I sympathise with my predecessor's lack of interest in the D0 discussion, because it is pretty impenetrable, and if I were scum here, I'd probably just argue my real opinions about which scum roles were best for town, so I think trying to figure out alignments based on those arguments is pretty futile. So forgive me if I overlook something significant in that phase.
(Zito did some really dumb stuff later on that made me facepalm, however)
DrippingGoofball
Post #286 - DGB's infamous gambit. Her explanation of what exactly she was looking for reaction-wise makes sense to me, and I don't particularly see what she'd get out of doing this as scum. I know most people, even those who think DGB is town, have decried this gambit as anti-town, but I'm not sure I agree. In the long run, I think the decision of which power roles we gave to scum will have an absolutely miniscule effect on the outcome of the game, considering that in all possible scenarios, we would know what we were dealing with, so I'm wildly indifferent to the fact that DGB unintentionally caused the janitor selection, and I think there is genuinely useful information to be gleaned from the reactions she generated.
Post #346: Concerned about this. Not because there's anything wrong with the post itself - she's right that zor's attitude here is anti-town at best - but because it doesn't stack up at all with
Post #296, where Rhinox makes essentially the same post as zor, and DGB has no such negative reaction.
Post #526 & #527: Huge cognitive dissonance in DGB suggesting that zor is a tunneling townie being exploited while continuing to vote zor, and apparently never wavering in her insistence that he is scum.
Post #695: I don't like this vote, because there was still an equal chance of a zor wagon taking off at this point, which according to
Post #606 would be a dream come true for DGB. (This post, note, comes AFTER the above "exploited townie" posts). There is nothing natural about this shift in opinion on zor.
Post #761: Wait what? This is the same tajo and Amished who were exploiting a tunneling townie (who was actually obvscum, until he wasn't). Like, I know DGB has a reputation for being incomprehensible, but seriously... what?
Besides continuing the impressive lack of natural progression in her reads, there is no reason I can think of for town to make this post.
Post #879: But of course, if Vas is town, he would still an irresistable target for scum votes, no? This post bothers me, because it seems like it is designed to subtly implant the idea in everyone's minds that not voting Vas is a town tell, without having to sully herself with actually defending him. That seems like a much better position for a partner of Vas to be in than either bussing OR defending her buddy.
Post #904: Compare and contrast with
Post #826. There's a world of difference between "Elmo is town" and "Lynching Elmo is a bad play regardless of his alignment", which would be my respective interpretations of "I got my Elmo love back" and "mith is right" here.
Post #962: Seraph's scenario is absurd, no doubt. I'm not seeing how that equates to Seraphscum though. I mean, it's clearly born of frustration more than anything else - it's so obviously implausible that I can't see Seraph cooking it up and expecting it to convince anyone without being blinded by his frustration at the resistance to Vas being lynch. And in my experience it's far more likely that that frustration would stem from town who thinks they've caught scum than from scum who just can't get that mislynch going. Because there's always plenty of other mislynches around, but there's rarely an overabundance of obvscum.
Post #1161: Compare and contrast with
Post #1060. If the ignorance is clearly not fake, then what makes it so scummy that votes need no further explanation?
Post #1180: Yeah, so, this and her inexplicable hop on the Hoopla wagon remind me powerfully of roflcopter's scum play in the last /in-vitational I played - pick a scummy-looking townie, push against them whenever the opportunity arises, but always find a convenient excuse to lynch someone else by the end of the day so you still have that scummy-looking townie to fall back on. rofl did it with Kmd there, and I'm pretty sure DGB tried to do it with zor here.
ekiM
Post #602: OK, his unvote on Hoopla gives me good vibes. I think scum-ekiM would have had no trouble coasting on that one at the time, and his reasoning feels genuine.
Post #603: This would be a much more worthwhile question if tajo had been town in that game, I think, but I like where he's coming from nonetheless.
Post #850: Yes yes yes. This is righteous :goodposting:.
Post #1110: Huh. I would definitely like to see further elaboration on what exactly DGB said that made sense and changed your mind, ekiM.
I would also like further elaboration of ekiM opinions in general, actually, because he's looking pretty under the radar so far. Decidedly lacking in commentary on players who haven't been major wagons.
Ellibereth
Post #33: Heh, me too. Though they couldn't give more than two of the same role, so it couldn't happen.
Post #458: This is both true and not something scumElli would have a lot of motivation to point out.
Post #702: Hmm. At first this struck me as obviously town, because I figured that since scum used the Janitor, they obviously hadn't picked up on Hoopla's intentions, so when Elli recognises that Hoopla is delberately drawing the lynch, logically, this must come from town. But then I wonder if this might actually be a pretty likely post from scum who DID pick up on Hoopla's breadcrumb, but didn't realise that the town would find it so convincing. He is, after all, espousing the idea that scum would want to sacrifice a member just to cause a little confusion here, which means it must not have occured to him how ridiculous that is. Also noting that he's been eerily silent on the matter since Hoopla made her big reveal.
Post #752: Does anybody know why Elli was voting ekiM for most of D2? Does anyone remember him making any attempt to actually get this lynch to happen?
Post #912: Really, with
how frequently Elli keeps on bringing up tajo's suspicions, I am finding it hard not to suspect that he made that kill so that he could pursue this line of thought. It's like the only thing he talks about on D2.
Post #956: Oh, besides randomly declaring Vas to be town, even though he was on tajo's shortlist. Whut.
Post #1227: Strongly dislike this "I bet zor is town" after doing shit all to prevent his lynch. It's just tacky.
Basically, everyone who is getting on Vas's case for being worthless should take the time to read Elli in iso and see if you like what you find there. His D2 play was appalling.
Kmd4390
Confirmed tracker, not going to waste my time analysing his posts.
mith
Post #430: The fact that he argues against the popular case against one of his top suspects is a point in mith's favour, I think. If we was looking for a mislynch here, that would be a pretty counterintuitive move.
Post #690: I thoroughly enjoy the browbeating here. I don't think it's particularly indicative of alignment, but I do enjoy it.
Post #754: This super town read on Hero, and particularly the fact that it contradicts
#744 where mith agrees with Hoopla's suspicion on Hero, definitely seems more likely to come from town mith to me.
Yeah, there's nothing scummy here. mith is a damn good player, I know, but I think if he was scum there'd be something somewhere that felt off, even something I could put my finger on, and there just isn't.
My Milked Eek/Saint Kerrigan/My Milked Eek
Post #451: I really don't see scum making this post. If this is feigned ignorance, then I have to say that MME is an impressive actor.
Post #861: The thoughts on Seraphim here just strike me as genuine.
Post #941: And the further elaboration here, too. I'm not sure I find the case convincing, but I sure as hell believe that Kerrigan does.
That's all. I hope MME gets his head in the game soon (or out of entirely to be replaced by someone else who can get their head in the game), because he's clearly town, but he's really not doing a lot to help as of yet.
ooba
Post #866: I like his point about Vas not following up on his questions a lot.
Post #1236: This is odd, because I really don't see mith/DGB as bussing. DGB is scum, sure. mith is scum, well, if you're having the same failure of comprehension as Kmd I can see how you might think this. But the two of them together? Not seeing it.
I... really don't have a lot to say about ooba. There's nothing much that sticks out either way to me. I think he's likely town, because there's enough genuinely scummy players out there to make a full scum team and then some, but it would be nice to have something that really cemented that read.
Plumegranate
Post #668: Lotta good stuff in here. Denying the zor 'slip' is good times, the rambling second paragraph looks like a genuine thought process to me, this sentence here: "Not sure yet how to tell when shameless self-declared sheeping is a scumtell, though." also strikes me as powerfully town.
Post #734: Liking her point on ekiM here.
Post #834: The particular wording of "Vig shoots Elmo tonight is obv the best plan." seems highly unlikely to come from scum, who would know that Elmo was vig.
Post #922: First paragraph here is another bit that reads as highly genuine to me.
So yeah, on the whole, I would be very very surprised if Palumporom here turned out to be scum. Strongest town read (besides Kmd, obv).
Rhinox
Post #293: Pretty damn horrible. Both the idea in itself and the wording of this post are super scummy to me. "I'm just going to tunnel on you until one of us is dead
based on the idea
that this was a scum gambit designed to influence which roles the town gave to scum." That's not the way that someone who actually believed in what he was saying would word that post, I don't think.
Post #649: Yeesh, to all of this. Yeah, you didn't say tajo's list was random, you said it was no better than random. Spyrex points out exactly why this is scummy and just gets a meaningless buzzword in response.
"I'm not seeing why zoraster is earning votes, but maybe I've missed that part of the thread." - Wouldn't your first instinct as a townie, faced with someone receiving a significant number of votes that you don't understand, be to maybe try to find out a reason for those votes? Maybe read the part of the thread that you somehow missed, maybe ask the voters for their reasons? Not so Rhinox, he seems to be content to just let it be.
Post #682: "The misrep is that you are arguing that I'm trying to discredit tajo's list by comparing it to a list of 6 random names."
Yeah, I mean that's totally not wh-
"I don't know if you meant this as a joke or serious, but you realize that mathematically, if you pick any random 6 people in a 20 player game in which there are 4 scum, there is an 80% chance that at least 1 of those 6 players are scum.
Unless you feel being prodded is a scum tell, you might as well have picked 6 names at random.
"
OK, but maybe-
"ok Spy, humor me then. Why is Tajo's list better than a list of 6 random names?"
Yeah, no. I got nothing.
Post #842: Wooow, this reaction to Hero's "I saw Hoop's breadcrumb" post is just awful. Like seriously, "I think you're town for now, but thats what scum you wants me to think, right?" Why would you ever say this as town?
Post #880: Imagine for a moment that you are Rhinox, and you are scum with DGB and Vas. Would you be able to resist making this post?
Post #929: Given that the answer to "what changed?" is both obvious, and stated clearly in the post where ooba voted Vas, this is a pretty horrible excuse for a wagon.
Post #1000: Is that an "ooba is scum no matter what Vas flips" post? I think it is. Oh boy.
Post #1046: This 'circumstantial evidence' business gives me the shivers. It's real "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain" stuff, he's downplaying the importance of the argument a lot, trying to put it beyond scrutiny by saying that it's just a curiosity that he'll be "interested to see if it's valid in the postgame", but he never actually gets to the point of saying that it's not valid.
Slicey/Seraphim
Post #568: That's not what an appeal to emotion is, Seraphim.
Post #692: This post gives me a bad feeling. Overexplaining yourself in this way is a symptom of scum being overly concerned about appearing consistent.
Post #730: This also does not feel like a town reaction to Hoopla's revelation. He doesn't seem surprised to learn that Hoopla had some kind of cunning plan going on so much as he seems relieved to have an answer to the puzzle of what Hoopla's cunning plan is.
Post #938: Seraph finally stops tunneling on Vas for a second to discuss other scum. What exactly makes the idea of a DGB/Vas/Rhinox team ridiculous? The fact that they're being too obvious about it? I invite you to take a look at the scum play in
/in-vitational 4.
Post #950: I was liking this post a lot until I get to the end. "I don't see how you've proven that I'm scum."?? Well, no shit. You don't make cases to empirically
prove
that someone is scum, and you also don't make cases expecting to convince the person you are making the case against. This just seems like an incredibly weird thing for a townie to say.
Post #953: No, what? "You have done X, Y and Z scummy actions, therefore I think you're scum" "But you haven't connected those actions!!" The connection is that they are all scummy, ergo you are scum. I mean, this is really basic stuff, isn't it? It's not just me?
Post #963: Oh hey, Seraphim can actually react to things in a way that seems genuine. Good to know.
Post #967: This is really lame dirt-flinging. If you wanted to pursue that as a point against DGB, you'd have done it D1.
Post #1196: I do believe that Seraph is having the same failure of comprehension as Kmd on this one. Unlike with DGB, I think that by the he made this vote, it was clear that the supposed slip from mith wasn't going to draw in enough townies to be worth exploiting for scum, so I don't think Seraphscum would have any reason to feign this misunderstanding.
SpyreX
Post #545: Liking any and all parts of this post. Well, the parts that I understand, anyway. I've got no idea what the color coded vote counts are about or how they make Zito town. I don't have a problem with that conclusion, obviously, I just have no idea where it came from.
Post #562: Oh, OK. That makes sense.
Yeah, Spy's town. I'm not going to bother pointing out every individual post that makes me think this, but basically anyone who pursues Rhinox with this much vigour despite a whole lot of indifference gets in my good books. He loses track of this when Vas earns his ire, but that's totally understandable, because Vas is playing like he has been mechanically engineered to earn SpyreX's ire.
VasudeVa
Post #81: For once I'm not going to skip past the D0 stuff, because I want everyone to take a look at the well reasoned and articulate posts he made in that phase and see how well it fits in with the LOL VI behaviour he's been displaying since... well, since people started calling him a VI. This is strong evidence to suggest that mith is totally on the money on this one, I think.
Post #414: And again, even in the early parts of D1, Vas was really not playing to the meta that he'd later be excused with.
Post #553: I'm impressed with the incredible vagueness of this accusation.
Post #576: I'm also impressed with the ridiculous hair splitting here. "I'm not talking about you, I'm talking about
your case
!" WTF is the difference?
Post #579: This post I actually like. I think that would be a very reasonable theory for someone who was convinced that Hoopla was scum to come out with.
Post #626: This I agree with too. Even if Vas is scum, I don't think it's likely that his behaviour stems from scumbuddy coaching. It seems pretty clear to me that this is a concious choice that Vas has made by himself, while his hypothetical scumbuddies shrugged and let him get on with it since it seems to be working for him. I think the whole coaching thing is a pretty big red herring.
Post #676: And then Vas pisses the goodwill away by coming out with an even more ridiculous theory about coaching. Short of literally writing your posts for you, which I can't imagine anyone being willing to do or have done for them, there's really a pretty negligible amount that coaching could actually do to help you avoid being wagoned.
Post #801: So here are all those questions that Vas never bothers to follow up on, thus indicating that he doesn't actually care about the answers. Well spotted, ooba.
Post #836: This post contains a tacit admission that Vas was not trying to be useful before, which belies his repeated cries of "But I AM scumhunting!"
Post #927: This post throws me off. I do believe that Vas is telling the truth when he says that he'd thought of Palumporom's point about the potential for viging before, but didn't want to bring it up himself because it would get shot down with WIFOM bullshit. That reads as genuine for sure. In itself, that's not alignment indicative, because Vas would have just as much interest in seeing that point raised taken seriously regardless of his alignment. BUT: if scumVas wanted someone else to present that thought, he has an obvious avenue to affect that, and given all the 'coaching' and 'daytalking' posts he made earlier, I struggle to believe that he wouldn't think of that avenue. And I really don't think Palumporom is his scumbuddy. Hmm.
Zorblag/AdumbroDeus
Post #440: iam finds it bothersome that Troll concludes that he no would have problem with a DGB lynch and indeed votes for DGB at the end of this post even though Troll clearly states the he no has problem seeing DGB pulling her gambit as town, and he no has any other points against her that aren't related to her gambit.
Post #482: iam also finds it bothersome that Troll seems to no be against any of the wagons that were going on on D1. It look like Troll be hedging his bets to iam.
A SPECTRUM
Kmd
Palumporom
MME
SpyreX
mith
ooba
ekiM
Adumbro
Vas
Seraphim
Elli
DGB
Rhinox
But also; DGB/Rhinox pairing is so strong that a town flip on one would probably cause a drastic change of opinion on the other. And a scum flip from both would move Vas right to the bottom of the list. Seraphscum is mutually exclusive with both Vas and DGB scum (and so pretty much Rhinox scum too, by extension).
VOTE: Rhinox
)
And I recall Spyrex gunning pretty hard for him.
)
Those weren't in vogue since bell-bottom jeans.