Song Contest U-Pick - GAME OVER

[morph the cat]

Garruk - Roleblocker - ?
Fish - Doctor - Brand New, You Won't Know
SpyreX - Doctor/Lover - The Cure, Lovecats
Empking - Lover/? - Chester See & Ryan Higa - Bromance
Desp - Mason - Drake, Crew Love
morph - x-shot BP - Hale and Pace, Well 'Ard Song
PoPP - 1-shot Cop - Boards of Canada, Dayvan Cowboy
generic - VT - Prodigy, Invaders must die
Pasch - VT - Johnny Cash Hurt
mykonian - VT - Wheels, Foo Fighters
notsci - VT - Cups, Pitch Perfect
MoS - VT - Sarah Brightman, I Lost My Heart to a Starship Trooper
Deas - VT - The Dresden Dolls, Girl Anachronism

[morph the cat]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDBes_WvlxQ

We didn't pick the song. I've listened to it a couple times. The song is about a couple of guys who are full of bravado and think they're tough, but keep biting off more than they can chew.

[morph the cat]

We're ok with a Myko lynch.

VOTE: mykonian

L-2 I think.

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Wow that's a fast movement to L-2.

I'm hated around MS and yet my wagon could only muster 1 person...

It's POE at this point and you're slightly more amusing to keep around.

morphpost

[morph the cat]

See the hat? It's ffery's hydra diplomat hat.

[morph the cat]

What do you think would be a better wagon?

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Morph, you never responded to my reply to your request to my offer to answer what you wanted to know.

Thoughts?

There were no big surprises in your reads list or in your strategies.

Lynch is going to be a compromise, but we're in PoE mode. I worry about town complacency when a game reaches this point and beyond. We'll see how tomorrow goes.

[morph the cat]

Regarding what, exactly?

Well it would be an easy thing to PoE down through the most to least likely remaining candidates. But I was picking your brain on if you had other thoughts, like for example when if ever is it worth testing the 'one lover is scum' theory? Do you think there is merit to looking at the pr claims even if I'm currently looking at the wrong ones?
Has mykonian just admitted to being scum with that last bit of wifom and if so do we ignore him or look more closely at POPP?

Myko has worried me a little ever since it became clear his read on us changed without any sort of in-thread thought process showing when or why.

[morph the cat]

I disagree, Desp. There was an awful lot of genuine frustration about the SpyreX investigation not going anywhere, and the suspicion of me/us for applying brakes to that wagon as hard as we could without actually claiming felt genuine, too.

That reminds me of something I should reread.

[morph the cat]

I'm busy rereading day 2 atm.

The implication is a smart town. I agree, though there's actually a fair bit of player overlap between Xenogears and Song. We're all older and wiser. And presumably town.

@Garruk, Desp is town. caledfwitch towntold in one of her first posts, and her confidence when she was active fits like a jigsaw puzzle piece given the mason claim. When the claim surfaced it totally made sense of her play.

This is something I'm good at. Nati should remember how his claim in deaths diner instantly spun my read 180 degrees because his play totally lined up with his crazy-ass role.

[morph the cat]

@Garruk?

as if I have significant interactions apart from popp. And I might just be bussing him (hint)

[morph the cat]

Compromise was the lesser important word there. What evidence do I have to suggest Myko is town? You know, every single fucking thing both he and m4stin posted.

you've gotta be shitting me

@Desp, aside from that one post, what do you think points to myko-scum beyond PoE?

[morph the cat]

Pasch needs to die.

@ mollie: Disappeared my ass. This is all you're getting for now unless drunk/stoned me decides he wants to play mafia on his birthday later.

Desp, this was late day 2 after the DV wagon collapsed and the SpyreX wagon started to pick up steam again.

What changed your mind about Pasch?

[morph the cat]

Happy birthday to me! This is my 34th year on earth, and my 6th(?) year playing mafia, albeit not all of those years were active years. I hope I’ve gotten even a little bit better. Our little game here has gone quite fast since I went V/LA. More so than I had expected. Nevertheless, I have a few things to say, although they mostly focus on DV and SpyreX.

First of all, I think DV is town. There are two reasons for this. While he has been silly and wishy-washy and even somewhat contradictory (see the ‘fish case), it feels like he is town trying to overcome the inertia of his slot. As scum, it would have been easier for him to come in and follow the popular opinion, but he didn’t, and that makes me feel like he is giving his honest reads. That’s the first reason. The second reason is related to what he said about me, and that’s all I’ll say on that.

As for SpyreX, a few things really bug me. First of all, after Garruk’s claim, SpyreX said he would be willing to claim if necessary. However, when I (essentially) said it was necessary, he replied I should be murdered. I think he read the tide of opinion and switched his stance accordingly. Many of you have said that SpyreX shouldn’t claim in order to WIFOM the mafia. In a vacuum, I agree. However, with the roleblock, and the NK, I think pinning SpyreX to a claim will be much more valuable to the town in the long run. Finally, again, sure: a million things could have happened last night. However, the scenarios I posited earlier, I maintain, are, by far, the most likely, and, therefore, it is safe for SpyreX to claim. I say that it is important for the town to understand whether SpyreX was involved in the NK or not.

If SpyreX’s claim makes sense (which, to his credit, I’m sure it will), we can move on to another wagon (Pecan, MoS, Pasch, etc.) and town will go into the night with far more information that if we just lynch DV now.

Porkens pushed the hell out of the SpyreX wagon on day 2. He wanted to force a claim at first but later just wanted him to die. This is him pushing SpyreX over DV. The DV wagon had started to crumble by then, but there were a couple dozen Porkens posts prior to this pushing a SpyreX lynch.

My question is whether this makes sense if SpyreX' lover is scum.

[morph the cat]

I'm more and more trusting of SpyreX fwiw

This was day 3, after empking replaced in and posted what was probably his only wall, much of which was a defense of SpyreX.

So maybe the scum team was willing to lose the lovers slot rather than t-bone (who several people talked about compromising on after Nacho posted his T-Bone, MoS wall near the end of day 2. The timing of that momentum shift is pretty chaotic, though. Maybe so.

[morph the cat]

@Mod, in the hypothetical case of a 1-shot active non-killing role being blocked by a roleblocking action, would the shot be counted as used or un-used?

The shot would not be used.

In the hypothetical case of a 1-shot active non-killing role being used on a town ascetic, would the shot be counted as used or un-used?

The shot would be used.

Sonique - Sky (Submitted by Porochaz)

Song Contest 41: This track came in 24th, ahead of just two other songs. This was the lowest place Porochaz had ever come in at that time.

Vote Count 3.5

porkens (8) - Mastermind of Sin, mykonian, Paschendale, Empking, Generic, pieceofpecanpie, AJ the Epic, Desperado (L-1)
pieceofpecanpie (3) - SpyreX, 50 Shades of Purple, Porkens
Spyrex (1) - Garruk Relentless
DeasVail (1) - T-Bone

Not Voting (4) - morph the cat, DeasVail, notscience, Formerfish

The deadline for Day 3 is Thursday, January 30th 8:00 PM EST. With 17 people alive, it takes 9 to lynch. Deadline in (expired on 2014-01-30 20:00:00).

V/LAs:
50 Shades of Purple (1/26)

Unvote

Either this wagon is scum driven or my reads fucking blow this game. {MoS, myk, Pasch, Emp, Generic, PoPP, AJ} contains exactly 1.5 town reads.

I'd rather believe my reads are pretty solid, so...why are scum bussing Porkens with 10 days left to deadline?

I did have concerns about garruk, but there were some solid arguments made against me there relating to timing and lack of pressure on them.

It would be ballsy... Not unheard of, but still ballsy.

Garruk being scum is kinda the only way T-Bone's claim makes sense?

Porkens is getting run. T-Bone claims a ridiculous fake guilty to try and take attention away from Porkens--either we lynch his guilty or we lynch him is likely the thought there.

But it fails. We lynch Porkens anyway. T-Bone gets lynched the next day on the back of Garruk's claiming a successful roleblock on them--but why would T-Bone even perform the kill? Surely there's someone with a lower profile.

On the face it looks like T-Bone was just a moron and cost his team both himself and Porkens, but as we can see that was a pretty spectacularly bad scum plan. So was there an unforeseen positive consequence? Conf-towning Garruk?

I actually think Garruk's having claimed d1 makes it even more likely that they are scum. They were not accepted as town because of their claim and couldn't get their "guilty" lynched, and then started lurking for a while. I can see a plan forming N2, when Porkens was looking like a likely lynch candidate, for T-Bone to have a fakeclaim ready to distract from a potential Porkens wagon, with the built in caveat that if it goes bad, they can sacrifice a night kill so that Garruk can claim a guilty on T-Bone.

So best case they give Porkens a stay of execution and get a townie lynched at the price of T-Bone. Worst case, T-Bone and Porkens both die but Garruk comes out conf-town.

Up to now I've just been assuming that the scum were acting suboptimally because the play doesn't make any sense if Garruk is just town who caught scumBone.

This is EXACTLY why I've been worried about Garruk lately.

What point did you just notice, Generic?

It's been mentioned plenty of times that if Garruk is a town-aligned roleblocker than there's more than likely a scum-aligned one out there as well. I talked about it as recently as post 3065.

I think it's actually more likely that Garruk is simply a scum RB than that there are two RBs.

Porkens pushed the hell out of the SpyreX wagon on day 2. He wanted to force a claim at first but later just wanted him to die. This is him pushing SpyreX over DV. The DV wagon had started to crumble by then, but there were a couple dozen Porkens posts prior to this pushing a SpyreX lynch.

My question is whether this makes sense if SpyreX' lover is scum.

Shit, this is a good point. If either of the lovers were scum, what would motivate Porkens to try and out that fact and thus make it really obvious when neither of the lovers died night after night?

What do you think about my post 3303?

[morph the cat]

^^ first two quotes are leftovers.

[morph the cat]

@ Morph: I keep coming back to 2459 myself. What the fuck was going on right then?!?

The reason I quoted those two posts in the first place was because I wanted to look at the trajectories from there. I got kinda lost though in my reread. The thing I came away with was how certain nachomollie were that MoS hardbussed porkens starting from day 1, and that porkens, T-Bone, MoS made sense as a scum team. Their read was firming up to solid scum at the very time that my MoS read was flipping to town.

Sometimes nacho and I synch really well in our reads. I think it happens more often when we're a hydra or otherwise conftown to each other.

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Desp who do you think we should lynch tomorrow, depending on myko's flip?

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Is there an echo in here?

PEdit: I say stick to the lynchpool regardless of his flip.

Does it change your preferred order?

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Hell I don't know if you even have a preferred order other than not yet on Pasch.

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Hell I don't know if you even have a preferred order other than not yet on Pasch.

I just quoted them in 3231. It's PoPP-Emp-myk-Deas-NS-Pasch.

The only real change is that pecan might be town, and he would be replaced by Garruk

Sorry. I've been in the wayback machine all day.

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Yeah, could be.

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Wasn't he clueless about the FF's doc claim too during day 3 claim madness? Yeah p sure he was.

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rumors of thread's eminent closure were slightly exaggerated.

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Pecan, how did you get on last night?

eyebrows hit hairline.

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I feel like I am lost here. GR what the fuck are you on about? Gen what does your question to pecan even mean? MoS, why is it such a hard concept for you to grasp that people don't find Pasch to be the scummiest of the possible scum?

Desperado is now confirmed town. Emp could be right about the WIFOM, or he is scum. It is actually something I thought about as well that I would possibly do as scum. Although, why would scum take out the mason who wasn't actually playing? Where are we on out lynch pool?

Because the mason not playing is less likely to be protected.

[morph the cat]

fferyposting so far today.

Only one of the lovers has claimed doctor.

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Why would scum need a doctor if there is only one night kill?

Your question about both doctors being lovers still isn't making sense to me.

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Generic claimed vanilla. I think he was just fucking around with the Vig stuff.

It's possible that scum have an incentive not to go after the lover-doc beyond just losing a lover-scum. But I doubt it would be a protective role given there's no evidence of an additional kill after 5 nights.

If I put on my tinfoil hat, the only thing I can think of that would even remotely point that way is T-Bone claiming seer with a guilty on nachomollie. It could be they had reason to expect another faction or kill due to scum protection role. And it might have been a complete red herring a la that game of GiF's that had a mafia strongman even though town had no protective roles.

It doesn't really make sense, though.

[morph the cat]

The fact you didn't consider this with quadz-mod is :/

I'm not very familiar with quadz-mod. Chef mafia is the only one I've played.

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VOTE: generic

Cabd says "Red Wedding".

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I just watched that episode for the first time. Sad face.

I'm guessing you are referencing the game here though, can you/he explain more?

Cabd left me some instant msgs overnight. He said he was ok with a generic vote because of how much shit generic is pulling, which he also did in the Red Wedding game.

We've read over generic's response, to which I comment "Interesting", and Cabd responds "BUT IS IT SCUMMY"? This is an inside joke, but there's some validity to the question.

- generic's reaction is to self-vote, which is an AtE and in his next post he follows up with AtF.

neither of which are slam-dunk scummy, and neither of which give me even the slightest warm fuzzy.

generic why do you feel that the doc protect info should be posted today?

[morph the cat]

Cabd left me some instant msgs overnight. He said he was ok with a generic vote because of how much shit generic is pulling, which he also did in the Red Wedding game.

This is so vague. What kind of shit was he pulling in Red Wedding?

I've asked him for details, but he's confined to phoneposting atm. More when I have it.

@generic why would I backpedal? If we're wrong we're wrong. It happens.

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More AtF?

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For fucks sake ffery, don't do this to me.

:/

What do you think about his posts this game day?

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UNVOTE

Not while I'm digging through the RW game for Cabd.

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Quoting from a locked thread is a bit of a pain.

The thing that pinged for Cabd was the egging on of votes and the pussies comment. The last post of these is the one I think Cabd was remembering from the other game. The others have a similar tone but the implication is more "dumb sheep" than "cowards".

Subject: The Red Wedding - The Goose is Loose

Is there a reason cabd that you have turned into a mindless sheep waiting on cdb to tell you what to do?

When cdb was alive you didn't buddy like this to him, is it cos he now can't question you on it that you are happy for him to make all your decisions for you?

How about you assess me yourself instead of passing the buck

Subject: The Red Wedding - The Goose is Loose

Looks like I mixed amrun with venmar...

All you sheep look the same anyways...

Subject: The Red Wedding - The Goose is Loose

Maybe I just don't want to defend myself.

Maybe I just want to see who are the men amongst you guys and who are the cowards.

Will serve me well for future games.

Cos lets face it, you have sat on my L-1 for days at the say so of a dead guy, many intending to hammer but none of you willing to do a thing but repeatedly ask for a claim or whine that I'm not defending myself how you want me to.

I got my victory, metal sonic was lynched instead of me. I lost interest the moment he started with the over the top stuff and made it my mission that he would go before me. I got that wish do thank you to the flock.

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Oh yeah there are some tonal differences, but the approach is similar.

Has generic's scum game evolved since then? Does he still sound mechanical as scum?

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How is that the same? Aren't those attacks on people who have already voted? In this I'm goading people to actually make the vote.

Mafia is a game of psychology. If someone tells you you are a pussy for not voting for them, do you fear the vote or do it all the more?

Whereas if someone questions your actions as being a sheep that's an attempt to diminish your action so others are hesitant to follow.


You voted off of that?

I voted off of far less. I voted because my hydra partner wanted to vote you and I've gotten uneasy about you. The on-again, off-again level of involvement seems to coincide with your wagons, but it's hard to say which drives the other.

[morph the cat]

Oh yeah there are some tonal differences, but the approach is similar.

Has generic's scum game evolved since then? Does he still sound mechanical as scum?

Have I ever mentioned I've never lost on MS as scum?

Yes you have. I don't know that never losing at MS is a huge accomplishment as scum, though. It depends on the game and on the player list IME.

That game is actually the weakest one I've had. The rest of the team carried he win in the end. All the rest I've end gamed I think.

Ok.

Back in a short while. More then.

[morph the cat]

Is deas known to bus? His first vote upon replacing was T-Bone iirc.

Then he apparently picked up on a fake crumb that T-Bone posted about nachomollie or something.

[morph the cat]

Generic's town.

I'm leaning slowly back towards morph being scum.

:/

leaning on thin air there.

[morph the cat]

It is ffery.

If you actually think scum-me would get past a determined town-Nacho interrogation I don't even know what to say.

[morph the cat]

generic it's more the OFF again than the ON again that has concerned me. :/

We're trying to get a better read here. I don't object to being snarked at, but I would hope that by day 6 you at least have some sense that we're both working at this game and trying to not let our stances completely ossify, regardless of your alignment.

There aren't many players who can get under my skin and irritate me to the point of messing up my grasp of the game. I don't think you're one of them.

[morph the cat]

I think we'll be willing to hammer after we get some thoughts sorted and posted. Give us tomorrow.

[morph the cat]

Is that Cabd?

No, but this is.

[morph the cat]

I am so excited to be lynched tomorrow. I'm having flashbacks to ASoIaF already.

Also willing to hammer but I'll let morph do their thing, even if I don't think they have our best interests in mind.

Still townreading you and don't understand how your day 2-4 play can be seen as anything other than town.

More about that after sleep.

[morph the cat]

I don't have confident reads, and I don't have the time right now to get any that I'm confident of. I know that it's crap of me to be like this, but at the same time, don't pretend that you need up-to-date reads to pretend to read me as town, because I'm pretty sure everyone knows that's not true.

Also, let's face it, no one listened to my reads while I was alive and more active, so why should I go through the effort of reading everything and coming up with reads, when I'm just going to be lynched and not listened to anyway? I know this sounds incredibly defeatist, but it's kind of true, isn't it?

Reading your ISO, it appears that you haven't been caught up since since January 27.

Spoiler:

I'm very sorry for not getting to this. I don't expect you to wait for me, but if day hasn't ended I'll read through everything tomorrow night.

Catching up on this will require more time than I currently have, but I will catch up tomorrow.

I know that I've apologised a million times this game and that my play here has been very below-par for a while now, but I want to put forward that it's not alignment-relevant. A combination of too many commitments, a much busier uni schedule and personal problems has made keeping up with mafia difficult for me, and any catching up I will do is bound to be slow, but I am here and will slowly try to get back to a stage where I feel I can adequately participate. Despite having opinions and things to post now, I'm not there yet.

I still need to think about all the claims and what they mean for the corresponding players' alignments, but right now, I think I would most like to lynch MoS. I feel that his reactions to many of the claims were too convenient, particularly his widespread lack of trust for ANY of the claims (as town one is bound to trust some more than others) and that weird dice roll thing when it would make much more sense to actually think about the optimal order himself. I don't think I've covered his posts to sufficiently explain why I thought he was scum as I read through, so I may try to explain it better later, but I don't feel that Pasch or Pecan are particularly scummy (of course if I get the chance to more closely inspect this may change) and I'm not getting all giddy about the idea of an Empking lynch either.

I missed DeasVail in my earlier list...thought he was already dead for some reason. Anyway, I've already made my thoughts clear on him, I think. His wagon rubbed me the wrong way, and so I'd put him on my probs town list...probably right above notscience.

Who is buying this?

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

I am ok with this now, but I would appreciate arguments against it.

I am around and will post when I can.

I am around and will post when I can.

This is getting really old.

I know.

I kinda wonder why DeasVail is having a hard time joining any one of the three major wagons.

It might be because I haven't been reading the game!

~~

Catching up now.

Uhhh, DV I was implying that he missed you from that list because you're scum together. So if you believe he's lying then you're proposing we lynch MoS today and you tomorrow...?

It was because his townread of me seemed really really lazy and like he didn't care about my alignment at all, especially compared to his content comparing scumbuddies or whatever that shows he's actually willing to put effort in.

Either way, I think either our cop claim or our seer claim is likely false.

Why do you now think both are false?

At the moment, I'm considering Emp/Pasch lynches > Pecan lynch. Probably would go with Emp if for some reason there's a rush (which it seems there might be?), but I can't see anything to indicate that.

I am unimpressed with deas today.

It's a sitewide activity thing.

My immediate reaction to the Mykonian wagon is that it's not the best, but I'll have a closer look at him later.

Um ok.

Ok, I'm going to be honest and say I have no idea right now who I want to lynch, but I still think MoS may be scum because his reasons for townreading me is

still

complete crap.

I will try and get a better idea of things when I can, but I could easily see it being something like MoS/Garruk/other.

Oh and other things I've said about MoS in the past probably still apply too.

I don't have the strength to fight my lynch properly, but I'm town because of the whole T-Bone thing and Porkens obviously wanting to wait for me to save him.

I'm really sorry that I've been so crap this game, and no, this isn't something I'm more likely to do as scum than as town. I could even argue that the reverse is true, but there has been at least one scum game where I was going through similar things to what I am now and couldn't keep up, so I guess my not posting is not proof that I'm town, but it's definitely not proof that I'm scum, and I feel that I have posted enough for people to get a read on me. I don't know what I can say except to look at my interactions with T-Bone. I know that we're not scumbuddies so I think there's probably something there that indicates we weren't. I also think that my interaction with Porkens was very weird for scumbuddies, and I think it should be fairly obvious from my posts that I genuinely thought he was some song-related PR and he recognised this and thought that a doctor claim would be enough to satisfy me even though it wasn't.

Obviously Nacho read me correctly too and I hate to kind of put this on him, but he was right! And I know I've said this kind of thing before as scum, but I'm town this time guys! And I just feel so dodgy saying this right now that I don't believe I'd let myself keep typing like this without hitting the backspace key a few times if I was scum, so if there's any softness left in your exponentially hardening hearts to change your minds on me this is your chance!!!

Also, to be completely honest, I feel conflicted because I kind of want to be lynched because it would mean that I don't have to fail at keeping up with this anymore, but I know that that's bad and that the ideal is that I don't get lynched so I guess I am trying to just say whatever i'm thinking as I'm thinking it in an attempt to convince you of my towniness, but I don't know if it's going to work, so...

I left out a couple of posts that were actual questions/content.

Here's my problem. If I assume you're town, that's not good enough. If you're town I have NO confidence that you'll be caught up and be able to make the right decision if this game goes to LYLO and you're still alive.

Add to that the fact that we have players who MUST be flipped before LYLO - spyrex or empking, and us. You're putting town right on the edge of losing the game here if we don't lynch you today and you don't catch the fuck up. And that's IF you're town and lynching you would otherwise be a mistake.

[morph the cat]

because bulletproof.

[morph the cat]

I wish we had lynched Pasch.

[morph the cat]

I don't. Micc and Maenara were both scummy as balls and DV didn't do jackshit all game. In my limited experience, townDV does shit.

This is true.

I don't remember much about the games I meta'd, but I meta'd DV the last time we played together. There was a game where he was under lynch pressure on day 3 or so, and he stepped the fuck up and scumhunted.

[morph the cat]

Spyrex, if you were dictating today's lynch who would it be?

[morph the cat]

Oh good lord, DV was town. That's been churning me up for a number of days.

I don't want to consider voting anyone till I get some sleep and catch up with thoughts.

Why the hell was it churning you up after AJ's flip?

[morph the cat]

That DV wagon was, as I said yesterday, extremely scum driven. It was crap from start to finish. That's where we should look for scum today. Pecan is scum. MoS' hammer had incredible amounts of equivocation. Fish is fishy as well, but harder to pin down.

Fish, make your case on Garruk.

The case is implicit and it's quite obvious what FormerFish is getting at.

If you and/or pecanpie are town then kindly stop derping.

[morph the cat]

With such a small look for them to pick from though why aren't they having more luck later in the game when they thought they had done so well in the beginning that they pushed as hard as they did for Spy. And regardless of wifom and game theory GRs death as a town rb would be much more benefitial to scum at this point. And if I were going to be blocked, why isn't spyrex and his lover dead?

I'm starting to think that {garruk-spy-???} is our ticket.

[morph the cat]

wat why spy over emp

~reasons~ but it doesn't matter, Emp and Spy are lovers anyways, so they both die.

[morph the cat]

Right the same strongman that didn't get used the nights of the missing kills?

[morph the cat]

I'm not Cabd.

I find it pretty much impossible to scumread those last two posts of yours.

[morph the cat]

VOTE: Spyrex

[morph the cat]

I'm not as sure about the n1k given how the game played out, who the known scum were, etc.

[morph the cat]

I'm going to call that a scumclaim.

[morph the cat]

Well, ffery is willing to give you a free pass nati, but your 180 is still giving me whiplash. We're only scum if scumreading you, but the second ffery townreads you, you're sure we're both
A- town
and
B- the ones who soaked the N1 kill?

[morph the cat]

Well, ffery is willing to give you a free pass nati, but your 180 is still giving me whiplash. We're only scum if scumreading you, but the second ffery townreads you, you're sure we're both
A- town
and
B- the ones who soaked the N1 kill?

Incorrect. I read ffery not by what she actually says, but through tonality/cadence/whatever you want to call it. And she passed, for now. Moreover, you should have enough experience with me to know I can hold two paradoxical views. For example, my literal next post said I pointed towards you being scum IF Empking is scum and Spyrex town. Yes, I'm going to flip back and forth on this and force scum to NK me.

This whole situation is like, pretty much the same as the Nautillus-Garruk dynamic in ASoIaF, with the insinuating factor being there are no fake guilties here.

Who is Nautilus in this scenario? Former Fish? Us?

[morph the cat]

Then I don't understand the scenario. Nautilus was town and convinced you were scum because he evidently forgot or didn't recognize the significance of how his night action would have interacted with yours.

[morph the cat]

Ok. I can see that. I'm holding pretty steady atm. I can see why you're paranoid. We kept trying to kick the wheels off your day 2 spyrex wagon, but given our reads and our role we had a lot of reservations that you had prevented the n1 kill. Still do. Regardless of Spyrex' wagon.

[morph the cat]

I said the exact opposite. I'm not sure how you got there from my post.

[morph the cat]

Oh wait. I see what you're saying.

Yeah. I doubt Garruk pulled off a successful block picking from 19 players on night 1.

If he did I'll apologize and factor it into future games.

[morph the cat]

But, I note that you didn't actually ask me the basis for my read change.

me

[morph the cat]

notsci why are you voting Garruk?

[morph the cat]

notsci why are you voting Garruk?

FF's claim

So you buy 2 town doctors plus a bulletproof over both a scum and town RB?

[morph the cat]

However I may feel about the likelihood of Garruk actually stopping a kill on N1 I have few doubts that his posts on day 2 came from his own conviction that he'd done exactly that.

notsci, think about his leaps to certainty in the OCRemix game.

[morph the cat]

I absolutely want to see what you can figure out.

Please. It's too late for bread yesterday, bread tomorrow. We're on the threshold of LYLO.

[morph the cat]

"Do you want to live forever?"

We are 1-shot.

[morph the cat]

Generic, refresh my memory. Any particular reason you can think if you were blocked the night you tried to kill NS?

You don't think the scum team fear me most out of all of us?


I'm shocked, have you not been reading this game?

stahp

[morph the cat]

@Mod is the data in vote count 7.2 correct, as far as 10 alive, 5 to lynch?

[morph the cat]

EMPKING UNVOTE. NOW.

Before I flip a fucking table.

Your lover asked for more time to post some analysis.

[morph the cat]

Perceptive.

[morph the cat]

That's my fatalism. Give it back.

[morph the cat]

1.) Cat got hit and lost their BP - based on D1, this is pretty possible actually. Cat would have been on the short list I think regardless. @Morph: You do NOT know if your BP was lost, right?

Correct, we don't know if our BP has been used.

Then we get into N3. At this point we know Cat is a BP (I hope I'm remembering right - if not, let me know because thats HUGE in this) and T-Bone's claim was out and suspect. This is where things get interesting because either:

post 2375, day 3.

It doesn't quite fit the facts, but I keep playing with the idea that our outing as x-shot BP, and lying about one shot being used up gave T-Bone the impetus to fake-claim seer with a guilty on nachomollie.

[morph the cat]

We're mulling over and discussing SpyreX' posts from last night and our reads. We'll probably post something substantive later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[morph the cat]

I kinda want to lynch Pasch. Cabd and I talked about the game but didn't get all the way through everything we need to discuss.

The possibility that SpyreX and Empking are town lovers is like the game's depth charge waiting to blow town completely out of the water, and part of me wants to trigger that now when it probably won't mean tomorrow is MYLO.

But, I feel like I've compromised on lynches too many times and I've wanted Pasch lynched since forever.

SpyreX the thing that has preyed on my mind about you is that you never seem to stand up and lead, or even take a strong stand, and I feel like you are the kind of player who will take a stand when you're town.

But, maybe that's because this town has been so divided and lacking in consensus that it's been one suboptimal compromise after another.

UNVOTE

[morph the cat]

I think your stances have been clear mostly, but not pushed. Or you come in early in a game day and take a stance, and then shortly before deadline you come back and sigh because the decision is coming down to something(s) completely different, and you take the compromise you can most live with.

Like I said, a lot of it probably comes down to lack of consensus-building on everyone's part.

[morph the cat]

I tried tooth and nail with Generic more than once.

Waaay back on D1 I said we'd be exactly where we are with him.

But you're absolutely right there's a lot of sighing and gnashing of teeth.

But, lets talk the important talk. Empking.

there's so little to talk about, as far as what he's posted in the game thread. Is your QT discussion more enlightening?

I've gone back through Agent Minnesota's posts a couple times. There's more meat than Empking has posted, but it's pretty dated at this point.

[morph the cat]

And you think he could be town because of balance?

[morph the cat]

Empking, what do you think town should do? And when?

[morph the cat]

Do you want me to answer that before Garruk answers your question?

[morph the cat]

You haven't missed it.

[morph the cat]

generic that's bullshit. We don't need closure. We need a scum lynch.

[morph the cat]

god damn it.

I'd be yelling at my monitor except migraine.

of course you're town.

[morph the cat]

I feel like this is my fault for not answering formerfish last night.

[morph the cat]

Anything new on your reads?

On the gamestate?

I think we're fucked.

[morph the cat]

And our BP was the only protective role in the entire game?

[morph the cat]

Like I said, a lot of it probably comes down to lack of consensus-building on everyone's part.

Whatever town is left tomorrow, work on fixing this.

[morph the cat]

Thanks for leaving me alive for lylo Nati

the fuck does this mean?

[morph the cat]

depends.

I was willing to risk mylo to get pasch dead. This is the worst outcome of this game day I could have imagined.

[morph the cat]

^^ to generic

[morph the cat]

Thanks for leaving me alive for lylo Nati

the fuck does this mean?

1526.

deal with it.

[morph the cat]

depends.

I was willing to risk mylo to get pasch dead. This is the worst outcome of this game day I could have imagined.

Yet you gave me shit over the pasch wagon.

Does anyone else want to to take a swing at my nuts with their boots? Cos I really couldn't give less of a duck about this game at this point so may just come out swinging myself the next day.

The lovers and balance considerations needed to be taken apart and examined. The thing that bothered me about your vote was that it looked like you were giving no thought to the gamestate. Maybe you were. But there was no evidence of it. It looked like you were playing reactively and narcissistically.

[morph the cat]

Morph do you want to go ahead and give me the answer you were waiting on?

Nati has a ton of recent reasons to be paranoid about both Cabd and me. Pinnipedum mini, OCRemix mini. It probably would have alarmed me if he'd gone through Jan-Feb without blocking us at least once.

[morph the cat]

Mollie if you think we're scum then vote us.

I've been busy. So has Cabd.

At first blush I don't like the pecan wagon.

since you had pecan as strong town the "at first blush" is kinda weird!

What's this got to do with lylo?

No idea why you are asking this.

[morph the cat]

Towntowntown: formerfish,

Town: pecanpie.

From there it gets crazy and depends on whether the lovers are both town.

I don't believe Garruk will flip scum. I can't even conceive of a way this game makes sense if they are scum. We have 3 scum left probably. And tomorrow will be 5-3 or 4-3. Probably 5-3.

[morph the cat]

1526

I still don't understand. Trying to post through a migraine sucks.

[morph the cat]

THIS IS PROBABLY LYLO

Lots of talk, no voting while we figure things out.

[morph the cat]

Hey, how about we just lynch the lovers because that's a 2-for-1 chance of hitting scum?

Yesterday was the last day to yolo that lynch.

[morph the cat]

You may be right. I guess the other side of it is that if we take them off the table and mislynch again in the remaining 4-2 or 3-3 (depending on whether there's scum in the lovers) then they shoot the lovers tonight and gg. killing them last night wouldn't end the game and it would reduce a ton of wifom.

Or maybe it's 2 scum left and we have more breathing room than we think. :/

[morph the cat]

Cabd thinks 4 scum with the town prs we know for a fact is a no-go. specifically watcher/doc. So, yeah.

[morph the cat]

A multishot strongman? It's hard to believe they'd wait until night 5 to use a limited strongman.

formerfish living so long is another reason to think there's scum in the lovers.

[morph the cat]

@Morph and NS - if you're that sure now, why the hell didn't you lynch yesterday when it could be afforded?

If this is a serious question, I'm not sure what I would have done yesterday if it hadn't been cut short.

You have mostly come off as town, except that like I said yesterday I feel like you could be more of a town leader than you have been. Empking is a cipher.

For myself, I feel like it's marginally safer to lynch outside the lovers today. But, I've all but given up on this game with Garruk's self-hammer. I feel bad for not defending him harder, but I was hoping to see some scummy pile-on. Not formerfish/garruk.

[morph the cat]

I still think pasch is scum.

I've liked alot of MoS' posting, but I keep coming back to Nacho apparently agreeing with mollie about MoS at the end of day 3 or whenever it was. That's said knowing I put excessive stock in nacho's reads. And mollie's as well but it's hard sometimes disentangling the paranoia stuff from the bedrock. So MoS is in my possibles.

[morph the cat]

I him and haw on MoS but I keep coming back to Porkens. He was relentless with that in such a way it doesn't look like a bus and that led into claimgate which didn't work out so well for scum.

I could get behind pasch/generic. I can't believe that there isn't at least one in that pair.

So you are thinking Pasch, Generic and ?

I don't think we can afford to go for <one of these two is scum>. There's no room for error.

[morph the cat]

What does Church mean?

[morph the cat]

ah. I was thinking "pascal's wager?" /nerd

[morph the cat]

Morph I'm really going to need you to sell em on MoS town if you believe it

Who is in your townbloc. And why?

Town

has

to find town today.

[morph the cat]

Come on

>.>

@morph

Generic popp and you

Order of strength (we all know how I feel regarding the two of you and lylo and I'm already fighting off paranoia of you two)

Very close to the same.

Though Generic is my weakest read of you three. haven't played that much with him. He's close to the unsure pile. :/

I'm going to ignore the paranoia as much as I can because it makes it harder to think. If I have one of those reads wrong, then both lovers could both be town or MoS could be town. I could see MoS town way more than Empking.

So, basically, I guess what I want is to put off that decision (MoS/Lover/maybe Generic) as long as I can.

I'm probably going to just go with Desp's generic read, though.

[morph the cat]

There was an earlier ffery townread from Mollie, during day 1 I think and while Nacho was still undecided. But we were seriously pissed at each other during large chunks of day 2 and basically didn't work together at all.

Nacho's appeal to my townreading them on day 3 and the bogus seer claim shows where his read stood at that point.

And yeah, I talked about the MoS read, which it looked like Nacho maybe shared at the end of day 3.

I still have to come to my own judgement. I've replaced into games where if I went with mollie's earlier reads I would have made the wrong decision. We have more data than they did, and by day 3 they were embroiled in the seer-guilty circus.

[morph the cat]

Shit, I'm wondering if BOTH Paschendale and Empking are scum. If I try to think of how Porkens & T-Bone completely fucked up claimgate while having daytalk, it makes me highly doubt that any of the really experienced players were in on that. That makes morph and SpyreX even less likely than they were before, which leaves Pasch, Empking, pecan, Generic, and notscience. Of those 5, 2-3 would be scum.

Pasch, Empking, and...?

I'm not sure what to make of Generic throwing a hissyfit, as I don't really know his meta. I hesitate to go to the assumption that ragequit = town, because I know it's something I've done as scum before. I don't really have the experience with him to make a call on that. That said, looking at the PoE this way makes me suspicious of pecan again, if only because all the other PRs seem to be checking out. Then again, if pecan is scum, what the fuck was up with his and T-Bone's claims? ...and why would pecan-scum volunteer the information that there is a scum RB?

Ugh, this is a mess. I'm becoming more and more confident that lynching Pasch or Empking will net us a scum today, though. It's just a matter of which one is more likely...I think it's probably both, and there isn't even reason for us to keep SpyreX around anymore, since they'll just block him. Maybe Empking is the right play, then?

How are you defining "really experienced"?

[morph the cat]

ok. Remind me I have more thoughts about VCA.

[morph the cat]

claimgate happened on day 3.

[morph the cat]

morph I'm reserving judgment because I feel like the last few day phases are prime manipulation territory and I want to get to the BP claim.

Heh. Aside from day 2, when I got pissed at mollie and left Cabd to deal with her, most of the posting has been me.

Mollie tells me I manipulate as town and that may be true. But, I'm not the master manipulator in this hydra.

[morph the cat]

Anyway, I'll be afk until late-ish tonight. I may be able to check in by phone once or twice.

Tomorrow I'm flying cross-country, but there should be wifi on the plane. We'll see how long all my device batteries hold out.

[morph the cat]

Morph remind of something very obvious after PA is caught up.

Still need this reminder?

[morph the cat]

Ok thanks...staring at posts too long made me misread the context on that one.

In other news, I *really* want morph to explain their behavior around Pasch this game.

My behavior?

I can explain my mindset and opinions.

Day 1 initial readthrough he looked pretty scummy. nachomollie told me he always looks that way and wanted to give him time to settle into the game. I backed off some.

After claimgate and the next two lynches, Pasch was at the top of my scumpile. Desp felt sure he's town, and even if Desp was wrong, it looked like compromise lynch was the only way forward at that point.

We should have lynched him on day 6.

There were three players in this game whose reads I respect enough to put my own reads on hold, or do a complete rethink if I feel certain they're town: Nacho, Mollie, and Desp. I've put my Pasch read on hold repeatedly. I've rethought it. I've reread his ISO several times, and reread the entire thread a couple of times. I've done VCA. I keep coming back to Pasch.

[morph the cat]

morph, how much knowledge/experience did you have with Hiraki at the time of his lynch?

None. First game with him. Also first game with pacman, pasch, MoS, porkens and several others. I think that's the case for Cabd as well.

[morph the cat]

Today's posting pushes MoS further townward. PoE pushes him scumward, which makes me think something's very, very wrong with one of my town reads.

[morph the cat]

Probably my PoPP read.

PA you've been hedging about us to some extent. What's that about?

[morph the cat]

You seemed pretty sure of your ability to read at least the ffery head in pinnipedum.

[morph the cat]

heh

I always think that as town I play an obvtown game while at the same time feeling I have no idea how to obvtown in ways that are meaningful to most players. I know that for some types of scumhunting I'm extremely ambiguous, but to the extent I know how to obvtown, I did it in this game.

We replaced into this game shortly after 1516 and I was way too drained to deal with a nacho-level interrogation. If ever I was going to fail one as town, it would have been this game. By day 3 he was appealing to my mollie-read as evidence T-Bone's seer-result was fake.

That was both an endorsement of my ability to read mollie (I haven't been wrong about her at MS so far), and an indication of his opinion of my alignment. He's been wrong about me once (xenologue), and he let me slip by once while being quite suspicious of me (the pinnipedum game). I don't expect to pull off another game like either of those until something quantum happens to my scum game.

[morph the cat]

heh

I always think that as town I play an obvtown game while at the same time feeling I have no idea how to obvtown in ways that are meaningful to most players. I know that for some types of scumhunting I'm extremely ambiguous, but to the extent I know how to obvtown, I did it in this game.

We replaced into this game shortly after 1516 and I was way too drained to deal with a nacho-level interrogation. If ever I was going to fail one as town, it would have been this game. By day 3 he was appealing to my mollie-read as evidence T-Bone's seer-result was fake.

That was both an endorsement of my ability to read mollie (I haven't been wrong about her at MS so far), and an indication of his opinion of my alignment. He's been wrong about me once (xenologue), and he let me slip by once while being quite suspicious of me (the pinnipedum game). I don't expect to pull off another game like either of those until something quantum happens to my scum game.

Obvious solution is obvious: resurrect Nacho, let him tell us we're both town, profit.

Have you lied about your read on town-mollie as scum in the past?

I "townread" her in the one game we've played where I was scum at MS. Xenoblade..

What do you think went off-kilter in the game as a whole after the Porkens--T-Bone lynches?

I think there were some extremely strong and extremely diverse ideas about who the remaining scum were among the confirmed/near-confirmed town. And there were some players who didn't really have strong opinions. It forced some compromise lynches. In particular, Desp was certain popp was scum and pasch wasn't. FormerFish was of the opposite opinion.

Peng your job is to smack me upside the head if ffery starts acting like she did in 1526 and I don't realize it.

I can see popp-scum.

I kinda want empking blood more than anyone else today tbh.

...I'll get right on that, notscience.

The thing about Empking is that if he's scum (and so lynching him doesn't end the game) we lose access to SpyreX as well. As much as having to deal with the linked deaths is annoying, if we can lynch scum elsewhere today it would be nice to have SpyreX's input for follow-up purposes.

Agree re waiting at least one more day to sort the lovers. Though I'll be pretty surprised at this point if empking flips town.

[morph the cat]

Empking, who else do you think are scum?

[morph the cat]

So you think pasch and pecan have been double-bussing all game?

[morph the cat]

So you think pasch and pecan have been double-bussing all game?

Why is this the question you asked Empking? Why not ask him why he thinks Pasch & Generic/Penguin are buddies?

Both questions need asking. Conversational mode is a thing.

Pasch/Generic buddy is a more complicated question to process. Pasch and Pecan have been sniping at each other since forever. It's been a constant feature of every gameday since Day 2. Maybe day 1.

[morph the cat]

D2.

[morph the cat]

I am utterly clueless as to why one question vs the other is of concern.

[morph the cat]

Which question I focused on is driven by my thoughts about who could be scum partners with whom. I think I'm on record with most of that. There are a couple of possibilities that I have in an "I don't even want to think about it" locked box in my brain. At some point if the game is still going on and I'm still alive I'll have to unlock that box and unleash the paranoia. Not at this point.

My "don't even want to think about it" possibilities aren't as unthinkable to other players from what I've seen, anyway.

[morph the cat]

Revisiting this post.

...yeah, and that went oh-so-well. I'm trying not to reach that level of hubris again.

You were right about me, though.

Not to mention that reading along with 1526 made me pretty sure that was an aberration rather than some mad new skill.

Nati had me right in that game. How do you feel about his read of me in this game?

I was right in 1516 for all the good it did anyone IIRC, but I had some info from the mason QT left by Desperado and mollie to work from. Toss in that I didn't always know who was making which posts here (yes I know you said fferyllt-head has been doing most of the posting, still get confused sometimes) and I'm just not comfortable writing you off as town right now. Doesn't mean I don't want to work with you or anything, just that I have reservations.

How do you plan to get enough data to sort us if you don't have enough now?

[morph the cat]

He's at L-2 I think.

I almost voted him a little while ago. Both he and POPP have been comparatively quiet this game day.

[morph the cat]

VOTE: Pasch

me.

VOTE: Pasch

[morph the cat]

Stuff

I hear you were looking for me and I missed it?

[morph the cat]

Those are some boring and not at all risque questions. Fiiiiiine.

Leaning town but with reservations that ~not letting you reverse engineeer~ may be an issue with my read. FWIW generic (and you pretty much) now have to fall under that one law Beli always goes on about. You pretty much have to be town or the game is already over.

[morph the cat]

pieceofpecanpie is semi-V/LA due to access issues.

[morph the cat]

sigh.

[morph the cat]

I was so wrong that there was no sort of reset that could have corrected everything.

[morph the cat]

Yeah there were several bad compromise lynches.

I have some takeaways to work on. Most of them relate to early reads. I felt under a lot of pressure about my first reads list after replacing in, and I think it was an odd combo of not owning some of them and being overly attached to others that led to a whole string of bad decisions as the game progressed.

Thanks Matias and Quadz! The game flavor was a lot of fun.

[morph the cat]

Oh wait. I see what you're saying.

Yeah. I doubt Garruk pulled off a successful block picking from 19 players on night 1.

If he did I'll apologize and factor it into future games

.

this btw is a thing