You all haven't played in a PYP game as far as I remember. These questions are for you. You are being judged based on your answers.
PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I don't think you understand the draft if you don't understand the third question. How it works is, each player chooses two numbers (an X and a Y number). Whoever has the lowest unique X number wins the draft, followed by the second lowest unique X number. Once all the unique numbers are put in order, it then goes to the X numbers that were only chosen twice, with the lowest sets being ranked first. Then it goes to X numbers that were only picked thrice, and so on. The Y number is merely the decicider in cases of doubling up (in which case, the lowest Y number goes first if the X numbers are tied).Andrius wrote:
3) I'm not sure I understand the question. I can see them doubling up, but I don't understand what you mean by the first part. Maybe I just need sleep..Hoopla wrote:
Obviously, choosing the same X number as someone else will drop your position in the draft - so do you think scum, when they were talking together in their quicktopic, chose to deliberately sabotage a couple of their chances at a good pick by doubling up on an X number? What would you do as scum, if you were in charge of delegating the numbers to your teammates?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I was hoping I'd have got more answers for my survey by now, but these will have to do, as I don't want the tells I've derived to become obsolete to the new information that is currently being generated. Here is what I asked;
1. Over the last two PYP's, we've had several players having no clue how the draft system works, and as analysis of the numbers is very important in the game, it's crucial that people know how this works, otherwise they'll get lost when this comes up.Hoopla wrote:
2. This question was designed mostly as a lead-in to the next question, and to generate some more information on the individual process of thinking/submitting numbers.
3. The most important question. Players of the last two PYP's probably know I'm fond of number analysis, and that this question is a key starting point in addressing the likelihood of someone being scum.
I'm going to operate on the assumption that everyonegetshow the draft works now. As usual, I hold the belief that scum have chosen 5 unique numbers to maximise their chances of collecting the best set of roles possible. This is optimal scum play, and the only way it becomes suboptimal is if they think town will use number analysis a lot, in which case, doubling up on one number might be a worthwhile distancing ploy. As it stands, with the reactions to third question from those that answered, and the attitudes toward number analysis from previous PYP players, I find it exceedingly likely that scumhave notdoubled up on their X numbers.
The beauty of this is, we have two solid groups of copied numbers, which implies a very strong core of townies - DGB, iam, Andrius, Sajin and Pom ALL picked the number 6, which if my theory is correct, means (at best) there is one scum there, with the possibility of zero. Likewise for the trio that picked the number 8; Llama, Parama and InHim - it's very likely that there is 0 or 1 scum in this group. What does this all mean? It means that lynching (particuarly early in the game) from these groups is very poor town play, as our odds are much lower than normal, of any one of them being scum.
Consider the draft to be like neighbourhoods. Neighbourhoods designated by the choice of X number;
Spoiler: Neighbourhoods
If the assumption of scum being in 5 separate neighbourhoods is true, it means neighbourhoods with the least amount of players have higher chances of being scum. For example, if we look at Hood 11, we know at best there should only be 1 scum there, but there are 5 players, which means IF there is scum there, we still only have a 20% chance of hitting it. Whereas, if we compare it to Hood 1, 2, 3 or 4, who only have one player within it. IF there is scum in one of those hoods, it is 100% guaranteed it is that player.
Here's an interesting stat from the last two PYP games. Of the 7 players who have landed unique numbers in the draft, 4 of them have been scum. There is no doubt in my mind, that we should be lynching one of the top 4 - closing down neighbourhoods is a very simple and organic way of trapping scum, as it quickly reduces the possible sets of scumpartners if know scum must be spread across certain numbers.
The only way this plan is possibly fraught with danger is if you believe scum have doubled up on their numbers in the draft. In which case, that is two choices that are very likely to go down the drain, and we are facing a relatively weak scumteam. I would be happy if scum did indeed choose to double up, even if it somewhat undermines the number analysis. Regardless, I am 80% sure scum would not have doubled up, which means the top four players should be battling it out together.-
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Hoopla
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I co-designed this set-up. I helped SpyreX choose what roles went into this game. I know that scum were able to coordinate after they received their alignment.Fate wrote:If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.-
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Hoopla
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Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;
This is particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.chkflip wrote:OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?
Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;
This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.chkflip wrote:Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.
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Slowsilver also gets micro-town points for this;
This also happened during the role selection process. The reason this strikes me as town, is because scum have a quicktopic, they're discussing role choices together, as a team. Yet, this is a very individualistic mindset, concerned about one particular role and how it will affect him. Also, the very fact that scum are talking together in a QT means you're less likely to ask those sort of questions in public, when you can just ask there. I'd bet that Slowsilver is town too.slowsilver wrote:If someone targets themselves while they are in jail do they get affected?
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A quick comment on the Slowsilver wagon:
This seems completely misguided and wrong. I don't see any of his play as scummy, as much as it is dim. Given the make-up of this wagon, I'm reluctant to call it scum-motivated, as it just looks like overeager players wagoning for the sake of wagoning. I normally endorse this sort of play, as it's a great way to generate information, but I think the mob would be more useful in targeting someone else - I already have a decent enough read on Slowsilver - he's town.
Who's up for a change in direction?
VOTE: Gandalf-
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Hoopla
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Fate, I'm still typing.
Going into some survey-specific analysis, I don't think Guderian and vollkan are scum together. They picked 1 and 2 (respectively) as their X numbers and won the draft. For them to both be scum, it means that the entire town didn't pick the numbers 1 and 2, which, although it could happen, it just seems like a far less likely scenario than two scum picking them, when they had pregame coordination. It is a subconcious tendency when fabricating randomness to give a decent spread of numbers, rather than pooling everything together - to the human mind constantly seeking pattern, picking sequential numbers (particularly the top two), seems wrong, especially if they're worried about others looking for patterns. It's the same mentality of scum all block-voting in a row on a townie - although you could do it, and it might be a decent form of distancing, you don't, because you subconciously worry about the links between you and your buddies.
When you look at the reasoning vollkan and Guderian provided for their choices;
vollkan wrote:2) I figured 1 was too obvious, but 2 was a likely pick because people who were smart enough not to pick one would probably go for larger numbers. And six was chosen because it was relatively close to one without being ridiculously so.
They are uncannily similar, that if they were scumbuddies, I feel they'd be more worried about matching up their answers so neatly, when they're already linked neatly at the top of the draft.Guderian wrote:2. Human tendency to avoid the obvious
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Of the two, vollkan's answers read more sincere, though he is a very experienced player, so I'm reluctant to give him too much leeway. Regardless, the fact he is so efficient as town makes me not want to lynch him out of the top 4 players, as he could be very useful if given some time to live (if he is town), more so than the other three, I feel. Having ruled out vollkan/Guderian together and chkflip individually, Gandalf is the current best choice in my mind.-
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Hoopla
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This makes me think Benmage was town. Decently sincere, and matches up well. In PYP1 scumBenmage wrote:That said I like the logic behind the top picks being scum organized, I actually didn't think scum were able to coordinate their picks and I wonder if it was different in PYP1 or if its just been too long.weren'table to coordinate their draft picks. It was only from the second edition onward did that become a feature. The rest of his post is good too.
If Benmage is town, and my prediction of slowsilver being town is correct, I'd wager than one of vollkan/Guderian is scum. If they weren't it would mean the lowest X number scum could have picked would be 5, which I find very unlikely for reasons based on the subconcious mind trying to fabricate randomness, which I went into in my last post.
I'm really happy with how this draft has unfolded. A lot of very solid information.-
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Hoopla
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Responding to this now;
This is hilariously paranoid and oversensitive. He stretches his mind to figure out my motive for voting for him, and despite coming to the wrong conclusion, proceeds to do the exact thing that I was supposedly voting him for. This is weak pandering to prevent a vote, which reeks of anxious scum preempting pressure or a wagon on himself and scrambling to thwart it before it surfaces.gandalf5166 wrote:Oh, and Hoopla had such sound reasoning behind most of her post up until then. Why exactly are we voting for me? I think it might be because I didn't answer her survey. I was on my Wii, and typing is a pain in the ass, so I was only posting in games where my opinion really counted.
1. Yes.
2.IDK
3. I don't think they would have chosen repeat numbers on purpose. It just doesn't make sense.
Oh, and UNVOTE:
Look how quickly he backs down with his vote too, which is worryingly ominous given how much in favour he was for it;
~ more Gandalf votes please.gandalf5166 wrote:Oh wow. Pretty much what Pom said.
VOTE: slowsilver-
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Hoopla
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Give me the exact quote and I'll respond to it.Fate wrote: And good lord Guderian already CLAIMED scum
Not an exact quote wrote:I even had tochange the numbers that I sent in
I don't understand why you have problems with my theories, but it'd help if you dropped your shtick for a second and logically explained what is wrong, because I can't see your point through your wild arm-flailing rage. I'm refering to post 110, by the way.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Okay, it was in queue thread, no wonder I didn't see it here.Fate wrote:
HERE. MY NOT EXACT QUOTE CAPTURES THE ESSENCE OF THE DAMN POST ANYWAY.Guderian wrote:game theory. I had to change my original numbers too !
I don't think this is particularly scummy - what scum motivation is there to declare that in thread? If you think the reason this is scummy is because it implies Guderian changed his numbers due to being handed a scum QT, explain why. Because I don't think anyone would be that stupid to go "oh, I submitted 7,2, but then I realised my scumbuddies wanted me to pick 1,1!, derp derp, better say that in thread!!" - lets let Guderian explain what he meant though, because it definitely needs clearing up.
For what it's worth, my logic for voting Gandalf is based on wanting to eliminate a unique number, and he is the best choice based on chkflip being town, and because I think vollkan/Guderian aren't scum together. Given the high chances of scum being on unique numbers Gandalf slightly dwarfs going for one of those two, if at least one of those two are town. Plus he's scummy as fuck.-
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Hoopla
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Perhaps this is something SpyreX can clarify for us then.Sajin wrote: @Hoopla- I agree your theories would be awesome for previous PYPs. But this one may be different.
Sorry I do not automatically buy that scum could coordinate numbers in the draft. Its highly questionable to me whether scum were able to coordinate number picks. Role picks I can agree with. Even if you did indeed "co design". While I will concede if what you say is true, the argument about "neighborhoods" is a decent one, I still question the premise. How long do you think scum had to coordinate then, given said premise? I also would love to see some arguments from you that do not revolve around this premise. I think every one of your arguments so far is based on it ( or its cousin, the picking of roles, not draft order which I find far more likely to be true). I would be willing to take a poll on this though. Cause I foresee this being an important part of every one of your arguments for the rest of the game and I do not want to wifom toss out said arguments like old dish water.
Were scum able to talk in the QT/change numbers if they wished during the sign-up and draft phase?SPYREX:-
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Hoopla
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There's a difference between picking 1/2 and 12/13, because 1 and 2 are a lot more likely to be picked by towns, and will get looked at a lot more by towns. I think even when I was scum in PYP2 we picked two X numbers in a row somewhere in the spectrum of 1-15, but going for the top 2 is too obvious. Another point why I thought it was unlikely was because nobody else picked 1 and 2, when normally they are very pickable numbers. I just really doubt that the only two players to pick 1 and 2 are both scum. What likelihood do you give it?Fate wrote:Oh ok #110 was for you, and if you CANT read the meaning there then god help us all.
You say X would not happen based on human MINDZ
I show you X and how it DID happen LAST FUCKIN PYP.
You say "the hells yor point you lunatic??!?!?"-
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Hoopla
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You're an idiot, I already did clarify it, and you're damn scummy for insinuating I didn't when you know I did;Fate wrote:Oh NOW you ask after hours and hours of typing, AND me already POINTING OUT THAT POINT MULTIPLE TIMES. SO you just skimmed over:
Fate wrote:If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.
The reason I'm getting SpyreX to say it, is because Sajin doesn't believe this is true, and it's possible others don't too, because my word isn't good enough. Getting an official, authorative statement saying 'YES SCUM COULD TALK DURING CONFIRMATIONS' will help stop idiots like you who want a cheap reason to discard my analysis.Hoopla wrote:
I co-designed this set-up. I helped SpyreX choose what roles went into this game. I know that scum were able to coordinate after they received their alignment.Fate wrote:If that thing doesn't contain a definite "yes scum could co-ordinate number pick after they received their alignment, I asked SpyreX" there's gonna be words.-
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Hoopla
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I wouldn't lose sleep if we lynched either one of them - I just think Gandalf is a better choice, and I've justified my reasoning for my vote more than any other vote in the thread. I think you have better things to do now rather than harass me, because we're just cluttering the thread. Go ahead and start a competing wagon if you want, infact, I encourage it.Fate wrote: Snipe: Oh I see. I don't really know the likelihood of it, as I don't have the full scum team roster and perfect insight into their personalities. (If only I had known what mithscum was like... if only...), but the goal of scum picking numbers is to to fuck with people, so anything is possible. I mean 110 wasn't so much as a "HERES WHY VOLKAN AND GUDERIAN ARE SCUM TOGETHER!" so much as a "here's a way your argument is factually flawed and may just be hot air, scum literally did two numbers in a row last time."
So basically I'm just in disagreement that you seem to be putting Gud/Volk in their own neighborhood where a townflip on one implicates the other and so forth. NOR how you seem to be justifying not voting them because you group them together AS a neighborhood, as if that makes it poor play to lynch either of them.-
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Hoopla
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I believe in townslips a lot more than I believe in scumslips.Jack wrote: Are you really pulling "what scum motivation is there..." etc? What's the scum motivation for ever being scummy? And I know you believe in scumslips. Those quotes are damning.
Also, I tried to look up your reason for choosing (1,1) in pypII but the QT is cutoff. Something about "we have 5 numbers, we can afford to have one person go for broke". Don't you still think that's a likely mafia strategy?
Sure, there's a bunch of reasons for one scum to go for 1,1 or something similar. My post was dispelling the logic that scum would come out and go 'HEY I SUBMITTED MY NUMBERS, AND CHANGED THEM BECAUSE I GOT A SCUM ROLE AND MY BUDDIES TOLD ME TO DO IT'. I wasn't saying there aren't any good reasons as scum to go 1,1.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Sajin wrote:@Hoopla- I agree your theories would be awesome for previous PYPs. But this one may be different.
Sorry I do not automatically buy that scum could coordinate numbers in the draft. Its highly questionable to me whether scum were able to coordinate number picks.
So, what do we do now?SpyreX wrote:SPYREX: Were scum able to talk in the QT/change numbers if they wished during the sign-up and draft phase?
Yes. Any players could change their numbers before the draft time. Scum QT was activated upon signup. (this is true for ALL PYPS)-
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Hoopla
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Scumhunting is the process to determine the alignment of a player (hopefully eking out scum) - as we cannot do this with anywhere near 100% accuracy, we do our best to derive tells to improve on the starting odds of lynching randomly. When you lose the glamorous title of scumhunting, it essentially boils down to improving your odds of lynching scum via the way of mostly subjective tells. Looking at neighbourhoods is a form of improving the likelihood of lynching scum, if done correctly.inHimshallibe wrote: I think it's not helpful in the slightest to discuss number selections at the moment; we should be scumhunting much more so in the manner of Fate, using Hoopla analysis to lock a case down, and not using the number analysis tobegina case.
I provided a stat earlier about the previous PYP's. Of the 7 players that ended up getting unique numbers in the draft (in previous games), 4 of them have been scum. This is because scum actively choosing to spread across five different X numbers gives them a greater chance of winning/doing better than average in the draft compared to a random townie. An individual scumbag knows 4 other numbers NOT to pick, as any double with any other player sends your hurtling down the draft order. Imagine if a townie knew the X number of 4 random other players in the game - that'd be a massive advantage for them. Well, scum have 5 of those players. It is no wonder that scum do far better than random in the draft when choosing five different numbers.
Most of us seem convinced that scum chose differing numbers, but don't understand this belief means that scum are very likely in a higher density than random in the top parts of the draft. I know I can't speak for everyone else, but I choose to take that objective inflation of lynch percentages, rather than relying on subjective tells to figure out who the scum are, because people have a horrible track record of getting that right.
Seriously, we have four players in this game with unique numbers. It's unfathomable to me that these are all town players from a sheer probabilistic standpoint, due to scum having such better chances of landing a unique number. The wagons on other players lower in the draft are a waste of time (at least on D1 and maybe D2).-
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Hoopla
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Um, the draft is a two stage process. One, you submit your numbers, wait for the order of the draft to be announced based on those numbers. Then once that is done, stage two begins: choosing a role. These are individual events. Scum picking numbers to get roles/prevent roles makes no sense.xvart wrote:Hoopla- generally speaking, when scum pick numbers, do you think they pick to get roles or to prevent roles from being picked?-
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Hoopla
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That's stupid reasoning - how do you catch them as scum, then?Parama wrote:Pome, gandalf and slow are bad players who will always look scummy regardless of whatever they do.
You're town.
Understand these things.
Obey.
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Some other thoughts;
The Llama/Prana/whoever else debate about Llama's picks is a red herring, and hardly illuminating alignment-wise either way. For what it's worth, Llamafluff is that stubbornly opposed to PR's (at least strong ones), that I don't find his claims unreasonable or false, even if they appear silly.
The Xvart wagon is really dumb, mostly because I can't figure out why so many people think he's scummy. Someone post a succinct analysis/summary of why xvart is being wagoned, because I would really like to know. I'm obviously opposed to his lynch (today) due to him not being a unique number, but I doubt the case against him has any substance.
Some people are happily endorsing the lynch-a-unique-number theory, which gladdens me, as this is a massive change of collective consciousness compared to PYP when nobody really wanted a bar of number analysis. Some seem to be ignoring this, which kind of bugs me, as they're not actively opposed to the idea, but rather don't care/understand it. The town is seemingly divided into people using a form of number analysis (to various degrees), and those not using it at all. Those using some derivative of number theory are all stoicly entrenched on Guderian votes - I was hoping for a bit more debate about which of the four we should lynch, or at worst, have a two-horse race rather than Guderian blitz the field.
I'm frustrated that I am preemptively being linked so thoroughly to Guderian when I have never actively opposed his lynch, quite the opposite - I seem to remember saying he is a perfectly fine lynch, encouraging a bandwagon on him to spawn. There is a very real chance he is scum, almost on par with a coinflip, and the contradictory part of this all is, that is Guderian were to flip town, I would not receive any town points, and I would almost expect someone to spin me as scum based off of it. This is something for later, though.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Right, it's very possible a scum chose 6,something, but it's super unlikely that more than one scum did. Which, if true, means that at best there is one scum in the block of five players who chose 6 as their X number.Le Cupcake wrote: I do not agree with hoopla that we can just simply ignore the block of players who chose 6. She herself having once chose (1,1) as scum and ending up with 2 others choosing it illustrates that just because they happened to pick the same as others doesn't mean they're not scum.
However, those neighborhoods NOT being the place to start is something that I definately agree with her on.-
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Hoopla
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So, you're saying if Gandalf is scum he must have a buddy higher up the chain than him? If so, don't you think getting the Gunsmith claim would be even more valuable to know?Fate wrote: And Hoopla should know better, HooplaTOWN would have stepped back and said "well if Gandalf is scum he wouldn't claim vanilla to a role he DIDNT know was above him, so therefore there is no reason for us to have the top three above him claim."
Initially I read that quote as you saying Gandalf is town, because his move doesn't make sense as scum, and it's still kind of ambiguous. Is that true? Do you think Gandalf is town?-
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Hoopla
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Your post really does imply you think Gandalf is town, though. If you think Gandalf is scum, you should have no qualms pushing for a Gunsmith claim that possibly hits two birds with one stone. So, I'll take you arguing this point as you thinking Gandalf is town...Fate wrote:Don't fuck around Hoopla, my POINT is that YOU ARE SCUM.
Don't twist this around and ask ME questions.
YOU explain YOURSELF and why YOU started trying to get people above gandalf to claim gunsmith or not.
...which is laughable.-
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Hoopla
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The second bird was a rhetorical comment to showcase the stupidity of forcing an imposed train of thought onto someone (particularly given a complex, multiple possibility scenario);inHimshallibe wrote:What's the second bird?
I was pushing the argument using Fate's style of logic, hoping he would get the hint that his simple way of assuming someone's mindset, then falsely framing in it in a stupid dichotomy.... is.... stupid. Teaching via example is usually the best way to get a point across. So, we'll see what Fate has to say.Fate wrote: And Hoopla should know better,HooplaTOWN would have stepped back and said "well if Gandalf is scum he wouldn't claim vanilla to a role he, so therefore there is no reason for us to have the top three above him claim."
DIDNT know was above him-
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Hoopla
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Goddamn, I hate arguing with you. You're so fucking tedious sometimes.Fate wrote:
This does NOT adequately explain the second bird comment, as it assumes gandalf is scum and his buddy above him is the gunsmith, and that his buddy would CLAIM as such.The second bird was a rhetorical comment to showcase the stupidity of forcing an imposed train of thought onto someone (particularly given a complex, multiple possibility scenario);
The only reason I "assume" this is because your initial post predetermined that is what I must have been thinking, so I am arguing fromthatperspective to show you how dumb your assumption was. You were the one that said Hoopla must have been thinking that, not I. Because I was not thinking that. In an ideal world, I'd be pushing a top 4 massclaim, but I already know how that's going to go down in this group of players.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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You're right, I shouldn't have tried getting a point across to you in a non-conventional way. I'll baby you by pandering to your short attention span next time.
I wanted the Gunsmith to claim because there is a high likelihood of at least one scum being in the top four, and going by previous games, two is probably the likeliest exact amount. The situation is to be considered based on what information each alignment knows. Scum know if Gandalf is scum, so lets look at it from their perspective. If Gandalf is scum with them, then they likely have the Gunsmith at a different pick, in which case a Gunsmith-claim situation doesn't give scum any more info. If Gandalf is town, scum already have it narrowed down to most likely 1 or 2 spots regardless (depending on how many scum are above a hypo-town-Gandalf), or it's possible scum are the Gunsmith themselves above Gandalf. Regardless, we don't give scum much information they don't already have, whilst giving town more (on par with what scum has or nearly has). And even if scum only have it narrowed down to a 1 in 2 chance, they probably have better roles to kill/fish for (aka, those vigs). The whole idea of claiming gunsmith is to give us information scum already likely have. It's a net gain for town.
The point I played devil's avocado with isn't actually a bad one too; if Gandalf flips scum (which seems to be on par with a coin flip), we've totally just missed the chance to lock their buddy into an active claim, either linking with Gandalf or setting him up to be a liar.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
There are basically zero negative repurcussions of getting a gunsmith claim from the top four - as Jack said, scum already know good roles are up there. What does the scum gain, really? Compared to the town very little. I see a wide variety of linking and information reasons for town to get these claims, which I have already covered in detail.
When am I arrogant as scum, by the way?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
The entire reason for this disconnect is based on differing beliefs of Gandalf's alignment. You think he is town, so obviously claiming is less beneficial for town, whereas, I think it's likelier than not he is scum, meaning it's more beneficial to catch a scum claim this way. Regardless, if you believe Gandalf is town and chkflip is town, I have no idea why you're not wanting Guderian or vollkan dead, because surely the odds of scum being there trump whatever subjective scumtells you have on me.
If you want to vote me tomorrow, fine, but everyone voting outside of the top four is wasting their vote. We should be closing down neighbourhoods early.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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That's flattering, but what about if I'm town? Because surely, I do not exist as a mechanism to further scum win conditions regardless of my alignment. Do you mean my benefit to scum as scum is greater than my benefit to town as town?PranaDevil wrote: I do like the Hoopla wagon though, Benmage still needs lynching, Gude is definite scum, but Hooplascum needs shutting down earlier than later as even with a less powerful role than other scum, as a player she's the most dangerous to town.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
You're seriously arguing that a me-goon is more powerful than a scum double kill? You're fucking deluded. Awesome scum directing by me if Guderian/Gandalf are scum. IT'S GENIUS.PranaDevil wrote:
Guderian is scum regardless, Hoopla is a much better player as Guderian and thus can direct scum better the longer she is alive. Dead Hooplascum as Mafia Goon is better for town day 1 than say, dead Guderian scum as Mafia Vig.Jack wrote:If hoopla is scum, guderian is scum. If hoopla is town, guderian is scum. Wagoning hoopla makes no sense.
So I have to either read all that or switch to guderian. Are people seriously willing to argue that gandalf is town though?
Seriously, you're just playing to my ego, saying I'm the scum mastermind, when in reality players like me gather a lot of attention reagrdless which is the exact opposite of what makes a successful scum player, particularly when the town is filled with people suffering from a hero complex, relishing the opportunity to take down the top dog. I know I get zero credit from bussing, and I know I will be scrutinised out of paranoia at some point in the game - there is literally no incentive for me to try and be the scum mastermind bussing my PR-scumbuddies, beyond ego, and frankly, I'd like to think I'm more modest than that, or at least sensible enough to know that gives me low odds of winning.
Again, I expect to be scrutinised, but your fear of me being scum is irrational, because I know I won't make it to endgame, either way. You have other shadows lurking around you who have better chances of winnng as scum.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Forgot to answer this;
1) That was me.LlamaFluff wrote:1) Who was bringing up some "Giardia or vollkan" thing? I think someone was talking about that at one point.
2) Did Hoopla do this neighborhood thing in PPY3?
2) Yes. Have a link. This was on D3. Every single one of my predictions were right, except the janitor being scum.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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It's wifom, but there are still very rational, logical undertones to what I say. The take-away point from that post is that I know I won't make it to endgame, so bussing my buddies is fucking stupid if I'm going to wind up dead at some point. There's no point doing something if it nets me no gain. You could argue that I net this wifom defense as a gain, but is that worth it?PranaDevil wrote:Why are you using WIFOM Hoopla?
"I'm only getting attention because I get attention anyway, so it would be a bad scum strategy to have me as scum" huh? You don't pick whether you're scum, and if you were extra quiet this game it would definitely be picked up on, so you had no choice but to give it all you had to show you were on town's side. Leaving the above quote to be pure WIFOM.
Of course not, and I know it doesn't work. It happened to me in PYP3 where I was lynched as town. My defense was based on me-scum playing in an illogical way;
There was zero incentive for me to make the idiotic role choices that the scum did that game if you want to brand me with the scum mastermind tag, yet I was still lynched out of paranoia that game. There is also zero incentive for me to try and play the role I did in PYP2, because I know it doesn't work now that I've developed a reputation for it, and I expect to die at some stage. There are varying degrees of wifom - the initial coinage of the term was based on an event with relatively equal odds of being true. I don't think the pay-off for me being scum in the last game was equivalent - it was very irrational for scum-Hoopla to make such role choices, but aha! that is what she wants you to think. And when you think that way, you give it relatively equal odds of being true, rather than recognising that deliberately making an irrational/suboptimal choice should be judged on a sliding scale of probability.Fate wrote:
Read between the lines Hoopla.Hoopla wrote: Also, do you seriously think if I were scum I'd let my team get into this position so early in the game, and choose such roles? I would never take the vigs if I had two top 5 draft picks - there's so many more better role combinations, especially ones safer to a potential massclaim that give more outs.
I THINK YOU'RE SCUM. YOU'VE BEEN TOO HONEST THIS GAME.
Yes, I could bus my entire team. Yes, I could make super irrational role-choices for my scumteam, JUST so I can have people think "well, Hoopla wouldn't do that!". But it just doesn't work. Because I know people don't get this and won't give you credit proportional to the unlikelihood of you doing it as scum. They will still suspect me using behavioural tells, when something empirically irrational/illogical for me to do surfaces. And that subjective tell shouldn't eclipse a situation where it makes zero sense for me to do something as scum. I have better ways of improving my chances of winning if I indeed get dealt the hand of scum, rather than box myself into a super irrational position, just so I can have a defense against it.
This game isn't quite there yet, as we have no scumflips, but I still maintain my play doesn't give me the best odds of winning as scum, purely because I know I'll always garner a decent amount of suspicion if I'm alive. Don't discount something as wifom - the whole game is wifom, for fuck sake. The whole game is about predicting if someone would do something as town or scum. Every single tell is subject to this framework, but we do our best to weasel out the best bets during the game. And I strongly put forward I am not the best bet.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Right, but the only reason why it's so much more valuable is because there's long-odds of it being true. You can play roulette and gamble on zero if you want, but the pay-off whilst big, won't happen very often at all. And I'd suggest the pay-off isn't really proportionate to the wager when you consider scum have done better than random each time. Knowing 5 different draft numbers will always produce better than average results for scum in the long-run (if they choose unique numbers). In the bottom half (12-22) in the last two PYP's, there have only been 3 scum in 22 players. Those odds suck. This is the house edge showing.inHimshallibe wrote:
I think this is a bit off-base. We should be lynching the scummiest candidates and using the information all deaths give us to close down the 'hoods. For example, lynching a X=6 scum is far more valuable to the town than lynching scum in the Fab Four; we potentially create a bloc of four town in the X=6 group.Hoopla wrote:We should be closing down neighbourhoods early.
Spoiler: Drafts
Not really, though...inHimshallibe wrote:Interestingly enough, Hoopla is in the X=6 'hood.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
ARE YOU FOR REAL? THE WHOLE POINT OF GETTING SPYREX TO CONFIRM SCUM COULD COORDINATE PREGAME WAS TO PROVE TO YOU!!! THAT THIS GAME IS EXACTLY LIKE THE LAST TWO PYP GAMES.Sajin wrote: @Hoopla- I have a few concerns. Are you willing to accept that some circumstances may be different between games (for instance, the one I outlined above)? Because I see you as wanting to treat this like the same formulaic PYP game with a few role differences rather then its own unique game (although related, different).
SAJIN:UM YEAH, YOUR THEORIES ARE GOOD IF THIS WAS LIKE THE OTHER PYP'S, BUT IT'S NOT UGVHGHGHGH
HOOPLA:DUDE, THEY ARE EXACTLY THE SAME, SCUM COULD PLAN PREGAME IF THEY WISHED
SAJIN:HOOPLES I SEROISULY DOUBT THAT
SPYREX:SCUM COULD PLAN PREGAME. THE QUICKTOPIC WAS ACTIVE FROM THE SIGNUP THREAD.
SAJIN:UGHGHG CIRCUMSTANCES ARE DIFFERENT. I DOUBT THEY HAD TIME TO CHAT.
Want some proof that scum were probably chatting pregame?
November 21, 1:42PM:SpyreX wrote:As the answers are both yes, Zodiark fills it out.
I'll send a poke to whomever hasn't got me numbers.November 22, 1:37AM:SpyreX wrote:Just waiting for a few more numbers.November 22, 9:00PM:
That's a good 34 hours from the last sign-up to when all the numbers were in and couldn't be changed. This doesn't even include the time during the rest of sign-ups where some of the scum could have been talking and planning. Before you ask, you receive your alignment as you as /in and send numbers. Three scum could have been talking in the QT together by the time 12 people had signed up.SpyreX wrote:Numbers are all in!
Tonight at 11 PM PST I'll have the draft order up.You have until then to change numbers.
CONCLUSION: SCUM WERE VERY LIKELY COLLUDING PREGAME. JUST FINALLY ADMIT IT'S REAL, BECAUSE YOUR ARGUMENTS SUCK. THE DRAFT WAS EXACTLY THE SAME AS THE LAST ONES. SCUM ARE IN THE TOP 4.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Hey DGB, what do you think about my thoughts on chkflip being town?DrippingGoofball wrote:Just iso this guy.
VOTE: chkflip
Hoopla wrote:Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;
This is a particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.chkflip wrote:OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?
Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;
This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.chkflip wrote:Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
The outcome might not be completely horrible, but the methodology is laughable;
Guderian wrote:Now bear with me. Something about gandalfs 'three adhd's or whatever' seemed to ring through. *cue calls of buddying.* Something about his posts seemed sincere. So for now I am going to eliminate 12 from this list.
Come onnnnnn Llama....Guderian wrote: In my mind, benmage has been acting scummy. The numbers fit So, ben is in as well. thats two scum. Now, scum want to space out a bit, to ensure optimal placement.
~ it gets better;
Guderian wrote: Now, in previous games, scum have ALWAYS gone for 1,2. I see no reason this game would be different.Ergo, volkan is one of the scum. It also bodes well for this case that his y numbers is not a one.Guderian wrote: Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10
Not too sure about this one. Will need more time, but my best guess would be from the 10 'neighborhood'.
It's funny that he deduces vollkan must be scum, yet puts his vote elsewhere. It's funny that he is not completely sure who is scum in the top numbers, has a guess, then decides he will not support any other bandwagon than the ones he chose. I seriously don't even know why I'm typing this all out, because it's obvious he's just pulling this from his ass, because he feels like this is what is expected of him (it isn't). Is it scummy? Maybe. Although, it looks more like a newbie under pressure trying to figure out what the right thing to say is, and then say it, even if he doesn't get it.Guderian wrote:with this, here is my scum team
volkan
benmage
chk
hoopla/le cupcake
rabies/iam
I will happily join a bandwagon on any of these people. I will not join a bandwagon, or support in the slightest, one on anyone else. And the fact chk has done nothing but come in and randomly vote me is pretty scumtastic from my point of view.
unvote
vote: chkflip-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Guderian wrote: I told you who they were. Which part of my post is not completely sure.
Seems dumb to lock in on a short list of players at the end of your post when your logic is on par with "hmm, 10 sounds about right". Just saying.Guderian wrote: Hoopla 10,1
Le Cupcake 10,6
Jack 11,1
xvart 11,7
Fate 13,1
PranaDevil 13,10
Not too sure about this one. Will need more time, but my best guess would be from the 10 'neighborhood'.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
I brought this up earlier when DGB was stating her scumread on chkflip, which she ignored. It seems relevent to bring it up again now;
His self-implosion the last few pages has been bizarre, and ordinarilly I would find it scummy, but this behaviour can be exhibited by inexperienced/immature town and scum, no matter how much like scum it looks like. If anything, it more illustrates how detached and unfamiliar he is with MS culture, which makes his posts in the queue thread seem even more town.Hoopla wrote:Of the top four players, I'm ruling out chkflip. Pregame talk (in thread) was canned to minimise the amount of tells and strategies that could be formed when they shouldn't have been formed, but I have seen one which, even though it shouldn't have happened, it did. After the draft was announced, there were a couple of comments by chkflip which strike me as very town;
This is particularly illuminating comment, as surely scum would have already been tossing up which roles to pick and choose from. The only way chkflip is scum in this situation is if he is DELIBERATELY trying to mislead the town, or his scumbuddies have put him up to it. I'm ruling out the second option, because intentionally planning to drop tells in the draft thread would not fly with SpyreX in this game - it'd be a pretty stupid thing to talk about as scum as well, when you have all this other planning to do. It's just something scum wouldn't plan to do.chkflip wrote:OH! I had no idea we were supposed to choose. I'm dense, eh?
Which means the only other scum motivation is that chkflip decided upon himself to subtlely drop a town tell like this, but it is so good, and so convincingly honest, I don't think a newer player would be able to pull it off, let alone think of it in the first place. Even if he did manage that, he follows it up with this;
This is a very lucid, stream-of-conscious post, particularly when it only came a few minutes after the previous one. This post perfectly matches up with someone out-of-loop, just figuring out how the game actually operates. He would not have a reason to post this as scum other than fucking with the town, which as I said before, is insanely unlikely due to his inexperience and lucid notion of his posts. It is unmistakably town.chkflip wrote:Wow. AN enormous chance for a high number of vanillas. That'll be... interesting.