Reckamonic's Ocarina of Time Mafia..OVER! Was Hyrule saved?

[Kdub]

/confirm

[Kdub]

I actually am a miller CPR doc, by the way.

I have a tough time buying anything you claim. If you aren't just messing around, care to provide flavor for why you are a miller/CPR doc?

so many choices for who to use my ability on :/

What is the point of softclaiming here? If you are town, you just announced to scum that you have an ability when you weren't even close to being lynched.

I'm undecided on my read of chesskid since he strikes me as a potential VI (e.g. zwet). I'll VOTE: Substrike for starting jester speculation early on just because of chess not contributing. If I am town, and I see someone not contributing, jester is one of the last things I would suspect, especially less than a day into the game.

[Kdub]

I'm a

suicidial

double-shot permanent vanillizer.

Hey I got an idea. Lets not lynch me, and

if I'm alive tomorrow

maybe we can reconsider then durrrp.

Huh? If you are suicidal, and you want to prove your ability to us at night, how are you possibly going to be alive tomorrow to get people to reconsider? Possible slip-up?

Also, can you give flavor info as to why King Zora has that particular ability?

Mod: Vote count please

[Kdub]

Ugh, 16 pages to catch up on. My initial reaction is that the King Zora claim and associated flavor seems unlikely given the claimed ability. Been a while since I played OoT, but I don't recall King Zora ever being associated with any sort of sacrifice. I'll post more when I've read everything that's happened since page 12.

[Kdub]

So I had a paragraph typed out earlier about how I agreed with chesskid being forced to use his ability tonight on targets of our choosing, but then Nikanor claimed town info on him. I am willing to believe Nikanor's info for now and keep chesskid alive, but obviously as the game goes on, we will have to be reevaluating them.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Chrono
Not really liking his last post. He jumps off the collapsing wagon onto the one that is just getting some steam with no explanation.

Got some bad vibes from LL and Gandalf as I was reading. Keeping an eye on them.

[Kdub]

ok so why do we believe Nik?
Why cant he and chess be scum together?

Because they are both sunk if one of them flips scum later. From a risk/reward perspective, it makes no sense.

Maybe we should lynch Chess, to see...? If he flips scum, we have 2?

Don't like this post. Earlier, you were saying chess was cleared and people shouldn't be voting him. If chess and Nikanor are lying scum, we will likely find out at some point, especially if there are vigs or multiple factions.

I am 100% certain it was a day-vig.

Maybe you are 100% certain it was a day

kill attempt

, but I suspect it was likely a scum ability. A town dayvig had no motive to shoot at you at that point without consulting the rest of the town, especially when chess was being a huge distraction and looking like a likely lynch candidate.

[Kdub]

As if I'd deny it, my miller flavor is the same as Kairyuu's

If you don't mind, can you still post it?

I'll go a step further and ask zwet to post his CPR doc flavor as well. He's already claimed the ability, so the flavor isn't going to reveal anything important. I'd like to see how his supposed abilities check out with his role flavor.

Scum:
GIS
Chrono
Lady L
Substrike
Bunnylover

Replace bunnylover with zwet and that's pretty much identical to my suspect list. Why is zwet obv-town? He's pretty damn suspicious to me, and I don't see what he's posted that would give you a town read.

In the meantime, I suggest more votes on Chrono. Post 753 looks terrible.

[Kdub]

Look at chesskid. What exactly do you intend to gain.

Chesskid is off the hook (at least for now) because of external info (Nikanor). I do not buy zwet's claim and want to see how it checks out with flavor, and as I said, I don't think revealing that is going to give any significant info away since he's already claimed the ability.

This has really been a 0 information day so far. ITT so far: Chesskid sucks, and his role is anti-town, that is all. (fyi: I'm already voting him)

Wait, What? Page 31 and we've stopped with the CK3 lynch?

...

OIC. nvm, continue.

I'll admit, I might have been a little tunnel-visioned on the perceived anti-town role of vanilliser, especially in the hands of someone who's posts consisted of generally terms of "screw you guys."

But I can get behind a BE wagon.
UNVOTE: CK3,VOTE: Blooderection

Chicken on SS's head. I lol'd.

The "wait, what?" part looks extremely lazy. You said that the day has produced no information, then it's like you are just sitting around waiting for chesskid to be lynched without trying to produce or gain information. With regards to your BE vote, following a player you have a town read on is not in itself a valid reason to join a wagon. You can agree with their reasoning, but that's not at all apparent here, and your last post seems to confirm that you jumped on board because you thought Cupcake was town rather than that her reasoning on BE was good. Also, it provides a ready-made excuse if your vote is later scrutinized: "I was just following X, look at them instead!"

[Kdub]

I'm pretty much with jenniwren here. I caught up with the whole chesskid-Ythan thing, but if people are going to spam 15 pages a day on a single argument, it makes it very difficult to follow anything actually going on.

SK is not a guarantee, regardless of game size. There could easily be multiple factions, but a lone SK doesn't have to be one of them.

unvote
vote ythan

for reason stated by LL
btw she is 100% right about what she's talking about

Okay, I'm still not read up, but Nayru is NOT aquatic. She's a goddess, her race would reflect that. Oh, and

ythan is town

, please stop bein stupid.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Gandalf

[Kdub]

OK, I'll admit I've glossed over the details of Ythan/LLD/Cupcake's argument, but is there any case against Cupcake that

doesn't

involve flavor speculation? It's not conclusive evidence at all. Even if Nayru isn't aquatic in canon, then 1) why would scum-Cupcake even claim aquatic as part of the fakeclaim in the first place, and 2) there has been reasonable evidence presented of the possibility of Nayru actually being aquatic that accusing the claim of being fake on that basis becomes entirely a matter of outguessing the mods.

So is there any reason to suspect Cupcake based on behavior or anything other than speculation about her claim?

[Kdub]

@Kdub
Here's a case on Cupcake without any flavor speculaion in a nutshell. Add to this the fact she let LL do most of the defending. Yeah, I know, RL can be a bitch, but Katsuki (I don't know who the other head is) had an average post count of ten posts per day over the last week without any significant decrease on any given day, so why not pop in here and do the defending yourself?

Eh, I'm not really seeing it. The fact that most of the case on her has been the claim speculation and not her lack of defense and pushing the chess lynch indicates that behavior-wise, she hasn't acted particularly suspicious at least in comparison to some of the other players. I agree with you that the claim, whether fake or not, doesn't indicate anything about alignment, at least until we see some flips.

By the way, I BEG Chess not to suicide tonight. Like, please don't. BTW, what if I told you guys I could make it to where I was the only one vanillarized? Should I? I would say I'm a reasonably important PR, BTW.

What? You don't want chess to suicide, but then you ask if you should make it so that chess vanillaizes you (therefore suiciding)? Which is it?

[Kdub]

Dismissing evidence because it isn't absolute IS scummy in this game. We do the best we can and it is that way in every game. Not accepting evidence because it isn't 100% without actually doing anything about the argument is anti-town and suspect.

It's not a case of the evidence being 100% or not, and maybe "conclusive" was a bad word to use there. The problem is that the evidence is actually in reasonable doubt to the point where it may not be valid at all. If the mods took flavor from sources other than the one you believe they did, then the evidence is invalid. If scum have safeclaims, the evidence is invalid. Correct me if I am wrong, but so far I believe you have only argued that there is no evidence that they do have safeclaims, not that there is evidence that they do not have them (does that make sense?). It's not a matter of completely dismissing the evidence, it's a matter of looking at reasonable alternative explanations (other than Cupcake being scum with a botched claim) and deciding that they are plausible enough that I don't think the case is solid enough to justify a lynch.

Also, did you ever answer the question about what else the blue particles could be if not Nayru's Love?

By the way, I BEG Chess not to suicide tonight. Like, please don't. BTW, what if I told you guys I could make it to where I was the only one vanillarized? Should I? I would say I'm a reasonably important PR, BTW.

What? You don't want chess to suicide, but then you ask if you should make it so that chess vanillaizes you (therefore suiciding)? Which is it?

Gandalf, please respond to this. You can't use the hydra excuse because this was all in the same post.

Thanks for not providing any content.

(assuming I am talking to gandalf5166 here) Have you seen what your other head has been posting so far?

[Kdub]

I was unexpectedly V/LA the past couple days. I'll catch up and post later today.

[Kdub]

I'm getting a bit of a negative vibe from Ray. He's been more active and helpful in terms of making cases and pushing suspects than what I remember of his town play in the past. With that said, I agree with the Gandalf wagon. Being a hydra can explain some inconsistencies in opinion, but it shouldn't serve as an automatic excuse for poor play, e.g. post 1396.

Hindu, why don't you join Lady's wagon? She's more certainly scum than Cupcake and substrike are. They might be scummy but she is more.

Earlier in the game, you voted Cupcake (post 1063). From that point on, you don't really say much about LL, the only things you mention actually seem a bit positive (1138 - agreeing with her flavor speculation, 1405 - asking Fate why LL is scum). You then switched your vote to LL, claiming it would give more information and that she has been scummy. But what changed between your vote of Cupcake and your most recent post I quoted where you think LL is more scummy? Most of your points against LL had already happened when you voted Cupcake, so I don't understand the change of opinion.

BE on the other hand, has done nothing,

nothing

in this game, apart from follow others lead, and use other's posts as justification. First, sheeping Ythan in a flavour based attack on Cupcake and LLD. The latter of which seem like a townie very much enthused about the flavour, the former... slightly scummy for sitting back and letting LLD defend solo. Secondly, sheeping Fate for idk what reason, in voting me.

VOTE: BE

HoS: Fate

I still dislike how Fate's making a BS push on me, much like in Reck's Philly game. Unfortunately, the fact that he was town in that game, and made about the same level of case, leaves me puzzled.

Why didn't anyone comment on this?!

I think his stance on BE is inaccurate; there are several worse offenders of sheeping and the like. Reads as bullshit he had to make up. And...he's trying to pass suspicion on Fate for

following his town meta?!

I'm in disbelief by Chronopie's uselessness and avoidance of anything you could remotely call scumhunting.

I agree with this, remember I pointed out Chrono's original reasoning for voting BE was because he was just following Cupcake, who he thought was town. If that's not the definition of "sheeping", then I don't know what is. Now it looks like he's trying to dig up some reasons to justify his stance. I'd be in favor of a Chrono wagon as well.

[Kdub]

Vote: ZONEACE.

Clearly that is the best wagon.

Why is ZONACE scummy? He's posted almost nothing so far. I can see you getting on him for lurking, but it's not at all obvious why that makes him clearly scum.

It's less dismissing every reference to flavor and more saying we

LACK THE INFORMATION

necessary to make any real connections regarding the flavor we do have. It's worthless to speculate about flavor at this point when there's virtually no information to go off of in the first place - it's distracting and detracts from the actual scumhunting. Evidence: the MANY pages of noise generated from your push at cupcake where you reiterated the same argument over and over.

Seriously, this. There are plausible explanations for Cupcake's claimed flavor given what we know so far. Get over it.

The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning toward wanting to lynch Chrono over Gandalf. He is just as guilty of the same reasons he is voting BE for. When he gets back from V/LA, he's got some explaining to do.

[Kdub]

Chrono: Since you are accusing BE of being a sheep, please explain your behavior in post 753. If you remember, I asked you why you were voting for BE, and your response at the time was:

...followed the lead of a player I have a nominally town read on...

So why is BE scum for being a sheep when you have demonstrated pretty much the essence of being a sheep yourself?

DTM: Last game I played with Ray was Open 200. We were both town, but I thought he was scum and pushed for his lynch. My comment in this game was that he was acting much more proactive and scumhunting (prototypical "pro-town", if you will) than what I had remembered, so that's why I got a bit of a negative vibe from him.

Given that there are 2 days to the deadline and the current state of the vote count, Gandalf needs to give us a good reason not to lynch him, either a convincing claim or some other way to demonstrate his innocence, otherwise he is the lynch for today.

[Kdub]

The "nominally town read" post was Nik's #739

And I had already stated that BE was doing nothing but following others posts to make attacks, without original thought. I'd like to think I put in a

little

original thought before jumping on to a wagon.

Uh, 739 was DTM. I assume that's who you meant? And if you did put any original thought into your vote, why didn't you say what those thoughts were when asked about your vote later? Instead you just said you were following someone you had a town read on and left it at that.

Regarding Gandalf's claim, I think it's similar to chesskid's claim in that it seems like an anti-town ability that is potentially confirmable, but not quite as easily since we would need to out other PRs to confirm it. If he is telling the truth about his ability, it sounds more likely to be an SK power than that of a scum faction, otherwise that would be incredibly powerful. All in all, it's not a claim that should make us back off the wagon at this point in the day.

[Kdub]

Didn't realize the day had started. Reading D2 now, notes as I go along.

Neighbor claim is meaningless to me as far as alignment is concerned. Also, if one or more of the neighbors is scum, they could easily just have a sage safeclaim and not actually have the "unlock powers" mechanic associated with their role, so we should be careful about assuming how scum-neighbors would behave in terms of who to attack or not. Still dislike Chrono's play yesterday, and the claim does nothing to change my opinion.

BE's vote on Nik looks bad (voting a claimed mason?). This was before Ex's cop claim.

Exilon's claim: WIFOM on both sides here. At face value, I would disbelieve Ex because I can sort of see some scum motivation (wanting to get a claimed mason/PGO lynched, even if it means sacrificing himself), but the shift/sanity issues should be discussed until we've found out as much as we can. I agree with DTM's suggestion for Ex to test his ability today on one of the millers to check for sanity.

If there is a shift, I don't think we can know what direction or how many spots the shift is unless somebody is a dayvig (doubtful or they would have used it D1) or a day-rolecop or some other day role that can confirm a chosen target and an actual target. Also, do we have any reason to think a shift would carry over to today, or that it wouldn't change?

Nik: Not familiar with ozmodiar, can you explain?

Ythan: Played OoT several times before, but probably not for at least 5 years, so I've forgotten a few things. Always been a bigger fan of WW and TP, so I'm pretty familiar with LoZ in general.

[Kdub]

Beefster's plan sounds good to me so that we can at least try to figure out if there is any funny business going on today. Then we can talk about what to do with Exilon's ability.

VOTE: Kdub

First

off, Fate flipped SK, not scum. Slight difference, but a major one if you are arguing guilt by association.

I'm curious how you came to this conclusion since Fate's flip, as has been pointed out, doesn't say anything about SK.

1) Exilon is scum. LLD flips town, we lynch Exilon the next day (or he blames it on flavor spec/miller/etc.)
2) Exilon is town, LLD flips town, see above flavor spec, possibly caused by a shift to another person
3) Exilon is town, LLD is scum, tells us every "mason" is scum. Exilon, have you checked any of the other claimed masons? That'd pretty much resolve that...
4) Exilon is scum, LLD is scum, Exilon is busing the rest of team. (possible, not likely.)
5) Any other scenario I haven't thought of that someone else would like to bring up?

Could be multiple scum groups or 3rd party. All bets are off if that's the case. First things first, let's figure out if there is a shift today.

Also, I am tentatively going to

FoS: DTM

. I will explain at some point in the future if/when certain information is revealed.

[Kdub]

DTM:
There's a reason I said "at some point in the future". I don't think it's necessary to elaborate more at this point.

KDub:

You defend ZoneAce in ISO 14; what do you think of Diddin’s play?

I saw nothing that really stood out as suspicious. Now that I look back at him in iso, he was pushing the JABOC wagon early on, which looks OK given JABOC's flip. ZONEACE hasn't really done anything, so that's why I found it a bit strange at that point that Nik was voting him.

[Kdub]

UNVOTE:

Since we have established that there is no shift today, the next order of business is to figure out what's going on with Exilon/LL. Since Ex has already claimed, I think he should investigate one of the masons and reveal his result. If he gets an innocent, the masons are cleared and we know there was a shift yesterday that messed up his results. There is a slight possibility that Ex could be scum in this scenario, but there's not really a good reason for him to do so since the whole point of him fakeclaiming cop in the first place would be to get LL lynched, and an innocent result would clear LL regardless. If he gets a guilty, then we've narrowed today's lynch down to him or the masons.

[Kdub]

Wait, if there is a shift, shouldn't DTM's vote on Dekes (-13 from Reckamonic) have been removed in the last VC?

We need Beefster to come and clarify what happened.

[Kdub]

Hum.. lemme just get this straight then. Beefster tried several attacks which failed because they hit a person's wagon who didn't have a wagon, right?
The shift is according to the actual playlist (therefore, not counting dead players). Now, after some calculations, I have figured the shift (only 10 down is possible.)

So, I thought of aiming for Le Cupcake. For that, I have to aim for Chesskid, and if the mod counts, I'll be aiming at myself.
Substrike is a safer hit. since ten down does not cross the mod to hit him, I can aim for Chrnopie and I'll be hitting Substrike.
For Nikanor, I have to hit zwet, and if the mod counts, I'll be hitting DTM.

What do you think?

I think you should try to investigate one of the masons. As for whether the mod counts as a slot or not, can you PM the mod and ask about it to make sure?

If we are really going to go into this, there's a really simple explanation for it. There's still a twinrova alive or there is no twinrova role in this game. As the mods said they don't lie in role PMs, it can only be the first.

Or Chrono is lying scum and doesn't have any "powers" to unlock because he's not actually who he says he is. That's an even simpler explanation.

He is not scum you idiots. He is a neutral. Revive and we can kill him later.

I need him for scum hunting.

Explain this please.

[Kdub]

vezo:
Care to answer my question regarding your comment about Fate?

Nik:
What about the possibility that some of the sages may actually be a boss-scum with a sage safeclaim and access to the neighborhood? The only alternatives are that the sages are all town, or that at least one of the sage characters is scum even though that would seem to go against canonical alignment. The former is unlikely for balance reasons, and all the evidence from the flips and claims so far seems to suggest that the latter is not likely.

7. I just realized something: The frog is likely a day action therefore my original points are null unless X person knows what the shift is/is unaffected by the shift. :S. They were aiming elsewhere, the premise that they were aiming Exlion is slightly flawed. This is my paranoia getting to me now.

This is an interesting point. With a -10 shift, it means that whoever it was decided to actually target either nameloc or chesskid, depending on if the mod counts as a slot or not. Chesskid has claimed a one-shot suicide ability that we can force him to prove, so there's no reason any pro-town player would target him unless they really thought he was gambiting. And I don't see nameloc as a likely choice for that ability as well. Just something to think about.

At this point I'm almost willing to just out all of them and we can start lynching one by one. If you want to start with me, fine, but Chrono you need to do something about this shit starting tomorrow. Start with the person I was pointing the finger at in the QT, then work your way down the list.

Outing all of them without consulting with them first would be very anti-town.

[Kdub]

The post above mine is retarded.
If there is a scum neighbor they know who all the neighbors are :teach:

Point taken, though you're assuming that all scum groups have a member in the neighborhood. Also, if there are 3rd party roles, they won't know who the neighbors are unless they are in the neighborhood as well.

jmj:
Does your role PM specifically say that you are immune to the shift? Because a shift is not exactly the same thing as redirection (redirection implies an active ability). We don't know if the person responsible for the frog is anti-town or not, that's what I was trying to figure out.

Nikanor:
Any reason for your vote?

Substrike:
You are cleared as not being boss-scum, but that doesn't clear you from being scum from another faction. Also, at what point did you start finding BE scummy? In 2487, you seemed to indicate that he wasn't scummy, then in 2626, you were calling for BE to be investigated and vote him in your next post. What happened in between those two posts that changed your opinion on BE?

[Kdub]

This game's been sorta on the backburner for me, but I'll try to comment on the relevant points of discussion lately.

Kdub, I saw this, coupled with the fact that he's disappeared when the pressure on him increased. My read changed.

You have to look at it from my perspective... ok? A lot of people were attacking me when i came in guns blazing with a scum list, most of those people are still likely scum and have yet to explain themselves. So i point back to page 19, usually helps. it didn't this time sadly.

But my list was more likely first..... i do believe.

I follow Fate because he's Obviously town.

But BE said this way before you started questioning why people were finding him scummy. To me, it reads like you saw votes piling up on yourself, so you jumped on the next biggest wagon even though it was on someone who you had just defended.

Between the Substrike and BE wagons, I'd be more inclined to go with Substrike. I didn't like him very early on due to starting jester speculation, and his BE vote looks bad as mentioned above. Also, Chrono is still scummy for his hypocrisy yesterday when he was accusing BE of being a sheep. I'll VOTE: Substrike for now.

BE himself, I am unsure of. He did buddy with fate and attack LL, but I am uncomfortable with the size of the wagon that has built up on him without him being here to respond to it. The wagon seems a bit too easy IMO. Just looking at the votes on his wagon, I would point out Substrike, vezo, bunnylover, Chrono, and Albert's votes as being weak and/or hasty. I at least would like to give him a chance to respond, although with the deadline approaching, maybe there won't be a choice.

bunnylover-substrike connection is there as has been noted by others, but I'd like to see Substrike flip before drawing any further conclusions. bunnylover, I also take issue with your post 2783, where you say you were clear about wanting a GIS policy lynch on D1. Your posts seem more like "I don't like the GIS wagon but I wouldn't mind shotty out of the way, so I'll leave my vote there until a better wagon comes along." Seemed a bit non-committal, and certainly not "clear" as you claim it is now. Also, if you wanted a policy lynch to get rid of shotty, why are you not pushing for similar lynches of zwet and vezo, who are just as bad?

jmj is probably town. Not seeing a scum motivation for divulging as much info about his role as he did. Scum likely would have just kept quiet about it.

Out of time now, more tomorrow probably.

[Kdub]

Ray:
I disagree that the wagon on Substrike has been "easier" when I go and look at the votes on both wagons. I pointed out specific votes on BE that I felt were weak or poorly justified, and I don't feel there are as many on Substrike. Do you disagree with my assessment of those votes? As for the case on BE itself, the main points against him are his buddying with Fate and his LL vote. His LL vote came right after Exilon claimed a guilty on her, so to say that BE was tunneling on her, as some have claimed, doesn't tell the whole story. BE certainly was not the only player skeptical of the mason claim at the time. Buddying with Fate, yeah that's a valid point, but given the quality (or lack thereof) of the votes on his wagon, I suspect scum might be taking apparent connections between their dead partner and others not in their faction and pushing it. I'll go on record as saying that I had a town read on Fate yesterday as well. I was wrong, but if I had boldly declared Fate to be town yesterday, I'm pretty sure his scum partners would have taken the opportunity to jump on me as well. Bottom line is, there are some reasonable points against BE, but the way his wagon has formed makes me uneasy and reeks of scum pushing an "easy" lynch.

[Kdub]

Ray:
Albert is voting for BE, not sub. Dekes' vote is actually supported fairly well if you look at his iso. I'll agree with you about chesskid's vote, but is it really much different from the rest of his play so far this game?

You clearly didn't read my case on BE. The votes you pointed out (save beefster) were valid assessments, imo (BE wagon votes, I mean).

We're just going to have to disagree on this point then if you found them to be valid.

FOS: AKnottedRope

. Pulling your vote off one of the main wagons and putting it on an unviable one less than a day before the deadline. Also, can you give your opinion on the BE wagon? I noticed you haven't commented on him.

[Kdub]

Substrike22 [BETH],

Poe Cheating Even-Night Strongman

, killed N2
Nikanor [DIN],

Goddess Mason Non-Water Paranoid Gun Owner

, killed N2

It seems pretty obvious to me that Substrike targeted Nikanor last night. It's the only night action that makes sense given the deaths and flips we saw.

I'm not so sure the vanillaized players should claim. It informs the scum by telling them who not to target. Should we put it to a vote?

As far as the scum factions go, we know we have a "boss" faction and apparently a "poe" faction. In the game, there are 4 poe sisters, so there are probably 4 poe scum. Not counting the childhood bosses or Ganondorf, there are 5 bosses, one of which is Twinrova. Twinrova is certainly a boss and there is nothing special about them game flavor-wise, so I don't understand the talk of her being 3rd party or separate from the rest of the boss scum. Also, a pair of lovers as an SK without kill immunity seems impossible to win with, so I doubt it's a role. It wouldn't surprise me to see a "boss" scum faction of 5-6 players with two of them being lovers, and maybe some other disadvantages to make things balanced.

Going to reread Substrike later today.

[Kdub]

I took a look at the vote counts yesterday at the point where the lynch wagon shifted from Substrike onto BE:

nameloc1986 (3): "Fluffy", "Bridget", A Flying Pot
Substrike22 (9): ABR, AKnottedRope, Substrike22, RayFrost, Dekes, chesskid3, Lady Lambdadelta, Beefster, Nikanor
Blooderection (5): Le Cupcake, Blooderection, Ythan, nameloc1986, mothrax
Dekes (1): DTMaster
jmj3000 (1): zwetschenwasser
Exilon (1): Exilon
jenniwren (1): jenniwren

Not voting: jmj3000, ZONEACE, Aikage, KDub, Chronopie, Bunnylover

nameloc1986 (5): "Fluffy", "Bridget", A Flying Pot, Peahat, Tektite
Substrike22 (7): ABR, AKnottedRope, Dekes, chesskid3, Lady Lambdadelta, Beefster, Ythan
Blooderection (7): Le Cupcake, Blooderection, nameloc1986, mothrax, RayFrost, Substrike22, vezokpiraka
jmj3000 (1): zwetschenwasser
Exilon (1): Exilon
jenniwren (1): jenniwren
KDub (1): Nikanor
mothrax (1): DTMaster

Not voting: jmj3000, Aikage, KDub, Chronopie, Bunnylover

nameloc1986 (5): "Fluffy", "Bridget", A Flying Pot, Peahat, Tektite
Substrike22 (6): AKnottedRope, DGB, chesskid3, Lady Lambdadelta, Ythan, KDub
Blooderection (10): Le Cupcake, Blooderection, nameloc1986, mothrax, RayFrost, Substrike22, Nikanor, Chronopie, Beefster, Bunnylover, ABR
jmj3000 (1): zwetschenwasser
Exilon (1): Exilon
Knight of Cydonia (2): Knight of Cydonia, vezokpiraka
mothrax (1): DTMaster

Not voting: jmj3000, Aikage

Unconfirmed players who joined the BE wagon within this timeframe and stayed there: Chrono, Beefster, Bunnylover, Albert
^ I guarantee there is at least one (maybe more) poe-scum among those four players who jumped on BE to save Substrike.

Of those four, Beefster is the only one that actually left the Substrike wagon to join the BE wagon instead. The post where he switches to BE, he makes no attempt to hide the fact that he is doing a 180 on his opinion of Substrike. Aside from that, his ability is at least proven.

Bunny's BE vote right after that looks very opportunistic. One thing I noticed is that Bunny either said or implied several times that Exilon getting an innocent result of Substrike would clear him. This reads to me like Bunny knows Substrike is not boss-scum, and wants the boss-cop to investigate him because of the knowledge that he will get an innocent result.

I've been calling Chrono scummy for a while, and the Twinrova/unlocked sage powers discrepancy is easily explained if Chrono is simply lying about his role. To be fair, he was on BE for a while and didn't suddenly flip-flop like the other two.

I'm neutral on Albert. He joined the BE wagon a bit later than the others, after BE had clearly taken the vote lead, so he's less suspicious at the moment.

I'm down for either a Bunnylover or Chrono lynch today.

VOTE: Bunnylover
Feeling a little better about this at the moment.

[Kdub]

Kdub, you realized that I had no vote yesterday right?

I had forgotten that your vote didn't count yesterday, but it was still there for the purposes of giving the BE wagon momentum, especially coming right after Beefster's vote.

Were we 100 percent sure that another scum fractions were out their? No. Which means until something shows that they are in fact different scum fractions, I am not going to vote someone who is cleared by one of our investigation ones, assuming their are more then one.

Exilon was specifically a "boss-cop", which strongly implied the existence of more than one scum faction. It's a pretty natural assumption to make. You don't have to be 100% sure.

[Kdub]

Wait, didn't jmj claim responsibility for the frog yesterday? He's dead now, so there must be another player with the frog ability?

LL: As a result of the shift, Exilon targeted Chrono but actually investigated Substrike.

[Kdub]

Was away the past couple days, but I'll try to address various points:

DTM's case on Beefster seems reasonable, and I did note that Beefster was one of the players primarily responsible for pushing the BE lynch over Substrike yesterday. I'd be receptive to a Beefster lynch today in addition to bunny/Chrono, who are my other two suspects. The points in his favor are that his ability is proven, it fits his claimed flavor, and zwet has independently claimed miller-flavor that backs up his claim. If he is scum, he must have been specifically given the miller role as a safeclaim.

General question regarding the neighborhood: What do people think about having Chrono share with everybody the list of scum characters that need to die for various powers to be unsealed? Since the neighbors have already shared this information among themselves, then the poe scum already know this info because of Substrike, and if there is a boss scum in the neighborhood, they all know it as well. Having the rest of the town know which scum characters are in the game could provide information as to the structure of the scum team(s) and maybe shed light on the Twinrova thing.

Regarding nameloc, I don't think there is any danger right now of scum quickhammering, because they still need to eliminate each other and they would be outing themselves to the other team if they did so. We could direct zwet to target him tonight to get rid of him, which would also prove zwet's ability.

[Kdub]

Also, Gohma would fit in with the miller claims we've had so far as opposed to actual scum. If somebody out there is Gohma as a miller, I think they should come out and we will pretty much have one confirmed scum between them and Saria.

What about Ray? Morpha, I assume?

[Kdub]

Actually I just reread zwet and his claimed ability is passive. Scratch what I said about him.

[Kdub]

Bunny, what is your opinion of Beefster at the moment?

nameloc, am I correct in saying that there is NO way at all for you to remove the votes on you? If that is the case, I think at some point before lylo, you should full claim and voluntarily sacrifice yourself by targeting zwet at night. I don't think you need to do it just yet, but once we hit a few more scum, we can't afford to have a reduced lynch threshold. Are you willing to do so?

[Kdub]

I'm not comfortable with the Aikage wagon. Yes, he's brought it on himself with the softclaiming, but half the people voting him right now haven't said a word about him before today, now all of a sudden they want a claim. I am specifically pointing at mothrax, vezo, zwet, and Chrono here. All of you: why didn't you say anything about Aikage yesterday when he started talking about his role?

LL, here's a case on Bunnylover:
- Was in a key position on the BE wagon yesterday to swing the lynch to BE (town) instead of Substrike (scum)
- Vote on BE was opportunistic, coming immediately after Beefster's vote, and Bunny admits to just following off of Beefster's case and did not indicate any earlier suspicion of BE
- Wanted Exilon to investigate Substrike, implying several times that Substrike would be cleared if he got an innocent result. This looks to me like Bunny knows that Substrike is not boss-scum (because they are both poe-scum) and will turn up innocent if investigated.

Chrono has to be telling the truth about the seal-release characters or else the other neighbors would call him out immediately. I've thought about the possibilities a bit, and I don't think we have the numbers to rule out another scum in the neighborhood yet. There are still too many possibilities from a balance-standpoint.

[Kdub]

mothrax and zwet:
Can you respond to my last post? Why were you not asking Aikage for a claim yesterday when he started talking about his role?

I'm just shamelessly bandwagoning.

If this was your response, I wouldn't mind a zwet lynch either. I should also point out (now that it's ended) that the last time zwet claimed miller in LOTR mafia, he was scum. Interested to hear what Cupcake comes up with.

[Kdub]

Welcome to the game SensFan. Please address this point, which was directed to your predecessor:

nameloc, am I correct in saying that there is NO way at all for you to remove the votes on you? If that is the case, I think at some point before lylo, you should full claim and voluntarily sacrifice yourself by targeting zwet at night. I don't think you need to do it just yet, but once we hit a few more scum, we can't afford to have a reduced lynch threshold. Are you willing to do so?

Aikage's claim seems plausible. What is the "Anti-Sleeper" bit about though? And Aikage, did you give the same invention to Ythan that you gave to Fate N1? Is that even allowed by your role? If you didn't, what made you think that Ythan was town when you targeted him?

Well Aikage should use his second power to see what he tried to give Ythan. Maybe Ythan did get something, but he himself doesn't even know that he recieved something. Like maybe one of his invention is invisible or something, i don't know what his power can do or possesses.

The wording of Aikage's ability seems to imply that the target is told that they received the invention with some description. That means that since Ythan claims to not have received anything, there was either a redirection/roleblock, or one of Aikage/Ythan is lying.

Also, perhaps I'm biased because I think Bunnylover is scummy, but I'm reading this post as "Hey Aikage, use your other ability so that you don't give the town any useful powers tonight".

[Kdub]

Hmm, didn't notice that it was a day ability. But in that case, wouldn't the mod have told him that his action was invalid if he tried to submit it during the night? Aikage, can you clarify?

[Kdub]

Aikage, please answer the following:
1) Can you confirm with the mod whether your submitted actions were valid or not?
2) Can you give the same invention more than once? Your role PM isn't quite clear on this point.
3) Why did you think Ythan was town? What made you assume that Invention A would specifically kill scum instead of just killing anyone you targeted?

There doesn't seem to be much support for a Bunny or Chrono lynch, so I am receptive to a Beefster or zwet lynch today if that's where we're headed.

[Kdub]

vezo, weren't you just pushing for an Aikage lynch?

[Kdub]

Aikage, please respond to this.

i think deadlines is soon and i can vote whoeverr has more votes from these two, but tonight i am going to try and kill chronopoie ior morthraz

This is related to the questions I asked you in the post linked above, but how are you planning to kill anyone at night when your ability as claimed is a day action?

[Kdub]

1-i pmd reck each night and he nevber said anything to me. i can ask him though but i dont understand what you mean by valid? im an inventor so i used valid actions? i dont get it what you mean

Yes, I am asking you if you can check with the mod to see if your actions on N1 and N2 were received and processed.

2-yea i can i gave invention a both times

"Both" times? As in, you can give an invention twice, but not more than that? Your role PM says nothing about this, how do you know?

3-i though invention a was bomb at first that killed people, but then when ythan didnt die i thought maybe it only makes people kill themselves if thye are killer. like a mirror shield and fate shott himself and ythan cant shot so he didnt die.

Here's my problem with this:
You target Fate N1 (ignore the day/night ability thing for the moment). Fate died. Your conclusion? "I killed Fate."
You target Ythan N2 with the same ability. Ythan doesn't die. I think any reasonable person would consider things like a roleblock, protection/immunity, or even the possibility that their N1 action wasn't responsible for Fate's death at all. Yet, you somehow made the leap to the conclusion, "Ythan is town" using the logic quoted above. That seems like convoluted logic to follow.

Your claim, as posted, seems believable on its own, but there are enough questions and discrepancies that have arisen that I think you need to confirm your ability today.

[Kdub]

ok dram pm'd me and i feel relly dumb. it turns out that when we are voting and posting is called 'day' and that is when i'm supposed to give my inventiosn to people...

he told me that the ones i had sent in at night didnt do anything so far. he said at night i look for what my inventions do and thats all i can do at night.

so i should use my invention today before we lynch someone. since everyone is calling me newb and calling me stupid, though i agree i cant believe i didnt realize the difference between night and day actions, im leavin it up to you to cecide who i give it to. and then tht night ill find out which one i gave away and what it does do.

i still say akr or mothrax should get my invention in case it is a goron bomb and kills them still.

This is dumb. You want to give an invention to certain people because it might kill them, but you just said that your earlier actions did not count. That means

you didn't kill Fate

. If your role truly is pro-town, it's more than likely you will give your target some beneficial power. I think you need to give an invention to someone you think is town, then have them confirm that they received it. I had just realized that they won't receive it until twilight, but that still allows them to confirm it tomorrow.

[Kdub]

Ihmo Kdub: Aikage's invention will go haywire and be shifted. I'd rather have Aikage give an invention and then the person who received claim it if you really, really want to role confirm him

That is what I just suggested. Since the person doesn't receive the invention until twilight, they won't be able to confirm until tomorrow though.

[Kdub]

Mod: Vote count please

Based on the general sentiments of people at the moment, these are the viable lynches given that the deadline is less than a day away: Aikage, Beefster, AKR, DGB, KoC. Of those players, there are less complications involved with Aikage and Beefster since they have claimed already. If we wagon someone else, I don't think there is time to get a claim, analyze it, and then possibly switch to an alternate lynch before the deadline. Beefster is the player I am most willing to lynch among those five anyway, so I'll put my vote there.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Beefster

I would be willing to lynch DGB. KOC and AKR, I haven't seen what people are finding scummy about them, but I may have just missed/forgotten what people have said about them.

Can we please not let Bunny live past tomorrow?

[Kdub]

LL: No, I was referring to the bolded:

I would be willing to lynch

DGB. KOC and AKR,

I haven't seen what people are finding scummy about them

, but I may have just missed/forgotten what people have said about them.

Doesn't matter who Bunny would have named there.

[Kdub]

Beefster:
Did you read the first part of the post you quoted? I'd be down for a Bunny lynch, but it's going to be almost impossible to get 9 votes together in a day given that only a couple others have indicated any suspicion.

Right now, the best candidates are you and Aikage both because there appears to be sufficient support, and because you have claimed and people have accounted for that already. If we wagon anybody else, we need to be prepared to lynch them

regardless of their claim

.

[Kdub]

I'll be around until deadline so if the Beefster wagon isn't going anywhere, I'll switch to Aikage or KoC to prevent a no lynch.

[Kdub]

Just under 3 hours to deadline. The only viable lynches at this point are Aikage and KoC. Anyone who is not voting one of them needs to switch now.

I prefer an Aikage lynch at this point due to some of the strangeness with his claim, and I'm not really seeing the KoC case at the moment. I'll be back before the deadline and switch if he's the leading wagon though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Aikage

[Kdub]

Alright, KoC it is then.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vote: KoC

That should be the hammer.

[Kdub]

Crazy setup. Nice work DTM, you definitely won it for us.

Any plans for a Wind Waker or Twilight Princess Mafia?

[Kdub]

Yeah there was luck involved in DTM pulling out the win, but I think with everything that was going on in the game, you could have made that argument no matter who won.

[Kdub]

BTW this is the biggest game in the history of MS, at least for the moment.

[Kdub]

"Most Ambitious Setup" would be a good description.