Double-Dip Mafia, Game Over

[imaginality]

I've played with: Amrun (ongoing), Ellibereth, iamausername, RedCoyote, WeyounsLastClone.

Vote: Pomegranate

Same reason as Empking. It's a milder version of claiming to have used random.org

Vote: Crazy

for:

I'm also struggling to figure out why you asked that question. What were you planning on doing with the results to your survey?

First sentence seems disingenuous, second seems counter-productive.

[imaginality]

@Imaginality: How does random votes make Pom scummy? Can you expand on why Crazy's second sentence was counter productive?

@Crazy: Since when have you put yourself on invisible?

Because explicitly stating one's votes are random is slightly over-cautious and unhelpful. Unhelpful because if the idea of the RVS is in part that we can find scum by seeing whose votes/comments might possibly be non-random in scummy ways, then to explicitly vote randomly is sort of like pleading the 5th and refusing to say anything.

Overcautious because town shouldn't have reason to worry about their votes being suspected scummy (since they know they're not), whereas scum prefer not to have the attention on them so are more likely to use the "This vote really is just random, honest guv," line.

Now, of course, this is a very very weak reason to suspect someone. But that's my view of the RVS - it's a minimal information stage, but applying pressure and scumhunting based on that minimal information helps us uncover stronger clues and better reads. So I think it was plenty enough reason for a vote on her at this early stage.

--

Crazy's second sentence was counter-productive because, supposing Ellibereth had a good reason for asking the question, it would be rendered pointless by revealing how he intends to interpret the answers, since anyone answering after that point would know what he's looking for. Better would have been to let Ellibereth garner his answers, and then jump on him if he failed to do anything useful with them at that point.

Which is also why I felt Crazy's previous sentence was disingenuous - since the second sentence made it appear he either had already assumed there was no value in the question, or else didn't care if there was or not, rather than actually thinking there might be.

--

Imaginality is in my Top 3 for sure, but he needs to post some more first, and I don't want to explain why he's scummy NOW because I don't want to upset his natural play.

This contrasts with your less laissez-faire approach in the case of Ellibereth's question (presumably also part of his 'natural play'). Why the difference?

[imaginality]

Only skimmed the last few pages. Hiraki seems town to me though, all the 'was it 2 or 3 scumreads on the wagon' stuff seemed like the typical 'townie's confusing explanation gets painted to look scummy' situation that comes up every game.

Of the people on Hiraki's wagon:

I buy small's play and claim as having that town scent to it. Sadly.

I have a gut town read on Amrun but want to hear her reason for calling WLC scum in such strong terms. (If it's just gut, come join the Pom wagon instead Amrun like you were considering.)

I found [Low Key] hard to read at first but looking through his iso I get a townread now.

iamausername, hmm, keeping an eye on him for now. Expect to have a clear read after his next few posts.

As for Pom:

The way she said "My RVS vote on Hiraki is now a serious vote. Scummmy" without going into any more detail seemed a lazy-scummy act.
"In regard to Elli's question, realize that I was protown enough to respond to it" rang badly in iso#2 (the 'I was protown' bit).
"Seriously considering joining smallwagon-- just considering whether L-1 makes sense now" in iso#3 is also bad. "I don't think L-1 makes sense now" would have been a legitimate reason to not vote him, but "just considering" sounds like a convenient excuse to stay on the sidelines.

I'm keeping my vote on her, on her.

(Though I accept the 'random vote' thing was a null-tell in her case.)


Crazy's looked a bit better since earlier, which leads me to reinterpret his jumping on Ellibereth's question as blundering town rather than scum.

Unvote: Crazy

Vote: Ameliaslay

until we get that promised 'further comment on content'.

[imaginality]

Pomegranate, why do you think Hiraki is scummy? Do you agree with everything that's been thrown at him? If not, which reasons in particular are you voting him for?

[imaginality]

Sadly because he's claimed.

[imaginality]

First of all, slightly belated I know, but my sympathies to Amrun and best wishes for a speedy recovery for her father.


On Hiraki:

I still kinda disagree with the initial case on him stacking up to much in itself. It seems like the main point was suggesting his cog-dis shows his scum reads weren't genuine, but I don't think it does prove that. It could as easily be a simple null-tell mix-up.

However, I agree the way he's stalling his claim really doesn't look good. Refusing to claim is okay in my book, but stalling in the way he's doing is suspect. Also, Ranmaru's attempts to deflect away from Hiraki (e.g. 509) look, as [Low Key] says, more like posturing than genuine, and his attacks on [Low Key] could be a chainsaw defense kind of thing, so if we get a scum flip on Hiraki, Ranmaru looks like a likely buddy.

I also didn't like Ranmaru's rolefishing tone in 448.


...eh. I'm okay with hammering Hiraki if we get closer to deadline, or if he continues to delay his claim rather than either claim or point-blank refuse to. But I'd rather a Pom or Crazy (see below) lynch.

@Hiraki: you said you'd claim if someone else asks you to. Hello. Claim please.

--

Other stuff:


* My case on Amelia was only as I'd said in my post - it wasn't a scumread, it was a pressure vote until she delivered 'further comment on content'. I would've come back to change it sooner but life got in the way. Her posts since then read okay to me.


* I liked kunkstar's reads in 381, including his scum-read on Crazy. That made me rethink things and I'm swinging back to the Crazy-scum read I had before, due to things like how in 387 Crazy revised his reasons for finding Ellibereth's question about Furry scummy:

I think it is somewhat reasonable to think that one of the scum probably knew Furry - providing that Ellibereth didn't manipulate this situation himself by killing Furry, which was another one of my worries with the original question.

That kind of inserting extra/different reasons which weren't there at the time is a decent scumtell I think. And the motive here (trying to defend his jumping on Elli) seems clearer than the Hiraki stuff.

Unvote Ameliaslay, vote Crazy

* Pom's post (534) is terrible as Hiraki points out. "My suspicion is based on his scummy posting" is pretty circular logic.

I like this game because I'm finding townreads fairly well at the moment, and my townreads are usually better than my scumreads (beyond just there being extra town).

Red Coyote, [Low Key], iamausername, smallpeoples343, all are good townreads for me at the moment. Amrun was but slipped off due to her fence-sitting on the Hiraki stuff (the "I don't know what to make of it" post).

[imaginality]

Considering this double-voting mechanic means it's easier to get alternative wagons going, so it's potentially easier for scum to successfully deflect town's attention away from scum. So in this game I think, all else being equal, a mislynch confers more suspicion than usual onto the people who voted for town, and a scum lynch more credit to the people who voted for scum. From that perspective Crazy looks a bit less bad today than yesterday.

Vote Pomegranate

- rode the Hiraki wagon without ever adequately explaining why he was scummy in her eyes ("these posts" is not an adequate explanation)

My read on smallpeoples343 at the moment definitely contradicts the gut town feel I had from him midway through D1. I don't like his vote switch today - switching both votes so rapidly seems like trying to see which way the wind's blowing and find a good wagon to hop on. And his weakening of his stance against [Low Key] in iso34 seems like possible scum knowing [Low Key] would flip town. Having only one vote placed for the latter part of D1 is also a small point against him.

vote: smallpeoples343

@Ellibereth: why are you voting Red Coyote? Why call Ran and kunkstar likely scum but not vote them?

[imaginality]

@Red Coyote: do you think we need to get rid of smallpeoples343

simply

because of his claim (i.e. that in itself is reason to get rid of him) or only if we also find him scummy? If the latter, what do you think are the biggest points against him?

[imaginality]

Sorry for multi-posting, just to say I hear Ranmaru's request for reads on everyone and will give my other reads in the morning.

[imaginality]

My reads as promised:

Ameliaslay - minor scum read:

Another 'more later' promise. And the 'I'd like to hear about this from Pom' makes me think she could be a buddy if Pom flips scum - that's just a hunch though. Certainly, lack of contribution alone means I wouldn't cry to see her lynched.

Amrun - null read:

I initially misread her as scum in Time Travel Mafia too (where she was town) and during the night I was starting to think I've been doing a similar thing here and that my suspicions might be just her playstyle rubbing me wrongly. She seems to be actively trying to form reads based on looking at reactions. Buttt... stuff like her "I want a scumlynch today" comment is painful. Keeping an eye on her.

Crazy - scum read:

My points from yesterday still stand. For now I'm sticking with my votes on Pomegranate and smallpeoples343 - they're better lynches due to Crazy not being on the Hiraki wagon, and they'd be less of a loss to us if they turn out to be town, but I'm happy to see Crazy swing today too.

Ellibereth - minor town read:

I don't like the combo of iso28, iso30 and iso35 - one thing to have a townread on Hiraki but be in favour of his lynch for info purposes, but discouraging the idea of getting a counterwagon going on one of his own suspects seems odd. Otherwise fine though.

Empking - null read:

I find him hard to read. @Empking: why the RedCoyote vote?

iamausername - town read:

I agree with most of his reads and his reasons make sense to me. Even when I thought he was reading too much into Hiraki's 2/3-suspects thing, it came across as genuinely believed rather than scum pushing a mislynch.

kunkstar7 - town read:

in particular for cases made in isos3, 4 and 11. I feel like he is reading this game like I am.

Pomegranate - scum read:

for reasons already given.

Ranmaru - town read:

my main quibble with him D1 was a possibility of deflecting attention from Hiraki but that's nullified by Hiraki's flip. Otherwise he's been consistently proactive and pro-town.

RedCoyote - slight town read:

was feeling better about him earlier, but the comments on [Low Key] in iso 13 (quoting [Low Key]'s reads 'because it might be important later' and the 'glad he's gone') both feel a little off to me. But I like his play otherwise.

smallpeoples343 - scum read:

for reasons already given.

WeyounsLastClone - null read:

I'm not surprised he's caught a few votes, but to me he seems more like lazy town more than scum - put simply, he seems good enough to play smarter as scum. I don't use meta often (don't have time to do a good job of it usually) but in this case I'm keen to see how his play in this game fits with his meta. (Does anyone else have insight into WLC's meta?) I also don't like the way small's slipped onto this wagon. I think if small's scum, WLC's town, and right now I feel more confident in my smalls read.

[imaginality]

I don't like making assumptions based on timing of replacement requests; I think it's fairer to assume it's a null tell. I think if I remember correctly there was an MD thread about this, I'll try to find the link.

[imaginality]

Here's the link. Troll's stats on page 1 and Fishythefish's on page2 suggest replacements happen for scum and town in fairly equal proportion. Admittedly that's not looking specifically at people replacing out when under pressure, but Pom's played heaps of games, I don't think she'd replace out for that reason as scum (or town).

I do think she's scum anyhow though and my vote's staying on her slot unless the new player is obv-town enough to convince me otherwise.

[imaginality]

Remind me to comment about that point later; I want to hear what WLC has to say in response to it first.

[imaginality]

Then you should read the arguments. From how I read it, smalls was using Low Key's scumreads which were based on Hiraki being scum. We know this has been disproven, so I don't think these are too useful. For as far as I know, LK's read on me was apart from the Hiraki-wagon, a general read that would still apply if LK was alive today.

I buy this - this was how I interpreted WLC's post. Wanted to hear it from him though.

(Sidenote: yay, I'm finally breaking my bad habit of putting words in people's mouths...)

[imaginality]

Okay, screw this Pom wagon. My only read on her is of someone that obviously didn't have enough time to devote to this game, especially since she ended up requesting replacement. If she happens to be scum, then it's by luck.

Do you want to, you know, address any of the actual points made against her?

I see no particular reason to lynch her now, before her replacement comes in, at least.

No-one was suggesting that.

He never responded to the wagon on himself or came up with any decent reads. I suppose he probably will try soon, but I doubt anything he will say will change my mind at this point.

The 'I suppose he probably will try soon' here just seems like you giving yourself permission in advance to respond to anything WLC now does with "Well of course he's trying harder

now

.

[imaginality]

VTs have two uses in a traditional game of mafia. Providing an unknown variable for the scum to deal with and scumhunting. Given that small has already thrown away half of his value to us, he has to rest entirely on his ability to scumhunt.

You could say:

usefulness to town = % likelihood of being town * ability to contribute effectively (both scumhunting and using role powers if applicable)
usefulness = towniness * effectiveness
U=T*E

What I mean is, for me, I put smallpeoples343 low on both counts, so I'm definitely happy to see him lynched today. But if you just think he has low E but high T, you shouldn't be in favour of lynching him if there's someone who's lower on T (i.e. someone you think is pretty scummy).


--

I agree with you about WLC. Voting DGB and unvoting her in the same post seems more like posturing than adding anything of value, though.


I still think DGB is the right lynch today. She's a dangerous player if scum, and so far, her votes both seem off-target to me. Plus refusing to explain the scumputer seems needlessly antagonistic: if it's come up that often, surely she can cut and paste a previous explanation. And her predecessor in the slot, Pom, wasn't just lurky, but scummy.

I'm voting them both but I'd rather lynch DGB, who can run riot over the town if scum, today, rather than smalls, who is going to be much easier to pin down still on later days.

[imaginality]

I have scum reads on you and smallpeoples343.

I think you'll be harder to lynch tomorrow or later days if scum, because you're better at looking town and leading town, as scum, than smallpeoples343 is.

So I'm prioritising your lynch over his because I think you're the bigger danger and the harder to read. I think by this time D2 we'll have a clearer read of whether smallpeoples343 is town, I don't think we'll have a clearer read on you. It's not a policy lynch of a good player because it's based on Pom's scumminess. If I had a town read on her I'd feel much better about you.

Also, "I'm going to be NKed," is lolworthy. You know as well as I do that when you're still alive on D3 you'll have switched to saying, "Well scum are trying to WIFOM us about me by letting me live."

[imaginality]

@smalls: great. And?

@Ranmaru: I thought DGB's votes are off because I had townreads on both of them (and still do, btw):

With RedCoyote, she voted him for loitering after he admitted he'd been absent and promised to vote. I'd got a town feel from his previous posts, and was inclined to believe his apology was genuine. So that was just disagreeing with her read about his loitering.

Now, you could say it's fair enough if it's just a pressure vote, but RC's posted since she voted him and she hasn't commented on his post in any way. Considering she was voting him for loitering, that seems odd. So that's an additional reason (since my earlier post) why I still suspect her reason for voting him is non-genuine.

As for kunkstar, "defensiveness" is just too easy an accusation to throw around, so it's tempting for scum to base their votes on. It's vague, it often allows the suspect's response to it to be characterised as "further defensiveness", and in particular it doesn't engage with the content: does DGB regard kunkstar as acting defensively in response to good arguments against him (if so which), and/or does she feel the arguments against him were bad (if so which) but he acted defensively anyhow, as scum caught for the wrong reasons? That allows other players to agree or disagree with her more usefully.

And anyhow, I didn't think he'd been particularly defensive in any case. He answers questions people ask him directly. That's pretty normal. If you're looking for defensiveness, I feel there's more genuine defensiveness in some of Crazy's posts, for example:
iso8: "This smells like crap."
iso14: "At least you're not arguing like imaginality is, "Oh, what Crazy did was disingenuous and counter-productive." Pff."
iso15: "Also, kunkstar, can you explain why me voting Imaginality but not you would be indicative of me being scum?"

The combination of dismissiveness and actively trying to attack the arguments against him (compared with kunkstar's more passive responding to questions put to him) seems to fit the 'defensiveness' label better.

Note: I think it's a null tell in general, unless there's good meta reasons for assuming the player is more defensive as town than scum. Most often, I think it's just playstyle-related.

@DGB, next post will answer your questions.

[imaginality]

Rats, misunderstood. I just answered them all... *sigh*

Well, it'll be interesting for me to compare Ranmaru's answers with mine, at least. I've saved them as a draft. Off to bed for now.

[imaginality]

DGB voting for WLC right on replacing in would have smacked of desperation. I can absolutely see DGB not doing that in order to appear more objective and townie.

DGB + Crazy scumbuddies looks good to me right now.

smallpeoples343's latest post makes me want him lynched all the more, too.

[imaginality]

@smallpeoples343:

1. Do you agree with Quilford's reads? Any in particular that you disagree with?

2.

Quite frankly, I don't know who to suspect. I've thought that you were innocent, and maybe [Low Key] was a little too persuasive (maybe that's why mafia killed her...), then when she died, I was planning to use her suspicions, but now I feel hesitant

What made you hesitant to continue using [Low Key]'s suspicions?

3. When you voted WLC you said you 'don't know about [him]', and then recently you said 'my votes are still the same', do you still feel you 'don't know about him'?

[imaginality]

Hey people.

This WLC wagon still doesn't make much sense to me.

And DGB is trying to charm her way out of the noose Pom placed her in by calling her attackers town and not deflecting to the target (WLC) an obv-scum would do in her position. And I laughed to see her criticising Ranmaru's questions... then hitting him with a wall of questions, and responding to his answers only with a 'yeah Ran's town'.

Seriously. I like playing with DGB too. But not when she's scum.

As for my other vote, here's why the smallpeoples343 wagon deserves to have more than just me and Red Coyote on it.

Nine reasons why smallpeoples343 is scummy:

1. Plenty of contentless posts (despite claiming he tries not to post fluff (iso9)), including:
iso3: Scumhunting in RVS is fun. <insert cryptic message here to say that I am a Townie>
iso20: Note: Why does it seem the only time I'm active, is when everyone is not posting?
iso24: Wow. A 5/6 post talk about why you guys called me smalls. I feel so special (and partially small. )
iso35: I am sorry if I am a little inactive, I am currently getting ready my game for Alpha Phi Sigma (the other place I play at).
iso36: I'm here, I'm here. Just looking at what's going on. Quiet observation.
iso43: Sorry guys, for being offline so much. I'm back!
iso45: Hello Quilford!
iso46: LOL Quilford.

2. Lots and lots of fence-sitting and vague reads:
iso9: it seems to me like Hiraki is scum...I don't know if it's good enough to be a vote
iso17: I'm a little confused now, as to my plan of action.
iso18: Rarnmaru and LK are talking a lot and scumhunting, but all I can say is don't rule out the chance that they could be scum, although it seems unlikely that both are scum.
iso34: Elli... I haven't really focused that much on her/his posts. Thinking about it, I should probably have read them more. I'll post an analysis of her later.
iso34: Hiraki, I've already denounced as scum, for the same reasons as pretty much everyone else. After conversing with [Low Key] a little bit, I'm a littlenot so sure.
iso34: Kunkstar, he seems to be in and out and have phases of activity and inactivity (which I could say for myself). He seems to be another one of those wagons that are mostly legit. Again, I'll post an analysis of this later, focusing on Kunkstar's posts and attacks.
iso41: Quite frankly, I don't know who to suspect.
iso41: I don't know about WLC.
iso47: Ehh... kinda. [asked if he still 'doesn't know' about WLC]

3. Disowning his reason for his RC vote:
iso8: RC is not being voted by anyone, but has one vote on me. (He also has the best mafia performance)
iso14: The fact that no one was even voting him (though he was before) made me think he was possibly a very good mafia. Also,

that wasn't the reason

, just something to add to it.

4. His double-vote-switching early on D2 seems unlikely to come from a townie with actual reads, more likely from scum looking for a good place for votes. (It also contradicts his reluctance to place a second vote D1, let alone switch votes.)

5. smallpeople343's weakening stance against Hiraki late in D1 (iso34 above) while staying on Hiraki's wagon looks like scum with inside knowledge of the impending townflip.

6. He was

still only using one vote

at the time he said this:

smalls, why are you only using one of your votes?

This was a question a long time ago, but I just got on, so I was still deciding who I should put my second vote on.

7. A mild case of 'Why me':
iso40: Why do you guys target me, out of all the people who were using the fact that [Low Key] was killed to use?

8. The contradiction between his apathy and his urgency (both statements from times he was at L-1):
iso6: Hmm... anything I say otherwise is probably going to be countered by some mafia person who hammers me, so I guess that's it. I might post an analysis of some players later today.
iso11: Also, since someone is probably going to lynch me soon, I'm trying to find scum to suggest people to lynch after people find out that I was just a Townie. I'll post one soon. Until then, please don't hammer.

9. Promises undelivered:

iso6: I might post an analysis of some players later today.
iso11: I'll post [a list of suspects] soon.
iso34: Elli...I'll post an analysis of her later.
iso34: kunkstar...Again, I'll post an analysis of this later.

[imaginality]

tl;dr: Moar votes on DGB and smalls plz.

And people with townreads on smalls need to say which of the above points they disagree with.

[imaginality]

You could investigate me instead of vig'ing me you know. Being vig'ed is humiliating. Especially with my history of being Nk'd by the scum. Though Ranmaru's pants-on-head is an unfortunate insurance policy against that happening.

Oh, so you're a godfather? Good to know.

Hmm. There could be something to that. DGB Godfather + More pressure returning on DGB, up to L-2 again = scumbuddy quickhammers WLC to protect DGB?

[imaginality]

Re. your question in iso126, Ranmaru ("Btw what are your thoughts on Elli and Empking?"):

Ellibereth seems townish to me - his parting question to Pom sounded genuinely annoyed-town.
Empking, always hard to read, seemed maybe null D1, but he's contributed pretty much less than zero D2. He's among my suspects now but maybe 5th behind DGB, smalls, Crazy, and kunkstar - who I didn't think was scummy 'til now, but unless WLC flips scum (doesn't seem likely) this hammer is definitely really bad.

[imaginality]

Vote: Kunkstar

Vote: DGB

This is goodposting.

Vote: kunkstar7

It's hard to think of anything that can excuse quick-hammering a player who was V/LA and hadn't claimed.

Vote: DGB

WIFOMing GF, and kunkstar's buddy.


Does anyone know what a 'thrillseeker' does?

@Mod: can you tell us what a 'thrillseeker' does?

[imaginality]

Kunkstar... I'd say scum.

And yet you vote DGB 'to be normal and join the others'?

Grr. I still think DGB is scum, and I guess smallpeoples343 could be bussing with this lazy-scummy post. But that's a stretch if DGB is scum GF or other scum PR. I think smallpeople343's post fits more neatly with a DGB town, kunkstar7 + smallpeoples343 scum scenario. The 'vote town but list your buddy as your second (in this game third) suspect' approach.

Taking that into account, I think kunkstar7 should be lynched today ahead of DGB, since he's still scummy under either scenario.


Oh hey, Empking's vote has put kunkstar7 at L-1. No quick-hammers please.


@kunkstar7: care to claim?

[imaginality]

Erm... you're only at L-2...?

[imaginality]

Vote: DGB

Those "I'm lynched, oh woe is town" posts read as really fake. I just don't buy DGB confusing L-2 with a hammer.
And then hammering kunkstar7 without even giving him the chance to make another post is a clear sign of a scumbuddy already knowing he's scum.

Vote: Crazy

Ranmaru's been making sense to me and Crazy looked pretty bad to me D1. I'm happy to apply some pressure to him. But I really think today should be a DGB lynch, cos she looks ridiculously scummy now.


@Ranmaru: what do you think of my comment about smallpeoples343 probably not being scum with DGB? Also, did iamausername say anything in your mason chat last night worth sharing?

[imaginality]

I am interested in the mason's town read... I can't think of any legitimate reason for a mason to not give a reason RC is supposedly town.

This kind of fishing seems scummy.

FoS: Amrun.

Ranmaru said he's not going to give the reason. It's not worth speculating about it.

[imaginality]

Unvote: Crazy

Don't want to risk today being as short as yesterday. Empking and HackerHuck haven't even posted yet.

[imaginality]

vote: Crazy
vote: Ranmaru

Amrun is my alternate.

I like DGB's to do list - I think I'll get to that once I'm more up to speed.

This is the scum's only post so far.

He'd been in the game less than 24 hours at that point.
You quickhammered less than 24 hours after that post of his.
This day has been open less 24 hours.

Give him a chance, hey?

[imaginality]

@Crazy: What's your read on DGB today?

[imaginality]

Vote: smallpeoples343

(L-2)

Good catch, Ranmaru.

I have no idea how smalls and DGB have both managed to avoid being lynched up to now, considering they've both been scummy pretty much throughout this game.

[imaginality]

My reads at the moment:

Towniest
---
imaginality
Ranmaru
HackerHuck
Quilford
Empking
Amrun
Crazy
smallpeoples343
DrippingGoofball
---
Scummiest

[imaginality]

@Crazy: What Ranmaru caught was smallpeoples343 saying he would have voted DGB if she wasn't at L-2, but then voting HackerHuck, who was

also

at L-2. I don't find it likely he miscounted (if he's worried enough to not put someone at L-1, he's worried enough to count the votes on the other person he's about to vote, too), and I think there could well be scumminess behind the difference. Though that's not the only reason for me voting him - I gave a bunch of reasons a while ago and some of those still apply.

(Incidentally, I also don't think DGB genuinely got confused between L-2 and hammer votes

three times

. I think the 'oh woe you lynched me I'm town' ones were attempts to change people's reads on her, and the latest one was just to make the earlier ones seem more believable by 'miscounting' someone else's votes rather than hers.)

As for why DGB is scum despite not going for WLC, it's simple risk-reward:

1. Voting WLC and pushing his lynch through: avoids getting lynched that day, but then she almost certainly gets lynched as obvscum the next day. Net result: one town for one scum. Low risk low reward.
2. Calling WLC town: might get lynched that day, but if she can get out of being lynched, she has a good chance of looking very town because of that action. Net result: some chance of getting lynched + some chance of being able to gain a lot of towncred and stay alive to endgame. Higher risk, higher reward.

DGB doesn't strike me as a low-risk player. And she mentioned how she'd come into some other game and saved herself from being at L-1, talking people into changing their opinions on her within a page or so, so I think she'd come into this game backing herself to do the same. (Being a recent replacement makes it easier to pull off, too, since some players are inclined to give replacements time to prove themselves.)

[imaginality]

Does anyone have a strong objection to a Quilford wagon?

When DGB, smallpeoples343 and you are all still alive? Yes.

[imaginality]

@ the people voting HackerHuck (Amrun, DGB, smalls):

Do you think Ranmaru is scum and lying about having reasons to believe HackerHuck to be town? If you have a townread on Ranmaru, then why are you still voting HackerHuck given what Ranmaru said rather than waiting til things become clearer?

[imaginality]

Also, Crazy is L-1 at the moment.

I was suspicious of him D1 for a few reasons. He stayed off the Hiraki wagon - but his votes were also on town (WLC and me) so I'm not giving him any credit for that anymore. I didn't like his reasons for his WLC votes and pressure, and he did push hard in getting WLC mislynched. He's tied with likely-scum DGB (defending her with the "she's town if WLC flips town" line at the time she came in and more recently too (I notice he's not trying to defend any of her other actions like her AtE or her hammering kunkstar7 without waiting for a claim). He's also tied with known-scum kunkstar7, having defended him. It might be slightly early in the day still, but all in all I'm considering hammering Crazy.

So,
@Crazy: claim please.

[imaginality]

Wow, did smalls really just vote Ranmaru?

Like, seriously?

I dunno... if he

didn't

forget Ranmaru is mason, that seems more dumb than scum. Scum can't seriously think trying to push a wagon on a non-counter-claimed mason is a good idea.

On the other hand, if he

did

forget Ranmaru is mason, that seems more scummy. Town trying to figure out who else is town are more likely to remember that than scum who know the town are everyone but them.

Which is it smalls, are you dumb or scum?

[imaginality]

So, you know Ranmaru is an un-counter-claimed mason?

So, what's your reason for voting him?

[imaginality]

@Crazy, you can hold off from claiming while smalls explains his reason for voting someone he knows to have claimed mason.

[imaginality]

@Crazy: why didn't you vote Quilford rather than just test the waters with a question to others?

Is your townread on DGB based solely on her not calling WLC scum or do you think her appeals to emotion and quick-hammering of kunkstar7 are also town-flavoured?

Who else do you suspect aside from Quilford?

[imaginality]

What's your read of smalls, Amrun?


@Crazy:

My town read on DGB is largely based on her not calling WLC scum, yes. I saw your low risk/reward vs. high risk/reward crap, and the "high reward" scenario would only apply if everyone in this game loves to WIFOM as much as I do. And they don't, so it was hardly a "high reward" at all.

I still think scum-DGB would go for that gamble rather than just hammer WLC and accept she's getting lynched the next day.

-Appeal to Emotion is never a scum-tell as far as I'm concerned, since we're all a bunch of hardened sociopaths that aren't really going to be swayed by appeals to emotion. I never see anyone going "Aww, I really don't want to hurt his feelings by lynching him." Why is AtE a scum-tell for you?

I view AtE as a scumtell because (a) we're not in fact all hardened sociopaths, (b) AtE can work without having such an obvious stated-out-loud effect as in your example (it can work by more subtly influencing others' reads, and by leading people to privately fear being called an idiot post-game if they hammer and the AtE-er is town), (c) when used by better/stronger players it carries overtones of appeal to authority ("You're all idiots for wanting to lynch me because I'm the best player here and I say I'm not scum") so it's scummier than from a newbie.

DGB's quickhammer of Kunkstar would be bad scum play since it stopped Kunkstar from claiming a post restriction

Even if DGB turns out to be GF or other scum power role?

[imaginality]

Re. last sentence - bearing in mind that if kunkstar7 hadn't been lynched that day, DGB probably would have.

[imaginality]

@Quilford:

1. So vote DGB.
2. What are the best reasons for thinking Empking's scum?

I'm having doubts about smalls just because with each post, it's getting increasingly hard to believe scum would be so... oblivious. I feel like smalls-scum asked about his voting an uncounterclaimed mason would have played the "oh I'm so silly I forgot he's mason" card.

Unvote: smallpeoples343

I'll have another look at Empking's iso but unless I see something I didn't last time, my vote's going back on Crazy.

[imaginality]

Plus, notice the change of his town towards people on his wagon, and the first time he was wagoned. Did he vote anyone?

It's not quite clear to me what you mean here.

[imaginality]

Second scum is Imaginality (horribly, horribly under the radar).

By 'under the radar', do you mean:

(a) trying to slide by without doing much scum-hunting,
(b) not being under suspicion when there are reasons why I should be under more suspicion, or
(c) not being under suspicion in itself being suspicious?

If you mean (a), that I'm trying to slide by unnoticed, I'd dispute that. I think I've been fairly actively involved in this game, in particular the pressure I've put on Pom/DGB and Crazy. smallpeoples343.
If you mean (b), that other people should be suspecting me more, I want to hear your reasons for that.
If you mean (c), that the lack of suspicion on me is what's making you suspicious in itself, well, that's a cousin to the 'too townie' fallacy. In any case, it's not something I can address, since I'm not responsible for others' reads of me.

--

The Quilford case, I think Tar makes reasonable points, and Quilford's reaction to it reads bad to me. I'm not against more pressure on him tomorrow, but I'm reluctant to lynch outside DGB or Crazy today.

DGB and Crazy are scummy independently of each other but also make a very possible pairing. Both have links to kunkstar7 (Crazy for defending him, DGB because kunkstar7's quickhammers arguably protected her from being lynched both days).

As for smallpeoples343, I take Crazy's point that smalls could be dumb

and

scum, and Ranmaru made some good points last page comparing smalls D1 play with later days. So I still see smalls as a good prospect of flipping scum, but Crazy and DGB are better ones. And I think a Crazy scumflip would point to smalls-town, while a DGB townflip would point to smalls-scum and a DGB scumflip would point to smalls-town (especially if DGB flips scum power role), so I feel like we'd have a stronger read on him tomorrow as a result of lynching Crazy or DGB.

Vote: Crazy

L-1


@Tarhalindur: what are your reads on DGB and Crazy?

[imaginality]

@DGB re. smallpeoples343 - I'm basing that on his iso51 (post 904) where he jumped on your wagon for a bad reason while listing kunkstar7 in his other suspects. Like I said in 905, I think if he's scum, that particular post of his fits better with DGB-town than DGB-scum. I don't feel it's that likely the two of you are scum together. (Same with Crazy and smalls.)

[imaginality]

(By 'same' I mean I don't think they're scum together, either.)

Given I have scum reads on all three of you, I think I'm more likely right about you-scum and Crazy-scum and wrong about smalls, than right about smalls-scum and wrong about you and Crazy.

[imaginality]

Sorry for absence. Going to comment on what's happened since I last posted shortly. I'll start with DGB's latest nonsense though:

Wanting to lynch IC players to confirm smalls' alignment for one...

This is a misrep. I've clearly stated I want to lynch you and/or Crazy because you're both scummy. I've said this on numerous occasions. The fact lynching either of you would help make smallpeoples343's slot is just a bonus.

His absence on most wagons is worrisome.

I was on the one wagon to flip scum. And I would've been on a second scum-flip too if people hadn't wussed out on lynching you when you first replaced in for Pom-scum.

[imaginality]

Tarhalindur stuff

Crazy's been pushing imaginality. IMAGINALITY. And his case is quite solid.

Give me a summary of what you see as the best bits of his case against me.

1244: "Go back and look at snails' reaction to being wagoned D1. He's newbtown. Get your pants off your head." - what do you think of Ranmaru's point about the difference between smalls' reaction D1 and today as suspicious?

About Tarhalindur's Crazy-town examples:

(numbered for convenience)

1219:
1. Crazy didn't really follow up on that contradiction of kunkstar7's, just commented on it - could be scum distancing.
2. Crazy's read on the Pom wagon fits neatly with being a Pom-scumbuddy taking advantage of Pom replacing out to stall the momentum of the wagon against her.
3. Crazy is over-playing the strength of his point. He's claiming it to be a cast-iron town-tell on DGB. It's not. SCUM NOT GOING FOR THE EASY OPTION MAKES SENSE SOMETIMES. DGB is smart, and cool under pressure (her rage this game is disingenuous). If Crazy recognised this and used it as a weak town tell rather than a strong one, that would look more genuine. To me, he's overplaying it in DGB's defense.
1220:
4. "I don't think his hammering was necessarily a scum-tell. If anything, it's a slight town-tell, since it drew unnecessary focus towards him." What, you mean scum would choose not to go for the obviously advantageous option, in order to look less suspicious?

Then why does he say the opposite about DGB's actions in point 3?

The contradiction between his reasoning here and his reasoning there is blatant. Here he's defending known-scum kunkstar, there he's using the opposite logic to defend DGB.
5. I agree here, the Ranmaru case seems like it could be genuinely believed by Crazy-town.
6. The points Crazy makes about Quilford's possible connections to kunkstar7 are okay. There's scum-motive to look for that kind of stuff though, as much as town. Crazy-scum would love to tie town to kunkstar7. So I don't see this post as proving Crazy is town.
7. Crazy's staying off DGB because they're buddies. He's staying off you because anyone able to read between the lines of Ranmaru's posts can see it'll be hard to push through a mislynch on you.
8. This post of Crazy's is okay.

Overall, this is not convincing. In particular, the contradiction between Crazy's reasoning in 3 and 4 is awful, and further evidence of Crazy-scum defending his buddies any which way he can.

Other Crazy stuff

Crazy in 1179: in response to Ranmaru's "Why are you voting Empking?" he says "I'm voting Empking because I think he is scum. See my earlier posts for more reasons." I don't think town would be as likely as scum to say the first sentence, because town are pretty much always voting someone because they think they're scummy. So they'd hear that question as asking for the reasons for their scumread. Scum however would be more likely to want to defend their vote in this "because he's scum - see, I'm scumhunting, really, honest I am" kind of way.

Amrun made a good point during her argument with Crazy about point 3 above, that Crazy seems too sure about what was going through DGB's head.

Crazy 1137: "Seriously? You want to lynch me or DGB to get a better read on Smalls?" - same misrep as DGB made (see my previous post).

DGB stuff

More bad posting from DGB in post 1173:

Do people honestly think that "I'm town" is genuinely coming out of DGB's mouth. She's being insincere. That's a bulletproof scum tell.

Pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffft

It's interesting that you don't question my sincerity that you're scum.

I understasnd that town can sincerely think I'm scum.

So, you're saying I'm town.

And that I

sincerely

think you're scum.

Could it be because you are scum?

Misreps Empking's statement, and the 'could it be' phrasing of the rhetorical question seems like a scum mannerism - I feel like she knows the answer's no (not just that Empking will say no, but that he's not scum).

1225/1226 - after Tar called her town for initially not buddying him, now she starts to buddy him
1236 - I agree with Tar that this raises my hackles

Summary

Amrun's good posts on the last few pages mean she's now a clearer town read to me. With Ranmaru looking obv-town, and Tarhalindur seeming town too, if we have three scum, I think the two remaining scum are either {DGB, Crazy}, or {smalls, Quilford/Empking}.

My votes remain the same. If smallpeoples343's replacement looks bad to null, I'd be okay with lynching that slot, but I'm not feeling sure enough to back either a Quilford or Empking lynch today.

[imaginality]

DGB, you've played a heap of games - plenty more than enough to be more than used to situations where town's in the process of losing due to its own stupidity (as you claim to see this game being an example of) and particular players being terribly wayward with their scumdars (as you claim to see Ranmaru being). If being wrongfully suspected by idiotic townies genuinely irritates you to the point of quitting (as you claim to be at), you'd have retired from playing ages ago.

So quit pretending to be the wounded, wronged townie struggling to put up with the glaring stupidity of the foolish townsfolk around her. You're scum, annoyed you weren't able to come in, take control, and lead the town to its destruction.

[imaginality]

I see DGB is trying to appear vaguely useful so as to stave off being lynched for another day. Let's take a look:

My reads as promised

Full disclosure: I changed the order. removed the reasons, and added headings.

This is purely rhetorical and does nothing to demonstrate why imaginality might be scum.

FTFY. If I was lynched and flipped scum, it'd be useful to look at the distribution of my reads, maybe. But all you've shown here is that I had a town read on kunkstar7 at the start of D2. For good reason - his Day 1 posts read well. And if you're saying I had several weak town and weak scum reads - yes. I was relatively unsure about various people at that point. Since then I've developed clearer reads on most people.

Empking, always hard to read, seemed maybe null D1, but he's contributed pretty much less than zero D2. He's among my suspects now but maybe 5th behind DGB, smalls, Crazy, and kunkstar - who I didn't think was scummy 'til now, but unless WLC flips scum (doesn't seem likely) this hammer is definitely really bad.

It took that crap hammer to make imaginality find kunkstar "REALLY BAD."
Empking is now a suspect but ooooooooooooooh, FIFTH, I kid you not,

FIFTH

behind a whole bunch of players. He suspects Empking more, but imaginality has to put him in fifth position. Why bother? This is token suspicion at its best.

That hammer was UBERSCUMMY. There was no possible town motivation to hammer WLC before he claimed. None.
And are you complaining about me clearly suspecting 5 people now, when you complained about me having a bunch of weak reads earlier? Really? Also, you conveniently ignore the fact this comment on Empking was

in response to Ranmaru asking me my read on Empking.

I'm not sure how else I could've answered the question except by saying which position he was at in my list at the time.

Amrun's good posts on the last few pages mean she's now a clearer town read to me. With Ranmaru looking obv-town, and

Tarhalindur seeming town too

, if we have three scum, I think the two remaining scum are either {DGB, Crazy}, or {smalls, Quilford/Empking}.

This is interesting.

Imaginality also had RedCoyote as town

, but in iso his comments on RedCoyote are very wishywashy.

"@Ellibereth: why are you voting

Red Coyote

? "
"

@Red Coyote:

do you think we need to get rid of smallpeoples343 simply because of his claim"

Talking IIoA with

RedCoyote:

"usefulness to town = % likelihood of being town * ability to contribute effectively (both scumhunting and using role powers if applicable) usefulness = towniness * effectiveness U=T*E"

I had a "slight town" read on RedCoyote because I've played with him before and felt his play was consistent with here, and he was making sense to me, read-wise. I feel more confident he's town now, not least because of known-town Ranmaru's confidence in his mason buddy's reason for that slot being town. Tarhalindur actually scumhunting helps, too.

I'm voting them both but I'd rather lynch DGB, who can run riot over the town if scum,

See, that's one of those logical snags. Why isn't he also saying in the same breath that I'm a tremendous asset to town? And he doesn't say

"she's scum and could run a riot over the town"

he says "

IF

scum." IF.

I said 'if' because I

don't

know

you're scum. I didn't say "but she can be really helpful as town" because I

did/do

think

you're scum. Like, I'd probably have said I was 80% sure you're scum. 80% chance of very bad stuff clearly outweighed the 20% chance of very good stuff. If I'd felt more 50-50 about you then I'd have taken your asset-as-town-ness into consideration.

...You're scum, annoyed you weren't able to come in, take control, and lead the town to its destruction.

imaginality is one of the scumbags leaving Ranmaru alive everyday to decimate the town with krapreads.

Imaginality has been EXTRAORDINARILY CONSISTENT. This is a mega-scumtell. His "reads" pretty much do not ever waver. There is an instance of unvoting Crazy, but then he revotes later. He was suspicious of my predecessor Pomegranate since the RVS. He never, ever bothered to give me a chance. Imaginality was completely entrenched in finding me scum - there is absolutely no amount of town tells I can drop to make Mr.ConsistentScum change his mind.

Is that how it's looked? To me, I've wavered in my reads on smalls and Crazy, still find Quilford and Empking tricky to read, and thought Amrun was suspicious for a bit before lately having a townread on her. I've been consistently townreading Ranmaru and Tarhalindur's slot, admittedly.

And my read on you has stuck throughout because Pom's scumminess had already dug you into a hole, and since then your play has been based nearly entirely on this:

DGB's scumposting algorithm

1. Roll a D20
2. Act accordingly:

1: threaten to retire
2-5: Scumputer time!
6-8: Insult Ranmaru's intelligence
9-11: Insult the whole town's intelligence
12-13: Predict town loss
14-18: Appeal to emotion
19-20: Fake being hammered

Kunkstar... I'd say scum.

And yet you vote DGB 'to be normal and join the others'?

Grr. I still think DGB is scum, and I guess smallpeoples343 could be bussing with this lazy-scummy post. But that's a stretch if DGB is scum GF or other scum PR. I think smallpeople343's post fits more neatly with a DGB town, kunkstar7 + smallpeoples343 scum scenario. The 'vote town but list your buddy as your second (in this game third) suspect' approach.

Taking that into account, I think kunkstar7 should be lynched today ahead of DGB, since he's still scummy under either scenario.

Here, he berates smalls for voting me, and actually considers the possibility that I may be town for a minute, still hanging on to that stupid theory that I'm a GF. Now, even though imaginality has smalls on this scumlist, he is not voting smalls. He's voting me instead, presumably because I'm the key to figure out smalls' alignment, though in his post, the logical step would be the reverse... another logic snag. And yet... as he considers the possibility, at last, that I'm town... he still hangs on to his CONSISTENT STANCE: "I still think DGB is scum" - so despite calling it a stretch in the same sentence, he clearly announces that smalls is frikkin bus'ing me, of all things.

It wasn't my clearest post but basically what I was saying there was:

1. smalls looks scummy, but I don't think he's scum with DGB - it's an either-or deal here
2. so let's lynch kunkstar7 today, because he's also pretty scummy, and could be scum with either of them
3. meanwhile my other vote's on DGB because I think she's scummier than smalls

Here's a defense of kunkstar:

Oh hey, Empking's vote has put kunkstar7 at L-1. No quick-hammers please.

Hey. I apologize for hammering your buddy before he had a chance to fakeclaim.

You claim hammering kunkstar7 without letting him claim was townish. No. Town didn't know for sure kunkstar7 was scum. Waiting for the claim is pro-town (deadline was waaay off). You, though, knew he's scum and thought, "Woohoo, I'll get myself some townpoints for hammering scum!"

============================

TL;DR - extraordinarily and un-naturally consistent, most reads are wishy-washy, logical stream only considering foregone conclusions and not other side of coin, will not change his mind even if his own "logic" dictates that he should, pretty much hasn't changed his mind on anything all game, softly protective of kunkstar despite his horrid hammer the day before.

I annoyed DGB-scum by not letting up on trying to get her lynched, some of my earlyish reads were weak rather than strong reads, I weighted conclusions according to likelihood, I used reads of interactions to narrow down scumpairing possibilities, I 'protected' kunkstar7 by... erm... saying we should lynch him and voting for him.

[imaginality]

I'm not feeling sure enough to back either a Quilford or Empking lynch today.

Why are you worried about me hammering Quilford, DGB, when I said this just before? After all it's not like I ever change my reads, according to you...

Okay, to the wall! Each point is lettered this time for ease of reference and less wall-i-ness later.

It demonstrates that the bulk of your "reads" are null-to nullish. It was NOT rhetorical.

Minor scum and minor town reads aren't null. They mean I think the player is town or scum but I'm less sure than I am about other players. In the post DGB's talking about, on Ameliaslay (minor scum read) I said "I wouldn't cry to see her lynched." That's not 'null-ish'. On my minor town reads, Ellibereth and RedCoyote, I specifically said what it was that held me back from giving a stronger town read on them - that's not 'null-ish'. I only had three actual null reads (Amrun, Empking and WLC (and for each of them, I said why I was having trouble deciding)). Out of 12 players, and at the start of D2, that's not a lot.

[kunkstar's] Day 1 posts read well.

Erm, no, his FEW posts were poor to the point of hammering him without a chance to fakeclaim.

Please support your statement that kunkstar's Day 1 posts "read well" and why your read remained unchanged after Day 1, and why it took kunkstar's second claimless hammer to finally vote him with some reluctance.

kunkstar7 - town read: in particular for cases made in isos3, 4 and 11.

That was what I said at the time. I'm not going to retcon more reasons in. Take a look at those posts, they all look(ed) town to me.

And are you complaining about me clearly suspecting 5 people now, when you complained about me having a bunch of weak reads earlier?

Nope, in fact, fifth position means you pretty much won't vote him.

He was in 5th position for me when Ranmaru asked me about him. I didn't say I was thinking of voting him - I had four better suspects at the time. Should I have lied and said he's higher up my list???

I really fail to see how else I could have answered that question. What would you do if someone asks

you

about

your

5th-highest suspect?

Really? Also, you conveniently ignore the fact this comment on Empking was

in response to Ranmaru asking me my read on Empking.

I'm not sure how else I could've answered the question except by saying which position he was at in my list at the time.

It's still a way of saying you won't vote him.

PLUS - Empking was behind "

DGB, smalls, Crazy, and kunkstar"

(kunkstar being a FORCED scumread at that point, calling him town became untenable), and three players you have CONTINUALLY declared were scum, smalls, Crazy and myself.

Responded to under H.

I had a "slight town" read on RedCoyote because I've played with him before and felt his play was consistent with here, and he was making sense to me, read-wise. I feel more confident he's town now, not least because of known-town Ranmaru's confidence in his mason buddy's reason for that slot being town. Tarhalindur actually scumhunting helps, too.

And Tar disappeared after the suspicion went away, but you can't change your mind, that's inconsistent, right?

Meh, considering he's recently replaced in it's too early to say if that particular absence is an abberation from his usual activity or not. If it becomes a pattern of "active when attacked, away when ignored" then sure, that's scummy. But until then, I have a fairly high tolerance for minor spells of inconsistent activity because it's something I'm aware I can be guilty of regardless of alignment, so I see it fairly null.

I said 'if' because I

don't

know

you're scum. I didn't say "but she can be really helpful as town" because I

did/do

think

you're scum. Like, I'd probably have said I was 80% sure you're scum. 80% chance of very bad stuff clearly outweighed the 20% chance of very good stuff. If I'd felt more 50-50 about you then I'd have taken your asset-as-town-ness into consideration.

That's a very scumvenient excuse, you should still have considered the 20% chance.

I did consider it - it was clearly outweighed by the much larger chance you're scum. I was saying, "Lynch DGB because she's probably scum and that's bad news for us." Also, I take it your silence in response to the 'IF' part means you agree my 'IF' wasn't scummy.

You are unvarying in your fake consistency, and your stubborn pushing of a scummy agenda of defending some buddies (kunkstar), bus'ing one (possibly smalls) ans weakly distancing from the third (Empking).

This guesswork is pointless because it does nothing to strengthen your case on me, it's only useful after someone's flipped scum, and I'm going to flip town if I'm lynched.

Is that how it's looked? To me, I've wavered in my reads on smalls and Crazy, still find Quilford and Empking tricky to read, and thought Amrun was suspicious for a bit before lately having a townread on her. I've been consistently townreading Ranmaru and Tarhalindur's slot, admittedly.

Oh really. Besides the tiny unvote on Crazy, where have you wavered on smalls? Quilford & Empking tricky to read, that's just keeping YOUR SCUMOPTIONS OPEN, it's not wavering. It's not wavering.

On smalls, times when I've wavered on him:
iso2: "I buy small's play and claim as having that town scent to it. Sadly"
iso5: "Red Coyote, [Low Key], iamausername, smallpeoples343, all are good townreads for me at the moment"
iso45: "I'm having doubts about smalls just because with each post, it's getting increasingly hard to believe scum would be so... oblivious. I feel like smalls-scum asked about his voting an uncounterclaimed mason would have played the "oh I'm so silly I forgot he's mason" card."
iso47: "I think a Crazy scumflip would point to smalls-town[...] and a DGB scumflip would point to smalls-town"

On Crazy, times when I've wavered on him:
iso2: "Crazy's looked a bit better since earlier, which leads me to reinterpret his jumping on Ellibereth's question as blundering town rather than scum."
iso6: "Crazy looks a bit less bad today than yesterday [for being off the Hiraki wagon]."

but since then I haven't had reason to lessen my suspicion on him. (See my thoughts about Tarhalindur's Crazy-town posts for example.) And the Crazy-DGB buddies theory has been looking increasingly likely.

On Amrun, when my reads have wavered on her:
iso2: "I have a gut town read on Amrun"
iso5: "Amrun was [in my townreads] but [has] slipped off due to her fence-sitting"
iso9: "Amrun - null read"
iso29: "This kind of fishing seems scummy. FoS: Amrun."
iso51: "Amrun's good posts on the last few pages mean she's now a clearer town read to me."

And my read on you has stuck throughout because Pom's scumminess had already dug you into a hole, and since then your play has been based nearly entirely on this:

DGB's scumposting algorithm

1. Roll a D20
2. Act accordingly:

1: threaten to retire
2-5: Scumputer time!
6-8: Insult Ranmaru's intelligence
9-11: Insult the whole town's intelligence
12-13: Predict town loss
14-18: Appeal to emotion
19-20: Fake being hammered

OK, how is that scummy?

(i)I'm insulting Ranmaru-MASON-of-the-godawful-town-reads and offending him at every opportunity, HOW IS THAT SCUMMY?

Like, how is this helping my scum goal to survive to endgame, compared to, say, being consistent and (ii) having a lot of vague reads,

like you

???
(iii)How is the scumputer scummy? I'd like to hear your reasons.
(iv)How is insulting the town's intelligence scummy? Is there a snowball's chance that this will help people get off my back?
(v)How is predicting a town loss scummy?
(vi)How is AtE scummy, are you relying on cheap wikitells?
(vii)How is faking being hammered scummy?

(letters added)
Some of it's more anti-town than scummy - what's scummy is how it's been in lieu of actually doing much scumhunting. This case you've put together against me is too little, too late - and on town, to boot.

Specific points:
(i) It's anti-town behaviour. Wasted posts. Town should be making a case, or critiquing a case, not just yelling and expecting people to change their minds
(ii) My three null reads D2, and two I'm unsure of now, isn't "lots"
(iii) It's lazy - an easy way to seem like you're contributing more than you actually are rather than do some actual scumhunting. Tarhalindur's questioned its accuracy, and you yourself have said it conflicts with your reads (e.g. iso52)
(iv) Anger can sometimes sway weak players, and it's a cheap way of trying to appear like you care, when the people who do care are the ones doing the scumhunting
(v) Another cheap way of trying to appear like you care. In this game, it comes across as pretty insincere
(vi) In this game, you seem exaggeratedly fraught and the base emotion behind your posts seems like scum angry about being under constant attack. Your "WOE IS ME LYNCH ME NAO" and "OHH NOES I WAS HAMMERED, YOU'RE ALL GONNA LOSE" type posts seem insincere to me
(vii) Each time you took the chance to try to throw in some response to it of the "YOU STUPID TOWNIES, THIS GAME MADE ME SO ANGRY AND NOW YOU'RE DOOMED WITHOUT ME" kind, which seems to me like hoping someone will read your reaction to 'being hammered' as town

Where do you get this roll D20 business - UNLIKE YOU, I change my mind when the evidence is there.

It's just for the lolz. I was actually going to draw a flowchart for even more lolz. But I got lazy.

AND STILL

I could have frikkin hammered Quilford, he thinks I'm scum, and I'd be out of a pickle. BUT I WANT TO LYNCH SCUM

not save my own KEISTER

. Again.

The more you can get town to do the dirty work of mislynching for you, the longer you get to live. You not lynching him here (if he's town) is like you not voting WLC D2.

Kunkstar... I'd say scum.

And yet you vote DGB 'to be normal and join the others'?

Grr. I still think DGB is scum, and I guess smallpeoples343 could be bussing with this lazy-scummy post. But that's a stretch if DGB is scum GF or other scum PR. I think smallpeople343's post fits more neatly with a DGB town, kunkstar7 + smallpeoples343 scum scenario. The 'vote town but list your buddy as your second (in this game third) suspect' approach.

Taking that into account, I think kunkstar7 should be lynched today ahead of DGB, since he's still scummy under either scenario.

Here, he berates smalls for voting me, and actually considers the possibility that I may be town for a minute, still hanging on to that stupid theory that I'm a GF. Now, even though imaginality has smalls on this scumlist, he is not voting smalls. He's voting me instead, presumably because I'm the key to figure out smalls' alignment, though in his post, the logical step would be the reverse... another logic snag. And yet... as he considers the possibility, at last, that I'm town... he still hangs on to his CONSISTENT STANCE: "I still think DGB is scum" - so despite calling it a stretch in the same sentence, he clearly announces that smalls is frikkin bus'ing me, of all things.

It wasn't my clearest post but basically what I was saying there was:

1. smalls looks scummy, but I don't think he's scum with DGB - it's an either-or deal here
2. so let's lynch kunkstar7 today, because he's also pretty scummy, and could be scum with either of them
3. meanwhile my other vote's on DGB because I think she's scummier than smalls

It is not possible for be to be more town than I am in this game. You don't sound stupid; why you haven't figured out that I'm town leads me to believe that you don't want to read me as town, because as scum, you'd be closing a lynch option for yourself, and you don't want to lynch your buddy Empking.

Wow, way to shift the goalposts. You claimed that post was me contradicting myself and getting tangled up. It was one of your main points against me. I clarified it to show the logic behind it. You... shift to talking about how you're town.

You claim hammering kunkstar7 without letting him claim was townish. No.

READ MY SIG. It was totally 100% townish. If we were scum together, you can bet your bottom dollar that I would have made him have a fakeclaim ready./wifom. READ MY SIG.

HE HADN'T POSTED IN THIS THREAD YET. I don't care that he'd posted elsewhere on site. You gave him, what, a few hours since I called for him to claim?

You don't know if he even checked this thread.

And even if you personally think his claim was likely to be fake, you denied others the chance to make their own calls on that.

"Woohoo, I'll get myself some townpoints for hammering scum!"

I predicted that I'd come under heavy fire, if not outright lynched, for not letting scum wiggle out of a pickle with a fakeclaim. I predicted that. Such is this town. Anybody would have predicted that it would earn me SCUMpoints, not TOWNcred.

I DID IT ANYWAY.

Where did you predict it? I don't buy that you thought, "Well, I could wait for him to claim, then call his claim fake and hammer him, but I'll hammer him now even though that'll look scummier to everyone else." You just weren't thinking, or at most, maybe thinking "Oh noes, if someone else hammers him before me I'm screwed tomorrow."

I annoyed DGB-scum by not letting up on trying to get her lynched, some of my earlyish reads were weak rather than strong reads, I weighted conclusions according to likelihood, I used reads of interactions to narrow down scumpairing possibilities, I 'protected' kunkstar7 by... erm... saying we should lynch him and voting for him.

Nice misrep. You only annoyed me this game day after much consideration. I was more annoyed with Ranmaru, and I didn't vote Ranmaru, who survived the night. Most of your reads

were

weak. The kunkstar vote was a hail-mary vote, you couldn't keep your UNCHANGING stance on kunkstar anymore after that. Your scumpairing possibilities didn't narrow things down, they left things UNCHANGED despite your own fake train of thought. And yet you ask how could a townie possibly know he was scum??? You know I'm town, don't you.

lol. You claimed the whole town annoyed you pretty much consistently since you replaced in. I'm part of the town. I called kunkstar7 scum for his hammer during twilight and got straight on him the next day. You didn't vote him despite calling him scum (maybe because you thought you were about to be lynched so you didn't care about trying to look town?) until you saw the chance to quickhammer him. The way you hammered smells of scum knowing their buddy's alignment, not town who's unsure. And my scumpairings mean I can't call smalls scum if you or Crazy flip scum, or vice versa - that narrows things down from my just calling all three of you scum.

I think you're scum. I don't know for sure, but your crappy points against me read like a scum "fling mud, hope some sticks" kind of case.

Your best point against me is of consistency. It's not as ridiculously strong as you make out (as I showed above), but I have been consistent in my reads on you, Crazy since D2-ish, and Ranmaru. But in each case I think that's been fully justified by each player's play. In particular, you haven't given me any good reason to doubt my scumread on you.

[imaginality]

Am I a terrible person if I don't read that?

Yes if part of your reason for voting me is DGB's case on me. Because my responses knock down most of her points.

I'm too exhausted to re-re-re-respond.

And it's mostly the same thing he said in his previous post with different words, more obfuscation, and more obstinacy to stay consistent.

You're scum but at least you're amusing.

If you move your Crazy vote to smalls (who you can vote while saving face for consistency), we can have 5 players with 3 votes. Crazy isn't getting lynched anyway, that vote is a complete waste. Exciting race.

I'd rather smalls gets lynched than Quilford or Empking, and if it comes down to that I'll vote for smalls. But I don't want to give up on a Crazy lynch yet. I think I've made a lot of good points against him (and I'd like to hear Tarhalindur's thoughts about my response to his Crazy=town posts).

[imaginality]

Time A: Thursday July 21 12:49am (NZ)

imaginality: "@kunkstar7: care to claim?"

Time B: Thursday July 21: 7:10am (NZ)

DGB: "Vote: Kunkstar7"

Time elapsed between A and B:

6hrs 21mins

kunkstar7's posts elsewhere on site between Time A and Time B:

4 posts

DGB says:

"Kunkstar was stalling the claim."

Time C:

Wednesday August 3rd 4:13pm (NZ)

DGB: "I will wait for the claim, and there better no be evidence of stalling."
Time D:

Wednesday August 3rd 11:22pm (NZ)

Quilford: "I'm just a VT."

Time elapsed between C and D:

7hrs 9mins

Quilford's posts elsewhere on site between Time C and Time D =

8 posts

DGB says:

"Not gonna hammer this one."

[imaginality]

I ran those figures through my Timeputer(TM) and it gave me the following results:

Chrono-hypocrisy scores

1: DGB
0: Everyone else

[imaginality]

@Amrun: it's not about relative reads. DGB said "there'd better be no evidence of stalling."

He stalled, by her definition. Yet she doesn't mention it.

Even to say, "Well, he stalled a bit but I still feel like he's town from what he said."

DGB says, "For Quilford: "I AM BEING ATTACKED BY SCUM AND NOBODY IS LISTENING " - this is a frustrated townie alright and

it's emphasized by the defeatist "I'm just a VT" feeling of helplessness which I think is a huge town tell.

"

If Quilford can come and say "I'm just a VT" after 7 hours and have DGB consider it 'a huge town tell',

why didn't she wait to see if kunkstar7 also did that?

Answer: because she already knew kunkstar7 was scum and had no doubt about her vote on him.

[imaginality]

@DGB:

* If you had a townread on Quilford, why did you ask him to claim at L-1? If you were going to argue against his lynch anyhow, better to just argue against it and not have him claim. The only reason I can see is you might have wanted to see if he stalled his claim. Except, he did, and you didn't comment on it. So... why ask him to claim?

* R/L excuses are fairly null from my point of view. I've been genuinely R/L as town (e.g. Geezer Mafia) and as scum (e.g. Caught in the Crossfire). I haven't lied about R/L stuff as either - that's kinda sketchy - and I personally think RedCoyote has too much class to fake R/L excuses as scum, too.

* Your numbers post is badly-written. If there are 2 scum left (most likely), then we can mislynch up to twice (including today). If there are 3 scum left (unlikely, but possible if we have some more town PRs unclaimed, maybe?) then we can mislynch only once. It's pretty simple.

[imaginality]

DGB missing the point. It doesn't matter that she was asleep between her two posts. Quilford's an Aussie, so he was awake (and posting 8 other posts) during that time. The point is, DGB saw Quilford had claimed, and despite saying she'd be checking to see if he stalled his claim, she didn't check.

I like the way she refuses to justify why you asked Quilford for a claim in the first place (given you had a town read on him and didn't want him lynched), because she thinks I'm scum. So rude, when I've answered a whole bunch of her questions despite me thinking she's scum

Can someone else ask her? (Or better, just hammer her?)


As for the connections to/from kunkstar7, here are DGB's for comparison:

kunkstar7 on Pom/DGB:

Pom: Not particularly thrilled here, the fact that she took an RVS vote and made it serious with only the word "scummmmmy." is sketch. The fact that she mentions two posts later that she has no one better to vote is sad too.
Vote: Pomegranate.

Early D1 vote for a scumbuddy, always a nice way to distance. Bonus scumpoints for voting her in response to a question rather than actively voting her out of nowhere. Additional point of interest (for those of us who think DGB and Crazy are linked): he voted Crazy in the same post... double distancing?

Vote: Pom; Vote: Crazy. Still need to reflect on interactions between flipped players and these two, but they are still my stronger scumreads.

Ditto - he starts off D2 with a Pom/DGB vote, and is happy to stick on her wagon for a while. But, the first chance he gets, he quickhammers WLC, when DGB was the rival wagon and likely alternative lynch.

DGB on kunkstar7

(Pom said absolutely nothing about kunkstar7)

kunkstar7 > on the defensive [...] Vote: kunkstar7

For Kunkstar, that is all you have for him?

I iso'd him to double check, I didn't like his tone. Didn't seem honest.

[in response to me asking her about her vote]Again, that was another short reminder for me as to why I put him there. I'm not seeing much evidence of scum hunting between the bouts of defensiveness, that's the thing. Normally, defensiveness is NOT a scum tell - it's very often a cornered townie. But when you're very stuck in a low-grade defensive, and don't really scum hunt, that's a different animal.

I'm replacing, I have to look at ALL the players at once, so I'm using some shorthand. IT'S NOT A CASE. It's a note-to-self.

Why didn't she say what she said in iso18 in iso8?

Oh, because she's just retconning additional reasons on the spot. They weren't actually her reasons for voting him at the time.

When I'm dead tomorrow and you weep at the sight of my perfect townie corpse, while kunkstar-scum cackles in the back of the morgue, check the last votecount.

It's possible that the kunkstar rush-hammer was to stave off rising heat in these wagons, maybe BOTH in fact:

4 RedCoyote (Empking, Ellibereth, DrippingGoofball, smallpeoples343)
4 smallpeoples343 (RedCoyote, imaginality, Ranmaru, DrippingGoofball)

DGB admits she's the main beneficiary of kunkstar's quick-hammer, but tries to deflect suspicion to the other wagons.

Do you think Kunkstar was trying to to shift attention off of who he was voting, DGB?

No, I think he's doomed, so he doesn't mind hammering to save a buddy who is in jeopardy. Problem is, I'm next down the line of players who he could be saving, and I know I'm town. If he's doing this, it's for the other lynch contenders getting momentum. He's under attack himself, it's a bit of a kamikaze move from him.

DGB says here kunkstar7 was 'doomed'. So her point against me earlier, saying my vote on him doesn't count because it was forced, applies equally to her hammer of him. More so, since she thought he was doomed and wanted to be on that wagon, whereas I just thought he was scummy, and wanted vote him to make sure he was doomed.

I don't think you need to ISO Kunkstar. You said he needs rope right? Because he does. Crazy too.

He does need rope.

Despite saying this, DGB holds off voting him for more than a day. Why? Very plausibly, IMO, she wanted to hold the hammer vote so that she could end the day quickly, and make her bussing look even more impressive. If she'd voted him earlier in the day, she wouldn't have been able to control how quickly he got lynched.

[imaginality]

Further, you don't stall a claim to come up with WOE IS ME, VANILLA.

Okay. So.

Why did you write kunkstar7 off as stalling, when he could

also

have come up with 'WOE IS ME, VANILLA'???

[imaginality]

I find it interesting that DGB waited until now to swamp the game with content, including suggesting others make a whole bunch of new cases too just days before deadline. As Ranmaru said,

why only now, DGB? Why not before?

Oh, right. Because your neck's on the line and you know more appeals to emotion and fake reactions to being hammered wouldn't be enough to save you this time round, so you're trying to make youself look useful.

[imaginality]

@Crazy: nope. Well, obviously I'd vote him if it came down to that or no-lynch. But not otherwise.

How about smallpeoples343, any chance of you voting him? You had him at 4th on your scumlist, didn't you? I'm willing to shift my second vote to smalls now, considering its now clearer you're not going to get lynched today.

Unvote: Crazy; Vote: smallpeoples343

Would far far prefer someone just hammering DGB though.

[imaginality]

He's already claimed.

[imaginality]

He's had plenty of time to do that and (in my opinion) hasn't succeeded. It's not like I'm basing this on a new case out of nowhere. Everyone (including him) has had a chance to consider and discuss the arguments for/against him.

[imaginality]

Also, nice shifting of the goalposts from "he's not here to claim" to "he's not here to defend himself".

You forgetting he's claimed seems like a scumslip to be honest. You don't need to keep track of what people are doing, you know who the town are.

[imaginality]

Bus your buddy Empking, time is runing out

Talking to yourself, DGB? First sign of madness, that.

[imaginality]

I'm going to be offline for much of the next 24 hours, but I'll definitely be back well before deadline (which is about 33.5 hours from now, if I'm converting the time difference correctly?).

In the meantime, I don't think there's any point in me saying much more about DGB. Everyone should be capable of drawing their own concDGBISSCUMclusions about her (and me) from what's already been said.

About smalls, I'll just say that his flaking is null. We should judge him with regards to his previous scumminess, and his needing replacement shouldn't be used as a reason against lynching him.

[imaginality]

Quick post. More later, but this needs correcting:

Imag accuses DGB of hammering Kunk without a claim... even tho Kunk did the same D1?

Hiraki claimed VT.

When kunkstar7

did

hammer without claim, on WLC, I was one of the people to call him on it even before WLC flipped, and then got him lynched for it the next day. (I've been

trying

to do the same with DGB whose hammer-before-claim was also bad... )

Notice how DGB leapt on your error to use it against me rather than point out you were wrong...

[imaginality]

Back now. Good to see the deadline's suspended. There's a lot of good content being generated at the moment.

Imaginality, show me how you pushed for a kunkstar lynch.

I'm not asking because I'm lazy. I want to see what you will say.

[...]and kunkstar - who I didn't think was scummy 'til now, but unless WLC flips scum (doesn't seem likely) this hammer is definitely really bad.

That was what I said during twilight after he'd quick-hammered.* It's not like I only leapt on his wagon when it was inevitable he'd be lynched.

Vote: kunkstar7

It's hard to think of anything that can excuse quick-hammering a player who was V/LA and hadn't claimed.

I think kunkstar7 should be lynched today ahead of DGB since he's still scummy under either scenario.

Oh hey, Empking's vote has put kunkstar7 at L-1. No quick-hammers please.

@kunkstar7: care to claim?

Those were my only two posts during the one real-time day that D3 lasted (aside from a one-liner when DGB fake-claimed lynched). I think it's pretty clear that I wanted a kunkstar7 lynch. Now, it's true got lynched in less than a day, so his lynch didn't require much pushing - but if people had started backing off from the lynch, for sure I would've pushed harder. Look at how hard I've pushed DGB today - in part that's because of her quickhammer yesterday, which just reeked of already knowing kunkstar7 was scum.

Also in the latter post I pointed out smalls calling kunkstar scum but only voting DGB as further evidence against kunkstar (and evidence against smalls).


*At the time of writing that, I thought the quick-hammer might have been less scummy if it was on scum rather than town, but then when it came to DGB's quickhammer, I realised that it's a scummy action either way - a townie unsure of the player's alignment, however suspicious, should wait for the claim, just in case. (What if kunkstar7 had claimed mason?)

[imaginality]

Oh, I agree with you about my being on the kunkstar-wagon being null - and I haven't tried to claim it's a big point in my favour. What I objected to was DGB describing my D3 play as "softly protective of kunkstar despite his horrid hammer the day before," when it clearly wasn't protective of him. She painted my actions that day as scummy rather than null.

As for not going after him before - yes, I was wrong with my D1-D2 townread on kunkstar7, obviously. Still, I do feel his posts those days were fairly good (until the infamous quickhammer), and when Pom/DGB and smalls in particular were both setting off so many alarm bells, I was more focused on getting obvscum lynched than digging around more widely.


On Empking: he didn't do much if anything D1-D3, but his posts today have actually read pretty well to me. He sounds genuine in the way he's questioned DGB (e.g. iso 85ish), his reasons for suspecting Quilford (e.g. iso90-92), and his frustration at having to claim VT.

I don't want to bring this back to DGB and me, but it's relevant to quote her on Empking:

When I attack him, I get short quips back. That's town?

I thought this line of DGB's about Empking was weak considering she'd never made a case on him at that point - her idea of 'attacking' him was just calling him scum, not challenging him on anything in particular he'd done or posted.

I think Empking's playstyle precludes the commission of any kind of scumtell. The only thing I have on him is the Scumputer.

The entirety of DGB's case on Empking as I see it:
* Scumputer
* Ranmaru thinks Empking's town
* links to kunkstar7

What annoys me about this is that DGB

only brought up Empking's links to kunkstar7 really recently

. Before that, she said "The only think I have on him is the Scumputer." If she was genuinely scumhunting, why didn't she go look at his links with kunkstar and show us them earlier? It makes me think she's been trying to appear more townie because of being vote leader with deadline approaching, rather than genuine in her scumhunting. (Contrast, for example, how I explained why my suspicions of both her, Crazy, and smalls were strengthened by the kunkstar scumflip.)

So, another part of my reason for feeling Empking's town is the same as his reason for thinking I'm town: we both think DGB's insincere in her attacks on the other.

If, hypothetically, DGB, smalls and Crazy are all off the table today, for lynches, I'd rather lynch Quilford over Empking, by a significant amount. I don't get the uber-town feel from his claim post that others seem to.

[imaginality]

DGB hasn't been hammered

because she's scum.

Buuut...

...if DGB

is

town, Amrun is a possibility. Considering how much time Amrun has been spending agreeing with DGB today, I can see her choosing not to hammer her. If someone else hammers, Amrun's off the wagon and looking good. If no-one hammers, the chances are another townie gets lynched anyhow, and DGB has a townread on Amrun.

Looking at her play towards smalls (who, for reasons stated before, I consider the most likely player to be scum if either DGB or Crazy are town), it fits:
* early distancing vote (iso 8) followed by a switch off him onto the Hiraki wagon (iso 26)
* criticising votes on smalls (iso 41, 53)
* iso62 "I think I have a scumread on smalls. But it COULD be derptown."
* votes smalls very uncommittedly in iso72
* whenever she's been voting him both D1 and today, she hasn't really pressed him, just put a vote on him and then unvoted again

And her remark of "Kunk, how could you hammer like that?" in iso53 sounds a little like it could be scum dismayed at their buddy.

I still think DGB+Crazy is by far the most likely pairing. But I'll put smalls + Amrun as my preferred alternative theory now, ahead of smalls + Quilford.

[imaginality]

Sure. I'm a vanilla townie. Have a ball.

[imaginality]

Unvote: Amrun, Vote: Crazy

Crazy with three votes now? Sweet, I'm up for that wagon.

Unvote: smallpeoples343, vote: Crazy

P-edit: Oh, even better. I'm sure we've caught scum here.

[imaginality]

If I die tonight and DGB's flipped scum, Crazy should be first up against the wall tomorrow, no questions. And, on consideration, I think Amrun's probably defended DGB too blatantly today to be scum with her.
If I die tonight and DGB's flipped town, smallpeoples343's replacement is the best bet for scum, with several possibilities for his partner (Crazy or Quilford perhaps the most likely).

[imaginality]

I agree massclaim makes sense here, and will give us a better idea of whether it's lylo already. (Four scum would seem overpowered unless we have some strong PR roles unclaimed.)

I'm a Townie.



I was wrong about DGB - that's still the scummiest I've seen her play, though, and I stand by my reasons for voting her. But as she's town, I think my theory about smalls's jump on her wagon D2 being a sign of him being scum with kunkstar is right. My iso23 has more points, and I agree with Empking about those votes being poor.

So

FoS: Scott Brosius

in lieu of an actual vote.

My second vote's going to go on Crazy or Quilford. Still weighing up which, leaning to Crazy.

I'm fairly sure Tar's town, and I'm leaning town on Empking too. Not interested in lynching either of them. Amrun's a bit trickier, I'm wavering on her. But also don't think she should be today's lynch.

[imaginality]

Tar, smalls(Scott Brosius) already claimed Townie in iso11/iso21.

Popcorn to Crazy.

[imaginality]

Ack, I'm dumb. Sorry.

Don't think it would've worked anyhow though.

[imaginality]

Quilford, what are the three best reasons for considering Empking scum? I'm not really seeing it...

[imaginality]

Just Amrun, Crazy and Scott Brosius still to claim, then. The rest of us have all claimed

vanilla town

.

Scott Brosius should claim next.

[imaginality]

With everyone claiming VT, I don't see any way this is lylo. Not enough town power for 11:4 (after the nightstart) to be balanced.

Vote: Scott Brosius

His post this page isn't bad, but my earlier points about smalls still outweigh it.

@Scott: any reason you left Quilford out of your list of kunkstar's reads?

Vote: Quilford

Dismissing 'the rest of Scott's analysis' as 'laughable' is poor. Seems like he cherry-picked the worst points. Quilford, comment on these please:

kunkstar flip was utterly predictable; I meant to put my vote on him yesterday but instead put it on you (make of that what you will, Amrun )

Say I found him scummy and didn't vote and you come up with this gem? Especially when you had literally made no mention of kunk that day.

so don't think smalls is mafia guys
Empking / DGB are the better lynches for now

This was 1155. My slot's last post was 1135. So all of a sudden I'm scum now even though no content was provided after this read?

At the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the two of them are scumbuddies distancing from each other. Certainly, it doesn't feel town on town.

I isoed Amrun and on balance I'm leaning town on her, but think she's wrong about Tarhalindur.

@Amrun: summarise your case on Tar please. Three best reasons to find him scummy.

@Tarhalindur: one of your reasons for suspecting Crazy is your theory kunkstar was distancing from Crazy and/or DGB. Does kunkstar have a meta of distancing as scum? Or you just feel his play this game suggests that?

Re. Empking on DGB, I agree with Amrun that DGB wasn't deliberately trying to get lynched in this game, going by her post in [redacted]. And if she wanted Invictus to be her last game wouldn't she have replaced out here before she got lynched? This is her last game now.

[imaginality]

I'm not at all happy with Crazy's quick-hammer. There's obvious scum benefit to cutting the day short and hammering a townie. It would be bold for scum to hammer like that considering the other quick-hammerers this game (kunkstar and DGB) both got lynched. I'm going to meta him and see how he plays as scum.

Empking and Crazy could be distancing/bussing scum, I think. I'm wary of how Empking only commented on Crazy so far - for example:

@Empking

, what happened to this theory?

I'm really sure that one of Tar and Quil is scum

[imaginality]

Edit: That should read 'But it would be bold...'

[imaginality]

I didn't garner much from looking for Crazy's scum games, although I did enjoy Crazy's win in this effortless game - superbly effortless. (Replace in during night, win during night, 0 posts in thread.)

Mini 699 suggests Crazy wouldn't be scared to do something bold/risky as scum though. In Crazy's own words (from the 'Your Worst Performance Ever' thread):

I got a really really cool semi-bastardly role, a Mafia Godfather that would flip Vanilla Town when he was lynched. Instead of doing the logical thing and just acting like Vanilla Town, I decided to do an absurd fake-claim. When 3 people claimed miller Day 1, I made a not-so-hidden "breadcrumb" that hinted that I was also a miller, or as I later changed it, a "miller-like" role. I think I changed my mind about exactly what I wanted to claim several times.

My eventual role-claim on Day 3 was that I was a Kleptomaniac that would be forced to steal something from another player each night (which would also roleblock them, I think) and then I would be revealed as whatever that person's role was when I died. That got me lynched, and I flipped Vanilla Town, but everyone knew I was scum anyway. If that wasn't bad enough, I used my role to confirm one of my scumbuddies which inevitably got her lynched the following day.

So I can see him quick-hammering as scum rather than being afraid to draw attention onto him.


@Amrun: Why do you feel Empking doesn't make sense as scum with Crazy?
And Tarhalindur-Crazy too for that matter - Tar defended Crazy pretty strongly on replacing in, and arguably saved him from being lynched that day (Crazy was L-1 at that point).


@Crazy: What do you mean by "Amrun is town barring some weird gambit where she's bussing Empking. If she was scum with Tar or imag, then she would have assisted Empking in lynching me and won" - are you talking about today? (If so, I think it's a bit weak to say she's town just for not auto-leaping on your wagon straightaway. I lean town on her anyhow but not for that reason.)

[imaginality]

Here's something I've noticed about how we stand at the moment.

Amrun wants to vote Empking or Tarhalindur.
Crazy thinks Empking and I are scumbuddies.
I think Crazy-Empking is likeliest.
Tarhalindur also thinks it's Crazy-Empking.

Everyone (except Empking) has Empking among their top two suspects.

This means either Empking is town and two townies are wrong in their suspicions of him, or he's scum and someone is distancing from him.

If Empking's town

, what would that mean? Based on current suspicions:

For me Amrun-Tarhalindur or Crazy-Tarhalindur are the next most likely pairings (I think Crazy-scum makes sense with Empking, or possibly Tarhalindur, but not with Amrun).
Amrun based on 1631 says me - Tarhalindur is the next most likely pairing.
Crazy based on 1638 (where he rules out Amrun - Tarhalindur and Amrun - me) says me - Tarhalindur is next most likely pairing, as well.
Empking suspects Crazy and Tarhalindur.
Tarhalindur's second choice pairing is Amrun-Crazy.

So,

if Empking's town, everyone except Tarhalindur suspects Tarhalindur.

As above, for us to be wrong about Tarhalindur, it would take two townies to be wrong.

So what?

Well, to me this suggests,

it could be good for us to make Empking and Tarhalindur cross-vote

.*

Then, if neither gets quicklynched, we've proven one of them must be scum. That then improves our lynch choice - we can choose from just two players, of whom one is

definitely

scum, and possibly both are.
What are the risks of a quicklynch? Well, we can only get quicklynched if they're

both town

- which can only be the case if two townies are wrong about Empking-scum, and two townies are wrong about Empking-town implying Tarhalindur-scum. To me, that seems like a reasonable level of confidence for a lylo situation.


*Maybe it's a bit early to propose this, since our suspicions can still change, obviously. But anyhow, I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts about this plan.

[imaginality]

@Amrun:

You-Tar as a pairing is purely PoE (from my point of view) if Empking's not scum. I don't think Crazy-you is a possible pairing, so it's either Crazy-Tar or you-Tar. I'd put Crazy-Tar ahead of you, but the reason I consider you-Tar possible is I have a sneaking concern that you didn't really push his slot as hard as you could have (voting and unvoting him D2, and letting me vs DGB hog the attention on D4 rather than pushing hard for a Tar lynch).


In essence the plan i suggested is just proposing this:

*we select a cross-voting pair, and
*the pair we select to cross-vote should be the ones we mutually agree have the best possible chance of

at least one of them being scum

.

For me personally, the two players I find scummiest as individuals are Crazy and Empking, and I think they're the most likely scum-pairing. If I'm thinking just in terms of my own vote, then I'd vote Crazy now.

But, I'd prefer if Tarhalindur and Empking cross-voted first, because

all the pairings I think are possible

have either Tarhalindur or Empking in them. It would just be nice to get that extra bit of confirmation that we

definitely

have scum amongst them (when no quick-lynch occurs), and then the remaining three of us can just vote the scummier of the two of them.

I thought Crazy and you would both agree with me that the scumpairings we each individually think possible all have Tarhalindur or Empking amongst them. (In your case because you called Crazy town, so if Empking's town, it's me-Tar scum; in Crazy's case because he believes you're only scum with Empking, so if Empking's town, it's me-Tar scum; in my case because I don't think you-Crazy is possible, so if Empking's town, it's Crazy-Tar or you-Tar scum).


But yes, if you are suspecting Crazy more now than before, then that opens up more possible pairings (like Crazy-me) from your perspective, so then this proposal loses its logic for you.

[imaginality]

Why not both? (Tar town, Crazy scum)

You and Tar both had townreads on Scott, but were going at each other hard. Crazy-Empking scum might have figured you're more likely to mislynch each other than Scott. I think Tar's theory in 1642 about scum planning to set up a you vs Tar vs (whichever of Crazy and Empking doesn't get lynched) endgame makes sense, and fits with Crazy and Empking bussing each other today.

[imaginality]

Sure, and we might mislynch and lose today. But, going with Tar's theory here, if we lynch right today (and if the scumteam is Crazy-Empking) then assuming they kill me tonight, a you-Tar-Empking/Crazy lylo tomorrow gives them more chance of winning than Scott-Tar-Emking/Crazy does.

Even today, I think I was the only one who might have mis-voted Scott. Scott seemed to pick out Empking and Crazy in his readthrough, and would probably have voted one of them over you or Tar or me. So them NKing you instead of Scott would give up two possible mis-votes (you on Tar and Tar on you) for the sake of one (me on Scott).

[imaginality]

Why are you concerned with getting Empking and Tar to cross-vote instead of just fighting for a specific person to get lynched? I can't really oppose the idea of Empking and Tar cross-voting, since I'm about 95% sure at least one of them has to be scum, but the way you suggested it was so convoluted and awkward that I have to suspect that you're trying to pull something off.

I suggested Empking and Tar specifically because of what people's suspicions were when I proposed it - nothing subjective about that. If people agree with the idea in principle but our suspicions alter over the next few days, then we can re-examine what the pairing should be (e.g. it might be you and Tar, or Empking and me, or whatever). And it doesn't work if people believe any and all pairings are possible.

I'm not fixated on the idea - I mean, I like it and raised it because it would confirm we definitely have scum amongst the pair, and it looked like the logic should make sense to all of us individually based on our own suspicions. I like that consensus element of it - the fact that it only fails if two of us (townies) are wrong about Empking-is-scum AND two of us are wrong about Tar-is-scum-if-Empking-town.

But I feel pretty good we've caught scum in you, anyhow, so if people don't like the plan then, eh. Lynching you is good.

[imaginality]

I tried to take a look at posting rates in this game to compare people's scum posts-per-day with their town ones (doing that helped me firm up my scumread on Feysal in mylo in A Gentleman's Game).

I found Amrun's posting rate this game is lower than her average scum posting rate (which is significantly lower than her town rate - ~3 posts per day vs ~5 posts per day, with under 2 posts per day this game), but given she's had significant personal circumstances come up during this game, I'm hesitant to put any weight on that dip.

And Crazy, Empking and Tarhalindur, lazy sods that they are, don't have their games hyperlinked in their wikis, and I haven't had the time to go and find them yet. (Still want to, though.)


<goes back to waiting for Tarhalindur to return>

[imaginality]

(Correction: under 2.5 posts per day for Amrun in this game.)

My averages: 1.0 as town, 0.9 as scum, 1.6 this game.

[imaginality]

I forced myself to go digging for the other games. Sifting the results, I found a very minor townpoint for Tarhalindur.

<number-crunching begins>

Overall results:

Player - Number of games sampled - Town rate - Scum rate - This game rate (all rates are number of posts per RL day)
Amrun - 8 - 4.51 - 2.98 - 2.49
Crazy - 7 - 1.82 - 1.79 - 1.25
Empking - 9 - 1.72 - 1.71 - 2.73
imaginality - 11 - 1.03 - 0.92 - 1.64
Tarhalindur - 5 - 0.86 - 1.17 - 1.33

Crazy and Empking had little difference between town and scum posting rates, so this doesn't reveal anything about their alignment. I found fewer games to sample for Tar so his averages are less reliable. And Amrun has had outside circumstances. So, yeah... I'm not going to place much weight on this analysis reveals. But let's proceed.

Of the three players (Empking, imaginality, Tarhalindur) not significantly affected by outside issues during this game, we all have posting rates in this game well above average for us. That suggests this game encourages activity in general (contrast my analysis in A Gentleman's Game, where the posting rates were all lower than normal, due to having to write very formally).

We can adjust for this using Empking's figures, since his average posting rate is more-or-less independent of alignment. In this game, he's posted at ~1.59 * his average rate. If Tarhalindur and I discount our rates by that factor, to account for the all-round extra activity levels in this game, then that gives 1.03 for me, and 0.84 for Tarhalindur. Those adjusted posting rates for this game fit much better with our town levels than our scum levels.

To me, that's a small additonal townpoint for Tarhalindur (although because the limited sample size that his averages are based on, we can't have too much confidence in the result). If Tarhalindur was posting at 1.59 * his average scum rate, he'd be posting 1.86 posts per day in this game, not 1.33, and would have made 28 posts rather than 20.

<number-crunching ends>

[imaginality]

@Mod: Can we prod Tarhalindur now?

This game seems to have ground to a halt waiting for him.

[imaginality]

There are two problems with this plan:
- If myself and Empking are both town, this plan loses the game for town.
- It cheats us out of a lynch of all-but-confirmed scum (Crazy) today.

I find it difficult to believe that you'd miss BOTH of these problems, especially considering your stated belief that Crazy is scum (with Empking). I consider it FAR more likely that for you these are features instead of problems - that is to say, that you aren't town and know that you're setting up two townies to vote each other.

- The first isn't a problem for

me

- I explicitly said I don't consider it a possibility that you're both town, and explicitly said for those who do, it's a good reason to oppose the plan. I get that you feel the plan doesn't make sense from your point of view. Fine, we can ditch it, if we want unanimity. Sure, there'd be scum motive for me to propose this, if I were scum with Amrun or Crazy. But there's

also town motive for me to propose this as town

, because

from my point of view

the plan makes sense.

- I feel

fairly

confident Crazy's scum but at this stage in the game self-doubt (I've been wrong about DGB and Quilford) and wifom (some of us are alive because the scum aren't threatened by our reads, which makes me second-guess myself about Crazy) creep in. In contrast, I like the certainty of feeling I

know for sure

there's scum between you and Empking and wanting to confirm that and choose right between two, rather than four.

Again, though, I've said I'm

in favour

of a Crazy lynch if people prefer that to this plan. As I made clear, this was

only an option raised for discussion

, not an "If you disagree with this you're scum!" attempt to force the rest of you into doing what I want.

[imaginality]

Since when did I call you obvscum?

[imaginality]

Oh, wait, you're probably referring to Tar's post. Never mind.

[imaginality]

My thoughts on how people responded to my idea:

Amrun

's reaction seemed very town - wary of my motives for proposing the idea, but taking time to consider it rather than dismiss it out of hand. I feel pretty good about her being town.

@Amrun

(when you return/get the chance to post): You said earlier: "I'm not ready to vote. I need a couple of days to review some things." What were you reviewing? What did you find out?

Also, left over from yesterday: @Amrun: summarise your case on Tar please. In iso 82 you said "Also I think the only thing that can save tar from being scum is possibly quil being scum." I'm keen to hear what you thought's been scummiest about Tar's play up to then (or since).

Crazy

's initial reaction read okay. Perhaps a bit quick to see if he can turn it into a wagon on me, but otherwise within a normal range of suspicion. Less townie than Amrun though since my gut feel of his post is he seemed less interested in genuinely reading my motives, more just taking the opportunity to call me scummy. His second comment on it where he fence-sits on Empking vs Tar (at a point where it looked a reasonable possibility the cross-voting plan might happen) seems quite a bit like it could come from scum though. Hoping that a townie will vote his partner to save him from doing so, but wanting to bus his partner if he has to, so being non-commital at the moment.

Empking

's shrugging agreement to my plan seemed scummy, mainly because it was so unquestioning, especially considering he'd be part of the cross-vote (so from his point of view it would only work if Tar is definitely scum). That unquestioning acceptance seems unlikely to come from town, but likelier to come from scum who've already agreed to cross-bus each other today. That points to Crazy-Empking, just as their first few posts of the day did. Empking-Tar is a slight chance but I see fewer links between the two of them.

@Empking

: you seem pretty sure about Tar being scum - why? Are there particular posts or acts you can point to for why you think he's scum?

Also, why did you drop your belief in the masons' vouching for Tar-town so completely? I think I know why, but want to hear it from you.

Tarhalindur

's sharp reaction made me wary - partly the degree of resistance, considering he said earlier today how sure he was of Empking being Crazy's 'only logical partner', and partly I felt he misrepresented me slightly by not taking into account how the plan looked from my point of view. I was tempted to omgus-call him scum yesterday, but re-reading him today, I think his wariness could be town too.

---

My current thoughts on the possible scumpairings:

Strong chance:
Crazy-Empking

Slight chance (in order from most to least):
Crazy-Tarhalindur
Empking-Tarhalindur
Amrun-Tarhalindur

No chance:
Amrun-Crazy
Amrun-Empking

[imaginality]

First, I just want to note that Empking's posts these last couple of pages are pretty bad. His reaction to my proposal, his "Can I just vote Crazy, now?", his reluctance to consider cases made in lylo.


And with that said, I'm going to vote Empking. This is a carefully-considered vote, not cast in haste. Here's why it now makes sense to me for me to vote Empking:

* Crazy-Empking are looking so likely the remaining scumpair to me. Partly due to individual scumminess, partly due to links to each other and to kunkstar, partly because after re-reading their isos and the game thread, I'm pretty convinced of Amrun-town and Tarhalindur-town. I don't see this changing. (Earlier, I was feeling less sure in my townread on Tar in particular, so at that time the Crazy-Empking pairing looked just probable instead of almost certain.) So, yep, Crazy and Empking are scum.

* But if we lynch Crazy first, I'm worried Empking has a decent chance of escaping tomorrow. The possibilities are:

(A) Empking kills me, leaving Amrun-Tar-Empking: that gives Amrun a tricky choice between Tarhalindur and Empking
(B) Empking kills Amrun, leaving me-Tar-Empking: Empking's going to try to get Tarhalindur to mislynch me or me to mislynch Tarhalindur
(C) Empking kills Tarhalindur, leaving me-Amrun-Empking: this would be hard for Empking to escape from given Amrun and I lean town on each other, so I doubt he'd kill Tarhalindur tonight. So I rule out this option as a possibility.


...Now, if I vote Empking, with high confidence he's scum, what's the risks to us as town? Here's how I see it.

If there's no quicklynch, that proves to everyone that either Empking's scum or I am. Then:

(1) we lynch Empking today and lynching Crazy tomorrow is an easy choice, whether it's Crazy-me-Tarhalindur, Crazy-me-Amrun or Crazy-Tarhalindur-Amrun. I think it's pretty clear-cut Crazy's Empking's scumbuddy, and it's very unlikely Crazy will wriggle free tomorrow, whoever he nightkills.
(2) we could still lynch Crazy today anyhow - but doing so would force Empking into the me-Tar-Empking situation tomorrow (killing me confirms Empking as scum, killing Tar leaves Empking very likely to be lynched). That would give Tar the deciding vote and Empking would have to convince Tarhalindur to mislynch me
(3) we lynch me today. This would lose us the game, but with Amrun saying she's unlikely to vote me, this boils down to the same as (2) - Empking has to convince Tarhalindur to mislynch me

Now, (1) is clearly better than (A) or (B) - I feel there's clearly less chance of a mislynch if Crazy's alive tomorrow than if Empking is.
(2) and (3) are also clearly better than (B) - because in (B), there's the additional chance of me second-guessing myself and mislynching Tarhalindur. In (2) and (3), that's not possible.
So, the question is, what's better between (2)/(3) and A?


I'm backing myself here. I think I've played pretty clearly town in this game, and I think there's less chance of Tarhalindur mislynching me, than of Amrun mislynching Tar.

Vote: Empking

(hopes he hasn't handed the game to scum)

[imaginality]

(hopes he hasn't handed the game to scum)

Bull. Yourt case against me is that I'm essentially too town to be a definite lynch if Crazy is lyncherd first.

Uh, no. That's not my case against you. It's just why I want you lynched first and Crazy second rather than vice versa.


@everyone else:

Notice Empking's reaction to my vote. He doesn't consider the chance I'm mistaken town - I find it significant he's made no attempt to tell me to unvote him before he gets quicklynched. He knows he can't lose the game today, because he's scum.

Counterpoint: maybe he's convinced I'm scum and that's why he didn't try to dissuade me. In that case: if he's convinced I'm scum, why hasn't he cross-voted yet? Again, that seems odd for a townie, sure of my scumminess, to overlook.

Either way, his response doesn't ring true of how a townie would respond to being voted in lylo.



We haven't had Tarhalindur come by yet so I guess a quicklynch is still hypothetically possible, but I'm feeling very good about my vote right now.


In my next post: a detailed summary of why Empking's scum.

[imaginality]

A dozen reasons why Empking's scum:

1. Making an effort to scumhunt D1 then slacking off on D2 is a pattern I've seen time and again from scum. D3's too short to count, but he laid low at the start of D4 too, until he started getting some DGB-pressure on him.
2. He voted immediately in a possible lylo situation yesterday - scum would know it wasn't lylo.
3. As DGB says, he's a believable buddy for kunkstar7, links-wise: from kunkstar7 and to kunkstar7.
4. Ranmaru caught Empking changing his read on Pom just because of the town changing its read on her - scum, swaying with whatever direction town's opinion goes in.
5. An instance of dodging a question from Quilford.
6. Quilford was pretty sure Empking was scum - maybe this was why Crazy (as Empking's buddy) took the first possible opportunity to hammer Quilford?
7. Empking dropping his suspicion of Tar completely (until called out on it) between D5 and D6. Points towards changing his play as a result of scum QT discussion.
8. He's high on DGB's scumputer (for what it's worth)
9. His posts at the start of today, and his reaction to my proposal, and his crossvote with Crazy just now, all fit with the idea that they're buddies who've decided to bus each other today.
10. Not cross-voting me despite, from his point of view, me being confirmed scum if he's town (well, once Tar's checked in to rule out the chance of quickhammers))
11. The fact everyone suspected him at the start of today - it's more likely that he's scum and his buddy is distancing/bussing, than that he's town and two townies are both mistaken in their reads of him.
12. Asking permission to vote Crazy seems more like scum wanting to make sure everyone notices he wants to bus his partner (contrast with his voting straight away in possible lylo on D5)

Imag: Are you really saying that as town I'd have to go "OMG unvote me lol we in LyoL"? Sorry for presuming you had multiple brain cells.

I'm suggesting that either you think there's a chance I'm town and try to get me to unvote before you get lynched, or you think I'm sure-scum and should be voting me. Not caring about being voted makes it seem likely you're scum who already agreed to cross-bus your partner today.


Amrun, I really hope you reconsider your Empking-Tarhalindur scumteam read tomorrow if it's you, Crazy and Tarhalindur still alive. I feel very confident Crazy's Empking's buddy. Tarhalindur is a really long shot.

[imaginality]

You forgot the slacking off when not under pressure, the links with kunkstar, Quilford's suspicions of you, your obv-bussing Crazy at the start of today, the fact everyone suspects you, and way you asked permission to vote Crazy. But to comment on your points:

1. It's not the fact you changed your reads, it's the context of them and lack of justification for them
2. You still ignored Quilford's question even when he re-posted it (making it clear it wasn't rhetorical)
3. If you were that sure it wasn't lylo, why didn't you say so and explain why, instead of just unvoting to avoid Tarhalindur's wrath?
4. Second. (probably first now, given Amrun wasn't on the DGB or Quilford lynches.
5. My point is that your non-act of not voting me, not trying to persuade me to change my mind, doesn't fit with town-Empking thinking I'm town, or with town-Empking thinking I'm scum.


P-edit: True.

[imaginality]

You forgot the slacking off when not under pressure

I thought it was slacking off after D1?

D1 you're under pressure to make a good impression or at least, not attract suspicion. D2-D4 you rode that, until when DGB started going after you in D4. Since then you've been a bit more active just because it's been lylo or thereabouts and you can't get away with doing nothing.

The links with Kunkstar that you pointed out were deliberate lies from DGB in order to get herself lynched. Are you seriously using stuff fabricated by someone as part of your case?

Er, what? She made up the posts she quoted about you on kunkstar and vice versa? No she didn't. All those kunkstar posts she quoted in the post I linked to, he actually said. I just checked.

Quilford's suspicions of you,

This is the worst appeal to authority I've ever seen (its terribleness comes from the fact that the authority was so scummy they just got lynched.)

Fair enough, this is less of a point against you individually and more a point about why you-Crazy as a team makes sense.

your obv-bussing Crazy at the start of today,

If I obv-bussed surely it'd be better to get me lynched first?

Er. I am trying to get you lynched.

the fact everyone suspects you,

So I'm scummy based on being scummy. Yay!

Well, yep - the chances of two townies (and me) all being wrong about you seem lower than the chance we're right and your buddy's bussing you. By itself this wouldn't be enough, sure, but combined with other reasons, it does give me more confidence in my scumread on you, yes.

and way you asked permission to vote Crazy.

That was part of the LyoL thing.

Okay, on reflection, I might have been too quick to see that as scummy rather than null.

Amrun: Everyone thinks you're town (and I know it). I was (I believe) the first to call you town (and I didn't just throw around town reads). This shows that I was (at the very least) townhunting. Do you think I can do that so well as that as scum?

I'm confused by this. Are you saying you're better at finding town-reads as town, than as scum,

when you know who all the townies are

?

[imaginality]

DGB was wrong with the 'no kunkstar vote ever', yes, but she definitely wasn't wrong about you only ever offering a null read on him.
And your vote was just a wagon hop on the day we quicklynched him, null at best, so whether DGB was lying or mistaken about that doesn't change anything.


As for the harder-to-town-read-as-scum, I disagree personally - it's just a case of faking town-hunting like you'd fake scum-hunting, I think you can still spot towntells as scum, just as much as scumtells. But it might be true for you, I guess, depending on playstyle.


P-edit: I think kunk was bussing Crazy and ignoring you. I don't think DGB's argument relies on Crazy being town. You, kunk and Crazy makes sense to me.

[imaginality]

Where are you at with things, Amrun? I'm asking because deadline's about 30 hours away and Tarhalindur seems to be having difficulty connecting to MS at the moment. If you want to hear his thoughts before deciding who to vote, maybe we should ask for a deadline extension?

[imaginality]

I didn't forget. From your perspective, that vote's fair enough - with Crazy voting you and no quicklynch, at least one of the two of you is scum. Which, combined with me voting you, again with no quicklynch occurring, means the only possibilities now are either you're scum (with Crazy or Amrun or Tar as scumbuddy), or Crazy and I are scumbuddies.

So, supposing you're town, you know Crazy and I are scum, and can vote us both. I know you're not town, but you casting a second vote here isn't scummy.


But for me, I now know

you're definitely

scum (if you're town, you'd have been quicklynched). But I don't

know

Crazy's

definitely

scum.

Sure, I think it's very very likely (if I had to bet I'd put it at, I dunno, maybe a 90% chance, with 9% chance of Tar-scum and 1% chance of Amrun-scum). But that still means me casting a vote on him as well as on you is just an unnecessary risk right now on the slim off-chance it's you and Tar (or the even slimmer off-chance it's you and Amrun). If that's the case, then your scumbuddy could hammer him.

So no, I'm not going to throw my second vote on Crazy, and risk a non-zero chance of us losing, when I can keep my single vote on you and know for sure it's on scum.

Added to that is the fact that my reason for voting you rather than him is I think he's more likely to get lynched tomorrow than you. I don't want him lynched today when we can lynch you today.

[imaginality]

Tarhalindur's post makes total sense. Getting himself 100%-cleared as town would be an excellent benefit of a Crazy lynch in this situation.

Either way looks good for us though, because Amrun will also be cleared assuming she votes scum today (and I think Crazy and Empking are both scum, so she'll be cleared either way). If Amrun were scum, she could mislynch whichever of Empking and Crazy is town.

So if Amrun lynches Empking and he's scum, it clears her, and tomorrow is Tarhalindur-me-Crazy, or Amrun-me-Crazy or Amrun-Tar-Crazy with Amrun cleared. Crazy's not escaping any of those, I think.
And if Amrun lynches Crazy and he's scum, it clears both her and Tarhalindur, and one of them will definitely be killed, leaving Amrun-me-Empking with Amrun cleared, or Tar-me-Empking with Tar cleared.

All of those possibilities seem good to me.

[imaginality]

Actually you can rule out Amrun-me-Crazy from the possibilities listed above - that'd 100% confirm Crazy as scum, since if he were town, he'd know I'm town (I haven't hammered him).

Revised version:

If Amrun lynches Empking and he's scum, then tomorrow is going to be Tar-me-Crazy or Amrun-Tar-Crazy, with Crazy and Tarhalindur cross-voting in either case.
If Amrun lynches Crazy and he's scum, then tomorrow is going to be is Amrun-me-Empking or Tar-me-Empking, with me and Empking cross-voting in either case.

[imaginality]

And here are how things stand from a town-read perspective - this is from Amrun's point of view if she's town (and if she's not, we've already lost):

If imaginality's town, Empking's definitely scum.
If Crazy's town, Empking's definitely scum and Tarhalindur's definitely scum.
If Empking's town, imaginality's definitely scum and Crazy's definitely scum.
If Tarhalindur's town, Crazy's definitely scum.

[imaginality]

Woohoo!

Well played Crazy and kunkstar7. It was a pleasure to be scumbuddies with you - I think we worked well together.

Well played town, too - things narrowed up a lot from D5 onwards, and we only just squeaked through in the end. I feel we had to work hard for this win - there were lots of smart players in this town.

Game thoughts

I'm very happy with how I played in this game... up to today, when I nearly blew things with the initial plan I suggested. The ironic thing is it's the kind of idea I would be likely to come up with regardless of alignment, but I totally should've realised how paranoid people would get about it. I think my vote on Empking was much better justified, but after Tarhalindur's smart move of voting Crazy, I was fully expecting to have to try to get Empking mislynched tomorrow. I can see how it was a tricky choice for Amrun to face though, especially with deadline pressure. I certainly wouldn't have enjoyed having to make that choice as town.

I don't think this was an easy game for us as scum. The double voting meant I never felt safe, kept town engaged and discouraged lurking. We were lucky perhaps that four out of the six days were short, although D2 and D5 were tactical choices by kunkstar7 and Crazy to give up their towncred in return for taking the quicklynch opportunity.

Our scum QT is here in case people want to read it. We spent a lot of time considering no-killing so that Crazy could claim doc and we could keep Ranmaru alive, but we decided just to kill him in the end. It's interesting to speculate on how things would've turned out if we'd chosen otherwise.

Set-up thoughts

I totally second Empking here - I also loved this set up (I agree the benchwarmer role is a very elegant role to include in a night-start game) and the double-voting mechanic in particular (so much so, I'm thinking of whether to incorporate double voting into the mini theme I want to run). Is it a new mechanic? If so, I'm going to nominate it for Best Mechanic/Mutation.

As well as increasing engagement and making the days more fluid, I feel like the double voting also gives more weight to people's votes. There's less need for players to compromise on their votes, when there are more wagons around - D4 went the longest and even then, there were stilll several possibilities for who'd end up lynched right up to the end. So, the "I want to vote X but he's not a viable wagon" situation comes into play much less.

And everything gamewise seemed to be handled wonderfully smoothly. Thanks for modding this, petroleumjelly!

One question: was there a graveyard QT?