PYP 4: New Homes, Same Problems (Day 5)

[vollkan]

We are a cupcake vendor.
We sent vollkan a cupcake that we put our all of our love into, but he cruelly smashed it up into tiny little bits, much like how our heart was shattered.

Discuss.

You're either an alt of Katsuki or Leiskyrie. Given your avatar, I'm guessing Leiskyrie.

As such,

Vote: Le Cupcake

for turning me into a cupcake in that Marathon Game.

[vollkan]

We

are a cupcake vendor.

We

sent vollkan a cupcake that

we

put all of

our love

into, but he cruelly smashed it up into tiny little bits, much like how

our heart

was shattered.

Discuss.

You're either an alt of Katsuki or Leiskyrie. Given your avatar, I'm guessing Leiskyrie.

As such,

Vote: Le Cupcake

for turning me into a cupcake in that Marathon Game.

Reading comprehension skills = nonexistent
Is this because of your failure as a lawyer, or is it because you're a scumcake?

You turned me into a cupcake. If my reading comprehension has gone to hell, you are solely responsible.

[vollkan]

IMPORTANT SURVEY:

Andrius, Rabies, Vollkan, Le Cupcake, InHimshallibe, slowsilver, LlamaFluff, Benmage, Guderian, Sajin, xvart, chkflip, Zodiark13

:

You all haven't played in a PYP game as far as I remember. These questions are for you. You are being judged based on your answers.

1)

Did you fully understand how the draft system operated?

2)

Why did you choose the numbers you chose?

3)

Do you think it is likelier that scum chose unique X numbers, or doubled up on at least one of their choices?

1) I think so.
2) I figured 1 was too obvious, but 2 was a likely pick because people who were smart enough not to pick one would probably go for larger numbers. And six was chosen because it was relatively close to one without being ridiculously so
3) I don't follow you...did you get your alignment before you submitted your draft?

[vollkan]

Jack is scum
Andy is town
Hoopla is town
DGB is town

vote: Jack

More to come when more post

*mental note to wait for "more"*

3) I don't follow you...did you get your alignment before you submitted your draft?

You could change your numbers as much as you wanted until Spyrex posted the draft. Meaning scum could discuss their picks and change them accordingly.

Ooooohh... Bus Driver crumbz????

Unvote, Vote: xvart

There is absolutely no pro-town reason for pointing this out.

xvart+5

(For those who are unaware, I have recently decided to rescale my points system so that the numbers become bigger. A 5 is now equivalent to a former 2 or 3. It's just that because I've gotten more skeptical about scumtells over time, my scores have tended to be compressed between 50 and 65, so I have begun to rescale in all my new games)

I really don't know.

Nobody said you knew. What do you think is more likely?

2 I just chose two numbers around the midway point, got around the area in the draft I wanted actually

You

wanted

to be towards the bottom?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: llama

xvart.

Why do you think that is voteworthy?

Oh and quick statistics: Guderian has the largest bandwagon (obvious really), but as far as I can tell two of those votes have only jealously behind them (or just as likely scum trying to get rid of a powerful role).

xvart and Fate are the most active vote-wise - with 2 votes each, which isn't really enough to tell anything yet seeing as we are only just coming out of RVS.

Oh joy, bandwagon analysis

If you really need my vitally important opinion then Llama isn't scum, I think that it IS a scum tell voting Guderian, and I already said that I had no tell on the last one.

But as I say, there just isn't enough to go on yet.

Wait, so:

1. We're out of RVS, but-
2. You don't really have any opinions yet, except-
3. You have some opinions if we "really need" them, but no matter what-
4. "There just isn't enough to go on", so they don't count enough to to tie you down ever.

I think that there's enough for me to go on.

VOTE: slowsilver.

No.

Not having opinions is not scummy unless it is unreasonable to do so. At page 4, I don't think that's at all tenable.

Jack is scum
Andy is town
Hoopla is town
DGB is town
xvart is town
IAAUN is scum
Pome is town

Jack is still scummier IMO.

Your lack of "more" is disturbing

Jack is also exploiting silver to direct the lynch away from Guderian. Except he's doing it without words.
But yeah I guess
Jack is scum
Andy is town
Hoopla is town
DGB is town
xvart is town
IAAUN is scum
Pome is town
Guderian is scum

Lack of "more" is pissing me off

Much as I don't like defending people... thus far Jack's play is a null tell for me. I've literally just finished a game with him and Vollkan (me and Vollkan as scum in fact) and Jack's play seems pretty much the same as it did there to me.

Not saying he isn't scum, but at the moment he's done nothing out of the ordinary for Jack so far.

This.

FWIW, I think Jack is impossible to read.

parama, that's quite a list you've got there.

I present to you, mindless masses, BONIFIED SCUM.

I'm not trying to appear anything, I'm trying to get scum lynched. That's what SpyreX told me to do anyway.

I think you mean "BONA FIDE". Bonified means...something else.

He probably just didn't want to be a target which he would be if he was higher up - unless he is scum in which case he is trying to cover up his mistake with LIES and even worse ACCEPTANCE.

Nice fence sitting, but I'll respond the portion where you assume he is town. There is a term that gets used with people that want to avoid suspicion: Scum.

Queue the beginning of a crappily reasoned "Let me on the bandwagon" post by xvart.

How on earth is the above fence-sitting? The evidence available didn't point one way or the other, so the basis for suspicion wasn't made out/

xvart and Fate are the most active vote-wise - with 2 votes each, which isn't really enough to tell anything yet seeing as we are only just coming out of RVS.

So why make this comment if you can't tell anything from it? Are you just hoping that someone else will pick up this subtle suspicion and run with it?

What "subtle suspicion"? I hate BW analysis, but for the people who don't, it makes sense to keep tabs on BWing.

As for the other tell/not tell it is only writing from an objective viewpoint at this point - we don't have enough to go on yet. Why bother to write it down then? So that we can refer back to it later at a future date.

So you are hoping something that is irrelevant now will become relevant later?

*gasp* You mean he might try to collate evidence down the track?!

There is something in the people voting Guderian IMO, but there isn't enough for certainty (although I guess there never is in Mafia)

Yes, you said the something in the people voting Guderian was jealousy. Is jealousy a legitimate scumtell?

Better question. Where did he say that jealousy is a scumtell.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: slowsilver

I'd be happy with a lynch of llama or slowsilver. Llama's not so subtle bus is... not so subtle.

Xvart+6

Reaching BW-joining is reaching.

@Hoopla's 100: Subject to standard WIFOM, I agree. That said, I think even the incentive for WIFOM is reduced because the advantage for scum in taking PRs greatly outweighs the advantage for scum in doubling-up to avoid possible suspicion.

[vollkan]

Parama is probably scum. I get the feeling there is someone in his list that he is trying to protect.

Because?

There is no bus driver role to pick from, so I was either making a joke or an idiot.

*facepalm*

Xvart-5

Well... I can see the value in doing it either way, but I think it would depend on the scum team membership and how much time they actually spent coordinating and whether or not they thought that it would be beneficial to subvert suspicion by having two people pick identical numbers.

Why didn't you say this at first instance? I can't believe that you would seriously think that people were expecting you to declare what you "knew" - and, in the above, you have a perfectly reasonable opinion.

Instead of fence sitting I should have said playing both sides of the fence. He's "defending" (used loosely) against my comment while at the same time acknowledging exactly what I was saying as being plausible. And why was he answering for llama?

He's saying what he thinks is likely, but acknowledging that what you say is possible. Why is that so bad?

And there is usually nothing scummy about "answering for other people", "defending", etc.

It isn't even BW analysis. He is talking about how Fate and I had both cast two votes (at the time) with no follow up to why this is important. Maybe subtle suspicion isn't the way you read it, but I am a more cynical reader and comments like this look to me like he is saying "these two people are voting more than anyone else. Since I'm not going to comment on this, does anyone else think anything of this?"

By BW analysis, I mean that he is treating votes as sources of information in and of themselves.

With that in mind, my point is that for a player who is playing that

awful

way, it makes sense that they would note those sorts of things. When people do the "subtly plant suspicion" in the scummy sense, it's usually more explicit - ie. they might say "I'm not sure what to make of those votes". Simply stating that they had both cast two votes can't do that, because there is no way that that fact can lead to reasonable suspicion

Cop is without question the number 1 pick for spot 1. Every night you can basically confirm town, and have the best chance at catching scum. Which is better than vigging. Because vigging someone whose scummy but town is worse than getting a confirmation on them.

Moreover you’re going to be the #1 target for scum. So also our weak doctors target for night protections. So scum have to be aiming for our weak doctor all the while you’re confirming people.

Sure scum could go for this. And I drink a lot of wine when I look at G-man and what he’s done/said/is. Scum could go for it, and go for broke, only to nullify the single most powerful town role. But they’d have to be pretending to be a cop, giving a few results on whomever..Maybe even Nking a townie they confirmed or something, but they’d have to eventually give over a scum. Either bussing, or lying themselves. Moreover when/if the weak doctor was ever NK’d the cop would have to die the next night. And if they didn’t they’d be lynch fodder. Therefore (wine) sacrificing a weak scum to knock out the most powerful town role, doesn’t appear to be a bad idea. That is G-man, and I say this only because of his join-date.

Let’s just say if he didn’t pick cop, I’d like to lynch him right now relentlessly.

Guderian

did you pick Cop?

The above makes is just stupid.

First, it isn't at all true that cop would be the number one choice for town.

Second, a scum cop can cause massive confusion (through declaring innocent investigations) and generate a mislynch for scum (by claiming a guilty). In short, while a scum cop can't survive long-term, it is a viable choice for scum.

@llamafluff

Do you have any meta evidence for your professed preference for vanilla?

[vollkan]

Do you want game threads or MD threads? Multiple of both exist. Especially for the vig hate. I even adhere to the like for vanilla games to an extent as a mod, you were in that last mountainous-esq theme I ran

1 town game, and 1 md please.

And I accept your point that Popularity Mafia is relevant here, but I don't think the fact that you chose a setup is clear evidence of a broader attitude.

2 I just chose two numbers around the midway point, got around the area in the draft I wanted actually

You

wanted

to be towards the bottom?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: llama

xvart.

hahahahahahahahaha

You're scum

VOTE: xvart

If you're so sure he is scum, why not put in an explanation that would convince other people of it?

The Xvart wagon is really dumb, mostly because I can't figure out why so many people think he's scummy. Someone post a succinct analysis/summary of why xvart is being wagoned, because I would really like to know. I'm obviously opposed to his lynch (today) due to him not being a unique number, but I doubt the case against him has any substance.

=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtop ... 3#p2640883

Note that I've retracted the +5, since the role in question didn't exist

I would also say, and maybe I missed something in an earlier post of yours that explains this, but why does the fact that one player has a non-unique number make them less likely to be scum, as opposed to it simply being unlikely that they are scum with the person/s with whom they share the number?

Jack is scum

xvart is town
...
Ask and thou shall receive.

Please explain this one.

@Anybody:

Can somebody explain the Guderian-hate to me?

Because he doesn't say anything at all in that post. Nothing of any sort of substance. It's just a fluff comment: "yes this is likely, yes

As opposed to?

What business does SlowSilver have speculating on llama's internal motivations for wanting to be at the bottom of the list?

If you think a particular tell is invalid, there's normally no reason not to speak up.

Unless you think there is a good reason to wait and see how the other player responds.

/self-explanatory
Yeah... so many things wrong here. You're not voting... anyone... yet you call for a bandwagon. On a stupid BM vote. For no reason.

I don't get what the scumtell here is.

parama, that's quite a list you've got there.

Passive as hell.

@Guderian: What was the point of saying "that's quite a list"?

If youre trying to get scum lynched, maybe you should vote yourself, instead of me? Just a thought.

How about a FATE case on you?

1. the second letter of your name is an a
2. the second letter of mafia is an a
3. YOUR SCUM SPAM SPAM SPAM

Wow. You're really serious here? And you're still not voting. The lack of a vote is quite damning. If you think someone is scum... you vote them.

How on earth do you make that attack based on what he said? He says a clearly stupid comment "Vote yourself instead of me" and then makes a joke case. And yet, you present it like it's hypocrisy?

The fact that you changed your numbers is a scumtell in itself <____<

How?

This is just being dumb, but also a huge distraction. This may be the worst logic I've ever seen.

He's a newb and approaching VI territory - not scummy.

gandalf replaced in and thus didn't pick his numbers. So why is he saying "I don't know" when asked why he picked them?

unvote, vote:gandalf

*mental note to follow up if Gandalf doesn't answer*

[vollkan]

Do you want game threads or MD threads? Multiple of both exist. Especially for the vig hate. I even adhere to the like for vanilla games to an extent as a mod, you were in that last mountainous-esq theme I ran

1 town game, and 1 md please.

Most recent game I have some PR hate commentary in (was a mountainous one)

LOT more MD ones though with recent things, this one is probably the best since it was about three months ago and even refrences a game where I talked about the same stuff

If I had the ability between getting any known role or getting VT to take a role away from scum, I would be VT every game. I hate getting roles that much. They damage my play almost on the level of hostility in the thread.

Thanks, that's enough evidence for me/

xvart ISO #0 seems incredibly unstressed - in that the tone comes off as though
1. he doesn't care what others think of him
2. he's not trying to avoid attention
3. he's trying to play a social game
The first 2 are generally towntells, and the 3rd tends to give me town vibes as well.

2 I just chose two numbers around the midway point, got around the area in the draft I wanted actually

You

wanted

to be towards the bottom?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: llama

What makes that worthy of a vote?

Well... the game is called Pick you Power. The novelty of this game is that you get to... wait for it... pick your power. Someone who signed up for pick your power and

wanted

to be at the bottom of the list signed up for the wrong game. Either that, or has other motives; and by other motives I mean

scum

motives. Seriously, did anyone in this game want to be the last to pick their role?

While I don't agree with the logic, xvart sounds like he believes it here.

This is pretty much all the posting that came before my town read (the last quote is after but is logic backing up the first, thus worth noting). If I posted any more on the matter, it would be lying. And I don't care to waste time writing up walls on town reads, so I'm stopping here.
I will admit it's not one of my stronger town reads in light of recent xvart posts but I still stand by it.

On the first: You're seriously saying that a jokey first post makes somebody less likely to be scum? It's really a playstyle thing

On the second: I agree he seems to be strongly in favour of his point, but I don't see how that's a towntell. Scum also get easily excited when they see low-hanging fruit.

also of note, considering we are on this numerological path:

pyp2: (1,1), (3,7), (6,4), (7,2), (12,1)

pyp3: (2,12), (4,8), (5,4), (12,3), (13,7)

note the number of times the scum pick and x number not followed by a 1. it happens 8/10 times for the last two games. 80%. It would seem that not picking a one in the y value is an attempt to take suspicion away from the scum.

preview: hoopla, 0%.

HOLY SHIT.

DOES THIS POST NOT REEK: "Hey look I discussed Y numbers and how we should pick them in mah SCUM QT" TO YOU?

Not sure. He says it happens 80% of the time, so it's not a stretch to think scum are doing it out of a motivation. However, I can't work out how not picking one helps scum avoid suspicion.


Really not liking Gandalf's play around the claim. He clearly knows his predecessor chose the role, but then justifies it, less than 40 minutes later, as if he was the one who personally did the choosing with "I like investigative roles, but figured cop would already be taken."

Gandalf+10

Okay, so let's look at me as scum. I gave a reason for why I picked, even though I knew full well(according to your last post) that I didn't pick? Hoping that none of the 20 town players in this game would notice? Clearly I forgot that I had replaced in. So what the fuck happens to that point then? It dies. Because having forgotten that I had replaced in(which honestly, I have three different kinds of ADD. Thirty minutes is a longass time), coming up with reasoning as to why I picked gunsmith is a nulltell.

Anything that begins with "If I were scum" or some variation thereon is invalid.

And, in any event, you're ultimately asking us to believe that it is more likely that you would make up a reason as town. I can't see how, if you were in an honest frame of mind, you would be able to answer "Why did I pick this role" without realising "Oh wait, I didn't"

The most likely explanation, therefore, is that you panicked in wanting to justify it and so you lied

[vollkan]

Not sure. He says it happens 80% of the time, so it's not a stretch to think scum are doing it out of a motivation. However, I can't work out how not picking one helps scum avoid suspicion.

It's not a good idea to pick a high number. If you pick anything other than one, and the other person picks one, they win. If you pick one, and they don't, you win. If you both pick one, you have a 50% chance. The only time it could possibly help is if you are tripled (and ironically hoopla missed out on 1-shot governor based on this in pypII). But this is never obvious to people, scum on the other hand notice it. But then they can't all pick 1 as their y number because that would reveal them. So they pick it at the same rate town does. But this is not stuff that occurs to you if you haven't played the last few pyp's/talked about it with your scumbuddies in the qt.

Okay, that makes sense. Given his earlier "What if scum all picked 6?", it is implausible that he'd be able to work out something that subtle on his own.

Guderian+8

[vollkan]

What is the tell that SlowSilver was pushing? He didn't have a tell, he didn't call me scummy for my comment, he just posted a reason someone other than himself might have for something he did not do and would not know for certainty.

By "tell" I meant Llama's action being scummy. To rephrase, if SS didn't think it was scummy, it's reasonable for him to say so. There's also the obvious argument that it's sometimes better to let people respond for themselves, but in practice most people don't adhere to that strictly.

Are you saying you couldn't come up with that on your own if you weren't in PYP1-3 jack?

Jack +10

volkan +4!

You're copying my points system now?

If so, why do I only get 4, but Jack gets 10?

[vollkan]

Do you consider the points valid or not?

I'm sure no one cares you think that it is insincere. Explain how it is insincere, and why that translates into concrete arguments for being scum.

Your five posts are also hardly setting the world on fire.

preview: volk, thats four factorial. so actually 24. don't worry, you're way ahead. The points system is pretty fun I must say.

Why not actually respond to the question I asked? If Jack and I are making the same argument, why give us different points? The fact that you then spin mine as being "4 factorial" doesn't alter the discrepancy

The Hoopla-Fate debate is a trainwreck, so I want to focus on what I think is the most important post:

I wanted the Gunsmith to claim because there is a high likelihood of at least one scum being in the top four, and going by previous games, two is probably the likeliest exact amount. The situation is to be considered based on what information each alignment knows. Scum know if Gandalf is scum, so lets look at it from their perspective. If Gandalf is scum with them, then they likely have the Gunsmith at a different pick, in which case a Gunsmith-claim situation doesn't give scum any more info. If Gandalf is town, scum already have it narrowed down to most likely 1 or 2 spots regardless (depending on how many scum are above a hypo-town-Gandalf), or it's possible scum are the Gunsmith themselves above Gandalf. Regardless, we don't give scum much information they don't already have, whilst giving town more (on par with what scum has or nearly has). And even if scum only have it narrowed down to a 1 in 2 chance, they probably have better roles to kill/fish for (aka, those vigs). The whole idea of claiming gunsmith is to give us information scum already likely have. It's a net gain for town.

I have a few problems with the above, but I suspect it might be a consequence of you playing this game in a setup theory way and me having my more narrow focus on individual players, so I want you to respond before I award points:

First, you equate having the claim with "information" and imply that that's inherently good, but that's simplistic. Information only has value to the extent that it is useful. If scum are the GS,, then Gandalf's claim didn't give them any info. If they aren't, then it most likely did. However, while that information would be useful for scum, it has no use for town. A GS claim would only give us the following information: that X picked gunsmith. For the purposes of informing a lynch, that's useless.

Second, you're correct that scum have better roles to kill for. However, that completely ignores the fact that a confirmed GS is likely much more attractive than the mere possibility of hitting a better role.

[quote="Parama"
vollkan, responding to my Guderian case while he has barely responded himself makes it look like you're stepping in to defend him. While I understand that you may read him as town, he needs to defend himself. I don't care about your defenses to attacks that aren't on you.
[/quote]

Defending players is only potentially suspicious if the third-party defence hypothesises about the player's motivations.

eg.
Attacker: Why the hell would you do X?
Third-party: He probably did X for [non-scummy reason]?

The reason such defences are bad is because it covers up a potential scum mistake.

That's to be contrasted with the defence I made of Guderian here. His post was clearly a joke, but you unreasonably interpreted it otherwise. Aside from the negligible background risk that Guderian-scum might cock-up in responding, there was no reason not to defend here.

And I wish you would stop with the goddamn points already. They are completely arbitrary. Just a playstyle thing but it pisses me off every time I see you giving them out.

Deal with it.

First off, there is no x = 4,7,14,15
I know I am not scum (YES YOU ARE BLAH BLAH BLAH ok whatever), so I know scum do not exist in the 1 neighborhood.
so 1,4,7,14,15 are out. Now this list is unique, we have 10/22 46% numbers with x followed by a 1. In previous games, scum have only followed their x followed by a 1 20% of the time.

so If we assume a random spread, with no doubling up, (which almost everyone agrees is undeniably dumb (my all picking six kidding aside)) scum have the following numbers to pick from

2,3,5,6,8,9,10,11,12,13

Now bear with me. Something about gandalfs 'three adhd's or whatever' seemed to ring through. *cue calls of buddying.* Something about his posts seemed sincere. So for now I am going to eliminate 12 from this list.

Now, in previous games, scum have ALWAYS gone for 1,2. I see no reason this game would be different. Ergo, volkan is one of the scum. It also bodes well for this case that his y numbers is not a one.

You say you know you are town. That means that you had a town reason for picking X=1. I've already given by reason for picking X=2, and nobody has suggested it was in any way unreasonable or disingenuous. In short, the mere fact I chose X=2 is not scummy.

Where the scumminess comes in is something independent of my own behaviour. And it's at this point that the argument becomes disturbingly similar to something I hate - bandwagon analysis (ie. analysing voting patterns without analysing the reasons for the votes in question). But, in fact, this sort of analysis that you are doing is even worse - three games is not statistically significant in any respect, let alone when each game is not an independent statistical trial but, rather, something that the scum in each subsequent game have access to.

And, the same can be said for the rest of the post that I quote above. You're talking about different combinations of players in non-independent trials and reaching ridiculously simplistic conclusions. GIGO

Its not a horrible list, and its more evidence as to why he is town.

I don't see why it is evidence of towniness. Number-heavy play is not a towntell, especially when the statistical method is just garbage. While I am not accusing Guderian of being scummy for it (I want to see how he responds), number-heavy play is an easy way that scum can make their arguments appear objective and complex, thus avoiding a lot of debate.

[vollkan]

He is town because he not able to figure out exactly what is going on here. Look at his play, people get mad at his, he tried something. People get mad at that, he tries doing something else people seem to be suggesting. The pattern of trying to please his attackers and right what they are yelling at him for being wrong about is all there. He realizes that numbers are big, he goes for the other high ranks. People talk about neighborhoods, he makes a scum list based on them. This is the sign on town trying to fix what people are saying he is scummy for by scumhunting on that instead of what I think he would otherwise. If Gud was scum, he would be able to adjust a whole lot quicker then he is, and probably please people a whole lot faster. He seems to be flying solo, he thinks he finds a solution, sticks hard on it for five pages or so, gives up and tries something else. This man is not getting coached.

Not sure I follow you here. He is town because he tries to use a methodology that could be used against him against other people? What does "adjust a whole lot quicker" mean in this context?

As we move on, we have Ben trying to control the doctor, another really awesome thing right there. I would rather keep a midstrenght strong player with a PR alive over a weaker player with a better PR.

Another wierd thing that he is doing is assuming that the doctor MUST be town. There is only one way Ben can possibly know this (and of course he cant be the doctor because thats the second best role apparently and therefore second pick MUST have it), and that is Ben is scum.

What post/s is this in reference to?

Basically, voll, if you really are town (which atm I dont believe), then you should definitely consider someone in the 3's scum, because if not, then the lowest number scum picked would be 5. Does that make sense to you?

This may be a "me not liking big picture play" thing, but I don't see why I should assume one of them to be scum. There are good reasons for town to pick 3, and there are obvious reasons (both strategic and WIFOM) why aiming for middling numbers might be a feasible scum play. I really don't think it helps to apply, based on a precedent of three games with different people, rules as to where scum most likely are that ride roughshod over individual behaviour.

I'm not sure why you're voting xvart either, when there are several (if not all) other wagons that are better.

Which wagon do you like the most? Why is that wagonee scummy?

HE WHO MUST NOT BE NAMED is probably town. I find it funny that Volkan would make a case on him based on him wanting to policy lynch anti-town, and then goes on to make the rest of his case talking about how anti-town he is.

I think you mean llamafluff...

[vollkan]

volk: Which wagon do you like the most? Why is that wagonee scummy?

Ben or chk.

Since Ben posted his big post earlier, he has lurked. Actually, he has posted a few things with one line answers. In response to anything made against him, he has been quiet. It would look like he is hoping it will all wash over and he can move on to day 2 pretty easy. I would outline the points again, but Llama already did a good job of that.

vote: Benmage

I'm not sure why its so hard to get votes on either of these two. These last couple of days have dissolved into lots of semi-posts and appearances. Im not sure what to make of it all.

It's not an uncommon thing in this game for people to get burned out or get "mafia block". Some games have loads of material that can keep it sustained, and others kind of are more anemic.

@Ben

Do you agree that you are lurking? If so, why?

What is a better #1 pick?

Ben+5

"Hey person near the top of the list - what do you think would be a good power role to pick?"

Agreed. It would cause confusion. But eventually it would spell utter doom. And if/when the doc died and the #1spot/cop lived we guarantee their false alignment and lynch them.

1 scum lynch =/= doom

Basic CBA says that scum can justify that if they use their power to get another PR lynched, to keep the role away from town, and to create confusion through innocent investigations.

UGHHHH PUKE...This reeks of trying to be the professor of mafia. Explaining everything. Taking charge. Trying to sound like "oh wow, he knows what he's talking about he must be town". I've seen Adel and Percy try to act like this.

Not scummy.

Professor-ing is just something that certain players (myself included) do because we have strong theory views.

Le Cupcake
Benmage
slowsilver
inHimshallibe
Andrius

All 50, except Benmage who is (now) at 55.

[vollkan]

First, since my role has now been outed to the scum, I am the Gunsmith.

Second, an apology: I hadn't checked the thread for a while by lynch time, because I had several pages of reading mounting up, and I didn't catch the deadline for choice submission.

2. Didn't like volkans play. The fact that he parked his vote on xvart all day is really strange in my mind, especially when considering xvart didn't really throw off big scum vibes, and he had the opportunity to contribute or lend weight to any existing wagon. He had well written long winded posts that didn't accomplish much.

And another mea culpa: My highest scored person was Gandalf, on 60. In the post where I gave him 10 points, making him the highest suspect, I didn't change my vote over, by recollection because I wasn't sure if I had finished responding to all that I wanted to respond to. As in, I wanted to read to the end before I placed a vote, only then I forgot to.

I've really got no excuse for this, other than the fact that (and I have meta on this, though there are probably some people here who know this) I see votes as having very little importance in this game.

[vollkan]

hey volkan saijin would like to have a few fjckin words wwith you

Since your role is now know to all, would it now be prudent to claim your result as well?

Since you read my claim, would it not have been prudent to read my second sentence

Second, an apology: I hadn't checked the thread for a while by lynch time, because I had several pages of reading mounting up, and

I didn't catch the deadline for choice submission.

His iso 5. His iso 6.

Reading now, since haven't focussed on these yet:

This may be with the clarity of hindsight, but 5 is outrightly contradictory.

Inhim+10

. Voting Guderian because Guderian is slow to join what Inhim thinks is an apparently solid case on Gandalf makes no sense; it means he voted Guderian for a reason that was premised on Gandalf being scum.

6 (and 7 as well) compound it. If 6 REALLY IS WORTH THE USE OF CAPS LOCK, IT MAKES NO SENSE THAT HE WOULD STILL VOTE GUDERIAN *breathes*. Likewise, in 7 he again expresses really strong suspicion of Gandalf, but no vote.

Not voting yet, given I'm note sure what the VC is.

[vollkan]

Not voting yet, given I'm note sure what the VC is.

And on seeing Param's vote, checking the count, and realising this isn't one of my minis,

Vote: Inhim

[vollkan]

Unvote: Inhim

I'm finding vollkan very off putting as well. vollkan have you ever played nightless before?

Yeah. Ironically given my play here, I actually prefer it.

If this is true, that vollkan and Guderian aren't scum, that would mean no scum chose 1, 2 and 4 as their X number. I think it's quite unlikely a scumteam would go into a draft with their lowest number being a 5, purely on the basis that when fabricating randomness, you tend to favour a wider spread then what true randomness really is. It would feel unnatural to go with all mid-range/high numbers. I think the only way a strange set of numbers would have been picked is if someone familiar with number analysis (and believes in it) is leading the scumteam (Jack is most likely). But I doubt Jack is going to be scum, given his experience of being scum in PYP2. He knows how easy it is for scum to swap roles when fakeclaiming - I doubt he would have made Gandalf claim VT unless he's in a scumteam stripped of any real power.

I don't agree with on this being a towntell re: Jack (or any other experienced player). There's a huge wifom element involved: whether experienced scum would judge it better than Gandalf avoid lynch by appearing to be a genuine newbie or whether they think it better that they give him a fakeclaim.

I did ask vollkan the same question as hoopla pointed out today and he had a rather strange reply:

Basically, voll, if you really are town (which atm I dont believe), then you should definitely consider someone in the 3's scum, because if not, then the lowest number scum picked would be 5. Does that make sense to you?

This may be a "me not liking big picture play" thing, but I don't see why I should assume one of them to be scum. There are good reasons for town to pick 3, and there are obvious reasons (both strategic and WIFOM) why aiming for middling numbers might be a feasible scum play. I really don't think it helps to apply, based on a precedent of three games with different people, rules as to where scum most likely are that ride roughshod over individual behaviour.

What's your point exactly?

The SS wagon is bad. The closest thing to a case I can see is Guderian's 790. Point `1 of his I just have no idea about - stripping suspicions out of context and implying something about them is weak. Then it resorts to analysis based on the numbers, which I've already explained (in the quote above, conveniently) why I think it is a bad crutch. And finally "wishy-washyness" - which leads me to :

@SS

is that meta-consistent?

[vollkan]

Don't have time to write a long post atm, but I will say that I did submit an action last night (on Andrius), but my action "failed". I"m assuming this means that I was roleblocked.

[vollkan]

When did this game become a "let lurkers skate by"? Glork clearly showed that in LOTR mafia, mafia have a far greater incentive to lurk.

Simple question: how do you propose lurkers be dealt with?

unvote, vote:Le Cupcake

We aren't lynching the cop/gunsmith claims today.

Let's get the lynch in quick to get sajin killed.

have you posted a case against Cupcake?

[vollkan]

Of the high numbers, Cupcake is by far the best choice. If Fate is Role-cop and Elli is Neighborizer, then I think it's probable they're both town. I'm also down with netting a modkill on Sajin - he's in the top two scummiest players in the 6's (with Andrius).

Since the Neighbourising thing has now been revealed, there's something I wanted to raise in relation to Elli.

Some background: I recently finished a game called Murder at Hotel Death in which I was both scum and a neighbour (with non-scum). The strategy I employed in the neighbour thread was basically one of buddying, and it worked quite well right up until the end (the setup basically outed me as very likely scum).

With that in mind, I was kind of concerned by the fact that Elli said he picked me because he had an "ubertown" read on me. He's been saying as much in thread as well, but I wanted to raise this issue and ask

@Ellibereth:

what was the utility of targeting somebody whom you consider clearly town?

Calling out gandalf this game doesn't score you a lot of town points.

It shouldn't score any.

If a scumbuddy makes a serious error, it's generally very good scum play to jump on it. It avoids any charge of reluctance and ensures that the player gets any townpoints that may be (wrongly) given for the wagon.

I am Tracker not a watcher, and I saw Ellie hit Volkan N1.

Then what the hell was the point of the watcher claim?

I intend on ISOing Cupcake's play re Gandalf that Fate raised in an earlier post (I was searching for the 'case', and that's what I found).

ALso, I note that xvart being the scum-RB is consistent with the fact that I attacked him quite strongly earlier in the game and so he may well have considered himself a likely inv target.

[vollkan]

Yup, in Post #1005:

Don't have time to write a long post atm, but I will say that I did submit an action last night (on Andrius), but my action "failed". I"m assuming this means that I was roleblocked.

[vollkan]

Vanilla, went for jailkeeper.

Roleblock is a great ability to have, and no one bothered trying for it last game.

Roleblock is a good ability - but JK ruins it:
1) If you are town, you will only want to block somebody who is scummy
2) If you JK somebody who is scummy, you protect them
3) In almost any case, blocking scum < killing scum

JK is also only situationally useful at best as a protective role, since it significantly weakens the ability to protect power roles

Volkan why are you asking Ellie that HERE? Sounds like the sort of question for the neighbor QT.

Except for the fact that we are now in a massclaimed setup, so the rationale for asking one-on-one is nonexistent.

Also

@Everybody

I have not submitted my target yet.

[vollkan]

Confirming that I did indeed submit (after I read the posts which indicated that I could change my choice if need be).