Cold War Mafia - GAME OVER!!

[Lowell]

Llama is right. THere's nothing to be gained by playing this question game. And I think setup discussion only aids scum.

vote ghost

. The meta-talk, the setup-talk, take your pick.

[Lowell]

UNVOTE:

I'm having second thoughts about the PI wagon -- it's taken off a little too quickly for my tastes. I still think PI seems scummy, but in the past my scum reads have been pretty terrible, so I'm going to play this one by the numbers.

Furcolow is steadily becoming more and more scummy to me: the "meta" appraisal of PI, the whole RQS deal... and this.

I am going to put my vote on the first alphabetically to have not posted.

What?! It's WAY too early in the game to say who's a lurker and who just had a busy couple of days IRL. You're just trying to substitute a policy vote for actual scumhunting.

unvote, vote gonnano

; and here I was just about to congratulate everyone on our ability to have a non-trivial early game bandwagon.

Everything about this post rubs me wrong. First off the jumping from the bandwagon just because it got relatively big (L-4/5). Second the justification, basically, "oh I'm bad at mafia." Third the fact that he jumps somewhere else for even dumber reasons that he tries to artificially fluff up: the semantics of what is/isn't a lurker.

Looks very much like gonnano just doesn't want to be stuck on this wagon if it continues to gain steam and is looking for any excuse to jump ship. Makes me think scum protecting his own, or scum not wanting to be seen riding a townwagon.

[Lowell]

No dice on gonnano, you say?

unvote, vote ghostwriter

. He started by metatalking a lot. He's continued by defending anyone being wagoned but not offering any alternatives. Both styles make me think he's trying to avoid making enemies.

[Lowell]

Lowell, I've asked you this before, but I do not recall having it answered.

Llama is right. THere's nothing to be gained by playing this question game. And I think setup discussion only aids scum.

vote ghost

. The meta-talk, the setup-talk, take your pick.

I'm sorry, I'm going to need this explained to me a bit better.

In a part of the game where most people were talking about meta and setup to condemn players, I was doing the opposite and got your vote. I can only assume that's what made me your target, but you never answered.

Thought I explained. It's a pattern I'm seeing and not liking. You seem to want to talk about things but not really attack anyone with any seriuosness. Scum sometimes do this to avoid any retaliation.

[Lowell]

Aww, gonnano's sad that I voted him.

Also your points are nonsense. I'd have loved a wagon on you, but I'm not about to pull a groin muscle trying. There's time enough. The GW case, incidentally, is far better than that on PI or ThAdmiral.

[Lowell]

GW in iso:

0- pre-game questions
1- meta discussion of setup
2- re: pre-game questions
3- re: pre-game questions
4- meta discussion of setup
5- meta discussion of setup
6- asks why he is being voted
7- re: pre-game questions
8- re: pre-game questions
9- commenting on a wagon
10- commenting on a wagon
11- commenting on a wagon
12- explains why he isnt' voting
13- commenting on a wagon
14- commenting on a wagon/self-defense
15- asks why he is being voted

The only posts even resembling original content are posts 9 and 11, both of which are two lines explaining why he

isn't

voting someone. Everything else is metachat or targetting his own self-preservation. The only subject that seems to interest him at all is why someone is voting him. He's going out of his way to avoid talking about anything that could be even the slightest bit risky.

[Lowell]

@RC- yeah gonnano's mad I voted him. It's okay, though. Part of his journey.

[Lowell]

Beasts is town. He's right about the wagon-whining going on here. DP is scum; the subtle defense of PI is bizarre.

[Lowell]

The fact he is posting an inability to post is a contradiction. He has stalled in every single one of his posts. Claimed some outside reason, but fact is he has had time to read the thread (ie: he responded to my accusation, but making some excuse for lurking) so it's obvious he read the thread> he could at the VERY LEAST post who he finds scummy even without a case. He hasn't even done that. He has stalled stalled stalled, when he's proven he at least has some time to make a post, but just chooses to not post any opinion or content when he could. Similarly, the content he did promise in these posts (posts designed to stall) was content that wasnt going to be very useful for town at all.

I actually agree with this. If there's one thing Lowell knows, it's lurker types. jmj's posts definately have that vibe of someone who just wants the attention to go away.

unvote, vote jmj

Regardless, it's not clear why LMP is upset about this case. Worst that happens is put pressure on a lurker, best is we kill scum. Right?

[Lowell]

Yeah I'd obviously vote PI as well if it comes to that, but nice try. Very dramatic.

[Lowell]

Normally tunnelling annoys me, but I find myself agreeing with Llama's last few posts. It's like this game is allergic to lynches.

[Lowell]

Haha, nice.

[Lowell]

654 is so horrible it makes me embarassed to be on this wagon. Also, furc is town.

[Lowell]

From 622, last time I paid attention:

622- admiral leads w/ 8 votes, moth 7, amrun 5
624- furc votes am for "something suspicious" [-]
625- furc explains, something something quote tags
631- smarg doesn't want to lynch replacement player moth, will "wait and watch Moth and see" [-, needless]
633- amrun denies 625
639- furc thinks all catpeople look alike, apologizes
643- scorp enters with useless questions
653- bvoigt votes admiral
654- gonn defends moth case with townyWIFOMmeta [-, don't buy this at all]
LMP, scott, bvoigt all point out idiocy of 654
667- red votes moth due to LMPs strange behavior [+]
670- gonna writes a long post to explain views [-, still looks like fence-sitting]
676- bvoigt votes amrun
682- moth enters [+, decent enough]

Caught up. Two obvious (and unfortunately not lynchable today) players are

gonnano

and

smarg

.

gonna

has made a bunch of bad posts, but actually 670 just caught my eye this read. To me it's a long fluff post designed to further weasel his way out of having any strong views. This guy is making way to many moves towards appeasement of everyone for my liking.

smarg

is basically a lurker, which, whatever. Obv I lurk my fair share. But posts like 631 are worse than lurking, they're lurking in plain sight. He basically wants us to know that he doesn't want to lynch someone for lurking because they were replaced by someone who hasn't yet lurked. Uh, okay. Combined with the comic overreaction to furc's claim, or whatever it was. Makes me think smarg, too, is trying to coast through, just posting when he can get a word in either without being noticed or can jump to the forefront of an obvious "town would react like THIS" moment.

I'll go back and think about these wagons. moth looks fine so far, so I'll likely move my vote. We'll see...

*SUSPENSE*

[Lowell]

Sorry for doublepost.

red

and

bvoight

are town. Carry on.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote amrun

. Wait long enough and this game gets easy.

Everything about amrun's behavior reeks of scum trying to sniff out a possible town PM. Badly.

[Lowell]

I am town-aligned. I am from a capitalist country that is not the US.

The setup is not US v Soviets, and there is no way that someone as vociferously anti-Communist as McCarthy is town.

Agreed. Especially someone who allegedly can't read a role PM.

[Lowell]

I don't know where the EGL case came from, but I like it. The "I'm not buddying Llama, look: VOTE LLAMA" posts crack me up, and he seems to only show up to defend himself and ask leading questions to others about their ideas. Save room for me on this wagon.

bvoigt's summary of the case on gonna is exactly right. gonna has that vibe of "OMG me?????" about him, and frankly I'm tired of him always acting like the victim of baseless attacks.

[Lowell]

If ThAd actually isn't the lynch, I'd like to see where his voters break. I would be very very happy with a gonna lynch is Amrun isn't happening either.

[Lowell]

Meh, if DP's that sure about it,

unvote, vote gonna

[Lowell]

unvote, vote bunny

gonna must be houdini or something.

[Lowell]

I'm sure I always say this, but I'll catch up. Just checking in to make sure I don't get replaced or soemthing.

[Lowell]

Not really caught up completely, but in the meantime I tend to agree that Amrun isn't a priority. I'm getting townvibes from him lately, besides.

vote gonna

. This guy hangs around, hangs around. Not clear how.

Hadn't thought that much about furcolow, but will go back and read through again.

[Lowell]

I agree with 1380. At the very least, it looks like DP has reason to think furc is not scum, and threw in the parenthetical to cover his ass. furc can be dealt with later if need be.

unvote, vote DP

[Lowell]

@sathoris' 1382- why do I care how many scumteams there are?

[Lowell]

Not feeling the sathoris case, or the furc one.

I'm growing tired of the DPs "I'm not defending myself because town should focus on scumhunting instead, and I'm town, town town. Look how unconcerned with death I am! Town town town!"

[Lowell]

@1470- yeah sorry, missed the claim. I'll pay attention. let me catch up.

@1460- I was thinking exactly the same thing. game-related or not, PMs are odd in the middle of a game. 1461 isn't the most inspiring response.

[Lowell]

@nacho- upon reread, I still don't understand. probably for the best. is there something in particular I can help you with?

[Lowell]

vote gonna

while I catch up. Whenever someone plays the "whoa is me!" card over and over, yet somehow never dies, that's a problem.

[Lowell]

Did sathoris really post to tell me at least one of seven people on his list is scum? why? Even after it was explained I don't get what the vote analysis was supposed to prove. Other than quasi-logic to justify bandwagonny.

fos sath

THIS is how you bandwagon.

unvote, vote smarg

[Lowell]

Huh?

[Lowell]

People have been saying "gonnano tomorrow" since, like, forever. Hasn't happened yet.

[Lowell]

@1715(Fonz)- gonna and bvoigt have no particular connection IMO. gonna is the one I want lynched. He keeps sliding by despite his horrible posts (read him in ISO, I dare you), only seems to perk up when meta-discussions are at the fore, and everytime we get a wagon started on him someone says "OMG look over there!" and we all go running away like idiots.

@1719(gonna)- this post makes no sense. add this to the category of posts mentioned above. no one would claim neighbor without actually being one. I think the point folks are making is that "neighbor" of itself doesn't actually clear anyone of anything.

unvote, vote gonna

[Lowell]

Then lets lynch gonna, finally. He's been asking for it all game.

[Lowell]

Someone brings up a gonna lynch and the thread dies. Mysterious.

[Lowell]

I'm gonna bask in my amazingness at being so right about gonna for a minute here before I go back to winning this game for y'all.

[Lowell]

This weekend is bad. I'll catch up Monday.

[Lowell]

I like beasts' case on Fonz. Sorta fits with what I was thinking, that fonz seems somehow different in this game than in others I've played with him.

vote fonz

Of the other two leaders, feysal lynch makes a lot more sense than EGL. Hammering two town isn't great, but to some extent I'd say at least it shows courage and looks better than just riding the wagon somewhere in the middle. That's WIFOM like whoa, I realize, but it's enough to make me call the hammers a null tell.

Furc is climbing up the town ladder for his unique ability to stir things up and keep us all lively and talkative, and bvoigt is climbing down for his meta-talking that serves no purpose.

[Lowell]

RL crisis too sad to write here. Hopefully will be back in two days.

[Lowell]

Just checking in, still not back to full speed.

Anyway, I don't really see the feysal/neighbor thing, or how that's particularly damning.

[Lowell]

Thought I posted this already; not sure what happened. I'm wavering on the feysal case, but fonz' "too dumb to be scum" doesn't fill me with confidence of feysal's innocence.

[Lowell]

Fine. If Fonz is defending a scumbuddy we'll get him next.

unvote, vote feysal

[Lowell]

Yeah because people are dying to replace a guy at L-1 81 pages in. Just lynch.

[Lowell]

checking in. offhand fonz' "lowell looks so town" looks like he's buttering me up. not a fan.

[Lowell]

@pere- I have no idea how to read your charts, or more to the point why they're there. Are they supposed to be interesting only, or are you trying to make a point with them? If so I don't see it.

[Lowell]

Usually I find "voting patterns" to be more noise than substance. Behavior at certain key moments is a better way to get information on scumteams, voting patterns usually just serve as a diversion. Hence my concern.

[Lowell]

btw...

Lowell
Furcolow
BotS
Thad

voting bloc?

We really need to get our shit together.

Maybe just make a good case and you won't have to ask in advance

@all- Easter festivities at in-law's might delay me a couple of days. apologies.

[Lowell]

2155 says exactly what I was thinking about smarg of late. The "if I flip town, WILL YOU REPENT/BE SCUM/TERRIFYING QUASI-THREAT" posts are bad news.

[Lowell]

Sorry still away at my in-laws, will catch up. In the meantime nationality claim is a good idea, name claim probably not as folks have said.

I'm soviet. If fonz hasn't claimed, I'd like him next.

[Lowell]

IMO it'll be easier for scum to manipulate. If there's a pattern in the names, they'll see it before anyone else. And if not, either way, giving scum a meta-issue to discuss all day won't be productive.

[Lowell]

As expected, this has turned into an "outguess-the-mod" fest rather than a scumhunting one.

Not quite caught up with all of it, but offhand I'd say that "balance between scumgroups" is more likely to be followed than "nationalities lining up", particularly since we've seen one scum already claim a fake nationality.

[Lowell]

vote peregrine

, on play rather than nationality-meta. Something about the way he's pushing people to decide

exactly how many scum

they think are left is bizarre. IMO it's reasonable to have doubt, and it's reasonable to hedge nationality-related reads because of those doubt. That pere instead wants folks to decide looks a bit like he's trying to reverse-engineer an explanation as to who can and can't be scum.

As for the other leading wagon-- enigma-- I've wavered on him, but lately I like his play: particularly that he's still going on reads and not mindlessly mod-guessing.

[Lowell]

15 bunnylover Che Guevara - Cuban Roleblocker.
3 RedCoyote John Glenn, US Odd-Night Vigilante.
20 LlamaFluff John F Kennedy, US Townie
23 hohum Harold Wilson, British Townie
16 Amrun Joseph McCarthy - US Blacklister
2 Debonair Danny DiPietro Edward R Murrow - US Townie

9 VP Baltar Ho Chi Minh - Vietnamese Soviet Mafia Goon
21 nachomma8 Josep Broz Tito - Yugoslavian Townie
17 gonnano Janos Kadar - Soviet Mafia Goon
12 XScorpion Leonid Brezhnev, Soviet Townie
5 Feysal Erich Honecker - Soviet Neighbour

14 Scott Brosius J Edgar Hoover - US Mafia Jailkeeper

7 LynchMePls Nikita Kruschev - Sovier Watcher
19 Stephoscope Andrei Gromyko - Soviet Mafia Rolecop

Full player/nationality claim list:

Americans:

ThAdmiral
Enigma

Other Free World:

Beasts of the Sea - French
Smargaret - West German

Soviets:

Bvoigt
Lowell
Furcolow
PeregrineV

Other Communist:

Myself - Polish
Sathoris - Albanian

11 US and 13 Soviet. One of the Soviets is lying.

Some of notes.
1)

enigma

didn't seem particularly scummy-- until his last "give up" post. When someone is about to die and all of a sudden has tons of 'obvreads' to share, that's a sign they were holding back. Which to me smells like scum. I'll lynch him if we need, but not right now.
2) I'm still not sold on the 12v12 mechanic. It would be nice if it is, but surely the mod considered massclaims would happen at some point so we shouldn't throw away reads b/c we think we have the setup figured out.
3) Among the american side, the scummiest are enigma and

ThAd

. I fear I have been blinded by flattery. All his "voting bloc" posts don't serve much purpose other than to solidify a group of friends. Also enigma, in his 'whoa is me' post, named ThAd as scum, seemingly out of nowhere. This looks like it could be last-minute distancing, and both could be US-aligned scum.
4) Among the soviet side,

pere

stands out the most. He's been heavy-handed (overly so) with his 12v12 theory, as well as the importance of determining the exact number of scum left. If there's a US hiding among the soviets, I think pere is the most likely and that he's trying shape the debate on his terms. Look back at how quickly the nationality debate has dominated discussion. Clearly some people have things to gain by focusing on this.

[Lowell]

@fonz- yeah, that they're the only two "plain" americans gives me pause a bit, but like I said I think the reads are going to be more important than setup-guessing.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote smarg

sort of fell off my radar as fonz and bvoigt pointed out... which in a way suggests he gained a lot from all the inane setup-talk. count me in.

[Lowell]

I like 2413, though the tone is scummy.

If you think votecounts matter, it's not clear why they

only

matter at the end of a day. Presumably by the end of the day scum have had a chance to dance around and make sure their votes are where they want them, so the "pivot points" when one wagon fades to another might actually be more instructive. Not that I'm volunteering for that.

massclaim is fine with me. I don't think it's going to yield anything we don't already have, but if it's at least participatory that's fine I suppose.

[Lowell]

Oh he did include some non-day-ending votes, nevermind. Looking through I still don't see much of a pattern though. Can you help me out?

[Lowell]

@enigma- so, the best you found was one line where I say Beasts is town? Am i correct?

[Lowell]

Alexei Kosygin. Flavor-wise, it says I have a vision for my country but no way to advoctate for it other than my vote.

The scum are: pere, enigma, and one of bvoigt or sathoris. Pere's claim doesn't ring true at all to me, and Enigma has been scummy for awhile. His isolating quotes with no analysis behind them looks like he's just trying to cruise along pretending to participate.

vote enigma

.

Is there a reason no one is voting?

[Lowell]

^^^ this makes no sense. Where's the line for "appropriate number of town on a wagon"? Why seven? Looks like you invented a parallel logic to justify bad reasoning and now want to stick with it.

[Lowell]

I can't even begin to fathom what a mathematical fail this has become. Yes, given 24 values, choosing eight, it is very unlikely that a

specific

set of eight will all be excluded. But that's true for any eight random values, so I could as easily parse any one of fifty different votecounts and show the different 8-player combinations that aren't on it, and note that it has only an infintessimal chance of occuring that way. The point: all specific events look famously unlikely while very unlikely individual occurances are in fact very likely to happen. The

bigger

point: this is just another exercise in trying to meta our way out of real scumhunting (see: mod-guessing). The better thing to talk about is how enigma is scum (which he is) because he's playing crazy scummy (which he is).

That said, I agree with fonz' assessment of pere. The claim was bad to begin with, but the way pere references it makes it clear (using links instead of reposting, saying "I've already claimed, look back," etc.) that he'd rather not have people think too hard about it. He walked into a bad claim from a bad former player: not his fault, but it doesn't make him less scum.

[Lowell]

101 is cool, don't be sad.

[Lowell]

At this point I'm pretty sure pere and enigma are the american scum.

Pere's claim makes no sense (as I mentioned earlier and then fonz explained), and given that he was planing on doing the green/blue soviet/american role analysis, he seems most likely to reverse his claim nationality to benefit from swithing nationalities. I read back to when the role comparisons started, and orginally pere had 11 americans and 13 soviet, meaning one american switched his claim. Then someone brought up that guevera could be soviet, and pere IMMEDIATELY changed his mind, and made it 10/14. That he was only too happy to do so makes me think he was protecting his partner (who he knew claimed "american" while he claimed "soviet") when given cover to do so with his role analysis. That he so naturally originally put che w/ the americans, giving a 11/13 split, makes me think it's what he

knew

the split should be, since he was assuming the mod balanced things at 12/12.

[Lowell]

someone just do it already.

[Lowell]

omg pere, really? Are you mad that I know you're enigma's partner?

[Lowell]

vote bvoigt

. Right?

[Lowell]

OMG I should have known. Fonz is always scum.