Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Mafia - Game Over

[Belisarius]

VOTE: No Lynch because fuck RVS.

[Belisarius]

So you're saying I should just hop on mastin because a case has been posted?

Nope. I want to see more and then I'll make up my own mind about where my vote should be. I don't vote so frivolously.

[Belisarius]

no lynch is like the worst idea ever.

No, strawberry fried rice in carbonara sauce is the worst idea ever. No lynch is just a garden variety bad idea.

[Belisarius]

belisarius is an A+ target btw 4 ne aspiring vigs/sks out there hopin to scoop up on some towncred.

kiss kiss

[Belisarius]

no lynch is like the worst idea ever. i'd prefer a possibility of killing scum. so lets try hard to find them. but even if someone dies who isn't scum as long as its not a PR It helps town up the odds.

but even if someone dies who isn't scum as long as its not a PR It helps town up the odds.

but even if someone dies who isn't scum It helps town up the odds.

but even if someone dies who isn't scum It helps

if someone dies who isn't scum It helps

It helps

This is the shittest reason for voting someone I've ever read.

VOTE: waynegg

[Belisarius]

Dont worry, Beli, you've only seen the beginning of Waynegg's insane troll logic.

I've played with waynegg before, and I don't think it's pointless to respond to him.

Belisarius voting to no-lynch in the RVS is a good way to avoid responsibility for his vote, which I've seen scum do in a recent game I played. In addition, I don't like that he votes waynegg for poor reasoning - it seems like on the surface scumhunting and not legitimate.

Vote: Belisarius

^Town

[Belisarius]

let's assume 5/21 mafia. then if we get 3 random people, the chance of all of them being town is (16/21) * (15/20) * (14/19) ~ 42.11%, meaning there's more than a 50% chance one out of a random group of 3 people is scum.

Quoth Thoreau, "Simplify, simplify"

The formula I've been seeing in use for determining number of scum in a nonmultiball game is scumCount = (int)(floor(playerCount / 4)), which comes to the same assumption of 5 scum, but with the simpler math, it means that one out of every

four

players is scum; a bloc of three in isolation means nothing.

If you want to try to use statistics to scumhunt, name your fourth. But really, don't use statistics to scumhunt, because that analysis means precisely bugger if this is multiball or there's a SK.

Flavour-wise, either multiball (Federation/Orb/Three Ships, ZAFT/PLANT, Blue Cosmos) or SK (Rau Le Creuset) makes sense, and if either of those are in play, then 5/21 scum is a shit assumption to make.

I think it's pretty likely this is multifaction based on my role PM.

[Belisarius]

I think it's pretty likely this is multifaction based on my role PM

Disregard this, it was a reading fail on my part.

In other news, Kanye is town.

[Belisarius]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: pieguyn

I dinnae like yer attempt to distance yerself from yer shit logic once it's conclusive proven to be shit

[Belisarius]

Sakura because I wasn't completely convinced by her suicide.

Who put the bees in the what now?

I just ISO'd her. There's nothing like that there. It's only a 15 page game, it's not like I'd miss that.

Also not seeing the case on DV.

Am I even reading the same game as the rest of you? I do not think that I am.

[Belisarius]

Sakura, when you get done with your convo with Peregrine, can you please attack me for saying I wouldn't be inclined to wagon you, and then promptly wagonning you? Like... What the fuck's with that, huh?

So you're saying you're being scummy. What do we do with people who are being scummy?

[Belisarius]

No, I asked Sakura why she didn't challenge my inconsistency.

...by pointing out said inconsistency.

Translation : "Hey guys look at me I'm reaction testing by acting scummy and it's working look look look check out how protown I'm being!"

Because frankly, it's perfectly logical to suppose SH -- and anyone else for that matter -- didn't notice. It's a pretty subtle inconsistency.

Your reaction reminds me of me in Open 480.

[Belisarius]

Great, and pretty sure I wasn't in that game.

Yeah okay maybe it was a shitty reaction test.

Let me ask you - are you trying to sort me or are you trying to lynch me?

You weren't in that game. But you're behaving in a manner consistent with the scum thought process I had during Open 480. When I see somebody thinking like scum-me, my first thought sure as hell isn't "Well, there's obvtown."

As for sort vs. lynch, I haven't decided yet.

[Belisarius]

I'm still waiting on Beli to interact here, the game's pretty much stalled for me until that happens.

I'm not seeing anything in your ISO worth reacting to since our last tete-a-tete, and I'm trying to work out who to voke next, so if you want to dance, take your best shot now.

[Belisarius]

How are you intending to identify scum?

You don't

really

expect me to explain to the scum exactly how to beat me, right?

Right?

Are you expecting everyone else to do the work for you?

Petulance noted and filed for future reference.

How is anyone in the game supposed to get a read on you?

I have no idea why the fuck anyone ever reads me the way they do in almost any game. I'm sure they'll keep on doing it, though.

Why shouldn't you be lynched aside from the fact you've interacted with virtually nobody up to this point?

I have no intention of trying to dodge a lynch. As far as I'm concerned, it's like turning on the bathroom light to make the sun come up. I'm just naturally transparent.

Total completed games played : 20, over a period of just under a year
Total times mislynched : 1
Total times I've avoided a lynch on purpose, by force of effort : 0

No, I think I'll just sit back and let nature take its course with regards to defence.

Do you have any reads yet?

Not enough townreads to make me happy. Actually, not

any

non-gut townreads. My scumreads are pie, you, and wayne, which should be immediately apparent from even skimming my ISO. Hell, you could skim my ISO while drunk, riding a unicycle, and attempting to fend off attacks from pissed-off bees and

still

get that much.

[Belisarius]

No, I had hoped for a mere second for a glimpse into your perfect lurkaderp town-win plan.
"Right"

what?

if you're expecting me to agree with you just because you're attempting to come off as aggressive, you've got no idea of how I function and are directly avoiding addressing it.

No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die.

I can't think of a more useless statement you could have made, and combined with the above - your answer is effectively that you either don't have a plan or if you do, nobody but you needs to know about it.

Is your "case" on me really so weak you need to put words in my mouth?

You're an annoying addition to the lynch-pool until either myself or those I trust can give a read on you, and with a

reason

for the read.
Are you saying in most of your games you get townread "Because Beli"? I doubt it.

I get townread for reasons I neither expect nor understand. That's not saying there aren't any reasons, it's saying I don't grok the reasons and I'm not willing to waste my time struggling for something that just happens by itself.

Do you have any idea then why people are voting you? It just could be because you're coming across as trying to dodge a lynch, no?

People are voting me because they're either wrong or scum. If I discern which is which, I'll vote that way. Until then, to hell with it.

This does not pass for content. I don't have you pegged as a naturally aggressive or stubborn.
I'm reading you as

FAKE

.

Aww, muffin.

I expect you to be able to self-narrate and give a summary of your major reads any time anyone asks you to reiterate. Going back over your ISO would be something I'd do to validate that you're not just making shit up on the fly.

If you're not willing to go over my ISO -- especially since your main argument is "lol u don't post enough," meaning it's a short -- that just shows you don't actually care, because you already know my alignment.

That makes you a higher priority target than pie.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: talah

What do you think of Empking, specifically? His ISO should be pretty easy for you to backfill on.

Short, alignment neutral, not looking like a juicy voke target this game.

[Belisarius]

...and your explanation of why?

Why I don't care what you think I expect

you

to think? I guess it's because I have more pressing concerns, such as what to have for breakfast this morning.

Would you like to explain to me how waynegg and I are both scum? Have we been play-acting, or is this related to your multiball "townslip" earlier?

Did I say both anywhere?

Nope.

You're both scumreads, that doesn't mean I've decided here and now that you're

both

scum, or scum together. You keep asking me to defend stances I haven't taken. That's telling.

Speaking of which:

This game? Are you saying that despite having *no* read on Empking, you won't be voting him at all, ever?

No, I am not saying that. Where did I say that? Where did I say anything even remotely similar to that?

@Jiffy : Sod that, my vote's in the right place, and this argument is the first time I've had fun this game.

[Belisarius]

Oh, melenkurion abatha

Emphasis mine.
I would think you'd try to resolve the logical inconsistency of "both" of us being scumreads and coming to some sort of conclusion.

I'm giving serious consideration to the possibility of multiball. In what universe would I think one of you has to be town because I don't necessarily see you as scum together?

This game? Are you saying that despite having *no* read on Empking, you won't be voting him at all, ever?

No, I am not saying that. Where did I say that? Where did I say anything even remotely similar to that?

Why, right here, what did you forget your scumslip already?

What do you think of Empking, specifically? His ISO should be pretty easy for you to backfill on.

Short, alignment neutral, not looking like a juicy voke target this game.

1) His ISO is short and alignment neutral
2) He's not looking like a juicy vote target this game

Please clarify, seeing you don't like me telling you how I'm reading things.

"Voke" was not a typo. It is slang for "provoke."

@Jiffy : Sod that, my vote's in the right place, and this argument is the first time I've had fun this game.

Is it because now you've got something to do?
It's because now you've got something to do, isn't it?
Nice and safe in the 'argue with talah and do nothing else' zone.

And yet more petulance. I haven't seen you so petulant as town.

[Belisarius]

Tone's forced, content's not. Am not faking.

This alone makes me want to take another run at using McClish...Perhaps if I try less hard to be "rigorous" and omit borderline tells...

Omitting the "I" in a statement shows a desire on the speaker's behalf to distance themselves from the lie they are telling.

Hmmm. 30 pages in, could probably bang it out in 3-4 hours. I should have time for that on Saturday. You've piqued my interest.

[Belisarius]

OK, as promised, I've got a start on going over ISO's using McClish's methodology; not as promised, though, I'm going to be doing it in chunks so I don't get burned out halfway through and miss important shit, so for now you get the playerlist up to AGar in the order they appear in the opening post and then smurf you guys I'm playing FFXIV for the rest of the day. Some of what I've dug up here has nothing to do with the McClish methodology and it will be labelled as such.

DrDolittle:
#90 : Words, words, words. With such an ability to use so many words without saying anything, the good Doctor would fit in perfectly in Ottawa.
#188 : (Not McClish) Wherefore the assumption that I'm ZAFT specifically? I could understand calling me scum, but ZAFT? Furthermore, read the opening flavour. Miguel is ZAFT and "flipped" town. I don't know about anyone else, but my role PM doesn't even say if I'm a Coordinator or a Natural, which leads me to believe that genetics is irrelevant to alignment. (For the record, I know from flavour familiarity that I'm a Natural and ergo not ZAFT. I wanted to be ZAFT, but I didn't get what I wanted.)
#281 : Smokescreening; Doc is aware that the majority of this post is irrelevant, as evinced by the statment "that is irrelevant," but left it in anyways. Also seeing contraction avoidance in this post, which is a hallmark of the dishonest.
#678 : "a lot of other players"; The clinical term for this is "weasel words"
#752 : "Actually"

kanye: Running McClish on kanye's ISO has caused me to do a complete 180 on my read on him. Where reading his posts in context gave me an impression that he was trying to avoid taking responsibility for his reads, focusing on his posts closer show that's not true; in fact, when I run through my list of things McClish says to watch out for, kanye's doing

exactly the opposite

consistently. I like his use of diction, since he syntactically places himself close to his positions. On the non-McClish front, I'm liking his lack of fear with regards to attacking strong players, and I'm liking his "eat shit and die" attitude. Basically, unless kanye outright claims scum or someone gets a cop guilty on him, there's no way in fuck I'm ever voting for him.

waynegg:
#44 : Omitting the "I"; for that matter, elsewhere in his ISO, I notice him consistently phrasing things so that he doesn't have to talk about himself.
#156 : Why the passive voice?
#211 : To be specific, this is obfuscative language.
#242 : Sentence fragments.
#409 : "I'm pretty sure you know you didn't say what you may have been trying to convey right there..." -- obfuscative language
#613 : More obfuscative language

pieguy: This is kanye all over again; I expected to find a goldmine of McClish tells, instead I find fuck all and reverse-tells (syntactic proximity, use of strong adjectives).
(Not McClish) : I still don't like his jump on to Empking for no goddamn reason.

AGar: Clean as a whistle, sharp as a thistle, best in all Westminster; I even like his opposition to shitwagons in spite of the combination of a) one of them was on me, and b) I am pretty paranoid about possible buddying. I may sheep him depending on what I turn up on Levi tomorrow.

[Belisarius]

Can we get some tl;dr's up in here?

I'm ISOing people using methodology taught by US Marshal Mark McClish.

I've done it before and it didn't turn out well, so I was hesitant to use it for a while, but I'm pretty sure it failed because my application of the methodology was faulty, as opposed to the methodology itself which is still in use by federal police in the US and Canada. I think I know how I failed (reaching too much for tells) and that means I can fix it.

@beli ~ I think you should have more confirmation bias.

>> Completely reverses 2 reads
>> is confbias'd.

Better cast your net again, you fished up a pile of shit.

[Belisarius]

PV: Seems excessively polite. Not feeling any heat from his vote on me, but I did in La Isla, where it seemed to have some force behind it.

Levi: #9: Rule of Three (McClish's Rule of Three differs from mafiascum's; it states, in short, that when a liar has to make up a number, three is by far the most common one used. There's a whole freakin' chapter on it in one of his books)
#59 : Never
#64: rule of 3 again
#189: "I think we can agree" is conciliatory language which is entirely unwarranted in this context
#237: (Not McClish) "Either the anger is completely fake and he's scum using it to push a wagon or its truely genuine and its insanely town." -- I seriously can't see town

ever

posting that.
#293: DOUBLE WHAMMY: "In my opinion pretty much anyone can die day 1 and I wouldn't really care." passive voice

and

distancing his personal pronoun from the subject!
#238: "barely done much." is really obfuscative and unnatural language
#554 : Omitting the I.
#557 : Actually-tell and obfuscative, unnatural use of language in one shot with "Actually that's kind of complicated at the moment."
As of #864, noticing a

ridiculous

amount of text-smilies. Levi is nervous.
#887 : Actually-tell and obfuscative language in "well, I feel most my scum reads actually lie within my nulls. =P "

Svenskt:
#676: (Not McClish) shows worry about how he's being read right out of the gate.
#702: Reverse-tell - language shows close positioning between the personal pronoun and the subject, which occurs more frequently in honest statements.
#706: (Not McClish) Why me = fry me. Which is a weak as fuck read, but it's there.
#710: Contraction avoidance
#865-6: (Not McClish) I AM THE POWER! FEAR ME! FOR NOW I COME TO DESTROY YOU ALL! *fucks off for a week*
#890: Omitting the I

Empking:
#42: Sentence fragment
#129-184: Reverse-tell: close positioning between personal pronoun and subject
#287: Overly polite language
#879: DOUBLE WHAMMY: "However it certainly annoys." Passive voice and omission of the personal pronoun
#931: (Not McClish) "Maj makes good points" reads to me as "Don't hold me responsible for this position when pie flips town."

Majiffy:
#270: (Not McClish) Why me = fry me
...annnd that's all I've got. Either I've already got analysis burnout (and I haven't finished

one

pot of coffee yet so I doubt it's that) or Jiffy is town as fuck.

Short break, posting this now but I'll do the rest before I get on with the rest of my day.

@Jiffy: You know, I

was

going to answer your tl;dr request but then I realised that there's absolutely no reason that town would ever want to know my reads without knowing the reasoning behind that, so fuck that.

Nobody else summarise these analyses either.

5 down, 10 more to go. The difference between yesterday and today, though, is that this is the

only

game where I'm doing this fucking drudge work, so I'm pretty sure I can make it all the way through.

[Belisarius]

Pyro:
#423: Super
#625: (Not McClish) "My brain isn't quite here tight now but

I'm oretty sure that we have beli as town now

, but I need to check back. I still don't like deas but he does so."; at the time this post was made, their vote was on me.
And once again, that's all I can find. Verdict: Town

Sakura Hana:
#16: Rule of Three
#37: Passive voice
#96: Omitting the personal pronoun
#371: Reverse-tell: "I can't stand this any longer, somebody pay attention to me!"; Someone wanting to blend in is not likely to do this.
#399: Super
#811: My god she's saying "Just saying" a lot.


NachoKoopa:
#194: "I probably wasn't entirely serious." -- What is this shit?
#600: "It feels like" is more wishy-washy language than I'd expect to see from Nacho; I've never met the other head of this hydra, though. Also, "actually"
#612: "Seems to be"; wishy-washy II: The Revenge

DeasVail:
#28: "kind of" = wishy-washy
#101: "Particularly likely," "not really feeling it" are also wishy-washy
#112: Yes, I did see the "less likely," but in context, I'm fine with it. That's the kind of false-tell that I think fucked me up when I tried to use this method before
#162: "it's become a concerning trend for me lately" -- passive voice
#334: (Not McClish) Reverse-tell -- "I like buddying/saying what I think when it's something nice to say, and I'm not going to stop just because some people seem to think it's a scumtell. " Translate that into terminology that would find more favour on this site and you'll come up with "I'll do what I want because fuck you."
#459: "but she just feels flat to me and I don't get the impression that she's actually scumhunting." is incredibly wishy-washy. I'm starting to think DV's wishy-washiness is a playstyle-tell and should be disregarded, so I'm not going to include it in this list anymore

Matias:
#68: (Not McClish) "By the way, that was a weird statement." bugs me, but I can't put my finger on it due to my brain being an asshole
#573: Overly polite

Whew, last block of 5. This method is such a huge pain in the ass. And the worst part is, now that I've invested this much into it, I pretty much have to keep it up from the Dead QT even after I'm killed, like I did in Open 506.

AA9: Bugger all to go on.

talah:
#127: "virtually", "pretty much"
#215: "I'm being perfectly honest" -- then why do you have to point it out?
#377: (Not McClish, but can't leave this out): "Hey look how scummy I'm being" is a giant red flag that's on fire surrounded by a thousand middle fingers that are also made out of fire. And the red flag has a picture of fire on it.
#389: "We? Do you mean good mafia players? Good scumhunters? Yourself notionally as part of one of these groups? Yourself by extension onto the universe of how you think all Mafia players should act?
People? Me? Your grouping of all people who act scummily according to you? People who act in the same way as I am acting?
Scummy? The way I acted in this particular sequence? The assertion you are making?" -- Escalation into anger, ad hom.
#398: "You do realise I literally and provably haven't rolled scum before. I would have to be a fucking psychopath to be playing like I am as first time scum, wouldn't I?" -- This is a non-sequitur, as I -- "literally and provably" -- played exactly like this the second time I rolled scum (Open 480), which was the first time I was scum when

not

replacing into an already heavily-suspected scumslot late in the game.
#533: "Going back over your ISO would be something I'd do to validate that you're not just making shit up on the fly." -- Passive voice
talah gets better in the second ~500 posts in the game though.

Nati:
#95: Omitting the I in the last sentence.
#286: Again, omitting the personal pronoun all post long this time
--huge jump
#662: Contraction avoidance

mastin:
#29: Omitting the personal pronoun
#35: Omitting the personal pronoun
#39: Omitting the personal pronoun
#255: I'm starting to sound like a broken record here: Omitting the personal pronoun
#ALL: You know what, fuck it, pretend I just listed the post numbers of every one of mastin's posts and pasted "Omitting the personal pronoun" beside each and every one of them. That's the only McClish-tell he's committed in his ISO.

Kalimar:
Nothing. Absolutely nothing. There's only 10 posts in his ISO, but they're not one-liners and he's committed exactly zero of the things McClish says to watch out for. Why are people looking at Kalimar as a prospective lynch? I don't get it.

Finally done, and since it took 5 1/2 hours not counting what I put in yesterday, I don't fucking want to hear anyone say I haven't done anything this game.

[Belisarius]

@beli, you have obviously not played with me before. =P I use smilies ridiculously often. =P like after every sentence for the most part. =P you may think smilies are scummy or make me look nervous but i ain't. =P

Correct; I have no baseline or I might have voted you already.

Beli, have you seen me play elsewhere?

Ongoing game rule.

[Belisarius]

why didn't post 312 detonate your frontal lobe

Context; you look at intent, not just form. Statement Analysis is not just an excuse to be a grammar nazi. The sentence fragment in that post -- along with the pronoun omission -- forms a complete thought with the preceding sentence.

I totally didn't miss it entirely.

Beli who do you wanna lynch today

I'm still good with talah or waynegg.

[Belisarius]

And Beli I was talking about your law of threes in post 312.

Again:


The Rule of Three is that dishonest people trend towards using the number three when they're making up numbers, not "you should think HOLY FUCK SCUM" every time someone uses the number three.

All of the 3s in 312 are copy/pasted from vote counts. These are not numbers that could be made up.

oh and I'm Tolle Koenig, my mobile suit has no abilities. =/

Since when is Tolle a mobile suit pilot?

Should Levi flip scum, we can safely assume his entire scumteam have mobile suits.

[Belisarius]

Why would you assume everybody has a mobile suit?

Do you know the difference between a mobile suit and a mobile armour?

I'm not prepared to dismiss the notion of sans-ability mobile suits, but I can't imagine why they'd be included, but I don't see enough actual mobile suit pilots in the series to fill the playerlist without filling it with mooks while major characters get ignored.

[Belisarius]

Dammit Nati, too soon.

[Belisarius]

we should assume everyone has mobile suits

I said I assumed everyone had a ability not necessarily a suit.

*brain explodes*

YOU SEE?

FUCK YOU, NATIRASHA

FUCK YOU

FUCK YOU

FUCK YOU

OH AND ONE OTHER THING

CAN YOU GUESS WHAT IT IS?

[Belisarius]

THE OTHER THING IS FUCK YOU.

I wanted to see where that conversation went. I wanted to see what other players said

without

any pilots knowing if there were non-pilots. NOT GONNA HAPPEN NOW IS IT?

[Belisarius]

The old janitor non pilot claim earlier today kinda squashed that before you even asked it belly.

Levi's claim pretty much forces him to take the position that non-mobile suit pilots in the series can be mobile suit pilots in this game, because Tolle is not a mobile suit pilot.

[Belisarius]

all the scum are off my wagon...

Day 1 - Vote Count #33

waynegg (0)

-

Who put the bees in the what now?

[Belisarius]

DrDo, Pere, Mastin, Matias, Kanye, Pyro, Beli, AA9, Kalimar

If your name is above, you need to vote one of the following;
Majiffy, Agar, Pieguyn

Smart money is on Piescum.

Nope, all 3 of those are mislynches.

If the majority of the town wants to mislynch so be it, but you can do it without my vote.

Beli, continuing on, if you're going to be attempting written analysis and then include your own interpretation of the psychology behind it, then it's absolutely valid to include the psychology which would cause a player to pick out three wagons with three players on them, and then reinforce the same thinking by pressing only three scumreads.

#312 was simply a list of every wagon with more than one vote that was

not on himself

. The fact that there were three such wagons, or that each had three votes on them, or that the first digit in the post number was a three

does not make that qualify for the Rule of 3

.

Seriously, it was

precisely

bullshit overreaching like that that made this method fail in Open 506 and Newbie 1375

[Belisarius]

Yes, and I'm not seeing scum in it on either side.

Look, I wanted my first take on pie to be right when I looked at him in depth and was forced to conclude that I was wrong. It's time for you to do the same thing and get off that shitwagon.

I'm pretty ambivalent about the pressure on levi, DV and AA9 (although I don't understand why people want those last two), but absolutely opposed to a pie lynch.

[Belisarius]

EBWOP: I need to stop ignoring post previews. That was @Jiffy's question about whether anyone had read the Jiffy/Pie interaction.

[Belisarius]

VOTE: nacho
^ for example

You don't seriously think you're getting Nacho today, do you?

[Belisarius]

I'm not getting the lynch I want either

[Belisarius]

The guy who's playing the way I did in my first non-replacement scumgame.

I haven't exactly been making it a secret.

[Belisarius]

Refresh my memory.

talah.

TBF, I don't blame anyone not-me for refusing to vote a player for playing like scumBeli. That dude's balls to the wall awesome.

[Belisarius]

iof you want to talk about vig targets that are strong for town despite almost certainly hitting town, you are scum.

FTFY.

[Belisarius]

Dinnae let it get ta ye, lass.

I fucked up (5p) lylo as a cop with a guilty. Top that.

[Belisarius]

ima ctually pretty happy w. waynes posting and dont get what the problem w. him is.

OK, so sober-me has you as town right now but drunk-me read that and said KILL KILL KILL, so would'st thou kindly explain in what firked-up universe Wayne is town?

I mean, his bargaining attemp with me alone is dirty as fuck. Town doesn't respect me worth shit. Who town would give a damn about earning my vote?

[Belisarius]

What if we leave Levi and Beli out and put kayne in the pool?

Not a snowball's chance in hell.

Lynch me before Kanye.

[Belisarius]

In what galaxy?

Not this one.

[Belisarius]

I never said if my suit has abilities or not, im just saying that i share a neighborhood with Levi.

*brain explodes*

So you're claiming that you have a suit?

At least Tolle piloted a mobile armour.

I despair of getting through to anyone on that score when we have players using "gundam" and "mobile suit" interchangeably, though.

[Belisarius]

What, that people are using "gundam" and "mobile suit" interchangeably, or the obvious fakeclaims levi and SH have spewed?

pedit: above is @wayne

[Belisarius]

you did a possible flavor post where you gave some characters and what they might be. You said that Rau Le Creuset could be a serial killer. Could you see him as anything else?

Rau's Gundam Wikia Page

I haven't actually read that page, though, so more from memory:
-Le Creuset is a lone-wolf type who just wants to kill everyone because...uh, reasons, the perfect archetype for a serial killer. He plays the Patrick Zala faction against the Blue Cosmos to try to keep the PLANT/Earth war going.
-He is a Coordinator
-He's nominally aligned with ZAFT
-He's a clone of Mwu La Flaga's father

We know that the middle 2 are probably not germane to alignment due to opening flavour (Miguel flipped town, and he's a ZAFT-aligned coordinator)
Le Creuset/La Flaga would make a more logical Mason/Neigbour pairing than Tolle and Miri due to the genetic matching.
If flavour

is

relevant to alignment, town roles are most likely drawn from those aligned with the Three Ships Navy or ORB as of the end of the series. I can easily see nominally ZAFT or OMNI characters being town, even if they aren't officially listed as Three Ships/ORB, though, as long as they're not hardline anti-Coordinator or anti-Natural. I'd have a hard time seeing Athrun or Lacus as scum. Scum roles are most likely to come from the (Patrick) Zala Faction and Blue Cosmos.

[Belisarius]

Holy shit the activity.

Point form:
*Pretty sure Wake is town, and even surer I know which character he is. That character's aligned with the Three Ships Navy in-series.
*I think at this point identifying Wake's character claim would do no good and may do harm, but I'm going to Evernote who I think he is in case I forget
*Pie's claim is too perfect to be a lie or fakeclaim.
*Pie's claim makes me look like Mu La Flaga. I am not Mu La Flaga.
*I still don't understand why so many people want AA9 dead.
*The DrD wagon, conversely, pleases me.

VOTE: DrDolittle

[Belisarius]

You mean the flavor that was provided earlier in the thread?

Yeah -- by me. I'm not exactly a player that's swimming in respect this game. The smart thing for fakeclaiming scum would be to disregard and/or mock me.

Furthermore, I didn't provide all of that detail and all of it is right.

[Belisarius]

Who the fuck would kill AA9?

Clearly not a normal D1 townread.

[Belisarius]

Er, crap, gotta stop drunkposting as town.

Clearly Pie killed AA9, and the scum kill was blocked.

[Belisarius]

At this point all of the D2 discussion is "Yuh-uh"ing and "Nuh-uh"ing about lynching pie and abso-fucking-lutely nothing is happening that might catch scum instead.

This distraction from scumhunting needs to be eliminated.

VOTE: pie

[Belisarius]

SO MANY PAGES

+1

I also cannot see scum having "obvious" pairings like that as a matter of balances.

I can see "Not all of the scum can't be involved in flavour pairings," but where do you get "NO scum can be involved in flavour pairings?"

By that logic, levi must be town because Sakura is.

But, because we have that connection, I think it makes sense that we're just each other's polar opposites, which leads me to believe he is a serial killer and is not group scum.

Rau doesn't make sense as groupscum flavourwise full stop.

[Belisarius]

Where's the associative tell between Wake's claim and DV's flip?

Waldfeld is a Coordinator; the Blue Cosmos's raison d'etre is

kill all Coordinators

.

[Belisarius]

i only have your word on that 1

Was this addressed to me? Because you have more than just my word on it. You have

the internet

.

P-EDIT: @ Nati: Yes, the Zala Faction within PLANT are Coordinators who want to kill all of the Naturals. I object to this strenuously because I'm a Natural.

[Belisarius]

EBWOP: The Patrick Zala faction, that is. There is one Zala who would fit town flavour.

[Belisarius]

i dont think natural vs coordinator has any bearing on alignment

Not on

town-

alignment, no -- we already have both Naturals and Coordinators amongst those who have flipped town. The Blue Cosmos faction is guaranteed Natural-only, though, just as a hypothetical Patrick Zala Faction would be required to be Coordinator-only.

[Belisarius]

I saw three claims for coordinators. Are those all of them, or do we have more? And is there any natural claims?

I claimed Natural, but I'm not giving out my name, role, or whether or not I pilot a mobile suit.

[Belisarius]

fix pls. with a wake vote.

I'm not voting Wake.

I'm fine with Pie or Levi.

VOTE: Pie

[Belisarius]

Why won't you vote Wake?

I don't think he's scum.

I don't see scum motivation in pissing people off by banging on about the SK continuously

and then continuing to do so

after it becomes apparent people want to lynch him for that behavior.

I can see trying to create a diversion, but Wake's carried it further than it makes sense for scum to.

Also, his claim is logical -- I wouldn't make a SEED game without including Waltfeld. This means next to nothing due to the possibility of mod-supplied fakeclaims, but on the other hand I don't think that someone who doesn't even know what a Coordinator is would have the flavour knowledge necessary to pick Waltfeld out of a list of fakeclaims unless they're

all

that good.

[Belisarius]

nothing seems to get done as long as the SK is around.

Read this in bold caps, everyone voting Waltfeld, the freaking XO of Meteor.

Wayne, I liked your post about DV's reads. Fuck it. Haters gonna hate.

[Belisarius]

Bet you five bucks Kdub doesn't get page 201 pagetop and post 5000.

Ha ha fuck you

[Belisarius]

...so Talah, like Titus, continues to shift back and forth.

Guys, are you really willing to lynch uncountered Nonconsecutive Tracker

over confScum

?

Who the fuck is going to counterclaim that role?

I mean, yeah lynch confscum, but uncc'd means nothing with such a nonstandard role.

Pedit: @talah I'm the one who cussed at you, not Wake

[Belisarius]

Belisarius, what do you make of these votes on me? What reasons do you think they have, that pertain to me being Scum?

I think you're town. How the Christ would I have any insight into the thought processes of the people on your wagon?

[Belisarius]

I'm giving you a chance to appear like a helpful Townie, Belisarius

I don't shiv a git what I look like; as I said before, that self-manages just fine without me wasting any sweat over it. I definitely don't need your charity "chance."

You think I'm scum? Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!

[Belisarius]

Have you forgotten his rubbish claim? Let me remind you: VT with a mobile suit. A mobile suit that does fuck all. We have PRs who don't pilot suits, so why, from a design standpoint, would the mod include a powerless suit? He also hasn't claimed what kind of suit he supposedly pilots, and his claimed character is canonically not a mobile suit pilot. His character was

killed

by Athrun, and he couldn't do fuck all about it because Athrun had a suit and Kuzzey didn't.

[Belisarius]

Yeah I was going to say that Levi hadn't claimed a character yet

999

Not sure why I was thinking Kuzzey instead of Tolle, especially since Tolle is the one Athrun killed. I blame the 3 martinis.

[Belisarius]

I don't know who thig magical "we" is but I haven't seen any flipped PR without a suit...

Then I guess you weren't there when I cussed out Nati for giving that bit away.

You should have been, it was funny.

[Belisarius]

The risk is that we go into Day 4 with any and all of the people currently voting you ready to pick up where Wake left off anyway

Confirmed: This

will

happen.

I'm done being wishy-washy about it.

[Belisarius]

I feel wake is town and Pie can still be of help.

If you want to save Wake, lynch Pie.

"Can be of help" is a load of bollocks. He's confirmed scum. If he's a SK, where are the scum NKs? You think they no-kill gambited 2 nights in a row, or a doc protected correctly 2 nights in a row?

Shooting DV was clearly a gambit, and it's a gambit that should fail miserably.

[Belisarius]

He buys Pie=Factionscum afair

I'll thank you not to answer questions for me in the future.

I'm voting pie because
a)

he's fucking well claimed scum

b) I think Wake is town and pie is the only counterwagon that's had a chance to save Wake so far, and
c) third, a

distant

third, he could be factional scum instead of SK. That would just be the whipped cream on the breasts, though.

[Belisarius]

Yes. You've claimed scum. And how do you win at mafia?

You lynch scum.

Seriously, how is this difficult to understand?

[Belisarius]

This isn't baseball. Batting 0.500 doesn't make you an all-star.

[Belisarius]

With 8 days left, and saving Pie to shoot again, and not lynching Wake, who are your top 4 scum candidates?

Levi, talah, StefanB, and I dunno maybe Nati for ruining my questioning of Levi.

Outside of Glork, I don't know a single person on this entire site who can claim that they are consistently better than finding scum than an all-star baseball player is at hitting a ball. Even Glork might have a difficult time with that, I don't know, but he's probably consistently the most accurate on site off the top of my head.

You realise you're arguing that hitting scum

once

qualifies pie as the best scumhunter in the game? What is this madness

[Belisarius]

@talah: I'm not scumreading you because of petulance, I'm scumreading you because you were playing like I did in Open 480. Sure, it didn't continue

after

I first told you what I found suspicious, but that in itself is WIFOM.

[Belisarius]

If I were "humourbussing" it would be funny.

[Belisarius]

Beli can you link your scum meta that you think I'm emulating?

Yes, I have that ability.

[Belisarius]

((Yes, I was tempted to leave it at that))

Open 480

[Belisarius]

Finally. Let's get this shit done

VOTE: pie

[Belisarius]

believe theres no way titus is not scum here.

Her diction in 5556 referencing Wake and talah matches the way someone would speak when referring to the same faction.

Wherefore the Nacho hate today?

[Belisarius]

Finally. Let's get this shit done

VOTE: pie

Talah shot doesn't bother you at all?

I thought talah was scum too, remember?

[Belisarius]

I dont

like

understand the people on the titus wagon.

I don't understand why there

is

a Titus wagon.

We have confirmed scum.

We have proof that leashing isn't working.

We have accounted for all of the kills

without

scum any kills.

In what universe is it a good idea to leave that alive?

Today should be over already.

If I was right about levi being on a scumteam comprised entirely of mobile suit pilots, then Nacho is town because gin.

If one of {levi,pie} flips Clotho or Orga, my chances of being wrong about that are pretty goddamn low.

[Belisarius]

Pie shot DV. At the very least, it's SK+Scum

You actually think that a gambit is

less

likely than the scum kill being stopped/duplicated by town-motivated shooters

three fucking nights in a row?

What is this madness?

[Belisarius]

Uh I'm thinking that mods aren't going to let players shoot their own teammates?

The mod is not playing. If the scumteam agrees on a sac ploy, mod intervention would violate neutrality.

I've counselled a scumbuddy to just sit back and let the town rip itself apart before. It's not a stretch. Even sacrificing DV wouldn't be a stretch if the other scum have a better PR -- and given the large number of PR claims we're seeing (not to mention recent site meta), it's pretty likely the scumteam is either all or mostly PRs. This could even be a role madness game if levi's ridiculous "VT mobile suit" claim is the lie it so obviously is.

Furthermore, put yourself in the position of scum whose buddy has just claimed SK. Wouldn't you approve of a strategy of the SK-claim agreeing to be leashed and shooting as directed as long as the town's choice of target is a townie?

The missng kills are no misrep. ISO the mod and count them up. Who did scum shoot at?

AA9 was an agreed upon target. Wayne was not. I didn't see any decent cases for Wayne-scum. Wayne was drawing fire not because he was thought to be scum, but because some players don't like him as a player, regardless of alignment. That's a pretty shitty way to win at Mafia.

Lastly, even if pie is the SK and not factional, will you be able to refute anybody who says "town deserved to lose" if we don't pull off a miracle win after three consecutive days of

not lynching confirmed scum?

[Belisarius]

People bitched about Wayne because they don't like him. I did not see anything I would have taken seriously as a vig looking to further my wincon.

[Belisarius]

And the difference between a vig and a leashed sk?

Oh that's right, we have to lynch the goddamned sk to win.

[Belisarius]

Finally. Let's get this shit done

VOTE: pie

making a safe vote like this doesn't make me see you as very town at the moment. especially with the very few posts you have currently been making compared to others voting for Pie.

Safe?

I'm being Wake 2.0. What happened to Wake again?

Oh right, don't care, because if people don't start listening to reason real damned soon the game is lost anyways.

[Belisarius]

Beli: You are the new Wake why?

Because I have to be. Nobody else is actually

arguing

for the pie lynch, nobody's voting pie, and my only solid allies seem to be Titus, who is just saying "that's what we agreed upon" and Majiffy, who's just proddodging with one-liners asking if we've lynched pie yet.

Wake was

right

. Somebody's got to pick up the torch.

Pie is going to flip rau le creuset. Take that to the bank.

Right, the mental link.

You see, I forgot about that because

it doesn't matter

.

Pie's got to go because he's confirmed scum. I'm not pushing him exclusively because he might be factional, I'm pushing him because he 100% has to die if town is going to win. Factional would just be the whipped cream on the breasts.

I don't care if pie gets

modconfirmed

as SK, he's got to die and the sooner the better.

[Belisarius]

Not Nacho. If Levi is scum, that makes Nacho town.

Speaking of which,

VOTE: Leviathan

[Belisarius]

so if Levi is town, does that make nacho scum?

No. Your townflip would tell me fuck all about Nacho.

[Belisarius]

"if he is scum, nacho is town"
but yet the vice versa switch of "levia is lynched and turns up town, that means nacho is scum" doesn't make sense?

If I miss the bus, I'll be late for work.
I'm late for work, therefore I missed the bus.
It couldn't possibly be for any other reason.

[Belisarius]

The only thing with Levi is the way DV talked me off of him day one

Permit me to refresh your memory

[Belisarius]

Oh and just about his mobile suit bs - i'm a vt and

have no mobile suit![/b] there is nothing about a mobile suit anywhere.

That's my point; we have PRs without a suit, so why from a design standpoint would anyone include a suit with no abilities?

There are mook suits in the Gundam multiverse (Zakus, GMs, Marasai etc.), but the "mook suits" in SEED are mass-produced ZAFT suits including the GINN and BaCUE.

Miguel from the opening flavour piloted a GINN, and it had abilities. Waltfeld's LaGOWE is a next-gen BaCUE. Unpowered mook suits don't fit the game.

[Belisarius]

Belisarius - How do you know we have PRs without a suit? Have you received some communication that leads you to believe that? Or are you guessing?

Didn't

anyone

read the exchange where I cussed out Nati?

I thought it was the funniest part of the thread.

1011

[Belisarius]

And I'm gonna go farther at this point and confirm I don't have a mobile suit at all. Since I've fullclaimed already, I'm just gonna say I'm Lacus Clyne. If Beli or someone who knows the flavor better than me wants to analyze that, go right on ahead.

It makes sense for Lacus to be a PR with no suit, she's the leader of the Three Ships faction, captain of METEOR, and partner of Andrew Waltfeld.

It also makes sense for Lacus to be in the game; I've been a bit puzzled over how few Coordinators we have. Lacus is a Coordinator leader opposing the Patrick Zala faction. It fits like a glove.

[Belisarius]

Right, can the people voting for leviathan kindly move their votes to nachokoopa then?

Nope. This needs to happen.

Not right away, though. Let's give the people who haven't posted content in the current day phase time to respond. We've got over a week.

@Mod: V/LA til Tuesday

[Belisarius]

Sorry, my V/LA took a day longer than I thought it would, but I'm back now.

It's looking like I'll have to claim to save Nacho. Do I really have to do that? I shouldn't have to do that.

Levi and Nacho aren't scum together. I have role-related information to back this up.

I've never played with the Koopa head of Nacho before, but the Nacho head fights a hell of a lot harder than this as scum

I still haven't seen a cogent argument for Nacho-as-scum

I'm pretty confident that scumNacho would have shot Nati by now unless they were scum together, and I don't think Nati is scum based on the synergy between my flavour and Nati's.

[Belisarius]

Beli, I trust you

but can you elaborate on the Levi/Nacho thing at all?

I have knowledge on Nacho that a scumbuddy would definitely be aware of, but Levi has demonstrated a lack of that knowledge; Either could be scum, but not together.

[Belisarius]

PEDIT: God damn quote tags.

@Mod: Would you be so good as to fix that last quote?

Fixed

[Belisarius]

for fuck's sake I give up

[Belisarius]

Not without a better reason than, uh...nothing? The only "case" I'm seeing on Nacho is that they're not scumhunting as hard as people expect from the Nacho head. I'm in such a slump right now that I've dialed down my participation to one game, but I was in three when I realised that shit wasn't clicking like usual. There's no reason the same thing couldn't happen to Nacho. Nacho is not supernatural, neither is Feirei, and Burden of Proficiency is harseshit.

Levi's mook suit claim, conversely, is worse than a scorching case of syphilis. It yearns for rope.

[Belisarius]

Levi's mook suit appeared to be a misreading of his role PM--I think, at least.

That sounded like a copout from caught scum to me.

I'm not interested in going after Titus today unless I have to in order to save Kanye and I can do it without sacrificing Nacho.

Granted, SA hasn't worked well for me in the past, but the method wasn't my problem, it was me. I'll get better at it as I keep using it.

Why can't you just tell me why Kanye is a townread?

Statement Analysis on Kanye not only came up clean, it came up with so many signs of positive intent it reversed a fairly strong gut scumread I had on him early in the game. Don't vig Kanye.

[Belisarius]

Nati, only one. I plan on using it tonight. While Kanye cannot be a scumbuddy with Pie, keeping Pie alive benefits town.

Beli, go on. I don't know where you are coming from, but you at least seem to be trying.

What part isn't clear, that scumLevi clears Nacho, or that Kanye's diction shows openness?

I think I tossed my notes on Kanye, but I posted them D1 IIRC. Running SA on everyone doesn't look like an effective tactic, but I can do another pass on Kanye's ISO if desired.

[Belisarius]

How positive are you on this correlation?

I'd say about 60-80% Nacho/Levi as scumbuddies isn't impossible, just ridiculously unlikely. I'd consider it functionally indistinguishable from impossible id Levi hadn't given medical reasons for poor memory retention (and yes, I believe those reasons, I don't attack a player's sportsmanship without some fucking amazing reasons)

[Belisarius]

Beliefs are not reasos.

At the time I ran my Statement Analysis, I was scumreading Kanye. That is a belief. Afterwards, I was townreading him in spite of the fact that I wanted him to be scum. That is a reason.

Furthermore, Nati and Pyro are of like mind and have the combined power to enforce their will. Do not vig Kanye. Id you pick another target, I too will have no reason to vote you. Vig me if you must, but do not vig Kanye. Better still, if I can't swing a Levi lynch today, vig Levi and when he flips scum, I'll be willing to claim to save Nacho, assuming we're both alive tomorrow.

PEDIT: ISO me and look for long posts. For anything more in-depth I'll have to re-iso him and that's going to have to wait until I'm sober.

[Belisarius]

I'm actually willing to lynch levi right now if Titus promises to shoot Nacho tonight.

Make that "vig Nacho if Levi flips town" and I'm cool with that.

If Levi flips scum and scum don't shoot Nacho or I tonight, give me a chance to claim and you can use your own judgement about whether my clear on Nacho is valid

[Belisarius]

Does Syr agree on Nacho, or is he just acquiescing?

[Belisarius]

If levi flips town, you shoot NACHO. NACHO NACHO NACHO. Any other choice will be considered a scumclaim.

Agreed.

May our mercy, as deep as the Feitas, and our authority, as powerful as the sun, be revealed for the whole world to see

[Belisarius]

This is gut, but ETL this game disnae feel like her scumgame.

[Belisarius]

No, Kanye and ETL are rubbish unconditional vigs. I'd rather see you agree to vig Nacho if Levi flips town and me if Levi flips scum than any vig offer that doesn't take into account today's flip

[Belisarius]

Er, other way around. I'd be a better vig if I'm wrong about Levi.

[Belisarius]

Nacho are not dead men walking.

Fuck it, I'm claiming unless there's a compelling reason not to in the next post preview.

[Belisarius]

I am Murrue Ramias, Captain of the Arcangel. My ability is Radar. I can target a player at night and determine if they pilot a mobile suit.

Results:
N1: DeasVail pilots a mobile suit
N2: AGar pilots a mobile suit
N3: NachoKoopa does not pilot a mobile suit
N4: Kanyeknowsbest pilots a mobile suit.

If Levi was Nacho's partner, he'd have known that there were non-Mobile Suit pilots in the game and thus would not have claimed a suit with no abilities. A mod-supplied fakeclsim would take into account that Tolle was not a mobile suit pilot--the Sky Grasper is a mobile armour, and the mid surely knows the difference due to the Murrue-Mwu flitlrtation along that distinction, from memory:

Murrue: I hate mobile armour pilots
Mwu: Good thing I'm now a mobile suit pilot.

[Belisarius]

@Beli- Tell me flavor connection between:

Kira Yamato, Freedom Gundam, JOAT - Follow, Jailkeep, Vanilla mobile suit abilities. In addition once in the game something can happen to make all my slots will refresh themselves. That occurred at the end of day one. I didn't use anything yesterday due to a lack of decent targets.

PEdit: He was pushed to a claim, otherwise he'd have been lynched. Now scum and bad town are letting him live in order to kill other bad town.

and

Nacho, Stal claimed Korijo Murdoch. Given my lack of knowledge of Gundam, I googled it and came across the wiki. The character is a chief mechanic. That suggests he repairs or heals machines. Repairing machines suggests a doctor. Doctor shouldn't claim something that makes their role obvious. Stal is scum.

Pretty tenuous; they worked together for a while early in the series. Kojiro is Arcangel's mechanic, responsible for maintenance and repair on Strike, and Kira was Strike's original pilot before Lacus gave Freedom to Kira and Murrue gave Strike to Mwu, believing Kira dead by Athrun's hand. I don't see Emp's flip being any reason to hold back on StefanB. It links him (Emp) more to Pyro (Kira's successor as Arcangel's primary protector) and me (Arcangel's captain).

[Belisarius]

I have a really stupid idea, is my gundam related to Empking?

I must have missed something; I don't have a name/suit/no-suit claim from you written down, just x-shot anytime vig.

[Belisarius]

Are you Dearka? Because there's no link between Freedom and Buster.

Strike and Buster came from the same batch of Gundam-class mobile suits and Kira originally piloted Strike, but that's the only link I can think of. Dearka's full-on ZAFT.

[Belisarius]

*brain explodes*

[Belisarius]

Athrun Zala, I pilot the Justice Gundam. Posted that before but I'm too lazy to search myself for Justice Gundam.

Ah, I remembered someone had claimed Athrun, but was on mobile. Yes, you are

hugely

connected to Empking and Freedom.

Kira's the main protagonist in the series, Athrun is sort of a backup protagonist, and they were childhood friends.

At the start of the series, Kira is a civilian compelled to work for OMNI by Murrue, and Athrun is a ZAFT pilot. At the end of the series, they're both part of the Three Ships faction.

Freedom and Justice are the only Gundam-class mobile suits built by ZAFT; Both pilots were given their Gundams by Lacus Clyne.

[Belisarius]

I am linked with Empking. I think my dayshot reset his abilities.
Pyro is linked with Pie.
Talah is linked with Majiffy.
Etl and Levi are linked.

It's not that simple; Talah/Jiffy having the same suit and you/Empking having ZAFT-made Gundam-clas suits is a tentative flavour link; it's not the same as neigbourisers or the La Flaga/Le Creuset "newtype" mental link.

Talah/Jiffy in particular is a pretty tenuous link. By that logic I'm also linked to Pyro (Mwu and Murrue were lovers) and Nati (Murrue and Lacus, together with Cagali, make the captains of the three ships that make up the Three Ships Alliance). You'd also be linked with Pie, since Athrun served under Rau. Hell, I could make a case for any player in this game to be linked to any other via flavour.

[Belisarius]

Let's lynch Levi.

This has to happen anyways, and it could help clear Nacho.

I probably won't be around again before deadline to change my vote. I might be, but I can't promise it.

[Belisarius]

Natirasha: Changing his mind more often than most people change their underwear since 2013.

[Belisarius]

Am I totally off in left field thinking I was the only one who could reset Empking's actions?

You're not, I just don't think it's relevant. Having a town PR's x-shots refreshed by a scum action doesn't seem implausible to me from a design standpoint.

[Belisarius]

no pressure, though.

[Belisarius]

PV is town. I am NOT shooting him.

I will shoot ETL or Kanye.

ETL is a bad vote

Titus was unwilling to shoot Levi

or

Nacho, and both of them got rule of three'd repeatedly by Titus yesterday. I'm still convinced Levi and Nacho can't be scum together, and WIFOM notwithstanding, the NK points to scum trying to kill the people who want to kill Nacho.

VOTE: NachoKoopa

[Belisarius]

><

Should have counted more carefully, but day had just started...

[Belisarius]

I want to move belisarius to my town reads section but that hammer is a tad suspicious.

No complaints there, I wouldn't have believed someone like me could make that kind of mistake if it hadn't just happened, either.

In case I'm killed tonight, my investigation from last night revealed that PV pilots a mobile suit.

Since Nacho is scum and not a mobile suit pilot, that all but clears Levi as far as I'm concerned.

There's at least one more scum mobile suit pilot: Clotho.

[Belisarius]

he pretty truthfully sent one to DV for some reason(or claimed to at least).

That sentence is a trainwreck.

"Pretty truthfully" -- so not totally truthfully? Also because flipped scum claimed something, you're willing to vouch for it? Why?

It's also not protown to answer a question directed at another player before they get a chance.

Did Nacho double lie to me in the message, he put a lot of effort into proving kanye town and leviathan scum.

I have a better question: Why are you fomenting WIFOM?

I want everyone to ask yourself this question, why did leviathan die, and get back to me.

You

want

inherently WIFOM NK analysis? OK, hypotheses:

It tells us that scum is pretty damned confident; I think I was the only one on the levi wagon who explicitly said I was off it yesterday, so levi would still have looked pretty lynchable.

and/or

It tells us that our remaining scum is amongst the "unlynchable" crowd or is someone who hasn't come under any real suspicion all game, such as myself, AGar, or Natirasha.

and/or

It tells us that the scum fears a yet-hidden town PR tracking them to/blocking an obvious kill; Titus said she was going to shoot ETL or Kanye, so those would have been ideal JK, watcher, or doc targets.

Insert "Or maybe that's what they

want

us to think" to the end of each hypothesis as appropriate.

[Belisarius]

i wanna hear full claims outa etl and beli. beli can go after agar but the order looks fine other than that.

I fullclaimed in 6202.

[Belisarius]

I posted my N5 result in D6 twilight (PV pilots a suit)

Last night, I scanned Nati; he was telling the truth about having no mobile suit.

[Belisarius]

What the colors mean?

I was gonna say "WHAT?" but then I remembered you replaced in.

Red are Pie's kills, blue are scum kills, black are lynches.

[Belisarius]

Probably two, at least one of which (Clotho) is a mobile suit pilot. We can't be sure there are any non-pilot scum left.

For this reason, I think optimal play would be to lynch amongst the pilots; I'd like everyone to sound off on that idea during or immediately after massclaim, as long as it's before a hammer is dropped.

[Belisarius]

BTW, unvote. You're at L-2 and there are probably 2 scum alive.

[Belisarius]

kanyeknowsbest - has a suit (investigation result)
Belisarius - does not have a suit
Yraelz AGar - has a suit (investigation result)
PeregrineV - has a suit (investigation result)
Kise Svenskt Stål StefanB TiphaineDeath - unknown (don't remember a claim, did not scan)
Sakura Hana EspeciallyTheLies - Miraillia Haw, has no suit (per claim, did not scan)
Natirasha - Lacus Clyne, has no suit (claim + investigation result confirms it)

Those who claim no suit are also claiming characters who did not pilot mobile suits in the series.

I believe ETL.

Based on the flips so far, it would be insane to believe Clotho is not in the game, so I'm not interested in lynching any non-pilots until Clotho is dead. The 3 flipped scum + Clotho + Rau = 5 anti-town players out of 21 initially, so I could believe that Clotho's flying solo right now.

I'll scan TD tonight; if I'm shot, it'll confirm all of my investigation results, so you'll be pretty well informed tomorrow. If I'm not, well, at least I'll know whether TD could be Clotho, but the rest of you have to consider the possibility I might be scum taking you for a ride.

[Belisarius]

the idea that we should start lynching from a specific pool of players because maybe one of them should be scum because a character from the theme who is in no way guaranteed to be in the game but would make sense as scum has not flipped yet is all sorts of ????? we are ostensibly at 5:2 right now so even if we were so inclined to do that nonsense were not in a position to do so. this is the time for lynching solid A+ scumreads, not flavor goose chases.

There are three Biological CPUs. The other two have flipped.

Clotho is in the game. Count on it.

It's more than a "flavour goose chase." The Radar ability was put in the game for a reason. Who does and who does not have a mobile suit is relevant to scumhunting. Sure, it requires some flavour knowledge to use it, but I've got that and there is a Gundam wiki. Look up the names of our flipped scum. You'll see them inextricably linked to Clotho.

[Belisarius]

*shrug*

Flip me and find out...as long as you get Clotho for me tomorrow.

Only problem is, if it's by lynch and not NK, you won't have Nati as conf-not-Clotho tomorrow because Clotho will shoot Nati instead of me.

[Belisarius]

Yep, I am if I'm alive, but I'm cognisant of the value in confirming everything I've been saying, which a flip would do, and it ain't lylo. You don't scare me.

[Belisarius]

Not three days ago. Last night.

[Belisarius]

I'm not trying to use investigations to get a guilty. I'm trying to use them to get an inno.

With the exception of Nati, I scanned the players I had the weakest reads on at the time. N6 I wanted to confirm Nati's claim and increase the chance of a functional inno.

[Belisarius]

Yes, you were and still are. I don't stop reading a player as soon as I think I know their alignment, though. I've been wrong once or twice in the past.

[Belisarius]

You keep putting words in my mouth. I'd highly appreciate it if you'd stop that.

[Belisarius]

I scanned the players I knew the least about.

My read on you is based purely on diction analysis. That is *not* enough to stop scumhunting on.

[Belisarius]

beli all i want you to do for me, is to break down case by case why you targeted each player and what you were thinking at the time you submitted that choice.

Christ, that's pretty tough.

I scanned DV because he was the player I understood the least.
I scanned you because you were the player I understood the least.
I scanned Nacho because he was the player I understood the least
I scanned AGar becausr he was the player I understood the least.
I scanned PB because he was the player I understood the least.
I scanned Nati out of paranoia.

An that be nae good enough, flip me, but do it today, not in lylo.

[Belisarius]

Also, intent to vote PV if he doesn't claim in his next post.

[Belisarius]

why are you being difficult?

Have you ever been annoyed to the point of psychosis by a five year old that asks you the same question over and over and over again?

How about now?

Maybe now?

How about now?

Is it annoying yet, huh huh huh?

How about now?

[Belisarius]

i wouldnt have to repeat my question if youd answer simply answer it instead of giving non answers or answers that dont explain anything at all.

I answered your question concisely and factually. The fact that you don't like the answer doesn't retroactively change my motivations to conform to some Seventh Doctor chessmastery that exists solely in your head.

[Belisarius]

@Beli- same as above, but using your flavor stuff.

I'm afraid flavour analysis has nothing useful to add here, beyond my assertion that at least one of the remaining scum is a mobile suit pilot, and there might only be one.

[Belisarius]

I pointed out that Titus said he would shoot you or ETL :<

[Belisarius]

*she
*ETL or Kanye

Got to stop posting while playing ffxiv

[Belisarius]

I'm telling you right now I'm vetoing the fuck out of an ETL lynch.

Seconded.

[Belisarius]

He probably expects me to quickhammer as soon as he hits L-1.

It's not a realistic expectation, though.

[Belisarius]

That's exactly what has me worried. If we mislynch today, I'll be a ridiculously easy mislynch tomorrow. I'm already in lylo mode.

I'd actually consider selfhammering in order to create a more towncentric lylo.

[Belisarius]

You, Nati, Kanye

[Belisarius]

In current gamestate, Shaheed's Law applies to Kanye's alignment

[Belisarius]

I don't wanna hear about Shaheed's law ever again.

Oh?

How about the Vector principle, then?

[Belisarius]

So really, it's got to be me or TD. Time to make some choices, folks.

[Belisarius]

Nati can't be Clotho, he has no mobile suit.

[Belisarius]

If you're in the camp that there are two scum, I am not clear.

There's a difference between "clear" and "a suboptimal lynch."

Given that I know that a) there's still at least one scum left, and b) I know that scum pilots a mobile suit, it makes sense to lynch between pilots.

[Belisarius]

Want me to vote a non-mobile suit pilot? Kill Clotho. Once Clotho is dead I will be willing to lynch amongst nonpilots.

[Belisarius]

Depends on if there are one or two left.

If there's one, it's a suit pilot. If there are two, there's one of each.

PV and Agar's play today has been pinging my towndar like mad, so if it's not TD, my second choice would be you. My second choice doesn't matter, though, because that's not a lynch I can pull off, not without a hell of a lot more skill than I have.

[Belisarius]

It's PoE. Remaining pilots are {PV, AGar, Kanye, TD}

Your posts and AGar's today have been townier than Kanye's, and I've been steered wrong by Statement Analysis before -- I admit that my wrongness in those games is more likely an issue with my skill and not the method, but by the same token, I don't think my skill in applying the method has advanced significantly enough to consider Statement Analysis a clear...especially since it was wrong about Titus in this very game.

I'd almost be suspicious of a Kanye/TD team for trying to discredit my flavour analysis (I was right about the Tel'aran'rhiod kills in Cephrir's AMoL, and I'm right about this), except that they're both suit pilots, and Clotho's the only remaining major pilot in the story.

[Belisarius]

PoE based on flavor I barely get isn't enough for me to lynch right away.

Anything thread- or post-based?

The only thing flavour-based you need to understand is that I think that there's scum in the mobile suit pilots.

I also think TD-scum is significantly more likely than any of the other pilots, but I'm not

so

sure that I'd rule out lynching myself to create a more town-centric lylo. I've been pondering it for days and I'm no closer to an answer.

[Belisarius]

I'l admit, I'm not weeping bitter tears at not having to decide whether to hammer TD or selfhammer.

[Belisarius]

Yep, saw this coming.

I'm still townreading

everyone

left alive. I couldn't think my way out of that box during night phase.

I could do anything, man.

Anything.

Except vote ETL. That won't be happening.

[Belisarius]

Beli, who did you scan last night?

ETL; She's the only living player that I hadn't scanned. As expected, she's telling the truth: No suit.

hey beliruse can you explain what in your role pm made you think multifaction way back when?

It was a reading fail; I thought my role PM didn't explicitly state my factional alliance until I reread it later.

I can't remember how I connected that to multiball logically.

[Belisarius]

Current intent in to vote Kayne. maybe Beli.

How many scum do you think are left?

[Belisarius]

Current intent in to vote Kayne. maybe Beli.

How many scum do you think are left?

21 players would make me say 5.

the SK is the tricky part, some mods count that as scum, others don't.

We are either 3-2 or 4-1.

Of course it's either one or two. There are 5 alive and the game hasn't ended.

Which do you think it is, one or two?

[Belisarius]

@Kanye: Assume one scum left, and I flip Murrue. Do you think my flip clears ETL? If not, would you prefer to be in 3p lylo with you, ETL, AGar or you, ETL, PV?

@AGar: Assume the opposite, and that I'm scum. Who is my scumbuddy?

@ETL: What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow?

[Belisarius]

Because 1 scum left means it's Clotho, and my flip will prove that ETL isn't Clotho.

[Belisarius]

Also fuck fool's errands sideways with a diode, this is a hypothetical. Or did you think I was claiming scum in my question to AGar?

[Belisarius]

DON'T IGNORE ME INVISIBLEKANYE I KNOW YOU'RE ONLINE AND I'M TYPING THIS ON A PHONE WITH NO CAPSLOCK SO DINNAE LEAVE ME HANGING











Come back







She meant nothing to me I swear

[Belisarius]

Kanyeeeeeeeee you cum-guzzling thundercunt talk to meeeeee


I expect to be lynched today, so I'm assuming Clotho is flying solo because Shaheed's Law, so I'm tempted to vote just to get the "not scum with anybody but x" not-hammers. SOMEBODY STOP ME

[Belisarius]

O for a muse of fire that would ascend the brightest heaven of invention...

Fuck it, gin is awesome. INTENT TO VOTE, BIOTCHES

[Belisarius]

Don't think I won't vote

[Belisarius]

YOU'RE ALL COMMUNISTS

[Belisarius]

VOTE: Kdub

[Belisarius]

Because 1 scum left means it's Clotho, and my flip will prove that ETL isn't Clotho.

i still dont agree with this. there is no guarantee clotho is in the setup.

What if I die and the game disnae end?

[Belisarius]

GDI Garak, why?

[Belisarius]

Aye, assume I'm lynched today ( anyone not favouring a me-lynch is bad) who dies tomorrow to make a town win

[Belisarius]

GDI Garak, why?

Universal town reads still alive in almost-LYLO/MYLO?

And thou'rt nae afraid o' being full i'shitr
?

[Belisarius]

So...I was totally going somewhere with those questions, but I don't remember where.

I also usually roll my eyes at people who vote the mod, but mmmmm gin.

[Belisarius]

So, uh, we seem to be stalled.

Should we all do a scum->town continuum and see where the consensus lies?

Alternatively we can just all vote the player named by whoever has the largest quantity of gray hairs. I'm OK with that, too.

[Belisarius]

here is a game where me and my scumbuddy tne had a lengthy conversation in 5p lylo with town voting town because neither of us could rely on the other to be online after the L-1 vote. (I stayed up til 5AM in case I'd have a chance to hammer, and in my case, voting Troubles would have been a scumclaim)

[Belisarius]

My point is that for a safe quickhammer, both scum would have to be online at the same time. That hasn't happened since Shit Faced Sunday.

[Belisarius]

EBWOP: "that" referring to any two players.

[Belisarius]

It is lylo. Lylo is not the time for hasty decisions.

[Belisarius]

ISO the mod. The last vc shows the living players, of which there are 5.

[Belisarius]

There are posts you've made throughout today that have felt as if you're just throwing shit at all four walls and hoping it'll stick to as many as possible.

I can understand how this is a valid strategy from town (looking exclusively at the meaning of the statement, rather than how it's being said), but can you explain in what way "throwing shit at all four walls" would benefit scum?

[Belisarius]

Being seen to foment noise and confusion doesn't benefit scum, though, and putting a lot of lead in the air to see what sticks is pretty well a dictionary definition of scumhunting. I'm open to reasoning about why I'm wrong about that, though.

[Belisarius]

Eh, at this rate of activity I don't see enough happening before deadline to change the game, time to take a risk

VOTE: PV

[Belisarius]

VOTE: Clotho

[Belisarius]

...That's never going to work, is it?

[Belisarius]

I'm fucking torn. On the one hand, Kanye's claim sounds like something heavily townread scum might come up with to explain why he hasn't been NK'd, but on the other, AGar's unstinting support of me feels like buddying.

Kanye, try to kill me. AGar, imagine the game's over and I've flipped scum, then go over my ISO and tell me everything you wish you'd noticed.

[Belisarius]

So AGar's ISO is looking good so far, time to nut up, Kanye.

[Belisarius]

My worry about buddying has been averted by some of AGar's posts earlier in the game that I'd forgotten about where he called me an idiot.

[Belisarius]

PV as a higher priority kill? He got

lynched

. Remember Titus saying "I will not shoot lynchbait?"

That was the scumteam talking.

You've been heavily townread all game, I can easily see someone like Titus deciding to get rid of you early.

[Belisarius]

Not hammering.

[Belisarius]

I have no idea who the fuck I should vote.

I'm looking for associative links but I need more time.

[Belisarius]

Levi - Kanye - Nacho. Signed sealed delivered.

Rule of 3 points to townKanye

PV is town. I am NOT shooting him.

I will shoot ETL or Kanye.

Also pointing to townKanye

Still need more time to look over Nacho and DV and I have to get ready for work now.

[Belisarius]

Had some unexpected time at work to look at ISOs and votecounts. I got nothing from DV, a possible Rule of 3 from Nacho (quote saved on my pc at home), but what really struck me was voting patterns.

Kanye has spent a ridiculous amount of time this game voting scum, usually early votes. He's hopped off at the 11th hour to lynch town a couple of times. The exception was the Titus lynch, which both of you were on at hammer time, and Nacho, where it would have been perfectly reasonable to expect a chance to hop off.

Nobody is that good, and even if a player's reads were that accurate by utter chance, scum would not allow that player to live until lylo.

Intent to hammer

[Belisarius]

Pushing scum a lot is good. Accuracy to the degree I've seen here would require either foreknowledge of who the scum are, or precognition. One of these does not exist