Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[lewarcher82]

vote: CSL

cause he once voted me in the open list

[lewarcher82]

@DTM: just remember that if you doing a meta read on us, Andy and I have much different playing styles and thus it will only work half the time.

-

Toast

^ not liking this very much, but:

REALLY. You played the n00b card. That's a GREAT defense bro. Use it all the time.
NOT. That's a bullshit defense and doesn't mean anything other than you can't defend your actions in a pro-town method without some sort of justification- here appealing to the n00b mentality that any mistake can be "oh lulz imma newb without a brain herp derp".

^liking this quite a lot.

For the record i am being serious too, I acted like a retarded newb on purpose I actually know what I am doing... sorta. People don't agree with my play style because I usually either win or get lynched Day 1 / 2

you played the part of the retarded newb pretty well, congrats.

unvote: CSL; vote: Lelouch

you say you are not really a noob VI, so you sure can handle a couple of votes, don't you? Start from explaining where you were serious and where you weren't.

@everyone:

please, when you quote people, make sure you include the name of the player. It pisses me off when I have to go back and look for the quote to understand who you are answering to. Especially in large games.

[lewarcher82]

@ODM

wagon analysis is the core strategy of my play, too...

but why declaring the intention of wagon analysis before the wagons have reached a critical mass? You are clearly influencing the votes of the players - both scum and town - that have not yet decided who they will vote. Why are you doing this?

[lewarcher82]

Since I did it for myself (a lot happened in 3 pages), I think I can just share it:

Unofficial votecount

DarlaBlueEyes - 6 - Tragedy, Pinky and the Brain, DTMaster GhostWriter, Espeonage, ObliviousDruidMuncher (L-5)
The Master Hand - 2 - RedCoyote, DTMaster (L-9)
ObliviousDruidMuncher - 2 - thil13, danakillsu, (L-9)
RedCoyote - 1 - DarlaBlueEyes (L-10)
Lelouch VI Britannia - 4 - The Master Hand, lewarcher82, esuriospiritus, CSL (L-7)
Crazypianist - 2 - Ashblade, Lelouch VI Britannia (L-9)
Tragedy - 1 - Crazypianist (L-10)
Ghostwriter - 1 - Lucresia (L-10)
mb53 - 1 - Dekes (L-10)
Pinky&tB - 1 - mb53 (L-10)

@Dekes: you are right, discussing nameclaiming d1 is ridiculous. And a propos nameclaiming: I have been in 3 or 4 theme games before, and as far as I recall scum always get fake names and sometimes even fake roles. Whoever proposed the nameclaim must be kidding, or is mafia willing to look town.

on the gambit: it was a way like any other to end the RVS.

@the Darla-voters: can I please have a summary of your case on her?

[lewarcher82]

Lelouch, I am starting to a have a weird feeling about you. Checking your meta, I realised that you never completed a game on this site, and apparently this and another ongoing

large

are the first games you are playing here. Otherwise, in the other game you liked to some offsite meta of yours.

Now, for your information: this game will last

months

. You are playing it like I would play instant mafia. Why the hell do you claim on day one on L-7? It is stupid, it is against any pro-town strategy. A VT is not a confirmable role. After a VT claim, if you wish to stay alive you need to prove you are pro-town, and you are not going to achieve this with an OMGUS.

This kind of situation generates a problematic pattern that always leads to theoretical discussion: how do we distinguish a town VI from a scum VI? I don't feel good about you. My guts say my vote is a good one, and I have recently seen noobs who played poorly and won as scum because they played the noob-card and no one really cared about them (Amrun in x-files mafia). But I need you to quit talking nonsense about your major strategies (believe me, they are just stupid) and answer some game related questions.

1) what do you think of mb53?
2) what do you think of Espeonage?
3) what do you think of Tragedy?

@Tragedy: I include you in the questions I want Lelouch to answer because you now definitely qualify as semi-lurker... is Lelouch really the only player you have reads on?

@ODM: you accuse Lelouch of namefishing for a simpe question they asked, but you seem to ignore the fact that Espeonage (#80) proposed a massnameclaim, or at least he suggested to discuss the option. Why?

@Espeonage: why in the world would we massnameclaim on day 1? Have you ever seen a theme game in which it actually worked?

[lewarcher82]

uhm, I need to be more clear about ODM: I want to know why in your opinion Lelouch's post qualifies as namefishing and Espeonage's post does not.

[lewarcher82]

Thanks Tragedy for posting filler again. If I wanted to teach someone, I'd go play the IC. New players shouldn't start with large theme games. I am voting him for being scummy. I have explained what I think of people who play the noob card and manage never to get lynched, and I stick to my position. However, I do change my vote if my target starts looking townier or if some good case emerges.

Lelouch is *not* looking townier, but I did find something worth discussing:

Cute.

Did your buddies tell you to say that

or did you come up with that all on your own?

Eusorio, what the hell does the part in bold mean? Are you implying mafia has daytalk? Please explain why, how and how wouold you know such a thing.

unvote: vote eusorio

mod: we need votecounts more frequently, please

[lewarcher82]

well, I didn't notice it until I saw Dekes writing this:

I can't be the only one who saw it.

Unvote; Vote: eusorio

I wondered what it was he claimed to have "seen" and I re-read your ISO. If he wasn't referring to this apparent slip of yours, I have no idea why he is voting you.

However, crappy case is crappy: I confess I didn't read the whole ruleset.

My vote goes back where it was:

unvote; vote Lelouch

[lewarcher82]

@Lew: So just because your case is pretty crappy of esuriospiritus, that's why you went back to lynching Lelouch?

"I do change my vote if my target starts looking townier or if some good case emerges. "

So you're not going to make a decent case on esuriospiritus and quit on a case you call 'crappy'?

I was voting Lelouch and only moved to eusorio because I thought I had seen a scumslip. Turned out I was wrong. Moved back to Lelouch. Did I ever manifest the intention of making a case on eusorio apart from the alleged scumslip?

Someone said Lelouch is trying to provide his reads on people. I will concede that he is posting about some townreads. however, saying that:

PatB looks town (with no reason provided)
Dekes looks town (with no reason provided)
Tragedy may be a doc (!!!!) : why? for prodding people to give a response. To what? I don't know. Please someone direct me to this pro-town activity of Tragedy, because I don't find it.

This is really not what I call giving reads. To the least it is posting gut feelings, while in the worst possible case his read of Tragedy may be fishing for a doc.

To which I will add: claiming VT out of nowhere; using bullshit justifications for his lack of replies to the points raised against him (draft lost and cousing killing the router), often referring to town roles such as doc and vig (potential fishing, again: I say what vig should do and wait for the reactions of town players), a ridiculous OMGUS vote on eusorio based on the following consideration: "I came up with it all on my own according to the reactions of the Scum player his buddies have not posted yet. and HE IS SCUM. KILL HIM."

^this is what I saw. What eusorio added now:

Ugh, my draft for this post is mysteriously gone. ;_;

Anyway,

here is what I've been going on and on about the last couple of days:

In addition to everything I and others have pointed out about Lelouch's play that is scummy, he's also committed a pretty big gaffe, and I'm honestly surprised I'm the only one who caught it.

Take a look at this thread, in which Lelouch mentions 'a better way of doing quicktopics'. Note the time the thread was posted -- it was in between when JMJ said he was sending out roles and the time he said the game was starting. As far as I can tell from reading his "search all user's posts" thing he started no other games around this time. I assume most of you are smart enough to put two-and-two together from this point.

When I discovered this was, as I mentioned, when I read the rules in full, to see if there was any rule against using this as part of my case against him. As long as I don't talk about ongoing games (I'll let you research for yourself whether it's plausible or not that he was referring to any other ongoing games here, but hint: it's not) there's nothing in the rules against making a case based on something outside of the game.

If this happened coming from a smarter poster, I'd probably give that person the benefit of the doubt. But I totally wouldn't put it past Lelouch to get a scum PM, realize we use QT at this site, and immediately wander over to "site ideas" to tell everyone about how 'other site x' does talking-to-your-buddies better than we do without thinking about the ramifications of making his post when he made it.

Feel free to lynch/bus/distance from obvious scum now.

is an interesting hypothesis. I am usually suspicious of quick wagons, but THIS quick wagon prolly means that his scumbddies are abandoning him. He will flip scum, and we will have some good stuff to work with, namely wagon analysis: many people joined the wagon after eusorio posted her contribution.

@Lelouch: you are at L-2. You should consider defending. You have once written that on saturdays you would have been very prolific. The night of saturday brought you at L-2. Where are your posts?

[lewarcher82]

BUT YOU KNOW ESURIO IS JUST SCUM SO IS GHOSTWRITER TRAGEDY HAS A HIGH CHANCE TOO (

WHEN THE FUCK DID I CALL TRAGEDY A DOCTOR

?!)

as for

Tragedy

, he seems to just be prodding people to get a response I don't see any real threat from him

appears to be a Doc trying to figure out who to protect but thats my opinion

. I got a town read on him idk why maybe cus i played marathons with him XD

my bold.

[lewarcher82]

I have a conference tomorrow: I will be V/LA for about 24 hours... if it lasts longer, I will make sure to make a quick post tomorrow night

[lewarcher82]

so, conference going on tomorrow and I have a lot of work to do, but as promised I jump in and make a quick post. I have said all I need to say about Lelouch. I think he is scum VI. Why scum? Because he lies. For instance about Tragedy: he denied ever saying she was a doc. I called him out on that. He answered he has changed his mind, cuz Tragedy has apparently done something horrible that made him change his mind. What? No idea. Mistery. Not a word. My read: noobish attempt at distancing, probably suggested by his scumbuddies, since they apparently have daytalk. Moreover, his activity tended to decrease after his "Fuck you all lynch me" post, and this is a scum-tell to me. A frustrated town VI would fight like a stupid lion cornered in this situation.

But this is old stuff. One new thing I wish to add, tho. He is stalling close to a lynch. This probably happens because some scumbuddies bussed him, and some didn't. The ones who didn't know that voting him now would be scummy.

This is my read of the current situation. I cannot do much more right now. But I would like to know where is ODM (seriously, open his ISO and tell me if you find content). And above all I want to know what is tragedy doing: she asks questions that barely qualify as filler - actually the same question to several players: "why r you voting Lelouch?" - and she seems to refuse doing anything more than this.

mod: try this: start>run>notepad, copypaste your last votecount and update it manually reading the thread worked for me as a mod

[lewarcher82]

@mod: conference is over.

If I am not active enough, I have no justification

what bothers me in particular about Lelouch's late activity is that he lies. I already said he lied about not callin tragedy a doc (fishing or folly?), and now this:

So are you saying that its not possible I never died in another game and happen to be in a Dead people QT?

wth? I have simply checked all your meta: you are alive in two games and in pregame in a couple of other ones. And you are only dead in Marathon stuff...

I am not particularly concerned with your "gaffe"; what bothers me is your attitude. I have never seen town VI's who consistently lie. They rather tend to convince town of their true alignment. What is the point in your attitude?

Unless, of course, you really are as stupid as TMH implied, and you are completely unable to understand even the elementary meaning of what you write... is that so, Lelouch?

@Tragedy: let's forget the damn "gaffe". You think Lelouch is town. I have posted reasons why I think he isn't. Can you tell me why the hell he lies about everything?

I was being called a doc..? I'm not even a doctor at all..

and please, don't claim, can you? There is already enough shit going on.

@Espeonage: no, nameclaim is common in themed, but not on day 1. Bullshit. And if you want to call Lelouch obvtown, you should provide some reasons. Your content, your cautious posting and my guts tell me that if he is scum, you are probably scum trying to wifom, and tomorrow you will say "come on guys, I wouldn't have defended him if I knew he was scum". If for any reason my brains evaporated and he is town, you really look like scum trying to get towncred for defending the VI.

[lewarcher82]

... Esurio you sound so sure that I will be gone soon whys that what if I don't get lynched are you implying I will be night killed by you?

You mean esurio is scum? Believe me Lelouch, if you were town (and you are not), scum would never nk you. Sad (for you) but true.

I agree with esurio about insults:

mod: I think you should warn Lelouch and TMH... this should be a game based on subtle reasoning and brilliant dissimulation, and they are arguing like two angry cavemen.

[lewarcher82]

oh come on ODM&CSL: your lurking damages the game much more than the TMH and Lelouch arguing. It was only a couple of posts, we protested, TMH apologised...

@TMH: I'd rather lose two lurkers than 1 active player. Please, reconsider.

I am not even entering the discussion "would scum replace out". All of this is stupid. ODM and CSL should stay in the game and start playing, which neither has yet done.

[lewarcher82]

huh... I didn't see Lelouch last post before mod deleted it, and now I have no idea why people are saying he claimed scum. However, it looks like mod doesn't want that post to exist, so I will have to quit referring to it, and so should do anyone else... as long as it is the topic of your discussion, I can by no means make any comments.

The nameclaim: per se it is absolutely believable, and consistent with breadcrumbs. However, it can be a scum role, or it can even be a fakename provided by the mod: I don't remember playing a themed game in which mod did not provide fake names /roles to mafia. Therefore: irrelevant.

@Jack: you are on L-2 because Dekes unvoted. Fair enough. Go on, convince me. But if the only argument you will find to explain:

Lelouch's blatant lies;
Lelouch's early claim;
Lelouch's posting a list of possible names;
Lelouch's rolefishing;
Lelouch's backtrack on Tragedy

is the fact that he was an idiot, I am afraid I won't consider your answers relevant, because it would basically be like saying: "please, ignore everything that happened so far, let me start over".

[lewarcher82]

But I'd like to point out that scum were probably given fakeclaims. (PEDIT: Whoops, kept reading after this post and realized lewarcher already addressed this possibility).

yes, this game often requires that players who can actually play state the obvious.

@TheJakalope: Why are you completely blaming your newfound scumminess onto your previous slot? You know if you're going to make a case on him, you should do that in a game WITH him, not after replacing him. Nuh uh.

"he just wants to screw over the town that wasn't agreeing with him."

I haven't agreed anything to him, does it look like he wants to screw me over? Doesn't look like a good plan of intent.

I was saying that he's twn except the other town members weren't agreeing with him, so he wants to force them to kill a townie.

^ how to waste two posts pretending to be discussing and actually saying nothing new.


@TheJakalope: so you are basically distancing from the people who defended you (Espeo, Tragedy). Very well, perfectly consistent with you and at least one of them (possibly both) being scum.

[lewarcher82]

Tragedy was caustiously opposing Lelouch wagon without providing any argument whatsoever (the "cautiously"-part makes the word "defend" that I used too strong, you are right, but this is even scummier to me)... in posts 20 and 21 she starts hinting to a different target (thil), but she did not build any case. After Lelouch's replacement, she gradually steps back and now she agrees with Dekes on Jak's scummyness. This is what I see when I open her ISO. (P-EDIT pinky provided some useful quotes, he is not lazy as I am.)

as for Espeonage, he insisted proclaiming a townread of Lelouch. I fail to see how it is even possible. Moreover, he did never provide a positive argument in favour of Lelouch either.

Rereading the last pages, I became aware that I have not paid enough attention to mb53's game. He did have a point about tragedy not posting content, but he also defended Lelouch out of nowhere: I don't like his ISO 15 and 16. I therefore accept his offer in post 16 and ask him to direct me to meta in which he defended scum and was town.

my scumreads so far: Lelouch > Espeonage > Tragedy
my townreads so far: esurio > Dekes
leaning scum: mb53 (probably not scum with tragedy)
leaning town: TMH (only leaning, because I generally like his posts, but his attack on Lelouch may be read as strong distancing)

[lewarcher82]

I am a little nervous about this scumclaim stuff now. Espy, Espy, why would anyone would let someone who has claimed VT and then, apparently, scum, stay alive after day1? He never claimed a PR, even if he were town (and he is not), his elimination would:

1) provide a lot of wagon-information;
2) eliminate a huge amount of wifom-shit.

The only reason why you would insist he is town is that you wanna appear town to us, while you perfectly know that he *is* scum because you are scum with him.

[lewarcher82]

I PM'd Kinetic about this issue, like we went to VRK for the aaah/wizrak scandal that resulted in multiple bans.
Hopefully we'll get some sort of admin involvement, since the moderators and players don't seem to be enough.

-The One and Only Baker

I was about to pm mith, but I realised that he had already put Lelouch on probation on Thursday, so I did not. However, I wil pm him now, because Lelouch deserves a ban. No doubt about it.

[lewarcher82]

The quotes mb53 included in his last pointless post are mine, not of RC.

[lewarcher82]

Vote: esurio

Same reasons as yesterday.

you must be kidding me. Esurio is definitely town. Her case on Lelouch was genuine... come on, she was even convinced to have found a scum-slip.

vote: Esepeonage

Lucresia: I think you really need to explain a couple of things:
1) did you know you were hammering when you hammered? If yes: why did you not wait for the replacements? If not: why did you feel the need of justifying your vote with these five lines of nothing?

I noticed I still had my RVS vote so UNVOTE:

The behavior by Lelouch made me think he was town VI, but the more and more he was talking I kept thinking more on the lines of scum VI. I am concerned however that he may have just claimed scum so he could screw our whole town over since we were at the verge of lynching him when he was replaced. However, I find it more likely that he is actually mafia and then played against his wincon as mafia by claiming since he had nothing to lose anymore. I think it's the best lead we are probably going to have towards scum on day 1, and I am going to place my vote as well.

SSBF(1): I quite agree with your analysis of Danakillsu, and I don't like the way he tried to divide people in "on the wagon" and "not on the wagon"... scum was evidently both on and off the wagon. Assuming otherwise is puerile or scummy. And the timing and poor justification of Dana's vote is a perfect example of someone ON the wagon who could easily be scum.

SSBF(2): I disagree with your TMH read. You have to consider that: (1) he acted very town until he voted and (2) he seemed sincerely convinced that Lelouch had claimed scum. I am still leaning towm.

Dana: What I have written above + please, again, write the name of the players you quote. Thx.

Tragedy: come in and do something. Your scumminess started with the way you sneakily opposed Lelouch wagon, and it reached its full potential when a you had to offer instead was voting a lurker (thil). How long will you keep ignoring that there is a lot of stuff going on in this game?

[lewarcher82]

Tragdy, I think you are playing dumb. As far as I see, and according to my read of your play, the problem is exactly that you:

1) refused to join the wagon on Lelouch;
2) questioned people voting him even though he was scummy as hell;
3) never bothered putting together a defense of Lelouch.

Explanation (at least, the only explanation I see): you are scum. You knew he was town. You wanted to look town by not supporting the wagon. But you didn't really defend him because you wanted him to die: scum always want townies to be lynched.

@Espeonage: I re-read your ISO and it's outrageously contentless. You never explained your townread on Lelouch. Do it now. Should be easier "now that you know he is town" (heh, being scum, you knew it yesterday as well, didn't you? but let's say you didn't)...

@RedCoyote; your post sounds ok to me. But I am surprised you didn't mention danakillsu among the people whose votes on lelouch don't look convincing. I also want to know what you think of TMH: it is the biggest difference between my views and SSBF's views.

[lewarcher82]

@Dana: I really had the feeling you wanted to concentrate all attention on the players out of the wagon. I may have misinterpreted you. But still, you are a player who casted a poorly justified vote on Lelouch (and it wasn't so hard to cast a justified vote). So I do think - as I have been saying for a while now - that there were scumplayers out of the wagon (Trag and Espe are my bet, atm), but I also think that there was scum on the wagon too, and you are one of the wagonvoters I will keep my eye on.

@SSBF: long wall, I will have to re-read it, but I don't quite agree with a couple of things. I still think your case on TMH is very weak, and I still feel that Dekes and esurio ARE obvtown. I will articulate on this in a longer post tomorrow.

@GW, if you don't explain what bothers you, your post is pretty useless and quite hard for us to read. ISO 2 is the post in which Dana voted. I also criticised that vote, but you need to post some reasons for your dislike. Pease, do.

[lewarcher82]

I have been skeptical towards voting blocks in the past, but I must agree that they sometimes work, and this game may really benefit from something like this: we need a momentum after Lelouch's failflip.

Since my townread of Dekes and Esurio is very strong, count me in.

my probtown list is composed by players who are also on your list, but not all of them. Namely (townier up, the 4 whom I'll accept in a VB):

TMH:

as I said, I disagree with SSBF's case on TMH.

SSBF:

I disagree with some of his points, as I said, but I am getting townvibes.

PatB:

no strong read, but his attitude towards the Lelouch wagon sounds townish to me.

CrazyPianist:

I really have no strong read. ISO 2 and 3 sounds townish to me. I'd like to see more content, but ok.

two other players from your list are nullreads to me

RedCoyote:

he is extremely difficult to read. His case on mb53 is interesting, because it is the first real case on mb53. But to be honest, I liked it better the first time I read it. But I will accept him in VB in case Dekes agrees with you about him.

ODM/sorasgoof:

soras just joined, and ODM didn't strike me as particularly town. I asked a question in my ISO 4 and I repeated it in my ISO 5. He never answered. It may be a very relevant question in case Espeonage is scum. And I think Espeonage is scum. So I'd say no: I don't want to make a joint block with him before soras is done reading and posts some content.

finally, you prolly aready know what I think about this:

Espeonage:

nope. Very likely scum here. forgetaboutit.

[lewarcher82]

@Espeonage: thanks for your last post full of nothing. The tl;dr of it is: your experience gave you tools (that I evidently don't have) to distinguish a scum VI from a town VI. The big towntell about lelouch is that he was defending himself? Could you please give me the exact reference to the posts in which Lelouch was so evidently trying to help town?
And let me ask you another question: esurio pointed out a possible scumslip of Lelouch. After her post, people commented on it. Some believed she was right, some were unsure, and so on... you posted a couple of times after the apparent slip was pointed out by esurio. In your posts, you never mentioned it. Why?

What I think is that you knew it couldn't be a scumslip, because you are scum, but you couldn't explain why, because you could not make up anything and risk to be contraddicted by lelouch himself, and naturally you could not tell the *real* reason why you knew it wasn't a scumslip. So you had to keep posting your contentless defense of the scummy VI, ignoring the one point that you were unable to comment.

If you have any other explanation, by all means, try to convince me.

[lewarcher82]

Tragedy's style this time around is different from the scum games I've played with him, so I'm actually getting a town read.

Can you fill this out so it's a useful comment to someone other than you?

Yes, please, fill it out. As far as I see - checking my own memory and her huge and superfluous amount of posts on this site - Tragedy was scum in one game only: Frenzy mafia. Is it the game you are referring to? And if it is, is the comparison significant, considering that it was probably her *first* game on this site (Trag correct me if this is wrong)?

Moreover: apart from meta, do you think she was scummy or not? If you do, I find it irrelevant to state that she is scummy in a different way than she used to be in her first game a couple of months ago. If you don't, show me her pro-town content, please, because I don't see it.

@RC: about espe ignoring the apparent slip you write:

This is a good point. I don't remember Espeonage or mb53 (possibly others) ever bringing this up, come to think of it.

Glad you appreciate it. However, mb53 did mention it, as far as I see. A crappy comment, but at least he did not ignore it:

Maybe I am wrong with my read on lelouch (I have accidentally defended scum before, I can link if you want me to), but I feel he is genuinly trying (even in the post where he gave up he was scum hunting lol). I don't know what to think of the quicktopic topic, it may or may not be a coincidence.

Weird: you made a case on him, I assumed you checked his ISO.

@Dana: the below post is noise. I don't get it. Are you calling SSBF scum? Or someone else who FoS'd you? Me? Who is it that is trying to make you look scummy?

This is something I'm not going to do at this stage in the game. I have seen this pattern before. Someone asks me specifically out of a crowd of people who have not done the same to make a list of scumreads with reasons, then jumps all over it because they can make it look scummy and they want to. This inevitably ends in my lynch and my scumreads are never used by the town. Not gonna happen. I've given you the reasons I'm voting Espeonage, and it should be enough.

@Darla: quit prod-dodging or get replaced.

[lewarcher82]

for the first time in 5 days I actually have a 15 minute-break for lunch, so here a quick post.

@mb53: so voting block is awesome, but you don't vote with the block?

@Tragedy: how is "NOT ONLY DID TOWNIES NOT DIE, DOCTOR HAS A CLEAR, FUN" a scumtell? Expalin this in good English and stop posting unfinished sentences, I am ESL but I have written a damn book in English, so I don't think it's my fault if your posts give me headache.

[lewarcher82]

Mod: I am going to do a bold speculation as to why your votecounts are broken. I think that if we don't unvote, your software will count our votes twice

I suggest you just change the rule and require that we unvote.

[lewarcher82]

@lewarcher82: I'm not sure how that's suppose to indicate scum, as I'm not seeing it. Me, RedCoyote, and Pinky and the Brain have also agreed that this voting bloc is a good idea while not voting Espeonage, yet you never called us out for it. What makes mb53's post different from ours? That said, it is a crappy return post.

The difference is big: when you guys said you like the bloc idea, the bloc did not yet exist, and we were all voting different players. When mb53 said the bloc is awesome, we had all put our votes on Espeonage, so if he wants to say he approves the bloc he is at least supposed to take into account the player the bloc is voting for.

when asked to, mb53 explains his vote:

@mb53: so voting block is awesome, but you don't vote with the block?

A few reasons: 1. I'm not actually on the block >_>
2. I'm not convinced on espeo scum yet
3. Nothing wrong with spreading the pressure

@RC As I said, my suspects are pretty much the same as yesterday, and I thought that tragedy would be the best place for my vote at the moment

That post of thil also reads town to me.

1. it's not like the bloc has the monopoly of the espeo votes;
2. then post some content and possibly a case on someone else
3. yes, true. I will accept point 3.

@RC: huh, we were talking about the Quicktopic apparent slip, not about the general case. You said mb53 never mentioned it. I answered you that he did:

I don't know what to think of the quicktopic topic, it may or may not be a coincidence.

did I misunderstand what you meant?

[lewarcher82]

V/LA til sunday night, but I will try to do a quick post tomorrow night if I can

[lewarcher82]

back from V/LA

and see what I find!

6) Mass Inactivity: In an act of pure villainy, we may shorten the deadline if we deem the activity level is unsatisfactory. You will be warned if we want you fellows to pick up the pace.

Consider that a warning.

^unfair mod. it's Easter, you replaced those who must be replaced, but you cannot expect everyone to be online actually,

I hereby ask you for a two- or three-day extension of the deadline to make up for the Easter weekend's low activity and to give the replacements the time to re-read.

Moving backwards at stuff directly addressed or about me.
@ esurio: Not vote hopping. Voted you. Got told, changed vote to someone hiding.
@ crazy: Have you played with many vigs? Vigs are usually encouraged to kill the people that are being distracting to town and leave the scummy people to be lynched.
@ Tragedy: I do believe I pointed out in basics why LVB was town. If you look back you will find that my larger post was just me expanding.
@ Tragedy: I did point out I thought he was town. I can even point out the specific post that led me to the "newb town iioa" tell that I talked about.\
@ Lewarcher: ^ see directly above. I'll provide a couple of examples.
I'll go have a look back. I don't even remember anyone talking about a scumslip other than when he was being a douche after being replaced out.
Can't say more than that.
@ Dekes: No.
@ GW: I wouldn't have over the top expanded had it not been damanded of me to provide explaination of my stance on him.

nvm the multiple posts nothing warranted more than a sentance.

on esurio

: please provide reasons for unvoting her and switching to xtoxm.

on vigs

: wanting vigs to shoot someone whom you consider (actually: know to be) a town VI is very convenient if you are scum: this will guarantee that vig won't shoot anyone of your team at least from one night.

on LVB

: no, you did not point out why he was town. Unless we are all stupid, he was scummy as hell. You never addressed any of the points made by those who posted cases on him. Your comments are superficial and probably made up because you don't know what to answer. And the fact that you dodged the problem of the apparent scumslip is almost a conclusive proof: you could find no way to dismiss it without using information you cannot share with town.

But you're feisty enough, you're probably town.

Will you think I'm town if I clear you?

Whats with this post?

Why are you even asking?????? Even if there was something to read in Y's post, it would be extremely anti-town to discuss it. We are not blind. If Dekes dismissed it so quickly he has a damn good reason.

You are getting a ton of scumpoints for this

.

[lewarcher82]

^unfair mod. it's Easter, you replaced those who must be replaced, but you cannot expect everyone to be online actually, I hereby ask you for a two- or three-day extension of the deadline to make up for the Easter weekend's low activity and to give the replacements the time to re-read.

Only thing is that this isn't a recent problem that arose over Easter. Anyway, we have ten days left, no need for extension, people just need to get active.

@GW
Instead of pointing out errors in the votecount you should maybe start getting involved and stuff, beginning with answering questions directed at you.


I don't feel a Tragedy lynch today. It's obvious, Espeo is laying low hoping for the Tragedy wagon to surpass his own. His vote is on xtomx aka in the middle of nowhere, he's not giving out any other reads but Tragedy and xtomx and he's not scumhunting in the slightest, only responding to stuff directed him.

mod, sorry: I thought deadline was april the 30th, but apparently it's may the 5th... I probably ate too much

@Dekes: I supported and still support espeo's lynch. His last post was a celebration of empty-posting. However, I don't quite agree with your analysis. I still think there is a good chance both espeo and tragedy are scum: if Espeo was the only one who is scum, he would have been fighting much stronger to get tragedy lynched, and vice versa...

[lewarcher82]

Quick summary of my current thoughts:

I have 3 suspects at this time. In order, they are:

#1.

TMH

- I don't like how he attacked Lelouch, it looks scum motivated. He comes across

far

too confident in Lelouch's lynch for it to be from a town perspective. It doesn't matter how allegedly scummy Lelouch was, no pro-town player can be that confident of a day one lynch.

#2.

SSBF

- He gives me weird vibes. He's coming across as a sycophantic factotum. Like he's trying too hard to appear pro-town.

#3.

Dana

- Feels off to me. I like the points GW has raised, I too find iso #2 very unsettling. Other posts of his also rub me the wrong way, and scanning his iso, nothing of his gives me any town inclinations.

These are the flips that I am most interested in at this time. I'm yet to really become interested in this game. Some more deaths to draw out the game's theme would make it more exciting.

On Tragedy and Espeonage: Neither has impacted on me in any way to alter my reads of them from null. If one of these two are to die today, then i'm not too bothered which one.

I'm going to be spending around 12 hours traveling between cities this week, so I probably won't be able to post much.

::badposting::

#1 - ok, let's say he was overconfident. If "no pro-town player can be that confident of a day one lynch", how come you don't feel the need to comment on Lucresia's hammer?

#2 - I disagree on some points raised by SSBF, but I really don't see what in the hell would make him look like scum trying to appear town. SSBF is not sheeping other pro-town players, but rather posting original content.

#3 - yes, I agree on Dana, but you are saying nothing new.

Tragedy and Espeonage null: lolwut??? ok, let me just take one single example: Espeonage proposed a massnameclaim on day 1. Is this NOT scummy to you????

All in all, either your catch up is very superficial or you are ignoring a lot of stuff on purpose.

[lewarcher82]

Calling him scummm... Right.
Calling ON him due to lurking.

this post is ridiculous.

Tragedy, basically you *never* defended Lelouch, but you opposed the wagon on him. You voted thil for lurking but you *never* stated it was his lurking that makes him scummy to you... When I read this post of yours, I was actually laughing irl.

@ Bunnylover
Let me just ask you this. Reading Lelouch's iso, what do you think was scummy about him? I of course realize that Lelouch was town, but tell me in detail where you think the scumtells were. It might shed some light on my supposedly terrible vote.

Um are you asking BL to explain your vote for you?

I like this post by Ythan. It's the closest thing to goodposting he did so far, and dana *is* scummy.

So much scum in this game that need to die... adding bunny to my list, catchup post full of fluff and useless information

@Mb53: Where did the strong scum read on me come from?

Ok, case ahoy!

Spoiler: Page by page case

Page 1-2: RVSness
Page 3: fluff.
Page 4: Still RVS tunneling
Page 5: Clarifies that her vote on DBE is still RVS
(notice that you are doing

nothing

while everyone else is actually contributing?
Page 6: OMG A GAME RELEVANT POST (sort of). Says that lelouch shouldn't play newb card.
Page 7: casts slight suspicion of lew
Page 8: Still says that she wants her RVS vote on DBE
Page 9:
Page 10: Votes lurker and tells him to contribute (lol)
Page 11: Woohoo, actually gives a legitimate scum read (on dana) (took you long enough)
Page 12: Clarifies that the only reason thil is scum is lurking (really, thats all you got?)
Page 13:
Page 14:
Page 15: Responds to suspicion with "Love you, hoppster <3"
Page 16:
Page 17:
Page 18: Says that town should have lynched the lurker rather than the suspicious person (lol)
Page 19: Says that she thought it was clear lelouch was town VI rather than scum (COUGH COUGH, AFTER THE LYNCH)
Page 20: Calls espeonage out for not defending lelouch more before the lynch (COUGH COUGH, PAGE 19)
Page 21: Says that newbies should defend themselves (lol page 20)
Page 22: Casts suspicion on crazy (still no vote)
Page 23: Says that she wants to pressure thil into posting (still no vote?)
Page 24: FINALLY VOTES espeonage

for not saying why he thought lelouch was town earlier

to sheep voting block

TL;DR

TRagedy is doing pretty much nothing: trying to get by voting lurkers for not contributing (Har har, hypocrite), sheeps voting bloc using meh/hypocritical reasons. Also voting DBE early game was bad.

finally mb53 is back, with a case. It's not like this is a case with a lot of new content, but it's better than he did so far... Question for you, mb53: were you really surprised when trag said lelouch was obvtown on page 19? Did you think she thought he was scum?

----
@crazypianist: I believe Tragedy and Espeo are both scum. I also think that if Espeo dies first, tomorrow we will have a lot to work with, because Tragedy posted and will post more

content

words so far, while Espeo is very avoidant... I would still pick Espeo first.

[lewarcher82]

Tragedy, for the n^th time I cannot understand what you have written. PLEASE POST IN ENGLISH.

[lewarcher82]

Voting with the bloc.

VOTE: Tragedy

THIS IS L-1.

TRAGEDY, IF SOMEONE ANNOUNCES INTENT TO HAMMER, PLEASE CLAIM.

I've had no desire whatsoever to deal with this game lately and am considering replacing out. Maybe Dead Tragedyscum will fix the activity levels somewhat and make this game more fun/interesting.

If I vote with the bloc as well it will be a hammer. Therefore Tragedy must claim now.

[lewarcher82]

I'm here today.

Thanks for being here.

vote: Espeonage

[lewarcher82]

So if I understand this correctly, the whole thing that is making Espeonage scummy is because he called Lelouche town, correct?

nope, he didn't just say he LVB was town, but he also never really had the tiniest little doubt. He also failed to provide any reason why he thought LVB was town. He insisted saying he could tell the difference between town VI and scum VI. When we called this scummy, he lurked til day was over. He also failed to make a case about someone else, and he started the game by proposing a massnameclaim on day1.

@Dana: I think your hammer is very scummy. In several cases, recklessness in hammering is a towntell, but the exception is when someone wants to hammer before someone else unvotes. I myself was probably going to hammer Tragedy in a few hous, because I found her scummy and because the rest of the bloc had moved votes there. But you didn't give anyone the time of deciding if the caim was believable or not. You say you did it because claim was ridiculous. Can you explain me why? What exactly made you feel the caim was fake?

@ Kdub: What was your read on Tragedy whilst catching up?

Well, I read the game knowing in advance that Tragedy was town, so I don't think I can answer this question fairly. I was mainly looking for "what are other people's reasons for voting her?" rather than "what is her alignment?"

this is not goodposting. How can you read the game if you don't try to put yourself in the position of the players on each day? I am not liking this. Ignoring the scumminess of a flipped town looks like a good way to tunnel people. However, please, share your results: why did people vote Tragedy?

[lewarcher82]

OHSHI- I hadn't realized we started just yet, my bad.

Currently reading; anyone have any questions for me? Spots you want me to look into?

It's better if you decide what is relevant and what is not by yourself.

[lewarcher82]

@Dana: I think your hammer is very scummy. In several cases, recklessness in hammering is a towntell, but the exception is when someone wants to hammer before someone else unvotes. I myself was probably going to hammer Tragedy in a few hous, because I found her scummy and because the rest of the bloc had moved votes there. But you didn't give anyone the time of deciding if the caim was believable or not. You say you did it because claim was ridiculous. Can you explain me why? What exactly made you feel the caim was fake?

Tragedy said "I have nothing to do in this whole game with my power that doesn't exist. Anyways I still don't have a power."
That made no sense to me and looked like Tragedy was trying to make up flavor that the mod gave her which was really just her own work. Add to that the fact that she was claiming ANOTHER obscure character that was a VT, and it just was not believable at all to me. Why would I give someone else time to reconsider when I had decided the claim was fake?

I agree that the claim was made in a weird form, and by all means don't get me wrong: Tragedy was scummy, I thought she was scum and I would have hammered her myself. But if I had asked her to claim, as you did, I would have needed more than 5 minutes to decide it it was or wasn't a convincing claim.

Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:15 pm Trag claims

Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:20 pm you hammer

still looks pretty fast to me. Did you know who waddle doo is? I ask cuz I didn't, I had to google it, and it would have taken me more than 5 minutes to read the claim, check the web, decide that the claim is not believable and hammer.

P-EDIT: @xtoxm - the Espeo wagon hit L-2 yesterday. That is when it grew, not now.

[lewarcher82]

@mod:
1) how long can Espeonage keep prod-dodging?
2) last post by mb53 was on April 28. Can we get him prodded?

@everyone: I have some shit happening. I will be back to normal activity tomorrow.

[lewarcher82]

Bunny's slot was held by an absolute lurker... did you really find something scummy in the slot's ISO?

If so: what?

If you already explained it before, it probably didn't strike me as particulary interesting, because I forgot it. Can you at least direct me to the posts in which you discussed the slot?

[lewarcher82]

Unvote

VOTE: Bunnylover
The other vote sort of served its purpose.

What purpose?

^answer this, please.

[lewarcher82]

Giving me a better read based on reactions. Granted, most o the reactions were on what Thil said to Ythan, I'm gonna, in my mind, chalk it up to my vote setting it off.

You probably misunderstood the meaning of the question. I am not interested in what you think are your merits, but rather in the meaning of your being content with these reactions: does your unvote mean that you now think Ythan is town? Since you voted him to get reactions, sharing details about the results of your analysis would be helpful.

[lewarcher82]

What I do with my vote is completely up to me, I don't think I want to use it yet.

I am unable to see any non-scummy reason for refusing to cast a vote. Unless, of course, someone is at L-1 and you wanna wait for a claim or something, but this is not the case.

What is the advantage of not casting a vote on day 3?

[lewarcher82]

Posting from handy: now we really should lynch espeonage. Why? Because he is scum, and because the fail peole who joined in and attack obvtown are implicitely and explicitely defending him. This espeonage shit went on too long and we really need his flip.

Xtoxm was ridicuulous, no one insulted him. Hohum seems to have more balls, but he should really take some time to reread bfore attacking esurio, for no reason.

And ythan: esurio's laughter was an absolutely understandable reaction.

General information, for thil and everyone: not voting means preventing game from proceeding. Which is evidenntly an advantage to scum. I don't want to hurt the feelings of someone who feels like xtoxm about this game, but who does not understand this basic rules shhould quit mafia and consider bowling instead.

[lewarcher82]

Hohum, you should not assume you can jump into games without evenn rereading. Espeo's lynch would be everything but rushed.

[lewarcher82]

@kdub, if you want me to reconsider my vote on someone I have considered to be scum for weeks, you should probably explain me the reasons why you think he is town.

How is what Espeo is doing right now any different from what he was doing yesterday? He lurked untile the wagon moved to someone else.

EVERYONE LOOK AT HIS ACTIVITY: he has been posting in other threads, but here he pretends his internet isn't working. What the hell do you need more than this?

[lewarcher82]

hohum, may I ask you if you read the thread?

@kdub: I fail to see any reason why not revealing your reads is pro-town. Naturally there is a possibility, but it is a possibility that must not be discussed (I am sure you are smart enough to see what I mean). Therefore, by mentioning what you mentioned, you are preventing me from discussing Espeo's case with you for basically the rest of the game. Smart move, if you were scum. I am really confused. I will attentively read your slot's iso tomorrow.

@pine: I will give you the time it takes to someone else to realise your slot is scum. No more than that. Seriously, Espeonage lurked and ignored the game, pretended to be without internet and he was posting in other games & threads. As soon as I called him out on this, he posts to replace out. Please, obvscum is obvscum.

@pine(2): the cases on Espeo are in my iso.

Now, I have been driving for 700 Km today, so this is all I will post. Now I will go to sleep. I will examine the case on thil tomorrow, but I won't be happy to see the lurking strategy Espeo used for two whole days save his (pine's) ass again.

[lewarcher82]

about thill: I am unable to convince myself he is acting as scummy as you guys seem to think. chk's case against him sounds bad to me. The alleged contraddiction about the noob-card is a great case of misrepping. I don't know about you, but to me it is evident that thil was claiming new to the site, not new to mafia. I would sure be glad if thil posted more than the short posts he is posting. But for now, he is just an annoying nullish to me.

@GW: I had a look at your catch up and my arms fell on the floor. Do you even pay attention to the game? We all know that scum has daytalk. It is written in the ruleset and esurio made everyone notice it on day 1. If you don't read the thread, you are either dead weight or scum. Also, kdub is perfectly right that you should have caed out the scummy players who were protecting him. Your justification for not doing it is puerile: there is no reason not to go after more than a scummy player at a time. You officially entered my scumlist.

@dana: I used to consider you scummy, but I am liking your ISO 32.

@esurio: I may agree that pine deserves some time to catch up and post, but this does not change the fact that his slot:
1) proposed to massnameclaim on day1
2) defended Lelouch etc. etc.
3) voted esurio out of no reason
4) lurked until the wagon on him moved to tragedy
5) did the same today and right after I proved he was posting in other threads he decided to replace out.

To me, it's a very scummy slot. Therefore, after a lot of people unvoted, I feel no reason to remove my vote from pine. Let him catch up, but let him do it with some good pressure.

[lewarcher82]

I read hohum and am feeling a town-read on him. I disagree with his stance on esurio, however.
The thil votes/cases I agree with, so I feel like that is todays best lynch.
Pine/Espeonage are still very scmmy, but I want him to catch up. There is still the possibility that he legitimately thought lynching lelouch was a bad idea (I still don't think it was). The manner in which he replaced was scummy. Is espeonage still active in his other games?
-

Toast

he posted 7 times today.

[lewarcher82]

I disagree, pine. P&tB has 34 posts, but they are normally distributed all over the game. The first 35 posts by TMH were posted before april 15, after which he started lurking really bad. superficial analysis there, but it prolly depends on the fact that you were not around back then.

[lewarcher82]

@esurio: dunno about the others, but this is what I think about dana. I used to think he was scummy, basically for the reasons discussed since the beginning of day 2. I then liked his iso 32, but his ISO 35 is back to usual scumminess. He is a viable lynch. But after TWO damn wagons grew and colapsed, I still think that espeo/pine lynch would not only dispose of one scum, but also provide us with interesting information about the counterwagons.

I fail to see why the people voting thill don't understand this simple fact. And the reason I fail to see it is that they won't tell.

well, anyway, pine said he is caught up. let's listen to his catch up post and then we will see.

[lewarcher82]

@pinky: huh, it didn't lookso hard to understand. When I say information, I basically mean this:

wagons on espeo/pine grow and collapse due to the lurking of the player who occupies the spot. At the same time, other wagons grow and get other players lynched. This happened on day 2 and will probably happen this day as well. Since scum has daytalk, we may assume that they are coordinating their play bettern than in other games. Therefore, if we lynch pine and he flips scum, we will have a lot of material to work on, starting from the very way the counter wagons started and developped.

[lewarcher82]

people of the old voting bloc were asked what we think of a dana lynch. I answered, now I'd like to ask the very same question to the people on the thil wagon.

[lewarcher82]

I am not 100% confortable with Hydra heads disagreeing with each other in thread. You guys should use your qt, or whatever you use, to discuss the strategy, and then try to keep a coherent behavious in this thread. If you the two heads post in mutual disagreement, reading the slot becomes virtually impossible.

[lewarcher82]

thil, your claim is consistent with my read of espeo, and pine's reaction strikes me funny (he does not seem very surprised), therefore I am inclined to believe you. But you need to explain me one thing. I just checked the espeo wagons and your iso. You never voted for espeo/pine. Why?

[lewarcher82]

Looks like L-2. Again, I could go for either lynch. I could put thil at L-2 instead.

will you please articulate a little more? Do you or don't you believe the claim? Y because.../N because...

I have decided that I definitely believe thil. Although espeo-pine only was at L-4 when he first posted, I think he provided acceptable justification for not voting him. Besides, I stand by my scumread of the slot, and I think that pine's silence in the last 22 hours is absolutely eloquent.

[lewarcher82]

Oh. Claim is VT. Not a big loss for Town.

Oh hell to the no.

also lolhohum, trying to lynch claimed cop over claimed vt.

this. woaaaah, big fat scumpoints for hohum.

[lewarcher82]

ok, let us start from here:

vote: ythan

why would a scum player:
1) claim cop in a themed closed setup, risking a cc;
2) invent an absurd story about him investigating only one night out of two.

why would two mafias (chk = lou and pine), one of which was already hardly fos'd, decide to start a case against a third mafia member? I don't see how chk could be scum with thil. Would on the contrary make perfect sense for you to be scum with them.

Defend.

@kdub: will you now explain in detail why you thought pine was town?

[lewarcher82]

Please show me a world in which chk and thil can be scum together.

[lewarcher82]

PS: A cursory glance at chkflip's and thil's isos tells me Ythan might actually be right. Chkflip replaced out right about the time Thil claimed. If Thil was doing some sort of bussing gambit in order to become confirmed town, that puts other scum in the awkward position of having to decide which scum needs to get bussed more. And Thil's whole claim-but-here's-some-anti-CC-insurance thing doesn't sit well with me.

And if thil

is

scum, the gambit means he is very likely scum power. Om nom nom.

Also, this is setup-guessing, but if Thil was actually town I refuse to believe that someone in the bloc wouldn't have been shot at. Scum would likely assume that any town doc in the setup would protect Thil, meaning us obvtownies are suddenly left bare.

When I re-read in earnest I am going to take a look at other people who reacted awkwardly to the thil/pine thing.

I didn't look at it this way. This is worth considering. Still, letting the bloc live could also be basic wifom (let alone this is the first time we see full night-kill power, so scum may have tried to hit the bloc earlier in game). Or there may have been a good reason to kill someone else. I will re-read the later ISO of the two fresh corpses who turned out to be town and post my conclusions.

[lewarcher82]

Hmm. After reviewing the evidence, I tend to agree that thil's actions read more like inept scum than unfortunate town. I'll

vote: thil

and see what happens. The wagon should at least get us some information. So I guess we have a vig, a SK, and mafia shooting at the same time, then?

you know what would make you look a little less scummy? If you quit joining wagons without explaning why. What evidence did you review? If you had the time for reviewing evidence, how about making a post longer than 3 lines, once in a while?

[lewarcher82]

I have seen

what

needs to be seen... not so subtle, after all, dekes is totally right. Therefore, there are two possible paths, and the wiser is probably to:

unvote

I am still very nervous about the current situation, tho, and the path I picked is already being pressured. So for the time being I prefer to put my vote on another FoS of mine and give thil some more time to post some content. For instance: do you think ythan is scum or just wrong about you? Please answer with more than a line of text.

vote: dana

mod: you punish us for lack of activity, but we should punish you for the lack of votecounts

[lewarcher82]

@Dana: What information will it give us?

What information will what give us?

I

was talking about the wagon, not necessarily his lynch. I'm still not sure if I plan to lynch him.

Hmm. After reviewing the evidence, I tend to agree that thil's actions read more like inept scum than unfortunate town. I'll

vote: thil

and see what happens. The wagon should at least get us some information. So I guess we have a vig, a SK, and mafia shooting at the same time, then?

you know what would make you look a little less scummy? If you quit joining wagons without explaning why. What evidence did you review? If you had the time for reviewing evidence, how about making a post longer than 3 lines, once in a while?

So...you're trying to coach me? If you think I'm scum, why would you want to help me look less scummy? I reviewed the evidence that others were bringing to the forefront, and felt no need to reiterate it. What other wagons have I joined without explaining why? Also, please look at Ythan if you want to talk about short posts.

these very intense and meaningful words of yours, you mean? ok. I want you to quit saying that you have currently nothing to say and to explain your reads. After Lelouch died, your contribution to the game is almost null. I would like you to comment on the slots, and say clearly what you think of anyone. Who loons town to you, who looks scummy, and aboove all why.
I don't want to help you to look less scummy, I want to stop your fillerposting, and start doing something that will help us understand if you are really scum.

[lewarcher82]

THEMASTERHAND: I did not have any results for N1, because I missed the deadline to send in my action. I got espeonage guilty N2, and I suspect I was roleblocked N3.

you suspect it? how so? The first time you mentioned this you sounded far more certain about having been blocked...
since you already claimed, I don't see any reason why you shouldnt explain what happened in a more understandable way.

[lewarcher82]

dana, my first quote was a way to asking you for content. I thought it was pretty obvious.

I dunno if I am looking town or not, but I agree with your tmh read. There is something in his late posts that even looks like a surprising townslip to me.

@crazy: for my reads of dana up to the end of day 3, you just need to check my iso. As for your question: I find him scummy for a series of reasons that were pointed out during the game, starting from the beginning of day 2. Players with the same content level, for instance GW, are certainly not giving me super-town vibes, but at least they never stated - during a frantic game phase - that there was nothing worth commenting going on... so yeah, dana is not only scummy for other reasons, he is also posting one-liners in a way that smells like strategy.

PV-EDIT

but thil, it is irrelevant. If you were blocked, this is not related to the name of the player you were going to investigate. Dekes question is legitimate.

[lewarcher82]

but Ythan, your second-to-last post seems to suggest something very different from what you suggested with your

italics

.

[lewarcher82]

@ythan: I am trying to figure out if you are going to backtrack, because I don't understand, given the current situation, how relenting could even be an option. Care for explain, sooner or later?

@thil: mmh, if I were in your position, I would have had 2 or 3 names I would have investigated before tmh. Why him and not hohum, who wanted to lynch the claimed "vt" over the cop? Why him and not dana? Why him and not chk, who was the replacement of Lucresia - day 1 hammerer - and the one who started the case on you to save pine?

[lewarcher82]

@ythan: I am trying to figure out if you are going to backtrack, because I don't understand, given the current situation, how relenting could even be an option. Care for explain, sooner or later?

@thil: mmh, if I were in your position, I would have had 2 or 3 names I would have investigated before tmh. Why him and not hohum,

who wanted to lynch the claimed "vt" over the cop

? Why him and not dana? Why him and not chk, who was the replacement of Lucresia - day 1 hammerer - and the one who started the case on you to save pine?

huh, it was supposed to be

who wanted to lynche the claimed cop over the "vt"

...

@Ythan: ok, for the moment, I only say "thanks for the clarification". But fyi, I hd the impression you were saying something more decisive with your hints, and after rereading your iso I still think it was a very legitimate impression to have.

[lewarcher82]

Im Klartext

, then: I had the impression you were cc'ing the claimed cop. If you feel like thil is claiming the same role as you, I don't understand why would you decide to "relent".

I am ESL, so I looked up relent in the dictionary. Is my point clear now?

[lewarcher82]

@Dana: What information will it give us?

What information will what give us?

I

was talking about the wagon, not necessarily his lynch. I'm still not sure if I plan to lynch him.

o.0

Ummm. He's a claimed cop, and you weren't sure whether you wanted to lynch him, but you voted him?

*golfclap*

you know what would make you look a little less scummy? If you quit joining wagons without explaning why.

I don't want to help you to look less scummy

Yeah...

Well I'll tell you this much. You're not looking very town, Ythan's not looking very town, The Master Hand is looking pretty town, and thil's a complete wild card. So I'll

unvote vote: lewarcher

for self-contradiction.

That's not a contradiction. The first post is just a different way of saying thil is scummy because he joins wagons without explaining why.

Since you don't even know who he was talking to, I don't think you really understand the situation. But the nuance you choose to read into that is your decision. I see plain English words that are obviously contradictory.

@patb: he is right, it's dana I am talking about, not thil.

@dana: poor attempt at using (poor) semantics to deny the evident meaning of my words. "you know what would make you look less scummy? posting longer and more!" just means "you are scummy because of your rare and short posts, post longer and more". All in all, your reaction and your countervote is even worse than an omgus. it's an omgus+blatant attempt at misrepping.

mod: V/LA for the next 24 hours. Cannot help it, it's work related.

[lewarcher82]

ok Ythan: your role tells you that thil is not the cop but you are not the cop. This is possible. But please quit insulting people, because this post:

Because you're not a cop. You're trying to use the fact that you don't have a result

prove that you somehow

are the cop.

really sounded like a soft cop cc, and not even so soft. Deal with it.

Now the question is easy, and you need to answer it, not with a confuse reference to previous posting, please. You said you never stated you have absolute proof thil is scum. Which does not mean you haven't. Make a clear statement now: according to your information, from 1 to 10, what's the likelihood of thil being scum? Do you believe that sharing that information you have will put you in an even more dangerous position than you are after your half claim?

Another question: you decided to mention your info today, not yesterday. Why?

[lewarcher82]

"you know what would make you look less scummy? posting longer and more!" just means "you are scummy because of your rare and short posts, post longer and more". All in all, your reaction and your countervote is even worse than an omgus. it's an omgus+blatant attempt at misrepping.

That's just not true. Words mean something. You're literally telling me how to be less scummy. Figured you'd pull out the OMGUS card eventually. Hopefully the others can see that this is retconning, but if they can't, that's not my problem. My vote's staying for now.

you are right dana. I was coaching you because I wanted to help you look less scummy in order to vote you for being less scummy...

*facepalm*

interesting stuff happening about bunny... can you or kdub please direct me to the meta's you r referring to?

[lewarcher82]

Another question: you decided to mention your info today, not yesterday. Why?

This is not a stupid question but it is one I would like you to think about briefly and I think you can sort out easily enough. Consider the difference between info yesterday and info today and if you still want me to answer it for you I will.

I understand now. I was an idiot. I think I have figured out your role... this makes your whole case against thil much more believable...

thil, do you confirm that your night activities so far were the following:

N1 missed deadline
N2 guilty on pine
N3 roleblocked

?

[lewarcher82]

I'm curious what you think but I'll save that for a later time.

yes, it naturally makes sense for you to withhold the details of your information... still, you already made a half-claim by admitting your info is role-related... I think I know what you did on a certain night and what you did not do on another night... but this is all I can deduce from the current data, so it is entirely up to you to decide how much you want to share.

@thil: I asked you another question earlier: why did you pick tmh over a lot of scummier player you could "investigate"?

[lewarcher82]

@thil: investigating tmh for being a hydra is not a very convincing explanation after the events of late day3... if you were cop, you would have prolly investigated hohum, or chk...

unvote; vote: thil

my reasons for doing this don't depend on dana being less scummy (still scummy as hell), but rather on stuff that was hinted to in the last 24 hours. Obviously I cannot reveal my reasons without ythan's consent, and I see that he does not want to share as much as I would... so please keep reading: the rest of this post is relevant.

@ythan: as for your question, I am not sure how to answer.... if you mean that a town/scum read on someone else should be a deductive consequence of the reconstruction of night actions, then no (I prolly am not that smart). If you think that thil being scum for the reasons implied by your information would point to someone else being town/scum then perhaps.

Now, let me comment on the current situation. Apparently, you are missing some perspective, and tend to forget that what is evident to you is not half as evident to people who see your play from outside, so you should probably quit calling people narrowminded. If you post double enter, italic "are the cop", it is quite natural to assume you are softclaiming cop. Thanks god we managed to get out of that stupid empasse, but now your result was that even some very pro-town players seem to be confused and unable to analyse the current situation.

As a consequence, I see that people seem to want you to share your info, which, if I am correct, is impossible to do without revealing your role.

Here is my suggestion: I could out what I think, without you saying yes or no, and everyone will then be able consider the likelihood of thil being scum. Let me know if you agree to this plan.

[lewarcher82]

did you even read the thread, thil? did you even read my last posts? or you just skim looking for the parts in bold?

[lewarcher82]

mod: we really need to get votecounts more than once in 4 pages... thx

Also: did you find a replacement for mb53? I hereby ask for a deadline extension proportional to the time we are playing without his replacement

Ythan, have I to assume the answer to my suggestion is no?

I'm trying my best here, but it's really hard to want to post a lot of content when people try to tell me I'm scummy for what I'm posting and yet I'm not giving them anything to work with and THAT'S why I'm scummy. My case on lew wasn't good, and I admit that. I'll try to get something better and I hope I don't end up regretting it.

@dana: AtE. Not even a very good one. Earlier in game you said there was nothing worth commenting - and we were in an extremely intense phase of game. Now you claimed to be prevented from contributing due to... what? The pressure? Meh... I am going to read your meta, sir. I am going to check out if you normall react this way under pressure.

[lewarcher82]

Lewarcher, what do you think now, as of Ythan's claims? Do they match up with your thoughts?

no they do not. What I expected him to claim would have made a way more compelling case against thil.

In fact:

unvote

I now need to explain my behavious, as my reconstruction was evidently wrong.

Data:
(1) Ythan opposed thil on day 3, but he didn't refer to his role-related information.
(2) thil's guilty flips scum.
(3) thil claims RB'd on N3.
(4) at this point, Ythan decides to refer to his role-related info.
(5) asked for clarifications, Ythan states he is no cop
(6) Ythan says that new events on day 4 made him decide to refer to his role-related info.

My hypothesis:
A - Points (1), (4) and (6) made evident that Ythan had two clues. One was already evident to him on day 3, the other one was only evident on day (4).
B - if Ythan knew thil could have not investigated/gotten a guilty on pine, he could have either been (B1) the real cop or (B2) a role that prevented thil from doing what he said or knew he didn't.
C - (5) excluded (B1): he ain't no cop.
D - (B1) would happen if Ythan were: (D1) a roleblocker who blocked Ythan on day 3, (D2) a tracker who followed Ythan on night 2, (D3) a watcher who watched pine on night 2.
E - the only new event of day 4 is thil claiming blocked (3), and I thought this would have been the trigger for Ythan to reveal he had role-related info.

I therefore thought that Ythan was going to claim town RB, that he was on thil on night 2 and that he was NOT on thil no night 3. If this were Ythan's claim, the case on thil would have been really compelling.

However, my "deductions" now turn out to be wrong. And I fail to see the reason why doctor Ythan moving his nightsave from RC to thil would imply thil being scum. Are you implying scum would have a way to know that thil was going to be protected? Of course they did. You cannot attack a claimed cop when there is likely a protective role out there. But how is this related to thil's alignment and role????

I need to understand this situation. I will cast my vote after/depending on:
- Ythan calrifying/not clarifying his train of thoughts.
- dana posting/not posting the content he promised.

[lewarcher82]

I feel frustrated for the epic fail of my theory, but since Dekes mentioned balance, a little setup analysis would tell me that probably the killing factions are two, and we probably have a vig (and this should be the last time we mention this stuff unless new events force us to)... since pine's flip has no name at all, just "mafia", I guess there is one scum team and a serial killer... (sorry, esurio, but I think that your theory of two killings coming from the same player/party is very unlikely, and we have no reason whatsoever to assume the enemies are less numerous than they may be).

that said, if there are both a mafia and a sk, the likelyhood of neither of them hitting the voting bloc after the cop claimed is minimal, therefore the bloc is not to be trusted too much. I have reasons to think that if there is a non-town member in the bloc, it's prolly the sk (deductive reasons, not role-related info, let's make it clear now). However, I want the bloc to keep existing... let me quote L from Death Note: "Even if you were Kira... I could still use your help and keep you close"

I'd also tend to believe Ythan's claim. And I still fail to see any correlation to thil's alignment. I wouldn't be surprised to death if both claims were genuine, though I cannot be sure and will keep my eye on thil.

Dana's further delay is no longer tolerable, especially since his excuse is that he has to do other stuff on this very site. I don't believe it. I think he played defensively and was never worried about reading people, and now he needs time to make up some stuff.

Ythan, please explain the correlation between your role and thil's alignment.

[lewarcher82]

Are you implying scum would have a way to know that thil was going to be protected?

I'll wait for Ythan's explanation, but I doubt it's valid without the use of WIFOM...

still don't understand his whole trust me thing given his claim.

the claim had done nothing to decrease the Dana-scum likelihood or increase the Thil-scum likelihood

Ytahn, I don't see why you would fake such a claim, so I tend to believe you, but make sure your next post answers some of the questions/doubts that have been raised.

[lewarcher82]

@dana: I have posted too much to be a nullread. I would have preferred if you said I was a scumread of yours...

@kdub: the major points of dana's case against you are actually the first 3 or 4. Please make sure you answer each point, espceially: the "either pine or dana" thing, followed by a vote on dana.

@ythan: you need to explain EXACTLYyour train of thoughts. After 48 hourse of questions, you still refuse to do it in cleartext. I see no reason whatsoever for your claim, role and night-action to imply that thil is scum. Is your idea that "since thil was unprotected, he should have died if he were cop"? If so, answer this:

how would scum know that cop was unprotected

? (if you dodge this question, my inclination to believe you will be *really* endangered)

@ythan(2): why is esurio scummy?

[lewarcher82]

I am really pissed at ythan... he made a huge mess with his trust me stuff and the he just writes:

Didn't think through it so well. As I've said, I'm not so into this game.

well man, this is not the damn impression you gave. You looked like someone who is very much into this game, until there was even the tiniest chance of getting thil lynched... The fact that you are unccd gives you some credit, but you cannot just say that you aren't into this game, after all you have done!

Dana: I strongly disagree with many things you are writing. Now that kdub has answered, I can simply agree with him on two major points:
- it is not true that he had no case on GW when he voted him;
- voting last in the bw on scum is regarded as highly scummy, so your statement

following the rest of the town when they finally decided to lynch Pine would be a perfect strategy. Defending, then bussing is a great strategy for scum if they can pull it off.

sounds wrong to me...

@Dekes: you have actually done very little, in the late phase, and this is the reason why I asked Ythan why he foses esurio, not why he foses you (guess what? he didn't answer). On the other hand, you were a solid townread of mine til the death of pine, and you didn't do anything scummy... besides, esurio hasn't done much either... I honestly wonder if the voting bloc makes any sense, but then again, we hardly ever acted as a real bloc, so it does not matter much.

[lewarcher82]

oh god please TMH tell me that there was no breadcrumbs in your wall. Tell me I just imagined I saw one. I don't think I can take one more at this point.

[lewarcher82]

PV-EDIT: the "you" in this post is always TMH

that was not the breadcrumb I thought I had seen. I was thinking something more subtle, but thanks god it looks like I was wrong.

I see you almost asked me a question about why I vote thil... I think I have written a long post clearing what I thought Ythan would have claimed and why in that case his case on thil would have been compelling. Therefore no, I wasn't voting thil for who he investigated. But it sounded like an unlikely choice for a cop in that situation, so it ... in Italy we say "it added gasoline to the fire", if you get the metaphore.

Now, your wall had the power to confuse me. I am not willing to vote esurio. I think she is town. Whenever I forget why, I re-read day 1. Do the same. As for CP, it is a more subtle feeling, but I wouldn't really call him scummy at the moment. I don't see your case on pinky, but he used to be the weakest town read I had when the bloc was formed. Now he sounds townier as Dekes, who is the trickiest member of the bloc: I have played for a while in a game in which he was town, and he was way more active and aggressive than he is now. But really don't see a reason for voting him today. I will have to reconsider the bloc once again later in game, but another night will help us do it.

Dana's last posts I don't like better than his earlier activity. And the early VT claim and the "go on, lynch me, I mean it" card are like nails on the blackboard.

Ythan is somehow weird. I might have overestimated his being uncc'd... first, a real doc would prolly esitate in cc'ing, second other protective roles may be half-cc's who just don't want to risk claiming (say we have a watcher or a jailkeeper)... Moreover he did not provide any reason for his "trust me" stuff, even though he was repeatedly asked to. The way his content is anti-town, messy and sometimes scummy is not very different from the way the made-up cases dana is posting are scummy. In cleartext: I know I said that i tended to believe the claim, but I am not convinced anymore.

I now see three options:

1) lynching Ythan.
2) lynching dana.
3) pulling a shot in the dark and lynch one of your FoS's, hopping we will be lucky and hit a strong scum hidden in the bloc. Risky move.

I ask each member of the voting bloc to clearly state which option they'd prefer; as for TMH, I guess he would pick Ythan, but please answer as well.

For the time being, I don't want to put dana at L-1: if he were town ( ) a scumhammer would be easy and easily justifiable. Therefore I put my vote here:

vote: Ythan

putting him at L-6.

Delayed reactions will count as scummy attempts at slowing down the scumhunting process: we only have 5 days.

[lewarcher82]

@Ythan: ok, a suggestion. Sit in front of a mirror, repeat 50 times the sentence "you were an idiot", then come back and tell me: do you still want to lynch thil?

@the_alleged_voting_bloc: we have 4 days. Please come here, react to TMH's post. React to my post.

[lewarcher82]

Remind me why we can lynch Ythan but not thil.

I have already written what I now think of Ythan, but here is a new formulation of my point of view, which I challenge you to contraddict. Ythan has been on site for two years, you guys will not get me to believe he has possibly thought that his night actions implied thil is scum. I don't buy it.

I simply see no reasons to lynch thil. I don't agree with the cases on him and when I voted him, I was convinced that Ythan was going to claim something very different and much more compelling. I will not support a thil lynch under this circumstances.

@Dekes: your level of contribution is causing me serious concerns, especially if compared with your town meta.

[lewarcher82]

Dekes, we should have about 1 day and 6 hours to deadline. Please do get sober up.

@pinky: and that is the tricky point!!! Ythan's reasonment would only be valid if scum had a way to know whom the doc is protecting. And scum-ythan may have invented the whole story knowing that scum has a way to know (driver, scum tracker, scum watcher), without realising that only scum could know if scum knows. I am sorry for the way I am expressing this concept, but it turned out to be harder writing it in English than thinking it in Italian :-/

[lewarcher82]

Ythan's reasonment would only be valid if scum had a way to know whom the doc is protecting.

Like a failed kill n1?

sorry, I don't understand.

[lewarcher82]

Kind of obvious where the protection went when your target is alive in the morning.

oh I see. So you presume that since doc saved RC on n1, they wouldn't have shot him anymore unless they knew doc was on someone else? Answer these questions:

1) what has this to do with the player you moved your protection to (thil)?
2) how do you know that RC was the victim of scum last night?
3) we evidently have three killing role, all three failed to kill on n1. How do you know that the RC kill you prevented was coming from scum and not from a SK or a VIG or any similar role?
4) or are you assuming that all the 3 roles on n1 tried to kill the player you claim to have protected?
5) if the answer to point 4 is no, then there are other protectve mechanics. You realise that their existence makes your al analysis flawed from the very beginning?

[lewarcher82]

so you think scum has 2 kills and both were blocked on n1... so tell me, are you a double doc? otherwise there must be further protective mechanics, /goto #1440 question 5.

[lewarcher82]

I still don't believe it, GW: hohum was a scummy player who tried to lynch claimed cop over claimed vt. I don't think scum would kill hohum.

Besides, if you *really* ISO'd jmj, you'd notice that only the two people dead last night have energy burns. Smashbro does not. But he was not "slashed" either. So we have someone who slashes, someone who simply kills and scum with energy-weapon? It makes three killing roles again, two of which killed on n3, the third on n1 only... mmmmh

Summary: I don't think this is the case for two reasons:
1) hohum was scummy;
2) your analysis of the death-flavours is uncomplete, and analysing smash's death scene, people still die in 3 different ways, not two, but the overall scenario would make no sense.

P-EDIT: no, I do not think that there are two doctors, I just think there may be more "protective mechanics". I have a different idea about the distributions of deaths. I think someone has nk-immunity, prolly a SK, and I think one of the killing roles is town-aligned and may have decided not to shoot all nights. A targeted SK with nk immunity is the best and more economic explanation for several killing parties and relatively few night deaths.

[lewarcher82]

Mod, could you update the first post to include kill flavor? You included it with the death scenes.

Seconded.

[lewarcher82]

also prodded (????)

Also prodded! \o/

Not posting tonight. Will tomorrow. Going to bed soon.

esurio: this is the last damn day before deadline! What the hell!

I am perfectly happy with my vote on Ythan. He appears to be grasping at straws and pretending he had pro-town reasons to what he did, but he most evidently has none. If he were doc, he would have considered the options, and wondered about the reasons of the events. He also did not ISO jmj and posted inaccurate references to the death flavour. Moreover, I am still under the impression that his case on thil can be analysed as a scumslip, since it would make sense in a context in which scum had some specific informative role. I still sponsor and promote a wagon on him, and the offer (and my vote) remain(s) valid til before deadline. If necessary to avoid a no-lynch, I will then move my vote to Dana.

I also insist in considering unlikely for scum to kill hohum, because he was scummy, and I notie that no one seems to be willing to challenge this point. As Ythan's survival is pretty much based on the implications of a 2-scumkills reconstruction, it is crucial to see it through, and still he is as hasty in ignoring this point as he was in posting an aproximate and flawed analysis of the death flavors.

Finally, at this point I am highly suspicious of the members of the voting bloc. A mass of pro-town players do not waste time lurking while waiting for deadlines to expire. I invite whoever has investigative night-actions not to assume that an investigation on a voting-bloc member would be wasted.

[lewarcher82]

@dekes/patb: (they are pretty much acting like a tandem, as far as I see): I missed the question, thanks for pointing it out. Actually, if you ISO me you will see that I never believed the cases on thil, and I still do not. One can accuse him of posting very little content, but now that ythan's case on him revealed to be the creation of a mentally ill player, I defnitely think that:
1) thil's play is consistent with that of an unexperienced player who - being a PR - is unable to scumhunt and relies too much on mechanics;
2) being unexperienced, there is no way he would invent such a crazy claim;
3) pine did not overreact to the report, and he did it on purpose, to have people think thil was scum

PaTB's case on thil is generally based on thil's inability to post content and to handle questions. Imo he is a noob cop who found a guilty and he is being tunneled.

Also: I insist for the third time: hohum being a scum victim is unlikely, I oppose and contest the idea of assuming that there are only two killing parties: it is poorly motivated and, if there is a sk, it would help him a lot if we believe there is no sk. So it strategically stupid to start from that assumption. One of the players who insist on this theory is prolly a killing third party.

To conclude this post, I include an

unofficial vc

danakillsu - 4 - Kdub, GhostWriter, Ythan, Thil - (L-3)
Kdub - 1 - danakillsu - (L-6)
thil13 - 4 - Pinky and the Brain, Crazypianist1116, esuriospiritus, Dekes - (L-3)
Ythan - 3 - The Master Hand, lewarcher82, Bunnylover - (L-4)

Ironically Thil and Ythan are voting the same player. Kdub, are you really convinced both claimed PR are genuine and the whole war was about both being playing a very poor game? I don't, and I insist on the fact that Ythan's case on thil contains an unclear but pretty evident scumslip.

We have three viable wagons, not two. Please open your eyes and lynch Ythan already.

[lewarcher82]

mod: could you start posting the deadline in the form month/day/hour, please? I find your countdowns rather confusing

[lewarcher82]

yes it is. yes t does. therefore assuming that both deaths come from the same party is not motivated. this makes my question to the mode superfluous, but I ask it anyway.

mod: is there any reason why you ignore our request of updating the flavour in smashbro's death? shall we assume that there is no flavour to be added?

[lewarcher82]

yes it is. yes t does. therefore assuming that both deaths come from the same party is not motivated. this makes my question to the mode superfluous, but I ask it anyway.

mod: is there any reason why you ignore our request of updating the flavour in smashbro's death? shall we assume that there is no flavour to be added?

What do you mean? I put SSBF's kill flavor in the death scene, and in the first post.

oh, ok, I looked at the post in which he died, not at post 1... in ISO 34 you did not update it

allright, I like TMH's last post. I am not yet convinced that dana is town, because I have seen and done this I'm town lynch me gambit before, but what strikes me funny is that both thil and ythan are voting him... and I am convinced ythan is scum, while half the world seems to be convinced that thil is... the likelihood of a bus in the present condition is not neglectable, but it is not big either...

ythan is scum. ythan slipped in assuming a correlation between night actions that town players cannot see. ythan is not even defending. a doc who claimed for no reason would feel terribly, and would at least try to scumhunt and to avoid being lynched, to lynch another scum, to stay active one more night... is this what he is doing? He just posts one-liners discussing minor details... he wasn't even able to suggest an original case... after his plan to get thil lynched (hopefully) failed, all he could do was basically quitting posting content and moving the vote to a safe wagon.

you know what he is currently thinking? He hopes that you lynch the cop, and he is not on the wagon, so that he will be able to wifom his way out of day5 once we wake up and he is still alive tomorrow.

[lewarcher82]

@kdub: I think that there may be a reason why ythan's reconstruction made sense to him: probably, he know that scum has a role that prevents or redirects night actions. But I have no complete reconstruction. Just the strong feeling of a subtle scumslip.

As for claiming doc: well, I think scum knows that there is no doc (for instance, when I joined frenzy mafia, I was scum and mod gave us roles we could safely claim). If there is no doc, and town has other protective mechanics (jk, rb, watcher or similar stuff), claiming doc would be the best way for him to be able to talk himself out of the shit once thil flipped cop. Since I am really convinced ythan is scum playing scummy for scum reasons due to a scum win condition, I conclude that most likely we have no doc. Probably a rb or a jk + a now claimed joat with a one shot huge protective power.

Besides, do not forget that ythan was trying to get thil lynched without claiming doc. He was kinda forced to claim.

I think you should ask yourself: why is Ythan voting dana and not thil now? This is a far more interesting question.

@dekes: I meditated about your claim. There are two questions I'd like to ask you, the first is easy, but I am not sure if it is a good idea to ask the second...
1) why did you decide to use a strong massblock ability - which in endgame transforms mylo into an ML - on night 1? Blocking kills on night 1 is borderline anti-town, because it prevents town from getting information... I'd have definitely waited a little longer to use it. Can you explain?
2) mmmh... let me put it this way. There has been a lot of flavour speculation lately, and part of it was used as a way to support ythan's genuinity. Do you have any comments about it?

[lewarcher82]

mmh... the player I was sure was scum and the player I trusted less in the voting bloc were tonight's victims.

I have to reconsider the situation.

Esurio: no. You don't vote the claimed cop this way... Ythan's flip does not automatically make thil look worse. You should at least wait for his report, if any.

kdub: massnameclaims hardly ever work. I am sure scum has good fakenames like in almost any themed game I have seen. It does no good, it does no harm... do you think we may use one?

P-EDIT: this is by no means a bad choice, TMH, I will articulate more later.

[lewarcher82]

PART 1: setup speculation

so, I will now elaborate a little about an expired insitution called the voting bloc.

No one in it was killed until the last night. Whoever killed Dekes also killed hohum & SSBF.

I started from the assumption that hohum was scummy, and that it could have been a vig- or viglike-kill. I have now to consider the problem from a different perspective.

We have 3 killing parties. One of them only killed on night 3. It is the party who "slashes". They slashed Wario (lucresia-lou). That lucresia was scummy is out of question. The way she hammered and her lurkiness were reasons enough for a pro-town killing role to take care of her.

Since the party that only killed once killed lucresia, and since it is unlikely for an anti-town killing party to be 1-shot, I will now assume that the other parties, which I will call the hohum-Dekes-SSBF-killer and the RC-Ythan-killer are the actual anti-town ones. One is obviously scum, the other one likely a serial killer.

I will concentrate on the hohum-Dekes-SSBF-killer... killing SSBF has no big meaning... personally, I think the big issue with him was that he was very town. Probably townier than several people in the bloc. Therefore, he was to be eliminated. Killing Dekes was important to give the bloc some further credit and to eliminate a joat who might have head further surprises. But killing hohum was *weird*, because he was scummy. There is only one player alive whom hohum suspected, this player is esurio.

Now, the very conclusion I would reach analysing the sequence is that there is someone hidden in the former voting bloc, which is now expired or at least will continue without me. I don't see significant scumtells coming from pinky. He made a real case against thil, with original points, and seems to be pushing it genuinely. Is it esurio, who got rid of hohum, or is it crazypianist, who wanted to make esurio look bad?

PART 2: the scummy ones

It is very hard to say who is scummier, inside and outside the former voting bloc. I'd say that my reads on the bloc, town-to-scum, are: pinky > esurio > weird.

However, I will now comment on 3 players I would now concentrate on: two belonged to the bloc, one did not.

esurio: her insistence in pushing cases on thil is surprising, especially because she hardly provided any original content about the spot. More than this? naaa

crazypianist/weird: looking at his ISO, it strikes me how he always was very cautious, always was on the right wagon in order to appear town, and hardly ever posted original content. His replacement, on the other hand, jumps in the game, skims the thread (you cannot have read 60 pages in one day) and does the easiest move ever: he votes thil. He doesn't even need to wait for thil's report. Was thil really blocked? Did he already know it?

Kdub: I am surprised at his TMH vote. TMH at the moment is the strongest townread I have... his motivation sounds forced and unconvincing. And crazy is preparing the filed for tunneling TMH later, in case thil's lynch won't go through. I smell a connection rather than a coincidence. And this fact brings me to my decision.

vote weirdalexv

[lewarcher82]

his motivation sounds forced and unconvincing.

-A

not yours, kdub's motivation to vote you.

massclaim: I don't think we are in any mylo/lylo situation, which would justify such a drastic move. We are ten alive, to have a mylo, we need to have 4 alive mafias, which is unlikely (would make 6 of them with 20 players)... more likely there are two or three of them left... after bunny's claim, I have nothing against a massNAMEclaim (though I don't see how it would help), but if you want a massclaim with roles, please explain me the advantages of it.

[lewarcher82]

oh god other breadcrumbs... uhm...

Too many event, presented in a way too chaotic way. I need to think.

I have made a case on weird and that is where my votes remains until: (a) gw posts his theory and (b) weird reacts.

besides: kdub was really hasty to put his vote on thil after all his support to the thiltown party. How cme? Huh wait: lew is voting weird and suggesting that they may be scumbuddies.

[lewarcher82]

GUYS, WE HAVE A TON MORE SCUM TO TAKE DOWN, AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT I'M THINKING.

a TON more than what??? We can have 1, 2, or 3 --> ML, if we have 4 we are on mylo. 5 would be game over.

Think better next time.

Yes, at first glance either thil or pinky are lying... which worries me a lot because:
- why would a scum-pinky post this bullshit? It could only harm him;
- stll, I don't think thil is scum.

So I have no idea what is happening, but this "fork" implies to pick between two players I don't want to lynch. TMH, what do you think?

ergo: let's move back to you, weird... you pushed submit and half your post went lost? Or did you just have to make up some stuff cause your case on thil was insufficient? I know better than thinking long walls=town, boy. Yes, post your wagon analysis. You may convince me you are not mafia. In which case you are probably the second anti-town killing party (sk?) which I strongly believe was hidden in the voting bloc for reasons that are entirely contained in this thread.

@thil: who do you think is scum? Make a clear statement.

[lewarcher82]

Well GW, I see no reasons not to nameclaim, assuming you have a good reason to ask me to do it. Still, I have never supported the idea of a mass roleclaim. Therefore, unless you need it for completing your theory, I will not name my role.

My name is T.A.C. Although I didn't play the kirby games, I looked up some stuff on the wiki and apparently he is a minor enemy. Like Tragedy/Waddle Doo, surprisingly I am town.

I think at this point we can go on with a popcorn nameclaim: too many people already claimed. My next call is obviously weirdalexv.

[lewarcher82]

Meaning your theory comes at the end of the whole process? mmmmmh

[lewarcher82]

I am not a VT and never said I were. At this point, claiming is the best course. I am a 1-shot flavour-cop. I tried to use my ability n1 on Ythan. It didn't work, and I decided to save it for a better occasion. I used my ability last night, visited thil and got a report. Namely, I have found a crystal ball. It is a crappy hint. Merlon has a crystal ball, but several Mario villains have crystal balls, too.

However, I can confirm GW's role. Question: if you are a

town

tracker, how come you never targeted thil to confirm his claimed "blocked investigations"? Targeting me and Dekes sounds

a lot

like looking for town pr's...

[lewarcher82]

I didn't trust that vote bloc. And I figured it was only a matter of time before Thil is lynched anyway, no point wasting a track on that. N1 I targetted DBE/Bunny. My flavor is that I've spent so many years following after my brother that I've gotten good at following people.

since someone is definitely going to ask: my flavour mentions T.A.C. being a thief. Still, no reference is ever made to me actually stealing items or skills. I have no idea if thil received a notification about my visit, so I assume he still has his ability after my visit.

@mod: actually, Demon Hybrid's last post was on June the 2nd... I guess he should be pretty close to prod-range.

[lewarcher82]

lew, why didn't you use your ability on N2?

this is the first time I play with a 1shot town ability (I once was a JOAT-SK). At first, I assumed the best course was using my skill immediately, on someone who did not strike me as convincingly town, but not on someone who was among the biggest suspects of day1. Once my action did not go through, I reconsidered the strategy and decided to wait until my ability would have been able to confirm a claim. So the best question is not why I didnt use my ability n2, but rather why I did not use in N3: I did not because at that point I was almost convinced of thil's claim, and I was afraid I would have wasted it if used it on someone who was gonna die the very same night. Then thil strated surviving his claim, and I decided to go for it.

@thil(1): role=tracker/not-tracker, alignment=town/scum, flavour=name. This is the standard terminology. When I said I could confirm his role, I meant he does know when I visited whom, so heis a tracker. I cannot confirm that he is town, and this is why I asked him about his picks.

@thil(2): second time I ask you this: who is scum and who is not? We are on day5: give us some reads.

@thil(3): without quoting, is there anything in your role PM that makes you think my report is genuine?

@GW(1): apart from the fact that your "case" on me is based on a VT claim I never made, can you explain me why town-T.A.C. should be a VT but scum-T.A.C. can be a scum PR?

@GW(2): do you realise that your claimed reports are extremely convenient? You only provide a case against me, but all of your other reports are on dead players, except n2, in which you - like thil on n1 - missed the deadline? If you are a scum tracker, you will be able to say "meh, I was wrong" when I flip, and then you will prolly post a no visit report on a scum partner of yours tomorrow. Or you will claim roleblocked, since, after my death, no scum roleblocker would have flipped :-/

answers to weirdalexv come after work.

[lewarcher82]

Bunny, is there any particular reason you're ignoring that there's a 1 v 1 between thil and PatB right now?

Thil continues to avoid the subject of two claimed roleblocks as well.

I wish to add that I cannot believe we have 1-shot flav cop+cop+tracker+1/2sensor+doc+joat(with universal block). Sounds too much. But still, I cannot but agree with pinky that in this situation the double nightkill is something we cannot afford. We mentioned the possibility of cp/weird being the SK, esurio added a meta-related argument. Now his nameclaim is not unconsistent with this possibility.

question to everybody: we have two distinct killing flavours that occurred more than 1 night, one is certainly scum, the other prolly a sk. Which one do you think is scum and which one do you think is the sk and why?

@bunny: I have noticed your vote. But I will comment on it after my question has been answered.

@weird: I prefer to wait for you to answer this before going on with a case on you. Your answer is of the utmost interest.

[lewarcher82]

attention, kdub: weirdalexv is confusing the situation. He says that hohum and smashbro are killed by two different parties, but flavour is the same. How is that possible?

I want to hear esurio's and bunny's thoughts on this point: who incinerates and who does not?

@everyone: I am not crazy, I have something in my mind.

[lewarcher82]

actually, GW, I wouldn't mind asking you the same question I asked to esurio and bunny.

[lewarcher82]

Huh, I may be slow tonight, but how do we know we don't have a vig? I am asking this to bunny and weird. This question is very relevant... I wish I used my power on someone else, but I had no idea someone would have claimed the name of a bounty killer... I wonder what I would have found visiting him instead of thil.

[lewarcher82]

if there were two scum teams, there may be two RBs... this is a brainfucker. I hope this is not the case and will proceed with the scum+sk hypothesis, at least for the time being.

@everyone: I think esurio is right about dekes. Dekes mentioned the actions he took at night. Why would he not mention the JOAT vigging of a scum player? It would have confirmed his alignment or forced some scum to fake a cc. I first thought that weirdalexv/cp' hyper-cautious game is likely the game of a SK. I then realised that on night two one of the killign party, likely the mafia or one mafia, did not kill, which gives us 3 options: (1) they hit the protected player, (2) they hit the same player as the other killing party, (3) they hit a night immune SK. If option 3 were correct (about 1/3 chance, but Ythan claimed protecting RC, who was not a likely target for mafia after day 2, imo), I think that it is likely they were trying to attack the voting bloc, and there are two members who did not claim their role, esurio and CP/weirdalexv. This is the reason why I said there was a chance the Sk was hiding in the block. Finally, weirdalexv claims the name of a bounty killer. Still, he surprisingly misses the evidence about who killed whom, probably pretending not to see the identity of flavour. And even more surprisingly, he states that there is no vig, while his name would very much suggest a killing party. I can hardly imagine a character name that is likelier to be a sk than Aran Samus; and I wonder: are you Aran Samus or are you Dark Samus, and Aran Samus is your good doppelganger and perfect fakeclaim?

Please, let's make a weirdalexv wagon grow and at least get an answer to these points. Weirdalexv is in my opinion the likliest SK we have (I already mentioned him jumping in, rereading very quickly, posting a superficial catch up and casting an easy vote), and he also is on the sensor(?)'s list... should he flip town, which I consider highly unlikely, I will have a hard time believing that 3 players among thil, esurio, GW and DH are scum, so we will be able to critically address wagon analysis, with better odds of success than we have today.

This is my suggestion, and it also depends on the fact that I still have a townread of pinky (why the hell would he come out with this claim out of nowhere? He didn't have to, no one asked him...) and I still believe thil's claim. So I think my suggestion represents the best course right now. Discuss.

[lewarcher82]

unfortunately, kdub (and GW: PV-EDIT), if the sensor is telling the truth (for either possible reason), we have 3 scum left. And since I believe the mafia+sk scenario, I know that if we lynch a townie we will be 9 at twilight, sk kills scum kills and it makes 7 tomorrow, and unless crossfire, we will have 3 vs 3 vs 1, which means if sk can joint with scum we are screwed. This is the reason why I am insisting with looking for the sk today, and I posted the reasons why I think it is very likely CP/weirdalexv. At least let's insist on him answering my points.

[lewarcher82]

I stand by my reads, people. The Dark Samus stuff was just speculation. So, if you don't see the point, I will have to spell it out loud. If you check the flips, although some prs are minor charachters, every charachter who is the hero of a game is a PR.

Samus is the hero of a game.

Samus is a bounty killer.

Someone shot a scum member.

Still, Samus says: we have no vig.

Options:
Samus being VT: impossible.
Samus being protective role: then why did doc die?
Samus being an informative role: why not claim after 4 info-roles did?
Samus being a vig: BEEP: samus said there is none.

ergo: he is either sk or scum pr. His play looks lile a sk play to me.

(@kdub: joint win was an option is the last large themed game I played as a sk. Still, even if it is not, what are the odds of town winning with a 3vs3vs1 situation on lylo?)

[lewarcher82]

the steganographic softclaim in #1616. Not subtle, not convincing, not confirmable and above all not necessary..

B

ecause

U

ltimately

L

imericks

L

ooking

S

ubtle

H

ave

I

mplicit

T

rouble.

If you are not the SK, who is it? Sk killing hohum may point to different leads. Hohum was fosing TMH and esurio. Do you think it is one of these two players?

@kdub: my problem remains. I think both thil and patb are town. I have no idea how a double block could occur, tho... I am trying to avoid a situation in which we lynch one of them today, he flips town cop/sensor, and tomorrow everyone will acritically jump on the other one, potentially losing the game.

as far as I see, we have 3 players who are convinced the 1 vs 1 is compelling: GW, bunny, kdub. Two players, I and TMH, are not. It is about time for the remaining players to take a clear position about this.

@thil: why arent you voting patb?
@patb: why arent you voting thil?
@kdub: why arent you voting at all?

[lewarcher82]

I thought I already explained. PatB's claim makes more sense from a town perspective.

Sensor claim > Cop claim?

I think he means: context of the sensor claim > context of the cop claim

thils claimed under a wagon, patb had no reasons to claim if he weren't sensor...

[lewarcher82]

sorry for the double post:

@weirdalexv: caps and bold don't make arguments more compelling tha they are. I still smell shit in this 1 vs 1 stuff.

And kdub: I don't value reads over a blocked-cc in a mini, and of course not in an open. But in a large themed, the mechanics of which are unknown to me, sometimes I do, whenever the reads are strong enough.

[lewarcher82]

I thought I already explained. PatB's claim makes more sense from a town perspective.

Sensor claim > Cop claim?

lew pretty much nailed it. PatB's claim and the timing of it makes much more sense from a town motivation.

And kdub: I don't value reads over a blocked-cc in a mini, and of course not in an open. But in a large themed, the mechanics of which are unknown to me, sometimes I do, whenever the reads are strong enough.

What difference does the size of the game make, unless you are speculating the existence of two scum roleblockers (very rare)?

I am not saying I know the explanation... still, if I think about it, there are some ways a double block could occur. For instance a scum joat, or perhaps simply someone who returns a no report to cop: both generally unlikely, but liklier to happen in a large themed... look, I don't know, I just do not feel like thil or patb are scum... still, there is something that struck me funny in one sentence I have read:

patb, your answer to my question implies you think thil is scum but you are not voting him????

[lewarcher82]

so if thil is scum, you believe I found the ball, if thil is town, you do not????

[lewarcher82]

but then you must think thil could have a ball and be scum? It is possible, of course, but in this case we have to assume the ball is somehow related to his role, don't we? What role can he have as scum involving such a a clue? A scum cop? Unlikely. A scum watcher? Perhaps, but then he would have made things easier by claiming watcher, not cop... I already said that the clue was not really conclusive, but it does sound town-cop-ish to me. And since I believe patb had no reason whatsoever to claim out of nowhere if he were scum, I cannot but stand by my position: I think they are both town.

we need more activity from esurio and tmh.

mod: as usual I play the part of the annoying guy and ask for a deadline extension proportional to the time needed to replace DH

[lewarcher82]

yes, that is correct. Unfortunately, my role description is not clear about the kind of flavor I am able to collect. It may just point to the name of the chacacter. if it only refers to the name, it adds nothing to my townread of thil. If it refers to role, or role-related equipment, then it adds teh aformentioned arguments in support of a genuine claim.

[lewarcher82]

as I said, the PM is unclear. But if you look up the wiki definition, flavor is not necessarily unrelated to the role. Still, if you prefer, let us use your definition of role cop. Thil claimed Merlon. My clue could support this and Merlon is no villain. There are villains who have crystal balls. The only one I know after googling a little is Birdo. If thil was Birdo, he would have been absolutely brilliant in faking a Merlon claim and absolutely lucky that the clue I found was actually the ball. How could he even imagine that? Likelyhood: very low.

[lewarcher82]

...unless, of course, you assume I am scum partner of thil. Which kinda contraddicts your axioms and your conclusions...

[lewarcher82]

of course. I am sure scum have fakeclaims. still, you are assuming a fakeclaim designed to neutralise my investigation... so not only I have a crappy power and it is one shot, but scum was also given fakeclaims that completely neutralize my ability?

[lewarcher82]

just use blue instead *sigh*

[lewarcher82]

^I PMed the mod, Kdub asked me to:

Alex: can you ask the mod what night you lost your one-shot BP?

OK, I'll do that right now.

Anyway, working on the BWA.

@Mod: is it considered impersonating you if I use green to indicate town players in my Bandwagon Analysis?

wait a sec, Pinky has a point here! You already knew you were zero-suit before "asking the mod" but you didn't know when you lost your suit???? How is that possible?

[lewarcher82]

He told me I was Zero Suit but he never said what night I was shot. What makes that impossible?

just use blue instead *sigh*

Except then I'll have to go back and change the colors on the entire thing >_>

well, this makes it less compelling, assuming I want to believe (1) that jmj provides insufficient info to replacements and (2) that he tell you "you were shot" and you don't ask "when?"...

which I do not.

seriously, more votes please.

[lewarcher82]

I haven't been posting because I don't really have anything to say. I've already said my piece -- I think Thil is scum,

have

thought Thil is scum, and want to see him dead over anyone else outside that 1v1. Barring that, someone from the Tragedy wagon needs to get lynched and I hope it's at least the SK---

Actually, I just had a thought. What if

Thil's

the SK? Is that impossible? It would certainly explain why both Chkflip and Espeonage/Pine were kinda going after him ... I think it was D3, too lazy to check back... because maybe he

wasn't

one of them. And that was the source of a lot of my hesitation regarding Thil. Is it possible he just got lucky with calling Pine-scum and is trying to ride that, as SK, to endgame? Or is there something I'm missing that says he can't be an SK?

if we assumed that my clue only points to the name, we should look for some nintendo character who has/uses it, and who has a flavour justification for being a sk. I find none.

On the other hand, he could be. Or you could be. Or TMH, or mb53/DH/Looker... unlikely to be any other: claimers, except thil, didn't play and didn't claim like a SK would.

[lewarcher82]

I will have Limited Access for the next week.

Family is visiting and I only see them once a year so I will be spending a bunch of time with them.

Responses and stuff later, haven't read the rest of the thread and really don't have time to.

Prepared to vote wierdalexv but can we decide who we want on the wagon? Like maybe we could have PatB on it and thil13 off.

I am afraid I don't understand what you are talking about...

[lewarcher82]

Wish we had that Sensor role tonight. I'm pretty sure there's scum on wierdalex's wagon.

This is almost certain. Unless by some fluke alex is actually mafia, it's crazy to me that we have a 1v1 and the lynch with the most support is someone else.

If alex flips town, I highly suggest that the SK kill thil. The SK could be in a very bad spot if they do not kill scum tonight.

this is prolly something a sk would do, fyour analysis is correct. Except, it is unlikely to happen, because I am still convinced that weirdalexv will flip scum, prolly sk.

assuming, of course, that sk cannot joint with scum, in which case he may prefer: 6 vs 3 vs 1 --> 5 vs 3 vs 1 --> 3 vs 3 vs 1 to 6 vs 3 vs 1 --> 5 vs 3 vs 1 --> 4 vs 2 vs 1

I will have to think about the meaning of your post... would work both ways: if you are town and think thil is scum, but also if you are scum and thil is town...

lew's official statement: we are 3 days from deadline, and a wagon on someone who ain't thil or weirdalexv is impossible to make. I believe thil's claim and I think patb is town (call me a fool if you want), while weirdalexv and his predecessor are sk-ish scummy, they played it safe beyond the limits of scumminess and weird's role claim is bullshit, while his name is the closest thing to a sk flavour I can imagine when thinking to what I know about the Nintendo world.

I support lynching him. In fact, I fully support a hammer, but I understand that he is on LA and he should be granted the chance of posting one last time.

[lewarcher82]

esurio, dont lie. esurio and looker are the only people left on the tragedy wagon (other than patB himself).That means lynching on the wagon will prove/disprove patB's claim.

Either strategy, town has this, but, quite frankly, I never was a fan of the 1v1 thing because we had town reads on both patb and thil. That hasn't changed.

In other words, yeah, sure we can kill PatB directly, but don't forget that he helped us find the SK with his "there are three scum on this wagon" thing. Both the NK's were people on that wagon. Someone is trying to screw Patb over.

No, TMH, in case you miss such a simple implication

, I will make it clear for you.

Esurio's claim makes PatB automatically scum.

If PatB=sensor, then esurio, looker= scum, scum. But if esurio=scum, who vigged chk and thil?

It is a contraddiction, and it changes things entirely. I also used to defend my townread of PatB, but this is more than a case. It is a direct implication.

So, unless you, or someone else who has not claimed yet, are going to claim the vig-kills, my vote will move to PatB.

as easy as this.

[lewarcher82]

TMH: man after esurio's claim opposing patb's lynch is ridiculous. If esurio aint no vig, who is? I take it you are not, right? Who's missing? kdub? looker?

this is not about the 1 vs 1 or other half-compelling cases that could be explained easily with a scum joat or stuff like that. This is a table of truth. Extremely easy, as far as I see.

@PatB: is it possible that you are sensor and esurio AND looker are not both scum? Answer!

[lewarcher82]

• First of all, let me apologize in lieu of wierdalexv's last post two hours after my hammer.
  
• Secondly, who is Hoppster? And why would scum have two roleblockers?
  
• I favor esuriospiritus's point regarding the 1v1 over The Master Hand's proposed method of confirming PatB's role seeing as there's two of us and one of him. Have to look back at the Tragedy wagon and PatB's assertion but PatB's lynch would confirm two roles as opposed to lynching either of us and confirming one.
  
• RE:The Master Hand's defense of PatB:
  • I like how you told esurio "don't lie" as if that would do anything.
  • I don't like the speedy assumption that someone's trying to screw PatB over when we have no evidence to support that.
  
  
• Either way, I have a shitload of reading to do before I place a vote.

I asked you a very precise question: are you cc'ing esurio's vig claim? You should be able to answer now. If no one is ccing, PatB is scum.

[lewarcher82]

The fact that no quickhammer is taking place is further evidence, since we are in possible-lylo. 8 hours have passed since my last post, no defense from PatB. This is more than enough.

@whoever-proposed-a-massclaim: no. not today. Let scum be tortured by the doubt: "is esurio really 2-shot?" further claims and further discussion will only help scum plan the night.

In fact, I am not against cutting the day short.

[lewarcher82]

mafia-vig is hilarious. Really. Especially if we compare the jumpy cluelessness of this last post of yours with the generally clever posts you used to do til day 5.
Without esurio's claim I would still think you were town.

vote: PatB

L-1.

[lewarcher82]

What the hell? Killing Bunny makes no sense. Something is up here.

quite so. And may mean two things, either wifom or an attempt at framing someone. Two options are quite clear in my mind but I will only out them after:

I've been tossing around a theory in my head, but I think me, TMH, and Looker should claim. I suggest esurio pick which one of us claims first, and we popcorn it from there?

... the massclaim is complete.

Also: likelihood of lylo is high enough for me to suggest everyone not to cast early votes this day. If it is in fact lylo, a townie voting a townie may result in a quick game over. Sorry for stating the obvious... after a recent experience I prefere to do it.

[lewarcher82]

pick next please

[lewarcher82]

I am Daisy, Vanilla Townie.

And what do you mean as far as killing Bunny making no sense?

It makes no sense for two reasons:
1) esurio is confirmed town, Bunny was not.
2) Bunny had claimed VT while the rest of us hadn't claimed yet.
If you had asked me during night which player would be the least likely nightkill, it definitely would have been Bunny (even leaving aside the possibility that he was scum). The only thing I can think of is that the scum might have suspected BL was playing a gambit and lying about being a VT.

Anyway, here's what the setup might be:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 1-shot flavor cop, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, goon
SK: One-shot BP

If you ask me, that setup seems town-favored. Town has 3 investigative roles (4 if Dekes had one) and a doc.

why are you implying 4 scum only? This is a fallacy. Is it done on purpose? Later in your post you do not.

In terms of scumminess, TMH is definitely at the top of the list for me. His reaction to dana's lynch looked fake, and he tried to defend PatB yesterday until it was clear that nobody else was siding with him. Based on player reads alone, he is my top choice for scum and it's not really close.

However, one thing that bothered me was how strongly certain people were pushing for weirdalexv's lynch on D5, in spite of the 1v1. Obviously scum would want this, because they wanted to 1v1 to extend to the next day if possible, when they could then swing a thil lynch, which would have been quite easy. What they didn't expect, however, was that thil would get vigged that night. Take a look at D5, and you see that PatB (scum), TMH, and lew were strongly pushing for alex's lynch. Why? I didn't find the case on alex particularly convincing, but even if you did, was it strong enough to convince you to put off a 1v1?

Also, remember this post, where lew pegs alex's role. Coincidence?

No, I am just brilliant like that.

Also, remember GW tracked lew to thil on the night thil claimed to have been roleblocked.

Also, lew's claimed role seems out of place when you look at the potential setup I posted above. One-shot flavor-cop when town already has a full cop and tracker? Why make a weaker role one-shot while having an unlimited role that is stronger (cop)? I might be able to buy a one-shot cop + full flavor-cop in the setup, but the opposite? And lew's claim of finding a crystal ball on thil still doesn't sit well with me. Given that scum safeclaims appear to be related flavor-wise to their actual role (Dark Samus - Samus, AU 313 - AU 242), that role can't possibly catch scum unless they deviate from their safeclaims.

how do you know that scum had claims that were related to their real flavour? You are quoting two particular cases that allow it to happen. May I know what you imagine pine's and chk's fake claims to be?

So here's my theory. I propose that lew is the mafia roleblocker, and TMH is a mafia role cop. Balance-wise, it makes the setup look like this:
Town: Doc, cop, JoaT, tracker, 2-shot vig, 9x VT
Mafia: Doc, encryptor, roleblocker, role cop, goon
SK: One-shot BP

fallacy explained. That there are 5 scum makes it balanced, not that you added cop. You compare this to a 4-scum theory to make it look solid.

That looks more balanced to me. Also, it explains why PatB, lew, and TMH were so adamant about lynching alex on D5 instead of thil: because they had investigated alex on an earlier night and found that he was the SK, so they wanted to eliminate him since he was likely their biggest threat at the time. That, plus the fact that they didn't want to resolve the 1v1 yet, otherwise PatB would have been revealed as scum. Thanks to esurio's shot, that happened anyway. It also explains how lew was able to call alex's role name as Dark Samus, even though we didn't know yet that the scum safeclaims were closely tied to their actual role names.

we would be idiots, if we, as a scum team, grouped up in such an evident way to push a mislynch.

I am still thinking about exactly who to lynch today. I admit that I have basically no read on Looker due to the replacement history of that player slot and his play so far. If my theory is wrong and there is only one scum left, we still have tomorrow so it probably doesn't matter. If I am right that there are two scum left but it is not TMH and lew, then what is a less likely scumteam: TMH+Looker or lew+Looker?

you are not taking into consideration the option of two scum, not being those whom you suspect. Imprudent move on lylo.

Now comes my theory, kdub.

My theory is that whoever killed bunny made it for one precise reason. There are two possible options:
1) Looker is scum --> bunny was FoS'ing him
2) Looker is town --> scum is trying to frame him

If you consider that PatB died insulting two players, bunny and looker, and that one is dead, it is highly likely that scum killed bunny to attract everyones attention on Looker.

Now you come out with a theory that suggests two scum teams: guess what? Looker is in both.

From my POV, esurio is confirmed town. If I am right about it being option 2, Looker is town as well. Then if there are two scum, it makes you and TMH mafia. Your last post reads very well in this direction. Attempt at framing Looker after bunny's death and distancing from TMH (note that your """case""" on him is even weaker than your """case""" on me).

If on the contrary there is one scum, it is you. As I have a town read of TMH, I would go for this hypothesis first.

question: if you think that there is a scum rolecop, how likely is it that they never hit a town pr before the claims happened?

[lewarcher82]

how do you know that scum had claims that were related to their real flavour? You are quoting two particular cases that allow it to happen. May I know what you imagine pine's and chk's fake claims to be?

I am going by what information we have. alex and PatB both had fakeclaims that were closely related flavor-wise to their actual roles. None of the other flipped scum claimed role names before they flipped. We don't know for certain, but given the evidence we have, it's a reasonable assumption.

That there are 5 scum makes it balanced, not that you added cop. You compare this to a 4-scum theory to make it look solid.

Setup analysis is a legitimate tactic. Is it 100% guaranteed to work? No, but I'm not claiming that my theory is absolutely correct, only that the evidence supports it. I think most people would agree that the 4-scum scenario looks town-favored.

Missing the point. I am accusing you to misrep the situation by comapring your own reconstruction with a 4-scum one, ignoring every other possible 5-scum patterns. It is a methodological remarl, as it is made clear by the parts of my post you do not quote. As for 4-scum being unlikely, I would agree if I hadn't a town read of TMH.

we would be idiots, if we, as a scum team, grouped up in such an evident way to push a mislynch.

Again, I will point out that the scum didn't expect thil to die N5. If you and TMH were scum with PatB, but esurio didn't kill thil, it would have been a mylo on D6 with the 1v1 still intact, and thil almost certainly would have been lynched given the general opinions of him. Scum win. The scum just needed to eliminate their biggest threat at the time: the SK, and they wouldn't have to worry about anything else.

so your scum completely ignored the fact that someone killed chk and it was not the SK?

Now you come out with a theory that suggests two scum teams: guess what? Looker is in both.

You misread what I said, or maybe it wasn't clear. I am not suggesting two scum teams. If there is one scum player remaining, it is almost certainly you or TMH. If my theory is correct and there are two scum players remaining, it is you+TMH. If I am right that there are two scum players remaining, but I am wrong about you+TMH, then the only possibilities left are you+Looker and TMH+Looker. In that case, I need to think about which scenario is more likely before I decide who to vote for.

you pushed so much on the fact that 4 scum is unlikely, that this objection sounds really weird.

From my POV, esurio is confirmed town. If I am right about it being option 2, Looker is town as well. Then if there are two scum, it makes you and TMH mafia. Your last post reads very well in this direction. Attempt at framing Looker after bunny's death and distancing from TMH (note that your """case""" on him is even weaker than your """case""" on me).

Where am I "framing" looker?

it is absolutely clear from what I have written that I think scum was going to attack Looker. Looker scum is almost an implication of what you have written. As I saw bunny's death, I sat on my chair and said to myself: let's see who is the first one who suggests Looker is scum.

question: if you think that there is a scum rolecop, how likely is it that they never hit a town pr before the claims happened?

Without doing the math in detail, it seems reasonable. If you assume a 5-man scum team, then 2/3 of the starting non-mafia players were not town PRs. I don't see the point you are trying to make here though. Scum roleblocked the claimed cop every night after his claim, and they killed claimed town PRs a couple times.

Ok. It's possible. But so you think that not only SK was not nk-immune but just one-shot BP, but there was also a role around capable of detecting him? Sounds extremely unlikely to me (balance-wise), ad trust me, I know the role a little bit.

[lewarcher82]

as for Looker: mmmh maths failed me, I am afraid... we are five, so it is obvious from your pov that if the team is not I+TMH then it must be 1 of us + Looker.

I still think that bunny's death must mean something. You implied so yourself (by rhetorically stating it made no sense) and then never bothered analysing it. I think that the likliest reason to kill bunny was to make Looker look guilty. I think this would work very well if you are the last scum.

as for the whole 1vs1 thing: I said it before and I stand by it. There were plenty of explanations for two players being blocked. A JK, a scum JOAT, cop investigating a player who returns no report. I believed cop's claim and had a strong town read on patb. Tell me: how is ignoring an uncc'd cop report that turns out to be correct any better than not accepting an absolutely non-compelling 1vs1 situation on two players I used to read as town?

on your balance speculation:

Ok. It's possible. But so you think that not only SK was not nk-immune but just one-shot BP, but there was also a role around capable of detecting him? Sounds extremely unlikely to me (balance-wise), ad trust me, I know the role a little bit.

There's already a role that has flipped that can detect him (thil), so there goes that argument.

why do you assume that thil would be able to detect sk?
and even so, do you realise that the more roles are able to detect an sk who is not nk immune, the less balanced the setup is? Or are you - again - ignoring this contraddiction on purpose?

[lewarcher82]

The reason I'm not analyzing Bunny's death much is because I don't think any solid conclusions can be drawn from it. I think it was strange, but whatever the reason was for it, I don't think there are any obvious suspects that it points to. And again, I am not accusing Looker of being scum, so how does it follow that Bunny's death being intended to frame Looker somehow makes me scum? This is actually quite ironic that you keep bringing up Bunny's death and pushing the idea that someone is trying to use it to frame Looker, when it is you are the one who is actually trying to use it to accuse me.

As I said, maths failed me, and brought me to over-intepret what you had written about Looker. I am still glad I brought this argument, tho. I am convinced scum was preparing the field for a frame. No death is meaningless. I will still refer too this point later in this post(*).

I still find it hard to believe that scum didn't reaalise that there may be a vig.

you should probably put things in the right perspective. n1 was generalised protection by JOAT. We all know that. N3 was 3 kills. Thil died n5: I think any rational scum team would have assumed an odd night vig. So either they decided to sacrifice patb to get rid of the tracker, or they planned to sacrifice him to make the players who did not support the 1vs1 thing look bad. another element pointing to you being scum.

From my pov, you will naturally undrestand that it's you and/or looker and/or tmh. bunny's death(*) still works to point to looker being town, and the fact that TMH committed himself to denying the 1vs1 points to him being town. I may be wrong about one, but I can hardly be wrong about both.

And don't be ridiculous: 99% of cops are unable to detect SK's... is this the first time you play a game with a sk? (<-- real question: please answer)

[lewarcher82]

@looker:

(Do you know you FOS'd the entire playerlist in your fourth paragraph?)

(1) ^ no, where?

(2) the whole theory by kdub is based on pov, man... no more and no less than mine... please, explain better the merit of your objection.

(3) why are you calling yourself unexperienced? You joined mafiascum before I did. Actually, we even played together already in 2009, when we were both "freshmen"...

(4) how many

weeks

do you need to compete your re-read? You have joined the game more than 10 days ago.

@esurio: even though some players are refusing my theory, I implicitely already commented on the posts you quote. I am glad someone else noticed it. I think someone else is pretending not to.

[lewarcher82]

and here I am, I answer esurio:

TMH

seems to have followed a similar train of thought as I did. He believed thil, was surprised at those who wanted to lynch cop despite results, was completely wrong about patb... all this screams town to me.

kdub

played a safe game til this last day... he followed safe wagons on espeonage (right after rereading, in his first post) and dana, but he did little more (except putting a vote on GW for no apparent reason, which could look like pressure but actually be an attempt at fishing). His theory on scum rolecop is weird in the merit of the case and presented with fallacious rhetorical stratagems. I had my reasons to think sk was in the voting bloc. I had my reasons to think it was CP, and I explained them in a quite convincing way. I call for a claim, claim came and it was the name of a bounty hunter who has an evil doppelganger. Honestly, it is ridiculous not to see how easy the connection was. Especially if you think that I was smart enough to fake the report on thil's crystal ball (I even asked him if he had one after reporting!) but not smart enough to make the connection between samus and dark samus.

You did not ask me what I think of Looker, but I am doing some thinking. If kdub is scum and he is pushing my mislynch in such a blatant way, he probably know that this is lylo. So I was entirely wrong in assuming that wifom pointed to Looker being town. The fact that: I proposed a theory with him town --> he still rejects my arguments in favour of him being town, may point to him being scum with kdub, whose case on me looker is now indirectly supporting without committing himself to it.

tl;dr

: scumminess: kdub>looker>tmh; esurio confirmed town.

looker, why does this statement of mine bother you to the point you criticised it:

From my pov, you will naturally undrestand that it's you and/or looker and/or tmh.

but this earlier statement by kdub bothers you not:

If I am right that there are two scum left but it is not TMH and lew, then what is a less likely scumteam: TMH+Looker or lew+Looker?

?

[lewarcher82]

kdub, what makes evident that your purpose is tunneling and not scumhunting is that you didn't even ask me "how did you peg cp/weird's role & flavour?". You started with your theory without trying to see if I was or was not able to provide a description of my train of thoughts. This is something only scum does.

Unfortunately for you, my scumhunt style is very much based on inference and abductive reasoning. Making inference and try to verify it is what I always do, both as town and as third party, meaning whenever I have to scumhunt.

Meta(1): In cookie scout mafia I was town. from ISO 23 to ISO 36 I made a case based on mere inference about the flavour was formatted in the PMs. I got someone lynched. I was wrong.

Meta(2): In murder at the hotel mafia I won the game as sk by assuming that the last scum was a member of the jailers neighborhood, based on the fact that it was conceivable that the tracker was killed because they knew they had jailed another PR. I took the risk of killing the last scum and made everyone think the other lylo-player was the last scum.

In this very game - and sorry but I have no time for linking - I made a similar inference when I thought it was conceivable that Ythan was a RB and had blocked thil the night in which thil wa reporting. I was absolutely convinced of my theory and voted thil. Ythan claimed doc and my theory collapsed. I moved my vote.

My case on CP worked exactly this way, and since you didn't ask for any explanation before attacking, I will answer the question you didn't ask and explain how I got to the result I got.

Since no one in the VB was targetted by scum, I assumed that scum *might* have targetted someone on one of the nights in which less than two kills occurred: sk's are often nk immune. So I looked at the VB and concluded that 2 players were likely to be the SK: either esurio or CP. Esurio was the one player whom hohum FoS'd, and since SK had killed hohum, I saw to options: (1) esurio SK kills hohum for fosing her or (2) CP SK killed the player who FoSed esurio to wifom. I decided to bet on the second one, because my townread of esurio was strong, and started pushing to get a claim by CP/weird. Weird claimed a role that is the perfect fakeclaim of a SK. After some chaos, he claimed to have been hit on n2. My initial inference was confirmed. Meanwhile, a nameclaim came, and it was the name of a bounty hunter who has an evil doppelganger. Why should a bounty hunter be a BP. Now I realised that of course if weird was a sk he could not claim a killing role, because he knew there must be another one out there: the one who killed chk. Likelihood of weird being SK was now enormous. I pushed my theory to its natural conclusion and hypothesised samus was prolly a fakeclaim for dark samus.

I will now answer any questions on this. Please, take your time to make up something credible...

[lewarcher82]

missed that. I have no idea, esurio. Honestlly, what should I answer?

I may say TMH, as he is on the town-side of my scummylist... but it's just stupid, scum will definitely kill you next night. If there is a tomorrow, it's 3 player lylo... why would they keep alive someone who will automatically have the hammer?

There is also another point, which may bring me to answer: to nobody. But in case it did not occur to those who are actually scum, I will not mention it, because it would help them. Unless you ask me to mention it, of course.

[lewarcher82]

role, kdub, r-o-l-e. When I said a role that is a perfect fakeclaim for sk, I meant r-o-l-e. Role = BP. Not samus. BP. And BP is the perfect claim for a sk who is in a game with a vig and, for what he knows, vig could confirm him being hit.

Are you really unable to understand this much? I think I explained what a role is earlier in this game, although I would expect you to know the definition if you are played a large themed :-/

(I already acknowledged my mistake on what you had written on Looker: skimming and english third language. More important, in my third-to-last post I have written that

If kdub is scum and he is pushing my mislynch in such a blatant way, he probably know that this is lylo. So I was entirely wrong in assuming that wifom pointed to Looker being town

)

[lewarcher82]

You twisting my words is scummy; I said worst case scenario, not "let's do this". And I thought that's where esurio was headed with that "who gets the bulletproof vest" question - no lynch and hope the kill doesn't go through.

are you so terribly delayed with your re-reading that you really thought there is a bulletproof vest? It was evidently a hypothetical question. And I think you know it. Please, explain, who is supposed to give out the vest? The vig? The flav cop who already used his investigation? Or one of the VT's?

However, I will complete kdub's answer. If there are two mafia, we are on lylo, and with nl we lose. If there is only 1 and we nl, then we hit mylo tomorrow and we either nl again (stupid) or have 1/4 instead of 1/3 of hitting scum. It is stupid in both cases: even if there is only one scum, we would just give him the chance of picking the lylo players he likes better.

@kdub: it is evident that you are tunneling me, or if you are not and we are both town (but I don't see how it is possible), you are so convinced that you are right that whatever I say you will just answer "not buying it". If you had spent 30 seconds considering the problem of the SK (whose elimination is the only damn reason why town has not lost this game, btw, although you always ignored this point), you'd see how easy to formulate was the dark samus hypothesis. First: the BP claim was relevant and conclusive, because of the presence of a vig and because of the fact that it confirmed my speculation that he could have been hit on one night with few deaths. Second: you don't need to

know

that fake claims are similar to real names (though I wonder what the fake claim for marx could be) in order to think that aran samus may be a fake claim for dark samus, once you have concluded, for reasons that only you seem to ignore, that the player is likely to be a sk.

[lewarcher82]

No, I'm not "terribly delayed", I just thought he had a point behind that question. Just because he wasn't CC'd doesn't mean he claimed his actual role.

meaning what? A killing + vesting role? Town with 2 joats? Come on, it's ridiculous.

@esurio: ok, but it will take a little time.

[lewarcher82]

Take a look at the kill flavors. Notice that the mafia kill flavor (incinerated) is missing on N2, the same night that alex said he was shot at. I suspect that the mafia tried to kill CP and failed.

everyone knows that... do you even read what I write? I went over this in one of my last posts. Today. The idea that sk could have been hit when no or little deaths occurred was one of the reason why I (1) wanted to discuss the flavours (remember?) and (2) assumed the sk was perhaps within the VB.

Now you can rejoice: I had already provided you with what you seem to consider good material for your tunnel.

Now tell me,

when else could he have been hit

? Answer, please.

And who else but mafia could have hit him

? Why would a vig (whom I thought to be an odd night vig, back then, but say it was a normal vig) even try to shoot CP on early in game? So what exactly is new in what you are saying?

@esurio: mb53 iso comes tomorrow. To do that I need actual legwork, and I don't have time tonight.

[lewarcher82]

mod: my wife-to-be is sick and I have to take care of everything... I will have to stay on V/LA for the next 24 hours

accordingly, you will have to wait for the promised content.

[lewarcher82]

Well, esurio, it's a crappy homework you gave to me... mb53 activity level is incredibly low.

I have found very little to comment, but I post here my few observations...

day 1: generally defending thil out of no apparent reason, though not as strongly as tragedy did.

after which:

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2950369

soft bussing Lucresia, wothout explaining why.

and generally supporting the tragedy wagon without adding any content... why would he think tragedy is scum? They had the same reads of Lelouch...

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p2978849

already pointed out the contraddiction here: supports the Vb but votes differently.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p2982085

slight scum read on another player who will turn out to be scum. After Lucresia, it makes 2.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p3042175

after denying espe-scum all game long, he puts him on L-1.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p3046245

I am unable to understand the meaning of this post. On a merely linguistic level, I mean.

after which we got Looker, who kept promising content for over two weeks.

I am being having a very hard time at home these days... I apologise for the poor formatting of this post, but as I said, I have to take care of a lot of stuff irl

@kdub: nobody is denying that scum had a good reason to eliminate sk. Wanna keep stating the obvious much longer? We have a perfect and public sample of scum pushing for a sk-lynch: it's PatB. But what he said was in the interest of both scum and town: eliminating the sk was evidently a priority to everyone but the sk, at least to me, as I did (and do) not know if sk could joint with scum. Besides, 3:3(2):1 can be auto-lose for town, in case both scum and sk hit town the following night. It can lead to 1:2:1 even lynching scum the following day. Is it pro-town to cross-fingers and "hope" that there will be crossfire?
This, however, is not what I was thinking back then, because I was convinced that PatB was town, meaning we would have lynched two town players in a row with a sk alive.

Now it is my turn to ask you a question, kdub. What did you think about vigs before esurio's claim? Did you think we had one, or not? And why?

[lewarcher82]

CALLED IT.

FUCKING CALLED IT.

LOL, this is actually helping me make my point about why you are probably scum with lew

@kdub: nobody is denying that scum had a good reason to eliminate sk. Wanna keep stating the obvious much longer? We have a perfect and public sample of scum pushing for a sk-lynch: it's PatB. But what he said was in the interest of both scum and town:

eliminating the sk was evidently a priority to everyone but the sk

Did eliminating the SK help the town? In the sense that it eliminated an anti-town faction, you can say that.

But if it were not for esurio, lynching the SK would have almost certainly lost the game for the town - a fact that only the mafia could have known at the time.

THAT is my point, that lynching the SK actually would have been VERY bad for the town had they been privy to the information that the mafia had.

at least to me, as I did (and do) not know if sk could joint with scum.

Sorry, you brought this up before, but I'm calling bullshit. Go look at as many games as you can that have both mafia and an SK. Tell me in what percentage of them can the SK have a joint-win with the mafia (and I'm not talking about draw scenarios). I'd be shocked if you come up with a percentage in the double digits. No town player would ever worry about this possibility.

Besides, 3:3(2):1 can be auto-lose for town, in case both scum and sk hit town the following night. It can lead to 1:2:1 even lynching scum the following day. Is it pro-town to cross-fingers and "hope" that there will be crossfire?

False dichotomy. First, see my point above that lynching the SK would have benefited the scum and hurt the town - a fact which only the scum could know. Second, it assumes that lynching the SK was guaranteed (which was NOT the case unless you had inside knowledge that allowed you to

know

alex was the SK, i.e. you are mafia).

Now it is my turn to ask you a question, kdub. What did you think about vigs before esurio's claim? Did you think we had one, or not? And why?

I did not. There had only been one kill with the "slashed" flavor, and I suspected it may have been Dekes (who claimed Kirby, JOAT). At one point, I asked if the "slashed" kill flavor made sense for Kirby since I was not that familiar with the flavor, and someone (I think GW) said yes. So no, I did not think we had a vig.

the case on the SK was simply stronger than the 1vs1 to me. Believe it or not, thil looked like a damn genuine cop, and we all had a strong enough townread of PatB (incl. you, amirite?). I think PatB evidently made a mistake when he faked his reports (what else? please, answer), and part of his team had to abandon him and bus him. You were very evidently one of them.

as for sk-joint-scum, I have no meta, and you know very well I have no time to go look for it. Significantly, after I announce I have troubles irl, you provoke me asking me to do legwork that you know very well i cannot do.

But I have my experience. I played SK twice. Once I could joint, once I could not. Deal with it. It is a normal consideration to make. Perhaps you, being scum, know if he could or not. but to someone who is not scum, it is natural to wonder whether.

I will however admit that scum had a good chance to try and win by getting the sk lynched (assuming he could not joint and assuming they were so imprudent not to think that there was prolly a vig around - more on this tomorrow). Which does not mean that town should not have been worried of carrying a living sk at endgame.

[lewarcher82]

The reason I am discussing it is because lew brought it up in an attempt to justify SK-hunting on D5. In response to him, I pointed out that a joint SK-scum win is not something that townies generally concern themselves with. Don't you tell me to stop speculating over it. When lew, who brought it up in the first place, admits that he was reaching for excuses here, then I'll drop it.

This is preposterous and will never happen. If it is stupid as town to be worried at the hypothesis of a jointing sk, then I was stupid. But I do not understand why you refuse to accept the fact that I did consider the possibility. And it is absolutely normal for me to try and eliminate a sk before endgame. It is evident from all you are writing that you have decided to tunnel and you are constructing argumentations to support your position.

If you were 90% sure that thil was the cop, then why the hell didn't you go after PatB?

This question has been answered several times.

[lewarcher82]

I want to hear

his

reason, not yours. And while I have a feeling what his answer will be, I specifically mentioned the "90% sure about thil" thing that he brought up for a reason. I'd like to hear his response without help from anybody else.

hey, jumpy biy, I was referring to

his

reason: he stated several times in game that he had a town read on both elements of the 1vs1. So why asking again?

[lewarcher82]

Well duh, but I was hoping for more detail than that. Otherwise, saying "I had a read on X" is an excuse to justify any behavior, regardless of how scummy.

see? The only reason you asked a question that was already answered is that you wanted to make this comment about the weakness of tmh's reads. Tunneling.

And yeah, tunneling can be scummy, it depends on how you do it, and when. This explosion of activity of yours on possible lylo combined with tunneling is definitely scummy to me.

[lewarcher82]

I answered each point kdub. Do you want to ask all your question again? I will answer all of them again.

[lewarcher82]

mod: I am sure Looker could use a prod.

[lewarcher82]

• Kinda in the middle of something, so ask me questions; otherwise, I have nothing to say.

are you freaking kidding us? Ok, here come the questions:

(1) your read on me
(2) your read on kdub
(3) your read on TMH
(4) your comments on esurio's play
(5) who do you think is liklier to be scum with PatB?
(6) do you see any connections between living players and dead scum players?
(7) what do you think of bunny's death?
(8) what do yo think of my sk-hunt?
(9) how many scum do you think we have?
(10) setup speculation: what scum role(s) should be still alive in your opinion and why?
(11) do you think that the 1vs1 of thil and PatB?
(12) do you think it was reasonable to assume that Dekes had slashed chk before esurio claimed the kill?

This is just the first portion. I am sure more will come, and not only from me.

• Still don't see how I'm guaranteed scum, but whatev.
  
• I'm pretty much down to lynch whoever the confirmed town thinks we should at the moment; I just want this game over with, even if it's me we choose to lynch.

this is scummy as hell. Esurio said more than once that she thinks you are scum - though she didn't say why - so it is INCREDIBLE to me that you as town on possible lylo would entrust the whole game to someone who thinks you are scum! This is as strong as a scum claim to me.

[lewarcher82]

@esurio and Looker
Please contribute something today. I can continue arguing with lew and TMH today, but you guys are the ones I'm really trying to reach. It's frustrating to have my efforts met by indifference from the people who the outcome of the game rests upon, even moreso than if you just disagreed with me.

aye aye... esurio is the one who has got the hammer, so I guess Looker is the scum partner you are desperately asking for support, now that your encryptor is dead and you cannot prod him with daytalk any longer.

[lewarcher82]

I think you're struggling against kdub and

reaching out for anything

to help your case

examples of me reaching out for things, please.

It's posts like your last one that foster the disillusionment of Mafia. All it is is a bunch of folks pointing fingers and making baseless accusations based off of alleged POV and the desire to survive. We're better off rolling dice.

srsly, should this be the post of a town-player at endgame? if this is all you see, quit playing mafia and consider bowling instead.

I think you're struggling against kdub and reaching out for anything to help your case, whether it be relevant and/or indicative of someone being scum or not.
I think kdub is an excellent disputant and can only hope that he's town. I can see him as scum, but only due to his competent arguments.
I think that if TMH is scum, then he's won.

so you managed to answer all the 3 questions without taking a position about who you think is town and who you think is scum.

my conclusion: you and kdub are the last scum.

[lewarcher82]

first of all I apologies for the delay... family visiting and organising my wedding devoured my free time in the last two days.

My point was that by continuing to complain about tunneling and whatnot, you are trying to discredit me without advancing the discussion in any way. You've admitted that you see that the scum were strongly motivated to push an alex lynch on D5, and you've said that you strongly wanted to lynch alex on D5 under the claim of "I had town reads on PatB/thil and an SK read on alex" (unprovable), yet you have not conceded that I have legitimate reasons to suspect you because of this. Sure, you "answered" my points in the sense that you gave the answer I would have expected scum to give. Do you at least see where I am coming from here?

The only reason why I did not concede that your reasons are legitimate is that I still have my townread on TMH quite intact, which, if correct, makes you necessarily scum if there are 2 left.

But you are perfectly right on one thing: your case is acceptable. None of your assertions is impossible, but none is conclusive either, and you try to present them as conclusive without the tiniest doubt. Which makes the difference between scum tunneling and town tunneling. Town starts from a hypothesis ad investigates it, especially on possible lylo. Scum starts from a conclusion and push its until they get the mislynch done.

Inferring Samus's flavour was extremely easy, and it only took some common sense and a little googling of the name Samus. Even if the Dark Samus speculation had turned out to be mistaken, Aran Samus was still a bounty killer who claimed to have no killing role. As easy as this.

Let's talk more about your analysis of D5 for the moment. Given that you admitted that the scum would have strongly wanted to lynch alex on D5 (especially if they had inside info that made him more likely to be the SK), do you find TMH scummy because he helped you push that wagon and appears to have the same excuse you do? Why or why not? Given that I was against the alex wagon, and Looker, being a replacement, only threw his vote on at the end when the deadline was an issue, what do you think our motivations were at the time (mine moreso than Looker)? Are those motivations consistent with scum?

No. I did not and do not find him scummy for that. As I said, every half-competent scum would have assumed the existence of a vig. As scum, with a fake-claimed sensor, you cannot just cross-fingers and assume that chk's kill came from a JOAT who had already claimed all his actions and didn't mention a killing power. Therefore, it was extremely likely that the 1vs1 (which scum knew to be real) would have resolved before lylo, and it would have been suicidal for scum to support PaTB's original suggestion of hunting the sk the way he did.

Which also answer your last question: scum-kdub realises that weirdalexv was the big wagon and tried to distance from PaTB. Someone has to hammer: Looker is fosed by some players (one name: bunny), he is more expendable than kdub. [sidenote: before his last posts, I was still able to accept the idea of Looker town... not any longer, tho]

You never did link me to the game where you were an SK and could joint-win with the scum. I want you to do so because I am genuinely curious. It's such an unusual thing to see in a game that I suspect it was a case of a draw scenario or a non-standard SK win condition, obviously different from a joint win in the sense you were talking about. I noticed that you tried to back out of this with your "if I'm stupid for thinking that..." thing, but I think you just don't want to admit that it was a bad excuse. You don't strike me as a dumb player, you actually strike me as a fairly competent one, so excuse me for doubting your claimed thought process there. If the game you played really did allow for this possibility, I'll concede the point.

No. It does not. I have been an idiot. What the game allowed was a SK SOLO WIN in case of scorched earth. I was completely wrong. Still, I genuinely thought this was an option until I re-read my old PM ten minutes ago. I even celebrated my win as "sk SOLO win" in my wiki page (you can check the versions to see that it was not modified recently)...

I guess I just gave you a further reason to suspect me. Meh. It's just what happened and I cannot change it. I guess I was mislead by the fact that on epicmafia SK can regularly joint with mafia... I regularly played there for over 3 years, my last account is named Temperature and my avatar is identical with my avatar on this site. I guess it's a very weak argument, but unfortunately it's true, and I won't add anything to it.

I concede to you that in BOTH games I played as SK I could not joint win. Still, I thought I could, even when I was playing the game. It's a mere and fortunate coincidence that I decided to eliminate the last scum and keep claiming vig to the final win.

@everyone, but especially esurio. I can guarantee regular activity (although a little delayed) in the next two days; the last day before deadline will be harder for me: weekends suck two weeks before getting married. Consider this as you plan your posting activity.

[lewarcher82]

My conclusion: We need to make our statements and state the name of who we want to lynch.

kdub, you.

I think it's funny you changed positions again based on actionless words as opposed to voting pattern or ANYTHING worthwhile.

explain. Your insistent refusal to make exact reference to the content is the final element that points to you being scum.

Do us a favor and replace out please. It'll give us a deadline extension and hopefully bring in a player who will actually read the game and make informed decisions.

you don't really expect this to happen, or you would have asked before. We are 48 hours from deadline, even if mod found a replacement and gave us a couple of extra days, replacement could not possibly have enough time to catch up and post. Scum tactics.

Uh, where did I "distance" from PatB? I was pretty clearly saying on D5 that I thought he was town.

not supporting his suggestion of hunting the sk is the distancing I refer to, and it was also pretty clear in what I have written. Going any further and overtly bussing your scumpartner would have been enormously scummy, as no one else thought he was scum.

How could the scum "assume" there was a vig when there wasn't even a general agreement among the town that day about it?

lolwut???? do you think scum would make their assumptions based on what town thinks? Or that scum would sincerely discuss their concerns about vigs in thread during day?

Can you explain why you have a town read on TMH? What has he done this game that makes you think he is town?

this takes time, and requires me to make the second ISO legwork of the day. I will try to post this later today, as it will be beneficial to town by showing my reads to esurio and by forcing you to an even more open and evident scumtunneling.

@everyone: while I ISO TMH, can someone check some of Looker's meta? Him being or not being an endgame-lurker as scum is something that should be easy to find out. If no one will, I will, but I also have a job, so be patient.

[lewarcher82]

very well Looker. Now I wait for you to actually do something more than coloring the flips.

Besides, I think all is reduced to this:

according to kdub:
weirdalexv - 6 -

The Master Hand, lewarcher82, Pinky and the Brain

,

Bunnylover, thil13, Looker

- (L-0) [with all scum voting the SK, voters n. 1, 2 and 3.]

according to me:
weirdalexv - 6 -

The Master Hand, lewarcher82,

Pinky and the Brain,

Bunnylover, thil13,

Looker

- (L-0) [with kdub being scum and avoiding the wagon]

kdub's reconstruction assumes that scum was so sure of the absence of a vig that they tried to instant win the game by getting thil lynched the following day. I call this bullshit. Scum would be imbecile not to assume the existence of a vig, and i explained why.

I have explained my recontruction in the last posts. Feel free to keep asking me questions.

[lewarcher82]

@lew: Why is our name red in one VC and blue in another VC?

dude, are you serious? Did you even bother reading the two lines I have written? It's red (as yours) in kdub's reconstruction cuz he says I am scum; blue in mine, while his is red.

[lewarcher82]

I didn't notice I have a vote on myself. This settles it. Three possible scenes:

(1) I was wrong and TMH is scum.
(2) there is only one scum left.
(3) I am scum.

I know for a fact that 3 is wrong. I don't think TMH is scum. If it is option 2 and there is only 1 scum left, I am expendable, and I am absolutely certain it is kdub.

vote:kdub

just end this day already. esurio: if you still have a shot, once I have flipped town you need to be cautious. I am sure you know what I mean.

[lewarcher82]

I think he meant a safe-LYNCH, kdub. Otherwise, why vote me?

[lewarcher82]

Lew's response to me makes it obvious that he wasn't the one who gave it to me, which is what I originally thought because his claimed power seems so weak and redundant and it would make more sense to me if he was hiding that long enough to give it to me, but I guess not.

Wait, you actually

have

a BPvest?

I've read between the lines a little and have a pretty good idea of who it is, but I'll save it for tomorrow because we can maybe confirm a second person if they don't get shot tonight and basically auto-win this.

IF there are 2 of them, and lew isn't the RB:
1) you'll most likely drop dead
2) you'll be RB'd

Unvote

for one second while I go figure out EXACTLY when Ms.Esurio claimed. Because I don't like the BPclaim at all.
1) When did you get the vest?
2) who gave it to you?
3) Are you told if you're shot?
4) What day did you claim?
Vote goes back on lewarcher unless esurio's iso looks like shit.

Just keep in mind that as confirmed town,

Yeeeeeaaaaahhhhhh, going to mos' def' unvote now and just look for something.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

You only had to ask. If someone gave you a vest, which I doubt, it wasn't me. Apparently, if someone did, it was either kdub or Looker. Or TMH is a great actor.

town would be incredibly overpowered with: vig + cop + tracker + 1-shot flav cop + doc + joat + someone-who-gives-vests, this is why I doubt your BP-claim.

and no, I am not the roleblocker and I am not scum. I hope you know what you are doing with your wifom. Tomorrow is saturday and as predicted my activity (if any) will decrease.

I highly disapprove of the way you are handling this from your confirmed-town position, and again I suggest you all consider very well what you are doing and why.

P-EDIT: that question was asked at day start, but then everyone told me to shut the fuck up about wifom.

G'night ladies&gentlemen

[lewarcher82]

No wait. GW said Dekes didn't go anywhere N3.

Yo. Still people - definitely lying - insist they were convinced that chk was a joat kill, and based entire cases on the pureile idea that scum was convinced of that too. But you all appear to be completely blind.

I honestly think it's esurio's gambit + the possibility of esurio still having one shot that is keeping scum from scummy-hammering me.

@TMH: don't be ridiculous. esurio is confirmed town. Playing a poor endgame, but confirmed town.

Last call. Move your votes to kdub, please.

[lewarcher82]

pfui @everyone in scumteam except me and hoppster. town played horribly too, esurio & GW are the only two exceptions.

on the unbalance of setup I expressed myself in all qt's. I have nothing against revealing any of the qt's I posted in.

if a tracker tracks a tracker, he must see him visit (let's give town another advantage: 3 investigators are not enough).

added a loss to my record, I am outta here.

[lewarcher82]

killin bunnylover was a mistake... we wanted to confuse everyone... actually it could have worked... problem is: I KNEW ESURIO WAS VIG!!! I KNEW IT BEFORE SHE SHOT! you'll see it reading the qt! We should have blocked her instead of thil, so we would have won... so let's be fair: setup was pro-town, but we did a big mistake not blockin esurio n5...

whatev

(I have a hydra with a damn good player, and we have a perfect hydra record too: two games, to losses LoL)

[lewarcher82]

Problem was very few powers were given to people who actually used them properly (esurio, lew)

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, I think you're forgetting the fact that I shot scum-who-no-one-really-suspected-yet in Chkflip, and completely-useless-anti-town-who-would-have-boned-us-in-lylo in thil, and managed to lie low enough not to get NKed until I could confirm myself.

Lewarcher, how early did you know I was the vig? What gave it away?

I realised it while discussing the night action of the night you killed thil... but for some reason, we still blocked thil, although I also realised that you would have shot him... mmmmmh... two players made wiform about the slashed flavour during game: you and weirdalexv. One was sk, the other was vig.

more details in the qt... mod, can we reveal the mafia qt?

[lewarcher82]

since hopp apparently has nothing against it, and no one else posted anything relevant in the qt, I will give the link.

[lewarcher82]

pfui @everyone in scumteam except me and hoppster. town played horribly too, esurio & GW are the only two exceptions.

Wait, I played well?

you played well, GW. You played like a wise PR. You kept in shadow, did not freak out for not being one of the top townreads of the bloc. In fact, you are the only PR we were unable to identify. And the only one who was able to surprise us with a report.

It is a common misconception that a strong town PR must be a town-leader. It is scum who needs to try and lead town, which is basically what I tried to do all game long.

you played tracker exactly the way one should play tracker. Hats off.

[lewarcher82]

I played horribly.

crazypianist was actually a pretty good SK, but I sucked.

GG all.

nah this is completely wrong. We caught CP pretty early, just check the scum QT. He was evidently a SK and he replaced out after I called him Sk the first time. You were fucked as soon as you replaced in. Not your fault.