Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[Tarhalindur]

Gotta keep my main playing in at least one game, you know.

Read to end of D2 before officially replacing in.

One vote gets to wait until I actually finish reading.

Second vote doesn't have to wait, because there's no way AmeliaSlay was town and that means Quil is scum by virtue of replacing into a scum role.

Unvote, Unvote, Vote: Quilford

More to come shortly.

[Tarhalindur]

Second scum is Imaginality (horribly, horribly under the radar). Given that this is a PJ game and 16 players, existence of a third scum is doubtful.

Vote: Imaginality

Quilford/SlaySlay case coming momentarily.

[Tarhalindur]

unvote

vote: Hiraki, Ranmaru

To answer the questions asked of my votes, by Empking. I initially placed only one vote and randomly to give myself the opportunity to look over the thread. I hadn't yet decided how I wanted to use both votes, although I thought in tandem is a little strange, as second votes might be more useful to place pressure.

Yeah that's not a town explanation.

To comment on one of the wagons, I was initially a bit confused by the smalls wagon-- to me he reads very newb, but not necessarily newb scum. But as the latter end of the thread progresses he seems very willing-- almost falling over himself to accomodate requests for outside of game activity on other sites. That over-eager to please mentality strikes me wrong. I also really didn't like the comment in post #198, where he mentions that we should look tomorrow for those attacking him hardest. That being said, I don't know that this sways my balance toward a vote.

"Strikes me wrong", "don't know that this sways my balance towards a vote". Yeah, that doesn't look like town rhetoric to me. Slay knows snails (screw smalls, snails is better) is town, so she's giving herself a way out.

As to reasons for my current votes, I haven't really been fond of the tone of Hiraki's posts.. he seems pretty excitable early game. However, I really haven't liked either Lowkey or Ranmaru's method of scum-hunting. Both of them seem to rely on a form of metagaming, that forgive me as I haven't played in a while seems like going beyond the pale. As in this post by Ranmaru:

Actually, I was asking because before he has been set to visible. I told him I would be checking his recent posts to make sure he is following up with the game, but I didn't want to sound like a creeper. He usually jokes around and I'm fine with throwing some sillyness toward him. He knows that I have called him out and multiple others and still do. I am sad at him being invisible.

The only time I remember ever watching who's visible/not-- timestamps, etc. was as scum looking for justifications to point fingers at other players. Lowkey and Ranmaru seem to use similar logic to point fingers at smalls and redcoyote, on what I think of as weak cases, especially given my preference towards only looking in game at in game behavior.

Slay's still wishy-washy as hell AND she's trying to discredit scumhunting methods (and she ADMITS that they're scumhunting, which is utterly and completely inconsistent with suggesting Loki/Ranmaru are scum). That's not town.

More importantly, note the tone of the post. That tone isn't a town tone.

As to reasons for my current votes, I haven't really been fond of the tone of Hiraki's posts.. he seems pretty excitable early game.

This is your reasoning for a vote?

Why me amci. Why are you so scummy?

If the latter is directed at me, I'm confused as to the amci part. As to the former, yes... you've been very angry early on at any votes and in general in tone-- or on the defensive it seems. While some might read that as pro-town, I don't necessarily.

Also, could I get clarification from you as to what you meant by this post?

Damn.

Damn Empking.

You voted on both sides of the argument.

More wishy-washy - note the "don't necessarily".

Couple of quick comments, questions:
LK: Post 361 questions re: N0 not looking attractive, are you referencing a prior post?
Hiraki: Post 362: You haven't really addressed the logic of why posts ending in a ? are generally bad.. do tell.

Crazy: (post 377) Your analysis of kunkstar seemed a little stating the obvious... "shape up- ship out"... why bother? Content fluff?
Kunkstar: (post 381) Good catch (I think) on Pom not really saying anything other than "scummy" to move her vote from rvs to real. I'd like to hear more about this from Pom.

More later....

Oh look at those comments re: Crazy and Kunkstar. Should be self-explanatory, eh?

VOTE: Ranmaru
VOTE: DGB
The latter is beyond scummy.

OH HEY LOOK WHO COMPLETELY IGNORED THE KUNKSTAR WAGON D3.

ALSO OH HEY LOOK WHOSE TONE IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM MAFIA INVICTUS.

Fuck. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MY BUDDEEEEE

Is this a claim to be his mason buddy, as I heavily suspect you at the moment and yeah.

VOTE: DGB
VOTE: Ranmaru

One of the two is definitely scum.

Yeah no. Voting Ran despite obvious mason claim? Very very emotional tone? That's NOT Quiltown.

Why aren't we wagoning Quilford to death again?

[Tarhalindur]

PJ notes replacement: 12:36
Tar votes Quilford: 12:45
Tar votes imaginality 13:02
Tar case against Slay/Quil 13:17

Ranmaru says Tar is town, confirming Tar as as scum.

Tar doesn't mention me.

The Tar posts are artificial, incomplete, and smack of a scum agenda.

Vote stays.

That's because I'm still processing the game and trying to get a goddamn read on your slot, all my old scumtells on you work like shit now that you've changed style.

Not sucking up to me is a point in your favor, post 702 (kunk AND Slay on your scumlist) is a point in your favor (don't think you're distancing), willingness to get lynched is a point in your favor, post 932 looks genuine.

On the flip side, Pom's wagon on Hiraki was godawful and I just saw you pull scumputer shenanigans like I'm seeing here as DGB-scum.

Not sold on you being town, but I don't think you're anywhere near the most likely person to be scum. I don't want you lynched today.

---

Crazy attacks are BAD. He's one of my strongest town reads.

He's been pushing imaginality. IMAGINALITY. And his case is quite solid.

Want more evidence that Crazy is town? Here, have some choice Crazytown posts from D1 and D2:

Also, kunkstar, can you explain why me voting Imaginality but not you would be indicative of me being scum? I mean, I could understand scum might be hypocritical in regards to their own scum-partners, but how is me being hypocritical in favor of you scummy from

your own

perspective, since you should know yourself to be town.

Nice catch that. (Also, oh look kunkscum defending a buddy.)

Okay, screw this Pom wagon. My only read on her is of someone that obviously didn't have enough time to devote to this game,

especially

since she ended up requesting replacement. If she happens to be scum, then it's by

luck

. I see no particular reason to lynch her now, before her replacement comes in, at least.

WLC is much, much, scummier. His Day 1 play was just voting Amrun for nonsense reasons (see my earlier post from late Day 1), voting kunkstar for not voting in his first post (valid, but weak), and then just filler posts for the rest of the day. He didn't scum-hunt, he didn't press his reads, and he didn't really comment on any of the major wagons.

On Day 2, all he did was dump his questionable Amrun read for an easy Smalls vote. He never responded to the wagon on himself or came up with any decent reads. I suppose he probably will try

soon

, but I doubt anything he will say will change my mind at this point. In some cases, I think it's far more telling to see what a player does when they're

not

under pressure.

If there's anything I want to hear from WLC, it's an

explanation of how his case on Amrun made any sense

.

I'm not going to use my second vote because I don't want to give any implication that there's anyone that I want to lynch today except for WLC.

That read on the Pom wagon does NOT come from a scumbag (DGB flipping scum would weaken this read, but not negate it). He recognized that the wagon was crap and backed off.

DGB

not

voting for WLC upon replacing in most likely either means that she's town or they're scum together, and the latter is far less likely just because of probability. If WLC flips scum, I'll consider it, then. But DGB scum/WLC town makes VERY little sense.

To you disagreers - tell me why you disagree with this.

If you were scum replacing in Pom's position, could you possibly see yourself

not

voting for WLC?

I like post 697. I don't really understand why people are giving WLC such a hard time.

Really...? Does it not bother you that Post #697 is his first decent post in this game?

Glorious GLORIOUS reasoning here (and another point in DGB's favor).

CRAZY IS GENUINELY SCUMHUNTING, HE IS CONSIDERING WHETHER A PLAYER'S ACTIONS ACTUALLY MAKES SENSE AS SCUM AND RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. WE ARE NOT LYNCHING HIM TODAY.

More in a bit, but for now I want to make sure that pants-on-head town doesn't hammer Crazy.

[Tarhalindur]

MORE CRAZYTOWN:

Ranmaru, when Fate suggested hammering DH without a claim, all you did was say "Uh, no, we should always make sure to get a claim before we lynch somebody." In this game, on the other hand, you're going "OMG KUNKSTAR IS SCUM DIE DIE DIE." Why the difference?

Not that I excuse Kunkstar's actions, but that's for post-game discussion crap. It's horrible play, but I don't think his hammering was necessarily a scum-tell. If anything, it's a slight

town

-tell, since it drew unnecessary focus towards him. And no, this isn't WIFOM, since there is no way that Kunkstar could imagine that I'd say that.

Post #845 is also one of the most absurd examples of reaching I've ever seen.

Everyone look at this, please

.

Just because he was proved wrong here (by kunk flip) doesn't mean he was *wrong*.

*glances at silavor in Mafia Invictus*

Lol, I get that all the time. Every time I blast someone for making a stupid argument against X, then "OMG, Crazy must be X's partner!" Seriously, this isn't even the first time that happened in

this game

. Wasn't I supposed to be Hiraki's partner, too?

My attention here really isn't toward defending Kunkstar, though - there are actually many worse people to lynch (like the horrible Pom wagon, but I'll get to that). My issue is that you look like scum setting up an easy lynch for tomorrow. Kunkstar

is

an easy lynch, and if I was scum, you can bet I'd be down his throat like crazy. What matters here is that your attacks on him are... very bad. You're saying so much that he "claimed scum" by his quickhammer, even though you've personally seen town quickhammer like that before (Fate in Open 300). Your other main issue with him is that he didn't specify who he was unvoting when he hammered WLC. I mean, seriously? You can check his posts - he was voting Pom and me before that.

Another thing is that you got on his case immediately, even before WLC's flip. That implies to me that you

knew

that WLC would flip town. You had been saying all day that you wanted one of Pom/WLC to get lynched, and yet you never considered that Kunkstar could have hammered scum. Instead of a normal reaction, like, "Ugh, I can't believe Kunk just hammered without a claim, but I hope he's right," you went all "OMG KUNKSTAR JUST CLAIMED SCUMZZZ!!!"

Oh, and what else? This isn't the first time you've done this! You were on Pom's butt for not contributing, fair enough, but when Pom replaced out, you didn't think that justified the inactivity? She replaced out because she didn't have time for the game, right...?

Check out these quotes, people (posts 662-664):

She

[Pom]

only felt the need to replace out when a wagon was looming over her. Thoughts?

I don't like making assumptions based on timing of replacement requests; I think it's fairer to assume it's a null tell. I think if I remember correctly there was an MD thread about this, I'll try to find the link.

Oh I see. Well I guess it being null wouldn't absolve the slot of being scummy, but let's see what the replacement has to say then.

My paraphrase:

Ranmaru: Hey, I wonder if I can make Pom look scummy for replacing out!
imaginality: No, you can't.
Ranmaru: Oh, well.

But Pom is still scum!!!

In all seriousness, you generally don't

ask

somebody whether something is scummy or not, unless you're trying to gauge reactions. But that's clearly not what Ranmaru was doing, since he gave up the idea after only one person replied. So apparently Ranmaru never really thought that Pom replacing out was scummy to begin with, if he gave up on that idea so easily.

Even though it won't do anything,

VOTE: Ranmaru

Guys, if I do die tonight, please look heavily into Ranmaru.

Yeah, that right there? It's a TOWN case.

Crazy decided that kunkstar's actions weren't necessarily those of scum, found things in Ranmaru's reactions that he thought had to come from scum, and acted accordingly. He was wrong, but that doesn't mean that he's scum.

Seriously, this is Zachrulez in Mafia Invictus all over again.

I assume the main reason a wagon formed on me is because I attacked Ranmaru's crappy case on Kunkstar, and now Ranmaru is confirmed town. I'm not really sure what I can say about that, except that I think it was pretty obvious that I was more about lynching Ranmaru rather than defending Kunkstar. But meh, if you guys have any questions for me, I'll be glad to answer them.

Looking for likely Kunkstar partners:

Crazy: (post 377) Your analysis of kunkstar seemed a little stating the obvious... "shape up- ship out"... why bother? Content fluff?
Kunkstar: (post 381) Good catch (I think) on Pom not really saying anything other than "scummy" to move her vote from rvs to real. I'd like to hear more about this from Pom.

This is Amelia's only mention of Kunkstar. The first line (incorrectly directed towards me) feels like a subtle defense - if only because scum tend to be in-tune with what other people are saying about their buddies.

Her replacement, Quilford, seems VERY bad in regard to Kunkstar's flip.

In Post #754, he puts Kunkstar in his "scum" list, but he never voted for him the rest of the game.

did Kunkstar hammer with absolutely no reasoning or comment again?

I'm beginning to think he's post restricted, lol.

This is bad because it reads like Quilford is trying to give Kunkstar an out. Also, this hardly seems like a reaction from someone who had Kunkstar as one of his main suspects. If Quilford was

already

suspicious of Kunkstar, then wouldn't the second quickhammer make him

raise

his suspicions (like Ranmaru's reaction), rather than make him think Kunkstar had a post restriction?

Today:

kunkstar flip was utterly predictable; I meant to put my vote on him yesterday but instead put it on you (make of that what you will, Amrun )

Here he's trying to act like Kunkstar was obvscum, even though there's

nothing

in his previous posts that suggested that he thought that. Check his ISO; his main suspects were DGB and Ranmaru, and now he's acting like he

knew

Kunkstar would flip scum? Come on...

I can't in good faith vote Quilford yet, since I haven't looked at everybody, but he's definitely scummy. I just don't know yet if there are people that look even worse off than Quilford.

I cannot FATHOM how people think that Crazy is scum after this post.

He's looking OFF the beaten track for scumbags, he's got two INSANELY good catches on Quilford. And people are WAGONING him?

No. FUCK THAT SHIT.

@Crazy: What's your read on DGB today?

She's still prob-town for not jumping on the WLC wagon - even though (a) her neck was on the line and (b) she had just replaced in so she could come up with any reads she wanted.

Why do

you

still think DGB is scum despite that? And same question

@Empking

.

Tell me: If Crazy is scum, why has he stayed off DGB? Why is he defending DGB? Why has he stayed off my wagon?

Crazy is staying OFF the easy lynches. He has been ALL GAME.

Crazy is GENUINELY SCUMHUNTING.

In a game which fairly clearly has only one scum faction (and no SK), that means he's almost certainly town.

People, get your pants off your head and starting LISTENING to Crazy.

Did you really expect me to figure out that's what you meant by that? Why are you being so vague, dude? There can't be any decent pro-town reason for making a post that can't be answered by anything except an "Elaborate, please."

I know you have an unorthodox playstyle, but that takes it to a new level of absurdity.

On top of that, your reasoning is crap, too. DGB's "scumputer" is based on entirely objective criteria, so her alignment's going to have nothing to do with whether her results pick out scum or not.

And of course you never

mention

this is why you voted DGB. Do you just vote DGB for unexplained reasons and assume that people will let you get away with it because it's your playstyle?

I'm voting you for two reasons - for being ridiculously vague when I asked you a question, and having absurd reasons for assuming that one of me/DGB has to be scum.

VOTE: Empking

Once again, Crazy refuses to take the easy way out.

There aren't many scum I know who do that.

Seriously, why the HELL is Crazy at L-1? Ranmaru, Empking: Get off him. That would go for Amrun too, but she's been reading scummy enough to me (third behind Quilford/imaginality) that I'd rather use my time convincing the people I'm pretty sure are town.

[Tarhalindur]

@Quilford - Why don't you think Smalls is scum? He wasn't exactly on the top of my list before, but crap like this makes me nervous:

I don't see Quilford being that scumlike...

so don't think smalls is mafia guys

he reminds me of a guy called brundibar in my newbie here
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=16915

fuck my tone it varies in basically every game I'm in

I explained why I missed the kunkstar wagon and the rest of your post is just shitty stuff brought up against my predecessor

your repetition of

Yeah that's not a town explanation

Yeah, that doesn't look like town rhetoric to me.

That's not town.

That tone isn't a town tone.

That's NOT Quiltown.

is a kind of written tic I notice myself writing in posts as mafia and I'm pretty sure I've seen it performed by other players too

plus your slot's history is friggin terrible and the replacing out reeks of scum

VOTE: Tarharlindur

This attack/attempt at defense is bullshit.

All those "not town"? I was pulling that ALL THE TIME in Mafia Invictus as town - not a fucking coincidence given how much my modern townstyle comes down to finding the players whose tone is off and/or are conveniently on the sidelines. It's null at worst, definitely not a scumtell.

Also look at how Quilford conveniently cuts out where I try to EXPLAIN why I don't think his posts come from a town perspective and how he simply dismisses my points against Ameliaslay.

I'll take a look at his completed games to be sure, but I have difficulty seeing him post like this in this game while the same alignment he was in Mafia Invictus where he was posting like this:

Hmmmm....


.......

.....No. Not wagonning.

Found a live one!

VOTE: Kublai Khan

Meaning?

I don't hate Fate, mate.

Why have you not voted at all, then?

{danceHello, Gut, Quilford, silavor} <-- I'm thinking that this is a good starting group to look for scum in.

Why?

Show me whereyou answered my question.

Now go take a look at Quil's ISO here.

See the difference? Quil was asking questions in Invictus. He was trying to determine alignment and THEN pushing a player. Here he's deciding who he wants to push and THEN looking for a case.

There's a difference between those two kinds of behaviors. We call the first "scumhunting" and the second "scum looking for a justification for a mislynch".

And let's take special note of these posts (representing Quil's reaction to silavor's quickhammer D1 in Mafia Invictus):

Dance's joke makes me think he thought this wasn't going through so we'll give a tiinny bit of town there.

I really didn't,

the fuck

? Threw a vote on to see what would happen,

didn't think you guys would fucking lynch what the fuck

FoS: I don't even know

- PBuG

HOLY SHIT GUYS

WHAT THE FUCK

SILAVOR 4 OPPORTUNISTIC SCUM

VOTE: silavor

terrible hammer reeks of opportunism

I'm certain all townspeople have an Invictus kill.

Compare to his response to kunkstar hammering in this game:

oh.

did Kunkstar hammer with absolutely no reasoning or comment again?

I'm beginning to think he's post restricted, lol.

Hmm. Why the difference in the response, I WONDER, I WONDER.

Couldn't POSSIBLY be because he was town in Mafia Invictus and is scum here, right guys?[/sarcasm]

[Tarhalindur]

Tar I'm looking forward to your read on Empking.

UNVOTE: Tar

Empking: Town/Unreadable (about the same as you)

(busy with marathon stuff, back later)

[Tarhalindur]

Tar I'm looking forward to your read on Empking.

UNVOTE: Tar

Empking: Town/Unreadable (about the same as you)

(busy with marathon stuff, back later)

If you're town, the scumputer dictates that Empking should die.

Yeah no. Mafia Invictus is more than enough proof that it's way too easy to lean the Scumputer towards weak townies.

Scumputer results are far, FAR less convincing than playstyle.

Yeah no.

Voting Ran despite obvious mason claim?

Very very emotional tone? That's NOT Quiltown.

Why is that scummy? If that's scummy, wouldn't Smalls be scummy for doing the same thing?

Yes, but the balance of snails' play (especially reaction to wagon D1) points towards snails being newbtown rather than newbscum, while Quilford's balance of play is scummy.

Not that I'm necessarily complaining about a Quilford wagon here; I just don't get this point. And as awesome as it was, I can't be swayed by your 17-million page essay on "Why Crazy is town."

... Maybe I should reconsider that town read on you.

Townies don't need to load their questions with "not necessarily complaining" and "as awesome as it was".

Crazy; Do you still think the scumputer is objective?

Now you sound like Ranmaru.

3 DrippingGoofball (imaginality, Empking, smallpeoples343)

I'm being voted by some shady characters.

Are you TRYING to convince me you're scum?

Seriously, MAJOR flashes of Mafia Invictus here.

[Tarhalindur]

Anyways, Crazy I don't see how you can't See Smalls being scummy.

Go back and look at snails' reaction to being wagoned D1.

He's newbtown. Get your pants off your head.

Next question?

[Tarhalindur]

Currently too busy getting a Mind Screw off the ground to stay fully up to date with this game.

Not too busy to not notice imaginality's 1328. Never mind my previous suspicion, he's town.

Unvote: imaginality

Quil's VT claim would be unusual for a scumbag but isn't unheard of. The admission that he's having doubts on reads, however, reads town.

Unvote: Quilford

I have an idea.

We are 9 left, we need 5 to lynch.

TOWNIES

2.) Quilford (rep. Ameliaslay)
3.) Amrun
4.) Crazy
12.) DrippingGoofball (rep. Pomegranate)
13.) Ranmaru

SCUMZ

10.) imaginality
6.) Empking
14.) Tarhalindur (rep. HackerHuck (rep. RedCoyote))
15.) smallpeoples343

Now, the 4 scumz players aren't all scum. At least one doesn't belong there. Maybe even two.

What we need is for the 4 non-DGB townies to make serious cases on one player tomorrow.

Quilford >>> imaginality
Amrun >>> Empking
Crazy >>> Tarhalindur (rep. HackerHuck (rep. RedCoyote))
Ranmaru >>> smalls

The four of you will decide who to lynch together.

Is that a plan?

"So, let's try to force people to make cases on players they don't necessarily think are scum."

Not only is that lazy and passive as shit, that's not town behavior - if followed, it would shut off genuine scumhunting and provide more cover to scum (confuse the difference between town attacking because they think a player is scum and scum attacking because they have to make a case on a player they don't think is scum).

I'm trying to see a town reason for floating this, DGB, and I'm not seeing one.

Vote: DrippingGoofball

Second vote... I'll go with the unsupported gut read here, cause I've got nothing else right now.

Vote: Amrun

[Tarhalindur]

@Quilford - How do you feel about the imaginality wagon?
And can you explain your Empking vote and your Tar vote?
And can you explain why you said you doubted your read on several players (including Empking), but then in the same post, you said "Empking needs to die."

@Tar - Why is one instance of Quilford saying he doubted his reads enough to jump off his wagon?

@imaginality - Any chance of you voting Quilford today? I'm not lynching DGB.

Read like a town response to me.

Not as sold as I was by imaginality's posting today, however.

[Tarhalindur]

Where the hell was I? I was setting up a Mind Screw then rereading the game because this isn't adding up.

Until I noticed something
- kunk was CONSISTENTLY voting Pom (DGB) and Crazy prior to lynch, unvoting mainly to quickhammer.
- DGB's been consistently trying to discredit - but NOT LYNCH - Ranmaru, even before the Mason claim.

DGB's annoyingly hard to read (now that she's changed her scum meta, it used to be easy as sin to spot), but these pretty scumputer pics just showed up in Mafia Invictus and her play is increasingly reminding me of her play there.

Crazy read town at first, but his reaction to D3 is bad and so is his reaction to my push against the Crazy wagon.

My running theory: kunk was distancing from his partners like no tomorrow. At LEAST one of {DGB, Crazy} is scum. I'm willing to bet it's both.

Unvote: Amrun, Vote: Crazy

Come on, somebody needs to put the last vote on one of those two.

Outside chances of scum: Amrun (gut), Quilford (reaction to kunk hammer)

[Tarhalindur]

@Eli: I can understand that it can be kind of hard to come to a scum read on someone that you originally had as town but how does he just get a total pass on refusing to claim??

How does somebody at L-1 get to go, "Hahaah I'll claim if somebody ELSE asks me! "??

Hiraki Reads

Pomegranate, iamausername, smallpeoples343, [Low Key], Amrun, Ameliaslay, RedCoyote, Eli all say he's scum.

Crazy

, Empking, Imagine,

Kunkstar

,

Ranmaru

, Wey all say he's town.

Funny how almost all of my scum reads are not on the Hiraki wagon. I suspect that Imagine or Wey can support a Hiraki lynch here. The problem is we haven't heard from them lately.

Hmm, I wonder why [Low Key] got killed N1.

(Snails was running with this line of reasoning D2 - one of two HUGE reasons I have a townread on that slot - but forgot about it.)

[Tarhalindur]

Because they were red in the original quoted post. Didn't say [Low Key] had all three of his scumreads correct (I'd have a strong townread on Ran even WITHOUT the claim), but two was enough to threaten the scum.

Still figuring out which one of {DGB, Crazy} is scum if kunk was only bussing one of two buddies. (Note that kunk had a "Hiraki today, Crazy tomorrow" outlook... leaning towards DGB's slot being the sure bus.)

Next question?

---

DGB, why ignore Amrun's scumputer totals? (I think I know what you're going to say, but I want to double check.)

[Tarhalindur]

Tar, how is kunkstar consistently voting for Pom at ALL even remotely approaching a SCUMPOINT for dgb?

Fuck this if that was the hammer. Tards.

Because I think kunkstar was distancing from at least one and possibly both of his partners.

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, before we do anything else today:

There are at minimum 2 and at most 3 scum alive right now. That means we're either at LyLo or a day away.

We are massclaiming today. PERIOD.

Players already voting: Unvote in your next post or die.

[Tarhalindur]

Known claims:

Quilford: vanilla town

Needed claims:
Tarhalindur
Amrun
Crazy
Empking
imaginality
Scott Brosius (who needs to claim BEFORE he finishes reading the thread)

Since I'm under suspicion, I'll go ahead and start: vanilla town

If we're popcorning, Scott Brosius goes next. Hell, Scott needs to claim ASAP even if we're NOT popcorning. (There's method in my madness.)

[Tarhalindur]

STILL not sold on Scott's slot being scum, though he wasn't looking as good during second reread.

Need to reread scumputer now that I know DGB's not faking it.

[Tarhalindur]

First thoughts now that massclaim is done:

- Not surprised by lack of power claims, PJ is pretty much the exemplar of the power-light school of modding. That also pretty much confirms that we're dealing with two surviving scum rather than three, PJ likes to keep his scumgroups small (balance reasons). Players who claimed late and players who know PJ mod meta well are particularly suspect (the way Amrun claimed looks REALLY bad to me).
- Trying to figure out who can and can't be scum with each other. Current thoughts:
: Snails, and by extension Scott, still read town to me.
: imaginality doesn't make sense in any scumgroup except MAYBE with Crazy. Best point against him is that scum were killing the strongest players early on (Ran is a clear anomaly based on being a Mason) and he's still alive.
: Emp helped derail the Crazy wagon D1 and IIRC they've been on relatively similar wavelengths since. I nailed two scum for that in Invictus. I'll reread once I'm somewhat more awake (low on sleep) to double-check.
: Likewise, Amrun and Quil read on similar wavelengths.
: I have difficulty seeing Crazy as scum with anyone except Empking given what I've seen of interactions. No way in hell is he scum with Quilford, and while Crazy/Amrun is possible I have my doubts. (Crazy/imaginality isn't out of the question, but I don't see the same "on the same wavelength" I see between him and Empking.)
: Quil stayed the hell of kunk D3, Amrun was on kunk early but never posted after that. Crazy pushed Ran at the end of D2, which is a godawful reaction. Emp voted kunk late with no stated reasoning. Bah, I can't figure out which reactions are scum here at all.

Godsdammit I need some sleep.

Leaning towards forcing a decision between Empking and myself today, I REALLY don't want to have to try to read Empking in LyLo.

Oh, and while I'm here:

V/LA until Wednesday (should have access, but not taking any chances).

Vote: Empking
Vote: Crazy

Will answer questions later.

[Tarhalindur]

Mod: Moderate V/LA until Wednesday.

I'll be frank - I don't really feel that I need to think much today, since yesterday a) fits perfectly with the read on the game I gave late yesterday (Amrun/Quil or Empking/Crazy as only logical scumteams) and b) disproves one of the possible scumteams.

Scum are Empking and Crazy (outside shot Amrun and Crazy, but Empking is FAR more likely given that Amrun hates my player slot in a way Empking doesn't). No way in HELL is Crazy town after that quickhammer - I'm willing to bet the game on that read - and Empking is his only logical partner. Imaginality's play has been obviously town ever since I challenged him on it Day 4. Amrun's being an utter and complete IDIOT, but Quilford flipping town pretty much clears her because I still can't see any other logical Amrun partners. (Also, her choice of players to look at in endgame reads town to me - the scumhunting looks genuine.)

Moreover, I'm pretty sure at this point that I can identify the scum endgame EXACTLY - scum are counting on Amrun deciding on me over Empking at endgame. THAT'S why Crazy quickhammered Quilford - because doing so would a) shut down the possibility of an Empking lynch D4 and b) set up an endgame where Amrun would have to choose between voting me and voting scum, either D6 or (more likely) D7 (Amrun/Tar/Empking endgame).

So, my priority is to convince Amrun that I am town.

HoS: Crazy

, will upgrade to vote (and Lock On) once we are ready for day to end.

[Tarhalindur]

Apologies for delay, I was slammed with zero access on Wednesday.

Expect a post later tonight.

[Tarhalindur]

Yeah, not ready to lay a vote down yet, let alone end the day. This needs addressing:

Here's something I've noticed about how we stand at the moment.

Amrun wants to vote Empking or Tarhalindur.
Crazy thinks Empking and I are scumbuddies.
I think Crazy-Empking is likeliest.
Tarhalindur also thinks it's Crazy-Empking.

Everyone (except Empking) has Empking among their top two suspects.

This means either Empking is town and two townies are wrong in their suspicions of him, or he's scum and someone is distancing from him.

If Empking's town

, what would that mean? Based on current suspicions:

For me Amrun-Tarhalindur or Crazy-Tarhalindur are the next most likely pairings (I think Crazy-scum makes sense with Empking, or possibly Tarhalindur, but not with Amrun).
Amrun based on 1631 says me - Tarhalindur is the next most likely pairing.
Crazy based on 1638 (where he rules out Amrun - Tarhalindur and Amrun - me) says me - Tarhalindur is next most likely pairing, as well.
Empking suspects Crazy and Tarhalindur.
Tarhalindur's second choice pairing is Amrun-Crazy.

So,

if Empking's town, everyone except Tarhalindur suspects Tarhalindur.

As above, for us to be wrong about Tarhalindur, it would take two townies to be wrong.

So what?

Well, to me this suggests,

it could be good for us to make Empking and Tarhalindur cross-vote

.*

Then, if neither gets quicklynched, we've proven one of them must be scum. That then improves our lynch choice - we can choose from just two players, of whom one is

definitely

scum, and possibly both are.
What are the risks of a quicklynch? Well, we can only get quicklynched if they're

both town

- which can only be the case if two townies are wrong about Empking-scum, and two townies are wrong about Empking-town implying Tarhalindur-scum. To me, that seems like a reasonable level of confidence for a lylo situation.


*Maybe it's a bit early to propose this, since our suspicions can still change, obviously. But anyhow, I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts about this plan.

There are two problems with this plan:
- If myself and Empking are both town, this plan loses the game for town.
- It cheats us out of a lynch of all-but-confirmed scum (Crazy) today.

I find it difficult to believe that you'd miss BOTH of these problems, especially considering your stated belief that Crazy is scum (with Empking). I consider it FAR more likely that for you these are features instead of problems - that is to say, that you aren't town and know that you're setting up two townies to vote each other.

Consider my town read on you SHOT, and now I need to check whether an imag-Crazy scumteam makes sense.

[Tarhalindur]

Here, will post later today (hopefully, still having RL time issues).

[Tarhalindur]

Access to MafiaScum? WHAT IS THIS MADNESS

I am not hammering Empking. As such, the only way I can be scum is if Empking is my partner.

I am sufficiently confident in Amrun being town that I want her to have the hammer today, though I will hammer if necessary to avoid a deadline lynch.

By PoE scum must be two of {Empking, Crazy, imaginality}. Can I rule out a possible pairing between these three? If yes, the common member of the possible pairings is the correct lynch today.

I have doubts about the feasibility of imaginality-Empking as a pairing (bussing at LyLo is a time-honored strategy - see Kinetic's Vortex for a shining example of this - but imaginality's play doesn't read like a bus to me).

Actually, you know what? Screw it. It's time to risk the game on my Crazy read. I'm considerably more sure he's scum than Empking, and from my perspective there's one very firm benefit to the Crazy lynch: Lynching Crazyscum HARDCLEARS me as town.

Amrun, pay close attention: I did not hammer Empking despite him being at L-2. If I am scum then there must be at least one townie on the Empking wagon. Ergo, the ONLY way I can be scum is if Empking is my partner. If Crazy flips scum, then Empking CANNOT be my partner (because we would have lost already if there were four scum to start), ergo if Crazy is confirmed Mafia (by flip) then I cannot possibly be Mafia.

Vote: Crazy

If the scumteam is actually Emp/imag, well played, and shame on Crazy for that quickhammer as town at a day from LyLo.

---

PPE: Emp, if you are town then you will remove that vote on imaginality IMMEDIATELY. Failure to do so WILL result in your lynch today - I'd rather lynch Crazy first, but I WILL hammer you for that today if necessary.

[Tarhalindur]

Unvote: Imaginality

Why?

Not taking any chances.

Also, because I wasn't really thinking it through - there ISN'T any risk from you using your second vote on imag, because either you're scum or you're voting for both scum. Never mind, revote him if you wish.