WoT Mafia, GAME OVER

[Yosarian2]

Hello all. I'm replacing in for XgreyjoyX.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, done a quick re-read. Let me say that when a scum is backed into a corner and claims cop, they usually claim to have an innocent investigation on someone who actually is innocent. It's just safer all around. I don't see any good reason to vote marityta yet.

[Yosarian2]

yeah, I agree with yos although there is a lot of WIFOM in this, I think lynching mari strickly on this would be extremely weak though

Yeah; with WIFOM issues, it's not very much of a tell either way, I think.

As it is, there are other reasons for voting Mariyta, but I don't believe this is a particularly strong one.

Ok, I'll bite. What other reasons are there for voting Mariyta?

[Yosarian2]

Yeah; it seems pretty clear Karn, Shamrock, and Flay were all scum. No way two of the forsaken could be good guys.

Since Mr. Flay was scum, I'm very interested to hear if Tamuz has any more cryptic hints for us today.

[Yosarian2]

I'm virtually sure Mariyta is scum, based on yesterday, and the fact that Karn "cleared" her is the icing on the cake. I won't say it's a mortal lock, but only because ChannelDelibird is defending her, and I have him down for the wrong scum group for that.

Perhaps Albert the Great can help clear this up. Albert, who are your scum buddies?

Hmmm...re-reading Maritya's posts from yesterday, I do see a few scum tells. Fishing for details about Tamuz's role seems scummy, and I don't like the way she voted then unvoted Karn.

[Yosarian2]

Trying to find out if someone's a cop or not is scummy; that is, it's something that would benifit the scum more then the town, and it's something the scum really want to know.

[Yosarian2]

Hmmm...yesterday, though, he gave the impression he'd be able to talk freely today, though. Still, if there is some annoying scum role that can give people freaky posting restrictions, I guess he wouldn't have known if he would be targeted again today or not.

[Yosarian2]

I'm going to do a rundown of Tamuz's posts. It's mostly for myself, but I figured I'd "think outloud" to see if anyone else has thoughts or wants to refute my thoughts....

And to not be so obtuse
I offer you a muse
For latter thoughts for you to peruse.

Yamahako wrote:
If we assume that The Forsaken are the Mafia, perhaps the black ajah are a cult and Padan Fain is an SK?


The motivation is plain to see
The black ajah is neither you nor me
rather this man it be.

For he hides in impossibilities
While tossing out incorrect realities
Just wait till you see the words into which he flees.

The man tries to flavor talk
So freely his group can walk
But we must call him, and make him balk.

It seems to me like he's referring to Yamahako here. I know Kain was wrong about Nyneave's ability, and Yamahako hinted at being a doc, but could this be wrong? I realize Yamahako is dead, but could Nyneave be part of a scum group? Or maybe SK?

First of all, there is absolutly no way Nyneave could be a bad guy. Annoying, sure, but certanly not evil. There's about 10 major character good guys in the books (depening on how you count them) who are all friends and who are all fighting against the dark lord, and she's one of them. Whichever of those people are roles in the game, they've got to be good guys. Of course, if the mod planned well, he could have left some of those roles names for safe claims for the scum to use.

It sounds like Tamuz was suspicious of Yamahako because of Yamahako's illogical specualations about the black ajah. I'm still not entirely sure if Tamuz's attack on Mr. Flay was based on role information or on some scum tell in the thread, the posts were all a little vauge. However, if he did have some kind of role-based information about Flay, then he probably did not have information about anyone else, so everything else was probably just his own personal thoughts.

[Yosarian2]

Why I choose to wagon Flay
That I would rather not tell today
And no more information from that source in my hand does stay

Ok. That's fine, we don't need to know anything else.

[Yosarian2]

Anyway,

vote:Mariyta

. Like I said, her actions yesterday with Karn look suspicious, and I also don't like the logic involved in her vote for armlx above.

[Yosarian2]

I want to put something out there in case I get ganked one of these nights:

Not this past night but the night before, someone tried to put a collar around my neck but I broke free. I suspected yesterday that Tamuz had been a victim of some kind of mind-control collar, but I guess that wasn't the case. If anyone else had the collar incident happen to them, we might want them to speak up now.

Ok...so the Seashan are going around putting collars on people. I'd assume that would only work if the person is a woman who has the one power, but if she does, it would give them pretty much complete control over her.

I'm pretty sure the Seashan would be a bad guy group, and...perhaps they have a chance to kill and a chance to recruit?

The person "killed by the one power" night one could have been a Seashan victem.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, and it probably goes without saying that if anyone is a woman who can channel (an Aes Sedi, a wise one, ect ect.) it's probably best if you don't claim at all if there are Seashan running around.

[Yosarian2]

*is staggered* Yos, are you suggestiong there's a group with the ability to shift the town-scum balance by

three

nightly?

If they can only recruit women with the one power, then that's probably a fairly small fraction of the town. If, hypothetically speaking, 1/3 of the town is women with the one power, that's a sucessfull recruitment one out of three nights at best, if there's no role-blocks or anything, and there's no way they could ever get a majority with just that power. So if the Senchen are recruiting like that, they would have to also have some kind of killing power as well, although perhaps not the ability to kill every night.

Of course, the collaring thing might be something else other then actual recruitment; perhaps they're "searching" for a woman with the one power and get some extra (probably nasty for the town) ability when they find one, or perhaps it's some kind of vote manipulation/role manipulation. And, of course, that's all assuming MrBuddyLee is telling the truth.

[Yosarian2]

I will never in a million years understand why "fishing" (aka, trying to gather information) is seen as "evil". Isn't the whole point to try to get information so you can make a conclusion? If someone hints that they have information, isn't the next logical step to try to understand that information, and get clarification?

But whatever, do what you choose.

Some information you should try to find out. Other information would benifit the scum more then the town, so therefore any attempt to find out that information (usually by some kind of subtle fishing for it) is scummy.

For example, anything that looks like an attempt to locate the doc or the cop or a mason in a sitation where it's best for them to not come out is an action that, if it works, will help scum more then town, therefore it is scummy.

[Yosarian2]

I already addressed the point many times.

Um, no, you really didn't. TSS's argument against you was something new, and certanly something you have not adressed.

[Yosarian2]

Um...TSS's argument was that that post, where you blamed your vote for armlx on Tamuz's day 1 post, was scummy. I agree that it looks scummy to say "I only voted for X because Y told me to!" It looks like an attempt to avoid personal responsibility for your own vote, which is something scum like to do if they know they're voting for a good guy.

In any case, you do realize that you still haven't even tried to respond to TSS's points, right?

[Yosarian2]

Quickly jumps off Flay-wagon. Quicker than I probably would have given the somewhat ambiguous nature of Tamuz hint. Jumps the next biggest wagon.

If Flay and Karn were in the same scum group, I don't really see him jumping off the Flay wagon and onto the Karn wagon as a scum tell. Based on flavor, I would guess that all darkfriends would most likely be one scum group.

On the other hand, I do agree that this looks bad, based on the fact we now know Karn was a bad guy:

Vote stands, I think thats too much of a flying pumpkin role to be real (unless it has existed before, in which case I will unvote).

Disbelieves Karn's role-claim, but with the caveat that if it's an actual role he'd unvote. Now I can't say if armlx really had never seen that role before or not. Only that I, like others, have seen it before.

Looks like he was voting for Karn, but setting it up in such a way so he could quickly unvote him afterwards (as soon as someone said "yup, I've seen it before") if it looked like Karn might not get lynched.

fos:armlx

I'm still pretty happy with my maritya vote for now, though. I don't like the way she's been either ignoring or misrepresenting every attack against her.

[Yosarian2]

Bah!

I'm Mazrim Taim. I serve the Dragon Reborn. I'm a vigilante.

I doubt Taim would be a gg....

Yeah, it seems fairly unlikely. Didn't Taim send Asha'men to kill Rand at one point? I mean, Taim is still at least pretending to follow Rand's orders, I think, so it could be argued, but yeah, Taim as good guy dosn't make that much sense.

As for the claim that she killed Mr. Flay last night but didn't kill anyone night 1; I could see a vig taking out Mr. Flay last night, sure, but then why were there 3 kills night 1 and only 2 kills night 2, if she killed someone night 2 but not night 1? Would that mean that there were two other kills that were blocked or doc-protected against or something on night 2? It's possible, sure, but it seems unlikely.

It's not a completly implausable claim, but I'm not convinced. I'm not going to remove my vote at this time.

[Yosarian2]

unvote

Vote: Themanhimself

When I said I'm fairly sure that Yos is scum, I mean 100% sure that he is. But if themanhimself is a better play for today then that's cool.

If you said you thought there was a chance that I was scum, I could see that, as I thought the same about you when the day started. However, there's no way you could be 100% sure of anything at this point, because I know you're not getting any kind of role-based information at night.

Now, I know you're wrong about me, and normally I'd be glad to discuss whatever you think your reasons are. However, I do think that this is the wrong time to be doing this, as having this discussion in the thread right now will probably hurt the town, for reasons that should be clear to you.

[Yosarian2]

If voting,

unvote, vote: Yosarian2.

100% is pretty good.

Did you notice he's not voting me right now? He's wrong, and it's not something that should be discussed today, which he agreed with. If you're pro-town, you need to let this go for now.

As for Tamuz, he said yesterday that he's not getting role-based information anymore. So why, exactally, are you voting for me?

[Yosarian2]

Edit: to be clear, that last question is directed at Tamuz. If you claim you're not getting role-based information, Tamuz, you can't just say "vote yos" and expect everyone to follow you. So do you have any reason for voting me?

[Yosarian2]

(sigh) This is moving too fast, and no one has given any reasons at all. I guess I'm going to have to give a partial claim. So, fine. I'm a mason.

I'd rather not claim the flavor of the mason group today if I don't have to; I believe I have a good reason for holding back this information for the moment.

[Yosarian2]

Actually, I doubt SW is scum. He could be, but I don't think scum would play this the way he's playing.

[Yosarian2]

Yos are you a neutral?

Nope.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote, Vote MMOD

What an utterly unhelpful attitude.

I think I'm going to have to agree with Mr. Buddy Lee here. You vote someone if you think they're scum. Voting for someone because you "don't like their attitude" looks suspiciously like a scum trying to find an excuse.

vote:cyan

[Yosarian2]

Alright. Channel Deibird did defend Mariyta yesterday, and I'm sure that Mazrim Taim must have been scum of some kind. I'm pretty happy with a

vote:channel deibird

.

[Yosarian2]

Eh...not a big fan of lynching the claimed doctor right now. Guess I'll go back to my cyan vote.

unvote:channelDbird

vote:cyan

[Yosarian2]

Well, it's pretty clear that Nynaeve was a doc; Yamahako basically said as much. The question is, is it probable for there to be two docs in a large game.

[Yosarian2]

I'd agree that this claim isn't compleltly convincing. ChanelDbird could very well still be scum. Still, I'm reluctent to lynch a claimed doc without some stronger evidence then what there currently is against him, especally this early in the game.

[Yosarian2]

Yos, someone said they're 100% sure you're scum, and yet you're not voting for them. I find that unusual. Do you think they made an error in judgment, or that they're scum?

Could be scum, but I don't think scum would come out and say that in that manner about a good guy and attract that much attention to themselves at this point in the game. I think it's more likely a mistake. Either way, it's something to sort out later.

[Yosarian2]

The flavour seems more like untargettable then doc to me. I am hesitant as everyone else is, to lynch the claimed doc. I, however, don't believe that there are two complete docs in this game, and my vote will stay here for now. I really don't have time today to review anything, sorry about that.

Well, the flavor does make some sense; Luca did hide Matt and associates in one of the recent books and probably saved his life in the process. I think he did the same for someone else earlier in the books, but it's been a while since I read the earlier books in the series, so my memory's a little fuzzy on that.

I don't really have a problem with the flavor of the claim. I'm naturally inclined to doubt any "don't lynch me, I'm a doc!" claims, and again it's not common to see two full docs in one game, but I don't think it would necessarally be unbalanced in a large game.

[Yosarian2]

I don't think there are collars, honestly.

I want to put something out there in case I get ganked one of these nights:

Not this past night but the night before, someone tried to put a collar around my neck but I broke free. I suspected yesterday that Tamuz had been a victim of some kind of mind-control collar, but I guess that wasn't the case. If anyone else had the collar incident happen to them, we might want them to speak up now.

Do you think Mr Buddy Lee was lying, then?

[Yosarian2]

I think we should have Yos2 tell us how many more members are in his Masonry, so scum cannot fake to be in it when (if) all the members die.

Including me, there are currently 4 people in the masonry. However, it looks like it won't be entirerly clear to anyone but us when a mason dies, as the mod's not revealing roles and the flavor appears to be a little ambiguas, so I'm not sure how much that will help you.

I should also mention that we do have a reason to suspect that there might be a scum mason in our group, although that's just speculation right now.

[Yosarian2]

Heh...actually, Nynaeve and that group did use a collar on a Forsaken One at one point in the books, in order to force her to teach them different ways to channel, but for the most part I would agree that we can probably rule them out; if anyone's using a collar, it's probably the Seanchen, or however you spell that.

There's a couple of possibilities that I see to explain who we've had 2 nights where there was no report of a collar.

1. The person using the collar is some sort of recruiter. If this is the case, then any attempts to coller that

succeeded

would not be reported in the thread, for obveous reasons.

2. Alternatly, if the person using the coller was someone who was searching for a woman who could channel, then if they succeeded once, they would probably stop searching (and probably gain some kind of advantage, most likely an anti-town one). So, for example, here's one hypthetical situation. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that it was fairly obveous to everyone after day 1 that Yamahako was Nynaeve (I suspected he was, for one, after the way he attacked the other person making a Nynaeve claim), then it could be that the coller person targeted him night 2, succeeded (as Nynaeve is certanly a woman who can channel, and thus could be collared), and Yamahako, of course, died before he could say anything in the thread about it. If a searching role found a woman who could channel, then that would probably be the last collar we'd hear about this game.

3. There could be some sort of role-blocker or something, or the people who were targeted night 2 and 3 could be dead, or any number of other "normal" factors involved in mafia games.

4. And, of course, it's quite possible Mr. Buddy Lee lied, for some mysterious reason.

[Yosarian2]

Also, you're right that it was obvious that Yamahako was Nynave..actually, I thought that I remembered him coming forward and saying exactly that at some point, but, I could be mistaken about that.

Not quite, but he did attack the person claiming Nynayve quite a bit, and when someone else asked the real Nynayve to please stand up (I deeply apologize for that joke), he pointed out that Nynayve should not claim because she's probably a doctor. He never quite claimed, but I thought it was pretty clear.

[Yosarian2]

I'm not sure if it's the right time to come out with this info, but w/e. Before this collared thing gets anymore guessed upon about it stopping, it hasn't. I have role-based information that Babyjesus was collared before he died on night 3.

Interesting. Any idea what that means? What does being collared do?

[Yosarian2]

That makes him MORE suspicious, I'd say. He defended all the non-towns, and in an effort to look more town ratted out his mafia buddy.

CD WAS scum right? His claim didn't match up to who he actually was.

Padan Fain has to be a bad guy flavorwise, can't imagine there'd be any question about that, so yeah, CD was scum. No question. The only problem with your theory is, I think it's more likely CD was a SK then to be part of a mafia; there was a point early in the books when Paden Fain he was a darkfriend, but for most of the series, he's been tainted with a different kind of evil, and has been basically on his own.

(shrug) If someone attacks a SK, it dosn't really say anything at all about their alignment.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Well, it's possible the black ajah and the forsaken are one group; the black ajah we've seen in the books have generally been pawns of one of the Forsaken or another; I wouldn't be surprised if there was one single darkfriend scumgroup. If so, it's possible we wiped out that entire scum group, or there might be more left in that group. 3-4 forsaken and 2-3 black ajah, as the main mafia group, perhaps?

I still don't think the people with the collars could be just a cult with no other powers, though. Unless half of the town are women who can channel, there's no way they'd be able to get a majority by just recruiting women who can channel.

[Yosarian2]

Oh, I believe a collar failed on you, Mr Buddy Lee, now that MMOD's backed you up on that one. Of course, that does not prove you're not scum; after all, scum usually can't be recruited.

I think the collar is a type of cop
Much like the man in the gunsmith shop
They may be a person we don't want to stop.

Possible, I guess, but just from a flavor prespective, it seems unlikely to me that the person or people looking for someone to collar has the town's best interest in mind.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, first of all, I have no idea what the person I replaced said, or when he said it. I am, in fact, Merilille Ceandevin, and Illumina is telling the truth about the number of people in the mason group.

He is right, there are only 3 masons left alive. When I was asked how many masons there were, I said that there are currently 4, because I had forgotten that Baby Jesus was now dead. That was my mistake.

I'm rather disturbed that Illumina has claimed the flavor of our mason group, and listed all the members, when there is a group out there that is apparently attempting to find and collar women who can channel, like us. I have trouble imagining a more anti-town act then what Illumina just did.

I mentioned that I thought there might be a scum mason, but I never said why. The reason, clearly, is that on day 1, we had a mason die who turned out to be black ajah scum. I didn't say this earlier, because of course I didn't want to reveal that our group was the aes sedi. We have no idea how many black ajah there might be in our mason group, of course. That might have been the only one, or there might be another one; there's no way to know.

Last night, I tried to PM spamwise to find out why he wanted to lynch me yesterday, so we could hopefully sort out whatever the problem was at night instead of doing this in the thread, where this information will clearly help the scum, but he never responded to me at all, which I do find rather suspicious myself.

Again, I have no idea what my predecessor PM'd to anyone, or why.

[Yosarian2]

Thx for the explanation PJ. Now, I'm 90% sure that the collars are used to control (or stop if they can do that) channelers and that I'm 60% sure that when xGreyJoyx claimed his name he was neutral and now Yosarian is probably scum of some sort, if what Illumina said about xGreyJoyx claiming to be black ajah (from what I gather is scum of some sort in the book) and Yosarian claiming to be someone else.

That dosn't make any sense at all. It's completly obveous that if Alvarian was actually in the game, she would be scum; not a neutral, not a good guy, but scum. Especally since we already have two dead people who are black ajah, one who was in the mason group and one who was not, I don't think there's any question but that a black ajah would be scum. Again, i have no idea if XgreyJoyX actually claimed alvarian; if he did, I can't imagine why, unless he was doing something dumb like trying to get a reaction out of TSS or something. There's no logical reason why xgreyjoyx would have claimed to the rest of the masons to be a black aes sedi if he actually was part of a black aes sedi scum group, that's for sure.

If he did actually claim to be a member of the Black Ajah, I also can't imagine why the other masons didn't try to lynch him much earlier in the game.

Again, I can't guess what might have been going on in his head, and I don't even know if he really sent a message like that to TSS. If he did, I can't imagine why; but like I said, I also can't think of a reason a scum would do that either. This whole thing just isn't making any sense.

[Yosarian2]

We have three Masons who think they have a scum mason within them (treachery is afoot!).

Three masons who that think there be a scum mason within the group. We know that there was apparently one scum mason in the group who died on night one, and in a group of 6 masons, it's quite possible there's a second. We don't know anything for certain.

Anyway, I'm still confused by MMOD's comments. We KNOW that there was a black ajah sister who died night one, and who was therefore most likely a scum mason. He's insisting that there's a "neutral" mason, whatever that means. One mason, or more then one? Could it be the one who already died, or do you have reason to believe there's another one?

[Yosarian2]

Look, I don't know what happened in the masonry discussion night 1. I have absolutly no idea what a person who's not even in the game anymore may or may not have said at night in private to someone else who's been dead for days and why he may or may not have said it, and neither do you. All I know is what I got in my role PM. There's hardly even been any mason night discussion at all, at least since I've been in the game.

I still want to know where you're getting this idea that there might be a neutral in the masonry.

[Yosarian2]

Yo, I'm back. I'll try and clear up everything today, hang on whilst I read.

Ok. Could you please explain to me what is going on here?

[Yosarian2]

I say we give him one more day and then we kill him.

vote:Mr.BuddyLee

[Yosarian2]

As I've said multiple times, I have no better idea of what happened day 1 then you do. Depending on what Spamwise says, I might become more suspicious of Illumina. However, I am finding it very suspicious that you now want to end the day without hearing what spamwise has to say, even though you yourself have pointed out why that would be an anti-town move.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian claimed Merilille, which is different from Greyjoy, who claimed Alviarin.

Ok, that's...just bizzare.

Does anyone still living have an actual copy of this supposed PM from grayjoy? I'd like to see the context in which he said that, so I could try to figure out if he was making some kind of stupid joke, or if there was some kind of wierd misunderstanding, or something.

[Yosarian2]

In past games I've played all night-coversations, if recorded, were given to the replacement, or the general gist of it.

Well, that's clearly not true here. Ask the other masons; no coversations have been "recorded" by the mod.