game to help him to make a good PR claim, not a VT claim, because scum could never have expected such a rigorous defense of a VT claim.
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Post Post #1610 (isolation #74) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:28 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1609, Feu et Vol wrote:yeah this. this sounds fake. (it's probably fake.) (i have too many townreads already.)

-marquis
agree-ish
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Post Post #1612 (isolation #75) » Mon Jun 16, 2014 6:34 pm

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i dunno. you tell me.
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Post Post #1721 (isolation #76) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Gotta listen to the stats, Tammy. I guess not the worst vig shot you could have made, but come on...
In post 1669, Desperado wrote:all three major deadline wagons being on town (and us being aware of that immediately) makes me think that this game is gonna hit easy mode sooner rather than later
This outcome indicates that scum were in a relatively safe position all day, which is what I was starting to become of aware of towards the end of the day (it seemed obvious that all are major wagons were prob-town) - a slew of slow stalling wagons with no real impetus indicates that scum have no team members in the line of fire, so they aren't going to push other wagons to further the game or consider bussing. I think the scumteam will lie in the lurkers who have flown under the radar and essentially players who have come under little pressure. I'm expecting vote-parky behaviour early on wagons for scum, with frequent vote-hoppers amongst the town wagons to be very townie.

I'm definitely wary of Perpetual Nonsense and Sugoi Sugoku in light of this new information - two players I was reading as very town yesterday. I feel a lot better about helium-3 today and I feel sketchy of Slice of Life and Slandaar.

Thanks for colouring in the votes, Desp. Here's a vote on Slandaar to thank you...

VOTE: Slandaar
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Post Post #1724 (isolation #77) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:42 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1722, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:Why exactly are you wary of Sugoi?
Fits the profile of what I'm expecting scum's behaviour to be. The reason the game was so slow and no wagons were getting off the ground was because scum felt safe and were just chilling on safe votes.
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Post Post #1728 (isolation #78) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:50 am

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In post 1720, Perpetual Nonsense wrote:hoopla for that frenetic optimism, while obscure about her/his full goals. most posts are short and dont have a great point in them
my goals were pretty obvious. get on with the game when it's obvious what is going to happen. however, what does that actually mean/why is it scummy? explain to me town vs. scum motivation for "frenetic optimism yet with obscure goals", because they're evocative words that definitely make a sentence, but i don't understand why them all together makes you feel suspicious of me.
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Post Post #1731 (isolation #79) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:55 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1729, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:So I did VCA and honestly SKrew looks pretty damning based on that alone.
how so?
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Post Post #1736 (isolation #80) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:59 am

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In post 1732, Sugoku Sugoi wrote:But your VCA feels really arbitrary and simplistic though Hoopla. I mean, if town have a read they are confident in, it wouldn't make sense to hop around all the wagons and if scum are opportunistic, they would go with the flow which means changing wagons. I find both of them to be null.
I expect to be more rigorous and fine-tine my reads over the course of the day. What I am saying now is there is a reason D1 played out the way it played out. You can expect scum to fit the profile of what I've described more than average.
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Post Post #1737 (isolation #81) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:00 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1734, Ser Arthur Dayne wrote:His votes look opportunistic scum and there's some rather large wagons with like everyone but him either confirmed town, or highly likely town.
which ones? show me.
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #82) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:07 am

Post by Hoopla »

SAD, that is also reasoning for Sugoku Sugoi too.
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Post Post #1742 (isolation #83) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:08 am

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what's the case on jason again? someone give me the footnotes...
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Post Post #1750 (isolation #84) » Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:24 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1746, SleepyKrew wrote:ISO me ctrl f jason
can't you just give me a succinct four-line highlights package?
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Post Post #1767 (isolation #85) » Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:54 am

Post by Hoopla »

I do kinda side with jason on this one. Its just a lot of empty rhetoric from sleepykrew.

Plus his claim sucks.
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Post Post #1920 (isolation #86) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:19 am

Post by Hoopla »

Here...

Lmao at the claim. However lets at least just humour him and let him use his "power" and claim a result in case its somehow true. So yeah. Use your power now, claim the result. Then we lynch him.
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Post Post #1921 (isolation #87) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:21 am

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1912, jasonT1981 wrote:I think he should use it, and probably use it on me since I am the 2nd highest wagon
If the claim is true, this is a GF post.
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Post Post #1922 (isolation #88) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:23 am

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Dont use the cop on jason. Use it on a middle of the road player with low odds of being lynched or nk'ed.
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Post Post #1924 (isolation #89) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 9:36 am

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Slice of life or Desp are my picks btw.
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Post Post #2001 (isolation #90) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:02 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1932, Slandaar wrote:I don't think I have ever seen a GF ask to be copped. What about people asking me to cop others? are they scum directing me to their GF buddy??!!! Hrmmm.
Now that I think about it more, I kinda agree. Wifom etc, but it is a little bit too obvious. I don't think he'd ask to be copped in general as scum though either.

So, he's either town or GF, not any other kind of scum.
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Post Post #2002 (isolation #91) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:04 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I'm not super mad about a Sugoi investigation because I am starting to develop a gut scum read on that slot, but it probably wasn't an optimal choice because if he's town, he was probably a very realistic candidate for the NK anyway.

Of course, this is all assuming Slandaar's claim is true. I'm still skeptical but also not as sure about its fakeness as I once was before...
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Post Post #2004 (isolation #92) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:09 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 1937, Sugoku Sugoi wrote:Slandaar's claim is bullshit. this is why:

1. cop is the easiest role for scum to fakeclaim. there is also absolutely nothing in his entire ISO leading up to said claim.
2. why the hell would he cop US as opposed to someone who's actually dangerous as scum (e.g. mastin) or someone who doesn't have much content to analyze? this is why: I don't believe he thinks we're actually getting lynched this game. so him faking an inno on us is a v convenient play - we're under just enough suspicion for him to justify it, yet he doesn't have to remove anyone from the potential pool of lynches.

I also hated . "believe me, I took everything you all said into consideration" -> proceeds to cop us out of complete nowhere. it's complete fucking BS

I intend to vote Slandaar as soon as he gets his result.
Having said all that, this is a well-reasoned post. Honestly am really curious about what Slandaar will say next, but I think regardless of the result we still have to lynch him...
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Post Post #2007 (isolation #93) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:43 pm

Post by Hoopla »

Its definitely wifom, but it doesn't mean you can't come to a conclusion about it. It seems much more likely he'd ask to be copped as uninspired town who wants a cheap way to dispell suspicion or a cheeky GF, rather than mafia going for some next level wifom.
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Post Post #2010 (isolation #94) » Fri Jun 20, 2014 7:55 pm

Post by Hoopla »

In post 2009, Desperado wrote:ps your analysis is ignoring the possibility of slandaarscum/jasonscum. in that case jasonscum would have no qualms about asking to be investigated.
That's a good point...

I feel like this will be easier to analyze once we see what slandaar claims and what alignment he flips.

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