Brightest Day Mafia, Part 1 - GAME OVER

[Kdub]

I'm here, it will probably take me a couple days to catch up.

[Kdub]

Well, I have only read up to the first lynch on D1 so far. I hope to get through the rest of the game this weekend. However, since I've been asked to claim, I will do so.

I am Guy Gardner (1-shot PGO Vigilante). I am a member of the Green Lantern Corps. The way my role works is that the first time someone targets me with a night action, they die. Once my PGO has been used, I get a one-shot night kill. According to the messages that inHim got (the mod forwarded them to me), I lost my one-shot PGO on N1 (doesn't say who targeted me), and inHim used the vig shot on Peregrine on N2.

I am aware that inHim fakeclaimed miller at the start of the game. I assume this was to prevent investigative roles from targeting him and dying.

[Kdub]

So I'm almost caught up, though I admit I started skimming partway through D2, otherwise it would take me too long to try to process everything. I'll hopefully be done tonight or tomorrow. Cliff notes like the ones Andy just posted would be helpful considering all the claims we've had.

[Kdub]

OK, trying to figure this out.

From the last few pages, I gather that the White Lanterns are NOT confirmed to be non-recruiter, only that they are unlikely to be the recruiter, correct? Was the basis for that reasoning based on setup speculation, or was it something that the WLs did not want to disclose at this time? Also, the WLs are still potentially recruits and/or mafia, correct?

So let's see if I've got this right:
Kast - possible recruiter
Andrius - not recruiter via tans's N1 action
Magister Ludi - possible recruiter
Blackberry - not recruiter...I forget why?
hiplop - probably not recruiter (WL)
Mr Subliminal - probably not recruiter (WL)
ToastyToast - possible recruiter
vezokpiraka - not recruiter because N1 action was confirmed
tanstalas - not recruiter because N1 action was confirmed
Nikanor - not recruiter via Toasty's N1 action, plus WL
zMuffinMan - probably not recruiter (WL)
Kdub - not recruiter obviously, but objectively nobody has cc'ed my N2 vig
Oversoul - not recruiter via vezok's N1 action

Someone remind me why BB can't be the recruiter again?

Assuming that list is correct, it's down to Kast/Ludi/Toasty. I think it's unlikely to be Kast. For him to claim vanillaized either means he actually was vanillaized (I doubt the recruiter can be vanillaized for balance reasons) or that his faction was responsible for the vanillaizing (I don't see cult having this power in addition to recruitment).

Ludi's color changing claim is weird, and his doctor claim is unverifiable. I have no flavor knowledge outside of what I gathered from BNM and this game so far. What do some of the flavor experts think about his claim? If Ludi is the recruiter, Nikanor or Andy look like possible recruits.

Toasty's jailkeeper claim, though non-standard, was verified by Oversoul, correct? If so, doesn't that mean the only way Toasty can be the recruiter is if Oversoul is a recruit?

POE suggests Ludi is the best bet for CR. If we lynch him and he is not the CR, then we need Toasty and Kast to be blocked/delayed/whatever tonight, and it would probably be a good idea for the mafia to kill one of them for their sake as well as ours. If Ludi is the CR, we should figure out actions to try to confirm people as non-mafia.

If one of the claimed WLs is actually the recruiter, well we can blame a loss on them for being stupid and leading us to believe otherwise.

VOTE: Magister Ludi

I'll be back later tonight.

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:

We still have time and we should try to figure out a plan. Once we do, I'll put my vote back on unless an argument for a better lynch candidate surfaces.

[Kdub]

Mr. S, can you explain the reasoning behind each of those actions for the plan?

I have follow-up comments, but I'll wait to hear your explanation.

[Kdub]

...

OK, question for the White Lanterns. Given two CR suspects of equal scumminess (with no other players being possibilities), with one being a WL and the other being a non-WL, what is the % chance you ascribe to the WL being the CR? How "clear" the WLs are is really the key here. Because Mr. S last post just gave me some major reservations about what I've been thinking.

Gonna be offline for a little bit, be back in maybe an hour.

[Kdub]

@Kdub:

The plan is:

Toasty jailkeeps Kast
vezokpiraka delays Kast
Andrius roleblocks Mr Subliminal
Oversoul tracks whomever the fuck he wants
Blackberry investigates whomever the fuck he wants
Nikanor, MuffinMan, hiplop do whatever the fuck they want
Someone gives us a ring

What if we lynch Ludi and he actually is the recruiter as you think he is? What is then plan then? When I first saw this post, my thought was that you already knew that Ludi was going to flip non-CR and setting up actions based on that. After thinking about it, I've backed off from that sentiment since I could see town only planning for worst-case scenarios (still bad, but plausible), but it still makes my gut churn a bit. In any case, the real issue is that any plan we come up with needs to account for all possibilities, including whether the player we lynch actually does flip CR or not.

Ninja'd: Eh probably like 60-40? It all depends if the recruiter/mafia got fake claims, I guess. I highly doubt ANY of my WL buds are CR <3

60-40? If that's true, then we have an even bigger problem. That is nowhere near as "sure" as I thought you guys were about being confirmed, and the WL thing was pretty much the only reason I focused on Ludi/Kast/Toast. Do the other WLs want to comment on this? Of the WLs, Nikanor is confirmed non-CR by Toasty's action. Is there any non-WL reason for Mr. S, hiplop, and zMuffin to be cleared from being the recruiter?

[Kdub]

Honestly, if Ludi is the CR, then I think the game is just sewn up.

The best case scenario I see if we lynch the recruiter at some point is 3 scum left - 2 mafia, 1 cult recruit. That would be out of 11 players, assuming the mafia kill someone at night. I'm guessing mafia have 5 members for balance reasons. That's a decent spot to be in, but hardly "sewn up". Also, didn't you say earlier that you thought a backup recruiter or the cult starting the game with a recruit was likely?

Regardless, I'm revising my list of possible recruiters and not making any definitive assumptions about WLs except that there's a somewhat less likely chance that they are the recruiter. So we have: Ludi, Toasty, Kast, Mr. S, hiplop, Blackberry, zMuffin. Now, somebody tell me if there are any objective reasons (based on claims/actions, etc.) why any of those players

can't

be the recruiter. Saying "they have played like town" is not an objective reason, but I will deal with those judgments after I have eliminated everyone else I possibly can from contention. The WL thing is no longer an objective reason given hiplop's "60-40" statement.

As far as coming up with a plan for tonight, I'm leaning toward completing the mass claim with the caveat that people don't claim whether they are unrecruitable or not. That still keeps the cult in the dark in case we mislynch, it's not like an unrecruitable claim is going to affect how we arrange our night actions anyway.

[Kdub]

Blackberry, tell me why you objectively can't be the recruiter.

I still am in favor of completing the mass claim as per my last post.

[Kdub]

Guys.

Mass claim.

Why are we not finishing it?

[Kdub]

kdub: We are confirmed tracker. Unless CR can track and recruit, and on the same night, we are confirmed non CR.

Fair enough, the vanillaizing thing already made me doubt you as a recruiter, but that plus the tracker thing does appear to confirm it.

If CJ/Ludi flips CR, trackers should consider blocking kdub in case he is SK.

If I am an SK, then by claiming that my vig was one-shot, I basically can't kill anymore except in a 3/4-player endgame scenario or else I will expose myself. Since I wouldn't want to do that if I were an SK, it stands to reason that I would not take an action tonight anyway even if I had one.

Especially with hiplop and Nikanor.

Nikanor is confirmed to not be the recruiter, but he should still claim with everyone else.

[Kdub]

The point of massclaiming is not just to give more info on the recruiter suspects, it is to work out a plan for after the lynch so that we can direct roleblocks onto the biggest threats and lock scum into claims right now. So yes, Nikanor should claim along with everyone else.

Mr. S is claiming vanilla with some other unspecified anti-cult thing. That's fine by me, people shouldn't be claiming unrecruitable or anything of that sort. Let's hear from the others who haven't claimed yet.

[Kdub]

I'm not voting until we get claims from those who haven't done so yet. I believe that would be Nikanor, zMuffin, and hiplop.

[Kdub]

Muffin/hiplop/Nikanor are non-mafia, non-CR. We do not support a hiplop lynch.

Sorry, but after hiplop's "60%" statement and Nikanor's willingness to vote a WL, I do not put much stock in the WL = non-recruiter assertion anymore.

-Do you actually suspect any of the WLs, or are you just asking for their claims for the sake of having a mass claim?

Like I said earlier, the point of massclaim is not solely to determine who to lynch. It lets us figure out a plan tonight and locks scum into fakeclaims NOW rather than tomorrow when they can use info from whatever flips/actions to sneak by.

If WLs are on the table as potential recruiters, then yes, I think we need to consider them as suspects. Nikanor is the only confirmed non-CR among them.

-My brother said it, but I want to emphasize that Kdub as SK claiming to be a one-shot vig does NOTHING in the event that you are actually an SK and continue killing afterward. There's no traceability to the NKs; for that matter we don't even know how many NKs there are. Plus if you are an actual vig, you should claim 1x even if you have more shots since it'll screw with scum. If you got somehow caught killing someone, you could easily fall back and claim that. We've played together in games where this same issue was raised so I know you know better. Point stands that you are a good target for town RB/JK/Delay effects.

Fair enough, although it's pretty obvious that if there are multiple NKs at any point in the future and nobody claims them, there will be a ton of heat on me. If you want me blocked tonight just in case, that's fine, although I claim it will be a waste.

Let's say we lynch either Ludi or Mr. S today. How about this for a plan:

Ludi/Sub flips CR:
Toasty jailkeeps hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin
Andrius blocks me
Oversoul tracks Kast/tans
vezok delays hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin
Blackberry investigates hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin

Ludi/Sub flips non-CR:
Toasty jailkeeps Ludi/Sub (whoever we didn't lynch)
Andrius blocks me
Oversoul tracks Toasty
vezok delays hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin
Blackberry investigates hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin
(Ludi investigates hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin if we didn't lynch him)

I think those actions should give us some good info and cover most of our bases. Obviously, if hiplop/Nik/Muffin want to claim, it could change things. Thoughts?

[Kdub]

Good game. I think the cult balance was actually quite OK. I don't think it was especially unfair for us, we just got unlucky with night actions on N3. I still would have preferred a recruiter+backup or two co-recruiters, but it's a minor point. I guess the WL powers might have been a bit much, but they never really came into play so I can't comment on how balanced those might have turned out.

I do think the mafia were a bit too strong. They played poorly for the most part in the early game, yet still probably would have won if not for Killjoy. I think having 5 mafia instead of 6 would have been decently balanced with the powers they had.

Regarding safeclaims, I am not a flavor expert so I can't comment on how good/bad those were. I think it is a legit point that in a vanillaless game, the scum need to have stronger ability safeclaims than normal. If I were designing this game, I would have strongly considered putting duplicate town PRs in the setup. That opens up any plausible pro-town role as a believable fakeclaim for the scum. It's a mod meta thing that I think theme mods should do more often. Once you've put duplicate PRs in one of your games, players are aware that all future games you run might have doubles (even if they don't), so it buys you a lot of freedom in what safeclaims you can give the scum.

There were some minor modding issues that have already been mentioned here and in the dead thread. The late modscene after Ludi's death, non-standard NAR, me being told about my winning chances when I replaced in, etc. None of those things ruined the game, and I still had fun, but it's worth pointing out for future reference.