PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[inHimshallibe]

Of course you'd start this on Thanksgiving.

[inHimshallibe]

@Hoopla- I agree your theories would be awesome for previous PYPs. But this one may be different.

Sorry I do not automatically buy that scum could coordinate numbers in the draft. Its highly questionable to me whether scum were able to coordinate number picks.

SPYREX: Were scum able to talk in the QT/change numbers if they wished during the sign-up and draft phase?

Yes. Any players could change their numbers before the draft time. Scum QT was activated upon signup. (this is true for ALL PYPS)

So, what do we do now?

Your lack of Guderian-vote by this point is now horrendous.

vote: Guderian

[inHimshallibe]

Um, so thoughts, thoughts, thoughts... I didn't realize how dumb my Y was until after the draft order was released.

Parama is probably scum. I get the feeling there is someone in his list that he is trying to protect. Hoopla's breakdown of the neighborhoods was very useful, but not voting Guderian because of vollkan is a bit befuddling. If scum thought they might as well go for broke with a (1,1) submission, (2,1) would certainly be reasonable insurance. The thing is, if there were two X=1 submissions, we wouldn't be talking about Guderian at all. Hmmm...

I think it's not helpful in the slightest to discuss number selections at the moment; we should be scumhunting much more so in the manner of Fate, using Hoopla analysis to lock a case down, and not using the number analysis to

begin

a case.

[inHimshallibe]

Benmage makes my brain ache. Actively ache.

[inHimshallibe]

Okay, look at the voting patterns at the start of the game.
*snip*
There's just no way these posts are coming from a town player. It's ridiculous how scummy this guy is, even without the voting patterns of the thread.

snip mine

K, sorry Parama, you're town. Incredibly town post.

[inHimshallibe]

ok, I checked the other pick your power games

#3 3/5 unique numbers scum
#2 1/2 unique numbers scum
#1 2/4 unique numbers scum (keep in mind there were two mafia groups here)

So I take back my previous point, it is HIGHLY likely that in the four unique numbers we have in this game, two are scum. (The actual percentage is over 50%) But, I can make this a lot easier. I know I am town, so 2/3 of these people are more than likely to be scum:

1. volkan
2. chkflip
3. gandalf

It might even be more benficial to force all four of us to claim, and examine the picks. Some roles will definitely make more sence from a scum side v. a town side. In this way, we could potentially wipe out 40% of the scum team over day 1 and 2. (or potentially day 1/ night)

With these numbers in mind, I reread the other three people.

I have ordered them in order of scumminess:
Gandalf
chk
volk

Why?

Gandalf:

Oh, and Hoopla had such sound reasoning behind most of her post up until then. Why exactly are we voting for me?

nervous?

Oh wow. Pretty much what Pom said.

VOTE: slowsilver

sheeping.

I had a big post responding to the case against me and agreeing with the case against Guderian

there was a case against you and me? I think it was based more off number selection. Look defensive.
You then proceed to answer WHY you dont have the case instead of posting the case!

chk:

Retry:
- 3] I think it's likelier for scum to double up on a choice that they think is more sound than others.

looks like diversion tactics

- (9,5) were the first numbers that popped into my head. Completely random

were they really?

volk:

With the other two above him, he falls to the bottom. His posts look sound so far, I cant see anything that would push him too heavily one way or the other.

with all this in mind

Vote: Gandalf5166

I am not convinced of the sincerity of the alleged scumhunting in this post. I read it as "grief you guys are making pretty legit points about me being scum, and oh hell I

am

scum, so ohmigod I need to whip something up after the fact." That you were so slow to come to your senses is the most telling part of all this.

[inHimshallibe]

I like investigative roles, but figured cop would already be taken.

WAIT. YOU CLAIMED YOUR PREDECESSOR WENT FOR GUNSMITH. NOT YOURSELF.

[inHimshallibe]

I'm a VT.

Is it a good idea for me to claim what my predecessor tried for

, since scum could figure out that one of the people above me must have that role?

I like investigative roles, but figured cop would already be taken.

UNVOTE:
UNVOTE: gandalf

xvart.

Well, dammit, there goes any possible townpoints.

[inHimshallibe]

Alright, LlamaFluff, it comes to fisticuffs. Post in question:

Um, so thoughts, thoughts, thoughts... I didn't realize how dumb my Y was until after the draft order was released.

Parama is probably scum. I get the feeling there is someone in his list that he is trying to protect. Hoopla's breakdown of the neighborhoods was very useful, but not voting Guderian because of vollkan is a bit befuddling. If scum thought they might as well go for broke with a (1,1) submission, (2,1) would certainly be reasonable insurance. The thing is, if there were two X=1 submissions, we wouldn't be talking about Guderian at all. Hmmm...

I think it's not helpful in the slightest to discuss number selections at the moment; we should be scumhunting much more so in the manner of Fate, using Hoopla analysis to lock a case down, and not using the number analysis to

begin

a case.

Well, first of all, I suck as this was my only real good post before I caught up tonight.

Alright, so you're trying to lock me down on being scum with Guderian scum? I think you were referencing this next piece as a big slip or tell or somesuch:

Hoopla's breakdown of the neighborhoods was very useful, but not voting Guderian because of vollkan is a bit befuddling. If scum thought they might as well go for broke with a (1,1) submission, (2,1) would certainly be reasonable insurance. The thing is, if there were two X=1 submissions, we wouldn't be talking about Guderian at all. Hmmm...

So, I'm actually calling to light some possible suspicion onto Hoopla for writing off Guderian in Hoopla's first passthrough of the unique numbers and who-is-scum-within-that-subset.

Um, explain to me what else.

[inHimshallibe]

I dont see a scum motivated drive right now behind hoopla trying to confirm whether there actually is a gunsmith in the top 3. Theres already a 33% base chance of anyone of us being it, actually 50% now.

Wouldn't it be just as easy for gandalf to claim a random role that he wasn't actually vt too. Lets say hes actually VT to cop? He, as scum would already know that there was a cop in the top three, so he wouldn't worry about that. He would say vt to gunsmith to try and out the gunsmith, knowing full well they have a 33% chance of hitting cop in the night. So it can be played both ways.

Oh, the implications of Guderianscum. For vollkan's inevitable "Elaborate, please," I'll say I'd not mind lynching hoopla and gandalf both if Guderian is scum. And for vollkan's further inevitable "Because?" I just have a feeling, I guess. Guderian seems to be talking from a playbook.

[inHimshallibe]

Don't fuck around Hoopla, my POINT is that YOU ARE SCUM.

Don't twist this around and ask ME questions.

YOU explain YOURSELF and why YOU started trying to get people above gandalf to claim gunsmith or not.

Your post really does imply you think Gandalf is town, though.

If you think Gandalf is scum, you should have no qualms pushing for a Gunsmith claim that possibly hits two birds with one stone

. So, I'll take you arguing this point as you thinking Gandalf is town...


...which is laughable.

What's the second bird?

[inHimshallibe]

What's the second bird?

The second bird was a rhetorical comment to showcase the stupidity of forcing an imposed train of thought onto someone (particularly given a complex, multiple possibility scenario);

And Hoopla should know better,

HooplaTOWN would have stepped back and said "well if Gandalf is scum he wouldn't claim vanilla to a role he
DIDNT know was above him

, so therefore there is no reason for us to have the top three above him claim."

I was pushing the argument using Fate's style of logic, hoping he would get the hint that his simple way of assuming someone's mindset, then falsely framing in it in a stupid dichotomy.... is.... stupid. Teaching via example is usually the best way to get a point across. So, we'll see what Fate has to say.

Don't particularly buy it, though I guess it holds water. I think you wouldn't be as focused on teaching as scumhunting.

[inHimshallibe]

THE PRO-TOWN WAY TO DO IT

Chkflip- STFU SCOOPS
Volkan- +100 Hoopla

[inHimshallibe]

We should be closing down neighbourhoods early.

I think this is a bit off-base. We should be lynching the scummiest candidates and using the information all deaths give us to close down the 'hoods. For example, lynching a X=6 scum is far more valuable to the town than lynching scum in the Fab Four; we potentially create a bloc of four town in the X=6 group.

Interestingly enough, Hoopla is in the X=6 'hood.

Hm.

But, OK, I understand that we want to take out possible scum vigs first, and those are more likely to be in the unique groups.

Vote on Guderian stands, I'm still not sold either way on Hoopla.

[inHimshallibe]

inHimistowninHimistowninHimistowninHimistowninHimistowninHimistowninHimistown

[/wish]

[inHimshallibe]

inHim is scum

Damn the luck!

[inHimshallibe]

Wow, that happened. I got called out for making useless posts. By gandalf.

I must have been using invisible ink these last couple of pages. :mustremembertochangethat:

[inHimshallibe]

Interestingly enough, Hoopla is in the X=6 'hood.

Not really, though...

Oops! Had you and iaaun crossed up.

[inHimshallibe]

Alright, Hooplawagon is not correct when we have such a juicy Guderian lynch.

NEED I REMIND YOU OF HOW ALL OVER THE PLACE GUDERIAN IS?

First:

2/3 chance of gandalf, vollkan, chkflip being scum

Then:

gandalf or ben need to die today

[inHimshallibe]

If Hoopla is scum, her math is tainted. She would get her buddies to choose numbers in a way that she wouldn't inadvertently nail them.

Discuss.

Disagree. There are too many people from previous PYPs for her to gambit with "tainted math."

[inHimshallibe]

Because she knows that it's probable that scum would pick different numbers, and knows she has to push that early game. So she might have three of her buddies pick the same X number, for example.

And sacrifice all that potential power? No way.

[inHimshallibe]

Zoom zoom, Greyhound.

I don't disagree.

[inHimshallibe]

Llama, of the four uniques, which do you find scummiest?

[inHimshallibe]

Well, he's not actually one of those four, but he is pretty high up on the draft order.

[inHimshallibe]

To me, we're looking at those four because two of them are acting pretty damned scummy, the numbers favor us hitting scum among the uniques, and lynching scum higher up on the draft order takes away scum power.

[inHimshallibe]

We have people committing some serious scumtells and they are just getting a pass because all of this number nonsense with no substance to give it any girth.

Names. I don't give too much care to the "serious scumtells" - we'll need an explicit list of names.

[inHimshallibe]

Oh. Well I'd say those two are getting plenty of attention right now.

Which should we lynch first?

[inHimshallibe]

[inHimshallibe]

bah cropping fail. WE MOVE ON.

[inHimshallibe]

deadline VI lynch.

As opposed to other Benmage lynches?

With Guderian I still lean to that he is scrambling.

[inHimshallibe]

Well, chk's town.

[inHimshallibe]

Le Cupcake - town
Benmage - town
slowsilver - town
Andrius - scum

From the hip.

[inHimshallibe]

I was taking Odd-Night Vig if I was #1. Puts town in too much of a hole.

[inHimshallibe]

unvote

I will reassess.

[inHimshallibe]

Anywhose TL/DR...I'm a VT..if someone worthwild not voting me

wants to know what I went for, I'll claim it.

Um, duh? Or is this not correct PYP theory?

[inHimshallibe]

p.s. Andrius forgetting about this game is pure BS. Its basically like gandalf's excuses.

:goodfreakingposting:

Hoopla's town, Fate, let's move on.

vote: Andrius

I realize I've played rubbish later on in Day 1. Trying to correct.

[inHimshallibe]

Welp.

Do I just go ahead and claim?

[inHimshallibe]

Weak doc.

Um, so thoughts, thoughts, thoughts... I didn't realize how dumb my Y was until after the draft order was released.

Parama is probably scum. I get the feeling there is someone in his list that he is trying to

protect. Hoopla

's breakdown of the neighborhoods was very useful, but not voting Guderian because of vollkan is a bit befuddling. If scum thought they might as well go for broke with a (1,1) submission, (2,1) would certainly be reasonable insurance. The thing is, if there were two X=1 submissions, we wouldn't be talking about Guderian at all. Hmmm...

I think it's not helpful in the slightest to discuss number selections at the moment; we should be scumhunting much more so in the manner of Fate, using Hoopla analysis to lock a case down, and not using the number analysis to

begin

a case.

Calling my shot. Yes, everyone called me out on that line, and that's why it was so awkward.

I'm still alive. I highly doubt I was jailkept. Hoop's town.

[inHimshallibe]

Benmage 3,4
slowsilver 3,5

I think there's a scum here. Makes no sense to kill chkflip otherwise, really.

[inHimshallibe]

unvote
vote: slowsilver

[inHimshallibe]

GET YOUR GOD DAMN ACTIONS IN NOW NO FUCKIN EXCUSES IM NOT SAJIN SLAP ON THE WRIST MCFIDDLETHUMBS

k

[inHimshallibe]

@xvart: Because that seems dumb? I'm using my role as an investigative tool and people at the top of the draft order will get sorted out sooner than people lower down the list.

[inHimshallibe]

I've already called a potential shot, Fate. I'd like to know Hoopla's opinion.


They pretty much have to roleblock me if they don't want information loose.

[inHimshallibe]

Oh yeah forgot about that.

Hey Ben, would it make your inside churn if I told you I had initially submitted role cop as a choice also?

/grin

I had you as Odd-Night Vig. Thought that was obv, but mebbe not.

[inHimshallibe]

Then, gandalf, you really should take more time to consider what you're posting before you do such.

Yay Town!