PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[Hoopla]

IMPORTANT SURVEY:

Andrius, Rabies, Vollkan, Le Cupcake, InHimshallibe, slowsilver, LlamaFluff, Benmage, Guderian, Sajin, xvart, chkflip, Zodiark13

:

You all haven't played in a PYP game as far as I remember. These questions are for you. You are being judged based on your answers.

1)

Did you fully understand how the draft system operated?

2)

Why did you choose the numbers you chose?

3)

Do you think it is likelier that scum chose unique X numbers, or doubled up on at least one of their choices?

[Hoopla]

SPYREX:

PLEASE ARRANGE THE PLAYER-LIST THE FRONT PAGE IN THE DRAFT ORDER COUPLED WITH THEIR NUMBER CHOICES. THANKS IN ADVANCE.

[Hoopla]

1)

Did you fully understand how the draft system operated?

2)

Why did you choose the numbers you chose?

3)

Do you think it is likelier that scum chose unique X numbers, or doubled up on at least one of their choices?

3) I'm not sure I understand the question. I can see them doubling up, but I don't understand what you mean by the first part. Maybe I just need sleep..

I don't think you understand the draft if you don't understand the third question. How it works is, each player chooses two numbers (an X and a Y number). Whoever has the lowest unique X number wins the draft, followed by the second lowest unique X number. Once all the unique numbers are put in order, it then goes to the X numbers that were only chosen twice, with the lowest sets being ranked first. Then it goes to X numbers that were only picked thrice, and so on. The Y number is merely the decicider in cases of doubling up (in which case, the lowest Y number goes first if the X numbers are tied).

Obviously, choosing the same X number as someone else will drop your position in the draft - so do you think scum, when they were talking together in their quicktopic, chose to deliberately sabotage a couple of their chances at a good pick by doubling up on an X number? What would you do as scum, if you were in charge of delegating the numbers to your teammates?

[Hoopla]

Do you think Guderian chose Vanilla just to screw with our heads?

No, that's dumb, and seemingly irrelevent..?

[Hoopla]

I was hoping I'd have got more answers for my survey by now, but these will have to do, as I don't want the tells I've derived to become obsolete to the new information that is currently being generated. Here is what I asked;

1)

Did you fully understand how the draft system operated?

2)

Why did you choose the numbers you chose?

3)

Do you think it is likelier that scum chose unique X numbers, or doubled up on at least one of their choices?

1. Over the last two PYP's, we've had several players having no clue how the draft system works, and as analysis of the numbers is very important in the game, it's crucial that people know how this works, otherwise they'll get lost when this comes up.
2. This question was designed mostly as a lead-in to the next question, and to generate some more information on the individual process of thinking/submitting numbers.
3. The most important question. Players of the last two PYP's probably know I'm fond of number analysis, and that this question is a key starting point in addressing the likelihood of someone being scum.

I'm going to operate on the assumption that everyone

gets

how the draft works now. As usual, I hold the belief that scum have chosen 5 unique numbers to maximise their chances of collecting the best set of roles possible. This is optimal scum play, and the only way it becomes suboptimal is if they think town will use number analysis a lot, in which case, doubling up on one number might be a worthwhile distancing ploy. As it stands, with the reactions to third question from those that answered, and the attitudes toward number analysis from previous PYP players, I find it exceedingly likely that scum

have not

doubled up on their X numbers.

The beauty of this is, we have two solid groups of copied numbers, which implies a very strong core of townies - DGB, iam, Andrius, Sajin and Pom ALL picked the number 6, which if my theory is correct, means (at best) there is one scum there, with the possibility of zero. Likewise for the trio that picked the number 8; Llama, Parama and InHim - it's very likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group. What does this all mean? It means that lynching (particuarly early in the game) from these groups is very poor town play, as our odds are much lower than normal, of any one of them being scum.

Consider the draft to be like neighbourhoods. Neighbourhoods designated by the choice of X number;

Spoiler: Neighbourhoods

Hood 1:

Guderian (1,1)

Hood 2:

Volkan (2,6)

Hood 3:

chkflip (9,5)

Hood 4:

Gandalf5166 (12,1)

Hood 5:

Benmage (3,4), slowsilver (3,5)

Hood 6:

Ellibereth (5,1), Rabies (5,7)

Hood 7:

Hoopla (10,1), Le Cupcake (10,6)

Hood 8:

Jack (11,1), xvart (11,7)

Hood 9:

Fate (13,1), PranaDevil (13,10)

Hood 10:

Llamafluff (8,1), Parama (8,5), inHimshallibe (8,7)

Hood 11:

DGB (6,10), iamausername (6,11), Andrius (6,1), Sajin (6,1), Pom (6,1)

If the assumption of scum being in 5 separate neighbourhoods is true, it means neighbourhoods with the least amount of players have higher chances of being scum. For example, if we look at Hood 11, we know at best there should only be 1 scum there, but there are 5 players, which means IF there is scum there, we still only have a 20% chance of hitting it. Whereas, if we compare it to Hood 1, 2, 3 or 4, who only have one player within it. IF there is scum in one of those hoods, it is 100% guaranteed it is that player.

Here's an interesting stat from the last two PYP games. Of the 7 players who have landed unique numbers in the draft, 4 of them have been scum. There is no doubt in my mind, that we should be lynching one of the top 4 - closing down neighbourhoods is a very simple and organic way of trapping scum, as it quickly reduces the possible sets of scumpartners if know scum must be spread across certain numbers.

The only way this plan is possibly fraught with danger is if you believe scum have doubled up on their numbers in the draft. In which case, that is two choices that are very likely to go down the drain, and we are facing a relatively weak scumteam. I would be happy if scum did indeed choose to double up, even if it somewhat undermines the number analysis. Regardless, I am 80% sure scum would not have doubled up, which means the top four players should be battling it out together.

[Hoopla]

If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.

I co-designed this set-up. I helped SpyreX choose what roles went into this game. I know that scum were able to coordinate after they received their alignment.

[Hoopla]

Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;

OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?

This is particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.

Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;

Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.

This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.

~~

Slowsilver also gets micro-town points for this;

If someone targets themselves while they are in jail do they get affected?

This also happened during the role selection process. The reason this strikes me as town, is because scum have a quicktopic, they're discussing role choices together, as a team. Yet, this is a very individualistic mindset, concerned about one particular role and how it will affect him. Also, the very fact that scum are talking together in a QT means you're less likely to ask those sort of questions in public, when you can just ask there. I'd bet that Slowsilver is town too.

~~

A quick comment on the Slowsilver wagon:

This seems completely misguided and wrong. I don't see any of his play as scummy, as much as it is dim. Given the make-up of this wagon, I'm reluctant to call it scum-motivated, as it just looks like overeager players wagoning for the sake of wagoning. I normally endorse this sort of play, as it's a great way to generate information, but I think the mob would be more useful in targeting someone else - I already have a decent enough read on Slowsilver - he's town.

Who's up for a change in direction?

VOTE: Gandalf

[Hoopla]

Fate, I'm still typing.

Going into some survey-specific analysis, I don't think Guderian and vollkan are scum together. They picked 1 and 2 (respectively) as their X numbers and won the draft. For them to both be scum, it means that the entire town didn't pick the numbers 1 and 2, which, although it could happen, it just seems like a far less likely scenario than two scum picking them, when they had pregame coordination. It is a subconcious tendency when fabricating randomness to give a decent spread of numbers, rather than pooling everything together - to the human mind constantly seeking pattern, picking sequential numbers (particularly the top two), seems wrong, especially if they're worried about others looking for patterns. It's the same mentality of scum all block-voting in a row on a townie - although you could do it, and it might be a decent form of distancing, you don't, because you subconciously worry about the links between you and your buddies.

When you look at the reasoning vollkan and Guderian provided for their choices;

2) I figured 1 was too obvious, but 2 was a likely pick because people who were smart enough not to pick one would probably go for larger numbers. And six was chosen because it was relatively close to one without being ridiculously so.

2. Human tendency to avoid the obvious

They are uncannily similar, that if they were scumbuddies, I feel they'd be more worried about matching up their answers so neatly, when they're already linked neatly at the top of the draft.

~~

Of the two, vollkan's answers read more sincere, though he is a very experienced player, so I'm reluctant to give him too much leeway. Regardless, the fact he is so efficient as town makes me not want to lynch him out of the top 4 players, as he could be very useful if given some time to live (if he is town), more so than the other three, I feel. Having ruled out vollkan/Guderian together and chkflip individually, Gandalf is the current best choice in my mind.

[Hoopla]

That said I like the logic behind the top picks being scum organized, I actually didn't think scum were able to coordinate their picks and I wonder if it was different in PYP1 or if its just been too long.

This makes me think Benmage was town. Decently sincere, and matches up well. In PYP1 scum

weren't

able to coordinate their draft picks. It was only from the second edition onward did that become a feature. The rest of his post is good too.

If Benmage is town, and my prediction of slowsilver being town is correct, I'd wager than one of vollkan/Guderian is scum. If they weren't it would mean the lowest X number scum could have picked would be 5, which I find very unlikely for reasons based on the subconcious mind trying to fabricate randomness, which I went into in my last post.

I'm really happy with how this draft has unfolded. A lot of very solid information.

[Hoopla]

Responding to this now;

Oh, and Hoopla had such sound reasoning behind most of her post up until then. Why exactly are we voting for me? I think it might be because I didn't answer her survey. I was on my Wii, and typing is a pain in the ass, so I was only posting in games where my opinion really counted.

1. Yes.
2.IDK
3. I don't think they would have chosen repeat numbers on purpose. It just doesn't make sense.

Oh, and UNVOTE:

This is hilariously paranoid and oversensitive. He stretches his mind to figure out my motive for voting for him, and despite coming to the wrong conclusion, proceeds to do the exact thing that I was supposedly voting him for. This is weak pandering to prevent a vote, which reeks of anxious scum preempting pressure or a wagon on himself and scrambling to thwart it before it surfaces.

Look how quickly he backs down with his vote too, which is worryingly ominous given how much in favour he was for it;

Oh wow. Pretty much what Pom said.

VOTE: slowsilver

~ more Gandalf votes please.

[Hoopla]

And good lord Guderian already CLAIMED scum

I even had to

change the numbers that I sent in

Give me the exact quote and I'll respond to it.

I don't understand why you have problems with my theories, but it'd help if you dropped your shtick for a second and logically explained what is wrong, because I can't see your point through your wild arm-flailing rage. I'm refering to post 110, by the way.

[Hoopla]

ANyway post #110 isn't for you, its for me. Look at #113 and tell me why the hell you arent voting Guderian

Your point hinges on a self-admitted 'not exact' quote, so give me the damn exact quote and I'll respond to it.

[Hoopla]

game theory. I had to change my original numbers too !

HERE. MY NOT EXACT QUOTE CAPTURES THE ESSENCE OF THE DAMN POST ANYWAY.

Okay, it was in queue thread, no wonder I didn't see it here.

I don't think this is particularly scummy - what scum motivation is there to declare that in thread? If you think the reason this is scummy is because it implies Guderian changed his numbers due to being handed a scum QT, explain why. Because I don't think anyone would be that stupid to go "oh, I submitted 7,2, but then I realised my scumbuddies wanted me to pick 1,1!, derp derp, better say that in thread!!" - lets let Guderian explain what he meant though, because it definitely needs clearing up.

For what it's worth, my logic for voting Gandalf is based on wanting to eliminate a unique number, and he is the best choice based on chkflip being town, and because I think vollkan/Guderian aren't scum together. Given the high chances of scum being on unique numbers Gandalf slightly dwarfs going for one of those two, if at least one of those two are town. Plus he's scummy as fuck.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla- I agree your theories would be awesome for previous PYPs. But this one may be different.

Sorry I do not automatically buy that scum could coordinate numbers in the draft. Its highly questionable to me whether scum were able to coordinate number picks. Role picks I can agree with. Even if you did indeed "co design". While I will concede if what you say is true, the argument about "neighborhoods" is a decent one, I still question the premise. How long do you think scum had to coordinate then, given said premise? I also would love to see some arguments from you that do not revolve around this premise. I think every one of your arguments so far is based on it ( or its cousin, the picking of roles, not draft order which I find far more likely to be true). I would be willing to take a poll on this though. Cause I foresee this being an important part of every one of your arguments for the rest of the game and I do not want to wifom toss out said arguments like old dish water.

Perhaps this is something SpyreX can clarify for us then.

SPYREX:

Were scum able to talk in the QT/change numbers if they wished during the sign-up and draft phase?

[Hoopla]

Oh ok #110 was for you, and if you CANT read the meaning there then god help us all.

You say X would not happen based on human MINDZ

I show you X and how it DID happen LAST FUCKIN PYP.

You say "the hells yor point you lunatic??!?!?"

There's a difference between picking 1/2 and 12/13, because 1 and 2 are a lot more likely to be picked by towns, and will get looked at a lot more by towns. I think even when I was scum in PYP2 we picked two X numbers in a row somewhere in the spectrum of 1-15, but going for the top 2 is too obvious. Another point why I thought it was unlikely was because nobody else picked 1 and 2, when normally they are very pickable numbers. I just really doubt that the only two players to pick 1 and 2 are both scum. What likelihood do you give it?

[Hoopla]

Oh NOW you ask after hours and hours of typing, AND me already POINTING OUT THAT POINT MULTIPLE TIMES. SO you just skimmed over:

If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.

You're an idiot, I already did clarify it, and you're damn scummy for insinuating I didn't when you know I did;

If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.

I co-designed this set-up. I helped SpyreX choose what roles went into this game. I know that scum were able to coordinate after they received their alignment.

The reason I'm getting SpyreX to say it, is because Sajin doesn't believe this is true, and it's possible others don't too, because my word isn't good enough. Getting an official, authorative statement saying 'YES SCUM COULD TALK DURING CONFIRMATIONS' will help stop idiots like you who want a cheap reason to discard my analysis.

[Hoopla]

Snipe: Oh I see. I don't really know the likelihood of it, as I don't have the full scum team roster and perfect insight into their personalities. (If only I had known what mithscum was like... if only...), but the goal of scum picking numbers is to to fuck with people, so anything is possible. I mean 110 wasn't so much as a "HERES WHY VOLKAN AND GUDERIAN ARE SCUM TOGETHER!" so much as a "here's a way your argument is factually flawed and may just be hot air, scum literally did two numbers in a row last time."

So basically I'm just in disagreement that you seem to be putting Gud/Volk in their own neighborhood where a townflip on one implicates the other and so forth. NOR how you seem to be justifying not voting them because you group them together AS a neighborhood, as if that makes it poor play to lynch either of them.

I wouldn't lose sleep if we lynched either one of them - I just think Gandalf is a better choice, and I've justified my reasoning for my vote more than any other vote in the thread. I think you have better things to do now rather than harass me, because we're just cluttering the thread. Go ahead and start a competing wagon if you want, infact, I encourage it.

[Hoopla]

Are you really pulling "what scum motivation is there..." etc? What's the scum motivation for ever being scummy? And I know you believe in scumslips. Those quotes are damning.

Also, I tried to look up your reason for choosing (1,1) in pypII but the QT is cutoff. Something about "we have 5 numbers, we can afford to have one person go for broke". Don't you still think that's a likely mafia strategy?

I believe in townslips a lot more than I believe in scumslips.

Sure, there's a bunch of reasons for one scum to go for 1,1 or something similar. My post was dispelling the logic that scum would come out and go 'HEY I SUBMITTED MY NUMBERS, AND CHANGED THEM BECAUSE I GOT A SCUM ROLE AND MY BUDDIES TOLD ME TO DO IT'. I wasn't saying there aren't any good reasons as scum to go 1,1.

[Hoopla]

FOS SCUMBUDDY, VOTE TOWN?

That implies you already know who the scum are. Trying to set me up for something or just tinfoiling?

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla- I agree your theories would be awesome for previous PYPs. But this one may be different.

Sorry I do not automatically buy that scum could coordinate numbers in the draft. Its highly questionable to me whether scum were able to coordinate number picks.

SPYREX: Were scum able to talk in the QT/change numbers if they wished during the sign-up and draft phase?

Yes. Any players could change their numbers before the draft time. Scum QT was activated upon signup. (this is true for ALL PYPS)

So, what do we do now?

[Hoopla]

I think it's not helpful in the slightest to discuss number selections at the moment; we should be scumhunting much more so in the manner of Fate, using Hoopla analysis to lock a case down, and not using the number analysis to

begin

a case.

Scumhunting is the process to determine the alignment of a player (hopefully eking out scum) - as we cannot do this with anywhere near 100% accuracy, we do our best to derive tells to improve on the starting odds of lynching randomly. When you lose the glamorous title of scumhunting, it essentially boils down to improving your odds of lynching scum via the way of mostly subjective tells. Looking at neighbourhoods is a form of improving the likelihood of lynching scum, if done correctly.

I provided a stat earlier about the previous PYP's. Of the 7 players that ended up getting unique numbers in the draft (in previous games), 4 of them have been scum. This is because scum actively choosing to spread across five different X numbers gives them a greater chance of winning/doing better than average in the draft compared to a random townie. An individual scumbag knows 4 other numbers NOT to pick, as any double with any other player sends your hurtling down the draft order. Imagine if a townie knew the X number of 4 random other players in the game - that'd be a massive advantage for them. Well, scum have 5 of those players. It is no wonder that scum do far better than random in the draft when choosing five different numbers.

Most of us seem convinced that scum chose differing numbers, but don't understand this belief means that scum are very likely in a higher density than random in the top parts of the draft. I know I can't speak for everyone else, but I choose to take that objective inflation of lynch percentages, rather than relying on subjective tells to figure out who the scum are, because people have a horrible track record of getting that right.

Seriously, we have four players in this game with unique numbers. It's unfathomable to me that these are all town players from a sheer probabilistic standpoint, due to scum having such better chances of landing a unique number. The wagons on other players lower in the draft are a waste of time (at least on D1 and maybe D2).

[Hoopla]

Hoopla

- generally speaking, when scum pick numbers, do you think they pick to get roles or to prevent roles from being picked?

Um, the draft is a two stage process. One, you submit your numbers, wait for the order of the draft to be announced based on those numbers. Then once that is done, stage two begins: choosing a role. These are individual events. Scum picking numbers to get roles/prevent roles makes no sense.

[Hoopla]

Pome, gandalf and slow are bad players who will always look scummy regardless of whatever they do.
You're town.
Understand these things.
Obey.

That's stupid reasoning - how do you catch them as scum, then?

~~

Some other thoughts;

The Llama/Prana/whoever else debate about Llama's picks is a red herring, and hardly illuminating alignment-wise either way. For what it's worth, Llamafluff is that stubbornly opposed to PR's (at least strong ones), that I don't find his claims unreasonable or false, even if they appear silly.

The Xvart wagon is really dumb, mostly because I can't figure out why so many people think he's scummy. Someone post a succinct analysis/summary of why xvart is being wagoned, because I would really like to know. I'm obviously opposed to his lynch (today) due to him not being a unique number, but I doubt the case against him has any substance.

Some people are happily endorsing the lynch-a-unique-number theory, which gladdens me, as this is a massive change of collective consciousness compared to PYP when nobody really wanted a bar of number analysis. Some seem to be ignoring this, which kind of bugs me, as they're not actively opposed to the idea, but rather don't care/understand it. The town is seemingly divided into people using a form of number analysis (to various degrees), and those not using it at all. Those using some derivative of number theory are all stoicly entrenched on Guderian votes - I was hoping for a bit more debate about which of the four we should lynch, or at worst, have a two-horse race rather than Guderian blitz the field.

I'm frustrated that I am preemptively being linked so thoroughly to Guderian when I have never actively opposed his lynch, quite the opposite - I seem to remember saying he is a perfectly fine lynch, encouraging a bandwagon on him to spawn. There is a very real chance he is scum, almost on par with a coinflip, and the contradictory part of this all is, that is Guderian were to flip town, I would not receive any town points, and I would almost expect someone to spin me as scum based off of it. This is something for later, though.

[Hoopla]

Bad players are almost always far easier to read than good players. Lamenting the (false) fact they always look scummy doesn't solve anything at all, because it discourages indepth anaysis of their motives, which are often more obvious.

[Hoopla]

Also, it looks like #231 went unnoticed. Thoughts?

That topic has sailed. I've already posted the stats twice on previous PYP games. Sorry if I'm misreading your post - I don't know if you were deliberately reposting or not?

[Hoopla]

Also, his excuses are crappy. Good job hoopla being right even though for the wrong reason.

Not wrong, just different.

[Hoopla]

Just Guderian and Gandalf should claim. We only have one noose for today. No point exposing anything more than we need to.

[Hoopla]

I like your style Jack. Odds of Guderian

and

Gandalf being scum?

[Hoopla]

I do not agree with hoopla that we can just simply ignore the block of players who chose 6. She herself having once chose (1,1) as scum and ending up with 2 others choosing it illustrates that just because they happened to pick the same as others doesn't mean they're not scum.
However, those neighborhoods NOT being the place to start is something that I definately agree with her on.

Right, it's very possible a scum chose 6,something, but it's super unlikely that more than one scum did. Which, if true, means that at best there is one scum in the block of five players who chose 6 as their X number.

[Hoopla]

Gandalf needs to claim, by the way.

[Hoopla]

YOU MUST CLAIM WHAT YOU ARE VT TO.

I agree with Fate.

[Hoopla]

Guderian, vollkan and chkflip need to confirm this. If not, gandalf dies. A simple "went for Gunsmith", "didn't go for Gunsmith" is all we need - don't claim roles.

[Hoopla]

Going for Gunsmith in the top 3 seems kind of stupid, then for it to be picked twice in the top 4 is even more stupid. I have some ideas of what I expect to happen from vollkan, chkflip and Guderian, but I think it's best to wait until they claim, before determining what any of the outcomes mean.

[Hoopla]

I didn't pick gunsmith.

(I assume this would be obvious? Being first, I had the option of a much more powerful gunsmith in cop)

If you are town, that is.

[Hoopla]

Scum going for Gunsmith pick #1 isn't a bad choice. It blocks a good town role, whilst still providing a role-cop type role for scum.

[Hoopla]

Nice one, xvart. Still wouldn't mind confirmation from vollkan and chkflip, though.

[Hoopla]

Scum:
Hoopla?(I can't remember what it was, but I remember someone saying something about Hoopla that was really damning. Aside from the fact that she originally voted me for no reason at all I know that this is retarded, hence the question mark until I find what it was)

lol, ok.

[Hoopla]

Why are you lurking DGB? I'd have expected you to have more to say. Who else is scum?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla wanted to narrow down the Gunsmith and this is seriously anti-town

Here we go.

[Hoopla]

And Hoopla should know better, HooplaTOWN would have stepped back and said "well if Gandalf is scum he wouldn't claim vanilla to a role he DIDNT know was above him, so therefore there is no reason for us to have the top three above him claim."

So, you're saying if Gandalf is scum he must have a buddy higher up the chain than him? If so, don't you think getting the Gunsmith claim would be even more valuable to know?

Initially I read that quote as you saying Gandalf is town, because his move doesn't make sense as scum, and it's still kind of ambiguous. Is that true? Do you think Gandalf is town?

[Hoopla]

Don't fuck around Hoopla, my POINT is that YOU ARE SCUM.

Don't twist this around and ask ME questions.

YOU explain YOURSELF and why YOU started trying to get people above gandalf to claim gunsmith or not.

Your post really does imply you think Gandalf is town, though. If you think Gandalf is scum, you should have no qualms pushing for a Gunsmith claim that possibly hits two birds with one stone. So, I'll take you arguing this point as you thinking Gandalf is town...


...which is laughable.

[Hoopla]

What's the second bird?

The second bird was a rhetorical comment to showcase the stupidity of forcing an imposed train of thought onto someone (particularly given a complex, multiple possibility scenario);

And Hoopla should know better,

HooplaTOWN would have stepped back and said "well if Gandalf is scum he wouldn't claim vanilla to a role he
DIDNT know was above him

, so therefore there is no reason for us to have the top three above him claim."

I was pushing the argument using Fate's style of logic, hoping he would get the hint that his simple way of assuming someone's mindset, then falsely framing in it in a stupid dichotomy.... is.... stupid. Teaching via example is usually the best way to get a point across. So, we'll see what Fate has to say.

[Hoopla]

The second bird was a rhetorical comment to showcase the stupidity of forcing an imposed train of thought onto someone (particularly given a complex, multiple possibility scenario);

This does NOT adequately explain the second bird comment, as it assumes gandalf is scum and his buddy above him is the gunsmith, and that his buddy would CLAIM as such.

Goddamn, I hate arguing with you. You're so fucking tedious sometimes.

The only reason I "assume" this is because your initial post predetermined that is what I must have been thinking, so I am arguing from

that

perspective to show you how dumb your assumption was. You were the one that said Hoopla must have been thinking that, not I. Because I was not thinking that. In an ideal world, I'd be pushing a top 4 massclaim, but I already know how that's going to go down in this group of players.

[Hoopla]

Don't particularly buy it, though I guess it holds water. I think you wouldn't be as focused on teaching as scumhunting.

I'm experimenting with new ways to get through to Fate, because he's as thick as a brick sometimes when gets his little theories going in his head.

[Hoopla]

You're right, I shouldn't have tried getting a point across to you in a non-conventional way. I'll baby you by pandering to your short attention span next time.

I wanted the Gunsmith to claim because there is a high likelihood of at least one scum being in the top four, and going by previous games, two is probably the likeliest exact amount. The situation is to be considered based on what information each alignment knows. Scum know if Gandalf is scum, so lets look at it from their perspective. If Gandalf is scum with them, then they likely have the Gunsmith at a different pick, in which case a Gunsmith-claim situation doesn't give scum any more info. If Gandalf is town, scum already have it narrowed down to most likely 1 or 2 spots regardless (depending on how many scum are above a hypo-town-Gandalf), or it's possible scum are the Gunsmith themselves above Gandalf. Regardless, we don't give scum much information they don't already have, whilst giving town more (on par with what scum has or nearly has). And even if scum only have it narrowed down to a 1 in 2 chance, they probably have better roles to kill/fish for (aka, those vigs). The whole idea of claiming gunsmith is to give us information scum already likely have. It's a net gain for town.

The point I played devil's avocado with isn't actually a bad one too; if Gandalf flips scum (which seems to be on par with a coin flip), we've totally just missed the chance to lock their buddy into an active claim, either linking with Gandalf or setting him up to be a liar.

[Hoopla]

There are basically zero negative repurcussions of getting a gunsmith claim from the top four - as Jack said, scum already know good roles are up there. What does the scum gain, really? Compared to the town very little. I see a wide variety of linking and information reasons for town to get these claims, which I have already covered in detail.

When am I arrogant as scum, by the way?

[Hoopla]

Read post #386 which you seem to have been ignoring in lieu of your raging.

[Hoopla]

The entire reason for this disconnect is based on differing beliefs of Gandalf's alignment. You think he is town, so obviously claiming is less beneficial for town, whereas, I think it's likelier than not he is scum, meaning it's more beneficial to catch a scum claim this way. Regardless, if you believe Gandalf is town and chkflip is town, I have no idea why you're not wanting Guderian or vollkan dead, because surely the odds of scum being there trump whatever subjective scumtells you have on me.

If you want to vote me tomorrow, fine, but everyone voting outside of the top four is wasting their vote. We should be closing down neighbourhoods early.

[Hoopla]

I do like the Hoopla wagon though, Benmage still needs lynching, Gude is definite scum, but Hooplascum needs shutting down earlier than later as even with a less powerful role than other scum, as a player she's the most dangerous to town.

That's flattering, but what about if I'm town? Because surely, I do not exist as a mechanism to further scum win conditions regardless of my alignment. Do you mean my benefit to scum as scum is greater than my benefit to town as town?

[Hoopla]

I mean that you are scum, and that as scum, you are much more beneficial to scum's win condition than any of the other roles they may have at this moment in time, even if your role turns out to be just plain Mafia Goon.

Oh look, it's Fate 2.0.

[Hoopla]

If hoopla is scum, guderian is scum. If hoopla is town, guderian is scum. Wagoning hoopla makes no sense.

So I have to either read all that or switch to guderian. Are people seriously willing to argue that gandalf is town though?

Guderian is scum regardless, Hoopla is a much better player as Guderian and thus can direct scum better the longer she is alive. Dead Hooplascum as Mafia Goon is better for town day 1 than say, dead Guderian scum as Mafia Vig.

You're seriously arguing that a me-goon is more powerful than a scum double kill? You're fucking deluded. Awesome scum directing by me if Guderian/Gandalf are scum. IT'S GENIUS.

Seriously, you're just playing to my ego, saying I'm the scum mastermind, when in reality players like me gather a lot of attention reagrdless which is the exact opposite of what makes a successful scum player, particularly when the town is filled with people suffering from a hero complex, relishing the opportunity to take down the top dog. I know I get zero credit from bussing, and I know I will be scrutinised out of paranoia at some point in the game - there is literally no incentive for me to try and be the scum mastermind bussing my PR-scumbuddies, beyond ego, and frankly, I'd like to think I'm more modest than that, or at least sensible enough to know that gives me low odds of winning.

Again, I expect to be scrutinised, but your fear of me being scum is irrational, because I know I won't make it to endgame, either way. You have other shadows lurking around you who have better chances of winnng as scum.

[Hoopla]

Forgot to answer this;

1) Who was bringing up some "Giardia or vollkan" thing? I think someone was talking about that at one point.
2) Did Hoopla do this neighborhood thing in PPY3?

1) That was me.
2) Yes. Have a link. This was on D3. Every single one of my predictions were right, except the janitor being scum.

[Hoopla]

Why are you using WIFOM Hoopla?

"I'm only getting attention because I get attention anyway, so it would be a bad scum strategy to have me as scum" huh? You don't pick whether you're scum, and if you were extra quiet this game it would definitely be picked up on, so you had no choice but to give it all you had to show you were on town's side. Leaving the above quote to be pure WIFOM.

It's wifom, but there are still very rational, logical undertones to what I say. The take-away point from that post is that I know I won't make it to endgame, so bussing my buddies is fucking stupid if I'm going to wind up dead at some point. There's no point doing something if it nets me no gain. You could argue that I net this wifom defense as a gain, but is that worth it?

Of course not, and I know it doesn't work. It happened to me in PYP3 where I was lynched as town. My defense was based on me-scum playing in an illogical way;

Also, do you seriously think if I were scum I'd let my team get into this position so early in the game, and choose such roles? I would never take the vigs if I had two top 5 draft picks - there's so many more better role combinations, especially ones safer to a potential massclaim that give more outs.

Read between the lines Hoopla.

I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. YOU'VE BEEN TOO HONEST THIS GAME.

There was zero incentive for me to make the idiotic role choices that the scum did that game if you want to brand me with the scum mastermind tag, yet I was still lynched out of paranoia that game. There is also zero incentive for me to try and play the role I did in PYP2, because I know it doesn't work now that I've developed a reputation for it, and I expect to die at some stage. There are varying degrees of wifom - the initial coinage of the term was based on an event with relatively equal odds of being true. I don't think the pay-off for me being scum in the last game was equivalent - it was very irrational for scum-Hoopla to make such role choices, but aha! that is what she wants you to think. And when you think that way, you give it relatively equal odds of being true, rather than recognising that deliberately making an irrational/suboptimal choice should be judged on a sliding scale of probability.

Yes, I could bus my entire team. Yes, I could make super irrational role-choices for my scumteam, JUST so I can have people think "well, Hoopla wouldn't do that!". But it just doesn't work. Because I know people don't get this and won't give you credit proportional to the unlikelihood of you doing it as scum. They will still suspect me using behavioural tells, when something empirically irrational/illogical for me to do surfaces. And that subjective tell shouldn't eclipse a situation where it makes zero sense for me to do something as scum. I have better ways of improving my chances of winning if I indeed get dealt the hand of scum, rather than box myself into a super irrational position, just so I can have a defense against it.

This game isn't quite there yet, as we have no scumflips, but I still maintain my play doesn't give me the best odds of winning as scum, purely because I know I'll always garner a decent amount of suspicion if I'm alive. Don't discount something as wifom - the whole game is wifom, for fuck sake. The whole game is about predicting if someone would do something as town or scum. Every single tell is subject to this framework, but we do our best to weasel out the best bets during the game. And I strongly put forward I am not the best bet.

[Hoopla]

We should be closing down neighbourhoods early.

I think this is a bit off-base. We should be lynching the scummiest candidates and using the information all deaths give us to close down the 'hoods. For example, lynching a X=6 scum is far more valuable to the town than lynching scum in the Fab Four; we potentially create a bloc of four town in the X=6 group.

Right, but the only reason why it's so much more valuable is because there's long-odds of it being true. You can play roulette and gamble on zero if you want, but the pay-off whilst big, won't happen very often at all. And I'd suggest the pay-off isn't really proportionate to the wager when you consider scum have done better than random each time. Knowing 5 different draft numbers will always produce better than average results for scum in the long-run (if they choose unique numbers). In the bottom half (12-22) in the last two PYP's, there have only been 3 scum in 22 players. Those odds suck. This is the house edge showing.

Spoiler: Drafts

PYP 2:

1)

Socrates (12,1)

2)

Fate (13,4)

3)

bouncy.bouncy (2,1)

4)

Cobalt (2,10)

5)

RayFrost (4,6)

6)

Redcoyote (4,9)

7)

Jack (7,2)

8)

FeFiFoFum (7,11)

9)

StrangerCoug (3,1)

10)

The1fifi (3,7)

11)

wolframnhart (3,7)

12)

Devotress (8,3)

13)

Porkens (8,9)

14)

DocPotter (8,10)

15)

Ellibereth (1,2)

16)

Dramonic (1,1)

17)

Hoopla (1,1)

18)

TonyMontana (1,1)

19)

Farside (6,3)

20)

curiouskarmadog (6,12)

21)

Pomegranate (6,4)

22)

Faraday (6,4)

PYP 3:

1)

sorasgoof (2,12)

2)

Pomegranate (10,1)

3)

Sando (11,7)

4)

Porkens (12,3)

5)

Dramonic (13,7)

6)

SerialClergyman (1,1)

7)

manho (1,1)

8)

Socrates (3,6)

9)

Zoiaum (3,6)

10)

Ellibereth (5,4)

11)

Drippinggoofball (5,15)

12)

superawesomemegapimp (6,1)

13)

Budja (6,2)

14)

Fate (7,3)

15)

Parama (7,11)

16)

PranaDevil (4,5)

17)

CryMeARiver (4,7)

18)

12keyblade (4,8)

19)

Zang (9,2)

20)

Faraday (9,4)

21)

Hoopla (9,9)

22)

mb53 (9,15)

Interestingly enough, Hoopla is in the X=6 'hood.

Not really, though...

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla- I have a few concerns. Are you willing to accept that some circumstances may be different between games (for instance, the one I outlined above)? Because I see you as wanting to treat this like the same formulaic PYP game with a few role differences rather then its own unique game (although related, different).

ARE YOU FOR REAL? THE WHOLE POINT OF GETTING SPYREX TO CONFIRM SCUM COULD COORDINATE PREGAME WAS TO PROVE TO YOU!!! THAT THIS GAME IS EXACTLY LIKE THE LAST TWO PYP GAMES.

SAJIN:

UM YEAH, YOUR THEORIES ARE GOOD IF THIS WAS LIKE THE OTHER PYP'S, BUT IT'S NOT UGVHGHGHGH

HOOPLA:

DUDE, THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME, SCUM COULD PLAN PREGAME IF THEY WISHED

SAJIN:

HOOPLES I SEROISULY DOUBT THAT

SPYREX:

SCUM COULD PLAN PREGAME. THE QUICKTOPIC WAS ACTIVE FROM THE SIGNUP THREAD.

SAJIN:

UGHGHG CIRCUMSTANCES ARE DIFFERENT. I DOUBT THEY HAD TIME TO CHAT.


Want some proof that scum were probably chatting pregame?

November 21, 1:42PM:

As the answers are both yes, Zodiark fills it out.

I'll send a poke to whomever hasn't got me numbers.

November 22, 1:37AM:

Just waiting for a few more numbers.

November 22, 9:00PM:

Numbers are all in!

Tonight at 11 PM PST I'll have the draft order up.

You have until then to change numbers.

That's a good 34 hours from the last sign-up to when all the numbers were in and couldn't be changed. This doesn't even include the time during the rest of sign-ups where some of the scum could have been talking and planning. Before you ask, you receive your alignment as you as /in and send numbers. Three scum could have been talking in the QT together by the time 12 people had signed up.



CONCLUSION: SCUM WERE VERY LIKELY COLLUDING PREGAME. JUST FINALLY ADMIT IT'S REAL, BECAUSE YOUR ARGUMENTS SUCK. THE DRAFT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE LAST ONES. SCUM ARE IN THE TOP 4.

[Hoopla]

Just iso this guy.

VOTE: chkflip

Hey DGB, what do you think about my thoughts on chkflip being town?

Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;

OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?

This is a particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.

Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;

Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.

This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.

[Hoopla]

Holy shit, I think Gundian just nailed the scumteam!

[Hoopla]

The outcome might not be completely horrible, but the methodology is laughable;

Now bear with me. Something about gandalfs 'three adhd's or whatever' seemed to ring through. *cue calls of buddying.* Something about his posts seemed sincere. So for now I am going to eliminate 12 from this list.

In my mind, benmage has been acting scummy. The numbers fit So, ben is in as well. thats two scum. Now, scum want to space out a bit, to ensure optimal placement.

Come onnnnnn Llama....

~ it gets better;

Now, in previous games, scum have ALWAYS gone for 1,2. I see no reason this game would be different.

Ergo, volkan is one of the scum. It also bodes well for this case that his y numbers is not a one.

Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10

Not too sure about this one. Will need more time, but my best guess would be from the 10 'neighborhood'.

with this, here is my scum team
volkan
benmage
chk
hoopla/le cupcake
rabies/iam

I will happily join a bandwagon on any of these people. I will not join a bandwagon, or support in the slightest, one on anyone else. And the fact chk has done nothing but come in and randomly vote me is pretty scumtastic from my point of view.

unvote

vote: chkflip

It's funny that he deduces vollkan must be scum, yet puts his vote elsewhere. It's funny that he is not completely sure who is scum in the top numbers, has a guess, then decides he will not support any other bandwagon than the ones he chose. I seriously don't even know why I'm typing this all out, because it's obvious he's just pulling this from his ass, because he feels like this is what is expected of him (it isn't). Is it scummy? Maybe. Although, it looks more like a newbie under pressure trying to figure out what the right thing to say is, and then say it, even if he doesn't get it.

[Hoopla]

I told you who they were. Which part of my post is not completely sure.

Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10

Not too sure about this one. Will need more time, but my best guess would be from the 10 'neighborhood'.

Seems dumb to lock in on a short list of players at the end of your post when your logic is on par with "hmm, 10 sounds about right". Just saying.

[Hoopla]

I brought this up earlier when DGB was stating her scumread on chkflip, which she ignored. It seems relevent to bring it up again now;

Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;

OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?

This is particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.

Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;

Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.

This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.

His self-implosion the last few pages has been bizarre, and ordinarilly I would find it scummy, but this behaviour can be exhibited by inexperienced/immature town and scum, no matter how much like scum it looks like. If anything, it more illustrates how detached and unfamiliar he is with MS culture, which makes his posts in the queue thread seem even more town.

[Hoopla]

I'm trying to "pull" the rope on lynching scums, and you are scum. That much I am

100% positive

of, same with Benmage.

Hoopla and chkflip cannot be scum together after that atrocious wagon dive by chkflip, which also shows Gandalf as scum.

Thus, 4 of the 5 scum are:
Guderian, Gandalf, Benmage, chkflip

Um, there is no way you are 100% positive. (I did the bolding.) There are people that I think are scum, and there are people you think are scum- but shut up and stop saying that you're positive, because you (and we) know you aren't.

I agree 100% (hah) with Pom. What are you playing at Prana? I don't remember you being this irrationally aggressive, well, ever. New playstyle you're trying out? I always remember you as a little more passive than this. Also, what do you think about my post clearing chkflip?

[Hoopla]

But Guderian is scum, and whether Pom likes it or not, I'm still 100% positive of that.

The only way you are 100% positive is if you're scum with him. Or maybe you're still learning the ropes and haven't come across a situation where your super strong read has been wrong. It'll happen one day, and it's so frustrating when it does.

[Hoopla]

Looks like my hand has been forced. Hoopla will have to wait until tomorrow.

unvote
VOTE: Benmage

The only reason your hand has been forced is because you'll take whatever lynch you can get that isn't you.

[Hoopla]

I was just thinking that. Hoopla-scum means that we'd literally have to throw out any ideas we had about choosing of numbers.

Why isn't Hoopla dead yet?

Like, seriously. We all know that Guderian and Benmage are her scumbuddies. Why do they need to be lynched first?

Why do you think a Hoopla/Guderian/Benmage combination is likely given your first quote?

[Hoopla]

So, that's one scum down from the top four. Who's the other? Vollkan or Guderian?

I have some good ideas for today, but I have to go to work now. Investigating the momentum (especially the collapse and swing to Ben's wagon) of Gandalf's wagon should be our key focus today.

[Hoopla]

Hooplan wantingthe gunsmith to claim woulda narrowed kit down to volkan, instead scum shot chk...

Though I wouldn't be sjrprised if chk got town bullets and scum missed the nk HARDY HAR

MY MASTER PLAN OF GETTING MY BUDDY LYNCHED TO NARROW DOWN THE GUNSMITH WORKED. GREAT SUCCESS! VIRTUAL ROOTBEERS ALL ROUND IN THE SCUM QT!

[Hoopla]

I'm confirmed town, hell yeah. Well, I want to make the most of it while I'm alive. I hope now that you all know I am sincere my number analysis will be taken more seriously, since the possibility of me manipulating you with it has been removed. I have a couple of thoughts about where the rest of the scum is.

It is highly likely that Gandalf was truthful about the Gunsmith claim, which means vollkan is quite likely to be town. The only other way Gandalf could possibly have been vanilla, is if he attempted to go for the role Guderian went for, and then Gandalf is scum with vollkan, but this is incredibly unlikely. It makes you wonder why scum has opted to go for the Gunsmith claim - to me, it is very plausible scum opted for a strategy of not taking vigs/cop, making the Gunsmith a more viable claim. The main reason why you wouldn't go for vig/cop is if you didn't have control over the first couple of picks, and thought these were the likeliest roles to be taken. I think if scum had picks 1 and 3, going for Gunsmith would have been a poor choice, and slightly irrational when you would probably be wanting to take out other gun-roles. I don't think Guderian is scum.

If this is true, that vollkan and Guderian aren't scum, that would mean no scum chose 1, 2 and 4 as their X number. I think it's quite unlikely a scumteam would go into a draft with their lowest number being a 5, purely on the basis that when fabricating randomness, you tend to favour a wider spread then what true randomness really is. It would feel unnatural to go with all mid-range/high numbers. I think the only way a strange set of numbers would have been picked is if someone familiar with number analysis (and believes in it) is leading the scumteam (Jack is most likely). But I doubt Jack is going to be scum, given his experience of being scum in PYP2. He knows how easy it is for scum to swap roles when fakeclaiming - I doubt he would have made Gandalf claim VT unless he's in a scumteam stripped of any real power.

Back to the original point - unless there is someone particularly canny at the helm of this scumteam, I find it exceedingly unlikely that scum would have gone into the draft with their lowest number being 5, hence, one of the scum is sitting on the number 3 (Ben, SS). I think Ben is significantly less likely to be scum, given his vote being planted on Gandalf almost all day, coupled with the fact he was the alternate wagon being pushed when Gandalf's wagon collapsed. I'd be quite surprised if Benmage is scum, because I think these points are very strong.

Slowsilver was one of the few that jumped shipped to Benmage throughout the day, and whilst I initially gave him town points for a couple of his posts in the queue thread, those tells don't outweigh Ben's towniness, nor do they outweigh the likelihood of Guderian and vollkan being town. I wouldn't mind hearing everyone else's thoughts on my number predictions - do you think scum would have gone into the draft with 5 being their lowest possible number? What do you think about my other eliminations?

VOTE: Slowsilver

[Hoopla]

Vollkan, claim your Gunsmith result.

The Andrius wagon is really dumb, considering there are 5 different players on the number 6. It's already decently unlikely he is scum, and if he is, we can catch him with our powerroles later. We should be closing down neighbourhoods now that we have confirmed/semi-confirmed innocents. That is making it a lot easier.

[Hoopla]

Yeah I said it. Hoopla is scum and she's pushing an agenda and that AGENDA is gandalf and THATS why Im not keen on his lynch.

Her REACTIONS to being called scum are classic scum Hoopla:

YES I AM IMPLYING GANDALF IS TOWN.

WHAT ARE YOU IMPLYING, THE HE IS SCUM AND HIS BUDDY ABOVE HIM PICKED GUNSMITH?

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING?

Just quoting this all in a post for when I need quick examples of Fate's wrongness and paranoia for future games.

Actually, quick question Fate. What happened from you believing Gandalf was town to you dropping the L-2 vote on him (without reason)? You never really explained that.

[Hoopla]

Vollkan, claim your Gunsmith result.

He hasn't got one, he said so twice that he never sent in an action.

Oh okay. Lame.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - you originally opened D2 with the assumption that either Guderian or Volkkan was scum. Why vote outside of those two? I completely support the SlowSilver vote, but was the interactions with the gandalf wagon enough to off set the 50:50 shot based on the numbers theory?

I changed my mind based on the scum motivation to go for Gunsmith in the third spot. And I don't know why you would unless you were going for a no vigs/cop strategy. I'd be in favour of Guderian claiming, because I think knowing the draft order of the top 4 would be pretty insightful, as far as working out what scum's motivation/draft strategy was.

[Hoopla]

Wall of text...hoopla...errg.

Scum picked in 1-4 and ben is prob town, the rest will take some figuring.

I had some crazy idea about scum having gunsmith lower down and gandalf claiming to have gone for it and then scum killing chkflip so vollkan could be "confirmed" as gunsmith while actually being vig or something, but I can't make sense of it.

That's a very elaborate scheme - plausible, but it would take some extreme cunning to pull that off. I don't think it's a very viable consideration.

I think I'm comfortable with ruling Guderian and vollkan as town - to the point where I'm decently confident SlowSliver will flip scum.

[Hoopla]

I don't think Guderian is scum, but he should still claim regardless, because he is going to constantly be suspected. Plus I think his role information will help learn what scum's pregame strategy could have been.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, explain your reasoning clearing vollk and guderian to me.

I haven't "cleared" them in the traditional sense. But the fact that Gandalf has flipped Vanilla means that at least one must be town, as there is little reason to waste such a high pick otherwise. Gandalf claimed Gunsmith - we either look at it as he is lying, or he is truthful.

If Gandalf is lying about the role he aimed for, how did he know a Gunsmith was above him to prove the claim? The only real reason is that if vollkan and Gandalf are scum together. But for this to be true, it means Gandalf must have tried for Guderian's role, which is a far less likely scenario than the most obvious one of vollkan-town Gunsmith and Gandalf actually trying for Gunsmith. The only way for vollkan to be scum is through an elaborate scum gambit where scum have picked up Gunsmith lower done and have done some role shuffling. In which case, well done, it's a brave play to do so early as there are a bunch of roles that can still catch you. But we shouldn't be thinking in paranoid off-chances.

If we believe Gandalf's VT-Gunsmith claim to be true, it raises questions as to why scum were going for that role with their third pick. If scum had, say the 1st and 3rd pick (which is the only

real

possibility I see of vollkan/Guderian) - what use is going for Gunsmith there, when you should probably be taking one of the vigs, if not in first spot, the third one. Realistically, what other role would scum possibly go for if they had first pick? Cop or Vig is the only rational choice, when you go by previous PYP's and the relatively weaker roles on offer this game. So, if we're to assume scum were to pick one of these roles, what motivation do scum have going for Gunsmith in 3rd spot when they're taking one of the gun roles? I can see a strategy of Cop 1st, Gunsmith 3rd to shut down town investigation power, but other than that, there aren't many scenarios where Gunsmith 3rd makes sense when you have a higher pick.

It's likelier in my eyes, that scum's highest pick was 3rd, and they went for Gunsmith purely because they wanted to be able to vig/cop hunt knowing they were likely going to miss out on most or all of those roles.

Again, there's a chance Guderian is scum, and even an outside chance of vollkan scum, but I think both of those players (particularly vollkan) are more of a risk lynch-wise, than taking a potshot at one of the 3's. Perhaps "clearing" them was false wording (I don't remember if I said that), but rather, they're a low percentage play. I think the psychology behind scum probably choosing a number 1-4 as a function of simulating randomness and spreading out well, is solid. We should be lynching slowsilver.

[Hoopla]

I know Gudes role. I don't see a need for him to claim.

vote slowsilver

Well, since you're pretty much claiming role-cop, give me a list of roles you wouldn't want Guderian claiming right now. And I'll tell you which ones will be handy to know right now, because I don't trust your judgement.

[Hoopla]

I know Gudes role. I don't see a need for him to claim.

vote slowsilver

Well, since you're pretty much claiming role-cop, give me a list of roles you wouldn't want Guderian claiming right now. And I'll tell you which ones will be handy to know right now, because I don't trust your judgement.

I already claimed VT....come on hoopla deduction, how could I know Gudes role?

Oh right, you went for Gunsmith as well. I forgot.

[Hoopla]

. (Hint hint, wasn't gunsmith or obviously cop)

Swing and a miss.

That was a joke - I realised what you meant. For what it's worth, based on what I know, if you both went for Odd-Night-Vig, then it makes slowsilver probably scum.

[Hoopla]

Anyone voting slowsilver gets scumpoints. You people are just lynching the always-scummy players it seems. And I'm pretty damn sure silver is town this game.

LOL

[Hoopla]

To what do you refer LL?

pom, I highly doubt after picking weak doc that you can say with certainty that inhim is scum, or even put him close to the top of your list.

Shh, you're ruining Llama's trap.

[Hoopla]

PYP games always get half super active players and half lurkers. It's strange.

[Hoopla]

YAY modkill. I was probably going to go after Rabies/Ellibereth next anyway - close down the 5's.

[Hoopla]

IAUN is about to be modkilled as well...

And Sajin.

Quadruple hammer (slow, rabies, IAU, sajin) would be fun. I would not really be opposed to throwing down a vote that takes out basically all of my secondary scum reads.

Holy shit, we could win the game on D2. Seriously, none of those players being modkilled I would call town.

[Hoopla]

Slowsilver is scum jailkeeper.

[Hoopla]

Inhim was killed by scum. Parama was the Even-Night-Vig kill.

VOTE: Ellibereth

[Hoopla]

No need to massclaim today, as scum's hand is still forced on either myself or vollkan. Town info roles get another shot at information (guaranteed), rather than giving scum a priority list now. I think we should keep the watcher hidden to protect myself/vollkan.

[Hoopla]

I have no interest in an Ellie lynch today.

I have interest in a mass claim and a nailing of scum and a clean sweep.

Why are people not saying YEAH LETS MC? Or NO NOT YET?

Disconcerting

I've already given adequate reason to not massclaim. The benefits to massclaiming tomorrow are far greater, as all our PR's get one more round of information, with very minimal risk of losing it, with scum also not knowing what exists. We get this information guaranteed because we have two choices, myself/vollkan who need to be killed. It is definitely in the town's interest to keep the watcher hidden for one more night.

[Hoopla]

If we're to believe Gandalf was the highest scum pick, which I do, we have to look at the possible numbers scum could have chosen for their whole team. It's a reasonably safe assumption to assume one is in the 6's, but other than that, Ellibereth town means that scum would have chosen 3 of their X numbers over 10, unless Guderian is scum, there are two scum in the 6's, or Llama is the inverter. I don't think any of those situations are likely.

Scum's numbers were probably 3, 5, 6, 12 and another high number, rather than being 3, 6, 11, 12, 13 (for example) - the only exception to this rule is if Jack is scum, as he's the only one here other than me who is savvy enough to realise the importance of number analysis, and would do something strange to mess with it. I'm not abandoning my belief Elli is scum based on a chance Jack is though, because I think Jack is more likely town.

Another thing that points in the Elli direction, is based on the (presumably) top two role choices scum picked. Notice the lack of vig attempts - this might be a direct compensating from Elli's previous game as scum in PYP3, where the scumteam decided to take a fleet of vigs, which backfired spectacularly. I could see a scumteam with Elli in it, given these picks.

[Hoopla]

I'm savvy enough to mess with numbers, what the fuck?

You're not really, insofar as you don't value number analysis as a viable enough scumhunting method to do something extraordinary as scum to fuck with it.

[Hoopla]

or Llama is the inverter.

Just before I head off. The inverter picks a target. Anyone could be the inverter and pick anyone else to use the ability on. Which is the main reason I went for the choices I did. They were highly unlikely to have the inverter ability being used on them.

Hmmm. Yes.

[Hoopla]

I'm not saying you're a bad player - I'm saying you have different priorities to me. If you want to bring your name back into the ring for explanations why an Elli town-flip happened, then that's fine.

[Hoopla]

Wait I just re-checked, why can't Cupcake be scum?

If he is that's only TWO scum with high number picks, which is likely.

He could be, but there are a lot of players with high numbers. There are not a lot of possible players with not-high numbers, or not 6's. My theory is that there's not three in the high numbers, or not two in the 6's.

[Hoopla]

I'm not completely opposed to a Cupcake lynch. I was thinking about this game in the shower this morning - I think Jack has a point, that 10, 12, 13 or something similar is a perfectly viable set of numbers for scum to pick, particularly if they're familiar with previous PYP games and that such high numbers general make the top half of the table due to being unique/or only having one repetition.

Of the high numbers, Cupcake is by far the best choice. If Fate is Role-cop and Elli is Neighborizer, then I think it's probable they're both town. I'm also down with netting a modkill on Sajin - he's in the top two scummiest players in the 6's (with Andrius).

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Le Cupcake

[Hoopla]

Fate, there is no way benmage is scum.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jack

[Hoopla]

"Poked" by Spy.
I will catch up.
Won't be today though.

Won't be ever. Just take the modkill.


Humm. I'm bored.

[Hoopla]

I'm voting scum. I voted scum the last two days. I'm doing my bit.


I'll bring my A-game when it actually needs to be brought.

[Hoopla]

Fate, can you wait for me? I have some thoughts....

[Hoopla]

From my perspective, Jack flipping scum makes adds a deeper level of wifom to the number/role picking strategy, as he is one of the few players intimately familiar with inner mechanics of the PYP games. He's also been prone to lurking and taking an apathetic stance as scum though, as he did in the Large Normal game I ran earlier this year, where he played quite poorly. It could be tied directly with interest, but I feel having (at least) two weak/new players on your scumteam would give him more influence in the scumteam's decisions. I'll get back to this point later in my post.

Scum choosing to kill the Gunsmith over the Cop says three things to me; they're confident Prana won't be believed, they're fearing a watcher or they've got the Inverter role, which effectively acts as a Godfather. It could be a combination of all three, but I'd say the watcher fear/Invertor role would be more influential in making such a decision. I'm very confident in clearing PranaDevil as town based on two reasons; Guderian, a confirmed watcher, has proven Prana to be where he claimed to be investigating, which almost guarantees he is a cop. It could be argued he is a scum cop, but when you look at the reasons for picking this role as scum, it makes no sense for scum to go for it that low down. The reason to pick cop as scum is to block town getting it, in which case, going for it higher up the list makes much more sense. I'm mildly confident scum have an inverter, in which case, it is likely to be Llama or one of the 6's, I feel.

Le Cupcake is a town Vigilante, as going for the vig that low down is a very big risk, which if they really wanted it, have at least two higher picks to go for it. Why go for it there when it's likely to be gone? It's not a scum play at all, even with Jack at the helm. Before anyone cites PYP2 where scum picked up vig as the 7th pick, circumstances were completely different. There was only one vig - it was clearly the most powerful role, and scum owned the first pick. It was a safe assumption that number 1 would go for it from a town perspective, so it was equally safe to let it drop. Less so here, as either of the vigs (particularly the weaker one - Even night) could reasonably be taken from any of the the top 10 picks. I'm quite confident Cupcake is town, and should be shooting one of the unconfirmed 6's.

Benmage is still obviously town, for confirming Gude's role, being on a low doubled up number with scum, and being on every scum lynch. I'm less sure of Ellibereth, but I'm defering to others' belief of him to be town for now - I don't think he'd pick the same number/role as scum, particularly when scum's strategy this game has been to block and stop town roles.

~~

The beauty of this situation is, we get another shot from our cop, unless scum want to surrender a one-for-one trade with the watcher.

Bolding this bit for Guderian; please watch Prana, incase that wasn't obvious enough already

. We have another shot from the Cupcake vig who can whittle down the 6's. We force scum to kill Guderian or Cupcake, meaning we'll still have myself and Prana as innocents tomorrow, with obv-townies Benmage and Pomegranate still alive. I think the only thing that prevents this from being an obvious sweep is the possibility of an Inverter role, but we can address these fears tomorrow if we don't hit scum now or tonight. If we do hit scum now, I think we should enough regardless.

I'm content with Andrius/DGB kills - I wouldn't be opposed to iamausername, but we can deal with him tomorrow if we don't hit scum in the 6's. I might have some more to say after work...

[Hoopla]

I can't see a potential scumteam here without

at least

one of the 6's being scum. We can wipe through three of them by tomorrows lynch without much damage to the town at all.

[Hoopla]

I'm content with Andrius/DGB kills

But do you think I'm scum? Make a case against me if you do.

You're in the 6's. There is at least one scum in there, possibly two - we know this largely due to process of elimination. Pom has a cop investigation on her - I could see reasoning for switching iam with you or Andrius, but it doesn't really faze me either way. That's the case. You can't do anything about it - sorry. Take one for the team.

[Hoopla]

Since you seem to be the resident Jack expert Hoopla, what do you think of "At least two of Eli/Fate/Cupcake/Prana are scum" thing?

What I have picked up off him shows that he really wanted to avoid looking in the 6s for scum, but that really doesnt give much apart from what is already widely assumed of "at least one six is scum".

I do think looking through him that cupcake/prana are slightly more likely to be town however then I had cupcake at earlier.

How could you even explain a scumteam with Prana or Cupcake on it? I'd love to know. Because it makes no sense for me.

Jack wanting to steer clear of the 6's was subtle and only said outright once or twice - I think his buddies have doubled up there possibly, or if not, the one scum there is the scummiest one in that bunch. It'd definitely be in his interest to defend/detract attention away from the 6's. I don't even think wifom is a defense for this, as bussing the buddies down there is really not a sensible play. Besides, the gaps are closing for where scum can actually be.

DGB's "make a case against me" post is classic scum caught by process of elimination but wants to get into a debate to make it not seem that way. Take the hit DGB. I feel like you'd be more willing to take one for the team if you were town.

[Hoopla]

To fuck with scum.

Such as yourself who apparently knows FOR REAL whether scum have it or not.
VOTE: Xvart

Case closed. Your Jackvote was some textbook bussing too

I don't think Jack/xvart sharing the same number as scumbuddies is likely. I think ringleader-Jack would most likely designate two other players in the team as number-sharing buddies, rather than taking it himself. Besides, if a double-up is to occur it's more likely to have happened in the 6's. Xvart is just silly.

[Hoopla]

Btw hoopla the only flaw in your analysis is that they killed the gunsmith over the cop because he was confirmed townroleblocked by scumJack who was flipping

The only flaw in your game is that you post way too often. Actually, there are others, but I digress...

[Hoopla]

I'LL EXPLAIN IT TOMORROW. DON'T WORRY GUYS.

[Hoopla]

(btw hoopla, are you an aussie too? If so, yay!)

no.

[Hoopla]

Seriously? Nice. This means I didn't vote for a townie the entire game.

VOTE: Nachomamma

[Hoopla]

Were you happy with what your gambits achieved? I don't think anyone got any info from them...

[Hoopla]

Strange game - a pretty lacklustre performance from scum. Being so far ahead as town from Day 3 onward kind of sucked the life out of the game, and made it a little unfun, to the point where I wasn't motivated to find scum. It's hard to say how much influence the numbers/role distribution had, or if the big win was due to the performances of each team - I think the game could have been so much different if we lynched, say, Guderian on D1 and lost our watcher, rather than scum going down to 4 players early. I expected a little more creativity, particularly with a Jack/Elli/DGB scumteam - it's a shame it fizzled out so quickly, because I think the roles on offer gave plenty of scope to creating false-confirmations, or clever framing of townies.

I'm curious to know how much effort the scum put into their pregame strategy, because I think it was an unusual set of rolechoices really.

[Hoopla]

Were you happy with what your gambits achieved? I don't think anyone got any info from them...

Would've worked wonders if Cupcake was scum, agreed?

No. Because I had no idea what you were trying to do and what anything you were saying meant. There's no point gambiting to catch someone if nobody cares/follows/is convinced by what you're doing. It seemed unnecessarily reckless from my perspective. Scum are the ones that like muddying the waters with nonsense, not townies.

[Hoopla]

It is a PYP tradition for Pom to lurk though.

[Hoopla]

I wonder if the draft process was modified somehow that would change the methodical nature of the number theory. I know some people really dig that but from my perspective I felt like I was just waiting for orders all game.

It's only methodical because scum are methodical and suck at planning.

[Hoopla]

So Hoopla, what would you think about a scum team not coordinating their number selection pre game and only coordinating the role picking after the draft was announced? Do you think that would have had any merit? In this game, I don't think it would have hurt since the scum was obliterated, but would any natural advantage to planning out number selection be negated by completely being random occurrence?

If scum submitted their numbers in a truly random manner, then there is a very real chance they could double up unwittingly - it almost happened this game, but Jack changed Zodiark's numbers for him, because they were doubling up with Gandalf's numbers. I think there are ways to get around number analysis and use it to your advantage as scum - myself, Jack, Faraday and Socrates did in PYP2 quite effectively, though it was taken less seriously back then.

As a general rule, the more methodical and predictable a type of analysis becomes, the easier it becomes to dodge it or manipulate it in ways favourable for your scumteam. I think it'll only take one game of the numbers being wrong and causing a string of mislynches for that type of play to self-correct and become less prevalent. For the last two games, scumteams have been behind the curve and have been trapped. Other games operate in a similar manner in regards to scumtells - an ongoing arms race, with scum and town trying to be one move ahead. I think that mechanic is just a lot more obvious in these games, as it's been the go-to thing for analysis, when in other games, there aren't many tells or forms of analysis which are more dominant than the others.

Once scum figure out counter-strategies for number analysis, the game will open up and fall back on the reservoir of behavioural tells we normally rely on in other games. I think that's a game or two away, though. I also don't think random selection is a very good way of beating number analysis...

[Hoopla]

HEY HOOPLA, now that its all said and done: was I wrong or RIGHT that you wanting the gunsmith to claim was anti-town?

I don't think it would have made much of a difference either way.

Also read your ISO from the last game, where you were town, and compare it to here.


My paranoia was justified.

That's what you get for operating under a sample size of one, I suppose. If you're going to use meta to make your decisions, do it properly.

[Hoopla]

They killed chkflip N1, not Volkan.

Re-reading the qt Im not sure why they did that, but yeah I think it would've made a difference.

I gave a pretty lengthy explanation for my motives somewhere on Day 2, which covers pretty much everything. I don't know why you want to debate this now, but if you do, go respond to that instead.