Toy Story Mafia (Day 9)

[Rainbowdash]

Ok everypony, a few of you had made this game very difficult to read since you post way to much filler, actually just one of you but the same problem exists. This person is also very likely town given a few of their posts, and you ponies would be much better off if you would listen to glowball more.

First things first.

Umbrage is scum, from out the gate he is scum

Very aggressive, when called out goes 'oh well this is the way I play making opinions known is protown' blah blah blah. He's trying to be Alpha Dog, and this early in the game I find that rather suspicious.

Being aggressive is not, nor has it ever been a scumtell but a playstyle tell. The fact that he is pushing this as a tell is in itself a tell. He continues to miss the fact that you actually need someone to push pace of a game too, or it has no direction and stalls out early. The game needs someone to take reigns, its better if that person is town, but I would rather be replacing into a game that scum did this then one where everyone sat around twiddling their hooves.

That's drenched in scumminess. Only scum care if it looks like they're buddying.

He misses another simple point here of scum only are nervous of being tied to other scum, so unless he is calling for a FA partner, this is very moot. Infact scum love it when they look like partners to town, so why is FA scum? This question goes to EVERYPONY who is harping on her for this null to town tell.

Glowball oozes town btw. Bobsnox is also scum, but I doubt he's on the same team as kendall. Everyone else is null and posting too much. Chill.

This one is argueably a scumslip even, as he is already assuming that we have two teams when I see nothing in the flavor that suggests a multi-scum setup. I would even say this is more likely a single scum faction setup for reasons that I do not wish to disclose at this point but will become obvious as the game progresses.

More scum reads to come tonight with all likelyhood. Probably in a few hours even.

Unvote
Vote Umbrage

[Rainbowdash]

Going to get dragged away, but at this point I will say other scumreads are Beefster, Nintendo and jmurph, who I know only has a couple posts but they raise my hackles beyond reason.

Beefster in his recent catchup is all over the place with kendall, but he isnt focusing on anything except for kendall. For the most part he is just parroting other peoples reads and not explaining why they are scumtells, infact half of his tells are apparently null tells since they are listed as newbtown/scum mixes. There also is apparenty a running tally or something for scumpoints which is why he is voting kendall, I would love to see this complete list if it actually does exist.

Nintendo is more gut. I just don't like the way he approaches kendall compared to most of the rest of her wagon. A very nice bulleted case would be good to see from him here.

Jmurph did the semi-reliable double random vote tell. The time the second vote occured though the game was underway enough to make it stick out. Just the formating and everything of that vote feels far more forced then natural though.

If its not obvious, I am not answering any of those early game questions.

[Rainbowdash]

Being aggressive is not, nor has it ever been a scumtell but a playstyle tell. The fact that he is pushing this as a tell is in itself a tell. He continues to miss the fact that you actually need someone to push pace of a game too, or it has no direction and stalls out early. The game needs someone to take reigns, its better if that person is town, but I would rather be replacing into a game that scum did this then one where everyone sat around twiddling their hooves.

Aggressiveness, particularly early aggressiveness, is a scumtell. Going RARA LET'S GET SCUM is a good way to hide that you're not actually scumhunting.

Nope, null tell. Town and scum both love to take controll of a game because it plays to their wincondition. Kendall is pretty off compared to most people, but that type of aggressiveness induced meltdown is probably town.

He misses another simple point here of scum only are nervous of being tied to other scum, so unless he is calling for a FA partner, this is very moot. Infact scum love it when they look like partners to town, so why is FA scum? This question goes to EVERYPONY who is harping on her for this null to town tell.

I don't think so. There are more town than scum, for scum, tying themselves to a townie means a big sacrifice for a smaller gain. Besides, kendall freaked out when it was still way too early to be concerned about buddying. That's paranoia, and that's scummy.

How is tying yourself to a townie a bad thing as scum? Where is the sacrafice in having someone think that you are parters to town? Its scums best dream to have people think they are partners to him, good scum will actually spend the entire game trying this. Paranoia is also a mild town tell, so kendall is town for that as well.

This one is argueably a scumslip even, as he is already assuming that we have two teams when I see nothing in the flavor that suggests a multi-scum setup.

I would even say this is more likely a single scum faction setup for reasons that I do not wish to disclose at this point

but will become obvious as the game progresses.

The bolded is argueably a scumslip even, as she is already assuming that we have one team when I see nothing in the flavor that suggests a single-scum setup.

There actually is something suggesting single scum faction due to balance ease, and I am not pointing it out yet. Assuming non-standard in multi-scum is not only something that allows scum to introduce suspicion of players to the game as you already are here saying that we should still lynch people who arent partners to a first player.

I feel as if im being ignored, others should be commenting on Umbrage at the very least here if not wagoning him.

[Rainbowdash]

it's very odd that you refuse to answer questions. are you hiding something?

I'm not going to answer stupid questions like "Who is scum". If I think I've found scum I'm going to push on them but I'm not going to push scum reads that I only half-ass believe in.

Without giving us anything though you are removing everyponies ability to be able to get reads on you and other based off what you are saying. The game requires ponies to actually throw out theories and give suspicions, even if they are not a sure thing because that kicks off other theories, and that makes for other cases and soforth. When somepony refuses to give any suspicions, they are going to actively hurt the rest of the town.

If you had to vote *somepony* right now, who would it be. Things along the lines of "I don't know" are not acceptable answers to this question. It's not who do you expect to be voting at the end of the day, but who is your current and subject to change highest scum read.

Hopefully a third active pony here can help in finally dismanteling the kendall wagon.

[Rainbowdash]

Nope, null tell. Town and scum both love to take controll of a game because it plays to their wincondition. Kendall is pretty off compared to most people, but that type of aggressiveness induced meltdown is probably town.

Not newbie town. There's absolutely no reason for Kendall to try and take control of a game this size unless she absolutely has to do so in order to survive. That's why I'm thinking SK over mafia.

How is tying yourself to a townie a bad thing as scum? Where is the sacrafice in having someone think that you are parters to town? Its scums best dream to have people think they are partners to him, good scum will actually spend the entire game trying this. Paranoia is also a mild town tell, so kendall is town for that as well.

Now you're getting into WIFOM territory. Theory aside, I've never seen someone react like that when a player agrees with them once.

Also, paranoia is not a town tell, and has never been a town tell. Suspicion, yes. Paranoia, no.

If you have never seen someone react like that how are you using it as a tell? I see that reaction as more likely town than scum and have explain why. If you are trying to counter this you better be bringing more to the table than that weak stuff, no reasoning and no past experience? Try again. Paranoia is a town tell when applied correctly, no pony, ever, has gone through a game as town without feeling some paranoia over a player agreeing with them, or second guessing their vote, or anything along those lines.

There actually is something suggesting single scum faction due to balance ease, and I am not pointing it out yet. Assuming non-standard in multi-scum is not only something that allows scum to introduce suspicion of players to the game as you already are here saying that we should still lynch people who arent partners to a first player.

HEHEHEHEHHEHEHHHEEE

WHEN DID I SAY WE SHOULD LYNCH BOBSNOX?????

THINK FAST SCUM.

Here

Bobsnox is also scum, but I doubt he's on the same team as kendall.

Think faster scum.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok so the first quote is WIFOM, but the second quote isn't? They're practically using the same reasoning. So hypocrisy on Umbrage's part.

Strawman. You're acting like aggressiveness is my only tell on Kendall.

You are acting like its the best tell you have though.

Hm... I'm going to assume that the picture means "I can't argue with you anymore Umbrage, you're too smart for me, so I'm going to try and dodge the issue with humour". WAS I RIGHT???

Oh no, im just mocking the fact that you have suddenly switched to saying kendall is the SK because its the only reason newbie players would ever be that aggressive.

If you have never seen someone react like that how are you using it as a tell? I see that reaction as more likely town than scum and have explain why. If you are trying to counter this you better be bringing more to the table than that weak stuff, no reasoning and no past experience? Try again. Paranoia is a town tell when applied correctly, no pony, ever, has gone through a game as town without feeling some paranoia over a player agreeing with them, or second guessing their vote, or anything along those lines.

True. But how many town players have you seen get this paranoid DAY ONE?

I get plenty paranoid throughout the entire game but just keep it out of thread so other ponies take more more seriously. Second guessing yourself and wondering why people are making the moves they are with relation to you is something anypony who is competent as town does, and deals with in their own way

And as a matter of fact, I do have past experience that applies to this situation, so you fail there as well. Although I have to remember that 'weak stuff' line. That's gold. I'm just going to shout "YEAH? WELL YOU HAVE WEAK STUFF!" whenever I'm losing an argument now. Thanks for the tip!

WOOSH point dodge! You still are entirely failing to give me refrences to this suddenly existant past game where you have seen this exact thing pan out before, and are failing to explain why its indicative of scum instead of town.

Bobsnox is also scum, but I doubt he's on the same team as kendall.

^ does not equal 'lynch bob plz'. Nice try though.

I always thought saying "Somepony is scum" means that you think they should be lynched. Still this is blatantly setting up possibility of a bob lynch for if kendall flips anything. As I have said, flavor gives away some things that will be brought to the surface later in the game by me or others who from their few posts have obviously seen what I did. Calling two scumteams though is quite likely a slip.

@RM - We are not policy lynching kendall.

[Rainbowdash]

Umbrage is a VI. Ignore him.

If there's anyone we're going to policy lynch, it's him.

That's not that bad.

It's actually more townie for an admittance to sheeping in terms of pressure. I can see how it's scummy, but it's definitely not vote worthy.

That is

not

the case on Umbrage. The case on him hinges around his pushing of kendall on two weak points that he continues to fail backing up despite multiple requests (overagressive as scumtell and not liking people buddying) and his slip saying that this is a multi-faction scum game, which no mod post mentions.

@RM - We do what glowball just said. Keep kendall in check, but just let her do her own thing for the most part.

[Rainbowdash]

Oh no, im just mocking the fact that you have suddenly switched to saying kendall is the SK because its the only reason newbie players would ever be that aggressive.

I find scum, I don't identify the exact species. Scum is scum is scum is mafia is SK.

Scum are always far more interested in finding a SK than town is. My wondering is why you are pushing SK specifically since its really impossible to get a 'must be' SK read on anyone, even if you are the best player ever.

I get plenty paranoid throughout the entire game but just keep it out of thread so other ponies take more more seriously. Second guessing yourself and wondering why people are making the moves they are with relation to you is something anypony who is competent as town does, and deals with in their own way

You're trying to get off topic. We're talking about Kendall throwing a hissy fit because somebody agreed with him. Discuss.

Paranoia, natural. Its a bit much of a freakout, but you can't POSSIBLY think that his reaction is more likely to come from scum than town. Infact you haven't even said why you think it comes from scum at this point, just continued insistance that its a scumtell.

WOOSH point dodge! You still are entirely failing to give me refrences to this suddenly existant past game where you have seen this exact thing pan out before, and are failing to explain why its indicative of scum instead of town.

Oh. I didn't know you wanted a reference.

ISO boberz.

Yay point proven for me! Its a playstyle thing not an alignment thing.

I always thought saying "Somepony is scum" means that you think they should be lynched. Still this is blatantly setting up possibility of a bob lynch for if kendall flips

anything

. As I have said, flavor gives away some things that will be brought to the surface later in the game by me or others who from their few posts have obviously seen what I did. Calling two scumteams though is quite likely a slip.

Heheh... what? Declaring a gut scum read = setting up a lynch? Kendall flipping ANYTHING = lynch bobsnox? You're just making shit up now, aren't you?

What was the meaning of "bob is scum but not with kendall" then? I think ive tapped out every possibility except "bob is not scum" at this point. Was it "I think bob is scum no matter what kendall flips but not enough to vote him upon kenalls flip but at the same time enough to be the only other person [at said time] that I am going to call scum"

[Rainbowdash]

Spent the last little bit trying to come up with a better response to the Spy post than the *brohoof* picutre I always use, but there isn't anything better.

[Rainbowdash]

We could brohoof and kill them in any order really, but I have an ego that wants to be fed and it wants Umbrage dead more due to a stronger read and punishment for mocking me. Not going to cry over DJ first, but I want Umbrage instead.

All we really need now is the rest of the alliance to show and wait for everypony else to just wagon along.

[Rainbowdash]

Lets go back to DJ then I like that.

Unvote, Vote: DonJosh

Seriously vig you better not be cheeky silver just asked for death AND Umbrage wants it too

Unvote
Vote: DonJosh

Logically this first may be somewhat better either way, but my gut still wants Umbrage.

[Rainbowdash]

I'd rather not lynch DonJosh yet because of the fact that he possibly flaked, and I wouldn't want to lynch, say, a Town Cop because they couldn't claim before their lynch. Umbrage is a safer choice.

....how about a bobsnox?

You do realize your case on bob requires a scum flip from DJ, while its a semi-safe assumption, its an out of order lynch. Not at all a bad lynch (behind Umbrage, DJ, Silver, Beefy and jmurph), bigger fish to fry and connections need to first be made.

@diddin - We are not saying lynch him this page, although that would be *so awesome*, you don't go looking entirely elsewhere due to a possible flake.

[Rainbowdash]

Lets go back to DJ then I like that.

Unvote, Vote: DonJosh

Seriously vig you better not be cheeky silver just asked for death AND Umbrage wants it too

Unvote
Vote: DonJosh

Logically this first may be somewhat better either way, but my gut still wants Umbrage.

Hey Rainbow, why did you change to DJ after Spy asked you to? Why not before when I or anyone else was pushing for him? Also, what is your read on Mb53 and Snakeside? Glowball?

After the Spy post, it became far more likely that I was for sure getting my vig on Umbrage, so at that point I became fine with his lynch. Also I realized how much of my case revolved around there being multi-scum, which if is not the case Umbrage isn't quite as scummy although I still wouldn't cry over his lynch/vig. If both are dead by daybreak, I would rather lynch DJ just for that little bit of reevaluation time.

mb is null to slight scum due to me not knowing anything about him but his avatar and "Made stupid vote" in my notes. Other two are town of varying degrees.

[Rainbowdash]

Why isn't Kendall dead yet?

You miss the post where someone daykilled him and he flipped LGM - Town? Please keep up with things better.

[Rainbowdash]

I looked through and can't see inHim being daykilled. Might be 'cuz I'm tired. x) Will reread tomorrow... again.
Why is everything voting DonJosh all of a sudden? I don't think he's done anything too scummy. A bit lurky like me, but that's not a scumtell, it's a way of playing. Nothing I've seen him post is scummy.

Hmmm I need some input:

Is this a cheeky scumbag playing dumb town exceptionally well?

Haven't decided yet, but I think it means no Silver-kendall pairing, not that it was really all that likely before but this just double eliminates it. Not too used to somepony else taking paying attention bait so need to look back at some stuff. This may be a slight town tell at the end of it. At least affirming that Beefy dies before him.

@FA - Well given ponies reactions so far, they are going to assume im an alt regardless of what I say in response to that question. None of that should really change how you ponies judge me though, im a competent player and all of you ponies should treat me as such. Also not voting Beefy over Umbrage and DJ at this point, although he is on the shortest of the short lists. People make good points on DJ, and the memberage of the wagon alone is enough to make me very receptive of that wagon.

[Rainbowdash]

DonJosh

(9)- Flavour Analysis, SnakeSide, glowball, NanookTheWolf, SpyreX, Rainbowdash, Bogre, SodaSpirit17, PeregrineV

The DonJosh wagon reeks of scum. Particularly FA, Bogre, RD, Soda, and SnakeSide in descending scumminess.

This may be one of the most cleverly disguised OMGUS posts I have seen. Soda is the only one who doesn't think you are scum out of your list, and SS is town if Umbrage is scum and two factions exist.

I would be willing to shift back to Umbrage as he continues to preach the two scum faction arguement for no good reason here. Note that figuring this out early would be a goldmine for me in particular given two of my town reads become nearly confirmed town if there are two factions for SUPER SECRET reasons that im sure will pan out in a little bit, like D2/D3 if im alive or not.

Everypony who is taking the noncommital stance needs to stop with it at this point though since the game is well underway. This entails those who are tossing out votes and either not making effective or any cases such as bob, hikari, mb, chk, FC, silver, mike and beefy. Well maybe not as much "such as" then "these ponies exactly".

Really debating moving back to Umbrage though since my town reads that have developed at this point support a multi-scum game, and if there are multiple scum, I can't for the life of me see Umbrage flipping town. Between his kendall pushing, slips saying its multiscum for apparently no reason, and even wagon composition makes me want to go back there. Logic though says other stuff. Need to think about it a little more.

Pedit: But that suspicion list, twitches all over.

@DJ - Thoughts on Umbrage, kendall, silver and chk. Something like a sentance or two on each. Neutral is not an answer I will accept, this is an "If I had to guess" scenario.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, I don't think I've seen your reasons for Silver, Beefy, and jmurph. Can you explain why these are good lynches and why all these are better than a bob lynch?

Actually I have explained Beefy and jmurph already. Both really haven't done anything that has changed my reads strongly although the recent move from Beefy drops him solidy out of todays lynch pool since I really don't see scum trying to lead a countercharge like this day one on someone who is viewed as town by most vocal people. Jmurph continues to bug me in his approach to Umbrage and DJ after what I feel was a scummy first few posts regarding RVS. Most of his stuff just seems to go with popular opinion, not enough to lynch him today but he is going nowhere on my radar.

Silver is probably a victim of working wierd double shift tuesday through thursday this week and next week, and not having my notes on me at all time. I would probably vote bob over silver given his reaction to my claim of kendall getting vigged still smelling slight town.

@Beefy - I am put in an awkward position early on with Umbrage and the two team slip. I saw a few things when looking at posts which suggest more than one scum team if my reads are correct. As I trust my reads, I believe more than one scum team. However I don't believe that Umbrage has this same information because of the timing of his comment, if he has reason to believe it, I can guarentee its not from the same source as mine.

If we end up for whatever reason lynching glowball over Umbrage or DJ it will take you dragging me kicking and screaming across the line, and I can pull really hard in the other direction when needed. The last few posts from Umbrage cause me to return to the better wagon.

Unvote
Vote Umbrage

[Rainbowdash]

@Peregrine - Which of me, Spy, diddin, FA, glowball and hiraki are scum?

Debating stuff. I still want Umbrage dead very soon but the plan, then there is the plan.

[Rainbowdash]

@

Rainbow

: I'm sure scum could do that, if they see others do the same (Ie:Diddin) What did you think of his FoS on you? Was it valid? What did you think of him being sure there are multiple factions? I just don't like that he picked sides when it came to me/kendall. He did that both times, and you know that his points system was bad. Would you lynch Mb53 ToDay?

Rainbow I don't think you got to me on this. Please do.

Well not sure I ever would say a FoS/vote on me was valid. The attack though makes me a little unsure of calling him scum though, I really don't see him doing that as scum opposed to being town. Why not attack someone who would be an easier lynch, when it wouldn't be difficult? Yes I do realize its WIFOM territory, but it feels like a poor town action instead of scum playing it clever. Im not voting Beefy today, also im still not voting mb53 today, not even too sure why you are harping on him really since he slot is just bleh beyond reason. Multiple faction thing still bugs me, but makes me want a dead Umbrage.

At this junction the multi-scum thing really needs to be solved. We also can't quicklynch. Will say that in bold.

We do not quicklynch

I have a very very very good reason asking for this which circles back to dual scum possibilities.

[Rainbowdash]

Hiraki - See problem there is that you crammed essentially an iso case of every post of his down our throats. That is a pain to read, and makes you look really biased (I know, me against Umbrage). I mean, he isn't a bad pick, but I like quite a few more at this point. Just tl;dr it for all of our sakes.

[Rainbowdash]

Hiraki - See problem there is that you crammed essentially an iso case of every post of his down our throats. That is a pain to read, and makes you look really biased (I know, me against Umbrage). I mean, he isn't a bad pick, but I like quite a few more at this point. Just tl;dr it for all of our sakes.

TL;DR

HE IS SCUM.

You are going to do better then this.

Sigh its going to be one of these games.

What amount of bribes/poems/heartfelt wellwishes/lashes with a barbed whip will it take to stop the madness and get in a direction. Seriously now I see the edges crumbling and am fully expecting the world to be filled with sadness.

Problem here is core group getting torn three ways. I mean, Peregrine sorta just screwed this up, but im more or less torn on him. Almost think controlling his "prize" is right, especially if its a kill. Also wondering if im getting a little too zoned in on Umbrage, but its side things that really make me want him dead. One aspect of the setup sharply changes my reads on a few people (if one faction Umbrage is town, two factions a couple others are town).

Spy - If not Peregrine who is the lynch?

[Rainbowdash]

See thing is, im completely willing to give right now, and almost just want to say something along the lines of the following:

1 - Private lynch election between Me, Spy, glow, diddin, snake, inhim and Hiraki
2 - Whoever gets lynched there we all vote together
3 - Game once again unified
4 - I post more pony pictures
5 - Profit

[Rainbowdash]

@all

- Ok. We are done. You are going to just run around in circle fine, im not going to take this sitting down though and if everypony is going to wait for a leader, I have no problem with taking the reigns and not only bringing everypony back together but also getting scum lynched.

We are lynching DonJosh. Period. End of story, cut print, wrap and send the letter on lessons learned about friendship (regarding how friends stick together to solve problems) to Princess Celestia.

After the initial ugly beyond reason post about kendall which he later backed off attributing to playstyle (lol?) not much happened there. There has never been a vote past then, or an attempt to scumhunt unless you say calling Umbrage and jmurph "Trying to hard to be town" is scumhunting. That and some of the early wagons on him are basically all town reads. Seven/Eight reads of at worse null on a player? Fire when ready.

No stances, no cases, no way town.

Spy, help me orginize here. We are taking this game back.

@Peregrine - Tomorrow you fullclaim what power you got and what you gained from it. If its protective me and Spy sure as hell better be alive tomorrow. If its killing and you try and get coy with it, you are going to get lynched so fast your head will spin.

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote
Vote DonJosh

Everypony needs to have that in their next post or a REALLY REALLY good reason not to.

[Rainbowdash]

I am okay with lynching DonJosh because I think he's scum, however Umbrage is a bigger threat. We are talking DonJosh(probgoon or something) vs arrogant Umbrage (probmafPR?). I think we have definitely hit the jack pot finding DonJosh and Umbrage- but I guarantee you the longer we put off lynching Umbrage the harder it will be. Umbrage needs to go- DonJosh is less of a threat.

Umbrage is either getting vigged tonight or lynched tomorrow. DJ gets killed tonight simply for the fact that a single scum game means Umbrage is town, and if a flip shows one faction it means Umbrage is just Derpy Pony.

Move your vote. This game is being unified.

@Hiraki - Why is DJ town?

[Rainbowdash]

@Hiraki - Why is DJ town?

Again.

The case is that he's not supportive, so I last heard.

The case is stupid and/or weak.

I'm not sure if DJ is lurking because he's scum, or because he's getting perhaps 'lazy'.

Reread what I posted. DJ is the play for today.

[Rainbowdash]

You cannot guarantee Umbrage is getting vigged and it is YOUR theory that he can't be scum if there is one faction. I disagree- I think Umbrage is scum- he needs to go NOW. The game is not being unified- I don't follow orders. I am going with my strongest scum read and DonJosh is really just some fall back lynch. GO with Umbrage.

@Rainbow: I'm more for either FA/Umbrage over DonJosh. Don't ask why just reread FA and tell me how asking question and having null reads = town. As for Umbrage the refusal to answer questions, no scum hunt and put a crap case does not = VI.

You two need to realize the biggest thing about Umbrage, which is the only reason he doesn't eat rope today; His slips is only valid in certain situations, and if the situation is not true, it ceases to be a scumslip and actually becomes a serious town tell. We have no clue if there is one or two factions. Do I think there are two? Signs point heavily to yes, especially if my reads are correct. The big thing is though, if there is one faction, Umbrage IS town. Its not maybe, but its almost for sure town.

He doesn't give me the illusion of someone who is very competent, at all. Infact its glaringly obvious he is a VI who probably gets lynched in over half his games and doesn't seem to want to ever get better. This just makes it more likely of a town tell though if there is one faction because I don't think he is smart enough to actually plant a two faction slip as a one faction scum member. Makes no sense especially as anything that can be construed as a slip like that makes it likely for someone paying attention to catch it and him get lynched.

If there is ANY solid evidence that shows two factions, Umbrage is getting wagoned up faster then I can clear the skies, its not here past my reads though. DJ is the lynch because he works both ways, and is legitimately scummy.

@farside - FA isnt my strongest town read, but I don't support a lynch of him right now.

[Rainbowdash]

Everypony needs to have that in their next post or a REALLY REALLY good reason not to.

No, because there is no case on DonJosh. There never was.

Don't try to stop activity. Ever.

GQPoS: RainbowDash

There is a case on him, posted it a few isos ago. What parts do you disagree with? The game is split over a few wagons and its just stalling out at this point, and its time to push the game ahead. No one else is taking initiative so I am. Game on.

Also GQPOS?

@glow - Umbrage called for *two* factions early. That is one of the biggest tells against him that no longer applies if there is only one scum faction. When something like that exists, its time to step back and give them room. Even VI town can be useful, so if the tell becomes a town one instead of a scum one, we act on that.

[Rainbowdash]

@glow - Umbrage called for *two* factions early. That is one of the biggest tells against him that no longer applies if there is only one scum faction. When something like that exists, its time to step back and give them room. Even VI town can be useful, so if the tell becomes a town one instead of a scum one, we act on that.

That doesn't clear him. You are playing really ridiculously if that is all you have. I am NOT letting Umbrage slide until YOU figure out how many factions there are. This game is stalled because Umbrage is the lynch- so mosey on over here and let's get this done!

I can't for a second buy that scum-Umbrage from a single faction early in the game thought that it would be a brilliant idea to say there are two factions in an attempt to possibly get cleared later in the game.

If you can gather up enough support to lynch Umbrage fine I can go along with it, but I really would be happier with confirmation that there are two factions first.

[Rainbowdash]

This is just getting so annoying and I am obviously too invested and pushing too hard. I am just going to be generally unhelpful since you guys want to act this way. This whole "No.No- we're right, your wrong." I don't need the arrogant attitudes. Your reads are no better than mine. I agree DonJosh is scum, but seriously Umbrage is the day one lynch- he won't be easy to lynch later on and at this rate we are bound to lose if that is how the majority views it.

You ever get evidence that there are two factions, I will lynch Umbrage in an instant. Under penalty of my OWN lynch my vote will be there is there is ever obvious information that there are two different factions. Until then though, no.

I don't for a second disagree with him being scum, but as I have said and Spy has said, a big part of the case is that there are two factions. You remove that and there is no way he is scummier than quite a few people, so would not be the lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

Glow - knock Beck off that top list and I really really agree with you, would even say three scum in that second list.

Look, I know im probably frustrating you, but I see this as a very solid tell, and if there is one thing that I won't do is let somepomy who I think is town get lynched. Looking at this there is a change that Umbrage does a very hard swing in my reads, like a top couple scum to medium town. When there are other strong town reads, its not something that I am going to risk losing, as ANY town player is a good thing to have around. This is a difference of opinons of the strength of a tell, I think that its a good one, you don't so we are going to be split and stay split on this.

@Beef - That is not the case on DJ. He made a very ugly first vote on kendall, and later when pressured racks it up to playstyle when he was centering on non playstyle points of a case. It is almost as bad of a jump off the wagon as it was on the wagon. After that he continues to make no solid or explained reads, his biggest case is that jmurph is trying too hard to be town. Thats it.

[Rainbowdash]

First like I said, im like 90% sure there are two factions and Umbrage is going to be dead by end of N2 at the very latest. If we get a flip from something that is two factions, he IS tomorrows lynch outside of cop confirmed guilty.

Is calling him obviously town if one faction pushing it a bit? Yes, but I do still believe that its a town tell and would move a few people above him in lynching order. How about I make you this promise - If you join with us in the DJ lynch, I will not let Umbrage out of my grasp for this game, even if it ends up looking like one faction I will keep an eye on him for as long as I make it. If I don't do this and end up costing town the game, feel free to mock me or blacklist me or whatever you want. Just stick with me today.

[Rainbowdash]

Like what happens if

DonJosh's flip doesn't show two factions...what then?
What if you continuously lynch and there turns out to be one faction?
Then Spyrex gets killed and you get killed
and Umbrage is left- and now you've convinced people that your theory is right when there is nothing concrete about it


You can be wrong- you do realize that, right? I've even thought about it in reference to myself, and to ask me to follow you without concrete evidence of two factions is ridiculous. I am not following some theory on Day 1

-Night kills probably shine light on faction number if DJs flip doesn't
-We evaluate from there. Compare Umbrage to flipped scum and him to other scum reads. Make a decision at that point. Can't say for sure
-People carry on the torch, its up to people to decide for themselves if I am right or not about this. Enough people will have information though that it should all be fine.

I do realize I could be wrong, now you may be asking yourself "But Rainbow Dash! Aren't you the best at practically everything?" Well, yes I am, but I always could possibly be wrong and realize that, which is actually why I backed off Umbrage because I caught myself getting too locked into a tell that I feel is correct but still is unproven.

The game is basically all about theories, and we just differ on this one and it looks like neither of us are going to compramise on it. Continually bashing eachother with it, not going to help at all. Im just happier if I can get more information about a certain player first.

[Rainbowdash]

The scum are among the active players, I'm sure of it.

This is what I meant by the scum being the guys running the show here.

These scum claims given your levels of activity surpasses just about everyone elses, including basically your entire scum list?

Calling level of activity for scum is very difficult as again it will just boil down to playstyle. Regardless of alignment I tend to be pretty active and pushing my thoughts, im sure most lurker scum tend to be lurker town, unless activity is way off the norm for an alignment, its going to be a null tell.

@farside - If you want to try and convince me of FA go for it, but I still don't see myself backing that lynch for the time being.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbow: I explain briefly my reasons for find FA scummy. What part of it do you disagree with?

Just the general concept if that makes any sense, even with "pointless questions" it does actually generate a little bit of discussion, and they have developed reads on some of the poines I was having a harder time reading. If he keeps doing his thing, it will probably continue to help me nail down reads, eventually their own.

Remember what I said about unity being needed though to accomplish greater goals? Im serious about that.

[Rainbowdash]

Fantastic. You're a gracious mod, I owe you one. I'll try to catch up quick but I don't remember us being this far when I was here last.

Quick update.

Town super alliance has decided DJ is the lynch. You should join us. Free pass D2. This is offer expires in two hours.

[Rainbowdash]

DonJosh

(10)- NanookTheWolf, SodaSpirit17, mikehart, Rainbowdash, SpyreX, jmurph3, diddin, FourseenCirumstance, chkflip, inHimshallibe

I am disappoint. This

town

is full of sheep.

So you are calling the entire wagon town essentially?

Ponies being willing to listen stop the game from going around and around and around



and around

and around

and around

[Rainbowdash]

I still don't like the Donjosh wagon. Too much sheeping going on...
How about a RainbowDash wagon?

You keep refusing to give me solid stances on why DJ wagon is bad, apparently given your last few posts its the early part of the wagon you dislike for the playerbase yet you continue to complain about the sheeping aspect of it. Which of the sheepers are scum?

[Rainbowdash]

If its worth anything, I would rather lynch RM than have Hiraki replace out. Might be a good "keep ponies in line" check too.

[Rainbowdash]

How so Rainbow? Exactly what will that accomplish?

Decent lynch
Keeps player I have solid read on in game
Stops others from being unpleasant

Three very good things.

[Rainbowdash]

Really Rainbow. You honestly believe lynching me will stop other players from being unpleasant?

Yes.

Herd mentality in this game is something that can be the towns most powerful weapon which is why im pushing all this unity now stuff. If ground rules are made and enforced, people are less likely to break those rules in the future. Think of what happened if we lynched Peregrine today, no one would be willing to take prize later if they were not on the list. This is what im counting on with a lynch of you, establishing the benchmark that no one is going to be over the top ad hom attacking others, under penalty of being lynched.

This then loops back to herd mentality of being in a situation where anger is not part of the problem supporting more unity amungst decisions and therefore a town where we actually can get more done. Heck ive almost convinced myself to move votes just typing this out.

Decent lynch...meh. I doubt you'll get many good reads off players who've supported or worked against a wagon on me. If you'd like to point out some examples from thus far in the game then sure. But until then, baseless. As for keeping players you have a solid read on, I'm not sure how you could be struggling get a read on me. Is there something you need from me to get a better read?

Im going to ignore the first part since I don't understand what you are saying there, but for the latter half, signal to noise is way off on the wrong side of the spectrum. That coupled with other stuff, you are a very decent D1 lynch, although again not quite optimal, maybe. Need to think on that.

Busy next three days, I should be able to get a couple hours near a computer though, although some may be at work where I can't actually post unless its dire situation going on.

[Rainbowdash]

Blatant sheep of diddin reasonings with this one, but PJ being around is a good thing.

Unvote
Vote Umbrage

[Rainbowdash]

Does that mean you agree with this Rainbow?

Nope, you still are on the tail end of the short list. Just isn't the time to get into this type of arguement.

@Spy - Yes the game needs a lynch. It just keeps changing who it needs to be, at this point its not the pony who will be useful if town as opposed to the pony who is just going to do whatever it is Umbrage has been doing.

[Rainbowdash]

Well the whole "We are past page 40 which means the day really needs to end" thing is a good enough reason to me. Its not time to lynch you yet, something like by N3 works though. We will reach that when we reach it. Right now its Umbrage lynching time.

[Rainbowdash]

So then what's the issue? I'm voting Umbrage, you're voting Umbrage, what's the problem? Its ridiculous that you would attack a player and then refuse to respond to their defense. Especially when its not an unreasonable, OMGUSy, piss-poor reaction defense. So either you can't defend your attack because its crap and you know it, or you're attempting to backtrack on it because its raising attention you did not want.

You want a response? Fine.

You are antagonizing Hiraki in a way that is most likely intentional. Yes that is putting the hoof over the line in the sand. I would always be fine lynching or vigging someone I see as slightly scummy that is detracting from an optimal game state through personality.

I am not saying we should policy lynch you due to being able to get reads on others, its because you are around my #5 scum pick right now. Connections are an added benifit of the situation. Interesting way to try and defuse this attack though, saying you are a good lynch and jumping to trying to defend connections instead of play.

You miss the point of the last question too. I like my read on Hiraki and he actually helps my reads of others, which is why I wanted him to stay, to keep those reads going strong.

And hey, im an attention whore. I mean, it is RAINBOW dash, that kinda sticks out at you.

@Umbrage - Don't flatter yourself.

@FA - Umbrage is scum for previously mentioned reasons. Comptent player replacing into the DJ spot just means we lynch him now instead of later.

[Rainbowdash]

Oh yes. Remember what I said about no quicklynching? It still holds true.

I know given all I have said it might sound wierd to return to this, but I want, neigh (lol), need to see a couple peoples reactions to this since it loops back to the couple ponies I was talking about where Umbrage-scum makes them nearly confirmed town. It may extend further than just them, so want the chance for them to prove it without me knowing who they are. Im guessing im good to go in about 24 hours.

[Rainbowdash]

Got main priority done at work
Everypony I wanted to post has posted
Fakeclaim busted (was there really any doubt?)

Day is looking up!

[Rainbowdash]

And to think I spent all that time preparing funeral arrangements.

You got two acceptable ponies on that list (FA and BD). Rest are all leaning town to various degrees.

Loving the double vig kills.

Vote mikehart

Need to dig around to see what ponies hit the big town tell that is now out there.

[Rainbowdash]

Donjosh ====> Flavour======> Ray All Need To Go

Yeah we aren't lynching DJ/PJ. Remember I said there was a town tell that opened up sometime between end of the first day and opening of the second day? I haven't gone way back yet, but PJ hit it during the very tail in of when it was valid, so it weaker but there. Just have to go back and see if anypony hit it when its super solid.

Also seriously you two? Claim was really obviously fake, didn't need you two to bust it. Early move today is to mike.

[Rainbowdash]

You have been wrong adamantly so - you will not be listened to.

Yes but unlike somepony I can get stuff done, so will be listened to either way.

Seriously, you better give some actual reasons behind that list of yours if you want those wagons going anywhere since those are all slight town and lynchbait-town reads in my notes except for the two I already mentioned.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm waiting for a pony to bring me rainbows that make the world make sense.

Towntell is rough to figure out, and I haven't even started combing the thread where it actually is most likely to have exposed itself hard (I think around page 20?). While PJ (not DJ) did drop the tell, its weak because he was the other wagon, I still think that its a towntell though since it wouldn't be too difficult to have started up wagons on others apart from Umbrage, and the wagon was in a state of uncertainty after I jumped on it until it was hammered home in the next swing of votes. It comes down to me pushing on Umbrage for two teams, it really looks like there is only one team at this point. Scum probably would know that there is only one team and would have wanted to manipulate that fact into having someone else go before Umbrage because I had stated that it made him more likely than not town. PJ locked hard into the two scum theory when he came in and started pushing on Umbrage, in a scenario where the lynch was a distinct possibility but not a guarentee. I still need to go back and see what some other ponies reactions to this time was, because I would expect a comparison of DJ and Umbrage wagons, regardless of PJ alignment, to have a higher concentration of scum on the DJ wagon.

Glow claiming not Bo Peep is a little twitch of a moment as well since I actually have word for word in my notes that it would be an interesting gambit to try something like that, but I dunno, still have to say she is more likely then not town, but really needs to be receptive of other ponies giving reads.

@Glow - Chk is town beacuse of his play in response to me calling him out specifically to join the DJ wagon near the end of the day, which he did and then bounced off to push an entirely new path. It was a semi-threat saying that I viewed him as scum by offering him a free pass, as why would I need to offer one to a town read, and he responds by backing out and then pushing something that will likely not go anywhere. That reads as town since scum would have loved a counter to Umbrage (less PJ is scum) and if PJ is scum, I think he would have taken the best of a bad situation and been ready to move on.

@Peregrine - Prize claim and if applicable result claim time

For now though the lynch is mike

Early we get lots of really weak pushes on kendall, to rattle off a few of the fun ones

Four: In my opinion your attempts to seem pro town are over the top and I do find that scummy so there is your pinpoint.

Just because you aren't necessarily being anti town doesn't mean you aren't scummy or can't be scum trying to seem protown. Also, I haven't found all that much of your posting to be particularly good for the town either so your argument is null to me.

She seems like she's worried about being seen as scum and just reiterates over and over again that the scum won't like the fact that she is aggressive and noisy. She strikes me as scum who is doing everything in her power to appear protown instead of just being protown.

Now MAYBE its that I never have understood how anypony can distinguish trying too hard to be town from actually, being town, but this just seems like weak arguements. He just continues to poke at her, and continue to come to the conclusion that she is scummy, yet no vote. Side point, I would be pretty happy nuking the entire kendall wagon from early on, going to have way more than just Umbrage there. At the same time though, she apparently is not scum?

I unvoted to remove my RVS vote and didn't/don't feel that kendall is a good lynch. I FoSed her because I found her play suspicious and wanted some discourse on the subject. I never intended to start a BW on her, but to air out my suspicions. Her reactions still don't sit well with me and I will keep an eye on her but I don't feel she is a good lynch for Day 1. I find her scummy, not scum. There is a key distinction and that's why I am not voting her.

What I really dislike here is that nothing else has happened from mike the entire game. He is entirely caught up on kendall, yet only sees her as antitown/scummy (here I was thinking scummy=scum) but there isn't any attempt to even find other scum. He also seems to keep pushing on kendall instead of trying to direct a wagon off of her which seems to be the thing to do when you don't think somepony is scum.

Eventually part 1, of what ended up being just one part, shows up and we get

Don - scum - too quiet. Minimal reaction to bw which rubs me wrong. Saying "just lynch me" even while town is anti town.

Not sure what makes this different from kendall since both are apparently anti-town. After never mentioning him though, but showing up to jump the big wagon, warning flags go up all over the place. This is another reaosn I really am not gung-ho over a PJ lynch since my current pick doesn't work with him as a partner.

Continuing, there is no more scumhunting, pushes against the group getting prizes, etc. Thats really about it. If you are going to pass on calling kendall scummy but not scum, the entirety of the case that he made or even relative questions ask are all boiled down to a single 'catchup post' in which he calls two people solid alignments and then has four others floating in the aether.

[Rainbowdash]

@peregirne - Why does it matter if I think it was more than one town vig? I see zero reason for anti-town to kill either of those two.

Today we also don't quicklynch regardless of what we do.

[Rainbowdash]

If there's a contest and I see it .. For the record, I will attempt to play for the one time ability. Just saying.

No you won't.

@Peregrine - Is the prize stackable with other abilities?

glows lists are slowly getting better, up to three ok lynches now.

[Rainbowdash]

Because we are actually going to work together to make sure somepony who is a general town read gets the prize this time around.

I want either Inhim or diddin to get the prize. Preferably Inhim. Everyone thinks that he is probably town, his reads may not be my favorite but they aren't horrible. Seems like the ideal pony to pick up something like this to me.

I would be willing to lynch almost anyone who breaks this deal today since baseline behavior needs to be established.

Also Peregrine is likely town at this point. Dollars to apples says all anti-town kills failed. Want prizes spread out though incase reads are incorrect at any point in the game.

[Rainbowdash]

I see that as a fair argument as long as all on board with doing so ... however, some of the pro town reads of players could be wrong ... regardless of who obtains the ability, the mod will be announcing the winner. You'll be able to monitor that player and how they respond with the ability.

Not everyone has the same reads, and no one is confirmed anything until passing.

Does anypony, at all, doubt Inhim is town? No? That means he is getting the prize today. I WILL push for the lynch of anypony else who takes it, I could care less who you are I will do everything in my power so you will not make it to tomorrow if you take the prize and are not Inhim.

@all

- ANYPONY apart from Inhim taking the power results in their death by my own hooves. Got it?

[Rainbowdash]

I am asking for faith in ONE read of ONE pony right now - Inhim.

Could care less, well not really but its all I really need you to agree with me about right now, what you think of my other reads. I really doubt we see Umbrage attack kendall-scum in such a manner as he did, and I already said most of what kendall was doing were town tells. If you think Inhim is even probably town, he is the one who gets the prize since thats going to be the most universal town read in the game I think.

[Rainbowdash]

Yep. Some reads change with flips and other stuff. Inhim didn't though.

Are you disagreing with my read of him? If not im not sure why were are really having this conversation.

[Rainbowdash]

If you take it over him, I refer you to my previous statement about what happens if that occurs. There are two ponies I actually might not snap vote if they take it over Inhim but even then im not too sure I would let them make it far after a stunt like that.

You say he is a town read, everypony else seems to say the game, that makes him the best person to have the power. I don't want anypony pulling the "well I know im town" thing, because nopony else 'knows' that. If you have a power to give to a single player, it goes to the most universal town read, I see no way you can even start to disagree with this logic.

We are done with this debate though I guess. Still stand by previous statements of Inhim gets it or whoever else grabs it is also awarded death.

[Rainbowdash]

It goes to Inhim, I wouldn't be pissed beyond reason if diddin ended up with it but it goes to Inhim since no pony has given me any reason why it shouldn't be him.

[Rainbowdash]

I agree with Rainbow (*gasp*) However ~~mysterious reasons~~:

So, while inHim is tech and p town can we hook up a diddin instead?

I would prefer Inhim, but I really can't argue against passing it off to diddin though.

[Rainbowdash]

Why would we out the vig today now ponies?

I stop posting for a few hours and you really decide to do that?

I mean, Soda was complete vig bait last night, he would have been on my short list for who is going to eat a bullet. You ponies actually wagoning him is just over the top mindblowing. That said I think the watch was a very poor choice of target as well, but can't do anything to change that now can I?

We are stopping this now.

No flavor claim from FA
No running up a claimed vig who killed somepony who was scummy.
Yes to a mike wagon
Yes but a little less yes to a NtW wagon

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow STOP
Stop trying to run things
Your plans don't work
Your reads are off
You are giving me mafia rage!

We aren't lynching FA since that kill was really really really likely to come from town. Statistically I think more likely then Bogre which still I would say was at least 2/3 chance coming from town.

My plan is to not get town lynched today, and im going to follow through with my plan. You jumping on FA like this is far worse then any of my reads have been. Do you really think scum kill Soda night one? What shred of justification can you find for that over me, Spy, FC, and a good half dozen other players?

[Rainbowdash]

We aren't lynching FA since that kill was really really really likely to come from town.

I think that's crap and I don't think you're reading the game.

Unless a second full vig claims, I am 100% sure FA is not mafia, and that transcendes mod meta of making extreme core characters town. This is not an exaggeration at all.

[Rainbowdash]

Unless a second full vig claims, I am 100% sure FA is not mafia, and that transcendes mod meta of making extreme core characters town. This is not an exaggeration at all.

Like a lot of what you say I have absolutely no idea what you're trying to say here.

Will elaborate or not within 24 hours.
For mod meta though, last large theme he ran, four of the five core characters were town (one fakeclaim) and the one is a borderline core character. See Simpsons, all main but Maggie were town, and non-VT. Yes I do mod meta for large games, it was part of my thought process behind two scum teams.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote isn't moving for the time being as I think this over. If FC isn't getting lynched he is on me, Inhim, or diddin for the rest of the game lest I say otherwise.

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote
Vote FC

Yay scum claim.

Still

@all

- We are not hammering until I say so. This will all become obvious later in the game. Anypony who hammers will be lynched the next day. We also need our prize first.

[Rainbowdash]

VOTE: Fourseen

Lucky for you what I needed to happen did happen.

So hah.

Now stop trying to screw me over.

Guys

if

I flip town promise me you kill FA -> Ray in that order

Hah again.

[Rainbowdash]

Uncanny near perfect agreement there

Vote NtW

[Rainbowdash]

unvote
Vote jmurph

NtW gets a pass based on a few things I have recently noticed, there would have needed to be siginificant scum gambling and perfect town PR play to have him make good sense as scum.

@FA - I would be happy with wagons on jmurph, BD, mike, chk and maybe bob. Only problem with bob is he will not be scum with NtW, who I do lean town now, but am not exceedingly sure of. Jackalope wouldn't be that bad either, but I am not loving a wagon on him this instant. Everypony else is town of varying read strength.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, why do you want to wagon Jmurph?

What do you think of Jakalope not wanting to vote Nanook YeSterday but votes him without hesitating ToDay?

Jmurph has the two random votes, the fact that his vote landed on Beefy and then stayed there for reasons that he never elaborated on but mentioned existed.

He makes what looks like a case on Umbrage, but then brushes him off as a VI using some other ponies logic for calling him such, and instead latching onto DJ for a one liner. While continuing to subtely push the Beefy lynch along, calling Umbrage a VI and jumping on the Peregrine hate. Its worth noting that Peregrine is likely town here.

When I push on DJ though, he makes an odd statement sounding like he really was never too sure of DJ, which doesn't add up with him putting out a HoS on him earlier in the day, and that being the last mention of him up until that point. That reads like scum thinking "yay town driven mislynch". There again is more attacking of the Umbrage wagon in continued calling him a VI. Very funny since he is calling meta bad at the same time, which being able to call someone a VI is normally based off of.

Eventually he caves to the Umbrage wagon as it starts going through, but again he is looking for other options lobbing up shots at FC as the wagon rides out.

Now he is voting NtW who I suddenly have reason to think is town.

So that.

[Rainbowdash]

NtW gets a pass based on a few things I have recently noticed, there would have needed to be siginificant scum gambling and perfect town PR play to have him make good sense as scum.

Read as: "I have no good reason to give Nanook a pass but because the popularity of his wagon seems to be waning towards a lurker I'm hopping off".

All gets explained later, but statistically speaking, NtW is likely to be town at this point. There are a few things I have been picking up on and the lack of a second kill means the chance that NtW is scum just crashed out.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah. OKAY Rainbow.

My guess is you'll just wait until everybody forgets so you don't have to "explain".

Cute, but feel free to completely hold me to this. Heck I want NtW flipping scum since it would be good in the long run, especially for me, but there are some things that have happened that make it unlikely for him to actually be scum. I know there are quite a few lines to read inbetween, but im sure you can piece it all together if you actually go back far enough.

[Rainbowdash]

All gets explained later, but statistically speaking, NtW is likely to be town at this point. There are a few things I have been picking up on and the lack of a second kill means the chance that NtW is scum just crashed out.

I'm missing something help a brother out here.

Secret reasons, but I think they are solid enough to call off the wagon for today.

[Rainbowdash]

Hey Rainbow. Can you run by your read on farside to me again? Thanks in advance.

Probably town, stronger then most of my town reads at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok so I am going to claim since I had quite a bit of info at this point that needs to be brought out there.

I am a neighbor in a three person neighborhood, but this is a special neighborhood since we have a joint vig ability and day talk. Each of us submits a kill and the mod randomly selects one of us to have the kill go through. All three of us targeted Bogre N1, that kill was us. Now is where things get interesting, NtW is one of the neighbors. Last night me and the other neighbor both targeted NtW for the kill, switching it off our other target within 24 hours of deadline.

There was no kill though. NtW claims to have tried to kill bob, which he was pushing for N1 but we decided to all submit the same kill eventually.

Thing is, I see no kill as a tell in his favor for being town. With everything regarding killing NtW happening right before deadline, I am not sure scum would have had time to react. Thing is though, even if scum knew that we were going to kill NtW and had time to adjust, the only way to for sure shut down that kill would have been to have a scum doc that protected him. If they wanted to RB me or my partner, there still would have been a 1/3 chance that the kill went through on him, hence all my comments about scum needing to have been gambling for NtW to be scum. Most likely I think is that scum picked up on me crumbing hard, RBed me and I got picked to do the vig, hence no kill.

At this point, I think all of us are town again, like I had for most of the first day. Its also part of what I was talking about with two teams, since I couldn't believe two scum of different factions being in there with me, and couldn't see how one balances out. Even now though, I do not see how it balances well with scum in there, and I do think that NtW is town off the WIFOM that was created from that.

To tl;dr it

I am a vig-neighbor who can daytalk with NtW and ???

N1 the entire group killed Bogre, this means that most likely all scum kills were blocked
N2 no kill happened. NtW said he killed bob. Me and neighbor #2 tried to kill NtW. No kill went through.

To note we DO have a small conditional that needs to be accomplished during the day phase for our power to be activated, which is why I kept trying to slow wagons down near the end of the day. Its fairly easy to get done, but if stuff happens too fast we can miss it.

[Rainbowdash]

@FA - I would prefer to get somepony else confirmed town then myself since I think that I can prove it through actions before game ends, but I would be happy getting NtW copped since it would finally get him out of the lynch pool or clear me and my other neighbor by association.

For character I am one of the Aliens, we use the claw to vig ponies. Oooooooo the clawwwww.

[Rainbowdash]

I don't really think Rainbow is telling the truth.

So the arguement is im scum that is going to have scum partner NtW, and if needed a third partner back up my claim that decided to kill Bogre of all ponies N1?

[Rainbowdash]

Nah, I'm just almost certain there is at least 1 scum in your neighborhood.

See thats what I was thinking for a little too yesterday, hence trying to get NtW vigged. However I really don't think the chances of that are too high for a few reasons. First is balance, how do you balance scum that is supposed to act like a vig but only has a one in three chance of actually having a kill happen that can be on anypony at the risk of outting somepony in the group as scum? Its hard to balance.

Also the result from last night, although if town blocked me it does detract heavily from the NtW protecting I have been doing since I was thinking that in order chances were me/parter got blocked by scum, NtW blocked by town, NtW saved by doc. My other partner I have as a town read though, so I really don't think there is scum in the group. I almost wish there are so it can get cleared from it, but I don't think there is.

[Rainbowdash]

role stuff points against that

Yeah I know. I don't like this role too much, im probably one of the more paranoid ponies to start and now I have to try and trust others that share a kill ability with me. I liked it more when I thought Umbrage was part of an A/B scum faction and just auto-cleared all my neighbors because of balance from that.

Lack of scum actually blocking me, I mean damn FA I actually breadcrumbed entirely because I thought you were a full vig and wanted to wave around a "shoot elsewhere" sign, does take away most of the reasons I defended him.

Stupid role.

[Rainbowdash]

@FA, My bad, thanks.

I 95% believe FA is telling the truth.
75% with Rainbow.

FA is going to be telling the truth. I don't believe anypony thought he was a one shot vig.

For me I don't understand how you think I could be lying about my role, although I can see you not thinking I am confirmed town. There are parts I am not saying right now, such as who the last alien is, what our day goal is, and what we have been talking about more than generalities, but the role is obviously real. Heck I even said kendall flipped LGM (what the aliens were called in spinoff series) when trying to bait people. This would be way to much of a claim to gambit on since one of three getting killed results in all deaths.

[Rainbowdash]

@FA - If any neighbor flips scum the others are both town since the vig ability still is in effect with neighbor deaths. If two were neighbors all scum would need to do is kill the other and they have two kills. I would rather have NtW copped then myself, because if he is town there is a greater chance of him being mislynched then me.

With you being the one that targeted me, it takes away from the NtW town tells a whole lot. He has been essentially dead quiet in the neighbor QT as well since it became obvious we distrusted him. Think all he has said since early D2 was that he targeted bob post D3 scene. That alone make me think he is scum since he stayed out of the discussion area leading up to it. My only fear with it is that he could easily block our ability if he is scum here by failing the day requirements, we cut it close already once when we all tried to do it.

I need to think about this but I want to say lynch somepony like TJ and we will try to vig NtW again tonight without interference.

The other neighbor does not want to be outted. I have been arguing claiming with them since around D2 and eventually just went ahead and did it.

[Rainbowdash]

1.)

If NanooktheWolf is

lynched

, does that

actually

prevent you from meeting your "day requirement"? If your requirement is what I think it is, then because NanooktheWolf will no longer be alive while going into Night Three, perhaps NanooktheWolf will not be considered in whether you met your requirement. I would at least check with the Mod on this point.

Probably. If NtW is town he can still let it go through however since it resolves day phase. If NtW dies it will be only me and the other neighbor who need to complete the requirement subsequent days and the kill chance is split between us.

2.)

What do you think of bobsnox?

I have had him near the tail of my vig discussion list most nights, but I really am not too sure on him. Me and the non-NtW neighbor keep talking ourselves away from him early in the discussion. He is probably not scum with NtW however due to him being the clear first choice for NtW this entire game in the QT.

@FA - If we do not lynch NtW today and we gain our ability, I am going back to a NtW vig shot so no targeting him.

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote
Vote Blonde Doctor

Stalling tactic? Maybe.

Good vote. Yes.

I would also be willing to vote TJ today, but I actually would rather see stuff go thisaway.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, do you and your other neighbor make up for the lost percentage with a Nanook death? I don't see why you would want to kill a vi neighborhood member if you can direct his shot and threaten with a claim. I would rather a controlled town vig option than a weakened, gonna be dead soon neighborhood. Your claim unprovoked is weird as hell too given the strength of the claim. O_o

If one of us dies then the other two both have a 50% chance of the kill going through us. It technically would increase the chance of it getting blocked, but if I think he is scum, which I constantly am going back and forth on here, there is a 33% chance of a rouge shot if he ever feels like it

I wanted to claim today because we know that all anti-town kills were stopped night one and I was thinking NtW was town due to the lack of kill. I said it was something everypony needed to know, other neighbor didn't, NtW said nothing again, so I just claimed it.

@Spy - Why is neighbor copping bad? I actually like the idea the more I think about it. Scare scum into getting rid of us or catch scum clearing the rest of us.

@Oversoul - It goes like this

1) We have daytalk
2) If we accomplish the day goal, we can use the claw. If we don't, we don't get to use the claw.
3) Each of us sumbit a kill, we must kill, no killing is not an option and causes a random target.
4) The mod chooses one of us at random to do the kill, we do not know who gets chosen.

Given that, most probable result from last night was I got picked to do the kill, and was JKed.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote
Vote TJ

I continue to be torn on NtW, but actually prefer this spot for the time being. Will continue to be obstinant over him for a little.

@NtW - If we lynch you today will you still activate the claw for us?

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, explain your vote reasoning to me.

My town reads are voting you
It has the highest chance of accomplishing day goal
I agree with the points against you
NtW wagon looks bad

Also, if you don't want to answer my question, at least let me know that.

I figured that since farside had already claimed last neighbor and I said she was a town read a few pages ago I wouldn't need to. But ok. I have a town read on farside.

[Rainbowdash]

If anypony but diddin answers it I am going to vig them tonight given the chance.

[Rainbowdash]

Well that makes my vig choice easy.

Was not bluffing.

[Rainbowdash]

@Spy - I keep thinking we could easily be all town. There has been a distinct lack of NtW in the thread, but I really don't think that would happen and all of us live, especially when its so justifiable to get rid of myself or farside from NtW-scum perspective. He has had next to zero say on what happens, or even really has tried to have any say. What scum who can control a vig does that? I don't think they do. The more and more I think about it, lack of care about who gets shot is probably a town tell from NtW.

I want TJ or jmurph shot after the Juls lynch.

[Rainbowdash]

I have been chatting with farside again. Im not so sure I want the Juls lynch anymore. I mean, I spent a little bit of time defending the vig shot off of silver N1, all that really changed though is Juls making this stupid move, which was a very stupid move. Unless we are getting rid of NtW though there is no good reason to make the lynch I think. A good point was also raised of if Juls is scum, she is just going to vig town and then we go to night.

I am staying on TJ until further notice.

@Juls - Does this ability stay or is it only for this game day?

[Rainbowdash]

You realize that making buzz lightyear scum would be dumb, you look at the guy's meta if you're really that suspicious, and you move on.

Apart from the massive ammount of WIFOM involved in this statement, we did look at your meta and it looks little more like scum than town PR play.

I don't support him vigging you over most ponies, but I really am not going to argue against it because "Buzz has to be town". I would vig you over a good half dozen ponies in an instant though, and most likely over a few more.

I just can't get over what has become a gut town read on NtW through his recent in thread actions that would be exceedingly dangerous for scum to be taking if the bluff got called. Im not going to vote him.

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbow: in your defense of why you think NtW is town, you keep talking about gambits and such that would be foolish for scum to do. Can you point out what/where these are?

NtW scum in activating claw while letting himself get lynched gives two townies (again, no more than one of us can be scum) a vig that scum would not know who is going to perform the kill, and one of them, me, being very twitchy and constantly changing her thoughts.

I am not sure scum would actually go through with an action that confirms two town and gives them a vig shot. So from that I dont think that NtW is scum, and will not be voting him today.

For Juls I would like to leave her for a mid-late game lynch if that even. After a little QT debate I remembered that I had Silver as prob-town early on in the game due to the reaction of me faking the death of kendall.

[Rainbowdash]

Can I get some other ponies to wiegh in on jmurph?

With the exception of this post

UNVOTE: ,VOTE: Umbrage.

For the record Umbrage is not even close to the top of my scumreads, but at this point I just want this day to end

so damn badly

. I would also consider a lynch on Fourseen, since his whole random "What do people think of me" post seems incredibly bizarre, ill-timed, and scummy as all get out.

she has to be the scummiest pony out there, especially given the stances between Umbrage and DJ. Just that post though makes me think town heavily, and is the only reason I did not vig her N1, and N2. I really haven't gotten the feedback I want from neighbors yet on this, or at least to the extent I want, so want to hear what others have to say at this point.

I just have this wierd gut feeling that TJ is town due to the early posts from mb, whos town reads seem to all have been on town, and was on Umbrage early on. Not too strong of a read, but when I was looking through to pull stuff out to just power this day home, I got a twinge there.

unvote
Vote Mike

Yes I am going back there.

[Rainbowdash]

@mod

- I have little to no access this weekend, I may be able to post but no promises. Should be back Monday at the very latest.

I want a mike lynch. Everything I said about him earlier in the game still applies there. Along with

-Him trying to push FA post vig claim
-Attack on leaders for being leaders
-No strong stances on popular ponies

No pony will hammer again until the vig group gets all of our stuff straightened out, but I would be happy with the TJ lynch in order to activate our power.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote
Vote TJ

Claim.

[Rainbowdash]

3.)

Aliens: Would you mind clarifying if you

know

your neighbors are also Aliens?

Role refers to them as aliens.

I have decided the NtW is definantly town again for special reasons that one of my partners can explain even if I die, that wagon needs to go away. Farside and myself need to start drawing any protections left out there.

Not sold on bob wagon because he claimed BP. Scott used BP townie last large theme. Also its technically a testable role, and the scum role that is usually BP already flipped. I have him as likely town at this point given that claim. For all I know NtW is going to test it again tonight though.

[Rainbowdash]

We are NOT going to lynch NtW. I would lynch nearly anypony before him at this point. I at least want farside to respond in the QT as to why my reasoning is wrong, since im pretty sure posting it here may hoove the line of quoting role info.

Dont 100% buy TJ, but as long as he keeps 'clearing' ponies im ok with it.

Vote Mike

@juls - The kill was on Beck/BD before I moved it.

This is a decent chance of being my last post until late Monday but we will see.

[Rainbowdash]

WE ARE NOT LYNCHING NTW.

PERIOD

STORY IS OVER. O-V-E-R.

Look, what farside said is right, our win condition is messed up since we need a town win AND a secondary thing to win the game. I didn't even notice it until she asked about my win condition in the QT. In what world does the mod make a three pony vig group with one scum in it that the town members can only win if town wins AND one of them survives? They don't or this is so much poor mod decision on a win condition I do not even know where to begin.

If NtW is scum, lynching him is a death sentance to the two of us since it confirms us as town essentially and we both are in a race to win the game before we get NKed. There is no way there is a scum pony that if killed causes two town ponies to probably lose.

Get off NtW. Now. If he gets lynched I will vig somepony on that wagon, and will continue to vig somepony on that wagon until its only comprised of confirmed town.

Lynch is mike, DN or maybe jmurph but I lean her town due to a couple posts.

I may be a stubborn pony but im not a stupid pony. There is no way NtW can be town, farsides speculation of such which is the only real way it can occur requires quite a bit of reaching to accomplish.

[Rainbowdash]

Also hiding pony resolves before blocking pony if I know anything about the way these things normally work.

I would be happy to have TJ hide behind NtW as well, maybe even MORE happy then bob who I think is town either way due to the BP claim with a flipped godfather. Meta says Scott likes putting a mane pony as BP.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm not convinced.

I agree with farside.

Your cupcakes are not even half baked but raw.

In what world does a mod create a neighborhood vig group that at least one town member needs to survive for all the town members to win, and then sticks NON town in there? Not to mention your idea of a mostly scum neighbor vig group.

I know that I have potential to be off at times, as near to perfect as I may be, but this is not even anywhere near a logical line of thought. The train jumped the tracks leaving the station.

Just explain to me how that can balance. How does scum who KNOWS two other ponies who share a vig power with them work when if the town ponies die, they lose the game flat out? I mean, without the win condition thing, yes I can see it work. With it? No. I mean, the chances of us living even with crap read would be low. The chance of us living if NtW flips scum is low to none. It would not even be remotely fair.

I am regretting talking farside out of vigging you already.

[Rainbowdash]

I may be a stubborn pony but im not a stupid pony. There is no way NtW can be town,

This is what I am saying. So we agree?

You know what I ment. Im getting a little upset here since no pony is listening to me about why NtW basically has to be town in this situation.

If NtW is scum, lynching him is a death sentance to the two of us since it confirms us as town essentially and we both are in a race to win the game before we get NKed. There is no way there is a scum pony that if killed causes two town ponies to probably lose.

No offense but your win condition isn't my concern. I am going to vote based on who I can see as scum and right now that is Nanook and Bob. And this quote made me realize something...

It should be your concern because it should give insight to NtWs alignment.

Because the role win condition is a town survivalist role.

One town alien

and a town win is the only way I win this game.

Can either of you verify that it says "TOWN Alien" and not just alien?

It says town aligned, which means NtW is town.

And have you ever considered that Nanook is some sort of modified serial killer / survivor?

No. He obviously isn't a SK due to lack of kill from him if he was. Survivor/vig is basically what we are already, but we need town to win so that probably out.

I am regretting talking farside out of vigging you already.

Is this directed at me or FA?

FA. I think I can get you to listen to me, FA likes doing his own thing.

If NtW is scum, I am going to be really pissed at the mod for giving me a survivor that needs to win with town and scum has extra incentive to kill. So yeah. I WILL vig somepony that voted him every single night for the rest of the game if he gets lynched and flips town.

[Rainbowdash]

Think about it Rainbow.

Theory:
Nanook serial killer who's kill is part of your vig group. If he is the lone member to survive he wins.
Two town who are part of vig group but one of them must die.

The shot is random so it really balances.

I disagree. Again its just so against my win condition to have anypony in the group that is not town. I will not believe it until I see it, and if I see a town flip there will be quite a bit to pay.

[Rainbowdash]

Insert "Member of the Neighborhood" in for "Alien". Even if he is an alien he could be a bad one.

I doubt it. If he is scum the ONLY way I can win is if town wins AND either me or farside survive. Do you realize how unlikely that it? Just think about it, if NtW is scum it gives him incentive to kill me or farside out the gate since it gives scum 50-50 chance of having a second kill they just need to aim at a kinda suspect pony and they should be fine. Also if he is scum, him dying makes the two of us super high kill priority given that it can't be two of us as scum since thats stupid on its own.

He is town, everything makes more sense if he is town because if he is not farside and myself have next to impossible win conditions.

[Rainbowdash]

You have to have 1 left in the end so why in the world do you not want him lynched just to see? Is it at least one or only one?

We need at least one of us alive. Lets make a deal, if we look like we are a day outside of lylo, I will be willing to lynch him. Today we lynch somepony else. Just with my win condition and him saying he will self lynch, that pony is town in my book.

[Rainbowdash]

5) No scum kills on day 3

You are going to have to run that one by me again.

Also we aren't normal vigs, our power can easily not be activated, and the alternate town win condition plays against us.

I would be down for the lurker-mike lynch. DN one isn't that bad as well, but I really don't see all of mike/jmurph/chk town here, I like jmurph as slight town due to that nagging post, and chk I have just thought as maybe town for awhile as well.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, we aren't lynching a lurker. Period. There is too much shenanigans going on.
I will only lynch one of bob, FA, or Nanook today.

You just named three ponies I don't want to lynch.

Bob gets hit by hider tonight, a dead TJ gives us bob-scum, and also gives us NtW town given what has been going on in the QT. FA has been making what I see as subpar moves, like killing N1, but the kill was obviously from town, we almost made the same kill ourselves. NtW is town because of role stuff.

Only way I would be down for a lynch of one of them is if we are lynching bob and TJ hides behind NtW. Even then there are many levels that can turn ugly on us. My only problem with TJ is there is a hider (albeit limited) and town BP in the game game. That makes little sense. I would prefer to not lynch bob, and then lynch TJ tomorrow confirming bob-town-BP or netting scum.

I would vote mike, DN and then maybe chk or peregrine but I really would rather go with one or two here. Short list is very short.

[Rainbowdash]

I could possible be budged on a Deathnote/Hiraki lynch.

Unvote
Vote DeathNote

Challenge accepted.

After the spy post oversoul can join the death list as well. Interestingly enough all three are lurking like pros. DN, Oversoul, Mike. Two will be dead by tomorrow if I have anything to say about it, and guess what, I have at least a 1/3 of that happening.

Would go nearly anywhere to keep the wagon off my big three though who are all inexplicably under fire even post claims.

[Rainbowdash]

I don't think that it is quite time to massclaim, but that probably occurs tomorrow unless something else causes it to become necessary today. Game hasn't stagnented, but its starting to stall out a bit since most early day things came to a grinding halt.

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah that was my initial impression of him too, maybe to a little less of an extent but I had the same thing going on for the most part, especially since he tried to shut down both major wagons and just not Umbrage.

Lets do this instead

Unvote
Vote Oversoul

I feel better about being here, although again there were a few Beef lines that made me think town. Im starting to hit one of those situations where I have too many "somewhat town" reads.

[Rainbowdash]

[none game related]Rainbowdash, my daughter loves to walk up and see your avatar/pictures. She knows all the ponies names. When she sees me reading she excitedly exclaims "RAINBOWDASH!!!!" [/none game related]

Nice to know somepony appreciates me.

If she doesn't know at this point you can tell her season 2 is set to premier September 17th, not sure if its being advertised on TV yet but multiple sites have that date up and have for a while so I think its legitimate. If you watch the show it may be good news to you as well, because really, its not that bad of a show. From the most of the same ponies that did Powerpuff Girls, Dexters Lab and Fosters Home.

[Rainbowdash]

Lets try looking back exactly one game by this mod.

You are Marge Simpson (Springfield Bulletproof Townie)



You are the mother of the Simpson family and the glue that holds the family together.

Abilities: If a kill attempt is made on you, your willpower to keep the family together will prevent the kill. This ability will not work if you are the only member of Springfield still alive.

You win when all threats to Springfield are eliminated and there is at least one Springfieldian alive.

Its happens. We are not lynching bob today either way.

[Rainbowdash]

I don't need awesome promises. No pony should need awesome promises for this given that we already have crushed any reason to back the bob, NtW or TJ wagons. Except for FA, who has decided not to listen to anypony else. We don't need him though.

[Rainbowdash]

So Oversoul has not been ran up to the extent where he would need to claim upon coming off of V/LA tomorrow which I am exceedingly disappointed in.

Everypony just seems to have disappeared recently. When they come back they just need to move off one of the key three wagons that are taking a pass today and onto somepony else, like Oversoul, or DeathNote, or Blonde Doctor. Yes Spy, I am going back there. I looked at it again and have no idea why I back burnered that one really, it still looks really tempting to me.

[Rainbowdash]

@spy - believe it or not, I would be fairly happy having TJ hide behind NtW. I think bob is probably town either way in all of this, so if we can get NtW-town nailed down or caught as scum at expense of a mislynch, or two mislynches NKed by scum at once even, its a good thing to me.

BD - Im a filly, not a colt. That means female.

@mod

- Can a pony submit two actions in one night if they have multiple ones?

[Rainbowdash]

Yeah I think that bob is probably the right pony to hide behind, would like both, but don't really like TJ living that long.

[Rainbowdash]

what the heck is going on with this hiding stuff? <_<

My life is crazy right now. Who's doing what behind who?

TJ is going to hide behind you

Rainbow who are you voting?

Oversoul/Beefy

[Rainbowdash]

Why do I always get lynched on V/LA?

Whatever. Posting reads tonight.

Other than being lurky, is there any reason you guys are voting me?

You haven't really DONE anything this game.

You seem to get interested in NtW, then stop doing so, then call kendall town but are torn, then just talk about my role and speculate about the setup.

[Rainbowdash]

jmurph one reads as fairly genuine to me if nothing else due to the timestamps between when the question was asked and a response was made, short response time means they knew what they were digging up especially since it was not all very recent things. Jmurph is a confusing pony though, I keep going back and forth mostly hung up on one post.

kunkstar is more meh, especially since I have done much better VCA in the neighborhood QT which says something like

At least one, probably two of: PJ, Mike, Kunk, jmurph
At least one, no more than two: PJ, Peregrine, Jackalope

We need oversoul claim at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

Why do I buy that claim?

I dunno. Maybe in part because I don't think scum claims vanilla faced with that situation. Maybe in part because the wagon composition makes me uncomfortable as I really think TJ is scum to the point where without bob I would be happy to lynch him. Something inside me thinks that pony is town though, and my mid-late game read in Beefy was not completely unfounded. This feels different then contact with oversoul-scum I have had before.

Unvote
Vote Ray

Indecisive pony is indecisive.

[Rainbowdash]

Well thats ongoing but if it ceases to be I will explain more since I don't want to get in trouble with mod, more than just that though.

You should move with me to Ray.

[Rainbowdash]

GOD RAINBOW WHY DO YOU HURT ME

The claim feels town. Really town. It set off that little buzzer in my head that tends to precede a mislynch.

And the ponies on the wagon already had me paranoid to start.

Also the VT claim in a situation where its just going to get him lynched probably.

Also throwing out attacks at ponies who have little to no backing for a lynch, only way I think I could of gotten cold hooves faster was if he started on Ray and not DN. That and him calling BOTH DN and Ray scum, when there is no way both of those ponies are scum.

Thinking part of my reason I had Ray as town early was that I was reading an unvote of Umbrage as a vote of him instead. I have reading issues a whole lot as parts of sentances and words don't always show up to me.

[Rainbowdash]

Look, remove meta and I still am not loving this lynch right now. I mean, yes we can do far worse, but we can do better.

Just look at who is on the wagon: Peregrine, TJ, jmurph, kunk. That is like the dead center of my "probably should be dead by end of game" list. I mean, that on its own made me a little twitchy over this wagon, but then a VT claim? Also no other wagon? More signs of a mislynch.

Dunno. It feels like town to me since its basically saying "ok lynch me", as im not sure he would expect somepony, especially somepony who can swing wagons in this game to come to his rescue over it.

Plus his scumlist is so close to what mine looks like. I think we have only a couple ponies who we really disagree on. Thinking like me is something that I am willing to call a slight towntell as well.

[Rainbowdash]

But whatever. Ray is on the shortlist either way at this point for what pony is getting clawed.

[Rainbowdash]

Basically what I read from this is that Rainbowdash is unwilling to compromise on a lynch but expects everyone else to do so.

Yeah this is more or less correct.

I have too many weak town reads and its screwing with me pretty bad right now. Need to just drop a few of them but have a hard time letting go of them.

Just have a few issues with the oversoul wagon. I mean, I can see him getting bussed but the sudden "Here are all my reads" thing makes me a little paranoid since this is not the way I have seen scum oversoul claim.

[Rainbowdash]

Screw it

Unvote
Vote Oversoul

Go for the claw. No pony hammer yet though since NtW still needs to activate.

[Rainbowdash]

I am confused in this game so will just try this concious stream of thought thing and see if that can't snap me into something.

On the nieghbors, I really dislike the role, no offense to the mod or anything like that but this is something that I am never going to be able to perform all that well with because its a paranoia enducing role in that its neighbors and also that im a vig which I would prefer not to be since I would rather see reactions instead of shoot more or less blindly at other poines. Then we have the nieghbor interactions. Heck I almost want to say that NtW is the more likely town one here because of what I said earlier about him willing to activate the claw as he gets lynched which would mean that as scum he is giving town two cleared ponies and they have a vig shot that even with a roleblocker scum would not be guarenteed to stop. Farside I have a town read on, but actually find myself constantly talking her out of killing who I think is town which just causes more paranoia there even though I have to think that we are all town in the end due to the alternate win condition of ours. Given that we are vig-neighbors and not regular neighbors I do not know what the lack of kills on us really mean since I could easily see it being scum not being too afraid since they know what we are thinking or just having kills on us blocked ala something along the lines of the JK from FA on the second night or whatever Bogre did on the first night. So I would say its very high chance that both NtW and farside are town here, argueably higher chance that NtW is town. This is my first time actually saying this to anypony, so im sure that im going to take shit for this in the QT, but ive been thinking about it since early in the NtW wagon.

Then we have the ponies that I think are town. That would be FA for his kill on soda, which was one of our choices for a vig kill. I think he has been somewhat foolish with his actions depending on what he is hiding from us, but its a town role and the one action that is proven in the vig kill as opposed to N2 which could have been blocked off me or bob-BP ate the NtW kill, was an obvious town shot. No way scum or SK does something like that for town credit. It just doesn't happen often enough to even seriously consider.

Bob is town nearly for sure to me, probably second strength town read, which is why I have a little bit of an issue having TJ hide behind him instead of somepony I think is scum, but if its going to be the only way to make other ponies happy with him riding out to the end of the game, I will go through with it. The mod has used the same role in the past on a mane character, the standard scum-BP role is dead, there are THREE claimed vigs alive, I call him town.

Who next? Juls. Silver is town for the derp response to me saying that kendall was day vigged and flipped town. Really think that was just a VI read, and the catchup from Juls makes me think town as well, even though I really disagree with a few of her reads. Not seeing scum who I explicitly just call out for a lynch doing that as much, again I know somepony will cry WIFOM, but based with the inattentiveness of Silver I just think town in the long run.

Diddin I have no damn clue why I think he is town, which is really starting to scare the crap out of me because that tend to be the pony I have been reading wrong the entire game who somehow just got on that section of my list and stayed there. Looking back I should have a slight town read on him at best, he was on Umbrage early, was part of the jump to Peregrine, the jump to DJ, but I guess he was first back on the Umbrage wagon. Dunno, I really have a hard time giving him as much town credit as he has in my notes when I break it down. Sure he is probably town but he isn't as high as I had him.

I still think kendall was town derp. Umbrage never came off him and he actually latched right onto Umbrage as well. I don't think that those two ponies would bus like that especially since Umbrage flipped PR.

Spy gets the diddin treatment yet is more likely to be scum out of the two, why am I calling him town? Probably because he is one of the only other ponies who can get stuff done. Look at the D1 play though - Umbrage starts off behind DJ in suspicion, Peregrine is scum for grabbing the prize. Really not sure where the town actions as opposed to town for getting stuff done comes from. PJ flips scum and he is town though, can kick him up to lean town if oversoul is scum which gut still says he isnt. Dislike his treatment of the Beck/BD slot as well.

Peregrine is town mostly due to the lack of death of FC N1 I think. The kill wasn't there, we have him claimed and whatever it is Bogre did. Statistically I think thats about a 50-50 of him being town, worst case a third protective role and still 1/3. Good odds when Bogre may not have even gone for protective aspect of his role. That and I see little reason to call him scum apart from that. Its enough to boost him from null to town lean.

Rest later, going to bed. Tired, up in six hours. Threw out just about all of my weak town reads. Eat null list ponies.

~Town~
NtW
Farside
Juls
FA
Bob
Inhim

~Prob Town~
diddin
Peregrine

~Null~
Spy
kunk/chk
oversoul
DN
PJ
jmurph

~Scum Lean~
Blonde Doctor
mike

~Scum~
TJ - Dead by N4 at latest
Ray

[Rainbowdash]

I could be down for a FlavourAnalysis lynch as well. Not a fan of the Oversoul lynch.

Where did the soda kill come from though in that case?

Don't get me wrong, I think he is playing poorly with his actions, but I still think that he is town because of that kill.

[Rainbowdash]

FA.
Her role may exist, it might not be town aligned however.

Scum-JOAT with a vig kill?

Unlikely.

[Rainbowdash]

Why wouldn't scum be allowed a 1-shot extra vig in a large theme?

And use it on easy mislynch? Why not just blast some random townie.

Also, don't forget there wasn't a mafia kill that night.

And soda would have been the scum kill?

I don't buy it. I dislike how FA has played his role but I don't buy a JOAT-scum that has a vig power.

@everypony

- No more Oversoul votes. NtW hasn't activated the claw yet.

[Rainbowdash]

I take it you want me lynched Rainbow?

Yay...

No, but it looks like the only way I can get the claw activated because no pony that can help me otherwise is willing to listen. I would bet you flip town, almost want to put you in the leaning town category here, but if I push the Ray lynch I probably end up with you lynched and no claw.

Also we totally massclaim tomorrow, I think everypony has realized that by this point.

[Rainbowdash]

There is just a whole lot of stuff that would need to go down to get the claw with a Ray lynch, and it doesn't seem like anypony will cooperate with me on it.

[Rainbowdash]

We are doing this?

Ok.

We are doing it this way though.

Unvote
Vote Ray

Anypony who actually hammers, is going to eat claw once we get it back because its temp deactivated again.

[Rainbowdash]

No, we have chased your lynches all day. We are lynching death note damnit!!!

I would vote him over Oversoul if thats any conselation.

I just had a town read on Hiraki, DN has killed off most of that but I lean town a little there still.

[Rainbowdash]

Im just in a bit of breakdown mode ok?



Everything just keeps spinning and I can't get enough of a grip to actually get going.

Weeeeeeee

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote
Vote DN

Enough.

Im done.

This is going to be a town flip
Oversoul is going to be a town flip

Kunkstar, Ray, TJ, mike, BD

Kill 'em all. Fast as possible. Reap the rewards. If its going to take me lynching somepony I think is town to get the point across fine. I will be killing from that list until they are all dead or there is basically undenyable evidence to the contrary.

Actually no.

Im not done yet.

Unvote
Vote BD

@Juls - You get a scum flip here and I will vig DN tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

I swear this whole game is just a massive troll attempt against me.

What other explaination can exist for everypony sheeping me when I have no clue what I am doing with a role that frustrates me to no end and now a VT switches their claim to watcher.

Instinct is that if anypony can bust that claim do it, since that was a really wierd reaction to saying if BD flips scum I will vig you.

OH! AND WE ARE MASSCLAIMING TOO! LOVELY!

You all should be thankfull that I have to love and tolerate you no matter what you do.

I'm impressed that you have a pony picture for every emotion.

[Rainbowdash]

Unvote
Vote DN

[Rainbowdash]

AFTER farside says so somepony can hammer.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok farside did what she needed to do according to QT.

Anypony can hammer.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote bob

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

Mike kill was probably me, don't think anypony else in our group moved to him.

If we are massclaiming we aren't leaving this open to self-hammer, and since bob apparently used his one shot vig on Oversoul instead of the person he is essentially countering... yeah. Not to meniton the dead TJ.

Also I think Ray site flaked so I want that modkill to happen since he is on our vig list.

[Rainbowdash]

Also, fyi, with new information I'm now PRETTY SURE there has to be a scum in the vig neighborhood.

We'll see how the rest shakes out.

I still really disagree with this because it would need to be farside who I still think is town. NtW has been trying to get bob vigged since the start of the game.

[Rainbowdash]

Trust me Rainbows.

I can't here.

My win condition is modified town, farside was the first pony to point that out, NtW is town telling up and down the board. All of that says we are all town. I mean the win condition alone, you really buy a town-town-scum neighbor group where town members can only win if one of them survives in a situation where if the scum one dies at least of the town ones will get instantly NKed?

Do. Not. Buy.

[Rainbowdash]

Well when the 800 or so players that aren't here do their thing it will all make sense.

Im not voting anypony in the neighbor group outside of confirmed cop result or one scum left. Even then, im going to say no at this point.

[Rainbowdash]

@ Rainbow - THIRD time for this question: Are you committed to a Kunkstar vig tonight?

No cause im really going to vig anypony but whichever of bob/kunk we don't lynch today.

Modkill of Ray time. BD only has another 48 hours or so before he dies.

*yawn*

[Rainbowdash]

@ Rainbow - THIRD time for this question: Are you committed to a Kunkstar vig tonight?

No cause im really going to vig anypony but whichever of bob/kunk we don't lynch today.

Assuming we lynch bob today, I'm taking that as a "yes." Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Rainbowdash]

What's the matter, little pony? Horn envy?

My little pony, you seem to think your ability to do parlor tricks somehow is better then flight, how naive.

I would like to see both Ray and BD modkilled here, but if we have a replacement we should take it. Both those slots are on very short lists though and have been since N2 for us vigs.

@jmurph/PJ

- unvote bob. I need to vote him for vigs to qualify still, and don't want to set up kunk for the hammer before we finish massclaim.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Bob

Back at L-2, I would like PJ to still unvote to give more wiggle room but this way we have the vig setup if shennanigans happen.

Since BD is back I guess replace Ray, as much I would like to see that slot get killed off at least getting a claim there would be nice.

We are killing bob tonight.

[Rainbowdash]

Unless the vig-team is a 3-man scum team and bob/BD is part of the other. After the vig team kills off kunkstar tonight, we are definitely lynching Nanook. We aint letting the 3 of you go to the end on your word alone.

Yeah.... no

Unless you are arguing we are a three pony team who decided to claim joint vig meaning one die all die and have been killing ponies the entire game to look like vigs and the other team outnumbers us (bob+kunk makes four), try again. We are obviously what we claim, and we are all town here.

Im going to remain stubborn beyond reason on this one. Aliens are all town and im going to defend that one as long as im here.

[Rainbowdash]

Why not claim what you are claiming as scum. It would be a brilliant gambit. You are unconfirmed alignment and I have independent town reads on you and far side. You are going to have to sacrifice one of you. Your win condition is not my concern. Mine is.

Gambits are acceptable as scum, suicidal gambits are not, especially as you are apparently claiming that there are two teams for us to all be scum. Just going to draw it out to show how foolish what you are claiming is:

1) Dash, farside and NtW are part of a scum B faction that has less members then scum A
2) Dash started softclaiming D2
3) Scum B has killed all ponies that are lynchable
4) Scum B claimed neighbors together that have a vig kill D3 against a rival group, where crosskill of one results in death of them all

Not sure how much more you can derp it up claiming we are all scum together. Makes even less sense then just one of us being scum, and that one is hard to swallow to start with the modified win condition. Im not letting a nieghbor get lynched, especially on multi-scum paranoia.

[Rainbowdash]

I am saying it isn't out of the realm of possibility. I don't share your belief that you are all town however and your refusal to sacrifice ntw scares the beejesus out of me.

Remember, element of loyalty. That one I can play perfectly. I think they are town, I see no reason to think otherwise, I will defend them as long as I am here.

[Rainbowdash]

More proof im awesome with that BD kill.

Kunk would have had mafia doc or redirector on them, the death of TJ had me paranoid beyond reason that it was a redirector and the kunk kill would have gone and hit the mason claims or something. So I got farside to fire off a kill at somepony else, think she went Rhinox, and I took that shot.

Vote kunkstar

After NtW joins in the vote everypony else can finish him off.

@FA - Claim all used and remaining actions.
@Juls - Like I said, we are survivor/town, we win if town wins and an alien is alive.

[Rainbowdash]

@FA - Is bullseye confirmed town to you or confirmed role? I don't think it changes anything either way but I want to be completely sure here.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, what color is your name in your role PM?

Same pink as farside flipped.

At this point I think we are looking at

at most one of FA/NtW, probably niether, if I had to say one FA.

Then the rest are in the group of (Rhinox/Juls/PJ) with neglegably small chances that Peregrine, jmurph, masons being scum.

Peregrine was trying to move wagon to kunk, which means that pony is probably town, especially if kunkstar is non-goon.
Spy-diddin are almost for sure town here as well, they have been breadcrumbing that forever.
Jmurph is probably town since everypony else who has flipped town had safeclaims, there is a chance but its unlikely.

[Rainbowdash]

Random, who was your investigation?

I got no result last night.

The Aliens have their own agenda. They cannot be trusted.

So just to be 100% sure here, you are calling up a second scum faction of three ponies who has been killing ponies who most agree are scum for the entire game and claimed as a group D3?

I just want to know how much of my next post needs to be laughing and how much needs to be rage so I can find the right picture.

Given the Juls flip, looks like its going to need to be rage...

[Rainbowdash]

Im only going to go with slight anger here, trying to be a pleasant pony



For us to be a "three pony SK team", you have to make the following assumptions

1) We are a multi-member non-town team that also does not flip mafia
2) We have no safeclaims or decided not to use them
3) We claimed D3
4) We tried to lynch one of our own
5) We have killed only scummy ponies
6) We are not NK-immune

I mean, im not stupid. Farside is not stupid. NtW is not stupid.

Making a play like this? Suicide. We all know that we are flipping non-town, so we claim a group anyway? Heck half the reason I claimed when I did was that I figured that I was town aligned when I saw nothing about scum partners, not half-town half-survivor. It makes zero sense for us to be anti-town, since nearly every move we made would have been basically the worst move nearly every step of the way.

@RA, diddin

- Unvote. NtW hasn't activated the claw yet.

[Rainbowdash]

And I am going to only go with mildly bigger text.

YOU SHOULD HAVE TOLD US YOU WEREN'T 100% TOWN

It may very well be you guys get to pick a side but this color thing is a big piece of info to leave out.

We told you we are survivor town three weeks ago.

[Rainbowdash]

Rainbow, if you are town you are looking at this with blinders on, seeing it only from your perspective. Imagine yourself sitting in my shoes.

I think that I would still assume town given the claim and choice of kills.

Just the whole idea of a non-NK immune three member scum group that has to have a condition met for the kill to occur first that has been making the kills to look like a vig group that claimed survivor vig, that just is really reaching.

Also unvote, or I will vig you tonight if I can. You are stopping our kill AND you are not letting FA claim actions.

[Rainbowdash]

Don't threaten me.

Don't try and cut the day short.

FA needs to claim, I care more about that then getting the vig.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote

Follow suit everypony

[Rainbowdash]

@Rainbowdash: I'm confused - why are you concerned with cutting the day short? We have confirmed scum.

We have confirmed scum AND we have a JOAT who hasn't claimed their action we ARE getting that action.

@Somepony

- UNVOTE DAMMNIT. Look, we ARE going to hear what the JOAT has done, and then I AM going to vote kunk so we can vig someone. Specifically we need a non-NtW pony to get off the wagon. If you don't and you aren't clear I will heavily bring that into contention when we get to kill.

Vote kunkstar

Vig activated. Juls unvote.

There is no reason to not hear the FA action claim, especially as it heavily weighs on two other ponies alignments. I just want this vig.

[Rainbowdash]

Ok, so I would prefer to have everyone check in first, but I think everything that needs to be done is done.

NtW is town
Spy is town
diddin is town
---
RA is 90% town
Peregrine is 90% town (is town if kunk is non-goon, especially if he is RB)
---
jmurph is 80% town or so. This pony nags at me but I think he is town
FA is in a similar situation, the vig kill makes him look town although gut is rumbly

Juls/PJ/Rhinox - Two scum here, maybe all three, but I think it caps at two... 50-50 on that. FA I almost lean town because of this because PJ and Juls don't work well with that pony.

What doesn't work at this point

Jmurph-RA
Jmurph-FA
FA-RA
PJ-FA

Keep those in mind because the two more questionable town reads do have some distinct "do not work" partners.

Note that I would also not be fine lynching RA outside of both FA and jmurph town AND late in the game. If kunk is non-goon, especially RBer, Peregrine gets bumped to top town tier too.

[Rainbowdash]

Prediction: Rainbow is going to lose this game for us.

Relevant.

Im keeping town in this game.

Not sure who im going to claw at this point. Will be from the trio, that much is for sure.

[Rainbowdash]

Juls/PJ/Rhinox

If you're going to limit your kill to one of us, then do not kill Juls. If Juls is Town, having her lynched is infinitely more useful than having her nightkilled because it gives us another kill to work with.

Given numbers im probably not going to unless she keeps trying to threaten me and NtW. Apart from my whole normal loyalty thing I have extra incentive to not let us get lynched, and will make a kill based on that if pushed into a corner.

I think I know what pony im going for already though unless the role attached to kunk is something utterly unexpected, depending on their flip it may be Juls' turn tomorrow.

[Rainbowdash]

I would prefer to have Spy and diddin say something first so would appreciate taking him off L-1 until that happens.

[Rainbowdash]

I mean more then a vote, like vote and "I think this pony is scum/town too".

[Rainbowdash]

I love how everyone suspects me but not a single person is willing to put forth a case. Other than taking a power when I first came into the game without knowing the "plan", not one person can tell me why they think I am scum. I'm fine with getting lynched but I have put forth a lot of effort into this game. It would be nice to be shown the courtesy of a case.

Well Spy and Diddin are town, NtW is town, im not going to vote for jmurph or RA outside of rare situations and we can remove kunk from the equation.

All thats left there is

You, Rhinox, PJ, FA, Peregrine.

I think Peregrine is town, so thats four ponies.

Who am I gunning for? Well you will be able to figure that one out in the morning.

You are on the short list by virtue of being vanilla more or less.

[Rainbowdash]

We need to figure out whats up with the hider being dead and NOT behind bob because the only other person mentioned would be - ntw.

And if he died behind a "survivor neighbor" then I'm calling super teaparty.

Well likes I said, we got paranoid of a redirector/driver scum mostly thanks to me, and I talked farside and myself off of kunkstar. I really would think there is one at this point, since it was explicit who TJ was to hide behind. Not even sure if we would kill him since while we are not full town, we are not anti-town. Depended what his role said, mafia or not-town. Either way, as I have said, to be anti-town we would needed to have claimed and then ran up one of our own. We all be essentially town after the pink farside flip to me. Anypony screws with NtW need to go through me first, I do not go down easily.

I do not get the teaparty comment though. I dislike tea so am not sure of the implications behind it.

So yeahs... we did something along the lines of

Rainbow -> BD
Farside -> Peregrine (?) I tried to get her to move to Rhinox/BD but there was no confirmation of such
NtW -> Kunk

[Rainbowdash]

So Rainbow, when all the townies are gone and you are still alive, you win yes? Nor do the scum have to kill your team off to win, yes? How many townies have you killed so far? And you want us to trust you, why? I was LOL when you said you were saving the game for the town. Until last night you were a liability. I suggest you be more sure of your targets or keep your claws to yourself. Nothing says you *have* to take a shot if you’re not sure. Does it?

No I would lose then since there is no town alive to meet town win condition meaning my win condition is not met. We do have to kill all scum because we win with town specifically, not scum. Neighbors have killed two town and one scum. You are trusting me because we are a big asset for the town right now and quite obviously exactly what we have claimed. If we activate the claw though we are compulsive, and we will take the right shot.

The only case Rainbow has against Juls is that she doesn’t take any of Rainbow’s crap (excuse me, manure.) I get nothing but town vibes from Juls.

So then who is scum my little pony? If FA, the masons and you are all town, it sounds like your list is the same as mine.

[Rainbowdash]

No I would lose then since there is no town alive to meet town win condition meaning my win condition is not met. We do have to kill all scum because we win with town specifically, not scum.

If you require a town win for your win condition, then you'd be town, period. But you flip pink, not green. I don't believe you. I think you win merely by surviving.

Of course we are not green, because we need MORE then just the town win condition to occur for us to win. If we were just survivor I would have pushed us into siding with scum more.

Its down to just a few ponies to shoot at.

@RA - We will not kill either Juls or jmurph tonight. That is all I will say there such that we don't hit the same pony.

[Rainbowdash]

Juls should die at night so we don't have to deal with that goddamn vengekill.

If we can hit scum tonight it shouldn't much matter about her kill.

Either way if we work under the assumptions that

Neighbors arent mafia
Masons arent mafia
RA isnt mafia

Thats five non-mafia ponies right there out of the soon to be eleven alive. We just need to wipe out the last six as efficiently as possible. We drop one tonight, Juls takes one with her tomorrow and we get rid of another following night should leave us with three non-mafia and two unclear ponies. Plus the whole FA + jmurph near for sure not being scum together can work to our advantage in the long run.

I still just have to question FA-scum on the basis of his kill. Yeah im sure most of us have seen some ponies make wierd kills as scum, but that one just leaves me scratching my head.