Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!


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Post Post #2420 (isolation #200) » Sun May 15, 2011 2:09 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Enigma wrote:
Sathoris wrote:Just like PV's vote tables. Data but no analysis. Your conclusion of these wagons is?

Worse than PV's vote tables. Trying to encourage everyone to view these votes under the assumption that Thad himself is town.

Well since no one seems to listen to me there more for me really, but I thought I'd put them out there in case anyone else was interested.

Enigma wrote:And Thad why exactly do these make everyone who isn't dead on the wagon look bad? You can pick out any random vote counts, are any of the alive players on that vote count scum?

I've already explained my theory about the wagons, and am not going to do it again.
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Post Post #2429 (isolation #201) » Mon May 16, 2011 11:09 am

Post by ThAdmiral »

Lowell wrote:If you think votecounts matter, it's not clear why they
only
matter at the end of a day.

On my phone so can't post at length, but the votecounts I used aren't all end of day ones. In fact I believe most aren't.
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Post Post #2436 (isolation #202) » Mon May 16, 2011 7:39 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

I don't think vig should claim.
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Post Post #2438 (isolation #203) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:57 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

I'd rather they claim after the shot tonight.
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Post Post #2439 (isolation #204) » Mon May 16, 2011 10:57 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

For shenanigan minimisation.
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Post Post #2458 (isolation #205) » Tue May 17, 2011 9:36 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Waiting for everyone to check in, name claim and put up their list of scum/town. I guess.
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Post Post #2463 (isolation #206) » Wed May 18, 2011 7:48 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Well that means my reads are now:

town: me, bvoigt, peregrine, fonz

scum: lowell, enigma, sathoris


@ fonz: but then you've got to ask - why would scum claim that?
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Post Post #2464 (isolation #207) » Wed May 18, 2011 7:49 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

also

vote: sathoris
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Post Post #2465 (isolation #208) » Wed May 18, 2011 7:57 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

And because I know you love them so much...

further updated:

Sotty7 wrote:
ThAdmiral - 9 -
Nachomamma8
, EGL,
LynchMePls
,
LlamaFluff
,
GhostWriter
,
Amrun
,
Feysal
,
bvoigt
,
smargaret


Sotty7 wrote:
Bunnylover
- 13 -
LlamaFluff
,
Amrun
,
RedCoyote
,
bvoigt
,
smargaret
, Lowell,
Nachomamma8
,
Stephoscope
, DavidParker,
Furcolow
,
InflatablePie
,
gonnano
, EGL


And because I know you are going to ask me to explain it
AGAIN
egl/enigma looks bad in the first one because it is highly unlikely that a wagon would have got to 9 without a single scum being on it, and lowell looks bad in the second one because it is very unlikely that a wagon would have got to 7 without a single scum being on it.
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Post Post #2497 (isolation #209) » Thu May 19, 2011 9:37 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Lowell wrote:^^^ this makes no sense. Where's the line for "appropriate number of town on a wagon"? Why seven? Looks like you invented a parallel logic to justify bad reasoning and now want to stick with it.

What don't people understand about: "it is very unlikely that a wagon would have got to 7 without a single scum being on it"?

@ fonz: To your first point I guess I just don't believe flavour arguments hold any weight in this game. The fact that he seems to be an impossible character probably means he is telling the truth if anything, seeing how crazy the history is in this game already!

The Fonz wrote:Also, the logic of your votecount argument seems to suggest that Enigma is the most likely scum, but you're voting Sathoris. Can you briefly explain why you think Sathoris is the better lynch today?

While my votecount reasoning suggests enigma and lowell it is possible that they were all-town wagons. Basically I have lost a bit of faith in my theory. As far as sathoris goes it is not that I have better case on him, I just feel enigma and lowell are more likely town than sathoris (engima because of his genuine sounding -1 post yesterday, and lowell for generally town-looking play throughout the game) - so it is more of a poe reason than anything else.

Enigma wrote:No, I'm just wondering if you are stupid or something.

Stopped reading after that.

Enigma wrote:And. Why. Is. Thad. Voting. Sathoris?

Cause. I. Think. He. Is. Scum?

Would you rather me vote you? Because you're next in line.
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Post Post #2499 (isolation #210) » Thu May 19, 2011 10:55 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Two things your ignoring:

1. You're not factoring in regular behavior of scum which would generally be to take some part in any given decent wagon.
2. No one is voting based soley on the votecount analysis.
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Post Post #2500 (isolation #211) » Thu May 19, 2011 10:55 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

3. Page 100! Cool!
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Post Post #2501 (isolation #212) » Thu May 19, 2011 10:56 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

ThAdmiral wrote:3. Page 100! Cool!

Aw, I missed it...

:cry:
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Post Post #2504 (isolation #213) » Thu May 19, 2011 11:58 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Lowell wrote:101 is cool, don't be sad.

Thank you for your kind words of support.
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Post Post #2508 (isolation #214) » Fri May 20, 2011 5:37 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Since clearly enigma isn't going to vote himself - it is up to you peregrine.
I trust you.
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Post Post #2524 (isolation #215) » Sat May 21, 2011 5:15 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Image
^^
This guy really needs to weigh in.
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Post Post #2533 (isolation #216) » Sat May 21, 2011 11:51 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

PeregrineV wrote:
bvoigt wrote:You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.


I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

This more or less confirms peregrine as town in my mind. Surely he would have killed the vig if he was scum.
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Post Post #2545 (isolation #217) » Sun May 22, 2011 11:14 am

Post by ThAdmiral »

Sathoris wrote:
ThAdmiral wrote:
PeregrineV wrote:
bvoigt wrote:You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.


I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

This more or less confirms peregrine as town in my mind. Surely he would have killed the vig if he was scum.


You know it's easy to say you knew who the vig was after he already claimed. Who would be the last soviet scum in your view?

Yeah, but he did mention when he did the analysis initially that he thought he had worked out who the vig is, and he is able to explain fairly logically how he came to this conclusion.

I don't know which scumteams the remaining scum are on to be honest. People could be lying about their nationality. But you are a pretty good bet as the last soviet.
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Post Post #2578 (isolation #218) » Sat May 28, 2011 6:56 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Go town!
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Post Post #2605 (isolation #219) » Mon May 30, 2011 1:21 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Thank you so much for modding sotty!

I don't have any real problems with the game, although town was perhaps a bit weak. Of course it doesn't help when one of the neighbors offers the other one up as a gimme lynch!

Big shout out to fellow town peregrine who really put in a good effort. So many of the other town looked scummy as hell in this game. Also great work Bvoigt - you absolutely kept us in this game. Unfortunately town really didn't deserve to win due to how many times we mislynched.

Excellent game fonz. Unlike pretty much all the rest of the scum you didn't just lurk.

The Fonz wrote:On, and on 2:1:1s: What I stated there is usually the correct course of action, but there's no point in lynching a CONFIRMED townie. You might as well no lynch there as do that. Wait for the unconfirmed townie to get on and lynch him instead.

That's what I was thinking...

The Fonz wrote:Of course, it still wouldn't have mattered here since I was bulletproof.

...but then again, it wouldn't have mattered. You really had this game sewn up!

Amrun wrote:So all the town were chasing their tails and witchhunting me because of Poison Ivy (mostly). Oh joy.

And what did I have to appease them? "I'm McCarthy, town blacklister." Lol.

So true. I know I was initially for your vote but after a change of heart day one I was bang against it. I think if your lynch had been avoided day 2 we would have been in a much better situation.
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Post Post #2606 (isolation #220) » Mon May 30, 2011 1:25 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Btw @ Enigma:

Updated one last time...
Sotty7 wrote:
ThAdmiral - 9 -
Nachomamma8
,
EGL
,
LynchMePls
,
LlamaFluff
,
GhostWriter
,
Amrun
,
Feysal
,
bvoigt
,
smargaret


I was wrong. I'm sorry.

That is a mental town-wagon though!
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Post Post #2607 (isolation #221) » Mon May 30, 2011 1:26 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

Sotty7 wrote:
Bunnylover
- 13 -
LlamaFluff
,
Amrun
,
RedCoyote
,
bvoigt
,
smargaret
,
Lowell
,
Nachomamma8

This one was right though...
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Post Post #2611 (isolation #222) » Mon May 30, 2011 9:47 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

To be fair that does seem destined to end in a mislynch what with the whole being given different role names for each other.
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Post Post #2612 (isolation #223) » Mon May 30, 2011 9:47 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

...and indeed it did end in mislynch.
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Post Post #2629 (isolation #224) » Tue May 31, 2011 10:17 pm

Post by ThAdmiral »

The Fonz wrote:Also, made props to ThAd for coining the term 'Feysalling' which is going to be a firm part of my mafia-playing lexicon from hereonin.

I hope to have it catch on sitewide. :D
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