Amnesiac Mafia - Pre-Game Stage! OOPS GAME OVER

[Cephrir]

Serra is a dumb lynch today

Another possibility: perhaps scum have the ability to 1-shot actually use their fakeclaim or something to prevent lender from breaking the game

I dunno this just seems too easy

[Cephrir]

Look I'm not really thinking I just feel like it can't be this easy. Sven you need to pick someone else to claim.

[Cephrir]

We're claiming in a chain, in which each claimee chooses the next claimee. Did you just randomly claim? It was your turn.

[Cephrir]

Relevant

[Cephrir]

So I've been thinking about the NS situation. I haven't actually come to any conclusions other than what we've already established. Hypothetical NS-Scum expects fuzzy to hide behind him and die; does mafia kill here and let NS die or try to save his ass by not killing? Did they really kill GIF? I dunno, but as I was going back through the thread I noticed this post again:

So hey let's talk interactions:

NS x pops

if Nacho says hohum is town my guess is hohum is scum.

I might draw additional ire for poor humor comprehension, but please assure me this is a joke.

I also have a town-read on hohum.



My vote stays on Loranth. Very good lynch, right there.

This is his only Day 1 interaction with pops Day 1. It's literally him declaring a townread on hohum and that's it. Not to mention the vote parking.

Massclaiming (this early) is bad.

Setup spec is bad.

You are (almost) all bad and should feel bad.

I'm ready to vote pops after everyone's checked in.

Only interaction Day 2 is soft-bussing.

Yep, that's it.

As I believe I've mentioned, the last part of this post sounds a bit contrived, you can't read anything into interactions with someone who's been investigated guilty by an essentially confirmed town. It also caused me to remember another post... perhaps we should be looking at other interactions with pops.

How could you miss your counterwagon as town?
Were you just caring so little about whether you survive or not that you didn't notice Cephrir missing from the list?

You've just outlined why the whole shebang is a townslip. This wagon is stupid.

You however, aren't stupid. I'm not sure I can say the same of Human Destroyer, who is drinking tunnel kool-aid and entering a stupid frame of mind, but your behavior throughout this game has not seemed very townish. You pick a player and go after them, and then encourage lurkers to help you get to L-0. Meanwhile you do little to nothing to gather new information. It's all vig and no cop.

And the worst part is not reverting your stance on the "scumslip" in light of new information, the post he linked with the missing Cephrir. You forced the information to fit like a round peg in a square hole. Failing to note a missing counterwagon is very townish, it's antisurvivalist. Not using the preview button is townish. If you were a town player with any reasonable amount of confirmation bias, you would not keep driving on this point. You're less of a troll than HD, so I'm going to burden you with a bit of proficiency and assume you know better.

Vote:Nachomamma8

Loran gives off an ineffable town vibe to me, so I find anyone who is getting a different read from that worthy of a couple scumpoints. Nachomamma seems to be the most insincere, manipulative driver of the wagon, though.

This is the only interaction pops has with anyone who hasn't already flipped town. If Nacho and HD are both town, pops 100% completely ignored his scumbuddies day 1. Pops does know Loran didn't slip- this could easily be a rebuke aimed at either Nacho or HD, but he gives HD a total free pass and votes Nacho. I would be willing to vote either of them. I don't find either slot particularly townie. If Nacho were town, his flip would be useful information (it would 100% clear chesskid). But I'm not thinking like that, that sort of hedging is kind of silly. HD also has the trying-to-set-up-Godot-mislynch-D2-after-Loran deal, and rereading him didn't inspire me to think he was incredibly town. The strength with which he pushed Loran did read town to me at one point, but I know I've been that gung-ho about a town lynch as scum too. And not so much of a hint of surprise today over the Loran flip? I don't care for it.

Vote: Human Destroyer

[Cephrir]

I never claimed to have a rock-solid case. I'm just not convinced enough to vote NS, and I'm presenting an alternative.

[Cephrir]

Fine, I'll stop being lazy. It's not like you really provided much for me to disagree with ("Your argument is dumb" is not a rebuttal)

So hey let's talk interactions:

NS x pops


This is his only Day 1 interaction with pops Day 1. It's literally him declaring a townread on hohum and that's it. Not to mention the vote parking.

Only interaction Day 2 is soft-bussing.

Yep, that's it.

As I believe I've mentioned, the last part of this post sounds a bit contrived, you can't read anything into interactions with someone who's been investigated guilty by an essentially confirmed town. It also caused me to remember another post... perhaps we should be looking at other interactions with pops.

So...huh? Somehow reading a post as soft-bussing and distancing is contrived?

Yeah. What would be the point of "soft bussing" a confirmed scum? Trying to read into Day 2 is pretty useless.

How could you miss your counterwagon as town?
Were you just caring so little about whether you survive or not that you didn't notice Cephrir missing from the list?

You've just outlined why the whole shebang is a townslip. This wagon is stupid.

You however, aren't stupid. I'm not sure I can say the same of Human Destroyer, who is drinking tunnel kool-aid and entering a stupid frame of mind, but your behavior throughout this game has not seemed very townish. You pick a player and go after them, and then encourage lurkers to help you get to L-0. Meanwhile you do little to nothing to gather new information. It's all vig and no cop.

And the worst part is not reverting your stance on the "scumslip" in light of new information, the post he linked with the missing Cephrir. You forced the information to fit like a round peg in a square hole. Failing to note a missing counterwagon is very townish, it's antisurvivalist. Not using the preview button is townish. If you were a town player with any reasonable amount of confirmation bias, you would not keep driving on this point. You're less of a troll than HD, so I'm going to burden you with a bit of proficiency and assume you know better.

Vote:Nachomamma8

Loran gives off an ineffable town vibe to me, so I find anyone who is getting a different read from that worthy of a couple scumpoints. Nachomamma seems to be the most insincere, manipulative driver of the wagon, though.

This is the only interaction pops has with anyone who hasn't already flipped town. If Nacho and HD are both town, pops 100% completely ignored his scumbuddies day 1.

Quite plausible, actually.

Obviously I beg to differ. Because Pops was so high on my town list, I think he's probably a pretty good player, and I don't believe good players ignore both of their scumbuddies. That's what noobscum do to avoid relational tells. Good scum can comment on their scumbuddies without becoming connected to them.

Pops does know Loran didn't slip- this could easily be a rebuke aimed at either Nacho or HD, but he gives HD a total free pass and votes Nacho. I would be willing to vote either of them. I don't find either slot particularly townie. If Nacho were town, his flip would be useful information (it would 100% clear chesskid). But I'm not thinking like that, that sort of hedging is kind of silly.

This is dumb.
It's like someone saying they have 2 scumreads and voting one of them, that person flips scum, so somehow the person they didn't vote is scum? It's basically loaded with terrible assumptions.

I don't see how this is related to anything I said.

HD also has the trying-to-set-up-Godot-mislynch-D2-after-Loran deal,

"Voicing that you want to lynch through your scumreads is scummy."

Yeah, it is. Town focus on one day at a time because they don't know what the lynchee will flip, and a scumflip changes everything.

Your condescending neutral emoticons are getting old.

and rereading him didn't inspire me to think he was incredibly town. The strength with which he pushed Loran did read town to me at one point, but I know I've been that gung-ho about a town lynch as scum too. And not so much of a hint of surprise today over the Loran flip? I don't care for it.

Vote: Human Destroyer

"His drive of the Loran lynch is townish, but it doesn't come from town because I said so."

Great case you got there.

Misrepresentation. A better paraphrase: "I thought you were town at one point because X but I no longer think it's sufficient to exclude you from suspicion or that it's as strong a tell as I initially imagined."

In fact I'm recalling (haven't played much in a few years) that I generally tunnel one player as scum so I don't have to invent suspicions of anyone else.

Also, yeah no shit I was surprised; I still carried on with my scumhunting because, y'know, that's the sensical thing to do. Contrary to popular belief, when one speaks in text, they don't need to express emotions. Shocking, I know.

Bullshit. If you're pushing a lynch as hard as you were, you don't just carry on the next day without a word about it, regardless of whether or not you were right.

Nice OMGUS by the way.

[Cephrir]

@Sven: Not for certain. It's possible the mafia just killed fuzzy because the hider-commuter interaction doesn't work the way we wanted it to.

I'm not discounting the possibility, though.

@HD 2215: At the time I did not view what I had constructed as a "case".

[Cephrir]

Fine, I'll stop being lazy. It's not like you really provided much for me to disagree with ("Your argument is dumb" is not a rebuttal)

*shrug* don't make dumb arguments then

So hey let's talk interactions:

NS x pops


This is his only Day 1 interaction with pops Day 1. It's literally him declaring a townread on hohum and that's it. Not to mention the vote parking.

Only interaction Day 2 is soft-bussing.

Yep, that's it.

As I believe I've mentioned, the last part of this post sounds a bit contrived, you can't read anything into interactions with someone who's been investigated guilty by an essentially confirmed town. It also caused me to remember another post... perhaps we should be looking at other interactions with pops.

So...huh? Somehow reading a post as soft-bussing and distancing is contrived?

Yeah. What would be the point of "soft bussing" a confirmed scum? Trying to read into Day 2 is pretty useless.

Is this like a joke or something?

It's a thing called distancing, where you try to avoid being associated with your scumbuddy. That's like...really obvious.

Also, did you seriously just tell me to not read into posts? Because that's pretty bad.

I don't know what's so difficult about this. When someone is investigated guilty everyone will look exactly as much like they're bussing as everyone else. Calling someone out for bussing a guilty investigation from a cleared player is stupid.

How could you miss your counterwagon as town?
Were you just caring so little about whether you survive or not that you didn't notice Cephrir missing from the list?

You've just outlined why the whole shebang is a townslip. This wagon is stupid.

You however, aren't stupid. I'm not sure I can say the same of Human Destroyer, who is drinking tunnel kool-aid and entering a stupid frame of mind, but your behavior throughout this game has not seemed very townish. You pick a player and go after them, and then encourage lurkers to help you get to L-0. Meanwhile you do little to nothing to gather new information. It's all vig and no cop.

And the worst part is not reverting your stance on the "scumslip" in light of new information, the post he linked with the missing Cephrir. You forced the information to fit like a round peg in a square hole. Failing to note a missing counterwagon is very townish, it's antisurvivalist. Not using the preview button is townish. If you were a town player with any reasonable amount of confirmation bias, you would not keep driving on this point. You're less of a troll than HD, so I'm going to burden you with a bit of proficiency and assume you know better.

Vote:Nachomamma8

Loran gives off an ineffable town vibe to me, so I find anyone who is getting a different read from that worthy of a couple scumpoints. Nachomamma seems to be the most insincere, manipulative driver of the wagon, though.

This is the only interaction pops has with anyone who hasn't already flipped town. If Nacho and HD are both town, pops 100% completely ignored his scumbuddies day 1.

Quite plausible, actually.

Obviously I beg to differ. Because Pops was so high on my town list, I think he's probably a pretty good player, and I don't believe good players ignore both of their scumbuddies. That's what noobscum do to avoid relational tells. Good scum can comment on their scumbuddies without becoming connected to them.

I seriously question how pops could possibly have been on any list; he was fairly under the radar.

Anyway, if he's such good scum...why would he narrow his scumbuddies to a smaller pool of people as he would have done in the theoretical you're proposing?
You're just assuming "Oh he can interact with his scumbuddies, therefore he will" which is total bs and, if he didn't interact with most of the playerlist, terrible strategy-wise.

It's basically an extremely convoluted Burden of Proficiency on pops that isn't even correct.

I assure you, pops was that high on my town list. Every post of his was well thought out and I agreed with him pretty much every sentence. I could even point you to where it happens, though it's not clear there what I'm referring to ("sorry Sven, you're now my 3rd town read").

Obviously I don't think the failure to interact with most of the player list was intentional; I'm not burdening him with *that* much proficiency, just some. Your condescending paraphrase is a basically adequate summary of my position.

HD also has the trying-to-set-up-Godot-mislynch-D2-after-Loran deal,

"Voicing that you want to lynch through your scumreads is scummy."

Yeah, it is. Town focus on one day at a time because they don't know what the lynchee will flip, and a scumflip changes everything.

Your condescending neutral emoticons are getting old.

Go read more games. Hell, just read

my

games. And be surprised at how hilariously wrong this is.

Keep saying I'm wrong without real reasons I'm sure that'll work out

and rereading him didn't inspire me to think he was incredibly town. The strength with which he pushed Loran did read town to me at one point, but I know I've been that gung-ho about a town lynch as scum too. And not so much of a hint of surprise today over the Loran flip? I don't care for it.

Vote: Human Destroyer

"His drive of the Loran lynch is townish, but it doesn't come from town because I said so."

Great case you got there.

Misrepresentation. A better paraphrase: "I thought you were town at one point because X but I no longer think it's sufficient to exclude you from suspicion or that it's as strong a tell as I initially imagined."

That's not at all a misrep; that's pretty much what you said. You're editing it now to fit your needs and make me look bad.

This is so patently false that I cannot possibly debunk it with specific arguments. Learn to read?

In fact I'm recalling (haven't played much in a few years) that I generally tunnel one player as scum so I don't have to invent suspicions of anyone else.

Explain why I have other suspicions then if my entire plan is a tunnel so that I don't have to "invent" other scumreads?
I'm completely happy with you debunking your own arguments, but that's less fun for me.

I never said you didn't have other suspicions, although I am not in fact cognizant of you having had others yesterday, I'll just assume you aren't making that up. I'm just saying I think tunnel vision is a good scum strategy.

Also, yeah no shit I was surprised; I still carried on with my scumhunting because, y'know, that's the sensical thing to do. Contrary to popular belief, when one speaks in text, they don't need to express emotions. Shocking, I know.

Bullshit. If you're pushing a lynch as hard as you were, you don't just carry on the next day without a word about it, regardless of whether or not you were right.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cephrir

Let's dance.

This is now a 1v1.

You didn't even give me anything to respond to here. You're just saying I'm wrong because emoticon. Emoticons are not valid arguments. I suspect you further for trying to "1v1" someone who was nearly lynched earlier in the game. This idea is antitown- why should the town ignore all other possible suspects on your say so? You just know I'm far more likely to be lynched than you are.

[Cephrir]

Pops 586 is a good post, and I find it somewhat convincing. Godot goes in the leaning-scum pile.

Calling me scum for wanting the lynch of Godot? Guess who else wanted it?

Lol? Thanks for making my point for me? Read the post I'm agreeing with. It doesn't say "we should lynch Godot tomorrow", it said "he's suspicious". That's a big difference. I did not call you scum for wanting to lynch Godot, I called you scum for setting up a D2 mislynch explicitly. And here's the funny part. The post I'm agreeing with is suspicious of Godot for doing

exactly what I'm accusing you of

. Lolololol

[Cephrir]

He did also include his own name in the list, another suggestion that he could have copied it. Is this just me grasping for the possibility I wasn't wrong after all? Maybe. My two strongest townreads (sorry Svenskt, you've moved down to #3 ) think it's not a slip though.

In context you can tell I'm talking about pops

[Cephrir]

I don't feel the need to respond to the latest. I've said enough for everyone else to judge for themselves. Feel free to quote this, use a smiley, and thereby imply that I'm somehow unable to overcome your shitty arguments rather than that I no longer see the point in bickering over semantics.

[Cephrir]

The one thing I do want to point out is how ridiculous an assertion it is that you're more likely to be lynched than I am because you have one more vote on you when I was nearly lynched Day 1 and you've been universally townread by everyone else. Anyway I'm actually done now

[Cephrir]

*yawn*

People who aren't voting: Why aren't you voting

[Cephrir]

Will vote NS at deadline I guess

zzzzz

[Cephrir]

We could let chesskid's replacement catch up but who knows if they'll do that fast enough...

Vote: NS

No one seems to want to join me... I'll get you tomorrow scallawag

[Cephrir]

I don't see what you flipping town would say about my alignment. Personally I figured everyone would be all over me if you flipped scum for starting something else when your lynch seemed inevitable. Meh.

[Cephrir]

VT, Nacho.

Also, judging from comments thus far today, it looks like we're probably going to lose, because no, I am not currently a Lender.

Also I'm not convinced there is a point is No Lynching since with chesskid dead Vifam is clear.

[Cephrir]

It's been laid out fairly well. You're scum or there's a mafia roleblocker. I doubt the rolestopper would have been stupid enough to be on me.

If I were scum, I'd have nothing to gain here by lying.

[Cephrir]

Was GIF outed as lender before he used the ability? If there is a mafia roleblocker, and I think the setup plainly calls for one, I don't see why they wouldn't have blocked him. Maybe he wasn't outed but I thought I remembered that?

[Cephrir]

@serra: If I was mafia, I think I would have gotten the Lender safeclaim. I could be wrong though. Considering no one has claimed Rolestopper I think it's safe to say we didn't have one.

GIF isn't 100% clear I don't think, but close enough. If we assume Vifam and GIF are indeed town, that leaves 3 scum out of 6 remaining players. So even if you believe there is one scum between myself and serra, which is probable but not certain, we have just as good a chance of hitting scum if we lynch in the other four. Nacho has some night actions going for him (would scum have confirmed chesskid?). So I think my preference for today is still to lynch HD.

[Cephrir]

I had a town read on Sven day 1 but he's been slipping since then and not really helping. I don't know if scum-hohum would have flipped his shit over not being able to lynch a townie (yes, I know this logic only works from my POV, but I'm just giving my thought process). Then again I don't see anyone flipping their shit like that ever, so maybe not a tell? If we got to tomorrow I'd have to look back.

Another benefit to not no lynching is that if we lynch scum and we have a hider we can actually use it.

[Cephrir]

I'm saying if I were scum and had the lender fakeclaim, as I assumed I would have, I'd have no reason not to claim lender today, as I'm far more likely to be lynched than anyone.

I suppose there's a remote chance of getting this answered.

MOD: If hypothetically, a role exists that can assure a target player gets it the following day, and it happens to be named 'Lender', would a scum targetted by the Lender know it slash get a corresponding fakeclaim?

Lol @ trying to remove myself from the lynch pool. I'm pointing out that this isn't a dichotomy. It's ridiculous that anyone would find that scummy. Also, I'm allowed to care about my life as town anyway today seeing as lynching me ends the game.

I've grown more confident about my case as your responses to it have sucked.

[Cephrir]

Lol @ trying to remove myself from the lynch pool. I'm pointing out that this isn't a dichotomy. It's ridiculous that anyone would find that scummy. Also, I'm allowed to care about my life as town anyway today seeing as lynching me ends the game.

I'm aware.
At the same time, we have a fairly small lynchpool consisting of you and serra where we're fairly likely to hit a scum, yet you're completely opposed to lynching in it.
So I'm sort of questioning why you're not pushing serra if you're town.

First of all, because we're exactly as likely to hit a scum inside said pool as outside it, so thinking about the two of us as a pool is fallacious.
Second, because I don't view this pool as any more or less likely to contain scum than any other, I'd rather lynch the player I find scummiest, and in that regard serra is my second pick.

I've grown more confident about my case as your responses to it have sucked.

Not really.
You say they sucked but you never actually put any basis behind that statement.

I've responded to your arguments, most of which sound to me like you're grasping desperately for reasons to find me scummy. Ever since I initially voted you every one of your posts has sounded manipulative to me. Confirmation bias? Maybe a little. But I'm convinced I'm seeing something real, though I don't actually think anyone else is going to, nor do I think I'll be able to convince anyone.

MOD: If hypothetically, a role exists that can assure a target player gets it the following day, and it happens to be named 'Lender', would a scum targetted by the Lender know it slash get a corresponding fakeclaim?

Why would this matter, bye the bye? I'm curious.

Because of the question of whether scum-Ceph has anything to gain by admitting to not being a Lender. I'm not entirely sure it does matter given what you pointed out in 2316. By extension though, it also sort of applies to scum-serra's possible motivation in claiming to have received it yesterday? Meh. Question stands, info is good.

[Cephrir]

Also your implication that I should be pushing serra if I were town is silly. Fromthat logical perspective, I should also be pushing serra if I were scum. But here's what's actually going on.

Knowing I'm town, I know that restricting the lynch to myself or serra gives at best a 50% chance of lynching scum today, and possibly 0%. If serra is scum and we lynch outside the two of us, there is still a 50% chance, and if he's town then it's better than 50%.

[Cephrir]

Well, I'm not 100% certain. But seeing as 3 mafia vs. 10 town is a pretty conventional standard and the game's mechanic seems to favor town, I don't think the game would be balanced unless this is mylo.

[Cephrir]

The mafia almost have to try roleblocking serra in theory. The chances that a living town player was a rolestopper last night was only 6/17 if we assume 3 mafia left. And if they succeed they probably win, and if they don't they're not looking too hot.

[Cephrir]

That's not stupid, have you seen how confirmable town is? Like the whole point of half these roles is to confirm themselves.

[Cephrir]

Hider- we don't know if this fails
Commuter- we don't know if this fails
Lender- we probably know if this fails but not certainly
Motivator- we only find out whether this failed if it didn't hit a VT
Rolestopper- we don't know if this fails
VTs + Vengeful- don't have night actions.

So basically, yes.

[Cephrir]

There are only 4 roles (Follower, Voyeur, Muckraker, Reporter) that find out if they failed and 2 (Lender, Motivator) that might find out depending on stuff. That's why I don't think it's implausible that we haven't seen evidence of the RB yet.

Sven: That's part of the reason I suspect a mafia tracker as well. I would not be surprised if we were up against Strongman/Tracker/RB or possibly Redirector/Goon.

[Cephrir]

My preferences are as follows:
1.) HD
2.) Serra
3.) Jacob
4.) No Lynch

[Cephrir]

That said I like serra's play today. Going hard for me would have been the easy way out.

[Cephrir]

@Nacho: Maybe so but town is too. More importantly, there's no way it's strongman + 3 goons, they have to have something else.

[Cephrir]

Already discussed why roleblocker is still well within the realm of possibility. I'm kind of determined to believe in it because lender seems too good.

[Cephrir]

Well, yes, basically. I guess it's pretty similar to a cop though. I mean, I do still have serra down as my second choice to lynch, it's not like I'm 100% confident that there absolutely has to be a roleblocker. I feel like there's a decent enough chance that I should use my reads over the circumstantial evidence, and that's how I'd rather play anyway.

[Cephrir]

Well, deadline's in 5 days and it doesn't look like anything is changing here.

Vote: HD

[Cephrir]

I suspect they probably read your posts

[Cephrir]

Hint: they sound manipulative.

U mad I caught you for the wrong reasons?

[Cephrir]

I based it on your posts

[Cephrir]

Fuck me. On the other hand, isn't there actually a chance of a miraculous rolestopper...?

[Cephrir]

I can hope can't I

[Cephrir]

Well, I suck. Better back off the one thing I had right all game! Derp. Though I am proud of myself for not getting lynched as town (a rarity). I should have known there was something wrong with Sven's coasting late game, but good job nonetheless.