Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[PeregrineV]

Hello all, just replacing in. Read first 20 pages and last 10, need to finish middle section.

but, The Fonz used to be jmj, so for now,

Vote: The Fonz

[PeregrineV]

@Stephoscope
Either the poisoner was roleblocked last night, their target was protected, or VP Baltar was the posioner or gonanno was the poisoner.
Either the remove from bunker person was roleblocked last night, their target was protected, or VP Baltar was the posioner or gonanno was the remove from bunker person.

Best case is each mafia had kill style, and with 2 dead, we have 2 less kills each night.
Worst case, docs got lucky one night.

[PeregrineV]

Watch for PeregrineV unvoting Fonz soon if his wagon picks up
That would be involving in the Feysal slip, as Feysal has analyzed PeregrineV as being on the other scumteam
It makes me believe I may have been wrong, which is how Fonz easily says what I said was untrue.
I guess I was wrong as to what team he was on.

I am certain on Feysal, definitely leaning scum on the Fonz/JMJ slot
I will vote it if there aren't many other alternatives

If we can't decide, we could always just lynch PeregrineV and bring that scumteam to 1 person
I would rather not, but if we do that, we NEED to get the last scum to prevent the number of kills

Sorry for the need to prod- weekends are mostly for family.
Since I'm addressed here I'll start by addressing it.
Ummm...what wagon?
So I undertsand properly, you think Feysal has me on the "other" scum team, are going with his read, and think he is scum also?
If I'm misunderstanding, please clarify your "argument". You can post as many links as you like, I have no problem reading in a forum-based game.

[PeregrineV]

@Fur- Which you posted while I was posting mine.
What point did I make? I think I asked you a question.
Suit yourself.

[PeregrineV]

Ok, first total re-read completed.
Current suspicions on EGL mostly, but still some on Fonz. I'll go look those over separately.

@Scott- I've played elsewhere, new to this site.

[PeregrineV]

To the Mod: I will be V/LA until Monday.

Unvote.

[PeregrineV]

Hi,

I'm just in the last week of term, a few crazy assignments left but I'll try read through in my own time.

Anyone care to point out the major events and what I should be watching out for .. else it's going to be a skim for most of the (ouch) 70+ pages.

There were a few claims, the latest of which is neighbors.
There is also speculation on 2 scum teams due to the number of night kills.

EGL had some hits against him in my read because of his double hammer of two town players, and his riding on a single day1 case for 3 days.

Others probably have more for you, but I replaced in and read it with knowledge of the list of town players.

[PeregrineV]

Furc, that you were acting like you didn't think there was a second scumgroup doesn't mean the possibility wasn't discussed in your QT. Also, claiming BP might protect you from being vigged, which is an obvious danger for furcscum.

I still don't like the Feysal wagon. If no-one's willing to join me on Furc, or to wagon Peregrine who also lied, I will support a Steph or EGL wagon in opposition.

If you could please point out my lie, I would appreciate it.

What would be your reasons for Steph, other than an opposing wagon?

I'm not sold on Feysal as scum, yet, but EGL was looking bad (but going to give new player a chance to review and respond).

[PeregrineV]

Looks like I've been outed, so I might as well confirm my role explicitly. I am indeed Erich Honecker,

Soviet neighbor

, smargaret's partner. I could add that while our alignments are unconfirmed, our names and nationalities are confirmed to each other. I know for a fact that smargaret is Willy Brandt, West German neighbor, and she knows similarly who I am.

While I'm at it, I can also reveal two clues I left to my role and nationality.

The major one was in post #462, my second one in the game. Take the first letter of each sentence, paragraph by paragraph, and you get AUFERSTANDEN AUS RUINEN, the name and first verse of the East German anthem, which I rather like.

The key here is that I implied Bunnylover would be either Cuban or Soviet, not both. At the time, from my own role, I thought that Soviet townies would not have a nationality other than Soviet.

My role has no mention of me being East German anywhere. It was not until VP Baltar flipped Vietnamese Soviet that I learned otherwise.

So, I am confused by the bolded part.
You did or did not know your nationality as East German? And you claim is not Erich Honecker, East German Soviet neighbor, which would make sense if you were the East German Soviet neighbor.
And how can VP Baltar's flip tell you that you are East German? If it was not in your PM, why woudl you suddnely think it?

I'm a little/lot confused, so any clarification would be appreciated.

[PeregrineV]

@Feysal- I would still like some sort of explanation about this (Post 1938), since it seems fairly major. Would also like to hear your response to smargrets posts about the topic Post 1940.

@The Fonz- I have no idea why David Parker lied. Why do you think he lied?

[PeregrineV]

@Enigma- just curious how far you are into the thread read, and if you can see why EGL's activity raised hackles.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- I have no idea why David Parker lied. Why do you think he lied?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his buddy ThAd.

The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town

. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

So, by the bolded part above, you know ThAd is town?

[PeregrineV]

Wow, in a written game, you'd think that semantics would matter.
Now, did Fonz say this?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his scum-buddy ThAd. The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

Or this?

The most obvious explanation would be to protect his buddy ThAd. The second most obvious is to buddy up to ThAd-town. Both of those are more likely than 'He really thought ThAd was town and it was worth the risk' because the risk there is HUGE for town.

And, to anyone reading, is there a difference?

Perhaps you mean something else. Why do you think David Parker might have lied? Please be as specific as you can.

[PeregrineV]

Not voting - 4 - Feysal, Enigma, Sathoris, PeregrineV

THESE PEOPLE ARE DOING IT WRONG. VOTE PLEASE.

PeregrineV replaced DP, right? I'm fine with that wagon too.

I think Sathoris said it also, but I'd like to hear Feysal respond to my questions, smargarets questions, and any others people might have. I think it makes the most sense to hear what he has to say, then vote how we want.

[PeregrineV]

If Feysal's posting elsewhere but not here, I think that means something. I'd probably take it to mean he doesn't really have a defense, and doesn't want to give away any more information which could hurt his fellow mafiates. If there's not something by Monday, my vote will probably go to him, unless new infromation about another player comes to light.

[PeregrineV]

I think there is some merit in understanding the design (as much as we can), because it basically matters.

Players:
Still Standing:
1 Beasts of the Sea
4 (EGL) Enigma
6 (DavidParker) PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 (jmj3000) (mothrax) The Fonz
24 Sathrois

Six Feet Under:

15. (julienvonwolfe)bunnylover was lynched on Day one. He was was Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote was poisoned on night one. He was John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff was assassinated on night one. He was John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 (Ghostwriter) hohum was removed from the bunker on night one. He was Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 (PoisonIvy) Amrun was lynched on day two. She was Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 (themanhimself) (InflatablePie) Debonair Danny DiPietro was poisoned on night 2. He was Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 (Artem) VP Baltar was assassinated night two. He was Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 was removed from the bunker on night two. He was Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano was lynched on day three. He was Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion was assassinated night three. He was Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 (pappums rat) Feysal was lynched on day four. He was Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius was poisoned on night night four. He was J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls was assassinated on night four. He was Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope was removed from the bunker on night four. He was Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

There are 10 players left. I am making the following assumptions:
No self-aligned roles.
Mafia teams of equal size.

Then it matters whether it is 8v2 or 6v3v1. The first means 22% scum, the second 44% scum.
It also affects how we look at the interactions between dead mafia and live players.

[PeregrineV]

@bvoigt- Why the Sathoris vote?

@ThAd- Where did your list of Sathoris, Smarg , or Enigma come from?

[PeregrineV]

Put all of the vote counts into Excel to try some analysis on it. For the first part, here is the voting patterns of the remaining players. The percentage of the votes is only counted if the vote occured during a vote count, which in general was once per real day. It is only for days 1-4.

Player Voting	Beasts of the Sea
Player	Frequency
Amrun	47%
The Fonz	16%
smargaret	13%
PeregrineV	11%
No votes	8%
Furcolow	3%
Gonnano	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	EGL
Player	Frequency
PeregrineV	37%
ThAdmiral	31%
Amrun	15%
LlamaFluff	10%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	2%
Player Voting	Enigma
Player	Frequency
No votes	100%
*****	***
Player Voting	DavidParker
Player	Frequency
Amrun	19%
Scott Brosius	19%
The Fonz	15%
Furcolow	15%
No votes	13%
Gonnano	8%
bunnylover	4%
Feysal	2%
VP Baltar	2%
LynchMePls	2%
Player Voting	PeregrineV
Player	Frequency
The Fonz	50%
No votes	50%
*****	***
Player Voting	Furcolow
Player	Frequency
Amrun	27%
No votes	15%
Enigma	13%
Gonnano	11%
smargaret	8%
The Fonz	6%
bunnylover	5%
Feysal	5%
VP Baltar	3%
PeregrineV	3%
Beasts of the Sea	2%
No lynch	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	Lowell
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	21%
The Fonz	21%
PeregrineV	15%
No votes	15%
hohum	10%
Amrun	8%
bunnylover	5%
smargaret	5%
Feysal	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	Furcolow
Player	Frequency
Stephoscope	19%
ThAdmiral	13%
Amrun	11%
Furcolow	10%
Feysal	10%
The Fonz	6%
Gonnano	6%
Enigma	6%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	5%
hohum	3%
LynchMePls	3%
*****	***
Player Voting	bvoigt
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	31%
Amrun	26%
Stephoscope	10%
ThAdmiral	8%
Nachomamma8	6%
Feysal	6%
bunnylover	5%
PeregrineV	5%
Furcolow	2%
No vote	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	jmj3000-mothrax
Player	Frequency
No votes	68%
Amrun	26%
Furcolow	6%
Player Voting	The Fonz
Player	Frequency
Furcolow	68%
No votes	32%
*****	***
Player Voting	Sathoris
Player	Frequency
No votes	40%
Furcolow	35%
Amrun	13%
smargaret	6%
LynchMePls	5%

[PeregrineV]

Yes, certain people will not like me providing information to town. Right now it is raw data, as I have paid work I need to do, so it comes as I am available to provide it.
Second part will be the scum vote records, and then I'll go from there.

Yes, one of the Furcolow's is smargaret's voting record. I'll fix in the morning when I get to work, since I have the file saved there.

[PeregrineV]

@pere- I have no idea how to read your charts, or more to the point why they're there. Are they supposed to be interesting only, or are you trying to make a point with them? If so I don't see it.

Right now, it shows how how often each players' vote was on the listed player for days 1-4. It's just raw data now, but I plan on doing the scum vote patterns also, and see what that gives us.

[PeregrineV]

They are separate and also together because the player changed. Same for EGL/Enigma and DavidParker/Me. I can't explain DavidParker's votes anymore than reading what he wrote, and I believe the same holds true for all replacements. Each player (or group for replacements) is divided by *********.

I will do my own analysis, but see no reason not to provide the raw data until then, and allow others to do the same. We are not close to a deadline, so I will post info as it develops.

I don't understand when you say I "left out the least useful information". What would that be? And if it's least useful, why would I want to post it?

[PeregrineV]

@Lowell- I consider it just one tool, which has sometimes proved useful, and sometimes not. Hopefully it will provide something this time. If not, it was my wasted time- others can use other methods while I do this.

[PeregrineV]

Voting frequency table fixed.
Corrections made: Old table had duplicate Furcolow, and was missing ThAdmiral and smargaret. New table contains corrected Furcolow, and ThAdmiral and smargaret added in.

Player Voting	Beasts of the Sea
Player	Frequency
Amrun	47%
The Fonz	16%
smargaret	13%
PeregrineV	11%
No votes	8%
Furcolow	3%
Gonnano	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	EGL
Player	Frequency
PeregrineV	37%
ThAdmiral	31%
Amrun	15%
LlamaFluff	10%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	2%
Player Voting	Enigma
Player	Frequency
No votes	100%
*****	***
Player Voting	DavidParker
Player	Frequency
Amrun	19%
Scott Brosius	19%
The Fonz	15%
Furcolow	15%
No votes	13%
Gonnano	8%
bunnylover	4%
Feysal	2%
VP Baltar	2%
LynchMePls	2%
Player Voting	PeregrineV
Player	Frequency
The Fonz	50%
No votes	50%
*****	***
Player Voting	ThAdmiral
Player	Frequency
smargaret	16%
Amrun	13%
hohum	13%
Feysal	13%
No votes	11%
PeregrineV	8%
Gonnano	6%
The Fonz	5%
LlamaFluff	5%
Enigma	5%
bvoigt	5%
*****	***
Player Voting	Furcolow
Player	Frequency
Amrun	27%
No votes	15%
Enigma	13%
Gonnano	11%
smargaret	8%
The Fonz	6%
bunnylover	5%
Feysal	5%
VP Baltar	3%
PeregrineV	3%
Beasts of the Sea	2%
No lynch	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	Lowell
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	21%
The Fonz	21%
PeregrineV	15%
No votes	15%
hohum	10%
Amrun	8%
bunnylover	5%
smargaret	5%
Feysal	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	smargaret
Player	Frequency
Stephoscope	19%
ThAdmiral	13%
Amrun	11%
Furcolow	10%
Feysal	10%
The Fonz	6%
Gonnano	6%
Enigma	6%
No votes	6%
bunnylover	5%
hohum	3%
LynchMePls	3%
*****	***
Player Voting	bvoigt
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	31%
Amrun	26%
Stephoscope	10%
ThAdmiral	8%
Nachomamma8	6%
Feysal	6%
bunnylover	5%
PeregrineV	5%
Furcolow	2%
No vote	2%
*****	***
Player Voting	jmj3000-mothrax
Player	Frequency
No votes	68%
Amrun	26%
Furcolow	6%
Player Voting	The Fonz
Player	Frequency
Furcolow	68%
No votes	32%
*****	***
Player Voting	Sathoris
Player	Frequency
No votes	40%
Furcolow	35%
Amrun	13%
smargaret	6%
LynchMePls	5%

[PeregrineV]

Well poisoned was the Soviet scum telltale wasn't it. Intentional, I'm not so sure. Scott didn't appear that scum or townie. I think the last soviet scum took a shot in the dark and happen to hit a US mafia.

While typing this. Why are some people thinking it could be 8v2? We already have one vig odd night vig down so one even night vig left. One kill from the vig (removed from bunker) one kill from the soviet (Poisoned) and one from the US team (Assassinated)

VOTE: PeregrineV

How do you think we might be in a 8v2 situation unless you know something else?

When I first read thorugh this I saw discussion on the possible kill flavors for each group. I don't remember what the final decision was. Can you tell me what post it was in, or what page or range of pages I might be able to find it?

And frankly, I have no idea what we are still facing. You seem pretty sure it's not 8v2. Can you please elaborate?

[PeregrineV]

And off-topic, but,

Happy Easter

eveybpdy!!

[PeregrineV]

OK, so finally finished the second half of the data I wanted to make available- the voting records for the mafia.

(If you see the word "table" appear three times under here- I'm not sure what causes it. Chalk it up to html error.)

Player Voting	VP Baltar
Player	Frequency
Gonnano	20%
No votes	20%
Amrun	17%
smargaret	17%
The Fonz	15%
DDD	12%

Player Voting	Gonanno
Player	Frequency
Amrun	29%
No votes	21%
The Fonz	17%
Lowell	12%
smargaret	12%
Enigma	8%
bunnylover	2%

Player Voting	Stephoscope
Player	Frequency
bvoigt	29%
Furcolow	21%
Amrun	18%
No votes	11%
Feysal	8%
bunnylover	6%
Gonnano	5%
smargaret	2%

Player Voting	Scott Brosius
Player	Frequency
Furcolow	31%
Enigma	18%
The Fonz	11%
PeregrineV	11%
Feysal	8%
Amrun	8%
Gonnano	5%
no votes	5%
ThAdmiral	3%

[PeregrineV]

@PeregrineV: RedCoyote was "poisoned," and someone was "assassinated" on Night 3, when we presumably had no vig shot. So the vig flavor must be "removed from the bunker." Then you can figure out the remaining flavors from crosskills. "Poisoned" is Soviet, and "assassinated" is American.

Also, would we benefit from a mass name claim?

Actually, instead of a mass name claim, how about just nationality claims?

So, Soviet mafia killed RedCoyote, Debonair Danny DiPietro (InflatablePie), nobody, and

Scott Brosius

.

American mafia killed LlamaFluff,

VP Baltar

, XScorpion, and LynchMePls.

Town vig RedCoyote killed hohum (Ghostwriter) night 1.

Town vig unknown killed nachomama8 night2 and

Stephoscope

night4.

So, why did the Soviet mafia not kill night 3?

[PeregrineV]

@smargaret- I'm sorry you feel that way. I will try to be more like you.

[PeregrineV]

Ok, so I posted some of the raw voting data percentages. Did anyone get anything useful from them?

With that, for me, they didn't quite do what I wanted them to. However, the Excel document I have has helped me note some anomalies in the votes.

1. From this, I believe I know the even-night vig, so I can confirm them town in my mind.

2. Votes received this game through day 4.
Furcolow----------132
ThAdmiral--------- 118
The Fonz ----------97
PeregrineV---------83
smargaret---------51
Enigma------------30
bvoigt-------------21
Lowell--------------9
Beasts of the Sea---1
Sathoris------------1

Gonnano-----------93
Stephoscope-------18
Scott Brosius-------10*
VP Baltar-----------3

And the Scott Brosius number is inflated. DavdParker voted him before leaving, and when I replaced in I didn’t unvote until I finished the thread. His actual number is around 2.

My point on this is how did Scott and VP Baltar (Artem) act “so town” so as to receive just a few votes out of 62 vote counts from 20+ players? This is exactly the flying under the radar that the scum team wants. Gonnano failed, but the rest seemed to be doing fine.

So, for now, I will
VOTE: Beasts of the Sea.

[PeregrineV]

It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.

Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.

I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.

Yeah I would guess more likely 8-4-2, small chance of 3 man teams with some random third parties running around but given no flips and seemingly no SK 8-4-2 makes the most sense.

And this post of Scott's where he seemingly validates 4 man scum teams make me think there is only 3 on each, making it 8-2.

[PeregrineV]

So, for now, I will
VOTE: Beasts of the Sea.

This is new. Voting someone just because they have received the least number of votes throughout the game? Perhaps it is just being useful? Maybe you should try it sometime. And just to humor you a bit and since you did all that vote counting, why did you pick me over Sathoris who has also only received one vote?

Well, this:
"My point on this is how did Scott and VP Baltar (Artem) act “so town” so as to receive just a few votes out of 62 vote counts from 20+ players? This is exactly the flying under the radar that the scum team wants."

Vp Baltar- 3
Scott Brosius-2
You-1
Sathoris-1

And you because Sathoris is already attracting attention today. He's had 1 or 2 votes on him all day.

[PeregrineV]

@Smargaret- So, do you think you are the best lynch of the day? Are you mafia? If not, who do you think is?

@ThAd- I like the vote analysis, but I still get the feeling smarget is scummy without being actual scum. And starting the about the third vote block, there actually is scum already on most of the wagons.

@Beasts- So you feel that the fact that absolutely nothing you've said, done, or posted that has caused one person to vote for you all day not the least bit suspicious (your one vote was Furcolow's first)? Even though it puts your total game vote count in line with 3 of the dead scum?

[PeregrineV]

Peregrine - No, I don't think I'm the best lynch of the day, because I know my alignment (town) and I know we should lynch US scum today. I think we're better off lynching scum, and I think scum is likely in {you, EGL, bvoigt}. Also, you're line "scummy without being actual scum" sounds a lot like you know I'm town and you're trying to distance yourself from a mislynch.

Enigma - it's more than one wagon.

ThAd - what you said.

Au contraire mon cher. I have no problem lynching you today. However, I

REALLY

would rather lynch a mafia aligned player. Since you claim not to be, I would think you would also agree.
But, the extent of your reponse is to list three likely scum. Perhaps a case why, with examples? ThAd did one, I have mine, so nothing stops you from proving your points.
Until then, you'll understand why I disagree with you.

[PeregrineV]

Because Bvoigt is scum.

And if the entire case on me rests on how my predecessor voted ... surely you jest right? Maybe we should lynch you.

Enigma- Could you provide a case against bvoigt as to why you feel that way?

[PeregrineV]

@ peregrine: I'm gonna jump in here because I think your line of argument is bad. Firstly people can't choose how much they are voted. If they could scum would choose never to be voted. Secondly not all scum play alike. At all.

My point is that it seems Beasts is "too town to be town", so to speak. He's got one page of posts. Read his posts as if he were American scum, then go back and read it if he were town. Take notes both ways. Then decide if you want to vote for him.

Not all scum play the same, but town takes more chances, because when they flip, they'll flip town. Scum takes less chances, 'cause when they flip, it hurts their team more.

[PeregrineV]

My point is that it seems Beasts is "too town to be town", so to speak. He's got one page of posts.

Read his posts as if he were American scum, then go back and read it if he were town.

Take notes both ways. Then decide if you want to vote for him.

Not all scum play the same, but town takes more chances, because when they flip, they'll flip town. Scum takes less chances, 'cause when they flip, it hurts their team more.

First off, "too town to be town" has never been a scumtell.

Secondly, the bolded above looks

strongly

like a scum slip, because, why wouldn't they read it from a

Soviet

scum standpoint as well? Perhaps because you are Soviet and you know that isn't possible? Yep. Caughtscum.

Vote: PeregrineV

As for me, people can read my posts any way they want; it should be perfectly plain where my allegiance lies. My posting speaks for itself. And if you think my "one page of posts" is something to scoff at, then, well, ok. If anyone else wants to ISO me, they are free to read through my posts and pick them apart piece by piece if they so wish.

Well, Mr American scum, because I do not believe there are any Soviet scum left. Am I wrong?

So, to follow your logic,
1. I say read Beasts in iso as town and as scum, take notes, and see what you see.
2. You say that's a scumslip that I call you American scum.
3. You tell people they are free to read your posts and pick them apart piece by piece if they so wish.
4. You vote me.

So, is that an OMGUS vote, are you angry you've been caught after being so free, or did you just say what I said after voting for me?

Maybe it's the pressure of my single vote?

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- If you feel my argument is so bad, please explain to the best of your ability the high degree of similarity between Beasts number of votes and those of VP Baltar and Scott Brosius? Even Stephoscope was only voted on 3 occasions- the players just held thier votes over multiple days.

See, if you explain to me why Beasts is the same (under the radar, very low vote count) as the other mafia on paper, but oh so different just because, then I will switch my vote to someone else.

Otherwise, you can vote for Beasts also.

[PeregrineV]

I think we can agree to disagree. That's why we each have a vote, to use as we need to.
So, if you may, please give your non-craplogic case on smargaret, so we can all lynch her and move onto the next lynch.

[PeregrineV]

Post above was to The Fonz.

But also disagree with bvoigt lynch.

[PeregrineV]

Going to respond out of order.
@Whoever missed it- DavidParker claimed Soviet Townie here, complete with name: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2818193
Soviet scum team questions it here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2818261
American scum team brings it up here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2818602

@The Fonz- decent analyis. Also like how #3 admits that Beasts may be scum. I concur with that name on the list. Also, I'm Soviet.

@Enigma- Can you post the complete living player list with nationality claim, since you seem to have a consolidated one?

[PeregrineV]

I am French.

Well, Mr American scum, because I do not believe there are any Soviet scum left. Am I wrong?

Yes, for a couple reasons. I have to once again say that balance wise two goons and a rolecop (three total) on a team in a game of 24 doesn't really seem like a balanced faction. In addition, gonnano claimed watcher results so unless he made up two nights of watcher results (highly unlikely) the Soviets have a watcher.

Excellent-
So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.
Please label each living player as to thier scum or town affiliation.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- If you feel my argument is so bad, please explain to the best of your ability the high degree of similarity between Beasts number of votes and those of VP Baltar and Scott Brosius? Even Stephoscope was only voted on 3 occasions- the players just held thier votes over multiple days.

See, if you explain to me why Beasts is the same (under the radar, very low vote count) as the other mafia on paper, but oh so different just because, then I will switch my vote to someone else.

Otherwise, you can vote for Beasts also.

No. That's craplogic. That some scum were able to avoid getting votes doesn't mean that all the people who didn't get a lot of votes were scum. It's like saying 'We lynched two lurking town, so the rest of the lurkers must be town also.' Only one person voted for LMP all game, no-one ever voted for Nachomamma. Hardly anyone's voted for Lowell, either.

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that when I replaced in, the town lynch record was 1 scum, 2 town (now 3). Scum and vig kills have had better luck (or skill) at killing scum than whatever "traditional" scumhunting techniques were previously employed over the last month.

So, I'm presenting a case based on what I see is a pattern match to behavoir combined with reading the posts. Explain to me why it's craplogic when it it has yet to be proven wrong (or right).

[PeregrineV]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

If you wouldn't mind, your town/scum reads since you believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

If there are only 2 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 6 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??

[PeregrineV]

If there are 4 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 2 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum Soviet (alive): ??

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??, ??

[PeregrineV]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

So, based on my prior posts and your prior posts, we should be hanging both ThAd and Enigma, and Beasts. Scott was US, ThAd & Enigma are US, and Beasts is the US version of the Vietnamese mafia. smargaret would be the West German town neighbor ot he East german Town Feysal.
Then, after those three are dead, we can kill the last of me/Lowell/Furcolow/Bvoight. You know, as the last soviet scum.

Ummm...not buying it.

But if you still do, vote Beasts and get him off of the list now.

P-edit: Posting this anyway, but will respond to your response next.

[PeregrineV]

Also, Fonz are you thinking there is still one more Soviet scum left?

It would surprise me if it were not the case. 18-3-3 with the Soviet scum not having any kind of RBing or protective roles, given the existence of odd and even night vigs (harder to take out than a single full vig) doesn't seem balanced.

If you wouldn't mind, your town/scum reads since you believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

Well, I explained in quite a bit of detail precisely where I think the mafia are hiding. But since you asked, for the sake of clarity:

1 Beasts of the Sea - neutral to leaning scum - much more likely to be American if scum, mostly based on nationality claim rather than actual play
4 Enigma - Probably scum, definitely American if scum
6 PeregrineV - Scummy and could belong to either faction
8 ThAdmiral - Townish - can't entirely rule out American scum, but would require multiple scummier people to be town, not Soviet Scum
10 Furcolow - Possibly soviet scum, don't see as American, believe he has claimed his actual rolename either way
11 Lowell - town
13 smargaret - Scum, American
18 bvoigt - town
22 The Fonz - Confirmed town to myself
24 Sathoris - neutral to leaning town

You have too many town:
Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 2 VT

If neighbor is wrong (according to The Fonz), then we are instead looking at 3 vanilla. If you are one, and not the vig, there are 2 vanilla+1 vig+TheFonz.

So,the remaining town is Sathoris, The Fonz, bvoight and Lowell?

[PeregrineV]

EBWOP: Actually forgot two more. Your neutrals would be town, making it ThAdmiral and Beasts?

[PeregrineV]

For ThAd and Enigma to both be scum, you're requiring the following:

1)An American mafioso with a different nationality to have claimed American

or

2) The Americans to have only one 'foreign' team member as opposed to two (with one Soviet mafioso still outstanding, but I'd expect that role to be actually Soviet- seems a bit weird to have a Soviet mafia with only one Soviet in it) for the Soviets.

I don't think that's particularly likely. I'm not even going to think about lynching ThAdmiral unless and until Enigma comes up town.

Actually, #1 is your scenario. 4 man scum teams are either 3 main + satellite or 2 main +2 satellite.
If it is 2+2, then you or Sathoris are the remaining soviet scum (becuase soviets already have 2 dead soviets+1 vietnam).
If it it 3+1, then ThAd and Enigma must both hang (for being American, then we hang Beasts or smarg, as the +1)

As a matter of fact, I do think an American is hiding under a Soviet nationality. I could be wrong, but I'm going to look at the US+satellite and Soviet+satellite breakdown next.

I am also on the 18-3-3 belief. It makes more sense.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz
If you have a minute, please review playerlist of living/dead in OP, and then we'll re-open your 2+2 or 3+1 discussion, if you wish.

[PeregrineV]

For ThAd and Enigma to both be scum, you're requiring the following:

1)An American mafioso with a different nationality to have claimed American

or

2) The Americans to have only one 'foreign' team member as opposed to two (with one Soviet mafioso still outstanding, but I'd expect that role to be actually Soviet- seems a bit weird to have a Soviet mafia with only one Soviet in it) for the Soviets.

I don't think that's particularly likely. I'm not even going to think about lynching ThAdmiral unless and until Enigma comes up town.

Actually, #1 is your scenario. 4 man scum teams are either 3 main + satellite or 2 main +2 satellite.

WHAT? How is number one my scenario? You're just not making sense here. How can you claim they are 'either 3 main + satellite or 2 main + 2 satellite' when

we've already seen two Soviet satellite flips?

If it is 2+2, then you or Sathoris are the remaining soviet scum (becuase soviets already have 2 dead soviets+1 vietnam).

No. We've seen soviet mafia, hungarian soviet mafia, and vietnamese soviet mafia. Two satellite and one soviet.

If it it 3+1, then ThAd and Enigma must both hang (for being American, then we hang Beasts or smarg, as the +1)

Except that if it's 3 +1, it's perfectly possible that one of the American mafiosi claimed to be something else, and one of the claimed Americans is truthful. That said, I think it's more likely 2+2.

As a matter of fact, I do think an American is hiding under a Soviet nationality. I could be wrong, but I'm going to look at the US+satellite and Soviet+satellite breakdown next.

That's actually a brilliant point. There are 14 claimed Communist world roles including the dead, both town and scum flips. There are only ten claimed Free world.

I am also on the 18-3-3 belief. It makes more sense.

It really doesn't.

There is only 2 soviet + 1 satellite flip. If you can re-respond to the post that caused this reponse after reviewing the OP, I would appreciate it.

[PeregrineV]

Actually, Peregrine's brilliant point about US vs Satellites has massive implications, I think. Including that, if the numbers are balanced, we know exactly where the Americans are hiding. It would mean that one of me and Sathoris would have to be scum (hint: him) and that there was precisely one American hiding in the claimed Soviets.

The one thing that gives me pause about this is, although my role is

from

an Eastern bloc country, he's very much not pro-Soviet. And Yugoslavia, although Communist, wasn't behind the Iron Curtain. Hmmm.

1 Beasts of the Sea - neutral to leaning scum - much more likely to be American if scum, mostly based on nationality claim rather than actual play
4 Enigma - Probably scum, definitely American if scum
6 PeregrineV - Scummy and could belong to either faction
8 ThAdmiral - Townish - can't entirely rule out American scum, but would require multiple scummier people to be town, not Soviet Scum
10 Furcolow - Possibly soviet scum, don't see as American, believe he has claimed his actual rolename either way
11 Lowell - town
13 smargaret - Scum, American
18 bvoigt - town
22 The Fonz - Confirmed town to myself
24 Sathoris - neutral to leaning town

Just want to point out that it is somewhat contradictory to have Sathoris be the scum and not be. And in your scenario (assuming 3+1), one of you is.

Or, maybe there is only 3 on each mafia team?

[PeregrineV]

There is only 2 soviet + 1 satellite flip. If you can re-respond to the post that caused this reponse after reviewing the OP, I would appreciate it.

No. YOU re-view the OP, because it is clear there are two satellite and one soviet flip.

Please copy and paste this link into the thread, and I will be happy to discuss it with you.
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 0#p2742520

Just want to point out that it is somewhat contradictory to have Sathoris be the scum and not be. And in your scenario (assuming 3+1), one of you is.

Yes, they contradict each other. You know why? BECAUSE I CHANGED MY MIND BECAUSE YOU BROUGHT UP A POINT I HADN'T THOUGHT OF. When new evidence arises, I reconsider my positions. What do you do?

OK, that's what I'm trying to do- present evidence based on available data.

[PeregrineV]

Cold War Mafia

A deeply flawed historical mafia event.

Location

: A undisclosed location

Time

: An unspecific point during the cold war

Somewhere and somewhen somebody decided to end this game of thermonuclear chicken. Twenty four figures of varying importance who may or may not have even lived at the same time are somehow brought together to find a peaceful solution to a diplomatic conflict that threatens to possibly begin to consume countless lives. Not everyone wants peace though. Amongst your number are individuals who would rather see this cold war turn hot. Maybe they stand to profit from open conflict, maybe they think it's the only way for their way of life to continue or maybe they're just bored. If these talks are ever going to succeed you must band together and expunge yourselves of these agitators. Expunge them with bullets, ropes, lead pipes, or candlesticks if that's all you have handy. First war, then peace. Then punch and pie.

Players:

Still Standing:

1 Beasts of the Sea
4

(EGL)

Enigma
6

(DavidParker)

PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22

(jmj3000) (mothrax)

The Fonz
24 Sathrois

Six Feet Under:

15.

(julienvonwolfe)

bunnylover

was lynched on Day one. He was was

Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker

.
3

RedCoyote

was poisoned on night one. He was

John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.

20

LlamaFluff

was assassinated on night one. He was

John F Kennedy, US Townie

23

(Ghostwriter)

hohum

was removed from the bunker on night one. He was

Harold Wilson, British Townie

16

(PoisonIvy)

Amrun

was lynched on day two. She was

Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister

2

(themanhimself) (InflatablePie)

Debonair Danny DiPietro

was poisoned on night 2. He was

Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9

(Artem)

VP Baltar

was assassinated night two. He was

Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21

nachomma8

was removed from the bunker on night two. He was

Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17

gonnano

was lynched on day three. He was

Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12

XScorpion

was assassinated night three. He was

Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie

5

(pappums rat)

Feysal

was lynched on day four. He was

Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14

Scott Brosius

was poisoned on night night four. He was

J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7

LynchMePls

was assassinated on night four. He was

Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19

Stephoscope

was removed from the bunker on night four. He was

Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Back up mod:

Andrius

For posterity and discussion.

[PeregrineV]

@TheFonz- Yes, he was. But, for game purposes, there are 2 soviet and 1 satellite dead.

[PeregrineV]

Sorry about that. My argument is really based on posted information, not history.

9 (Artem) VP Baltar was assassinated night two. He was Ho Chi Minh -

Vietnamese Soviet

Mafia Goon
17 gonnano was lynched on day three. He was Janos Kadar -

Soviet

Mafia Goon
19 Stephoscope was removed from the bunker on night four. He was Andrei Gromyko -

Soviet

Mafia Rolecop

So all of my posts are referring to 2 Soviet and 1 satellite (Vietnamese). If you ignore that premise, that it doesn't really matter what I say, does it?

[PeregrineV]

What the scum's actual rolenames are are irrelevant. If you were named, say, Margaret Thatcher, American Mafia Goon, are you going to claim to be American or British? Janos Kadar was from a satellite state, which is what matters. Both claimed Americans have claimed actual US citizens.

gonnano did claim Hungarian. http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2908572

I'm pointing out that for our anlaysis of nationality, he is not listed by the mod as Hungarian, he is listed only as Soviet.

[PeregrineV]

OK. So you are saying Beasts and smargaret could also count as Americans, and not just satellite.

So, three of Beasts, ThAd, Enigma, and smargaret need to be lynched?

[PeregrineV]

If there are only 2 left:

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon

21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie

17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon

12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher

19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Town (dead): RB, Odd-vig, blacklister, neighbor, watcher, 5 VT

Town (alive): even-vig, neighbor, 6 VT

Scum Soviet (dead): Rolecop, Goon, Goon

Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): ??, ??

So, going with 2 left, this doesn't make sense. That would give the US two non-vanilla roles.
Scum American (dead): Jailkeeper

Scum American (alive): Neighbor, Goon

For symmetry, I'm going with

East German Town Neighbor Feysal and West German Town Neighbor smargaret

. So, yeah, despite the glob of posts about her scumminess, I'm putting her in the town column.

[PeregrineV]

@ThAd- Do you believe in the 2 scum left or 4 scum left theory?

[PeregrineV]

Ok with four left, and given all we know about nationalities and such, can you give your scumreads?

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

I want to believe in the 2 scum left theory. But 4 scum left is probably more likely. Unless the two remaining US scum have quite a bit of power.

Actually, I'm thinking last 2 American scum are goons.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- A few reasons.
1. One of top being that the scum teams, for power balance, have to be equal. That means if 4 Soviet, then 4 American scum. I don't think there are 4 American scum (3 left). The nationality claim kind of cinched it for me.

2. 6 mafia in the game is 25% mafia. 8 mafia is 33% mafia. That is the acceptable range, so I refer back to my first reason.

3. The flavor symmetry- 2 primary + 1 secondary on each scum team.

4. Vote patterns. 4 man scum teams could have 3 on the primary wagon and one off-wagon, and almost make up the majority. However, if you look over the patterns, it never happened, on either side.
IE, I have 3 votes now, it takes six to lynch. Assuming no american mafia on me, they could all now pile on and end the day (obviously each would give a "reason", but the net result is that with 4 remaining scum and 6 to lynch, 2 misvotes would screw town over. And it would only get worse each day.)

[PeregrineV]

Ok with four left, and given all we know about nationalities and such, can you give your scumreads?

8 ThAdmiral - town
10 Furcolow - town
11 Lowell - town

22 The Fonz - prob-town
6 PeregrineV - prob-town

1 Beasts of the Sea - unsure
18 bvoigt - unsure
24 Sathrois - unsure

13 smargaret - scum
4 Enigma - scum

But wouldn't that make them overpowered relative to the three flipped soviets?

I actually was thinking there could be 4 soviets and 3 US scum, but the 3 US scum have more power. So that would mean 3 scum left.
It is true that if there is only 2 US scum left they are probably both goons.

Goning to pop nationality into your list:

8 ThAdmiral-US - town
10 Furcolow-Sov - town
11 Lowell-Sov- town

22 The Fonz-Other Sov - prob-town
6 PeregrineV-Sov - prob-town

1 Beasts of the Sea-Other US- unsure
18 bvoigt-Sov - unsure
24 Sathrois-Other Sov - unsure

13 smargaret-Other US - scum
4 Enigma- US - scum

Based on 3+1 scum teams, Enigma, smargaret, and Beasts are the remainder of the US team? And bvoigt would be the remaining Soviet?

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- Theose were my reasons, not arguments.
I think there are three American mafia total, not 3 left.
I think scum (Scott) did lie about there being 4. That and my own calculations means it's 3 each.
I pointed out #2 was a null tell, but I checked that, so I mentioned that.
Your version requires 2 American affiliated goons, since the PR is already down. Is your 4th a goon or PR?

We are not in lylo becuase it is 8 town-2 scum.
In your version we are not in lylo, because to soviet scum is would be 1 scum - 9 town, and US scum see 3 scum-7 town. It is not lylo for anyone.

"Scum tend not to go out of the way to be ridiculously blatant."
My case on Beasts involves that same arguement, yet I'm wrong?

[PeregrineV]

Yeah, it is in the mafia team's best interest to have us keep chasing ghosts and lynching town. Knowing what we are truly up against benefits us.

[PeregrineV]

@smargaret- I know you are looking to distance yourself from all players in case they flip scum or town, but we would still like you opinion on the game. Are we looking for 2 mafia? Four? More? Less?
May we have your reads on the following players:
1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

There are 6 communist claims and 4 capitalist claims, I believe. 4 communists and 6 capitalists would make it even. So if you do want to outguess the mod, we have 3 scum out of the communist claims and 1 out of the capitalists.

Re setup:

Nearly

(Note not every) all 12p games have 3 scum teams. 2*3 scum teams is balanced for a 24p setup. I bid you all good luck in outguessing the mod. And as a result now, the optimal play for one Soviet scum left is to not Night Kill just to add to your confusion.

That's true, but when you consider crosskills, 2 scumteams of 4 each make more sense. I was in a 16-player game that had 2 scumteams of 3. However, I don't really see the point of arguing about it. Peregrine, why are you so concerned about the number of scum remaining?

Because of this:
Yeah, it is in the mafia team's best interest to have us keep chasing ghosts and lynching town. Knowing what we are truly up against benefits us.

If you knew for a fact there were 4 mafia left and 6 town, your entire scumhunting strategy is different than if you are only looking for 2 that are on the same team.

For example, this is Scott's post:

It's looking like 8 vs 4 vs 2.

Why so pessimistic? 8-4-2 could be possible, but I think 10-3-1 is at least equally possible.

I think a 3-man scumteam would have a tough time in a 24-player game. With a Day 1 lynch, crosskill, and good vig shot, they could be eliminated by Day 2 in a worst-case scenario.

Yeah I would guess more likely 8-4-2, small chance of 3 man teams with some random third parties running around but given no flips and seemingly no SK 8-4-2 makes the most sense.

Now, at this point, we have 2 dead soviet scum, and are speculating on the total mafia team size. Would you just out and out tell the size of your team, "hey guys, only one left!"? Or would you strongly hint at the correct number? Or would you grudgingly admit the correct number, but speculate highly that the incorrect number is correct?

I'll elbaorate more in another post where I give smaraget my player reads.

[PeregrineV]

... earlier on this page I was town, now I'm scum.

I'll give those reads after you do the same.

I still have you in a town spot. But, I could be wrong. And your still scummy (if it's this word which is confusing, then I can use "making posts and doing things that make me think you are a mafiate

and/or

that make me want to lynch you for them."

Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town

Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure

Furcolow-sov, Lowell-sov- Maybe of the last US scum that lied about nationality. If not, then one of two above.

Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum

If there are really four left-then 4 of the bottom five. But, logic tells me 2.

[PeregrineV]

@TheFonz- I happen to believe she is town. To me, the setup helps confirm this (once again, to me). And I think the setup is one tool the town has. Apparently most people think the lynch is the only tool, and so post one or two lines with lynch so-and-so.
Like here, and here and here and here

And

here, here,and here.

My point is that it's kind of common and accepted in the beginning of a game. But with 10 players left, 5 days of voting, 4 flipped scum, understanding the flavor somewhat, and trying to guess how the setup affects the endgame, we have a ton more tools to use.

But, it seems like the more I use them instead of one-liners, the more votes I get.

[PeregrineV]

@ Eveyone else who hasn't yet:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining us scum, 3 us +1 sov scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

[PeregrineV]

EBQOP:
@Everyone else who hasn't yet:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining US scum, 3 US +1 Soviet scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

@bvoigt- based on nationality claims Enigma and ThAd are both claiming US. Wouldn't that mean they are both US scum, at least? and the off-country you have smargaret?

I still haven't done the nationality analysis, but 12-12 makes sense, for flavor balance.

[PeregrineV]

ii) Precisely one of the living American Mafia claimed American, the other two claimed other nationalities.

I wouldn't be surprised if the American scum claimed soviets since the heat is obviously on the Americans now and less on the Soviets.

So, Mr Beasts of the Sea. You believe there to be 3 American scum and 1 Soviet scum left.

I think you are the remaining Soviet scum and I think Enigma is USA scum, with The Fonz being USA by association. To be honest, my scum read on The Fonz has gone down today since he is now doing some actual scumhunting instead of standing by his policy lynches only. I'll revisit this when Enigma flips.

4 Enigma - USA Scum
6 PeregrineV - Soviet Scum
8 ThAdmiral - Leaning Town
10 Furcolow - Town
11 Lowell - Town
13 smargaret - Leaning Town
18 bvoigt - Leaning Town
22 The Fonz - USA Scum, pending Enigma's flip
24 Sathrois - USA Scum, POE

Peregrine, is there any particular reason you're so set on there being no Soviets left?

Yes, because he's the remaining Soviet. It couldn't be anymore obvious.

The question is, do we want to kill off the remaining Soviet team (PV) and eliminate a night kill, or kill a USA scum (Enigma) and hope for cross kills? I'm leaning towards eliminating a night kill for sure, because hoping for cross kills is not as sure of a bet as killing off a scum team for certain.

The question is more like, do we lynch Beasts today, and if he is town, I'll shut up and be the lynch tomorrow. Wouldn't that be groovy?
No more me and my craaaaaaazzzzzzzzyyyyyyyyy ideas.

[PeregrineV]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

11 US and 13 Soviet. One of the Soviets is lying.

[PeregrineV]

Since I also did a quick re-read of Furcolow, I'm now putting him in my town category. And Soviet at that.

But not bulletproof.

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- Beasts has to say that in order for his "3 american scum team + Peregrine" to make any sense. He knows your not scum.

[PeregrineV]

Revamp:
Since I think there are two:
ThAd-us, TheFonz-othsov, bvoigt-sov, PeregrineV-sov, smargaret-othus- town, Furcolow-sov

Sathoris-othsov, Enigma-us- I think town but can't be 100% sure

Lowell-sov- Last US scum that lied about nationality.

Beasts of the Sea-othus- US scum
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

@smargaret- Can we have your remaining scum thoguthts and player list please now?

@Lowell- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

@Sathoris- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

@Enigma- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

[PeregrineV]

@Peregrine: Wasn't Che Guevara Communist?

Actually, now that you mention it, in the stricest sense he should be, esp given his Cuban nationality in the game is also communists. The only reason my brain placed him in the "West" is because Cuba is geographically near the US, in the West, and as opposed to the "Eastern Bloc". It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but that's why I had him on the "US" side.

But yeah, I now need to go back and loook everything over based on this.

[PeregrineV]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.

3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

If bvoigt is right, then are Albania and Poland considered Soviet? Then it's 10 and 14. Or, more people are lying, or I've got someone on the wrong side.

Unfortunately, too much of this really does devolve into outguessing the mod, and that's something I won't try and do.

So, for now, I'll stick to my 2 US scum theory and address the posts since this one, although I will admit I'm now less sure.

[PeregrineV]

I am, in fact, a doctor

targets?

And apparently, since I overlooked your name:

@Furcolow:
Please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining US scum, 3 US +1 Soviet scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

@Sathoris- Can you provide your thoughts on the final breakdown of scum remaining and list where you believe each player to be?

1

Beasts of the Sea

- We know there are european nationalities in this game, I doubt the british are the sole representative. I believe he's french, but that doesn't absolve him from being USA scum. If a vietnamese was in the Soviet scum team than a british or french guy can certainly be so aswell.

US Scum

4

Enigma

- We've got six confirmed dead US townies. With a probably 4 extra as scum that leaves 1 US townie left and as I think that belongs to ThAd I'm gonna say

US Scum

6

PeregrineV

- Posted his voting tables but the promises analysis hasn't been delivered. Claimed soviet, which is suspicious in it's own.

Soviet scum

8

ThAdmiral

- Appeared town in my eyes since his first claim.

US townie

10

Furcolow

- Lying all throughout the whole game. Now he's claiming doctor again. I don't buy it. I'm with the Fonz on this one. Lynch the liars.

Soviet scum

11

Lowell

- Soviet claim again isn't telling us a lot but since there is only one contender for a soviet scum and he's been playing town in my eyes he's lowest on that list, so

Soviet townie

13

smargaret

- Depending on the nationality of the last Soviet scum this could be an interesting lynch. If the last soviet scum flipped a nationality different than soviet. (i.e. Vietnamese or Chinese) Then we can assume the US scum have two US players and two of different nationalities aswell. Smarg and BotS then stand out. But the whole neighbour thing makes me uncertain whether she would be US scum.

West German Townie

18

bvoigt

- I don't think he's soviet and I don't think he's Soviet scum either.

US Scum

22

The Fonz

- He's on the right track

Polish townie

I have two Soviet scum even though there only is one spot left. (If any, but I think so) My heart tells me it's furcolow because he's been lying all the time and my brain says PeregrineV.

@Sathoris- Here, almost all your reads are setup based. It's supposed to be one tool. Can you supply any supporting evidence (links would be best, but even summaries of why helps)

in addition

to the setup answer.
Furcolow is the only one you mentioned because of his playstyle.

[PeregrineV]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

11 US and 13 Soviet. One of the Soviets is lying.

Some of notes.
1)

enigma

didn't seem particularly scummy-- until his last "give up" post. When someone is about to die and all of a sudden has tons of 'obvreads' to share, that's a sign they were holding back. Which to me smells like scum. I'll lynch him if we need, but not right now.
2) I'm still not sold on the 12v12 mechanic. It would be nice if it is, but surely the mod considered massclaims would happen at some point so we shouldn't throw away reads b/c we think we have the setup figured out.
3) Among the american side, the scummiest are enigma and

ThAd

. I fear I have been blinded by flattery. All his "voting bloc" posts don't serve much purpose other than to solidify a group of friends. Also enigma, in his 'whoa is me' post, named ThAd as scum, seemingly out of nowhere. This looks like it could be last-minute distancing, and both could be US-aligned scum.
4) Among the soviet side,

pere

stands out the most. He's been heavy-handed (overly so) with his 12v12 theory, as well as the importance of determining the exact number of scum left. If there's a US hiding among the soviets, I think pere is the most likely and that he's trying shape the debate on his terms. Look back at how quickly the nationality debate has dominated discussion. Clearly some people have things to gain by focusing on this.

@Lowell- The mod is well covered- claims would not reveal anything. Look at the town names and mafia names- you can't tell what they would be by their name or thier real-life role. We're looking at setup and symmetry for clues.
Also,

[as well as the importance of determining the exact number of scum left.

Can you tell me why this is unimportant? It's almost the most important thing in the game. They all have to be dead for town to win.

[1] Each player represents one real-life figure from the 20th Century. Not all of them are dead, but not all of them are living.
[2] Each player has an alignment, a nationality, and a role.
[3] The town win condition is: "You win when all threats to peace have been killed"
[4] A possible mafia win condition is: "You win when only Soviet players remain alive or nothing can prevent this"

Also, please give your read on the remaining players below. Also, your opinions on 2 remaining US scum, 3 US +1 Soviet scum, or other scum totals is also appreciated.

1 Beasts of the Sea
4 Enigma
6 PeregrineV
8 ThAdmiral
10 Furcolow
11 Lowell
13 smargaret
18 bvoigt
22 The Fonz
24 Sathrois

[PeregrineV]

Enigma and The Fonz are partners. You heard it here first.

As The Fonz said, fuck it. If we want to leave a NK in play then so be it. But lynching Enigma is almost as good because it will confirm The Fonz as scum tomorrow.

Unvote
Vote: Enigma

Ok, what I'm seeing here is you "think" Fonz is scum, but your going to go ahead and agree with him?
And you also think he's lying about nationality? Along with Sathoris?

[PeregrineV]

I actually would like to take a closer look at ThAd. The only reason he's remained clear in my mind is DP's "role related information" which was a lie, wasn't it? :-/ I need to actually reread him and make sure that townread is warranted. Is that kind of stunt something DP would pull for a scumbuddy?

I'm also suspicious of Fonz. He's completely abandoned his "You must be scum because Feysal flipped town" and his "LAL => Lynch Furc" and those are starting to look like scum going for the easy mislynch dropped for lack of interest.

Other scum - Peregrine for reasons explained previously and one of EGL/Bvoigt. Others are town.

I'm having computer trouble and will be limited in my ability to post until it's resolved. I will post at least once per day.

For those of us nuts that read things better in a list:
smargaret reads:

1 Beasts of the Sea- US Town

4 Enigma- Possible US Scum

6 PeregrineV - Soviet scum

8 ThAdmiral - Possible US scum

10 Furcolow - Soviet Town
11 Lowell - Soviet Town

13 smargaret - US Town

18 bvoigt - Possible Soviet Scum

22 The Fonz - Possible Soviet Scum

24 Sathoris - Soviet Town

Is this correct, based on your quoted post? If so, I have some questions.

Are you of the 4 man scum team school of thought, or 3 man? Are they even (3-3, 4-4), or is one team have more or less members than the other?
If three man, please explain your reads for me/bvoigt/theFonz.
If four man, please explain who is the 4th US scum, and who is lying about thier nationality claim.

[PeregrineV]

Got the rest of tonight and all day tomorrow. Is there no better lynch than smargaret?

[PeregrineV]

I've said what I have to say. I don't know who's lying about their nationality; honestly, it's clear someone is and it doesn't really matter who. If you need to lynch me, then you need to lynch me - I'm basically vanilla at this point and Feysal's flip does make me look bad. I'm most confident in my reads on Peregrine, EGL, and Fonz.

Lowell, I'm a she, and I'm the one arguing against the setup shit. Remember?

Crap argument that may have been fine in the first day of 24 players, but is not now. Now we need people to look, think, read, re-read, guess, unguess, etc.
You could be costing us the game with your unhelpfulness.

If it is 6 vs 3 vs 1, and they don't cross kill, it becomes 4 vs 3 vs 1.
You could help, but no, you either can't be bothered or your on their side.

The Fonz is right, who is lying does matter.

EGL has been out of the game for weeks now, Enigma replaced him.

So only to avoid the no-lynch (because if you're not going to help today, why should you help tomorrow) and even though I think smargaret is town,

Unvote.
Vote: smargaret

Even though Beasts is US mafia, and I

REALLY

wish we would lynch him today.

[PeregrineV]

@Sathoris- we are kind of looking for 1 or no soviet scum and 2 or 3 us scum.
But, good try.

[PeregrineV]

@Sathoris- we are kind of looking for 1 or no soviet scum and 2 or 3 us scum.
But, good try.

That's what my list gives you. I don't see your problem with me basing some of my reads on the availability of scum roles.

Then you probably meant US here?

You asked to give us reads with the remaining slots for mafia. By power of deduction I can't name 3 people Soviet Scum.

@Furcolow- So you think Lyndon B. Johnson was decided to be US mafia by the mod?
No other reason in the whole entire game at all whatsoever to vote Enigma? Just cause he's LBJ?

[PeregrineV]

Son-of-a-bitch. I was wrong about the setup, but was right about beasts. So we now have 2 us scum and 1 soviet left.

But our town vig gets a shot tonight!

Please discuss and discuss some more before placing any careless votes.

[PeregrineV]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop
Furcolow

smargaret- west german neighbor
Beasts - US French Mafia Goon

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

Just can't let this go. 2 US scum and 1 Soviet scum.

@Enigma- You are US, and between ThAd and yourself, I'm leaning towards you being US scum.

@Lowell- I think you are lying about being Soviet, and are the other U.S. scum

@Sathoris- I think you are the last Soviet scum.

@The Fonz, ThAd, bvoigt- I have you guys as town.

Does this sound right to anyone? Wrong for any reason? I can and will go into more details, but want to hear from people first.

[PeregrineV]

@Whoever missed it- DavidParker claimed Soviet Townie here, complete with name: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p2818193

Not sure who wanted this again, but for the third time this game, the claim.

[PeregrineV]

PeregrineV
Town: Me, ThAd, bvoigt, TheFonz
US Scum: Enigma, Lowell
Soviet scum: Sathoris

ThAd
Town: ThAd, Peregrine, TheFonz
Scum or Town: Lowell or Enigma
Scum:bvoigt, Sathoris

Sathoris
Town:Sathoris, ThAd, TheFonz
US scum: Enigma, Lowell or bvoigt
Soviet scum: Peregrine

Bvoigt
Town:bvoigt, Enigma, ThAd
Town or scum: Peregrine or TheFonz
scum: Sathoris, Lowell

TheFonz
Town: TheFonz, ThAd
Town or scum: bvoigt or Lowell
US Scum: Enigma or Sathoris

@TheFonz- not sure I got yuor eads right-let me know so I can adjust.

@Enigma- can we have your town/scum list?

@Lowell- can we have your town/scum list?

I think Lowell and TheFonz are the last to claim, unless I'm missing someone.

[PeregrineV]

Should the vig claim, so that would give us a confirmed town?

[PeregrineV]

But, we also need him to win, so if we think there is a mafia RB, let's not have him claim.I know this gets into WIFOM territory, but we need to correct lynch today, correct vig tonight, and correct lynch the last tomorrow.

[PeregrineV]

Yeah.. PV that's no fullclaim, just a name.

And there's no problem with the vig claiming. We're probably not going to lynch the vig and tonight is probably the last time he can use his shot. We've already had a mafia RB, I doubt the soviets have one too.

Besides if one doesn't fullclaim we'll know he's hiding something and if he's the vig he might be mislynched. Plus it gives the mafia a nice chance to avoid fullclaiming. So I say again.

Full claim please PV and pass the popcorn.

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

@Lowell- Passing the popcorn to you. Fullclaim please.

[PeregrineV]

Also this:

@Enigma- can we have your town/scum list?

@Lowell- can we have your town/scum list?

Also, Enigma, seeing as how you are American with ThAd, and ThAd is pegged as town mutliple times, it leaves you as one of the last US scum. Can you please explain how you are not?

[PeregrineV]

@The Fonz- You have to remember, he is pretty much the last of the US scum in my reads. He could basically prove that he is not be overcoming my current town reads on the four people listed, only one of which is "American".
I will bring up the basis for my town reads at a later date, after all the claiming is done (you mentioned something similiar, so I look forward to yours also)

PeregrineV Reads

Town: Me, ThAd, bvoigt, TheFonz
US Scum: Enigma, Lowell
Soviet scum: Sathoris

Also, are these your reads? I was unsure reading the one post:

TheFonz Reads

Town: TheFonz, ThAd
Town or scum: bvoigt or Lowell
US Scum: Enigma or Sathoris

[PeregrineV]

Me: The Fonz
Can't see how he's scum: ThAd
Think he's very unlikely to be scum, but if Lowell were somehow town, has to be: Bvoigt
Likely Scum, very likely American: Lowell
Likely Scum, very likely Soviet: PeregrineV
One of the following is scum, the other is very likely town: Enigma, Sathoris (

there's an outside chance Enigma is American

and Sathoris is actually Soviet, although that implies some funky setup/claim combo).

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p3014880

Is there some reason you believe Enigma lied about his claim?

[PeregrineV]

You said that there is an outside chance what Enigma is an American, but in the claims post, you have him listed as such.

It seems like you don't belive Enigma's claim.

Did I read it wrong?

[PeregrineV]

V/LA until Saturday May21 (r/l issues)

I think we can hold lyncvhing for a few more days. Also not caught up as this in an emergency.

[PeregrineV]

Sorry guys, real life emergency stuff, resolved happily!

[PeregrineV]

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

@Lowell- Passing the popcorn to you. Fullclaim please.

So, your role is basically a VT? Also, is that exactly what your role PM says for a name?

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

[PeregrineV]

Ah, gotcha. (Do I take it when you said 'You are American with ThAdmiral' you were not in fact calling them scum buddies?) There's an outside chance of the situation being that Enigma is US Scum AS WELL AS Sathoris is Soviet (scum). The much more likely scenario is that one or other is American scum, and the other is town. When I say 'American' and 'Soviet' I'm talking about the mafia groups.

@TheFonz, ok that makes more sense then.

[PeregrineV]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

[PeregrineV]

Enigma and PV are guarenteed scum, I can't see a scenario where they're not.

@Sathoris- Can you tell us why you are not the remaining Soviet scum player?

Stuff like this. How am I going to prove I'm not a Soviet scum? I could tell you I had no interaction with any of them. But you could read that as distancing. I could say I did have interaction with them and it would be bussing. Same can be said with any votes on them.

Besides if I get suspected of being mafia it's of being US scum. You're trying to find a scapegoat for the soviet scum spot. You've got better luck fixating on Engima, cause if you're not it, he is.

VOTE: PV

Well, I kind of think you are because of the Soviets claiming are me, bvoigt, Lowell (lying), TheFonz, and you. And I know I'm town and bvoigt are town, and I think Lowell is US scum, leaving TheFonz and you. That's where I went into behaviors, and have to go with town Fonz for now. Your best bet to convince me would be a great case on TheFonz, which you did not provide.

Not sure why we would think you are US scum. Unless you lied about your nationality. And are you saying I'm not soviet scum, then Enigma is? That he lied about his nationality?

[PeregrineV]

Scum List: Lowell, Sathoris, Thad.

VOTE: Sathoris

You notice that Lowell is voting you, but you haven't mentioned it or defended against it or anything. Just curious, why is that?

And why is your vote for Sathoris?

Why do you find ThAd to be scum?

[PeregrineV]

So Lowell is a neutral read who is promoted to scum because others are town? Does the same go for ThAd?

[PeregrineV]

You know what? I might as well just claim. Yuri Gagarin, Soviet Even-Night Vigilante. I killed Nacho and Steph. This shows that the game has at least some flavor symmetry, FWIW...one vig is an American astronaut, the other is a Soviet astronaut.

I saw this in the voting patterns, when I was looking the living players votes. The person you most voted for was the vig target the following night. I almost came out and said it, but then remembered the whole odd/even day thing.

This more or less confirms peregrine as town in my mind. Surely he would have killed the vig if he was scum.

You know it's easy to say you knew who the vig was after he already claimed. Who would be the last soviet scum in your view?

Well, as per 2529, the last soviets are Lowell, Peregrine, bvoigt, Sathoris (albania), and TheFonz (poland).

I know me and bvoigt, leaving Lowell, Sathoris & TheFonz.

However, we also have 2 american scum left, as only two have been lynched so far.

The only American claims are Enigma & ThAd.

Since ThAd is town, that leaves Enigma as one of the last two American scum.

Which means, one of the "Soviets" is lying.

I pick Lowell to be lying, leaving Sathoris and Fonz.

TheFonz's play has seemed to be town, so that leaves Sathoris as the last Soviet.

[PeregrineV]

@Sathoris: That's not what I'd call "several scumtells," but oh well. I think I've made my point.

@Peregrine: So does it say "I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game" in your role PM? (I don't mean those exact words, just the general ability.)

@bvoigt- Sorry, I'm just VT, but when I have Sathoris trying to confirm it prior to your claim, I didn't want to clarify the whole vanilla thing. But since you did claim, then it doesn't matter as much.

Anyone can write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

Actually, the details of my role have already been explored in the thread, surpisingly enough.

[PeregrineV]

@TheFonz- Can you help me understand better why you are voting Engima, and then spend a page arguing math with him after trying to convince him to vote Sathoris? It's a little confusing.

[PeregrineV]

At this point I'm pretty sure pere and enigma are the american scum.

Pere's claim makes no sense (as I mentioned earlier and then fonz explained), and given that he was planing on doing the green/blue soviet/american role analysis, he seems most likely to reverse his claim nationality to benefit from swithing nationalities. I read back to when the role comparisons started, and orginally pere had 11 americans and 13 soviet, meaning one american switched his claim. Then someone brought up that guevera could be soviet, and pere IMMEDIATELY changed his mind, and made it 10/14. That he was only too happy to do so makes me think he was protecting his partner (who he knew claimed "american" while he claimed "soviet") when given cover to do so with his role analysis. That he so naturally originally put che w/ the americans, giving a 11/13 split, makes me think it's what he

knew

the split should be, since he was assuming the mod balanced things at 12/12.

Well, funny thing abou this is I never claimed anything really. When I took over, David Parker had already claimed everything. Hence, the reaosn for my links back to where my name and nationality were already posted.

I'm not really getting what your saying here- I really do assume the mod made it 12/12, but Che is part of the West only geographically, so at that point I don't really know if it's exactly 12/12, but it doesn't matter at this point.

For now, what matters is we know there is a Soviet mafia left, and 90% likely 2 american mafia left. Since I feel like I've pretty much identified the remaining town, that leaves you, Sathoris and Enigma. If one, two, or three of you are lying about your nationality, not sure it makes much difference, although Fonz posted something about it which I'm about to read.

[PeregrineV]

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Since ThAd is town, that leaves Enigma as one of the last two American scum.

Which means, one of the "Soviets" is lying.

I pick Lowell to be lying, leaving Sathoris and Fonz.

TheFonz's play has seemed to be town, so that leaves Sathoris as the last Soviet.

Peregrine, this is important. One American mafioso must have claimed

Soviet

. Not Soviet satellite. There is a two-claim disparity between American claims and Soviet claims, the obvious explanation for which is precisely one American American claiming to be Soviet town. In the situation where you are town, Sathoris is Soviet and Lowell is American. For Lowell to be town, it would require me to have read you wrong, and you be American, while Sathoris is Soviet. I really don't think I'm that likely to be wrong, though.

If you beleive the American to be claiming Soviet, then we should be lynching Lowell. Sathoris is claiming satellite, and bvoigt and I are regular Soviet.

@TheFonz- Can you help me understand better why you are voting Engima, and then spend a page arguing math with him after trying to convince him to vote Sathoris? It's a little confusing.

Yup. Arguing the math was simply a case of him trying to assert that it was not that unlikely a wagon of eight had no scum on it, and my counterargument was to try to demonstrate to the rest of the town that it really, really was.

I want him to vote Sathoris for the reasons that I outlined before all the math came up: I don't believe that anyone other than Sath or Enigma would be a reasonable vote today. I think you're Soviet, and therefore don't want to lynch you today, because lynching the Soviet mafia might actually be worse than lynching town. As I said, town will be in an unwinnable position unless either this lynch or Bvoigt's vigging hits American, and I'm basically certain that one of Enigma and Sathoris is American. I personally prefer Enigma, because I trust VCA and actual play more than I do setup guessing in this instance.

OK you lost me. Sathoris is claiming Albanian, Enigma is claiming American. Lowell is faking Soviet, or all three could be faking. Why is lynching the last soviet bad? Why is lynching an American better?

______________________________________________________________
@Bvoigt: I think what you're getting at is this, no?

Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie, Writer

- I have the ability to post as much as I want to in this thread. I can also write long and complex PMs to the mod regarding the game.

@bvoigt, I am a Vanilla Townie, but my guy was some writer. It says Mikhail Bulgakov, Soviet Townie.

He appeared to claim that 'writer' was part of his actual rolename, but then went back on it. Couple this with the being dead during the cold war issue, this really, really looks like a fakeclaim to me.

Not a fakeclaim, and yes, until bvoigt claimed I want confusion among the mafia. If they think I'm a PR, then they don't hit the real vig. But since bvoigt claimed, it doesn't really matter.

Before anyone hammers, I want everyone to answer this: you do know what to do in a 2:1:1 endgame, right? Because it's possible we might face that tomorrow.

No, what are we supposed to do?

If we lynch the last soviet, and bvoigt hits american mafia tonight, then we should be at 4vs1. If we lynch american, it goes to (2:1:1) worst case and town win best case.

[PeregrineV]

EBWOP- NM, we only have 7 left. Need to recalculate.

[PeregrineV]

Yes, that one claim would be Lowell. The reverse would be if all three are lying, then Sathoris and Lowell are American and Enigma is Soviet. That seems rather unlikely, so going with simplest- Lowell is lying American (or Lowell is last Soviet, and Sathoris is lying American).

[PeregrineV]

Current 4:2:1
Lynch american, vig american- 2:1:1 worst, town win best.
Lynch american, vig soviet- 2:2 worst, town win best
Lynch american , mis-vig- 1:1:1 worst, town win best
Lynch soviet, vig american- 3:1
Lynch soviet, mis-vig- 2:2 (US mafia win?)

I think this is right. Lynching American and we are counting on mafia crossfire for town to win outright. Lynch Soviet and bvoigt needs to be sure.

[PeregrineV]

OK, here's my issue (yes, because I'm retarded town and don't want to lose, so spend a lot of time second guessing myself):

Enigma

- 3 -

Lowell

,

Sathoris,

The Fonz

Sathoris

- 3 - ThAdmiral, bvoigt,

Enigma

So, we have it evened up at 3 to 3. Both are claiming not to be mafia, but in order for that to be true, one of my town reads is just plain wrong.

In the end, bvoigt is my final town read, as his voting=vigging, and he finally claimed.

ThAd gets my town read from here: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 1#p2798941
Basically, his claim wording is very close to mine. Can that be part of a fakeclaim? Could be.
But I will use ThAd's post as part of my vote case:

The flips make me even more certain of my suspicions regarding the bunny wagon. The wagon up to 7 now looks like this:

Bunnylover

- 13 -

LlamaFluff

,

Amrun

,

RedCoyote

, bvoigt, smargaret, Lowell,

Nachomamma8

If there isn't scum in that group I will eat my hat. Nay, I will eat everybody's hats.

vote: smargaret

Seeing as how there is only one more unknown on that list,

Vote:Lowell

My town read for The Fonz comes from posts that seem passionate, but now I'm second guessing all of that too.

Anyways, my point is that it's weird the votecount stalemated the way it did, and that causes me to second guess myself and my final reads.
Except for one.
So I'm voting to lynch Lowell, and hope that bvoigt hits another tonight.

[PeregrineV]

Peregrine, coming in that late when two players are at L-1 and not even having the guts to pick between them is the worst kind of posturing.

There is still three days left, and Lowell has been on my mind since this: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p3003203

[PeregrineV]

UNVOTE: Sathoris
VOTE: Enigma

Since Peregrine won't.

Thanks, since I know your's is legit.

@enigma- if town, please share last thoughts on final vote and discussion leading up to, including final scum.

[PeregrineV]

For once, night came quick to the bunker. After bvoigt's sacrifice

PeregrineV

went to bed with a heavy heart. Was he really the only remaining good guy? The thought sent shivers though his body. After double checking his door was locked, PeregrineV finally laid down to get some rest. He slept fitfully as nightmare figures chased him though his dreams. In the middle of the night he awoke with a start, there was a noise somewhere.... He heard it, he was sure he did. Sat up in bed he strains to listen though the darkness when.... BANG!

That sounded like it came from the room right next to him. Turning on his light he slips out of bed and walks to the door. His head is telling him to run and hide, but his instincts want to find out what is happening. With a shaky hand, he unlocks his door, turns the handle and slowly, sooo slowly eases it open just a crack. The lights are still on in the corridor which helps Peregrine tell that the corridor seems to be empty. He sighs with relief, a weight lifted off his shoulders. Maybe he just dreamed the noise.

Feeling better he pushes open the door and actually steps out into the corridor, clearly a mistake. Melting out of the shadows down the long hallway is

Lowell

. Without hesitation he raises his gun in one fluid motion and pulls the trigger shooting poor PeregrineV in the back of the head.

I knew he was scum!


Good job Fonz, you had me fooled. You would have definitely sealed it by being willing to vote for Sathoris (but you seemed reluctant, and stuck on Enigma) and not having the fake moment of doubt. But, very well played, esp. because following your endgame strategy guaranteed you the win (you being BP).

Great game, and great mod job. My first game to actually use excel in vote analysis, and I'm glad it actually provided data to work with.

[PeregrineV]

There were some NKs what threw me also, but I figured they were going for the American wincon instead of total town annihilation.