Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day

[Furpants_Tom]

15 pages in 12 hours. Hrm, that'll teach me to be slow to pick up my PM.

Also: Hi everyone, didn't hear any noise, are we mass-claiming night actions at this point?

[Furpants_Tom]

Hey Tom! I'm excited about playing with you here!

Thanks! I know, I am an exciting guy, but I never get tired of hearing it. Especially when it's in the same sentence as "philately".

We are claiming if we warded somebody, and if we cowered (default no-action) or if we crafted a fetish.

Oh good, because I crafted a... Wait a minute, you cunning and handsome devil, you almost had me there! No insanities here, officer.

[Furpants_Tom]

I didn't like Furculow at first; but by Page 7, I agreed with him. I'm not umpiring between Fate and Benmage, I'd rather see if BenMage's claimed action eventuates. Lynching Fate (or Benmage, for that matter) robs us of information, no matter how teeth-gratingly annoying they both are. I wouldn't cry great big tears if we lynched BenMage tomorrow either way - because I don't like the idea of rewarding his obvious vendetta. Reading continues after the break...

[Furpants_Tom]

More post cherry-picking: I like SpyreX's #247. It's a fair call on AurousVox, and I salute him for scumhunting despite the background noise.

[Furpants_Tom]

Andrius #272, Plum #296, xvart #329 & #331, MoI #337 - mad props for commitment to sparkle motion, there. Fraid I can't match y'all.

ReaperCharlie - Eh, not sold on Seacore. I'll confess, I know him out of game, which might be flavouring it; but I had the same reaction reading those early posts as he did.

I'm still not sure about Furcolow's "confirmation". Yes, everything points that way, and he's not on my scumlist so far; but when you're trying to second guess mod mistakes, there's a strong chance that you're reading their moves the wrong way - seeing as how they don't have a win condition to filter it through. Keeping an open mind, here.

Love Percy's answer on Sadism. Would be willing to help engineer this situation for lulz.

Hito's #332. Yeah, fair point, I'll keep all my posts clumped together from now on.

By #342 I'm having trouble reading Andrius, due to my CAPSLOCK allergy. I'm sure he made many useful points.

My one thought of perhaps substantive use:
I don't think Hallucination belongs on that list of prohibited insanities; at least, not once somebody has heard unexplained noise at least once. There's a good townie deception play in fake-claiming hallucination; and it doesn't much of a mechanical benefit for cult from it, so far as I can see.

Wait, why is BenMage now not killing Fate?
Are we seriously going to let him claim a free insanity and not prove his townie-ness by following through on his threat? And we won't know if AV's scum until at least D3; so that's a fair while for all of us to live in doubt... I have no idea why scum would act like BenMage in the first place, but I can't help but think SpyreX is giving him an out. Maybe there is a fetish of Fate already out there, one not created by Benmage, who was actually stalking him. Maybe the cult is now concerned that more than one investigator with res kits will now be watching Fate's back; and would prefer this protective field dissipate. In that case, maybe you'd ask Benmage to commit publicly to NOT kill Fate, and then lead the charge to string him from the nearest tree at the start of Day 2, when Fate's body is found, scattered like sticky red confetti. Playing peacekeeper in this case is kinda suss, if you ask me.

Sorry, Seacore, I just don't see how Benmage's actions make for any sort of rational scum play. Even of the double/triple/quintuple bluff variety.

I'll

Vote: SpyreX

because I'm still not really sure why he's so sure both Benmage and Fate are town.

[Furpants_Tom]

Scumreads off the top of my head:
Furpants Tom
...

Number 1 with a bullet. Badass. It's a list of the people who have only posted to agree with other people, isn't it?

[Furpants_Tom]

why i'm an easy mislynch: scum want me gone, because I have them pegged
silly town players find my playstyle abrasive
good town players find my playstyle arrogant, self-indulgent, and moronic... but
GREAT town players find my playstyle effective, though crude, and generally keep me alive because I am so obvious due to meta

Thanks, Furcolow, I didn't realise I was a good player before.

How strong is this suspicion? I think this vote is reaching.

I have a strong suspicion that we're running down the same blind alleys into the same brick walls over and over. I'd quite like to discuss some other posters, and why they're acting the way they are.

One of the worse votes in the game...
Not taking a stab at my alignment+Criticizing someone else's read of my alignment=LE SCUMMMMMM.

I think you're more likely town than scum. I think Benmage is town. But I want to know why SpyreX is so sure you're both town that he's prepared to give Benmage an out on killing you. And I honestly don't think there's any point discussing the alignments of you or Benmage further, because it is infuriating and circular.

Love Percy's answer on Sadism. Would be willing to help engineer this situation for lulz.

So you would like to essentially wreck the game that Percy spend copious time putting together and many players have looked forward to for a long time simply for the lulz?

A number of folk seem to be keen to do it for much less...

As for giving Ben an out? YES I AM. He's already done an F-- job in picking suicidal. Going through with this is bonkers madness and HE REALLY SHOULD THINK OTHERWISE.

OK, fair enough. It's an explanation, at least; although I think Benmage fetishing Fate and claiming it as a stalk remains a real possibility. Why do you think it's not?

Town Alliance of Awesome

Quality work, beautiful to watch some of the most contested players in the game scramble to make it into the kool kids klub. Well trolled.

[Furpants_Tom]

OK, fair enough. It's an explanation, at least; although I think Benmage fetishing Fate and claiming it as a stalk remains a real possibility. Why do you think it's not?

Fate, Destroyed by an Unspeakable Being N1

Yes, if he was planning to claim it as a murder (although, he may not have realised the flavour was different, either). If he was always planning to back off and promise not to kill Fate, it's a great way of ensuring he's unguarded, and explaining a useless action and an insanity. Surely that's a possibility?

[Furpants_Tom]

We're only missing

Furpants

claim for the final list.

Sorry, thought I had.

Didn't ward.

Mom the other kids were chucking bricks at cars on the highway … what did you expect me to do not join in?

Oh man, we're playing car-brick and no-one told me?

I can't believe that I am saying this, but I think letting the kill go through would be good for the town, even if Fate is town. This early in the game a confirmed non-cultist would be very beneficial to the town, as it is one less person that is possibly scum (yes I realize that was very repetitive). After that, I think we should put BenMage on Grave Robbing duty, which there is a limit to the number that you can do in one night, last game it was 2. If anything BenMage should be warded tonight to prevent the scum from killing our possible confirmed town.

Our of curiousity; do you think it'd be more beneficial to have a confirmed townie; or one less scum skill in the game? Because if we rez Fate tonight and the cult decides to cover for him by using their ritual to fake a murder, then instead of two dead townies, we have none. Seems to me like this would be the ideal outcome...

[Furpants_Tom]

Agree with whoever said push on furc was probably scum generated.
Consider two oddest furc commentors to be Seacore (oddly insistent in spite of really solid furctown case) and Feysal (had huge wall post where Triglav could swear he was talking out of both sides of mouth at once, had to re-read to see if we could even understand what stance he was taking)

See that's the thing that makes me wonder about Seacore. Surely, by the point where Seacore is basically pushing the cart alone (#445 or so), his scum-team would have been telling him to back off, right? The lack of wiggle-room he's given himself really makes him sound more like tunnelled town to me. Furcolow manages to give it a bit more momentum through aggressive rage-flail, but there's no obvious scummy support at that point; so I can't see it as part of a co-ordinated plan. If he's scum, the time-zone difference must be playing havoc with their ability to co-ordinate a plan.

Re: Feysal's post - are you talking about #504 or #539? I'm not sure I can see the logical inconsistency you're talking about. His position on Furcolow is that the mistake is such an unlikely cult gambit that it virtually confirms his townieness, even if it is logically possible he's scum, right? Where's the red flag?

[Furpants_Tom]

I think I'm switching my vote from AV to Baby Spice or Bowser, whoever has more votes

even though voting BabyS would mean I'm on the same wagon as Benmage

.

Well, that's nice, dear. Any particular reason you'd care to share with us?

[Furpants_Tom]

Dumb case is dumb. Fate is annoying and overly sure of himself; sadly, there's no town win condition to do with thread aesthetics. I've run out of useful questions for SpyreX, though, so it's not fair to hold my vote there. Out of those tingling my scumdar and not already dogpiled, I choose Bowser. SSBF's recent post summed up the mystery wrapped in not-paying-attention flavor he's giving out, so I have a question: Hey Bowser, what's your opinion of rewq?

Vote: Bowser

[Furpants_Tom]

Bit curious about this Seacore wagon, now. What's the purpose? We've got 8 days to go, there's no information you guys particularly seem to be looking for from him, and yet you're happy to take much of the pressure off other suspects who haven't talked so much - like Bowser, <redacted> and <redacted>, for example.

Attention: Trilobite and hitogoroshi

, very interested in your votes in this regard.

P.S. Rethought pinging my other scumreads on the preview screen; since I'm not ready to explain them. One at a time, easy as she goes.

[Furpants_Tom]

I don't want more walls of rubbish, I'd rather you thought up a decent question you wanted Seacore, Bowser, or anyone else to answer, and then asked it. Succinctly.

But a quick day is a scum day, I don't fancy snipping a week off because you've gotten jack of the posting habits of the rude and voluble denizens of WIFOM alley.

[Furpants_Tom]

Also... not sure why you expect us to ask questions of Seacore. Is it impossible that we understand his play and simply see scum motivation behind what he's doing?

If you don't want to ask Seacore a question, why aren't you asking someone else a question? It's great that you think you've caught scum, but there are a dozen players in this game (including, I'd say, me) who have contributed 7/8's of bugger all to the conversation. If you're still alive on Day 5, you're going to wish you'd pinned them down to a few more positions, and left them a little less wiggle room for the strange and disconcerting things they've casually dropped into the conversation (lest they be called lurkers).

Forget Seacore for a while and get Socratic, baby.

[Furpants_Tom]

Out of those tingling my scumdar and not already dogpiled,

I choose Bowser.

Italics wants a friend to explain why its there.

Because there's no point throwing more questions at people who are already being interrogated adequately. I'm looking for people who are ducking attention.

[Furpants_Tom]

Questions and votes aren't lovers. They can and do exist without each other. Much like how I asked you this!

Questions without votes are fine, when people you're asking questions of are answering. Seems like Bowser could use a little nudge to contribute.

Out of those tingling my scumdar and not already dogpiled, I choose Bowser.

Soooo you're pretty clearly saying one of the huge wagons is someone you think is scum.

I'm sure missing words that back that up.

I'm also saying that I think there are other, non-wagonned people I think might be scum. But I don't have any reasonable basis to point fingers yet, nor do I think I'll extract more information for town by putting more pressure on players already under pressure from others.

[Furpants_Tom]

Ok, I'm tired and have to sleep.

But I'm not seeing at ALL how:

Out of those tingling my scumdar

and not already dogpiled

, I choose Bowser.

=

I'm also saying that I think there are other,

non-wagonned people

I think might be scum.

My statement implies that the total group of players is divided in two ways:

Group A = People I think are probably scum
Group B = People I think are probably town
Groups A + B are exclusive.

Group 1 = People who are dogpiled
Group 2 = People who are not dogpiled
Groups 1 + 2 are exclusive, but both can co-exist with A or B.

Bowser has been selected as a representative of both Group A and Group 2.

[Furpants_Tom]

I think you're more likely town than scum. I think Benmage is town. But I want to know why SpyreX is so sure you're both town that he's prepared to give Benmage an out on killing you.

Oh yeah, why would you try to prevent town from killing likely town. Um, what?

This is wilful misunderstanding on your part. I'm asking why SpyreX is so sure they're both town. And he goes on to give me a decent answer, which I think was of benefit to the town.

[Furpants_Tom]

Cult needs the fetish of an individual in order to target them with the ritual. Alternatively, they can send the fetish back to its progenitor and give them an insanity instead.

[Furpants_Tom]

I don't want to move away from Bowser just yet; but Reaper, why did you post that as a question instead of looking back at the rules?

[Furpants_Tom]

That's all well and good HOWEVER that wasn't what I was saying. If you think someone being wagoned is scum and someone not being wagoned is scum why, every time thus far, is it the dude with no wagon thats getting a teehee vote?

Because there's no point throwing more questions at people who are already being interrogated adequately. I'm looking for people who are ducking attention.

[Furpants_Tom]

People playing from their phones/E-readers

: do push-button spoiler tags work alright for you?

Can't read them on a Blackberry Bold, sorry.

[Furpants_Tom]

Re: Trilobyte - the fact that Bowser still hasn't surfaced IS quite scummy, even at this stage of the game. But clearly, my question's not getting answered. So I have another one:

Hey kunkstar7, what do you think of Plum?

[Furpants_Tom]

Re: Trilobyte - the fact that Bowser still hasn't surfaced IS quite scummy, even at this stage of the game.

Why is it scummy and not flaky? What are your thoughts on the RC wagon?

Because flakes usually bob up to the surface when they're called out. Especially if a wagon starts. Or they contact the mod and ask for a replacement. Bowser has done neither, although we know parts of it has posted elsewhere on the site. It takes strong nerves and a good reason not to respond to posts directly questioning you.

Also I was serious about your Spy questioning. I think I blinked and missed it. Any help?

Wait, why is BenMage now not killing Fate?
Are we seriously going to let him claim a free insanity and not prove his townie-ness by following through on his threat? And we won't know if AV's scum until at least D3; so that's a fair while for all of us to live in doubt... I have no idea why scum would act like BenMage in the first place, but I can't help but think SpyreX is giving him an out. Maybe there is a fetish of Fate already out there, one not created by Benmage, who was actually stalking him. Maybe the cult is now concerned that more than one investigator with res kits will now be watching Fate's back; and would prefer this protective field dissipate. In that case, maybe you'd ask Benmage to commit publicly to NOT kill Fate, and then lead the charge to string him from the nearest tree at the start of Day 2, when Fate's body is found, scattered like sticky red confetti. Playing peacekeeper in this case is kinda suss, if you ask me.

...
I'll

Vote: SpyreX

because I'm still not really sure why he's so sure both Benmage and Fate are town.

(Admittedly, not phrased as a question)

As for giving Ben an out? YES I AM. He's already done an F-- job in picking suicidal. Going through with this is bonkers madness and HE REALLY SHOULD THINK OTHERWISE.

OK, fair enough. It's an explanation, at least; although I think Benmage fetishing Fate and claiming it as a stalk remains a real possibility. Why do you think it's not?

[Furpants_Tom]

Oops, forgot your RC question. I was pinging on his bravado and buddying earlier; but I don't like the reason this wagon's formed. I think his "slip" is a null tell, because it's overtly bad play for either town or scum; and I think the speed of the wagon has more to do with Seacore grasping at straws and people who change their deeply held opinions every five minutes leaping onto the latest pressure point.

I'd like to know what you think of it, too; but I'd also very much like to know what totallynotmafia thinks of ReaperCharlie and his wagon.

[Furpants_Tom]

Actually, that reminds me; I never did get an answer to the follow-up question.

As for giving Ben an out? YES I AM. He's already done an F-- job in picking suicidal. Going through with this is bonkers madness and HE REALLY SHOULD THINK OTHERWISE.

OK, fair enough. It's an explanation, at least; although I think Benmage fetishing Fate and claiming it as a stalk remains a real possibility. Why do you think it's not?

It's a bit stale now, I know, but is there anything you'd like on the record, SpyreX?

[Furpants_Tom]

@Fur:

Because the kill flavors are different and that makes no sense. None. Zero.

I think I'd probably better be "Tom" or "Furp", because there's already a "Fur" or "Furc"
Yes, the flavours are different; but he can claim his murder was rezzed away - as, in fact, we're already planning to allow him to do.

And, now that things are getting settled still cool with lowballs at wagons that aren't going anywhere or are you going to come out and say which person actually wagoned is scum?

Nope, not unless I find a better reason to add fuel to the fire than my unreliable gut instinct. But you already know it's not Seacore.

[Furpants_Tom]

Fair enough. That's basically where I thought you were going from your original post, which is why I didn't chase the question down earlier. To paraphrase: It's such a terribad, risky scum plan that it's not worth factoring it into your analysis, therefore Ben should be assumed town. Therefore there's no real need to call his bluff, especially if it puts a probably townie in danger (Fate). Amirite?

And I apologise to Fate for resurrecting the issue, won't do it again.

[Furpants_Tom]

I'll stop posting for a while after this, I promise; but here's a quick stocktake of questions I've asked of specific players that have not been answered yet (though the last two are very recent):

rewq

: #727 Do you think it'd be more beneficial to have a confirmed townie; or one less scum skill in the game?

Bowser:

#882 What's your opinion of rewq?

Kunkstar7

: #1106 What do you think of Plum?

totallynotmafia

: #1112 What do you think of ReaperCharlie and his wagon?

[Furpants_Tom]

I think the post was early on in the period I was off playing Bloodbowl

Playing Dwarves = Scum
Playing Goblins = Lying scum, actually playing Dwarves

[Furpants_Tom]

@Furpants: Nothing I recall strikes me as suspicious off the top of my head, but just getting out of under my load of homework, so will reread Plum. Is there any specific reason why Plum?

Because you and she haven't interacted at all, as far as I can see. Furthermore, you're relatively quiet, and she consistently makes peoples' "pro-town" lists - both of which I consider interesting characteristics.

[Furpants_Tom]

I would say Plum is probably town, she is keeping up, contributing content, her votes are consistent with her words.
What about her making pro-town lists is interesting to you? I would hold that hito makes most pro-town lists, is that interesting in the same manner?

Pro-town lists are useful, because townies normally post their reads as best they can, and scum normally post actual townies with only one or two scum thrown in. DGB's list might be the exception because of its length. Establishing what people perceive as trustworthy about these players is extremely helpful when trying to figure out when their later logical flaws are due to emotion, rather than malice.

Yes, I find hito interesting for the same reasons.

You're thinking of active lurkers with this. When I say “flaky” I mean someone who has left the game and not bothered to tell anyone about it. That's what Bowser has done. If they were active lurking I'd be with you, but they aren't. The two things are very different.

I would disagree with you, but you're probably right. I only just noticed this in his sig:

UT head has limited access until the 30th

CSL head is currently LA until further notice

Can you explain to me why Bowser over say Andrius or manho ?

I hadn't gotten to them yet. Still, I'm more interested in rewq and kunkstar, because Andrius' does post regularly, (although hiscaps-posting is a real disincentive to talk to him), while manho is a replacement and has a good reason to still be catching up.

We're against the RC wagon and pretty much agree with what you said about his “slip” in that we don't think it is very much of one at all. All in all it feels like an opportunistic wagon when we have much better avenues to pursue. Namely Seacore and LB. Do you think Bowser is a better lynch than RC?

No, not any more. Mainly because of his sig. I think that RC is lynchable, because of his off-the-charts buddying and wagon-ridin' (though, as you mention, this wagon is suspect); while I guess I have to downgrade my read on Bowser to null.

Unvote: Bowser

[Furpants_Tom]

Any chance we could ease up on the "ironic"/"humorous" misogyny?

[Furpants_Tom]

-Why no threat to Furpants who we were agreeing with and talking to about the RC wagon?

I think he felt guilty about not inviting me to his game of car-brick.

Re Furc's special insanity privledges:

Well yes, I agree; and I think most people agree with the concept that more info helps town. Licensing Furc to go off and be Special Agent on whatever mad plan he likes is not ideal; but the problem is that now we've all (more or less) agreed that he's probably town, we're not going to lynch him. And if he knows we're not going to lynch him, we have absolutely no way to compel him to obey us.

Okay, so now what? Lets say you had a day vig shot right now and could shoot anyone, who would you pick and why?

It'd be RC. I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst. Which is probably not really a valid reason for holding back at this point of the day, really. For tracking purposes, I suppose I should add:

FoS: ReaperCharlie

A question for Vasudeva, though

- at what point did you become certain that hitogoroshi is town; and why?

[Furpants_Tom]

Well, that's compelling. Maybe you might chance people's minds if you told them why?

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst.

Oh yay a Speed of the Wagon argument. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. I can point out MANY examples that prove Day 1 wagon can and do form quickly on Scum (in fact see my Day 1 wagon in Invitational 8. The calls of ‘Speed of the Wagon’ helped me stave of my lynch).

I read some fence-sitting here waiting to see which way the wind blows.

I'm sorry to hear that you suffer the terrible afflictions of selective blindness and premature post-snipping.

I'm not going to vote just yet, because I'm currently at work, and I need some time to put my thoughts together and see if they make sense written down; but the only thing dissuading me from a Reaper vote is the speed at which the wagon formed, and the catalyst.

Which is probably not really a valid reason for holding back at this point of the day, really.

I remain happy to concede that this is not a valid reason not to vote for ReaperCharlie.

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm sorry to hear that you suffer the terrible afflictions of selective blindness and premature post-snipping.

Thanks for validating my opinion as posted in response to Trilobyte. Moving on …

I remain happy to concede that this is not a valid reason not to vote for ReaperCharlie.

Pointless double-speak attempt to look cute. Noted.
[/quote]

Raging misanthopy getting you down? Neighbours calling the cops every time you make a phone-call to your loved ones? Mumbling winos in bus shelters shuffling away from you as you approach? Try new

Passive Aggression (tm)

!

Mmm... subtle hints of misquoting followed with the rich aftertaste of flail. Pick up your MoI sampler pack of

Passive Aggression

(tm) today!

Fact is FOSing him is a worthless move. You staged your statement as a way to vote for Reaper after you ‘got your thoughts together’ if the wagon looked solid and Town acceptable or simply to go a different direction if you decided it wasn’t in your best interest, IMO.

Quite frankly if you were sure you wanted to get your thoughts together you could have simply waited until you weren’t at work as opposed to making the post you did.

You're absolutely right. I should ignore questions for as long as possible and immediately vote without explanation. After all, I am a man of the sheeple.

[Furpants_Tom]

I give myself +1000 hipster points for irony.

[Furpants_Tom]

Alright, here's why I'm going to vote for RC.




Speaking of which, here's where I start to get suspicious:

Buddying, ReaperCharlie-style

I just want to say that

just once

, I would like to see furcolow NOT lynched on Day 1.

He is often a valuable asset to the town if left alive. Not to mention an unlikely nightkill.

Sooooo as a personal request I would like you guys to unvote him. It's just his style.

Noises/Ward List 1.01...

Sexy.

I will comment later on why I want Furcolow alive.

Too much Benmage and Fate back and forth.

Vote: Magna

Love this post. HAHA. But vote Seacore, we'll win a lot easier with him gone.

...

Ben: Making them lose an action, lose a res. kit, confirming you as town (unless they decide not to perform the ritual) AND letting us lynch someone else today - that's a pretty sweet deal for the low, low price of one insanity. Seems to me that the biggest reason to oppose that is "I actually used Craft Fetish and not Stalk." Savvy?

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

somebody hand this man a dozen roses.

I'm looking at you, fate

#187 by Magna is pretty awesome.

...
100% right on the money. furc keeps pointing out a lot of stuff that people are stupid to have missed.

furc is by far the most pro-town player in the game at this point despite any suspicion i may have expressed earlier.

...

k i take it back, rewq's 230 is pretty awesome.

...

k i take it back again, kunks 244 basically crushes rewq's 230. lulz

just because your brolite and calling me a brofessional does not mean that you are bro-town

LMAO. best post of the game so far.

...
are u trying to get a brolliance with me/rc?
im so up for that

...

Other members of the alliance are Fate and Andrius. (and Vas, since Andy wouldn't join without him).

...

Hey to [..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ..., ] Lord Voldemort

*tips hat*

#275 is WIN. but maybe, he's just excited... *checks the fridge for some salmon*

...

btw, awesome avatar Baby Spice <3 avatar avatars.

...

You seem to have a fetish regarding Furc (pun intended, sorry, but the point stands).

ohhhhh ho ho HO! *devilish laugh*

in addition to the cut of your jib, i likes the sound of your town(ish posting).

also: having Magna was quite helpful as well, his gambit at the end was SWEEEEET; we about shat our pants at how well he pulled it off. Nobody Special never saw it coming. I felt so bad for him dude. HAHAHA <3 magna

7. WHAT SUSPICION ON HITOROGOSHI? I HAVE REPEATEDLY SAID THAT HE IS AWESOME AND PRO-TOWN AND HAVE AGREED WITH NEARLY EVERY POST HE'S MADE! Oh wait... you must be talking about

my post #302

... OH WAIT I F@#%&ING EBWOP'D IT LIKE 5 SECONDS LATER IN THE VERY NEXT POST.

AV's 568 is pure win.

I could sheep that.

Plum. For the record, I always liked you. (well, a little bit).

Noises/Ward List 1.03

Mmmm, spicy and delicious.

/likes VP Baltar

(Response to Feysal's #767):

^the above post is awesome and pro-town and I approve.

This paragraph in #779 is beautiful. And overall I get the awesometown feel from most if not all of #779.

Furc, hito, plum, say hello to AWESOMEALLIANCE member #5... welcome to the group, SSBF.

(SSBF's replacement post):

Also, that sucks that you're replacing out. Stay in PLEASE if you can.

You are one of the best townies I know and I NEED YOU.

At page 22...

Love this guy. This post drips town.
He appears to be a good pick for the Alliance.

5. I think SSBF's point against Triglav was awesome, and I also hate Lost Butterfly's schizophrenia. That's not a contradiction, so shove it up your @$$.
...

8. Furcolow, don't let them pull the wool over your eyes bro. Especially after I saved you from the wolves!!! (blatant AtE, <3)

Town:

Furcolow, hitorogoshi, ME DUH, SSBF/nopoint, Plum, and I'm seesawing on Furpants Tom.

________________________________________________________________________________________

Plenty of these are fairly innocuous on their own. It's more the frequency and consistency of his "I agree, you're great" posts that I think is the issue. For example, it's fine to complement xvart on posting his first list; but why is he the only player to positively comment on it twice? He seems to like Hito for backing up his defence of furc (which begins before furc is "mod-cleared", for the record); but the consistent buddying on SSBF and Plum are less clear. He turns on Hito briefly, when he thinks Hito might pick up a pro-town graverobbing gig, but quickly re-establishes hito as a pro-townie, despite never removing the FoS. He compliments and then reverses position on xvart, Magna, and AV when they disagree with him on Seacore. And possibly Baltar, although I'm not sure if he's joking there or not.

However, his posts after #1103 are dramatically different. No more compliments, no more "you're rad, I'm rad, let's team up", he switches over to pure attack mode, apart from a half-arsed "protect Furc after my death" in #1225. Correct me if I'm wrong, Magna, but I'm pretty sure this is what you're referring to as his change of meta.

Bravado & Credibility Questing

I'm not going to go through this in the same fashion; but the constant "I'm a townie, I'm awesome" theme in ReaperCharlie is concerning. Why does a townie care so much whether people think he's a townie or not? Maybe that's just how he plays; but there's more:

I HEARD NOISE.

Negative. I searched for a Resuscitation Kit.

ReaperCharlie is the very first person to claim noise/no-noise; and the first person to claim equipment. In both cases, he does so before the town decides this is a good idea. At the time, I dismissed this - I thought it was a bit dumb to lead the field with that kind of information - especially when his particular combination - noise + medkit - means that the cult probably has the fetish it needs to kill him, has a good reason to try, and will suceed automatically if he attempts to use his kit. Dumb, definitely; but what becomes apparent to me later is that this is the start of a determined search for credibility.

Fate/Benmage is interesting. Out of the two, I'm pretty sure Benmage is scum.

Either that, or they both are. The distancing from both sides seems pretty obvgay.

Vote: Benmage

for now. Let's see what happens in the rest of my read.

Seacore's post #120 is quite juicy and was begging me to sink my teeth into it:

Is there a way to filter Benmage and Fate out from all the other posts?

trying to play the annoyed townie.

In other news, anybody who things I'm cult

with Fate just because I disbelieve Benmage has perfect meta

is a moron.

SEACORE IS SCUM. CULT. WHATEVER. HE NEEDS TO GO.

Unvote; Vote SEACORE.

A wagon! Let's go! This is the first post in which ReaperCharlie addresses Seacore; and it's, frankly, rubbish. 250 posts into the game, Seacore busily engaging in verbal fisticuffs with a couple of players that RC has tagged as cult exactly 9 posts previously, and this is the argument?

The rest of the Seacore case is ludicrously poorly executed; but for me, it's the absolute lack of clarity about where such a strong cult read begins that really tips it.

Makes sense. But this post gives me the willies. Bad willies.

It sounds like hito is fishing, trying to say "lets pick a really TOWN townie... wink wink ME derp"
But he doesn't actually SAY it outright, meaning he's waiting for somebody else to suggest that he do it.

Which is exactly what I thought when I read it:
- Why don't we just have you do it, Hito?
- OH WAIT. WHY DIDNT YOU JUST SUGGEST YOURSELF? HMMMM
- OMFG THIS MOFO MIGHT JUST BE REALLY SMART SCUM. sooo

Very Reluctant FoS (which will probably earn me a few tomatoes in the face): hitorogoshi

Well, maybe. Except that Hito is right at the top-top-top of your buddying tree, next to the unimpeachable Furcolow. So, why do you...

And now, of course, I MYSELF volunteer to be the one to rob the graves.

Oooooh, right. No dice, pardner.


As noted, I think this wagon came from a strange place; and I distrust the motives of a few of the early joiners; but I do think that RC's behaviour today has been more consistently suspicious than any other single player.

Vote: ReaperCharlie

[Furpants_Tom]

I don't recall pursuing your lynch that long.

Tomorrow when you're dead... I mean my "shindig" turns out to be an act. And I'm not?confirmed town. It would've been wise to have not?warded me.

Is anyone else confused by this post? Ben, are you saying we should ward you tonight or not? And what's the "shindig"?

[Furpants_Tom]

Shazah Furpants-eth! What dost thou thinketh of my caseth to MoI-eth?

At first glance, I like it, a lot. However, I don't really know if that's because he's scum, or just because he's been behaving like a pompous bully. I suspect the latter. Although I think his behaviour has been bad for the town, I don't believe that it's an automatic scumtell, and he has put his finger on a number of genuinely good points over the day. I wouldn't be happy to lynch him today without further evidence.

[Furpants_Tom]

Not to defend your claims of buddying; and I'm hesitant to say anything in defense of RC, but the record should show that I don't really see these comments as buddying. RC and I have been in a couple of games where similar lists have been made, so that accounts for the banter back and forth regarding the lists, color coding, sexy, etc.

On its own, I agree. As part of the pattern, it's another red flag:

Plenty of these are fairly innocuous on their own. It's more the frequency and consistency of his "I agree, you're great" posts that I think is the issue. For example, it's fine to complement xvart on posting his first list; but why is he the only player to positively comment on it twice?

What are your thoughts on Fate? Have you explicitly stated them somewhere?

Not in any great detail. In response to Fate, I wrote:

I think you're more likely town than scum.

And I've seen nothing to change my mind on that. He's seesawed back to aggressive self-defence; which seems about right for a townie explicitly targetted for death N1. I think scum, being able to guarantee a res, would be more likely to swing back to a more fatalistic mode, or concentrate more on the implications of them surviving the night.

[Furpants_Tom]

Hell, what do

you

think of me???

I'm unsure, leaning towards town. Straight out of the box, you and hitogoroshi made a lot of player's pro-town lists. However, unlike hitogoroshi, I couldn't see, and can't subsequently find, any good reason for that in your case. Which, to my mind, probably means that you're town, and your reputation is strong enough that a number of scum have immediately targetted you as a potential buddy. If you were scum, they'd be a lot cagier about absolving you of cultic tendencies, I think. And once that kicked off, positive reinforcement and repetition pulled a lot of townies along for the ride.

On the other hand, I suppose it's possible that a whole stack of VIs decided you were town because they really wanted to believe a player of your caliber was on their team. But I really, really hope that's not so.

Re: the Ben/Fate fiasco

It doesn't matter what he promises, I think he's going to try and kill Fate tonight. So if we lynch BenMage:

1. We lynch a townie (I believe there's a 90% chance Ben is not cult)
2. Cult NKs a townie (barring medical intervention)
3. No-one is cleared.
4. Information about Ben/Fate's argument might be slightly more useful.

If we don't:

1. We may lynch either a townie or a cultist
2. Ben tries to murder Fate, and is blocked by a medkit (I would put my house on at least one player rezzing Fate tonight.)
3. Cult NKs a townie, who may or may not be Fate (barring medical intervention)
4. No-one is cleared if it is Fate. Ben is cleared if it isn't Fate, unless they're both sekrit scum.
5. Information about Ben/Fate's argument might be slightly more useful.

In scenario 1, there are two dead townies; and we know nothing extra about D1's shennanigans.
In scenario 2, there is at least one dead townie, but we may also catch a cultist, and an attempted murder DOES actually clear BenMage. We don't know that the cult has a fetish for Fate, after all; it might be unable to ritual him. And even if it does, that's their ritual, used up, so someone else gets to live.

Unless you really, truly, think BenMage is cult (or more likely to be cult than any other player), there's just no good reason to lynch him tonight.

[Furpants_Tom]

Right city; but not my code. Why do you ask?

[Furpants_Tom]

Hito needs to respond, then Benmage needs to post promising either way, then I will PM the mod and explain in thread why a modkill needs to occur.

Please wait for the Mod's response to your PM before posting anything in thread. If you make this game unplayable after more than 1600 posts, you will be responsible for one of the worst mental health terror attacks this planet has yet seen.

[Furpants_Tom]

Why did you post that before hearing from the mod? If that information is enough to get you both modkilled, it's enough to skew the game. Fan-freaking-tastic.

[Furpants_Tom]

CD2

Username: Furpants_Tom

Did you Hear Noise? Yes

Did you Ward? If so, who? No

Did you gain Insanities, and if so, which ones and from what actions? No

List all of the insanities you currently have: None

Did you

successfully

resuscitate? No

Were you murdered? Apparently not

Did you Commune or Investigate? No

I don't think there's a huge advantage to be gained by dispatching either of our bleached comrades just now. It'd be interesting to know what ReaperCharlie's alignment was; but we can already make a pretty educated guess that he was town from what we know about Fate's offence. Fate's confusing - but I think the "tactical advantage" he was modkilled for was simply proving that he was town. If the advantage was getting a free kill on a townie, then he could have had that simply by staying on the RC wagon.

Given we think they're both probably town, I think they should stay alive. No need to put more potential corpse-dust into circulation, no need to take more insanities on townies. And if Lost Butterfly turns out to be cult, we could have a significant numbers advantage at this point - 0 townies dead for 1 cult - there's no need to help them even the score.

[Furpants_Tom]

Yeah, barring new leads, I'd be ok with a BenMage lynch. Probably he's an investigator, but by lynching him, we keep another investigator alive. Neutral at worst.

Hey Ben, without telling us who you're stalking, can you tell us what you're looking for in scum? What convinces you someone would be a good idea to stalk? I might change my mind if it sounds convincing...

Vote: BenMage

[Furpants_Tom]

Sigh, let's not spend another day talking about lynching a prob-investigator. There are several good scum suspects that can and should be pursued. Shutting down benmage with grave robs for tonight and probably one night in the future is going to do more than enough to make it impossible for him to win if he tries to go murderer.

Except that he's going to pay exactly the same amount of attention to the wishes of the town tonight as he did last night. None. The graves he's assigned will get robbed; but not by Benmage, who's going to be busying killing a townie.

[Furpants_Tom]

If you have anything better on MoI than "he was rude about VV's case", I'm more than happy to change my mind. You know I'm not a fan of his behaviour in Day 1. But until someone sets out a good case for another player being scum, BenMage is a good pick for tonight's impromptu Spandau Ballet tribute performance.

[Furpants_Tom]

They were probably targeted by occult books, forensic tools or a res kit on the second night.

[Furpants_Tom]

That's not a bad idea, but you should definitely

not

claim what kind of equipment you used.

[Furpants_Tom]

Eh, I guess I should begin. I created noise for kunkstar7.

[Furpants_Tom]

Precisely. Unless there's something positive to claim, no-one's cleared, so there's no advantage tipping what kind of equipment you have.

[Furpants_Tom]

Benmage can be controlled tonight with graverobbing; if he doesn't, we will lynch him, and I'm sure you'll be happy. In the meantime you haven't responded to other things I've noted from you which make no sense.

Given that he didn't do what we told him last night, what makes you think he's controllable tonight? The only way we're going to stop him killing a townie is to threaten him with a hemp neck-massage today unless he gives us his target, and we have to be serious about it. Yesterday, he was toothless, because we knew who he was going to kill, and had rez kits available to stop it. Today, he's not answering anyone's questions about his target, and he's explicitly said he plans to go through with it. Why let him? If you can think of a way to control him, I'm all ears.

[Furpants_Tom]

Also, Benmage must reveal his target and continue his kill today to prove that he's investigator.

How many times do I have to say this? He's not going to tell you anything, unless you actually put your money where your mouth is, and vote for him.

[Furpants_Tom]

Benmage claimed stalking Fate D1
Benmage pushed for Fate lynch ( perhaps because he’s been stalking LB )
Benmage claimed stalking unknown D2 ( parhaps because he murdered LB )
= Benmage is NOWHERE cleared as investigator unless he goes through with his promised kill tonight.

I completely agree. That still doesn't make it a good idea, or even remotely worth the cost.

[Furpants_Tom]

@tom - you insistence that I need to come up with someone better than Benmage for you to vote is ridiculous. Even if you don't agree with the MoI case, surely there are people in this game you think are likely to be cult. Are there? I find it hard to believe that 77 pages in you don't have a single person you think is highly likely to be cult. In fact, I'd like to hear your thoughts on who these people could be in your mind. Then I'd like to hear your thoughts as to why lynching hypo-murderer today > lynching your top cult suspect.

I think he's probably an investigator (although it's a very, very long way from confirmed, and he's nowhere near the top of my town list); but since he won't tell us who he stalked and won't promise not to make the kill, he's got to die.

Everyone seems to be saying "Well, if he doesn't play nice, we'll lynch him tomorrow". However,

a) He's telling us, right now, that he won't play nice. He's going to kill someone, and he's certainly not going to tell us who he's targeted unless he's actually facing the noose.
b) Our lynch tomorrow is vastly more valuable than our lynch today; because we'll know a lot more.
c) There's a pretty good chance we'll leave him alive tomorrow, even if he kills - in fact, he's banking on the kill improving his survivability. So we lose a real townie, and Ben gets rewarded for his bad behaviour. Welcome to Moral Hazard, population: us.
d) People assigning him to graverobs tonight are kidding themselves and building plans that will fail, which will make our night less effective.

So no, I won't be pointing out any cult suspects, until Ben has agreed to play by the town's rules, or is swinging from a branch.

[Furpants_Tom]

Can I borrow your crystal ball? Having played in SAII, I will affirmatively state that grave robbing shuts down scum. I've stated above while they won't veer away from their assigned graves. Your refutation of that argument is essentially, "Oh yes they will!"

You can borrow my crystal ball, if I can borrow your mind control powers.

In the meantime those organizing tonight I will only perform 1 rob grave tonight and 1 tomorrow for killing and laundering.

Oh wait, don't bother, they don't work. You can't make him do what you want, and the town won't follow through with a lynch tomorrow - and he knows it. We either lynch Ben now, or we become intensely comfortable with the fact that we've licensed a random NK. And then we wait for every other investigator who's under threat and decides his credibility needs a boost to kill at random.

[Furpants_Tom]

You've officially replaced Fate as the Only Sane Man. Thank God.

I'm not sure that's something I'll be boasting about...

[Furpants_Tom]

Tom, I don't recall seeing 'precedence' as part of your argument before, but I'll admit I have been skimming.

No, you're right. It's an unnecessary rhetorical flourish, and I usually hate "thin end of the wedge" arguments. My bad.

As for the rest of your post, you're still thinking night strategy, as is everyone else. Which is valid, but it's currently day-time. Think about what town need to do during the day, and it should be obvious why the BenMage bandwagon is worth riding.

[Furpants_Tom]

I agree with you. I think during the day, the town need to scum hunt, not try to mitigate a town member's night action.

You clearly don't agree with me. Quit trying so hard to look town. Consider what information we need to gather

before

we can reliably make plans for night, what information we need

before

we scum-hunt, and most importantly, what daytime strategies we need to use to actually get that information.

I don't hate your plan of asking for a list; but you need to follow that thought with due consideration of what it will take to convince BenMage to provide it. Asking nicely simply does not work on everyone.

[Furpants_Tom]

b) What? This decreases the amount of rez kits cult will have to use, as currently EVERBODY is a potential target.

Everybody remains a potential target; because there's at least one other murderer on the loose, and the cult will be well aware that any noises they heard last night may well be other townies planning a kill based on their D1 reads - a popular, but generally bad idea. They're going to be trying to cover all the noise anyway, this way we at least get some useful confirmation of BenMage's reliability, and an indication of his scumreads, in case someone else murders him tonight.

[Furpants_Tom]

If you believe Benmage to be town (regardless of Murderer in Training ambitions or lack thereof) it is in the best interest of the town to allow his kill to go through. A Murderer in Training (especially an outted one) would have the same objective now as a town vig.

xvart.

Call me a Stalinist control freak if you will, but don't you want some kind of a say in BenMage's vig? Is everyone really happy to let Captain Whacky vote someone off the island given that he's only just putting together a scum list right now? Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

[Furpants_Tom]

I think you're wrong. I think a few votes short of a lynch would cause him to reconsider.

[Furpants_Tom]

Maybe so, I haven't played a game with him. But I do know something about ambit claims, and I know they work welll when applied early and forcefully. Especially when the other party is predisposed to be unreasonble, escalating measures and logic allow them to engage multiple defence mechanisms and erode your support. I'm guessing we've missed this opportunity in BenMage's case.

Perhaps more importantly, people's reluctance to use their votes as strategic pressure is something I'm finding a bit bewildering.

[Furpants_Tom]

Fur you don't have nearly enough support to get me lynched. Way too many have voices opposition. Even prior to that I basically pleaded with vpb to start a shitty campaign on me, which I would've helped. He didn't, which is townpoints for him. Look at it this way you have a snowballs chance in hell of ever lynching me period. Forget the fact that you just showed your hand saying only a few votes. Now do some real scum hunting you're bleeding cult.

And sea....ehhh, right for the most part

Everything you're saying is true, except for the fact that we actually missed our chance to put real pressure on you about 12 hours ago when Wraith drifted away. Enjoy your kill, rogue agent, I'm gonna be real sad when Wraith turns out to be town.

[Furpants_Tom]

Hey again, everyone got some catching up to do.

This after the d1 pigeonhole votes until RC and the 180 from "Ben killing is awesome" to "Ben is a plague" is a whoooooonellly of a switch.

I'm not sure I'm seeing the inconsistency here. In D1, I attempted to use my vote to pressure Bowser into answering questions; which didn't work. In D2 I attempted to use my vote to pressure BenMage into answering questions, which didn't work. I'm consistent, I'm just not very successful.

And in D1, there was no chance Ben would kill, because he'd announced his target and someone would block it. So lynching or attempting to lynch Ben was a bad plan. Today, there is a good chance Ben will kill, because we don't know who he's aiming for. And his judgement is pretty awful, so I'm not hopeful it'll be cult.

That said, Plan A was to pile on a lot of pressure early in the day, and get him to spill the target so we could go back to ignoring him. But no-one backed the play, so I guess that's not happening.

Am I the only one who finds Xvart and El Goos targeting each other slightly hinky. Especially with El G choosing to look for something that couldn't be there.

Nope, that's definitely odd. And for xvart, a rather unlucky coincidence, considering his N0 action was to target someone also targeted by Baby Spice.

Xvart's explanation for his Goo action is interesting, but by the end of D1, I'm pretty sure that Furcolow's story was well accepted. Moreover, given that there had already been a mod clarification that pretty much spelt out what would happen in Furcolow's case, I don't know what additional proof you were looking for. So it's difficult to see exactly how your action benefited the town.

Warding people on N0 and N1 is fine; but the unique circumstances of your actions are starting to cause me puzzlement and dismay.

Xvart: Do you think that anyone else was likely to have been targeting El Goosuki last night?

done iso on MoI, but he is town.

why? I want a damn explanation of these town reads on him because I see nothing to indicate that.

his attack of furcolow's confirmness is not something cult will do, and so hard. i think they would have given up that argument long before MoI did. they won't want that much attraction that early on an unlikely mislynch.

WHY do you not think [Benmage]'s cult? What has he done to make you think that?

that would be the greatest gambit if he is really cult and not being caught soon. there are too many risk for a cult to claim stalking someone, without any reason.

Your basic argument is that you don't believe that cultists take risks, right? And so far you've absolved BenMage, MoI, and LostButterfly of cultic tendencies because they've all played too dangerously, correct?

So I'm curious - Manho, where would scum be trying to direct attention today?

Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

me.

Manho, who do you think Benmage is targeting?

why Rez Wicked???

Cuz he's cul.

I think this is a pretty important question, and it could use a real answer. Yes, you claimed first; but if you're cult, you would know that Wickedjstr had been rezzed, and could falsely claim it before the real doctor. It's also a great way of explaining your blood, if you've been taking part in the ritual.

SSBF seemed legit to me; but your answers so far aren't similarly compelling.

Nopoint, why rez Wicked? Why not answer Plum?

Vote: kunkstar7

He is such obvious scum. Just read him in isolation. The points against him:

1. He has completely flown under the radar.
2. He tunneled on Furcolow for a large portion of the game and didn't change his vote until page 51.
3. Prior to switching his vote to ReaperCharlie, kunkstar gave no scumreads apart from Furcolow. The rest of his posting had consisted of town reads and theory posting. He has avoided taking stances.
4. All of his votes have been opportunistic. The vote for Furcolow was when the spotlight was on him. The vote for ReaperCharlie was after 8 players had already voted him. His reason for voting RC was very weak. It looked like he was trying to jump on the bandwagon using his own reasons. Then, there was the vote for El Goosuki today which was the third vote on the bandwagon. Considering the sizes of the other bandwagons, this vote does look opportunistic as well.
5. He doesn't give too many reads, but even some of the ones he has given have been bad:

He's been pretty quiet, true, and he's avoided making too many waves - he's got a real submarine vibe to him. I agree that he was looking at Furcolow for way longer than necessary. I think xvart is guilty of that, too. I don't have a problem with theory-heavy players, nor cautious players, for that matter; so that part doesn't worry me; except that players who are cautious and theory-heavy usually try and bracket their weak gut-reads with some kind of fact-based security blanket, which he doesn't. Overall, yes, kunkstar7 is someone I think is potential cult.

4) Again today I see almost no direction from Magna in his scum hunting. I see a lot of defending himself and being generally kind of pissy about being called out as scum, but I for the life of me cannot tell you who Magna is suspicious of or wants lynched. I still find it weird that he isn't pushing the AV case Spyrex is still on about. I don't see anything that has changed from that really. Magna, do you find AV scummy or not? If no, what changed? If yes, why are you not voting him?

This is probably the reason why I'm swinging towards MoI as scum. In D1, I felt he was a genuinely odious individual to share a forum with; but I could see what he was trying to do - savaging a few people he thought were potentially dodgy, trying to shake them down for info.

Today, not so much. He's just flailing and flinging the occasional OMGUS.

MoI - what do you think of AV today?

Furpants:

Top cult suspects ASAP please.

nopointinactingup - double rez participant
Feysal - double rez participant
kunkstar7 - submariner par excellence
xvart - too many night action coincidences

SpyreX, what do you think of xvart?

Re: Fate - I don't see how flipping today instead of tomorrow helps us. And giving more unverified "townies" a chance to sneak corpse dust is a bad idea, unless there's something really good in it for us. Today we have wicked and Furc as effectively confirmed, and one of them needs to launder; so we can afford 3 corpses - RC, LostButterfly and the lynch.

Unvote
Vote: Kunkstar7

[Furpants_Tom]

Nopoint, why rez Wicked? Why not answer Plum?

What are you trying to elicit from my response? And why not ask Feysal? Is it because ... I'm voting you?

Two people just happening to rez the cult kill is a huge coinkydink. I'm trying to figure out who had a genuinely townie reason to protect him, because I think there's a good chance you're not both telling the truth. And I'm not asking Feysal because... he already answered. For reference:

As it is I find it somewhat suspect that we have two claimed successful Wicked Rezzers. Question being - to both of them -

why Rez Wicked???

I had a res kit and 8 potential targets to use it on. My feelings about them were mostly neutral. hitogoroshi I considered town, despite the Fate fiasco, but he also felt too obvious. I considered xvart, but settled on Wickedestjr, since he'd been catching up and I thought he might be overlooked otherwise. Apparently not.

[Furpants_Tom]

Plenty of things "could" happen. Virtually none of them do. Given that I'm not sold on either you or Feysal, I think it's worth investigating.

[Furpants_Tom]

Sorry; I dropped the question in that last post.

Who were the other "middle townies" that you considered?

[Furpants_Tom]

I think it was VP and Wicked.
You didn't have a question on your last post. You were saying both of us are cult?

Sorry, the question I was referring to was

Sorry; I dropped the question in that last post.

Who were the other "middle townies" that you considered?

I meant to post it in a single post.

But no, I'm not saying you're both scum. I think *one* of you saved wicked. But I don't know who, yet.

[Furpants_Tom]

it is not that cult won't take risks, but that the risk is overwhelming the advantage.

OK, but they must be doing something today. If you were scum, what would that be?

Does anyone genuinely believe this kill is more likely to hit scum than town?

me.

Manho, who do you think Benmage is targeting?

i've no idea, as i haven't read day 1 yet.[/quote]

So how are you sure he'll hit scum?

Furpants:

Suspecting the two rezzers is one thing, but do you think they are both likely cult? I don't have an issue with the rest of your suspects, just the lingering annoyance that I had to call you out for you to start scum hunting again.

No, I think ONE of them is cult, and one is town. At the moment, I think there's a 55% chance it's npau, and a 45% chance it's Feysal. However, even 45% is a pretty high likelihood, so they both made my scum list.

And as much as I wish it were true, it wasn't your prompting that pulled me back into the game. Post #2000 by Seacore convinced me that my bluff was dead in the water, but stupidly, I attempted to apply CPR anyway, in posts #2001 and #2005. BenMage ninja'd me in #2003, and his gloating made me rage so hard I posted my sad little hissy-fit in #2009. After a re-read, it became obvious that I was starting to tunnel, so I took the weekend and Monday off, and returned yesterday. So, points to you for asking questions, but it wasn't really the driving cause.

Wicked

; I'd prefer you to launder tonight as one of your actions. Remaining bloody means there's no way to check you for murderous tendencies on future nights, especially since you'll be building a stock of insanities anyway

except that players who are cautious and theory-heavy usually try and bracket their weak gut-reads with some kind of fact-based security blanket, which he doesn't.

Not sure what you mean by fact-based security blanket, so can't really respond to this point..

Sorry, what I'm getting at is that when cautious players post gut-reads, they normally scrape around for any kind of fact-based justification for them, even if they know it's WIFOM, or manifestly unreasonable, and even if it comes off looking slightly scummy. Or they spend most of a paragraph telling people how unreliable their list is. In my experience, anyhow.

But he can help the Town because he is the closest thing we have to a confirmed investigator.

Disagree. i believe that honour goes to Wickedest.

NO NO NO

go read stars aligned II and see how resuscitation can

RUIN

town
this is

WIFOM

True, but he's still more confirmed than you.

[Furpants_Tom]

im not certain im going to be robbing
i dont feel like i need confirmation at all

Furc, it's not to confirm you but to assist town =_="

Didn't mean to double post, I didn't realise I had also tabbed this quote to respond to.

i will rob one grave
i am ressing someone
i heard noise last night, so it would be nice if i didnt die myself

Furc, if you're using resuscitate:

"Any Resuscitate action targeting you tonight will fail, and the player who targeted you will not be notified of the failure."

So if you choose to use your kit, we can't protect you. Maybe robbing two graves is a better idea?

[Furpants_Tom]

Plenty of things "could" happen. Virtually none of them do. Given that I'm not sold on either you or Feysal, I think it's worth investigating.

Actually, with 8 possible targets and several people resuscitating, there is a high probability of overlap in targets. You should at least allow for the possibility that neither of us is lying. That said, I do understand your concern, so investigate away. If either of us had gotten bloody by ritual or murder, and false claimed to cover it up, we should also have insanities from those actions. I have none, and nopoint claimed to have none, so a commune should reveal if either of us had lied.

What your analysis doesn’t take into account is all the unsuccessful rezes that may or may not have gone on last night. We have no clue if others might have doubled up on any of the others in the ‘group of 8’ targets. It is entirely possible that multiple doubles-up happened and we only know about 1 due to the failed Cult kill. And it is possible that, given the Ritual is a free action, both rezes prevented a Greater Ritual from succeeding on Wicked.

Well, the overlap isn't just between two investigators - as you say, that's statistically likely (assuming randomness). However, the likelihood of three actions targeting the same player (cult, npau, Feysal) is significantly smaller, and no-one's pointed to any standout qualities of Wicked that might attract these actions, over, say, VP Baltar or xvart. However, there's a limited field, and potentially a fair few kits, so I haven't entirely disregarded the possibility of a coincidence; I'm just skeptical at this point. I think it's at least as good an indicator as any of the behavioural reads people are throwing around.

Feysal right about insanities, but there's one flaw to the commune plan - pass fetish resolves before commune; and you've both heard noise, so we should assume the cult has fetishes if it wishes to mess up our investigation. Even so, those with books should consider communing on both of you anyway, because persuading the cult to pass you both a fetish means you're safe from cult for a night. (Since it causes "Craft fetish" to fail if performed on the same night). And on the offchance the cult chooses not to do so, you'll be almost-confirmed town.

Why do you think npau is the more likely cult?

Because Feysal had a properly thought out reason as to why he protected Wicked when initially asked. Npau had just entered the game, and had presumably just read through the whole thread - I'd assume he would be more likely to have a non-trivial, non-emotional reason for taking his night action; but it took 3 questions to get him to explain his reasoning. I realise that's weaksauce, which is why it's not yet enough to attract my vote; but it does put him ahead of Feysal on my scumometer.

[Furpants_Tom]

@Furpants and others who have commune book: I did not hear noise so you can confirm me ^^

Rewq did, though, so it's possible there's a fetish out there with your (plural) names on it.

[Furpants_Tom]

Huh? If they created a fetish of me, I'd have to hear noise right?

Sorry, am idioth, I thought you'd replaced rewq for a minute, but you actually replaced ssbf, so you're correct.

[Furpants_Tom]

Pride cometh before a FAIL.

[Furpants_Tom]

True valor lies between cowardice and rashness.

[Furpants_Tom]

Because it's such bizzare play that it might just be genuine?

Nah, everything I said yesterday about Bowser is true of El G, only without a halfway decent excuse. He's scummy, the only real reason he didn't make my list before is that I didn't trust the wagon. Not for any particlar reason, just habit.

[Furpants_Tom]

And so here is my purpose: highlighting your hypocrisy between what you want people to think about you, and what you actually do. You logically ought to have been on the Ben wagon at some point today. Instead you have a vote on VV? Yeah.

Oh come on, this is definitely tunnelling. He's being entirely consistent here. He says that Ben should not kill under any circumstances. But he also says that the cost of the only action we can take to stop him (using our lynch to kill a near-certain townie) is too high. While I think we should have at least made a credible threat, I don't see any hypocrisy in his position whatsoever, and I think you're actually discrediting the MoI case by attempting such an obvious distortion.

[Furpants_Tom]

kunkstar is unlikely to go murderer on account of his not going murderer last time. That's my opinion.

-DGB

This is like pulling teeth.

El Goosuki: Do you think that kunkstar is or might be cult. If so, why? If not, why not?

[Furpants_Tom]

And then I left out an important question mark. Ahem...

El Goosuki: Do you think that kunkstar is or might be cult? If so, why? If not, why not?

[Furpants_Tom]

I will avenge RC's death tonight
leave MoI for me
someone res me tonight
I am stalking MoI, I will use my res kit I have gained after I have confirmed my kill.

I like your moxie, Furc; but there's a couple of concerns. One is quite minor, in that a successful murder will make you bloody, and in the resus kit description it notes - "Destroyed when: You are Bloody."

Secondly, if MoI is actually cult, they'll definitely ward him tonight; because it's cheaper in terms of actions, blood and insanity than resuscitating him tomorrow. If MoI's not cult, my guess is they'll ward him tonight to convince us he's worth lynching tomorrow. While there's probably still a good case for someone to stalk him, to draw a valuable cult action; I still think your (almost) confirmed town status makes your actions a little bit too useful to put to this purpose. Are you totally, really, truly sure you won't rob two graves tonight?

[Furpants_Tom]

Official Graverob Roster V.1

RC = Furc, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = VP, Baby Spice
LB = Wicked, Baby Spice
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

One question: Why exactly are we blocking Baby Spice when they have exactly one vote on them? Wouldn't it make more sense to replace BS with the 3rd wagonee, given that we have 3 relatively large wagons at this point?

RC = Furc, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = VP, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Wicked, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

And I understand putting VP on the list because it's his plan, but is hito there because people seem to trust him, or for another reason that I've missed?

I still don't see why we need to flip Fate now (for reasons stated earlier), but I strongly suspect it's going to happen, so there's no real point preparing a counter-plan for 3 corpse night.

[Furpants_Tom]

However, Tom, what possible reason could there be to dispatch Fate later, given we're going to have less town but the bodies are going to continue to pile up?

I don't really see a need to flip him at all, frankly. If he was scum, I can't see any situation in which he would have said anything about RC's out-of-thread disclosures, since RC was very, very likely to be lynched anyhow. Percy noted that the soulrip was for "attempting to gain tactical advantage", and I can't see how his actions - moving off a town bandwagon and then revealing his off-thread information to the town - could be perceived as advantageous for scum. RC I thought was a worthwhile flip, because it's entirely possible that he was lying to Fate out-of-thread in the first place.

[Furpants_Tom]

Well, it's not just 2 insanity points. It diminishes the non-scum:scum ratio by one as well. Unless I've misread the soulrip rules, Fate counts as a neutral survivor until he's actually dead - regardless of his previous alignment, and the scum don't win until they constitute at least half the living players.

[Furpants_Tom]

I thought I'd brought that up before, but a quick ISO of myself reveals that I didn't, I just kept saying "for reasons already stated" or similar. D'oh. Sorry everyone.

[Furpants_Tom]

And I understand putting VP on the list because it's his plan, but is hito there because people seem to trust him, or for another reason that I've missed?

You're correct. The point of the list is to put one protown person with each scummy person that way you are less likely to have cult corpse dust or skipping out on robbing graves.

In that case, as much as it grates on me to say it, wouldn't hito be better replaced with BenMage? Especially since he's already said he's willing to rob a single grave as directed.

[Furpants_Tom]

Okay, so,

Final Grave Rob Roster V2

RC = VP, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = Benmage, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Wicked, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

I've given in to Benmage's request to lynch Fate, I personally don't see the harm in letting him choose, particularly since he doesn't know who his robbing partner will be at this point.

If we decide not to dispatch fate, or can't swing the dispatch votes in time, then lets just have

RC = VP, 2nd Wagonee
LB = Wicked, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

It doesn't block out the 3rd wagonee, but it still up's their insanity count in an auditable way.

I would argue that Hito be swapped for BenMage in the 3 corpse scenario; but it's not exactly a deal-breaker for me. Apart from that:

I'm Furpants_Tom, and I endorse this message.

Feysal does actually make a good point about the probabilities of a double ward on the first night. I'm not convinced xvart's explanation is all that; but it does push both him and Baby Spice further up my scum-list.

[Furpants_Tom]

We can't. Forming our plans around the assumption that it's possible is only going to make those plans fail.

[Furpants_Tom]

Well, the four corpse set-up is superior for locking up wagonee 3's actions; and given that his dessicated wandering meat puppet won't help us in endgame...

IT'S HAMMER-TIME!

Dispatch: Fate

[Furpants_Tom]

I realise he's intensely frustrating, but he hasn't actually lied about his actions at any point. If Furc is now offering to graverob, then it's in the town's interests to let him do so. We're pretty sure he's not cult, but we also want his actions tied up so he can't go murdering; having him replace hito and VP means he's locked down and we don't risk giving dust to cult on the off-chance we're wrong about hito and VP. Would that be Ok, Furc. If you took the place of hito and VP on the current plan?

[Furpants_Tom]

Grave Rob Roster
RC = Wicked, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = Benmage, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Furcolow, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Furcolow, 2nd Wagonee

Furcolow, would you agree to this roster?

Please for the love of god say

[Furpants_Tom]

The missing word is yes.

[Furpants_Tom]

wicked is bloody
he does not need to be on RC
are you fucking dumb?

Whether or not I possess the power of speech has exactly as much impact on the plan as whether or not Wicked is bloody. Two people robbing each grave means that no-one gets any equipment. In fact, that's the whole point.

[Furpants_Tom]

@Mod: if someone who is bloody picks up a res kit and it is instantly destroyed, would they be informed of this?

[Furpants_Tom]

Not where you live.

[Furpants_Tom]

You will never be ritualled, Cult aren't generally in the business of doing town favours.

[Furpants_Tom]

So where was I –

Oh yeah this is my sign-off post. I’m not really going to bother to fight the upcoming deadline. My apologies to Percy … you made a great game and I didn’t give it my all over the past 2 weeks. Too many other games and too much work combined for the distaste some have generated in me during this game.

Congrats, well done joining the ranks of the VIs; because we really really needed more of them. You don't have to be the lynch today, but every time you pop up, you manage to make things worse, somehow. Have you considered that maybe "being an ass" isn't so much "sticking to your guns" as it is "being an ass"?

@mod: You're absolutely sure you didn't put any jesters in this game?

Absolutely sure! Saving them for Stars Aligned IV... ~Mod

Also: No, Plum is not obvTown; but she's not that suspicious, either. What I found initially interesting about her was the number of people prepared to back her as town for no good reason - which, to my mind, probably means that she IS town, but that the scum had picked her out in their QT as a potential leader. I don't buy your argument on her: 1, 3 and 4 are dumb, and although your point 2 is accurate, it doesn't automatically mean scum.

BabySpice -

I

added BenMage in. Because I don't trust him, but I don't think he's cult. And because there's not a "good" side and a "bad" side, there's a cult side and a non-cult side. Murderer wannabes and VIs like BenMage and Furcolow are EXACTLY the kind of people we want robbing corpses for town, because their night actions are quite likely to be disastrous. Both of them have refused to take town orders in the past (and right now), but neither has actually lied to us about their actions, so far as we can tell. So if they're offering to take part in this plan, I think they're as likely to follow it through as some other miscreant who could very well be a cultist.

[Furpants_Tom]

Tom I really have to ask where, because Plum or VPB suggested Ben grave rob. Two graves, to shut him down.
As far as I can tell, it was Seacore who put him on the town side of the list, which is the trustworthy reliable side presumably. At least with how Seacore was presenting it. and VPB and Wickedest.
I don't think Ben is trustworthy.

You Furpants on the other hand were part of the "He robs two graves or hangs" school of thought. As an aside, if it's decided that Ben should graverob, or any other murderer or cult suspect, then I agree, they should rob two graves or hang.

And I understand putting VP on the list because it's his plan, but is hito there because people seem to trust him, or for another reason that I've missed?

You're correct. The point of the list is to put one protown person with each scummy person that way you are less likely to have cult corpse dust or skipping out on robbing graves.

In that case, as much as it grates on me to say it, wouldn't hito be better replaced with BenMage? Especially since he's already said he's willing to rob a single grave as directed.

Okay, so,

Final Grave Rob Roster V2

RC = VP, 2nd Wagonee
Fate = Benmage, 3rd Wagonee
LB = Wicked, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

I've given in to Benmage's request to lynch Fate, I personally don't see the harm in letting him choose, particularly since he doesn't know who his robbing partner will be at this point.

If we decide not to dispatch fate, or can't swing the dispatch votes in time, then lets just have

RC = VP, 2nd Wagonee
LB = Wicked, 3rd Wagonee
Lynchee = Hito, 2nd Wagonee

It doesn't block out the 3rd wagonee, but it still up's their insanity count in an auditable way.

I would argue that Hito be swapped for BenMage in the 3 corpse scenario; but it's not exactly a deal-breaker for me. Apart from that:

I'm Furpants_Tom, and I endorse this message.

Feysal does actually make a good point about the probabilities of a double ward on the first night. I'm not convinced xvart's explanation is all that; but it does push both him and Baby Spice further up my scum-list.

[Furpants_Tom]

One thing FT already told Furco that I want to repeat is that

Murdering or otherwise becoming bloody destroys rez kits.

I don't think Furco ever acknowledged when FT said as much.

I think he might be prejudiced against fucking dumb people. When will my people finally achieve equality?

[Furpants_Tom]

Furpants, do you still want me to explain my "terrible" question for MoI? I don't think he'll answer so it probably won't matter if I explain what I was doing now anyway :\

Yeah, I'd be very interested to know what was going on there.

[Furpants_Tom]

@Mod: if someone who is bloody picks up a res kit and it is instantly destroyed, would they be informed of this?

[Furpants_Tom]

Let me restate: MoI has said Ben is a grey area. Thus he has NOT got the same excuse that you offered as to why he didn't want to lynch Ben. I had wanted to see his response (this explains why I waited so long to vote him) because if he had said the same as you, his fate was sealed. He never answered, which makes me angry. But there we go.

Hrm. I got a different impression of what he was saying about Ben; but I'll have to go back and rereading him when I have a spare hour or two. Sorry if I spoilt your play.

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm not sure where you got that number. Even at completely random, with a modest estimate of five people resuscitating last night and knowing Wickedestjr was resuscitated, the odds of two people doing it are around 41% (1-((7/8)^4)). Factoring in the PoE, the odds should be close to even. Considering this, I'm not eager to suspect you, either.

OK, but if there's a 41% chance of it happening by accident, that means there's a 59% chance it didn't happen by accident. Right? And therefore a 29.5% chance of each one of you being scum. If there's a 30% chance of someone being scum, I'd argue that's probably a good person to lynch. However, assuming one of you is a townie, you know that the other person has a 59% likelihood of being scum. So what's with the mutual admiration?

Re: Night Guides

I think VP's resus list is superior, because it excludes people who have been warded. If cult kills someone who was supposedly warded on the night they heard noise, we've caught a liar, which is good news for us. Whereas if they kill someone with unclaimed noise, we learn nothing additional. So if you're holding a medkit and feel the urge, please to be resuscitating someone on VP's list rather than Feysal's.

However, I agree with Feysal's other advice. If you have equipment, use it instead of going for more. Maybe you feel you made the wrong choice last night, but the more offensive or defensive town actions we have in the mix at this stage, the more likely we are to trip up the cult. If you can commune, please do.

Warding is also something of a crapshoot at this stage - you may be better off picking up some occult books if you don't already have equipment; or a medkit, since we're two down.

I do disagree about laundering. Wicked remaining bloody is bad - he could be LB's killer, and giving him a ticket to ride tonight and tomorrow could mean another difficult-to-detect murder. NPAU and Feysal probably aren't; but there's a good chance that one of them is cult; and if so will likely take part in the ritual again tonight, with their defensible blood-stains. A clean town is a safe town.

[Furpants_Tom]

I don't understand the advantage of B, so I'll

vote A

, which works in an obvious manner. It remains a pity that Furcolow can't be drafted in, but I'm no longer really sure if we're playing the same game as him.

I think VP's resus list is superior, because it excludes people who have been warded.

I think you're mistaken. The only difference between our lists is that mine includes VasudeVa, VP Baltar himself, Wickedestjr and xvart, none of whom have been warded. VP Baltar and xvart heard noise yesterday, VasudeVa today. The cult also does not lose their fetish when the ritual fails, so there must still be a fetish of Wickedestjr. I remember seeing that question asked before.

Um, yes, good point. I assumed that's why they weren't on the list; but actually doing my homework reveals that's not the case. Why didn't they (and you) make your list, VP?

[Furpants_Tom]

Not really...the fact that they're already bloody in fact makes it BETTER for them to Rob Grave. Laundering per-se doesn't do anything for us, and whoever Robs Graves is going to be bloody either way.

Robbing a grave doesn't make you bloody, just insane.

And the reason that it's a good idea to commune NPAU and Feysal tonight without them graverobbing is that the main claim against them is that one of them may have participated in the Ritual that targeted Wicked. That'd give them blood (also explained by rezzing), and one insanity (not explained by rezzing). If we check them both for insanities tonight and they're clean, we can basically confirm them as town (or as scum playing a dastardly triple-game of villainy, if you're into tinfoil hats).

[Furpants_Tom]

I left out Wraith, since he said he was going to resuscitate, which means he cannot be resuscitated. The cult cannot kill him anyway.

???

He was passed a fetish last night, meaning the cult probably doesn't have another one, meaning they can't kill him tonight.

[Furpants_Tom]

MoI's still at L-3.
Kunkstar and BabySpice are (currently) the 2nd and 3rd wagonees.

Iecerint, kunkstar, Wraith, Andrius and Vasudeva are basically twiddling their thumbs and should urgently consider joining one of the top 3 wagons; or making such a fantastic case for their vote that they derail one or more of the existing ones.

[Furpants_Tom]

I'm waiting for a VC so I don't mess up, but I'm ready to pile on whenever.

Unofficial vote count!

MagnaofIllusion - 10 (Trilobite, VP Baltar, Benmage, hitogoroshi, Plum, El Goosuki, Baby Spice, AurorusVox, MagnaofIllusion, SpyreX)
kunkstar7 - 5 (totallynotmafia, Wickedestjr, Furpants_Tom, nopointinactingup, Nicodemus)
Baby Spice - 5 (Triglav, Feysal, Seacore, Furcolow, xvart)
El Goosuki - 2 (kunkstar7, Wraith)
xvart - 1 (Andrius)
hitogoroshi - 1 (Iecerint)
Not voting - 1 (VasudeVa)

[Furpants_Tom]

Since Kunkstar and BabySpice are currently tied; I'm going to just fiat this:

Kunkstar7

, you are Wagonee #2; and should graverob accordingly!

BabySpice

, you are Wagonee #3; and should graverob accordingly!

[Furpants_Tom]

The final graverobbing targets are these. It's exactly what VP said; I'd rather not replace ElG with Baby Spice, despite her being the higher wagon on numbers.

ElG. if you don't rob these graves, we're lynching you. Savvy?

Grave Robbers

RC = VP, Kunk
Fate = Benmage, El G
LB = Wicked, El G
MoI = Hito, Kunk

Whoa, we're just changing the plans AFTER the lynch? Negative, boss - BabySpice is the robber, not El G. If there was a problem with that plan, the correct time to raise it was more than a day ago.

AGREED GRAVEROB ROSTER:

Grave Robbers

RC = VP, Kunk
Fate = Benmage, BabySpice
LB = Wicked, BabySpice
MoI = Hito, Kunk

[Furpants_Tom]

GRAVEROBBERS SHOULD FOLLOW HITO'S DIRECTIONS, NOT TOM'S OR ANY OTHER PREVIOUS GRAVE ROB DIRECTIONS!!!

This post-lynch plan railroading is pretty suspicious, right here. What's the deal?

[Furpants_Tom]

Hell no I won't. This is dodgy as hell.

[Furpants_Tom]

I agreed to Wagonee #2 and #3, because that's what was discussed. I assumed they were in your Plan A post as placeholders, because we had already decided on the #2/#3 aspect of the plan. I don't think I'm alone in having reached that conclusion; and I think you're well aware that was the deal as perceived by many.

[Furpants_Tom]

I would be happy with either, I am very unhappy with you and/or hito picking one without the town's input.

[Furpants_Tom]

First off, I blame Furc for this debacle.

Secondly, the worst case scenario is that both El G and BabySpice attempt to rob.

Thirdly, I think this is pretty damn suspicious; but continuing to argue about it is more likely to do harm than good.

So I withdraw, please go along with Seacore/Hito's surprise town-plan Baby and El G.

[Furpants_Tom]

Good work, town! I did note down some things I wanted to say, months ago when I died; but I can't find them now. So I'll stick to congrats!